20 Second Timeout

The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug

The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.

The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called  "Tanking to the Top," but the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven fact: tanking does not work. 

The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. 

Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.

It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.

Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM

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Thoughts About the Second Round: "Playoff Harden," Red Hot Knicks, Redick's Rhetoric, and San Antonio's Youth Versus Minnesota's Experience

The James Harden playoff era with the Cleveland Cavaliers began 2-0 but has taken a predictably downhill trajectory after that auspicious start: Harden amassed 38 turnovers and 35 field goals made in his next seven playoff game while shooting .385 from the field, and the Cavaliers are 2-5 in those games. In his last four playoff games, Harden has shot 17-51 (.333) from the field while committing 17 turnovers, and the Cavaliers are 1-3 in those games, with the one win happening mainly because Jarrett Allen had a double double in the third quarter versus a shorthanded Toronto team. 

The Detroit Pistons lead the Cavaliers 2-0 in their second round series after opening game two with a 14-5 run before winning, 107-97. The second game looked much like the first game, a 111-101 Pistons victory. Harden had 22 points on 6-15 field goal shooting with seven assists and seven turnovers in the first game before fully activating "Playoff Harden" mode in game two: 10 points on 3-13 field goal shooting, three assists, and four turnovers--a "concert tour" field goal percentage combined with his trademark "Harden" (a game in which a player--usually Harden, hence the name--has more turnovers than field goals made).

It is baffling that the Cavaliers' front office believed that Harden would be the missing piece for a championship run, and it is bizarre to hear his coach and teammates publicly praise his basketball IQ, his playoff experience, and his leadership. High basketball IQ players do not consistently have more turnovers than field goals made in the most important games, experience means nothing if the experience consists of choking while losing, and leadership is supposed to mean helping a group or a team complete a mission, not being a major reason that a group or a team fails to complete a mission.

I am trying to picture how Harden exercises leadership by sharing his high basketball IQ playoff experiences in the Cavaliers' locker room: does he wax poetic about when he had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in last year's 120-101 elimination game loss to the Denver Nuggets, or does he speak in general about shooting .399 from the field while averaging 5.9 tpg as his teams went 2-9 in his first 11 elimination games after he fled Oklahoma City? 

When it matters most, you can count on Harden to consistently do four things: 1) shoot less often than usual (which throws off the rhythm of his team), 2) shoot a lousy percentage from the field, 3) turn the ball over at a high rate, and 4) be slow to get back on defense after turning the ball over.  

Harden's awful play should not completely distract from how the Pistons are manhandling 2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, who had one more rebound than a dead man in game two. The Cavaliers are a low energy team, and it is safe to say that Harden's careless, desultory play is not energizing any of his teammates. A great player cannot control how his teammates play, but a great player typically has an impact that makes his team better, particularly in the games that matter most. Harden is labeled as a great player, but his impact on team success does not match that label.

The series shifts to Cleveland for the next two games. It took the Pistons seven games to eliminate the Orlando Magic in the first round, so it would not be surprising if the Cavaliers win a game or even two at home, but it will be very surprising if the Cavaliers win four of the next five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" That article is in draft mode now, and I expect to post it sooner rather than later.

In the Eastern Conference's other second round series, the New York Knicks are on an impressive run since falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. The Knicks lead the Philadelphia 76ers 2-0 after humiliating the 76ers 137-98 in the series opener before surviving game two, 108-102. After seeing the Knicks drive by Joel Embiid as if he were a traffic cone in game one, the Boston Celtics should be sick to their stomachs about jacking up 49 three pointers in their 109-100 game seven loss to the 76ers; if they had attacked Embiid to wear him out and get him in foul trouble then it is likely that they would have earned the right to battle the Knicks in the second round. Embiid missed game two versus the Knicks due to ankle and hip injuries, and he is listed as questionable for game three. He is still a force in the paint offensively when he wants to be, but sliding his feet on defense--or even staying upright--has been challenging for him. Embiid exploited the Celtics' inexperienced centers, but the Knicks have the size and strength to battle with him, so in some ways that 76ers look better without him--at least in this particular matchup.

Turning our attention to the Western Conference, J.J. Redick's postgame press conferences after losses are fascinating. According to Redick, his team's losses can primarily be attributed to not following the game plan. Put another way, if only his players were smart enough and disciplined enough to execute his brilliant game plans then the L.A. Lakers would never lose. When asked about specific things he could tell his players, Redick consistently says "I have already conveyed that message to them" or words to that effect. In other words, "I told them everything that they need to know to be successful, so if they fail then that is their fault, not mine."

As a player, Redick never won a championship in college or in the NBA. It is interesting to listen to press conferences of championship coaches on the rare occasions when their teams lose; they tend to give credit to the opposing team, and they tend to accept blame for things that they could have done better. Bill Belichick has won more Super Bowls than any coach--and his Super Bowl-winning defensive game plan from Super Bowl XXV when he was the New York Giants' defensive coordinator is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame--but when his teams lost he would often say that he has to coach better and the players have to play better. When was the last time that Redick admitted that he needs to coach better? 

Last year, Redick's Lakers lost 4-1 in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves, after which I discussed the biggest mismatch in the series: 

The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.

The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.

Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.

This year, the shorthanded Lakers beat the shorthanded, dysfunctional Houston Rockets 4-2 in the first round to give Redick his first playoff series win as a coach, but now they are halfway toward being swept in the second round. The Thunder are without the services of their second best player, Jalen Williams (grade 1 left hamstring strain), but they posted the NBA's best regular season despite him missing most of the season, and it is evident that they don't need him to beat the Lakers, who are missing their best player as Luka Doncic recovers from a left hamstring injury. The Thunder keep rolling along because they minimize distractions/drama while collectively playing hard and smart at both ends of the court. 

After the Thunder dispatch the Lakers, they will face the winner of the San Antonio-Minnesota series. The Minnesota Timberwolves may be the NBA's version of Rasputin--any time you count them out, they rise to the occasion. Maybe we should not be surprised that a team that has reached the Western Conference Finals each of the past two years is resilient and tough. The Thunder lost Donte DiVincenzo to a season-ending torn right Achilles, Ayo Dosunmu is out with calf and heel injuries, and Anthony Edwards is hobbling around with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise, but the Timberwolves took out the Denver Nuggets in six games in the first round before beating the Spurs 104-102 in game one to steal homecourt advantage. The Spurs bounced back to win game two 133-95 but now must play the next two games in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a veteran team with a lot of positive recent playoff experience, while the Spurs' key rotation players have very little playoff experience. The Spurs need to get a split on the road to regain homecourt advantage, and two wins would put them in the driver's seat heading back home for game five. Game three will tell us a lot about how long this series will last, because this is the Spurs' first real postseason challenge after winning 4-1 in the first round versus the outmatched Portland Trail Blazers. I picked the Spurs to beat the Timberwolves in six games, and if the teams split the next two games then we are probably on track for that result, because I expect the shorthanded Timberwolves to wear down as this series progresses.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, J.J. Redick, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 9:31 AM

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Pablo Torre's Pulitzer Win is the Latest Example of Declining Journalistic Standards

Jay Mariotti made an excellent point about the Pulitzer Prize that has been awarded to Pablo Torre's New York Times-sponsored podcast: 

In Analyzing the Media Storm Surrounding the L.A. Clippers, I raised some of the same concerns that Mariotti mentioned:

I deliberately left the words "accusation" and "scandal" out of this article's title because I don't know if the L.A. Clippers violated the NBA's salary cap rules. You don't know, either, even though you may think that you do. The only things that we know are (1) there is a media storm surrounding the L.A. Clippers, and (2) the NBA is investigating the Clippers for a possible violation of the league's salary cap rules. 

Unless you avoid all media outlets and social media outlets--which may not be the worst way to live--you are aware that podcaster Pablo Torre accused the L.A. Clippers and their majority owner Steve Ballmer of circumventing the NBA's salary cap rules by arranging for Kawhi Leonard to be paid $28 million by a sustainability startup called Aspiration for an allegedly "no show" job that involved no work (feel free to insert a joke about Leonard also not working at his main job due to load management).

Torre was armed mainly with anonymous sources speaking about a stack of documents allegedly pertaining to the business dealings, bankruptcy proceedings, and federal prosecution for fraud of Aspiration. Joe Sanberg, Aspiration's founder, pleaded guilty to two counts of wire fraud for his role in a $248 million scam...

It is fascinating to listen to non-lawyers talk about legal issues. An anonymous source speaking on a podcast is not presenting evidence from a legal standpoint; a person testifying under oath or a person submitting a sworn affidavit is presenting evidence.

So, not only do we not know for sure the facts concerning the relationships that may or may not exist among the L.A. Clippers, Kawhi Leonard, and Aspiration, we also do not know the legal significance of such relationships.

It is wise to reserve judgment about the credibility and motives of the anonymous sources interviewed on a podcast sponsored by "The Athletic," which is owned by The New York Times. The New York Times has been a shady organization in a variety of ways for a long time, including treating writers shabbily, and refusing to apologize after falsely accusing three Duke student athletes of rape. Torre assures everyone that he has total editorial independence, notwithstanding the funding he receives from The New York Times. It must be just a fortunate coincidence that Torre happened to break such a big story in the first edition of his podcast after his partnership with "The Athletic"/The New York Times was formalized; there is no doubt that Torre and "The Athletic"/The New York Times are not motivated at all by such crass concerns as money or clicks, and that they live by a credo consisting of truth, justice, and defending the sanctity of the NBA's salary cap rules...

All we have for sure right now is a media storm generating clicks, page views, ratings, and social media activity. That is not to say that there is no substance here; the NBA will investigate the assertions, and make a determination regarding whether the L.A. Clippers circumvented salary cap rules. The NBA's announcement of the results of that investigation is news; Torre's podcast and the ensuing media storm is what Daniel J. Boorstin called a "pseudo-event" in his seminal book The Image. Boorstin described what constitutes a pseudo-event (p. 11):

1) It is not spontaneous, but comes about because someone has planned, planted, or incited it. Typically, it is not a train wreck or an earthquake, but an interview.

2) It is planted primarily (but not always exclusively) for the immediate purpose of being reported or reproduced...The question "Is it real?" is less important than, "Is it newsworthy?"

3) Its relation to the underlying reality of the situation is ambiguous...

4) Usually it is intended to be a self-fulfilling prophecy...

Torre could have presented to the NBA privately the information that he found. If the NBA determined that the Clippers had violated rules, that announcement would have been a news event--but a debut podcast sponsored by a legacy media outlet and expected to deliver a big attention-grabbing splash is not a news event: it is Torre talking about something less from the standpoint of "Is it real?" and more from the standpoint of "Is it newsworthy?" or how much attention it will bring to Torre and his new partnership with "The Athletic"/The New York Times.

It is important to be able to distinguish events from "pseudo-events" and to distinguish journalism from sensationalism. Media members--and consumers of media content/social media content--would do well to read The Image and learn from Boorstin's wise words:

Boorstin notes that the traditional expectation of news reporters was that they would report on significant events that happened; if nothing significant happened, "He could not be expected to report what did not exist" (p. 8). Boorstin observes that in the twentieth century, the expectation of what a news reporter should do shifted dramatically: "If he cannot find a story, then he must make one--by the questions he asks of public figures, by the surprising human interest he unfolds from some commonplace event, or by 'the news behind the news'" (p. 8). Boorstin adds, "Demanding more than the world can give us, we require that something be fabricated to make up for the world's deficiency" (p. 9). Boorstin calls these fabrications "pseudo-events," a neologism based on the Greek word "pseudo," which means false. 

The incessant attempt to create news and excitement where no news and no excitement exists can be observed in the ridiculous questions asked by many reporters at basketball games, at the World Chess Championship, and at almost any press conference pertaining to politics or public affairs.

If the NBA's investigation of the L.A. Clippers finds that the Clippers did not violate any NBA rules then Torre and the Pulitzer Prize Board will look foolish--but even if the Clippers violated NBA rules, Mariotti is correct that it is premature to honor Torre for "seemingly" breaking a story. 

The collapse of journalism as a serious profession is sad. During my writing career, I have encountered a lot of shady people doing shady things in this profession, and I have called them out by name when they steal my ideas without proper attribution (Ming Wong) or added insult to injury by plagiarizing my words while also making factually incorrect statements (Vincent Mallozzi); these are just some examples of the general decline in the quality of published writing that has been taking place for decades, and it is unfortunate that this decline appears to be accelerating.

Labels: Daniel Boorstin, Jay Mariotti, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Ming Wong, Pablo Torre, Steve Ballmer, Vincent Mallozzi

posted by David Friedman @ 10:46 PM

3 comments

Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form a reliable 1-2 scoring punch while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen dominate in the paint. The Cavaliers, who have looked soft at times this season, must meet force with force at both ends of the court.

Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring during the regular season (27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .483/.364/.865) and he led the Cavaliers in scoring during their 4-3 first round win over the Toronto Raptors (23.1 ppg with shooting splits of .438/.333/.875). The obvious differences are that both his scoring and his field goal shooting dropped precipitously from the regular season to the playoffs. His regular season scoring and field goal percentage both were just below his career high numbers (28.3 ppg and .484 field goal shooting in 2022-23), but his playoff scoring is on pace to be the second-worst of his nine postseason appearances. After scoring 32 points and 30 points as the Cavaliers won the first two games of the series, Mitchell scored 24 points or less in each of the next five games. Mitchell's playoff career has been filled with highs--including leading the league in playoff scoring in 2020 (36.3 ppg on .529 field goal shooting)--and lows, but his teams are 0-4 in second round series, which dulls the shine of his 27.8 ppg career playoff scoring average (seventh best all-time).

Harden averaged 20.6 ppg and a team-high 6.1 apg versus the Raptors, numbers that are in line with his regular season numbers in the 26 games he played with the Cavaliers (20.5 ppg, 7.7 apg)--but Harden's turnovers jumped from 3.2 tpg in the regular season with Cleveland to 5.1 tpg versus the Raptors. His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume as of 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and in the next three years he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025. Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.

After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" Nothing that I saw in the Toronto series made me alter the article template that I prepared for Cleveland's elimination game loss.

The Evan Mobley-Tim Duncan comparisons are delusional, but when Mobley is at his best he is one of the top big men in the league. He ranked third on the team in scoring versus Toronto (18.1 ppg) while leading the team in rebounding (8.6 rpg). Mobley is a very good player, but he is not a dominant player in the way that Duncan controlled the action at both ends of the court.

Charles Barkley often says that Jarrett Allen seems too nice, and the first six games of the Toronto series validated that observation, but Allen showed a little nastiness just in time to save the Cavaliers in game seven with a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots. Allen had a double double in the third quarter alone (14 points, 11 rebounds) as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 38-19. Allen's dominating performance saved the day, and let Harden off the hook despite his typically erratic elimination game field goal shooting.

Detroit will win because...the Pistons are more physical than the Cavaliers and because Cade Cunningham is the best player on either team.

Cavaliers versus Pistons is the NBA's version of a "run and shoot" NFL offense versus a team that plays "ground and pound" offense while knocking you around on defense. During the regular season, the Pistons ranked 28th in three point field goals made but they finished third in field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and third in defensive field goal percentage; during the playoffs, the Pistons rank 16th (last) in three point field goals made per game, but first in points allowed and first in defensive field goal percentage. Granted, the Pistons' playoff defensive numbers are boosted by playing the Orlando Magic, who just fired coach Jamahl Mosley in no small part because of the Magic's historically inept offense, but the Pistons will pose far more challenges for the Cavaliers than the Raptors did.

Cunningham seems poised to be an MVP candidate and All-NBA Team member for years to come after averaging 23.9 ppg and 9.9 apg (second in the league) during the regular season before averaging 32.4 ppg and 7.1 apg as the Pistons defeated the Magic, 4-3. He is taller, bigger, and younger than Mitchell and Harden, and--unlike the Cavaliers' guards--he consistently plays hard on defense in addition to running the Pistons' offense.

Jalen Duren disappeared at times versus Orlando, but he came up big in Detroit's 116-04 game seven win (15 points, game-high 15 rebounds), and he averaged a team-high 9.4 rpg during the series. He is an efficient scorer (.528 field goal percentage versus the Magic) who understands his limitations (he did not attempt a three pointer in the first round). The Pistons need him to be productive versus Mobley and Allen.

Tobias Harris has made a career out of being the third option but in the first round he averaged 21.6 ppg, trailing only Cunningham. He erupted for 30 points in game seven.

Ausar Thompson provides defense, rebounding (8.7 rpg versus the Magic) and efficient scoring (8.1 ppg on .510 field goal shooting versus the Magic), while Duncan Robinson is a three point sniper whose defense is much improved. 

Other things to consider: The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff in 2024 after he led the team to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His replacement Kenny Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to the Eastern Conference's best record (64-18) but the Cavaliers again lost in the second round. Meanwhile, after the Pistons hired Bickerstaff in 2024 their win total jumped from 14 to 44, and Bickerstaff finished second to Atkinson in the Coach of the Year voting. This season, the Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record while the Cavaliers regressed to the fourth seed. This playoff series cannot provide a definitive verdict on Cleveland's decision to replace Bickerstaff with Atkinson, but the overall trendline of the past two seasons seems to favor Detroit over Cleveland.

Speaking of coaching, it must be mentioned that both teams were pushed to seven games by lower seeded first round opponents.

Cunningham is the seventh player to have at least 30 points (team-high 32) and at least 10 assists (game-high 12) in a game seven as he led the Pistons to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit versus the eighth seeded Magic. It is not surprising that the Pistons won the series, but it is baffling that the offensively challenged Magic--who scored less than 100 points in four of the seven games--beat the Pistons three times. 

The Cavaliers jumped out to a 2-0 series lead but then struggled to close out the undermanned Raptors, who finished the series without the services of leading regular season scorer Brandon Ingram (left heel injury suffered in game five) and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (who missed the entire series with a right hamstring strain). In game seven, the Cavaliers trailed 47-38 with 2:58 remaining in the first half before tying the score at 49-49 by halftime. The Cavaliers opened the third quarter with a 9-0 run, and they maintained a double digit lead for the final 16:53 of the game thanks to strong second half performances by Allen (16 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, 14 rebounds) and Mitchell (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) to overcome a typical Harden disappearing act in the second half of an elimination game (eight points on 1-4 field goal shooting). 

Before beating the Magic, the Pistons had not won a playoff series since 2008, while the Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. Playoff experience matters, but when neither team has meaningful collective playoff experience other important factors have added weight. Such factors include which team has the best player, which team is more physical, which team plays better defense, and which team has homecourt advantage. The Pistons have the advantage in all of those categories.

Detroit will defeat Cleveland in six games.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Tobias Harris

posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 PM

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New York Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#3 New York (53-29) vs. #7 Philadelphia (45-37)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid stays relatively healthy and is a dominant force in the paint at both ends of the court to supplement the perimeter productivity of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and V.J. Edgecombe. 

The 76ers came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the first round, marking the first time in franchise history that the 76ers won a series after trailing 3-1, and the first time that the 76ers defeated the Celtics in a playoff series since Julius Erving (29 points, five assists, four rebounds, three steals, and three blocked shots) and Andrew Toney (34 points, six assists) came up big in a 120-106 game seven win in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals.

Embiid missed the first three games of the first round while he recovered from an emergency appendectomy; the 76ers went 1-2 in the games that he missed, and then went 3-1 the rest of the way. Embiid led the 76ers in scoring (28.0 ppg), rebounding (9.0 rpg) and assists (7.0 apg), and the 76ers would not have won the series without his significant contributions. The Celtics could not defend him in the paint, and he drew double teams that created easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Embiid had a game-high 34 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds in the 76ers' 109-100 game seven win. He also had six assists and just one turnover. Embiid producing in the clutch is a bit of a surprise, because he has a 6-7 career playoff series record, including 0-5 in second round series. His career playoff field goal percentage is .458, significantly worse than his career regular season field goal percentage (.500), and his scoring declines similarly from the regular season (27.6 ppg) to the playoffs (25.1 ppg)

Embiid is the 76ers' most dominant player, while Maxey is the team's most consistent and reliable player. During the regular season, Maxey set career highs in scoring (28.3 ppg), assists (6.6 apg), rebounds (4.1 rpg), and steals (1.9 spg) while leading the NBA in minutes (38.0 mpg). He is averaging 40.9 mpg in the playoffs, and he led the league in playoff mpg (44.5) during the 2024 playoffs. Maxey scored 30 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while playing 45 minutes in game seven, and he looked as fresh at the end of the game as he did at the beginning. He led the 76ers with seven assists while also contributing 11 rebounds and committing just one turnover.

V.J. Edgecombe added 23 points, six rebounds, and four assists in game seven, and he averaged 15.1 ppg during the series. Paul George chipped in 13 points in game seven, and he ranked third on the team in scoring (17.4 ppg) during the series while also playing strong defense. 

New York will win because...the Knicks have enough size to reasonably contain Embiid without double teaming so often that the 76ers' perimeter players consistently get open shots. The Knicks also have good perimeter defensive players, and they have a new offense with Karl-Anthony Towns operating as the hub while Jalen Brunson works off of the ball more often than he has since joining the Knicks, similar to the way that he played alongside Luka Doncic with the Dallas Mavericks.

The Knicks trailed the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round before winning the next three games in dominant fashion, culminating in a complete dismantling of the Hawks in game six: the Knicks raced to the biggest halftime lead in NBA playoff history-- 83-36--en route to a 140-89 win. The Knicks led by as much as 61 points, and set franchise records for most points in a playoff game and largest victory margin in a playoff game.

Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (26.3 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) versus the Hawks, and OG Anunoby ranked second in scoring (21.5 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.7 rpg) while shooting .611 from the field, but an argument could be made that Towns was the most valuable player: he led the Knicks in rebounding (11.3 rpg) and blocked shots (1.7 bpg), ranked second in assists (6.0 apg), and finished third in scoring (18.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.444/.927. Towns, who never had a playoff triple double prior to 2026, had triple doubles in games five (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and seven (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Towns' previous playoff career-high for assists had been six.

The Knicks are averaging 117.8 ppg in the playoffs, and if they can keep up that pace versus the 76ers then they will wear down and wear out Embiid. 

Other things to consider: Prior to this season, the Knicks fired coach Tom Thibodeau after he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Owner James Dolan has made it clear that anything less than a championship will not be considered successful or acceptable. There is obviously a lot of pressure on coach Mike Brown and his players to fulfill Dolan's lofty expectations, but the Knicks are certainly capable of at least reaching the NBA Finals; beating the Oklahoma City Thunder--or a team good enough to eliminate the Thunder--will be a daunting task, though.

The Knicks have an excellent defense, and a good offense that improved dramatically in the latter portion of the series versus the Hawks. Their roster is deeper and more well-balanced than the 76ers' roster.

The 76ers received a major break when Jayson Tatum, who led the Celtics in rebounding (10.7 rpg) and assists (6.8 apg) while ranking second in scoring (23.3 ppg) during the series, was a late scratch for game seven because of left knee stiffness. Without Tatum's presence in the paint at both ends of the court, the 76ers outrebounded the Celtics 42-34 after the Celtics outrebounded the 76ers in the first six games of the series. The Knicks lead the playoffs in rebounding differential (+9.0), while the 76ers rank 14th out of 16 playoff teams (-6.6); the 76ers' number is a little deceptive because it includes three games without Embiid, but even with Embiid in the lineup the Knicks should--and must--win the rebounding battle.

In game seven, the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range, and repeatedly failed to attack Embiid defensively. Embiid has never been in peak physical condition, and despite his strong performance in the latter part of this series it was evident that he was fatigued. He also was often hobbling on unsteady legs, and the Celtics should have used his vulnerability to their advantage by isolating him in screen/roll actions and then forcing him to slide his feet; this would have further fatigued him, and possibly put him in foul trouble.The Knicks should attack Embiid and make him work on defense--and they have the personnel to do that both in the direct center to center matchup with Towns or backup center Mitchell Robinson, and on switches if they can force Embiid to guard Brunson.

New York will defeat Philadelphia in six games.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 2:16 PM

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Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29) 

Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0 

L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.

The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.

While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. 

Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.

Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.

The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).

Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.  

Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.

Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season. 

In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.

Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.

Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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San Antonio Versus Minnesota Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#2 San Antonio (62-20) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)

Season series: Minnesota, 2-1 

Minnesota can win if…the Timberwolves bully the Spurs in the paint and slow down the Spurs' transition game. The Timberwolves defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the first round, and they have eliminated the Nuggets twice in the past three seasons (2024, 2026) after losing to the Nuggets during the Nuggets' 2023 championship season. The Timberwolves are seeking their third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Golden State Warriors reached the Western Conference Finals five consecutive times (2015-19).

Denver beat Minnesota in game one when Minnesota seemed more focus on acting tough than playing smart, physical basketball, but Minnesota won four of the next five games. Rudy Gobert was the key player in this series, and his impact went far beyond his individual numbers (7.7 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg) because he anchored Minnesota's defense while holding Nikola Jokic to .446 field goal shooting, his worst field goal percentage in 17 career playoff series and significantly worse than his .520 career playoff field goal percentage. Jokic still led both teams in scoring (25.8 ppg), rebounding (13.2 rpg), and assists (9.5 apg), but he also had a series-high 23 turnovers (seven more than any other player). Gobert's elite defense is the main reason that Jokic shot so poorly and turned the ball over so frequently. Gobert also had a series-high 22 offensive rebounds as the Timberwolves gathered 72 offensive rebounds while holding the Nuggets to 42 offensive rebounds.

Gobert has received a lot of unwarranted criticism from uninformed media members, jealous/uninformed players, and uninformed social media content creators but the documented reality is that for quite some time Minnesota's defense has been significantly better with him on the court than it is with him off of the court. 

Julius Randle ranked second on the team in scoring (19.2 ppg), second in rebounding (7.3 rpg), and first in assists (4.2 apg). Jaden McDaniels averaged 17.8 ppg--including a game-high 32 points in game six--and he hounded Jamal Murray into .357 field goal shooting. McDaniels snared 17 offensive rebounds, trailing only Gobert and leading every Nugget by at least eight.

The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets despite losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to injuries. Ayo Dosunmu filled the gap, leading Minnesota with 21.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting--including a playoff career-high 43 points in Minnesota's 112-96 game four win--but he scored just 18 points in Minnesota's game five loss before missing game six due to recurring right calf soreness.  

Edwards has a bone bruise in his left knee and even if he is able to return to action during this series he will likely be limited, particularly considering that he was already battling right knee soreness before he injured his left knee. DiVincenzo ruptured his right Achilles tendon during game four versus Denver and will miss the rest of the playoffs plus most if not all of the 2026-27 regular season. 

San Antonio will win because...the Spurs are dominant defensively, and will pose problems that Minnesota's offense cannot solve sans Edwards and DiVincenzo. Through the games played on April 30, the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in points allowed (100.0 ppg), first in defensive field goal percentage (.403), and second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg) after dominating the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 in the first round. Victor Wembanyama leads the playoffs in blocked shots (4.0 bpg) as the anchor and paint protector for the Spurs' suffocating defense. 

During the regular season, the Spurs played at an elite level at both ends of the court, ranking second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. They maintained those high standards in the first round; in addition to the numbers mentioned above, they rank fifth in playoff rebounding (44.4 rpg), third in scoring (112.8 ppg), second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg), and fourth in field goal percentage (.484). 

In addition to his shot blocking prowess, Wembanyama averaged 21.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, and 1.0 spg in the first round. His shooting splits were tremendous: .583/.538/.913. Wembanyama played in four games, missing San Antonio's 120-108 game three win because he was in the concussion protocol after banging his head on the floor in game two. His averages are deflated because he only played 11 minutes in game two, finishing with five points and four rebounds in San Antonio's only loss, a 106-103 setback. 

De'Aaron Fox ranked second on the team in scoring versus Portland (20.2 ppg) while leading the Spurs in assists (6.8 apg). Stephon Castle averaged 19.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg. Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle are a three-headed monster with each player averaging around 20 ppg in the playoffs while being capable of erupting for at least 30 points in any given game.

Other things to consider: The Spurs' only weakness is that--other than Fox and Luke Kornet--the top eight players in their playoff rotation lack significant postseason experience, so it will be interesting to see if the battle-tested Timberwolves are able to exploit this. The Timberwolves showed admirable physicality, resilience, and toughness versus the Nuggets. McDaniels publicly called out the Nuggets for being weak defensively, and he and his teammates backed up his big words with bold actions on the court. It is a bit surprising that the Nuggets could not take advantage of Minnesota's depleted roster to at least force a game seven in Denver, but the young and energetic Spurs can threaten the Timberwolves in ways that the Nuggets did not: the Spurs will push the ball, they will not be as bothered by the Timberwolves' long and rangy perimeter defensive players, and their depth will prove daunting for the shorthanded Timberwolves.

San Antonio will defeat Minnesota in six games.

Labels: Ayo Dosunmu, De'Aaron Fox, Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:12 PM

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Raptors Mount Late Comeback, Tie Series With Cavaliers 2-2

The Cleveland Cavaliers built a nine point second quarter lead and were ahead 84-76 with 4:30 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Toronto Raptors rallied to win 93-89 and tie this first round series 2-2. The Raptors shot just 31-97 (.320) from the field but the Cavaliers shot almost as poorly (32-87, .368) while getting outrebounded 59-56 and losing the turnover battle 17-11. The Raptors compensated for their abysmal three point field goal shooting (4-30, .133) by outscoring the Cavaliers 50-38 in the paint while also topping the Cavaliers in second chance points 19-7 and fast break points 15-10.

Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram each scored a game-high 23 points to lead the Raptors, while R.J. Barrett added 18 points and Collin Murray-Boyles contributed 15 points plus a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench. Barnes--who has been the best player in the series (series-high 25.8 ppg, series-high 7.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.0 spg, .523 FG%)--had an excellent floor game with nine rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, and one steal.

Donovan Mitchell paced the Cavaliers with 20 points, but he shot 6-24 from the field. James Harden had 19 points and a team-high eight assists, but he had a game-high seven turnovers, three more than any other player.

The Raptors deserve full credit for playing hard and figuring out how to win a must-win game, but the big picture focus should be on the Cavaliers, who have been widely touted as a championship contender since acquiring Harden.   

The first half featured some mind-numbingly bad, unwatchable basketball as Toronto scored 38 points on 15-54 (.278) field goal shooting while Cleveland managed only 36 points on 15-45 (.333) field goal shooting. If you enjoy watching high volume, low accuracy three point shooting then the first half was heaven for you as the teams combined to shoot 7-39 (.179) from beyond the arc. ESPN's Ernie Johnson referenced the old movie "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight" to open the halftime show. There is no truth to the rumor that during halftime the NBA's Board of Governors and the league's broadcast partners tried to enact a rules change stipulating that not only would the second half not be played but that both teams would be summarily eliminated from the playoffs.   

I love good defense, but this game was more about teams being unable to make three pointers and being unwilling to try two pointers then it was about good defense. 

During the third quarter, the teams stumbled to a 22-22 tie while combining to shoot 1-18 (.056) from three point range, which meant that the Raptors clung to a 60-58 lead heading into a fourth quarter that would determine whether the Raptors would tie the series 2-2 or fall into a 3-1 hole that is usually fatal. After Mitchell hit two free throws at the 4:55 mark, the Cavaliers led 84-76 as this rock fight disguised as a basketball game lurched toward its conclusion, but the Raptors closed the game with a 17-5 run to stay alive as the series shifts back to Cleveland for game five on Wednesday.

Shockingly, both teams shot well in the final stanza, with Toronto shooting 11-22 (.500) from the field and Cleveland nearly matching that with 10-21 (.476) field goal shooting. What stood out and made the difference is that Harden and Mitchell combined to dominate the ball while shooting terribly. Mitchell scored 12 points but shot just 3-9 from the field, including an ill-advised off balance missed three pointer with 10 seconds remaining and the Raptors leading 90-87; the Cavaliers had enough time to quickly score a two pointer and then foul to get the ball back. The scariest thing for the Cavaliers is that "Playoff Harden" mode seemed to be activated in this game: he shot 1-4 from the field in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, and he tallied yet another "Harden" in a playoff game by having more turnovers (seven) than field goals made (six). What is most disturbing for the Cavaliers is not only the careless nature of many of Harden's turnovers but the lackadaisical way that he failed to get back on defense after committing those turnovers. In a low scoring game, such plays are huge.

Plus/minus can be noisy in small sample sizes, and this game is a great example of such noise. If you watched the whole game with understanding, then you noticed that Harden and Mitchell co-authored the defeat due to Harden's reckless ballhandling and terrible transition defense combined with Mitchell's poor shooting and questionable shot selection. Mitchell's -8 plus/minus number reflects how he played, but Harden's +1 plus/minus number is surprising, so I dug into that to try to figure out what happened. Harden played 7:53 in the third quarter, and he somehow had a +10 plus/minus number as the teams battled to a 22-22 tie, which means his plus/minus number for the rest of the game was -9. Harden played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter, posting a -2 plus/minus number.  

Harden's overall series numbers are solid (21.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 3.3 rpg, .475 FG%) except for his alarming 24 turnovers (6.0 tpg), 10 more than any other player on either team. Harden has posted a "Harden" in each of the last two playoff games in this series (he had a game-high eight turnovers and five field goals made in Cleveland's 126-104 game three loss). He has logged a "Harden" four times in his last 13 playoff games, and that does not include hiswn 2-8 field goal shooting with two turnovers as the Denver Nuggets routed his L.A. Clippers 120-101 in game seven last year.

The Cavaliers are purported to be a championship contender this season, while the young Raptors are rising but are not a championship contender. The Cavaliers should win the next two games to close out the series in six games (which was my prediction in my playoff preview), but when the supposedly superior team gives away a winnable game and drags out a series anything can happen--an injury, a suspension, a fluky shot. The Cavaliers will likely not get the full "Playoff Harden" experience until the second round, but games three and four of this series provided a preview of what that will look like.

Labels: Brandon Ingram, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 12:02 PM

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Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs

The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series. 

Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series. 

The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.

Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.

In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.

Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.

Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly. 

The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures. 

Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.

In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.

The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.

Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead. 

This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.

The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM

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2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.

Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.

After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time). 

The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player. 

The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series. 

Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season): 

There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%. 

The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.

Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.

This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).

Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama. 

It is unfortunate that media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.

There has been a lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses. 

The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.

This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.

Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.

I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.

Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.

Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates. 

Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.

A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?

Here are my first round predictions:

Read more »

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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76ers Make Magic Disappear, Chef Curry Cooks Clippers

The opener on the second night of NBA Play-In Tournament action featured two Eastern Conference teams that both did not meet expectations this season battling to secure the seventh seed. The shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers outlasted the offensively challenged Orlando Magic, 109-97. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 31 points and six assists. Kelly Oubre Jr. added 19 points while shooting 5-10 from three point range, significant perimeter production considering that the Magic shot just 7-27 (.259) from beyond the arc. VJ Edgecombe contributed 19 points plus a game-high tying 11 rebounds as the 76ers held their own on the glass (only losing the rebound battle 41-40) despite being without the services of Joel Embiid, who is recovering from an appendectomy. Andre Drummond filled part of the void in the middle with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a team-high tying three blocked shots off of the bench. Paul George had 16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and five assists.

Desmond Bane scored a game-high 34 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he did not have much help. Paolo Banchero, who is supposed to be Orlando's franchise player, scored 18 points on 7-22 field goal shooting while committing a game-high six turnovers. Anthony Black had a solid game off of the bench (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting), but Franz Wagner did not do nearly enough (12 points on 5-11 field goal shooting), and Jalen Suggs (four points on 1-9 field goal shooting) misfired from all angles. It felt like anyone sitting courtside should wear a safety helmet to protect against Orlando's barrage of wildly missed shots, as the Magic shot 33-81 (.407) from the field. The first quarter set the tone for the entire game, with the 76ers leading 28-24 after the first 12 minutes despite shooting just 10-25 (.400) from the field; the Magic shot 9-24 (.375) from the field. If you watched the game, you know that the quality of play did not improve--and if you did not watch the game you are probably not yearning for a detailed account of all of the missed shots. In TV parlance, if this were part of a highlight package it would be "score only."

Who would be silly enough to pick this lethargic, flawed Magic team to win a road game versus the 76ers? Oh, that would be me. In my defense, it's not like the 76ers are particularly impressive; they did not build a double digit lead against the Orlando Magical Bricklayers until the third quarter, so it will be interesting to see how the 76ers fare in a first round matchup versus the surprisingly good Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, the Magic have one last chance to make the playoffs if they beat Charlotte on Friday, but the Magic are not likely to find much success when confronted by Charlotte's size, stingy defense, and three point shooting. I still feel good about picking Charlotte to capture the eighth seed.

In the nightcap, Stephen Curry turned into the superhero known as Chef Curry and he cooked the L.A. Clippers with a game-high 35 points as his Golden State Warriors rallied from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to post a 126-121 win. The Clippers, who started the season 6-21 before rallying to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, are now eliminated from playoff contention, while the Warriors must beat the Phoenix Suns on Friday night to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed. Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos scored 20 points each for the Warriors. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 23 points.

The Clippers jumped out to a 12-2 lead versus the Warriors, the only Play-In Tournament team with a losing record this season. The Warriors had lost nine games in a row to the Clippers in L.A. and seemed to be well on their way to a 10th setback--but then they authored their own 12-2 run to tie the score at 14 and that set the tone for the rest of the game: the Clippers repeatedly built double digit leads to seemingly take command before collapsing and letting the Warriors back in the game. The collapses largely correlated with Kawhi Leonard not being in the game: Leonard, who finished with 21 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, was the only Clippers' starter with a positive plus/minus number (+6); every other Clippers' starter had a plus/minus number of -7 or worse. The first half ended with Leonard driving coast to coast through Golden State's entire team as if they were a bunch of elementary school kids, culminating in a two-handed dunk, after which Leonard shook his head as if to say, "You've to be kidding me if you think that is enough to even slow me down." The Clippers led 61-53 at halftime.

Curry put on a vintage show in the third quarter, erupting for 16 points on 6-8 field goal shooting to single-handedly keep the Warriors in the game, but after Mathurin's two free throws pushed the Clippers' lead to 98-85 at the 9:53 mark of the fourth quarter the Warriors seemed to be running out of time and energy until Curry saved the day, along with timely 4-4 three point shooting from Al Horford and suffocating defense on Leonard by Draymond Green. Curry scored 11 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting while posting a +15 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and the 39 year old Horford scored 12 of his 14 points in the fourth quarter. Green authored his typical "triple single" (seven points, team-high nine assists, six rebounds), had a 0 plus/minus number, and did not score in the fourth quarter, but he stole the ball from Leonard twice in the closing moments, and played a major role in holding Leonard scoreless in the fourth quarter until Leonard had a meaningless dunk with 16.9 seconds remaining.

L.A. coach Ty Lue was disgusted after the game (though he used a different phrase when asked to describe his feelings), lamenting "We had the game in our hands" but gave it away by making numerous "silly plays." Not surprisingly, Golden State coach Steve Kerr was thrilled with the result, and he thanked NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for creating the Play-In Tournament, noting that otherwise the Warriors' season would already be over--and that raises an interesting point, albeit not the point that Kerr wanted to make: over the course of the 82 game regular season, the Clippers won five more games than the Warriors, but because Curry and Horford got hot in the fourth quarter of one game the Clippers are eliminated while the Warriors have a chance to make the playoffs. Phoenix finished eight games ahead of Golden State during the regular season, but the Warriors can wipe out months of work by beating the Suns just once. 

This format may work out great for Kerr, his team, and his team's fans this season, but the message that this sends is that the regular season does not matter--and this message, conveyed by the league office, team executives, and the players themselves in many ways during recent years, is how we have ended up with tanking, load management, and a league whose regular season is becoming increasingly unwatchable. Instead of the NBA having a great regular season, the NBA produces a mediocre regular season and hopes that some excitement in the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs will be enough to satisfy the fans who pay high ticket prices and streaming fees.

Labels: Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Philadelphia 76ers, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 10:44 AM

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