Grit and Poise: Thunder Outlast Pacers to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage
The Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder 86-76 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of game four of the NBA Finals, but the Thunder outscored the Pacers 35-18 the rest of the way--including 12-1 in the final 3:20--to win 111-104 and reclaim homecourt advantage. The series shifts back to Oklahoma City on Monday night tied 2-2 after the Pacers led 1-0 and 2-1. This was the Thunder's second lowest scoring total in a win in the
2025 playoffs; they lost five of their previous six playoff games when
they scored less than 112 points, but they are 12-1 in the 2025 playoffs
when they score at least 112 points. The Thunder improved to 5-0 following a loss in 2025 playoffs.
The Thunder cruised through most of the 2024-25 regular season and went
12-4 in their first 16 playoff games, but beating the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals has been a
tough challenge for the Thunder, who displayed a lot of grit and poise
to come from behind to win on the road versus a team that has thrived in games that are close late in the fourth quarter.
The Thunder prevailed by outscoring the Pacers 50-36 in the paint after being outscored 50-48 in the paint in their game three loss. The Thunder also outrebounded the Pacers 43-33 while holding the Pacers to 34-80 (.425) field goal shooting. We are often told that range shooting and spreading the floor are essential for teams to be successful in today's NBA, but the Thunder won despite shooting just 3-17 (.176) from three point range because size matters in the NBA, and because controlling the paint is a major factor for a championship contender.
The biggest change that Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault made--literally and figuratively--was reinserting Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup after replacing him with Cason Wallace in the first three games of this series. The move back to Hartenstein may not have seemed to help the Thunder when the Pacers jumped out to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but going back to the lineup and player rotation that enabled the Thunder to be a dominant team during the regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs paid dividends as the Thunder wore down the Pacers the rest of the way. Wallace's minutes have decreased from 33 in game one to 23 in game two, 24 in game three, and 19 in game four. Hartenstein's minutes have been fairly consistent--17, 22, 18, 21--but the Thunder won the two games when he played at least 20 minutes and lost the two games when he played less than 20 minutes. Daigneault tried to be clever by changing his starting lineup for the first three games and that move backfired, but he deserves credit for recognizing his mistake before it was too late to salvage this series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 35 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting, including 15 fourth quarter points. He had no assists, but sometimes the most effective way for a team's best player to impact winning is to accept the burden of scoring even when the defense is tilted against him. Instead of insisting on making the "right" play, Gilgeous-Alexander made winning plays by putting the ball in the basket when the game was up for grabs. He has scored 131 points in this series so far, the third most points scored by a player in the first four NBA Finals games of his career, trailing only Rick Barry (165) and Allen Iverson (141). Jalen Williams often initiated the offense while Gilgeous-Alexander played off of the ball, and Williams finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Alex Caruso contributed 20 points and a game-high tying five steals in 30 minutes off of the bench. Chet Holmgren powered his thin frame to 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and a game-high tying five steals while also grabbing eight rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field. Nine Pacers played in this game, and Siakam was one of just three with a positive plus/minus number (+7, best on the Pacers). Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had a game-high seven assists but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Obi Toppin scored 17 points and snared seven rebounds in 29 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -15 plus/minus number.
The Thunder became accustomed to easy, pretty wins during their dream regular season and for two of the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the NBA Finals have been a series of battles that are testing--and forging--the championship mettle of both teams. If the Thunder keep Hartenstein in the starting lineup, don't make any silly rotation changes, and use their size to dominate the paint then they have a great chance to prevail in game five to move to within one win of an NBA title.
Labels: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Obi Toppin, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM
Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead
The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs.
Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.
The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes.
Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.
The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because
they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that
is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57
regular season games that he played this season before starting each of
the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53
regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the
16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the
bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the
Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the
"advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly,
screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage.
The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).
This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.
The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.
The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.
Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM
Never Too Late: Haliburton's Last Second Game Winner Stuns Thunder, Lifts Pacers to 1-0 NBA Finals Lead
The Indiana Pacers did not enjoy the lead once in the first 47:59.7 of game one of the NBA Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder--but they very much enjoyed having the lead for the final :00.3 after Tyrese Haliburton drained the game-winning jump shot in a stunning 111-110 victory. This is the fifth time in the 2025 playoffs that the Pacers won after trailing by at least 15 points, and they have accomplished that feat at least once in each of their four playoff series versus Milwaukee, Cleveland (twice), New York, and now Oklahoma City. The Pacers trailed 94-79 at the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter versus the Thunder, and were still behind 108-99 with 2:52 left in the fourth quarter, but they kept chipping away until Haliburton delivered the dagger after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a shot with 11 seconds remaining that could have given the Thunder a three point cushion.
Six Pacers scored in double figures, including all five starters. The 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam had a team-high 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds. Obi Toppin added 17 points off of the bench, and Myles Turner contributed 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots. Haliburton had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. Andrew Nembhard scored 14 points while dishing for a game-high tying six assists. Aaron Nesmith made his presence felt with 10 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a game-high 38 points on 14-30 field goal shooting in his first career NBA Finals game. The moment seemed a little big for Jalen Williams, who finished with 17 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. The Thunder forced 25 turnovers and had 14 steals, but they scored just 11 points off of those extra possessions; the Pacers deserve credit for not just giving up after they turned the ball over, but the Thunder also missed a lot of high quality shots from all over the court.
Even though the Thunder led most of the way, they failed to deliver the killer third quarter blow that is their trademark. Why was this game different? The answer, as is often the case in an NBA game, is found not in the third quarter or even in the fourth quarter, but rather in the first quarter. The Thunder went 12-4 during the 2025 playoffs with a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they went 2-0 versus the Pacers in the regular season with that starting lineup--but Coach Mark Daigneault replaced Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup for game one. Wallace finished with six points on 3-9 field goal shooting in 33 minutes, posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, while Hartenstein had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds in 17 minutes while notching a +2 plus/minus number. Sometimes the best "adjustment" is to not overthink things but to just stay the course and show confidence that your team's league-leading record is not a fluke; it will be interesting to see if Daigneault concedes his error and reinstates Hartenstein in the starting lineup for game two, or if he doubles down by keeping Wallace in the starting lineup.
The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 56-39, and the Thunder shot just 39-98 (.398) from the field, so it is evident that going small and changing the rotation backfired in multiple ways: Wallace was not productive as a starter, limiting Hartenstein's minutes hurt the Thunder on the glass, and the Thunder were much less efficient than usual offensively. Players are creatures of habit, so changing the starting lineup can have a downstream effect on the entire roster--not to mention that the favorite team should not show any sign of weakness, including suggesting that their starting lineup is not good enough to beat the opposing team's starting lineup. Daigneault's questionable move is reminiscent of how Avery Johnson outcoached himself 18 years ago in the first round of the 2007 playoffs; the 42-40 Golden State Warriors upset Johnson's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks after the Mavericks changed their starting lineup prior to game one, going small to match up with Golden State's small lineup. The Warriors won game one, and later won the series 4-2.
This game's ending provided an example of Rick Carlisle's evolution as a coach; he has always been a smart and strategic coach, but in his early years he could be inflexible and he tended to micromanage game situations; young Carlisle would probably have called a timeout after Nembhard's defensive rebound with 6.9 seconds remaining, but veteran Carlisle trusted his team to play out the final seconds, and they rewarded his trust by getting the ball to Haliburton, who coolly delivered the dagger.
The series is not over, and momentum does not carry over to the next game, but game one winners go on to take the series more than 77% of the time so the Pacers are in command of this series unless the Thunder not only tie the series but also win a game in Indiana.
Labels: Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM
