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Monday, June 23, 2025

Thunder Outlast Pacers to Win Game Seven, 103-91

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Indiana Pacers 56-43 in the second half, transforming a one point halftime deficit into a 103-91 game seven win to capture the NBA championship. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 45-40 and shot slightly more efficiently from the field, but the Thunder attacked Pacers' ballhandlers on the perimeter and took advantage of extra possessions by scoring in the paint; the Thunder forced 23 turnovers that they converted into 32 points while committing just eight turnovers that the Pacers converted into 10 points, and the Thunder outscored the Pacers in the paint, 40-26.

As is often the case in game seven showdowns, two high octane offenses struggled to score efficiently. The Thunder averaged 120.5 ppg in the regular season while posting a 68-14 record with the best point differential in NBA history (12.9 ppg), but in game seven they barely cracked the 100 point barrier while shooting 35-87 (.402) from the field, including 11-40 (.275) from three point range; the Pacers averaged 117.4 ppg in the regular season while ranking third in field goal percentage (.488), but in game seven they fell well short of 100 points while shooting 29-70 (.414) from the field, including 11-28 (.393) from beyond the arc. 

Three point shooting is supposed to be of paramount importance in today's NBA, but the Thunder took the title despite shooting 71-206 (.345) from three point range in the NBA Finals. Defense, rebounding, and paint presence are often the most important factors in game seven, which is why the 1998 Chicago Bulls beat the Indiana Pacers in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals despite Michael Jordan shooting 9-25 from the field and why the 2010 L.A. Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals despite Kobe Bryant shooting 6-24 from the field. A team that defends well and plays hard can survive a poor individual shooting performance by a star.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points, dished for a game-high/playoff career-high 12 assists, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots, and had just one turnover. He shot 8-27 from the field, but his scoring and playmaking accounted for more than half of the Thunder's points. By continuing to shoot even though his field goal percentage was not great, Gilgeous-Alexander put pressure on the Pacers' defense; the worst thing for a team in a big game is not when the team's star shoots 8-27, but rather when he shoots 4-14, because a passive star player is much easier to guard than an active star player: when a star player aggressively attacks the defense that forces the defense to react by sending help, which opens up scoring opportunities and offensive rebounding opportunities for the star's teammates, secondary but important effects that are not tracked well or even understood by many "stat gurus" who focus on what they define as "efficiency" without giving sufficient consideration to other factors. 

During the NBA Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, and 1.6 bpg with shooting splits of .443/.242/.914, earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP and becoming the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000). He is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000).

Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (7-20), but he made critical contributions with 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and just one turnover. He had a game-best +13 plus/minus number. Chet Holmgren anchored the defense in the paint, setting an NBA Finals game seven record with five blocked shots while also scoring 18 points on 6-8 field goal shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder improved to 3-1 in this series with Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup; he had seven points, a team-high nine rebounds, and four assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Hartenstein were the only three Thunder players who had an assist. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each scored 10 points off of the bench.

The biggest story for the Pacers was that Tyrese Haliburton, the team's primary playmaker and clutch shot maker, fell to the court with a non-contact lower right leg injury at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter and was unable to play the rest of the way. He had already scored nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting, and even though the Thunder led 18-16 when Haliburton left the game it is fair to wonder how the game might have proceeded if Haliburton had stayed healthy. Haliburton's injury not only impacted game seven and this series but it could have implications for the balance of power in the Eastern Conference if he misses most or all of next season.

Bennedict Mathurin stepped up in Haliburton's absence, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds in 33 minutes off of the bench. Pascal Siakam added 16 points but shot just 5-13 from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 16 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers; he scored 12 points on 6-7 field goal shooting in eight minutes in the third quarter, but had just four points on 2-6 field goal shooting in his other 20 minutes of action, which highlights a point that I made in my game five recap: just because a bench player has a brief productive stretch that does not mean that if his playing time is extended he will continue to score at that same per minute rate; there are reasons that bench players are bench players and starters are starters, including conditioning, and ability to match up with various players/defensive schemes.

The Pacers took an 11-6 lead to start the game in a closely contested first quarter featuring three lead changes and four ties with neither team leading by more than five points. After Haliburton's injury, the Pacers seemed to be inspired while the Thunder seemed to be complacent and tentative. The Pacers outscored the Thunder 26-22 in the second quarter to build a slim 48-47 halftime edge as the Thunder shot 4-18 (.222) from three point range in the first half.

In the third quarter, the Thunder ramped up the defensive pressure--forcing eight turnovers that they converted into 18 points--while not committing a single turnover, and shooting a respectable 5-13 (.385) from beyond the arc. The Pacers were still behind by just four points, 70-66, at the 3:54 mark of the third quarter, but the Thunder closed that stanza with an 11-2 run to enter the fourth quarter with an 81-68 lead. McConnell scored the Pacers' final 12 third quarter points, but down the stretch in the third quarter it became evident that the Pacers could not deal with the Thunder's defensive pressure.  

The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before the Pacers made one final push to slash the margin to 96-86 with 2:16 remaining, but the Thunder went on a 6-1 burst to remove any doubt; the Pacers may be the comeback kings, but the Thunder are a historically dominant team, particularly at home: the Thunder set a single season playoff record with a +259 point differential at home, and their only two home playoff losses--game one of the NBA Finals versus Indiana, and game one in the second round versus Denver--were on buzzer beaters. With this win, the Thunder improved to 19-2 after a loss (regular season and playoffs combined), the best such single season mark in NBA history.

The Thunder went 84-21 overall during the regular season and playoffs combined, tied with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (84-17) for the third most wins all-time, trailing only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, but lost in the NBA Finals), and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13). It should be noted that the NBA expanded the playoff format in 1983-84 (adding a best of five first round series to the three existing best of seven series) and in 2002-03 (extending the first round from best of five to best of seven), so before those years teams did not have the same opportunities to win 84-plus games. The Thunder are the second youngest team to win an NBA title, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers--a squad that provides a cautionary tale, as they never returned to the NBA Finals after injuries ended Bill Walton's brief tenure as the sport's best player. On paper, it looks like the Thunder are well positioned to contend for championships for the next several years, but in practice it is very difficult for a team to win multiple titles; there have been just four repeat champions since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls notched a pair of three-peats in the 1990s: the 2000-02 L.A. Lakers, the 2009-10 L.A. Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 AM

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Thursday, June 12, 2025

Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs. 

Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.

The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. 

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.

The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57 regular season games that he played this season before starting each of the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53 regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the 16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the "advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly, screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."    

Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage. 

The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).

This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.

The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.

The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM

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