20 Second Timeout

2026-27 Western Conference Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder followed up their historic 68-14 regular season and 2025 championship run by starting the 2025-26 season with a 24-1 record to match the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best 25 game start in NBA history. Even though injuries limited Jalen Williams to just 33 regular season games, the Thunder still posted the league's best record (64-18) and looked poised to become the first team to win a second consecutive NBA title since the 2018 Warriors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.3 rpg) won his second consecutive regular season MVP and made the All-NBA First Team for the fourth straight year. The Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns and L.A. Lakers in the first two rounds before falling to the San Antonio Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference Finals. By game seven, the Thunder were without the services of not only Williams but also Ajay Mitchell, Williams' backup who averaged 22.3 ppg versus the Lakers in the second round.

It takes nothing away from the Spurs' accomplishment to note that the Thunder were not at full strength in the Western Conference Finals--and it should also be mentioned that the Spurs went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. The Spurs finished with the NBA's second best regular season record (62-20), reached the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and advanced to the NBA Finals for the first time since they won the 2014 NBA title. Victor Wembanyama led the way for the Spurs, posting team-highs in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg) and blocked shots (league-best 3.1 bpg). He had similarly outstanding numbers during the playoffs: 23.8 ppg, 10.9 rpg, league-best 3.5 bpg. Wembanyama won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the first time while also making the All-NBA First Team for the first time and finishing third in regular season MVP voting. He has a young, talented supporting cast that includes Stephon Castle (16.7 ppg, team-high 7.4 apg), De'Aaron Fox (18.6 ppg, 6.2 apg), 2026 Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson (13.2 ppg), and Dylan Harper (11.8 ppg). 

The Denver Nuggets have not advanced past the second round since winning the 2023 NBA title. That championship team led the league in field goal percentage, ranked eighth in points allowed, and finished 12th in scoring; last season's Nuggets ranked first in scoring and second in field goal percentage but just 21st in points allowed. With Nikola Jokic running the show from the high post or the low post, the Nuggets consistently have an elite offense, but their poor defense and their lack of depth have prevented them from making deep playoff runs the past three seasons. This offseason, the Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan (18.4 ppg in 77 games with the Sacramento Kings last season) and Marvin Bagley III (10.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg in 60 games for Dallas and Washington last season), but lost Peyton Watson (14.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .411 3FG%), Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5 ppg, .407 3FG%), Jonas Valanciunas (8.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg), and Bruce Brown (7.9 ppg, .385 3FG%).

Fred VanVleet missed the entire 2025-26 season with a torn right ACL, but his healthy return this season should provide a significant boost for a Houston team that missed his playmaking and leadership; last season, the Rockets ranked just 21st in the league in assists and 24th in turnovers. Kevin Durant is 38 years old but does not seem to have lost a step, at least on offense: last season, he averaged 26.0 ppg with .520/.413/.874 shooting splits, numbers that are in line with his career averages (27.1 ppg, .503/.392/.882). It is easy to forget that the Rockets went most of the regular season and the entire playoffs without Steven Adams, who is a force in the paint and on the boards; he averaged 5.8 ppg on .504 field goal shooting and 8.6 rpg in 32 games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves made significant changes to their rotation, parting ways with Julius Randle and Naz Reid while obtaining LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga. The Timberwolves have been trending downward since reaching the 2024 Western Conference Finals. The 2023-24 Timberwolves had a huge frontcourt with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns starting and Naz Reid winning the Sixth Man of the Year award as the first big man off of the bench. That squad posted the second best regular season record (56-26) in franchise history before eliminating the defending champion Denver Nuggets 4-3 in the second round. After trading Towns for Julius Randle, the Timberwolves slipped to 49-33 in 2024-25 but made it back to the Western Conference Finals after routing the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Last season, the Timberwolves went 49-33 again but lost in the second round. Adding Ball is supposed to provide playmaking and take pressure off of Anthony Edwards, but the Timberwolves were better off when they had a bigger, more physical team; the 2023-24 Timberwolves led the league in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed, and there is no chance that this team as currently constructed will come close to the top ranking in either of those important categories. 

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs massively exceeded expectations, vaulting from missing the playoffs with a 34-48 record to reaching the NBA Finals after posting a 62-20 record. The Spurs had not won 60 games since 2016-17 and had not made the playoffs since 2019. The Spurs are just the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals after missing the playoffs for at least the six previous seasons, joining the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (missed the playoffs for six straight seasons), the 2020 L.A. Lakers (six), and the 2021 Phoenix Suns (10).

The Spurs improved from 17th in the league in field goal percentage to sixth while jumping from 19th in rebounding to second, leaping from 23rd in points allowed to eighth, and soaring from 24th in defensive field goal percentage to fourth. Victor Wembanyama played a major role in those across the board improvements because he had a significant impact in the paint at both ends of the court: he played in 64 games after playing in just 46 games in 2024-25, he shot a career-high .512 from the field after shooting .476 in 2024-25, he slashed his 3FGA/game from 8.8 to 5.5, and he led the league in blocked shots for the third time in his three year career. 

Wembanyama is the lead singer, but he is not a one man band: De'Aaron Fox earned his second All-Star selection, while Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, and Julian Champagnie each scored in double figures. During the playoffs, Harper assumed a larger role, while Fox regressed after suffering a right high ankle sprain. It will be interesting to see how coach Mitch Johnson manages the minutes and the starting slots for his backcourt rotation.

Free agent signee Tobias Harris averaged 13.3 ppg and 5.1 rpg for the Pistons in the regular season last year before boosting those numbers to 18.1 ppg and 7.2 rpg during the playoffs. He injured his left calf during the preseason and is not expected to be available for the start of the regular season, but assuming that he makes a fully healthy return to action he will strengthen the Spurs' frontcourt rotation 

The Spurs have the necessary personnel to win an NBA title, but reaching the NBA Finals in 2026 does not guarantee reaching the NBA Finals--let alone winning a championship--in 2027 or beyond. It remains to be seen if 2026 was the start of a dynastic run, or merely a young team peaking early. 

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for four straight seasons, a feat matched only by Pantheon members Michael Jordan (1987-93), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). He is also a good defensive player, though perhaps not quite as active and aggressive at that end of the court now as he was when he ranked in the top five in the league in steals for three straight seasons (2023-25).

The Thunder might have won a repeat NBA title if they had been blessed with better health. Jalen Williams--who earned his first All-NBA, All-Star, and All-Defensive selections during the Thunder's 2025 championship campaign--played in just 33 games last season and only played in five of the Thunder's 15 playoff games. Ajay Mitchell filled in admirably before getting injured in the Western Conference Finals. 

Depth was a strength for the Thunder during the 2024-25 campaign, but no team is going to win a championship replacing an All-NBA caliber player with a third stringer. This season, the Thunder's depth will be tested because the team lost several players due to the dreaded second apron, trading away Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins to slash payroll. The Thunder still have a strong eight to nine player rotation, but they are not quite as deep as they were and thus they will be less able to withstand an injury to a key player like Jalen Williams.

It is easy to forget how dominant the Thunder were for large stretches of last season even with Williams out of the lineup or playing at less than 100%. It would not be surprising at all if the Thunder win the 2027 NBA title. 

3) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have won at least 50 games in each of the past four seasons, and that trend figures to continue as long as Nikola Jokic remains in peak form. Jokic won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023, 2025, and 2026. As I noted in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions, Jokic is a statistical marvel:

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg...Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win. 

Last season, Jokic became the first player in pro basketball history to lead the league in rpg and apg in the same season; the only other player who led the league in both categories in the same season is Wilt Chamberlain, who led the NBA in rebounds and assists in 1967-68 when league leaders were determined by totals, not averages. Jokic ranks second in pro basketball history with 198 career triple doubles, trailing only Russell Westbrook (209). Oscar Robertson was the first player who averaged a triple double for an entire season (1961-62), and he also averaged an aggregate triple double during his first five NBA seasons. Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double in four seasons (2017-19, 2021) while averaging an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21. Jokic has averaged a triple double in each of the past two seasons.

Jamal Murray has been an excellent second option for the Nuggets during most of Jokic's career, with the only problem being Murray's injury issues. Murray missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn left ACL, and he has played 67 games or less in five of his eight other seasons. Last season, Murray played in 75 games--his highest total since he played in 75 games in 2018-19--and he posted career-high numbers in scoring (25.4 ppg), assists (7.1 apg), and rebounding (4.4 rpg) while earning his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) and his first All-Star selection. 

Third option Aaron Gordon has also battled injuries, playing in just 36 games last season and 51 games in 2024-25. When healthy, Gordon is a double figure scorer who gets most of his points near the hoop but can step out to make three pointers. He is a solid rebounder and defensive player whose physicality eases the burden on Jokic.

The ceiling for Denver is to win a championship, but the Nuggets do not seem deep enough or stout enough defensively to do that unless everything breaks right. The most realistic outcome is a top three regular season finish and a hard-fought second round loss to San Antonio or Oklahoma City.

4) Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant continues to perform at an All-NBA level, and under coach Ime Udoka the Rockets emerged as the NBA's best rebounding team while also ranking fourth in points allowed and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. After the L.A. Lakers defeated the Rockets in the first round, much was made of the Lakers overcoming injuries, but during that series the Rockets were not only without the services of Durant for five of the six games but they were also missing starting point guard Fred VanVleet and key big man Steven Adams.

The healthy return of VanVleet should help the Rockets take care of the ball better, particularly in the late game situations that proved troublesome last season. The Rockets will also benefit from getting a full season out of Adams, who is said to be fully recovered from the serious ankle injury he suffered in January 2026.

Last season, Alperun Sengun averaged 20.4 ppg, a team-high 8.9 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg as he earned his second consecutive All-Star selection. Amen Thompson led the Rockets in minutes (37.4 mpg) while ranking second in rebounding (7.8 rpg), second in assists (5.3 apg), and third in scoring (18.3 ppg). He is an elite, multi-position defender.

The Rockets are not quite as deep as the Spurs or Thunder, nor do they have an otherworldly player in his prime like the Nuggets, but if they are fully healthy they will be a tough out in a seven game series. 

5) Minnesota Timberwolves: After setting a career-high with 10.3 3FGA/game in 2024-25, Anthony Edwards dialed back his long range bombing to 8.4 3FGA/game in 2025-26 and he scored a career-high 28.8 ppg (third in the league) with .489/.399/.796 shooting splits. He set career highs in FG% and 3FG%, and even though his FT% dropped from his career-high .837 in 2024-25 it was just a tick below his career average. Edwards is already a six year veteran, but he is just 25 years old and he is still improving. The Timberwolves hope that newly acquired point guard LaMelo Ball will create easier shot opportunities for everyone, including his backcourt mate Edwards.

The addition of Ball is the latest move signaling that the Timberwolves have shifted from relying on size, physicality, and defense to depending on being able to outrun and outgun their opponents. Ball and Edwards will push the ball and look for easy scoring opportunities in transition, but--as Pat Riley noted decades ago when he coached the "Showtime" Lakers--"No rebounds, no rings": if the Timberwolves do not get enough defensive stops and defensive rebounds then their running game will never get going.

Championship teams that are remembered by casual fans as flashy, high scoring ensembles also had a stern defensive backbone and enough size and tenacity to battle in the paint; the 1980's Lakers and the four-time champion Golden State Warriors of recent vintage are two prime examples of this, and unless/until the Timberwolves find the right balance they will not overtake the Western Conference's top teams.

6) L.A. Lakers: LeBron James' longest continuous run with one team--eight seasons--ended when he left the L.A. Lakers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers this summer. The James era in L.A. produced one championship (the 2020 "bubble title"), a Western Conference Finals appearances in 2023, one second round loss, three first round losses, and two seasons without playoff appearances; in short, James' Lakers failed to advance past the second round in six out of eight seasons.

James has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2020, when he was 35 years old. After the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in the middle of the 2024-25 season, James shifted to a secondary role for the first time in his career. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team last season after winning his second scoring title (33.5 ppg), and he finished in the top five in MVP voting (fourth) for the fourth time in his eight season career. Doncic missed the 2026 playoffs because of a severe left hamstring strain, and James led the Lakers to a 4-2 first round win over Houston before Oklahoma City swept the Lakers in the second round, with three of the four games being decided by at least 18 points.

During the offseason, the Lakers acquired Walker Kessler to bolster their paint presence while parting ways with Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes. The Lakers are the first team in NBA history to get rid of all five of the players who ranked in the top five on the team in total playoff minutes played in the previous campaign (Hachimura, James, Smart, Kennard, Ayton).

James' former podcast partner J.J. Redick has all of the answers during postgame press conferences, so it will be interesting to see how successful he is coaching this team without James around to cover up for his coaching gaffes. Any team with Doncic and a decent supporting cast should at least make the playoffs. The question is how far can the Lakers advance with Redick calling the shots and without James around--and the likely answer is a first round exit.

7) Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija steadily improved during his first three seasons in Washington, became a double figure scorer in his fourth season, and then blossomed in the past two years in Portland. After averaging a career-high 16.9 ppg in 2024-25, Avdija poured in a team-high 24.2 ppg last season while also averaging 6.9 rpg and 6.7 apg to narrowly miss joining the 25-5-5 Club. He earned his first All-Star selection, and drew praise for his aggressive forays to the hoop that enabled him to rank second in the league with 9.2 FTA/game.

Toumani Camara led the team in total minutes (2731) and games played (82). He is an outstanding defensive player who also chipped in 13.4 ppg and 5.1 rpg. Jrue Holiday averaged 16.3 ppg--his highest scoring season since 2022-23--but he only played in 53 games. Donovan Clingan averaged 12.1 ppg, a team-high 11.6 rpg, and a league-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds per game. 

It will be interesting to see how the players who led the Trail Blazers to their first playoff appearance since 2021 will be impacted by the addition of two small, ball-dominant guards to the mix: Damian Lillard and Ja Morant are both high-usage players who are minus defenders.

The Trail Blazers will welcome back Lillard, the franchise's all-time leading scorer, after a three year absence. Portland signed Lillard last summer after he spent two seasons in Milwaukee, but he missed all of last season with a ruptured left Achilles that he suffered while playing for the Bucks during the first round of the 2025 playoffs. Portland traded Jeremi Grant and Kris Murray for Morant, a two-time All-Star who recently has not been able to stay healthy or keep out of trouble.  

The Trail Blazers are at their best when the ball is in Avdija's hands; every possession that begins or ends with Lillard or Morant takes the ball away from the team's most dangerous player. How good the Trail Blazers will be depends on the extent to which Lillard and Morant avoid hogging the ball to go one on one.

8) Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg struggled early in his rookie season while coach Jason Kidd played him at point guard, but after Kidd switched him back to his natural small forward position Flagg set several records, including most points by a teenager in a single game (51), first teenager to score at least 40 points in an NBA game, and first teenager to score at least 30 points in consecutive games. Flagg was also the first rookie to score at least 45 points in consecutive games since 1962. He averaged 21.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, and 4.5 apg in 70 games, leading the team in scoring while ranking second in assists. In his final six games, Flagg scored 29.2 ppg in just 30.0 mpg with shooting splits of .474/.429/.949. Unlike many high octane offensive players, Flagg is also a good defensive player. Great players often make a leap in their second year, and if Flagg does that then the Mavericks should be good enough to at least qualify for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.

The Mavericks had a busy offseason. They hired Masai Ujiri--the architect of Toronto's 2019 championship team--as team president, and then Ujiri hired Dusty May to replace Kidd as the coach. May led Michigan to the 2026 NCAA title, but the jump from coaching the collegiate game to coaching in the professional ranks is a huge one. Ujiri made several personnel moves, including adding veteran big man Santi Aldama, versatile forward Zaccharie Risacher (the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft), and Michigan rookie Morez Johnson Jr. while subtracting Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, and Marvin Bagley III.

Perhaps the most significant "addition" is Kyrie Irving, who missed the entire season with a left ACL tear. If the 34 year old Irving still has some bounce in his step then that will take pressure off of Flagg and create matchup problems for opposing defenses. Irving averaged 24.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 4.6 apg in 50 games with the Mavericks in 2024-25 before injuring his knee.

The Mavericks are not a championship contender, but with Irving and Flagg running the offense and Daniel Gafford anchoring the defense they can pose problems even to the elite teams.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Phoenix Suns went 45-37 last season and qualified for the playoffs despite sending Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a seven team deal. The Suns will make the Play-In Tournament to have a shot at earning a playoff berth, but I expect Dallas and Portland to be just a little better than the Suns by the end of the season.

The Golden State Warriors stood pat with an aging roster that posted a 37-45 record last season. They have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since overcoming a 2-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals. Stephen Curry averaged 26.6 ppg last season--his highest scoring average since he scored 29.4 ppg in the 2022-23 season--but he played in just 43 games and he has played in at least 70 games twice in the past nine seasons. Jimmy Butler (20.0 ppg) played 38 games before suffering a season-ending right ACL tear, and he is unlikely to return to action until at least January 2027.

Last season, the Utah Jazz went 4-23 down the stretch--including 1-11 in their final 12 games--to tank their way to the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Now that the NBA has changed rules to remove incentives for tanking, such a collapse is less likely. The Jazz will not be a playoff team, but with second overall pick Darryn Peterson joining Lauri Markkanen (26.7 ppg in 42 games last season), Keyonte George (23.6 ppg in 54 games), and second year player Ace Bailey (13.8 ppg in 72 games) the Jazz have a solid young group that should win 35-40 games next season.

The L.A. Clippers' prospects for the next several years are limited due to the five first round draft picks that the NBA took away as part of the penalty for the salary cap circumvention pertaining to the signing of Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers sent Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick, which represented a talent downgrade for the Clippers even before it was determined that Ingram has a partially torn right Achilles that will force him to miss the start of the season. Ty Lue is an excellent coach, but even he will not be able to drag this team to the playoffs. The Clippers lack size--they ranked 29th in the league in rebounding last season--and it will be very difficult to replace Leonard's scoring, playmaking, and defensive versatility.

After posting the third worst record (25-57) in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies traded Ja Morant to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. They also acquired Isaiah Stewart and Quentin Post to bolster their frontcourt, and they shipped Santi Aldama to the Dallas Mavericks in a multi-team deal that yielded A.J. Johnson plus three draft picks. The Grizzlies selected Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick, and they hope that he will be the cornerstone of their rebuilding project. The net result of those moves is that the Grizzlies have a bigger, tougher, and more defensive-minded team. They will not make the playoffs, but they are on the right track after advancing past the first round once since 2015 and missing the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. 

Since the New Orleans Pelicans drafted Zion Williamson seven years ago, he has played at least 70 games in a season once and he has yet to play in a playoff game (the Pelicans lost in the first round without him in 2022 and 2024). It is not going out on a limb to predict that Williamson will play less than 70 games this season and the Pelicans will miss the playoffs for the third season in a row.

The Sacramento Kings should be renamed the Paupers. Since the Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown on December 27, 2024, they have posted a 49-84 record; meanwhile, Brown landed in New York, where he led the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973. The Kings waived DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 ppg (second on the team) last season, and they did not re-sign Russell Westbrook, who led the team with 6.7 apg. Perhaps the Kings missed the memo that tanking no longer results in receiving a top draft pick (not that the Kings would know what to do with a top draft pick if they got one). 

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Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2025: 5/8
2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2026 Total: 129/168 (.768)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 PM

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2026-27 Eastern Conference Preview

Last season, the New York Knicks won their first NBA title since 1973. The Knicks enjoyed a dominant 16-3 playoff run that included a 13 game winning streak, which is the second longest playoff winning streak in NBA history--but to earn a repeat championship they will have to navigate an Eastern Conference landscape that has been reshaped by significant trades and free agent signings.

After posting a 56-26 record to finish second in the Eastern Conference in what was expected to be a gap year, the Boston Celtics traded 2024 NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first round draft picks, and two second round draft picks. This trade represented the culmination of the Celtics' efforts to manage their high payroll while still trying to remain a strong playoff team. It is surprising that these two historic rivals made a trade with each other, particularly right after the 76ers recovered from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Celtics in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. The Celtics should not be any worse in the regular season with a healthy Tatum plus George than they were last season with Brown but without Tatum for most of the season, but the unanswered question is if the Celtics can go farther in the playoffs than they did last season.

The Brown acquisition paved the way for the 76ers to sign free agent LeBron James to a two year veteran minimum deal. The 76ers have not won a championship since Moses Malone and Julius Erving led the 76ers to the 1983 NBA title, and the 76ers have not reached the NBA Finals since 2001. James has spent most of his career building or joining "super teams," and he has won at least one championship with each of his previous teams--Miami (2012, 2013), Cleveland (2016), L.A. Lakers (2020)--but Joel Embiid has spent more than a decade not staying healthy and not advancing past the second round. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James led the Cavaliers to four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. In the past four years, the Cavaliers lost in the first round, lost in the second round two years in a row, and then lost in the Eastern Conference Finals; on paper, the team seems to be on an upward trajectory, but relying heavily on James Harden will doom the Cavaliers to not advance past the Eastern Conference Finals--and to probably not even advancing that far again with him on the roster. Since he fled Oklahoma City in 2012, Harden's record in games when his team faced elimination is 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. When it matters most, Harden disappears, and that 14 year pattern is highly unlikely to change as his career winds down.

The Detroit Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has lifted the Pistons from a 14-68 record under Monty Williams in 2023-24 to 44-38 in 2024-25 and 60-22 last season. This offseason, the Pistons parted ways with two of the top six players (based on mpg) in their rotation (Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart) along with Caris LeVert while adding John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince. The Pistons are an elite defensive team, but they struggled to score during the playoffs, to the extent that they fell behind 3-1 in the first round before beating the Orlando Magic in seven games. The Pistons scored 105 points or less in each of the first four games of that series, and after surviving that scare they collapsed in game seven at home in the second round, losing 125-94 to the Cavaliers. It seems unlikely that the Pistons will win 60 games in the tough Eastern Conference, and it is not clear that their offseason moves made them a stronger postseason team. 

With Pat Riley at the helm, the Miami Heat have chased and acquired big stars for decades, from Alonzo Mourning to Tim Hardaway to Shaquille O'Neal to LeBron James to Chris Bosh to Jimmy Butler, resulting in three NBA titles (2006, 2012, 2013) plus four other NBA Finals appearances (2011, 2014, 2020, 2023). This offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time regular season MVP (2019-20) who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. The Heat now have a formidable frontcourt rotation featuring Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Bobby Portis (acquired from Milwaukee along with Antetokounmpo), and Andrew Wiggins. The Heat are relying on offseason acquisitions Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to provide reliable volume three point shooting.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks joined a short list of teams who won a championship after replacing a very successful coach. Mike Brown guided the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973 in his first season at the helm after the Knicks fired Tom Thibodeau, who had just led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13.  

The Knicks only improved by two regular season wins under Brown--from 51-to 53--but they made a huge leap in defensive field goal percentage, jumping from 25th to fifth, and that carried over into the postseason; during the 2025 playoffs, the Knicks ranked eighth out of 16 teams in defensive field goal percentage, but in the 2026 playoffs the Knicks ranked third in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks ranked first in field goal percentage in the 2026 playoffs after ranking fifth in field goal percentage in the 2025 playoffs. The Knicks' increased efficiency at both ends of the court translated into several blowout wins and several comebacks from significant deficits because the Knicks were able to both clamp down opposing offenses and go on hot shooting streaks.

Jalen Brunson has exceeded all reasonable expectations for what can be achieved by a 6-2 player who is not a high flyer and who is not exceptionally quick. What Brunson lacks in height, vertical leap, and explosiveness is more than compensated for with his savvy, footwork, clutch shotmaking, and toughness. During the regular season, he led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 ppg) and assists (6.8 apg) to earn his third straight selections as both an All-Star and as a member of the All-NBA Second Team. He did not receive a single regular season MVP vote after finishing 10th in 2024-25 and fifth in 2023-24. Brunson lifted his game in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 ppg and 6.1 apg overall, including 32.6 ppg and 4.6 apg in the NBA Finals to earn the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP.

During the regular season, Karl Anthony-Towns averaged 20.1 ppg and 11.9 rpg (ranking second in the league for the second year in a row). His playoff numbers (15.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.9 apg, playoff career-high .551 FG%) only hint at his tremendous impact during the Knicks' championship run. After the Knicks fell behind 2-1 versus the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, Towns morphed into an elite playmaker, posting at least six assists in seven straight games as the Knicks won three in a row versus the Hawks before sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0. Towns had triple doubles against the Hawks in game four (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and in game six (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Prior to that remarkable stretch, Towns' playoff career-high for assists had been five. Towns' playmaking put pressure on opposing defenses that were already stretched to the breaking point trying to contend with Brunson's herky jerky game and impeccable footwork in the paint. 

Other than losing valuable backup center Mitchell Robinson to the Boston Celtics, the Knicks kept their championship rotation intact; the chemistry that those players built during the playoff run will serve them well during any rough spots in the regular season and playoffs. 

2) Boston Celtics: Despite Jayson Tatum missing 66 games while recovering from a ruptured right Achilles and despite trading key rotation players Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to save money to avoid the dreaded second apron, the Celtics posted the Eastern Conference's second best record (56-26). After Tatum returned late in the season, the Celtics looked poised to make a deep playoff run, but the Celtics' postseason ending abruptly when they lost three straight games after taking a 3-1 first round lead versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Tatum averaged 23.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a team-high 6.8 apg in the first six games before missing game seven due to left knee stiffness. 

Instead of running it back with the Tatum-Brown duo leading the way, the Celtics shipped Brown to the 76ers for Paul George, a 36 year old swingman who played in just 37 games last season, with 25 of his missed games stemming from a suspension for violating the NBA's drug policy. He did not exactly set the world on fire when he played, averaging 17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg, falling to reach his career norms in all three categories. George is a nine-time All-Star, but he made the All-Star team just three times in the past seven seasons, with his last selection coming in 2024. The Celtics also signed free agent center Mitchell Robinson, a move that bolstered their frontcourt while weakening the Knicks' frontcourt. Robinson provides physicality and rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass.

Losing Brown for George and Robinson is a net minus, but it is important to remember that the Celtics also "gained" Tatum. The Celtics are well-run and well-coached, so unless Tatum gets hurt again they should maintain their perch near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. The main concern for the Celtics is that they rely too heavily on high volume three point shooting, a high variance strategy that does not tend to correlate with championship success; the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range in their game seven loss to the 76ers. Indiscriminate long range bombing only works when it is paired with elite defense and rebounding. When the Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, they ranked second in the league in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed during the regular season in addition to ranking first in three point field goals made; during the 2024 playoffs, they ranked third in points allowed, third in rebounding and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. 

3) Philadelphia 76ers: If you squint while looking into a crystal ball, it is possible to see a world in which the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA championship; in that world, Joel Embiid and LeBron James are both healthy enough to play in at least 60 regular season games plus a full slate of playoff games while not only scoring efficiently but also playing solid defense--and in that world, Jaylen Brown is one of the top three wings in the NBA, Tyrese Maxey is an All-NBA shooting guard, and the rotation players are willing to sacrifice offensively while playing strong defense.

However, in the real world, Joel Embiid has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his 12 season career (including missing two full seasons due to injuries), and he has played in 39 games or less in each of the past three seasons. He has played in at least 60 games in a season only four times. James is a remarkably durable player, but since playing in all 82 games in 2017-18 (his age 33 season) he has played at least 70 games in a season just twice in eight years while playing in 60 games or less five times. James has not received a vote in Defensive Player of the Year balloting since 2017, and he has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2014. Expecting Embiid and James to not only remain healthy but to play anything close to championship caliber defense is a major reach.

Maxey is the 76ers' best and most consistent player. He averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg last season with .462/.367/.892 shooting splits while also dishing for a career-high 6.6 apg. However, he ranks fourth on this squad in star power behind four-time regular season MVP/four-time NBA Finals MVP James, one-time regular season MVP Embiid, and one-time NBA Finals MVP Brown. It is almost certain that James will be the dominant ballhandler, meaning that he will decide when and how often everyone else gets to touch the ball. It will be interesting to see how this team navigates the potentially rough waters of creating offensive chemistry when the two biggest stars are likely to (1) miss a lot of games and (2) exert less than full effort defensively.

4) Cleveland Cavaliers: How meaningful is it that the Cavaliers reached the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals? As I noted in my 2020 assessment of Daryl Morey's legacy up to that point, the NBA's competitive balance means that over a long enough period of time most teams advance that far at least once:

How significant is it to reach the Conference Finals? Two teams advance that far each year in each conference, so if those appearances were evenly distributed over a 13 year period with 15 teams in each conference then each team would average 1.7 Conference Finals appearances. In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances.

On one hand, it is an accomplishment to reach the Conference Finals, which is the NBA's equivalent of the NCAA Final Four; on the other hand, the NBA is structured to promote parity, which is why so many teams reach the Conference Finals once only to rapidly fall off, with the 2019 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2021 Atlanta Hawks being two prime examples of teams that made fluky Conference Finals runs while being led by offense-first/defense-optional guards. The Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and better defensively than those two squads, but it takes a lot for a team to overcome the negatives that James Harden brings in terms of team chemistry, defense, and playoff choking.

The Cavaliers' two main offseason moves were signing contract extensions for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Extending Mitchell is a no-brainer--he is the team's best player and he is in his prime. Extending Harden is questionable long term but not surprising; the Cavaliers have hitched their wagon to Harden, and they are going to ride that wagon until it reaches the finish line or until the wheels fall off. In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series"--and that was before the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, who subsequently added yet another line to his horrific elimination game resume by scoring 12 points on 2-8 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Knicks routed the Cavaliers 130-93 to complete a 4-0 sweep in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals. I can't picture any team winning a championship while relying on Harden as a key player, but maybe the Cavaliers will unlock hidden playoff greatness in Harden that Oklahoma City, Houston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and the L.A. Clippers could not find.

The Cavaliers also acquired Peyton Watson in a five team deal and then signed the 3 and D wing to a four year, $88 million deal. Watson's tall task is to make up for the defensive deficiencies of the Cavaliers' guards and wings. What Watson cannot do is make up for the Cavaliers' inexplicable softness in the paint despite having two highly touted big men (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen). During the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 46.0 rpg to 36.8 rpg and the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers in the paint by 12.5 ppg. Teams that get pushed around don't win championships.

The Cavaliers will win at least 50 regular season games, and they will almost certainly win their first round playoff series, but anything after that is a question mark as long as Harden is running the point. Harden's career record in the first round is 11-6, and his record in subsequent rounds is 6-11. That 17-17 playoff series record overall includes a 5-3 mark when he was Oklahoma City's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, so Harden's playoff series record as the number one option (or at least the primary ballhandler) is 12-14, including 3-9 after the first round.

5) Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham has earned consecutive All-Star selections and consecutive All-NBA Team selections, including his first All-NBA First Team honor last season. He is an elite scorer and playmaker, and he rebounds well for a point guard. At just 25 years old, the five year veteran has likely not yet reached his peak. Cunningham's main weakness is that he can be sloppy with the ball; he has averaged 5.6 tpg in 20 career playoff games. The Pistons need to acquire or develop a competent secondary ballhandler to take some of the pressure off of Cunningham.

Jalen Duren had a breakout regular season, averaging a career-high 19.5 ppg to earn his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) but in the playoffs he went from breakout to broken down, averaging just 10.2 ppg. Duren and the Pistons spent most of the offseason in a standoff regarding the length and amount of his contract extension before he finally signed a five year extension for $200 million, which is significantly less than the max deal for which he was eligible.

It might seem odd to say this about a young team that just finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (60-22), but there are more questions than answers for the Pistons, and it does not seem likely that the Pistons will match last season's win total or advance past the second round of the playoffs.

6) Miami Heat: In a busy and productive offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Bobby Portis form one of the league's best big men trios, while Thompson and Hardaway Jr. provide much-needed perimeter shooting, and 2014 number one overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins is a consistent scorer who has averaged at least 13.4 ppg in each of his 12 NBA seasons.

The questions about the Heat revolve around the point guard position and overall depth. Antetokounmpo can be a playmaker in open court situations and even in some half court sets--as can Adebayo--but the Heat lack a veteran, dependable point guard who can run the offense.

Erik Spoelstra may be the NBA's best coach. He will make sure that this team plays good defense and plays offense as efficiently as possible, but until the Heat upgrade their point guard rotation and bolster their depth they will not be a championship contender. 

7) Toronto Raptors: Last season, the Raptors finished 46-36 while ranking seventh in field goal percentage and 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They pushed eventual Eastern Conference Finalist Cleveland to seven games in the first round. 

Scottie Barnes (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 5.9 apg) earned his second All-Star selection in the past three seasons while finishing fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making the All-Defensive Second Team for the first time. Barnes was the best all-around player on a young team that could use some veteran leadership.

Enter Kawhi Leonard: this offseason, the Raptors shipped the oft-injured Brandon Ingram (21.5 ppg) and Gradey Dick to the L.A. Clippers for the oft-injured Leonard, who earned the second of his two NBA Finals MVPs after leading the Raptors to the 2019 NBA title, the first and only championship in franchise history. Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 ppg in 64 games for the Clippers last season, and he emerged largely unscathed from the Clippers' salary cap circumvention debacle.

If Leonard stays healthy--a major "if" for a player who has participated in at least 65 regular season games just twice in the past nine seasons--then he and Barnes could be a formidable duo, but the more realistic scenario is that Leonard misses a lot of games and the Raptors end up with around the same number of wins that they had last season. Even if Leonard is healthy, the Raptors' lack of size will hurt them versus the better Eastern Conference teams that have All-Star big men--and it should be noted that Leonard has not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2019 (the Clippers reached the 2021 Western Conference Finals after Leonard suffered a season-ending injury in the second round).

8) Orlando Magic: The Magic fired coach Jamahl Mosley after losing in the first round for the third straight year. They replaced him with Sean Sweeney, who will make his NBA head coaching debut after serving as an NBA assistant coach for 13 seasons with five different teams. 

Under Mosley, the Magic played at a slow pace but were mediocre at best at both ends of the court; last season, the Magic ranked 13th in the league in points allowed, 15th in points scored, 19th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in field goal percentage. 

Paolo Banchero is the team's best player, but he has not progressed much since winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award and earning his lone All-Star selection in 2024. Last season, he averaged 22.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.2 apg, good numbers that are in line with his career averages (22.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apg). He raises his game in the playoffs (27.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.9 apg in 19 career playoff games) but that has not been enough to win even one playoff series. Banchero is not an efficient scorer or an above average defensive player. 

When Banchero, Franz Wagner (20.6 ppg in 34 games last season), and Desmond Bane (20.1 ppg in a team-high 82 games last season) are healthy the Magic have a solid "big three" surrounded by a decent rotation that includes Jalen Suggs (13.8 ppg, team-high 5.5 apg last season), Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. A couple years ago, the Magic were viewed as a team on the rise, but after losing in the first round for three straight years while not making any significant roster upgrades the more realistic perspective is that this is a lower tier playoff team that is not a serious threat to the Eastern Conference's top teams.  

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Indiana Pacers are a popular pick to be a sleeper team with the return of Tyrese Haliburton from a ruptured right Achilles, but the Pacers went 19-63 last season so they would need to add at least 20-25 wins to that total just to reach the Play-In Tournament. The Pacers are counting heavily on Ivica Zubac to replace the impact provided by Myles Turner during the team's 2025 playoff run to the NBA Finals. Even assuming that Haliburton will be as good as he was before the injury--which is far from certain for a perimeter player who relies on quickness and agility--it will be a tall task for the Pacers to jump from being the second worst team in the Eastern Conference to being a top eight team, let alone being a championship contender.

Last season, the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, and they took a 2-1 first round lead versus the Knicks before losing three games in a row by double digit margins. The Knicks' 140-89 game six win indicated that the gap between an NBA championship team and the Hawks is quite large. In the offseason, the Hawks bolstered their backcourt by acquiring Lu Dort, Ryan Nembhard, and Aaron Wiggins, but that will not be enough to keep the Hawks in the top eight in a strong Eastern Conference.  

Jerry Krause infamously said "Organizations win championships," but since Krause broke up the "Last Dance" Bulls team after the 1998 championship season the Bulls have won just five playoff series in 27 seasons and they have not advanced past the first round since 2015; it takes four series wins to capture an NBA title, so the Bulls' (dis)organization has not accomplished much since chasing away Michael Jordan and company. I've lost count of how many five year plans the Bulls have started during that time, but they have once again restructured their front office and hired a new coach. As The Who song goes, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage; they will have to significantly improve those rankings to make the playoffs.

The Milwaukee Bucks traded away franchise player Giannis Antetokounpo for several solid players, and that is just not a recipe for making the playoffs. Not surprisingly, no NBA team has performed better in the season after trading away a former regular season MVP. The Bucks missed the playoffs last season with Antetokounmpo, and they will miss the playoffs this season without him.

The Charlotte Hornets narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but instead of standing pat they did a significant roster makeover, capped off by trading dynamic point guard LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Naz Reid and draft picks. Perhaps the Hornets' management felt that the roster as constructed had peaked and thus change was necessary, but at least in the short run the Hornets look to be a worse team now than they were at the end of last season.

Washington Wizards' fans hope that Anthony Davis and Trae Young will lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs, but since 2020 Davis has missed the playoffs three times while advancing past the second round just once, while Trae Young has reached the playoffs three times in his eight season career. It would be a huge disappointment if the Wizards are not better than they were last season when they were losing on purpose, but it is unlikely that this team will make the playoffs.

Last season, the Brooklyn Nets ranked 30th (last) in the league in field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and rebounding. Their biggest offseason move was acquiring Julius Randle from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a multi-team deal. Randle has a career scoring average of 19.1 ppg on .472 field goal shooting, so he may help the Nets escape the field goal percentage basement, but he is not going to significantly impact the team's defense or rebounding. The Nets had the third worst record in the Eastern Conference last season, narrowly edging out two teams (Indiana and Washington) that were not trying very hard to win. The NBA changed rules to remove the incentives for tanking, so with every team presumably trying to win the Nets could be the worst team in the Eastern Conference next season.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2025: 7/8
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 130/168 (.774)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM

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Zach Harper Figures Out that a Review of the Past 30 NBA Drafts Shows That Tanking Does not Work

In a recent article, Zach Harper discussed a "stunning discovery" that he just made. I have removed the distracting bold font that Harper used for some of the sentences in the following passages, but because I am quoting him directly I am not responsible for his awkward writing style and inconsistent capitalization regarding the NBA Finals: "Something interesting I noticed recently was how little getting a top-5 pick in the NBA Draft directly helps you get to the NBA Finals, let alone win the whole thing." Harper looked at the NBA Drafts from 1996-2025 and observed that--contrary to the popular narrative that tanking helps teams win later--"only 21 of the top-5 picks made it to the finals with the teams that drafted or traded for them on draft night. That's a 14 percent success rate. Also, those numbers are a bit inflated because two of the draftees were James Wiseman (Warriors) and Darko Milicic (Pistons), who contributed almost nothing to their teams." Harper asks, "So what does all of this mean?" before concluding, "I actually don't know if I have a theory or a conclusion to any of this. I would have assumed the success rate for a top-five pick getting his team to the finals was higher than it is. But I looked it up, so there you go. Share with your friends and make outlandish statements with said information. That's what we're here for."

Considering Harper's nonsensical comments about Russell Westbrook and his giggling while his Sirius XM NBA co-host Amin Elhassan mocked Bob Cousy plus Harper's disjointed, rambling account of Robert Parish's career in The Basketball 100, it is not surprising that (1) Harper thinks that his research about the NBA Draft is original or surprising and (2) Harper cannot figure out what to make of his "stunning discovery."

As I noted 12 years ago, Derek Thompson wrote an article in the April 2014 issue of The Atlantic explaining that tanking does not work. Here is Thompson's conclusion that Harper apparently has never seen and could not figure out on his own:

Nearly 30 years of data tell a crystal-clear story: a truly awful team has never once metamorphosed into a championship squad through the draft. The last team to draft No. 1 and then win a championship (at any point thereafter) was the San Antonio Spurs, which lucked into the pick (Tim Duncan) back in 1997 when the team’s star center, David Robinson, missed all but six games the previous season because of injuries. The teams with the top three picks in any given draft are almost twice as likely to never make the playoffs within four years—the term of an NBA rookie contract, before the player reaches free agency—as they are to make it past the second round.

Why are teams and their fans drawn to a strategy that reliably leads to even deeper failure? The gospel of tanking is born from three big assumptions: that mediocrity is a trap; that scouting is a science; and that bad organizations are one savior away from being great. All three assumptions are common, not only to sports, but also to business and to life. And all three assumptions are typically wrong.

"Stat gurus" claim to only care about objective data, so it is interesting that so many "stat gurus" insist that tanking works despite decades of data proving otherwise. I spent years blasting Sam Hinkie's Philadelphia 76ers for their blatant tanking, and I declared "Tanking to the Top" is Not What the 76ers Have Done. I implored NBA Commissioner Adam Silver to penalize tanking teams because even if tanking worked it is damaging to the game and it rips off the paying customers. In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I explained that even though the Oklahoma City Thunder tanked for a couple seasons (which is not a good thing for them or the league), they built their championship roster without tanking:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

It is widely assumed and reported that the San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain Victor Wembanyama, but--as I noted in my 2026 Western Conference Finals preview--Gregg Popovich publicly rejected the notion that tanking is something that the Spurs do or would consider doing. It must be said that it looked like the Spurs were tanking, but it should be noted that even after they drafted Wembanyama and thus presumably had no incentive to tank they went 22-60, the same record that they posted in the season before drafting Wembanyama.

Perhaps Harper should not be blamed too much for taking so long to notice the data showing that tanking does not lead to championship success; after all, as many as 10 NBA teams tanked last season, so even people who are presumably smarter than Harper did not understand that tanking does not work. 

Labels: Adam Silver, Derek Thompson, Gregg Popovich, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, San Antonio Spurs, tanking, The Atlantic, Victor Wembanyama, Zach Harper

posted by David Friedman @ 3:32 PM

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Bob Pettit: One of the Greatest Basketball Players of All-Time

Bob Pettit--the NBA's first regular season MVP (1956) and the first pro basketball player to score 20,000 career points--has passed away at the age of 93. Pettit, George Mikan, Bob Cousy, and Bill Russell are the only players selected to all four of the NBA's all-time Anniversary Teams (25th in 1971, 35th in 1981, 50th in 1996, and 75th in 2021). Pettit, Paul Arizin, Jerry West, Julius Erving, and Yao Ming are the only players who earned an All-Star selection in every year of their professional careers. Erving tops that list with 16 All-Star selections, followed by West (14) and Pettit (11).

After an outstanding collegiate career at LSU during which he led the SEC in scoring in all three of his varsity seasons (25.5 ppg as a sophomore, 24.9 ppg as a junior, 31.4 ppg as a senior), Pettit earned the 1955 NBA Rookie of the Year award by averaging 20.4 ppg, 13.8 rpg, and 3.2 apg for the Milwaukee Hawks, a franchise that moved to St. Louis the following season. At that time (and until the 1969-70 season), NBA leaders were determined by totals, not averages; as a rookie, Pettit ranked fourth in scoring (1466 points) and third in rebounds (994), setting a high standard that he maintained throughout his career.

Pettit's first 10 NBA seasons stack up well with the first 10 seasons of any other player in pro basketball history: during that decade, he made the All-NBA First Team 10 straight times, won two regular season MVPs (1956, 1959) while finishing no lower than sixth in MVP voting nine times (the award did not exist during his rookie season), won two scoring titles (1956, 1959), won one rebounding title (1956), and led the St. Louis Hawks to one NBA championship (1958) in four NBA Finals appearances (1957-58, 1960-61). 

In Pettit's first 10 NBA seasons, he ranked no lower than fourth in scoring and no lower than fifth in rebounding--and in his 11th, final season he averaged 22.5 ppg and 12.4 rpg but did not make the leaderboard because he played in 50 out of 80 games after missing just 12 games in his first 10 seasons; the NBA season lasted 72 games in Pettit's first five seasons, 75 games in 1959-60, 79 games in 1960-61, and 80 games in his final four seasons. Pettit, Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry Lucas, and Nate Thurmond are the only players to average at least 20 ppg and at least 20 rpg in the same season. Pettit averaged 26.4 ppg (10th in pro basketball history) and 16.2 rpg (third in pro basketball history) in 792 career regular season games while averaging at least 20.4 ppg and at least 12.4 rpg in each of his 11 seasons. He averaged 25.5 ppg (22nd in pro basketball history) and 14.8 rpg (fourth in pro basketball history) in 88 career playoff games.

Pettit is one of just eight players who held first place on the NBA's career scoring list: the others are Joe Fulks, George Mikan, Ed Macauley, Dolph Schayes, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and LeBron James. Pettit is one of six players who won at least one NBA scoring title and at least one NBA rebounding title: the other five are Neil Johnston, Wilt Chamberlain, Elvin Hayes, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and David Robinson. 

Pettit won a record four NBA All-Star Game MVPs (1956, 1958, 1959, 1962) at a time when NBA players took the All-Star Game seriously. Kobe Bryant (2002, 2007, 2009, 2011) is the only other player who won four NBA All-Star Game MVPs. 

Pettit had a full offensive skill set that enabled him to shoot, drive, score inside, and draw fouls. He ranks second in pro basketball history with 10.25 free throw attempts per game during his regular season career, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain (11.35)--but Chamberlain was often fouled intentionally because of his low free throw percentage, while Pettit was a solid free throw shooter (.761 career FT%, including a career-high .820 in his final season to rank seventh in the league that year).

Bill Russell's Boston Celtics dominated the NBA by winning 11 championships during Russell's 13 seasons, but one of Russell's two playoff series losses came at the hands of Pettit's Hawks. Pettit scored 50 points in game six of the 1958 NBA Finals as the Hawks edged the Celtics, 110-109. Pettit shot 19-34 (.559) from the field while collecting a game-high 19 rebounds. Pettit held the NBA Finals single game scoring record until Elgin Baylor scored 62 points (which is still the record) in game five of the 1962 NBA Finals, and Pettit is still tied for sixth (with Giannis Antetokounmpo) on the NBA Finals single game scoring list. Pettit's Hawks twice pushed Russell's Celtics to seven games in the NBA Finals (1957, 1960). Pettit averaged 28.4 ppg in his four NBA Finals appearances, which is the seventh highest NBA Finals career scoring average. Note that the NBA Finals MVP award did not exist during Pettit's career.

Pettit's career totals are impacted by the reality that during his era the financial incentives to extend one's NBA playing career did not exist; players from that era also did not have the benefit of the advanced medical technologies and training techniques that exist today, and they had a brutal playing schedule in terms of back to back games and travel conditions. However, Pettit's decade of dominance and his elite per game averages place him among the greatest pro basketball players of all-time. In 2011, the Sporting News put Pettit on its all-time NBA First Team alongside Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Bill Russell, and in my article about the Sporting News' choices I mentioned that I rank Pettit just outside of my 14 player Pantheon. I consider Pettit to be the second greatest power forward behind only Tim Duncan.

Labels: Bill Russell, Bob Cousy, Bob Pettit, Boston Celtics, Elgin Baylor, George Mikan, Jerry West, Milwaukee Hawks, Paul Arizin, St. Louis Hawks, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Yao Ming

posted by David Friedman @ 12:18 AM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2026-27 is on Sale Now

For several decades, the appearance of Lindy's Pro Basketball on store shelves has meant that the NBA season is almost here. The 2026-27 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Roland Lazenby recaps major off-season stories*), "The New Big Men" (Michael Bradley discusses the evolution of how big men play in the NBA), "How to Win in the NBA" (Henry Abbott explains "basketball analytics"), "The Greatest Knick Ever?" (Lazenby makes the case for Earl "The Pearl" Monroe), "Keeping the Faith" (Graham Dunn profiles Tyler Tanner), "NBA Report Card" (Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman previews the 2027 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide (Mike Ashley gives tips to fantasy basketball participants), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby examines Red Auerbach's legacy).

I wrote five team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Dusty May's big jump from college to the pros, Draymond Green's legacy, Joe Dumars' return to his Louisiana roots, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's free throw drawing prowess, and Dylan Harper's championship pedigree.

This is the 18th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I thank Roland Lazenby for the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

*--I am listed on the Contents page as a co-author of Scopin' the NBA, but I did not participate in writing the article this season, so Lazenby deserves full credit. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2025-26 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 10:21 PM

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NBA Penalizes L.A. Clippers, Steve Ballmer, Lawrence Frank, and Gillian Zucker for Salary Cap Circumvention Pertaining to Kawhi Leonard

A 35 page report issued by the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz concluded that the L.A. Clippers circumvented the salary cap to sign Kawhi Leonard:

The investigation finds that the Clippers organization violated the circumvention
rules in numerous independent ways by (i) affirmatively initiating off-court income
opportunities between Mr. Leonard and four different companies doing business with the
team: Aspiration, Boingo Wireless ("Boingo"), Daktronics, and Lockton Insurance
("Lockton"), (ii) facilitating the consummation of endorsement agreements between each
of these companies and Mr. Leonard, including in some cases by participating in the development and communication of deal terms, (iii) inducing the companies to enter into
these agreements by offering and providing them with business from the Clippers,
(iv) paying expenses on behalf of Mr. Leonard and his representatives not authorized by
League rules, and (v) failing to report improper solicitations for off-court income
opportunities made by Mr. Leonard’s uncle and business manager, Dennis Robertson.
The pattern of conduct reflected here—involving four separate arrangements sharing
many common characteristics—further demonstrates the clear violations of NBA rules
set forth in this report.

The Clippers' most senior executives—President of Business Operations Gillian
Zucker and President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank—are primarily and
directly culpable for this misconduct. In addition, Steve Ballmer, owner of the Clippers
and its affiliates, knowingly sought to help Mr. Leonard obtain off-court income
opportunities and, in at least one instance, engaged in a significant act of team
facilitation. Mr. Ballmer also failed to create conditions under which his organization
abided by the NBA’s circumvention rules—an especially egregious lapse because the
Clippers are a prior offender of those rules and were previously and specifically
investigated by the NBA with respect to Mr. Leonard. 

The NBA issued an official press detailing the penalties for the salary cap circumvention documented in the report:

Based on this misconduct, the NBA has imposed the following penalties:

• The Clippers shall forfeit five first-round draft picks, one in each of the 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, and 2033 NBA Drafts.
• The Clippers are fined $30 million.
• Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is suspended from all league and team activities for one year for knowingly seeking to help Mr. Leonard obtain off-court income opportunities, for approving a business deal that he knew was a precondition for Aspiration to enter into an endorsement agreement with Mr. Leonard, and for his failure to create conditions under which his organization abided by the NBA’s circumvention rules.
• Clippers President of Business Operations Gillian Zucker is suspended without pay for one year for being primarily and directly culpable for the impermissible endorsement arrangements and for providing false and misleading statements to investigators.
• Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank is suspended without pay for six months for his involvement with the impermissible endorsement arrangements and for approving impermissible expenses incurred by Mr. Leonard and his family.
• The Clippers organization and personnel are subject to a compliance and monitoring program overseen by the league office for a period of five years.
• In connection with his violations, Mr. Leonard is required to pay the league $700,000.
• Mr. Robertson is banned from conducting business or otherwise engaging with NBA teams and their affiliates on behalf of or with respect to any player, employee, or other league or team personnel for a period of five years.

The NBA and the NBPA have entered into an agreement confirming these penalties are final and binding on all parties. Wachtell Lipton continues to receive information relevant to the investigation, and the league will consider further action as appropriate.

These penalties constitute the harshest punishment directed at one organization in NBA history. Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the maximum penalty for salary cap circumvention is $7.5 million. It appears that the NBA applied that penalty regarding each of the four companies with whom the Clippers conspired to circumvent the salary cap, thus resulting in a $30 million total fine for the Clippers. 

It is important to understand that the NBA has no authority to impose any penalties on the companies directly, and it is limited--if not by law and the terms of the CBA, then by the reality of maintaining a good working relationship with the NBA Players Association--regarding the penalties that it can impose on Leonard. When the NBA punished the Minnesota Timberwolves for circumventing the salary cap to sign Joe Smith, the league voided Smith's contract, and vacated Smith's Larry Bird Rights. By comparison, in this situation Kawhi Leonard received a mere slap on the wrist: a $700,000 fine relating to improper benefits provided directly to Leonard by the Clippers (as opposed to money funneled to Leonard from outside corporations).

One could make a good argument that Leonard should have to repay every dollar that he received above and beyond his legitimate player salary and legitimate endorsement deals, but no enforcement mechanism exists legally or within the NBA's rules to accomplish this. Shareholders and stakeholders in the various companies involved in the salary cap circumvention could possibly have a cause of action against the leaders of those companies if the shareholders and stakeholders can prove that those leaders took actions that caused the value of those companies to decline in a foreseeable and preventable manner. In other words, if the companies lost money or their stock values declined as a result of funneling money to Kawhi Leonard then the shareholders and stakeholders could sue for a breach of fiduciary duty. Perhaps shareholders and stakeholders could also argue that even if the companies did not directly lose money in these deals the companies ran the risk of reputational damage and other negative consequences as a result of participating in circumvention of the NBA's salary cap rules.

The audacity of the conduct of the Clippers' owner and top executives makes one wonder if those people are bolder and more reckless than other NBA owners and top executives, or if what they did is commonplace in the NBA but that other teams are better at covering their tracks. The Clippers publicly responded to the report and the NBA's penalties by stating "We vehemently reject the NBA's findings, which are the result of a heavily biased investigation seeking to justify a predetermined narrative rather than facts and evidence. What the league told us privately differs from what it announced today publicly, and they have not held themselves close to the standard Commissioner Silver set at the start of the investigation to ensure its fairness and accuracy. For the past year, we cooperated fully and in good faith and we will now fight just as hard to demonstrate our innocence. We intend to vigorously challenge these findings and penalties through every avenue available to us and look forward to an ethical and impartial arbitration process." However, it is unclear what recourse is available to the Clippers to overturn the penalties issued by the NBA other than filing a lawsuit.

The past year or so has not been good for the NBA legally or from a reputational standpoint. In addition to the Clippers' significant circumvention of the NBA's salary cap rules, a wide-ranging, two-pronged federal investigation into illegal gambling implicated Hall of Fame player/then-Portland coach Chauncey Billups, retired player Damon Jones, and current player Terry Rozier. In 2024, the NBA banned for life player Jontay Porter for conduct connected to the prop bet manipulation allegations that also involve Jones and Rozier. Porter pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Jones subsequently pleaded guilty to two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. The cases involving Billups, Rozier, and alleged mafia-connected co-conspirators are ongoing. Much like one wonders if the Clippers were unusually bold and reckless or if the team's misconduct is part of a broader salary cap circumvention trend among the league's teams, one wonders if Porter, Jones, and the others were unusually bold and reckless with their criminal conduct (alleged criminal conduct for Billups and Rozier, pending the outcomes of their cases) or if there is a widespread problem of illegal gambling activity within the NBA; that would seem to be a matter worthy of close investigation: the Clippers' actions affected the league's competitive balance, but criminal activity connected with the mafia has a much broader societal impact in addition to affecting the league's credibility and integrity.

The NBA's punishment of the Clippers will likely be viewed in some quarters as vindication for Pablo Torre, whose debut podcast focused on speculation from anonymous accusers that the Clippers had violated the NBA's salary cap rules. Torre's podcast created a media storm. In Analyzing the Media Storm Surrounding the L.A. Clippers, I wrote, "I deliberately left the words 'accusation' and 'scandal' out of this article's title because I don't know if the L.A. Clippers violated the NBA's salary cap rules. You don't know, either, even though you may think that you do. The only things that we know are (1) there is a media storm surrounding the L.A. Clippers, and (2) the NBA is investigating the Clippers for a possible violation of the league's salary cap rules." While the law firm's investigation was still in process, Torre won a Pulitzer Prize for his series of podcasts that speculated about the Clippers allegedly circumventing the NBA's salary cap rule--and I asserted that regardless of the outcome of the investigation, it was premature to award a Pulitzer Prize to Pablo Torre before verifying the veracity of his allegations and speculations.

During the investigative process, many commentators complained about how long the investigation lasted, and some speculated that the NBA was engaging in a coverup. Mike Wilbon asserted that the NBA would never penalize Balmer because Balmer is too wealthy and too important to the league. The report explains that investigators conducted 73 interviews of 60 different people while also reviewing 200,000 pages of documents. The investigation was prolonged because the Clippers did not respond on a timely basis to some of the questions. There is a big difference in substance and quality between putting together a podcast--for which there are no standards of evidence or investigation protocols--compared with drafting a report with findings of fact and conclusions based on careful evaluation of evidence. What matters is the findings of fact and evidence-based conclusions of the law firm's report, not what is said and speculated about on a podcast or in other media outlets.

The outcome of the investigation does not invalidate my previous assertions: from September 2025 until the NBA released the law firm's report on September 2, 2026, it had not been proven that the Clippers violated any NBA rules, and thus it was premature to award one of the journalism field's most prestigious honors to Torre and his team. It is worth noting that the law firm's report states that its conclusions are not based on "public allegations or theories of misconduct by the Clippers or Mr. Leonard that were not ultimately substantiated by the investigative record."

Labels: Dennis Robertson, Gillian Zucker, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Lawrence Frank, Pablo Torre, Steve Ballmer

posted by David Friedman @ 10:43 PM

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Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2026 Class Includes Amar'e Stoudemire, Doc Rivers, Mike D'Antoni, and Joey Crawford

The 2026 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class includes four inductees with NBA ties: referee Joey Crawford, player Amar'e Stoudemire, and coaches Doc Rivers and Mike D'Antoni. The other inductees this year are men's college basketball coach Mark Few, and women's players Elena Delle Donne, Chamique Holdsclaw, and Candace Parker. The 1996 United States Women's National Team that won the Olympic gold medal is also being inducted; that team includes six players who have already been inducted individually: Teresa Edwards, Lisa Leslie, Rebecca Lobo, Katrina McClain, Dawn Staley, and Sheryl Swoopes.  

Joey Crawford was presented by former NBA President of Basketball Operations Rod Thorn. Fellow referee Danny Crawford had been listed as a presenter but was not able to attend the ceremony. Joey Crawford said that his father, Shag Crawford, was his inspiration to become a referee. Shag Crawford was a National League umpire for 20 years, including more than 3000 games and three World Series. Joey Crawford holds the records for most NBA playoff games officiated (374) and most NBA Finals games officiated (50).  

Joey Crawford said, "I love baseball, but basketball was my bag" ever since early childhood. His father introduced him to NBA referee Jake O'Donnell (who was considered a great referee until his career ended in disgrace after an unwarranted ejection of Clyde Drexler), and Crawford said that O'Donnell not only inspired him at that time but that his first encounter with O'Donnell influenced him to help out young referees after he was an established referee. "It's my way of giving back," Crawford explained.

Crawford began his officiating journey in Philadelphia, and received his first break when he got the opportunity to officiate in the legendary Baker League. His next stop was the Eastern League, the forerunner of the Continental Basketball Association (CBA). After four years in the Eastern League, Crawford was hired as an NBA referee in 1977. He worked as a referee until 2016, and still works for the NBA to this day. 

Mike D'Antoni was presented by Jerry Colangelo, Bob McAdoo, Steve Nash, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Rod Thorn. Casual fans may not realize how good of a player D'Antoni was before he became an NBA coach. He was named the greatest guard in Italian LBA League history after leading his team to five Italian League titles, two FIBA European Champions Cup (now called EuroLeague) titles, two Italian Cups, one FIBA Korać Cup, and one FIBA Intercontinental Cup. D'Antoni smoothly transitioned from playing to coaching, winning a FIBA European Cup, a FIBA Korać Cup, and an Italian Cup in seven years before heading back to the United States to work in the NBA. After D'Antoni's initial forays in the NBA as an assistant coach, head coach in Denver (briefly), and scout, he returned to Italy to coach, adding another Italian League title to his resume. D'Antoni returned to the NBA in 2002 as an assistant coach in Phoenix, and he soon became the head coach. The rest is history: "Seven Seconds or Less" became a catchphrase (and a book) as the Suns' run and gun style electrified the league, resulting in two Western Conference Finals appearances, two regular season MVP awards for Steve Nash, and the Hall of Fame inductions of Nash, D'Antoni, and Stoudemire. After leaving the Suns, D'Antoni only reached the Western Conference Finals one more time, in 2018 with Houston. His teams lost in the first round or missed the playoffs in six of the last 10 seasons of his career.

D'Antoni began his speech by calling this "a profound and unexpected honor." He said that growing up in West Virginia he had two idols: Rod Thorn and Jerry West. Thorn later became D'Antoni's coach in the ABA. D'Antoni said that going to Marshall University he learned not only the fast paced style of play he later came to symbolize, but also resilience after the school and the community mourned in the aftermath of a 1970 airplane crash that killed 75 people, including 37 of Marshall's football players.

D'Antoni said, "Sometimes life disappointments can take you exactly where you belong." He did not have a lengthy playing career in the ABA or NBA, but that led him to Italy, where he enjoyed such great success as a player and as a coach. In Italy, D'Antoni refined the run and gun style of play that he later brought to the NBA; his teams pushed the ball and spread the floor to create open three pointers, which (for better or worse) is the way that almost every NBA team plays now.

D'Antoni thanked his wife Laurel for 42 years of support and of being a great mother. He emotionally said that the day his son Michael was born was the best day of his life, adding that he never expected the emotions that come with fatherhood, a sentiment with which this father can relate. 

D'Antoni briefly mentioned his experiences coaching the New York Knicks, L.A. Lakers, and Houston Rockets, and he singled out James Harden as one of the most talented players he coached. D'Antoni concluded, "Basketball is always evolving. Players improve, front offices adapt, coaches innovate. I was fortunate to coach players and work with organizations that were willing to embrace change. Together we helped revolutionize pace, space, and the three point shot. But the game keeps evolving, coaches like Steve Kerr keep pushing it forward. If the Hall of Fame is about leaving impact, I hope mine is simple: we made the game a little faster, a little brighter, and a heck of a lot more fun. I am the luckiest man in the world to spend my life doing what I love alongside people I love. Thank you."

Doc Rivers was presented by the "Big Three" players from his 2008 Boston championship team: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen. Rivers earned one All-Star selection during his 13 season playing career, and he worked as a broadcaster before he became a coach and at times when he was in between coaching jobs. Rivers ranks sixth in career regular season coaching wins (1192) and fourth in career playoff coaching wins (114) with one NBA title (Boston 2008) and two Eastern Conference titles (2008, 2010) to his credit. In 2022, Rivers was selected as one of the 15 greatest coaches in NBA history. 

Rivers clarified for those who don't know that his real first name is not Doc but Glenn (he received the nickname Doc as a youngster because he wore a Dr. J shirt to a basketball camp). He said that his role models growing up included his uncle Jim Brewer, who played in the NBA, and his cousin Ken Singleton, who played Major League Baseball. Rivers believed that he could be a pro athlete because he had seen two family members do it before him.

Rivers said that his "first real basketball dream" was to beat his older brother Gar, who used to beat him 32-0 in one on one games. Rivers said that his brother has always been happy for his success, and that this means so much to him. He mentioned that this support means even more after you reach the stage in life when both of your parents have passed away, noting that many of the inductees who spoke before him talked about the impact that their parents had on their lives. Rivers implored that if you still have your parents, "Hug them, I'm just telling you, because when they're gone, they're gone, and they're gone forever."

Rivers' father was a police officer and little league coach. His father "pounded" one particular life lesson into the Rivers household: "There will be no victims in the Rivers family," meaning that there would be no whining or complaining when something bad happens. Rivers' mother always told him, "You are right where you are supposed to be." Rivers said that message sounds good when things are going well, but is not so pleasant when things are going poorly--but the point is that when things are tough you pick yourself up and keep moving forward.

Rivers mentioned several mentors in the coaching ranks, including George Raveling, Lenny Wilkens, K.C. Jones, and John Thompson. When Rivers was a high school senior, he heard Raveling say, "Use the basketball and don't let the basketball use you," and that message profoundly influenced him. Wayne Embry "served as a sounding board for me throughout my life whenever I needed wisdom, poise, or just needed to be reminded to be a leader."

Rivers said that the worst argument he ever had with a coach as a player was with Pat Riley, who told him at that time, "One day when you are a head coach--and you will be one--you're going to understand exactly where I'm coming from." Rivers recalled telling Riley that he would never become a coach because every coach he knows seems nuts. Rivers said that now he wants to thank Riley for "being right on all counts." He added that a valuable lesson he learned from Riley is to never coach a person as he is today but rather to push him to become who he should be someday.

Rivers thanked the "Big Three" and all of the players and coaches from Boston's 2008 championship team. He said that when you win a championship together it is like having a "blood transfusion" that connects you "for the rest of your lives."

He concluded by thanking his family, including ex-wife Kristin, who he praised for her loyalty to him and their kids throughout his coaching career. Rivers said that she had a list of anyone who did him or them wrong and that he wanted to be like Michael Jordan and name names but his daughter told him that he can't do that so he'll keep things moving. Rivers mentioned each of his children by name and thanked them for the sacrifices that they made while he was away from home coaching. Rivers said that having seven grandchildren is "just awesome." He expressed his pride in being the first father to coach his son (Austin) in the NBA.  

Amar'e Stoudemire was presented by Jerry Colangelo, Mike D’Antoni, Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash, and Rick Welts. Stoudemire provided the paint presence and inside scoring for D'Antoni's run and gun Phoenix teams. From 2005-09, Stoudemire averaged 23.2 ppg and 9.0 rpg while shooting .567 from the field, making the All-Star team four times and earning three All-NBA selections during that five year span (and he was limited to just three games due to injury in one of those seasons).

Stoudemire began by thanking God and thanking his mother, noting that he said his prayers as a kid and that he always obeyed his mother, traits that he feels served him well while growing up in poverty. He next thanked both the Hall of Fame and the Naismith family. Stoudemire thanked the fans, all of his teammates, and all of his coaches. He singled out Jerry Colangelo, Rick Welts, and the Phoenix Suns for molding him after he jumped straight to the NBA from high school.

Stoudemire said that his journey is defined by "perseverance." Stoudemire thanked his father "of blessed memory" for taking him to his first basketball game; at that game, Stoudemire saw his cousin dunk the ball and hang on the rim, and Stoudemire began to believe that he could eventually do that as well. Stoudemire's first basketball was a gift from his mother, and he described basketball as both a "best friend" and "a therapist." 

Stoudemire cited McGrady as an influence who showed that it is possible for a Florida kid to go straight to the NBA from high school. It is remarkable that Stoudemire did not play organized basketball until he was 14 and he only played two years of high school basketball before the Suns selected him with the ninth pick in the 2002 NBA Draft. Stoudemire credited veteran players Penny Hardaway, Tom Gugliotta, and Stephon Marbury with answering his questions and mentoring him during his rookie season. He also connected with team broadcaster (and retired NBA player) Eddie Johnson, as well as other team staffers and personnel. Stoudemire's thirst for knowledge and wisdom is evident.

After talking about his time playing for Phoenix, New York, and Miami (he did not mention his brief stint in Dallas), Stoudemire said that as his NBA career ended he had "secretly" been studying Torah for 20 years and that he wanted to move where he could play basketball while continuing those studies. Stoudemire played pro basketball in Israel for several years, finishing his career by winning an Israeli Premier League championship and the Finals MVP.  

Stoudemire thanked his wife, and he thanked and his six children, who he took everywhere with him throughout his career. He closed by saying that the most important thing for him in his journey besides perseverance was "staying out of trouble." He grew up in difficult circumstances, but he stayed focused on his dream and on his goal. 

Selected Articles About Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies:

Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and 2008 "Redeem Team" Headline Nine Member 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class (Class of 2025)

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Inducts 13 Member 2024 Class, Including Vince Carter and Jerry West (Class of 2024) 

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2023 Class Includes Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and Gregg Popovich (Class of 2023)

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2022 Class Includes NBA Players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili (Class of 2022)  

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes 15 New Members and Honors Bill Russell a Second Time (Class of 2021)

Kobe Bryant Headlines the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Class of 2020) 

The Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes A Diverse Class of 12 Inductees (Class of 2019)

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2018)

Reflections on the 2017 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony 

Reflections on the Basketball Hall of Fame Class of 2016 

Bobby "Slick" Leonard Remembers the ABA During his Basketball Hall of Fame Speech (Class of 2014)

The Basketball Hall of Fame Belatedly Welcomes Roger Brown (Class of 2013)

Reflections on the 2012 Basketball Hall of Fame Class 

The A-Train Makes an Overdue Arrival at the Basketball Hall of Fame  (Class of 2011)

Dreams and Memories--Some Personal Reflections on the 2006 Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2006)

Labels: Amar'e Stoudemire, Basketball Hall of Fame, Doc Rivers, Joey Crawford, Mike D'Antoni

posted by David Friedman @ 12:03 AM

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