Initial Impressions of the New Look Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers just traded away half of their active roster and the final verdict on such a massive makeover cannot be rendered until after the 2018 playoffs--and, perhaps not until LeBron James decides to stay or go.
After the dust cleared, the Cavaliers acquired George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr. in
exchange for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Channing Frye, Dwyane Wade,
Iman Shumpert, Derrick Rose, and their own 2018 first-round pick.
Here are some bullet point, quick-hitting impressions regarding the Cavaliers' moves:
1) Turning the clock back just a bit, essentially the Cavaliers gave up Kyrie Irving--an All-NBA First Team level player who is a dark horse MVP candidate this season--for Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Brooklyn's 2018 unprotected first round draft pick. To recap, last summer the Cavaliers sent Irving to Boston and the primary assets they received back were Isaiah Thomas and the Brooklyn pick. This week, the Cavaliers dealt Thomas (and other considerations) to the L.A. Lakers for Clarkson and Nance, so the Cavaliers' net gain from all of this is the pick, Clarkson and Nance.
Looked at purely from that perspective, the Cavaliers seriously decreased their chances to win a championship in the near future compared to their chances when Irving was on the roster--and the near future is all that matters if James leaves, because a Cleveland team without James will have to rebuild (as all teams that lose James would have to do, because James designs the roster to be completely dependent on him). Perhaps the Cavaliers sans James can build something with that draft pick plus Clarkson, Nance and a few other pieces--but whatever that something is, it most assuredly is not a championship team.
2) Clearly, the Thomas gamble backfired. He appears to be laboring physically and it is obvious that he decided he did not want to stay in Cleveland; publicly questioning the coach's ability to make adjustments is about the surest way possible to obtain a one way ticket out of town.
3) Cleveland's chemistry was terrible so far this season. By implication if not by explicit statement, some or all of the departed players are being blamed for that bad chemistry. Will the newly arrived players be excited to play alongside James or will they be focused primarily on what their fates will be if James decides to leave? In other words, is this group committed as a whole to doing everything necessary to win a championship or is everyone trying to find a way off of a potentially sinking ship that has the shadow of a fleeing James hanging over it?
4) The player who can contribute the most toward making these moves successful is none other than LeBron James. If James is happy with the new roster and thus decides to play hard on a consistent basis then the Cavaliers have enough talent, depth and versatility to win the Eastern Conference and have a puncher's chance in the NBA Finals against the Western Conference champion. If James is not happy with the new roster, then his track record demonstrates that he will quit, his teammates will follow suit and then he will leave for what he perceives to be greener pastures. Just to be clear, this team is not better than last year's team that had Kyrie Irving but this team does have the potential to win a championship if James plays hard and other factors fall into place.
Labels: Channing Frye, Cleveland Cavaliers, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, George Hill, Iman Shumpert, Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving, Larry Nance Jr, LeBron James, Rodney Hood
posted by David Friedman @ 6:08 PM
Golden State Versus Utah Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Golden State (67-15) vs. #5 Utah (51-33)
Season series: Golden State, 2-1
Utah can win if…Rudy Gobert controls the paint defensively, Gordon Hayward/George Hill/Joe Johnson provide timely scoring/playmaking and if the Jazz slow down the pace of the game.
The Jazz are a tough-minded, defensive-oriented squad that plays at the slowest pace of any NBA team. They imposed that pace and their will in the first round, winning on the road in game seven to eliminate the L.A. Clippers, 4-3. That seventh game may be the last time we see the current incarnation of the Clippers on the court together, so now is a good time to say a few words about the Clippers before turning our attention fully to Warriors versus Jazz.
Jazz-Clippers is the only first round series that I predicted incorrectly--and I may have gone 8 for 8 if Blake Griffin had stayed healthy, though any pick involving the Clippers should factor in injuries as as part of the equation.
The big question about the Clippers is whether the team will be "blown up," "shaken up" or largely left intact. Some of those choices will be made by management and some of those choices will be made by players who are free agents. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both have player options for the 2017-18 season. Griffin is the team's best player but it is questionable if he has the necessary mental toughness and physical durability to lead a team to a title. Paul has been one of the top point guards in the NBA for about a decade but he is small and because of that in the playoffs he wears down in general and/or is just overpowered by bigger players. He is often praised as a great leader but it is reasonable to question that assertion based on the fact that--despite playing for some very talented teams--he has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs.
Game seven versus Utah was a microcosm of these larger concerns: Paul shot 4-7 from the field in the first quarter and 2-12 from the field the rest of the way. If Paul is going to be lauded as a leader, then let's note that he has "led" the Clippers to blown advantages in five straight playoff years, an all-time NBA record: the Clippers squandered advantages of 2-1 versus Utah (2017), 2-0 versus Portland (2016), 3-1 versus Houston (2015), 1-0 versus Oklahoma City (2014) and 2-0 versus Memphis (2013). The Clippers were the higher seeded team in three of those five series.
Of course, injuries played a role in some of those debacles but that just brings us back to the main question: are Paul and Griffin tough enough mentally and physically to lead a team to a title?
If that question is answered affirmatively, then the Clippers just need a "shake up" to add some more scoring punch at small forward. Otherwise, "blowing it up" may be the best option--but the one problem with that is winning 50-plus games but losing in the playoffs may end up looking like the good old days if the Clippers mess up the rebuilding process and end up once again as annual participants in the Draft Lottery.
The bottom line is that Paul and Griffin are flawed stars who are not elite players but they also will not be so easy to replace.
With Griffin sidelined by injury and Paul apparently worn down by the rigors of a seven game series, Hayward/Hill/Johnson made all of the plays as Utah achieved an NBA rarity by winning on the road in game seven. Hayward is emerging as an All-NBA caliber player, Hill has always been a solid two-way threat and Johnson--who was rightly mentioned by the broadcasters during this series as a credible Hall of Fame candidate--showed why he dislikes his "Iso Joe" nickname: Johnson not only can score from anywhere on the floor but he is also a crafty playmaker who can deliver a variety of passes on time and on target.
Utah has a lot of young talent and is a team on the rise--but, barring injury, it is almost inconceivable that the Jazz will beat the Warriors in a seven game series.
Golden State will win because…the Warriors have too much offensive firepower and--unlike many previous offensive juggernauts--they are also very strong defensively.
This season revealed two paradoxical truths: (1) Kevin Durant is the best player on this team and (2) this team is so talented that it can sustain success for an extended period of time even if he is not in the lineup. When Durant has been fully healthy, the offense has run through him--even two-time reigning regular season MVP Stephen Curry clearly deferred to Durant--and Durant has also been a force defensively both on the perimeter and also as a rim protector. When Durant has been sidelined or limited, the Warriors shifted to a Curry-centric attack and hardly missed a beat. If Klay Thompson is perhaps not quite as good as he has been in previous seasons he is still nevertheless one of the league's best two-way players. Draymond Green is a defensive force who is also a triple double threat.
This season, the Warriors ranked first in scoring (115.9 ppg), first in FG% (.495), first in DFG% (.435) and seventh in rebounding. In theory, the Warriors lack rim protection and depth but is any team strong enough across the board to meaningfully exploit those weaknesses? The Spurs possibly could challenge the Warriors but this edition of the Spurs just seems to lack some kind of edge or focus that San Antonio's championship teams had. The Cavaliers have enough talent to beat the Warriors but after mailing in the second half of the season can they regain peak form in time to not only avoid being upset but to also defeat one of the greatest teams of all-time?
Those questions will be answered within the next couple months but it is exceedingly unlikely that the Jazz will get in the way of Golden State's seemingly inevitable march toward San Antonio and Cleveland.
Other things to consider: The Warriors are in the midst of the best three year regular season run in pro basketball history, posting 207 wins--including a record 73 wins last season, bookended by a pair of 67 win seasons. If the Warriors win the 2017 title to claim two championships in three seasons then they will rank among the great dynasties--or mini-dynasties, if you prefer--in pro basketball history. Of course, the thin line between how success and failure are defined means that if the Warriors do not win the 2017 title then they will probably be viewed as flawed underachievers who did not fully maximize their potential.
Before the storyline is set in stone--two-time champs or regular season powerhouse that "only" won one title--it is worth comparing the Warriors to some of the NBA's previous dynasties and great champions. Clearly, the Warriors are not close to matching Bill Russell's Celtics, who claimed eight straight championships and 11 in 13 years. I would still take the '67 76ers and '72 Lakers over any one of the Warriors' past three teams but it is also clear that the Warriors have sustained high level play for multiple seasons in a way that the 76ers and Lakers of that era did not. The '82 Lakers are one of the most underrated championship teams of all-time and I would take the '83 Sixers over any other single season team in pro basketball history. The '84-'86 Celtics and '87-'89 Lakers could match these Warriors star for star and I would take the best player on either of those squads over Durant (or Curry, if you are inclined to believe that he is still the Warriors' best player).
Fans under 35 may scoff but I would absolutely take either Bulls' three-peat squad over the current Warriors' team. I would also take the Shaq-Kobe Lakers--or at least for sure the edition that went 15-1 in the playoffs, a team that could go blow for blow even with the '83 Sixers or Jordan-Pippen Bulls.
What about the Bryant-Gasol Lakers, the various Spurs championship teams and the Big Three Heat? I don't think that the Bryant-Gasol Lakers had quite enough depth or talent to beat these Warriors. The first and last Spurs championship teams could possibly beat the Warriors--with inside power and spread the floor brilliance, respectively--but I am not sure about the three San Antonio title teams in between. The Big Three Heat's fate always depended on which LeBron James showed up. James beat the Warriors last year with Irving and Love, so he would at least have a chance of winning with Wade and Bosh.
The point is that the Warriors are in the midst of an incredible run but I do not necessarily buy the premise that they are the greatest team of all-time, even if they win the title this year. There is a lamentable recency bias that presumes that the best now must be the best of all-time.
Labels: Draymond Green, George Hill, Golden State Warriors, Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 8:38 PM
Miami Versus Indiana Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#1 Miami (66-16) vs. #3 Indiana (49-32)
Season series: Indiana, 2-1
Indiana can win if...the
Pacers can slow the game down and pound the ball inside to David West and Roy Hibbert. All-Star Paul George has an opportunity to elevate his status and be considered an All-NBA caliber player if he can hold MVP LeBron James below his season averages while also making a contribution offensively. James averaged 24.5 ppg on .627 field goal shooting versus Milwaukee in the first round but Chicago's bump and run defense held James to 23.6 ppg on .438 field goal shooting; Indiana defended James as well as any other team during the regular season and that trend must continue for the Pacers to win this series. Point guard George Hill, who missed one game in the New York series because of a concussion, must continue to play at a high level at both ends of the court.
Miami will win because...LeBron James has been playing at an incredible level--even by his lofty standards--since his
40 point, 18 rebound, nine assist performance versus Indiana in game four of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals. In order to beat Miami, Indiana has to slow James down without committing so many defenders to him that the Heat's three point shooters get wide open looks. The Heat lack size and can be bullied on the boards but they make up for that weakness with intelligence, energy and speed--and James' ability to play multiple positions.
Other things to consider: The Pacers have the right kind of team to beat the Heat; they have two strong big men, an athletic wing player who can challenge James and a point guard who can both get into the paint and make jumpers. Do they have the mental and physical toughness to execute the correct game plan for six or seven games against the reigning NBA champions? If the Pacers execute to the best of their abilities and the Heat do likewise can Indiana still beat the Heat? Probably not; for the Pacers to win, they must be at their best and the Heat must be off of their game due to injury, frustration and/or foul trouble.
Hibbert must pound Chris Bosh into submission at both ends of the court, putting Bosh in foul trouble and/or wearing him down; if Hibbert does not challenge Bosh physically then Bosh's mobility and shooting touch will make a big difference for Miami.
Dwyane Wade's health could be an X factor not just for this championship run but also for Miami's future; Wade has spent his career crashing recklessly into the paint without developing a backup plan (a consistent jump shot and/or a consistent post up game) or preserving his health and it is inevitable that this will reduce his effectiveness and ultimately shorten his career. Earlier this season, Charles Barkley called Wade a declining player and Wade responded by playing well for a few weeks before getting hurt again. It is not clear if Wade's skills have declined or not because he is rarely healthy enough to show what he can do at full strength--and he may never reach full strength again. If Wade is severely limited and Hibbert cancels out Bosh then the Pacers could not only end this Miami title quest but also cast some doubt on Miami's ability to be more than a one year wonder (at least in terms of ultimate postseason success).
The most likely scenario, though, is that James will dominate, Bosh will make an underrated contribution at both ends of the court, Wade will provide just enough support and the Heat will win the series in six games.
Labels: Chris Bosh, David West, Dwyane Wade, George Hill, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert
posted by David Friedman @ 3:14 PM
