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Thursday, July 07, 2011
Analyzing the Collapse of the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers finished with the worst record in the Eastern Conference (19-63) and the second worst record in the NBA behind the 17-65 Minnesota Timberwolves; the Cleveland Cavaliers also won the 2011 NBA championship. I am not delusional, nor am I referring to the way that Cleveland fans rooted for the "Mavaliers" to defeat the hated Miami Heat; the ironic thing about "The Decision" is that LeBron James fled an allegedly inadequate supporting cast in Cleveland to go to Miami only to ultimately lose to a team using the same template that formed the basis for the roster that Dan Gilbert, Danny Ferry and Mike Brown had been building around James for the past several years: a squad with one dominant MVP level player surrounded by former All-Stars and gritty role players who collectively bought into playing unselfish offense and tenacious defense. The Dallas Mavericks refuted the idea that it is impossible to win an NBA championship with the kind of team that the Cavaliers had put together around James--and the Mavericks also refuted two other ideas: that a LeBron James-Dwyane Wade duo would be an unstoppable juggernaut and that LeBron James would have been more successful with the Lakers of recent vintage than Kobe Bryant has been: James not only partnered with Wade but he also had his own Pau Gasol in Chris Bosh and yet it is far from certain that the Heat will match the Lakers' recent run of three straight conference championships/two consecutive NBA titles. The "stat gurus" sold the world a bill of goods when they contended that switching LeBron James for Kobe Bryant circa 2008 would have resulted in more wins and/or more championships for the L.A. Lakers.
James is obviously a very valuable basketball player but it is absurd to say that his departure alone is responsible for the Cavs' collapse--and listening to such nonsense during the 2011 season was a fingernails on the chalkboard experience for any rational-thinking NBA observer, so let's set the record straight once and for all about exactly what happened to the Cavaliers in the 2010-11 season. The Cavs not only lost their best player but they also essentially rebooted their entire franchise from top to bottom: the Cavs fired Coach Mike Brown (the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year) and shortly afterward General Manager Danny Ferry (the 2009 NBA Executive of the Year) resigned. For a combination of reasons, the Cavs did not retain the services of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Shaquille O'Neal and Delonte West, three key players in the team's eight man rotation: Ilgauskas and O'Neal had split most of the minutes in the middle and the Cavs have yet to make up for the significant loss of size in the paint; I mentioned this factor in my season preview and yet I have to confess that even I underestimated just how damaging this would be. West had been the team's most versatile player (and best wing defender) other than James. Some might argue that Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West did not have much impact during the 2011 season and thus the Cavs would have declined anyway even if James had re-signed with Cleveland but that misses the point on two counts: one, those guys played a key role in Cleveland's success (and thus needed to either be retained or adequately replaced); two, if James had re-signed with Cleveland and recruited players the way that he did when he joined the Heat then the Cavs would have been able to put viable players around James much the way that they had done in previous years. The fact that Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West were not top level players in 2011 does not change the reality that they played key roles in Cleveland's success the previous two seasons and thus their collective absences were keenly felt by the 2011 Cavs.
The Cavs had been a very deep team prior to the 2011 season but they began the season with a decent starting lineup and very little bench strength; their margin of error for injuries (or even foul trouble) was quite slim and that is another factor that I should have emphasized more in my season preview: it would have been more precise for me to say that the Cavs could win 35-40 games if everything went right but that a key injury or two would reduce that total to the 25-30 game range. No one could have rationally foreseen that the Cavs would fail to win even 20 games (the yahoo who made that prediction also said that James would lead the Heat to 70-plus wins and a championship, so he was clearly making his picks based not on rational logic but rather on being a biased James fan).
The Cavs' key players were never completely healthy at the same time in 2010-11; Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams began the season with nagging injuries but then the death blow to any hope for the Cavs arrived when Anderson Varejao--the team's only credible inside player--suffered a season-ending injury. Near the end of the season, Coach Byron Scott remarked, "I remember telling my assistants that the one player we couldn't afford to lose was Andy (Varejao). A week later, he was out for the season."
Scott did a solid job coaching the patchwork team that remained after the roster was gutted by the departures of James, Ilgauskas, O'Neal and West plus the various injuries that sidelined key players but he made a strategic error by trying to use the Princeton Offense despite having a roster ill-equipped to run it effectively. Specifically, even if the Cavs had been at full strength they did not have a center who could pass well out of the high post, a deficiency that Princeton Offense guru Pete Carril noted when he was asked about the Cavs late in the season: "When he (Scott) was in New Jersey, they went to the Finals two times and he had the right kind of players for that offense--they were unselfish and they passed the ball. That's not the same kind of team as this. I'm hopeful he'll see he better go in a different direction. If you can't run a high pick-and-roll, you're done for. That's the only thing nobody stops. The Princeton offense has been around for such a long time that I think it may have worn out its usefulness. If he had a center that could pass the ball better, it'd be better." Scott eventually gave up trying to run the Princeton offense but only after the Cavs had already suffered a devastating 26 game losing streak.
After Cleveland lost 99-96 to Dallas--tying the NBA record for consecutive defeats (25)--Jamison said, "Let's be honest. One guy did a lot for this organization, for the city of Cleveland, for the game in general. [But] before the season we had Andy, Mo, myself, a couple veterans here and there. You think this is still a unit that can win and compete. We believed that. And still believe that. [Now] we've just got to keep competing." ESPN's Marc Stein added, "As one Eastern Conference scout colorfully explained in a recent Weekend Dime, Cleveland minus the injured Anderson Varejao and Mo Williams is 'a summer-league team and Antawn Jamison.'"
The depleted lineup that the Cavs trotted out for most of the season bore no resemblance to the deep squad that surrounded James the preceding two years. In case Rick Kamla and others still believe that losing LeBron James was the only significant change for the Cavaliers during the 2010-11 season, here are the facts regarding the Cavaliers' rotation during the past three seasons:
The 2009 Cavs went 66-16 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of LeBron James (3054), Mo Williams (2834), Anderson Varejao (2306), Delonte West (2152), Daniel Gibson (1795), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (1765), Wally Szczerbiak (1527) and Ben Wallace (1314); the same players (in slightly different order) also led the team in minutes per game.
The 2010 Cavs went 61-21 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of LeBron James (2966), Mo Williams (2359), Anthony Parker (2289), Anderson Varejao (2166), J.J. Hickson (1691), Delonte West (1500), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (1339) and Shaquille O'Neal (1240); the same players (in slightly different order) led the team in minutes per game, with Antawn Jamison (32.4 mpg in 25 games) joining the team down the stretch and Hickson and Ilgauskas each averaging 20.9 mpg overall as the eighth/ninth men in a very deep frontcourt rotation.
The 2011 Cavs went 19-63 with an eight man rotation (based on total minutes played) of J.J. Hickson (2256), Ramon Sessions (2133), Anthony Parker (2091), Daniel Gibson (1865), Antawn Jamison (1842), Ryan Hollins (1182), Mo Williams (1065) and Anderson Varejao (994). Williams played in just 36 games before being traded for Baron Davis (who ranked eighth on the team in minutes per game but only played in 15 games as a Cav), while Varejao played in just 31 games. That roster has no quality legitimate big men (other than the injured Varejao) and bears little resemblance to the previous two rosters.
For those who cannot be bothered to compare/contrast the data in the previous three paragraphs, the 2011 Cavs' eight man rotation contained just three players from the 2010 squad's eight man rotation: the inconsistent Hickson--now thrust into the role as the team's leader in minutes played--plus the injured Varejao and Williams, who was limited by nagging injuries before being traded to the Clippers. The 2011 Cavs' eight man rotation also included just three players from the 2009 squad's eight man rotation: Gibson (a non-starting three point specialist in 2009 who started 15 games in 2011) plus the aforementioned Williams and Varejao. If Jamison, Williams and Varejao had been the 2011 Cavs' top three players in minutes played (instead of fifth, seventh and eighth respectively) the Cavs would have posted a much better record. James' departure probably cost the Cavs about 20 wins but the rest of the decline stemmed from the upheaval involved with changing the team's front office/coaching staff combined with the injuries and roster moves that drastically changed the eight man rotation.
It is fine to rhapsodize about LeBron James' greatness as a regular season performer--I picked him as the 2011 MVP--but James' abilities are proven by what he accomplished in Miami, not by the sagging fortunes of a rebooted franchise plagued by injuries, bereft of depth and lacking a legit big man. I fully realize that the Cavs' 2011 season will likely be used indefinitely as an easy punchline to "confirm" James' value but I sincerely hope that at some point people will eventually come to their senses and appreciate the logical points stated in the preceding paragraphs; the discussion of NBA basketball should not forever be dominated by wrongheaded "stat gurus," misinformed media members and amateur writers plucked out of nowhere for 15 minutes of fame as part of the self-proclaimed "Worldwide Leader's" blogging network. The sport--and the writing profession--both deserve much better than that.
The story of the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers has been a tale of two seasons so far; they started out a solid 7-9--not a bad record considering the well documented offseason turmoil that the franchise experienced--but they are currently in the midst of an eight game losing streak, with seven of the defeats by double digit margins. Five of those losses took place on the road and four of the losses were to teams that are expected to be strong playoff contenders (Boston, Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City) but there is no getting around the fact that during most of this stretch the Cavs have looked overwhelmed and--most disturbingly--disinterested, a marked contrast with how hard they played during the first 16 games.
The funny thing is that despite how awful the Cavs have been recently they still are on pace to win more than twice as many games as a certain yahoo predicted that they would win but the measuring stick for a successful season cannot be to simply exceed a ludicrous prediction by an unqualified NBA "expert." Commentators and fans want to pretend that the Cavs' performance this season is some kind of referendum on the strength of LeBron James' 2009 and 2010 supporting casts but that is ignorant. The 2009 and 2010 Cavs were defensive-minded teams coached by Mike Brown and run on the San Antonio Spurs' model, while this year's Cavs have gone in a new direction under Coach Byron Scott, who has a much different personality and coaching style than Brown; Brown was an easygoing coach who hesitated to call out players publicly and whose top strategic concerns all revolved around defense, while Scott is a former NBA player who will publicly rebuke players who do not perform up to his expectations and whose teams run the precise, intricate Princeton Offense developed by Hall of Fame Coach Pete Carril (Carril and Scott were both assistant coaches with the Sacramento Kings). That is not to say that Brown ignored offense or that Scott ignores defense but the Cavs did things a certain way for several years and are now adjusting to a coach who has a different approach and a different demeanor. In addition to the coaching change it is important to emphasize that the 2011 Cavs' roster is significantly different from their 2010 and 2009 rosters. Four of the nine Cavaliers who averaged at least 20 mpg during the 2010 regular season are no longer members of the team; five of the eight Cavaliers who averaged at least 20 mpg during the 2009 regular season no longer play for Cleveland.
Obviously, LeBron James is by far the most significant player who left but the 2011 Cavaliers have a much different player rotation and coaching philosophy than the 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers did. In order to truly have a referendum on the strength of the 2009 and 2010 Cavaliers teams without James we would have to see those rosters otherwise stay intact with the same coach and play a complete season sans James--and don't talk about the Cavs' 2009 and 2010 record in a handful of scattered games without James, during many of which the Cavs rested multiple other starters: that sample size is too small and too skewed to be meaningful.
The current Cavs team, led by former All-Stars Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams plus defensive stalwart Anderson Varejao, has enough talent to win 40 games and claim the final Eastern Conference playoff berth. Why has this team gone into such a tailspin? One game early in a long season should not make or break a team but it is evident that the Cavs are having a "pity party" amongst themselves in the wake of the overblown spectacle surrounding LeBron James' return to Cleveland as a member of the Miami Heat. That Cleveland-Miami game was the Cavs' only scheduled nationally televised contest this season and it was not being broadcast because anyone expected to see a competitive basketball game; no, the interest revolved around a ghoulish fascination with what might happen in the arena: would a fan rush the court, would people throw things at LeBron James, would there be some kind of riot? That is a terrible atmosphere for a basketball game. Cleveland fans hoped/expected that some kind of miracle would happen and that a team that has a legitimate shot at the eighth seed would rise up and beat a team with three young stars that is on a championship or bust mission. The Heat have a few weaknesses but the Cavs are not currently able to exploit any of them: the Heat are vulnerable against teams that have strong inside games and/or a quick, penetrating point guard but the Cavs are also lacking in those areas. James has yet to prove that he can lead a team to victory over an elite squad when it matters most but he certainly has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion against inferior teams when he feels personally challenged (just ask the Washington Wizards, who foolishly engaged in trash talking battles with James during several lopsided playoff series). The spectacle in Cleveland was tailor made for James to have a big game so that the national media could once again fawn over the team that they prematurely anointed as a dynasty in the making. Meanwhile, the Cavs got embarrassed on their homecourt and they alienated their fans by seeming to be too chummy with James. I think that the whole situation negatively affected the Cavs' morale. Is that a valid reason/excuse to go on a long losing streak? Of course not--but anyone who watched the Cavs play before and after the Miami game knows that the Cavs simply have not looked the same since James came to town. The Cavs need to forget about James and the Heat and start focusing on realistic, obtainable goals for this season, namely playing hard every night, outexecuting/outhustling the sub-.500 teams and at least being competitive against upper echelon teams.
Even when the Cavs looked better in the early part of the season, there were some indications of potential weaknesses. The Cavs lack paint presence both offensively and defensively. In recent years the Cavs were a big, long team not just because of James starring at small forward but also because of the presence of Zydrunas Ilgauskas and (last season) Shaquille O'Neal. Yes, those guys did not play huge minutes or put up awesome statistics but if you understand basketball then you know that having a legit seven footer who can play alters things at both ends of the court. O'Neal is a key member of the Eastern Conference-leading Boston Celtics, starting at center in place of the injured Kendrick Perkins; the Heat have gone 13-4 since inserting Ilgauskas into their starting lineup. This season the Cavs have trouble protecting the paint defensively and they have trouble getting into the paint offensively. Anderson Varejao is an excellent player but he is best suited to be a starting power forward and/or a backup center; he is a bit miscast as a starting center.
Another problem is that the Princeton Offense that Coach Byron Scott loves does not smoothly fit with the Cavs' current roster. The Princeton Offense works best when a team has excellent high post bigs who can screen, pass and make jump shots. Varejao is good in pure screen/roll situations as a screener but he does not have the ballhandling dexterity or shooting touch of someone like Vlade Divac, who thrived in this offense with the Sacramento Kings. The Cavs should run more pure screen/roll sets with Varejao and also use pick and pop sets with Antawn Jamison. In certain matchups they should feature Jamison in the post, because he can be very tough to cover down there. The Cavs do not have the option of going big, so they should revel in going small, playing fast, hustling and trying to get uncontested three pointers in transition for guys like Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson and Anthony Parker.
I knew about these problems and tendencies before the season began, so why did I predict that the Cavs would "hover right around .500 for most of the season and to manage to hold on to the final playoff spot"? I thought that the Cavs would probably start slowly--though not quite this slowly--but then round into form in the second half of the season. I also realized that other than the top four or five teams every team in the East has significant shortcomings/weaknesses. The main concern for the Cavs right now is not their record--in an Eastern Conference populated by broken Pistons, nearly extinct Raptors, Wizards lacking special powers, spiritless 76ers and empty Nets it will not take a great record to get the eighth playoff spot--but rather their attitudes. The Cavs are just not playing hard and they clearly do not have enough talent to just coast. The current losing streak will end soon--quite possibly against a team that no one expects them to beat--and I still do not think that it is out of the question for the Cavs to get to 35-37 wins, which could be enough to grab the eighth seed. However, if they don't get their minds right and/or if they suffer an injury to a key player then their season could spiral down the drain, though it would take a collapse of epic and historic proportions for them to end up with just 12 wins!
Why would someone predict that the Cleveland Cavaliers will only win 12 games this season? The simple (and correct) answer is that the yahoo who said that is an idiot but there are some deeper issues worth exploring.
The Cavaliers posted the best record in the NBA in 2008-09 (66-16) and 2009-10 (61-21). LeBron James won the regular season MVP in both of those seasons and he clearly had a lot to do with Cleveland's success but an MVP level player is worth between 15 and 25 wins, not 50 wins. If the Cavs had lost James but made no other changes then it would have been reasonable to predict that the Cavs would win 45-50 games in 2010-11. Keep in mind that in both of the previous seasons the Cavs coasted to the finish line because they had already clinched the top playoff seed; otherwise, the Cavs could easily have added to their 2009 and 2010 win totals.
Saying that the Cavs will plummet from the league's elite to flirting with the all-time record for single-season losses is simply not rational--and yet it makes perfect sense from a certain perspective: namely, if you are biased enough to believe (based on "advanced statistics" and/or personal preference) that LeBron James is not just an MVP level player but that he is far superior to Kobe Bryant then it is only natural to suggest that James' departure from Cleveland to team up with Dwyane Wade (another player who the "stat gurus" consistently rate ahead of Bryant) will not only turn the Miami Heat into an unbeatable juggernaut but also instantly transform the Cavs into the equivalent of an expansion team. This is the same kind of "logic" that led some people to declare that if Bryant and James had switched teams the past two seasons James would have carried the Lakers to 70-plus wins while Bryant's Cavs would not have matched the records that they posted with James leading the way; that is just nonsense but I will focus on James and the Heat in an upcoming article.
Many people apparently anticipated using this season as some kind of referendum on James' greatness and on how much the Cavs depended on James but those people have chosen poorly for two reasons. One, anyone who really understands basketball knows that the Cavs' success was not linked solely to James: the Cavs had a deep and well balanced roster that Coach Mike Brown honed into one of the top defensive and rebounding units in the league. Two, in addition to losing James the Cavs also lost their top two centers (Shaquille O'Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas), the player who led the team in minutes played during the 2009 playoffs (Delonte West) and Coach Brown. The Cavs are a much different team this season, so whether they win 50 games or 15 does not really "prove" how much or how little the 2009 and 2010 Cavs depended on James to post the league's best regular season record; however, if the main holdovers from last year's team (Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Anthony Parker, J.J. Hickson and Daniel Gibson) lead the team to the playoffs sans James that will certainly lend credence to what I have consistently said regarding the quality of the Cavs' depth last season.
Despite the fact that former All-Stars Williams and Jamison have missed multiple games due to injuries, the Cavs currently rank eighth in the Eastern Conference, exactly where I predicted that they would finish. Obviously, the season is young and there is no guarantee that the Cavs will maintain that position but it is extremely unlikely that they will finish with anything close to 12 wins; I expect that they will be better in the second half of the season than they are now because their key players will presumably get healthier and the entire roster will become more familiar with Coach Byron Scott's system.
LeBron Comes Up Empty as Celtics Obliterate Cavaliers in Cleveland
Ray Allen scored 25 points to pace six Celtics in double figures as the Boston Celtics dealt the Cleveland Cavaliers their worst home playoff loss in franchise history, 120-88. A stunned sellout crowd of 20,562 fans booed two-time regular season MVP LeBron James and the other Cavaliers and then left en masse long before the final buzzer of what has to be considered one of the most stunning collapses by a top seeded team in NBA playoff history, a debacle topped perhaps only by Dallas' loss to the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. Granted, this series is not over yet and James may very well lead the Cavs to the two straight wins they need in order to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals but even if that happens it is still unbelievable that the team with the best regular season record in the league for the past two years--a team that has been all but unbeatable at home--has suffered two blowout losses in Cleveland in the past eight days.
Prior to this game much was made of how important it would be for the Cavaliers to contain All-Star guard Rajon Rondo, who erupted for 29 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists in Boston's 97-87 game four win over Cleveland on Sunday. The Cavs won that battle to some extent--limiting Rondo to no points, three assists and one rebound in the first half, though he scored 12 points in the third quarter--but lost the larger war as Boston's Hall of Fame "Big Three" had their best collective performance of the series: in addition to Allen's output, Paul Pierce had 21 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists, while Kevin Garnett added 18 points and six rebounds. Starting center Kendrick Perkins contributed 10 points and seven rebounds, while key reserve big man Glen Davis produced 15 points and four rebounds.
The Celtics outshot the Cavs .550-.412, outscored them 44-30 in the paint and outrebounded them 41-31. Shaquille O'Neal led Cleveland with 21 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, Anthony Parker scored 14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting and Anderson Varejao scored five points with a team-high eight rebounds--but they were the only Cavs who played at or above expected levels and the only ones who displayed any energy. Zydrunas Ilgauskas had five points and three rebounds in a 14 minute cameo, which is about as much as could be reasonably expected after he had been mothballed recently.
There is no way around the fact that the number one story emerging from this game--with all due respect to the excellent effort by the 2008 NBA Champion Celtics, a team that clearly has a lot of pride and determination--is the lethargic performance authored by James: not only were his numbers subpar--15 points on 3-14 field goal shooting, seven assists, six rebounds--but he had very little real impact on the overall course of the game at either end of the court; for most of the night he looked like about the seventh best player in the game. James--who owns the third highest regular season scoring average in NBA/ABA history and the third highest playoff scoring average in NBA/ABA history--did not make a single field goal until the 6:15 mark of the third quarter. James' mysterious elbow ailment has been the subject of seemingly endless speculation but--as I wrote last Friday--I really do not want to hear any more about that: TNT's Kenny Smith righly noted that if James had not dramatically shot a late game free throw left handed versus the Bulls then no one would even suspect that James is injured; James shows no signs of being physically limited and just two games ago he produced a stat line of 38 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in a 124-95 Cleveland win at Boston, scoring a team playoff record 21 first quarter points to set the tone right from the start. Unfortunately for the Cavs, James also set the tone in game five--but this time the tone was one of indifference. James did not attack the hoop, spending most of the game loitering aimlessly behind the three point line. Kobe Bryant was once senselessly criticized for supposedly quitting in a playoff game during which he scored 23 first half points before scoring just one point in the second half but there is a valid explanation for that dichotomy: the Lakers were getting blown out despite Bryant's early productivity, so Coach Phil Jackson decided during halftime that the Lakers should use their "inside man" strategy to attempt to slow the game down. Bryant followed Jackson's instructions and attempted to feed his big men but the game soon got out of hand.
James' performance on Tuesday was not part of some game plan made by Coach Mike Brown; it is vividly apparent that to beat the Celtics the Cavs need to be very aggressive at both ends of the court and James must be the leader in that regard. He failed miserably. After the game, James displayed the same nonchalant attitude that he had after Cleveland's blowout loss in game two of this series, which ironically was the night that he officially received the 2010 MVP trophy. James admitted that the fans had every right to boo as the Celtics pulled away in game five but he also acted as if his bad performance is no big deal because he has rarely had an off night during his seven year career. It is true that James has been remarkably consistent and productive but that does not excuse his lack of intensity while pursuing what should be his ultimate quest: the drive to win a championship. An off night in the fourth game of five nights during the dog days of the regular season is one thing, but James stunk up the joint in a pivotal game five on his own homecourt.
We have already seen several momentum swings in this series as the teams have traded blowouts and proven that they can win on the road. Though history shows that the game five winner of a 2-2 series is the overwhelming favorite to advance, it certainly is not beyond the realm of possibility that James and the Cavs will awake from their self-induced comas, play up to the high standard that they set throughout this season and beat the Celtics two times--but James has seemed so nonchalant during this series (except for game three) that at this point it is difficult to believe that he and the Cavs really have the necessary mental fortitude to beat a proud, championship-level team in an elimination game.
I do not believe in making too much out of one game; James' performance does not invalidate the MVP awards that he earned with consistently outstanding efforts over the course of two regular seasons, but it does show once again why it is so necessary to be judicious about throwing around the title "greatest player ever." Not too long ago, I read and heard some discussions about whether James should already be considered a candidate for that mythical title. In my Pantheon series I made the important point that it is difficult, if not impossible, to select one player as the absolute greatest--but even if it were possible to do so it should be noted that James' accomplishments, while quite impressive, do not yet exceed the individual and/or collective feats of Pantheon members Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Earvin Johnson, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West and Julius Erving.
James' current concern is not so much his place in history but rather making sure that the Celtics do not turn the Cavs' current season into history. Even though the Cavs got blown out in game five they did establish some positive things that they can build on in game six: O'Neal showed that he can still score in the post and get opposing big men in foul trouble, while Parker demonstrated that he can play solid perimeter defense and also hit timely jumpers to loosen up Boston's defense. Antawn Jamison (nine points, six rebounds) is most effective versus Garnett when he is on the move and the Cavs should make a conscious effort to get Jamison more involved in the offense. The Cavs led 29-21 early in the second quarter before the Celtics used a 16-0 run to take control of the game, a pattern that is eerily reminiscent of how the Cavs built early leads versus Orlando in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals only to fall apart later. The Cavs have the necessary personnel to match up with the Celtics and the Cavs have proven that they are capable of playing excellent defense while also being efficient offensively, so game six must consist of 48 minutes of focused energy. This series will not be decided by James' elbow but rather by his mind, heart and spirit, because he and the Cavs possess the necessary physical tools to get the job done.
***************************** Notes From Courtside:
Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a two-time All-Star who was the starting center for Cleveland's 66-16 team in 2008-09 and who was a major part of Cleveland's rotation this season both before and after being forced to go on hiatus for 30 days as part of the Antawn Jamison trade. However, he only made cameo appearances versus Chicago in the first round and he had played just five minutes versus Boston prior to game five. During Coach Brown's pregame standup, I asked him, "I know that you have a minutes sheet that you always go by in terms of your rotation. Was it part of your plan coming into this series that Ilgauskas would really have such a reduced role--or no role--or is that something that has developed as a result of how each game has gone?"
Coach Brown replied, "Yeah, I keep a minutes sheet on a card in my breast pocket. It's like a rough draft, something to go by--like a game plan. When you have a game plan it helps you to prepare for the game. The minutes sheet, although I have it, I don't know if there has been one time in my entire career that I have followed it to the 't.' If you looked at my minutes sheet from the last game you would say, 'That doesn't match what you did.' So, again, it's just a tool to help me think and help me prepare for the game but very seldom if at any time at all have I followed it person by person or minute by minute. I just kind of go by the flow of the game; I threw J.J. (Hickson) in a couple games ago and he played well so I went with him but it wasn't (written) anywhere going into the game that I had Z sitting and J.J. playing. I play who I think can help us out."
***
Boston Coach Doc Rivers received his nickname--his given first name is actually Glenn--because he was such a huge Julius "Dr. J" Erving fan as a kid, so near the end of Rivers' pregame standup I asked him, "Doc, today is the 30th anniversary of Dr. J's famous baseline move. Since you are named after him and rooted for him as a kid, what do you remember about that play and what are the most 'iconic' plays--that is the term SportsCenter used today--that you remember from your career either as a player or as a coach?"
Rivers answered, "That's a good question. I think that as a coach, probably P.J. Brown's jump shot (that helped Boston win game seven of the 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals versus Cleveland)--since we're in Cleveland (laughs). But I do remember the (Erving) play. I was sitting there watching the game--I'm assuming that it was probably tape delayed since most of the games back then were. It was just an amazing play. It was great TV today because they showed all the different angles of it. You appreciate it more now watching the angles than you did then. As a player, I don't know--hell, any play that Dominique (Wilkins) made. He was the Human Highlight Machine: the dunk that he made on Bob Lanier in the playoffs was the best play I've ever seen."
Although the Hawks did lose 3-2 to the Bucks in the first round of the 1984 playoffs, I am pretty sure that the Wilkins dunk over Lanier that Rivers is thinking of actually took place in a January 6, 1984 regular season game and can be seen near the end of his video:
Jim Chones, the 10 year NBA veteran who I spoke with at length during game five of the Cleveland-Chicago series, averaged 10.6 ppg and 6.9 rpg for the 1980 Lakers' championship team. He had an up close and personal view of Erving's baseline move; Chones told me that he shifted toward the baseline to deny a passing angle to Erving but Erving countered by simply hanging in the air until he floated to the other side of the hoop so that he could shoot a reverse layup. Chones said that this was "the best move I ever saw," which is a sentiment shared by many people--though some other ABA veterans (Chones began his professional career in the ABA) insist that during his ABA days Erving did several moves that were even more incredible.
***
The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame announced the winners of the prestigious Curt Gowdy Media Awards that are annually presented to members of the electronic and print media. Cavs radio play by play announcer Joe Tait will receive this year's award for electronic media. Tait has been the voice of the Cavaliers for a total of 38 seasons. Prior to being hired by the Cavs he worked as a pre game host for the Indiana Pacers in the ABA. Tait also briefly served as an announcer for the New Jersey Nets (1981) and Chicago Bulls (1982) before rejoining the Cavs after George and Gordon Gund bought the team from the infamous Ted Stepien. Tait is the 21st winner of the Gowdy Award for members of the electronic media; Doug Collins received the honor in 2009 and previous winners include Hubie Brown, Marv Albert and Dick Stockton.
Jackie MacMullan will receive this year's award for members of the print media. She is the first female honoree. MacMullan wrote for the Boston Globe from 1982 until 2008 and she co-wrote the bestselling book When the Game was Ours with Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. Previous Gowdy Award winners for print media include Pete Vecsey, David DuPree, Mark Heisler, Jack McCallum, Phil Jasner and Bob Ryan.
Boston can win if…the Celtics turn back the clock and recapture the defensive intensity that they displayed during their 2008 championship season. The Celtics will also need to receive strong offensive production from at least two of their "Big Four" (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo) to win any given game.
Cleveland will win because…the Cavs have the best individual player in the series (LeBron James) and the best overall depth. Both teams are defensive-minded but the Cavs can shift lineups from big to small and uptempo to slow tempo much more readily than the Celtics can. Other than the Rajon Rondo-Mo Williams duel at point guard the Celtics do not appear to enjoy any individual matchup advantages: the Celtics like to push teams around but the Cavs can match them man for man in the frontcourt, James has an edge over Pierce at small forward and the combination of Anthony Parker plus Delonte West should be able to contain Ray Allen, though Allen might break out for one big game.
Other things to consider: When these teams faced each other in the 2008 playoffs the Celtics had a hungry trio of Hall of Famers in their primes who had yet to taste championship glory while the Cavs were still getting used to playing together after a series of roster moves--and the Cavs still nearly beat the Celtics. Now the Celtics are older, less dominant and not quite as desperate to win the championship while the Cavs have a superstar in his prime who has yet to win a title plus veteran All-Stars who are either seeking one final run at glory (Shaquille O'Neal) or else a first taste of winning it all (Antawn Jamison, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mo Williams). Over the past two years, GM Danny Ferry molded this roster specifically to match up with the Celtics, Magic and Lakers, so this series will be an important measuring stick for the team's progress.
You can find a more in depth take on this series in my newest article for CavsNews.com (6/19/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
The Cleveland Cavaliers and
Boston Celtics each cruised through the first round of the playoffs with 4-1
victories over Chicago and Miami respectively, setting up a rematch of their
classic seven game 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals duel—but both teams have
made significant personnel changes in the past two years.
Cleveland’s 2008 playoff
rotation (the top eight players in mpg) included LeBron James, Delonte West,
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Wally Szczerbiak, Daniel Gibson, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and
Anderson Varejao, while Sasha Pavlovic and Devin Brown were the only other
players who averaged at least 10 mpg; Boston’s 2008 playoff rotation consisted
of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, James
Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell, with Leon Powe being the only other player
who averaged at least 10 mpg (rookie Glen Davis averaged 8.1 mpg).
Cleveland’s 2010 playoff rotation (the top
eight players in minutes played during the first round) includes LeBron James, Mo
Williams, Antawn Jamison, Delonte West, Anthony Parker, Anderson Varejao,
Shaquille O’Neal and Jamario Moon. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson played
significant roles at various times during the regular season but only saw spot
duty (8.5 mpg and 4.4 mpg respectively) versus Chicago; Boston’s 2010 playoff
rotation (the top eight players in minutes played during the first round) is
Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis,
Tony Allen and Rasheed Wallace. Shelden Williams averaged 18.0 mpg but he only
appeared in one contest—game two—after Garnett was suspended by the league.
Michael Finley played just 8.8 mpg versus Miami.
Only James, West and Varejao
remain from Cleveland’s
2008 playoff rotation (Ilgauskas is still on the team, of course, but his role
has been vastly reduced). James and Varejao are clearly better players now than
they were two years ago, while West overall is about the same player that he
was. Each of the five new players in the playoff rotation is clearly superior
to his predecessor: Williams has replaced Gibson (who, like Ilgauskas, is still
on the roster but with a much reduced role), O’Neal has supplanted Ilgauskas
and Parker has taken Szczerbiak’s spot, while Jamison and Moon are getting the
minutes that went to Wallace and Smith in 2008.
Superficially it looks like
Boston has not had quite as much turnover but even though the top five players
remain the same their roles have changed: Rondo has emerged as an All-Star and
is arguably the team’s most important player, while Garnett—who was the
backbone of the team’s suffocating defense during the 2008 championship run—has
been hobbled by a knee injury and is no longer a dominant rebounder (7.3 rpg
during the regular season, his worst average since his rookie year) or defender
(he averaged a career-low .8 bpg this season). Pierce and Allen have both shown
signs of age at times, though their overall production now is comparable to
their production in 2008. Perkins has improved since 2008, becoming one of the
league’s top defensive centers while also ranking second in the NBA in field
goal percentage this season (.602). A big difference between the 2008 Celtics
and the 2010 Celtics is that the 2008 squad had a deep bench comprised of
playoff-seasoned veterans Cassell, Brown and Posey, plus young big man Powe
(who later suffered a knee injury and is now a reserve for the Cavs), while the
2010 squad has a bench that is much more suspect: Davis is a solid contributor
and Tony Allen has had some good moments, but Wallace has been a huge
disappointment both literally—in terms of the excessive pounds he is carrying
around his midsection—and figuratively.
Although the 2008 Celtics
proved to be one of the most dominant defensive teams in recent memory en route
to winning the championship, the Cavaliers pushed them to the brink, extending
the series to seven games before dropping a 97-92 decision in the Boston Garden
as Pierce (41 points, five assists, four rebounds) and James (45 points, six
assists, five rebounds) staged a duel for the ages. James and Pierce are still
the closers for their respective teams; James is now a consistently effective
jump shooter, while Pierce added career-high three point shooting accuracy (.414)
to his already deadly midrange game.
The 2008 Celtics led the NBA
with a 10.2 point differential and a .419 defensive field goal percentage while
ranking second in points allowed (90.3 ppg); the 2008 Cavs ranked 15th
in point differential, 11th in defensive field goal percentage and
ninth in points allowed, though some of those numbers are a bit skewed because
the Cavs made some trades and dealt with some injuries to key players: by the
time the playoffs rolled around, they were playing at a higher level than those
regular season statistics portray, as demonstrated by how competitive the Cavs
were versus the Celtics. However, one statistic that really jumps out from that
season is that the Celtics ranked second in field goal percentage (.475) while the
Cavs ranked just 27th (.439); perhaps lingering memories of that
Cleveland team’s struggles on offense explain why some people still carp about
Coach Mike Brown’s alleged deficiencies as an offensive coach but the reality
is that the 2010 Cavs are a very potent offensive team, ranking third in the
league in field goal percentage (.485), just ahead of fourth place Boston
(.483). The Cavs have also improved defensively since 2008, ranking in the top
five this season in point differential (second), defensive field goal
percentage (fourth) and points allowed (fifth). The Celtics ranked ninth, ninth
and sixth respectively in those categories this season.
The teams split the 2009-10
season series 2-2 but—as is often the case—you can largely disregard the
statistics from those games: Cleveland’s first loss to Boston took place in the
season opener when the
Cavs were still getting used to their new roster additions, while the second
loss happened on April 4 when O’Neal was out due to injury. Cleveland’s first
win against Boston came on February 25 when the Cavs were nearly at full
strength (missing only Ilgauskas) while the Celtics were without the services
of Pierce, but the second win was a bit more significant: a Cleveland team
without both O’Neal and Ilgauskas beat a full-strength Boston squad 104-93.
One weird statistic about the
2010 Celtics is that they actually did better on the road (26-15) than they did
at home (24-17). That does not bode well for the Celtics, because the Cavs have
been almost unbeatable at home the past two seasons and they are just as good
on the road as the Celtics are, matching Boston
with a 26-15 road record this season. The home team won every game in the 2008
series and has been very dominant in general when these teams have faced off
during recent seasons, but those statistical splits suggest that Cleveland is more likely to get a win in Boston than vice versa.
Cleveland’s homecourt advantage could obviously prove to be
significant if a game seven is necessary but I do not expect that this series
will go the distance. A dominant 2008 Boston
team stacked with three healthy future Hall of Famers barely defeated a Cleveland team that was not as deep or talented as this
year’s Cleveland team, so it hardly would be
logical to expect that an older, less dominant Boston team will beat the Cavs this time
around. The one X factor, as every Cavs fan certainly knows by now, could
possibly be the status of LeBron James’ mysterious elbow injury—but even though
the troublesome joint has caused James some discomfort and even temporarily
affected his play, overall he has been performing at an extremely high level for
weeks despite this problem, so at this point it does not seem that the injury
is likely to get worse in the course of normal game action nor does it seem
likely that it will seriously impair James’ productivity or efficiency.
Cavs Build 22 Point Lead, Coast to 96-83 Win Over Bulls
Several Cavaliers set career playoff highs in various statistical categories as Cleveland used a balanced attack to defeat Chicago 96-83 in game one of their first round playoff series. LeBron James led the way with a game-high 24 points on 9-19 field goal shooting plus six rebounds, five assists and a playoff career-high four blocked shots but he had a lot of help: Mo Williams added 19 points, a playoff career-high 10 assists and four rebounds, while Anderson Varejao scored eight points and grabbed a playoff career-high 15 rebounds. Antawn Jamison had a double double in his first playoff game as a Cav (15 points, 10 rebounds) and Shaquille O'Neal was aggressive right from the start and he had 12 points, five rebounds and four assists in 25 efficient and productive minutes--an excellent box score line for a 38 year old center who had not played in nearly two months after suffering a thumb injury that required surgery. The Bulls' offense was pretty much the Derrick Rose show: the dynamic second year player produced 28 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds but he also turned the ball over seven times and fired up 28 field goal attempts, a large number for a point guard; Rose shot a solid percentage (13-28, .464) but he only earned two free throw attempts, which means that the Cavs defended without fouling, forcing Rose to work very hard to create shot opportunities for himself and his teammates. Joakim Noah spent most of the game in foul trouble--and he wasted a lot of energy complaining about that; he finished with 10 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots. Small forward Luol Deng was Chicago's only other double figure scorer (12 points) but he shot just 5-15 from the field and he had little impact during his 39 minutes of action. Flip Murray pumped in nine points in just 11 minutes, a ratio that he likely could not maintain if given more extensive playing time. The other Bulls were interchangeably invisible for most of the game.
The two big questions about the Cavs coming into this game were how effective O'Neal would be after his long period of inactivity and whether the team in general would be rusty after turning the latter part of the regular season into a second preseason. It did not take long for the Cavs to prove that their fans have no need to worry about either issue--at least not against an opponent as completely outmatched as the Bulls are. Although James missed his first two point blank shot attempts and O'Neal's initial layup attempt also went awry, the Cavs soon asserted their dominance over the Bulls in a variety of ways, taking a 32-18 lead by the end of the first quarter. Jamison got off to a fast start with nine points and five rebounds but O'Neal set the tone with seven points, three rebounds and one assist as the Cavs outscored the Bulls 16-4 in the paint in the first 12 minutes; O'Neal's tremendous presence distorted the Bulls' defense like a badly broken accordion, as the smaller Bulls collapsed into the lane to try to deal with O'Neal and then watched the Cavs use good ball movement to repeatedly create open shots for players left unguarded in the wake of the swath of destruction that O'Neal left.
The Cavs led 56-41 at halftime before scoring 10 points in the first 2:30 of the second half and eventually establishing a 22 point bulge. It seemed like the Cavs could simply name the final score as the Bulls could neither stop the Cavs from scoring nor find a way to get their anemic offense going but then the Cavs began getting sloppy, committing careless turnovers and settling for too many jump shots: in the second half the Cavs shot just 16-39 from the field (.410) after blistering the nets at a .511 clip (23-45) in the first half--and during one extended second half stretch the Cavs shot 9-27 (.333) as the Bulls battled back to trim the lead to 78-71 with 7:25 remaining in the fourth quarter. In theory, that is a quite workable margin for the trailing team with that much time left but the reality--as I mentioned in my series preview--is that the Bulls will struggle to score 85 points against the Cavs so by that stage the Cavs were in effect just a few made baskets away from essentially putting the game out of reach regardless of what the scoreboard said; sure enough, jumpers by Jamison and Williams plus a Varejao dunk increased the Cavs' point total to 86 by the 4:47 mark and then James iced the game by awaking from his fourth quarter slumber (he did not score in the first 9:31 of the final stanza) with a three point play followed by a long jumper at the 1:28 mark that proved to be the final basket of the game for either team.
In his postgame press conference, Cleveland Coach Mike Brown did everything he could to avoid creating bulletin board material for the Bulls and to try to ward off overconfidence by his team; Brown praised the Bulls for being a "good, gritty team that competes real hard" and he emphasized a point that he made before the game (see below in Notes From Courtside) about how well the Bulls "shrink the floor and make the paint look crowded," which is part of the reason that the Cavs took 23 three point shots and experienced a second half offensive drought.
Chicago Coach Vinny Del Negro said that his team committed too many first quarter turnovers and got overpowered on the boards (Cleveland outrebounded Chicago 50-38) but he saw a silver lining because "our guys fought back in it."
O'Neal was not as lively as he has been in some press conferences but with a straight face he offered up some quirkiness/dry humor: first he declared that the exaggerated way that he ambles down court after a particularly impressive dunk is his "Diesel truck with no brakes" move--his message to opponents to get out of the way or get run over; then, O'Neal said that the Cavs are "LeBron Incorporated" while he is just "an unorthodox CEO who has been hired as a consultant." I still think that "Big Bill Cartwright" is a very apt description of O'Neal's current role: a 33 year old Cartwright averaged 9.6 ppg and 6.2 rpg in 28.8 mpg (ranking fourth on the team in scoring and third in rebounding) as the Bulls' starting center in 1990-91 when Michael Jordan won the first of his six NBA titles; this season, O'Neal averaged 12.0 ppg and 6.7 rpg in 23.4 mpg for the Cavs, ranking fourth on the team in both scoring and rebounding.
James and Williams shared the stage for their postgame media availability and a very serious looking James was quieter than usual, often deferring to Williams to answer questions that were addressed to both players. James' most extensive response addressed a question about how deep and talented the Cavs are now; James noted that Jamison is a player for whom opposing teams must specifically create a game plan--something that was not true of Cleveland's previous starting power forwards--and he said that the Cavs can now wear down opposing teams by virtue of the number of skilled big men that they have.
The Cavs are so deep up front that two-time All-Star Zydrunas Ilgauskas--who is still a quite skilled pick and pop player in addition to being a good rebounder--played just nine minutes, J.J. Hickson--a very productive young player who started 73 games for the league-leading Cavs this year--played just 40 garbage time seconds and Leon Powe--a rotation player for the 2008 NBA Champion Boston Celtics who has battled back from knee surgery--was not even on the active list for this game. Thus, depending on matchups, foul trouble and other considerations, the Cavs could literally send out an entirely different wave of three good big men than the crew that wreaked havoc against the Bulls in game one.
***************************** Notes From Courtside:
The Cavs dropped their last four regular season games as Coach Brown "rested" LeBron James and various other key players. In addition to the "rest versus rust" debate there a number of other issues associated with the practice of benching healthy players, including the effect that this has on the league's integrity/competitive balance and the impact that it has on fans who may have only bought one ticket all season long and thus missed the chance to see their favorite player(s) in action (it is easy to say that such fans should have "known better" and thus purchased tickets for earlier games but that option may not have been available for any number of reasons). I am not sure when it became a standard and somewhat accepted policy for healthy players to not play; I may be wrong but it seems to me that when I was a kid some players may have sat out the very last game of the season and/or had their minutes reduced in the final few games but I cannot recall teams deliberately putting an inferior product on the court for several games in a row.
During Coach Brown's pregame standup, I asked him about this: "It seems that in the past more teams played the season out all the way to the end but at some point it became more of a fad or a trend to rest players like you did. When do you think that changed and why do you think that changed?"
Coach Brown replied, "I don't know; I know that when I was in San Antonio (as an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich) from 2000 to 2003 Tim Duncan, at times, or David Robinson, at times, might not have been hurt--this is in the regular season, not just at the end--and Pop would just say, 'Hey, we're going to rest this guy for this game or that game.' So, I've always been around that situation in terms of resting guys whether they are hurt or not hurt. That is since 2000-03. I can't remember when I worked with Bernie (Bickerstaff) or Dan Issel and guys before that if that happened before 2000-03. It might have, it might not have, but I know some of what Popovich has done since I was with him from 2000 on in terms of resting guys."
I then asked, "I was thinking historically in terms of teams that have won 68, 69 or more games; the Bulls won 72 games--those teams had obviously wrapped things up before that last win but they still kept playing their players. Is there something that changed between the 70s, 80s, 90s and now? Or because some of those things happened before you were in the league are you not sure exactly when things might have changed?"
Coach Brown answered, "I got in the league in '92, so I'm not sure what happened before then. I didn't look into it, so I don't know."
For the record, here are some interesting facts and figures about some of the winningest teams in NBA history--none of which rested key players who were not hurt and each of which won the championship:
1) The 1967 Philadelphia 76ers set a league mark with a 68-13 record and won the regular season conference title by eight games but five of their top six players played in all 81 games.
2) Four of the top five players for the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks team that went 66-16 played all 82 games even though the Bucks won the regular season conference title by 15 games.
3) The 1971-72 L.A. Lakers set an all-time wins record--69-13-- that stood for 34 years and won the regular season conference title by six games but four of their top five players played at least 80 games and Wilt Chamberlain and Gail Goodrich played in all 82 games.
4) The 1995-96 Bulls went 72-10 and won the East by 12 games but Michael Jordan played in all 82 games and in the final game of the season Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Toni Kukoc each played at least 24 minutes in a "meaningless" 103-93 win over Washington.
5) The following year, the Bulls went 69-13 and won the East by eight games but Jordan and Pippen each played in all 82 games and they logged 39 and 38 minutes respectively in a "meaningless" 103-101 loss to the Knicks in the 82nd game.
***
Before the game, Coach Brown listed two main strengths of the Bulls, a team that he said has "a record (41-41) that doesn't really speak on how good they are (because of the) injuries and distractions that they had this year." Brown said that the Bulls' best attribute offensively is their ability and willingness to repeatedly drive and kick the ball until they get an open shot, while Brown said that defensively the Bulls do an excellent job of "shrinking the floor" and "making that paint look crowded"--i.e., forcing opposing teams to shoot contested jumpers outside of the paint.
***
The next time you read or hear some foolish person spouting off about Coach Brown's supposedly bizarre player rotations during the regular season, keep this quote from Coach Brown's pregame standup in mind:
"A lot of the things that we do during the regular season--we might not say it to our players or publicly--are for the big picture, which is come playoff time. Because we feel we are a championship caliber team, we make sure we use the regular season to get better for the postseason."
So, when Coach Brown takes out your favorite bench player and inserts a bench player who you do not like this does not mean that you know more about how to allocate minutes than Coach Brown does; sometimes, he uses the regular season as a sort of chemistry lab to test out different combinations of players--and this does not mean that he is not trying to win the game in question but rather that he is trying to ultimately put his team in the best possible position to win in the postseason.
Just minutes after Brown made the above remark, James said that he and Coach Brown talked about this very issue before the season began and they reached an understanding that even if it cost the Cavs some wins early in the season it was worth it for Coach Brown to get a better understanding of which lineups were most effective and which lineups were not as effective. I'd say that Coach Brown's laboratory experiments have worked out pretty well in the past few seasons: best record in the NBA two years in a row, two Eastern Conference Finals appearances (2007, 2009) and one NBA Finals appearance (2007).
***
Prior to this game, James had averaged 29.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg and 7.3 apg in 60 career playoff games. No other player in NBA history who has participated in at least 20 playoff games has averaged at least 25 ppg, seven rpg and six apg.
***
The Cavs have posted the best record in the NBA for the past two years. Since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger, only five other teams have had the league's best record for at least two years in a row: the 1980-82 Celtics (tied with the 76ers in 1981), the 1984-86 Celtics, the 1987-88 Lakers, the 1996-98 Bulls (tied with the Jazz in 1998) and the 1998-99 Jazz (tied with the Bulls in 1998). Except for the Jazz, each of those groups won at least one NBA title.
Just leading the Eastern Conference in wins for consecutive seasons is impressive; the only other teams to do that since the merger are the 1980-82 Celtics (tied with the 76ers in 1981), the 1984-88 Celtics, the 1989-90 Pistons, the 1993-94 Knicks (tied with the Hawks in 1994), the 1996-98 Bulls, the 1999-2000 Pacers (tied with Miami in the lockout-shortened 1999 season) and the 2006-07 Pistons. From that elite group only the Knicks, the Pacers and the latter Pistons crew failed to win at least one championship.
Cavs Shock World, Win Game Without LeBron James: Stunned Bill Simmons Declares that Kobe Bryant is the MVP
Usually I play it straight with my headlines but I just could not resist having some fun this time; Bill Simmons and so many other writers have literally built their careers on making broad statements that are unsupported by facts or logic and you just know that if the L.A. Lakers beat the San Antonio Spurs without Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum while Lamar Odom missed most of the game due to injury Simmons would write a 10,000 word manifesto suggesting that those 48 minutes "prove" that the Lakers could make it to the Finals without Bryant and that therefore LeBron James--who obviously (to Simmons) has no help whatsoever--should immediately be awarded the MVP trophy.
OK, fun time is over and now I will go back to my usual mode of providing serious-minded, objective analysis. I do not believe in making snap judgments about teams or players based on one game or on a small sample size of games: when the Cleveland Cavaliers started off slowly this season I insisted that they would right the ship because of how talented and deep they are; when the L.A. Lakers went 4-1 sans Kobe Bryant I cautioned that it would be incorrect to read too much into those victories, particularly since the Portland Trail Blazers were woefully shorthanded, the San Antonio Spurs had lost five of their previous nine games and the Golden State Warriors are just not that good.
Therefore, I don't think that too much should be made of Cleveland's 97-95 victory over San Antonio; that one game by itself cannot possibly form the basis of a general evaluation of either team. However, the way in which that game is covered/discussed by various media outlets is something that will be interesting to monitor, because the Cavs were without the services of LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal, while the Spurs were missing Tony Parker; it should also be noted that the Cavs will be without Zydrunas Ilgauskas--their backup center most of this season and the starting center for last season's 66 win squad--until at least March 22, when he will likely re-sign with the only team for which he has played during his NBA career. In other words, the Cavs beat a solid Western Conference playoff team despite being without three of the top seven players in their rotation, including the player who should be the consensus regular season MVP choice--and you could actually say that the Cavs were missing three and a half of their top seven players, because two-time All-Star power forward Antawn Jamison only played 21 minutes before being sidelined by a knee injury.
Maybe this was just a one game fluke but this result surely must be confusing to those people who make bold declarations that the Cavs would be a lottery team without James or that James clinched the MVP award when the Lakers went 4-1 without Bryant because it is "obvious" that the Cavs could hardly beat anyone without James while the Lakers (according to some "analysts") did not miss a beat during Bryant's absence. Did Bryant, Kevin Durant or someone else clinch the MVP award because the Cavs put six players in double figures versus the Spurs without James? No--that would be an idiotic assertion to make. James has a Secretariat-style lead in this year's MVP race not because of one game here or five games there but because he has been the most productive player in the league throughout the season; Bryant made it a race for the first five weeks or so but since that time injuries have lowered his efficiency and productivity, though casual fans may be surprised to learn that despite the ups and downs Bryant's scoring average (27.7), field goal percentage (.458) and spg average (1.7) are very similar to the numbers he posted in 2007-08 when he won his first and only MVP (28.3, .459, 1.8): three important differences between 2008 and 2010 are that James has eliminated his skill set weaknesses (free throw shooting, defense, perimeter jump shot), Bryant's floor game has declined somewhat (6.3 rpg to 5.3 rpg, 5.4 apg to 4.8 apg) and Bryant's free throw shooting and three point shooting have been less sharp (.840 and .361 respectively in 2008, .826 and .316 this season). With roughly three fourths of the season already in the books, one great game (or one subpar game) by any particular player or team is not going to significantly add or detract to the body of work already produced by the top two MVP candidates.
While we are on the subject of the MVP race, I don't understand why any names other than James' are even being mentioned at this point. James has been the best player in the NBA this season by roughly the same margin that Bryant was the best player in the NBA in 2006 and 2007 (though, ironically, Bryant did not win the MVP in either of those seasons); Bryant is clearly the second best player (based on the fact that he has led the Lakers to the second best record in the NBA while his overall production has been comparable to what he has done in the previous two years even though he has been less consistent from game to game) and the only issues that need to be sorted out regarding Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony are their placements on the All-NBA First and Second Teams--none of those three outstanding players possess the all-around games that James and Bryant have. For quite some time I have been frustrated by the media's apparent quest to pump up the case of "new" MVP candidates at the expense of whoever is clearly the best player at that particular time: such distorted thinking is why Charles Barkley (in 1993) and Karl Malone (in 1997) won MVPs over Michael Jordan and it also is why Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant--the most dominant big man and best perimeter player of the past decade--only won one MVP each when they should have actually won at least three MVPs each (O'Neal should have won the 2001 and 2005 MVPs in addition to capturing the honor in 2000, while Bryant should have won the 2006 and 2007 MVPs prior to finally winning the award in 2008). James won the 2009 MVP over Bryant by a wider margin than he should have but this season James really should be a unanimous choice (which has not happened since O'Neal captured all 120 first place votes in 2000).
Back to the main subject at hand: What, if anything, can be learned from Cleveland's win over San Antonio? The answer is that this game provided some more evidence that the Cavs have one of the deepest and most well balanced rosters in the NBA. It is important to take a moment to specifically define those terms: "deep" refers to how many players on a team can effectively be a rotation player on a playoff team, while "well balanced" means that a team has sufficient depth at all positions/roles. Without Ilgauskas--a two-time All-Star who will not officially rejoin the Cavs for another two weeks or so--here is the Cavs' current depth chart (some players are listed more than once because they are used in multiple roles):
Center: Shaquille O'Neal (currently injured, but expected to return during the playoffs), Anderson Varejao
Power forward: Antawn Jamison, Varejao, J.J. Hickson, Leon Powe, LeBron James
Small forward: LeBron James, Jamario Moon, Jawad Williams, Jamison, Anthony Parker
Shooting guard: Parker, Delonte West
Point guard: Mo Williams, West, Daniel Gibson
Until Ilgauskas returns, the Cavs lack depth at center, which is why I recently suggested that their winning percentage may temporarily decline while they are forced to play "small ball"; however, the Cavs have gone 5-1 with the small lineup and only have six games remaining (including two meetings with Detroit, a home game against Indiana and a visit to Chicago) before Ilgauskas' projected return so perhaps I was overly pessimistic about Cleveland's chances.
The Cavs are absolutely stacked at the other positions. In addition to their three primary point guards, the Cavs can also use Parker at that spot (he played some point guard for Toronto). James can be a de facto point guard or shooting guard in certain matchups offensively or defensively. Furthermore, once they are at full strength again the Cavs will be able to deploy various "large" lineups with two or three big men paired with different combinations of two or three "small" players ("small" being a relative term, because Moon, Parker and James are each at least 6-6). O'Neal, Ilgauskas and Jamison are legit post up options in the half court set, while James and Hickson are improving their post games.
James, West and Williams can each create shots for themselves and for others; this is an important factor that is too often overlooked: West or Williams can anchor the second unit when James is on the bench and either player can be the primary facilitator for the entire game if James sits out. Few teams have three quality facilitators.
Jamison, Varejao and Hickson all do an excellent job of diving to the hoop for layups/offensive rebounding opportunities. Parker, Williams and Gibson are each shooting at least .415 from three point range, while James, Jamison and West all shoot at least .340 on three pointers.
Objectively evaluating the skill sets and production of LeBron James' teammates does not in any way diminish his abilities or take away from the tremendous season that he is having; it is just the honest, correct and proper way to analyze the sport.
O'Neal Injury Could Imperil Cavs' Championship Hopes
We don't like to think in terms of championships being decided by injuries but one of the best regular season teams in NBA history--the 1972-73 Boston Celtics team that went 68-14--failed to win the title after Hall of Famer John Havlicek suffered a debilitating shoulder injury. While it is true that there is no guarantee that a healthy Havlicek would have led Boston to the championship that year it is worth noting that Havlicek and the Celtics went on to win two of the next three NBA titles.
The Cleveland Cavaliers rolled to the best record in the NBA prior to acquiring two-time All-Star Antawn Jamison for, essentially, nothing (assuming that Zydrunas Ilgauskas returns to Cleveland after 30 days of waiting in NBA-sanctioned purgatory). With Jamison and Ilgauskas in the fold the Cavs have four players who have made the All-Star team multiple times and they boast admirable depth at each position--but that changed when starting center Shaquille O'Neal suffered a thumb injury that will keep him out of action for six to eight weeks.
By the time O'Neal returns, the playoffs will already be well underway and the Cavs will have to scramble to get their rotation set to deal with the likes of 2008 NBA Champion Boston and/or 2009 Eastern Conference Champion Orlando. In my newest CavsNews article, I examine the challenges that Cavs Coach Mike Brown will face in the next two to three months (6/19/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
Don’t be
fooled by Cleveland’s 124-93 rout of the hapless
New York Knicks—the Cavs will miss Shaquille O’Neal during his six to eight
week absence as he recovers from thumb surgery and the Cavs very much need to sign
Zydrunas Ilgauskas as soon as they are permitted to do so by league rules.
“Small ball” with J.J. Hickson starting at center looks good against the Knicks
and for short stretches versus certain teams but a month of “small ball”—even
for a team anchored by LeBron James—is not a championship recipe. While it is
true that the upcoming schedule is not particularly daunting—in the next 10
games before Ilgauskas’ likely return to Cleveland, the Cavs play Detroit three
times, Indiana once and New Jersey once—I am not sure that sans O’Neal and
Ilgauskas the Cavs will continue to win at their current league-best .767 pace;
an “extra” loss or two will probably not matter in the race for the top seed in
the East but it could enable the L.A. Lakers to reclaim the best record in the
NBA: thus, even if the Cavs are at full strength come June they may not have
homecourt advantage in a possible NBA Finals matchup with the Lakers. That is
an important factor to consider because the Finals—unlike the preceding playoff
rounds—use a 2-3-2 format that puts a lot of pressure on the team with the
lesser record to sweep the middle three games, which historically has proven to
be a quite daunting task. Admittedly, that is looking very far ahead into a
hypothetical scenario that makes many assumptions about how both the Eastern
and Western Conference playoffs will unfold but it could turn out that the most
significant result of Glen Davis’s bludgeon/tug job on O’Neal’s thumb is the
determination of the location of game one of the 2010 NBA Finals.
Assuming that
O’Neal returns in time for the second or third round of the Eastern Conference
playoffs and Ilgauskas rejoins the team in three weeks, the Cavs will have an
incredibly deep and balanced team for the stretch run, including four players
who have earned multiple All-Star selections (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, LeBron James,
Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O’Neal) plus 2009 All-Star Mo Williams, Sixth Man
of the Year candidate Anderson Varejao, versatile guard Delonte West and a host
of players who have previously started and/or played significant minutes for
playoff teams (Anthony Parker, Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon and even Leon Powe,
who has looked solid in limited minutes since his recent return from knee
surgery). That is the good news; the bad news is that the NBA playoffs are not
fantasy league basketball: you cannot simply throw the players’ numbers out there
and win.
Newly
acquired power forward Antawn Jamison has fit in very well with Cleveland after
a rough first game with his new team. However, Jamison has had very limited
court time with O’Neal—and no court time at all with Ilgauskas, obviously—and the
next time Jamison and O’Neal are on the court together will be during the
playoffs, hardly the optimum situation for developing chemistry. Chemistry in
this instance has nothing to do with how the players get along off of the court
but rather how they function together offensively and defensively in crucial
moments: when/where to cut offensively, when/where to rotate defensively. It is
one thing to discuss such matters or even to walk through certain scenarios in
a non-contact practice but it is quite different to perform at optimum
efficiency against a good team with a playoff game on the line. The Cavs lost a
few games early in the season before fully integrating their offseason
acquisitions into Coach Mike Brown’s offensive and defensive systems and they
lost two games in a row after Jamison’s arrival; fans are quick to senselessly
blame Coach Brown for supposedly not making the right adjustments but the
reality is that it is not easy for any team to incorporate new players into the
rotation on the fly, particularly when the new players are expected to log
heavy minutes. It is a great tribute to Coach Brown that the Cavs still have
the best record in the NBA despite dealing with injuries to various key players,
Delonte West’s off court problems, the departure of Ilgauskas and the arrival
of Jamison but Coach Brown will face the greatest challenge of his head
coaching career when O’Neal returns in the middle of the playoffs; not only
will the starting lineup change but it is likely that someone who played
significant minutes during O’Neal’s absence could end up out of the rotation
completely, a switch that will not only affect that player but also the other
players who got used to playing with him.
The biggest X
factor of all—literally and figuratively—is O’Neal. Let’s assume the best case
scenario, namely that O’Neal’s thumb surgery and the ensuing rehabilitation
process go off without a hitch—there is still the not insignificant issue of a
soon to be 38 year old player who has not always been known for being in tip
top shape maintaining the necessary fitness level to play big time playoff
minutes versus (in all likelihood) Dwight Howard and/or Kendrick Perkins/Kevin
Garnett/Rasheed Wallace. When O’Neal was a Laker he once infamously declared
that he had suffered an injury on company time so he would heal on company
time; it seems unlikely that at this late stage of his career he will take such
a petulant and immature attitude but even assuming that O’Neal has the proper
mentality it will not be easy for him to stay in game shape without playing in
an NBA game for six to eight weeks.
Also, though
it seems like a foregone conclusion that Ilgauskas will return to Cleveland he, like
O’Neal, will be battling some conditioning issues initially because he will not
have played in an NBA game for a month. This is the time of year when NBA
coaches of contending teams like to have their seven or eight man rotations
set, with all of those players hopefully being healthy—or as healthy as they
can be after an 82 game regular season grind—and fully used to their roles in
terms of minutes, shot attempts, defensive rotations and so forth. The Cavs
will presumably spend the next three weeks playing “small ball,” then they will
likely close out the season and begin the playoffs with Ilgauskas starting at
center and at some point O’Neal will return, moving Ilgauskas back to the bench
and knocking one big man out of the rotation completely; that is a lot of
change for a championship contender to deal with as the regular season closes
and the postseason begins.
No one should—or will—feel sorry for the Cavs. The
Ilgauskas-James-Varejao starting frontcourt propelled the Cavs to the best
record in the NBA last season and will likely perform quite well from late
March until O’Neal comes back. With O’Neal and Ilgauskas in the fold the Cavs
will have the deepest roster in the NBA and I still expect them to—at the very
least—represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals but during the
playoffs the Cavs will have to do an outstanding job of adjusting on the fly
versus tough competition.
"A work of art contains its verification in itself: artificial, strained concepts do not withstand the test of being turned into images; they fall to pieces, turn out to be sickly and pale, convince no one. Works which draw on truth and present it to us in live and concentrated form grip us, compellingly involve us, and no one ever, not even ages hence, will come forth to refute them."--Alexander Solzhenitsyn (Nobel Lecture)
"The most 'popular,' the most 'successful' writers among us (for a brief period, at least) are, 99 times out of a hundred, persons of mere effrontery--in a word, busy-bodies, toadies, quacks."--Edgar Allan Poe
"In chess what counts is what you know, not whom you know. It's the way life is supposed to be, democratic and just."--Grandmaster Larry Evans
"It's not nuclear physics. You always remember that. But if you write about sports long enough, you're constantly coming back to the point that something buoys people; something makes you feel better for having been there. Something of value is at work there...Something is hallowed here. I think that something is excellence."--Tom Callahan
