Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0
L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.
The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.
While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding.
Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.
Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.
The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).
Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.
Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.
Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season.
In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.
Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.
Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
