20 Second Timeout

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now

The annual publication of Lindy's Pro Basketball is a happy milestone for basketball fans because that means the NBA season is just around the corner. The 2024-25 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Mike Ashley recaps the major off-season stories), "The Brunson Burner" (Mark Medina profiles Jalen Brunson), "Here Comes the Cash" (Michael Bradley details the implications of the NBA's big new broadcasting deals), "Edwards Learns His Own Hard Lessons" (Mark Medina discusses Anthony Edwards' emergence as a star), "Keeping the Faith" (Lyn Scarborough demonstrates how Jonathan Isaac is making a difference), "NBA Report Card" (Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman scouts the 2025 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Mike Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby looks back at how NBA arenas have evolved).

I wrote six team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, the end of the "Splash Brothers" era, Dejounte Murray, Chet Holmgren, why "Tanking to the Top" is a myth, and the Spurs' playoff prospects after tanking to obtain Victor Wembanyama.

This is the 16th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 5:33 PM

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Attorney Roy E. Brownell II Makes the Historical, Logical, and Moral Case for the NBA to Officially Count ABA Statistics

For over 20 years, I have insisted that ABA Numbers Should Also Count. I noted that--among other things--the list of Julius Erving's 40 point games is incomplete without including his ABA statistics, Julius Erving still holds the Nets' franchise single game scoring record, and Erving should be acknowledged by the NBA and its media partners as a member of the elite 30,000 point club.

In Setting the Record Straight: Why the NBA Needs to Officially Adopt ABA Statistics, 76 Ark. L. Rev. (2024), attorney Roy E. Brownell II articulates detailed, powerful, and multi-pronged historical, logical, and moral arguments regarding why the NBA's record book should officially include ABA statistics. His 87 page article deserves to be read in full--and should be required reading for NBA Commissioner Adam Silver--but it is important to outline the framework of Brownell's arguments so that the general public understands why this is such an important issue. Perhaps a groundswell of public opinion favoring the inclusion of ABA statistics in the NBA's record book is what it will take to fix a wrong that has existed for nearly 50 years.

Brownell begins by noting that when other major sports leagues merged they also merged their statistics, citing the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 and the combination of the American League and National League into Major League Baseball in 1903. Thus, both history and logic support the notion that when leagues merge their statistics should be combined and granted equal status. 

Brownell bases the moral case on three prongs:  

1) Black players had a significant impact on the ABA, so erasing the ABA's statistics also erases the story of that impact. 

2) In 2022, the NBA and National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) agreed to provide additional pension benefits to ABA players, in essence acknowledging the ABA's major league status.

3) The NBA makes money by selling products with ABA logos, thus benefiting from the league's rich historical legacy while simultaneously refusing to officially recognize the ABA's statistics. 

Brownell demonstrates that the modern game of basketball is in many ways built on the foundation laid by the ABA. Brownell provides a detailed discussion of the extent to which the NBA profits from the ABA without officially recognizing the ABA's statistics. Here, he summarizes the key points (footnotes omitted):

By officially acknowledging the dissolved league's statistics, the NBA would formally recognize that the ABA left a major impact on the surviving league in numerous interrelated ways: (1) contributing to a spike in interest in the NBA; (2) driving widespread acceptance of dunking and individual play; (3) pushing the NBA to adopt the three-point line; (4) moving the emphasis of the game from the post to the wing; (5) influencing the location of NBA franchises; and (6) providing new financial and marketing opportunities for the NBA. Reflected former NBA great Walt Frazier, in today's game, "The whole NBA is the ABA...[A]ll we got to do is color the ball red, white and blue." George Karl, longtime NBA coach and veteran of both leagues, expressed similar sentiments. "[T]he way the game is played
today is very ABA-ish."

Brownell points out that the NBA and its teams have conducted marketing promotions when certain players have reached career milestones that include ABA statistics (including Dan Issel and Julius Erving joining the 20,000 point club), yet the NBA's official position is that those players did not achieve those career milestones. Brownell quotes Bill Livingston regarding the NBA's shameful hypocrisy:

My, how sagging attendance can change management's viewpoint. In the past, the 76ers, with all the haughty disdain of an old-line NBA team, treated records set in the old American Basketball Association as something darn near fraudulent. But the Sixers, trying to hype their gate by any means possible, have started trumpeting a 20,000-point night for Julius Erving...Only catch is, 11,662 of Dr. J's points came in the ABA. The old-line clubs won't recognize [ABA records]...but, when a few bucks can be made, it is apparently a different story.

The ABA originated the Slam Dunk Contest and the concept of All-Star Weekend (as opposed to just playing an All-Star Game without having other side events). The ABA helped popularize the three point shot, which the NBA began using in 1979 (three years after the ABA-NBA merger). The NBA has profited greatly from All-Star Weekend and the three point shot, so it is morally wrong to profit from the ABA's legacy while refusing to grant official status to ABA statistics. Unfortunately, the NBA has demonstrated that its top priority is increasing their profits, not doing what is right.

Brownell believes that his article provides the first long-form and in depth analysis of not just the specific issue of the NBA refusing to officially count ABA statistics but also of the broader issue of how to determine major league status across professional leagues. Brownell acknowledges the short form work of various authors (he cites my writing seven times).

It is inexcusable that the NBA arrogantly refuses to officially recognize the ABA's statistics. I hope that Adam Silver and the NBA's media partners read Brownell's article and immediately grant official recognition to the ABA's statistics. 

Labels: ABA, Adam Silver, Julius Erving, NBA, Roy E. Brownell II

posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 PM

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Remembering Nick Mileti, Founding Owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers

Nick Mileti, the founding owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers who also owned several other Cleveland sports teams at various times, passed away on August 21 at the age of 93. Mileti was born in Cleveland, and he was inducted in the Greater Cleveland Sports Hall of Fame in 2005. The Alumni Center at Bowling Green State University (his undergraduate alma mater) is named in his honor. He graduated from Ohio State University Moritz College of Law in 1956, and then practiced law in the Cleveland area before purchasing the Cleveland Arena and the Cleveland Arena's main tenant, the Cleveland Barons hockey team, in 1968.

Mileti was the driving force behind the creation of the Cleveland Cavaliers expansion team in 1970. Cleveland Arena was not big enough to accommodate the Cavaliers long term, so Mileti bought land in Richfield--which is located between Cleveland and Akron--and spearheaded construction of Richfield Coliseum. At its opening in 1974, Richfield Coliseum had a seating capacity of over 20,000 for basketball, making it one of the largest--if not the largest--indoor arenas in the country at that time.

The Cavaliers played their home games in Richfield Coliseum from 1974-94. Richfield Coliseum hosted the 1981 NBA All-Star Game, during which the Eastern Conference defeated the Western Conference 123-120. Cleveland forward Mike Mitchell scored 14 points for the victors as an injury replacement for Atlanta forward Dan Roundfield. Julius Erving scored a team-high 18 points for the East, but Nate Archibald received All-Star Game MVP honors after contributing nine points, a game-high nine assists, and five rebounds. Larry Bird played his final NBA game in Richfield Coliseum, and he later called it his favorite NBA arena.

Mileti sold his ownership stake in the Cavaliers in 1980. During Mileti's tenure with the Cavaliers, the team improved from 15-67 in the 1970-71 expansion season to 49-33 in 1975-76, when the Cavaliers not only made the playoffs for the first time but advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after the "Miracle at Richfield" win over a strong Washington Bullets team led by Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld, and Phil Chenier.

My cousins and I enjoyed going to Cavaliers games at Richfield Coliseum during the era when the Cavaliers featured Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Ron Harper, and Larry Nance. The Cavaliers did not win an NBA title until 2016, but those late 1980s/early 1990s teams were very good and very entertaining.

Mileti owned the Cleveland Indians (now known as the Cleveland Guardians) from 1972-76, and he is justifiably credited with keeping the team in Cleveland after there had been rumblings that the previous owner might relocate the franchise. Cleveland fans wish that Mileti had been able to save the Cleveland Browns from Art Modell! Miletti was a co-owner of radio station WWWE from 1972-76 as well. The 50,000 watt clear channel station carried play by play for the Cavaliers and the Indians, and remains a regional sports powerhouse today.

In a statement released by the Cavaliers, Jim Chones--who starred for the Cavaliers before winning the 1980 NBA championship with the L.A. Lakers--declared, "I have often heard people say, 'It's not how long you live, but what you live for.' Nick was rewarded with longevity because he touched many in his mission to make Cleveland great again. His voice was soft but confident, demanding attention. He loved Cleveland, and Cleveland loved him."

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Nick Mileti, Richfield Coliseum

posted by David Friedman @ 4:45 PM

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Remembering Al Attles, Who Served the Warriors for Six Decades as a Player, Coach, General Manager, and Ambassador

Al Attles passed away on Tuesday at age 87. He won the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's prestigious John W. Bunn Lifetime Achievement Award in 2014, and he was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame as a contributor in 2019. Attles spent over 60 years with the Warriors franchise as a player, coach, general manager, and team ambassador, a span of service with one franchise unmatched in league history.

At just 6-0, 175 pounds Attles may not have looked fearsome at first glance, but his hard-nosed style of play and his refusal to back down from any opponent earned him the nickname "The Destroyer" during an 11 year playing career with the Warriors, who he joined in 1961 when the franchise was still located in Philadelphia. The Warriors moved to the Bay Area in 1962. Attles averaged double figures in scoring four times, but he made his mark as a scrappy player who did the little things to help his team win. He ranked seventh in the league in assists in 1967-68 when league leaders were determined by totals, not averages. Although he was not a prolific scorer, Attles ranked in the top 10 in field goal percentage three times (1961-62, 1962-63, 1965-66).

Attles played with some of the greatest players of all-time, including Wilt Chamberlain, Rick Barry, and Nate Thurmond. Attles scored 17 points on 8-8 field goal shooting during Chamberlain's 100 point game, and he averaged 10.9 ppg playing alongside Chamberlain for the 1964 San Francisco Warriors team that lost 4-1 to the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. Attles averaged 7.4 ppg and 3.9 apg playing with Barry and Thurmond as the 1967 San Francisco Warriors advanced to the NBA Finals, where they lost to Chamberlain's Philadelphia 76ers. 

Attles became the Warriors' player-coach with 30 games remaining in the 1969-70 season, and he led the Warriors to a 41-41 record as a player-coach in his final season as a player in 1970-71. The San Francisco Warriors became known as the Golden State Warriors prior to the 1971-72 season, when Attles guided the team to a then franchise-record 51 wins. In 1974-75, Attles coached the Warriors to a 4-0 NBA Finals sweep of the Washington Bullets. Rick Barry played like Superman during that campaign, but the Warriors would not have triumphed without Attles' excellent coaching. Barry made this statement after Attles passed away: "My heart is heavy today with the loss of my mentor and friend. Al was my roommate during my rookie season in the league. He taught me valuable lessons on being a professional that couldn't be learned on the court. Later, as our coach during the 1975 championship season, he exemplified leadership, togetherness and a keen strategic ability that enabled us to succeed at the highest level. We shared so many wonderful and memorable moments together. My thoughts and prayers go out to his wife, Wilhelmina, and his entire family. He will be dearly missed."

Attles coached the Warriors through the 1982-83 season, and he still holds the Warriors' franchise record for most coaching wins (557). Attles joined the Warriors' front office after his coaching career, spending three years as the team's general manager before filling various other roles. In recent years, he was the team ambassador. He is one of only six players whose numbers have been retired by the Warriors franchise; his number 16 hangs in the rafters alongside the numbers of Rick Barry (24), Wilt Chamberlain (13), Tom Meschery (14), Chris Mullin (17), and Nate Thurmond (42).

Labels: Al Attles, Golden State Warriors, Nate Thurmond, Philadelphia Warriors, Rick Barry, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 9:01 AM

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Stephen Curry's Late Three Point Barrage Leads Team USA to 98-87 Olympic Gold Medal Game Win Over France

"What is easy is seldom excellent."--Samuel Johnson

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 24 points--including 12 points in the final 2:47--as Team USA held off a resilient France to win 98-87 and earn a fifth straight Olympic gold medal game victory. The 11 point final margin belies how competitive this contest was. Team USA was clinging to an 82-79 lead with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter after Victor Wembanyama's putback dunk, but then Curry hit four three pointers in a 2:12 span to save the day. Curry had a game-high +20 plus/minus number and five assists. In the first four games of the Olympics, Curry scored just 29 points and he only shot 5-20 (.200) from three point range, but in two games of medal round play versus Serbia and France he tallied 60 points while shooting 17-26 (.654) from beyond the arc. 

Kevin Durant--who started for the first time for Team USA in 2024--added 15 points, four rebounds, and four assists. He is the first American male basketball player to win four Olympic gold medals. Devin Booker also scored 15 points, and he had six rebounds, three assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+18). 

LeBron James capped off an excellent Olympics with another great all-around performance, scoring 14 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. He joined Curry and Booker as the only players with double digit plus/minus numbers (+17). James averaged 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 8.5 apg in the 2024 Olympics, earning MVP honors for the event. James headlines an Olympics All-Star Five that includes Curry, Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), and Dennis Schroder (Germany).

No other American player scored in double figures, but Anthony Davis had an impact with eight points, a game-high nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots.

Only four Team USA players played at least 20 minutes: James (32), Durant (31), Curry (30), and Booker (28). Derrick White and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Haliburton never had a significant role for Team USA, but White ranked sixth on Team USA in minutes played during pool play before falling out of the rotation in medal round play.

Joel Embiid started at center alongside James, Durant, Curry, and Booker, but he finished with just four points in 11 minutes. He did not make a field goal, and he spent much more time on the bench inciting the French crowd than on the court contributing to the win. His decision to play for Team USA instead of France turned out well for him, and he can thank Curry, Durant, James, and Booker for adding a gold medal to a trophy case that is otherwise bereft of team championships. Considering his lack of productivity versus France, it would have been hilarious if the fans had chanted at him in French the familiar taunt that is directed toward players who are helping the opposing team at least as much as they are helping their own team: "He with us!" 

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Guerschon Yabusele muscled his way to 20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Nando De Colo was the only other French player who scored in double figures (12 points). Evan Fournier runs hots and cold as a shooter, and in this game Team USA held him to eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting. France's rotations and substitution patterns were interesting, to put it mildly. Nic Batum played 25 minutes--third most on the team--despite having a plus/minus number (-20) that was -11 worse than any other French player. He led France in rebounding (eight rebounds) and assists (four) so he was productive, but when he was in the game France hemorrhaged points. In contrast, Rudy Gobert played just 12 minutes despite having a +3 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but Gobert had a positive impact with his defense, rebounding, and screen setting, so a case could be made that he earned more playing time.

In the past several years, France has consistently proven to be a worthy opponent for Team USA. Team USA beat France 87-82 in the gold medal game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) after losing to France 83-76 in the first game of pool play. France also defeated Team USA 89-79 in the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

This game proved to be no different, as it was competitive from the jump ball until the final buzzer.

James opened the scoring with a two-handed fast break dunk, and Wembanyama answered with a three pointer. Team USA led 12-11 at the 4:52 mark of the first quarter when the first substitutions were made, including Davis checking in for Embiid, and Fournier and Gobert entering for France. Tatum checked in for Durant at the 4:12 mark, when the score was still 12-11.

Team USA led 20-15 at the end of the first quarter while holding France to 1-9 three point field goal shooting, and Team USA extended that margin to 24-17 on two inside baskets by Davis. France countered with an 8-0 run to go up, 25-24. James put Team USA up 26-25 with a driving layup, but Team USA was not able to pull away. Yabusele cut Team USA's lead to 40-36 by posterizing James and then completing the three point play after James was called for a blocking foul. Team USA countered with a Curry three pointer followed by Booker's fast break layup and free throw after being fouled on the drive. Team USA led by double digits (46-36) for the first time. Yabusele's layup off of a Wembanyama feed just before the halftime buzzer trimmed Team USA's lead to eight, 49-41. 

Yabusele led France with 15 first half points, while Wembanyama had 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Booker was Team USA's only double figure scorer (13 points). James had seven points, five rebounds, and two assists. Team USA shot 9-20 (.450) from three point range in the first half while holding France to 3-16 (.188) three point field goal shooting.

Team USA began the third quarter with a 7-2 run in less than two minutes, and eventually widened the lead to 14 points (61-47), but just when it seemed like Team USA might pull away, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to pull France to within 65-56 at the 4:05 mark. After a timeout, both teams had multiple empty possessions before Fournier's three pointer cut Team USA's lead to 65-59. James answered with a three pointer to put Team USA up 68-59, and Team USA soon pushed the lead to 72-61, but France scored five points in the final 23 seconds to trail just 72-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA had seven turnovers in the third quarter.

Curry did not score in the first 7:13 of the fourth quarter before pouring in 12 of Team USA's 26 fourth quarter points. Team USA led 80-69 with less than seven minutes to go but could not sustain their double digit lead. For most of the fourth quarter, Team USA's offense featured sloppy ballhandling and missed shots, and France had outscored Team USA 13-10 in the final stanza before Curry heated up.

Team USA won the rebounding battle 37-33, but committed 17 turnovers compared to France's 13 turnovers. The key, as is often the case for Team USA in FIBA competitions, was that Team USA held France to 9-30 (.300) three point field goal shooting. As a bonus, Team USA shot 18-36 (.500) from beyond the arc. Curry did most of the long range damage with his 8-12 three point field goal shooting. 

Winning a gold medal under any circumstances is a tremendous accomplishment. Team USA was the prohibitive favorite and in the end they got the job done--but it is worth remembering that Team USA's roster included four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (James, Durant, Curry, Davis)--and this was almost certainly the last Olympics appearance for at least three of those four players. If Team USA needs that kind of overwhelming talent advantage on paper just to beat Serbia and France in very competitive games, then what foundation is Team USA building--either on this roster, or on the U19 and younger teams--for future FIBA success?

Curry's end of the game three point heroics were incredible--he zigged and zagged through France's defense like a video game character--but this is not a sustainable recipe for FIBA success because (1) this is almost certainly his last FIBA competition and (2) no one else can do what he did. If Team USA's formula for future FIBA success is going to be "Keep the game close and have one dude go ballistic for two minutes from three point range" then Team USA is going to struggle to win more gold medals versus countries that play team ball instead of hero ball. The formula for sustained FIBA success for Team USA is putting together a roster that plays stifling defense and then turns those defensive stops into transition scoring opportunities. It is fine--but not necessary--for some of those transition scoring opportunities to be three pointers, but the four late three pointers that Curry made are a testament to his individual greatness, not great game planning or ball movement.

As a Team USA fan, Curry's awesome late game shooting was exciting, but as an analyst/historian I wonder what is Team USA's plan for the future. 

Labels: 2024 Olympics, France, Guerschon Yabusele, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 10:06 PM

7 comments

Team USA Overcomes 17 Point Deficit to Defeat Serbia, 95-91

Team USA outscored Serbia 32-15 in the fourth quarter to escape with a 95-91 win that punched their ticket to a gold medal game matchup with France on Saturday. Stephen Curry scored a game-high 36 points, one short of Team USA's single game Olympics record--but Curry had his best Olympics performance in a highly competitive game, while Carmelo Anthony scored 37 points in a blowout win versus Nigeria in 2012. Curry shot 12-19 from the field (including 9-14 from three point range), and he had a game-high +20 plus/minus number. 

Joel Embiid had his best all-around game as a member of Team USA, scoring 19 points on 8-11 field goal shooting. He had seven fourth quarter points. LeBron James logged just the fourth triple double in the Olympics since the 1970s (when rebounds and assists began to be tracked consistently), and he is the only player since the 1970s with two Olympics triple doubles. James finished with 16 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high 10 assists. 

Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton did not play, while Anthony Edwards, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White each played 13 minutes or less. With Team USA staring elimination in the face, the players who Coach Steve Kerr trusted the most were Curry (33 minutes), James (32 minutes), Embiid (26 minutes), Devin Booker (24 minutes), Kevin Durant (24 minutes), and Jrue Holiday (20 minutes). 

Bogdan Bogdanovic led Serbia with 20 points, while Nikola Jokic had 17 points, a game-high 11 assists, and five rebounds. Aleksa Avramovic scored 15 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and he led Serbia's long range attack with 4-6 three point shooting. Team USA only outrebounded Serbia 34-33, and Team USA committed 10 turnovers compared to Serbia's seven turnovers.

It was evident from the opening tip that playing Serbia in the medal round is nothing like playing Brazil, the team that Team USA routed in the first game of medal round play. Serbia dominated Team USA for the first three quarters, leading 31-23 at the end of the first quarter and pushing the margin to 17 (42-25) before settling for a 54-43 halftime lead. It must be emphasized that Serbia controlled the game despite Curry putting on an incredible shooting exhibition, starting with 14 points in the first 3:38 of the game and 17 points overall in the first quarter; what wins for Team USA is not three point shooting or highlight plays, but rather stingy defense leading to transition scoring opportunities--and Team USA did not play that way until very late in the game.

Team USA trimmed the deficit to six, 65-59, on a Holiday three pointer with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but then Serbia countered with an 11-2 run to go up 76-61 with just :32 left in the third quarter. The momentum shifted at the 7:19 mark of the fourth quarter when Jokic committed his fourth foul while Serbia led, 78-70; in FIBA play, five fouls result in disqualification, so Jokic could not be as aggressive the rest of the way. On one fourth quarter possession, he backed away from Embiid in the post and gave up an open shot rather than risk being whistled for his fifth foul. 

James' driving layup tied the score at 84 with 3:41 left, and then after a Filip Petrusev dunk put Serbia back on top Curry drilled a three to give Team USA the lead for good, 87-86. Jokic's layup cut Team USA's lead to 93-91 with :26 remaining, but Serbia made a puzzling decision to let 18 seconds run off of the clock before fouling--and then they fouled Curry, whose two free throws iced the win.

Serbia shot 10-19 (.526) from three point range in the first half, and they made 15 three pointers in the first three quarters--five in each quarter--but did not make a single shot from beyond the arc in the fourth quarter as Team USA belatedly lifted their defensive focus and intensity. There could not be a better example proving the point that Team USA's shooting from three point range is not the deciding factor in these games. 

When figuring out what to make of this game, keep in mind that Team USA's roster includes four players from the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team while Serbia's team includes four players who have NBA experience. Jokic is an all-time great and Bogdanovic is a solid NBA starter, but Vasilije Micic has averaged 7.0 ppg in 60 career NBA games and Nikola Jovic has averaged 7.1 ppg in 61 career NBA games.

Here is a fascinating thought experiment: would Serbia have come within five points of beating Team USA if you switched Jokic with any one Team USA player? Keep in mind that 75th Anniversary Team members James, Curry, Durant, and Davis won most of their NBA titles by forming super teams, not by elevating teams without All-Stars. Would any of them even show up for the Olympics if they were told that their team's second best player would be Bogdan Bogdanovic? Curry led an underdog college squad at Davidson so maybe he would accept the challenge, but James, Durant, and Davis are not built like that.

I mean no disrespect to Serbia. In fact, my point is that the Serbian players are better at basketball than they are given credit for being, while American players are overrated. This is not a hot take, or an overreaction to one game. Team USA's game plan for the first 30-plus minutes versus Serbia seemed to be to hope that Curry could make enough three pointers to overcome their sluggish defense and their lack of an effective half court offense; in marked contrast, Serbia played a team game at both ends of the court. American basketball--from high school to college to the NBA--has devolved into an isolation game in which star players are protected by the officials and in which principles of team play at both ends of the court are not emphasized enough. For at least the past 20 years in FIBA play, we have regularly seen that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway. NBA players, particularly American NBA players, rely on rules that favor offense, and their statistics are inflated by that reliance; think of how often NBA players are bailed out by flopping and flailing. Embiid had an excellent game versus Serbia, but in this game and throughout the Olympics he has often flung himself to the floor--as he does all the time in the NBA--only to watch in exasperation as the FIBA referees refused to bail him out. Embiid has bragged that he would average 50 ppg in the NBA if double teaming were outlawed, but a better hypothetical to ponder is how many points he would average if the NBA stopped rewarding him for falling down. 

As I noted in my article about Team USA's performance in the USA Basketball showcase, the popular notion--repeatedly asserted by J.J. Redick--that today's NBA players are vastly superior to NBA players from previous eras does not withstand careful scrutiny. Jokic already has won an NBA championship despite not playing alongside a single All-Star, and now he nearly took down four 75th Anniversary Team members (plus a host of perennial All-Stars) with one NBA starter and two NBA reserves. Either Jokic is the greatest player of all-time, or his Serbian teammates are much better than anyone thinks, or the American players are not quite as good as their press clippings. Again, this is not based on just one game; this is based on watching more than two decades of regression of the American game--with a brief respite when Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd restored order by playing the kind of perimeter defense that is necessary for Team USA to consistently win in FIBA play: Bryant went 36-0 in FIBA play, and Kidd went 56-0 in FIBA play, but before and after their tenures with Team USA the squad suffered losses to teams that looked vastly inferior on paper if one only considers the players' NBA resumes.

Redick and others assert that the supposedly skinny NBA players of the 1990s, 1980s, and earlier would have had no chance trying to compete against James. If that is true, then why does James need three other 75th Anniversary Team members to barely beat Jokic and--no offense to Serbia--a bunch of skinny dudes who will likely never make an NBA All-Star team? I don't doubt that James would put up big individual numbers in any era, but he would not have won more championships in earlier eras than he won in his own era, unless you can picture Jokic and crew beating any championship team from the 1990s, 1980s, or 1970s. If James needs a team stacked with NBA All-Stars to barely squeak by Jokic and Serbia then James is not beating the 1970s Knicks or Celtics, or the 1980s Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, or 76ers, or the 1990s Bulls unless he has a stacked team.

This close call versus Serbia is just one more example of the extent to which American players who expect to be able to travel and palm the ball while being rewarded with free throw attempts if a defender even breathes on them are not nearly so spectacular when they are expected to play basketball by the written rules and not by the NBA's lenient interpretations of those rules. Remember when Gregg Popovich used to instruct his players to put their hands behind their backs when they guarded James Harden? Popovich was trying to prevent his players from getting into foul trouble based on the ludicrous why that Harden was officiated but--intentionally or not--he was also exposing the extent to which the NBA game is slanted to favor offense.

It is often said that the world has caught up to America in basketball, but that is overly simplistic. It is true that many of the other national teams have improved, but it is undeniable that American basketball has regressed. There is video evidence to demonstrate this. On August 8, 1992, the one and only Dream Team beat Croatia 117-85 to win Olympic gold. Team USA's starting lineup that day was Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, and David Robinson. I realize that half of the people reading this article may not have been alive in 1992, but those of us old enough to have seen all of the Dream Team's games live know the difference between their brand of basketball and the brand of basketball being played by the current version of Team USA. It is fair to say that the Dream Team would have beaten this Serbian team by at least 15-20 points, and probably more. Keep in mind that the Croatian team that the Dream Team thrashed featured three future Hall of Famers: Toni Kukoc, Drazen Petrovic, and Dino Radja. That Croatian team would probably beat this Serbian team. The Dream Team certainly made their share of highlight plays, but they won because of their mastery of basketball fundamentals at both ends of the court: they defended tenaciously, they rebounded, and they punctuated fast breaks with dunks, not "logo threes." 

It is undeniable that Team USA 2024 is far from being a Dream Team, let alone matching the real Dream Team, and even though Team USA is (and should be) the favorite versus France it is not at all certain that Team USA will win the gold medal game. France beat Team USA 83-76 in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (held in 2021), and then battled Team USA to the wire before falling 87-82 in the gold medal game.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 AM

12 comments

Team USA Routs Brazil 122-87 to Move Within Two Wins of Capturing Olympic Gold

After posting a 3-0 record in pool play and earning the number one seed in the medal round, Team USA demolished Brazil in the quarterfinals to set up a semifinal matchup on Thursday versus Serbia, who needed overtime to beat Australia. Team USA jumped out to an 18-8 lead within the first five minutes, and enjoyed a double digit cushion most of the rest of the way. Brazil cut the margin to just eight points, 42-34, at the 4:10 mark of the second quarter before Team USA closed the half with a 21-2 run to erase any doubt. As is generally the case in FIBA play, strong defense leading to transition scoring opportunities was the key factor. Team USA held Brazil to 32-77 (.416) field goal shooting overall, including 12-37 (.324) from beyond the arc. Team USA controlled the boards 46-34, and forced 15 turnovers while only turning the ball over 11 times. Each Team USA starter had a plus/minus number of at least +12, a welcome change from previous games when opposing teams kept pace with Team USA's starters before succumbing to Team USA's superior depth.

Starter Devin Booker scored a team-high 18 points on 6-9 field goal shooting in 15 minutes. Anthony Edwards added 17 points on 6-10 field goal shooting off of the bench in 20 minutes. Joel Embiid, inserted in the starting lineup despite his largely desultory play for Team USA, had 14 points and seven rebounds in 12 minutes; naturally, while finally having a good game he engaged in constant celebrations, taunting a French crowd that jeered him for spurning France (he is a French citizen as well) to play for Team USA. Also naturally, Embiid injured his ankle during the first half and did not play in the second half: watching him play for Team USA is like watching him in the NBA playoffs when he usually plays below his regular season standard for most games but has one or two good games and invariably is either injured entering the postseason or gets hurt during the playoffs. He is not expected to miss more time in the Olympics.

Anthony Davis, Team USA's defensive anchor, scored 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting while also tying Brazil's Georginho De Paula for game-high rebounding honors (eight). LeBron James added 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting plus a game-high nine assists before leaving the game after taking an elbow to the face. James needed four stitches and did not return to action but he is expected to be fully available for the Serbia game. Kevin Durant chipped in 11 points off of the bench and surpassed Lisa Leslie to become the all-time leading scorer for Team USA in Olympic play (of course, such records are skewed in favor of modern players who participate in the Olympics several times, in contrast to previous eras when American players played in the Olympics just once).

Bruno Caboclo scored a game-high 30 points for Brazil, but Team USA held most of his teammates in check.

Serbia has been up and down during the Olympics, but they have the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) plus Bojan Bogdanovic and a bunch of scrappy players who most casual fans do not know much about. Team USA handled Serbia pretty easily in both the USA Basketball Showcase and pool play, though it is worth mentioning that in pool play Serbia played even with Team USA for the 31 minutes that Jokic was on the court but was outscored 29-3 during the nine minutes that Jokic was on the bench. If Serbia plays Jokic almost the entire game and he gets a little more help from his teammates then this game could be closer than expected, particularly if Team USA has some defensive lapses.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 9:04 AM

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Team USA Cruises to 3-0 Record in Pool Play, Earns Top Seed in Medal Round

On Saturday, Team USA routed Puerto Rico 104-83 in the final game of Olympics pool play. Puerto Rico led 25-17 after the first eight minutes, but Team USA trimmed the margin to 29-25 by the end of the first quarter and then outscored Puerto Rico 39-16 in the second quarter to take a 64-45 halftime lead. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range and that did not matter at all, because they held Puerto Rico to 10-37 (.270) three point shooting. As is generally the case for Team USA in FIBA play, defending the three point line, getting out in transition, and scoring easy baskets were much more important than making three pointers--despite the incessant chatter about the need to stuff the roster with three point shooters: Stephen Curry, widely considered the greatest three point shooter of all-time, shot .263 from three point range in Team USA's three pool play games, and Team USA still won each game by at least 17 points.

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 26 points in just 17 minutes off of the bench; as has often been the case for Team USA this year, the reserves picked up the slack after the starters were sluggish. Joel Embiid added 15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting, which qualifies as a breakout game for him considering how poorly he has played up to this point; he looks out of shape, but the undersized Puerto Rico team was just the right medicine for him. Kevin Durant added 11 points in 19 minutes off of the bench, while LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis each scored 10 points. James had six rebounds and a game-high eight assists, and Tatum tied Puerto Rico's Ismael Romero for game-high honors with 10 rebounds.

Team USA finished Olympics pool play with a 3-0 record. Team USA previously beat Serbia (110-84) and South Sudan (103-86 after nearly losing to South Sudan in the USA Basketball Showcase)--and has earned the number seed in the medal round based on their overall point differential of +64. Canada and Germany also went 3-0, but they had point differentials of +47 and +20 respectively. In the Olympics, blowing out an inferior opponent is an important tactic for getting a better seed, not bad sportsmanship.

The medal round is single elimination, so the NBA players have to adjust their mindsets from seven game playoff series during which each game lasts 48 minutes to the reality that one bad 40 minute game--or even one bad stretch during a 40 minute game--could be the end of the road. Team USA is the clear favorite to win the gold medal, but the other top FIBA teams are not pushovers. Team USA must continue to defend the perimeter aggressively and then score easy baskets in transition; if the game slows down, the top FIBA teams may pick them apart in the halfcourt. Depth is a major weapon--perhaps the major weapon--for Team USA; it is fascinating to see that even unheralded FIBA teams that lack NBA stars can hang with Team USA's first unit of all-time great players before being overwhelmed after Team USA's second unit enters the fray.

Edwards led Team USA in scoring (16.7 ppg on .633 field goal shooting) during pool play, followed closely by Durant (16.0 ppg on .636 field goal shooting). James is third in scoring (14.3 ppg on .643 field goal shooting), first in assists (7.3 apg), and third in rebounding (6.7 rpg) behind Tatum (7.5 rpg) and Davis (7.0 rpg).

Team USA has been rolling so comfortably that media members have felt compelled to make up drama-filled headlines, shrieking in horror when Tatum did not play versus Serbia and then again when Embiid did not play versus South Sudan. Team USA's Coach Steve Kerr explained those lineup choices as being strictly matchup-related; he does not have a set rotation, but instead shuffles his starting lineup and adjusts playing time based on the strengths/weaknesses of the opponent. If the people covering the 2024 Olympics did their research then they would know that the 1992 Dream Team--the first Team USA squad that had NBA players on the roster--had many different starting lineups; every player on the roster except John Stockton and Christian Laettner started at least one game, with most players starting three or four of the eight games (not surprisingly, Michael Jordan was the only player who started all eight games).

Team USA will face Brazil in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The winner of that game will play the winner of Australia versus Serbia. In the other bracket, the winner of Germany versus Greece will face the winner of Canada versus France, with the winner of that semifinal matchup advancing to the gold medal game to presumably face Team USA.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 3:54 AM

6 comments

Russell Westbrook Adds Depth, Energy, and Playmaking to the Denver Nuggets

At the urging of three-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets signed 2017 NBA regular season MVP Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets did not have to give up anything for Westbrook, who was waived by the Utah Jazz after the Jazz acquired him in a sign and trade deal with the L.A. Clippers.

Westbrook spent the first 11 seasons of his career with the Oklahoma City Thunder before being traded to the Houston Rockets in 2019 for Chris Paul and four first round draft picks. Westbrook's stay in Houston lasted just one season, as his serious approach to the game--playing hard consistently and showing up on time for practices and games--did not mesh well with the much more casual approach favored by James Harden. The Rockets traded Westbrook to the Washington Wizards in 2020 for John Wall and a first round draft pick. Westbrook averaged 22.2 ppg, 11.7 apg, and 11.5 rpg for the Wizards in 2020-21, capturing his third assists title in four years while leading the Wizards to their only playoff appearance between 2018 and 2024. Westbrook also broke Oscar Robertson's record for career triple doubles.

After the 2021 season, Westbrook landed with the L.A. Lakers as part of a five team trade. The LeBron James-Anthony Davis-Russell Westbrook trio could have been a force to reckon with if the Lakers committed to playing defense and then pushing the ball up the court at a fast pace after defensive stops, but James prefers to slow the game down, monopolize the ball, and then find scapegoats after his team loses. Westbrook and Coach Frank Vogel became the prime scapegoats for James and his media sycophants. The Lakers fired Vogel in 2022, just two years after he led the Lakers to the championship, and then they traded Westbrook to the Utah Jazz in February 2023. The Jazz waived Westrook, who finished the season with the L.A. Clippers. Westbrook averaged 15.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 7.5 apg overall in the 2022-23 season, and he averaged 23.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and 7.4 apg during the Clippers' first round loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers acquired James Harden early during the 2023-24 season, and Westbrook accepted being relegated to a reserve role. Westbrook averaged 11.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 4.5 apg while shooting .454 from the field. He finished tied for seventh in the voting for Sixth Man of the Year. Not surprisingly, the Clippers flamed out again in the playoffs, with Kawhi Leonard getting hurt, Harden putting up his typical "concert tour" field goal percentages, and Paul "I call myself Playoff P" George disappearing as usual. 

In short, Westbrook has spent the past four seasons with organizations that are not serious about consistently putting together a championship caliber program: he should get a special award for carrying the "Wheeze-hards" to the playoffs, the Lakers have not advanced past the first round in three of the four seasons after winning the 2020 "bubble title," and the Clippers put way too much faith in Leonard's balky knees, George's flimsy playoff resume, and Harden's documented record of disappearing in the games that matter most.

Westbrook will benefit tremendously from leaving teams engulfed in drama to go to a team that is serious about winning but a bit shorthanded now due to salary cap constraints; in the past two years, the Nuggets have lost Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, two key rotation players from their 2023 championship team. Westbrook will not replace their "3 and D" contributions, but he is an elite scorer, rebounder, and playmaker who consistently plays hard and who would do anything to help his team. The Nuggets have a great organization from ownership to management to the coaching staff to the tone set by Jokic, and Westbrook will fit in perfectly with a team that is serious about winning.

Westbrook's critics dismiss his rebounding numbers as stat padding. It is evident that Westbrook's critics--including but not limited to Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper--either have an agenda or do not understand basketball very well, because it is easy to demonstrate (1) that Westbrook's rebounds are not fungible and (2) there are many real, documented examples of stat padding that the league and its media partners are quite happy to ignore. 

Westbrook will be a great energizer as a sixth man for the Nuggets, and he is still capable of being a starter as well.

Labels: Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 5:15 PM

4 comments

Thoughts About Team USA's Performance in the USA Basketball Showcase

Team USA went 5-0 in the USA Basketball Showcase in preparation for the 2024 Olympics, but Team USA was far from dominant, and needed late rallies to survive versus South Sudan and Germany. Although many commentators argue that it is important for Team USA to be stocked with three point shooters, history has shown that defending the three point line--and perimeter defense in general--is much more critical for Team USA to be successful. Team USA does not typically have a great halfcourt offense, so it is essential for Team USA to create pressure on the perimeter to force turnovers and low percentage shots, and then to score easy baskets in transition. Team USA's depth becomes a big advantage if Team USA pushes the pace to wear down opposing teams that have some talent at the top of their roster but lack depth.

Team USA opened the USA Basketball Showcase with an 86-72 win versus Canada. The most notable thing about that game is that Canada's starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Dwight Powell, Dillon Brooks, and R.J. Barrett held their own against Team USA's starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and Devin Booker. Team USA's top five bench players--Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum, and Bam Adebayo--each had double digit plus/minus numbers, while three of the five starters had negative plus/minus numbers. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but here they told an accurate story: Team USA's starters were sluggish, Canada led 21-14 at the end of the first quarter, and Team USA's bench turned the game around in the second quarter. 

In Team USA's 98-92 win versus Australia, Team USA's starters again struggled, and the bench again saved the day. This time, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum started while Jrue Holiday and Devin Booker came off of the bench. Australia is fifth in the FIBA rankings with a roster featuring several players with NBA experience but no upper echelon NBA players.

Team USA improved to 3-0 by beating Serbia, 105-79. Serbia is fourth in the FIBA rankings, led by three-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic supported by a talented cast of non-NBA players. Jokic struggled versus Team USA, finishing with just 16 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, and Team USA's depth again carried the day with four bench players registering plus/minus numbers of at least +21. 

Perhaps the easy win over Serbia made Team USA overconfident, because in the fourth game of the tour Team USA narrowly avoided the most embarrassing loss in USA Basketball history, escaping with a 101-100 victory over a South Sudan squad that is 33rd in the FIBA rankings. Team USA needed a dominant performance from 39 year old LeBron James--25 points on 10-14 field goal shooting in just 23 minutes, capped off by the game-winning layup with 8 seconds remaining. South Sudan managed two offensive rebounds and three field goal attempts in the final six seconds before Team USA escaped with the win.

It does not make sense to overreact to one game, let alone a game that does not count in the standings, but South Sudan's near upset of Team USA is not an isolated event; in the past two decades, Team USA has suffered several humiliating and inexcusable losses to teams that, on paper, should have been cannon fodder, and this should give pause to anyone who lionizes today's NBA players while slandering the great players from previous eras. J.J. Redick mocked Bob Cousy while asserting that Kyrie Irving would have been perceived as a "wizard" had he played in the 1950s, but the reality is that a significant portion of Irving's so-called wizardry is a product of rules changes and lack of enforcement of rules; specifically, Irving and his contemporaries are permitted to travel and to palm the ball, and they are rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders. We are seeing in FIBA play that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway.

Look at South Sudan's roster both in terms of individual player resumes--none of the players are currently on an NBA roster and only two have even minimal NBA experience--and skill set evaluations. Is South Sudan better than the 1950s Boston Celtics, let alone the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1992 Dream Team or the 1996 Chicago Bulls? I would expect those four teams to each beat South Sudan by 20 points or more, because those teams were fundamentally sound, and they consistently played hard. 

It is easy to say that the game versus South Sudan was an exhibition contest and that Team USA did not play hard--but isn't the point of the exhibition schedule to develop the necessary habits and mindset to win the gold medal? I could understand Team USA letting up a little after building a 20 or 30 point lead, but there is no excuse for Team USA to trail for most of the game--by double digits at times--and need heroics from James to survive.

In the wake of the near disaster versus South Sudan, Team USA barely held off Germany, 92-88. For the second game in a row, Team USA needed James to save the day, this time with 20 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including Team USA's last five points after Germany cut Team USA's lead to 87-84 with 1:43 remaining. Germany is third in the FIBA rankings, and Germany beat Team USA last year. Here is what I wrote after Germany upset Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup:

From an individual talent standpoint, there is no German player who would start for Team USA, and few if any German players who would have even been selected for the Team USA roster had they been American citizens, so USA Basketball has to take a long, hard look not only at roster composition but also coaching philosophies. Should the Team USA roster be constructed based primarily on individual talent, or on actually putting together a group of players who can collectively play championship-caliber basketball in FIBA events? Is Team USA's coaching staff putting enough emphasis on the importance of perimeter defense, and is the roster comprised of players who grasp and implement that message? Two of the best Team USA squads ever--the 1992 Dream Team and the 2008 Redeem Team--featured guards/wing players who applied tremendous defensive pressure on the perimeter, primarily Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in 1992 and Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in 2008.  

The current version of Team USA is not good enough at pressuring ballhandlers, and is not disciplined enough in terms of getting back on defense and making sure that every shot is contested. It is safe to say that the 1992 U.S. team and the 2008 U.S. team would beat this year's Lithuania team and this year's Germany team by more than 20 points each, so while it is true that other countries have improved at basketball it is also undeniably true that Team USA has regressed from both a talent standpoint and an execution standpoint. I understand that the 2023 FIBA World Cup squad is not our "A" Team, but even our "B" Team should beat Lithuania and Germany, because those squads are not as good as the truly great FIBA teams from outside the United States such as Argentina's squads led by Manu Ginobili and Spain's teams led by Pau Gasol--and it must be noted that many other countries also sent their "B" Team, as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are just the two most prominent of many non-American players who skipped the 2023 World Cup. 

The bottom line is that we have seen this story before: Team USA losing to less talented teams because Team USA played awful defense.

Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany was brushed off by some commentators because Team USA had a "B" team roster--but in 2024 Team USA has an "A" team roster and still only beat Germany by four points. Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany echoed Team USA's 2021 loss to France in the Olympics, when it was glaringly evident how much Team USA missed the perimeter defensive pressure provided by Kobe Bryant as Team USA won gold medals in the Olympics in 2008 and 2012:

Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective. 

Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period. 

Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.

Also, NBA officiating has always differed from FIBA officiating, but the differences are now more pronounced than ever; in the NBA, offensive players can get away with murder on the perimeter--including traveling, carrying, and running over defenders--while any defender who is in close proximity to an offensive player (especially an offensive player who is viewed as a star) is liable to be whistled for a foul. In the loss to France, five Team USA players had more fouls than field goals made! Durant, Booker, Lillard, and the other NBA All-Stars who are big time scorers are used to not only attempting a lot of free throws per game but they are also used to (1) not being whistled for fouls, and (2) having a lot of space to operate because defenders are wary of being whistled for fouls that not only put them in foul trouble but also put their team in the penalty.

Team USA failed to win a medal in the 2023 FIBA World Cup after losing to Canada in the bronze medal game, and Team USA won the gold medal in the Olympics in 2021, avenging the opening game loss to France. It is facile to say that the world has caught up with Team USA, but it may be more accurate to say that Team USA has regressed at least as much as the world has progressed. American players have lost touch with basketball fundamentals, they have become accustomed to officiating that coddles them on offense, and they are not used to consistently having to put forth effort defensively. 

Due to injury, Kevin Durant did not play during the USA Basketball Showcase, but a roster featuring James, Curry, Embiid, Tatum, Edwards, Davis, and other big-name players should not be dependent on adding yet another superstar in order to beat Australia, Canada, Germany, or Serbia, let alone South Sudan.

It is becoming evident that the current level of NBA basketball is not as good advertised, and this is particularly true regarding U.S. born NBA players. Unless one is delusional enough to think that a team led by Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder would pose any threat to the Jordan-Pippen Bulls, the Bird-McHale-Parish Celtics, or the Russell-Cousy Celtics, one must concede that the current NBA stars--individually and collectively--are not quite as great as the hype suggests. It is one thing for Redick to call Irving a "wizard," but does he think that Wagner and Schroder are "wizards"? Does he think that South Sudan has a roster full of "wizards"? Today's NBA stars put up gaudy numbers versus each other in a controlled environment in which "entertainment"--punctuated by slam dunks and three pointers, which are favored by both "stat gurus" and the league's media partners who feature dunks and treys in highlight packages--is favored over basketball fundamentals; remove those stars from that controlled environment, and they often do not look quite so great. This is not an overreaction to one game or one exhibition tour; this is analysis based on a sample size of over 20 years of Team USA's play in FIBA events, coinciding with the NBA's shift toward highlighting offense and handcuffing defense.

It would be shocking on paper if the 2024 Team USA squad headlined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid fails to win Olympic gold, but the reality is that this team has displayed weaknesses that opposing teams can exploit. To be clear, I still expect Team USA to win Olympic gold, but I also expect that there will be at least one close call along the way--and when a team that is superior on paper lets the opposition hang around, an upset can happen.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 10:43 AM

4 comments

Reflections on the Extraordinary Basketball Life of Pat Williams

Pat Williams, who built the powerful 1983 Philadelphia 76ers team that stormed to the NBA championship with a 12-1 postseason record, passed away on Wednesday at the age of 84. Williams was the General Manager of the 76ers from 1974-86, a period during which the 76ers reached the NBA Finals four times (1977, 1980, 1982-83) while reaching the Eastern Conference Finals seven times (1977-78, 1980-83, 1985). 

This has been a sad week for fans of the 1970s and 1980s 76ers; on Tuesday, Joe "Jellybean" Bryant passed away. Bryant played for Williams' 76ers in the mid to late 1970s, and was part of the "Bomb Squad" reserve unit, along with World B. Free. Free and former 76ers coach Gene Shue reunited with the San Diego Clippers in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

Williams took over a moribund 76ers team and quickly turned them into a championship contender by drafting Doug Collins, signing George McGinnis away from the ABA's Indiana Pacers, and then acquiring Julius Erving from the New York Nets after the 1976 ABA-NBA merger. The 76ers' owner at that time, Fitz Eugene Dixon, had only recently purchased the team and was not very familiar with pro basketball. After Williams informed Dixon that Erving was available for the then-astronomical price of $6 million (including compensation to the Nets plus a long term contract for Erving), Dixon asked who Erving was. Instead of replying that Erving was a three-time regular season MVP, Williams explained simply that Erving is "the Babe Ruth of basketball." Dixon then told Williams "Fine and dandy," and the rest is history: Erving spent the last 11 seasons of his pro career with the 76ers, winning the 1981 regular season MVP and earning five All-NBA First Team selections while leading the 76ers to the league's best overall regular season record from 1976-83 plus the aforementioned seven Eastern Conference Finals appearances, four NBA Finals appearances, and one NBA title.

Williams had a "20-20-20" vision for Erving, McGinnis, and Collins, convincing those three stars that the 76ers would be best served by having a balanced attack with three 20 ppg scorers as opposed to an offense featuring one 30 ppg scorer and two 15 ppg scorers. The 76ers posted the Eastern Conference's best regular season record in 1976-77 (50-32) with Erving averaging 21.6 ppg, McGinnis scoring 21.4 ppg, and Collins chipping in 18.3 ppg. All three players made the All-Star team, and Erving and McGinnis earned All-NBA Second Team selections as well. The 76ers lost 4-2 in the NBA Finals to a Portland Trail Blazers team featuring Bill Walton and Maurice Lucas.  

The 76ers gradually moved away from the 20-20-20 approach toward an approach recognizing that Erving was clearly the team's best player. Erving averaged an NBA career-high 26.9 ppg in 1979-80 and he finished second in regular season MVP voting to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, whose L.A. Lakers defeated Erving's 76ers 4-2 in the NBA Finals after rookie Magic Johnson had 42 points, 15 rebounds, and seven assists in game six to earn Finals MVP honors.

Erving won the 1981 NBA regular season MVP, becoming the first non-center to capture that honor since Oscar Robertson won the 1964 NBA regular season MVP and foreshadowing the way that non-centers would soon dominate MVP voting--but during that era a team needed a dominant center to win an NBA title, and even the great Erving could not win an NBA title with a center duo of Darryl Dawkins and Caldwell Jones trying to match up with Hall of Fame big men Bill Walton, Washington's duo of Wes Unseld-Elvin Hayes, Jack Sikma, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Robert Parish; teams led by those big men won every NBA title between 1976 and 1982. Williams solved the 76ers' big man problem by acquiring Moses Malone prior to the 1982-83 season. Malone, who had already won the 1979 and 1982 regular season MVPs, teamed with Erving to form one of the greatest duos in pro basketball history: Malone won the 1982-83 regular season MVP after averaging 24.5 ppg and a league-leading 15.3 rpg, while Erving was fifth in 1982-83 regular season MVP voting, his fourth straight top five finish. The 1983 76ers' 12-1 playoff record stood as the all-time standard for postseason excellence until the 2001 L.A. Lakers went 15-1 in an expanded playoff format, followed by the 2018 Golden State Warriors going 16-1 after the NBA again expanded the playoff format.

Although Williams enjoyed his greatest professional success while working in the NBA, he began his sports career in baseball, not basketball. He played catcher on a scholarship for Wake Forest, and then he spent two years playing in the minor leagues before moving into a front office role for the Miami Marlins, then a minor league affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. In 1967, The Sporting News honored Williams as the Minor League Executive of the Year. 

Williams first became involved with the NBA in 1968, and he worked for several different franchises. He began his NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers, enjoyed a successful tenure as the Chicago Bulls' General Manager, briefly took that same role with the Atlanta Hawks, and then returned to Philadelphia in 1974. In 1989, Williams helped to launch the Orlando Magic expansion franchise, and Williams was a pillar in Orlando ever since that time, not only building the Magic into a championship contender but also attempting to bring a Major League Baseball franchise to Orlando.

Nick Anderson, the first player chosen in the NBA Draft by the expansion Orlando Magic in 1989 with the 11th overall pick, posted a heartfelt tribute to Williams that reads in part, "I'm totally devastated. This is a sad day for Basketball and Orlando. My kids asked 'Why you crying Daddy?' and I told them because I lost a father for the second time. The last time I felt this tore up was when my father passed away. And now my basketball father Pat Williams has gone to join my dad in Heaven."

During Williams' tenure with the Magic, the expansion team quickly became a contender, reaching the NBA playoffs in their fifth season, and then making four straight playoff appearances from 1994-1997. The Magic drafted Shaquille O'Neal in 1992, and acquired Penny Hardaway in a draft day trade in 1993. Those two players led the Magic to the 1995 NBA Finals. 

Williams was also a motivational speaker, and the author of more than 100 books, including The Winning Combination: 21 Keys to Coaching and Leadership Greatness. Williams was not only a shrewd personnel evaluator and savvy businessman, but he was a wonderful ambassador for basketball. In 2012, Williams received the John Bunn Award, the highest honor bestowed by the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame short of induction. He was inducted into the Wake Forest Sports Hall of Fame and the Delaware Sports Museum and Hall of Fame. Faith and family were always foremost for Williams, who raised 18 children (14 of whom were adopted) with his wife first wife Jill. 

I interviewed Williams twice. He was very generous with his time, and very forthcoming with his answers. Williams will be deeply missed by all of the people whose lives he touched, and his impact and legacy will never be forgotten.

Labels: Doug Collins, George McGinnis, Julius Erving, Nick Anderson, Orlando Magic, Pat Williams, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:54 AM

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Remembering Joe "Jellybean" Bryant, NBA Player/European Player and Father of Kobe Bryant

Joe Bryant passed away on Tuesday at the age of 69, reportedly succumbing to a massive stroke. Younger fans may only think of Joe Bryant as the father of Pantheon member Kobe Bryant, who tragically died with his daughter Gianna and seven other passengers in a helicopter crash four years ago--but "Jellybean," as Joe was known, had a long professional basketball playing career, including eight seasons in the NBA and 10 seasons in Europe. Kobe's middle name Bean is derived from Joe's nickname. For clarity in this article, I will refer to Joe and Kobe by their first names.

Joe was ahead of his time as an athletic, slender forward who could shoot the jump shot but also attack the hoop off of the dribble. After averaging 20.3 ppg and 11.1 rpg in two seasons at LaSalle, he was drafted by the Golden State Warriors as an underclassman Hardship selection (now referred to as Early Entry) with the 14th overall pick in the 1975 NBA Draft, but the Warriors traded him to the Philadelphia 76ers before the start of the 1975-76 season. Joe averaged 7.4 ppg in a solid rookie season, and he scored 7.7 ppg in three playoff games as the 76ers reached the postseason for the first time since 1971. George McGinnis was the 76ers' best player that season, with fellow All-Star Doug Collins serving as a strong second option. 

The ABA-NBA merger happened prior to the 1976-77 season, and in the aftermath of the merger the 76ers acquired Julius Erving, the three-time ABA regular season MVP who had shared that honor with McGinnis in 1975. Joe's role was reduced on this star-studded team, but he was part of a talented bench that became known as the "Bomb Squad." The 76ers lost 4-2 in the NBA Finals to a Portland Trail Blazers team featuring Bill Walton and Maurice Lucas. 

Joe played two more seasons for the 76ers before they traded him to the San Diego Clippers for a 1986 first round draft pick that the 76ers later traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who selected Brad Daugherty. San Diego's coach was Gene Shue, who was Joe's first coach with the 76ers, and San Diego's leading scorer was World B. Free, a fellow "Bomb Squad" member with the 76ers. Joe spent three seasons with the Clippers, averaging a career-high 11.8 ppg in 1981-82.

The Clippers traded Joe to the Houston Rockets on June 28, 1982, and he finished his NBA career by averaging 10.0 ppg for the 1982-83 Rockets. Joe spent the next 10 years playing professionally in Europe. After his playing career ended, Joe held a variety of coaching positions in America and overseas, including three seasons as coach of the WNBA's L.A. Sparks (2005-06, 2011). Joe led the Sparks to the Western Conference Finals in 2006.

There is no doubt that Kobe learned a lot about basketball from his father and from his father's journey, and it is evident that Kobe's experiences growing up in Italy had a significant influence on him. Joe was often frustrated by his relatively limited role during his NBA career, and it is not a stretch to say that Kobe's determination to be the number one option at all times was fueled in part by refusing to be relegated to a subordinate role the way that Joe had been.

The Bryant family has suffered the loss of three members in the past four years, and I wish them peace and comfort in this difficult time.

Labels: Doug Collins, George McGinnis, Joe Bryant, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Philadelphia 76ers, World B. Free

posted by David Friedman @ 1:24 PM

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Is "Playoff P" the Answer for Philadelphia's Postseason Woes?

Paul George expected the L.A. Clippers to give him the same contract terms that Kawhi Leonard earned, and after the Clippers declined to do so George signed a maximum contract with the 76ers that will pay George $212 million over the next four seasons. Leonard won two NBA Finals MVPs while leading two different teams to NBA championships (2014 San Antonio Spurs, 2019 Toronto Raptors), but George has never reached the NBA Finals, owns an 8-11 career playoff series record, and has a .423 career playoff field goal percentage, so George is the only person surprised that the Clippers do not value him as highly as they value Leonard. 

George is a 34 year old shooting guard who has played in more than 60 regular season games just once since 2019; granted, his most durable season during that time frame was last season (74 games), but is it reasonable to assume that an injury-prone player is going to become less injury-prone in his mid to late 30s? The 76ers are wagering more than $200 million that between the ages of 34 and 38 George will be healthier than ever and that he will be more efficient in the playoffs than ever. George dubbed himself "Playoff P," but that is a self-proclaimed belief as opposed to a performance-based tribute. James Harden's 2024 playoff disappearing act with the Clippers should not obscure the reality that "Playoff P" also came up short as the Clippers lost 4-2 in the first round to the Dallas Mavericks, culminating in horrific shooting performances in game five (4-13, .308) and game six (6-18, .333).

The 76ers are desperate to provide more help for Joel Embiid, their injury-prone star who received the 2023 regular season MVP award but has yet to play in more than 68 games in a regular season or lead his squad past the second round of the playoffs. Embiid's regular season career field goal percentage is .504, but his playoff career field goal percentage is just .459. He shot better than .490 from the field once in his seven postseason appearances. Embiid's resume indicates that he is not healthy enough, consistent enough, or dominant enough to lead a team on a long playoff run.

On paper, the George acquisition improves the 76ers by adding defensive versatility, playmaking, and perimeter scoring, but the reality will likely turn out to be that when the chips are down Embiid and George will be injured, inefficient, or both. The 76ers will have to reply heavily on Tyrese Maxey, who averaged 29.8 ppg on .478 field goal shooting in the 2024 playoffs, to save the day for Embiid and George.

The 76ers have demonstrably not "tanked to the top"--unless you believe that the second round of the playoffs is "the top," because that is the farthest that the 76ers have advanced in the playoffs since beginning the infamous "Process" 11 years ago during Sam Hinkie's reign of error. Daryl Morey became the 76ers' president of basketball operations in 2020, and he has yet to succeed where his protege Hinkie failed--and that is not surprising, because Morey's resume as an NBA executive is pedestrian despite the fact that he has been granted nearly two decades to test out his beliefs about "advanced basketball statistics." Morey ranked James Harden as a greater scorer than Michael Jordan and he never retracted that nonsensical take even after Harden's "concert tour" playoff field goal percentages and Harden's numerous playoff failures, culminating in Harden publicly blasting Morey as a liar and demanding to be traded--a demand that Morey granted without ever criticizing Harden; we all want someone to love us as much as Morey loves Harden.

The fact that Morey is betting over $200 million that George can help the 76ers win a championship is an excellent reason to believe that the 76ers will once again fall short of reaching the NBA Finals, as has been the case with every Morey-led team during his tenure running NBA franchises first in Houston and now in Philadelphia.

Labels: Daryl Morey, Joel Embiid, L.A. Clippers, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 12:23 PM

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The Mikal Bridges Trade Lifts Knicks to Contender Status, Plunges Nets Into Tank Mode

The Brooklyn Nets dealt Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks for five first round draft picks plus a second round draft pick and a first round pick swap; three of the first round picks and the first round pick swap are in 2027 or later, indicating that the Nets are planning to try the trendy--but thus far unsuccessful--plan of "tanking to the top." Tanking does not work, as Philadelphia 76ers fans have seen for the past decade. In contrast to the Nets giving up proven talent while hoping that unproven talent acquired years from now will help the team win, the Knicks are trying to win now, as Bridges joins three of his teammates from Villanova's 2016 NCAA championship team: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo.

Bridges has never missed a game during his NBA career. In the 2022-23 season he played in 83 regular season games, appearing in 56 games with Phoenix before being traded to Brooklyn, for whom he played in 27 games. Bridges averaged a career-high 20.1 ppg that season, and he averaged 19.6 ppg in 2023-24. He shot at least .510 from the field during each of his last three full seasons with the Suns, but his field goal percentage dropped significantly as he assumed a larger offensive role with the Nets (.475 in 2022-23, .436 in 2023-24). He is not a great rebounder or passer but he is an excellent defensive player, earning a selection to the All-Defensive First Team in 2022, when he also finished second to Marcus Smart in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Bridges is an above average three point shooter (.375 3FG% for his career).

Last season, the undersized but scrappy Knicks overcame a host of injuries to rank second in points allowed and fifth in rebounding while finishing second in the Eastern Conference with a 50-32 record. The Knicks defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2 in the first round before losing 4-3 to the Indiana Pacers. Bridges' superior defense and his three point shooting could have made a difference versus the Pacers, and could also be valuable in a playoff series versus the NBA champion Boston Celtics. 

Two players have won two NBA titles in the past five years: Jrue Holiday (Milwaukee Bucks 2021, Boston Celtics 2024) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (L.A. Lakers 2020, Denver Nuggets 2023). Holiday and Caldwell-Pope are athletic perimeter players who can guard multiple positions and shoot three pointers efficiently. Bridges fits that mold.

A prevailing NBA narrative suggests that first round draft picks are worth their weight in gold. That is why "stat gurus" and media members mocked the Minnesota Timberwolves for giving up four first round draft picks plus other assets to Utah in exchange for Rudy Gobert in 2022--but after making that deal the Jazz missed the playoffs the past two seasons and are sliding backwards in the standings; in contrast, Gobert anchored a Minnesota defense that led the league in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage in 2023-24 en route to the Timberwolves advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2004. Maybe the Jazz will pan for gold someday with the first round draft picks that they obtained, but it is worth noting that even owning the number one overall draft pick provides no guarantee of striking it rich: the last number one overall draft pick who won an NBA title with the team that drafted him is Kyrie Irving (selected first in the 2011 NBA Draft), and he only enjoyed that success after LeBron James returned to Cleveland. Other number one overall draft picks since 2000 include Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden, John Wall, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, and Deandre Ayton; put all of those players on the same team in their respective primes and you still do not have a championship contending team!

Teams that have superior scouting departments and excellent player development programs find and develop winning players much more consistently than teams that hoard first round draft picks without having a coherent plan for how to build a superior roster--not to mention the fact that the NBA is in the entertainment business and charges premium rates for tickets and for broadcast rights, which in turn means that the league and its teams have an obligation to the paying customers to put the best possible product on the floor. The Nets, like the Jazz and other teams that have given up proven players to obtain draft picks, will not likely be putting an attractive product on the floor next season.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks, tanking

posted by David Friedman @ 3:02 PM

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Is J.J. Redick the Next Pat Riley?

After firing Darvin Ham and being rebuffed by first choice Dan Hurley, the L.A. Lakers are gambling a reported $32 million over the next four years that J.J. Redick is the next Pat Riley--but their recent record of hiring and firing coaches provides little reason for optimism, as Phil Jackson has proven to be a tough act to follow. Since Jackson left the L.A. Lakers after the 2010-11 season, the Lakers have had seven different head coaches prior to Redick: Mike Brown, Bernie Bickerstaff, Mike D'Antoni, Byron Scott, Luke Walton, Frank Vogel, and Darvin Ham. Vogel--who led the Lakers to the 2020 "bubble" title--and Walton are the only members of that group who lasted three seasons on the job.

Vogel was by far the most successful Lakers coach post-Jackson, leading the Lakers to a 52-19 regular season record (.732 winning percentage) in 2020 en route to winning the franchise's first and only championship since Kobe Bryant carried the Lakers to repeat titles in 2009 and 2010. The Lakers fired Vogel after the Lakers lost in the first round in 2021 and then missed the playoffs in 2022. 

In Requiem for the 2022 L.A. Lakers, I analyzed several issues facing the team, many of which are still issues two years later: most notably, LeBron James' lack of consistent defensive effort and his focus on so many things other than team success limit the effectiveness of his leadership--and this is further complicated by the reality that James' friends in the media make sure that James is immune from any criticism regarding the Lakers' failure to live up to reasonable expectations. 

James and his media allies often lament that the Lakers have not surrounded James with better three point shooters, despite the evidence clearly showing that James' sole title run with the Lakers had nothing to do with three point shooting. The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. Contrary to revisionist history, their winning formula had nothing to do with surrounding James with three point shooters; they ranked 23rd in three point field goals made and 21st in three point field goal percentage--and it's not like they caught fire from beyond the arc during their playoff run: they ranked 12th out of the 16 playoff teams in playoff three point field goal percentage.

James and Redick have hosted a podcast together for the past few months, and it is evident that the podcast served as an interview process for James to decide who the Lakers would hire to replace Ham. James publicly denies having any input in the Lakers' firing and hiring decisions, but that is beyond disingenuous: star NBA players are consulted about such decisions as a matter of course, and James demonstrably has more influence on such decisions than most other NBA stars.

James' media allies portray Redick as a basketball savant positioned to become the next Pat Riley. Riley became the L.A. Lakers' head coach early in the 1981-82 season despite having no head coaching experience; he led the Lakers to four championships (1982, 1985, 1987-88), and then he coached the Miami Heat to the 2006 championship. The obvious difference between Riley and Redick is that Riley worked in the trenches as a Lakers assistant coach for a couple seasons before becoming the head coach, while Redick has spent more time cultivating a social media following than he has spent in the trenches as a coach (his only head coaching experience to this point is with his son's youth league team).

Redick was the consensus 2006 NCAA Player of the Year before having a long career as an NBA role player, but his resume as a player and James' tacit endorsement do not guarantee that this will work out well for the Lakers. It will be fascinating to see how the other Lakers react to being coached by the inexperienced Redick with James pulling the marionette strings even more blatantly than James has with previous coaches.

Redick displayed both his arrogance in general and his specific ignorance about basketball history when he made disrespectful comments about Bob Cousy, and Cousy correctly retorted that Redick is an example of someone who attacks people with superior credibility and skills because he is deficient in both departments. Redick's arrogance and smug demeanor are apparent every time he opens his mouth; you can get away with thinking that you are the smartest person in the room if you really are the smartest person in the room, but if you are not the smartest person in the room then that act gets old very quickly. The extent to which Redick (1) is ignorant about basketball history, and (2) relies on "advanced basketball statistics" are both strong indicators that Redick is not quite as smart as he thinks he is.

Deep knowledge of basketball history may not be essential to being a successful coach--though I would argue that such knowledge can be a powerful tool in terms of understanding the evolution of the game--but arrogance combined with ignorance is toxic. Based on his public NBA commentary, Redick seems smitten with a very narrow view of basketball tactics focused on "advanced basketball statistics." That kind of biased and limited thinking has not helped Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie or Sam Presti to win even one NBA title during a combined 38 years of running NBA front offices, and it is not likely to help the Lakers win a championship with Redick at the helm steering the Lakers toward making decisions based on "advanced basketball statistics."

It is worth noting that James' greatest success as an NBA player--when he won two championships, won back to back regular season MVPs, won back to back NBA Finals MVPs, and made four straight trips to the NBA Finals--happened during his four years in Miami, the only franchise that did not give James free reign over the front office's decision making processes. Riley runs the Heat, which includes making personnel decisions, and not letting James--or any other player--undermine the authority of Coach Erik Spoelstra. In contrast, James has exercised large influence on coaching and personnel decisions in Cleveland and L.A., where he has won a combined two championships in 17 seasons while compiling a 2-4 NBA Finals record with four non-playoff seasons and two first round exits. 

Thus, there is a large body of evidence spanning 21 years showing that James--even when in his absolute prime--fared much better when he did not have his fingerprints on every organizational decision. The Lakers have lost their last two playoff series with a combined 1-8 record, and it is doubtful that they can substantially improve the roster around James and his hand-picked sidekick Anthony Davis, so it will be fascinating to watch James and Redick attempt to coach the Lakers past the first round of the 2025 playoffs.

Last season, the Lakers ranked second in field goal percentage, eighth in three point field goal percentage, and sixth in scoring, so it is incorrect to assert that offense is their primary issue. In order to become more successful, the Lakers must improve their lackluster defense--last season they ranked 17th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed--and they must improve their rebounding (last season they ranked 18th in that category, a marked decline from ranking ninth during their 2020 championship season). Defense starts with (1) a good scheme designed by the coaching staff to maximize the team's matchup advantages and minimize the impact of matchup disadvantages, and (2) the team's best players putting forth maximum defensive effort, setting the right example for the rest of the team to follow.

Thus, intelligent Lakers fans should be concerned that during Redick's introductory press conference on Monday he focused on ways that he plans to change the Lakers' offense, including using Anthony Davis as a "hub"--presumably, a playmaker a la Nikola Jokic--and encouraging LeBron James to be a high volume three point shooter. Although James shot a career-high .410 from three point range last season, offense is not where the Lakers struggled last season, and deploying one of the greatest drivers in pro basketball history as a three point shooter is unlikely to help the team's offense or the team's overall performance; if Davis is going to be the Lakers' Jokic and James is going to be Michael Porter Jr. then who is going to be Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon? There is a cliche that the NBA is a copycat league, but copying what one team did well when your roster does not have the same skill set strengths is not a recipe for success. The Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title because James and Davis attacked the paint on offense and defended the paint on defense; turning them into a three point shooter and a point center respectively just takes the Lakers even further away from what worked in the best season of James' Lakers career.

The Lakers should be focused on getting stops and then scoring easy baskets in transition, as opposed to trying to dissect a set half court defense with Davis pretending to be Jokic and James settling for being a three point bomber. 

Casual fans know that the 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics ranked first in three point shots made and three point shots attempted while ranking second in three point field goal percentage--but intelligent fans understand that what matters most is that the Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed.

Redick stated that he signed up to lead a "championship caliber" team. A championship team must win four playoff series in one postseason, so that is quite an ambitious goal for a franchise that has won just four playoff series in the past four years. Rest assured that if the Lakers have another season that fails to meet those lofty, unrealistic expectations, Redick--not James--will receive the blame from James' media allies who uncritically accept the narrative that James had no input on the decision to hire Redick.

Labels: Anthony Davis, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 AM

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