20 Second Timeout

San Antonio Versus New York Preview

NBA Finals

San Antonio (62-20) vs. New York (53-29)

Season series: Tied, 1-1 (The Knicks also won the 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game versus Spurs, but that game does not count in the regular season standings)

New York can win if…the Knicks win the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs while also limiting the Spurs' opportunities to score in transition off of turnovers. 

The Knicks lead the 2026 NBA playoffs in rebounding differential (9.5 rpg), and the Spurs rank third (4.9 rpg). The Knicks rank fourth in the 2026 playoffs with a 2.5 turnover differential, while the Spurs rank 11th with a -1.39 turnover differential. Obviously, playoff rankings are affected by strength of opposition, but for the Knicks to win this series it is very important for them to have the advantage in both categories because the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in defensive field goal percentage (.413); the Knicks need to have as many possessions as possible because of how difficult it is to score versus the Spurs. 

The Knicks own an 11 game winning streak since trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, and their +262 point differential in those games is the best in NBA history for any 11 game stretch, regular season or playoffs. Overall, the Knicks' +271 point differential in the 2026 playoffs is the best in NBA playoff history for any team prior to the NBA Finals. The Knicks lead the playoffs in scoring (119.9 ppg), points allowed (100.6 ppg), point differential (19.3 ppg), and field goal percentage (.512; no other team is shooting better than .480), while ranking third in defensive field goal percentage (.437).  

Jalen Brunson earned the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field as the Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-0. Brunson leads the Knicks in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) and assists (6.6 apg). Brunson has been one of the NBA's top guards ever since the Dallas Mavericks let him walk in free agency in 2022. I'm not sure what kind of "advanced basketball statistics" the Mavericks are using, but breaking up their 2011 championship team, paying Harrison Barnes franchise player money, refusing to pay Brunson $20 million/year (which looks like a bargain now), and trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis are just a few of the unwise decisions made by the team's front office in the past 15 years. 

Karl-Anthony Towns dazzled with his playmaking (team-high 7.5 apg) as the Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, but in the Eastern Conference Finals the Knicks' offense often focused on isolating Brunson to exploit James Harden's horrific defense. Towns still averaged 15.8 ppg, a team-high 12.0 rpg, and 4.0 apg in the series, and his overall playoff averages this year are 16.9 ppg, a team-high 10.6 rpg, and 5.9 apg. 

OG Anunoby ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.7 ppg), second in steals (1.6 spg), and third in rebounding (6.9 rpg) while shooting .577 from the field. He is very valuable because of his size and versatility, and at times he has been the Knicks' best player even though he does not receive the accolades or attention that Brunson and Towns deservedly get for their high level performances.

Josh Hart ranks just fifth on the team in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg), but he is first in steals (1.8 spg), second in rebounding (8.6 rpg), and third in assists (4.6 apg). Hart is not as big as Anunoby, but he can guard multiple positions well while also serving as a secondary playmaker and double figure scorer.

The Knicks' bench was productive in key moments versus the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Landry Shamet averaged 9.8 ppg with shooting splits that look like typographical errors: .750/.917/.800. Mitchell Robinson snagged 11 offensive rebounds in four games. Robinson suffered a mysterious broken right pinky while the Knicks waited for the Western Conference Finals to end; the Knicks provided no details about how the injury happened other than it did not occur during a game or during a practice. Robinson had surgery and is expected to be available for game one of the NBA Finals. His physicality and rebounding are important.

In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but by the end of the regular season I had lost faith in the Knicks while being very impressed by how well the Boston Celtics played even before Jayson Tatum returned, so I picked the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have performed much better in the 2026 playoffs than even I expected when I initially picked them to reach the NBA Finals. 

San Antonio will win because…the Spurs have an incredibly deep and talented roster anchored by Victor Wembanyama, who won the Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in MVP voting in just his third NBA season. 

Wembanyama's first playoff run has been exceptional: he leads the Spurs in scoring (23.2 ppg), rebounding (10.8 rpg), and blocked shots (league-leading 3.5 bpg) despite ranking just fourth on the squad in minutes (32.5 mpg). He can score from anywhere on the court, as his playoff shooting splits (.510/.370/.870) indicate, but his biggest impact is on defense; he leads the league in a category that has not even been officially named yet but could be called "Man, I don't think so" because--much like L.L. Cool J felt ambivalent about going to California--ballhandlers take one look at Wembanyama lurking in the paint and decide "Man, I don't think so" in terms of challenging him at the rim. Decades ago, it was said of Bill Russell that what mattered even more than how many shots he blocked and altered were how many shots were not even taken due to his presence. It is fair to say that Wembanyama has that type of looming presence of doom in the paint, and even though conventional wisdom is that the best way to attack a shotblocker is to go straight into his body we do not see too many players opting to directly challenge Wembanyama. 

Wembanyama has said that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook, and it is evident that he takes after Westbrook in terms of being a beloved teammate who is fiercely competitive and not trying to make friends with opposing players. The pace at which Wembanyama's NBA body and mind have developed is breathtaking; last season he played in just 46 regular season games as the Spurs limped to a 34-48 record, but this season he played in 64 games while leading the Spurs to the league's second best record. Sometimes, young teams led by a young superstar fail to live up to expectations during the playoffs, but the Spurs dethroned the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder by beating the Thunder 111-103 at Oklahoma City in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama averaged 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895 to win the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Wembanyama is not a one man team, though; his supporting cast is young but athletic and tough. During the Western Conference Finals, Stephon Castle led the Spurs in assists (7.6 apg) while ranking second in scoring (18.0 ppg), and fifth in rebounding (5.0 rpg). The only negative is that he led the team in turnovers (4.6 tpg) by a wide margin.

Devin Vassell ranked third on the team in scoring in the Western Conference Finals (13.9 ppg), led the team in three point field goals made (21) and steals (1.7 spg), and ranked second in three point field goal percentage (.396).

Rookie guard Dylan Harper contributed 12.0 ppg (fourth on the team) and 5.7 rpg (third on the team) in the Western Conference Finals, while Julian Champagnie added 11.9 ppg, ranked second on the team with 18 three point field goals made, and ranked second in rebounding (6.1 rpg).

De'Aaron Fox missed the first two games of the Western Conference Finals due to a sprained right ankle, but in the five games he played he chipped in 11.2 ppg, 6.2 apg (second on the team), and 5.2 rpg (fourth on the team). The 28 year old is the oldest player in the Spurs' seven man rotation.

Keldon Johnson, the NBA's 2026 Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 9.9 ppg in the Western Conference Finals, and he had 11 points on 4-8 field goal shooting in 16 minutes in game seven, including a team-high eight points on 3-3 field goal shooting in a tightly contested fourth quarter.

The Spurs' rangy and speedy perimeter players are very aggressive defensively because they know that Wembanyama will deter or erase any field goal attempts in the paint. 

Other things to consider: Towns is a fascinating player because he has enough talent to do anything on a basketball court; he is limited only by his imagination and his focus level. In his 2016 book Success is the Only Option: The Art of Coaching Extreme Talent, John Calipari (Towns' college coach at Kentucky) discussed at length the methods he used to get the most out of Towns in college while preparing him for a long, high level NBA career (pp. 46-49):

Karl's talent was obvious but he liked to roam around the perimeter, near the three point line, rather than going down low and mixing it up with the big guys. In high school, he attempted a ton of three-point shots and hit for a decent percentage. When he got to Kentucky, that was still his inclination. The finesse game. It was pretty to watch and it would have helped us plenty; after all, players who can shoot the ball form distance are always welcome.

But I wouldn't accept it. We said, "You're going to get in the post [and] you're going to learn to battle." There have been big players in the NBA, six foot ten and up, who are good outside shooters but shy away from physicality down low. They never amount to as much as they could. And then there are guys like Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone, excellent jump shooters who were also skilled and relentless around the hoop. Even Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer and one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, has terrific post moves...

Malone is in the Hall of Fame and Garnett and Nowitkzi will join him the moment they're eligible [Garnett was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2021 as a member of the 2020 class, and Nowitzki was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023]. That's the future I envisioned for Karl, but I knew I had him at a formative moment. A window can close on young players. The danger is that they will achieve what may feel like a high level of success without ever having to reach down and develop all aspects of their games...

Karl was invested in being a nice guy. Great, I'd tell him. I love being around you. Everybody does, and hold on to that. But it can't be your persona on the court. I'm never going to accept anything less from you and just shrug it off and say, "Oh, that's just Karl being Karl." 

Towns has made the All-Star team six times in his 11 year NBA career, including each of his three seasons with the Knicks, and he has been selected to the All-NBA Third Team three times, most recently in 2024-25. He has finished second in the league in rebounding each of the past two seasons, and he also has the 19th best career three point field goal percentage (.397) among active players. Towns is capable of using his three point shooting to draw Wembanyama away from the paint, but he is also capable of battling him for rebounds and posting him up. The Knicks will likely use several different players to guard Wembanyama, but Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series.   

Regular season head to head matchups between teams often do not mean much by the playoffs because so much can change in even just a few months. The Knicks beat the Spurs 124-113 in the NBA Cup Championship Game on December 16, 2025 at a neutral site (Las Vegas), but at that time Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in just his second game back after missing 12 games due to injury. The NBA does not count the NBA Cup Championship Game in the regular season standings, and that game likely did not provide much evidence regarding what will happen in the NBA Finals--but it is worth noting that the Knicks won by dominating the rebounding battle 59-42 with four players each grabbing more rebounds than any Spur: Robinson (15 rebounds), Towns (11), Anunoby (nine), and Hart (eight). The Spurs edged the Knicks 134-132 at San Antonio on December 31, 2025; this time, the Spurs outrebounded the Knicks 48-40. In the third and final meeting between the teams on March 1, 2026, the Knicks routed the Spurs 114-89 at Madison Square Garden, outrebounding the Spurs 54-41. 

The Knicks' 2026 playoff run so far is unprecedented, but the Spurs' showed the best version of themselves at both ends of the court while eliminating a powerful (albeit shorthanded) Thunder team. I predict that San Antonio will win in six games.

Labels: Devin Vassell, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:13 AM

0 comments

Spurs Silence Thunder in Game Seven to Advance to NBA Finals

In game seven of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs started fast, finished strong, and wore down the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, winning 111-103 on the Thunder's home court. Victor Wembanyama is without question the Spurs' best player, and he came through with a team-high 22 points plus a team-high tying seven rebounds, but this was very much a team effort: all five starters plus two reserves scored in double figures, including Julian Champagnie (20 points while shooting 6-10 from three point range), Stephon Castle (16 points, six rebounds, team-high six assists), De'Aaron Fox (15 points, five assists), Dylan Harper (12 points, team-high tying seven rebounds), Devin Vassell (11 points, six rebounds), and Keldon Johnson (11 points). The Spurs enjoyed narrow edges in rebounding (40-38) and turnovers (committing 12 while forcing 14), but won this game with their energy and force in transition, outscoring the Thunder 19-7 in fast break points.

The Spurs received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship, and Wembanyama earned the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), Luka Doncic (2024), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025). Wembanyama's Western Conference Finals numbers display his all-around dominance: 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895. Wembanyama is the first player to make at least 15 three pointers and block at least 15 shots in the same playoff series, and he is the youngest player to lead his team in scoring and rebounding entering the NBA Finals.

The Thunder, who took a 3-2 series lead despite dropping game one at home, played from behind for most of game seven and could not muster enough offense, shooting 37-83 (.446) from the field--including just 12-35 (.343) from beyond the arc--after ranking fifth in the league in scoring (119.0 ppg), fifth in field goal percentage (.484) and ninth in three point field goal percentage (.365) during the regular season. Throughout this series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played below his usual standard, but he performed at an MVP level in game seven, finishing with a game-high 35 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high nine assists; however, he looked drained by the fourth quarter, and he had only four points on 2-4 field goal shooting in the final stanza. Cason Wallace played well (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) while starting in place of injured 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, but the other three starters combined for 14 points on 5-13 field goal shooting. Chet Holmgren, who earned his first selections to the All-Star team, All-NBA Third Team, and All-Defensive First Team this season, had four points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 34 minutes. There is no doubt that the Thunder expected and needed more from Holmgren than he provided in this game, but it is worth recalling that Dennis Johnson shot 0-14 from the field in game seven of the 1978 NBA Finals, and then earned the 1979 Finals MVP after capturing the first of three NBA titles that he won during his Hall of Fame career; one bad performance by a young player early in his career is not necessarily a reason to completely give up on him (which is not meant to suggest that I expect Holmgren to become as great a player as Johnson).

It takes nothing away from how well the Spurs played in this series--and particularly how they met the challenge after losing game five--to acknowledge that being without Jalen Williams and his replacement Ajay Mitchell (who averaged 15.1 ppg in 11 playoff games this year) proved to be too much for the Thunder to overcome. The Thunder were 2-1 with Mitchell in the Western Conference Finals and 1-3 without him; this is not just about Mitchell's numbers but about the domino effect that his absence had on the Thunder's rotation plus the extra ballhandling responsibilities that Gilgeous-Alexander had to assume with both Williams and Mitchell not available. 

Injuries are part of the game, though, and attrition is a major reason why it is so difficult to win back to back titles.

The Spurs led 10-4 by the 9:11 mark of the first quarter, and were ahead 27-13 with 5:07 remaining in first quarter. We have seen some teams just quit--even on their home court--after getting hit in the mouth, but the Thunder will never be mistaken for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder cut the margin to 32-25 by the end of the first quarter. The Spurs led by as much as 11 in the second quarter, but the Thunder fought back to tie the score at 49 on a Lu Dort three pointer with 2:17 remaining. Holmgren drained a pair of free throws to give the Thunder their biggest lead of the game, 53-49, before the Spurs closed the half on a 7-0 run in the final 54 seconds. 

Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault tried to boost his team's sagging offense by changing his second half starting lineup, inserting Jaylin Williams and Alex Caruso in place of Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort. Caruso had a very good series overall and he was the Thunder's second leading scorer (14.9 ppg) versus the Spurs, but in this game he had 12 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. The Thunder briefly led by three in the third quarter, but the Spurs were on top for the final 19:33 of the game.

Johnson's layup with 8:00 left in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 97-86, and that play might have been the breaking point for many teams, but the Thunder answered with a Hartenstein three point play plus a Gilgeous-Alexander turnaround jumper to slash the lead to 97-91 at the 6:49 mark. Wembanyama committed his fifth foul on the Hartenstein score, and the Spurs replaced him with Luke Kornet during a timeout with 6:48 remaining. This seemed to be an opportunity for the Thunder to do some damage with Wembanyama on the bench. Hartenstein stole a pass on the Spurs' next possession and was poised to deliver a fast break dunk to put the Thunder within four points--but Kornet made perhaps the biggest play of the game, a spectacular chasedown blocked shot that the Spurs soon turned into a Castle jump shot to make the score 99-91. The Spurs led by at least six points the rest of the way. 

Wembanyama, who proudly wears his emotions on his sleeve, cried after the final buzzer sounded. Good for him for showing how much winning means to him. He appears to have the right mix of confidence, team-oriented mindset, and passion for the game to be an all-time great--but that is something that must be proven with sustained excellence.

You may recall Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson claiming that "analytically" his team won two of the first three games of a series in which his squad was swept, losing by double digit margins in each game; after the fourth loss, Atkinson's main man James Harden insisted that the Cavaliers are a better team than the New York Knicks. In the wake of those delusional and self-serving remarks, it was refreshing to hear Gilgeous-Alexander's take on his team's game seven loss: "They were just the better team tonight from start to finish." A big part of being a champion is understanding how to lose, and how to learn from losses--and delusion is not part of that equation.

This was an entertaining and well played series overall, even though the last five games were each decided by double digit margins. Rivalries make sports special--some of my favorite basketball memories involve the annual showdowns between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics in the early 1980s as Julius Erving and Larry Bird battled for individual and team supremacy--so let's hope that we are fortunate enough to see a few more Spurs-Thunder playoff matchups featuring Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander as the headliners. This was the first time that two top top three MVP finishers faced off in the Conference Finals since Erving and Bird squared off in 1981 and 1982.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

4 comments

Knicks Crush Cavaliers to Reach NBA Finals for the First Time Since 1999

The New York Knicks led the Cleveland Cavaliers 38-26 at the end of the first quarter of game four of the Eastern Conference Finals before cruising to a 130-93 win to complete a 4-0 Eastern Conference Finals sweep. Six Knicks scored in double figures, with Karl-Anthony Towns leading the way (team-high 19 points, game-high 14 rebounds). OG Anunoby scored 17 points, Landry Shamet added 16 points off of the bench, and Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges each had 15 points and five assists. Miles "Deuce" McBride chipped in 11 points in a reserve role, and Josh Hart had another solid all-around game (six points, 11 rebounds, six assists). The outcome was decided early due to a combination of New York's great play and the Cavaliers blatantly quitting; as a result, Brunson, Bridges, and Hart did not play in the fourth quarter.

In short, if the occasion had called for it, Brunson could have easily scored 30 points, and his teammates could have added to their statistics as well--which is yet another example of how foolish it is to evaluate players based solely on numbers without looking at the larger context. Kenny Smith calls a player who pads his numbers on a bad team a "looter in a riot," because even a bad team will likely have a 20 ppg scorer just because of the nature of the NBA game (and the use of the shot clock). One cannot (or should not) assume that individual numbers compiled in one context can also be compiled in a different context. The Dallas Mavericks have long bragged about being in the forefront of the so-called "analytics" revolution, but it is not clear if "analytics" took the Mavericks to the top or dragged them down from the top. In 2011, Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks to their lone NBA title, but the Mavericks promptly broke up his supporting cast and then more than a decade later they made two very questionable major personnel decisions; the Lakers appreciate the gift of Luka Doncic, and the Knicks very much appreciate the gift of Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks received the Bob Cousy Trophy for winning the Eastern Conference Championship. Brunson averaged 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field in the Eastern Conference Finals en route to capturing the 2026 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; previous honorees include Jayson Tatum (2022), Jimmy Butler (2023), Jaylen Brown (2024), and Pascal Siakam (2025).

Coach Mike Brown, who has received much unwarranted criticism from uninformed media members, deserves a lot of credit for lifting an already very good team to the next level by not only implementing productive changes at both ends of the court but also by instilling a group feeling of camaraderie--but chemistry cannot be quantified, so the "stat gurus" refuse to believe that it matters or even exists. 

In my NBA Finals Preview, I will further discuss the Knicks' remarkable 2026 playoff run--which now includes a record three elimination game wins by at least 20 points each--but a lot needs to be said about the Cleveland Cavaliers, a fully healthy team with the league's highest payroll that overtly quit versus the Knicks; the Knicks deserve full credit for how well they are playing, but when a team repeatedly fails to get back on defense and repeatedly fails to make basic defensive rotations in the half court that team has quit, and that is what we saw from the Cavaliers at the end of game three and then carrying over into game four.

In game four, Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 31 points on 9-18 field goal shooting, but that was not nearly enough to even keep the game close--and several of his highly touted teammates were conspicuous in their absence. No, Evan Mobley (15 points, seven rebounds, four assists, no blocked shots) is not the next Tim Duncan. No, Jarrett Allen (six points, three rebounds)--who played well in Cleveland's two game seven wins earlier in this year's playoffs--is not dependable enough. Mitchell was the only main Cleveland player who met reasonable performance expectations in the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging 27.3 ppg on .475 field goal shooting, albeit with shaky floor game numbers (2.3 apg, 3.5 tpg).

Then, of course, there is the ongoing playoff saga of James Harden--and don't fall for the propaganda that he is getting old: he played fine during this regular season, and he has been falling apart during the playoffs throughout his career. His elimination game record since fleeing Oklahoma City in 2012 is now 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. Recent examples include scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025

After the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words "James Harden disappeared" and "James Harden scored just xxx second half points."  As I predicted, James Harden disappeared, and James Harden scored just zero second half points on 0-3 field goal shooting, finally reaching a nadir that not even he can surpass and adding yet another pathetic line to his horrific elimination game resume.

The Cavaliers acquired Harden to be the difference, and he was, because the Cavaliers have taken on his playoff identity: shoot bad shots at a low percentage (.416 field goal percentage in game four, .426 field goal percentage in the four games overall), make careless turnovers, don't hustle back on defense, and then quit in an elimination game. Harden and the Cavaliers checked off every one of those boxes. Harden provided yet another playoff game with a "concert tour" field goal percentage (2-8 for a chilly February outing), a "Harden" (a game with more turnovers than field goals made--here, a game-high five turnovers versus just two field goals made), and lackadaisical defense. As Shaquille O'Neal said at halftime, "James is doing what he usually does--disappear." Harden finished with 12 points, four assists, and five turnovers. He shot 0-6 from beyond the arc, and if the Knicks had not charitably fouled him (why foul a guy who can't make a shot?) to give him eight free points then he would not have even reached double figures in scoring. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Harden averaged 16.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting (including .179 from three point range) with 3.0 apg and 4.3 tpg. It is difficult to win when your floor general with a supposedly genius-level basketball IQ can't make a shot, has more turnovers than assists, and is the opposing team's number one target to attack on defense.

"Stat gurus" love Harden, and they love lavishing outrageously false praise on him. Kirk Goldsberry called Harden "the greatest scorer of this NBA era," a ludicrous notion that I debunked in 2019. Daryl Morey declared that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

The Cavaliers clearly relied on such delusional thinking when they acquired Harden, and it is evident that delusional thinking pervades the organization. All you need to know about the misapplication of "advanced basketball statistics" can be summarized in this quote from Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson, who declared that "analytically" his Cavaliers won two of the first three games versus the Knicks. In the real world of real numbers, the Cavaliers lost the first three games before quitting in game four, and every game was decided by at least 11 points (the first game went to overtime after the Cavaliers squandered a 22 point fourth quarter lead). Analytically, it would appear that Cleveland's 22 point lead was the outlier in this three game sample size, because otherwise the Knicks outplayed, outcoached, outshot, and outhustled the Cavaliers.

When you are delusional enough to think that you are winning on a spreadsheet despite getting destroyed on the basketball court, you are not smart enough or self-aware enough to make decisions that will lead to winning a championship.

Let's be perfectly clear: it is smart to use statistics with understanding and in the larger context of how basketball is played/should be played--but there are a lot of "stat gurus" who have made a lot of money peddling fish oil as NBA executives and media members without having a clue about how to evaluate players or teams, and those are the people whose faulty thinking I have been refuting for decades.

It is true that the Cavaliers advanced one round farther this year than they did last year, but they did that despite Harden more so than because of him--and the Cavaliers did not assemble the most expensive roster in the league to fall eight wins short of capturing the NBA title. Just like this season was "NBA Finals or bust" for the Knicks, the same was true (or should have been true) for the Cavaliers.   

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kenny Atkinson, Mike Brown, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:33 AM

6 comments

Knicks Outplay and Outcoach Cavaliers to Take 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals Lead

After trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, the New York Knicks have apparently morphed into some combination of Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-Magic Johnson L.A. Lakers, the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls, the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers, and the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors. I am not suggesting that the Knicks are as good as any of those fabled championship teams, nor am I even predicting that the Knicks will win the 2026 NBA championship--but it is worth noting that the Knicks have already accomplished things that none of those teams accomplished, including posting the best point differential in a 10 game span in NBA playoff history, winning three consecutive playoff games by at least 25 points, opening a series with a 35-plus point win after ending a series with a 35-plus point win, and building a 47 point halftime lead in a playoff game. 

The Knicks may not be one of the greatest teams of all-time, but their statistical profile matches or even exceeds the statistical profiles of many dominant championship teams. The Knicks own a nine game playoff winning streak, and have a 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers as that series shifts to Cleveland for games three and four. The Knicks led game one 23-16 at the end of the first quarter but then they did not just hit cruise control--they hit snooze control, falling into a 93-71 hole with 7:52 remaining in the fourth quarter. What happened next is one of the greatest comebacks (or greatest collapses, depending on your perspective) in NBA playoff history, as the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 44-11 the rest of the way en route to a 115-104 overtime win. 

The Knicks turned things around with a brutally direct offensive tactic: Jalen Brunson attacked James Harden one on one, and if the Cavaliers had a different primary defender on Brunson then the Knicks used whoever Harden was guarding as a screener to force a switch putting Harden on Brunson. Brunson scored 15 fourth quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting, and he finished with a game-high 38 points on 15-29 field goal shooting. We have seen many playoff duels featuring two players trading baskets, but it is unusual to see a player touted as one of the greatest guards ever being torched one on one this way. Harden had 15 points on 5-16 field goal shooting along with three assists and a team-high six turnovers, yet another "Harden" game; media members have apparently only recently noticed that Harden's playoff trademark is to have more turnovers than field goals made, but I pointed this out three years ago. Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 29 points, but Harden's atrocious defense meant that the Cavaliers were often taking the ball out of the net and playing against the Knicks' set defense as opposed to attacking in transition after rebounds or steals. Harden dominating the ball on offense and getting torched on defense is wonderful for the Knicks and horrible for the Cavaliers, which brings us to the topic of coaching.

New York coach Mike Brown is often maligned, but he is coaching circles around Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson in this series. Brown's defense is making it tough for Cleveland to score, and his offense is exploiting the Cavaliers' defensive weaknesses (mainly Harden). Atkinson was oddly reticent to call a timeout during Cleveland's game one collapse, and his postgame remarks suggested that he is detached from reality, contractually obligated to never criticize Harden, or both. Atkinson kept a straight face while insisting that Harden has been one of Cleveland's best defensive players, and he implausibly suggested that the Cavaliers had played well for three quarters before running into some bad luck late in the game because Brunson hit tough shots. The reality is that Harden has been a traffic cone as a perimeter defender throughout his career (he defends OK in the post, but that is of minimal value for a point guard who is guarding perimeter players), and the Knicks outplayed the Cavalier both early in the game and down the stretch. The Cavaliers maybe had about 15-20 minutes of good basketball, but Atkinson fiddled while Rome burned in the closing moments, and the result had nothing to do with luck.

Naturally, many media members said that the Cavaliers could not recover from losing game one, apparently forgetting that the Cavaliers bounced back from a 2-0 deficit in the previous series to beat Detroit in seven games; the question is not whether the Cavaliers are resilient, but whether the Cavaliers have matchup advantages that will enable them to beat New York four times.  

The Cavaliers took a 13-7 first quarter lead in game two, but the Knicks led 53-49 at halftime, never trailed in the second half, and were up by as much as 19 points before winning, 109-93. The Cavaliers finally stopped letting Brunson torture Harden one on one, but after they trapped Harden they had no effective response to Brunson's passing. Brunson finished with 19 points plus a playoff career-high 14 assists. Many of Brunson's assists went to Josh Hart, who scored a game-high tying 26 points. The Knicks shot .518 from the field, and each starter scored at least 14 points. Brown had been using Karl-Anthony Towns as a point center, but the Cavaliers' defense against Brunson turned Brunson into the primary playmaker, with Hart adding seven assists as well. Towns had 18 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and just one assist; those numbers do not mean that Brown "forgot" about Towns or "doesn't know how to use Towns," but rather that the Knicks exploited the gaping holes in Cleveland's defense in other very effective ways.

Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 26 points, but Harden shot just 6-15 from the field to accumulate 18 points. Harden had no turnovers but also just two assists; the Cavaliers are smart to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible to limit his turnovers, but his inefficient shooting and leaky defense led to a game-worst -22 plus/minus number. The bottom line is that Harden is a defensive liability, and he cannot be hidden in the playoffs versus a good team that is well-coached. Evan Mobley had 14 first half points on 5-8 field goal shooting, but Atkinson, Mitchell, and Harden held Mobley to zero second half points on zero second half field goal attempts.

The Cavaliers are 8-8 in the 2026 playoffs, including 6-1 at home and 2-7 on the road, so I would not be surprised if the Cavaliers win at least one game versus the Knicks in Cleveland, and I will not fall into the common trap of being swayed by what happens from game to game; it is hilarious to listen to people who don't understand basketball--or who are trying to gain attention with hot takes--make outlandish proclamations on the basis of one game. No matter what happened in the previous game, the next game starts 0-0 with a different officiating crew and different circumstances. Playoff basketball is about matchups, and matchup advantages do not change (unless a player gets injured, or is disqualified via fouls or ejection); over the course of a series, I expect the team with the most matchup advantages to prevail, and that is why I expect the Knicks to win this series even though the sweep talk is premature. I picked the Knicks to win in six games, and that still seems reasonable, pending what happens in game three. Harden often has one or two decent games before his final choke of the series, and if he does not collapse in game three then the Cavaliers may hit enough shots to win.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 PM

2 comments

Thunder Go Big, Beat Spurs to Tie Western Conference Finals at 1-1

After Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs dominated the paint in a 122-115 overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in game one of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder faced a must-win situation in game two. In game one, Wembanyama led both teams in points (41), rebounds (24), and blocked shots (three) as the Spurs outscored the Thunder 52-38 in the paint and outrebounded the Thunder 61-40; the Thunder went small in game one, with starting center Isaiah Hartenstein playing just 12 minutes after averaging 24.2 mpg during the regular season as he led the squad in rebounding (9.4 rpg) for the second consecutive year.

Hartenstein played 27 minutes in game two and led the Thunder with 13 rebounds as the Thunder won 122-113. Hartenstein's bump and run defense on Wembanyama resulted in the young phenom having 21 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, six assists, and a game-high four blocked shots; those are excellent numbers for most players, but those are also numbers that the Thunder can live with from Wembanyama. The Spurs won the rebounding battle again, but only by four (45-41), and the Spurs also only led by four in points in the paint (46-42); the Thunder won the overall possession battle by forcing 21 turnovers while committing just nine turnovers, with the net result being that the Thunder launched 94 field goal attempts while limiting the Spurs to 84. The team field goal percentages were close (.488 for the Spurs, .479 for the Thunder), so the Thunder's extra possessions made a huge difference.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 24 points on 7-23 field goal shooting in game one, led both teams with 30 points and nine assists in game two while shooting 12-24 from the field. Alex Caruso, who erupted for a playoff career-high 31 points in game one, had 17 points in game two. Chet Holmgren added 13 points, while Jared McCain and Cason Wallace had 12 points each to help the Thunder overcome the loss of 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, who played just seven minutes before leaving the game after reinjuring the left hamstring that caused him to miss six of the Thunder's 10 playoff games this year.

Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (25 points) and assists (eight) but he had a game-high nine turnovers after committing 11 turnovers in game one. He set the record for most turnovers in consecutive playoff games since the NBA began officially tracking turnovers during the 1977-78 season. Castle has been forced into the primary ballhandling role because De'Aaron Fox missed both games due to a right ankle sprain. The Spurs' elite backcourt had another setback in the third quarter when Dylan Harper suffered a right leg injury that forced him to miss the rest of the game.

The injuries to key players on both teams could affect the outcome of the series, but the Thunder are probably better positioned than the Spurs to withstand injuries not only because the Thunder have more depth and more playoff experience but also because they posted the best regular season record despite Williams playing in just 33 out of 82 games: the Thunder have been forced to learn how to win without their second best player.

Commentators who declared the series to be over after game one apparently could not comprehend the simple fact that the Spurs needed overtime to beat the Thunder with the Thunder playing beneath their normal level and with Wembanyama putting up boxscore numbers not seen in the playoffs since Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O'Neal were in their prime years; unless one assumed that Wembanyama would average 40-20 while the Thunder shot less than .410 from the field it should have been obvious that the Thunder would bounce back strongly in game two, particularly if the Thunder had enough sense to stop trotting out small lineups. 

It is worth noting that during last year's championship run the Thunder lost game one in two of their four playoff series. In the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers won game one and took a 2-1 lead over the Thunder after Thunder coach Mark Daigneault made the mistake of going small in the first three games, benching center Isaiah Hartenstein in favor of Cason Wallace. Daigneault started Hartenstein over Wallace in the Thunder's 111-104 game four win, and kept Hartenstein in the starting lineup the rest of the way en route to the Thunder winning the series, 4-3; the Thunder went 3-1 with their traditional double big man lineup, and they went 1-2 with their small lineup.

Going small is a move that many media members often advocate, but the reality is that in most instances a team should go with what they do best as opposed to going small; the two obvious exceptions are (1) when the small lineup is the team's best lineup and (2) when the team is clearly inferior to the extent that any change or disruption is worth a shot. Here, it is odd that Daigneault not only went small for no reason during the 2025 NBA Finals but then made the same mistake in game one versus the Spurs. The Thunder were better than the 2025 Pacers and are better than the 2026 Spurs, and a big reason (pun intended) that the Thunder are better is the effectiveness of their double big lineup featuring Hartenstein and Holmgren. Those two big men protect the paint and provide timely inside presence offensively, enabling the three perimeter players to wreak havoc at both ends of the court. Downsizing hurts the Thunder defensively and on the boards. 

By virtue of seizing homecourt advantage with the game one win, the Spurs have the edge on paper in the Western Conference Finals as the series shifts to San Antonio for the next two games, but the Thunder have the edge on the court if they manage the matchups correctly. Often, the best "adjustment" is to make no adjustment at all--and in this series the Thunder would be best served by not outsmarting themselves with small lineups or any other gimmicks.

Labels: Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahama City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:42 AM

0 comments

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Becomes the Fifth Guard to Win Consecutive NBA Regular Season MVPs

In 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP; now, he is one step closer to repeating that individual "three-peat" this season after capturing the 2026 NBA regular season MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander received 83 out of 100 first place votes and 939 total points from an international media panel, with three-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic (2021, 2022, and 2024) finishing a distant second with 10 first place votes and 634 total points, and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama rounding out the top three (five first place votes, 539 total points).

Gilgeous-Alexander joins Magic Johnson (1989-90), Michael Jordan (1991-92), Steve Nash (2005-06), and Stephen Curry (2015-16) as the only guards to win back to back NBA regular season MVPs. He is the 15th player in pro basketball history to win consecutive regular season MVPs, joining a list that includes (in addition to the guards listed above) Bill Russell (1961-63 NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68 NBA), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-72, 1976-77 NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76 ABA), Moses Malone (1982-83 NBA), Larry Bird (1984-86 NBA), Tim Duncan (2002-03 NBA), LeBron James (2009-10, 2012-13 NBA), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20 NBA), and Nikola Jokic (2021-22).

I analyzed the 2026 regular season MVP race in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions article, concluding, "This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient."

Two seasons ago, Jokic joined Wilt Chamberlain as the only players to rank in the top three in the league in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while becoming the first center and third player overall to average a triple double for an entire season; this season, Jokic averaged 27.7 ppg (eighth in the league), 12.9 rpg (first in the league), and 10.7 apg (first in the league) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.831. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. It is difficult to rationally argue that any player in the league is more versatile and productive than Jokic, and it could be argued that he is as versatile and productive as any player in pro basketball history; the counterarguments would focus on defense (which--other than defensive rebounding--is not captured by the above statistics) and on the reality that the NBA currently (1) has diluted its talent by expanding to 30 teams and (2) is plagued by up to a third of the teams tanking, which results in distorted statistics for the teams that are not tanking (and, consequently, for the players on those teams).

Wembanyama averaged 25.0 ppg and 11.5 rpg (fourth in the league) while capturing his third straight shotblocking title (3.1 bpg). If he can stay healthy, he could rewrite the record book while transforming the view of a how a big man can or should play.

Gilgeous-Alexander's statistical profile is also remarkable. This season, he became the first guard to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .550 from the field; the closest Michael Jordan came to accomplishing this was when he posted five 30 ppg seasons during which he shot between .519 and .539 from the field, while George Gervin deserves an honorable mention for scoring 33.1 ppg on .528 field goal shooting en route to winning the 1980 scoring title. Gilgeous-Alexander, Chamberlain, and Jordan are the only players who averaged at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field in four consecutive seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander broke Chamberlain's record for consecutive regular season games with at least 20 points (126), pushing the mark to 140 (and counting).

Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and Wembanyama share at least one quality: they each genuinely seem to care more about team success than about individual numbers and accolades. Other players in the league would do well to aspire not so much to match the trio's gaudy statistics but rather the selfless way that they play.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 3:22 PM

8 comments

New York Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#3 New York (53-29) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)

Season series: New York, 2-1

Cleveland can win if…the Cavaliers' defense limits Jalen Brunson's scoring while also shutting down the passing lanes for Karl-Anthony Towns, whose playmaking has unlocked a new level of productivity and efficiency for the Knicks' offense. The Cavaliers will also need to get high level performances from Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.

Mitchell averaged a team-high 28.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 3.6 apg in the second round as the Cavaliers upset the number one seeded Detroit Pistons, and he shined in Cleveland's 125-94 game seven rout at Detroit with a game-high 26 points, a game-high eight assists, six rebounds, and no turnovers. After the Pistons seized a 2-0 series lead, Mitchell scored 35 points and 43 points in the next two games as the Cavaliers tied the series at 2-2 before squeezing out an overtime win on the road to take a 3-2 lead. In Mitchell's 43 point performance--a 112-103 Cleveland win--he only scored four first half points before tying Sleepy Floyd's 1987 playoff record for points in a half (39) to carry the Cavaliers to victory. Overall, Mitchell is averaging a team-high 25.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg in the 2026 playoffs as the Cavaliers have won game seven in back to back series.

Mobley averaged 15.9 ppg, a team-high 7.4 rpg, 4.9 apg, and a team-high 2.7 bpg versus the Pistons. He is averaging 17.0 ppg, a team-high 8.0 rpg, 4.1 apg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs. Mobley has not developed into the Tim Duncan-level MVP performer that Cleveland fans hoped/dreamed that he would become, but he is a versatile big man who is capable of impacting the game in many ways at both ends of the court.

Charles Barkley criticized Allen for being too nice and too soft to be a dominant player, but Allen came up big in both of Cleveland's game seven wins: he had a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Cavaliers defeated Toronto 114-102, and then he contributed 23 points, seven rebounds, and one blocked shot as the Cavaliers shut down the Pistons. Allen averaged 14.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 1.4 bpg versus the Pistons, and he is averaging 13.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs. 

James Harden ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (20.1 ppg) and first in assists (6.2 apg), but he also has the second highest turnover average in the playoffs (4.8 tpg) while shooting just .415 from the field. Harden once bragged of his offensive prowess, "I'm not a system player; I am a system," but the reality is that Harden generates too many empty possessions on offense while being a traffic cone as a perimeter defender (he uses his strength and quick hands to be a solid defender in the paint on the occasions when he gets back on defense). 

In my Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview, I emphasized Harden's awful elimination game resume:

His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume prior to 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors. 

The Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018 despite Harden scoring just 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) in their two game seven wins, as Harden's elimination game resume grows (or shrinks, depending on how one looks at this). 

It is often said that Harden has a high basketball IQ--but a player with a high basketball IQ would not consistently commit careless turnovers during the most important playoff games. Many commentators make excuses for Harden's recent playoff failures by citing his age, but the record demonstrates that Harden was a playoff choker as a young player and during his prime, so his collapses in the biggest playoff moments cannot and should not be attributed to age or to any factor other than a serious shortcoming in Harden's mentality for such high leverage games. 

Harden may produce some good or at least decent performances early in this series, but the Cavaliers cannot count on him if the series extends to six or seven games. If the Cavaliers beat the Knicks they will do so despite Harden, not because of him. There is a heavy burden on Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen to perform not just at the All-Star level that is rightfully expected of them but even higher than that to compensate for Harden's shortcomings. The Cavaliers acquired Harden to be the difference, and he has caused internal problems on previous teams when he did not like his role, so no matter how poorly he plays it is not likely that coach Kenny Atkinson will limit Harden's role or his minutes. Harden leads the Cavaliers in playoff minutes (37.4 mpg) 

New York will win because…the Knicks are the most dominant team in the 2026 NBA playoffs, ranking first in point differential (19.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.517), and three point field goal percentage (.408) while ranking second in scoring (120.4 ppg) and points allowed (101.0 ppg).

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (29.0 ppg) as the Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round, and his shooting splits during that series (.513/.448/.920) were exceptional. Overall during the 2026 playoffs, he is pacing the Knicks with 27.4 ppg with shooting splits of .485/.409/.864. Brunson is undersized and not a great defensive player, but his efficient clutch shooting makes up for his deficiencies. He is also a good playmaker, ranking second on the team with 6.0 apg versus the 76ers, and he had just seven turnovers in four games.

Karl-Anthony Towns made the All-Star team six times--including each of the last three seasons--as a high scoring big man who also rebounds well, but during the 2026 playoffs he has become an elite passing big man. He led the Knicks with 7.5 apg versus the 76ers while also averaging 15.5 ppg on .618 field goal shooting and ranking second on the team with 8.0 rpg. He is averaging 17.4 ppg, a team-high 10.0 rpg, and a team-high 6.6 apg during the 2026 playoffs. Towns' playmaking may be the biggest surprise of the playoffs; he had never averaged more than 2.6 apg in the playoffs and his playoff single game career-high in assists had been five, but in the 2026 playoffs he has logged his first two postseason triple doubles while posting at least six assists in seven of the Knicks' 10 playoff games.

OG Anunoby averaged 21.0 ppg with a team-high .640 field goal percentage in the first two games versus the 76ers before missing games three and four with a right hamstring strain. He is expected to be available for the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Anunoby leads the Knicks in playoff steals (1.9 spg) while ranking second in scoring (21.4 ppg) and blocked shots (1.1 bpg), and third in rebounding (7.5 rpg).

Mikal Bridges (17.5 ppg on .638 field goal shooting) and Josh Hart (10.5 ppg, team-high 8.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, team-high 2.0 spg) also had strong performances versus the 76ers.

Other things to consider: It is fascinating to watch narratives evolve to fit agendas. Before the playoffs began, the Atlanta Hawks were characterized as a dangerous team that could be tough to beat. After the Hawks took a 2-1 lead in their first round series versus the Knicks, commentators could not decide whether to praise the Hawks or blast the Knicks. Then, the Knicks reeled off three straight wins, and the new narrative became that the Hawks were not a very challenging opponent.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years, and the hype machine ramped up after they came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the first round. Media members love to praise Joel Embiid and "The Process," insisting that if Embiid can stay healthy then the 76ers could beat anyone in a seven game series. Spoiler alert: Embiid never stays healthy, and his career playoff series record is 6-8, including 0-6 in the second round. 

The Knicks annihilated the 76ers in the second round, capping off a 4-0 sweep with a record-setting 144-114 game four win; the Knicks tied the NBA playoff record with 11 three pointers in the first quarter, tied the NBA playoff record with 25 three pointers in a game, set a franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and set a franchise record with their seventh consecutive playoff victory. This is the first time the Knicks swept a best of seven playoff series since 1999.

The narrative then shifted from the 76ers being a formidable opponent to the Knicks reaching the Eastern Conference Finals without facing a strong opponent. 

The reality--separated from any narratives and agendas--is that the Knicks' point differential of 19.4 points per game through their first 10 playoff games this year is the best point differential in a 10 game span in NBA playoff history. The Knicks are the fifth team to log multiple 140 games in the same postseason. Unless one makes the implausible argument that the Knicks faced the weakest opposition in the first two rounds in the history of the NBA playoffs, one should give the Knicks credit for starting the playoffs in dominant fashion.

Of course, the Knicks' job is not done: owner James Dolan made it clear prior to this season that he expects this team to win a championship, and that is why he fired successful coach Tom Thibodeau to bring in Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals, and who won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2009 and 2023. 

Commentators who don't understand basketball have often accused Mike Brown of being a subpar offensive coach and a coach who is not good at making adjustments. When Mike Brown led the Sacramento Kings' high-powered offense, his critics did not admit that they had been wrong about him; instead, they spoke about his alleged "evolution" as a coach. Don't be surprised if Brian Windhorst uncorks another article about Brown's supposed "evolution," because it is unlikely that Windhorst and his narrative-spewing cohorts will admit that they have ever been wrong. 

Brown is an excellent coach who adapts his methods and game plans to the personnel on his roster; he did that in Cleveland, L.A., and Sacramento, and now he is doing it in New York. That is not to say that he has learned nothing during his long coaching career. Anyone who is good at his craft understands the importance of being a lifelong learner--but there is a difference between an accomplished person learning versus a person being deficient and then learning to be competent, and Brown's critics erred by portraying his as deficient. During Brown's first stint in Cleveland, the Cavaliers ranked 15th in scoring and 16th in field goal percentage in the 2005-06 season (his first year as an NBA head coach), and they improved to ninth and third respectively by the 2009-10 season (after which the Cavaliers fired him).

In my recap of game two of the 2021 NBA Finals, I discussed at length ESPN's fascination with mythical adjustments:

Many of ESPN's talking heads have been obsessed for years with "in game adjustments" but Jeff Van Gundy is one of the few ESPN commentators who downplays such talk, perhaps because he is the only current ESPN commentator who has actually coached in the NBA Finals. During the 2010 NBA Finals, Van Gundy explained that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." During last night's telecast, Van Gundy made similar points, and after the game he mentioned that NBA games are often decided by one or two key plays, or simply by shots made/missed, and that there are not adjustments that can change those things.

Bill Russell refuted the in game adjustment nonsense years ago, cautioning, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make" and explaining, "When I played, when we had to make adjustments we would adjust not to what we did wrong but we would try to get back to what we did right and do that. That is the only way you can take control of the game," to which I added, "The idea that a coach can come up with something completely new between games--let alone during a 15 minute halftime break--is absurd and that is why San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich gives snarky answers when media members ask him stupid questions about what kind of adjustments he is going to make."

Unfortunately, many NBA commentators do not understand what they are watching, and are incapable of coming up with anything other than declaring that a team lost because that team's coach did not make the right adjustments. Stephen A. Smith repeats this tired refrain after almost every game, not realizing that his nickname is "Screamin' A", not "Strategy A" (though "Strategy F" would be an accurate assessment of what passes for analysis by him).

Perhaps when someone is paid millions of dollars per year to pose as an expert about something for which he does not have anything approaching expert level understanding there is pressure--self-imposed and/or from the bosses who sign those checks--to make bold statements and assertions.

It will be interesting to watch the narratives shift from game to game during this series. 

In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I ranked the Knicks as the Eastern Conference's best team, but in my 2025-26 Playoff Predictions I picked the Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference Finals; I was impressed by Boston's late season performance after Jayson Tatum's return, and I was concerned about the Knicks' inconsistency. The 76ers punished the Celtics for relying too much on three point shooting instead of attacking the immobile Joel Embiid, while the Knicks found their groove in the playoffs, as documented above.

New York will defeat Cleveland in six games.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby

posted by David Friedman @ 12:11 PM

0 comments

Donovan Mitchell Dominates as Cavaliers Rout Pistons to Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 26 points, dished for a game-high eight assists, grabbed six rebounds, and did not commit a turnover while leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a 125-94 rout of the Detroit Pistons in Detroit in game seven of the second round. Three other Cavaliers scored at least 20 points each: Jarrett Allen had 23 points and seven rebounds after posting 22 points and 19 rebounds in Cleveland's game seven win versus Toronto in the first round, Sam Merrill added 23 points off of the bench while shooting 5-8 from three point range, and Evan Mobley contributed 21 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. 

The Cavaliers shot 43-85 from the field (.506) while holding the Pistons to 30-85 field goal shooting (.353), and the Cavaliers dominated the Pistons in points in the paint (58-34) and rebounding (50-41). The Cavaliers will travel to New York for the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, with game one tipping off on Tuesday night.  

The Pistons led 3-2 at the 11:14 mark of the first quarter, and then it was all downhill for the home team after that moment. The Cavaliers outscored the Pistons 31-22 in the first quarter, capped off by Mitchell banking in a buzzer beating 38 foot three pointer. The Cavaliers extended the lead to 20 points in the second quarter, enjoyed a 64-47 halftime advantage, and led by double figures the rest of the way, pushing the margin as high as 35 points in the second half. Allen and Merrill paced the Cavaliers with 15 first half points each before Mitchell put the game out of reach by exploding for 15 third quarter points.

After winning just 14 games in 2023-24, the Pistons climbed to 44 wins last season, and then had an East-leading 60 wins this season, establishing themselves as an elite defensive team that relied heavily on Cade Cunningham to score (23.9 ppg in the regular season, 28.1 ppg during the playoffs) and to create scoring opportunities for his teammates (9.9 apg in the regular season, 7.5 apg during the playoffs). In game seven, the Pistons' vaunted defense collapsed under the pressure of Mitchell's drives, Merrill's three point shooting, and dives to the hoop by Allen and Mobley. Cunningham authored the lowest scoring game of his brief playoff career (13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting), tying Duncan Robinson for second on the team behind Daniss Jenkins' 17 points. Cunningham was leading the playoffs in scoring (29.3 ppg) before disappearing in game seven (last night's performance dropped him to second place behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but he also committed a league-worst 79  turnovers in 14 playoff games (5.6 tpg). For the Pistons to make deeper playoff runs, Cunningham must be more efficient offensively but he also needs more help. Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection this season, but he was a non-factor during most of this series, and he mustered just seven points along with nine rebounds in game seven after averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg during the regular season. Duren averaged 10.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg in the playoffs.

You may have noticed a very prominent name that is missing so far in this game recap--and that name is missing because he was missing in action during game seven: James Harden lived up to his deserved reputation for disappearing when his team faces elimination, scoring just nine points on 2-10 field goal shooting. After the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for James Harden, I predicted, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" The Cavaliers have not been eliminated from the 2026 playoffs, but they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals despite Harden, not because of him, and in this game seven James Harden disappeared and James Harden scored just three second half points on 1-6 field goal shooting. If Harden had not been carried by Mitchell, Allen, Mobley, and Merrill then this would have been yet another winnable elimination game that Harden's team lost because Harden's performance fell well short of reasonable expectations. Channeling the late Denny Green, Harden is who I thought he was, but the Pistons let him (and the Cavaliers) off the hook. The best thing that can be said about Harden's game seven performance is that he only had one turnover, but the main reason for that is that the Cavaliers wisely took the ball out of his hands and put the ball into Mitchell's more capable hands. 

It is surprising that neither the Amazon Prime crew nor ESPN's SportsCenter anchors even mentioned in passing that Harden--selected as a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team and acquired by the Cavaliers because he was expected to help the team advance past the second round en route to winning the NBA title--played so poorly in the Cavaliers' most important game of the season thus far. Would Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook have escaped condemnation for a 2-10 game seven shooting performance if their teams had won despite them and not because of them? The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, and speaks volumes about the narratives that dominate media-driven conversations not just about sports but about many topics.

After Harden fled Oklahoma City in 2012 because he did not want to be the Thunder's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, I declared, "Harden is a very good player but all of his weaknesses will be exposed in Houston if the Rockets expect him to be a franchise player. Harden is not an All-NBA First or Second Team caliber player. He is not someone who can draw double teams over the course of an 82 game season and then carry a team deep into the playoffs as the number one option. He is not Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James." Although Harden subsequently accumulated a bunch of regular season honors--including multiple All-NBA selections and even one regular season MVP--my assessment of his inability to lead a team to a championship as the number one option proved to be right on target, and his performances during the 2026 playoffs emphasize that point: the Cavaliers survived game seven versus the Toronto Raptors in the first round even though Harden managed just 18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and then they routed the Pistons in this game seven despite Harden not making a meaningful contribution. You might think, "Who cares as long as the team is winning?"--but the potential problem for the Cavaliers if they don't win two more playoff series this year is that they gave up young All-Star Darius Garland to overpay old All-Star Harden, so if this all-in move does not result in winning a title then the Cavaliers lack the financial flexibility needed to improve the roster. The Cavaliers had the league's highest payroll in 2025-26, topping the Knicks by nearly $6 million. 

Harden's resume in elimination games since leaving Oklahoma City includes a 5-13 team record, 21.4 ppg on .385 field goal shooting, and 4.67 tpg. Two of those five wins are with this year's Cavaliers, and Harden's numbers in those two wins are 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) with three turnovers. Harden has become less of a turnover machine in elimination games since 2022, but that can be attributed to him not handling the ball as much in those games.

Don't fall for the hype that Harden used to be a great playoff performer but now his numbers are going down because he is getting older. Harden averaged 29.2 ppg and a league-leading/career-high 11.2 apg in the 2016-17 regular season, but he had just 10 points on 2-11 field goal shooting with six turnovers as his Houston Rockets lost to the San Antonio Spurs 114-75 in game six of the second round. Recently, Sirius XM NBA Radio host Amin Elhassan--who loves to take potshots at all-time greats Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook--defended Harden's playoff career by asserting that Harden is never given credit for having notched 11 40-point games in the postseason. That comment misses the larger point: no one is suggesting that Harden is incapable of playing well in the playoffs or that he has never played well in some playoff games; the problem--irrefutably shown by the numbers cited above--is that when Harden's team needs him most he often disappears and his team loses the vast majority of those games. The fact that two of Harden's five career elimination game wins happened this season with Harden in a secondary (or lower) role behind Mitchell just reinforces the main point that I have been hammering home about Harden for 14 years: Harden is a talented player whose game and mentality are not well-suited for being the number one option on a championship contending team.

Despite Harden disappearing in game seven, the Cavaliers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018, which was LeBron James' last season with the team. This is a significant accomplishment for Mitchell--who has made the playoffs in each of his nine NBA seasons but had never advanced past the second round until now--and for the big man tandem of Mobley (2025 All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year) and Allen (2022 All-Star) as the franchise tries to move out from James' shadow.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

0 comments

Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

2 comments

The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug

The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.

The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called  "Tanking to the Top," but the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven fact: tanking does not work. 

The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.

It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM

2 comments