Spurs Swipe Homecourt Advantage From Suns
The San Antonio Spurs' 111-106 game one victory left the Phoenix Suns battered and bloodied both literally and figuratively. Steve Nash missed several crucial possessions down the stretch because of uncontrollable bleeding from his nose, the result of an accidental head butt that he suffered when he collided with Tony Parker while going for a steal with 2:53 remaining and the Suns trailing 100-99. Parker remained on the ground longer than Nash and emerged with a nasty bump on his head but Nash looked like he, not Oscar de la Hoya, had just gone 12 rounds with Floyd Mayweather. The Suns were able to patch Nash up so that he could stay in the game initially and he made a three pointer and a tough driving layup to keep the Suns in contact but Nash had to leave the game with :54 left when the bleeding could not be stopped. The Suns trailed 106-104 at that point and they were behind 110-106 when he came back in the game with :09 remaining. Nash's injury will provide Suns' apologists with a welcome excuse but the bigger picture reality is that this is a devastating loss for Phoenix: the game was played at their pace, on their homecourt and they still lost despite Nash's 31 points and eight assists.
Nothing has changed: the Spurs are more versatile than the Suns and are a better defensive team. We all know that they can beat the Suns in a slow down game but they can also beat them in an uptempo game, even if that is not San Antonio's preference. Nash's scoring was a little better than usual and his 8/3 assist/turnover ratio was a little worse than usual but that is all part of San Antonio's defensive plan: the Spurs make sure that they get back on defense in order to deny easy lob passes to Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. That puts the onus on Nash to either run the shot clock down farther than he wants or to take on a bigger role as a scorer. I've never understood why anyone double-teams Nash; it makes more sense to stay at home on the other four guys and do your best to slow Nash down one on one. That may result in a big scoring night for Nash, but that means 30-35 points, not 50-60, and the Suns cannot win with Nash scoring 30-35 while everyone else is held in check. Stoudemire shot just 6-19 from the field, though he certainly had some good moments as well en route to 20 points, 18 rebounds and five blocked shots. Nevertheless, Tim Duncan more than offset those numbers with 33 points, 16 rebounds and three blocked shots; Duncan shot 12-24 from the field. Meanwhile, Nash's counterpart Parker scored 32 points and had eight assists. Nash shot 11-18 (.611), which is very good, but Parker shot an even better 14-22 (.636). Yes, the game was close and either team could have won but that should be the rallying cry of the road team, not the home team; now the Suns must win game two, because heading to San Antonio for two games down 0-2 is a recipe for quick exit from the playoffs. Something else that may become a factor if the Suns are able to extend the series to six or seven games is the Spurs' superior depth: the Suns used just eight players, five of whom played at least 33 minutes, while the Spurs used 10 players, three of whom played at least 33 minutes. If the Suns make it to game six or game seven they will be a tired, worn down team by that time.
This series is interesting for two reasons: (1) the battle for Western Conference supremacy; (2) the eternal question of who is the NBA's best player. Nash is not a statistically dominant player: his numbers are comparable to those put up by his predecessors John Stockton, Kevin Johnson, Mark Price and others, none of whom got close to winning an MVP, and he is not ranked as the best player in the NBA by any of the most widely used formulas: Hollinger's PER, NBA EFF or the Roland Rating. There is no precedent for the league's best passer to be selected as the MVP unless that player also had a tremendous all around game (Magic Johnson--scorer, rebounder, passer deluxe) and/or was leading teams to championships (Magic Johnson again).
How does that relate to my oft repeated view that Kobe Bryant is both the best and the most valuable player? Bryant's claim to those titles is not based on the nebulous concept of "making one's teammates better" that Nash advocates use in lieu of individual statistics and/or championship success; all great players make their teammates better by drawing more defensive attention and then passing the ball when that extra coverage arrives, so Nash is no different than the other top five or 10 players in the league in that sense. Bryant is the best player because he is the most complete player, someone who scores, rebounds, passes and defends. From a scouting report standpoint, his game has no weaknesses. That does not mean that he is perfect or that he never makes mistakes or forces shots; that means that his game has no glaring holes. Nowitzki--well, let's not beat on a man while he is down; Nash is not a great one on one defender, so his impact is mainly felt on one end of the court; Duncan and LeBron James each have free throw line weaknesses.
As for value as it relates to winning, Bryant's value to his team can be demonstrated statistically by looking at the Lakers' performance when he is not on the court or aesthetically by simply watching a few Lakers games. Warning: the results are not pretty; Lakers Coach Phil Jackson had good reason to recently say that his players performed with the intelligence of slugs and earthworms. Bryant's status as the best/most valuable player should not hinge on whether or not his teammates convert the open shots that he provides. Bryant's impact is obvious and it is equally obvious that he is willing to distribute the ball or shoot as the situation warrants; he leads the team in assists but is also capable of averaging 40 ppg for a month if his coach says that is the only way to save the season.
Nash may yet lead the Suns past the Spurs and to an NBA title but the more likely scenario is that in a week to 10 days he will be on the same fishing boat with Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant. Then maybe someone can explain why Nash is better than Nowitzki or Bryant, each of whom has enjoyed greater success both statistically and from a team standpoint than Nash has so far. The statistical case to support Nash as the best player is simply not there and after three years we are still waiting to see Nash's "value toward winning" translate into even one NBA Finals appearance. An even better question is this: Duncan's Spurs won the championship during Nash's first MVP year (2005), so how will it look if they knock off the Suns and win the title this year, giving Duncan two championships in three years but no MVPs during that span? If Nash got two MVPs based solely on his contributions to team success, shouldn't he forward the trophies to a player who actually has led his team to ultimate success?
Nash is a great player, one of the five best in the NBA today in my opinion. What I don't understand is his ascension in the eyes of many to the number one spot despite a lack of statistical support or championship hardware to justify ranking him as the absolute best. The other thing that I don't get is why it is some kind of sacrilege to suggest that Nash might "merely" be a top five player and not the consensus number one. Nash fanatics regularly suggest that Bryant is not even a top ten player and that his defense is overrated, two claims that are so ludicrous on the surface that they barely deserve reply; suffice it to say that it would be hard to find many coaches or scouts who would agree with those sentiments (out of context statements by one or two people do not count as a consensus of opinion among coaches and scouts).
This is an interesting time for Nash-philes because if he leads the Suns to the title then he is simply living up to the outsized expectations that have been placed on him--but if the Suns again fail to even make it to the Finals then Nash's "supreme" contributions to winning deserve some scrutiny. Rather than awarding regular season MVPs based on what we think or expect a team's ultimate success will be why not simply determine who the best, most complete player is and give that player the award? Then we won't feel like we need a recount after each round of the playoffs.
posted by David Friedman @ 6:15 AM
Pavlovic's Prince-Like Block Preserves Cavs' Win
Cleveland dominated the boards 51-38 and held New Jersey to .372 shooting from the field in an 81-77 victory in game one of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. New Jersey had a chance to pull within two with 1:45 left in the game when Jason Kidd stole Larry Hughes' errant pass and seemed to have a clear path to the hoop for a layup--but Sasha Pavlovic sprinted back and swatted Kidd's shot away at the last possible second, a play reminiscent of Tayshaun Prince's
block against Reggie Miller in Game Two of the 2004 Eastern Conference Finals. Pavlovic also scored a playoff career-high 15 points and was the only player on either team to attempt at least 11 shots and shoot better than .500 from the field. LeBron James had 21 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists but shot just 8-21, while Vince Carter posted very similar numbers in defeat: 21 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, 7-23 shooting. Drew Gooden added a double double for Cleveland (14 points, 14 rebounds), while Jason Kidd narrowly missed a triple double for New Jersey (seven points, 10 rebounds, nine assists).
The score was close throughout the game, with neither team ever enjoying a lead greater than eight points. With 2:30 remaining in the first quarter, Cleveland led 18-17 and both teams had shot 8-19 from the field; the only difference was that Cleveland had made two three pointers compared to New Jersey's one. The Nets had their greatest success in the second quarter as Carter shot 4-8 from the field for 11 points and New Jersey led 33-25 at the 7:55 mark. Pavlovic and Hughes countered with seven points each during the period and by halftime the Cavaliers were ahead 43-40. New Jersey took a three point lead briefly in the third quarter but by the end of the period the score was knotted at 59. While both teams shot poorly, the Cavaliers grabbed 20 offensive rebounds during the game compared to just nine for New Jersey.
Richard Jefferson's three pointer at the 10:49 mark in the fourth quarter put the Nets up 65-61 but a little over six minutes later the Cavaliers had turned the tables and taken a 75-69 lead. James led both teams with nine points in the fourth quarter. Jefferson's strong driving layup brought the Nets to within 75-71 and when Hughes threw the ball away on the next possession it looked like Kidd could cruise in for the layup--but Pavlovic's block maintained the all important two possession lead. The teams traded empty possessions after Pavlovic's block, so when Nachbar made two free throws at the :56.7 mark the Nets were still down two points. Hughes nailed a jumper, Carter hit two free throws and then James made a runner to close out the scoring. Without Pavlovic's block, the score--and thus the strategy for both teams--would have been different. After the game, Pavlovic said of his blocked shot, "I lost the ball on that pass and I just didn't give up on the play because it was very important. I knew Jason Kidd probably was not going to dunk, so I just followed him and tried to get the ball...It was important. I don't think it won the game but it was important for us. We just can't give up on plays."
Cleveland Coach Mike Brown said, "Sasha's play was a heck of a play. We call that a winning play. He did not give up on the play. He continued trying to run Kidd down. The block was an unbelievable play and kept the crowd into it. It really energized our team. We are going to need plays like that throughout the course of the series in order to get over the hump."
While Pavlovic's block was the game's signature moment, the main overall theme was Cleveland's rebounding dominance, a key factor in the thinking of both squads prior to the series. Starting guards Kidd and Carter got 23 of the Nets' 37 rebounds and if New Jersey's frontcourt does not provide more help on the glass then it will be difficult for the Nets to win this series.
*****************************
Notes From Courtside:
Less than a week ago, I wrote a
post about Kobe Bryant being selected to the All-Defensive First Team, a squad that is chosen by the NBA's 30 head coaches. As I indicated at that time and in some earlier posts, I suspect that NBA head coaches have a better idea about who is playing good defense and who is not than fans and random writers do. I had never heard anyone actually ask any of the coaches what their thought process is regarding the All-Defensive Team but I always assumed that heavy consideration was given to players whose strong defense shows up in game film and/or scouting reports. During Coach Brown's standup prior to the game, I asked him this question: "Most of the postseason awards are voted on by the media but the one that is voted on by the coaches is the All-Defensive Team. What is the thought process that head coaches go through when they vote for the All-Defensive Team? Do you look at stats like steals and blocked shots or how various players performed against your team? What exactly goes into that?"
Coach Brown replied, "I think that it's an individual thing. I'm not a big stat guy when it comes to individual stats for defense because a guy might average three steals a game but if he's always gambling then he may be out of position a lot. The steals thing might look pretty stat-wise but not always be good for the team. For me personally, I just look at who gives our players and our team the most trouble when we go against that team. How tough do they defend LeBron, how tough do they defend Z, how tough do they defend whoever else it may be and how gritty they (opposing defenders) are. That's what I base it on."
I followed up with this question: "You've been on a few different coaching staffs during your career as an assistant and so forth. Do you think that the approach that you described is the approach that most coaches take?"
Brown answered, "I don't know. I know that Pop (Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich) does. He's not going to necessarily vote for a guy just because he averages a whole bunch of steals--and it's the same thing with blocks. I know that Pop looks at intangibles when voting for the All-Defensive Team."
So, if most coaches make their selections the way that Brown and Popovich do then their votes are not influenced by who writers think the great defenders are or who is leading the league in steals; their votes are determined based on which opposing players factor most heavily in their game planning and scheming regarding opposing defenses. Someone might say that certain coaches see some teams and players more often than they do others but all 30 coaches vote, so that kind of thing should cancel out. Plus, when scouting opposing teams the coaches see film of other players not just against their team but also against various other teams, so they are very familiar with the capabilities and limitations of the league's players at the offensive and defensive ends of the court.
***
During LeBron James' pregame standup (which was technically a sitdown as reporters gathered around a seated James at his locker), he said that the ankle that he sprained against Washington in the first round is not completely healed but that it is much improved thanks to the days off between series. James sounded congested and was coughing a little bit, which he dismissed as the effects of seasonal change. After the game, he seemed more under the weather than he had earlier. During his postgame press conference he draped a towel over his head and used the lower end of it to cover his mouth a few times when he coughed. Hughes and Gooden were seated on either side of him and when Gooden coughed James turned to him and asked if he (James) had made him sick. Gooden replied "No," and said that he had been sick for a few days.
***
Bill Cartwright, who won three championships as the starting center for the Chicago Bulls, is now an assistant coach with the Nets. Prior to the game, he worked with Josh Boone on various post moves. Before Boone arrived on the court, Cartwright showed that he can still make his awkward looking but very effective midrange jumper, nailing several in a row.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:04 AM
Utah Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#5 Utah (51-31) vs. #8 Golden State (42-40)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Golden State can win if…Baron Davis continues to play at an MVP level and if the Warriors' frenetic style frustrates and befuddles the Jazz as much as it rattled the Dallas Mavericks in round one.
Utah will win because…Carlos Boozer is a mobile and powerful big man who will score, rebound and draw fouls in the paint, disrupting Golden State's running game. Boozer has a really nice game now; he has a countermove that he immediately employs if the defense takes away his first move--actually, he has an array of first moves, accompanied by different countermoves. His recent TNT "Fundamentals" segment is must viewing for any upcoming post player. Deron Williams is strong and tough and will not back down from Davis.
Other things to consider: I'll be more honest than most people who are making predictions about this series: nothing that happens between these two teams would surprise me at this point. I thought that both squads would fight valiantly but be eliminated in the first round. If Golden State stays hot and runs the Jazz right out of the gym in four straight I would not be shocked; if Utah slows the game to a crawl, Baron Davis blows out a hamstring, Stephen Jackson gets suspended for something and the Jazz sweep the Warriors I would not be shocked, either. The Warriors changed their roster in midseason and Utah started hot, got cold and then overcame a 2-0 deficit to beat Houston in game seven on the road, so who knows what any of that means. So why am I picking Utah? I'm trying to play the percentages. Utah was the better team for a longer stretch of the season and thus has the homecourt advantage in the series; Utah has an excellent post player in Boozer; Davis is always one wrong move away from an injury that takes him out of the lineup; Jackson is always one wrong move away from ending up suspended or in court; I'm still not convinced that Golden State is a great team, as opposed to a team that simply matches up great with Dallas. Individually, none of those factors would necessarily be decisive but taken together all of the "X" factors seem to point in Utah's direction.
posted by David Friedman @ 1:59 AM
Boozer's Big Game Carries Jazz to Rare Game Seven Road Win
Carlos Boozer had 35 points, 14 rebounds and five assists as the Utah Jazz defeated the Houston Rockets in game seven of their first round series. While most of the media's attention has been focused on Golden State's stunning upset or the meek submission of defending champion Miami, Utah and Houston engaged in a very hard fought first round series. The home team won each game until the Jazz broke through in Houston on Saturday night. Mehmet Okur (16 points, 11 rebounds) made two big three pointers down the stretch and Deron Williams played a great all around game (20 points, 14 assists). The story for Houston was plenty Tracy McGrady (29 points, 13 assists, five rebounds, three blocked shots), a lot of Yao Ming (29 points, six rebounds) and not enough from everybody else; Shane Battier was solid (16 points on 4-7 three point shooting) but Rafer Alston shot just 3-11 for his 11 points and the rest of the Rockets were largely invisible for most of the game.
The Rockets got off to a slow start, as they did in each game of the series; they trailed at halftime in all seven games. McGrady made just one of his first five shots from the field, though his passing was outstanding throughout the game. He found his shooting touch in the second quarter, finishing the first half with 13 points (5-11 shooting) and nine assists, but Boozer's 17 points and seven rebounds helped Utah build a 53-43 halftime lead. Utah actually was up by as much as 16 in the second quarter.
As they did throughout the series, the Rockets made a run in the third quarter, getting as close as 61-58 before Utah extended the margin back to 71-60. Houston trailed 75-67 going into the fourth quarter. As the Rockets tried to claw back into the game, TNT's Steve Kerr noted two things: (1) Houston is not good at coming back because the Rockets struggle to score points, so most of the time the Rockets lose when they are behind after three quarters; (2) the Rockets rely more on Tracy McGrady to either score or create scoring opportunities for others than any other team in the league relies on one player. The first issue is of course related to the second; any one player, no matter how great he is, can be slowed down by good team defense. In this regard, McGrady's predicament is actually very similar to Kobe Bryant's. Both players are amazing scorers who can score on the block, on the drive and from three point range. As Hubie Brown says, distance is not a factor. Bryant and McGrady are also willing and able passers; they draw double-teams and are very effective at passing out of them. That means not only giving up the ball when you are trapped but making the right read and delivering a good enough pass that the recipient can either shoot immediately or else easily deliver a skip pass to the weak side. Of course, the problem for both Bryant and McGrady is that if their teammates don't make shots then their passes are in vain. That is why I disagree slightly with Kerr; the Lakers are more dependent on Bryant than the Rockets are on McGrady because McGrady has another All-Star (Yao) and some decent three point shooters (Battier, Alston, Luther Head). While that cast of players was not enough to get past Utah it is clearly superior to the motley crew that plays alongside Bryant. In any case, there is a difference between Bryant and McGrady's playoff exits on one hand and Dirk Nowitzki's on the other hand. Bryant and McGrady made the correct plays and put their teams in the best possible position to win, while Nowitzki seemed to get away from doing the things that he does best (part of that blame also goes to coaching and part of the credit goes to Golden State, particularly Coach Don Nelson, for forcing Nowitzki out of his comfort zone).
McGrady had eight points and two assists in the fourth quarter as the Rockets outscored the Jazz 32-28. That is a very productive quarter for Houston, which is typically a slow down kind of team, but it was not enough to overcome the eight point third quarter deficit. Houston tied the score at 80 with 8:38 left and even led by as many as five (88-83) after a McGrady runner, but the Rockets could not contain Boozer (10 fourth quarter points) or Okur down the stretch. The last eight and a half minutes of the game after Houston tied the score were some of the best back and forth, nip and tuck basketball that we have seen in this year's playoffs, filled with three point plays, three point shots and acrobatic drives. The dagger was Okur's three pointer with 1:16 remaining that put the Jazz up 99-95. After that, Utah closed out the game with good free throw shooting, though Houston could have extended the contest by committing a foul more quickly on the last possession instead of inexplicably letting several seconds run off of the clock.
The series began with Andrei Kirilenko literally crying about his lack of production and diminishing role for Utah but it ended with two Kirilenko free throws and some tears from McGrady, who stayed composed long enough to talk with TNT's Craig Sager but was unable to finish his postgame podium interview. As Charles Barkley said, it is not necessarily fair or right but McGrady will get a lot of blame for this loss even though he played very well and did all that he could do.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM
Strong Defense Powers Pistons to 95-69 Game One Win Over Bulls
Detroit jumped on Chicago early and then blew the game open with three straight three pointers in the fourth quarter, cruising to a 95-69 victory in game one of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Pick a statistical category and Detroit controlled it, from rebounds (46-38) to field goal percentage (.439 to .329) to turnovers (committing 15, forcing 21). Chauncey Billups set the tone in the first quarter, torching Ben Gordon for 12 points as Detroit took a 29-23 lead. Billups and Richard Hamilton each finished with 20 points. Luol Deng led Chicago with 18 points and eight rebounds. Ben Wallace had nine points on 4-5 shooting and tied Deng with eight rebounds and Kirk Hinrich scored 15 points on 6-7 shooting and dished out six assists but the Bulls could not overcome horrendous 3-30 shooting from their bench players (no, that is not a typo).
Chicago battled uphill for most of the first half, falling behind by as many as 16 points, but the Bulls were only down 10 at halftime. They got to within 60-52 in the first two minutes of the third quarter but then P.J. Brown picked up his third and fourth fouls and had to go to the bench. His replacement, rookie Tyrus Thomas, seemed more than a little out of his depth. Rasheed Wallace immediately scored on him in the post and Detroit pulled away to a 70-57 lead by the end of the third quarter.
Any thought that the Bulls might make a fourth quarter run was quickly ended when Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince each made a three pointer within a 1:21 stretch. That made the score 79-57 and turned the rest of the game into, as Marv Albert likes to say, "extensive garbage time."
Years ago, Danny Ainge noted that after you win a playoff game by blowing someone out you don't get to start the next game with a 20 point lead. Last year, Detroit cruised to two easy home wins against Cleveland and then fell down 3-2 before eventually prevailing in the seventh game. In game one of the 1985 NBA Finals, Boston beat the L.A. Lakers 148-114. The Lakers won the next game and won the series in six games. So, Detroit's margin of victory in game one is irrelevant; the important issue is whether or not Chicago can correct the mistakes that led to the loss. The Bulls stayed in contact for three quarters before Detroit's barrage of three pointers. Prior to that, a couple things stood out: (1) The Bulls looked jittery and a lot of their turnovers were, in tennis terms, unforced errors. Yes, Detroit played good defense but the Bulls were fumbling the ball in the open court and throwing wild, low percentage passes; (2) the Bulls were able to get into the paint almost at will, mostly by dribble penetration, but they missed a lot of layups or turned the ball over. Just by controlling the ball better and converting opportunities in the paint the Bulls could have made the score a lot closer. Starting in game two, look for the Bulls to be much more effective in exploiting scoring opportunities in the paint; if Detroit reacts to take that away, then look for the Bulls to start making open jump shots, like they did versus Miami. The Pistons seemed really determined to take away the jump shot from Chicago, even at the cost of leaving open driving lanes.
The bigger concern for the Bulls is how to deal with Billups and Hamilton. Neither player really hurt the Bulls during the regular season but both caused problems in game one and they could have scored more than 20 points apiece if Detroit had needed them to do so. The Bulls may have to change around some of their defensive schemes to make sure that Billups cannot just abuse Gordon one on one. On the other hand, if the Bulls clean up their ballhandling and avoid another 3-30 shooting effort from their bench then they probably can live with the defensive performance that they had; after all, Detroit shot just .439 for the game.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:00 AM
Cleveland Versus New Jersey Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#2 Cleveland (50-32) vs. #6 New Jersey (41-41)
Season series: Cleveland, 2-1
New Jersey can win if…the Nets get enough defensive stops to fuel their transition game, enabling Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson to thrive in the open court. At least two of those three must play very well in one of the games in Cleveland in order to grab homecourt advantage.
Cleveland will win because…LeBron James is the best player on either team and he will make the key plays down the stretch, which could mean scoring or could mean finding open teammates if he is trapped. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao should enjoy an advantage inside against the Nets' frontcourt.
Other things to consider: New Jersey is a dangerous team, even without versatile big man Nenad Krstic, who went down early in the season with a knee injury. The Nets went into Miami last year and took game one from the eventual champions, so New Jersey is not a team that can be taken lightly, despite their ordinary record (they have the worst won-loss mark of any first round series winner in two decades). It would not be surprising at all if New Jersey wrests homecourt away from Cleveland in game one or two only to lose it back when the series shifts East. This series figures to go at least six games, but Cleveland just looks at least a little better than New Jersey in several areas: the Cavs have the best individual player (James), won the season series between the teams, gained a lot of playoff experience last year (which puts them ahead of Toronto, New Jersey's first round opponent) and were the better overall team all season long.
posted by David Friedman @ 6:04 PM
Jefferson's Score and Steal Seal Nets Win
Richard Jefferson scored a layup with eight seconds left and made a game-saving steal as the New Jersey Nets beat the Toronto Raptors 98-97 to win their series four games to two. Jefferson finished with a game-high 24 points. Vince Carter added 21 points, while Jason Kidd had 18 points, 15 assists and eight rebounds; Kidd averaged a triple double for an entire series for the second time in his career, joining Wilt Chamberlain and Magic Johnson as the only players to ever average a triple double in more than one playoff series. This was Kidd's 11th postseason triple double, moving into second place on the career playoff triple double list (Magic Johnson had 30). Chris Bosh overcame a slow shooting start to score 23 points; he also had seven rebounds and a career-high nine assists. He had 13 points in the fourth quarter and his basket with :47 left that put the Raptors up one would have been the game-winner if not for Jefferson's heroics.
Toronto's top two point guards, T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon, were questionable before the game due to injuries but they both turned in very solid performances. Ford scored 19 points in 15 minutes, while Calderon had 14 points, six assists and four steals in 33 minutes. Ford scored 13 points on 6-7 shooting in the first half, helping the Raptors take a 46-43 halftime lead. Carter and Jefferson both struggled mightily from the field in the first half, shooting 3-10 and 2-7 respectively.
The Nets hit the Raptors with a 7-0 run early in the third quarter; Kidd started the run with a three pointer and capped it off by feeding Jefferson for a dunk. Kidd had seven points and seven assists in the third quarter and the Nets took a 75-68 lead going into the fourth quarter. Bostjan Nachbar's three pointer gave the Nets a 78-68 advantage after the first possession of the final period, but the Raptors were not rattled, cutting the lead to 80-79 on Calderon's jumper at the 8:41 mark. Carter's dunk with 6:55 remaining put the Nets up 87-83 but they did not make another field goal until Jefferson's last second shot. The Nets made Nine made free throws to stay in contact, setting up the dramatic finish. After Bosh's bank shot gave the Raptors a 97-96 lead, Carter and Bosh traded misses and the Nets called timeout with 12 seconds left. Usually, New Jersey puts the ball in Carter's hands in last shot situations but this time the Nets ran a misdirection play, feeding Kidd at the top and setting a screen for Jefferson, who took Kidd's pass and made a strong drive, spinning to the hoop and finishing over Bosh with his left hand. The Raptors called timeout and then inbounded the ball at halfcourt with eight seconds left. Calderon dribbled for a few seconds and then attempted a low pass to Bosh, which Jefferson intercepted. Bosh had sealed his defender and was open, but the passing angle was very difficult.
The Raptors showed that they are a team with a very promising future--but the future is now for the Nets and their veteran nucleus of Kidd, Carter and Jefferson. The defending champion Miami Heat have already been eliminated and there is no dominant team in the East so this is a golden opportunity for the Nets to make a run at the NBA Finals. Next up for New Jersey is a showdown with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. That series will start on Sunday.
posted by David Friedman @ 7:28 AM
San Antonio Versus Phoenix Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Phoenix (61-21) vs. #3 San Antonio (58-24)
Season series: San Antonio, 2-1
Phoenix can win if…Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa are able to penetrate into the paint, break down the Spurs defense and create scoring opportunities for themselves and their teammates.
San Antonio will win because…the Spurs are able to both stifle the Suns' running game and also to run right back at Phoenix with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs eschew many offensive rebound opportunities in order to get back on defense and force teams to shoot contested shots. They are very dedicated to this philosophy and are athletic enough to be able to do this against the Suns; most teams lack either the mindset or the personnel to consistently do this. The Suns repeatedly burned the Lakers with wide open three pointers in transition and lobs for uncontested dunks; the Spurs will eliminate most of those easy scores and force Phoenix to score in a half court set.
Other things to consider: Many people think that Phoenix is poised to win the title this year because Amare Stoudemire is back in the mix. Yes, Stoudemire did have a huge series against San Antonio two years ago--but Tim Duncan's numbers were also very good and the Spurs won easily en route to their third championship. It probably will not be quite so easy this time but the Spurs will get one of the first two games in Phoenix and eventually win the series in six games.
posted by David Friedman @ 5:18 AM
Chicago Versus Detroit Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Detroit (53-29) vs. #5 Chicago (49-33)
Season series: Chicago, 3-1
Detroit can win if…the backcourt duo of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton gets the best of Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich and if Detroit is able to score in the paint either off of pick and roll plays or postups by Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess or Chris Webber.
Chicago will win because…Ben Wallace is on a mission to prove that he was THE key component to Detroit's recent postseason success and he will have a monster series on the boards and defensively. Neither Chris Webber nor Flip Saunders have a history of distinguishing themselves much past the first round.
Other things to consider: Sometimes, regular season head to head games matter and sometimes they don't. I know that sounds like a cop out or an Almond Joy commercial ("Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't...") but it's true. Factors like injuries, trades or playing for the fourth time in five nights can all cloud the meaning of regular season games as harbingers of what will happen in a playoff series--but, as Golden State just showed, sometimes a team really does have another team's number, based on style and matchups. Chicago took three of the four regular season games against Detroit and the Pistons needed a big comeback in the other game to eke out a win. Yes, Chris Webber did not play in all of the games, but Chicago poses some real matchup problems for the Pistons. Also, there is no getting around the fact that Ben Wallace was arguably the most important player during the Pistons' two trips to the Finals; the four-time Defensive Player of the Year is not only no longer with Detroit but he will be playing against Detroit in this series. Chicago improved markedly this season and just swept the defending champions, while Detroit's record got worse and the Pistons basically sleepwalked against a near-comatose Orlando Magic team. Look for the Bulls to win one of the first two games in Detroit and to take the series in six games.
posted by David Friedman @ 3:30 AM
Catching Up With...Greg "Special K" Kelser
The May issue of
Basketball Times contains my article about Greg "Special K" Kelser, who starred alongside Magic Johnson on Michigan State's 1979 NCAA Championship team. Injuries shortened his NBA career but Kelser had 19 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in Michigan State's 75-64 championship game win over Larry Bird's Indiana State team. That game will always be remembered for the Magic-Bird showdown but the Spartans would not have won without Kelser's near triple-double. As Kelser told me, "When I look back on it, if you just briefly mention the game it's always going to be 'Earvin Magic Johnson versus Larry Bird' but if you get into discussion about the game then my name has to come up because I think that I played that significant of a factor in the outcome."
The Kelser article is not available online but if
Basketball Times is not sold in your area you can click on this link for subscription information:
Basketball TimesAlso, Kelser co-wrote a book last year titled
Gregory Kelser's Tales from Michigan State Basketball, which can be ordered
here.
posted by David Friedman @ 4:28 PM
Down Goes Dallas! Down Goes Dallas! Down Goes Dallas!
The Golden State Warriors completed the greatest upset in NBA playoff history with a 111-86 victory over the Dallas Mavericks, winning the series 4-2. Stephen Jackson set a Warriors' playoff record with seven three pointers (on just eight attempts) and scored a game-high 33 points. Baron Davis fought off a hamstring injury to add 20 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. All five Warriors' starters scored in double figures and two besides Davis had double doubles as the Warriors outrebounded the Mavericks 53-38; Matt Barnes had 16 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists, while Andris Biedrins had 12 points, 12 rebounds and three blocked shots. Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse each scored 20 points for Dallas but that was not nearly enough to make up for the complete disappearance of the likely 2007 MVP, Dirk Nowitzki, who shot 2-13 from the field and scored just eight points. Nowitzki did manage to get 10 rebounds, but this has to be one of the worst performances ever by a player of his caliber in an elimination game; there may have been others that were worse statistically--though I cannot think of one at the moment--but it is difficult to recall a game six in which a prospective MVP had no impact whatsoever and was neither injured nor in foul trouble.
The Warriors are just the third eighth seed to beat a number one seed--Denver stunned Seattle in 1994 and New York defeated Miami in 1999--but they are the first to do so in a seven game series and the first to do so in less than the maximum number of games; New York needed a last second Allan Houston jump shot to win 78-77 in the fifth game of a five game series, while Denver needed overtime to prevail 98-94 in the fifth game of a five game series. Golden State, on the other hand, beat Dallas senseless in the third quarter in game six and did a victory lap in the fourth quarter. Prior to this year's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks, every other team in NBA history that won at least 65 games also won the championship except for the 1972-73 Boston Celtics, who lost in the Eastern Conference Finals after John Havlicek injured his shoulder--and those Celtics went on to win two of the next three titles. Dallas suffered no injuries to key players but lost in the first round to a team that had to win on the last day of the regular season just to qualify for the playoffs. From a historical standpoint, nothing like this has ever happened in the NBA.
You'd never believe it based on the final score, but this game was close well past halftime. The Mavericks came out in a good flow, with Jason Terry opening the scoring with a three pointer on the first possession of the game. The Warriors led 19-15 when Davis left the game at the 5:10 mark in the first quarter after injuring his hamstring. He went to the locker room for some treatment and the score was tied at 29 when he checked back in with 9:46 left in the second quarter. Davis committed a turnover and Terry soon blew by him for a layup. Davis then made a jumper, missed a shot and committed an offensive foul. It hardly seemed like he was poised to do great things; in fact, it looked like Don Nelson needed to get Davis out of the game, both for Davis' good and for the sake of the team--but then, in the next four minutes, Davis made four straight shots, including three three pointers. He was making shots that have not been seen since Michael Jordan and Larry Bird played "horse" in the old McDonald's commercial. The Mavericks kept pace despite Davis' onslaught, trailing just 50-48 at halftime, but Davis had made it clear that he would be a factor the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, Nowitzki endured a nightmare first half, shooting 1-10 from the field and scoring just four points. Stackhouse shouldered the bulk of the scoring burden, pouring in 18 points. The teams traded baskets for the first few possessions of the third quarter before Jackson nailed consecutive three pointers to push the Warriors' lead to 62-54. Howard countered with a three pointer to make the score 62-57 at the 7:32 mark--and Dallas did not score again until Stackhouse's jump shot with 2:24 left in the third quarter. During that time, Golden State went on an 18-0 run that obliterated a season's worth of work by Dallas: Jackson made a free throw and two three pointers, followed by a Davis jumper, two Davis free throws, two Jackson free throws, a Davis free throw, two Biedrins free throws and a Barnes dunk. The last two scores symbolized Dallas' complete helplessness: the Mavericks apparently intentionally fouled Biedrins, a notoriously poor free throw shooter, because they simply could not stop Golden State from scoring. TNT's Steve Kerr noted that for a defensive minded team like Dallas to resort to "Hack a Biedrins" in the third quarter was basically a sign of surrender. Nelson took Biedrins out of the game, so on the next possession Dallas trapped Davis, an adjustment that worked in the latter stages of the Mavericks' game five victory--but he calmly fed Barnes, who delivered an emphatic dunk. If this were a boxing match, the referee would have called the fight right at that moment. Golden State outscored Dallas 36-15 in the third quarter, led 86-63 going into the fourth quarter and did not allow the Mavericks to get closer than 19 points the rest of the way.
Whether or not Golden State can sustain this level of play in the next round, the Warriors' accomplishment in this series will forever be remembered and images from this sixth game--Davis' off balance shots, Barnes' dunk, a great dunk by Jason Richardson in the fourth quarter--will take their place alongside Denver's Dikembe Mutombo cradling the ball in 1994 and New York's Allan Houston pumping his arm and sprinting the length of the court in 1999.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:56 AM
AK 47 Steps Up, Jazz Force a Game Seven Versus Rockets
Andrei Kirilenko emerged from his season-long hibernation to provide a spark at both ends of the court as the Utah Jazz defeated the Houston Rockets 94-82, forcing a seventh game. Kirilenko, who made his mark as a player who can stuff a box score in a variety of ways, finished with 14 points, five rebounds, four assists, three steals and five blocked shots. Carlos Boozer had another strong game--22 points, nine rebounds--and Mehmet Okur chipped in 19 points, making four of his seven three pointers. Tracy McGrady led the Rockets with 26 points and 10 rebounds, but shot just 8-23 from the field and had five turnovers. Yao Ming contributed 25 points but he committed eight turnovers and only had only six rebounds.
McGrady and Yao carried the Rockets early in the game, scoring 10 and six points respectively as the Rockets led 22-20 after the first quarter. The Jazz pulled ahead in the second quarter and led at halftime, as they have in each game so far. They extended their slender 43-40 advantage to 65-54 in the third quarter but the Rockets got the Jazz into the penalty and narrowed the margin by scoring from the free throw line, getting their last eight points of the quarter from the charity stripe and closing the gap to 68-62.
Shane Battier's three pointer with 8:15 left in the fourth quarter got Houston to within 75-74, but the Rockets were never able to take the lead. Utah closed the game with a 13-4 run in the last 3:38.
This series has gone strictly "by the book," with the home team winning each game. Houston and Utah are very evenly matched, so that is not surprising. Expect another hard fought, low scoring contest and another victory by the home team in game seven--which means that Tracy McGrady will finally make it to the second round of the playoffs. Look for him to carry the day in game seven, possibly with a big scoring game but definitely by taking over at a crucial moment, either by scoring or by racking up assists.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:27 AM
Suns Sprint Past Lakers, 119-110
The Phoenix Suns eliminated the L.A. Lakers from the playoffs with a 119-110 home victory on Wednesday night. Last year the Lakers took a 3-1 lead against the Suns before succumbing in seven games--but this year the Suns have Amare Stoudemire, who had 27 points and 16 rebounds; his inside presence was felt throughout the Suns' 4-1 series victory. Shawn Marion added 26 points and 10 rebounds. Steve Nash contributed 17 points and 10 assists, but shot just 5-15 from the field and committed seven turnovers. The Lakers countered with a two-pronged attack: Kobe Bryant scored 34 points but shot just 13-33 from the field; he shot well in the first half but faded down the stretch, which was the case in four of the five games. He also missed practice on Tuesday due to a back injury that he suffered in game four, but his mobility did not seem to be affected in this game. The Lakers' other main weapon was Lamar Odom, who scored a playoff career-high 33 points on 13-21 shooting, adding 10 rebounds. Odom showed a lot of heart and a lot of grit in this series, continuing to play despite injuries to his shoulder, elbow and knee--and there is no doubt that his physical pain pales in comparison to the emotional pain from the death of his infant son last summer. Many of the Lakers can rightly be accused of quitting or being soft--but not Odom.
Bryant and Nash are their teams' respective leaders but neither really displayed his "A" game (as Tiger Woods would put it). The difference, of course, is Nash has two other All-Stars to rely on, plus Sixth Man of the Year Leandro Barbosa (18 points), All-Defensive First Team selection Raja Bell and versatile reserve Boris Diaw. A dramatic demonstration of this difference happened in the second quarter. Lakers' Coach Phil Jackson took Bryant out of the game at the 7:56 mark of the second quarter with the Suns leading 41-34. Just 1:45 later, the Lakers trailed 49-34 and Jackson had to put Bryant back in the game; he promptly converted a three point play to pull the Lakers back within 12 and they maintained that distance the rest of the half, trailing 64-52 at the break. Bryant scored 18 points in the first half on 8-16 shooting. TNT's Craig Sager asked the Lakers coaching staff if they could afford to give Bryant any rest in the second half and they told him that apparently they could not; Bryant played all 24 minutes in the second half.
Odom did most of his damage in the third quarter, scoring 16 points while Bryant struggled to find his shooting stroke during the period. Bryant finally made a couple jumpers, one of which cut the Suns' lead to 87-85. That was as close as the Lakers would get, though, as the Suns scored the final four points of the quarter. The Suns began to pull away in the fourth quarter and Bryant's mounting frustration boiled over, leading to a technical foul. He complained on several occasions that he was fouled when the Suns stripped the ball away from him, so it was only a matter of time until he got the technical foul. Nash made the resulting free throw to put the Suns up 105-91 with 6:46 left, but the Lakers made one more run, capped by back to back Bryant three pointers that trimmed the margin to 111-106 with 3:00 to go. Marion hit a jumper and Stoudemire split a pair of free throws to make the score 114-106 but an Odom layup and Bryant jumper sandwiched around two Nash free throws kept the Lakers in striking distance, down 116-110 with :50 left. The game concluded with three Suns' free throws and two missed three pointers by the Lakers.
During the TNT telecast, Doug Collins touched on some subjects that have been recently discussed in this space. He called Bryant "the most criticized great player in the NBA." Collins also said that he thought that Bryant may have made this year's All-Defensive Team more on his reputation than on his play this year, while Shawn Marion missed out on making the team because the voting is based on position (which hurts Marion because there are several standout defensive forwards). Collins is certainly right about the amount of criticism that is directed at Bryant and I made the exact same point about Marion's "snub"--he finished 12th overall, but behind several top notch forwards. Collins is certainly entitled to his opinion about how much "reputation" factors into All-Defensive Team voting but I don't buy this idea from him any more than I buy it from fans. The All-Defensive Team is voted on by head coaches, not media members. When Golden State Coach Don Nelson directs Baron Davis to attack Steve Nash in the post or has his forwards take the ball straight at Dirk Nowitzki he certainly knows who the weak links defensively are on those squads; there is a truism around the NBA that if you want to know who is the weakest defender on a team just watch who Nelson runs an isolation play against in the first half court set of the game. I would assume that if Nelson can identify weak defensive players then he can also identify good ones and I'm pretty confident that the other 29 coaches can do this too. Bryant did not barely make the All-Defensive Team; he is on the First Team, receiving more votes than any other guard. Why exactly would coaches be swayed by "reputation"? As for Marion, despite all the media hype about his defense, the coaches have never voted him to the All-Defensive Team; while Marion does face stiff competition at that position he also is frequently talked up by the media as a top defender, so if the coaches are voting by "reputation" then why has he never made the team? It's not because of Phoenix' bad defensive "reputation," either, because Raja Bell is on the First Team alongside Bryant. This whole "reputation" thing is just meaningless until somebody actually talks to a representative number of coaches and finds out their thinking on the subject of All-Defensive Team voting.
As injuries hit the Lakers during the second half of the season it became apparent that the team could only win when Bryant scored at least 40 points while shooting a good to excellent percentage--which is quite a burden for any player to carry. In the five games against Phoenix, Bryant averaged 32.8 ppg on .462 field goal shooting, .357 three point shooting and .919 free throw shooting. His field goal percentage was virtually identical to his regular season rate, while his three point and free throw numbers improved in the playoffs (field goal percentages tend to go down in the postseason because of tougher competition and because teams zero in on one team for several games in a row). Bryant also averaged 5.2 rpg and 4.4 apg, meaning he averaged 1.2 ppg more and .5 rpg and 1.0 apg less than during the regular season. Keep in mind that he sprained his ankle in the game two loss, the only contest in which he scored less than 31 points. Bryant's best performance came in game three: 45 points, 15-26 shooting from the field, six rebounds and six assists. Not surprisingly, that is the only game the Lakers won. The normally perceptive J.A. Adande of the
L.A. Times wrote, "The Lakers' only victory in this series came when he made an effort to set up his teammates for shots in Game 3, rather than throw them the ball in desperation after getting caught in a double-team." That statement makes no sense because the reality is that the only game the Lakers won is the only game in which Bryant scored 40-plus points; in the next game he had nine assists (plus 31 points on more than acceptable 12-25 shooting) but the Lakers lost by 13--in other words, they needed him to get more than 40 points.
Adande offers this quote from Bryant on the current state of the Lakers: "I'll do whatever it takes to win. I've had to do a lot just to get us into the playoffs. I don't want to do that. I want to win championships. I don't want to be a one-man show, a team that goes onto the road, the opposition crowd wants to see me score 50 and lose. I'm not with that. I'm about winning. I want to win championships and win them now. So, they have some decisions to make" (maybe Bryant is listening too much to his critics, because the fact is that when he scored 50 points this season the Lakers went 7-3, so there were not that many instances of him scoring 50 and losing; the problem is that even he cannot score 50 points in enough games to push the Lakers to elite status).
The "they" that Bryant spoke of is, of course, the Lakers front office. Bryant had an extraordinary season in 2006-07, carrying an injured team into the playoffs; now the ball is in the hands of the Lakers front office and they need to make some exceptional moves of their own.
posted by David Friedman @ 6:31 AM
Finley's Fine Shooting Finishes Nuggets
Michael Finley scored 26 points and set a Spurs playoff record with eight three pointers as San Antonio beat Denver 93-78, winning their first round playoff series 4-1. Tim Duncan had 23 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and one blocked shot but the biggest number that you can attach to his name is .377: that is the Nuggets' shooting percentage in this game. The Spurs have always ranked at or near the top of the NBA in defensive field goal percentage since Duncan entered the league and this game provided a perfect example of why this is the case. Duncan only blocked one shot but he altered many others. Whenever a Denver player entered the paint he had to contend with Duncan. The Nuggets pose tough matchup problems for most teams because they have two players who often have to be double-teamed: Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. Yet the Spurs held both of them below their normal scoring averages and shooting percentages; Anthony scored 21 points on 8-20 shooting and had no assists, while Iverson scored 21 points on 6-22 shooting, adding eight assists. Bruce Bowen alternated between guarding Anthony and guarding Iverson but he had the freedom to drape himself over either player like flypaper because if they got past him then they had to finish over Duncan in the paint.
Denver showed good fighting spirit in this game, though. The Spurs jumped out to a 37-27 lead but the Nuggets battled back and were in front 48-44 at halftime. The Spurs did not score in the last 3:08 of the half and the Nuggets went on a 10-0 run, capped by two Steve Blake three pointers in the last :31. However, the Spurs scored the first seven points of the third quarter to recapture the lead and they never trailed again. Finley made three of his three pointers in the fourth quarter as the Spurs outscored the Nuggets 30-19 in the final stanza.
The first round features eight playoff series, so it is obvious that not all of them will receive equal attention. Chicago's sweep of defending champion Miami certainly opened some eyes, any series involving Phoenix' Steve Nash and the Lakers' Kobe Bryant will always draw interest and Golden State-Dallas has captured the imagination of a lot of people--but the Spurs just quietly and efficiently took four straight games from a team that was peaking at the end of the season and has two potent scorers plus the Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs are not worried about flying under the radar now because they plan to still be playing a month or so from now in the NBA Finals.
posted by David Friedman @ 4:31 AM
Nowitzki Saves Mavericks in Closing Minutes
Dirk Nowitzki scored 12 points in the final 3:06 and came up with a key blocked shot as the Dallas Mavericks overcame a 112-103 deficit to beat the Golden State Warriors 118-112. Nowitzki, whose name apparently was changed to either "Much maligned" or "Soft" in recent days (if you listen to the talking heads), led both teams with 30 points and 12 rebounds. Baron Davis had 27 points and nine assists for the Warriors before fouling out on a questionable looking call with 21 seconds left and Dallas up just one point.
Dallas took a 31-15 lead in the first 7:30 of the game and at that point it hardly seemed like the Mavericks would need any late game heroics to extend this series to a sixth game. Golden State cut that margin to 36-28 near the end of the first quarter but then the Mavericks built a 53-32 lead just past the halfway mark of the second quarter. As TNT's Charles Barkley so aptly put it, though, the Warriors will not go away--you have to kill them. By halftime, Dallas was up just 62-55. Jerry Stackhouse received a technical foul as the teams walked off of the court, so Stephen Jackson shot a free throw before the start of the third quarter, bringing Golden State to within 62-56. The Warriors tied the game at 67 on a Jason Richardson three pointer and the teams battled back and forth after that, with Dallas taking a 90-87 lead into the fourth quarter.
The game was nip and tuck for the first few minutes of the fourth quarter but then the Warriors went on an 11-1 run--including two three pointers and an alley oop that Davis threw from near half court to Jason Richardson--to take a 112-103 lead with just 3:21 remaining. Dallas teetered on the brink of elimination--and then Nowitzki took over, draining a three pointer, blocking Matt Barnes' layup and then nailing another three pointer. Devin Harris' layup pulled the Mavericks to within one, 112-111, and then Nowitzki put Dallas ahead for good by making two free throws with :48 left. Golden State's last points came on a Davis three pointer at the 3:21 mark.
Golden State definitely looked impressive in their two home games in this series--and if the Warriors intend to win this series they better come up with that kind of a performance on Thursday in Game Six, because--as I
wrote last year--Game Seven on the road in the NBA is death. As regular readers of this site know, I like to dissect Xs and Os and the strategic aspects of basketball but I think that in this series some of those things have been overdone, at least from Dallas' side. The Mavericks posted one of the best regular season records in NBA history but for most of this series they have been changing their lineup and trying to outthink the Warriors--but you can't outthink a crazy man. Don Nelson is the crazy man in this series--crazy like a fox. He knows that his team is not as good as Dallas, which is why he keeps saying that--but he also knows that by running and gunning on offense and triple-teaming Nowitzki on defense and just creating a wild and crazy shootout that there is a chance that his team will be standing at the end; certainly, the Warriors would have no chance to win by playing in a more conventional way.
The Mavericks should start looking at this series the same way that the Warriors do, namely that Dallas has the better team: the Mavericks have the likely MVP, a young All-Star in Josh Howard, several other talented players (Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris) and a deeper bench. If Golden State wants to run, Dallas should not be afraid to run with them. The Mavericks did this in the first half and were blowing the Warriors' doors off. I don't believe that the Warriors can rely on a short rotation, run and gun for the entire game and stay with a deeper, more talented team. The Mavericks need to stop being afraid of what Golden State is doing and simply push the ball right back at them, letting their superior talent and depth carry the day. Dallas is not a slow it down, post up team, so when the Mavericks try to do that and miss the Warriors get the ball, run down court and score in about five seconds. That quiets Dallas' crowd or fires up Golden State's crowd, depending on where the game is being played. Slowing the game down ironically works in Golden State's favor, because it allows them to drape quick bodies on Nowitzki and dictate to Dallas who gets open shots. On the other hand, when the Mavericks run then Nowitzki gets open jumpers in transition, the kind of shots that he loves to take. Just look at the scores of the five games so far: the two games that Dallas has won are the only two games in which they scored over 100 points. This series is not about Avery Johnson "calling out" Nowitzki or about a bunch of Xs and Os. If I were coaching Dallas, this is what I'd write on the chalkboard: Play loose, play hard, rebound and run, run, run. Dallas is not going to beat Golden State in a slowdown game because Nelson will not, under any circumstances, allow the Warriors to slow the tempo down; so Avery Johnson will simply have to bite the bullet and beat the Warriors at their own game.
posted by David Friedman @ 7:45 AM
Raptors Not Extinct--Yet
The Toronto Raptors built a 20 point first quarter lead and held on for dear life to win 98-96 and stave off elimination by the New Jersey Nets; the Nets still lead the series 3-2 and can advance to a second round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers by winning at home in game six. Jose Calderon led the Raptors with a career-high 25 points and eight assists before spraining his ankle with less than 30 seconds left; he played 38 minutes after starting point guard T.J. Ford injured his neck in a collision with Vince Carter. Andrea Bargnani and Anthony Parker each had 18 points, while foul trouble limited Chris Bosh to 11 points and eight rebounds. Vince Carter played much better than he has in his previous games as a visitor at the Air Canada Centre, producing 30 points on 10-22 shooting. Richard Jefferson added 23 points on 9-14 shooting and Jason Kidd just missed yet another triple double (11 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds), but New Jersey's perimeter trio received little help from the rest of the roster.
Toronto blasted out to a 33-13 lead by the end of the first quarter, with the only down note being Ford's injury. The Nets were only able to shave three points off of that margin by halftime, trailing 59-42. Toronto maintained a double digit lead for most of the third quarter but New Jersey went on a 10-0 run early in the fourth quarter to get within 85-81. Bosh then sank two free throws but the Nets countered with a pair of Jefferson jumpers to make the score 87-85 Toronto. The Raptors kept their cool and pushed the lead back to 95-88 at the 3:16 mark but the Nets had one run left, a 6-0 streak that got them to 95-94 after Carter's three pointer with 27 seconds remaining. Bosh made three of his four free throws in the closing seconds but the victory was not assured until Bostjan Nachbar's three pointer failed to connect as time ran out.
Ford, whose career was nearly ended by a previous neck injury, reportedly had tingling in his arms and was taken to a hospital for further tests. He returned to the arena in street clothes. Winning game six on the road on Friday will be a supreme challenge for the young Raptors, particularly if Ford is unable to play.
posted by David Friedman @ 5:04 AM
NBA Coaches Select Kobe Bryant as League's Best Defensive Guard
Not too long ago, some guy who apparently spends more time admiring my mustache than he does watching basketball decided that Kobe Bryant is an overrated defensive player who is living off of his past reputation (as I discussed in several late March posts, including
this one). On Monday, the NBA announced its 2006-07 All-Defensive Team, as selected by the league's 30 head coaches (who cannot vote for their own players) and, lo and behold, Bryant made the First Team for the second year in a row and fifth time in his career (he also has earned two Second Team selections). This will not even slow down Bryant's detractors, who already are out in full force mocking the coaches' knowledge and questioning not only Bryant's selection but Shawn Marion's omission; after all, the writers and broadcasters placed Marion fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, so they have a major discrepancy to explain: how can Marion be a viable Defensive Player of the Year candidate but not rank among the league's 10 best defenders on the coaches' ballot? This is when we start to hear about bias among the coaches--members of the media, of course, are
never biased--but my favorite complaint is that the coaches either are not following what happens in the league or don't understand what they are watching. Yeah, right--guys whose livelihood depends on making up game plans and deciphering which players can be attacked defensively know less about the NBA and are more biased in voting about it than writers and broadcasters. Sure, that makes sense.
The top three members of the All-Defensive Team this year are not controversial: Bruce Bowen (19 First Team votes, 4 Second Team votes, 42 points), Tim Duncan (16, 4, 36) and Marcus Camby (11, 12, 34). Camby won the Defensive Player of the Year Award and tied with Bowen by appearing on 23 of 29 All-Defensive Team ballots, so the media and coaches agree in this instance. Bryant finished first among guards (14, 4, 32) and Raja Bell rounded out the First Team (7, 11, 25). The Second Team consists of Ben Wallace (12, 9, 33), Jason Kidd (8, 7, 23), Tayshaun Prince (7, 7, 21), Kevin Garnett (8, 4, 20) and Kirk Hinrich (7, 4, 18).
Looking at those numbers, the coaches indicated loudly and clearly that they consider Bryant to be the best defensive guard in the NBA--he got significantly more First Team votes than any other backcourt player. Why do coaches have such a high opinion of Bryant as a defensive player? One obvious factor is that Bryant guards the top perimeter threat on opposing teams, particularly in crunch time. Think about this: the Lakers' team defense is much worse this year than it was last year and Bryant still cruised to a position on the First Team. That tells you that coaches recognize that the Lakers' defensive slide this year stems not from Bryant but from other players--namely, the point guard and the center, as I have said repeatedly throughout the season. The oft-cited instances of Bryant being "burned" this season were in fact examples of bad pick and roll defense by his team. For instance, anyone who watched Bryant versus Dwyane Wade (when Wade was healthy, by the way) knows that Wade rarely, if ever, beat Bryant one on one (he also rarely guarded Bryant, deferring to Jason Kapono and others for the most part); Wade scored in transition and on pick and roll plays that were poorly handled by the Lakers' big men.
As for the Marion "snub," Marion received 10 votes, including five for the First Team, and his 15 points just missed the cut for the Second Team (he finished 12th, two points behind Shane Battier and three points behind Kirk Hinrich, the last member of the Second Team). So, Marion did in fact receive significant support, just not as much as the other forwards--and you can make a good case that he is not a better defender than Bowen, Duncan, Prince or Garnett. Bowen guards point guards, shooting guards and forwards; Duncan completely shuts down the paint; Prince, like Bowen, guards multiple positions; Garnett is a beast on the defensive backboards and a long armed defensive presence, though I have always felt that he should block more shots than he does. Marion is clearly a good defender or he would not have finished 12th in the coaches' voting but there are legitimate reasons to select those four forwards ahead of him, namely their versatility and/or paint dominance. That is not "hating" Marion or "snubbing" him. Note that Bell got 18 total votes, nearly twice as many as Marion, so there is hardly an anti-Suns bias at work here.
I know that I cannot "win" a debate about the All-Defensive Team, because those who downgrade Bryant as a defender and/or insist that Marion is the league's best defensive player are not interested in the truth; they are interested in mustaches or promoting their favorite player or who knows what else. Even though I can't "win," 20 Second Timeout readers have been "winning" all year by gaining an understanding of what is really happening on the court, as opposed to what some people want you to believe is happening; there is always an "Awful Basket" or a "False Bucket" or some such site for that. Here's a novel idea for some big budget media organization: instead of publishing articles about how Marion was "snubbed" or Bryant is not worthy, send a reporter out to interview some head coaches and find out who they voted for and why. Maybe the coaches will decline to comment, not wanting any distractions while the playoffs are going on or not wanting to irritate players for whom they did not vote, but I'd rather hear one coach explain his vote than 10 "experts" saying that coaches don't know anything about basketball.
posted by David Friedman @ 8:33 AM
Carmelo Anthony's Least Favorite Playoff Numbers: 1 and 4
Each year around this time we hear that Carmelo Anthony's Denver Nuggets are a "dangerous" team that "no one wants to play"--and then they win one game, sometimes on the road against a higher seeded opponent, before losing four and getting eliminated. Denver is one loss in San Antonio away from doing this for the fourth year in a row. San Antonio trailed by as many as 10 points in Monday's game four but outscored Denver 29-16 in the fourth quarter to win 96-89 and take a 3-1 series lead. Right after Denver beat the Spurs in San Antonio in game one, some "experts" predicted that the Nuggets were for real this time--and I
wrote that the Spurs would win the series in less than seven games.Tim Duncan led the Spurs with 22 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. The Elias Sports Bureau combed through the archives and discovered that this was the 20th playoff game in which Duncan led or tied for the team lead in all three categories, one shy of the NBA record held by Larry Bird. Robert Horry had just six points and six rebounds but added yet another chapter to his
War and Peace length book of playoff heroics by draining a three pointer with :30 left that put the Spurs up 93-89. Can you say, "Good night, thank you for coming and don't forget the speakers"? (just checking to see if there are any Cheech and Chong fans here...) Anthony actually had a reasonably productive game: 29 points (11-18 shooting) and six rebounds, though he did have an unsightly 6/3 turnover to assist ratio. He has played better, by far, in this year's playoffs than in his three previous postseasons, when he averaged 18.6 ppg on .362 shooting. Allen Iverson had 22 points and seven assists but shot just 9-25 from the field and only went to the free throw line five times.
The Nuggets probably have the best mix of players that they have had since Anthony entered the NBA; next year, when Iverson is on board for a full season and Anthony presumably avoids being suspended, they may in fact really turn out to be dangerous--but their 2007 postseason seems destined to end like the previous three did: 1 and 4 and out the door.
posted by David Friedman @ 5:59 AM
The Value of Homecourt Advantage
The Houston-Utah series is shaping up as a perfect example of the value of homecourt advantage--which is good news for the Rockets, who claimed a 3-2 lead with a 96-92 home win on Monday. Tracy McGrady, who had 26 points and a career-high 16 assists, can advance to the second round for the first time in his career if he can lead the Rockets to a road win in game six or a home win in game seven. Yao Ming shot just 6-18 from the field but he scored six of Houston's last seven points, finishing with 21 points and 15 rebounds. Carlos Boozer had another strong game for the Jazz with 26 points, eight rebounds, four assists and three steals.
Things looked bleak for Houston when McGrady left the game in the second quarter due to a hip pointer and the Rockets fell behind by 10 while he received treatment in the locker room. He missed less than two minutes before returning to action and the Rockets rallied to trail by just one, 44-43, at halftime. Utah extended that lead to 72-68 by the end of the third quarter--despite 11 points in the period by McGrady--but the fourth quarter belonged to Yao (nine points) and McGrady (six points), who combined to score 15 of Houston's 28 points.
While it is true that great teams can win at home or on the road, homecourt advantage is a very significant thing to have in a playoff series, particularly one that features two pretty evenly matched teams. There is an old NFL Films clip with Bill Parcells in which he exhorts his players on the bench by saying, "This is why you lift all those $%$&*# weights." In other words, the work that you do in the weight room, in practice and during the regular season prepares you to win in the playoffs. Well, this game showed why "meaningless" games in January are in fact meaningful. Houston finished one win ahead of Utah--one game out of 82. Remember when Utah lost to Seattle on January 12? You probably don't, of course, but if the Jazz had won that game then they would have had the same record as Houston and would have earned homecourt advantage based on their 3-1 regular season record versus the Rockets. In other words, that "meaningless" loss could end up costing Utah this series.
The Elias Sports Bureau seems to be working overtime in the playoffs; they say that McGrady and Yao are the first teammates to each have a 20-15 performance in the same playoff game since Charles Barkley (30 points, 20 rebounds) and Kevin Johnson (21 points, 16 assists) accomplished this for Phoenix at San Antonio on April 28, 1996.
posted by David Friedman @ 4:53 AM
Cavs Sweep Wizards, Await New Jersey-Toronto Winner
Cleveland beat Washington 97-90 on Monday night, completing a sweep of the game but undermanned Wizards. LeBron James had 31 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists. He shot just 2-10 from the field in the first half but rallied to connect on six of his 12 second half shots. Zydrunas Ilgauskas added 20 points and 19 rebounds, noting with a smile after the game that if he had known his stats he would have tried to get one more rebound to reach 20-20 status. Larry Hughes contributed 19 points, four rebounds and three assists, including some key fourth quarter field goals as Cleveland held off a late Wizards rally. Antawn Jamison, the only big gun left for the Wizards after All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler were felled by injuries, scored 32 points.
I was less than impressed by Detroit's sweep of Orlando since the Pistons allowed the Magic to stay close for the better part of the series, so it must be said that the Cavaliers hardly looked like world beaters in these four games. Still, Cleveland had never swept a playoff series in franchise history, so this accomplishment is not without significance. The Pistons are a number one seed with an extensive playoff pedigree, so they are expected to easily dispatch an eighth seed; postseason success is a much newer phenomenon for James' Cavaliers.
After the game, LeBron James said, "Last year, going into the playoffs, it was all about making the playoffs. I hadn't been there in my NBA career, and Z hadn't been there since his rookie season, so that was our main focus: 'Let's make the playoffs, let's make the playoffs.' We've got bigger and better things now. It's about winning a championship, and we're one step closer."
The Wizards led by as many as nine points, but watching the game the outcome seemed almost inevitable. Even Washington Coach Eddie Jordan seemed to understand this; he used his bench extensively for the first time in the series, either to give his younger players postseason experience or to get a head start on the player evaluation process for next season. The Cavaliers got the stops they needed to get down the stretch, outscoring the Wizards 23-13 in the last 6:04 of the game.
The Elias Sports Bureau unearthed a couple interesting statistical nuggets pertaining to this game:
1) No player has reached the point, rebound and assist levels that James did in a series-clinching game since Scottie Pippen produced 32 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists versus the Lakers in game five of the 1991 Finals as the Chicago Bulls won their first title; that tells us something not only about James but also about Pippen's value.
2) Jamison's 32 ppg average in this series is the second highest ever by a player whose team got swept in a seven game series; George Gervin racked up 32.3 ppg as his Spurs lost to the Lakers in the 1982 Western Conference Finals.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:57 AM
