Ten Observations Midway Through the NBA's Restart
The NBA season restart is at or past the midway point for each of the 22 participating teams, and the NBA playoffs will begin on August 17. After the restart concludes, I will post my annual playoff preview, but for now here are 10 observations about what we have seen thus far:1) The Lakers look lethargic
LeBron James has scored 16, 20, 22, 19, and 31 points in five games during the restart. He had a field goal percentage of .467 or worse in three of those five games (he is shooting .495 from the field overall this season, his lowest field goal percentage since 2014-15). He also has missed one game. Anthony Davis scored 34 points in the first game of the restart, but he followed that up with 14 points on 2-7 field goal shooting. Since then his scoring totals have been 42, 9, 17, and 8. In three of those games--all losses--he did not attempt more than 11 field goals.
The Lakers have already clinched the number one seed in the Western Conference--though the value of that status is less than ever because there is no home court advance with all of the games being played at the same venue--and it may be that they are just coasting until the playoffs begin, but it is risky to develop bad habits in terms of preparation, focus, and execution. To cite an example from a different sport, consider the difference between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts back in the day when both teams were Super Bowl contenders; the Patriots tried to win every single game, while the Colts often rested key players in games that Coach Tony Dungy deemed meaningless. Consequently, the Patriots generally peaked during the postseason, while the Colts often performed below reasonable expectations. The restart NBA is a different sport in a different era, but I believe that the core values of pure competition hold true across sports and eras, so I will always be against resting/load management/tanking and any other situation in which a player and/or a team is not giving maximum effort.
Regarding the Lakers' talent level, it is hilarious to listen to commentators already creating excuses for LeBron James in case the Lakers do not win the title. We are now being told that James' supporting cast is weak. If that is true--and I am not convinced that it is--then player James can blame General Manager James, because General Manager James decided to recruit Anthony Davis and trade away several players to complete the Davis acquisition. During James' career, he has spent roughly half of his seasons with very deep teams that did not have another transcendent star, and the other half of his seasons as part of a Big Three (or, now, a Big Two); when James was blessed with depth, he and his supporters complained about the lack of star power, and when James was blessed with co-stars he and his supporters complained about an alleged lack of depth. Instead of looking for built-in excuses, I prefer the Michael Jordan-Kobe Bryant mindset, as Bryant defined it during the 2018 NBA Finals:
All I thought about as a kid personally was winning championships. That's all I cared about. That's how I valued Michael. That's how I valued [Larry] Bird. That's how I valued Magic [Johnson]. It was just winning championships. Now, everybody's going to value things differently, which is fine. I'm just telling you how I value mine. If I'm Bron, you got to figure out a way to win. It's not about narrative. You want to win championships, you just gotta figure it out. Michael gave me some really good advice after the '08 Finals: "You got all the tools. You gotta figure out how to get these guys to that next level to win that championship." Going into the 2010 series, I said, "Listen, Boston, they got Ray Allen, they got Paul Pierce, they got [Kevin] Garnett, they got Sheed [Wallace], the talent is there. They're stacked." That was the first superteam. [Michael] kind of heard me lament about it, and he just goes, "Yeah, well, it is what it is; you gotta figure it out. There's no other alternative." And that's the challenge LeBron has. You have pieces that you have to try to figure out how to work with. Excuses don't work right now...If James learns to cultivate that mindset, perhaps he will be able to improve his 3-6 record in the NBA Finals.
It has everything to do with how you build the team, from an emotional level. How do you motivate them?...Leadership is not making guys better by just throwing them the ball. That's not what it is. It's about the influence that you have on them to reach their full potential. And some of it's not pretty. Some of it's challenging, some of it's confrontational. Some of it's pat on the back. But it's finding that balance, so now when you show up to play a Golden State or a Boston, your guys feel like you have the confidence to take on more.
2) The Bucks also look lethargic
For most of the 2019-20 season, it looked like the Milwaukee Bucks had a realistic chance to win 70 games. They faltered a bit before the league shut down in March, and the Bucks have not looked right during the restart, posting a 2-3 record so far. Like the Lakers, the Bucks have clinched the top seed in their conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo does not make excuses, and does not strike me as the kind of player who would coast--and he has played well throughout the season, including the restart--but the same thing is true for the Bucks that is true for the Lakers: coasting into the playoffs and then hoping or planning to turn things up is tempting fate. At their best, the Bucks combine an efficient offense with a suffocating defense; if they do not turn things up at both ends of the court, they may be good enough to survive the first two rounds of the playoffs but they could be vulnerable in the Eastern Conference Finals.
3) The Suns are the surprise team
Before the restart began, it would have been reasonable to ask why the Suns were even invited to participate; they were 26-39 and seemed to be going nowhere fast. Now, the Suns are the only restart team with a perfect record (5-0) and they are just one game behind Portland in the race to qualify for the play-in games that will determine which team is the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Phoenix still has to pass the Spurs in addition to the Trail Blazers, but the fact that a team that was dead in the water in March has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs is remarkable. Devin Booker is leading the way as he tries to prove that he is not only a great scorer but also a player who can carry his team to the playoffs. The Suns are also getting timely contributions from other players, including Deandre Ayton and Ricky Rubio.
4) Luka Doncic has emerged as an MVP-caliber player
Luka Doncic is averaging 29.1 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 8.9 apg this season, and he has taken his game to another level during the restart, posting three triple doubles plus a game with 40 points and 11 assists. In one of those triple doubles, he had 34 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists, and in another one he had 36 points, 14 rebounds and 19 assists. I saw Doncic in person at Madison Square Garden last season and I was impressed, but his development from rookie to second year pro is remarkable. He looks like a player who will be an MVP candidate for the foreseeable future. He deserves all of the praise he receives, though I cannot understand why Doncic's triple doubles are universally lauded but Russell Westbrook is not given the respect that he deserves for his unprecedented three straight seasons of averaging a triple double.
5) The Raptors are better than I expected
I thought that the Raptors' excellent record last season during games that Kawhi Leonard missed was a bit deceptive, but perhaps I was wrong; although I picked Toronto to be a playoff team even after Leonard's departure, I did not expect the Raptors to not only be the second seed but to also pose a credible threat to beat Milwaukee in a playoff series. The Raptors are 4-1 during the restart and--unlike the Lakers and the Bucks--they look very ready for the playoffs. We have been hearing for well over a decade how smart and ahead of the curve Houston's Daryl Morey is, but Morey's Rockets have never won anything; in contrast, Masai Ujiri not only fleeced the Knicks in the Carmelo Anthony deal when Ujiri worked for the Denver Nuggets, but in Toronto he discovered Coach Nick Nurse and he built a championship roster that is talented enough and tough enough to remain very competitive even without Leonard.
6) Lillard versus Beverley and George
After Portland's Damian Lillard choked at the end of a loss that may cost his team a playoff berth, the Clippers' Paul George and Patrick Beverley--each of whom have been eliminated from the playoffs after Lillard hit a game-winning shot---trash-talked Lillard in person and via social media. Lillard, never bashful, returned fire.
It is hilarious to see Damian Lillard trading barbs with Paul George and Patrick Beverley, because this provides an opportunity to listen to three guys who have never won an NBA title debating who knows more about winning, with the correct answer being: None of the above!
I respect Lillard's toughness and shotmaking ability, but a player with his size and skill set is unlikely to ever lead a team to a title. As for the Clippers, the only people in that locker room who should open their mouths on this subject are the people who have too much sense to waste energy doing so: Championship-winning Coach Doc Rivers, championship-winning Coach (and now an assistant coach) Tyronn Lue, and Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard.
7) The level of play has been higher than I expected
I feared that the restart would feature some of the abysmal basketball that we saw in the wake of some of the NBA's labor stoppages that resulted in delayed, lockout-shortened seasons. I am pleasantly surprised at the overall level of play that we have seen; I have avoided watching the Wizards and the Kings and I am sure that their level of play has not been great, but most of the rest of the teams look sharper than I would have expected.
8) Russell Westbrook is the key for the high-variance Houston Rockets
Russell Westbrook started the season slowly by his lofty standards as he recovered from off-season knee surgery and as he adjusted to playing for a new team that has a quirky playing style, but he has still had an impressive--and overlooked--season, averaging 27.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 7.1 apg. Westbrook averaged a triple double in each of the past three seasons--a feat that had never been accomplished before, and that is unlikely to be matched--but even though he will not average a triple double this season one could argue that this is the best all-around season of his career: he is posting his best field goal percentage (.472), his second highest mpg average, his third highest scoring average, and his fourth highest rebounding average. Westbrook is having an MVP-caliber season, but for some reason his contributions are minimized, if not completely ignored.
Westbrook's speed, ability to get into the paint at will, and his sublime passing are crucial elements for Houston. The Rockets have pushed their proverbial chips to the middle of the table and gone all-in terms of playing small ball: they know that they will likely be outrebounded by a significant margin in every game, and that they likely will be outscored in the paint by a significant margin in every game. They are wagering that they will force enough turnovers and make enough three pointers to more than compensate for their roster's inherent structural weaknesses. The Rockets' reliance on three point shooting is a high-variance approach: they could get hot from long range and beat anyone once, but a high-variance approach is unlikely to work four times in a seven game series against a good team. The best chance for this high-variance approach to succeed is to place the ball in Westbrook's capable hands as much as possible. If the Rockets win the title (which I do not expect to happen, but which is not impossible for a high-variance team playing in an environment with no home court advantage), James Harden will without doubt receive most of the credit, but Westbrook will have provided the driving force--literally.
9) T.J. Warren is the breakout star of the restart
T.J. Warren had proven that he was a reliable high double figure scorer prior to the restart, but his scoring numbers during the restart are ridiculous: 53, 34, 32, 16, 39. That adds up to 34.8 ppg. These scoring outbursts have lifted his scoring average to a career-high 19.9 ppg, and have helped Warren's Indiana Pacers to post a 4-1 record so far during the restart. The six year veteran was infamously traded from Phoenix to Indiana for cash considerations, and he seems focused on making all of his opponents pay for what he considers to be disrespect.
10) Injuries are taking a toll
One of the concerns about bringing the players back to game action relatively quickly after several months of no games and no practices is a heightened risk of injury. Injuries are part of any sport, and there is no way to prove that the players who have gotten injured during the restart would not have gotten injured otherwise, but Ben Simmons is out indefinitely and many other players have suffered injuries that have caused them to miss at least one game. The wear and tear of the NBA game is cumulative, and the impact of even a slight dip in fitness/conditioning/stamina will continue to make its presence felt. After the restart has concluded, it would be interesting to see some analytics regarding the relative frequency and severity of injuries during this time frame compared to what happened previously under normal conditions.
Labels: Damian Lillard, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Milwaukee Bucks, Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Russell Westbrook, T.J. Warren
posted by David Friedman @ 4:09 AM
