20 Second Timeout

Julius Erving Offers Thoughtful, Moving Reflections in his Autobiography

Dr. J--Julius Erving's autobiography, written with the assistance of Karl Taro Greenfeld--is a candid, unflinching look at the life of an American sports icon. Erving's rise, literally and figuratively, is described in a captivating, evocative manner; the reader learns how Erving emerged from a single-parent home to become not just one of the greatest basketball players of all-time but also a dignified, highly respected man who has positively influenced many lives. Erving flew to the hoop with grace and power but he never put on airs.

Erving's parents divorced when he was three years old and he only saw his father--Julius Winfield Erving Sr.--a few times before the elder Erving died from injuries that he suffered in a traffic accident. Young Erving was raised by his mother Callie Mae Abney alongside older sister Alexis Alfreda (known as Freda) and younger brother Marvin (who was nicknamed Marky). The family lived in public housing in a racially mixed neighborhood in Hempstead, Long Island. Erving did not face much overt racism in Long Island but he experienced culture shock as a youngster when he, his mother and his siblings visited their relatives in the Deep South. A sign declaring "WELCOME TO KLAN COUNTRY" greeted them when they drove into North Carolina and Erving's cousin Bobby told him, "White people are devils"--but Erving's mother told her son, "All people are the same. Black. White. We're all the same. There's good and bad people among white and black. You remember that."

Erving's character formed early, shaped by his mother's wisdom and his own internal moral compass; Erving would always be a leader but not a radical, a free thinker but not a revolutionary, a man who followed the rules but was never afraid to improvise when necessary (p. 28):

Mom says if I do my homework first, then I can play. I have to keep quiet in class. I must go to school. I should respect my elders.

I stand by the rules, move with care and respect and wariness, and agree to abide by the penalties of failure and rewards of success. Despite what I have seen in the Jim Crow South, the injustice that makes Bobby hate, and even the violence of our own Parkside Gardens, when even as a child I can get a sense that some lives just aren't as highly valued as others, I seek shelter in the security of rules, the snugness of being tucked into a line, of being a number in a column rather than a soul out of place, alone.

Early in his life, Erving dealt with death, loss and suffering. His father was not much of a presence in his life before passing away, cousin Bobby drowned as a young child and Erving suffered a serious knee injury playing street football; for a while it seemed questionable if he would ever walk without a limp, let alone resume being the fastest running/highest jumping kid in his peer group. Erving wore a cast on his leg for three months, during which time he watched basketball both in the neighborhood park and on TV, where he caught his first glimpses of Elgin Baylor--and began to form a vision of how the game could be played artistically (p. 35): "For the first time, I have this idea that certain ways of playing basketball are more beautiful than other ways. That there is scoring, putting the ball in the basket, but also the artistry of how that scoring is done. This is a new idea, an idea I have never heard spoken aloud: that some basketball players look better than other basketball players because of the way they play."

Erving resumed playing various sports after his leg healed and his streetball exploits attracted the attention of Don Ryan, a 19 year old Salvation Army basketball coach. Ryan invited Erving and Erving's friend Archie Rogers to become the first black players on the local Salvation Army team. Erving won the MVP award in his first season of organized basketball and his squad dominated the local teams. Ryan taught the kids more than just how to play basketball; Erving remembered that Ryan insisted that his players "win without bragging and lose without crying."

After Erving's mother married Dan Lindsay, the family moved to Roosevelt, Long Island and Erving came under the guidance of high school coaches Earl Mosley and Ray Wilson, two men who picked up where Ryan had left off both in terms of coaching basketball on the court and also setting an example for how to act off of the court.

Erving came of age during the 1960s, an era scarred by war, assassinations and civil unrest, but his faith in the American ideal never wavered. He believed in the United States, despite her shortcomings: "It is a force for good. It is the greatest nation. And if I work to the best of my abilities, then I will be rewarded" (p. 123).

The dreadful day that Martin Luther King Jr. was killed, a group of black kids--eager to exact revenge against any white person they can find--gathered menacingly around Stephanie, one of Erving's white classmates. Erving went into the middle of the crowd, insisted that they stop harassing Stephanie and then he walked her home: "This is our hope, as a nation, I think, that two kids--the little black boys and little white girls of Dr. King's speech--can just walk together, and share their dreams, and in sharing somehow give strength and validity to each other's dreams. Teachers, our parents, Ray Wilson, Earl Mosley, Don Ryan, they keep telling us we are American's future. Adults repeat the sentiment so much it becomes a platitude, as meaningless as a car advertising jingle, but now, at this moment, as Stephanie thanks me for walking her home, it becomes real" (p. 128).

No one is flawless and the one aspect of Erving's life that has surprised and disappointed some of his fans is his infidelity to Turquoise Brown, his first wife and the woman with whom he had three children (at the time that she married Erving, Turquoise also had a son from a previous relationship). In Dr. J, Erving frankly describes his attitude toward women and sex; his first sexual experience came at the hands of an older step-cousin who, essentially, molested/assaulted him when he was 13 years old. By the time he reached college and had attained a certain status as a big man on campus, Erving's attitude about sex had been set: "Perhaps it is a product of the impersonal manner in which I was introduced to sex, but I divide women into two categories. There are those who I  consider relationship material, who I view as good girls, and then there are those who I see more as objects, as bad girls. I know that's simplistic and even offensive to many women, and that among the so-called good girls there are plenty of bad people and vice versa, but I am mired in that kind of patriarchal thinking on the subject and it will take years for me to break out of it. My struggle to respect women and to see them all as God's creatures is one of the ways I've had to rise above my own circumstances and perhaps the cultural norms of when and where I was raised" (pp. 158-159).

While Erving wrestled with temptation off of the court, he literally rose above the crowd on the court. He earned a slot as an alternate for the 1970 U.S. Olympic Development camp; the camp consisted of a pool of 40 players from which the 1972 U.S. Olympic Basketball team would be selected. After a player got injured, Erving came to the camp one week into the proceedings, made the squad and earned team MVP honors during a European exhibition tour. He also excelled at the University of Massachusetts; Erving is one of just five players who averaged at least 20 ppg and at least 20 rpg during an NCAA career.

Most fans probably think of Erving as a dunker and/or a flashy scorer but Erving's game was always well-grounded in the sport's fundamentals. Early in his career, he made his name primarily as a rebounder, though he also was an excellent scorer, passer and defender. Erving's big hands, outstanding leaping ability and impeccable timing enabled him to outduel bigger and stronger players on the boards. Erving attracted the attention of the ABA's Virginia Squires, who signed him to a five year contract after his junior season.

Erving made a quick adjustment to the professional game on the court, averaging 27.3 ppg, 15.7 rpg and 4.0 apg as a rookie in the 1971-72 season. He elevated those numbers to 33.3 ppg, 20.4 rpg and 6.5 apg in the playoffs, a tremendous beginning to a very underrated postseason career. Off of the court, Erving experienced some of the challenges typically encountered by young men who achieve fame and fortune very quickly; Erving and a fellow University of Massachusetts student named Carol developed a serious relationship before Erving turned pro but after Erving joined the ABA he enjoyed the company of many different sexual partners. In his book, Erving does not attempt to justify his behavior (he misled Carol to believe that they were still in a committed, monogamous relationship) but he explains his mindset/shortcomings: "But I'm still a young man, just twenty-two now, and while the idea of fidelity to one woman seems the righteous and moral thing to do, I know enough about my own failings to recognize it's not realistic" (p. 219). After his rookie season, Erving traveled back to Amherst (Carol was still enrolled in college) and--without admitting that he had already cheated on her--suggested to Carol that they have an "open relationship," telling her that only after they have had other partners could they truly know if they were meant to be together. She is understandably skeptical of such an arrangement and Erving recalls thinking at that time, "I may have negotiated away the best thing I ever had" (p. 221).

During the summer of 1972, Erving jumped to the NBA's Atlanta Hawks, teaming up with the incomparable Pete Maravich. Erving only spent part of the preseason with the Hawks before a court order forced him to rejoin the Squires but Maravich left an indelible impression on Erving: "One of the things that makes Pete so great is his hang time, and no one talks about that. He can leave the floor and sort of stay up there long enough to fake one way and then pass another...Pete Maravich is the most skilled basketball player I have ever seen" (pp. 226-227).

Erving had already sold his Virginia residence, so when he returned to the Squires he stayed at the home of team owner Earl Foreman;  Foreman spent most of his time at his Washington, D.C. home. Erving entertained various young ladies at Foreman's place but then he met Turquoise Brown. Erving knew that he had, as he put it in the book, "problems with fidelity" but he quickly felt a powerful attraction to Brown, who he married early in 1974. By that time, Erving had been traded to the New York Nets. He celebrated his homecoming by winning the first of his four regular season MVPs en route to leading the Nets to the 1974 ABA title.

Erving's Nets fell short in the 1975 playoffs but bounced back to claim the 1976 championship in the final season before the ABA/NBA merger. In the 1976 ABA Finals versus the powerful Denver Nuggets, Erving operated at the highest possible level, leading both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) as the Nets prevailed four games to two. Erving could have justifiably devoted a whole chapter to that series alone and a strong argument can be made that this was the greatest single-series performance in pro basketball history but Dr. J describes the series in just two pages.

The financially strapped Nets sold Erving to the Philadelphia 76ers. Erving led the 76ers to the NBA Finals four times in 11 seasons but it took the acquisition of Moses Malone in 1982 to push the team over the hump; the 76ers had long needed an elite big man to match up with Hall of Fame centers like Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Robert Parish. Walton's Portland Trailblazers defeated the 76ers in the 1977 NBA Finals, while Abdul-Jabbar teamed with Magic Johnson to knock off the 76ers in the 1980 and 1982 NBA Finals.

Erving is justifiably proud of his 1981 NBA regular season MVP,  noting that he was the first non-center to win the NBA MVP since Oscar Robertson (1964): "I am contributing to this transformation of the game, in that the most exciting players are now playing facing the basket instead of with their backs to it. I feel like this is some vindication of my style, of the game played on the rise and above the rim" (p. 338). Throughout the book, Erving points out that each era has its own context, making it difficult to fairly compare players from different eras; for instance, during Erving's career star players tended to not question the coaches and many coaches favored using a balanced attack--but more recent superstars such as Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James have the power to get coaches fired and do not hesitate to demand (in word or simply by the way that they play) to fire up more than 20 field goal attempts per game (a level that Erving regularly reached in the ABA but that he only topped once in his NBA career while adhering to the guidelines of coaches Gene Shue, Billy Cunningham and Matt Guokas).

Erving filled the last blank space on his basketball resume when the 76ers claimed the 1983 NBA championship. Erving does not discuss that magical title run in great detail, concluding, "No matter how old I get, no matter what I accomplish, I still see a lanky fifteen-year-old staring back at me. I'm still Mom's son and Marky's brother. I'm still Junior" (p. 379).

Erving later adds, "Basketball doesn't recede in importance. Perhaps it was simply never as meaningful as it seems. It is why you know me, know my name, but it is not me. It is my profession, what I do--it's a strange profession in that those who become very good at it also become famous. Great dentists and accountants are unremarked upon when they enter a restaurant. Great basketball players are never unnoticed" (p. 389).

During various media appearances to promote Dr. J, Erving has stressed that his autobiography is not primarily a basketball book and this is true; Erving focuses much more on his upbringing, his internal thought processes about non-basketball situations and his off court life than he does on his basketball career, though he clearly--and quite correctly--expresses the opinion that his basketball accomplishments have not been given their full due.

However, Erving makes a point of mentioning that he does not appreciate Larry Bird saying that Michael Jordan was the best player he ever faced: "...I find that a little disrespectful. We beat them up pretty bad in some playoffs, and they got the better of us in others, but those are the toughest matchups for both of us. I don't think it's fair for Larry to say that Michael is the best based on one great playoff game, the 63-point performance in Boston Garden. But then, Larry is always playing mind games, so he's probably trying to psych out Magic and me" (p. 325). Erving and Bird shared a tremendous rivalry, a rivalry that has sadly been forgotten by far too many commentators and fans. Erving is right to insist that this rivalry should be remembered and respected. Later in the book, he declares that Philadelphia's game seven win against Boston in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals "may have been the most important game in my career. Back then, those Sixer-Celtic series felt bigger than championship finals, or certainly more emotional. Those games are tougher and more mentally draining than any others I've ever played" (p. 356). As for his infamous fight with Bird in November 1984, Erving is not proud of what happened and he notes that neither he nor Bird will autograph photos of them fighting. Erving also says that he considered it "office politics, the squabbles of men at work" and that it never affected their personal or business relationships.

The 1982-83 76ers set a record (since broken by the 2000-01 Lakers) by going 12-1 in the playoffs but their core players were too old to establish a dynasty; the 76ers failed to defend their title, losing in the first round of the 1984 playoffs. Erving attributes the 76ers' decline to the accumulated wear and tear of the previous several extended postseason runs, noting that Bird's Celtics were swept in the 1983 playoffs and that Erving's 76ers swept Johnson's Lakers in the 1983 playoffs: "Long playoff runs tire out a team, as we are forced to return again and again to our emotional and spiritual wells" (p. 390). During the 76ers' 1984 first round loss to the Nets, Erving realized that his days at the top of the sport were numbered: "My knees are sore and my groin injury has recurred throughout that series, so I'm hobbled, feeling my age and playing through pain, averaging over 18 a game but never exerting my will the way I have in playoffs past" (p. 390).

Ultimately, though, Erving is much more focused on larger issues than he is on his basketball career or anyone else's basketball career. The death of his sister Freda before the age of 40 as a result of colon cancer reminds Erving again of the fragility of life and the mysteries of existence: "I don't understand God's will. I don't understand His plan. The universe sometimes seems arbitrary to me, its cruelty as unthinking as a mousetrap. When Marky passed, I forced myself to keep moving forward, as I did with Bobby, Tonk, and Wendell, but when I go with Mom and Freda to Marky's grave in Rockville Centre, I think again about the substance of this life, about the extinguishing of the body and the mysteries of the soul. I always believe that Marky travels with me, and I sometimes feel him there, but I also know that this is the story I tell myself in order to soften the harsh truth of his being gone" (p. 363; Tonk was his father's nickname, while Wendell refers to Wendell Ladner, a New York teammate who died in a plane crash).

Erving feels like he entered pro basketball through the "side door," so it was very important to him to leave the sport through the "front door," to retire at a time of his choosing when he still could perform at a high level. His 1986-87 Farewell Tour featured an amazing outpouring of love and respect from across the country and around the world. 

Erving briefly worked as an analyst for NBC's NBA coverage but he was never comfortable on camera: "It takes a certain knack, a quickness of mind, and an ability to say nothing while sounding like I am saying something. I have to learn to speak while a producer is talking into my ear, giving me some statistics that I can use in support of a vacuous thesis about the first half of a basketball game that will be forgotten tomorrow...I find the analyses numbing. It is remarkable to me how we can fill hours, days even, of television talking about basketball, and yet I always feel that we are failing to communicate the truth of the game. Even here, in this book, I worry that I am not up to the task of explaining the essence of basketball as it is played at the highest levels. I feel that it is like trying to explain music through words or to describe a painting through text. You can give a feeling of the work, or compare it to something else, but you can't re-create the actual feeling of being on the court, or making that move, imposing your will, of the precise moment that you realize you can reach the front of the rim" (pp. 402-403). 

Erving's life since retiring from the NBA has not been easy; he has weathered the death of his son Cory, the death of his mother and a divorce from Turquoise. An associate ripped off Erving for several million dollars in a golf course deal and--though Erving denied it at the time--Erving's financial troubles contributed to his decision to sell off over 100 pieces from his personal memorabilia collection, including championship rings and MVP trophies.

It is a natural human tendency to downplay and/or excuse one's own flaws and shortcomings but Erving is very candid and blunt about his personal failures. Many people were shocked about the 1999 revelation that Erving was the father of young tennis star Alexandra Stevenson, who had been raised by her mother Samantha, a sportswriter who had an affair with Erving: "Samantha obviously did a fantastic job as a single mom raising her daughter, and I have nothing but praise and admiration for both of them. As I said, there are facets of my life that are less than heroic. This is an area where I wish I could have done it differently...There is no villain here, though I would say--and this is my book--that there is one person who is more at fault in this affair than the rest, and I raise my hand" (p. 408). Erving later had a second child out of wedlock with a different woman, to whom he is now married and with whom he is raising a family: "Whatever shame I feel at having sired children out of wedlock is balanced by the fierce pride I take in them, all of them...As I say, mine is an American life, fully lived, and I am not above reproach for my shortcomings. I hear my mother's stern voice and still feel her disappointment" (p. 418).

Dr. J tells Erving's story articulately and passionately; the book provides great insight into Erving's life.

Postscript:

Erving spoke with Keith Olbermann about his life and his philosophy:



The entire interview is tremendous but Erving's comments about basketball and aesthetics struck a particular chord with me and they echo my feelings about the sport. I quoted the passage (from page 35) in which Erving described his first thoughts/visions about playing basketball beautifully and artistically; Erving told Olbermann that George Gervin possessed that artistic quality and that Kevin Durant is the active player who most embodies this trait.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Don Ryan, George Gervin, Julius Erving, Kevin Durant, L.A. Lakers, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, New York Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, Virginia Squires

posted by David Friedman @ 11:39 PM

0 comments

Examining the Collapse of the "Leastern" Conference

The Eastern Conference has a proud tradition of producing great teams led by great players; in the 1980s and 1990s alone, Julius Erving/Moses Malone (Philadelphia), Larry Bird/Kevin McHale/Robert Parish (Boston), Isiah Thomas/Joe Dumars (Detroit) and Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen (Chicago) played the game at the highest possible level--but now the Eastern Conference resembles the remains of some long lost civilization that has been devastated by a massive disaster: the eighth place team (Chicago) is barely on pace to win 32 games.

David Aldridge recently offered his take on the Eastern Conference's implosion (Why is the East so bad now? Ten factors stand out the most). Here are his top 10 reasons for the East's collapse, along with my comments/observations (Aldridge's analysis is summarized in italics):

1)"Howard's End": Aldridge notes that if Dwight Howard had stayed in Orlando then the Magic would be a perennial championship contender instead of being headed for yet another appearance in the Draft Lottery. Championship teams are almost always led by at least one superstar (a term which should not be used generically but instead should refer to someone who consistently plays at an All-NBA First Team level) and Howard is one of several superstars who have shifted the balance of power due to trades, injuries or free agency.

2) "The Devil in Mr. Rose": Speaking of departing superstars, Derrick Rose missed all of last season due to a knee injury and he figures to miss all of this season due to another knee injury. Aldridge points out that with Rose the Chicago Bulls could have contended for the title but without him they may elect to rebuild and assemble a different nucleus. A fully healthy Chicago team could have posed a major challenge to the Miami Heat's current championship run; the Bulls are tough, defensive-minded, physical and they are not afraid of the Heat--even when Rose is out of the lineup. However, without Rose the Bulls simply do not have enough star power and scoring punch to take out the Heat in a seven game series.

3) "A Series of Unfortunate Events": Aldridge mentions that for several years the Detroit Pistons were the "gold standard" but that the team "had to be rebuilt" and that the Pistons "came up snake eyes after rolling sevens year after year." While Aldridge correctly traces the Pistons' decline back to the firing of Coach Larry Brown, he neglects to mention Joe Dumars' Peculiar Fascination with Rodney Stuckey. I will never understand why Dumars put so much faith in a journeyman player and why he discarded two perennial All-Stars (first Chauncey Billups, then Allen Iverson) in order to install Stuckey as one of Detroit's starting guards.

4) "The Man With Two Brains": Aldridge traces the Wizards' recent somnolence to the fall of Gilbert Arenas. With all due respect to Aldridge and Arenas, Arenas was never an elite player and the Wizards were never a great team even when Arenas was at the peak of his powers; in fact, the Wizards did better without Arenas in the 2007-08 season than they did with him in the 2006-07 season (they posted a .536 winning percentage sans Arenas in 2007-08, compared to a .534 winning percentage in the 2006-07 season prior to Arenas and Caron Butler suffering season-ending injuries). The Wizards never won more than 45 regular season games during Arenas' tenure with the team, nor did they ever advance past the second round of the playoffs, so it does not make sense to suggest that Arenas' decline has much to do with the decline of the Eastern Conference as a whole.

5) "A River(s) Runs Through It": The departure of Coach Doc Rivers plus the entire Big Three spelled doom for the Boston Celtics. This is obvious and true, though the Celtics would not have been a legitimate championship contender this season even if Rivers, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen were still Celtics. Pierce and Garnett are running on fumes, while Allen has settled comfortably into being a heady, reliable role player.

6)  "Swimming With Sharks": If Chris Paul had not ended up with the Clippers then Rivers might have chosen to coach the Nets instead of heading out to L.A. This is pure speculation by Aldridge; he might be right, he might be wrong but either way this could have been included in his analysis of reason five.

7) "Speaking of the Devil...": Nobody expected the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets to be this bad. That is a reasonable assertion; I predicted that the Nets would finish fourth in the East and that the Knicks would finish fifth in the East (they are currently 10th and 14th respectively) but I also wrote of the Nets "it is questionable how good this aging team will be defensively" (the Nets currently rank 22nd out of 30 teams in points allowed and 17th in defensive field goal percentage). I have consistently criticized New York's rebuilding plan and while I did not expect them to be this bad I also never viewed the Knicks as a team that would get past the second round of the playoffs.

8) "South Beach": The Decision set back the Cleveland Cavaliers for several years and they still have not fully recovered. True and true. However, I disagree with Aldridge's assertion, "...they couldn't put a team around him (James) that was good enough to win it all." James led the Cavs to the 2007 NBA Finals and he also led them to the best regular season record in the league two years in a row (2009, 2010). James' refusal to commit to Cleveland and/or recruit players to come to Cleveland made it difficult for team management to surround him with the best talent but James had enough help around him to win a title if only he had not quit against Boston during the 2010 playoffs. If James had stayed in Cleveland, if he had recruited players to join him there the way that he recruited players after signing with Miami and if he matured as a person/player the way that he did in Miami then he very likely would have led the Cavs to at least one championship.

9) "The Other Guys": Orlando and Cleveland lost their superstars and the Knicks, Nets and Pistons engaged in rebuilding plans that have yet to build much of significance--but Western teams like Oklahoma City, Golden State, Memphis and Houston methodically improved their rosters. Aldridge is right for the most part, though Memphis has made a series of moves (including trading Rudy Gay and getting rid of Coach Lionel Hollins) that significantly set the franchise back and Houston floundered a la the Knicks for several years before becoming a marginal playoff team last year. It remains to be seen if Houston's highly touted free agent signings of Dwight Howard and James Harden will result in much postseason success.

10) "Tank": Some teams may be more interested in jockeying for draft position than in winning right now. This is sad but true. It would be interesting to research the fates of franchises that genuinely tanked and/or could reasonably be accused of genuinely tanking. Has tanking ever led to a championship? The great Boston, Philadelphia and L.A. teams never tanked, nor did the more recent three-peat dynasties in Chicago and L.A. If there are any teams that are tanking now I hope that they keep losing for many years to come.

Labels: Boston Celtics, David Aldridge, Derrick Rose, Detroit Pistons, Doc Rivers, Dwight Howard, Eastern Conference, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, NBA, Rodney Stuckey

posted by David Friedman @ 4:17 PM

6 comments

Warren Jabali Biography Provides Insight About a Unique Athlete/Philosopher

Warren Jabali is one of the most interesting people I have ever interviewed. I had the privilege of both meeting him at the 2005 ABA Reunion and also speaking with him at length on the phone. Those conversations formed the basis for two articles: Warren Jabali in his own Words and Remembering Warren Jabali. I was honored and pleased when Mary Alice Beasley, Warren Jabali's widow, asked for my permission to reprint both of those pieces in Thanks to You: Memories of Warren Edward Armstrong Jabali, her 415 page tribute to not just Warren Jabali the basketball player but--much more importantly--Warren Jabali the human being.

Here is a quote from the book's preface, written by David Thomas: "The men who gathered at Warren’s funeral felt one thing in common: Warren’s story should be known. It is the story of the fearless young man with extraordinary gifts who discovers that life is unfair, that the world is out of balance, that there are monsters--both inner and outer--that must be slain. It is the story of coming to terms with life as it is, facing facts squarely, and then turning your gifts, whatever they are, to the benefit of those you care about most. It is a love story, perhaps above all, a love story."

Thomas recalls a conversation in which Jabali expressed his support for Booker T. Washington's philosophy--"Put down your bucket where you are"--as opposed to W.E.B. DuBois' approach of "We have to get equal rights and participate in the system." Jabali elaborated, "(Since black people) don't have the power and influence that equals our abilities, then you would say that the Booker T. model is the model that we should have been following." One could call it the art of the possible; instead of waiting or hoping for the ideal world situation to develop, create the best opportunities for yourself and your people by using whatever resources are available to you right now.

In the Introduction, Beasley notes, "Although Warren Edward Armstrong Jabali was known for his
basketball skills and accomplishments in high school, college and in the American Basketball Association (ABA) 1968-1976, little is written of his personal life or career as an educator. The purpose of this book is: to inform readers of his many positive attributes; to reveal multiple aspects of his personality; to describe his commitment to a cause he deemed worthy; to familiarize readers with his passion for music; to make known his talents as a writer and speaker; to demonstrate his intellectual depth and keen perception; to convey his love and to express his devotion for his children; to unveil his spiritual growth; and to chronicle his social evolution."

Warren Jabali completed 22 typewritten, single-spaced pages of his autobiography before he passed away on July 13, 2012. Thanks to You includes those pages but the bulk of the book consists of the memories and observations of those who knew Jabali best, supplemented by various speeches and articles composed by Jabali. Beasley declares, "His writing style, as was his speech, is direct and very powerful," an opinion with which any reader of this book will readily concur.

Jabali studied a wide variety of religions and philosophical doctrines. Beasley writes (italics are used in the original text), "It was his goal to reach a state of 'Holy Indifference" (having a balanced understanding of life while being unaffected by events and circumstances) as described in the Bhagavad Gita, the Hindu scriptures. In other words, as Jabali would often say: 'It is what it is.'" It is important, but not easy, to accept the concept that Only Thoughts and Actions Can be Controlled, Not Outcomes.

In the autobiographical section of the book, Jabali humbly declares, "I do not consider myself to have been a great player and therefore did not generate enough notoriety as to deserve to be written about in a book. Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain are the type of players who deserve basketball books. From my era, players such as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who was dominant in high school, college and professionally, Julius Erving, who was the star of the American Basketball Association, and George Gervin, who was a master of scoring and of the 'finger roll,' would be deserving of literary attention. These men were transcendent and actually have legendary accomplishments. If one is not of that ilk, his basketball story must then be ordinary. I will make mention of my basketball experiences here and there but I will write primarily about the opportunity and perspective gained from the exposure gained by working as an above average athlete."

Keep in mind that Jabali made the ABA's All-Time Team, earned four All-Star selections, won the 1973 ABA All-Star MVP award and is the only player in ABA/NBA history other than Magic Johnson to win the Rookie of the Year and the Finals MVP in the same season; he was hardly an "ordinary" player but he possessed the extraordinary awareness that he could and should make a larger contribution to society than just putting the ball in the basket with great aplomb.

After describing his family's background, history and struggles, Jabali comments on how he feels like the black community has fallen short compared to other minority groups:

We have failed to take lessons from other immigrant groups. Nor do we seem to take the biblical examples to heart. How was it that the Jews could be enslaved by the Egyptians for four hundred years and maintained their religion, their language and their national identity? When the Jews were emancipated and were free to leave the plantation, they sought to go straight back to Israel. African Americans, when freed, sought only to go to northern cities.

When Marcus Garvey talked of going back to Africa, the response was in reality tepid. I submit that the African American 'Moses,' Booker T. Washington, was cast in the wrong light and dismissed to the shame and detriment to us as a people. Booker T. Washington admonished black people to be productive. The Jews, if nothing else, have been productive...Did our ministers try to teach us why the Jews were successful wherever they went?

Later in the book, Beasley (who Jabali nicknamed "Bibi") comments about Jabali's fascination with Jewish history:

The history of the Jews intrigued him most. He would often state, "Bibi, the Jews are so successful because they are one universally. Their religion binds them no matter where they are. Neither regionalism, nationalism, political affiliation nor anything else trumps their religion. We should follow their example. Religion divides us, education divides us, skin color divides us, etc...we need to unite."

Beasley notes that Jabali's favorite poems included "Desiderata," "Invictus," "Myself," "The Raven" and "Annabel Lee." The concluding stanza of "Invictus" challenges the reader to not succumb to fate but rather to rise above any challenge/obstacle:

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.

The concluding lines of "Desiderata" are also uplifting:

With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world.
Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.

Those two poems convey much of the essence of Jabali's world view; he was a strong man who controlled his own fate but he also learned to appreciate the beauty in our flawed world and he strove to be happy while never abandoning his goal to improve his life and the lives of his people.

Jabali loved a wide variety of musical genres. On July 15, 1996, he wrote a note to Beasley containing the lyrics from a song called "Thanks to You":

You changed my life and my way of doing things
And all of my life Baby, I will be giving
Thanks to you for being true
And loving me as I love you
You took my heart and you possessed my soul
In you I find warmth when so called friends turn cold.
Forevermore when things get tough
Then we'll have each other. I believe...
I really do believe that that's enough.
You changed my life...You changed my life...

That was the last song that Jabali and Beasley listened to together and that message so profoundly touched Beasley that she used the song title in the title of her book.

David Thomas is right on two counts: Jabali's story should be known and, at its core, it is a love story, a story about how love influenced Jabali's personal evolution and about how Jabali's love for his people directed his actions so that he could make a significant positive impact in the lives of many individuals who were fortunate to cross paths with him.

----------

Thanks to You: Memories of Warren Edward Armstrong Jabali can be ordered here.

Labels: 2005 ABA Reunion, ABA, David Thomas, Mary Alice Beasley, Oakland Oaks, Warren Jabali

posted by David Friedman @ 4:28 AM

4 comments

Walt "Big Bells" Bellamy Rang Up Some Impressive Numbers

Walt Bellamy, who passed away on November 2 at the age of 74, averaged 20.1 ppg and 13.7 rpg during his 14 year NBA career but the Basketball Hall of Fame did not induct him until nearly two decades after he retired; there is a general sense that, as great as Bellamy was, he could have/should have been even more productive--but is that really a fair assessment?

Bellamy averaged at least 22.8 ppg and at least 14.6 rpg in each of his first five NBA seasons. Only Wilt Chamberlain (10), Bob Pettit (nine) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six) had more such seasons in their entire careers--and Chamberlain is the only player other than Bellamy to begin his career with at least five such seasons in a row (Abdul-Jabbar easily met the scoring requirement and he had a pair of 14.5 rpg seasons in his first five campaigns, so he came pretty close to matching this feat). Just seven players other than Bellamy have had multiple 22.8 ppg/14.6 rpg seasons and only 18 players in NBA/ABA history accomplished this feat even once.

Bellamy ranked second in scoring and third in rebounding during his rookie season (league rankings were determined by totals, not averages, until the 1969-70 season). Bellamy set his career-highs in both categories (31.6 ppg, 19.0 rpg) as a rookie in 1961-62, when he also led the league in field goal percentage (.519). Despite his great productivity, Bellamy never made the All-NBA First or Second Teams, thanks to the prodigious numbers posted during that era by perennial All-NBA Team members Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. 

After those sensational first five seasons, Bellamy's statistics dropped significantly; he played for four different teams, never averaging more than 19.0 ppg or 13.5 rpg. Bellamy's declining scoring and rebounding numbers may seem odd but it is not unusual for a player to put up his best scoring and rebounding numbers early in his career, as I noted in Pro Basketball's 1000 Rebound Club: The Meek Need Not Apply for Membership.

If Bellamy's career had been shortened by injury or early retirement, those initial seasons would have been enough to earn him a Gale Sayers-type of reputation--but Bellamy kept playing, though not at nearly the same level, and that is what makes it challenging to determine his rightful place in basketball history. Bellamy averaged a double double in six of his final nine seasons and he contributed a solid 13.1 ppg and 9.6 rpg for the 1973-74 Atlanta Hawks as a 34 year old in his second to last season. Bellamy was a very efficient scorer; he shot .516 from the field during his career, an excellent percentage in any era and particularly notable considering how rare it was for a player to shoot better than .500 from the field during the 1960s. He ranked in the top ten in field goal percentage 10 times and he also drew a lot of fouls, finishing in the top ten in free throw attempts eight times.

The gulf between Bellamy's production in the early and late phases of his career is more extreme than is usually seen among Hall of Famers whose careers have not been significantly impacted by injuries but his exceptional first five years combined with more than a decade of at least solid productivity overall are enough to make him a worthy Hall of Famer. He does not belong in the same class with Chamberlain, Russell and Abdul-Jabbar and he does not quite measure up with Moses Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O'Neal but Bellamy--who finished his career with 20,941 points and 14,241 rebounds--does not have to take a back seat to many other centers in pro basketball history.

Labels: Bill Russell, Bob Pettit, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Walt Bellamy, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 10:53 AM

2 comments

Charley Rosen Explains Why Statistics Can be Very Misleading

The title of Charley Rosen's article about the limitations of basketball statistics says it all: The Numbers Game is Fraudulent. The two part series deserves to be read in its entirety but here are some choice excerpts to whet your appetite (the passages are not numbered in the original piece):

1) Yet even as Sabermetrics has become the latest craze in the NBA (as per the recent hiring of the stat-crunching John Hollinger by Memphis) there are many fallacies in this way of evaluating basketball players. The primary one being that most statistics tally what happens when a player either has the ball in his possession or is in close proximity to the ball. Since there are 10 players on the court, 80-90 percent of the game is ignored. 

Consider assists: Used to be that a pass-catch-shoot-and-make was the only sequence that led to an assist. Nowadays, an assist can be awarded when the pass-recipient takes one dribble and two steps before his make.

2) Points scored is another misleading number. Points racked up by players on bad teams are relatively meaningless. It’s when a player scores that really counts, plus the circumstances. Amassing stats on how many fourth quarter points somebody scores, or how many times he scores in the last two minutes of a close game, etc. are also limited evaluations. Did a player score because a defender missed an assigned rotation? Or the player grabbed a teammate’s airball and wound up with an uncontested layup? Or was it a breakaway dunker created by a teammate’s steal, offensive rebound, and or perfect outlet pass?

3) Let’s examine minutes and games played. In NBA.com, minutes are given in whole numbers. This means a guy who plays one second and one who plays eighty-nine seconds are both credited with one game and one minute played. This eighty-eight second difference could conceivably include at least four possessions, and could therefore be the difference between a totally insignificant appearance and a critical one. 

4) Now we come to my favorite group of people...According to Ed Rush, the one-time supervisor of NBA officials, the calls made by the league’s refs are correct 92 percent of the time. But that means that eight percent of fouls and infractions called are erroneous – even with late-game access to tape replays. Plus, Rush offered no approximation of how many times the refs err by not tooting their whistles... 

If the refs have a distorted view of the game, then statistics such as free-throws attempted, fouls, turnovers, and even wins and losses are anything but objective. 

So what are we left with?

Free-throw shooting. Three-point accuracy. 

To truly judge the effectiveness of any given player, disregard the numbers and disregard the ball. Instead watch what he does when he doesn’t have possession or isn’t even in the neighborhood of the ball. Does he set weakside picks? Make cuts that open up space for a teammate? Make the pass that leads to an assist pass? Box out? Make appropriate defensive rotations? Get back on defense? And so on. 

After all, in no circumstances can numbers ever measure the human spirit. 

Rosen's point about assists is particularly relevant and also easy to verify; Chris Paul is indisputably a great passer but I have repeatedly documented that his assist totals are inflated. I don't know if the NBA has unofficially broadened the definition of an assist to the extent that the statistic is rendered almost meaningless or if certain scorekeepers favor home players and/or star players but it should be obvious that if the raw box score statistics are not trustworthy then the so-called "advanced basketball statistics" must be taken with a heavy grain of salt.

Many "stat gurus" are all too willing to ignore the problematic nature of box score statistics while at the same time insisting that their proprietary "advanced" numbers are infallible but Dean Oliver is one researcher who consistently communicates in a very measured tone about the limitations of "advanced basketball statistics." Oliver's recent ESPN.com article is a welcome departure from the haughty tone and wildly outrageous claims that far too often characterize the writing produced by proponents of "advanced basketball statistics." Oliver has high hopes for the future of "advanced basketball statistics" but he also candidly admits, "The problem with player value metrics is that there is little to validate them, meaning that no metric has established itself as clearly the best. Metrics couldn't even be fairly compared. As each new metric has been developed, it has served mostly to complement traditional scouting, a way to reality check when subjective opinions formed by watching and hearing about players were going too far astray." Oliver believes that, for now, "advanced basketball statistics" are more valuable in terms of evaluating a team's effectiveness and best lineup combinations as opposed to producing allegedly definitive individual player evaluations.

Labels: "advanced basketball statistics", assists, Charley Rosen, Chris Paul, Dean Oliver

posted by David Friedman @ 2:29 AM

0 comments

The Amazing Allen Iverson

On October 30, Allen Iverson officially retired as an NBA player. Iverson previously had a short-lived 2009 retirement before playing 28 games in the 2009-10 season but this retirement has an air of finality to it: he has not played in the league for three years and it is unlikely that there is much of a market for a 38 year old, 6-0 shooting guard even if Iverson decided that he did want to come back. I discussed Iverson's legacy right after his first retirement but it is worth reiterating--and updating--his incredible career numbers and his high ranking on the NBA/ABA regular season lists in several important categories, including fourth in mpg (41.1), sixth in ppg (26.7), ninth in spg (2.17), 12th in free throws made (6375) and 24th in points (24,368). Iverson also left a firm imprint on the NBA/ABA career playoff leaderboard, ranking second in ppg (29.7), third in mpg (45.1) and seventh in spg (2.07).

Allen Iverson is the most amazing athlete who I have seen in person--he is not the greatest athlete who I have seen or even just the greatest basketball player who I have seen but he is the most amazing athlete because of what he accomplished over a long period of time despite being just 6-0 tall (if that) and weighing less than 180 pounds. Iverson is a normal-sized man who could do abnormal things on a basketball court, things that few if any people his size could do.

One firsthand impression of Iverson particularly stands out; on December 15, 2001, I sat in the stands at Gund Arena and watched Iverson drop 40 points on 18-29 field goal shooting in 46 minutes as his Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 94-91. Iverson also had nine assists, six rebounds and three steals. He survived what I would call the "bump and run" defense of the rugged and savvy Andre Miller; despite being grabbed, held and pushed by the bigger and stronger Miller, Iverson raced around the court, scoring at will. Iverson played with that same relentless attitude--and endured a similar pounding--for 914 regular season games plus 71 playoff games. He led the league in mpg an astonishing seven times (trailing only Wilt Chamberlain, who topped the NBA in that category nine times) and he averaged at least 40 mpg in 11 of his 14 seasons. Iverson's durability and his insatiable competitive desire are two underrated aspects of his greatness.

The "stat gurus" will never like Iverson's game and many fans will always resent Iverson's style, appearance and attitude--but the man deserves to be respected for his toughness, his determination, and the way that he established himself as arguably the greatest 6-0 and under player in the history of professional basketball. Few "little" men have been the best player on a legitimate championship contender but in 2001 Iverson won the regular season MVP before carrying the Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA Finals. Iverson averaged a series-high 35.6 ppg while playing a series-high 47.4 mpg in the 2001 NBA Finals but even his brilliant play could only net one victory for the 76ers--though it is worth emphasizing that this was one more victory than the rest of the playoff field combined achieved against a dominant L.A. Lakers squad led by Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, two superstars who are much bigger and stronger than Iverson.

So many people have said and written so many things about Iverson, so the man deserves the last word. Here is a portion of the retirement speech that he gave on October 30:

You know, I thought once this day came it would be basically a tragic day. I never imagined the day coming, but I knew it would come. I feel proud and happy to say that I’m happy with my decision and I feel great. I’m in a great mindset making a decision...

I always had the physical talent, I always had the physical ability, I could run with the best of them, I could jump with the best of them, but I just didn’t know the game. Earlier in my career, I didn’t take criticism the right way. But it was always constructive criticism coming from coach (Larry) Brown, it was always love that he had for me and I had to mature and understand that he was there, trying to [help me] become the player I ultimately ended up being. Once I took hold to everything he had to share with me, as far as the mental aspect of the game, that’s when it took me from here to here [raises hand] and took me to MVP status...

I gave everything I had to basketball and the passion is still there, the desire to play is just not. I just feel good that I’m happy with the decision I’m making. It was a great ride.

Labels: Allen Iverson, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:08 PM

2 comments

LeBron James Posts 500th Consecutive Double Figure Scoring Game

LeBron James scored a season-high 35 points on 13-20 field goal shooting in the Miami Heat's 104-95 win over the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. James has now scored at least 10 points in 500 consecutive regular season games, the sixth best such streak in NBA history--a feat exceeded only by Michael Jordan (866 games), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (787), Karl Malone (575), Moses Malone (526) and Abdul-Jabbar (508). The players ahead of James on that list are all elite scorers: Abdul-Jabbar is the all-time ABA/NBA career regular season scoring leader (38,387 points), Karl Malone ranks second (36,928 points), Jordan ranks third (32,292 points) and Moses Malone ranks seventh (29,580 points). James has scored in double figures in every game he played in seven of his 10 full seasons; only Abdul-Jabbar (15 seasons), Jordan (12 seasons) and Karl Malone/Kevin Garnett (nine seasons each) had more seasons in which they scored in double figures in every single game that they played. 

It is often asserted that James' greatest skill set strength is his passing ability but the reality is that--even though James is a great passer/playmaker--James is one of the most prolific scorers in pro basketball history. James asserts himself as a scorer early and often; during his 500 game streak he has scored at least 10 points in the first quarter 162 times and during his career he has authored nine 50 point games while failing to score at least 10 points just eight times. When James is at his best, he is neither waiting for his teammates to get going nor is he deferring to them for any significant portion of the game; he pours in points in the first quarter and continues doing so for the rest of the game.

Labels: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Moses Malone

posted by David Friedman @ 2:57 PM

0 comments

Remembering Bill Sharman, Star Player and Coaching Innovator

Bill Sharman, who is one of only three people elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame as both a player and a coach (the others are John Wooden and Lenny Wilkens), passed away on Friday October 25 at the age of 87. Sharman led the Washington Capitols in scoring (12.2 ppg) as a rookie in 1950-51 before spending the rest of his 11 season NBA playing career with the Boston Celtics. He annually ranked among the league's elite in a host of categories, including scoring (seven top 10 finishes), free throw percentage (10 top 10 finishes, with a record seven times as the league leader), field goal percentage (six top 10 finishes) and assists (three top 10 finishes). An eight-time All-Star, Sharman played a key role on four Boston championship teams (1957, 1959-61). He was selected to the NBA's Silver Anniversary Team (10 retired players honored in 1971) and the in 1996 he was recognized as one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players.

After retiring as an NBA player, Sharman became one of the sport's greatest coaches, starting out in 1961 as a player-coach with the L.A. Jets in the short-lived American Basketball League (ABL). The Jets went out of business in the middle of the season and Sharman ended his playing career, joining the ABL's Cleveland Pipers strictly as a coach. Sharman led the Pipers to the 1962 ABL title, much to the delight of an owner who would later become very used to capturing championships--George Steinbrenner. Sharman then coached for a couple seasons at Cal State L.A. before being hired as the coach of the NBA's San Francisco Warriors in 1967. During his two season stint in the Bay Area, Sharman developed a concept that is now ubiquitous in the league: the morning shootaround. In a 2004 ESPN.com article, Charley Rosen explained how Sharman refined this idea:

Sharman pinpoints the origin of the shootaround to the beginning of the 1955-56 NBA season. "I was always very nervous the day of a game," he says. "I'd just walk around the house until it was time to go to the arena. There was a high school gym in the neighborhood, so one morning at about 10 o'clock, I decided to go over there just to dribble around and take a few shots. That night, I felt much looser and quicker than I normally did, and I had a much better shooting touch, too. So I went back to the gym the next time we played. After a while, I developed a routine for myself. I'd take the kinds of shots that I'd normally take during a game, and I kept shooting until I made five in a row from each spot. After a while, some of the other Celtics started coming to the gym with me."

Sharman reports that during his first five seasons in the NBA, he was an 86 percent free-throw shooter. In the five seasons after instituting his morning "shoot," his marksmanship increased to 92 percent.

After his playing days were history, Sharman became the coach of the Los Angeles Jets in the American Basketball League and established the shootaround as part of the club's game-day routine. "Everybody said I was crazy," Sharman remembers. "They especially objected to having a shootaround after playing the night before. They thought the players would be too stiff and too tired and liable to hurt themselves. But what actually happened was that the players were forced to get out of bed and break a sweat, which avoided that logy feeling that they often started a game with. They also developed the visual image and the positive reinforcement of the ball going through the hoop." 

In 1968, Sharman returned to L.A., this time as the coach of the L.A. Stars in the newly founded American Basketball Association (ABA). The Stars moved to Utah for the 1970-71 season and Sharman led the franchise to its first--and only--title.

Sharman jumped back to the NBA for the 1971-72 season, taking over a talent-rich L.A. Lakers team featuring arguably the greatest center, greatest forward and greatest guard in the sport's history (Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor and Jerry West respectively). Degenerating knees forced Baylor to retire after just nine games but the insertion of Jim McMillian into the starting lineup in Baylor's place proved to be the final piece to the championship puzzle: the Lakers roared to a 33 game winning streak--setting a record that still stands--en route to posting a 69-13 record that was not surpassed until the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls went 72-10 (the Bulls also went 69-13 in 1996-97). The Lakers romped through the playoffs, winning 12 of 15 games to capture Chamberlain's second title and West's lone championship.

The 46 year old Sharman seemed to have a glorious coaching future in front of him but in fact his career on the bench was already almost over; he developed some problems with his vocal cords in 1972 and a series of treatments only provided temporary relief before his speaking voice was reduced to a high pitched squeak that made it impossible for him to shout instructions from the sidelines. Sharman retired as the Lakers' coach in 1976, moving into a front office position with the team. If Sharman had been able to stay on the bench then he may very well have been the coach of the Showtime Lakers in the 1980s instead of Pat Riley.

Great players sometimes struggle as coaches because it is difficult for them to relate to players who do not possess superior talent and relentless drive but Sharman excelled as a coaching communicator and innovator. West once said of Sharman, "There's a right coach for the right team and the right personnel. And Bill was certainly the right coach for us."

Perhaps Wooden put it best in his letter of recommendation to the Basketball Hall of Fame: "If Bill Sharman isn't in the Hall of Fame as a coach, no one should be."

Labels: ABA, Basketball Hall of Fame, Bill Sharman, Boston Celtics, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Stars, NBA

posted by David Friedman @ 11:29 AM

0 comments

Charting Chris Paul's Assists Versus the Golden State Warriors

On several occasions, I have charted the assists that have officially been credited to various players in order to determine how accurate the NBA's "official" assist totals are. Last night, Chris Paul authored a spectacular performance as his L.A. Clippers defeated the Golden State Warriors 126-115: Paul scored 42 points, dished off 15 assists and swiped six steals, becoming the first player to post 40-15-5 in those categories since the NBA began officially recording steals in the 1973-74 season--but did all of Paul's assists fit the strict rulebook requirements for an assist? It is no secret that NBA scorekeepers often employ a very liberal definition of an assist; here is the official description of an assist, as posted at NBA.com in 2002 (the rule has not changed since that time):

An assist is a pass that directly leads to a basket. This can be a pass to the low post that leads to a direct score, a long pass for a layup, a fast break pass to a teammate for a layup, and/or a pass that results in an open perimeter shot for a teammate. In basketball, an assist is awarded only if, in the judgement of the statistician, the last player's pass contributed directly to a made basket. An assist can be awarded for a basket scored after the ball has been dribbled if the player's pass led to the field goal being made.

The last sentence brings some subjectivity into the matter but old school scorekeepers would not award an assist on a play in which the recipient of the pass clearly did the bulk of the work to get open.

Here is my take on Chris Paul's 15 assists versus the Warriors:

1: Blake Griffin dribble drive, 11:02 1st Q: Correct, but borderline; Paul passed to Griffin, who received the ball at the free throw line, made a slight fake, took one dribble and scored. Griffin made an immediate attempt to score after catching the ball--so the assist has some validity--but the play could also be interpreted as a one on one move, not an assisted basket.

2: J.J. Redick fastbreak layup, 7:40 1st Q: Correct; Paul passed to Redick, who scored an uncontested fastbreak layup.

3: Blake Griffin drive, 6:07 1st Q: Incorrect; Paul passed to Griffin on the right wing and Griffin made a fake, took four dribbles and made another fake before scoring a layup. Giving Paul an assist on this kind of play is such ridiculously bad scorekeeping that it makes one question the validity of the assist statistic, because Paul had nothing whatsoever to do with Griffin scoring on the play. Griffin created the shot entirely for himself.

4: DeAndre Jordan dunk, 5:48 1st Q: Correct; Paul lobbed the ball to Jordan for the dunk.

5: Jared Dudley jumper, 5:13 1st Q: Correct; Paul fed Dudley for a catch and shoot jumper.

6: Blake Griffin jumper, 4:28 1st Q: Correct; Paul inbounded to Griffin, who held the ball briefly before nailing a jumper. A very strict scorekeeper might not award an assist because Griffin did not make an immediate attempt to score after receiving the pass.

7: Jared Dudley three pointer, 4:19 2nd Q: Correct; Paul passed to Dudley, who immediately fired away from long distance.

8: Jared Dudley fastbreak layup, 3:19 2nd Q: Correct; Paul fed Dudley, whose layup attempt was goaltended by Andre Iguodala.

9: J.J. Redick jumper, 1:44 2nd Q: Incorrect; Paul swung the ball to Redick, who used a pick and took two escape dribbles before nailing a tough, contested shot. Redick created the shot opportunity for himself, as opposed to the shot being created by Paul's pass.

10: Blake Griffin fastbreak dunk, 5:03 3rd Q: Correct; Paul lobbed the ball to Griffin for the dunk.

11: Blake Griffin fastbreak dunk, 4:47 3rd Q: Correct; Paul lobbed the ball to Griffin for the dunk.

12: Blake Griffin fastbreak dunk, 4:31 3rd Q: Correct; Paul lobbed the ball to Griffin for the dunk.

13: Jamal Crawford three pointer, 9:44 4th Q: Correct; Paul passed to Crawford for a catch and shoot jumper.

14: Jamal Crawford layup, 8:10 4th Q: Correct; Paul inbounded to Crawford for an uncontested layup.

15: J.J. Redick three pointer, 3:11 4th Q: Correct; Paul dished to Redick for a catch and shoot jumper.

Two of Paul's assists were incorrectly scored, one was a borderline case and the remaining 12 were clearly legitimate. This is the seventh time that I have charted Chris Paul's assists; in those games, he has been officially credited with 87 assists but only 70 of those assists comply with the rulebook definition--and that includes several borderline plays. Why does this matter? Assist totals are used by some commentators as a way to evaluate who are the league's best passers--and "stat gurus" use raw assist totals as part of their "advanced basketball statistics." Thus, if the raw assist totals are inflated/inaccurate, it is not appropriate to rank passers based on assist numbers and the "advanced basketball statistics" have to be taken with a grain of salt because the basic, raw statistics used to create the "advanced" numbers may not be correct.

Labels: assists, Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers

posted by David Friedman @ 4:38 PM

4 comments

First Impressions of the 2013-14 Season

The NBA season is a long grind and it would be foolish to draw definitive conclusions just two days into the process but every team has played at least one game and we have seen some interesting things so far:

1. Mike Brown will once again transform the Cavaliers into a top notch defensive team; in their home debut, they held the Brooklyn Nets to .402 field goal shooting while also winning the rebounding battle 48-37. Cleveland's 98-94 victory over a team that most people expect to be an Eastern Conference contender is surprising only to those who do not understand that Brown is one of the league's best coaches. 
2. The L.A. Lakers added some three point shooters and they will have a chance to win on the nights when their long range bombs hit their targets--but they are terrible defensively, they are soft mentally and physically and they will only make the playoffs if Kobe Bryant not only returns to action but if he is able to score 28-30 ppg.
3. Derrick Rose looked OK physically in his regular season debut but he is very rusty; he scored just 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting as his Chicago Bulls fell 107-95 to the Miami Heat. He also had four assists and five turnovers. If the Bulls are going to beat the Heat in a playoff series Rose must produce at least 23-25 ppg while shooting at least .450 from the field. 
4. There is no question that LeBron James is an excellent passer, rebounder and defender--but, despite what anyone (including James himself) says, his greatest skill is scoring: he ranks third in NBA/ABA regular season history with a 27.5 ppg scoring average (trailing only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain) and he ranks fifth in NBA/ABA playoff history with a 28.1 ppg scoring average (trailing only Jordan, Allen Iverson, Jerry West and Kevin Durant). James led the NBA in playoff scoring in 2009 (35.3 ppg) and 2012 (30.3 ppg) and he has averaged at least 25.1 ppg in seven of his eight postseason campaigns. James' signature playoff performances during his two championship seasons have all included outstanding scoring numbers, including 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting in game seven of the 2013 NBA Finals, 32 points on 8-17 field goal shooting in game seven of the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals, 26 points on 9-19 field goal shooting in the clinching game five of the 2012 NBA Finals, 31 points on 9-21 field goal shooting in game seven of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals and 45 points on 19-26 field goal shooting in game six of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals. With Dwyane Wade declining and Chris Bosh relegated to a glorified Horace Grant-jump shooting role, the Miami Heat need for James to continue to score prolifically and efficiently.
5. The Memphis Grizzlies miss Rudy Gay's scoring and Lionel Hollins' coaching; they shot just .419 from the field in their 101-94 season-opening loss to the San Antonio Spurs, failing to capitalize on an injury that limited Tim Duncan to three points in just 17 minutes.
6. Gay scored a team-high 19 points on 8-18 field goal shooting as his Toronto Raptors beat the Boston Celtics 93-87 in the first game of the season for both teams.
7. The Oklahoma City Thunder will need for Kevin Durant to be in Kobe Bryant 2006 mode just to tread water until Russell Westbrook returns from his knee injury; Durant scored 42 points on 9-24 field goal shooting as the Thunder barely held off the rebuilding Utah Jazz, 101-98.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Mike Brown, Oklahoma City Thunder, Rudy Gay, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 1:26 PM

2 comments

Kobe Bryant Ponders His Basketball Mortality

It happens in the blink of an eye: one minute you are young, naive, raw, eager, wide-eyed and the next minute you are old, world-weary, seasoned, clear-eyed--and you are wondering how the years flew by so quickly.

Was it only yesterday that Kobe Bryant waved off a Karl Malone screen in an All-Star Game? Remember when Bryant shot three air balls at the end of a playoff game versus Utah? Or when he saved the Lakers in the pivotal fourth game of the 2000 NBA Finals after Shaquille O'Neal fouled out, lifting the Lakers to a 3-1 series lead despite being limited by a sprained ankle? Actually, many young NBA fans do not remember any of those things because they were not even born when those things happened.

Bryant's youth is ancient history and the signs of his basketball mortality are popping up with increasing frequency: his right knee is balky, his left Achilles ruptured late last season under the pressure of carrying a poorly coached team filled with indifferent players and now the critics are out in full force, with one survey ranking Bryant as the 25th best NBA player and even the league's general managers demoting Bryant to the NBA's second best shooting guard. Bryant ranked second in minutes (38.6 mpg), third in scoring (27.3 ppg) and third in free throws made (525) last season, so he clearly was a lot better than 25th in the NBA before he got hurt--but his age (35) and especially the Achilles injury cause people to wonder how long Bryant can maintain his lofty status.

Bryant's greatest trait may be his unfailing belief in himself, an incredible self-confidence that once led him to quip to this writer, "For better or worse, I'm very optimistic. I'm glad that I don't have a gambling vice." That optimism does not blind Bryant to reality, though; he gets it: he knows that his career is almost over and that it may not end the way that he wants it to end but he is also trying very hard to leave the game on his terms. Here are some quotes from Lee Jenkins' October 21, 2013 Sports Illustrated article about how Bryant is coping with the denouement of one of pro basketball's greatest careers:

"I have self-doubt. I have insecurity. I have fear of failure. I have nights when I show up at the arena and I'm like, 'My back hurts, my feet hurt, my knees hurt. I don't have it. I just want to chill.' We all have self-doubt. You don't deny it, but you also don't capitulate to it. You embrace it. You rise above it...I don't know how I'm going to come back from this injury. I don't know. Maybe I'll be horse----. Then again, maybe I won't, because no matter what, my belief is that I'm going to figure it out. Maybe not this year or even next year, but I'm going to stay with it until I figure it out."

Bryant is confident but he has no illusions and he has already labeled this phase of his career The Last Chapter: "The book is going to close. I just haven't determined how many pages are left. I'm reflective only in the sense that I learn to move forward. I reflect with a purpose."

Bryant does not apologize for how hard he pushes himself and how hard he pushes his teammates: "I can't relate to lazy people. We don't speak the same language. I don't understand you. I don't want to understand you. Go over there. If I drive somebody too hard, and he feels like he's overcommitting to the game and cracks because of it, I don't want to go to battle with him in the seventh game anyway...Some guys don't want this. It's too much. It's too uncomfortable. If that's the case, then we can't play together. It won't work. I believe you need a confrontational crew. If I have to resort to this [shaking his head] instead of telling you that you're being lazy and f------ up, then we'll never resolve anything."

How will Bryant's body respond after Achilles surgery/rehabilitation? Bryant does not pretend to know for sure, but he has a plan: "Maybe I won't have as much explosion. Maybe I'll be slower. Maybe I'll lose quickness. But I have other options. It's like Floyd Mayweather in the ring. There's a reason he's still at the top after all these years. He's the most fundamentally sound boxer of all time. He can fight myriad styles at myriad tempos. He can throw fast punches or off-speed punches, and he can throw them from odd angles."

Labels: Floyd Mayweather, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

posted by David Friedman @ 4:24 AM

1 comments

2013-14 Western Conference Preview

The San Antonio Spurs are the NBA's 21st century version of Rasputin: just when you think that they are dead and gone, they prove that they still have a lot of life left. Coach Gregg Popovich rested his key players during the regular season--earning a $250,000 fine from the NBA--but still led the team to the second best record in the Western Conference (58-24) in the 2012-13 season, two games behind the 2012 Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder. When the Thunder lost All-NBA guard Russell Westbrook to a knee injury, that opened a path for the Spurs to advance to the NBA Finals and the Spurs pushed the defending champion Miami Heat to seven games.

Westbrook is expected to miss the first four to six weeks of the regular season and his absence will probably cost the Thunder the top seed in the conference; the Spurs' Big Three (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili)--supplemented by young players Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Danny Green--are well positioned to take advantage of this opportunity and seize homecourt advantage throughout the 2014 Western Conference playoffs.

Houston is the most intriguing Western Conference team; if newly acquired Dwight Howard is completely healthy physically and fully engaged mentally then the Rockets could be a championship contender but it is not clear if the Rockets possess the necessary collective mental and physical toughness to make a deep playoff run.

Coaching matters in the NBA and the 2013-14 season should provide at least two vivid examples of this: the Memphis Grizzlies will be markedly worse off without Lionel Hollins, while the L.A. Clippers should be better off thanks to the addition of Doc Rivers. Hollins transformed the Memphis Grizzlies into a physically imposing, mentally disciplined team but the Rudy Gay trade and the subsequent departure of Hollins mean that the Grizzlies are no longer an elite level squad.Vinny Del Negro is not as bad of a coach as some of his critics suggest but Rivers is one of the league's best coaches; Rivers will transform the Clippers into a defensive-minded team that not only can win 50-plus regular season games but can also be a more serious postseason threat.

This preview has the same format as the Eastern Conference Preview that I posted yesterday; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals and not necessarily in the order that the teams will be seeded during the playoffs (which is affected by which teams win division championships).

1) San Antonio Spurs: Reasons for hope: The Big Three are still productive and efficient--though Manu Ginobili is clearly declining--while Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Danny Green are being groomed to fill larger roles.

Reasons to mope: The Spurs are not as athletic as some of the other top contenders; this hurt them in key stretches against the Heat in the 2013 NBA Finals and it could be a problem again in the 2014 playoffs, depending on the matchups.

Bottom line: The Westbrook injury may very well clinch the West's best record for the Spurs; the Spurs will be able to rest key players and still stay just ahead of the pack, something that would have been much more difficult to do if the Thunder were able to post 60-plus wins. If Leonard can replace Ginobili as a full fledged member of the Big Three then the Spurs could win the championship.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: Reasons for hope: Kevin Durant will keep the Thunder afloat until Westbrook makes his healthy return. The Thunder are an excellently coached team with a well-balanced roster; they ranked first in blocked shots, second in defensive field goal percentage, third in field goal percentage and sixth in rebounding. Many critics boldly declared that the Thunder would not be the same without James Harden but Harden is not an elite player and the Thunder did not miss a beat after his departure, posting the best record in the Western Conference and the franchise's best single season winning percentage since 1997-98. If Westbrook had not been injured then the Thunder likely would have advanced to the NBA Finals for the second year in a row.

Reasons to mope: The Thunder were the second best team in the NBA with Westbrook and they won their first two playoff games with him in the lineup but after his injury they struggled to get by Houston in the first round before losing 4-1 to Memphis. Oklahoma City went 62-20 (regular season and playoffs combined) with Westbrook but just 3-6 without him. The Thunder are not an elite team without Westbrook. Their whole season will be made or broken by how quickly he makes a fully healthy return to action.

Bottom line: A 2014 Western Conference Finals matchup between San Antonio and Oklahoma City could become one of the NBA's instant classic series. The Spurs will probably enjoy homecourt advantage--thanks to Westbrook's injury--but the Thunder beat the Spurs 4-2 in the 2012 Western Conference semifinals despite not having homecourt advantage.

3) L.A. Clippers: Reasons for hope: Doc Rivers will transform the Clippers from "Lob City" into a defensive-minded team that attacks the paint offensively instead of settling for jump shots. Chris Paul is an elite point guard and Blake Griffin has the potential to be an elite power forward.

Reasons to mope: TNT's Charles Barkley has quipped that you cannot win a championship if your toughest player is a six foot point guard and there is a large degree of truth to that offhand comment; Rivers' biggest challenge with this team is not making a specific strategic adjustment but rather changing the players' mindset about how to compete aggressively against elite level teams without committing foolish fouls and/or losing track of the game plan. 

Bottom line: The Clippers will be better with Rivers at the helm but they still are not quite good enough to beat the Spurs or Thunder in a seven game series.

4) Houston Rockets: Reasons for hope: A healthy, motivated Dwight Howard is the best center in the league; his presence in the paint will immensely improve the Rockets at both ends of the court, assuming that he is mentally and physically at full strength.

Reasons to mope: Howard is the only defensive-minded player in the seven or eight man rotation. James Harden put up big scoring numbers during the regular season but he shot just .438 from the field and he is a limited offensive player who has no midrange game; he either shoots three pointers or else flings his body into defenders, hoping to draw fouls: if his outside shot is off and defenders are savvy enough to avoid contact then he has no backup plan, as demonstrated during the playoffs when he shot just .391 from the field and committed 4.5 turnovers per game. 

Bottom line: Elite teams will guard Howard one on one in the post and crowd Harden at the three point line but not foul him during his forays into the paint. Howard will greatly improve Houston's defense but the Rockets still will not be a top notch defensive team. The Rockets will win more than 50 regular season games but they will not reach the Western Conference Finals.

5) Golden State Warriors: Reasons for hope: Stephen Curry averaged a career-high 22.9 ppg (seventh best in the NBA) last season while ranking first in the league in three pointers made (272) and attempted (600). He ranked third in three point field goal percentage for the third season in a row. Curry also ranked seventh in the league in mpg (38.7), a very encouraging statistic for a player who has been plagued by nagging ankle injuries. Coach Mark Jackson has changed the franchise's basketball culture, transforming a run and gun team into a staunch defensive outfit that ranked third in rebounding and fourth in defensive field goal percentage.

Reasons to mope: Despite their significant improvement, the Warriors were not mentally or physically up to the challenge of facing the tough and wily Spurs in the playoffs. The Warriors are a very good team but they have at least one more step to go before they are a championship-contending team--and that step has more to do with a continued evolution of their collective mindset than it has to do with talent. That said, Jackson has laid out the blueprint for championship-level success and the Warriors are on the right track, even though they might not be quite ready to challenge the conference's top four teams this season.

Bottom line: The addition of Andre Iguodala markedly strengthens the team's overall defense and if Curry,  David Lee and Andrew Bogut can stay healthy then the Warriors could perhaps take the next step and fight for a berth in the Western Conference Finals.

6) Memphis Grizzlies: Reasons for hope: The big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol can cause headaches for any team. Tony Allen is a terrific wing defender and Mike Conley has emerged as an first rate point guard.

Reasons to mope: Lionel Hollins is an excellent coach with a championship pedigree as a player; his replacement Dave Joerger has yet to coach a single NBA game. The Grizzlies missed Rudy Gay's shot creation abilities during the playoffs and they will miss him even more over the course of the 2013-14 regular season.

Bottom line: The Gay trade and Hollins' departure are major setbacks for the Grizzlies, who now look like first round playoff fodder.

7) Denver Nuggets: Reasons for hope: The roster lacks a bona fide All-Star but is stacked with a large number of very good players. George Karl annually led the Nuggets to the playoffs but was usually unable to guide them past the first round. New Coach Brian Shaw won championships as a player and as an assistant coach.

Reasons to mope: While Karl can perhaps be faulted for some of the first round losses that his teams suffered over the years (going all the way back to his days in Seattle), this Denver team is simply not good enough to win a playoff series in the tough Western Conference. The idea of trying to win a title with 10 good players but no superstars is intriguing but perhaps not very realistic.

Bottom line: Some commentators are predicting that the Nuggets will miss the playoffs but I see no reason to think that they will slide that much. Andre Iguodala's departure will hurt Denver at both ends of the court--they will obviously miss his defensive prowess but his playmaking skills (he averaged 5.4 apg for the Nuggets last season) are also valuable--but the Nuggets are not going to drop all the way from the third seed to the Draft Lottery unless they suffer a wave of injuries to key players.
 
8) Minnesota Timberwolves: Reasons for hope: The Timberwolves were a .500 club with Kevin Love (9-9) and a .344 club without him (22-42). In the 2011-12 season, the Timberwolves went 24-31 with Love (.436) and 2-9 without him (.182). If Love stays reasonably healthy for the entire season, there is just enough talent around him for Minnesota to snag the West's final playoff spot.

Reasons to mope: Most playoff teams are defined by something that they do very well but the Timberwolves have yet to establish such an identity; last season they ranked 24th in both field goal percentage and defensive field goal percentage. 

Bottom line: The eighth seed in the West will probably win between 43 and 46 games. The acquisition of Kevin Martin should add some punch to the offense and if Love stays healthy then the Timberwolves should be able to stay just ahead of a pack of several Western teams that will be fighting down to the wire for the opportunity to lose to San Antonio in the first round.

Mark Cuban blew up a championship team because he thought that he could sweet talk a superstar into signing with Dallas to play alongside Dirk Nowitzki; that gamble failed and now the Mavericks have been reduced to a generic team struggling to stay above .500. If Nowitzki is healthy for the entire season then Dallas could seize the eighth spot or maybe even move up to seventh but this team does not have enough talent or toughness to make much more noise than that.

Anthony Davis is no Bill Russell--I am not even convinced that he is Dikembe Mutombo--but the New Orleans Pelicans added some top flight backcourt talent (All-Star Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans) and they are a dark horse contender for the West's final playoff spot.

The L.A. Lakers replaced the league's best center with Chris Kaman and made no other notable moves. Kobe Bryant may return from his Achilles injury in time for the first regular season game but it remains to be seen if he can still play at an All-NBA First Team level. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are well past their primes. The Lakers barely squeaked into the playoffs with Dwight Howard on the court and Bryant having 2006 flashbacks in the second half of the campaign, so it is foolish to expect a playoff appearance from the Lakers sans Howard and with Bryant at less than 100%. Perhaps the Lakers can hang around .500 for most of the season and then make a late run for the eighth seed if Bryant is able to average 35 ppg for the final month of the season but the most likely scenario is that the Lakers miss the playoffs and face some serious decisions next summer.

The Portland Trail Blazers were contending for a playoff spot before losing their final 13 games. They have enough talent to finish in the top eight but that spring swoon gives one pause. Portland ranked 24th in rebounding and 29th in defensive field goal percentage, numbers that do not inspire confidence about their 2014 postseason prospects.

Tyreke Evans' production steadily declined after an excellent rookie season and the Sacramento Kings finally gave up on him, shipping him out to acquire Greivis Vasquez. The Kings are hoping that Demarcus Cousins matures on and off of the court. This team is not talented enough or disciplined enough to make the playoffs.

The name "Jazz" does not really fit in Utah so how about "Tanks"? I am not saying that the Jazz are giving up on the 2013-14 season but it certainly does not seem like they are very interested in contending for a 2014 playoff spot. The 2011-12 Jazz made the playoffs with a young roster (each of the six players who logged at least 1100 minutes was 28 or younger) but four of those players are no longer on the team. Last summer, the Jazz lost their top two scorers (Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap) but made no effort to acquire a veteran who can put the ball in the hoop. Gordon Hayward (14.1 ppg) is the leading returning scorer--and that statement screams "Draft Lottery here we come!"

As for the Suns, I will repeat what I wrote in last season's Western Conference Preview: "I am still waiting for anyone to coherently explain Phoenix' plan to me."

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2013 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2012 Total: 51/64 (.797)

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, L.A. Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 10:40 PM

0 comments

2013-14 Eastern Conference Preview

During LeBron James' first two seasons in Miami, the Heat's regular season winning percentage hovered around the .700 mark--not bad, but not even as good as the record posted by the Cavaliers during James' final two seasons in Cleveland (127-37, .774). In 2012-13, the Heat became dominant, winning 27 straight games--the second best such streak of all-time, trailing only the 33 game run enjoyed by the 1971-72 Lakers--en route to posting a league-best 66-16 record.

Life proved to be more difficult during the playoffs, as both Indiana and San Antonio extended the Heat to seven games, but the Heat won both of those series and successfully defended their 2012 championship. James may never fulfill his vow to lead the Heat to six or seven championships but he has already more than matched reasonable expectations, winning two titles in three Finals appearances since he left Cleveland.

James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are now seeking their third straight championship; only George Mikan's Lakers, Bill Russell's Celtics, the Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen Bulls and the Shaquille O'Neal/Kobe Bryant Lakers won at least three NBA titles in a row.

The Heat face two key questions:

1) Is Dwyane Wade a declining player or was his postseason swoon purely a result of an injury that could be completely healed/rehabilitated during the 2013 offseason?

2) Will it be possible to continue to overcome the lack of a dominant post presence?

Several Eastern teams have improved on paper but the Heat are still clearly the best team in the conference. Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs; as usual, I have ranked the teams based on the likelihood that they will make it to the NBA Finals (as opposed to how they will be seeded in the playoffs, which is affected by which teams win division titles).

1) Miami Heat: Reasons for hope: LeBron James is in the prime of one of the greatest careers in pro basketball history. He has eliminated virtually all of his skill set weaknesses, including the most prominent one: his odd tendency to be passive in clutch situations against elite teams during the playoffs (most notably against Boston in the 2010 playoffs and against Dallas in the 2011 Finals). Chris Bosh is an underrated, versatile performer whose agility and length are invaluable defensively and whose shooting touch spreads the floor. Bosh should have a bigger role in Miami's half court offense but even as a glorified Horace Grant-style jump shooter he still has an impact. When Dwyane Wade is even close to being healthy he and James wreak havoc at both ends of the court thanks to their speed and explosiveness.

Reasons to mope: Wade's body seems to be breaking down and it is not likely that he can play at an All-NBA level for an entire regular season plus an extended playoff run. Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra may have to consider resting Wade San Antonio Spurs-style in an attempt to reduce the wear and tear on Wade's balky knees.

The Heat have no post presence defensively and their only post presence offensively is provided by James (Bosh can play in the post but the Heat's offensive system primarily relegates him to a jump shooting role). They survived tough playoff challenges by big Indiana and San Antonio teams mainly because of James' all-around greatness but it will not be easy to win a third straight title if the Heat do not get some productive minutes out of their traditional centers. Perhaps Greg Oden can provide some solid post defense during the playoffs, enabling Bosh to shift back to his natural power forward position.

Bottom line: The Heat's strengths and weaknesses have not changed much in the past several years; they have made it to three straight Finals, they have won back to back championships and, barring injury, they have to be considered the favorites to win the East.

2) Indiana Pacers: Reasons for hope: The Pacers have a nice mixture of youth and experience and size and speed. Paul George is emerging as a star and Frank Vogel has established himself as an excellent coach. The Pacers pushed the Heat to seven games and if Danny Granger can get healthy perhaps the Pacers can end Miami's run.

Reasons to mope: George is an All-Star but he is not an All-NBA First Team caliber player--at least not yet. Most championship teams have at least one such player, someone who can take over the game in clutch situations.

Bottom line: The Pacers have the necessary size and tenacity to pose a formidable challenge to the Heat. It will be interesting to see if the Pacers rest on their laurels or if they take the next step and advance to the NBA Finals.

3) Chicago Bulls: Reasons for hope: Derrick Rose's return will provide a huge lift for one of the league's most anemic offenses. Coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive mastermind (the Bulls have ranked first, second and ninth in defensive field goal percentage during his three seasons in Chicago) and the boost that Rose provides offensively will enable the Bulls to set up their half court defense after made field goals as opposed to having to defend so often in transition after missed shots (the Bulls ranked 25th in field goal percentage last season after ranking 13th in that category during the 2010-11 campaign, Rose's last healthy season).

Reasons to mope: The Bulls are a gritty, defensive-minded team with enough frontcourt size and versatility to match up with any team in the league but Rose is the team's only All-NBA caliber player. It is not clear if the Bulls' discipline and physicality will be enough to overcome Miami's talent during a seven game series.

Bottom line: If Rose stays healthy the Bulls will challenge for the best record in the East but they have yet to prove that they can beat an elite team in a seven game series.

4) Brooklyn Nets: Reasons for hope: The Nets added Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry to a roster that went 49-33 last season. They are stacked with talent at every position: a three-time All-Star point guard (Deron Williams), a six-time All-Star shooting guard (Joe Johnson), a 10-time All-Star small forward (Pierce), a 15-time All-Star power forward (Garnett) and one of the top young centers in the league (2013 All-Star Brook Lopez).

Reasons to mope: Garnett, Pierce and Terry are well past their primes. Williams has performed sporadically since joining the Nets. Johnson has not averaged 20 ppg or shot better than .450 from the field since the 2009-10 season. Coach Jason Kidd, who replaced P.J. Carlesimo, has an incredibly high basketball IQ but he will inevitably suffer some growing pains in his first season as the bench boss.

Bottom line: Miami's Big Three joined forces in their respective primes and LeBron James is clearly the best player in the league but the Heat still did not win the title in their first year together; the Nets' star-studded lineup does not include a player who is even close to James' level and it is questionable how good this aging team will be defensively. On paper--or five years ago on the court--this looks like a championship team but on the court in 2013-14 the Nets are not better than Miami, Indiana or Chicago.

5) New York Knicks: Reasons for hope: The Knicks jumped out to a 20-7 start last season before finishing with a 54-28 record, second best in the East and New York's first 50 win season since 1999-00. Carmelo Anthony finished third in MVP voting, J.R. Smith won the Sixth Man award and Coach Mike Woodson did a remarkable job with a roster not known for having disciplined players: the Knicks led the league in fewest turnovers committed and they ranked seventh in points allowed.

Reasons to mope: Despite having homecourt advantage, the Knicks fell apart against Indiana in the Eastern Conference semifinals. During most of the regular season, veteran point guard Jason Kidd served as a steadying influence, counterbalancing the team's significant knucklehead factor, but Kidd slowed down physically in the second half of the season, forcing Woodson to reduce his role. Kidd retired and is now the Nets' coach; the Knicks will greatly miss Kidd's veteran savvy.

Bottom line: The Knicks have a roster that Phil Jackson called "clumsy". Many members of the national media hype up the team's potential and overrate the impact of the one-dimensional Anthony but the Knicks will once again fail to advance past the second round of the playoffs.

6) Atlanta Hawks: Reasons for hope: After annually making the playoffs but not being quite good enough to fight for the brass ring, the Hawks have a new look. The Hawks finished sixth in the East last season but General Manager Danny Ferry hit the reset button and almost completely remade the roster; Ferry knew that the team's old nucleus had maximized its potential and would never reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Reasons to mope: In order to challenge the Miami Heat and fight for the Eastern Conference title, a team must have a defensive mindset, a post presence at both ends of the court and, ideally, at least one elite level player. New coach Mike Budenholzer, a Gregg Popovich disciple, will try to instill that defensive mindset, but the Hawks do not have enough size or talent to be a serious contender this season.

Bottom line: The Hawks are not a championship level team but the foundation is in place to build in that direction if Ferry is able to acquire a star player and if Budenholzer can instill the San Antonio philosophy that he learned while serving under Popovich.

7) Cleveland Cavaliers: Reasons for hope: The Cavaliers foolishly fired Coach Mike Brown during the summer of 2010 at the height of the LeBron James Decision fiasco but they have rectified that mistake, bringing Brown back to mentor a young, talented roster that needs to learn the defensive mindset that Brown consistently emphasizes.

Reasons to mope: The Cavaliers are relying heavily on several injury-prone players, most notably Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao and Andrew Bynum. If one of those players misses significant playing time then the Cavaliers could once again be headed for the Draft Lottery.

Bottom line: Mike Brown is one of the top coaches in the NBA, Irving has the talent to be an All-NBA player and this team will be markedly improved defensively. Much depends on the health of players who have yet to prove that they can avoid injury but Cleveland's long post-Decision nightmare appears to be over.

8) Washington Wizards: Reasons for hope: If they can both stay healthy, John Wall and Bradley Beal could emerge as one of the league's most dynamic backcourts. The Wizards went 6-4 when both Wall and Beal were in the starting lineup, an outstanding record--albeit in a very small sample size--for a team that went 29-53 overall. The Wizards ranked fifth in defensive field goal percentage; in recent years the team has gotten rid of several young knuckleheads and is heading in the right direction.

Reasons to mope: The Wizards have not made the playoffs since the 2007-08 season and have been one of the league's most dysfunctional franchises for quite some time. It remains to be seen if the team's young nucleus can stay healthy and be consistent enough to lift the team out of Lottery land.

Bottom line: I am tapping the Wizards for the eighth playoff spot partially because I believe in their young backcourt and partially because I have little faith that any of the remaining East teams will scrape together 40 wins.

The Eastern Conference is still weak and a record in the vicinity of .500 will probably be good enough to grab the final two playoff spots. While I expect Cleveland and Washington to barely emerge from the pack, several Eastern bottom feeders could potentially get hot at the end of the season and sneak into the playoffs. The Toronto Raptors showed some signs of life after trading for Rudy Gay and they closed the season by winning seven of their last eight games, though those results have to be taken with a grain of salt because not all of their opponents were at full strength in those contests; new General Manager Masai Ujiri did a great job rebuilding the post-Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets and it will not be long before he turns Toronto into a playoff team, though it probably will not happen in 2013-14. The Charlotte Bobcats finally have a legitimate low post scoring threat (Al Jefferson) but even a 10 win improvement will still leave them short of qualifying for postseason play. The Orlando Magic have some nice young pieces--including Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo and rookie Victor Oladipo--and could be a dark horse contender for the eighth seed but it is more likely that they need to add some more talent before returning to postseason play. O.J. Mayo figures to be Milwaukee's leading scorer this season--and the Bucks figure to win fewer than 35 games. The Detroit Pistons have won between 25 and 30 games in each of the past four seasons. Joe Dumars' bizarre and inexplicable belief in Rodney Stuckey stalled the Pistons and bringing back an aging Chauncey Billups will hardly be enough to restore the franchise's faded glory. The Boston Celtics's Big Three plus Rajon Rondo now solely consists of Rondo; rookie Coach Brad Stevens will probably have a rough adjustment to pro basketball and the Celtics do not look like a playoff team even in the watered down East. Last season, the 76ers traded an All-Star caliber wing (Andre Iguodala) to acquire a center who did not play a single game for them (Andrew Bynum) before heading to Cleveland as a free agent; this season the 76ers traded an All-Star point guard (Jrue Holiday) for rookie center Nerlens Noel, who is still recovering from an ACL injury. It is safe to assume that Philadelphia will not be printing any 2014 playoff tickets.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2012-13 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2013 Total: 50/64 (.781)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 8:23 PM

1 comments