20 Second Timeout

Notes and Thoughts About the Second Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Sunday featured the second quadrupleheader of the the 2025 NBA playoffs. My notes about the first quadrupleheader can be found here. 

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Game One: Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Memphis Grizzlies 80

Wait, the Thunder just had another fast break dunk...and another three pointer in transition. This game was the NBA version of "That escalated quickly." Memphis took a 4-0 lead, but the Thunder deluge soon hit: Oklahoma City led 33-20 at the end of the first quarter, and then knocked out the Grizzlies with a 20-0 run in a little over four minutes during the second quarter to push the lead to 55-22. By that point, the only questions were how big the final margin would be and how few points the Grizzlies would score.

The Grizzlies' lowest point total during the regular season was 99, and they would have needed a full extra quarter to reach that number versus the Thunder in game one. The 51 point gap is the fifth largest victory margin in NBA playoff history, and the largest game one win in NBA playoff history. An interesting footnote is that none of the four teams with larger single game playoff victory margins--the 2009 Nuggets (58), the 1956 Lakers (58), the 1973 Lakers (56), and the 2015 Bulls (54)--won an NBA title that season.

Most of the numbers from this game are ridiculously lopsided, but particularly noteworthy are the Thunder's 27-5 advantage in fast break points and the Thunder's 17-6 lead in three point field goals made. Every Thunder starter scored in double figures, and reserve Aaron Wiggins had a team-high 21 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA scoring champion, only played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Ja Morant and Marvin Bagley III were the only Grizzlies who scored in double figures (17 points each).

While it is true that the Grizzlies have a good record for an eighth seed (48-34), the Thunder defeated the Grizzlies 4-0 in the regular season, with victory margins of 24, 13, 17, and 21. Therefore, a Thunder blowout win in game one is not surprising. 

This is a good time to remember a classic quote from Danny Ainge during his playing career; after a blowout, Ainge correctly noted that the NBA is not the Tour de France: in the NBA, the next game starts 0-0, not with one team leading by the victory margin from the previous game. The Thunder are the much superior team, but one blowout does not mean that the next game will be a blowout or even that the series will be a sweep, although I picked the Thunder to sweep the Grizzlies.

Game Two: Boston Celtics 103, Orlando Magic 86

The Magic led 49-48 at halftime. Their bump and run perimeter defense frustrated and limited Boston's potent offense, but the Magic did not sustain the energy necessary to play that level of defense for a full 48 minutes. A bigger issue for the Magic is that their anemic offense could not generate enough points to remain competitive even though their defense held the Celtics to 13 points below their regular season scoring average. The gritty Magic will fight hard during this series and may even grind out one win, but their team is too limited to beat the Celtics four times in seven games

The Celtics won despite getting pedestrian scoring from their two best players. Jayson Tatum finished with just 17 points on 8-22 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds plus four assists. Jaylen Brown added 16 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Derrick White more than picked up the slack with a team-high 30 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from beyond the arc. Payton Pritchard contributed 19 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in 25 minutes off of the bench.

Paolo Banchero scored a game-high 36 points on 14-27 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for four assists, but Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-24 field goal shooting) was the only other Orlando player who scored more than seven points. The Magic committed 15 turnovers and shot just 34-81 (.420) from the field. To have any chance, the Magic need to protect the ball better, and they need to push the pace in transition after defensive stops to take some pressure off of their limited half court offense.

Game Three: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Miami Heat 100

The Cavaliers led 31-24 after the first 12 minutes, and--much like Orlando versus Boston--the Heat don't have enough offensive firepower to be competitive in this matchup. The Cavaliers were ahead 62-54 at halftime, and after the Heat played the Cavaliers even in the third quarter (25-25) the Cavaliers pulled away by winning the fourth quarter, 34-21. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome was Cleveland's fourth quarter star, pouring in 16 points on 6-7 field goal shooting. He finished the game with 28 points, just two short of Donovan Mitchell's game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Mitchell tied Michael Jordan's NBA record by scoring at least 30 points in game one for the seventh consecutive series (Jordan had two separate such streaks of seven series). Mitchell's fellow All-Star backcourt partner Darius Garland added 27 points on 10-17 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high five assists. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 24 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high nine rebounds. Tyler Herro scored 21 points on 7-18 field goal shooting.

The Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat 42-38, with Jarrett Allen (11 rebounds) leading the way. The Cavaliers were much more efficient offensively, shooting 45-88 (.511) from the field and committing just seven turnovers while the Heat shot 39-80 (.488) from the field and committed 14 turnovers. The Cavaliers narrowly won points in the paint (48-44) but shot 18-43 (.419) from three point range while holding the Heat to 13-31 (.419) shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat did not shoot terribly, but the Cavaliers took advantage of their "extra" possessions.

The Heat have more playoff experience--including several players who have played in the NBA Finals and one player who has won a championship (Andrew Wiggins)--but the Cavaliers have too much depth, size, and talent.

Game Four: Golden State Warriors 95, Houston Rockets 85

This game was the nightmare scenario for the Rockets in this matchup: despite holding the Warriors to 95 points (nearly 19 points below their season average) on .474 field goal shooting, they just could not generate enough offense to win. The death knell for the Rockets was when they scored 13 second quarter points on 6-18 (.333) field goal shooting; the Rockets outscored the Warriors by six points in the other three quarters but just could not overcome falling behind by as many as 23 points. The Rockets got to within three points in the fourth quarter but, as is often the case, the team that spends most of the game coming back does not have enough juice to close out the game.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, including 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the decisive second quarter. Jimmy Butler had an excellent all-around game with 25 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists. Brandin Podziemski chipped in 14 points and five assists. Draymond Green had his customary triple single (four points, six rebounds, three assists) as the best player on the injury-riddled 2019-20 Warriors team that went 15-50 continues to ride the coattails of his star teammates; yes, Green plays good defense and sets good screens, but let's not get twisted the difference between being two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant or 2022 NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry or two-time best player on an NBA Finals team Jimmy Butler with being a valuable supporting cast member. Green is not a dominant rebounder and one on one defender like Dennis Rodman, nor is he a defensive stopper like Michael Cooper: he is a very good complementary player around star players, but if he played for a team other than the Warriors no one would know anything about him other than he has a bad temper and a big mouth.

Alperun Sengun led the Rockets with 26 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, but he needs a lot more help from Houston's version of the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight": Dillon Brooks (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting), Fred VanVleet (10 points on 4-15 field goal shooting), and Jalen Green (seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting) had "He with us" shooting performances, to borrow a Jalen Rose line (meaning that every time they shot and missed, the Warriors probably felt like saying, "He with us" because their poor shooting made them honorary Warriors).

The main bright spot for the Rockets is that they bludgeoned the Warriors on the glass, 52-36. Steven Adams had a game-high 12 rebounds in just 19 minutes, and he was the only Rocket with a positive plus/minus number (+4). The rebounding advantage is sustainable, so if the Rockets cut down on their turnovers (they had 16, compared to just 11 by the Warriors) and figure out how to make enough shots to score more than 100 points then they can still win this series.

Another factor to keep in mind is that Golden State's two best players are 37 years old (Curry) and 35 years old (Butler). Curry had a tendency to wear down during physical playoff series even when he was younger, and Butler is injury-prone, so if the Rockets keep up their physical play then that could pay dividends in a long series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 PM

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Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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2024-25 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the fifth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2025 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Chicago, Golden State, and Memphis to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, and 3-1 in 2025.

Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2024-2025 NBA season. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic season with minimal fanfare, setting the record for point differential (12.87 ppg) by surpassing a mark held for more than 50 years by one of the most legendary teams in pro basketball history: the 1971-72 Wilt Chamberlain-Jerry West L.A. Lakers went 69-13 with a point differential of 12.28 ppg en route to capturing the NBA title. Those Lakers also held the single season wins record until the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls went 72-10 in 1995-96; the Bulls fell just short of posting back to back 70 win seasons, going 69-13 in 1996-97. The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors now hold the single season wins record (73-9), but the Warriors squandered a 3-1 lead and lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, thus removing themselves from the greatest team of all-time conversation. The Thunder's league-best 68-14 record is tied for sixth-seventh all-time with the 1972-73 Boston Celtics; the 1973 Celtics and the 2016 Warriors are the only teams to not capture the NBA championship after winning at least 68 regular season games--and that is the lofty standard by which the 2025 Thunder will be judged: if they win a championship then they will rank among the greatest single season teams of all-time, but if they don't win a championship then their season will be relegated to a historical footnote.

Before the season, I picked the Thunder as the second best team in the Western Conference. I expressed skepticism about their championship credentials because they tanked to fill out their roster around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and tanking does not work, but despite the way part of this roster was built it is difficult to find a weakness with this team: the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage, first in steals, first in fewest turnovers committed, first in turnovers forced, second in blocked shots, third in points allowed, and fourth in points scored. One could nitpick that they "only" ranked 11th in rebounding, but the only legitimate reason to doubt their ability to win the 2025 NBA championship is that the Thunder have not advanced past the second round since the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook squad reached the 2016 Western Conference Finals. Barring injuries, the main question about the Thunder is if their lack of playoff experience will make them vulnerable against veteran playoff teams.

Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault won the 2024 NBA Coach of the Year award and one might think that he would be a lock to capture that honor this season, but no one has ever been Coach of the Year in back to back seasons; the voters like to share the wealth, so it would appear that the two leading candidates are Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson and Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff.

The Cleveland Cavaliers fired Bickerstaff despite advancing to the second round last season, and the Pistons promptly hired Bickerstaff to coach a team that had won 17 games and 14 games in the previous two seasons. The Cavaliers replaced Bickerstaff with Atkinson, who reached the playoffs once while coaching Brooklyn from 2016-20. It was not obvious why or how Atkinson would be an upgrade over Bickerstaff, but in retrospect it is clear that Atkinson connected very well with Cleveland's best player, Donovan Mitchell, and that consequently Mitchell bought into the idea of less is more in terms of playing time and field goal attempts. As a result, the Cavaliers started the season 15-0 and had the league's best record most of the way before finishing the season 8-7, which allowed the Thunder to pass them in the standings to gain the number one overall seed for the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers improved from 48 wins to 64 wins without making major personnel changes, and a 16 win increase is remarkable for a team that was already very good.

Bickerstaff may not have been the right coach to lift Cleveland from solid playoff team to the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but he is a very good coach, and he proved that again by guiding the Pistons to a 44-38 record, a 30 game improvement from last season that elevated the Pistons from the Draft Lottery to their first playoff appearance since 2019. It has taken the Pistons the better part of a decade to recover from Joe Dumars' bizarre fascination with Rodney Stuckey, but Bickerstaff authored a significant one year turnaround that no one predicted. The Pistons improved from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.

A reigning NBA champion that wins 61 games does not usually fly underneath the radar, but the Boston Celtics nearly matched last season's win total (64) without getting as much attention as a 60 win team usually gets. The Celtics finished second in the Eastern Conference and third overall, and they have a sustained, proven track record for making deep playoff runs: the Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24) in the past eight years, and in 2024 they won their first NBA title since defeating the L.A. Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. During the 2024-25 regular season, the Celtics were just a little behind the Thunder and the Cavaliers, but the Celtics will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Many media outlets love to talk about the L.A. Lakers regardless of whether the Lakers are contenders or pretenders; for the better part of the past five years, the Lakers have been pretenders, but this season they earned a top six seed for the first time since winning the "bubble title" in 2020. The Lakers were 28-19 when they stunned the NBA by acquiring Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Anthony Davis, and there were good reasons to believe that they were worse than their early season record. The Lakers went 22-13 after the trade, and claimed the third seed in the Western Conference on tiebreakers after finishing in a three way tie with the Denver Nuggets and the L.A. Clippers. We shall soon see if the Lakers are a legitimate third seed, or if they are a fifth seed in disguise; in the tightly bunched Western Conference they were two games behind second place Houston but just four games ahead of the cut line for the NBA Play-In Tournament. The Lakers' main strength is that they have three top notch scorers/playmakers with all-time greats LeBron James and Luka Doncic plus Austin Reaves. The Lakers are capable of scoring a lot of points, but it is not clear if they have the necessary size and defensive tenacity in the paint to win a playoff series, let alone win multiple playoff series.

This season's MVP race has been fascinating. It seems that the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to win his first MVP award, but the Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic--the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024--averaged a triple double (career-high 29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, career-high 10.2 apg), becoming the first center and third player to accomplish that feat. Jokic ranked second in the league in assists, third in scoring, and third in rebounding. Wilt Chamberlain is the only other player to rank in the top three in scoring average, rebounding average, and assists average in the same season when he ranked fourth, first, and second respectively in 1967-68 (at that time, league leaders were determined by totals, not averages, and that season Chamberlain ranked first in total rebounds, first in total assists, and third in total points). Chamberlain was the landslide MVP winner in 1967-68.

The only players other than Jokic who averaged a triple double in a season are Oscar Robertson (30.8 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 11.4 apg in 1962-63, when he finished third in MVP voting behind Bill Russell and Elgin Baylor), and Jokic's current teammate Russell Westbrook, who averaged a triple double in a season four times (2017-19, 2021). Robertson averaged a cumulative triple double during the first five seasons of his career, finishing fifth, third, third, first, and second in MVP voting during those seasons. Westbrook won the 2017 MVP, and then finished fifth, 10th, and 11th in MVP voting in his subsequent triple double seasons as voters made the odd determination that Westbrook's triple double dominance was no longer relevant, which is perhaps similar to Chamberlain winning the MVP as a rookie after averaging a record 37.6 ppg and a record 27.0 rpg, and then not winning an MVP in the next five seasons despite averaging 38.4 ppg/27.2 rpg, 50.4 ppg/25.7 rpg, 44.8 ppg/24.3 rpg, 36.9 ppg/22.3 rpg, and 34.7 ppg/22.9 rpg. When a player makes unprecedented greatness routine, he risks making the MVP voters disinterested, dismissive, or jealous.

The eye test and the numbers show that when Jokic is on the court the Denver Nuggets have a highly efficient offense but when he is off of the court the Nuggets' offense performs at the level of a Draft Lottery team. It is difficult to overstate the impact that Jokic has not just in terms of posting gaudy individual numbers but in terms of boosting his team's effectiveness. Jokic is not a great individual defender but he is a smart team defender and an elite defensive rebounder who also ranked second in the league in steals this season. 

I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league, with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player (for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player). Jokic is a rare player who checks both boxes: he is the league's best all-around player and he is also a dominant big man. Other than the lame excuse of "voter fatigue" or the media's incessant quest to create a different prevailing narrative each season, it is difficult to understand why Jokic would not win the MVP award this season.

The above analysis is not meant to take anything away from Gilgeous-Alexander, who without question played at an MVP level, winning his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 32.7 ppg while also setting a career-high in assists (6.4 apg) and ranking fifth in steals (1.7 spg). He is a solid rebounder for a guard (5.0 rpg), and he is a very efficient scorer from all levels, with shooting splits of .519/.375/.898. The main case for Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting behind Jokic last season, is that he is the best player on the league's best team. However, if impact on team performance is going to be a factor in MVP voting then we also have to consider the relative strength of each MVP candidate's supporting casts--and no one would argue that Jokic has a better or deeper supporting cast in Denver than Gilgeous-Alexander does in Oklahoma City. It is easy to picture Jokic leading this Thunder team to a great regular season record and a deep playoff run, because Jokic led a weaker Denver team to the 2023 NBA title. The point is that Jokic has already proven that he can carry a team to a championship, while Gilgeous-Alexander seems capable of doing so but has not yet accomplished that feat. If a legitimate argument could be made that these two players have similarly strong supporting casts, then perhaps Oklahoma City's superior record could be an MVP tiebreaker--but because that is not the case, I am disinclined to give Gilgeous-Alexander the MVP based on team record.

I don't have a huge problem with Gilgeous-Alexander winning the MVP; unlike some players who have won the award, he did play at an MVP level this season, so I would say that he is an MVP caliber player but that he is not this season's MVP because Jokic had an even better season. 

Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will finish 1-2 in the voting, as they should, and either order is acceptable, but it would be nice if the voters looked at overall impact as opposed to crafting a narrative ("Gilgeous-Alexander transformed his game to become the best player on the best team in the league, while Jokic's Nuggets barely earned a top four seed").

Giannis Antetokounmpo had an MVP caliber season as well, averaging 30.4 ppg (second in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 6.5 apg while shooting .601 from the field (sixth). Antetokounmpo is the only player in pro basketball history to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .600 from the field, a feat that he has now accomplished in consecutive seasons. He has finished fourth or higher in MVP voting in each of the past six seasons (including winning the honor in 2019 and 2020), and he should finish in the top four again this season. 

Jayson Tatum was judged by Steve Kerr to be not quite good enough to crack the starting lineup for Team USA's Olympic gold medal winning squad last summer, but Tatum maintained his status as a top five NBA player by averaging 26.8 ppg (fifth in the league), 8.7 rpg, and a career-high 6.0 apg.

Donovan Mitchell is not as physically imposing as the other MVP candidates, and he is the worst defensive player in the group, but he deserves a lot of credit for modifying his playing style to maximize his team's potential. As the best player on the top seeded team in the Eastern Conference, he earned some top five MVP votes; he should not receive any first place votes, but Mitchell played at an All-NBA First Team level this season. Mitchell averaged 24.0 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.5 rpg. 

Here are my first round predictions:

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland (64-18) versus #8 Miami (37-45)

The Cavaliers did not finish the season strongly, and it remains to be seen if that is a sign of a crack in their armor or merely boredom setting in after wrapping up the Eastern Conference's top seed. Cleveland led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg), ranked second in field goal percentage (.491), rebounded well (45.4 rpg, sixth in the league), and finished third in defensive field goal percentage (.454); last season, with the same core group of players, the Cavaliers ranked 20th in scoring (112.6 ppg), 12th in field goal percentage (.479), 17th in rebounding (43.3 rpg), and sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.463). In short, the Cavaliers remained a good defensive team while becoming much more productive and efficient on offense.

As mentioned above, Donovan Mitchell had an All-NBA First Team caliber season. Darius Garland (20.6 ppg, team-high 6.7 apg) earned his second All-Star selection, and Evan Mobley (career-high 18.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg, team-high 1.6 bpg) made the All-Star team for the first time. Jarrett Allen (13.5 ppg, team-high 9.7 rpg) and midseason acquisition Deandre Hunter (14.3 ppg as a Cavalier, primarily as a bench player) round out an imposing and versatile quintet. Ty Jerome set career highs in scoring (12.5 ppg) and three point field goal percentage (.439, fourth in the NBA) as a long range sniper off of the bench.

The Miami Heat looked lost at sea after Jimmy Butler forced his way to Golden State, and they suffered a 10 game losing streak from March 5-March 21 to drop to 29-41 before finishing the season 8-4 to grab the last spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. No 10th seed had ever advanced to the playoffs from the NBA Play-In Tournament--until the Heat bludgeoned the Chicago Bulls 109-90 before beating the Atlanta Hawks 123-114 in overtime. The Heat feature first-time All-Star Tyler Herro, who averaged a career-high 23.9 ppg before scoring 38 points and 30 points in the two NBA Play-In Tournament games. Center Bam Adebayo is a three-time All-Star, and Andrew Wiggins--who the Heat received in exchange for Butler--is a one-time All-Star who played a key role for Golden State's 2022 championship team. 

The Cavaliers are talented, deep, and cohesive. The Miami Heat are scrappy and well-coached--and they have advanced in the playoffs as the lower seeded team before--but beating two very flawed teams in the NBA Play-In Tournament will not translate into making a deep playoff run this year. Cleveland will win in five games.

#2 Boston (61-21) versus #7 Orlando (41-41)

The Celtics did not rest on their championship laurels, breaking the record for three point field goals made in a season (1457) while ranking eighth in scoring (116.3 ppg), second in points allowed (107.2 ppg), and second in defensive field goal percentage (.450). The main concern for this team is the health/availability of their top players. Jaylen Brown recently receive a painkilling injection in his knee, and five of the top seven players in the rotation each missed at least 10 games during the regular season. Brown--who won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP last season--had an ordinary season by his lofty standards (22.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.5 apg), while Jayson Tatum solidified his status as one of the NBA's five best players (as discussed above). 

The Magic persevered through an injury-riddled season to qualify for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament. They are a physical, grind it out team led by Paolo Banchero (25.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.8 apg), who played in just 46 games but is healthy now. Losing Jalen Suggs (16.2 ppg) to season-ending knee surgery was a significant blow.

The Magic won the season series versus the Celtics 2-1, and there is no doubt that their size and physicality bother the Celtics, but if the Celtics are at full strength they have too much talent and too much offensive firepower for the Magic to handle in a seven game series. Boston will win in five games.

#3 New York (51-31) versus #6 Detroit (44-38)

The Knicks won one more game than they did last season, but the national media narrative about this team focuses on their poor record against the best teams in the Eastern Conference; it is interesting to see how narratives are shaped based on expectations: when the Knicks were terrible, a 51 win season would have been considered great, but now that the Knicks have had some recent postseason success they are held to a higher standard. 

Jalen Brunson finished fifth in MVP balloting last season after averaging a career-high 28.7 ppg in 77 games, but this season his production dropped to 26.0 ppg in 65 games. He recently returned to action after suffering a right ankle sprain. He averaged 32.4 ppg in last year's playoffs before suffering a broken left hand in the Knicks' game seven loss to the Indiana Pacers. Brunson is strong and tough, but as a smaller player he is likely to continue to be injury-prone, just because of the reality of absorbing so much physical pounding versus bigger players. 

The acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns (24.4 ppg, 12.8 rpg) improved the Knicks' offense but hurt the team defensively. OG Anunoby (18.0 ppg), Mikal Bridges (17.6 ppg), and Josh Hart (13.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 5.9 apg) all had very productive seasons.

Cade Cunningham (26.0 ppg, 9.1 apg, 6.1 rpg) is a rising star for the Pistons, who were perhaps the most surprising team in the league this season. The Pistons are a young team, but they are talented and feisty. They won the season series versus the Knicks 3-1, but the playoffs are different than the regular season. Brunson is a proven clutch performer, and he will be the difference in a fiercely contested series. New York will win in seven games.

#4 Indiana (50-32) versus #5 Milwaukee (48-34)

The Pacers started this season 9-14 and looked like they would struggle just to reach the NBA Play-In Tournament, but they closed the season with a 12-3 sprint to lock up the fourth seed and homecourt advantage in at least the first round. Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), while Tyrese Haliburton ranked second in scoring (18.5 ppg) and first in assists (9.2 apg, third in the league after ranking first with 10.9 apg in 2023-24).

The Bucks enter the playoffs riding an eight game winning streak, but several of the victories were against weak opponents (including New Orleans twice, Philadelphia, and Phoenix). As discussed above, Giannis Antetokounmpo had yet another MVP caliber season. Damian Lillard averaged 24.9 ppg and 7.1 apg, but he played in just 58 games this season and he will miss at least the start of the playoffs due to a blood clot. Trading injury-prone Khris Middleton for the younger and bigger Kyle Kuzma provided a midseason boost for the Bucks. When the Bucks are at full strength they can look quite good, but they were not at full strength often enough this season and they are unlikely to be at full strength during this series.

The Pacers beat the Bucks 4-2 in the first round last year despite not having homecourt advantage, but Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to injury while Lillard only played in four of the six games. The Pacers also won the regular season series 4-1 in 2023-24, but this season the Bucks won the season series 3-1. Antetokoumpo will post monstrous numbers, but Indiana will win in seven games.

Western Conference

#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) versus #8 Memphis (48-34)

The Thunder built their roster by a shrewd deal trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (and other considerations, including five draft picks, one of which became Jalen Williams) in 2019, followed by two seasons of tanking (22-50 in the abbreviated 2020-21 season, 24-58 in the 2021-22 season) to hoard draft picks/trade collateral. In the past three seasons, the Thunder went 40-42, 57-25 (first in the Western Conference), and 68-14 (best record in the league, and tied for the sixth best record all-time). I hate tanking because it does not work, because it violates the spirit of competition, and because it rips off fans who pay for tickets, but the Thunder tanked in an unusual way in that they acquired their franchise player first, and then attempted to build a sound foundational culture even amidst the losing. I still don't like it, but the Thunder's process was a little more organic and natural--surround Gilgeous-Alexander with young players who can grow up with him--than Philadelphia's "Process" of stripping a playoff team to the studs and rolling the dice that their franchise player would be available in the Draft (hint: there is a ton of evidence proving that Joel Embiid, despite his unquestionable talent, does not have the mentality or physical durability necessary to be a franchise player).

This season, the Thunder feasted on the league's five worst teams, going a combined 14-0 versus Charlotte, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Utah, and Washington, but they also went a combined 17-6 against the teams that won at least 50 games (Boston, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Indiana, the L.A. Clippers, the L.A. Lakers, and the New York Knicks). Statistically, they are one of the greatest regular season teams of all-time, and their roster includes a nice balance of size, speed, youth, and experience. MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander is their best player, but Jalen Williams (21.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.1 apg) earned his first All-Star selection, Chet Holmgren averaged 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 2.2 bpg in 32 games, Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 3.8 apg) provided rebounding and physicality, and Lu Dort played excellent defense along with supplemental scoring/three point shooting (10.1 ppg/.412 3FG%).

The Memphis Grizzlies held the second spot in the Western Conference at times during this season, but there is no special prize for dropping from second place to eighth place--other than earning the toughest possible first round matchup. Ja Morant (23.2 ppg, 7.3 apg in 50 games this season) can be spellbinding at times and a knucklehead at other times. Desmond Bane (19.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.3 apg, .484/.392/.894 shooting splits) is Memphis' most reliable player. The Grizzlies fired Coach Taylor Jenkins when they were 44-29, and they closed the season 4-5 with interim Coach Thomas Iisalo at the helm.

The Grizzlies navigated a bumpy season before qualifying for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament, and despite the media hype surrounding them the reality is that the Thunder easily swept them during the regular season. Oklahoma City will win in four games.

#2 Houston (52-30) versus #7 Golden State (48-34)

The Houston Rockets ranked first in the league in rebounding (48.5 rpg), sixth in points allowed (109.8 ppg), sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.459), and 11th in turnovers committed (13.9 tpg). They are a physical team that is difficult to score against and that values possessions. Their biggest weakness is shooting; they ranked 21st in both field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage. Jalen Green led the team in scoring (21.0 ppg) and he is a classic "scares us, scares them" player: he could explode for 40 points in a game, or he could detonate his team's chances with questionable shot selection. Alperen Sengun (19.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.9 apg) is Houston's best all-around player. Point guard Fred VanVleet (14.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) led the team in minutes played (35.2 mpg) and assists; he is a steadying hand with championship experience as a key rotation player for Toronto's 2019 title team. VanVleet averaged 14.0 ppg versus the Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals.

Golden State was a mediocre team at best before acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. The Warriors have been a better team since the trade, but after losing two of their final three regular season games they were forced to win an NBA Play-In Tournament game versus Memphis to qualify for the playoffs. At 37 years old, Stephen Curry is still a deadly scorer/shooter, but his 24.5 ppg scoring average was his lowest since he averaged 20.8 ppg in five games in his injury-shortened 2019-20 season, and it was his lowest full season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. The 35 year old Butler averaged 17.9 ppg in 30 games with the Warriors before erupting for 38 points versus Memphis in the NBA Play-In Tournament.

Golden State won the season series, 3-2, but the last time these teams played with their current rosters was April 6, 2025, and the Rockets won that game, 106-92. Dillon Brooks led the Rockets with 24 points, and the Rockets held Butler to 13 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while limiting Curry to three points on 1-10 field goal shooting. No one should expect Butler or Curry to play that poorly in any game in this series, but the point is that Houston's physicality can pose challenges for the Warriors. Houston has been the better team all season long, and the Rockets have game seven at home if necessary. Houston will win in six games.

#3 L.A. Lakers (50-32) versus #6 Minnesota (49-33)

The Lakers feature Luka Doncic--one of the league's five best players, who would be in the MVP conversation had he played in enough games this season--alongside LeBron James and Austin Reaves, meaning that they have three players who can initiate the offense by scoring or playmaking. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections prior to this season, has been a top five player for the past five seasons and could easily be a top five player for the next decade. 

Regardless of how the LeBron James era in L.A. ends, the Luka Doncic era has begun, which means that if the Lakers build shrewdly around Doncic they can be a contender for the foreseeable future. Doncic averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg in 28 games with the Lakers, and he is the first player who played alongside James without having to take a back seat. Whether because of age or just his respect for Doncic, James has handed over the reins to Doncic, but James is still productive: he averaged 24.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 8.2 apg this season. James earned his record 21st All-Star selection, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams as well. Reaves is the poor man's Doncic: not as good offensively and even worse on defense, but still capable of causing problems with his scoring (career-high 20.2 ppg) and passing (career-high 5.8 apg).

Anthony Edwards had another excellent season, setting career highs in scoring (27.6 ppg) and three point field goal percentage (.395). The Timberwolves need him to attack the hoop and not just settle for three pointers versus the Lakers, because by attacking the hoop he can break down the defense to create opportunities for his teammates while also getting the Lakers in foul trouble. After playing just 46 games with the Knicks in 2023-24, Julius Randle averaged 18.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and 4.7 apg in 69 games in his first season with Minnesota; the former Laker could play a key role in this series if he attacks the paint instead of settling for jump shots. Naz Reid provides scoring and physicality off of the bench, and four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert must be a force in the paint at both ends of the court for Minnesota to win. 

In this series, I don't trust J.J. Redick's coaching versus Chris Finch's coaching, but I am also mindful that TNT's Charles Barkley has justifiably called the Timberwolves "dumb as rocks" based on some questionable decision making by their players. Finch must understand that the way to beat the Lakers is to attack them in the paint, but will his players execute that game plan? The Lakers lack size and one would expect that to hurt them defensively, but they have been able to mask their deficiencies on that side of the court by scoring a lot of points and relying on some gimmicky defenses. That is not a formula for a deep playoff run, but with homecourt advantage in their back pocket they should have just enough to get past the Timberwolves. L.A. will win in seven games.

#4 Denver (50-32) versus #5 L.A. Clippers (50-32) 

The Nuggets won at least 50 games for the third season in a row despite a tumultuous campaign that included the firing of Coach Michael Malone and General Manager Calvin Booth with three games left in the regular season. The Nuggets went 3-0 under interim Coach David Adelman to lock up the fourth seed and homecourt advantage for at least one round.

Earlier in this article, I discussed Nikola Jokic's sensational season that should result in him winning his fourth regular season MVP. Jamal Murray put up solid numbers (21.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) this season, but he only showed flashes of the form that he displayed during the team's championship run two years ago. Michael Porter Jr. finished second on the Nuggets in scoring (18.2 ppg, his highest scoring average since he averaged 19.0 ppg in the 2020-21 season). Christian Braun averaged a career-high 15.4 ppg while starting 77 out of 79 games. Aaron Gordon is a reliable threat from the "dunker" spot (14.7 ppg) who shot a career-high .436 from three point range. Russell Westbrook's energy and unselfishness were a net positive for the Clippers last season, and he filled a similar role for the Nuggets this season, averaging 13.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 4.9 rpg. Media members love making Westbrook a scapegoat, but the reality is that Westbrook quickly developed great chemistry with Jokic and was productive both as a starter and as a reserve.

The Nuggets are not good defensively, but they ranked first in field goal percentage (.506) and third in points scored (120.8 ppg). The biggest question about this team is if they can elevate their defense enough so that their efficient offense can carry the day. The second biggest question about this team revolves around health/depth; they do not have enough depth to absorb injuries or foul trouble.

The Clippers finished the regular season with an eight game winning streak to secure the fifth seed and avoid falling into the NBA Play-In Tournament. That run corresponded with the return to healthy form of Kawhi Leonard, who played in seven of those eight games and scored at least 20 points in all seven of the games that he played. Leonard missed the first 34 games of the season, and ended up averaging 21.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 3.1 apg in 37 games, including 26.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg in six games in April. When Leonard is healthy, the two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) is a special player, but he has not made it through a playoff run unscathed since 2020, when the Nuggets beat the Clippers in seven games in the second round. Leonard missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, and he played in just four of a possible 11 playoff games in the past two years. The sad reality is that it is unlikely that the nearly 34 year old Leonard can make it through the playoffs without getting injured; he plays an efficient but physical brand of basketball that his body cannot seem to withstand.

James Harden led the Clippers in scoring (22.8 ppg) and assists (8.7 apg, fifth in the league) and was selected as an All-Star for the first time since 2022. He posted the second-worst field goal percentage of his career (.410) and had the second most turnovers in the league (341, fourth highest total of his career), but if you follow how the media covers the league then you know that shooting and turnovers only matter when talking about certain players; no matter what Harden does, he is always labeled "efficient." Norman Powell (career-high 21.8 ppg, shooting splits of .484/.418/.804) is the Clippers guard who should have been selected as an All-Star. Center Ivica Zubac posted career-high numbers in scoring (16.8 ppg) and rebounding (12.6 rpg, fourth in the league).

Coach Ty Lue and his assistant/defensive coordinator Jeff Van Gundy have the Clippers playing excellent defense, ranking fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers have the advantage in this series in terms of coaching and defense, but the Nuggets have by far the best player while the Clippers have by far the worst choker, and the difference between Jokic and Harden will be the difference in this series. Harden may have a 40 point game in this series, but when the series is over he will have posted multiple "concert tour" field goal percentages and at least one "Harden" (a game with more turnovers than field goals made). Leonard will make his presence felt, but I have the sinking feeling that he will not make it through the series injury-free.

Lue and Leonard will keep the series close--the series may very well start 2-2--but Denver will win in six games.      

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Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Cleveland-Indiana, Boston-New York, Oklahoma City-Denver, and Houston-L.A. Lakers.

The Pacers' main weapon is to speed up the game, but that should not bother a Cavaliers team that led the NBA in scoring. The Pacers are not strong enough on defense or on the boards to beat the Cavaliers in a seven game series. Cleveland will win in six games

The Knicks struggled all season versus the elite teams, including an 0-4 record versus the Celtics. The sample size is more than large enough to demonstrate that the Knicks are just not good enough to win a seven game series against an elite team. Boston will win in five games.

The Thunder beat the Nuggets 102-87 in the first game of the season with the Nuggets at full strength and the Thunder missing the injured Isaiah Hartenstein, but the teams split the season series, 2-2. Jokic is a matchup nightmare for any team, but the Thunder's speed, depth, and defensive tenacity will be too much for the Nuggets. Oklahoma City will win in six games.

Houston is a physical, defensive-minded team that will punish the Lakers in the paint. This series will feature twists and turns, some Dillon Brooks shenanigans and probably at least one 40 point game by Doncic, but teams that are thrown together in the middle of the season like the Lakers were rarely make deep playoff runs. Houston will win in seven games.

Cleveland versus Boston is a series that has been anticipated ever since the Cavaliers started the season 15-0. The Cavaliers have not reached the Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James' last season in Cleveland (2018), while the Celtics have been perennial Eastern Conference Finalists since 2017; that experience matters, and I expect the Celtics to win one of the first two games in Cleveland before finishing off the series in six games.

Oklahoma City-Houston will be a battle of young teams that could meet on this stage several times in the next few years. Before the start of the season, I still had some skepticism about the Thunder's readiness to win multiple playoff series, but 82 games of dominance this season reduced my doubt. Oklahoma City will win in six games.

The NBA Finals will feature Boston going for a repeat and Oklahoma City trying to win a championship for the first time since the franchise relocated from Seattle in 2008. In 2022, the Celtics learned the hard way how much championship experience matters as they blew a 2-1 NBA Finals lead and lost 4-2 to the Golden State Warriors. A good case could be made that the Celtics had a better team than the Warriors in 2022, but several of Golden State's players had already won multiple championships. I would argue that the difference between the 2022 Celtics who failed to win a championship and the 2025 Thunder is that the Thunder are a more efficient, less mistake-prone team. It is difficult for a young team to win a championship, but it is also difficult to win back to back titles, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Warriors did it in 2017-18. Oklahoma City will win in seven games.

******************** 

Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:

In my 2024-2025 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went five for eight in my 2024-2025 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: East 7/8, West 5/8
2023: East 7/8, West 6/8
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8

That adds up to 124/160 in the East and 123/160 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .772.

Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:

2024: 12/15
2023: 9/15
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15

Total: 216/300 (.720)

At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 20 years I have correctly picked 20 of the 40 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 20 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.

I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:05 AM

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Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament

Perhaps the NBA's media partners feel obligated to rave about how great the NBA Play-In Tournament is, but I said it in 2021 during the first NBA Play-In Tournament and I will say it again now: Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball. In the pre-Adam Silver NBA, after the regular season ended we were spared from watching sub-.500 teams battle to claim the eighth seed; a team could only earn a playoff spot by playing as hard as possible during the season to finish in the top eight, without the safety net of having a second chance to "play in" to the playoffs.

The problem with having the ninth and tenth best teams face off in high profile games is that teams with losing records did not stack up losses by accident; they are flawed squads, and when you shine a national spotlight on those squads their flaws are glaringly obvious. Instead of creating gimmicks like the NBA Cup and the Play-In Tournament to try to discourage tanking and convince teams to play hard throughout the season, the NBA should have adopted the relegation system while also not allowing the worst teams to get the top draft picks; if the worst teams each season were dropped to a lower, less prestigious, and less lucrative league instead of being rewarded with the opportunity to draft the best young players, teams would not only stop losing on purpose but they would do their best to at least win enough to avoid relegation.

In the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader of uninspired basketball, the 37-45 Miami Heat tamed the 39-43 Chicago Bulls, 109-90. I erred by picking the Bulls--who went 15-5 in their last 20 games--to not only win this game but to win on Friday night to earn the eighth seed. The Bulls clearly preferred getting an early start on their summer vacation versus fighting to get into the playoffs; the Bulls never led, trailed by as many as 17 points in the first quarter, and allowed the anemic Heat offense to shoot 41-83 (.494) from the field as boos echoed throughout the United Center. Tyler Herro scored a game-high 38 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, while Josh Giddey paced the Bulls with 25 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. The Heat led 71-47 at halftime, and they led by at least 13 points the rest of the way. I thought that the Bulls would prove to be the better team, but the reality is that neither of these teams is very good, so in a one game winner take all showdown anything can happen--anything other than competitive and entertaining basketball.

The second game of the doubleheader was no better, with the home team again looking lethargic and offering little defensive resistance as the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks--who went 7-13 in their last 20 games--blasted the 40-42 Sacramento Kings, 120-106. It is fair to say that firing Coach Mike Brown and then trading De'Aaron Fox did not make the Kings better; the Kings went 6-9 down the stretch before rolling over and playing dead at home in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Even without the services of injured All-Star Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks made light work of the Kings, leading 71-48 at halftime (nearly matching the halftime margin of the Miami-Chicago fiasco) and maintaining at least a 16 point cushion throughout the second half until Terence Davis hit a meaningless three pointer with 19.9 seconds remaining to close out the scoring.

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring and rebounding (27 points, nine rebounds), Klay Thompson had a flashback shooting performance (23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting), Brandon Williams contributed 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off of the bench, and P.J. Washington scored 17 points while tying Davis for team-high honors with nine rebounds. For the deposed Kings, DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 33 points, Zach LaVine added 20 points on 8-19 field goal shooting along with nine assists and a game-high tying five turnovers, and Domantas Sabonis had 11 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers.

Since the NBA began the Play-In Tournament in 2021, no 10th seeded team has claimed the eighth seed in either conference; that will change on Friday night if Miami beats Atlanta or if Dallas beats Memphis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Giddey, Klay Thompson, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

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Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths

The NBA Play-In Tournament lived up (or down) to my expectations in the opener, as the physical, defensive-minded Orlando Magic stomped an Atlanta Hawks team that struggled to score and then compounded that problem by playing very little defense. The Magic won 120-95 and the game was not as close as the final margin suggested: the Magic outrebounded the Hawks 54-42, outscored the Hawks in the paint 58-52, and held the Hawks to 32-82 field goal shooting (.381), including 4-21 (.190) from three point range. The Magic's bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30.

Cole Anthony scored a team-high 26 points off of the bench for Orlando, and he passed for six assists without committing a turnover in 20 minutes of action. Wendell Carter Jr. added 19 points, and Paolo Banchero had a strong all-around game (17 points, nine rebounds, team-high seven assists) even though he shot just 4-13 from the field. Anthony Black contributed 16 points, four rebounds, and four assists as a reserve while posting a game-best +34 plus/minus number.

Trae Young scored a game-high 28 points, but he shot just 8-21 from the field and had the second worst plus/minus number (-22) in the game. Young capped off his performance by getting ejected for disrespecting a referee with 4:47 remaining in the game; in his post-game press conference, Young complained about his team not getting a fair whistle, even though the Magic committed more fouls (25-18) and the Hawks shot more free throws (34-27). I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five playoff series. 

The Magic outscored the Hawks 17-2 in the final 4:58 of the first quarter and led 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. There is so much talk about "clutch time" statistics, but the reality is that the NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was true in this game: the Magic outscored the Hawks by 15 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Hawks by 10 the rest of the way. The Magic built a 22 point first half lead before settling for a 61-47 halftime edge. The Hawks cut the margin to 71-68 on a Caris LeVert layup with 3:00 left in the third quarter, but the Magic outscored the Hawks 21-13 in the next seven minutes to reestablish a double digit lead that they never relinquished the rest of the way.

The Magic earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and will face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while the Hawks will host the winner of the Chicago-Miami game for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

The second game of Tuesday night's NBA Play-In Tournament doubleheader looked like it was heading toward a blowout win for Golden State after the Warriors sprinted to a 55-35 second quarter lead versus Memphis, but the Grizzlies roared back to cut the margin to single digits at the 8:43 mark of the third quarter. The Grizzlies led 96-94 early in the fourth quarter, and did not trail by more than six points the rest of the way. I predicted that the Warriors would win "a close, hard fought game," and the Warriors eventually prevailed, 121-116.

Jimmy Butler added another chapter to the legend of "Playoff Jimmy" (or "Play-In Jimmy," in this instance), pouring in a game-high 38 points on 12-20 field goal shooting while also contributing seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. The way that he forced his way out of Miami in the middle of this season instead of honoring his contract stinks, but there is no denying his talent. Stephen Curry shot a Trae Young-like 9-22 from the field, but he made all 13 of his free throws to finish with 37 points while also grabbing a team-high eight rebounds, passing for four assists, and committing just one turnover in 39 minutes. 

Desmond Bane scored a team-high 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting. Ja Morant added 22 points, but he had just three assists while committing a game-high five turnovers. Even more worrisome for the Grizzlies is that he scored just four points after suffering a nasty sprained ankle while hitting a 10 foot jumper with 4:25 left in the third quarter and the Warriors clinging to an 82-80 lead. Morant was fouled on the play and made the free throw to bring the Grizzlies to within one point. Jaren Jackson Jr. (18 points, six rebounds, four assists) and rookie Zach Edey (14 points, game-high 17 rebounds) played solidly in the paint but the Grizzlies needed them to shoot better from the field than 6-15 and 4-11 respectively.

The Grizzlies outrebounded the Warriors 50-39, but they squandered those extra possessions by losing the turnover battle, 19-10. If the undersized Warriors get outrebounded by a team that does not handle the ball with the dexterity of Edward Scissorhands they will likely lose, so they are facing quite the challenge as the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a first round matchup versus a Houston team that led the NBA in rebounding while ranking 11th in fewest turnovers. The Rockets are bigger, stronger, and younger than the Warriors while also having homecourt advantage.

The Grizzlies will host the winner of the Dallas-Sacramento game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Morant's swift recovery from his ankle injury is important, but the Grizzlies should have enough firepower to beat Dallas or Sacramento--and they don't have enough firepower to pose much of a threat to the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

The best news is that the Play-In Tournament will soon be over, and the playoffs will begin on Saturday April 19.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cole Anthony, Desmond Bane, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jimmy Butler, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Play-In Tournament, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Wendell Carter Jr.

posted by David Friedman @ 2:32 AM

4 comments

Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

In a tradition unlike any other--and not in a good way--the NBA Play-In Tournament is the unappetizing appetizer before the NBA playoffs begin on April 19. Two of the four Western Conference Play-In teams have losing records, but the Eastern Conference tops that with three out of four Play-In teams having losing records (and the fourth, Orlando, is 41-41). When losing teams face each other for the opportunity to get stomped in the first round of the playoffs, fans are treated to incredible basketball. In the scintillating 2021 NBA Play-In Tournament, the Indiana Pacers silenced the Charlotte Hornets, 144-117. To give you an idea of how great that 2021 Pacers team was, in their next game they bowed out of the Play-In Tournament after losing 142-115 to the Washington Wizards, who were promptly dispatched in the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-1. In more recent captivating Play-In Tournament action, last year the 39-43 Chicago Bulls beat the 36-46 Atlanta Hawks 131-116 before losing 116-91 to the 46-36 Miami Heat, who then got drubbed 4-1 by the Boston Celtics in the first round. 

The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 41-41 Orlando Magic hosting the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks to earn the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and a first round matchup versus the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics. Then, the 48-34 Golden State Warriors host the 48-34 Memphis Grizzlies in a battle for the Western Conference's seventh seed and a first round matchup versus the Houston Rockets. The Warriors are perhaps the Play-In Tournament team that is most highly regarded; they improved a lot after acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat but--as I predicted right after that trade happened--the Warriors are fighting just to get in the playoffs, so any notion about them making a deep playoff run seems far-fetched. The Warriors could have qualified for the playoffs outright by beating the L.A. Clippers in their season finale, but instead the Warriors lost 124-119 in overtime while getting outrebounded 42-25 and letting the Clippers shoot .558 from the field.

The eighth seeds in each conference will be determined after the 39-43 Chicago Bulls host the 37-45 Miami Heat and the 40-42 Sacramento Kings host the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The losers of those games will be eliminated, while the winners will face the losers of the Orlando-Atlanta and Golden State-Memphis games respectively to claim the final playoff spots.

Last season, the Magic looked like a young team on the rise, posting a 47-35 record to finish fifth in the Eastern Conference before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. This season, the Magic suffered a lot of injuries to key players, and they limped--literally and figuratively--to a 41-41 record. They struggle to score, but they keep the pace down and thus rank first in the league in points allowed. 

The Hawks are the stylistic opposite of the Magic, ranking fifth in points scored and 27th in points allowed, and they rely heavily on the inefficient Trae Young (24.2 ppg, league-leading 11.6 apg, .411 FG%) to score and to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. The Hawks went 8-7 down the stretch, and they split the season series with the Magic, including a Hawks season finale win with both teams sitting many of their key players. The Magic went 10-5 in their last 15 games, including the meaningless last game loss to the Hawks. 

In a battle of two mediocre teams fighting to be first round fodder, I pick the Magic to beat the Hawks.

This season, the Warriors ranked seventh in rebounding, eighth in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage; those rankings are very strong, but not quite as good as the team's rankings in 2022 (seventh, third, and second respectively) when they won their most recent NBA title. The Warriors started the season 25-26 and then went 23-8 after the Butler trade, but the Warriors went just 9-6 in the last 15 games, including the aforementioned loss to the Clippers that forced them to participate in the Play-In Tournament. Few championship teams are formed on the fly, and there is little reason to believe that--even if one accepts the proposition that this is a championship caliber team--this team will be the exception. 

The Grizzlies ranked second in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, and eighth in field goal percentage. Those are championship caliber rankings, but the Grizzlies went just 6-9 down the stretch, including 4-5 after replacing Coach Taylor Jenkins with interim Coach Tuomas lisalo. Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in scoring (23.2 ppg) and assists (7.3 apg) this season after playing just nine games last season--but even this season he only played 50 games and his numbers across the board were not at the same level as his 2022 and 2023 statistics. Throughout his career, Morant has been fined and suspended multiple times for actions that are immature or worse, and this season he was fined $75,000 by the NBA for a finger gun celebration. One might think that squandering more money than many people make in a year would cause him to rethink his behavior, but instead Morant doubled down by switching to a hand grenade celebration. What is next? A howitzer? Meanwhile, what idiotic things will Draymond Green say or do while Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler do the heavy lifting required to win this game? On the one hand, it would be hilarious if Butler and Green don't even make it to the first round of the playoffs after all of their talking and posturing, but on the other hand as soon as the Warriors are eliminated we will likely be subjected to Green polluting the airwaves with bizarre commentary for TNT--so fans face a lose-lose proposition with this game. 

Both of these teams pose as championship contenders without appearing to have what it takes to win a championship this season (if ever), but in this game I am picking the Warriors to win a close, hard fought game over the Grizzlies.

The losers of the above games will play the winners of the 9-10 matchups in their respective conferences. The Miami Heat were not particularly good this season with or without Butler, though they did go 8-7 in their last 15 games. The Heat defend reasonably well--ranking seventh in points allowed, ninth in defensive rebounds, and 12th in defensive field goal percentage--but they struggle offensively, ranking 18th in field goal percentage and 24th in scoring. 

The Chicago Bulls rank sixth in scoring but 28th in points allowed. The Bulls shipped leading scorer Zach LaVine to Sacramento in a three team midseason deal. They turned the offense over to Coby White, who averaged 20.4 ppg overall, including 24.5 ppg after the All-Star Game. The Bulls went 11-4 in the final 15 games to move up to the ninth spot and earn the right to host one Play-In Tournament game.

I am picking the Bulls to score at least 115 points and beat the Heat, and then I am picking the Bulls to beat the Hawks to claim the eighth seed.

After reaching the NBA Finals last season for the first time since winning the 2011 NBA title, the Dallas Mavericks made an era-defining in-season trade by sending franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis. To put it mildly, the trade has not worked out well for the Mavericks so far; the team's fans are outraged, and the Mavericks struggled to absorb the loss of Doncic plus injuries to all of their key big men (including Davis, who is now back), and the season-ending torn ACL suffered by Kyrie Irving shortly after the fateful trade happened. The Mavericks went 6-9 down the stretch, and for portions of this season they barely could pull together the required eight healthy bodies just to avoid forfeiting a game. We will have to wait until at least next season to find out how good the Mavericks can be with Davis, Irving, and the Daniel Gafford-Dereck Lively II big man tandem.

The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start to the season. They enjoyed a brief honeymoon period under interim Coach Doug Christie, and then they finished the season by going 6-9 in the last 15 games to slide to ninth; if the season had lasted a week longer, they easily could have fallen into the Draft Lottery.

I am picking the Kings to beat the Mavericks, and then I am picking the Grizzlies to beat the Kings.

If my predictions are correct, the Magic and Warriors will claim the seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded teams will be the Bulls and Grizzlies. 

We can hope that this year's Play-In Tournament provides at least a few interesting and competitive games.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2024

76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)

Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)

The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons  (April 15, 2024)

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

2021

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Play-In Tournament, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 10:56 PM

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NBA's Coaching Carousel Keeps Spinning as Denver Fires Michael Malone

In a season notable for the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade and the firing of respected veteran coaches Mike Brown and Taylor Jenkins, the Denver Nuggets added to the list of surprising moves by firing Michael Malone, who coached the team to the franchise's first championship just two years ago. The Nuggets could finish as high as third in the West, so firing the coach with the most wins (471) in franchise history and the most wins (438) in the NBA since 2016-17 is stunning, even considering the contentious nature of Malone's relationship with General Manager Calvin Booth, who the Nuggets also fired. Assistant coach David Adelman, son of long-time NBA coach Rick Adelman, is now Denver's interim head coach.

Media members and fans often make impulsive and subjective evaluations of coaches (and players). I evaluate coaches based on how well their teams play defensively, because defense requires (1) the correct schemes based on the team's personnel and based on matchups, and (2) players buying into whatever the coach is selling. I also evaluate coaches based on the extent to which a team meets or exceeds reasonable expectations. A coach with a roster capable of winning 25 games with a bottom third defensive ranking did a good job if his team finished 30-52 with a top 15 defensive ranking, but a coach with a roster capable of winning 45 games with a top 15 defensive ranking did a bad job if his team won 40 games while ranking 20th in defense (assuming that the teams in this comparison both had reasonably healthy rosters). I evaluate the decision to fire a coach based not only on the above factors but also based on the likelihood of finding a replacement who can do better than the fired coach.

Prior to this season, I picked Denver to be the third best team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are currently in a four way tie for fourth with a 47-32 record (the Nuggets are fifth based on tiebreakers), but the standings are so bunched together that Denver could finish anywhere between third and eighth. Denver's second best player, Jamal Murray, has been limited by injuries for most of this season, and he has missed the last five games due to injury, with the Nuggets losing four in a row after winning the first game that he missed. Until we see how healthy the Nuggets are during the playoffs (or the Play-In Tournament if they drop below sixth in the standings) and how far they advance, it is too soon to say if they have met reasonable expectations. The Nuggets rank 14th in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in points allowed; when they won the 2023 NBA championship they ranked 20th and eighth respectively in those categories, but their roster had more plus defenders at that time. It does not seem likely that a coach is available who will win 438 games and at least one NBA title in the next eight years, so firing Malone with three games to go seems like a rash, irrational move.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the other two high profile coach firings. 

The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start this season. A 13-18 record is not great, but that winning percentage (.419) is better than the full season winning percentages of every Kings team from 2009-18. Brown won the 2023 Coach of the Year award after leading the Kings to a 48-34 record in his first season with the team, and they went 46-36 last season to post their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005-06. A little over a month after firing Brown, the Kings received Zach LaVine in a three team deal during which they sent De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs. The Kings are 26-22 under Doug Christie, and they are clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference. The Kings rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in points allowed after ranking 21st and 17th respectively in those categories last season. Before the season, I ranked the Kings as the eighth best team in the Western Conference. It is fair to say that they underperformed early in the season under Brown, but it is not clear if that sample size of games was sufficient to make the decision to fire Brown, nor is it clear that Christie or whoever else the Kings may bring in next season will be more successful than Brown was.

The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins, who posted a 250-214 record with the Grizzlies from 2019-25, including 44-29 this season. Jenkins led the Grizzlies to two Southwest Division titles (2022-23) and three playoff appearances (2021-23) even though the team's most prominent player--Ja Morant--has never played in more than 67 games in a season (a number that Morant only reached during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign, when he won the Rookie of the Year award). Jenkins is the franchise's career wins leader, and he ranks second in franchise history in career winning percentage while notching the franchise's first (and only) division titles. The Grizzlies went 8-11 after the All-Star Game before firing Jenkins, and they are are 3-3 after replacing him with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who has no prior NBA head coaching experience. Their defense has not been good recently but overall they rank third in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed (which is not as bad as that may sound because they are second in points scored and thus enjoy a nearly +5 ppg point differential). I ranked Memphis as the seventh best team in the Western Conference, and they are currently tied with Denver and two other teams for fourth.

Of the three teams that fired their coaches this season, only the Kings could be singled out for not meeting reasonable expectations, but it is fair to ask (1) if Mike Brown was given enough time and opportunity to right the ship and (2) if either Doug Christie or Doug Christie's replacement can do better long term than Brown. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are who we thought they were, to hearken back to the famous Dennis Green rant; one wonders what their owners think they are/should be, and what those teams will look like not just in the next two weeks but in the next seasons without the services of the excellent coaches who they summarily dismissed. 

The NBA is experiencing an influx of new money; the league just signed a record-setting media rights deal, and many teams have young owners who are flush with cash and who think that possessing billions of dollars makes them experts on everything, including roster construction and coaching strategies. In Phoenix, Mat Ishbia has fired two coaches and done a complete roster overhaul in less than three years, and the Suns have crashed from winning 64 games and reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 to being a 35-44 Draft Lottery team this season.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Michael Malone, Mike Brown, Sacramento Kings, Taylor Jenkins

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM

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The 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class Includes Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard

The 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class includes eight individual inductees, five of whom have NBA ties: Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Danny Crawford, Mickey Arison, and Billy Donovan (an NBA head coach for 10 seasons who is being inducted based on his accomplishments as a college coach, capped off by leading Florida to NCAA titles in 2006 and 2007). The other three individual inductees are women's players Sue Bird, Sylvia Fowles, and Maya Moore. The 2008 Team USA squad that won the Olympic gold medal is also being inducted. Four members of that team--Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd, and Dwyane Wade--have already been inducted individually. 

This website focuses primarily on the NBA, so this article will focus on the Hall of Fame inductees who have NBA connections. 

Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James were both rookies in the 2003-04 NBA season, so it is a tribute to James' remarkable longevity that he is still playing at an All-NBA Team level in the year when Anthony is being inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals in 2007, but Anthony never played in the NBA Finals and he reached the Conference Finals just once in his 19 season NBA career while posting a 3-13 career playoff series record; any player who wins an NBA title posts more playoff series victories in one year (four) than Anthony had in nearly two decades.

Anthony led Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA title as a freshman, and he then had a very productive professional career during which he earned six All-NBA Team selections and 10 All-Star selections while winning the 2013 scoring title. His 28,289 career regular season points rank 12th in ABA/NBA history. Anthony played in the Olympics for Team USA a record four times, winning a bronze medal in 2004 followed by gold medals in 2008, 2012, and 2016. In Team USA's FIBA World Cup Struggles and the Myth of "Olympic Melo," I noted that Anthony's impact on those gold medal-winning teams has been exaggerated:

"Olympic Melo" is a mythical creature. I am not sure when, why or how the myth began, but the myth is not supported by statistics, the eye test or any other meaningful player evaluation system. Consider Anthony's performance in the 2008 Olympics: he had the second lowest field goal percentage on the team (.422, including .382 in medal round play) and he was benched for the final eight minutes of the gold medal game. During medal round play, Team USA outscored the opposition by 25 points when Anthony was in the game; Team USA outscored the opposition by 52 points when Kobe Bryant was in the game, and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when LeBron James was in the game.

Anthony performed somewhat better in the 2012 Olympics, though his overall numbers were skewed by his stat-padding 37 point explosion versus Nigeria during pool play. Anthony scored eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting during the gold medal game, and throughout the tournament he was often on the bench when the score was close.

In the 2016 Olympics, Anthony scored seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. He also had seven rebounds, one of which came after he was reinserted late in a blowout win so that he could set the Team USA Olympic record for career rebounds; he has not been a dominant Olympic rebounder but he holds the U.S. record for most Olympic appearances (four) and most Olympic games played (31, seven more than anyone else), so it is not surprising that he set some career records.

This recitation of facts is not meant to bash Anthony or to diminish his accomplishments and his dedication to Team USA. Here is what I wrote about Anthony after the 2016 gold medal game: "I am not a huge fan of Anthony's game and I am not surprised that he again came up small in the biggest games but I must say that I was moved by how overcome with emotion he was in the moments right after the game. It is obvious that representing his country is very important to Anthony and I commend him for that, particularly since so many players over the years have turned down that opportunity; Anthony has answered that call four times and the flaws in his game do not diminish the dedication that he has demonstrated in support of America and of USA Basketball. Each player on the team committed himself to sacrifice for the greater good; this may not have been a Dream Team but it was an American team that represented America well and it was a pleasure to watch them play the right way in the gold medal game."

In Revising the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List, Part VI, I summarized Anthony's place in pro basketball history: "Even in his prime he was not a great all-around player. He was a championship player in college who regressed in terms of having a championship mentality in the NBA, which is unusual. Most NCAA champions who have the necessary physical talent to excel in the NBA--which Anthony obviously does--hone the championship habits that they formed in college, but Anthony did not. He was never the best player at his position, he played for talented teams that did not seriously contend for the championship, and he resisted when his coaches tried to guide him toward having more of an impact on winning." For those reasons, I do not consider Anthony to be one of pro basketball's 50 or 75 greatest players--even though he was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team in 2021--but it is clear that he without question earned first ballot Hall of Fame selection after a career filled with high level accomplishments at the collegiate, professional, and international levels. 

Dwight Howard led the NBA in rebounding five times (2008-10, 2012-13), and ranked first in blocked shots twice (2009-10) while winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards (2009-11). He made the All-NBA First Team five straight times (2008-12) and he earned eight All-NBA Team selections overall. Howard ranks 11th in ABA/NBA history with 14,627 career regular season rebounds. During his prime he was the most dominant big man in the NBA, leading the Orlando Magic past LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2009 NBA Finals before losing to Kobe Bryant's L.A. Lakers. Howard posted a 13-11 career playoff series record, including helping the Lakers to win the 2020 "bubble title." Howard should have been selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, but it is fair to say that he is not the most popular person, and it is unfortunate that his lack of popularity likely played a role in denying him a well-deserved honor.

During Danny Crawford's 32 year NBA officiating career (1985-2017), he logged more than 2000 regular season games, 300 playoff games, and 30 NBA Finals games. He was selected to work in the NBA Finals--the highest honor for an NBA official--in each of his last 23 seasons. As an NBA fan during that entire period, I can say that whenever you saw that Crawford was officiating a game you felt confident that the game would be called well and that he would maintain control without losing his temper or calling unwarranted technical fouls. Crawford's NBA career began at the height of the Magic Johnson/Larry Bird years, which was also the twilight of Julius Erving's career and the start of Michael Jordan's career, and he was still officiating during the early years of Golden State's rise to the top of the league, so Crawford had an up close view of a lot of NBA history.

Mickey Arison, who is being inducted as a Contributor, bought the Miami Heat in 1995, and since that time the Heat have been one of the league's model franchises, capturing NBA titles in 2006, 2012, and 2013 while winning the Eastern Conference Finals seven times (2006, 2011-14, 2020, 2023). Arison is highly respected for his philanthropic contributions to the Miami community and beyond.

Billy Donovan has been a very good NBA coach--posting a .546 regular season career winning percentage--but his Hall of Fame credentials are based on his outstanding college record: 502-206 (.709 winning percentage) in 21 seasons (two at Marshall, followed by 19 at Florida), including nine straight NCAA Tournament appearances (and 14 overall), four Final Fours (2000, 2005-06, 2014), and back to back NCAA titles (2006-07). Though not relevant to his Hall of Fame selection, it should be noted that Donovan was also an excellent player at Providence who played one season in the NBA.

Team USA finished sixth in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, and settled for a bronze medal in the 2004 Olympics. Team USA's bronze medal performance in the 2006 FIBA World Championship required Team USA to earn qualification into the 2008 Olympics, an embarrassing situation for a country that should rightfully expect to dominate international basketball competitions. In The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events I explained that Team USA needed to improve defensively and to create better team chemistry. The addition of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd to the roster in 2007 solved both problems, and Team USA rolled to victory in the 2007 FIBA Americas Cup--Team USA's first gold medal in any FIBA event since 2003--before Team USA won Olympic gold in 2008. That 2008 gold medal-winning squad was dubbed "The Redeem Team," and is now the 14th team to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.

Labels: 2008 Team USA, Basketball Hall of Fame, Billy Donovan, Carmelo Anthony, Danny Crawford, Dwight Howard, Mickey Arison

posted by David Friedman @ 9:17 PM

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