20 Second Timeout

2023-24 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the fourth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the L.A Lakers and the New Orleans Pelicans earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2024 Play-In Tournament, I picked Philadelphia, Miami, the L.A. Lakers, and Golden State to emerge as qualifiers, so now my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, and 3-1 in 2024.

Before diving into my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the key stories from the 2023-2024 NBA season. 

The biggest story of the 2024 NBA season is the extent to which the 64-18 Boston Celtics lapped the field, finishing first in the Eastern Conference by 14 games while also finishing seven games ahead of the top two teams in the Western Conference. The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors--who set an NBA record by going 73-9 in the regular season--finished six games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference, and 16 games ahead of the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, who overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls posted a 72-10 record, finishing 12 games ahead of the Orlando Magic in the East and eight games ahead of the West-leading Seattle SuperSonics, who the Bulls defeated 4-2 in the NBA Finals. The 2024 Celtics are a historically great regular season team but--as the 2016 Warriors proved--historical regular season greatness does not guarantee winning a championship.

The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) in the past seven years but they not won an NBA title since defeating the L.A. Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. If the Celtics win the 2024 NBA championship then their 2017-2023 playoff results will be framed as part of their growth process--but if they fall short, then the narrative will be "Boston can't win the big one." 

The Celtics ranked second in scoring, second in rebounding, second in three point field goal percentage, second in defensive field goal percentage, fifth in points allowed, and eighth in field goal percentage. Their point differential (11.4 ppg) is 4 ppg better than the second ranked Oklahoma City Thunder, and ranks fifth all-time behind only the 1972 Lakers (12.3), the 1971 Bucks (12.3), the 1996 Bulls (12.2), and the 2017 Warriors (11.6); the four teams ahead of the Celtics each won the NBA title, and two of those teams (Bulls and Warriors) won the NBA title the next year as well. The Celtics led the league in three pointers attempted and in three pointers made, but their love affair with the trey may not be the best thing because heavy reliance on high variance three point shooting can be detrimental. Assuming that the Celtics are not stubborn enough or nervous enough to miss 27 straight three pointers in a playoff game, it will be very difficult to beat them four times in a seven game series.

The Celtics' 2024 regular season dominance has been fueled by the offseason additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. Holiday--a two-time All-Star and five-time member of the All-Defensive Team--played a key role for Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, and one wonders if the Bucks would have traded Holiday to Portland for Damian Lillard if they had known that Holiday would ultimately end up in Boston. One-time All-Star Porzingis impacts the game as a three level scorer, a rebounder, and a rim protector. Boston's starting five of MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White is the best quintet in the league.   

While the Celtics sailed smoothly through the regular season, their historic rival in the West had a much bumpier ride. For the fourth year in a row, LeBron James and Anthony Davis failed to lead the L.A. Lakers to one of the top six seeds in the Western Conference. This season, the Lakers posted a 47-35 regular season record overall, including a 6-5 record without James; they posted a 2-4 record without Davis. 

In my 2023 Playoff Preview, I looked back at the Lakers' performance in the 2021-23 seasons, and that analysis is relevant to the 2024 season as well:

In 2021, the Lakers only reached the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, while in 2022 the Lakers failed to even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. In 2023, James put up impressive individual numbers (28.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 6.8 apg), and he broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular season scoring record, but the Lakers were 30-25 when he played, which projects to just under 45 wins over an 82 game season: the point is that even with James on the court the Lakers did not look like a championship caliber team. The Lakers went 13-14 when James did not play, which projects to nearly 40 wins over an 82 game season. Thus, in the 2023 season James was worth about five "extra" wins, which is not the impact that one would expect from an MVP caliber player averaging nearly 30 ppg; historically, an MVP caliber player is worth at least 15 "extra" wins. 

Perhaps one reason that James' gaudy numbers did not correlate with team success is that James may be better than any other great player at stat padding. While it is true that James has proven capable of posting great individual numbers that correlate with team success--that is why he has won four championships--it is also true that he has an uncanny ability to post superficially impressive numbers that do not correlate with team success, and the 2023 season is a prime example of that.

This season, the Lakers beat the powerful Celtics in Boston without both James and Davis, and after that game I explained why James' gaudy individual numbers are deceptive:

The reality--and this is something that I have written about throughout James' stellar career--is that James often plays in a way that maximizes his personal statistics but does not necessarily maximize his team's winning chances. On the surface, that may seem like nonsensical "hate." I am not ignoring the indisputable facts that (1) James has been the best player on four championship teams and (2) James has authored some incredibly clutch playoff performances. There is no doubt that James has had a major impact on winning for each of the three franchises that employed him, as reflected by the fact that he led each franchise to at least one championship. Nevertheless, one cannot escape the impression that James is very conscious of his statistics and of how to shape narratives. Sometimes, he puts up big numbers after the outcome is no longer in doubt; always, he controls the ball and decides who will shoot the ball, which means he controls his points, his assists, and everyone's field goal percentage...

In short, James' talent often lifts his teams, but it also can suffocate his teammates. The Lakers played free and loose without James controlling the ball, and several players showed that they are capable of creating their own shots and playing solid defense. Does that mean the Lakers are better without James? Of course not. Those players are not conditioned mentally or physically to play that way for 82 games. However, the Lakers would benefit if James consistently played in a way that focused less on narrative and more on team success.

There are good reasons that many objective observers who understand the sport do not rank James ahead of Kobe Bryant, let alone Michael Jordan. James is one of the 10 greatest players of all-time, but the notion that he is "The Greatest" is largely a product of a public relations narrative that he has skillfully crafted with the help of media members whose careers have prospered largely because of their willingness to put forth that narrative; if you have followed the NBA for the past 20 years or so, then you know which reporters are providing most of the "scoops" about James, and you know that they are the same reporters who slavishly push the "LeBron is the GOAT" narrative.

There are limits to how much attention even James can garner during a season when his team struggled to stay in the top 10 in the 15 team West. The player who received the most attention this season was number one overall draft pick Victor Wembanyama, who averaged 21.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.9 apg, and 3.6 bpg. He led the league in blocked shots, ranked eighth in rebounding, joined the 5x5 Club, and fell just short of joining the 100/100 Club. Despite Wembanyama's productivity, the Spurs matched their anemic win total from the 2023 season (22). 

The Spurs tanked in order to increase their odds of being able to draft Wembanyama, so there is a delicious irony that their attempt to "tank to the top"--which has not worked for the 76ers or for any other team that has tanked in the past 40-plus years--did not result in even one more win. Most great players who eventually led their teams to titles proved to be worth 10, 15, or even 20-plus wins during their rookie seasons, so it will be interesting to see how many games the Spurs win in the next few seasons. Based on the history of NBA tanking, there is a strong probability that Wembanyama will either never lead a team to a title, or that he will win a title with a team other than the Spurs (most likely a team that has built a championship culture and then adds him as the final piece). I don't doubt that Gregg Popovich is an excellent coach, but it is fair to say that the post-Tim Duncan/Kawhi Leonard years have not added anything to his legacy.

Speaking of bad teams, the Detroit Pistons posted a league-worst 14-68 record, including an NBA-record 28 game losing streak. Call it the "Curse of Rodney Stuckey": Joe Dumars had a peculiar fascination with Stuckey, and the Pistons' descent into irrelevance can be directly linked to that obsession, because Dumars ran off three All-Star guards (Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Allen Iverson) without getting much in return in order to hand the keys of the car to Stuckey, who promptly drove the team into last place. The Pistons have reached the playoffs just twice since 2009, and have not won a playoff series since 2008. 

Although the Pistons are currently the worst of the worst, the NBA has more awful teams than usual, with six teams winning 25 games or less last season. A combination of tanking and talent dilution has made one fifth of the league an unwatchable mess while also inflating the win totals of the teams that are not awful. Maybe the 2024 playoffs will change my opinion, but right now I would not compare the 64 win Celtics with the teams from the 1980s and 1990s that won 64 or more games. The 2024 Celtics padded their win total by posting a 16-1 record versus the bottom six teams (Charlotte, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington).

Turning our attention from the ridiculous to the sublime, the regular season MVP debate/discussion tends to generate more heat than light.

I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league, with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player (for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player).

The historical standard is that an NBA regular season MVP must play in at least 85% of the scheduled games, which adds up to at least 70 games in the traditional 82 game season. The 2023-24 season is the first season for which the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement has required that players participate in at least 65 games to be eligible to win various awards, including regular season MVP. 

The consensus top five players this season (listed in alphabetical order, along with a blurb summarizing each player's candidacy) are Luka Doncic (scoring champion who nearly averaged a triple double), Anthony Edwards (explosive athlete/two-way player who kept Minnesota in contention even after Karl Anthony-Towns' injury), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (elite two-way player for West's number one seeded team), Nikola Jokic (led NBA with 29 triple doubles, nearly averaged a triple double), and Jayson Tatum (best player on the team with the best record). Two other players who are having MVP-caliber seasons statistically but may not finish in the top five are Jalen Brunson, whose big-time scoring exploits powered the Knicks to the second seed in the East, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ranked in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage.

For several years, I felt that Antetokounmpo was the best all-around player in the NBA, but I am not convinced that he is now the best all-around player or the most valuable. His defense is not as good as it used to be, and he also bears a lot of responsibility for how much the Bucks have fallen off since he led them to the 2021 championship: he was injured during the Bucks' first round loss as a number one seed last year, he will be limited by injury (if he can play at all) during the Bucks' first round series this year, and he no doubt played a significant role in the decisions to fire Coach Mike Budenholzer, trade Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard, hire Coach Adrian Griffin, and replace Griffin with Doc Rivers. In short, Antetokounmpo is no longer as well-rounded or reliable as he used to be, and it could be strongly argued that he has played a role in pushing the franchise in the wrong direction. He still deserves full credit for leading the Bucks to a championship--something that no MVP candidate this year other than Jokic has done--and he still deserves respect for how hard he plays, but he did do enough to earn a first place MVP vote this year.

I love the way that Brunson plays and I love his attitude/demeanor, but I am skeptical of the MVP candidacy of any player who is shorter than 6-5, because history has proven that--with very few exceptions--such players simply do not exert the dominant impact that their bigger peers do. If I can't see a player being the best player on a championship team then I have a hard time ranking that player as the regular season MVP. Now that the NBA has reinstated positional voting for the All-NBA Teams, I don't even see Brunson as an All-NBA First Team member, because those slots should go to Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander this year--and a good case could be made for Edwards over Brunson as well, but I would choose both Brunson and Edwards as the All-NBA Second Team guards this season.

Tatum's overall numbers this season are similar to his overall numbers when he finished sixth in MVP voting in 2022 and fourth in MVP voting in 2023. A top five finish feels about right for him; he did not magically become the league's best player just because his team acquired two All-Star caliber players and posted the league's best record. 

Edwards posted career-highs in scoring (25.9 ppg), assists (5.1 apg), and field goal percentage (.461). He has tremendous athletic gifts and could very well be a future MVP, but the commentators who are comparing him to Michael Jordan and anointing him as this year's MVP need to pump the brakes; he deserves to make the All-NBA Second Team for the first time, and we can leave it at that for now.

Gilgeous-Alexander finished fifth in MVP voting last year, and he posted comparable overall numbers this year--but the big difference is that he posted those numbers this year while leading a young team to the top seed in the Western Conference. Yes, like Tatum he benefited from his team acquiring good players--but Tatum's Celtics added All-Star veterans while the Thunder added unproven young players. I understand why Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get a lot of first place votes, but I am not yet convinced that he is better or more impactful than Doncic or Jokic.

Doncic won his first scoring title (career-high 33.9 ppg) while also ranking second in assists (career-high 9.8 apg) and averaging 9.2 rpg. Even in today's defense-optional era, those numbers are impressive. Doncic owns the second highest career playoff scoring average (32.5 ppg), and his playoff averages in other categories are comparable to his regular season averages, so he has demonstrated that the bright lights don't dim his game. His defense has evolved from terrible to no worse than solid. I rank Doncic second in this year's MVP race.

Last season, I thought that Jokic should have been selected as the regular season MVP. His dominant postseason performance--culminating in Denver's first NBA title and Jokic's first NBA Finals MVP--cemented his status as the league's best player, and Jokic added to his lengthy resume with an outstanding 2023-24 campaign: 26.4 ppg (10th in the league), 12.4 rpg (fourth in the league), 9.0 apg (third in the league), and .583 FG% (10th in the league). Jokic is not a big-time shotblocker or a defensive stopper, but he led the Nuggets in mpg (34.6) while the Nuggets ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage and sixth in points allowed. It is well-documented that the Nuggets play at an elite level when he is on the court and often struggle during his off-court minutes, so the numbers (and eye test) do not support the notion that he is a defensive liability. I would select Jokic as the 2024 regular season MVP, and I also expect that the official voters will select him as well.

One of the under the radar stories is that Jokic's Denver Nuggets avoided the championship hangover that affects many teams. They improved their regular season win total from 53 to 57 and they went 2-0 versus the Celtics. It is difficult to win back to back titles--the last team to do this was the Kevin Durant-led 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors--but the Nuggets have put themselves in good position to win a second title, and they have no reason to fear any team in the 2024 playoff field.

Here are my first round predictions:

Eastern Conference

#1 Boston (64-18) versus #8 Miami (46-36)

As discussed above, the Celtics were head and shoulders above the rest of the league this season, and on paper they look like one of the greatest teams of all-time. They are big and versatile, and they are deep enough, particularly considering that they have the league's best starting five. The only concerns are (1) they may be too reliant on three point shooting, and (2) in recent years they have had excellent regular seasons only to short circuit in the playoffs. Those concerns are unlikely to become serious considerations until at least the Eastern Conference Finals.

The 2024 Miami Heat are not the 2023 Miami Heat; this year's Heat have an anemic offense that will be even worse in the playoffs without the injured Jimmy Butler. Side note: the Heat's 112-91 rout of the Chicago Bulls sans Butler on Friday night after the Bulls defeated the Atlanta Hawks 131-116 in the Play-In Tournament demonstrates just how bad the Trae Young-led Hawks are.

The Celtics no doubt cannot wait to avenge last year's embarrassing playoff loss to the Heat, and the Heat do not have enough weapons to combat the powerful Celtics. Boston will win in four games.

#2 New York (50-32) versus #7 Philadelphia (47-35)

Jalen Brunson (career-high 28.7 ppg, career-high 6.7 apg) had an All-NBA caliber season and clearly established himself as the Knicks' best player even before Julius Randle suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Before this season began, no one would have predicted that the Knicks would have finished second in the East even with a fully healthy roster, so Brunson deserves a lot of credit for leading the Knicks to a second place finish despite the Randle injury (and injuries to Mitchell Robinson and O.G. Anunoby as well).

The Knicks ranked second in the league in points allowed but that is a little deceptive because of their methodical pace (they ranked 19th in scoring). They ranked just 15th in defensive field goal percentage, at least in part because they lack shot blocking (ranking 29th in that category). 

The notion that Tom Thibodeau exhausts/wears down his players by playing them for too many minutes is not supported by the numbers, at least this year. No Knick averaged more than 35.5 mpg, and only four Knicks averaged more than 30 mpg. Brunson ranked 14th in the league in mpg (35.4), and the next Knick among qualifiers for league leaders in mpg ranked 37th (Josh Hart, 33.4 mpg). Randle averaged 35.4 mpg in 46 games, which is hardly an outlandish workload. 

The 76ers' gaudy record with Joel Embiid in the lineup this season is not relevant, because Embiid has been clearly limited since his return from knee surgery; he is still capable of putting up solid numbers, but he lacks his normal explosiveness and power, and he is not in top physical condition. Embiid also has a history of playoff underperformance.

Trading disgruntled playoff choker James Harden to the L.A. Clippers gave Tyrese Maxey the opportunity to become a first-time All-Star, but Embiid at 75-80% plus young Maxey and a solid supporting cast is not enough to take down this gritty New York team led by Brunson. New York will win in six games.

#3 Milwaukee (49-33) versus #6 Indiana (47-35)

The Bucks have had an odd and disappointing season, but if Giannis Antetokounmpo had not suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the final three games of the season they still may have earned the East's second seed. Slipping to third would not necessarily have been fatal if Antetokounmpo made a full and quick recovery, but current reports indicate that he will miss at least the start of this series, which also suggests that even if he returns he will be operating at less than 100%. The Pacers have been a tough matchup for the Bucks even when the Bucks were at full strength, so with Antetokounmpo sidelined the Pacers have to be considered the favorites. The Pacers won the season series 4-1, and the Bucks needed a career-high 64 point performance from Antetokounmpo to avoid the 5-0 sweep.

It is not surprising that Damian Lillard's scoring declined by nearly 8 ppg after joining forces with Antetokounmpo, but it is concerning that his field goal percentage dropped from .463 to .424. One would have hoped that Lillard's shot selection and shooting percentage would improve with the opportunity to play with better players, but that has not been the case. Even more concerning than Lillard's declining offensive efficiency is that adding Lillard and subtracting Jrue Holiday has made the Bucks' perimeter defense atrocious: every guard looks at a matchup with the Bucks as a license to score with impunity. The Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton had an excellent season (20.1 ppg, league-leading 10.9 apg), but when he played against the Bucks he took his game to another level by averaging 27.0 ppg and 11.0 apg with shooting splits of .532/.375/.909.

The Pacers are a lousy defensive team--ranking 27th in points allowed and 30th in defensive field goal percentage--but without Antetokounmpo the Bucks may not be able to exploit the gaping holes in the Pacers' defense. Meanwhile, the Bucks had no answers this season for the Pacers' league-leading offense (123.3 ppg). It would not be shocking to see the Pacers score 140 points in a game versus the Bucks; they beat the Bucks 142-130 in their final meeting this season despite Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Khris Middleton each playing at least 32 minutes for the Bucks (something that rarely happened this season). I would not generally pick a lower seeded team that is horrible defensively but, for the reasons listed above, I predict that Indiana will win in six games.

#4 Cleveland (48-34) versus #5 Orlando (47-35)

Disgracefully, the Cavaliers tanked versus the Charlotte Hornets in the fourth quarter of the final game of the regular season in order to drop into this matchup--but the basketball gods may enact karmic retribution against the Cavaliers, who struggled with New York's physicality during the first round of the 2023 playoffs and will now have to contend with an Orlando defense that ranked fourth in the league in points allowed and fifth in steals.

Paolo Banchero won the 2023 Rookie of the Year award, and in 2024 he earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 22.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.4 apg. Seven Magic players averaged at least 21 mpg, and six of those players are 25 or younger. Gary Harris is the "old man" of that group at 29.

The Magic lack playoff experience, but most of the Cavaliers' players do not have much playoff experience, either. Cleveland's leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (26.6 ppg) has had some sensational playoff games, and he led the NBA in playoff scoring average (36.3 ppg) in 2020, but he missed 27 games this season and has not looked quite like his normal self since returning after suffering a knee injury. 

Cleveland ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in points allowed, but last season their defense was even better than that statistically before crumbling versus the Knicks. There is good reason to be skeptical about the Cavaliers' playoff chances until they prove otherwise by winning a series. I don't like the way that Cleveland intentionally backed into this matchup, but despite the misgivings noted above I predict that Cleveland will win in six games.

Western Conference

#1 Oklahoma City (57-25) versus #8 New Orleans (49-33)

It is well-documented that I oppose tanking because it violates the spirit of competition/rips off the paying fans. It is also well-documented that tanking does not work. The Thunder tanked for multiple seasons to build their current roster, so I feel strongly that what they did is not only bad for the sport but unlikely to lead to long-term success. That being said, the Thunder have been much better this season than I expected, and they are an excellent defensive team (ranking third in defensive field goal percentage), which is unusual for a young team that presumably has not yet developed a winning culture. 

Six Thunder players averaged at least 20 mpg, and each of those players is 25 or younger. The grizzled veteran of that quintet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will not turn 26 until July and he has already established himself as a legit MVP candidate who plays hard at both ends of the court. He led the Thunder in scoring (30.1 ppg), assists (6.2 apg), and steals (2.0 spg). 

Other than lack of experience, the Thunder's main weakness is rebounding (27th in the league). They may struggle in a seven game playoff series versus strong, physical teams, but their youth and athleticism can compensate to some extent.

The Pelicans lost to the L.A. Lakers in the Play-In Tournament but punched their ticket to the playoffs by beating the Sacramento Kings, 105-98. At 49-33, the Pelicans are one of the winningest eighth seeds of all-time, but they will be without the services of leading scorer (22.9 ppg) Zion Williamson for at least several weeks after Williamson injured his knee versus the Lakers. The scrappy Pelicans will post a good challenge for the inexperienced Thunder, but Oklahoma City will win in six games.

#2 Denver (57-25) versus #7 L.A. Lakers (47-35)

The Nuggets started the season 8-1, never lost more than three games in a row all season, and were consistently at or near the top of the Western Conference standings before finishing in a tie with the Thunder and landing in second place due to tiebreaks. Nikola Jokic had yet another MVP caliber campaign (as discussed above), and Jamal Murray played at an All-Star level (21.2 ppg, 6.5 apg) despite missing 23 games. Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope round out an imposing starting lineup that has an excellent blend of size, speed, athleticism, and shooting. The only other starting lineup in the league that can be compared to Denver's is Boston's. The Nuggets do not have great depth, but they won the 2023 title without having great depth, and in the playoffs depth is not as important as it is during the regular season as long as a team avoids injuries and major foul trouble.

The Nuggets own the Lakers, sweeping them in the 2023 Western Conference Finals and sweeping them 3-0 during the 2024 regular season. The Lakers shipped off their scapegoats (Russell Westbrook and Frank Vogel) and are still mired in mediocrity, consistently failing to finish in the top six in the West. All of the talk about how important it is to surround LeBron James with shooters ignores the fact that the Lakers finished eight out of 15 teams in the Western Conference standings despite ranking second in field goal percentage, sixth in scoring, and eighth in three point field goal percentage; the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title by attacking the paint on offense and defending the paint on defense, but this year's Lakers ranked 17th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed. The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage--and 21st in three point field goal percentage, a statistic that has little correlation with the Lakers' success during the LeBron James era.

We have seen nothing from either the Nuggets or the Lakers to indicate that the Lakers can beat the Nuggets four times in seven games. It is difficult to sweep anyone in the NBA playoffs, so even though the Nuggets swept the Lakers last year I predict that this year Denver will win in five games.

#3 Minnesota (56-26) versus #6 Phoenix (49-33)

For the past few years, TNT's Charles Barkley has called the Timberwolves "dumb as rocks" because of their frequent late game meltdowns, but this season the Timberwolves consistently played at an elite level, and they led the league in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Many commentators scoffed at the twin towers pairing of Rudy Gobert with Karl-Anthony Towns, but the reality is that size has always mattered in basketball and it still matters now. The Nuggets bludgeon opponents with their size, and the Timberwolves' roster was built by the same executive--Tim Connelly--who built the Nuggets' championship roster before moving to Minnesota.

Anthony Edwards is in the MVP conversation. Karl-Anthony Towns is the second option on offense, and he played well before suffering a knee injury but he looked rusty when he returned for the final two regular season games, including a 125-106 loss to the Suns on April 14. The Timberwolves ranked just 18th in scoring, so it is important for Towns to be at or near full strength.

The Suns represent Kevin Durant's latest attempt to build or join a "super team." He won two NBA titles and two NBA Finals MVPs after fleeing Oklahoma City to join a Golden State team that had already won an NBA championship; then Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden joined forces in Brooklyn, and now Durant goes into battle alongside Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Despite all of that star power, the Suns needed a tiebreaker to finish ahead of New Orleans and avoid falling into the Play-In Tournament. They have been inconsistent and injury-prone throughout the season. Could they put it all together and win a playoff series? Sure, that is possible, but I predict that Minnesota will win in six games.

#4 L.A. Clippers (51-31) versus #5 Dallas (50-32) 

Luka Doncic had another MVP-caliber season, and sidekick Kyrie Irving not only played better than he did last season but he was available for more games and he meshed better with Doncic. Doncic has torched the Clippers in two playoff series (31.0 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 8.7 apg in 2020; 35.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 10.3 apg in 2021), although the Clippers beat the Mavericks in six games in 2020 and in seven games in 2021. The Mavericks greatly benefited from the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.

Kawhi Leonard is a two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019), and if he is healthy and dominant then the Clippers could beat anyone in a playoff series--but Leonard has not played all of the games in a playoff series that his team won since the first round of the 2021 playoffs.

Russell Westbrook's energy and unselfishness have been very important for the Clippers. Last season, he averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games as the Clippers' starting point guard. He played well as the Clippers' starting point guard at the beginning of this season before graciously volunteering to accept a reserve role after the Clippers acquired James Harden.  

Beyond Leonard and Westbrook, there is little reason to trust the Clippers in a playoff series. There is a strong argument that Harden is the the most overrated MVP ever based on his annual playoff "concert tour" field goal percentages and his propensity for having more turnovers than field goals made in playoff games, a statistic that should be called a "Harden" after he did it three times during Philadelphia's seven game loss to Boston in last year's playoffs. Paul George dubbed himself "Playoff P," but his postseason resume is checkered, including three Conference Finals appearances but also a field goal percentage below .420 in nine of his 18 playoff series. 

If Leonard goes into "cyborg" mode then his greatness can offset Harden being Harden and George's fluctuating playoff field goal percentages, but I predict that Dallas will win in six games.      

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Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Boston-Cleveland, New York-Indiana, Oklahoma City-Dallas, and Denver-Minnesota.

I am not 100% convinced that Cleveland will beat Orlando, and I have no confidence that Cleveland can beat Boston barring extreme and unusual circumstances. The Celtics are a championship caliber team vying to establish their credentials as an all-time great team (if their 2024 playoff run matches their 2024 regular season excellence and culminates in winning a championship), while the Cavaliers are a solid playoff team at best. The Celtics will win in five games.

New York is a physical, defensive-minded team while Indiana is a run and gun team. The playoffs generally favor physicality and defense, so I pick New York to win in six games.

Young teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder rarely reach the Conference Finals during their first playoff run. Luka Doncic led Dallas to the 2022 Western Conference Finals, and Dallas' second option Kyrie Irving was very effective in a second option role for the 2016 NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers. I think that the playoff experience of Doncic and Irving will matter in this matchup, so I predict that Dallas will win a tough six game series. 

Denver is too big, too strong, and too smart for Minnesota, so I am taking Denver in five games.

Reaching the Eastern Conference Finals is old hat for Boston, but New York has not played in the Eastern Conference Finals since 2000. Boston has too much talent and too many matchup advantages, so I pick Boston to win in six games.

As much as Dallas improved after making their key midseason acquisitions, Denver is still too big and too talented. Denver will beat Dallas in six games in the Western Conference Finals.

The NBA Finals will feature Denver going for a repeat and Boston going for redemption after falling just short of gold so many times in the past few years. Boston has homecourt advantage and more overall talent, but Denver has Jokic, and it is becoming apparent that in this era having Jokic is the biggest advantage because of his triple impact as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. I see this series going the distance, with Jokic producing a triple double on the road as Denver obtains a hard-earned repeat championship.

******************** 

Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:

In my 2023-2024 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went five for eight in my 2023-2024 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: East 7/8, West 6/8
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8

That adds up to 117/152 in the East and 118/152 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .773.

Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:

2023: 9/15
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15

Total: 204/285 (.716)

At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 19 years I have correctly picked 19 of the 38 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 19 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.

I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 AM

13 comments

76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed

The Philadelphia 76ers do not have vintage Joel Embiid as the 2023 regular season MVP works his way into form after having knee surgery, but good enough Joel Embiid was sufficient for them to beat the Miami Heat, 105-104. The 76ers earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and the opportunity to face the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. Embiid scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, and dished for five assists, but he shot just 6-17 from the field and did not block a shot. His game lacks explosiveness and force, although he still is able to use his size and strength to make plays against smaller defenders. Nicolas Batum provided a huge lift off of the bench with 20 points while shooting 7-12 from the field, including 6-10 from three point range. Tyrese Maxey added 19 points and a team-high six assists, while Kelly Oubre Jr. was the only other 76er who scored in double figures (11 points, plus eight rebounds). 

Tyler Herro scored a game-high 25 points (including 16 in the fourth quarter) and passed for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 9-27 from the field. Jimmy Butler slipped in the first quarter and suffered a right knee injury that caused him to limp for the rest of the game. He finished with 19 points on 5-18 field goal shooting in 40 minutes, but it has been reported that Butler will have an MRI and may be out indefinitely after his knee tightened up as the game progressed. All-Star center Bam Adebayo hauled in a team-high 12 rebounds, but he scored just 10 points while looking undersized and overmatched despite Embiid's obvious current limitations. 

The Heat led 23-22 after the first quarter, and the Philadelphia boo birds emerged in full force as the 76ers sleepwalked through the second quarter. The Heat were up by as many as 14 points before settling for a 51-39 halftime advantage. Batum drilled three treys in the third quarter as the 76ers won that stanza 30-23 to narrow the deficit to 74-69 entering the fourth quarter. Embiid had 11 points, four rebounds, and two assists as the 76ers outscored the Heat 36-30 in the fourth quarter. The score was tied 96-96 with just 36 seconds remaining when Embiid dished to Oubre for a layup that became a three point play after Butler fouled Oubre. The 76ers led the rest of the way, closing out the game by hitting their last seven free throws (including the free throw from Oubre's three point play).

The up and down Heat have reached the NBA Finals in two of the past four seasons but have also relegated themselves to the Play-In Tournament for two consecutive years. They will play the Chicago Bulls on Friday night to determine the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls gained the right to play the Heat by beating the Atlanta Hawks, 131-116.

Coby White scored a game-high 42 points on 15-21 field goal shooting, outshining both of Atlanta's more celebrated guards. Nicola Vucevic added 24 points and a team-high 12 rebounds, while DeMar DeRozan had 22 points plus a team-high nine assists. Dejounte Murray scored 30 points and passed for six assists for the Hawks, while his backcourt mate Trae Young had 22 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, 10 assists, six turnovers, and a game-worst -27 plus/minus number. Young's first quarter performance was historically bad: one point, five turnovers, and a -18 plus/minus number while playing all 12 minutes. I understand that Young is recovering from a hand injury, but those numbers would be awful even if he played blindfolded with one arm tied behind his back, and ESPN's Richard Jefferson correctly pointed out that bad decision making was a much bigger issue than Young's hand.

The Chicago-Atlanta matchup was everything that I expected/feared would happen when the moveable object meets the resistable force: the Bulls raced out to a 40-22 first quarter lead, but only had a 73-67 halftime advantage. If Hubie Brown had done the color commentary for this game, he might have set a personal record for saying "Will you please...?" followed by "play defense," "pay attention to the cutters," "stop turning the ball over," "stop taking low percentage shots," and so forth. 

The Bulls reasserted control by winning the third quarter much the same way that they dominated the first quarter; this time, the margin was 37-25. The teams traded baskets in the fourth quarter until Young hit a meaningless three pointer at the 24.8 second mark; in the old CBA that shot would have mattered because it enabled the Hawks to "win" the fourth quarter 24-21, but here it just provided a fitting end to the Hawks' season with Young drilling a logo three to wrap a game that his team still lost by 15 points. 

Under normal circumstances, I would not give the Bulls much of a chance to beat the Heat in Miami in an elimination game, but if Butler is out of action then it may be tough for the anemic Heat offense to generate enough points--and the Heat would also miss Butler's leadership and defense, even though they went 13-9 without him during the regular season. Butler is a tough guy--I can think of several current players who are considered big name stars who would not have gutted out Wednesday night's game the way that he did--but once the next day swelling sets in and the MRI results are known the team may have no responsible choice other than shutting him down.

Although the Heat eliminated the Boston Celtics in last year's playoffs, that outcome seems highly unlikely even if Butler's knee is OK and the Heat send the Bulls packing; this Heat team is not as deep as last year's Heat, and this season's Celtics are much more talented than last year's Celtics while also appearing to be tougher and more focused.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Coby White, Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 12:56 AM

1 comments

Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed

The L.A. Lakers built an 18 point third quarter lead before surviving a furious New Orleans comeback to defeat the Pelicans 110-106 in the first game of the 2024 Play-In Tournament and secure the seventh seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (23 points) and assists (nine) while also grabbing nine rebounds, swiping three steals, and blocking two shots, but he shot just 6-20 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. It will be interesting to see if his poor shooting is an aberration, or if James is wearing down after playing more games (71) and logging more minutes (2504) than he has in any season since 2017-18. D'Angelo Russell scored 21 points and had a game-best +16 plus/minus number. Anthony Davis added 20 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. After the game, Lakers coach Darvin Ham mocked what he called the "insane asylum sources" that had declared that the Lakers should lose this game on purpose to avoid a playoff matchup with Denver.

Zion Williamson poured in a game-high 40 points on 17-27 field goal shooting while also snaring 11 rebounds. Williamson's floater tied the score at 95 with 3:19 remaining in the fourth quarter, but he came up lame after the play and was not able to play the closing minutes; he apparently suffered a left hamstring injury, the extent of which will not be known until after further examination. The Pelicans tied the score twice more down the stretch but never took the lead, and the Lakers sealed the win by making four straight free throws in the final 10 seconds. No Pelican other than Williamson scored more than 12 points in a game that was there for the taking if Brandon Ingram (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, -16 plus/minus number), C.J. McCollum (nine points on 4-15 field goal shooting, -17), or Jonas Valanciunas (four points on 1-7 field goal shooting, -13) had just been a little subpar instead of abysmal. The Pelicans outrebounded the Lakers 50-41, and outscored them in the paint 62-36 as the Lakers shot just .417 from the field. Looking at the boxscore, it is difficult to understand how the Lakers won, but they did enjoy advantages in three point field goals made (14-9) and free throws made (26-11), although the latter number is a bit skewed because the Pelicans had to intentionally foul near the end of the game.

Since joining the L.A. Lakers in 2018, LeBron James has led the team to one NBA title (2020) and one NBA Cup title (2024), but the Lakers have also failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference standings for each of the past four seasons. They lost in the first round in 2021, missed the playoffs entirely in 2022, and enjoyed a fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals after surviving the Play-In Tournament. Nevertheless, one can expect that the LeBron James p.r. machine will crank into high gear during the next few days, trying to convince the world that it is a great feat for James and Davis--honored as members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--to sneak into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Even though the NBA does not officially keep statistics for the Play-In Tournament games, it will not be too long before someone declares that James is the greatest player in Play-In Tournament history (without questioning why a player of his historical stature annually appears in the Play-In Tournament). Regardless of what you read or hear prior to the first game of the Lakers' first round series versus the Nuggets on Saturday night, don't be fooled into believing that barely beating a non-contending team in one game will somehow translate into winning a seven game playoff series against the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, who swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

The Pelicans will host the Sacramento Kings in a Play-Tournament game to determine the Western Conference's eighth seed. The Kings earned their way into that matchup by dismantling the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, 118-94. During the TNT pregame show, Charles Barkley said that the Kings would need a big game from Keegan Murray to make up for the absence of Malik Monk. Murray delivered a game-high 32 points as every Sacramento starter scored at least 15 points. De'Aaron Fox contributed 24 points and six assists, while Domantas Sabonis added 16 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.  One Play-In Tournament game win does not wipe out the disappointment from losing to the Warriors in a seven game first round series last year--but it is a step in the right direction for a Sacramento team that seemed to regress this season after an impressive 2023 campaign.

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 22 points for Golden State, but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He looked like an All-Star, not like a legend and a four-time NBA champion. Jonathan Kuminga (16 points) and Moses Moody (16 points) provided a lift off of the bench, but Draymond Green had little impact (12 points, six assists, three rebounds), and Klay Thompson was awful (0 points on 0-10 field goal shooting). 

The Warriors have had the Kings' number in recent years, so the fact that the Warriors could not muster up the necessary energy and effort to pull out an elimination game against the injury-depleted Kings speaks volumes. Barkley has said all season long that the Lakers and Warriors stink. The Lakers still have at least four games left in their season, but the Warriors have already had their TNT "Gone Fishin'" moment. The Warriors did not get much mileage out of having the NBA's highest payroll in 2023-24--paying $30.8 million to Chris "Greatest Leader in the NBA" Paul proved to be particularly wasteful--and one can expect some serious cost-cutting and roster upheaval in the wake of not just this loss but also a season that did not match the organization's lofty expectations.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Damontas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Keegan Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

14 comments

The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons

The NBA's public relations spin is that the Play-In Tournament added excitement to the final days of the 2024 regular season because most of the playoff seeding remained undetermined until the very end; the reality is that the Play-In Tournament diminished the importance of the regular season because a team can muddle through 82 games, win one or two Play-In Tournament games and have the same opportunity to advance in the playoffs as the teams that took the regular season seriously. It is sad that despite their huge guaranteed salaries the modern NBA players need so many extra incentives/gimmicks like the NBA Cup, the Player Participation Policy, and the Play-In Tournament to play hard, and it is disgraceful that when they are not provided extra incentives they produce travesties like the 2024 NBA All-Star Game.

This year's Play-In Tournament includes Miami visiting Philadelphia to determine the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and the L.A. Lakers visiting New Orleans to determine the seventh seed in the Western Conference. The eighth seeds in each conference will be determined after Atlanta visits Chicago, and Golden State visits Sacramento, with the winners of those games facing the losers of Philadelphia-Miami and New Orleans-L.A. respectively to lock up the final playoff spot in each conference.

It has become popular to view the Philadelphia 76ers as a legitimate threat to not only survive the Play-In Tournament but to then make a deep playoff run. That is a very optimistic view of a team that has a proven track record of playoff failures.

The 76ers solved a major problem by trading disgruntled playoff underachiever James Harden to the L.A. Clippers, but the advantage that they gained from getting rid of Harden was nullified because 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid missed 43 games, with most of his absences caused by a left knee injury that required surgery. The 76ers posted a 31-8 record when Embiid played, and a 16-27 record when he did not play. Unfortunately for the 76ers, Embiid has a history of (1) missing a lot of games due to injury and (2) not performing up to par in the playoffs. It should be emphasized that Harden's playoff choking is not the only reason that Embiid has never seen the Eastern Conference Finals without buying a ticket or watching on TV: Embiid has a 5-6 playoff series record, and he shot worse than .500 from the field in eight of those series. Not coincidentally, the 76ers won all three playoff series during which Embiid shot better than .500 from the field. Embiid's career playoff numbers (24.0 ppg, 10.9 rpg, .461 FG%, 2.8 apg, 1.8 bpg) do not look bad, but they are worse than his career regular season numbers (27.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, .504 FG%, 3.6 apg, 1.7 bpg).

The 76ers' team statistical rankings this season are almost meaningless because they played more than half of the season without Embiid. They are a very good team with Embiid, and a mediocre team (at best) without him. The 76ers are 7-0 since Embiid returned to action--and they even won the two games that he sat out--with Embiid averaging 30.4 ppg in his five appearances. However, Embiid has never been in top physical condition during his career, and he is far from being in top physical condition now. 

Side note: I am baffled by how often Embiid crashes to the floor despite being such a gifted athlete; I have played basketball for most of my life, and I would say that Embiid probably falls down more in one playoff series than I have fallen down in decades of playing competitive basketball. I am not sure if Embiid is flopping to draw fouls or just moving awkwardly, but he would be well advised to keep his huge body upright in order to avoid getting injured again.

The Miami Heat have been a baffling team for the past several years. They reached the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023 in addition to reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022, when they posted the Eastern Conference's best regular season record--but this is the second year in a row that they finished outside of the top six and thus fell into the Play-In Tournament. It does not seem as if Jimmy Butler and the Heat take the regular season very seriously--which contradicts all of the Heat's self-promotion about their unique "Heat culture"--but few teams have matched their recent postseason success. The Heat are anemic offensively (ranking 26th in scoring and 22nd in field goal percentage) and they get killed on the boards because they are undersized (ranking 26th in rebounding)

I predict that Embiid will lead the 76ers past the Heat in a home Play-In Tournament game, but it is unlikely that the 76ers will make much noise in the playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks have lost six games in a row and seven of their last 10 games. They are awful defensively--ranking 28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--and they have not accomplished much of note since their fluky run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Teams that are led by undersized guards who are averse to playing defense tend to not make much postseason noise. The Hawks led by Trae Young are very similar to the Portland teams led by Damian Lillard; Lillard's Trail Blazers made a fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals but the Trail Blazers have won just three playoff games since 2019--and after being traded from Portland to Milwaukee, Lillard has helped destroy Milwaukee's once stout defense. The Hawks will endure a playoff drought similar to Portland's until the Hawks either trade Young or else surround him with a deep supporting cast of defensive-minded players.

The Chicago Bulls did not have a great season, but they finished three games ahead of the Hawks and the Bulls went 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Bulls started the season 5-14, but played better after former All-Star Zach LaVine suffered a season-ending ankle injury. DeMar DeRozan averaged a team-high 24.0 ppg while leading the league in minutes played per game (37.8).

When the moveable object meets the resistible force, anything can happen, but I predict that the Bulls will beat the Hawks.

The L.A. Lakers feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, yet they failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference for the fourth straight season. Keep in mind that Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to the playoffs twice with Kwame Brown as his starting center, Smush Parker as his starting point guard, and the talented but inconsistent--to put it mildly--Lamar Odom as the Lakers' second best player. If not for the 2020 "bubble" NBA title, James' L.A. tenure would have to be viewed as a monumental failure from the standpoint of team success regardless of his high individual performance level--but the "bubble" title is a historical fact, and there are many great players who did not lead their teams to even one championship. The Lakers would be well served to remember and emulate how they won that title: they attacked the paint on offense, defended the paint on defense, and used their size to their advantage.

Much has been made of James' late career emergence as a high percentage three point shooter. While James deserves credit for improving this facet of his game, the Lakers are at their best when--to borrow a concept from chess--the threat of James shooting a three pointer is stronger than the execution. In other words, now that James has legit three point range opposing defenses have to guard him beyond the arc--but instead of settling for three pointers he should still attack the paint not only to take high percentage close range shots but also to draw fouls and to create easier shots for his teammates.

Davis is perhaps Embiid's top rival in the category of "regularly falling down hard for no apparent reason." Not coincidentally, Davis also is similar to Embiid in terms of missing a lot of games due to injury, although Davis broke form by playing in a career-high 76 games this season.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a solid team, and they have benefited tremendously from Zion Williamson playing in a career-high 70 games this season, but it would speak volumes about James and Davis if they fail to lead the Lakers past a team that no one should seriously consider to be a championship contender. I predict that the Lakers will beat the Pelicans, but not match last season's fluky run to the Western Conference Finals--and we know that the run was fluky because we have seen that over the course of a full season the vaunted "new look" Lakers sans scapegoats Russell Westbrook and Frank Vogel had to fight to finish eighth even with James and Davis avoiding injuries and eschewing load management.

The Golden State Warriors have at least three future Hall of Famers (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson) on their roster--and probably four, as Draymond Green will likely be voted in unless he does something so egregious before the end of his career that he becomes persona non grata--but the 2022 NBA champions finished 10th in the 15 team Western Conference. However, the Warriors closed the season strongly by winning eight of their last 10 games to earn a rematch with their opponent from the first round of the 2023 playoffs--but the rematch is in the Play-In Tournament, not the playoffs.

The Sacramento Kings finished only two games worse this season (46-36) than last season (48-34), but in the deep Western Conference they fell from all the way from the third seed last season to the ninth seed this season. They were terrible defensively last season (ranking 25th in points allowed and 29th in defensive field goal percentage), and not very good defensively this season (ranking 17th in points allowed and 21st in defensive field goal percentage). The Kings have dropped in the standings since Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk suffered a knee injury that will keep him out until the end of April, which means that he will not return this season unless the Kings make an extended playoff run. 

The Warriors needed a 50 point game seven masterpiece from Stephen Curry to eliminate the Kings from the 2023 playoffs, but such heroics will not be required for the Warriors to beat the Kings in the 2024 Play-In Tournament.

If my predictions are correct then Miami will host Chicago and New Orleans will host Golden State in the last chance segment of the Play-In Tournament. I expect Miami to defeat Chicago, and Golden State to beat New Orleans.

The NBA is happy because the Play-In Tournament adds six games to the schedule, with the corresponding bump in TV revenue and ticket sales. Let's hope that the games come even close to living up to the relentless hype provided by the league and its media partners. Chicago versus Atlanta is not a game that anyone would ask for (other than fans of those teams), but we can hope that the Bulls and Hawks will make it a game worth remembering and talking about, and we can likewise hope that all of the Play-In Tournament games feature playoff caliber basketball.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

2021

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 10:19 PM

5 comments

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2024 Class Includes Dick Barnett, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Doug Collins, Michael Cooper, Walter Davis, Herb Simon, and Jerry West

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2024 class includes 13 inductees, eight of whom have strong NBA ties: players Dick Barnett, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Michael Cooper, and Walter Davis, plus contributors Doug Collins, Herb Simon, and Jerry West. West joins Lenny Wilkens as the only three-time inductees, as West was previously inducted as a player and as a member of the 1960 Team USA Olympic team. This year's other five inductees are Seimone Augustus, Harley Redin, Bo Ryan, Charles Smith (a Louisiana high school coach, not the former NBA player) and Michelle Timms. At 20 Second Timeout I focus on the NBA game, but I will note that Timms is one of my favorite female basketball players of all-time (along with Cynthia Cooper, who I interviewed during the 2006 NBA All-Star Weekend). Timms was a heady, scrappy player whose impact on winning was greater than her individual numbers might suggest.

The eight inductees who are connected with the NBA have impacted basketball from the 1950s through today.

During the 2019 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Barnett narrated a powerful tribute to his school--Tennessee A&I--and his college coach, John McClendon. Barnett led Teneessee A&I to three straight NAIA championships (1957-59) before enjoying a successful 14 season NBA career that included winning two NBA titles with the New York Knicks (1970, 1973) and earning one NBA All-Star selection (1968). Barnett averaged a career-high 23.1 ppg in the 1965-66 season, and he finished his career with 15,358 points (15.8 ppg).

Billups won the 2004 NBA Finals MVP as his Detroit Pistons defeated the L.A. Lakers, who had won three straight championships (2000-02) with the powerful Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant duo leading the way. He earned the nickname "Mr. Big Shot" because of how often he rose to the occasion in clutch situations. Billups ranks sixth in ABA/NBA history in free throw percentage (.897). Billups was not a dominant player or a perennial MVP candidate, but he earned five All-Star selections, three All-NBA selections, and two All-Defensive Team selections. Also, every NBA Finals MVP who is eligible for Hall of Fame induction has been inducted except for Cedric Maxwell.

Carter holds the record for most ABA/NBA seasons played (22), breaking the mark of 21 previously held by Moses Malone (19 NBA seasons, two ABA seasons), Robert Parish, Kevin Willis, and Dirk Nowitzki. After Carter retired, I analyzed his Hall of Fame candidacy:

Should Carter be selected as a Hall of Famer? The answer to that question depends on how you think about the Hall of Fame. If you think that the Hall of Fame should only welcome the absolute best of the best, then you would likely think that Carter is not worthy. Carter is not one of the 50 greatest players of all-time, and may in fact not be one of the top 100 greatest players of all-time. However, if you think that the Hall of Fame should welcome players who played at a high level for an extended period even if they never reached MVP level then Carter easily meets that standard. Carter was no worse than a top 20-25 player for an eight to 10 year period, which is excellent peak value. He then spent an even longer period as a solid rotation player; those final seasons lowered his career per game averages, but should Carter's Hall of Fame resume be downgraded because he had great longevity compared to his peers whose bodies failed them at a younger age, or who were not able to adjust to a lesser role in order to stay in the league? Carter proved that he was a coachable player who was willing to help younger players, and he proved that there was more to his game than just eye-popping leaping ability. Carter's role in elevating (pun intended) pro basketball in Toronto, and his iconic dunks (both in games and in the Slam Dunk Contest) are intangibles that bolster his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Cooper won the 1987 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he made the All-Defensive Team for eight straight seasons (1981-88), including five First Team selections (1982, 1984-85, 1987-88). He was a key member of all five Showtime Lakers championships teams (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88). Cooper was a prototype for what is now called a "3 and D" player; in addition to his defensive prowess he ranked in the top 10 in three point field goal percentage three times (1984, 1986-87), and he twice ranked second in the league in three point field goals made, albeit with numbers that do not look impressive in today's NBA (38 in 1984, 89 in 1987).

However, while Billups fits the Hall of Fame profile as a Finals MVP and multiple-time All-Star and Carter was a top 20-25 player for an extended time, Cooper's resume lacks such credentials. Thus, Cooper's induction raises more questions about what it means to be a Hall of Famer: it is one thing to determine that players such as Billups and Carter deserve Hall of Fame induction, but if Cooper--who never made the All-Star team, and never averaged more than 12 ppg, 6 apg or 4.5 rpg in a season--is a Hall of Famer then where is the line drawn? Should Robert Horry and Bruce Bowen be inducted as well? This is not meant to diminish the value that Cooper, Horry, and Bowen provided to multiple championship teams; the point is that at no time during their playing careers did any credible analyst seriously consider them to be Hall of Famers. With very few exceptions, Hall of Fame status meant, at a minimum, playing at an All-Star level for a sustained period. Cooper, Horry, and Bowen were tremendous role players who played alongside multiple players whose Hall of Fame credentials are beyond reproach, and those first ballot Hall of Famers likely could have won championships with other supporting casts, but one cannot picture Cooper, Horry, or Bowen being the first, second, or third best player on a championship contender.

I am not saying that Cooper should not be a Hall of Famer, and I am not trying to rain on his parade, but I am saying that the criteria for Hall of Fame induction should be clarified; the criteria seem to have evolved or shifted.

Davis was known as "The Greyhound" because of his graceful and smooth playing style. He won the 1978 Rookie of the Year award over Hall of Famer Bernard King, and Davis finished fifth in MVP voting that season as well. He earned two All-NBA Second Team selections (1978-79), and he was a six-time All-Star (1978-81, 1984, 1987). Prior to his NBA career, he was an excellent college player at North Carolina and an Olympic gold medalist in 1976.

Collins earned four All-Star selections in his injury-plagued eight season NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers before compiling a 442-407 record as an NBA head coach with Chicago, Detroit, Washington, and Philadelphia. He also established himself as one of the premier color commentators on NBA and FIBA telecasts. 

Herb Simon has owned the Indiana Pacers longer than any other owner has owned a team in NBA history. He co-owned the team with his brother Melvin from 1983 until Melvin died of cancer in 2009. Under Simon's ownership, the Pacers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals eight times (1994-95, 1998-2000, 2004, 2013-14) and the NBA Finals once (2000).

West is a Pantheon-level player who also coached the L.A. Lakers for three seasons (1977-79) before enjoying one of the most accomplished front office careers in NBA history, building Lakers teams that won eight NBA titles (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88, 2000-02); although West left the Lakers after the 2000 season, it is fair to say that the Lakers would not have won their 2001 and 2002 championships had West not brought Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant to L.A. West won the Executive of the Year award twice (1995 with the Lakers, 2004 with the Memphis Grizzlies). The dust jacket to Roland Lazenby's Jerry West biography asserts that West is "a man who has done more to shape basketball than anyone on the planet."

Labels: Basketball Hall of Fame, Chauncey Billups, Dick Barnett, Doug Collins, Herb Simon, Jerry West, Michael Cooper, Vince Carter, Walter Davis

posted by David Friedman @ 8:44 PM

7 comments

Sharpshooting Bucks Take Down Defenseless Suns, 140-129

The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 140-129 on Sunday even though the Suns were at full strength while the Bucks were missing two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was a late precautionary scratch due to lingering hamstring soreness. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 31 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high/career-high tying 16 assists. Bobby Portis matched Lillard with 31 points, shooting 13-20 from the field and also snaring a game-high 10 rebounds. Portis made all five of his three point shots. Khris Middleton returned to the lineup after missing 16 games with an ankle injury, and he had a major impact, scoring 22 points and dishing for seven assists in just 25 minutes. The Bucks set season highs for three point field goals made (24) and points scored in a half (82) while also tying the NBA record for three point field goals made in a half (18). Their 140 points is the most that they have scored since Doc Rivers took the head coaching reins shortly before the All-Star Game.

Bradley Beal led the Suns with 28 points while passing for seven assists, Grayson Allen added 25 points and a team-high eight assists, and Devin Booker had 23 points, a team-high nine rebounds, and six assists. Kevin Durant entered the game needing 20 points to surpass Shaquille O'Neal on the all-time scoring list, but he finished with just 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, though he did have a strong floor game (nine rebounds, four assists, three steals, two blocked shots, and just one turnover in a game-high 41 minutes).

This rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals did not feel like a rematch not only because of Antetokounmpo's absence but also because Booker is the only player or coach remaining from Phoenix' 2021 squad. It is amazing how quickly things change in the NBA, even for franchises that have been successful.  

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC. His most recent telecast was last Sunday when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the New York Knicks 79-73 in the NBA's lowest scoring game since 2016. Brown's pregame remarks focused on Middleton and Durant. Brown noted that even though Middleton is only averaging around 14 ppg this season he is a proven 20 ppg scorer who can also play the point guard role during crunch time minutes. Brown commented that Durant is so good that he makes scoring look easy, and he pointed out how Durant uses his length to create space to launch uncontested shots. 

Lillard is having a good season by conventional standards, but his numbers are below his career averages in several key categories, including PPG, FG%, and 3FG%. He played poorly in his previous two games, scoring just 27 points on 9-28 (.321) field goal shooting, but he understood the assignment with Antetokounmpo out of action: score efficiently while creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Lillard scored nine first quarter points, but even more importantly he had six assists and no turnovers. Portis led the Bucks with 12 first quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting. 

The Suns jumped out to a 9-3 lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Bucks led 39-36 and they never trailed again. The Bucks shot 15-24 from the field (.625) in the first quarter and the Suns were not far behind that blazing pace, shooting 14-25 (.560). Brown called the Bucks a "slow defensive recovery team," and added, "You can see early in this game that the defensive end off of the dribble is going to be a problem for Milwaukee." 

Brown amplified his pregame comments about Middleton's importance to the Bucks, calling him "A joy to watch," and praising him as a third scoring option who is comfortable being the second or even first option in clutch situations, which takes pressure off of Antetokounmpo and Lillard. 

Brown, who made his mark as a defensive-minded coach, described the defense in this game as so bad "it's almost outrageous," specifically noting that on many plays a defender was not within four or five feet of the shooter. Brown pointed out that the Bucks' strategy was to trap Booker and Durant out front while playing zone behind the traps.

After Portis made a three pointer from the left wing in the second quarter, he shouted, "That’s for you, Hubie!" Portis gave a similar shoutout to Brown during Milwaukee's 119-98 win over Philadelphia on Sunday February 25. Brown loves Portis' game, and it is nice to see a player who is far too young to remember most of Brown's coaching and broadcasting careers demonstrating such respect for one of the legends of the game.

The Bucks led 82-60 at halftime, mainly because of their record-setting three point shooting, led by Portis' 25 points on 10-13 field goal shooting (including 5-5 from three point range). Brown mentioned that the Bucks shot 2-2 from the free throw line during the first half, and said that this is because the Bucks were "shooting at will in wide open areas." The Suns' defense was so bad that they were not even close enough to the Bucks to foul them, let alone hinder or stop them. 

Brown said that the Suns should approach the second half with the mindset of cutting 4-5 points off of the lead every six minutes. The Suns stuck to that blueprint quite well, helped by the nature of the NBA today: the three point shot is a high variance play, and overuse of the three point shot is a major reason that NBA games so often feature big leads followed by big comebacks. In this game, the Bucks led by as many as 25 points in the second half before the Suns used a 32-13 rally to trim the margin to 100-94 with 1:30 remaining in the third quarter; in less than eight minutes, the Suns transformed a blowout into a potential win. The Bucks quickly built their lead back up to 15 points, but had to withstand one more Phoenix surge that trimmed the deficit to 122-115 with 6:17 left in the fourth quarter. The Suns made their run by utilizing a smaller, more aggressive lineup featuring Durant as the only player taller than 6-7.

Although the Suns outscored the Bucks 35-31 in the fourth quarter, overall this season the Suns have been awful in the final stanza, posting the fifth worst fourth quarter scoring margin in NBA history and blowing 10 fourth quarter leads. Brown attributes the Suns' fourth quarter struggles this season to high turnovers and low field goal percentage.

After the Bucks sealed the win in the closing moments, Brown's broadcast partner Dave Pasch noted that Lillard is the first player in Bucks' history to have at least 30 points and at least 15 assists in the same game. Brown replied that he was fortunate to coach great Milwaukee players including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge. Brown said that it is important to remind younger viewers that Robertson averaged 30-10-10 in his first five NBA seasons. "That is the impression he made," Brown emphasized. Brown is correct, and in fact Robertson averaged 30.4 ppg, 10.7 apg, 10.0 rpg in his first six NBA seasons. Brown respects the players in today's NBA and he praises Lillard's game when warranted, but Brown did a great job of making it clear that one 30-15 game is not equivalent to averaging 30-10-10 for several seasons in a row.  

This game reflected the strengths and weaknesses that both teams have displayed throughout the season: the Bucks are potentially an offensive powerhouse, but they need Antetokounmpo on the court to provide paint presence at both ends of the court; the Suns' Durant-Booker-Beal trio can be lethal on offense, but collectively the Suns provide little defensive resistance. 

Labels: Bobby Portis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hubie Brown, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM

12 comments

76ers Beat Knicks 79-73 in Lowest Scoring NBA Game Since 2016

The Philadelphia 76ers defeated the New York Knicks 79-73 on Sunday night despite being without the services of injured All-Stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Embiid has missed the last 18 games while recovering from knee surgery, while Maxey has been out for four games because he is in the concussion protocol. The Knicks played without All-Star Julius Randle, who has missed 18 straight games with a dislocated shoulder. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the 76ers with 18 points while also grabbing 10 rebounds and swiping three steals. Buddy Hield (16 points, seven rebounds) and Paul Reed (13 points, seven rebounds) made important contributions off of the bench, while Tobias Harris added 11 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 19 points and passed for a game-high eight assists, but he shot just 6-22 from the field. Donte DiVincenzo had 15 points on 6-17 field goal shooting, and Bojan Bogdanovic (10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer.

This is the first NBA game in which both teams scored fewer than 80 points since January 6, 2016. The Knicks shot just 26-80 (.325) from the field and they committed 21 turnovers, eight more than their per game average. The Knicks were particularly bad from three point range (9-40, .225) and--like many teams in the modern NBA--they kept firing away from long range unconcerned about their airballs and bricks; it is puzzling that so many NBA teams do not have a backup plan for games during which they just cannot make three pointers.  

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ESPN, and this is the fourth 76ers game for which Brown has provided color commentary since February 23; his most recent telecast was when the 76ers defeated the Mavericks 120-116 on Sunday March 3, and prior to that he did the color commentary when the Bucks topped the 76ers 119-98 on Sunday February 25, and when the 76ers beat the Cavaliers 104-97 on Friday February 23.

During his pregame remarks, Brown noted that Brunson is a three level scorer (three point line, midrange, in the paint), and he said that he is happy that Brunson was rewarded for his hard work by making the All-Star team for the first time. Brown mentioned that Harris is a versatile player and he said that Harris' contributions are critically important while Embiid and Maxey are sidelined. Brown concluded that the pressure is on for both of these teams to maintain their position in the standings by not losing to sub-.500 teams.

When the game began, Brown pointed out that the 76ers had two point guards in the starting lineup--Kyle Lowry and Cameron Payne--to control the tempo and try to get easy fast break scoring opportunities. Brown observed that neither of those point guards checked Brunson; instead, the 76ers assigned that task to the bigger and more athletic Oubre.

Brown singled out Harris' excellent first quarter--six points, five rebounds--as the teams played to a 15-15 tie after the first 12 minutes. The 76ers shot 7-24 (.292) from the field, while the Knicks shot 6-18 (.333) and had more turnovers (seven) than field goals made--the rare team "Harden" (the statistical category denoting a player--or, in this case, a team--accumulating more turnovers than field goals made). Brown said that the 76ers were struggling to score against New York's active, switching defense. He also mentioned throughout the game how much he loves Reed, who he described as a "tough guy."

The Knicks posted another "Harden" in the second quarter, again with seven turnovers and six field goals made, and the 76ers outscored them 22-16 to take a 37-31 halftime lead as the teams combined for the NBA's lowest scoring half this season. Brown provided his usual concise, on point scouting reports on various players, chiding the Knicks that they must jam Hield because Hield is always looking to shoot, and praising Oubre as "a midrange player who wants the contact." Brown said that the 76ers did a terrific job forcing Brunson to take tough, contested shots while also cutting down his passing angles. I love Brunson's attitude and work ethic, and there is no denying how productive he has been during his career, but it must be a little disconcerting for Knicks' fans to see how much he can be bothered by size, which is often the downfall of undersized guards--particularly during postseason play, when the best teams often either have big guards or else will cross-match to nullify a potent but undersized guard.

Beth Mowins on the play by play mentioned that ESPN Analytics predict that both teams will maintain their current position in the standings. Brown quipped, "Does that mean we don't have to play the remaining games?" Brown favored the use of meaningful statistics--including point differential--long before anyone talked about "advanced basketball statistics," but he does not go all-in on the numerical driven nonsense spewed by many analysts and commentators who lack his ability to understand a basketball game by watching with an educated eye.

During the third quarter, ESPN showed a graphic of the top five single season scorers in Knicks' history: Bernard King (32.9 ppg in 1984-85), Richie Guerin (29.5 ppg in 1961-62), Carmelo Anthony (28.7 ppg in 2012-13), Patrick Ewing (28.6 ppg in 1989-90), and Carmelo Anthony (27.4 ppg in 2013-14). Brunson averaged 27.2 ppg this season prior to Sunday night's game. Brown coached the Knicks from 1982-86, so he had a close view of King's most dominant seasons--a 26.3 ppg masterpiece in 1983-84 when the Knicks pushed the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, followed by a league-leading 32.9 ppg in a 1984-85 season cut short by a devastating knee injury that kept King out of action until 1987. King eventually became the first player to make the All-Star team with a totally reconstructed knee. Brown shared poignant memories of how King injured his knee in 1985 while doing a chasedown block of Reggie Theus in Kansas City. Mowins quietly commented that the worst moments are sometimes more memorable for coaches than the highlight moments. 

As the teams slogged their way through a 42-42 second half, Brown said of Harris, "They need him to get going. They need him to not be bashful." It is often frustrating to watch Harris; he seems to have first option level talent, but despite his size, athletic ability, and shooting skill he tends to drift through games instead of placing his imprint on the action. 

One does not need to be a basketball expert to diagnose New York's problems during this game--too many turnovers combined with wretched three point shooting--but Brown managed to state the obvious without beating viewers over the head with it; we could all see what was happening without someone like "Screamin' A" Smith rupturing our eardrums while confusing decibel levels with IQ points, as if raising the former corresponds with demonstrating a high number of the latter.

Brown does not harp on officiating, but he made an observation that he has made in previous games this season: players have difficulty figuring out how to play when the officiating is inconsistent regarding what is a foul. Coaches and players have criticized officiating forever, but it seems like the overall quality of officiating has declined in recent years. 

This game is not destined to be rebroadcast as an "instant classic," but Brown once again provided a master class in how to analyze a game without screaming, without citing numbers of doubtful relevance or value, and without making it seem like the game is a branding opportunity for the commentators as opposed to entertainment for the viewers.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Kelly Oubre Jr., New York Knicks, Paul Reed, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 2:01 AM

6 comments

Caitlin Clark is a Great Player, but She did not Break Pete Maravich's Division I Career Scoring Record

Caitlin Clark is a tremendous basketball player. She has established herself as one of the greatest female college basketball players of all-time, and there is every reason to believe that she will be a great professional player as well. Women's basketball is better than it has ever been, and Clark is one of the players who is leading the way.

However--contrary to recent reports--Clark is not the all-time Division I career scoring leader, because Division I exists in two separate categories. There is a women's Division I career scoring record (that is the one that Clark broke). Clark did not break the record set by "Pistol Pete" Maravich, who scored 3667 points in men's Division I. I say this not just because Maravich set his record in three varsity seasons while averaging 44.2 ppg in 83 games, compared to Clark averaging 28.3 ppg in 130 games in four seasons (though I would separately argue that there should be a three year Division I record and a four year Division I record because in Maravich's era by rule it was not possible to play four varsity seasons); I say this because Maravich played a different sport: men's basketball and women's basketball are two different sports, and to suggest otherwise is to deny reality. As great as Clark is, it is doubtful that she could start for any Division I men's team, let alone come close to averaging 28.3 ppg while playing versus Division I men. That is not a knock against Clark. There are biological differences between men and women; men tend to be bigger, stronger, and faster, and that is the reason that most sports--particularly at the elite level--have a men's category and a women's category. 

There seems to be a notion that comparing Clark to Maravich somehow elevates the women's game, but anyone with sense understands the obvious differences between men and women. Keeping men's records separate from women's records reflects the reality of those differences, and underscores the value of having two fully funded, separate leagues. Also, having separate records enables fans to celebrate the accomplishments of all of the great players in both sports. What if at some point the artificially combined records included only one woman in the top 10, and the other nine players were men? Then, instead of having two top 10 lists showcasing the scoring prowess of the best players in each sport, the feats of other women players would be forgotten. By the same token, in sports where it is unlikely that women would ever crack the combined top 10 (such as sprinting), it would not be right to merge the records, either.

It should further be noted that Clark is not even the career scoring leader in the women's college game. That distinction belongs to Pearl Moore, who played in the Association for Intercollegiate Athletics for Women (AIAW) at a time when women's basketball was not an NCAA sport. The NCAA does not acknowledge statistics from prior to 1982, much like the NBA does not officially count ABA statistics; both stances are historically and morally wrong. 

Those who seek to promote women's sports should focus on persuading the NCAA to admit that women's college basketball did not begin when the NCAA belatedly joined the party in 1982; instead of comparing Clark to Maravich, advocates for women's sports should compare Clark to Moore and insist that Moore receive full credit for her accomplishments during an era when women had very limited opportunities to play sports in general and basketball in particular.  

Recent attempts to blur the distinction between men's records and women's records do not uplift the women's game; this is not only a false equivalence, but it subliminally suggests that a women's record only matters in comparison to whatever the men's record is. Clark's career scoring numbers did not become more significant when her total in women's play surpassed Maravich's total in men's play. A cynic could wonder if blurring the distinction between men's records and women's records is a prelude for suggesting that separate men's sports and women's sports are not needed at all--and that would not benefit women at all, but we already see this happening with people who are biologically men petitioning for the right to compete as women against biological women. The notion that there are no biological differences between men and women threatens to undo many of the gains that women have made in recent decades toward obtaining equal rights and equal opportunities; it is puzzling that more feminists do not seem to understand this. A more authentic feminist position would be to assert that women's sports have intrinsic value without being compared to or merged with men's sports.

It should not be necessary to say this, but I want to emphasize again that I am not diminishing what Clark has accomplished. It should be obvious that I am praising her as one of the greatest women's college basketball players of all-time. I am a "girl Dad" as the current parlance puts it, and I encourage my daughter Rachel to play rated tournament chess--she has exclusively played in co-ed events up to this point--in addition to playing basketball and any other sport that interests her (including swimming, ice skating, and gymnastics). I support girls' sports and women's sports, and I believe that those sports have intrinsic merit without being compared to boys' sports and men's sports; of course, when a female successfully competes head to head with males--as Judit Polgar did for many years in world-class open chess tournaments--that should be celebrated, as any great sports accomplishment should be celebrated.

Labels: Antoine Davis, Caitlin Clark, NCAA, Pete Maravich

posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM

31 comments