Early Season Notes About Some High Profile Teams
It is way too early to make any definitive--or even preliminary--conclusions about the just-started NBA season, but here are a few observations about what we have seen so far, starting with last season's "Final Four" teams and then looking at several other teams that receive a lot of attention.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder started the season 4-0 without the injured Jalen Williams, who made the All-NBA Third Team and the All-Star team last season. Their margin for error and their victory margins are much smaller than last season; the Thunder currently have a point differential of 7.7 ppg, which is very good by normal standards but just pedestrian compared to the all-time single season record that they set last season (12.9 ppg). The Thunder are scoring 121.0 ppg, just above the 120.5 ppg that they averaged last season, but four games is a small sample size and two of the Thunder's four games went to double overtime. In their two regulation length wins, they scored 117 points and 101 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an even bigger load than he did last season when he won the scoring title, the regular season MVP, the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the NBA Finals MVP; he joined Michael Jordan as the only players in the last 50 years to total at least 120 points in the first three games of a season, and he is the only player to accomplish this feat while shooting at least .500 from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is also just the third player to score at least 20 points in at least 75 straight games, with his streak only trailing one streak by Oscar Robertson (79) and two streaks by Wilt Chamberlain (96 and 126).
Indiana Pacers: This will be a challenging season for the Pacers, who are without both injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton and long-time starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks last summer. The Pacers started 0-3, competing hard in a double overtime loss to the Thunder in the season opener before being blown out by Memphis (128-103) and losing a close game to Minnesota (114-110). It should be noted that Minnesota's best player, Anthony Edwards, played only three minutes in that game.
Last season, Haliburton led a high octane offense that ranked seventh in the league in scoring; through three games, the Pacers rank 20th in scoring, and an alarming 28th in points allowed.
The Pacers are well-coached by Rick Carlisle, and their identity is to play hard, but they have lost too much talent to be a playoff team this season. They are relying heavily on Pascal Siakam, who is doing all that he can to keep the team afloat (26.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 6.0 apg). Bennedict Mathurin averaged 31.0 ppg in two games, but he suffered a toe injury in the second game and sat out the Pacers' third game. It is uncertain when he will return to action.
New York Knicks: The Knicks opened the season by beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 119-111, and then they defeated the depleted Boston Celtics before losing to the Miami Heat, who are missing injured All-Star guard Tyler Herro. The Knicks are averaging 110.3 ppg and rank second in the league with 46.3 three point field goal attempts per game; last season, the Knicks scored 115.8 ppg and averaged 34.1 three point field goal attempts per game (27th in the league).
The Knicks replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Although the Knicks are scoring a bit less so far this season, their offense appears to be running at a faster pace and definitely involves more three point shooting. Last season, the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, so this season is NBA Finals or bust for the Knicks.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota started 2-1, but two-time All-NBA Second Team selection Anthony Edwards played just three minutes in the third game (a 114-110 win versus Indiana) before suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for at least a week. Last night, the Timberwolves sans Edwards fell to the Denver Nuggets, 127-114. The Timberwolves started 6-6 last season and recovered to earn the sixth seed before advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. Julius Randle is averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 5.3 apg. The Timberwolves cannot reasonably expect to reach the Western Conference Finals again from the sixth seed, so it is important for them to win some games while Edwards is out, and then pick up the pace after he returns.
Cleveland Cavaliers: After losing 119-111 to the New York Knicks in the season opener for both teams, the Cavaliers reeled off three straight wins, capped by a 116-95 dismantling of the Detroit Pistons last night. The Pistons, tapped by some commentators as a potential Eastern Conference contender, fell to 2-2 and trailed by as much as 35 points before the contest entered what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."
Donovan Mitchell has been fantastic through four games, averaging 31.3 ppg while shooting .564 from the field. Four other Cavaliers are each averaging at least 13.5 ppg, picking up the slack for injured All-Star guard Darius Garland and injured three point specialist Max Strus.
The Cavaliers have proven that they are an excellent regular season team--finishing first in the Eastern Conference last season with a 64-18 record after starting 15-0--but, like the Knicks, their season will be deemed successful based solely on making a deep playoff run. The Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals.
Boston Celtics: Like the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics face an uphill climb this season due to an injured star player and a depleted roster. Jayson Tatum is expected to miss the entire season, and key players Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet are now playing for other teams. Tatum is one of the NBA's five best players, and one of the underrated aspects of his greatness is defense, particularly defensive rebounding. During their 1-3 start, the Celtics rank 17th in rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding. Last season, the Celtics ranked eighth in rebounding and seventh in defensive rebounding, with Tatum leading the team in both categories by wide margins.
The Celtics also miss Tatum's scoring and his shot creation; so far this season, the Celtics rank 23rd in field goal percentage, 25th in three point field goal percentage, and 10th in three point field goals made; last season, the Celtics ranked 19th, 10th, and first respectively in those categories, with Tatum being the primary scorer and primary facilitator.
Golden State Warriors: It feels like the Warriors are living on borrowed time with an aging, injury-prone roster, but so far they are 3-1, including an overtime victory versus a Denver team that looks like a championship contender. Casual fans and uninformed commentators tend to focus on Golden State's offense and specifically Stephen Curry's three point shooting, but the Warriors' championship teams were excellent defensively; their most recent title-winning team in 2022 ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed. The Warriors currently rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and if they continue at that pace on defense then they are unlikely to be a contending team regardless of how many three pointers Curry makes.
Curry is leading the league in free throw percentage (he is perfect in 22 attempts), three point field goals made (20) and three point field goals attempted (44) while averaging 29.0 ppg. He has not averaged 29.0 ppg since the 2022-23 season, so it will be interesting to see if he can score at that level for a full season as a soon to be 38 year old. Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.5 ppg--which would be his highest scoring average since 2022-23--and he said that he plans to have a higher free throw percentage than Curry this season. Butler's free throw percentage so far (.881) is a career-high but would be the second worst free throw percentage of Curry's career!
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic has led the Denver Nuggets to a championship and two Western Conference Finals appearances even though he has yet to play with a current All-Star; that streak of non-All-Star teammates may end this season if Jamal Murray (30.3 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (25.3 ppg) remain healthy and productive. Jokic just joined Oscar Robertson (1960-61) and Russell Westbrook (2020-21) on the list of players who had a triple double in each of the first three games of a season; last night, Jokic had 25 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists in what Peacock's Grant Hill called a "quiet" performance as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 127-114. "Quiet" for Jokic would be a career-best loud thunderstorm for most NBA players.
Denver went 0-4 versus Minnesota last season after losing 4-3 to the Timberwolves in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, but a major caveat about yesterday's game is that--as noted above--Anthony Edwards did not play due to a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for two weeks.
An overtime loss to the Warriors followed by wins against the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves sans Edwards is a small sample size, but the Nuggets should be encouraged not only by the health/productivity of Murray and Gordon but also by the solid contributions made by newly acquired players Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown. Throughout Jokic's career, the Nuggets have tended to get destroyed when he is out of the game, so if the rebuilt bench can even just tread water while Jokic rests then Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be fresher and deadlier than ever.
L.A. Lakers: The Lakers started the season without LeBron James, who will miss at least a few more weeks due to sciatica, and now they will be without Luka Doncic for at least a week due to a finger injury and a lower leg contusion. Doncic scored 43 points and then 49 points in the Lakers' first two games, setting a franchise record for most points by a player in the first two games of a season--but the Lakers went 1-1 in those games. Doncic is the only Laker other than Kobe Bryant to have at least 45 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least five assists, and at least five three point field goals made in the same regular season game.
The Lakers are now 1-1 without Doncic. They beat the Sacramento Kings 127-120 as Austin Reaves erupted for a career-high 51 points along with 11 rebounds and nine assists, and last night they lost 122-108 to Portland with Reaves scoring a game-high 41 points and committing a game-high eight turnovers.
Other than the health of their top two players, the key question for the Lakers is if they can consistently play good defense. They rank 14th in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. It is far from certain that having James and Doncic for all four games would have helped in either of those categories, as James is no longer a consistently good defensive player and Doncic is consistently a subpar defensive player.
The Lakers cannot go very far just based on offense alone; in their 128-110 victory over Minnesota, the Lakers shot .592 (45-76) from the field, powered by Doncic shooting 14-23 (.609). That kind of shooting is great, but unsustainable.
Deandre Ayton is averaging 15.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting .600 from the field, and the Lakers will need for him to continue to be productive.
The funny thing about any team featuring LeBron James is that James' media buddies will always promote the narrative that James does not have enough help. If James played with prime Kobe Bryant, prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, prime Magic Johnson, prime Elgin Baylor, and prime Jerry West, there is no doubt that Chris Haynes would report, "Sources tell me that Bryant shoots too much, Kareem only shoots skyhooks and his presence in the paint prevents LeBron from driving to the hoop, Magic's ball dominance prevents LeBron from doing what he does best, the Lakers would be better if Baylor stood in the corner to shoot three pointers, and West hurts the team because he can only dribble with his right hand." Dave McMenamin would add, "Anonymous players told me that Kareem is a 'vampire' who sucks the life out of the locker room, no one wants to play with Kobe, Magic smiles too much, Baylor is a ball hog, and West should let LeBron be the primary ballhandler." Brian Windhorst would conclude, "Ever since I followed LeBron around when he was in high school, LeBron has been a pass-first player who is a great leader. On this Lakers team, he is not able to pass or lead because Magic and West have taken those roles, and sources tell me that LeBron is not happy about this."
The current Lakers have two perimeter players beside James who can score 50 points or get 10 assists in a game, they have a center who rebounds, rolls to the hoop, and takes high percentage shots, and they have several solid role players, but after they once again fail to advance past the first round we will hear about how it is everyone's fault except LeBron's. The LeBron James era in L.A. has featured one "bubble" championship, one other Western Conference Finals appearance, three first round losses, and two seasons of missing the playoffs. James had an MVP-caliber/first ballot Hall of Fame player (Anthony Davis or Luka Doncic) in his prime next to him for all but one of those seasons. For the record, Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to back to back titles in 2009 and 2010 without a single teammate who made the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs and Thunder are the NBA's only 4-0 teams. Victor Wembanyama has posted MVP-level numbers: 31.0 ppg (seventh in the league), 13.8 rpg (fourth), 4.8 bpg (first), and .603 field goal percentage. The most encouraging number may be the number that decreased the most: he is attempting 2.8 three point field goals per game after attempting 8.8 three point field goals per game last season. Wembanyama looks bigger, stronger, and much more focused on attacking the paint. Accurate three point shooting is an important weapon for players and for teams, but championships are won on defense and in the paint, and Wembanyama is making strong contributions in those important areas.
The Spurs are unlikely to be a championship contender this season, but Wembanyama is showing signs of being the kind of player who can be the best player on a legit contender. He is receiving solid support from the team's other young players, including Stephon Castle (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg), Devin Vassell (16.8 ppg), rookie Dylan Harper (14.8 ppg, 4.8 apg), and Keldon Johnson (12.0 ppg on .643 field goal shooting).
The Spurs rank first in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage. They could win at least 50 games if they can maintain those rankings for the entire season.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 3:49 PM
