20 Second Timeout

Analyzing the Collapse of the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers finished with the worst record in the Eastern Conference (19-63) and the second worst record in the NBA behind the 17-65 Minnesota Timberwolves; the Cleveland Cavaliers also won the 2011 NBA championship. I am not delusional, nor am I referring to the way that Cleveland fans rooted for the "Mavaliers" to defeat the hated Miami Heat; the ironic thing about "The Decision" is that LeBron James fled an allegedly inadequate supporting cast in Cleveland to go to Miami only to ultimately lose to a team using the same template that formed the basis for the roster that Dan Gilbert, Danny Ferry and Mike Brown had been building around James for the past several years: a squad with one dominant MVP level player surrounded by former All-Stars and gritty role players who collectively bought into playing unselfish offense and tenacious defense. The Dallas Mavericks refuted the idea that it is impossible to win an NBA championship with the kind of team that the Cavaliers had put together around James--and the Mavericks also refuted two other ideas: that a LeBron James-Dwyane Wade duo would be an unstoppable juggernaut and that LeBron James would have been more successful with the Lakers of recent vintage than Kobe Bryant has been: James not only partnered with Wade but he also had his own Pau Gasol in Chris Bosh and yet it is far from certain that the Heat will match the Lakers' recent run of three straight conference championships/two consecutive NBA titles. The "stat gurus" sold the world a bill of goods when they contended that switching LeBron James for Kobe Bryant circa 2008 would have resulted in more wins and/or more championships for the L.A. Lakers.

James is obviously a very valuable basketball player but it is absurd to say that his departure alone is responsible for the Cavs' collapse--and listening to such nonsense during the 2011 season was a fingernails on the chalkboard experience for any rational-thinking NBA observer, so let's set the record straight once and for all about exactly what happened to the Cavaliers in the 2010-11 season. The Cavs not only lost their best player but they also essentially rebooted their entire franchise from top to bottom: the Cavs fired Coach Mike Brown (the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year) and shortly afterward General Manager Danny Ferry (the 2009 NBA Executive of the Year) resigned. For a combination of reasons, the Cavs did not retain the services of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Shaquille O'Neal and Delonte West, three key players in the team's eight man rotation: Ilgauskas and O'Neal had split most of the minutes in the middle and the Cavs have yet to make up for the significant loss of size in the paint; I mentioned this factor in my season preview and yet I have to confess that even I underestimated just how damaging this would be. West had been the team's most versatile player (and best wing defender) other than James. Some might argue that Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West did not have much impact during the 2011 season and thus the Cavs would have declined anyway even if James had re-signed with Cleveland but that misses the point on two counts: one, those guys played a key role in Cleveland's success (and thus needed to either be retained or adequately replaced); two, if James had re-signed with Cleveland and recruited players the way that he did when he joined the Heat then the Cavs would have been able to put viable players around James much the way that they had done in previous years. The fact that Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West were not top level players in 2011 does not change the reality that they played key roles in Cleveland's success the previous two seasons and thus their collective absences were keenly felt by the 2011 Cavs.

The Cavs had been a very deep team prior to the 2011 season but they began the season with a decent starting lineup and very little bench strength; their margin of error for injuries (or even foul trouble) was quite slim and that is another factor that I should have emphasized more in my season preview: it would have been more precise for me to say that the Cavs could win 35-40 games if everything went right but that a key injury or two would reduce that total to the 25-30 game range. No one could have rationally foreseen that the Cavs would fail to win even 20 games (the yahoo who made that prediction also said that James would lead the Heat to 70-plus wins and a championship, so he was clearly making his picks based not on rational logic but rather on being a biased James fan).

The Cavs' key players were never completely healthy at the same time in 2010-11; Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams began the season with nagging injuries but then the death blow to any hope for the Cavs arrived when Anderson Varejao--the team's only credible inside player--suffered a season-ending injury. Near the end of the season, Coach Byron Scott remarked, "I remember telling my assistants that the one player we couldn't afford to lose was Andy (Varejao). A week later, he was out for the season."

Scott did a solid job coaching the patchwork team that remained after the roster was gutted by the departures of James, Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West plus the various injuries that sidelined key players but he made a strategic error by trying to use the Princeton Offense despite having a roster ill-equipped to run it effectively. Specifically, even if the Cavs had been at full strength they did not have a center who could pass well out of the high post, a deficiency that Princeton Offense guru Pete Carril noted when he was asked about the Cavs late in the season: "When he (Scott) was in New Jersey, they went to the Finals two times and he had the right kind of players for that offense--they were unselfish and they passed the ball. That's not the same kind of team as this. I'm hopeful he'll see he better go in a different direction. If you can't run a high pick-and-roll, you're done for. That's the only thing nobody stops. The Princeton offense has been around for such a long time that I think it may have worn out its usefulness. If he had a center that could pass the ball better, it'd be better." Scott eventually gave up trying to run the Princeton offense but only after the Cavs had already suffered a devastating 26 game losing streak.

After Cleveland lost 99-96 to Dallas--tying the NBA record for consecutive defeats (25)--Jamison said, "Let's be honest. One guy did a lot for this organization, for the city of Cleveland, for the game in general. [But] before the season we had Andy, Mo, myself, a couple veterans here and there. You think this is still a unit that can win and compete. We believed that. And still believe that. [Now] we've just got to keep competing." ESPN's Marc Stein added, "As one Eastern Conference scout colorfully explained in a recent Weekend Dime, Cleveland minus the injured Anderson Varejao and Mo Williams is 'a summer-league team and Antawn Jamison.'"

The depleted lineup that the Cavs trotted out for most of the season bore no resemblance to the deep squad that surrounded James the preceding two years. In case Rick Kamla and others still believe that losing LeBron James was the only significant change for the Cavaliers during the 2010-11 season, here are the facts regarding the Cavaliers' rotation during the past three seasons:

The 2009 Cavs went 66-16 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of LeBron James (3054), Mo Williams (2834), Anderson Varejao (2306), Delonte West (2152), Daniel Gibson (1795), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (1765), Wally Szczerbiak (1527) and Ben Wallace (1314); the same players (in slightly different order) also led the team in minutes per game.

The 2010 Cavs went 61-21 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of LeBron James (2966), Mo Williams (2359), Anthony Parker (2289), Anderson Varejao (2166), J.J. Hickson (1691), Delonte West (1500), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (1339) and Shaquille O'Neal (1240); the same players (in slightly different order) led the team in minutes per game, with Antawn Jamison (32.4 mpg in 25 games) joining the team down the stretch and Hickson and Ilgauskas each averaging 20.9 mpg overall as the eighth/ninth men in a very deep frontcourt rotation.

The 2011 Cavs went 19-63 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of J.J. Hickson (2256), Ramon Sessions (2133), Anthony Parker (2091), Daniel Gibson (1865), Antawn Jamison (1842), Ryan Hollins (1182), Mo Williams (1065) and Anderson Varejao (994). Williams played in just 36 games before being traded for Baron Davis (who ranked eighth on the team in minutes per game but only played in 15 games as a Cav), while Varejao played in just 31 games. That roster has no quality legitimate big men (other than the injured Varejao) and bears little resemblance to the previous two rosters.

For those who cannot be bothered to compare/contrast the data in the previous three paragraphs, the 2011 Cavs' eight man rotation contained just three players from the 2010 squad's eight man rotation: the inconsistent Hickson--now thrust into the role as the team's leader in minutes played--plus the injured Varejao and Williams, who was limited by nagging injuries before being traded to the Clippers. The 2011 Cavs' eight man rotation also included just three players from the 2009 squad's eight man rotation: Gibson (a non-starting three point specialist in 2009 who started 15 games in 2011) plus the aforementioned Williams and Varejao. If Jamison, Williams and Varejao had been the 2011 Cavs' top three players in minutes played (instead of fifth, seventh and eighth respectively) the Cavs would have posted a much better record. James' departure probably cost the Cavs about 20 wins but the rest of the decline stemmed from the upheaval involved with changing the team's front office/coaching staff combined with the injuries and roster moves that drastically changed the eight man rotation.

It is fine to rhapsodize about LeBron James' greatness as a regular season performer--I picked him as the 2011 MVP--but James' abilities are proven by what he accomplished in Miami, not by the sagging fortunes of a rebooted franchise plagued by injuries, bereft of depth and lacking a legit big man. I fully realize that the Cavs' 2011 season will likely be used indefinitely as an easy punchline to "confirm" James' value but I sincerely hope that at some point people will eventually come to their senses and appreciate the logical points stated in the preceding paragraphs; the discussion of NBA basketball should not forever be dominated by wrongheaded "stat gurus," misinformed media members and amateur writers plucked out of nowhere for 15 minutes of fame as part of the self-proclaimed "Worldwide Leader's" blogging network. The sport--and the writing profession--both deserve much better than that.

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

posted by David Friedman @ 3:21 PM

16 comments

What is Wrong With the Cleveland Cavaliers?

The story of the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers has been a tale of two seasons so far; they started out a solid 7-9--not a bad record considering the well documented offseason turmoil that the franchise experienced--but they are currently in the midst of an eight game losing streak, with seven of the defeats by double digit margins. Five of those losses took place on the road and four of the losses were to teams that are expected to be strong playoff contenders (Boston, Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City) but there is no getting around the fact that during most of this stretch the Cavs have looked overwhelmed and--most disturbingly--disinterested, a marked contrast with how hard they played during the first 16 games.

The funny thing is that despite how awful the Cavs have been recently they still are on pace to win more than twice as many games as a certain yahoo predicted that they would win but the measuring stick for a successful season cannot be to simply exceed a ludicrous prediction by an unqualified NBA "expert." Commentators and fans want to pretend that the Cavs' performance this season is some kind of referendum on the strength of LeBron James' 2009 and 2010 supporting casts but that is ignorant. The 2009 and 2010 Cavs were defensive-minded teams coached by Mike Brown and run on the San Antonio Spurs' model, while this year's Cavs have gone in a new direction under Coach Byron Scott, who has a much different personality and coaching style than Brown; Brown was an easygoing coach who hesitated to call out players publicly and whose top strategic concerns all revolved around defense, while Scott is a former NBA player who will publicly rebuke players who do not perform up to his expectations and whose teams run the precise, intricate Princeton Offense developed by Hall of Fame Coach Pete Carril (Carril and Scott were both assistant coaches with the Sacramento Kings). That is not to say that Brown ignored offense or that Scott ignores defense but the Cavs did things a certain way for several years and are now adjusting to a coach who has a different approach and a different demeanor. In addition to the coaching change it is important to emphasize that the 2011 Cavs' roster is significantly different from their 2010 and 2009 rosters. Four of the nine Cavaliers who averaged at least 20 mpg during the 2010 regular season are no longer members of the team; five of the eight Cavaliers who averaged at least 20 mpg during the 2009 regular season no longer play for Cleveland.

Obviously, LeBron James is by far the most significant player who left but the 2011 Cavaliers have a much different player rotation and coaching philosophy than the 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers did. In order to truly have a referendum on the strength of the 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers teams without James we would have to see those rosters otherwise stay intact with the same coach and play a complete season sans James--and don't talk about the Cavs' 2009 and 2010 record in a handful of scattered games without James, during many of which the Cavs rested multiple other starters: that sample size is too small and too skewed to be meaningful.

The current Cavs team, led by former All-Stars Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams plus defensive stalwart Anderson Varejao, has enough talent to win 40 games and claim the final Eastern Conference playoff berth. Why has this team gone into such a tailspin? One game early in a long season should not make or break a team but it is evident that the Cavs are having a "pity party" amongst themselves in the wake of the overblown spectacle surrounding LeBron James' return to Cleveland as a member of the Miami Heat. That Cleveland-Miami game was the Cavs' only scheduled nationally televised contest this season and it was not being broadcast because anyone expected to see a competitive basketball game; no, the interest revolved around a ghoulish fascination with what might happen in the arena: would a fan rush the court, would people throw things at LeBron James, would there be some kind of riot? That is a terrible atmosphere for a basketball game. Cleveland fans hoped/expected that some kind of miracle would happen and that a team that has a legitimate shot at the eighth seed would rise up and beat a team with three young stars that is on a championship or bust mission. The Heat have a few weaknesses but the Cavs are not currently able to exploit any of them: the Heat are vulnerable against teams that have strong inside games and/or a quick, penetrating point guard but the Cavs are also lacking in those areas. James has yet to prove that he can lead a team to victory over an elite squad when it matters most but he certainly has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion against inferior teams when he feels personally challenged (just ask the Washington Wizards, who foolishly engaged in trash talking battles with James during several lopsided playoff series). The spectacle in Cleveland was tailor made for James to have a big game so that the national media could once again fawn over the team that they prematurely anointed as a dynasty in the making. Meanwhile, the Cavs got embarrassed on their homecourt and they alienated their fans by seeming to be too chummy with James. I think that the whole situation negatively affected the Cavs' morale. Is that a valid reason/excuse to go on a long losing streak? Of course not--but anyone who watched the Cavs play before and after the Miami game knows that the Cavs simply have not looked the same since James came to town. The Cavs need to forget about James and the Heat and start focusing on realistic, obtainable goals for this season, namely playing hard every night, outexecuting/outhustling the sub-.500 teams and at least being competitive against upper echelon teams.

Even when the Cavs looked better in the early part of the season, there were some indications of potential weaknesses. The Cavs lack paint presence both offensively and defensively. In recent years the Cavs were a big, long team not just because of James starring at small forward but also because of the presence of Zydrunas Ilgauskas and (last season) Shaquille O'Neal. Yes, those guys did not play huge minutes or put up awesome statistics but if you understand basketball then you know that having a legit seven footer who can play alters things at both ends of the court. O'Neal is a key member of the Eastern Conference-leading Boston Celtics, starting at center in place of the injured Kendrick Perkins; the Heat have gone 13-4 since inserting Ilgauskas into their starting lineup. This season the Cavs have trouble protecting the paint defensively and they have trouble getting into the paint offensively. Anderson Varejao is an excellent player but he is best suited to be a starting power forward and/or a backup center; he is a bit miscast as a starting center.

Another problem is that the Princeton Offense that Coach Byron Scott loves does not smoothly fit with the Cavs' current roster. The Princeton Offense works best when a team has excellent high post bigs who can screen, pass and make jump shots. Varejao is good in pure screen/roll situations as a screener but he does not have the ballhandling dexterity or shooting touch of someone like Vlade Divac, who thrived in this offense with the Sacramento Kings. The Cavs should run more pure screen/roll sets with Varejao and also use pick and pop sets with Antawn Jamison. In certain matchups they should feature Jamison in the post, because he can be very tough to cover down there. The Cavs do not have the option of going big, so they should revel in going small, playing fast, hustling and trying to get uncontested three pointers in transition for guys like Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson and Anthony Parker.

I knew about these problems and tendencies before the season began, so why did I predict that the Cavs would "hover right around .500 for most of the season and to manage to hold on to the final playoff spot"? I thought that the Cavs would probably start slowly--though not quite this slowly--but then round into form in the second half of the season. I also realized that other than the top four or five teams every team in the East has significant shortcomings/weaknesses. The main concern for the Cavs right now is not their record--in an Eastern Conference populated by broken Pistons, nearly extinct Raptors, Wizards lacking special powers, spiritless 76ers and empty Nets it will not take a great record to get the eighth playoff spot--but rather their attitudes. The Cavs are just not playing hard and they clearly do not have enough talent to just coast. The current losing streak will end soon--quite possibly against a team that no one expects them to beat--and I still do not think that it is out of the question for the Cavs to get to 35-37 wins, which could be enough to grab the eighth seed. However, if they don't get their minds right and/or if they suffer an injury to a key player then their season could spiral down the drain, though it would take a collapse of epic and historic proportions for them to end up with just 12 wins!

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison, Byron Scott, Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, Mike Brown, Mo Williams

posted by David Friedman @ 4:44 AM

6 comments

Cavaliers Surprise "Experts"

Why would someone predict that the Cleveland Cavaliers will only win 12 games this season? The simple (and correct) answer is that the yahoo who said that is an idiot but there are some deeper issues worth exploring.

The Cavaliers posted the best record in the NBA in 2008-09 (66-16) and 2009-10 (61-21). LeBron James won the regular season MVP in both of those seasons and he clearly had a lot to do with Cleveland's success but an MVP level player is worth between 15 and 25 wins, not 50 wins. If the Cavs had lost James but made no other changes then it would have been reasonable to predict that the Cavs would win 45-50 games in 2010-11. Keep in mind that in both of the previous seasons the Cavs coasted to the finish line because they had already clinched the top playoff seed; otherwise, the Cavs could easily have added to their 2009 and 2010 win totals.

Saying that the Cavs will plummet from the league's elite to flirting with the all-time record for single-season losses is simply not rational--and yet it makes perfect sense from a certain perspective: namely, if you are biased enough to believe (based on "advanced statistics" and/or personal preference) that LeBron James is not just an MVP level player but that he is far superior to Kobe Bryant then it is only natural to suggest that James' departure from Cleveland to team up with Dwyane Wade (another player who the "stat gurus" consistently rate ahead of Bryant) will not only turn the Miami Heat into an unbeatable juggernaut but also instantly transform the Cavs into the equivalent of an expansion team. This is the same kind of "logic" that led some people to declare that if Bryant and James had switched teams the past two seasons James would have carried the Lakers to 70-plus wins while Bryant's Cavs would not have matched the records that they posted with James leading the way; that is just nonsense but I will focus on James and the Heat in an upcoming article.

Many people apparently anticipated using this season as some kind of referendum on James' greatness and on how much the Cavs depended on James but those people have chosen poorly for two reasons. One, anyone who really understands basketball knows that the Cavs' success was not linked solely to James: the Cavs had a deep and well balanced roster that Coach Mike Brown honed into one of the top defensive and rebounding units in the league. Two, in addition to losing James the Cavs also lost their top two centers (Shaquille O'Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas), the player who led the team in minutes played during the 2009 playoffs (Delonte West) and Coach Brown. The Cavs are a much different team this season, so whether they win 50 games or 15 does not really "prove" how much or how little the 2009 and 2010 Cavs depended on James to post the league's best regular season record; however, if the main holdovers from last year's team (Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Anthony Parker, J.J. Hickson and Daniel Gibson) lead the team to the playoffs sans James that will certainly lend credence to what I have consistently said regarding the quality of the Cavs' depth last season.

Despite the fact that former All-Stars Williams and Jamison have missed multiple games due to injuries, the Cavs currently rank eighth in the Eastern Conference, exactly where I predicted that they would finish. Obviously, the season is young and there is no guarantee that the Cavs will maintain that position but it is extremely unlikely that they will finish with anything close to 12 wins; I expect that they will be better in the second half of the season than they are now because their key players will presumably get healthier and the entire roster will become more familiar with Coach Byron Scott's system.

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison, Byron Scott, Cleveland Cavaliers, Daniel Gibson, LeBron James, Mike Brown, Mo Williams

posted by David Friedman @ 12:57 AM

8 comments

Cavs Build 22 Point Lead, Coast to 96-83 Win Over Bulls

Several Cavaliers set career playoff highs in various statistical categories as Cleveland used a balanced attack to defeat Chicago 96-83 in game one of their first round playoff series. LeBron James led the way with a game-high 24 points on 9-19 field goal shooting plus six rebounds, five assists and a playoff career-high four blocked shots but he had a lot of help: Mo Williams added 19 points, a playoff career-high 10 assists and four rebounds, while Anderson Varejao scored eight points and grabbed a playoff career-high 15 rebounds. Antawn Jamison had a double double in his first playoff game as a Cav (15 points, 10 rebounds) and Shaquille O'Neal was aggressive right from the start and he had 12 points, five rebounds and four assists in 25 efficient and productive minutes--an excellent box score line for a 38 year old center who had not played in nearly two months after suffering a thumb injury that required surgery. The Bulls' offense was pretty much the Derrick Rose show: the dynamic second year player produced 28 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds but he also turned the ball over seven times and fired up 28 field goal attempts, a large number for a point guard; Rose shot a solid percentage (13-28, .464) but he only earned two free throw attempts, which means that the Cavs defended without fouling, forcing Rose to work very hard to create shot opportunities for himself and his teammates. Joakim Noah spent most of the game in foul trouble--and he wasted a lot of energy complaining about that; he finished with 10 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots. Small forward Luol Deng was Chicago's only other double figure scorer (12 points) but he shot just 5-15 from the field and he had little impact during his 39 minutes of action. Flip Murray pumped in nine points in just 11 minutes, a ratio that he likely could not maintain if given more extensive playing time. The other Bulls were interchangeably invisible for most of the game.

The two big questions about the Cavs coming into this game were how effective O'Neal would be after his long period of inactivity and whether the team in general would be rusty after turning the latter part of the regular season into a second preseason. It did not take long for the Cavs to prove that their fans have no need to worry about either issue--at least not against an opponent as completely outmatched as the Bulls are. Although James missed his first two point blank shot attempts and O'Neal's initial layup attempt also went awry, the Cavs soon asserted their dominance over the Bulls in a variety of ways, taking a 32-18 lead by the end of the first quarter. Jamison got off to a fast start with nine points and five rebounds but O'Neal set the tone with seven points, three rebounds and one assist as the Cavs outscored the Bulls 16-4 in the paint in the first 12 minutes; O'Neal's tremendous presence distorted the Bulls' defense like a badly broken accordion, as the smaller Bulls collapsed into the lane to try to deal with O'Neal and then watched the Cavs use good ball movement to repeatedly create open shots for players left unguarded in the wake of the swath of destruction that O'Neal left.

The Cavs led 56-41 at halftime before scoring 10 points in the first 2:30 of the second half and eventually establishing a 22 point bulge. It seemed like the Cavs could simply name the final score as the Bulls could neither stop the Cavs from scoring nor find a way to get their anemic offense going but then the Cavs began getting sloppy, committing careless turnovers and settling for too many jump shots: in the second half the Cavs shot just 16-39 from the field (.410) after blistering the nets at a .511 clip (23-45) in the first half--and during one extended second half stretch the Cavs shot 9-27 (.333) as the Bulls battled back to trim the lead to 78-71 with 7:25 remaining in the fourth quarter. In theory, that is a quite workable margin for the trailing team with that much time left but the reality--as I mentioned in my series preview--is that the Bulls will struggle to score 85 points against the Cavs so by that stage the Cavs were in effect just a few made baskets away from essentially putting the game out of reach regardless of what the scoreboard said; sure enough, jumpers by Jamison and Williams plus a Varejao dunk increased the Cavs' point total to 86 by the 4:47 mark and then James iced the game by awaking from his fourth quarter slumber (he did not score in the first 9:31 of the final stanza) with a three point play followed by a long jumper at the 1:28 mark that proved to be the final basket of the game for either team.

In his postgame press conference, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown did everything he could to avoid creating bulletin board material for the Bulls and to try to ward off overconfidence by his team; Brown praised the Bulls for being a "good, gritty team that competes real hard" and he emphasized a point that he made before the game (see below in Notes From Courtside) about how well the Bulls "shrink the floor and make the paint look crowded," which is part of the reason that the Cavs took 23 three point shots and experienced a second half offensive drought.

Chicago Coach Vinny Del Negro said that his team committed too many first quarter turnovers and got overpowered on the boards (Cleveland outrebounded Chicago 50-38) but he saw a silver lining because "our guys fought back in it."

O'Neal was not as lively as he has been in some press conferences but with a straight face he offered up some quirkiness/dry humor: first he declared that the exaggerated way that he ambles down court after a particularly impressive dunk is his "Diesel truck with no brakes" move--his message to opponents to get out of the way or get run over; then, O'Neal said that the Cavs are "LeBron Incorporated" while he is just "an unorthodox CEO who has been hired as a consultant." I still think that "Big Bill Cartwright" is a very apt description of O'Neal's current role: a 33 year old Cartwright averaged 9.6 ppg and 6.2 rpg in 28.8 mpg (ranking fourth on the team in scoring and third in rebounding) as the Bulls' starting center in 1990-91 when Michael Jordan won the first of his six NBA titles; this season, O'Neal averaged 12.0 ppg and 6.7 rpg in 23.4 mpg for the Cavs, ranking fourth on the team in both scoring and rebounding.

James and Williams shared the stage for their postgame media availability and a very serious looking James was quieter than usual, often deferring to Williams to answer questions that were addressed to both players. James' most extensive response addressed a question about how deep and talented the Cavs are now; James noted that Jamison is a player for whom opposing teams must specifically create a game plan--something that was not true of Cleveland's previous starting power forwards--and he said that the Cavs can now wear down opposing teams by virtue of the number of skilled big men that they have.

The Cavs are so deep up front that two-time All-Star Zydrunas Ilgauskas--who is still a quite skilled pick and pop player in addition to being a good rebounder--played just nine minutes, J.J. Hickson--a very productive young player who started 73 games for the league-leading Cavs this year--played just 40 garbage time seconds and Leon Powe--a rotation player for the 2008 NBA Champion Boston Celtics who has battled back from knee surgery--was not even on the active list for this game. Thus, depending on matchups, foul trouble and other considerations, the Cavs could literally send out an entirely different wave of three good big men than the crew that wreaked havoc against the Bulls in game one.

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Notes From Courtside:

The Cavs dropped their last four regular season games as Coach Brown "rested" LeBron James and various other key players. In addition to the "rest versus rust" debate there a number of other issues associated with the practice of benching healthy players, including the effect that this has on the league's integrity/competitive balance and the impact that it has on fans who may have only bought one ticket all season long and thus missed the chance to see their favorite player(s) in action (it is easy to say that such fans should have "known better" and thus purchased tickets for earlier games but that option may not have been available for any number of reasons). I am not sure when it became a standard and somewhat accepted policy for healthy players to not play; I may be wrong but it seems to me that when I was a kid some players may have sat out the very last game of the season and/or had their minutes reduced in the final few games but I cannot recall teams deliberately putting an inferior product on the court for several games in a row.

During Coach Brown's pregame standup, I asked him about this: "It seems that in the past more teams played the season out all the way to the end but at some point it became more of a fad or a trend to rest players like you did. When do you think that changed and why do you think that changed?"

Coach Brown replied, "I don't know; I know that when I was in San Antonio (as an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich) from 2000 to 2003 Tim Duncan, at times, or David Robinson, at times, might not have been hurt--this is in the regular season, not just at the end--and Pop would just say, 'Hey, we're going to rest this guy for this game or that game.' So, I've always been around that situation in terms of resting guys whether they are hurt or not hurt. That is since 2000-03. I can't remember when I worked with Bernie (Bickerstaff) or Dan Issel and guys before that if that happened before 2000-03. It might have, it might not have, but I know some of what Popovich has done since I was with him from 2000 on in terms of resting guys."

I then asked, "I was thinking historically in terms of teams that have won 68, 69 or more games; the Bulls won 72 games--those teams had obviously wrapped things up before that last win but they still kept playing their players. Is there something that changed between the 70s, 80s, 90s and now? Or because some of those things happened before you were in the league are you not sure exactly when things might have changed?"

Coach Brown answered, "I got in the league in '92, so I'm not sure what happened before then. I didn't look into it, so I don't know."

For the record, here are some interesting facts and figures about some of the winningest teams in NBA history--none of which rested key players who were not hurt and each of which won the championship:

1) The 1967 Philadelphia 76ers set a league mark with a 68-13 record and won the regular season conference title by eight games but five of their top six players played in all 81 games.

2) Four of the top five players for the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks team that went 66-16 played all 82 games even though the Bucks won the regular season conference title by 15 games.

3) The 1971-72 L.A. Lakers set an all-time wins record--69-13-- that stood for 34 years and won the regular season conference title by six games but four of their top five players played at least 80 games and Wilt Chamberlain and Gail Goodrich played in all 82 games.

4) The 1995-96 Bulls went 72-10 and won the East by 12 games but Michael Jordan played in all 82 games and in the final game of the season Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Toni Kukoc each played at least 24 minutes in a "meaningless" 103-93 win over Washington.

5) The following year, the Bulls went 69-13 and won the East by eight games but Jordan and Pippen each played in all 82 games and they logged 39 and 38 minutes respectively in a "meaningless" 103-101 loss to the Knicks in the 82nd game.

***

Before the game, Coach Brown listed two main strengths of the Bulls, a team that he said has "a record (41-41) that doesn't really speak on how good they are (because of the) injuries and distractions that they had this year." Brown said that the Bulls' best attribute offensively is their ability and willingness to repeatedly drive and kick the ball until they get an open shot, while Brown said that defensively the Bulls do an excellent job of "shrinking the floor" and "making that paint look crowded"--i.e., forcing opposing teams to shoot contested jumpers outside of the paint.

***

The next time you read or hear some foolish person spouting off about Coach Brown's supposedly bizarre player rotations during the regular season, keep this quote from Coach Brown's pregame standup in mind:

"A lot of the things that we do during the regular season--we might not say it to our players or publicly--are for the big picture, which is come playoff time. Because we feel we are a championship caliber team, we make sure we use the regular season to get better for the postseason."

So, when Coach Brown takes out your favorite bench player and inserts a bench player who you do not like this does not mean that you know more about how to allocate minutes than Coach Brown does; sometimes, he uses the regular season as a sort of chemistry lab to test out different combinations of players--and this does not mean that he is not trying to win the game in question but rather that he is trying to ultimately put his team in the best possible position to win in the postseason.

Just minutes after Brown made the above remark, James said that he and Coach Brown talked about this very issue before the season began and they reached an understanding that even if it cost the Cavs some wins early in the season it was worth it for Coach Brown to get a better understanding of which lineups were most effective and which lineups were not as effective. I'd say that Coach Brown's laboratory experiments have worked out pretty well in the past few seasons: best record in the NBA two years in a row, two Eastern Conference Finals appearances (2007, 2009) and one NBA Finals appearance (2007).

***

Prior to this game, James had averaged 29.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg and 7.3 apg in 60 career playoff games. No other player in NBA history who has participated in at least 20 playoff games has averaged at least 25 ppg, seven rpg and six apg.

***

The Cavs have posted the best record in the NBA for the past two years. Since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger, only five other teams have had the league's best record for at least two years in a row: the 1980-82 Celtics (tied with the 76ers in 1981), the 1984-86 Celtics, the 1987-88 Lakers, the 1996-98 Bulls (tied with the Jazz in 1998) and the 1998-99 Jazz (tied with the Bulls in 1998). Except for the Jazz, each of those groups won at least one NBA title.

Just leading the Eastern Conference in wins for consecutive seasons is impressive; the only other teams to do that since the merger are the 1980-82 Celtics (tied with the 76ers in 1981), the 1984-88 Celtics, the 1989-90 Pistons, the 1993-94 Knicks (tied with the Hawks in 1994), the 1996-98 Bulls, the 1999-2000 Pacers (tied with Miami in the lockout-shortened 1999 season) and the 2006-07 Pistons. From that elite group only the Knicks, the Pacers and the latter Pistons crew failed to win at least one championship.

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Antawn Jamison, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal

posted by David Friedman @ 11:51 PM

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Cavs Clobber Celtics, Move Closer to Clinching Top Seed in East

LeBron James had 30 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three blocked shots and two steals as the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Boston Celtics 104-93. Although James was highly productive, he had plenty of help, too: Anderson Varejao contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds off of the bench, Antawn Jamison added 15 points and 12 rebounds and Mo Williams scored 14 points with six assists. Ray Allen overcame a slow start to lead the Celtics with 20 points plus six rebounds and five assists, while Paul Pierce also struggled early in the game before finishing with 18 points, four assists and three rebounds. Kevin Garnett, who seems to be playing on about one and a half legs in the wake of last year's knee injury, added 18 points and seven rebounds but this season his trash talking bark has definitely been much worse than his productivity bite, which is a major reason that the Celtics are not as good as they were when they won the 2008 NBA Championship.

Although the final victory margin was not huge, this was a very impressive win for the Cavs considering the fact that they outscored the Celtics 44-34 in the paint and won the rebounding battle 51-43 despite being without Zydrunas Ilgauskas--who the Cavs can re-sign in a week--and the injured Shaquille O'Neal. I have touted the Cavs as the best team in the East throughout the season but I thought that with both O'Neal and Ilgauskas out of action the Cavs might be vulnerable inside against certain teams but that has not proven to be the case: the Cavs are now 9-4 since trading Ilgauskas for Antawn Jamison, including 7-1 since O'Neal got hurt. The Cavs lost three straight games right after the trade--ending a 13 game winning streak--but the coaching staff successfully made the appropriate adjustments, the new rotation meshed and the Cavs quickly resumed being a strong defensive team that is also quite potent offensively.

The Cavs are still the only team that has clinched a playoff berth in either conference, they are 5.5 games ahead of the Orlando Magic in the race for the top seed in the East and they are 3.5 games ahead of the L.A. Lakers in the race for the best overall record (the Cavs own the tiebreaker over the Lakers by virtue of sweeping the season series 2-0 and they have a 2-1 edge over the Magic with one head to head game remaining). If the Cavs go just 10-5 the rest of the way they will own homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs no matter what--and each loss by the Magic and Lakers reduces the Cavs' "magic number."

This game included several interesting subplots:

1) James only scored six first half points yet the Cavs led 54-48 after 24 minutes (and they would have been up nine if Paul Pierce had not stumbled his way into convincing the referees that he had been fouled while attempting a buzzer beating three pointer); James did have an excellent floor game in the first half (six assists and four rebounds). When Kobe Bryant has a half like that and the L.A. Lakers are leading, the TV commentators tend to say two things: Bryant is not shooting to "prove a point" and the fact that the Lakers are winning anyway shows just how deep their team is. I know from personal experience that Bryant or James both have the same answer if you ask about their shooting/passing decisions: they read what the defense is giving and make the appropriate decision to shoot, drive or pass. For the most part, I believe both of them, though it is obvious in certain situations that Bryant and James can also force the defense to "give" them something as opposed to just reading and reacting. It just seems strange that Bryant is both criticized for supposedly shooting too much and for sometimes supposedly deliberately not shooting, while the default media position is generally to not question James' shot selection (with a few exceptions, most notably the 2007 playoff game versus Detroit when James passed to Donyell Marshall in the final seconds instead of shooting the ball himself). The truth is that both Bryant and James are exceptional decision makers and they generally do whatever is in the best interests of their respective teams; they both force shots at times--a statement which is true of just about every player in league history who ever averaged 28-30 or more ppg in a season--but their positive contributions more than offset their occasional bad shots, particularly considering that some of their bad shots connect anyway!

2) It is just bizarre that throughout the telecast very little mention was made of the absence of O'Neal and Ilgauskas, particularly in light of that first half when James hardly scored and yet the Cavs controlled the paint. Very few--if any--NBA teams could withstand the loss of two quality seven footers who collectively average 19.5 ppg and 12.0 rpg; that is a lot of size and production, yet the Cavs have not missed a beat, simply plugging other players into those roles while giving minutes to some players who previously were not even in the rotation at all. This vividly validates what I have been saying all along about Cleveland's incredible depth and that depth has been further augmented by the Jamison acquisition. Cleveland's depth was the main story of this game and yet it was treated as a side story at best.

3) Check out the 2009-10 statistics of two players:

Player A is averaging 30.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.4 apg, .7 bpg, .9 spg and 1.8 to/g while shooting .458 from the field, .306 from three point range and .696 from the free throw line.

Player B is averaging 29.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, .9 bpg, .9 spg and 1.0 to/g while shooting .565 from the field, .200 from three point range and .669 from the free throw line.

Players cannot be correctly evaluated just by looking at their numbers without considering their skill sets and roles but it seems evident that the two players in question are roughly equal: Player A's advantages in some categories are offset by the huge difference in field goal percentage. Player A is often described as an All-Star caliber performer who is perhaps the best sixth man in the league, while Player B is often dismissed as someone who is a limited role player. In case you have not figured it out by now, Player A is Lamar Odom, while Player B is Anderson Varejao. Odom may be the Lakers' second best playmaker but that is more of an indictment of their point guard situation than anything else: starting point guard Derek Fisher is an aging spot up shooter, not a penetrating creator, while backups Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown are not true point guards and have displayed little ability to create shots for others (not to mention questionable shot selection). While the Lakers depend heavily on Bryant (and the Triangle Offense) to create shots for his teammates, the Cavs have at least four players who can create shots for others (LeBron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Anthony Parker, who played some point guard for Toronto), so they don't need or want Varejao to be handling the ball out front. The reality is that despite the hype, Varejao is currently at least as good as Odom and I would actually take Varejao over Odom because Varejao more consistently plays with energy/effort and he is an excellent defender at both the center and power forward positions, while Odom's energy/effort are much less consistent and his defense can be very good at times but is often lethargic.

Varejao is a major reason why the Cavs have been able to survive without O'Neal and Ilgauskas; he is rebounding, defending and even showing that he can handle an expanded scoring role without a corresponding reduction in his field goal percentage--and that should not be taken for granted, as Houston is finding out this year with Trevor Ariza.

4) The halftime show included a segment about how Garnett consistently goaltends shots during play stoppages so that opposing players do not have the satisfaction of seeing the ball go through the hoop. This is supposedly a great contribution that Garnett makes toward winning even though it obviously does not count in the boxscore. Another way to refer to this is "wasted energy"; when I see Garnett skying to block shots that would not have counted anyway the first thing that I think of is a young Dominique Wilkins working up a game sweat during warmups by doing all kinds of fancy dunks, thus expending energy that could have been more profitably used during the 35-40 minutes he played that actually mattered. Then I think of Jim Brown, arguably the greatest pro football player ever, and the way that he conserved energy by getting up slowly after each pileup only to go at full speed once play resumed. I find it hard to believe that any quality player would truly be psyched out by Garnett's antics; this would be irritating at first, perhaps, as Reggie Miller and Vince Carter stated during the halftime piece, but then it would just be humorous. Garnett deserves full credit for being the defensive anchor for the 2008 championship team but let's not forget that he did not have to do much offensively for that Boston squad because he had two Hall of Famers in Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to handle the crunch time scoring duties; Garnett's extracurricular blocks produced very little postseason glory when he was his team's primary scoring option in Minnesota, so why act like they are the secret behind Boston's success? When Garnett was fully healthy, he contributed rebounding, defensive range/length, solid screens (including some of the "best" moving screens that were not called as such), decent ball reversals from the high post and just enough midrange jumpers/turnaround fadeaway jumpers to keep defenses honest; those things meant much more than fake blocked shots. Furthermore, let's not forget that despite his prodigious length and athleticism Garnett was never a great shotblocker: he has only ranked in the top ten in that category once in 15 seasons and he has only averaged more than 2 bpg twice, topping out at 2.2 bpg in 2003-04. In contrast, Tim Duncan--who has always been a far less explosive leaper than Garnett--averaged at least 2 bpg in each of his first 10 seasons and he has ranked in the top ten in that category 10 times.

Instead of rhapsodizing about Garnett swatting shots that would not have counted anyway it would have been much more informative--and relevant--to discuss Cleveland's frontcourt depth and to explain why an active, energetic and efficient player like Varejao is in fact more valuable than the highly touted Odom. Sadly, though, that kind of intelligent NBA analysis is well beyond the capabilities of many of the people who talk and write about the game, so what we are left with is talking heads spewing hot air and "highlights" of blocked shots that were about as meaningful as a mascot dunking after jumping off of a trampoline.

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James

posted by David Friedman @ 5:12 AM

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Hungry, Tough Cavaliers Outwork Lakers, 93-87

In case anyone thought that it was a fluke when the Cleveland Cavaliers pushed around the defending champion L.A. Lakers on Christmas Day, on Thursday night the Cavs proved that not only can they manhandle the Lakers but they can do so shorthanded. The Cavs beat the Lakers 93-87 despite being without the services of 2009 All-Star guard Mo Williams and offseason acquisition Jamario Moon, two players who combined for 41 points on 14-20 field goal shooting versus the Lakers last time around. Without Williams' three point sharpshooting and Moon's opportunistic cuts to the hoop the Cavs did not score as much or shoot as well as they did on Christmas Day but they relied on the three pillars that have been their constant sources of strength under Coach Mike Brown: defense (the Lakers shot just .386 from the field, including .333 in the second half), rebounding (48-43 advantage, including a 40-27 landslide in the final three quarters) and the brilliance of LeBron James (37 points, nine assists, five rebounds, two steals, one blocked shot, 13-25 field goal shooting). James started slowly (six points on 2-5 shooting in the first quarter) and he connected on just one of his nine three point shots but he delivered 12 points on 5-7 shooting in the fourth quarter. James certainly authored an MVP level performance but this game should put to rest any questions about Cleveland's depth or Cleveland's supposed offensive deficiencies--the depleted Cavs beat a well rested Lakers team that owns the best record in the NBA and is at full strength.

Shaquille O'Neal played the "Big Bill Cartwright" role to perfection with 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting plus six rebounds and three assists in 28 minutes. O'Neal's season highs this year (21 points, 11 rebounds) are below what he averaged during his prime but that just shows how misleading numbers can be without context: the Cavs won a league-best 66 games last year and would likely have at least come close to matching that total this season even without acquiring O'Neal--but O'Neal has provided an important physical presence in both wins over the Lakers plus a victory versus the Orlando Magic, two teams that had their way versus Cleveland last season. It is hard to imagine a less pleasant task for a low post defender than trying to keep O'Neal out of the paint while also dodging O'Neal's sledgehammer elbows (although Cartwright was not nearly as physically imposing as O'Neal, his "educated elbows" connected with many players and made them think twice about entering the paint); young Lakers' center Andrew Bynum--who is averaging 15.4 ppg and 8.5 rpg this season--was rendered ineffective by O'Neal in both games, managing just four points (on 2-5 shooting) and six rebounds in the first meeting and seven points (on 3-5 shooting) plus eight rebounds on Thursday. O'Neal has also had an obvious effect on Pau Gasol, who scored just 11 points on 4-10 shooting on Christmas Day and was even less efficient yesterday (13 points on 5-14 shooting).

The Lakers jumped out to a 9-0 lead and had a 27-18 advantage at the end of the first quarter but that was just fool's gold; Kobe Bryant scored 12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting in the opening stanza but that type of production and efficiency is not sustainable for 48 minutes against an outstanding defensive team, particularly when none of his teammates came to play with any energy, heart or toughness. Bryant finished with 31 points on 12-31 shooting, adding four assists and two rebounds. This was game one of an eight game road trip for the Lakers, which partially explains why Coach Phil Jackson sat Bryant out for the first half of the fourth quarter; the other reason, as Bryant himself mentioned after the game, is that Jackson wanted to see what kind of production the second unit could deliver. Although the Lakers' bench hardly excelled, they did manage to keep the score close and Cleveland only led 83-80 when Bryant returned at the 5:23 mark of the final period. However, several of the Lakers' next possessions came straight out of their playbook from 2006 and 2007, with Bryant being forced into what I call "hand grenade" shots after his teammates were unable or unwilling to create open shots: a "hand grenade" is when a player receives the ball with little time left on the shot clock (in other words, the ball is about to "explode" in his hands if he does not fire off a quick shot). First, Bryant had to launch a tough fadeaway after the Lakers exhausted almost all of the shot clock. After a James jumper put the Cavs up 85-80, Bryant was forced to chuck a "hand grenade" three pointer at the end of another futile Lakers' possession. This is one example of why some of those statistics about "clutch play" are misleading, if not outright bogus; an individual player's field goal percentage reflects not just his shooting ability or his "clutchness" but also the overall hierarchy on a team: when everything breaks down, the ball is going to find its way to Bryant, not to a lesser player. "Hand grenade" shots, desperation heaves from long distance with fractions of a second remaining on the game and/or shot clock and other similarly low percentage tries do not really tell us much about how "clutch" a particular player is or even how capable he is of creating a shot for himself in a "normal" situation.

Eventually, the Lakers went back to an action that has been very effective for them the past two years: the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll play. Successfully running that play led to two Bryant free throws plus a Bryant jumper that tied the score at 87. A tough lefty layup by James put the Cavs up 89-87 but then the Lakers again ran the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll; this time, Bryant came off of the screen, froze O'Neal with a deft hesitation move and then blew by O'Neal into the paint. Several Cavs converged on Bryant, whose layup attempt rolled off of the rim, but Gasol had a free run to the hoop thanks to the attention drawn by Bryant. Gasol snared the rebound and Daniel Gibson fouled Gasol, who did not go up strong enough to finish the play against the 6-2 point guard. Gasol then compounded this shortcoming by missing both free throws. Since only 24 seconds remained, the Lakers were forced to foul. James split a pair of free throws--leaving the door open for the Lakers--but Ron Artest was called for a loose ball foul and Anderson Varejao drained two free throws to essentially seal the win.

In addition to James' great performance and O'Neal's stout presence in the paint the Cavs also benefited from fine play by starting power forward J.J. Hickson, key reserve big man Varejao and Delonte West, who started in place of Williams (the Cavs announced before the game that a left shoulder injury will sideline Williams for four to six weeks). Hickson had 11 points on 4-6 field goal shooting plus a career-high 14 rebounds as he notched his first career double double, while Varejao not only made the clutch free throws but also contributed 11 points and eight rebounds. West's boxscore numbers don't look like much (three points, four rebounds, three assists) but there is a reason that he played a game-high 42:50--and it is the same reason that he led the Cavs in minutes played during last year's playoffs: as Coach Brown said after the game, "Delonte's stat line wasn't pretty but I thought his toughness and the way he ran the team was terrific." West is a gritty competitor whose value goes beyond what the numbers say and he had the primary defensive assignment versus Bryant down the stretch in the fourth quarter.

While media members waited for Coach Jackson to deliver his postgame standup, NBA.com's Steve Aschburner--a nice guy who I first met several years ago when he served as the President of the Pro Basketball Writers Association--sidled up to me and asked what I thought about the game. I responded, "The national media has vastly underrated the Cavs. This type of game is why before the season started I picked the Cavs to be the best team in the East." I noticed that on his copy of the box score Aschburner had astutely circled the Lakers' anemic field goal percentage and I added, "The Cavs just suffocated the Lakers after the first quarter--and they play like this almost every night."

Jackson did not mince any words in his postgame remarks, mentioning with a chuckle that the backboard blocked one of Gasol's field goal attempts late in the game. Then Jackson made an even more pointed remark. After noting that Gasol is normally a "very good foul shooter" Jackson declared, "I'm sure that he was still thinking about the missed shot that he had on the play before and he didn't get himself clear mentally." Jackson likely could not be "sure" of such a thing so soon after the game unless this kind of weakness has either manifested itself on previous occasions or was very evident to Jackson based on Gasol's demeanor/words. Perhaps even more disturbing for Laker fans than Jackson's bold statement is that Gasol later admitted that Jackson was right: "I let a couple actions carry over in my mind and I wasn't able to be effective in the last four minutes. When I went to the (free throw) line I was still thinking about a couple other times that I could have delivered or finished plays. I let that enter into my head and it obviously had a negative effect." No one should jump to conclusions about two missed free throws or about a few quotes delivered within 30 minutes of those free throws being taken--Michael Jordan famously said that he failed thousands of times and that is why he succeeded--but this whole situation provides some insight into Gasol's strengths and weaknesses as a player. Gasol is very cerebral--in his pregame remarks Jackson noted that he regularly gives Gasol lengthy, complex books that Gasol enjoys reading--and he possesses a wonderful basketball skill set but NFL Hall of Famer Steve Young likes to say that in football if you think too deeply you can end up all alone; similarly, one of the characteristics that Jordan, Bryant and James share is the ability to forget about previous failures/obstacles and then singlemindedly focus on the next play or the next shot. That is not to suggest that Jordan, Bryant and James are not cerebral--they all obviously possess high basketball IQs--but rather that they know when to turn off the critical parts of their minds in order to remain confident enough in their skills to make clutch plays. Gasol is cerebral enough to think about his failures and honest enough to admit to this in front of the media. Gasol should not be blasted for his intelligence or his candor but he also needs to develop a method to get out of his own way in such situations and rely on his skill set to carry him through instead of dwelling on what happened during previous plays.

"It was a test for us," Bryant said after the game. "We've got another test later on this trip and we'll see how we respond to a physical team against Boston...The mentality has to change a little bit playing against these teams. These teams are physical, tough-minded and hard-nosed type of teams and we have to make some decisions...That's not part of our DNA. We have to step up and match that and still play skillful basketball."

I asked Bryant, "Last year you beat Cleveland twice. This year they beat you twice. What do you think is the difference? Is it something that you are not doing as well as you did last year or something that Cleveland is doing better?"

Bryant answered, "Last year we were probably a little hungrier and played a little harder. This year the two times we played them they were the hungrier team and I think they sensed that they want to win a championship and they want to go after it, so they are playing with a sense of urgency that we played with last year."

Although Bryant smiled and even laughed a few times during his postgame remarks, you did not have to be a psychologist to detect the anger simmering just beneath the surface; it hung in the air around Bryant like dirt clings to the Peanuts character Pigpen, though Bryant seemed to try to soften the rough edges for public consumption. When someone followed up my queries by asking Bryant how the Lakers can get back that hunger, Bryant replied, "I'm going to go to practice and strangle every single one of them." Bryant said that with a big smile and everyone got a good chuckle out of that--including Bryant, who then elaborated, "You just have to go to work every day hard, play hard and practice hard. Have physical practices, things like that. This is the type of game that we are going to face and we have to prepare for that and it starts in practice."

Bryant added that this is why it is so tough to repeat as champion, noting with a wry smile, "We're not the only team in NBA history that has dealt with this. It's something that we have to try to figure out as other teams in the past that repeated figured out. You go through those situations where you play Cleveland, you play Denver, you play teams that have that natural hunger. As you go through the season you just have to try to develop it and nourish it and grow it so that when the playoffs come you are ready to go." I then asked Bryant, "During your first threepeat (2000-02) did this kind of issue come up?" Bryant said, "Yeah, it came up. Absolutely. Absolutely."

Someone mentioned that it seemed like Bryant would have a lot of words to say to his teammates as their long road trip proceeded but Bryant indicated that for now he did not plan to say anything because the most important thing is to get ready for Friday's game versus New York, as opposed to dwelling on the loss to Cleveland. Anyway, Bryant added, he did not need to say anything because his teammates already "know that I'm (ticked) off." Asked how he knew that his teammates realize how he feels, Bryant laughed and shook his head at the absurdity of the question.

Both teams tried to deny that this game had any special meaning but I don't think that anyone is naive enough to believe that. James was very animated throughout this game, often exhorting his teammates and the crowd to get them pumped up. After the game, James at first said "You don't want to look to far into beating one team twice" before conceding "It's a huge win and I can't sit here and say it's just a normal game because it's not." Think about the potential implications not only in terms of homecourt advantage for both teams in their respective conference playoffs but also the fact that if they finish with the same record and reach the Finals then the Cavs would own the tiebreaker for homecourt advantage in the championship series.

It is obvious that Thursday's game helps James in what rightly should be a two man race with Bryant for regular season MVP but it also sends a loud and clear message that--contrary to what many "experts" have been saying--the Cavaliers are very legitimate championship contenders with their current roster.

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

The scariest sight for the rest of the NBA happened about two hours before tipoff: James came to the court to work on perhaps his only remaining weakness--outside shooting. James has been doing this for quite some time, as I have noted in previous posts (including my recap of Cleveland's 2008-09 home opener), and his extra practice is clearly paying off: this season he is posting a career-high field goal percentage (.510) and a career-high free throw percentage (.781) while nearly establishing a career-high three point field goal percentage (.349).

James does his shooting under the watchful eye of assistant coach Chris Jent but Jent is not very vocal during these pregame shooting sessions (Jent has mentioned in various interviews that James is quite responsive to his suggestions between games or during timeouts). James began this session with a barrage of jumpers launched from just inside the three point line on the right wing, making 18 of 38 by my count. James' form has noticeably improved in several ways: he employs the shooter's "gooseneck" followthrough now, he generally lands at or near his takeoff point, his balance is much better and his technique is usually the same from shot to shot (except when James occasionally goofs off and purposely shoots a high arcing or off balance shot). Considering how good his shot looks now I was actually surprised that he did not shoot a better percentage but perhaps he was just getting loose. James then shot a few shots from the top of the key just inside the three point line before making three out of nine top of the key three pointers. James audibly expressed disgust with several of his three point misses before slowing down, concentrating and starting to hit. James completed his perimeter routine with some shots from the left wing (long two pointers, then three pointers) and then he did something that I have yet to see him do in his pregame routine: he went to the left block, took one dribble to the middle and shot a jump hook. He repeated that action several times before trying a few one dribble, fadeaway jumpers to the baseline. James' percentage on the jump hooks left much to be desired (well below 50%), which is probably why we have yet to see him unveil this shot very often in game situations, but when he gets more comfortable with that move he will add yet another weapon to his already formidable arsenal. James also practiced some postup moves from the right block, turning toward the middle to either shoot a short jumper in the paint or else a left handed finger roll.

Twice during James' routine he went to the free throw line; it is good to break a sweat and then try to knock down some free throws, as opposed to shooting them cold (which never occurs in a game unless a player is fouled on a very early possession). James shot 5-6 on his first set of free throws and then returned later to drain five in a row.

After about 20 minutes his serious work was done and James then tried to make some halfcourt shots; I stopped keeping track after he missed his first 11, so when you see footage on TV of him making such shots keep in mind that he probably missed a bunch before finally connecting. One impressive thing that I noticed is that James can shoot from halfcourt--or at least very close to it--by using his regular form; that is a lot more impressive than his underhand or overhand flings from that distance. I remember Michael Jordan making a regular form, halfcourt shot in a game (I think that it was versus Seattle) but very few players have the necessary combination of strength and touch to pull off that feat.

I respect James' work ethic and I am impressed by his dedication; the only thing that I question is his shot selection, both in practice and in games: long two pointers just inside the three point line are the worst shot to take, so I don't understand why James practices them so much or why he shoots them in games. Most coaches will tell you that they want their players to either take that step behind the three point line to get the extra point or else dribble in to get a closer shot, though some coaches prefer that their players simply catch and shoot in rhythm regardless of where they catch the ball. I realize that shot clock considerations and defensive alignments may force James to sometimes shoot long two pointers but I still think that he would be better off either shooting three pointers or 15-17 foot jumpers, because there is limited benefit to becoming a great 22-23 foot jump shooter when the 23 foot, nine inch shot is worth a full point more.

***

Prior to the game I spoke briefly with Mychal Thompson, a 20-10 player for Portland (20.8 ppg, 11.7 rpg in 1981-82) who became a key reserve on Laker championship teams in 1987 and 1988. Thompson is currently a Laker broadcaster. I greeted Thompson by reminding him of a line from David Halberstam's classic "The Breaks of the Game"; Halberstam noted that Thompson is a "Mychal of greater distinction" thanks to the unique spelling of his first name. Thompson smiled and said that he vividly remembers Halberstam traveling with the Blazers while researching the book. Thompson added that "Breaks" still "reverberates" decades after it was originally published. Thompson's old coach Dr. Jack Ramsay was at the game and Thompson told me that he and Ramsay had just had a conversation lamenting what could have been if the Blazers had drafted Michael Jordan instead of the star-crossed Sam Bowie.

I mentioned to Thompson that it is remarkable that he played in such a talent-rich era that legit 20-10 players ended up as reserves on championship-contending teams while in the current era there are few legit 20-10 players, period. Thompson chuckled and said that the NBA is "watered down" now compared to the 1980s, noting that back then he had to "guard All-Stars or future Hall of Famers almost every night."

***

During Coach Jackson's pregame standup I asked, "How would you evaluate your team defensively this year compared to last year and how would you compare the way Ron Artest has played defense to the impact that (Trevor) Ariza had last year?"

Jackson replied, "In watching the tape of the game last year--just to kind of compare teams--we started Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum had just gone down with an injury that cost him eight weeks and Ariza was coming off the bench for us at that particular time, which was February. There were a lot of adjustments we made during the season through the endgame--injuries and a variety of things happened to our team, as all teams do (go through such things). Defensively, we are about the same. Ron gives us an individual defender who gives us an opportunity not to have to do as many things defensively to help but he has yet to really flesh out all of the things that he can do for our team. He is still in a learning mode."

I then asked, "What would you like to see him do more? What isn't as 'fleshed out' as you would like it to be?"

Jackson answered, "Offensively, to be comfortable knowing what is a high percentage thing for us and for him. Defensively, I think that he has proven his point."

Ron Artest played solid defense and had a good floor game (seven rebounds, four assists) versus Cleveland but he scored just eight points on 3-10 shooting, including 2-8 from three point range; he is averaging a career-low 11.6 ppg on .420 field goal shooting, slightly below his career .422 norm, though he is shooting .384 from three point range, the third best mark of his career and well above his .345 career average.

***

Bryant became the youngest player in NBA/ABA history to score 25,000 points and just the 19th player to reach that milestone (the wire reports that you may have seen that rank Bryant 15th on the all-time scoring list are neglecting to include the ABA point totals registered by Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Dan Issel and Rick Barry). Bryant's record is likely merely a placeholder for James, who already has over 14,000 points and will likely corner the market on "youngest ever" records before he retires, but what I find fascinating is that Bryant's impressive career total is still a good career behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all-time record of 38,387 points: Hall of Famers Dave Cowens and David Thompson each scored fewer career points than the difference between Abdul-Jabbar and Bryant's career totals! Bryant will have to remain a 25-plus ppg scorer well into his late 30s in order to have a shot at the all-time mark (unless Bryant decides to extend his career past the point when he is no longer an All-Star caliber player, something that does not seem likely considering his temperament).

Interestingly, not one postgame question referred to Bryant scoring his 25,000th point, perhaps because the writers already knew that Bryant would not want to focus on an individual goal after his team had lost.

***

During Bryant's postgame standup I had my first couple close up glimpses of his right index finger, which I had previously only seen on TV and bandaged up. It was bad enough when Bryant suffered an avulsion fracture to his pinkie on that same hand a while back but it is amazing that he is playing with that kind of injury to such an important finger on his shooting hand.

Bryant kept his hand out of view most of the time but I saw enough to notice that there is significant swelling from the base knuckle nearly up to the tip, with the most pronounced swelling around the middle knuckle, where there is noticeable discoloration. I doubt that Bryant can bend any joint on that finger (TNT's Kenny Smith noted earlier in the week that Bryant's finger is so damaged he could not even use to try to tie the drawstring on his shorts).

***

This is the fifth Cavs-Lakers game that I have covered (remember that because they are in opposite conferences, the Cavs and Lakers only play each other twice--home and home--in the regular season). Here are links to my previous Cavs-Lakers recaps:

Energetic Odom Upstages Ill Bryant, Subpar James (Lakers 101, Cavs 91, February 8, 2009)

Fourth Quarter Rally Propels Cavaliers to Victory Over the Lakers (Cavs 94, Lakers 90, December 20, 2007)

Kobe Sizzles, Lakers Fizzle in 99-90 Loss at Cleveland (Cavs 99, Lakers 90, February 11, 2007)

Murray "Flips" the Script in a Big Win for the Cavs (Cavs 96, Lakers 95, March 19, 2006)

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Andrew Bynum, Cleveland Cavaliers, Delonte West, J.J. Hickson, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, Shaquille O'Neal

posted by David Friedman @ 10:31 AM

6 comments

Balanced, Deep Cavs Push Around Lakers

There are a lot of subplots to consider in the wake of the Cleveland Cavaliers' thoroughly convincing 102-87 win over the L.A. Lakers at Staples Center on Christmas Day but first and foremost is that this game represented a complete debunking for a national television audience of the ludicrous statements that far too many so-called experts have made regarding the Lakers' alleged talent and/or depth; this is a subject that I have written about for quite some time, so let's set the record straight once and for all: as I explained in detail last summer, "The 2009 Lakers are Phil Jackson's 10th championship team and they are not as deep as most of the teams that won championships since Jackson claimed his first title in 1991."

Thus far in the 2010 season the Lakers' reserves have been even less reliable than they were in 2009; all of the hype about how talented the Lakers are and how deep the Lakers are is just that: hype. The Lakers are led by the best all-around player in the NBA (Kobe Bryant) and they have a solid second star in Pau Gasol--who was never seriously touted as an "elite" player until he came to the Lakers and reaped the benefits of playing alongside Bryant--plus an excellent defender/solid third scoring option in Ron Artest. Starting center Andrew Bynum has showed flashes of ability--like many players in the NBA--but the reality is that he has yet to have even one full season in which he stayed healthy and remained consistently productive (and the abrupt recent downturn in his statistics suggests that this season will not break that trend even if he manages to finally stay healthy for a full year). Derek Fisher is a wily veteran point guard who is probably more valuable to the Lakers than he would be to just about any other team--due to his maturity, his knowledge of the Triangle Offense and his ability to hit timely shots in the playoffs even if he has not shot well for significant stretches during the regular season--but it is worth keeping in mind that other recent Conference Finalists all have bona fide All-Star caliber point guards (Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams, even Rajon Rondo, a player who has yet to make the All-Star team but certainly plays at an All-Star level at least in terms of his floor game). Lamar Odom has long since "jumped the shark" from underrated to overrated in the sense that writers and TV commentators now regularly hype his virtues with complete disregard to his actual production and value: Odom has not once been voted to an All-Star or All-NBA Team by fans, media members or coaches and this season he is averaging less than 9 ppg while shooting less than .430 from the field and yet people--even the normally sensible, insightful and reasonable Jeff Van Gundy--speak about Odom as if he is a great player instead of what Odom really is: a talented enigma who simply does not bring forth maximum effort and maximum concentration on a nightly basis. Odom has been that way for his entire 11 year career so it is foolish to imagine that he will suddenly change; he is a good, solid NBA player who can show flashes of greatness but that is not even close to the same thing as actually being a great player. Anderson Varejao is a more valuable--and more productive--player than Odom. So what if Varejao is not a ballhandler or three point shooter--the truth is that Odom is not nearly as adept at either of those skills as many people think, so it is actually a disadvantage for the Lakers that he handles the ball and shoots as many perimeter shots as he does. The Lakers would be better off if Odom simply played good defense every night and dove to the hoop from the weak side for layups and tipins--things that Varejao does more often and with greater efficiency than Odom. When the Lakers are really clicking their best offensive set involves Gasol setting a screen for Bryant while Odom either dives to the hoop along the baseline or else pops up to the top of the key to be a pressure release player who receives a pass from Bryant or Gasol and then reverses the ball to the open man on the weakside. When Odom goes coast to coast he is just as apt to turn the ball over or shoot a brick layup as he is to do anything productive. At least Varejao understands his role and his limitations.

Yes, this was just one game and I well understand that no one should jump to conclusions about anything based on a small sample size of information--but the point is that this game was not an aberration but rather a demonstration of the validity of several observations that I have made about both teams:

1) The Cavs are a defensive-minded team that is consistently underrated by the national media--and even some of the media members who cover the team--because too many people focus on Cleveland's alleged offensive deficiencies instead of giving Coach Mike Brown the praise he deserves for turning the Cavs into Spurs East without having a mobile, perennial All-Defensive Team big man like Tim Duncan patrolling the lane erasing any defensive lapses by his teammates. For the past several years I have consistently picked the Cavs to go farther than most other commentators and I have been right; even last year's loss to Orlando--which many people still blame on Cleveland not being able to guard Rashard Lewis--had at least as much to do with Mo Williams' shooting slump as anything else; if Williams had simply continued to shoot the ball at his normal percentage then the Cavs likely would have won the series (which is not at all to suggest that Danny Ferry was wrong to seize the opportunity to strengthen the roster by adding Shaquille O'Neal, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon instead of standing pat with a championship-caliber team that won a league-best 66 games).

2) The Lakers' rise to championship-level prominence in the past two and a half seasons is significantly linked not only to Bryant's individual excellence but also to his leadership, to the way that he drives his teammates to work harder and to the way that his very presence makes the game easier for them by attracting so much defensive attention. Bryant is not playing with multiple All-Stars--like the Celtics have--nor does his team have the depth and roster flexibility that the Cavs and Magic do. Bryant has been celebrated for a lot of his individual accomplishments yet the two most remarkable things that he has done have not been fully appreciated: first he carried the Lakers to the playoffs with Kwame Brown at center, Smush Parker at point guard and Luke Walton at small forward and then when the Lakers upgraded Bryant's supporting cast he transformed them into championship contenders even before Pau Gasol's arrival.

3) In my preview of the Lakers-Cavs game I mentioned five matchups worth watching and I described how four of them could turn in Cleveland's favor (later in this post I'll discuss what happened in the fifth matchup, namely the battle between MVP candidates Kobe Bryant and LeBron James):

a) Although Shaquille O'Neal did not get Andrew Bynum into foul trouble as I said that he likely would, O'Neal outplayed Bynum to the point that the Lakers' much touted young center was a complete non-factor (four points, six rebounds, 2-5 field goal shooting) while O'Neal had a quintessential "Big Bill Cartwright" performance, making an impact felt well beyond his numbers (11 points, seven rebounds, 5-8 field goal shooting), much like Cartwright anchored the paint for Michael Jordan's first three championship teams. Meanwhile, even though Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a poor shooting night, he used his length to grab a game-high tying nine rebounds and to help harass Gasol into a subpar performance (11 points, six rebounds, 4-11 field goal shooting).

b) I suggested that J.J. Hickson might not play much (he started but only logged 10 minutes) and that Varejao is more efficient than Odom and more than capable of negating Odom's impact; Varejao finished with nine points and nine rebounds while shooting 4-5 from the field while Odom tallied six points and five rebounds while shooting 2-4 from the field. Odom also ran his mouth so much that he got ejected.

c & d) I noted that the Cavs have much more depth than the Lakers and are a vastly superior three point shooting team, concluding "if O'Neal makes the most of his early touches, Delonte West plays like he did last season and Mo Williams makes open jump shots then the Cavs are certainly capable of winning." O'Neal did his part, West contributed seven points, four assists, three steals, two rebounds and a blocked shot in just 17 minutes and Williams scored a team-high 28 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, including 3-3 from three point range. The Cavs' reserves outscored the Lakers' reserves 31-17--nearly matching the margin of victory--but even those totals are deceptive because the Lakers' reserves scored some meaningless garbage time points. The reality is that the Cavs blew the game open in the second quarter with James on the bench as the Cavs' reserves dominated the Lakers' reserves even with Bryant in the game to anchor his skittish second stringers (Bryant did not get a rest until the fourth quarter when the outcome was no longer in doubt). We hear ad nauseam that James is doing more with less than Bryant is and that if the two switched teams then the Lakers would be unbeatable while the Cavs would not be as good as they are now but the evidence does not support either thesis; the Lakers won the 2009 Championship with Bryant and have made the Finals the past two seasons, so any objective person understands that it is more than a bit of a stretch to say that someone else could do more with the Lakers than Bryant has--and the Cavs' roster is stocked with players who have started for playoff teams, so why are we supposed to believe that they would collapse without James or even that they would be worse if Bryant replaced James? The Cavs are more physical than the Lakers--this was true even last season before O'Neal arrived--and they are more consistently defensive-minded, so in some ways Bryant would feel more at home with the Cavs than he does with Lakers' teammates who he constantly has to push and prod to be tougher and to grind things out defensively. Since Bryant made it to the playoffs with the immortal Kwame/Smush duo I have trouble believing that he could not match what James did last year with an Ilgauskas-Varejao frontline supported by a Mo Williams-Delonte West backcourt.

While we are on the subject of who could do what with various rosters, note that on the same day that the Lakers fell flat on their faces versus the Cavaliers the Boston Celtics traveled to Orlando sans 2008 NBA Finals MVP Paul Pierce and beat the reigning Eastern Conference Champions 86-77. Some fool once posted a comment here to the effect that he'd like to see Kobe Bryant get a non-serious injury--just bad enough to keep Bryant out of the lineup--to refute my contentions about just how vital Bryant is to the Lakers' success. There are two problems with his "thought experiment":

(1) Bryant does not miss games due to non-serious--or even some serious--injuries, as indicated by the fact that he is currently playing with a broken index finger on his shooting hand and the fact that he as been playing for nearly two years with a similar avulsion fracture to his right pinkie finger that has never been surgically fixed. You may recall that not long before Bryant first suffered the injury to his pinkie LeBron James missed five games because of a left index finger sprain (I am not questioning James' toughness at all, but merely pointing out that Bryant's toughness/pain threshold/will to win are off the charts even in comparison to other tough minded, elite athletes).

(2) In nearly every Lakers' game we get a mini-glimpse of what the team would look like without Bryant when Coach Phil Jackson tries to get him some rest and then has to hustle him back on the court before the Lakers either blow their lead or turn a small deficit into a major catastrophe. On numerous occasions last season and this season Jackson has expressed his extreme dissatisfaction about having to bring Bryant back to save the day after he had hoped that the reserves could close things out on their own, so if you do not believe my version of events then just take a listen to Jackson's postgame comments sometime.

What about the much hyped showdown between Bryant and James? As I predicted, they rarely guarded each other. Artest drew the assignment of covering James, though Bryant switched on to James for a few possessions in the fourth quarter but by that time the game was all but out of reach. James stuck with Artest because no other Cav wing player can match Artest's physicality and also because the Cavs can send a veritable wave of lean, athletic players at Bryant: Parker, Moon and the undersized but bulldog tough West. Frankly, neither Bryant nor James played an exceptional game by their lofty standards: Bryant led the Lakers in points (35), rebounds (nine) and assists (eight) but his near triple-double is somewhat offset by his uncharacteristically inaccurate shooting from the field (11-32); on the other hand, even if Bryant had shot .500 from the field the Lakers still would have lost by five points (unless the five additional makes were all three pointers but that is asking a lot even of Bryant). The know nothing critics--starting with Stuart Scott during the halftime show--will carp that Bryant shot too much but that is because they do not understand the game. As Jackson likes to say, Bryant will sense a vacuum and try to fill it, which means that if his teammates are playing tentatively then Bryant will assume a bigger burden--and even though Bryant shot more than 30 times the eight assists show that Bryant was indeed passing the ball and anyone who watched the game knows that he could have had 10 or 12 assists if his teammates had canned some wide open shots that he spoonfed to them. Meanwhile, James' line looks less dominant but more efficient than Bryant's (26 points, nine assists, four rebounds, 9-19 field goal shooting) but those numbers do not tell the whole story. James scored most of his points after the outcome had been decided and his field goal percentage was a lackluster 7-17 until he hit a couple meaningless buckets near the end of the game. James also had a game-high seven turnovers, though to be fair it must be noted that just like his last two field goals were meaningless the same could be said of his last two turnovers.

The Lakers' loss to the Cavaliers surely brings back vivid memories to Laker fans of their team--specifically, their big men--being pushed around and bullied in the 2008 NBA Finals by the Boston Celtics and of the Celtics throwing waves of defenders at Bryant while ignoring virtually everyone else and daring Bryant's teammates to make a shot or make a play. The Lakers overcame that problem last season--though beating the Nuggets and then the Magic is not quite the same thing as beating the 2008 Celtics--and if they want to repeat as champions then they will either have to get tougher or hope that Orlando finds some way to slip past Boston and Cleveland once again.

So if I am so smart why did I not pick the Cavs to win the game when I wrote my preview article? Simple--this looked like a "scheduling loss" for the Cavs; the Cavs were playing their fourth game in six nights while the Lakers were not only at home but also had been off for three days (and had spent most of the first part of the season playing at home). In my preview I indicated that the Cavs have the technical capability to match up well with the Lakers--which could be very important if the teams meet in the playoffs (i.e., the NBA Finals) when both teams would have adequate rest. Both the Cavs and the Celtics actually match up better with the Lakers than the Magic do (as we saw in last year's Finals)--I am still not totally convinced that the Lakers would have beaten the Cavs in last year's Finals if the Cavs had not fallen to Orlando but we'll never know the answer to that (because the Cavs have since revamped their roster).

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Andrew Bynum, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Pau Gasol, Shaquille O'Neal

posted by David Friedman @ 1:38 AM

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Matchups to Watch in the Cavs-Lakers Game

The 22-8 Cleveland Cavaliers have won seven of their last eight games and have gone 2-1 so far on their four game road trip, which concludes with a Christmas Day showdown versus the defending NBA Champion L.A. Lakers. The Lakers own a league-best 23-4 record, are riding a five game winning streak and have won 16 of their last 17 games. Here are some key matchups that will determine which team wins this much anticipated and much hyped game:

1) Kobe Bryant versus LeBron James

What, did you think that I was going to feature Sasha Vujacic versus Danny Green? Naturally, much attention will be focused on the battle between 2008 regular season MVP/2009 Finals MVP Bryant and 2009 regular season MVP James. They will likely guard each other at some point during the game and they will each have a lot to do with their respective teams' success at both ends of the court. The Lakers brought in Ron Artest as Trevor Ariza's replacement specifically to guard bigger small forwards like James, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony, so I expect Artest to guard James at the start of the game and likely for most of the contest (a bit of a change from the past when Bryant would guard James more than James would guard Bryant). It will be very interesting to see what the Lakers do defensively late in the game if the score is close. Will Bryant insist on guarding James in that situation? Now that the Cavs have Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon in addition to Delonte West I think that James may guard Bryant even less often one on one than he did in previous seasons, though foul trouble (and West's availability) will influence Coach Mike Brown's thought process in that regard; also, James is much better equipped physically to check Artest than the other Cavs' wing players are, so James will likely guard Artest when Artest is in the game (Parker, Moon or West could easily guard Ariza, a player who is both less physically imposing and less offensively versatile than Artest).

This season, Bryant--who for many years has possessed the best all-around skill set in the league--added yet another weapon to his arsenal, training with Hakeem Olajuwon to learn the finer points of the post game. Bryant was already an excellent scorer in the post, but working with Olajuwon enabled Bryant to add more moves to his repertoire; early in the season before Bryant broke the index finger on his shooting hand and before the injured Pau Gasol returned to action, Bryant ranked second in the league in points in the paint, an amazing statistic for a shooting guard. In many ways, Bryant is playing better than ever, posting a career-high .488 field goal percentage, tying his career-high with a 2.2 spg average (third in the NBA) and producing the fourth highest scoring average (29.3 ppg) of his illustrious career.

James is having another excellent season, featuring career-high shooting numbers from the field, the free throw line and beyond the three point arc in addition to his usual well rounded stat line of roughly 28 ppg-7 rpg-7 apg. However, despite his size and athletic gifts he has still not developed a post game, nor is he a reliable midrange jump shooter. According to the NBA.com "Hot Spots" tracker, James is "cold" in four of eight midrange areas, "lukewarm" in three of them and "hot" in just one (left baseline); in contrast, Bryant is "hot" in four midrange areas, "lukewarm" in three and "cold" in just one (ironically, left baseline). Overall, Bryant has six "hot" areas, six "lukewarm" ones and two "cold" areas, while James has two "hot" areas, eight "lukewarm" areas and four "cold" areas. James shoots nearly .700 in the paint but less than .340 outside of the paint, while Bryant shoots .604 in the paint and .423 outside of the paint. James' inconsistent shooting outside of point blank range does not matter so much against inferior teams, because James can simply punish them by going to the hoop at will--but elite defensive teams that limit his drives and force him to shoot midrange jumpers can hold James to a low field goal percentage and induce him to commit more turnovers by sagging off of him and picking off his passes. Although James is a willing passer he still has a bad habit of wasting time dribbling laterally and then settling for long jumpers as opposed to attacking the basket to score, draw a foul or dish to an open teammate.

2) Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol versus Shaquille O'Neal/Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Pau Gasol missed the first 11 games of the season due to injury but largely thanks to Kobe Bryant--who had four games with at least 40 points during that stretch, with the Lakers winning each time--the Lakers went 8-3. The Lakers are 15-1 with Gasol, losing only on the road versus Utah in the game after Bryant broke the index finger on his shooting hand. Ever since coming to L.A., Gasol has thrived as the team's second offensive option; he never shot better than .538 from the field during his six-plus seasons in Memphis but he shot .589 in 27 games as a Laker in 2007-08, .567 in 81 games last season and .543 so far this season. Players do not generally become better rebounders as they get older--rebounding is usually a task for the young and bouncy-legged--but Gasol is averaging a career-high 12.6 rpg this season, nearly three rpg better than his previous best. A significant portion of that increase has taken place on the offensive boards, where Gasol is averaging a career-high 4.0 rpg; defenses are tilted so heavily in Bryant's direction that Gasol and Andrew Bynum have a free run to the offensive boards, much like Allen Iverson's big men did during Iverson's prime (except that Bryant has a better shot selection and higher shooting percentage than Iverson).

Bynum emerged as the Lakers' second offensive option during Gasol's absence but since Gasol returned Bynum has not only regressed offensively but his rebounding has also dropped off tremendously; Bynum is a young player whose effort defensively and on the boards is still far too linked to how many touches he gets offensively and you can be sure that Lakers' Coach Phil Jackson is once again emphasizing to Bynum that when the Lakers are at full strength his primary role is defender/rebounder, not scorer.

The Cavaliers acquired Shaquille O'Neal specifically to match up better versus physical post players like Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Kendrick Perkins, the starting centers for championship contenders Orlando, L.A. and Boston respectively. When O'Neal is in the game the Cavaliers should not have to double team any of those guys and thus should be able to guard more effectively on the perimeter instead of always having to rotate defenders. In the first quarter, the Cavaliers generally make a concerted effort to feed the ball to the "Big Bill Cartwright" in the post, so the challenge for Bynum will be to avoid picking up two quick fouls--but I suspect that Bynum will fail that test, thus providing Lamar Odom with extra playing time and forcing the Lakers to use a smaller lineup with Gasol at center and Odom at power forward.

Two-time All-Star Zydrunas Ilgauskas started nearly every NBA game that he played in prior to this season but the acquisition of O'Neal relegated Ilgauskas to a reserve role. A very reliable outside shooter who loves to run the pick and pop play with James, Ilgauskas struggled with his shot early in the season--probably adjusting to his new, reduced role--but he has shot .543 from the field in December, highlighted by a season-high 25 points on 10-14 field goal shooting in Cleveland's 117-104 overtime victory versus Sacramento on Wednesday. When Ilgauskas is in the game his shooting ability will force Bynum or Gasol to leave the paint to guard him, opening up lanes for other Cavs to drive or cut to the hoop. When Ilgauskas goes in the paint his length makes him an effective rebounder--particularly on the offensive glass--and enables him to alter/contest shots.

3) Lamar Odom versus Anderson Varejao/J.J. Hickson

Some Cleveland observers who do not watch many Lakers games have developed an exaggerated fear of Odom's capabilities, largely based on Odom's 28 point, 17 rebound outburst when the Lakers beat the Cavs in Cleveland last February. Contrary to what some people think, Odom's production did not necessarily reflect some fatal weakness in the Cavs' frontcourt; Odom took a season-high 19 field goal attempts (in part because Bryant was under the weather) and thus tallied a season-high point total but he is unlikely to match those numbers against Cleveland--or anyone else: Odom had just six other 20 point games all season long and in the Lakers' other game against the Cavs he managed just eight points and 10 rebounds. Odom is averaging a career-low 8.6 ppg on .423 field goal shooting (his worst field goal percentage since 2001-02) and has yet to exceed 16 points or 14 rebounds in a game this season. Anderson Varejao's scoring and rebounding numbers are nearly identical to Odom's but Varejao is shooting .509 from the field. J.J. Hickson's role has expanded this season but if he is not in tune defensively and on the boards then Coach Brown will likely use a quick hook and insert Varejao.

4) Bench play

As I explained last summer, "the 2008 Lakers were a deep team but not quite as talented as some people suggested. Although the 2008 Lakers had eight players who averaged at least 16.8 mpg in the playoffs, the talent level at the top of their rotation could not be compared with the Celtics, whose roster includes three future Hall of Famers. This year's Lakers are probably a little more talented than last year's Lakers but because the production of several bench players declined markedly the 2009 Lakers are not as deep as the 2008 Lakers; only six Lakers averaged at least 16.8 mpg in the 2009 playoffs." The 2010 Lakers strengthened their starting lineup by swapping Ariza for Artest but their bench is at least as thin as it was last season. As NBA TV's Chris Webber correctly observed after the Lakers needed every one of Bryant's 40 points to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, "They have Shannon Brown coming off the bench and that's about it." Technically, Odom is a bench player as well but the way that the Lakers use him he is a de facto starter; Odom and Bynum split the minutes as the big who plays opposite of Gasol and Odom is often the closer at that spot, which is more important than being designated as a starter. Webber added, "You look at other teams with the guys they have coming off the bench they have a whole other team ready to bring energy and a different type of play."

Webber's description of what the Lakers lack fits Cleveland's roster perfectly: the Cavaliers currently are bringing three players off of the bench who started for the team that led the NBA with a 66-16 record last season (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao and Delonte West). The Cavs' top five reserves--Ilgausaks, Varejao, West, Daniel Gibson and Jamario Moon--have all started playoff games at some point during their careers; other than Odom--who, as mentioned above, is not playing particularly well or efficiently this season--the Lakers' top reserves are Brown, Jordan Farmar and Josh Powell. While the Cavs have 10 players who average at least 18.6 mpg and have appeared in at least 20 games, the Lakers' ninth man is the seldom used Josh Powell (10.8 mpg in 21 games, .387 field goal percentage) and their 10th man is the oft-injured Luke Walton (10.6 mpg in just nine games, .424 field goal percentage). Sasha Vujacic--who was a decent reserve during the 2008 regular season but who did not perform well in that year's playoffs and has not been the same since then--is averaging just 6.6 mpg (13th on the team) and shooting just .375 from the field; the self-nicknamed "Machine" seems to be broken beyond repair.

5) Three point shooting

The Lakers and the Cavs are both just a little bit above the league average for three pointers attempted per game but the Cavs rank second in the NBA in three point field goal percentage while the Lakers only rank 20th. Both teams do an excellent job of defending against the three point shot: the Lakers lead the league in that category, while the Cavaliers rank fifth. Four Cavaliers have attempted at least 70 three point shots--Mo Williams, LeBron James, Anthony Parker and Daniel Gibson--and three of those players are shooting well over .400 from beyond the arc, with Parker and Gibson ranking first and second in the league in three point field goal percentage. Delonte West has shot just 1-12 from three point range in spot duty this season as he battles personal and legal problems but he was a top notch three point shooter last season (.399) and is certainly capable of hitting big shots from long distance.

The Lakers also have four players who have attempted at least 70 three point shots but only Ron Artest has shot better than .350 from long distance (42-115, .365). Jordan Farmar (24-74, .324) and Lamar Odom (21-73, .288) are hardly pure shooters, so their numbers are not likely to increase by much. Bryant has spent most of the season camped out in the post or feasting on midrange jumpers, so he is on pace to attempt his fewest three pointers since the 2003-04 season. Bryant is shooting just .278 (25-90) from three point range; in a five game stretch after Gasol came back and before Bryant broke his finger he shot 11-23 (.478) from beyond the arc but since suffering the finger injury Bryant has yet to make more than one three pointer in a game and his percentage from that distance will likely not increase much until that finger heals a bit. Derek Fisher has shot 24-69 from three point range, a .348 percentage that is his worst since the 2006-07 season and one of the worst of his entire 14 year career.

The overall key to this game for the Cavaliers is to find a way to contain Bryant without committing so much of their defense to him that Gasol, Bynum and Odom have free runs to the rim for dunks, layups and putbacks. Offensively, the Cavs will try to get Bynum in early foul trouble by posting up O'Neal. If the Lakers have to double team O'Neal and/or James then the Cavs must punish the Lakers by draining three pointers.

The Lakers want to see consistent effort and production not only from Bryant and Gasol but also from Bynum and Artest, plus whichever bench players see action alongside Odom. The Lakers are obvious favorites considering their record and the fact that they are playing at home while the Cavs are playing their fourth road game in six nights but if O'Neal makes the most of his early touches, Delonte West plays like he did last season and Mo Williams makes open jump shots then the Cavs are certainly capable of winning.

Labels: Anderson Varejao, Andrew Bynum, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauaskas

posted by David Friedman @ 5:18 AM

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