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Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Brief Thoughts About the Start of the Second Round

The second round of the playoffs is off to a rousing start, with three of the four underdogs winning on the road in game one. Only the Golden State Warriors held serve, routing the Memphis Grizzlies 101-86 as 2015 MVP Stephen Curry scored a game-high 22 points. The Warriors likely would have made short work of the Grizzlies in this series even if Memphis' starting point guard Mike Conley were not injured but without Conley the Grizzlies have little chance of winning. The Grizzlies lack outside shooting, which means that the good and smart teams will pack the paint against them in the playoffs and Memphis will struggle to score 90 points.

In my second round preview, I said that the Washington Wizards might steal home court advantage but that the Atlanta Hawks would ultimately win the series. Washington indeed won game one in Atlanta. I still think that the Hawks are the better team and expect that they will figure out the Wizards over the course of six or seven games.

LeBron James had one of his classic good/bad playoff games, authoring the type of performance that has long baffled me. The good part is that he nearly had a triple double (19 points, game-high 15 rebounds, game-high nine assists)--but the bad part is that he shot just 9-22 from the field, that he committed a game-high six turnovers and that he disappeared in the fourth quarter with the game on the line when his team needed him most. James is one of the greatest scorers in pro basketball history, ranking third in the league this season (25.3 ppg) and fourth all-time (27.4 ppg). With Kevin Love sidelined by a season-ending shoulder injury, the Cavs needed for James not only to produce at his normal 25-27 ppg level but to increase that production to 30 points or more. Indeed, if James had scored 27 points--all other things being equal--the Cavs would have won by one point instead of losing 99-92 to the Chicago Bulls.

James has the necessary physical abilities, basketball skill set and understanding of the game to be the greatest player of all-time--but he is not the greatest player of all-time. He has won two championships and done some great things but far too often in the biggest moments he seems to hesitate or shrink. How many times did he drive to the hoop against Chicago only to pass the ball outside to lesser players who had to take more difficult shots? In one of his late game turnovers, James drove into the lane, jumped into the air, spun away from the basket and threw the ball away. Why not go all the way to the hoop or at least take a confident midrange jump shot? Passing the ball in such situations is not unselfish and does not make him a pass-first player; his team needed him to be a big-time scorer and he shrunk from the moment. It is sometimes very frustrating to watch James play, because he just lacks something that Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and the other greatest of the greats had. I write all of this fully realizing that James can and possibly will drop 50 points in the next game--and if he does that in the effortless way that he has in the past, it proves my point: James is the best player in the world but sometimes he does not want to be the best player and carry that load.

The L.A. Clippers' 117-101 win over the Houston Rockets was very entertaining on many levels. All we heard before the game was that the Clippers have no chance without Chris Paul because the Clippers cannot even create a shot without him. That is what the "advanced basketball statistics" apparently say. The reality is that Paul is a very good player but he is also overrated. The Clippers' best player is Blake Griffin, who dominated the San Antonio Spurs in the first round as the Clippers beat the defending champions. Without Paul, the supposedly inept Clippers put six players in double figures, including three who scored at least 20 points each. Griffin produced his second straight triple double (26 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists). He put his stamp on this game the way that an MVP caliber player should. Griffin joined Wilt Chamberlain and John Havlicek as the third non-guard to post back to back triple doubles in the playoffs (Chamberlain accomplished this twice). Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Baron Davis and Griffin are the only players who notched back to back 20 point triple doubles in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Houston's James Harden--who finished second to Curry in the MVP voting--fumbled the ball all over the court (a game-high nine turnovers). Harden shot 3-9 from the field and had eight turnovers in half court sets. Lo and behold, if you do not foul Harden and do not let him shoot open three pointers he is not particularly efficient! Harden's plus/minus number (-22) was the second worst of any player on either team, trailing only his backcourt mate Jason Terry (-23).

Broad conclusions should not be drawn from one game; we know that the Clippers are better with Paul than without him--but we also know that, for all of Paul's accolades, he has never led a team past the second round. Similarly, we know that Harden is not as terrible as he looked--but we also know that he has a pattern of performing poorly in the playoffs and that in his first two years in Houston he could not get the Rockets launched past the first round. This year, Dwight Howard reasserted himself as a dominant player and guided the Rockets to uncharted second round territory but the Clippers countered his inside dominance by bombing away from outside (13-31 three point shooting) and exploiting Houston's turnovers to score in transition before he could get back on defense to protect the paint.

I realize that I may be fighting a losing battle in terms of trying to convince people of the truth about Paul and Harden, just like many people did not appreciate my takes on Carmelo Anthony and Gilbert Arenas a few years back--but the reality is that Anthony and Arenas never were players who could lead a team to a title and neither are Paul and Harden. With Paul, the problem is less skill set/desire and more just a function of barely being six feet tall, but it is an inescapable reality that very few players possess the necessary physical and mental traits to lead a team to a championship. I am not overreacting to one game; I am using what happened in one game to illustrate and explain the basis for analyses that I have made about various players for many years.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:49 PM

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Sunday, May 03, 2015

How Will Cavs Fare Without Love?

LeBron James returned to Cleveland to form a younger version of the Big Three that he, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh created in Miami while leading the Heat to four straight NBA Finals and back to back titles. James hoped to help Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love learn how to use their individual skills to bring Cleveland the city's first professional sports championship since 1964. After a rocky start to the regular season, the Cavs claimed the second seed in the Eastern Conference and swept the Boston Celtics in the first round--but Love suffered a season-ending dislocated shoulder in the fourth game.

In my newest article at The Roar I examine how Love's injury will affect the Cavs:

How Will Cavs Fare Without Love?

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:41 PM

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First Round Recap/Second Round Preview

I correctly predicted the outcome of just four of the eight first round playoff series, which means I have already been wrong about more series in 2015 than I missed during the entire 2014 playoffs, when I went 13-2.

For the second year in a row, I underestimated the Washington Wizards and predicted that they would lose in the first round. The Wizards once again face the top seeded team in the second round. Last year, they won game one at Indiana before losing the series in six games. I expect a similar outcome this year versus the Atlanta Hawks: the Wizards will be competitive and may even temporarily swipe home court advantage but the Hawks will prevail because Atlanta's blend of four All-Stars plus several potent role players will prove to be more effective and consistent than Washington's explosive young backcourt/crafty veteran frontcourt.

The Cleveland Cavaliers face the Chicago Bulls in the other Eastern Conference second round matchup. When LeBron James returned to Cleveland last summer, he vowed to bring the city its first professional sports championship since 1964. He joined with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to form a younger version of the Big Three that led Miami to four straight Finals and back to back titles. Not everything went smoothly; rookie Coach David Blatt looked overwhelmed at times, starting center Anderson Varejao succumbed to yet another season-ending injury (he has played at least 65 games just once in the past five years) and the chemistry between James and Love looked very poor from the outset. Then, James went into "chill" mode on the court before electing to miss eight straight games, during which the Cavs went 1-7 and could not even beat the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, a team actively trying to tank. The Cavs dropped to 19-20 after a 107-100 loss at Phoenix in James' first game back and they seemed to be going nowhere fast but then the Cavs won 12 straight games as James reasserted his status as the sport's best and most complete player. The Cavs finished with the second best record in the Eastern Conference and looked like legitimate championship contenders heading into the playoffs. In addition to James' stellar play, the Cavs were also boosted by midseason trades that added starting center Timofey Mozgov, starting shooting guard J.R. Smith and reserve guard Iman Shumpert to the rotation.

The Cavs won each game of their first round sweep of the Boston Celtics by at least eight points but Love suffered a season-ending dislocated shoulder in game four. Love has been much maligned throughout the season as his individual numbers plummeted from the All-NBA level figures that he posted as the best player on a horrible Minnesota team but he played a critical role in Cleveland's success. Love led the Cavs in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and defensive rebounding (7.9 dprg) while also ranking second on the team in three point field goals made (144) and third on the team in scoring (16.4 ppg); he spreads the floor on offense and even though he is a below average one on one defender he is a very capable defensive rebounder and his outlet passes ignite fastbreak opportunities. The Cavs went just 3-4 without Love during the regular season. The Cavs won three of their four regular season games versus Chicago but the one game that they lost is a game that Love missed.

J.R. Smith will miss the first two games of the Chicago series because the NBA suspended him for a cheap shot that he delivered to Boston's Jae Crowder in the fourth and final game of that series. Considering Smith's history as a cheap shot artist and the fact that he elbowed Crowder in the head, Smith is fortunate that he was only suspended for two games. Losing Smith for two games due to him being a knucklehead should not surprise anyone and is a factor that has to be considered when predicting Cleveland's playoff chances. Guys like Smith will take ill-advised shots, commit stupid fouls/turnovers and/or get suspended. Love's injury is beyond Cleveland's control but Smith's absence is the cost of doing business with him; as I said last year after Zach Randolph was suspended for game seven versus Oklahoma City after throwing a punch in game six, "Part of predicting the outcome of a playoff series is making a judgment about which team's stars are more consistently productive and reliable." Randolph is talented but he has always had knucklehead tendencies and the same is true of Smith.

The Chicago Bulls have excellent personnel and excellent coaching but something seems to be missing from the mix. The Bulls advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2011, Coach Tom Thibodeau's first year with the franchise, but since then injuries and a lack of offensive punch have led to first round eliminations in two of the past three seasons. A raw Milwaukee team pushed the Bulls to six games in the first round. Even with Love on the shelf and Smith unavailable for two games, I do not see Chicago beating Cleveland--unless James enters "chill" mode.

Meanwhile, in the Western Conference the 67-15 Golden State Warriors swept the overmatched New Orleans Pelicans, while the Memphis Grizzlies defeated the Portland Trailblazers 4-1. Golden State won the regular season series with Memphis, 2-1. Even if Memphis' starting point guard Mike Conley had not suffered a facial fracture that may force him to sit out the series, I would still take Golden State; the Warriors have a well-balanced team, while the Grizzlies' lack of outside shooting will enable the Warriors to pack the paint against Memphis' big men.

The series between the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs and the potential heirs to the throne L.A. Clippers went the distance before the Clippers won an epic, thrilling game seven at home, 111-109. I generally do not like in the moment declarations that often lack true historical context but I have been following the NBA since I was a kid in the 1970s and this was one of the best played, most exciting seventh games I have ever seen. The Spurs did not lose the game but rather the Clippers won it, with both teams performing at a high level. Chris Paul's heroics on a gimpy hamstring (team-high 27 points, including the game-winning shot with one second left) deserve praise--and his resume needs some signature playoff moments considering that he has yet to advance past the second round-- but it is worth noting that Blake Griffin authored his second triple double of the series (24 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists) and he was the best player on the court, as he has been throughout the series (24.1 ppg, 13.1 rpg, 7.4 apg).

The Dallas Mavericks entered the first round with at least the remnants of a championship pedigree dating back to their title run four years ago, headlined by 2011 Finals MVP Dirk Nowitzki and including starting center Tyson Chandler and sparkplug guard J.J. Barea. They added Rajon Rondo, a key contributor to Boston's 2008 championship, via midseason trade but Rondo never clicked with Coach Rick Carlisle or with his new teammates. I still thought that the veteran Mavericks could pull it together enough to beat a Houston team that had not advanced past the first round since 2009. Instead, Dallas' key offseason acquisition Chandler Parsons suffered a season-ending injury in the first game of the series, Rondo melted down before being exiled sans a playoff share and Houston won, 4-1. I expected better defense from Dallas, worse shooting from James Harden and some effort from Rondo. I did not expect Dwight Howard to enter a time machine and reemerge as Dwight Howard version 2009.

What should we make of the Rockets now? When the Rockets acquired Harden three years ago, I compared him to Manu Ginobili and asserted that he is good enough to make the All-Star team more than once but not good enough to be the best player on a championship team. After Harden made the All-NBA Third Team in 2013 and the All-NBA First Team in 2014, I reiterated my thoughts and expectations about Harden:

I never said that Harden is a bad player. He is a good player; he just is not an elite or "foundational" player. If Manu Ginobili had left the Spurs early in his career he probably could have scored 25 ppg, made several All-Star teams and received some All-NBA selections--but Ginobili never was an elite player and neither is Harden. Ginobili elected to take less money, stay in San Antonio and fill a major role on a championship team behind Tim Duncan and Tony Parker; Harden chose to seek more money and, in his opinion, more glory. It will be interesting to see how that works out for Harden, Morey and the Rockets.

This is what I wrote about Harden after Houston's first round loss last year:

Speaking of unreliable, James Harden could be a solid number two option or an excellent third option for a championship contender but unless or until he adds a midrange game, a postup game and some semblance of defensive awareness/effort to his skill set repertoire he will be better suited to a supporting role than a leading role. Harden averaged 26.8 ppg, 5.8 apg and 4.7 rpg in Houston's first round loss to Portland but he shot just .376 from the field and .296 from three point range; during last year's playoffs, Harden averaged 26.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg and 4.5 apg while shooting .391 from the field and .341 from three point range. Harden's game is based on shooting a lot of three pointers and flailing his arms while driving to the hoop, hoping to get bailed out with a foul call. Teams that deny Harden open three pointers and block his path to the hoop without fouling him can force Harden to shoot a low percentage. In other words, he is poorly suited to be the number one option for a championship contending team because when he faces elite teams he will not score efficiently and/or draw double teams, nor will he make enough contributions in other areas to offset his ineffective offensive game. The Thunder can and have replaced Harden's offense but Harden has not yet found two superstars like Durant and Westbrook who can take the pressure off of him.

Many "stat gurus" see little value in the midrange game, asserting that basketball teams should take the majority of their shots either at the rim or behind the three point line. The math behind that theory is sound--the highest percentage shots are dunks and open three pointers--and I used to take that same position with my teammates in recreational league/pickup play, arguing that a three point shooter who shoots .400 from that distance is equivalent to a two point shooter who shoots .600, but there are major differences between amateur basketball and NBA basketball. Teams below the NBA level can win by bombarding the opposition with three pointers, because the players' skill level and the coaches' acumen are not nearly as advanced as they are in the NBA. Paul Westhead had great success as a college coach and he won a WNBA title employing a fast paced approach with a high number of three point attempts but his 1980 L.A. Lakers championship team played a more conventional style.

This season, Harden is almost universally considered an MVP candidate. I understand why he is in the discussion based on his high scoring average but my leading MVP candidates for 2014-15 are LeBron James (best all-around player in the game), Stephen Curry (elite scorer/playmaker who is a very underrated defender), Anthony Davis (rising, versatile star who scores, rebounds and defends) and Russell Westbrook (explosive performer at both ends of the court who singlehandedly carried the Thunder during a tumultuous season). 

Harden has turned out to be a better player than I expected but I still do not believe that he can be the best player on a championship team and I would not take him ahead of any of the aforementioned four players. Look at what happened in the first round, when the Rockets won a series for the first time since acquiring Harden. Harden shot just 9-28 (.321) from the field in the first two games versus Dallas. Without Howard's dominating work at both ends of the court, the Rockets surely would have lost homecourt advantage and might have even been in an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas. When the Mavericks adjusted their defensive coverage to account for Howard's activity, Harden rose to the occasion with a playoff career-high 42 points on 15-24 field goal shooting in a game three Houston win.

The difference between Harden and players like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James who have led teams to championships as all-around versatile wings is that Harden needs someone else to be the focal point. In Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook drew most of the defensive attention, while Harden either lived in their shadows or else played against bench players. In his first two years in Houston, Harden shot less than .400 from the field in each of Houston's first round losses; Howard had not joined the team in 2013 and in 2014 Howard was still not back to his normal self.

If Howard continues to play like he did in 2009 when he led the Orlando Magic to the NBA Finals, then the Rockets can be a legitimate championship contender with Harden as the second best player. However, even if Howard plays at a high level I still expect the Clippers to beat the Rockets in the Western Conference semifinals. The Clippers showed a lot of maturity and poise in the San Antonio series and those traits will serve them well against Houston.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

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