20 Second Timeout

Can the Pacers Dethrone the Heat?

The Indiana Pacers pushed the Miami Heat to seven games in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals and they have beaten the Heat in two of their three 2013-14 regular season encounters. The Pacers have openly stated their belief that if they secure homecourt advantage then they will dethrone the two-time defending NBA champion Heat. The reality, though, is that a great team will usually win at least one game on the road during a long playoff series, so homecourt advantage does not guarantee anything other than the comfort of playing game seven in front of a supportive crowd. If these two teams face each other in the postseason, the outcome of the series will be determined less by homecourt advantage and more by two factors: (1) the health of key players and (2) which team imposes its style on the other team.

Indiana's 84-83 home win over Miami on March 26 reinforced and/or revealed several things about these teams:

1) LeBron James is, first and foremost, a big-time scorer; he shredded the NBA's best defense for 38 points on 11-19 field goal shooting despite receiving very little offensive help from Dwyane Wade (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting before leaving the game with a hamstring injury) and Chris Bosh (eight points on 3-11 field goal shooting). James is the best all-around player in the NBA but his primary skill set advantage, by far, is his ability to score; the Heat would not have won the last two NBA titles if James had not led the league in playoff scoring in 2012 (30.3 ppg) and if he had not ranked fourth in 2013 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg).

2) Greg Oden may be able to clog up the middle as a help defender (two blocked shots in just six minutes) but he does not have the necessary mobility and/or guile to slow down Roy Hibbert in a one on one matchup. The aging and undersized Udonis Haslem did a much better job against Hibbert than Oden did.

3) The Pacers' best chance to beat the Heat is to slow the game down, avoid open court turnovers and pound the ball into Hibbert and David West in the paint--but the Pacers do not have a top notch point guard who can control the tempo of the game and their top two scorers are wing players, so it is not easy or natural for Indiana to do what is necessary to beat Miami. The Pacers have the right personnel to challenge Miami--big men who can score in the paint and mobile, lengthy wing defenders who can challenge James and Wade--and they play the right way in stretches but they can be tempted into taking bad shots and/or committing careless turnovers. In contrast, the Heat can run their offense through either James or Wade and thus they are less apt to stray from what they do best.

4) Lance Stephenson is a versatile and valuable player but he is also a hothead who is prone to making bad decisions that could cost the Pacers; when he foolishly got ejected late in the fourth quarter it almost cost the Pacers the game and they can ill afford for him to exercise such poor judgment in the playoffs.

5) The Pacers are young, talented and hungry. They are clearly a viable threat to the Heat--but playoff series are often decided by the transcendent greatness of an elite player: James has demonstrated that he can fill that role and carry his team to championships, while Paul George--Indiana's best player--has not yet shown that he can take that step from All-Star to elite player.

Many pundits declared that Indiana's win all but clinched the East's top seed but the Heat have won two in a row while the Pacers have lost two in a row since their Wednesday encounter, so Indiana's "big" victory may very well turn out to be just a footnote--and that is why it is not wise to draw broad conclusions on the basis of one game. Winning that "big," nationally televised game does not mean much for the Pacers if they cannot take care of business in the "small" games, because all of the games count the same in the standings.

Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant cemented their legacies by leading their teams to "three-peat" title runs; Jordan won three championships in a row on two separate occasions, while Bryant captured a "three-peat" early in his career while playing alongside Shaquille O'Neal before leading the L.A. Lakers to three straight NBA Finals and back to back championships near the end of his career. So far, at the championship level James has only matched what Bryant did past his prime and James has not come close to equaling the overall body of work compiled by Jordan and Bryant. No team has made it to the Finals in four consecutive years since the 1984-87 Boston Celtics, so if James carries the Heat to a fourth Finals appearance in a row he will have accomplished something that even Jordan and Bryant failed to do--and if James authors another dominant postseason performance while leading the Heat to a third straight NBA title then it will be valid to compare James with the all-time greats not just on the basis of his individual talents/accomplishments but also on the basis of his ability to elevate a team to the championship level for an extended period of time.

Labels: Dwyane Wade, Greg Oden, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 3:04 AM

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2014 All-Star Reserve Selections Feature Veterans Nowitzki and Bosh Alongside Three Newcomers

In 2013, six of the 14 All-Star reserves were first-timers and 2012 featured five newcomers but this year there are only three new All-Stars among the coaches' selections: DeMar DeRozan, Paul Millsap and John Wall (Stephen Curry is the only newcomer among the 10 starters selected by the fans). Dirk Nowitzki returns to the midseason classic after a one year absence, while Tim Duncan was not tapped despite serving as the primary post presence for the San Antonio Spurs, who are tied for the second best record in the Western Conference. Nowitzki has earned 12 All-Star selections, a total exceeded by just 13 players in ABA/NBA history. Overall, the coaches agreed with 11 of my 14 All-Star reserve selections after agreeing with all 14 of my choices in 2013 and after agreeing with 12 of my 14 selections in 2012.

The 2014 Western Conference All-Star reserves are LaMarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Damian Lillard, Tony Parker, Chris Paul and James Harden. I would have substituted Duncan for Nowitzki as a frontcourt player and David Lee for James Harden as a wild card; Duncan's impact for a winning program extends well beyond his individual numbers (though he still ranks among the league leaders in rebounding and shot blocking despite playing limited minutes), while Lee is the main frontcourt threat for Golden State, serving a more valuable all-around role than the one filled by Harden for Houston. That said, Nowitzki and Harden are both playing at an All-Star level this season, so I don't have a big problem with either choice. At least one more roster spot will probably open up in the West because starter Kobe Bryant does not plan to play, so new NBA Commissioner Adam Silver will select Bryant's replacement and then West Coach Scott Brooks will decide which reserve will be elevated to a starting slot.

The 2013 Eastern Conference All-Star reserves are Chris Bosh, Roy Hibbert, Paul Millsap, John Wall, Joakim Noah, DeMar DeRozan and Joe Johnson. I picked Lance Stephenson as a wild card instead of Noah. Stephenson has emerged as a valuable, versatile threat for the East-leading Indiana Pacers, topping the team in assists while ranking second in scoring and rebounding. Noah is an excellent player who is having another very good season and he is not a bad choice but I think that this season Stephenson is the better choice. Perhaps Stephenson's checkered history/reputation cost him some consideration.

Bosh is a popular whipping boy for some media members and some fans but he is now a nine-time All-Star, tying him on the all-time list with Hall of Famers Robert Parish, Gary Payton, Dominique Wilkins and Lenny Wilkens.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge, NBA All-Star Game, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 12:03 PM

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Who Should Be Selected as All-Star Reserves?

The 2014 NBA All-Star Game starters were announced last Thursday. LeBron James led the fan balloting for the third time in his career (2007, 2010,2014), tying him with Kobe Bryant (who received the most votes in 2003, 2011 and 2013) for fourth on the all-time All-Star voting leader list and placing him behind only Michael Jordan (nine times), Julius Erving (four times) and Vince Carter (four times) since fans began voting for NBA All-Star starters in the 1974-75 season.

Here is the list of the 2013 NBA All-Star Game starters:

Eastern Conference

LeBron James, Miami 1,416,419 votes
Paul George, Indiana 1,211,318 votes
Carmelo Anthony, New York 935,702 votes
Dwyane Wade, Miami 929,542 votes
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland 860,221 votes

Western Conference 

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City 1,396,294 votes
Stephen Curry, Golden State 1,047,281 votes
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers  988,884 votes
Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers 688,486 votes
Kevin Love, Minnesota 661,246 votes

Generally, the fans do a good job of selecting players who deserve this honor but this season the fans chose Kobe Bryant--who has appeared in just six games--as one of the West's starting guards. Many commentators have been griping for years that fans should not be given the opportunity to choose the All-Star starters but, as I noted in my Februray 2012 article about this issue, "starting in an All-Star Game is a subjective honor (unlike, for instance, the distinction between making the All-NBA First Team and the All-NBA Second Team or the All-NBA Third Team) and when we look back at a player's career we do not consider how many times he started in an All-Star Game but merely how many times he was selected overall; as long as the fans choose five players who are worthy of being ranked among the top 12 players in each conference there is not a problem, because the league's coaches will fill out the roster by selecting the other seven All-Stars."

Bryant clearly has not earned All-Star status this season but even though the fans erred by giving him some kind of career achievement award the end result is still going to most likely turn out all right; Bryant has stated that he does not plan to play in the All-Star Game, which means that NBA Commissioner David Stern will select a worthy replacement player (and then the West Coach will decide who takes Bryant's spot in the starting lineup). I still think that it is fine that fans have a say in the All-Star selection process, particularly because checks and balances are in place to make sure that deserving players who do not receive starting nods will be tapped as reserves when the coaches make their selections; speaking of which, the coaches will now complete the All-Star rosters by choosing seven players: three frontcourt players, two guards and two wild cards (coaches are not permitted to vote for players from their own teams).

Last season, the coaches agreed with all 14 of my All-Star reserve selections and in 2012 the coaches concurred with 12 of my 14 choices. Here are my picks for the All-Star reserves, with brief comments about each player:

Western Conference

(FC) LaMarcus Aldridge: He is posting career-high numbers in scoring (24.3 ppg, fifth in the league), rebounding (11.5 rpg, sixth in the league) and assists (2.8 apg) while leading the Portland Trail Blazers to the third best record in the West.

(FC) Dwight Howard: Howard has not quite regained the explosiveness and dominance that he displayed prior to injuring his back during the 2011-12 season but he is still a powerful presence in the paint at both ends of the court. He is averaging 18.0 ppg, just slightly below his career average of 18.2 ppg, though well short of his career-high 22.9 ppg in 2010-11 (his last fully healthy season). Howard remains a productive rebounder (12.5 rpg, fourth in the league after winning the rebounding crown in five of the six previous seasons) and shot blocker (1.8 bpg, ninth in the league but his lowest average in this category since the 2005-06 season). He also ranks fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage (.577).

(FC) Tim Duncan: Some "stat gurus" might scream in protest but Duncan is the primary post presence at both ends of the court for a San Antonio Spurs team that has the second best record in the West and the third best overall record. The Spurs rank second in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage in no small part due to Duncan's contributions. Duncan's per game numbers are no longer as gaudy as they were during his back to back MVP seasons (2002, 2003) but despite playing limited minutes he still ranks sixth in blocked shots (2.0 bpg) and 15th in rebounding (9.8 rpg).

(G) Damian Lillard: The 2013 Rookie of the Year is the second most valuable player for the much improved Trail Blazers. His assist average and two point field goal percentage have declined this season but he has increased his scoring average (from 19.7 ppg to 20.8 ppg) and three point field goal percentage (from .368 to .419). His free throw percentage is up and his turnovers are down, so overall he has become a more mature and efficient player.

(G) Tony Parker: Duncan's post presence has been the foundation for San Antonio's success since he arrived in the NBA but Parker's speed, penetrating ability and shooting touch make him the catalyst for the Spurs' offense. His statistics are not as spectacular as the numbers posted by some NBA guards but Parker plays a key role in a winning program. He is not what TNT analyst Kenny Smith would call a "looter in a riot," a player scoring a lot of points for a bad team.

(WC) Chris Paul: The 32-15 L.A. Clippers are 10-3 without Paul, so perhaps he is not quite the indispensable leader that he is made out to be, but--even considering the fact that his assist numbers are artificially inflated--Paul is a first rate playmaker who remains on the short list of top NBA point guards.

(WC) David Lee: This two-time All-Star provides inside muscle for Golden State to complement the outside shooting of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. He ranks 12th in the league in rebounding (9.9 rpg) and 18th in field goal percentage (.522).

If Russell Westbrook were not out indefinitely due to his knee injury (and thus presumably unavailable to play in the All-Star Game) then he would be my top reserve guard and I would bump everyone else down a notch (meaning that Lee would not be on my reserve roster in that case). Oklahoma City went 21-4 with Westbrook in the lineup, as the dynamic scorer/passer/defender averaged 21.3 ppg, 7.0 apg and a career-high 6.0 rpg. Kevin Durant is playing extremely well while picking up the slack for Westbrook but the Thunder are 15-6 sans Westbrook--Durant's greatness has kept the Thunder in the mix but they are only a dominant team when Westbrook is healthy.

James Harden is not an elite or "foundational" player; he is performing at an All-Star level--ranking seventh in the league in scoring (23.7 ppg)--and I would put him on the team to take the injured Bryant's place but I think that the seven players listed above are more valuable than Harden. Put it this way: Harden would not start ahead of any of the aforementioned guards if they were on the same team, nor would a good general manager trade Aldridge, Howard, Duncan or Lee for Harden (contract status and age notwithstanding but looking only at current on court impact).

Dirk Nowitzki is playing very well for a Dallas team that is clinging to the eighth playoff spot but his numbers and impact do not match the performances posted by the frontcourt players and wild card players who I selected.

Eastern Conference

(FC) Chris Bosh: Bosh is underrated by many fans and commentators but coaches realize his true value: he is an eight time-All-Star, though he has only been voted in by the fans three times. Bosh scores inside the paint and from the perimeter, he ranks second on the Miami Heat with 6.7 rpg despite playing out of position as an undersized center and his defensive versatility is vitally important to the two-time defending NBA champions.

(FC) Roy Hibbert: Hibbert is the cornerstone piece of Indiana's dominating defense and he has come a long way from when his awkward gait reminded me of "Anakin Skywalker taking his first halting steps after being entombed in the Darth Vader suit." His numbers do not jump off of the stat sheet--though he ranks second in the league in blocked shots (2.6 bpg)--but his impact is undeniable.

(FC) Paul Millsap: Millsap is the best, most consistent player on the fourth seeded team in the East; that is not much to write home about this year but it is good enough to earn an All-Star selection in 2014.

(G) John Wall: The fourth year Wizard is finally healthy and he is having a career year, averaging 20.0 ppg (16th in the league), 8.5 apg (fourth in the league) and 1.9 spg (fifth in the league). Washington is below .500--like most of the Eastern Conference--but the Wizards would be even worse without the contributions of their versatile point guard.

(G) Lance Stephenson: In his rookie season with Indiana four years ago, Stephenson scored just 37 total points but now he is a key all-around threat for the East's top team: he leads the Pacers in assists (5.3 apg) while ranking second in scoring (14.2 ppg) and rebounding (7.0 rpg). He has authored three triple doubles, topping the NBA in that category.

(WC) DeMar DeRozan: DeRozan ranks 11th in the league in scoring (21.8 ppg) and he is the best player on a Toronto team that surprisingly has the third best record in the East.

(WC) Joe Johnson: The Brooklyn Nets' big name starting five has not produced many wins but Johnson is the one star on the roster who has at least come close to meeting expectations; he leads the team in scoring (15.7 ppg) and three point field goals made (83 in 42 games).

Outside of Indiana and Miami, the East is a vast wasteland this season. It is difficult to rave about individual performers on sub-.500 teams; no one on the sorry Eastern teams is playing like Pistol Pete Maravich in his prime or like Kobe Bryant in the Smush Parker-Kwame Brown years, carrying decrepit squads to the brink of respectability. Many former Eastern Conference All-Stars are either out of action due to injuries (most notably Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo) or have declined dramatically due to age, changing roles and/or other factors. The situation is so bad that TNT's Charles Barkley could not even come up with seven worthy reserve candidates; he picked Hibbert, Bosh, Stephenson, Wall, Millsap, Johnson and "a Raptor."

Labels: Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, LaMarcus Aldridge, LeBron James, NBA All-Star Game, Roy Hibbert, Tim Duncan

posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 PM

11 comments

Miami's Big Three Overwhelm Pacers, Earn Third Straight NBA Finals Appearance

The Indiana Pacers pushed the heavily favored defending champion Miami Heat to the brink of elimination in the Eastern Conference Finals but in game seven the Heat pushed back: LeBron James led the way as usual (game-high 32 points, eight rebounds, four assists) but this time he had more help from the other two thirds of the Big Three as Dwyane Wade had his best game of the playoffs (21 points, nine rebounds) and Chris Bosh made his presence felt in the paint even though his numbers were pedestrian (nine points, eight rebounds, three blocked shots). The Pacers have all of the necessary physical components to beat the Miami Heat but this series was about mental focus and toughness: could the Pacers execute the right game plan offensively and defensively four times in a seven game series? The answer to that question turned out to be, "Not this year," and Miami rolled to a 99-76 victory, earning their third straight trip to the NBA Finals and a chance to becoming the first repeat champions since the 2010 Lakers.

Game seven went sideways for the Pacers right from the start, even though the Pacers briefly took the lead; the Pacers turned the ball over at an alarming rate, they granted the Heat easy access to the paint--resulting in foul trouble for the Pacers and free throw attempts for the Heat--and when they did not turn the ball over they lacked the patience to create the proper passing angles to exploit their inside advantage with Roy Hibbert (18 points, eight rebounds but just 11 field goal attempts) and David West (14 points, six rebounds, six turnovers). The Heat deserve credit for staying poised and for ratcheting up their defensive pressure to the extent that it fried the Pacers' brains but if the Pacers had remained calm and made the extra pass then they could have exploited gaps in Miami's defense and forced the Heat to refrain from trapping so aggressively; as Hubie Brown always says, you don't beat the trap with the first pass but with the second pass, because no man can outrun the ball: after the first pass, the offense enjoys a four on three advantage and when the second pass is made the result should be a wide open shot. Hit the Heat upside the head with four or five sequences of two passes leading to dunks and/or wide open three pointers and then see how enthusiastic the Heat are about trapping all over the court; nothing saps defensive energy like the sight of the ball going through the hoop. Unfortunately for the Pacers, during game seven they often could not even safely make the first pass out of the trap, let alone make the second pass to get a wide open shot.
 
When Kobe Bryant led the L.A. Lakers to three straight NBA Finals (and two straight championships) from 2008-2010 he dismantled defenses by repeatedly making a pinpoint pass out of the initial trap; the recipient of that pass often made the assist pass but that assist would have never happened if Bryant had turned the ball over or forced a shot. Being a superstar is about more than just accumulating certain box score statistics and/or piling up impressive "advanced basketball statistics." A superstar is such a deadly offensive threat that he forces the opposing team to trap him and then he destroys that trap by splitting it off the dribble (a la Mark Price), shooting before it arrives (Bryant often uses this tactic because he can pivot in either direction to create a high percentage shot) or passing crisply to create the aforementioned four on three advantage. Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan and LeBron James were/are superstars but most so-called superstars cannot consistently attack a defense in this manner.

There is a reason that I get irritated when certain players are crowned as MVP candidates or superstars or elite players after a few good games or even a month's worth of good games; those terms should be reserved for players who perform at the highest level over the course of an entire season and then maintain that performance level in the postseason. Paul George is a legit All-Star and perhaps he has superstar potential--but he is not a superstar now; LeBron James ate him alive at both ends of the court in game seven and George had just seven points (on 2-9 field goal shooting) plus seven rebounds and four assists before fouling out midway through the fourth quarter. There is a mental/psychological component of greatness that "stat gurus" will never be able to quantify or understand--and that is precisely the point that Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made in an interview a while back when he said that he did not want "stat gurus" telling him which lineups to use because "stat gurus" do not understand what is in a player's heart/mind and which players will crumble under pressure even if their statistics supposedly indicate that they should be on the court. Would a "stat guru" have put Scottie Pippen on the court with four reserves during a crucial fourth quarter stretch of game six of the 1992 NBA Finals while Chicago trailed Portland by 15? Chicago Coach Phil Jackson had trained his reserve players to be ready for that kind of situation and he also knew that he needed to rest Michael Jordan for the game's final moments; Pippen and the reserves slashed Portland's lead and then a refreshed Jordan returned to action to win the game--and clinch the championship--with Pippen at his side.

James' brilliance and the Pacers' focus (or lack thereof) were the two main themes of this series but the way that Wade--an All-Star and an All-NBA Third Team member this season--has suddenly become a very ordinary player was a significant sidebar story. It is impossible to know what is really going on with Wade now. Has Wade permanently declined to the extent that he cannot play at a high level for an entire regular season/extended playoff run or is he just very injury prone but otherwise his skills are intact? TNT's Steve Kerr and others noted that Wade seemed disinterested for much of this series; if anything, being injured should increase a player's focus and intensity, not decrease it. It almost seemed like Wade was pouting about his reduced role--but then, seemingly out of nowhere, in game seven Wade found the wherewithal to perform at a solid All-Star level, if not quite an All-NBA level. Wade refuses to talk about his knee injury, though he has made sure that word gets out that it is very unpredictable and that just because he looks good/moves well in one game does not mean that he will be able to play well in the next game. That is certainly very convenient, because it elevates his solid performances to a heroic level while excusing his many poor performances throughout this postseason. I just find the whole Wade act a bit tiresome; he flops around at the slightest hint of contact but he is also a sneaky cheap shot artist (breaking Kobe Bryant's nose in an All-Star Game, taking out Rajon Rondo in a playoff game, "accidentally" hitting Lance Stephenson upside the head earlier in this series, etc.). Wade not only refused to talk about the injury while making sure that everyone in fact knows about the injury but for some reason he grumbled about not getting enough touches--as if LeBron James, the best player in the league by far, should be going out of his way to give up the ball so that Wade can miss some more jumpers and get some more layups blocked. James has handled the situation masterfully, refusing to directly criticize Wade while also making it clear that he expects Wade to be more productive. I greatly respect Tim Grover and I understand why he speaks highly of his client Wade, but the more I watch the Heat the less I buy Grover's contention that Wade has somehow taught James how to be a leader/champion; James has clearly learned a lot in the past few years but I am more inclined to believe that he has learned from Pat Riley, Hakeem Olajuwon and/or others than that he learned from the second best player on his own team. When Wade won his first NBA title, Shaquille O'Neal was Miami's vocal leader and he was also the player who was drawing double teams; in the ensuing years, O'Neal declined and/or missed games because of injury and the Heat quickly descended in the standings. I am not sure what Wade learned from those experiences that would be relevant to James' recent evolution.

Bosh is everyone's favorite whipping boy but what happened to him in this series is easy to understand; he is a slender power forward who was overmatched physically while playing center against Roy Hibbert, a big, low post brute. Bosh was also limited by a sprained ankle but since he really does not talk about his injuries we don't know just how severe the ankle injury is. Bosh's scoring and rebounding figure to increase in the Finals against the Spurs because the matchups will not be so unfavorable for Bosh at either end of the court. Perhaps James and Wade will even permit Bosh to post up once in a while and/or receive the ball in position to drive/attack the hoop, instead of consigning Bosh to the outer limits of the offense so that they have open driving lanes for themselves: Bosh cannot be expected to drive to the hoop from the three point line--he does not have handles like a shooting guard--but if he is given the ball in the midpost area he can face up and either hit the 15 foot jumper or make a nice, two dribble drive into the paint.

After the game, James said that he is 20 times the player he was when his Cleveland Cavaliers were swept by the San Antonio Spurs in the 2007 NBA Finals. While that is not literally true, it is true that James' accelerated growth curve has continued on a steep upward path, resulting in four MVPs, one Finals MVP and one championship during the past six years. During the 2012 NBA Finals, James demonstrated how much he has improved his focus and to what extent he has refined his skill set. In Jedi terminology, James was just a padawan apprentice when he faced Jedi Master Tim Duncan in the 2007 NBA Finals but now James is a full fledged Jedi Master; the circle is now complete and James has a chance to further establish his Jedi credentials by outdueling a four-time NBA champion on the sport's biggest stage.

Labels: David West, Dwyane Wade, Indiana Pacers, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, San Antonio Spurs, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan

posted by David Friedman @ 6:41 AM

6 comments

Heat's Game Seven Showdown Versus Pacers Will be a Defining Moment in the Big Three Era

No player's career and no team's era can fairly be defined on the basis of one game--but certain games are more important than others. Just like LeBron James' epic 40 point, 18 rebound, nine assist performance against Indiana in the 2012 playoffs will always be remembered as a positive landmark moment in James' career, Monday night's game seven against Indiana will form a significant aspect of James' legacy, particularly as a clutch performer. Winning that game will not automatically boost James to another level, nor will losing that game somehow "invalidate" everything that he has already accomplished--but this is an interesting juncture in NBA history: the Miami Heat may win game seven en route to claiming their second consecutive NBA title but we may also look back at this moment and realize that the Big Three had already peaked collectively, even if James is still improving individually.

The Pacers extended the Eastern Conference Finals to a seventh game by beating down the Heat--literally and figuratively--91-77; the Pacers outrebounded the Heat 53-33 and outscored them in the paint 44-22. After a closely contested first half, the Pacers pounded the Heat 29-15 in the third quarter and, at times, the game resembled big brother pushing around little brother in a backyard game; as TNT's Charles Barkley is fond of repeating, the Heat's big men are not going to grow during the flight back to Miami, so the Heat will have to create enough advantages elsewhere to overcome the inside dominance of Roy Hibbert (24 points, 11 rebounds) and David West (11 points, 14 rebounds, four assists).

"The Pacers have the right kind of team to beat the Heat." I wrote those words in my series preview but I picked the Heat to win the series because I expected James to perform at an incredible level and because I questioned if the Pacers had the necessary focus and toughness to execute the correct game plan not just for a game or two but for the duration of a seven game series. The Pacers have responded well to that challenge and now a seven game series has been transformed into a one game, winner take all scenario: a sprained ankle, foul trouble and/or an ejection could tilt the balance. Miami entered this series as the favorite and the favorite is never happy to be extended to a seventh game; think of it this way: would you have a better chance beating LeBron James one on one in a game played to seven points or in a game played to one point? The Pacers have not only shortened the series but they have demonstrated that they can consistently exploit certain matchup advantages to offset James' individual brilliance.

James played well in game six--29 points, seven rebounds, six assists--but he did not take over for a key stretch the way that he did in game five. Paul George pretty much matched James shot for shot (28 points), rebound for rebound (eight) and assist for assist (five). TNT's Charles Barkley had a great line about George: "We're not going to give out the superstar label after one week. We're not ESPN." Barkley is right--but if George equals his game six performance (not just the numbers but the impact) in game seven then he will have taken a big step on the path to rightly being considered a superstar.

Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting, their lowest collective one game scoring total since becoming teammates in 2010. Bosh is playing out of position at center, a tactic that works for the Heat against most teams but is not turning out so well against the Pacers; Bosh is being physically worn down from banging against bigger bodies on defense and then he is being misused/underutilized on offense, spotting up for long jumpers instead of relying on his mobility to drive to the hoop and/or attack from the post with spin moves/athleticism. Yes, Bosh should be expected to provide more than he has provided this series but the Miami coaching staff has not helped Bosh by the way that they are deploying him at either end of the court.

It is fascinating to watch Dwyane Wade struggle without the explosive leaping ability that played such a huge role in his earlier success; now everyone can see that he is closer to 6-2 than 6-4--has Wade ever looked smaller than he does now when he spends more time on the ground than in the air?--and that without his hops Wade often looks like just another guy. I do not know if Wade's problems stem from injury and/or represent permanent, age-related decline but I do know that what we are seeing now confirms that I was always right to insist that Wade does not belong in the same category with Kobe Bryant (let's not even bring up Michael Jordan): Bryant is several inches taller than Wade and Bryant is a threat to score from anywhere on the court without having to rely on jumping over people--and that is why Bryant averaged 27.3 ppg in 2012-13 at the age of 34 (the 31 year old Wade is averaging 14.5 ppg versus the Pacers after averaging 21.2 ppg during the regular season). Bryant could still get to the hoop and finish even without dunking, while in the Indiana series Wade seems to miss every shot close to the hoop that he cannot dunk. Wade is not a great finisher at the rim like Bryant or Tony Parker now or like Rod Stickland back in the day (even a young Strickland rarely, if ever, dunked); Wade is an athlete--or, was an athlete--who could outjump and overpower much bigger men. Bryant has played with a bad ankle, a bad knee and/or torn ligaments in various fingers and he was still able to dominate as a number one option even when his mobility and/or ballhandling were compromised by those injuries; Wade deserves credit for trying to play through his current problems--but those problems are also revealing the inherent limitations that have always existed in his game but that were shrouded a bit by his tremendous athletic ability.

After LeBron James' infamous "Decision" I acknowledged that--barring injuries--the Heat would be perennial contenders but I expressed skepticism that the Heat would win multiple championships: I expected Wade to decline soon and I thought that the Heat would lack size and depth because of spending so much money to pay the Big Three. Both of those factors have come into play in this series and could very well prove to be Miami's downfall in game seven; even if James explodes for 40 points that may not be enough to push Miami over the top if Wade is a non-factor and if no other Heat players step up.

All of that being said, the Heat have already won a championship in the Big Three era and they are just five wins away from capturing their second title. They will enjoy the comforts of home in game seven and they will welcome back Chris Andersen, the suspended big man whose energy was sorely missed in game six. Miami's role players will likely play better, while Indiana's role players will likely play worse. All of those reasons, plus the fact that James will be the best player on the court, make Miami the logical pick--but if the Pacers stay focused and execute their game plan then they are absolutely capable of winning this game: the Heat players will not get bigger, so if the Pacers force the ball inside, cut down on their turnovers and prevent the Heat from easily driving to the hoop then the outcome could hinge on one last second score/stop.

Labels: Chris Bosh, David West, Dwyane Wade, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM

10 comments

LeBron Leads the Way as Heat Win Pivotal Game Five

LeBron James led the Miami Heat in scoring (30 points), rebounds (eight) and assists (six, tied with Mario Chalmers) as they defeated the Indiana Pacers 90-79 to move within one victory of a third straight trip to the NBA Finals. It is interesting to hear LeBron James being praised for doing precisely the things that Kobe Bryant is often criticized for doing: cussing out teammates and taking over the game by scoring. James gave his teammates an earful on the sidelines prior to the second half and then he poured in 16 points on 7-10 field goal shooting in the decisive third quarter as the Heat outscored the Pacers 30-13 to take control of the game after the Pacers led for most of the first half. James is an excellent passer--he had four assists in the third quarter alone--but the idea that he is a pass first player is not quite correct; James is a very dominant scorer and his teams have always been at their best when he relentlessly attacks the hoop. James has a scoring, attacking mentality that pass first point guards like Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd never had; even when Magic Johnson took on added scoring responsibilities he never scored at nearly the same rate that James scores.

It is tempting for some people to compare what James is doing to what he did when he played in Cleveland but the critical difference now is that James' mental game is much, much stronger; he quit when things got tough versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and versus Dallas in the 2011 Finals but now James understands the obligation that comes with being the best player on the court/best player in the league: it is his job to take over by asserting his will and he cannot abdicate that responsibility by casually dribbling the ball up the court, giving it up and watching passively as the game slips away (which is what he did in the aforementioned Boston and Dallas scenarios). Being a great player is not defined entirely by statistics but rather by timely impact; Paul George, James' Indiana counterpart, had a game that is statistically comparable (27 points, 11 rebounds, five assists) but no one who watched game five with understanding would put George in the same category as James, even though George is a very good player.

The Indiana Pacers are big, physical, well-coached and very tough on defense--but they do not have a legit franchise player and that is why they likely will lose this series. The only way that a team that lacks a legit franchise player can win a championship is by executing very efficiently at both ends of the court and consistently receiving significant contributions from several All-Star caliber performers.The 1979 Seattle Supersonics accomplished this, as did the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

There are only a handful of legit franchise players in the NBA: they are the ones who you see regularly leading their teams to the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. Franchise player status is not solely defined by scoring average or any other statistic, "advanced" or basic; some 25 ppg scorers are not even close to being franchise players (2013 James Harden, 2010 Monta Ellis and 2006 Gilbert Arenas, to name just three recent examples) while some franchise players never averaged 25 ppg (Bill Russell and Magic Johnson).

Chris Bosh receives the bulk of the criticism when things go bad for Miami--and Bosh has been bashed after each Miami loss in this series--but Bosh is being asked to do an impossible task in this series: play in the pivot against Roy Hibbert, a legit, back to the basket, seven foot All-Star caliber center. Playing small ball with James at power forward and Bosh at center works wonderfully against most teams because the Heat can overwhelm the opposition with speed but the handful of teams that can slow the game down and turn it into trench warfare have a major advantage against Miami in the paint. Bosh plays on the perimeter offensively and he has has hands (and back and legs) full just trying to hold his position defensively so it is unrealistic to expect him to post big rebounding totals against Indiana. The physical pounding is also obviously having an impact on Bosh's energy level offensively and his shooting touch.

It has always been fashionable to say that James had no help in Cleveland but the Cavs had a deep and rugged frontcourt that defended and rebounded very well. In some ways, James almost has to do more with the Heat than he did with the Cavs, at least in terms of playing in the paint and guarding legit big guys. Again, the difference is that now James embraces that challenge, whereas in Cleveland he was reluctant to play power forward and--even though he had some monster playoff games--he at times shrunk from the challenge of taking over.

Charles Barkley has been saying for a while that Dwyane Wade is a declining player--and I predicted this decline some time ago because Wade has spent years throwing his body recklessly into the paint without ever developing a consistent outside game as a backup plan and/or a way to limit the physical pounding he is taking. During the game five telecast, Steve Kerr pointed out that Wade is easy to guard now because he cannot get to the hoop consistently and because no one is scared of Wade's outside game; it will likely be more difficult for defenders to check a post-Achilles tendon surgery Kobe Bryant than it is to check Wade because even if the Achilles injury takes away some of Bryant's explosiveness he will still be able to hit jump shots and post up.

It is funny how we no longer hear anyone talking about Miami being Wade's team; Wade had a very good regular season but even then he was clearly the second option and it is becoming increasingly clear that at this stage of his career his body can not hold up for a full 82 game season plus an extended playoff run. Wade has had bad knees for two playoffs in a row and at some point this has to be recognized as not a temporary condition but rather a permanent reduction in his capabilities. That is one reason I questioned the idea that the James-Wade-Bosh trio would automatically win "not one, not two, not three," etc. titles. Yes, they have already captured one championship and the second one may only be a few weeks away but each one gets progressively harder to obtain, as we saw in both of the Chicago Bulls' three-peat seasons--and it is still more than a stretch to compare James and Wade to Jordan and Pippen: even if the Heat beat the Pacers and the Spurs in the next few weeks they will still have to win four more titles for James and Wade to collectively match what Jordan and Pippen accomplished. I will be shocked if James and Wade even get close to that total.

If the Pacers cut down on their turnovers, keep James out of the paint as much as possible and pound the ball inside to Hibbert and David West--both of whom missed easy layups early in game five that proved to be costly in the long run--then they certainly can win game six in Indiana. The home team has the advantage in game seven but the home team also faces added pressure as well--and a one game scenario is much more random than a seven game series: a sprained ankle, foul trouble and/or an ejection could swing the balance in one game.

One thing that I like about the way that Indiana Coach Frank Vogel and his players talk about this series is that they are respectful of the Miami Heat but not fearful; that is the difference between being foolish--i.e., Milwaukee's Brandon Jennings guaranteeing that his team would beat Miami in six games--and being a serious, confident and intelligent competitor. Some people wonder what Jennings was supposed to say when he was asked about the Miami-Milwaukee series; the answer to that question is listen to how Vogel, Hibbert and West talk: those guys are not backing down or conceding anything but they also are not making stupid predictions/guarantees/declarations. Vogel praises the Heat as a great team but then says that he believes that his Pacers can compete with the Heat; Vogel has been proven right in that regard but it will obviously be very difficult for the Pacers to beat the Heat two games in a row to win this series.

Labels: Chris Bosh, David West, Dwyane Wade, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 5:33 AM

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Pacers Pound the Paint, Beat the Heat

The Indiana Pacers outscored the Miami Heat 50-32 in the paint, outrebounded them 49-30 and translated that interior dominance into a 99-92 win to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2. Roy Hibbert (23 points, 12 rebounds) and David West (14 points, 12 rebounds) led Indiana's inside attack, while Lance Stephenson--who has morphed into some hybrid version of Ruben Patterson, Vernon Maxwell and Bonzi Wells--scored 20 points, grabbed five rebounds and took turns harassing LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on defense. James scored a game-high 24 points and had a solid floor game (six rebounds, five assists) but he never quite took over the game before fouling out with :56 remaining. James did not receive much help; Mario Chalmers played well (20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting) but Dwyane Wade (16 points, six assists, 5-15 field goal shooting) and Chris Bosh (seven points, three rebounds, 1-6 field goal shooting) were invisible for most of the game.

Indiana scored the first 11 points of the game but Miami countered with a quick run to take a 17-16 lead. The game was closely contested the rest of the way. Both teams made big plays and blunders--and the same could be said of the officiating--but the main story was that James did not have nearly the same success in the post that he did in Miami's game three victory. TNT's Steve Kerr observed that even though James has become an effective post player he still seems to prefer facing the hoop; if James is defended physically he will often settle for turnaround jumpers instead of attacking the hoop.

In my series preview I picked Miami to win the series--and I stand by that choice--but I also wrote, "The Pacers have the right kind of team to beat the Heat; they have two strong big men, an athletic wing player who can challenge James and a point guard who can both get into the paint and make jumpers. Do they have the mental and physical toughness to execute the correct game plan for six or seven games against the reigning NBA champions?" When you are facing a great team in the playoffs, you cannot give away possessions, let alone give away games; the Pacers blew a great opportunity at the end of game one and they inexplicably lacked energy in game three. It seems unlikely that Indiana can get away with squandering two golden opportunities--but another way of looking at this series is that the Pacers have beaten the Heat twice in the last three games after the Heat had only lost three times in their previous 49 games.

TNT's Kenny Smith believes that unless LeBron James has four superhuman performances the Pacers will win this series because they have the more well balanced team; he feels that James is Miami's only matchup advantage and that James has to dominate in order to make up for Indiana's strength inside and overall depth. Julius Erving, who made a wonderful guest appearance on TNT's Inside the NBA set, disagrees: "The NBA has been and always will be a star driven league, so you can have all the balanced attack that you want but at crunch time in these next three games if the stars become superstars and play like superstars--and Miami has three and a possible fourth and Indiana has one, possibly two--the stars are going to be the key to the balance of this series, not a balanced attack. It's not equal opportunity basketball; you just can't dribble it and move it around and let anybody take the shot at strategic times. You've got to have direction and a purpose for a guy having the ball in his hands." Erving's larger point is correct--and has been time tested throughout NBA history--but if the Pacers maintain an intense possession by possession focus on playing the right way at both ends of the court they can, at the very least, seriously challenge the Heat and find out if James is willing/able to play at the superhuman level he reached in the 2012 playoffs.

Labels: Chris Bosh, David West, Dwyane Wade, Indiana Pacers, Lance Stephenson, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 5:32 AM

1 comments

P.J. Carlesimo and Jon Barry Agree with Frank Vogel's Roy Hibbert Decision

Indiana Coach Frank Vogel has received widespread condemnation for his decision to twice bench 7-2 shot blocker Roy Hibbert and go with a small lineup against Miami in late game situations. On both occasions, LeBron James scored by driving straight to the hoop, including the game-winning layup as time expired in overtime; after trailing by one point with just 2.2 seconds left, Miami escaped with a 103-102 victory in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals. Vogel justified benching Hibbert by saying that if Hibbert had been on the court then Miami could have run a play for Chris Bosh, who is more mobile than Hibbert. Vogel opted to use a small lineup so that his players could switch on all screens without creating any favorable mismatches for Miami. There is some validity to what Vogel said but in order to be successful in the long run a coach must develop a system that enables him to maximize the talents of his best players; Hibbert is one of the best rim protectors in the league, so Indiana's defense should take advantage of his size and length--and if that size and length forces opposing teams to run plays for their centers to shoot jumpers instead of attacking the hoop then that is an advantage for Indiana. If Vogel's regular plan in late game situations is to go small then he should stick with that plan--but Vogel has generally tried to force teams to match up with his squad and not the other way around, so benching Hibbert is not just a questionable move strategically but also psychologically because it could result in the Indiana players feeling that Vogel does not trust his system and/or trust them.

The larger, mostly unmentioned issue is that there was no reason for Paul George to overplay James to such an extent on the final play that he gave James a wide open driving lane; regardless of who was on the court for Indiana, the team defensive strategy when up by a point with 2.2 seconds left has to be (1) defend without fouling and (2) make the opponent shoot a contested jump shot to beat us. Whether or not benching Hibbert was the best choice, the Pacers still could have won if they had forced James--or another Miami player--to shoot a contested jump shot. Did Vogel not remind George to give James a cushion or did George simply forget his assignment under pressure?

The worst possible shot for Indiana to give up was a layup or dunk by James; putting Hibbert in the game and planting him in front of the rim would have made it much less likely that James would have scored on a dunk or layup, so it is difficult to agree with Vogel's decision. Being able to switch all screens is nice and if that is how Vogel's team played throughout the season and throughout most of this game then it would be understandable for him to ride or die with that plan but Hibbert is the anchor for Indiana's stingy defense and Vogel should have stuck with what got Indiana to the Eastern Conference Finals in the first place: size, toughness and the ability to protect the paint.

It is not a good sign for Vogel that two of the people who agreed with his Hibbert decision are P.J. Carlesimo, who has hardly distinguished himself as a top NBA strategist, and Jon Barry, who has a history of saying things that do not make sense. When P.J. Carelismo and Jon Barry are praising your strategic acumen, it is time to rethink your late game defensive plan. It will be very interesting to see what Vogel does if this particular scenario presents itself again; I suspect that Vogel will keep Hibbert in the game and that Vogel will emphasize the importance of forcing a Miami player to shoot a contested jump shot.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Frank Vogel, Indiana Pacers, Jon Barry, LeBron James, Miami Heat, P.J. Carlesimo, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 10:31 PM

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Miami Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Miami (66-16) vs. #3 Indiana (49-32)

Season series: Indiana, 2-1

Indiana can win if...the Pacers can slow the game down and pound the ball inside to David West and Roy Hibbert. All-Star Paul George has an opportunity to elevate his status and be considered an All-NBA caliber player if he can hold MVP LeBron James below his season averages while also making a contribution offensively. James averaged 24.5 ppg on .627 field goal shooting versus Milwaukee in the first round but Chicago's bump and run defense held James to 23.6 ppg on .438 field goal shooting; Indiana defended James as well as any other team during the regular season and that trend must continue for the Pacers to win this series. Point guard George Hill, who missed one game in the New York series because of a concussion, must continue to play at a high level at both ends of the court.

Miami will win because...LeBron James has been playing at an incredible level--even by his lofty standards--since his 40 point, 18 rebound, nine assist performance versus Indiana in game four of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals. In order to beat Miami, Indiana has to slow James down without committing so many defenders to him that the Heat's three point shooters get wide open looks. The Heat lack size and can be bullied on the boards but they make up for that weakness with intelligence, energy and speed--and James' ability to play multiple positions.

Other things to consider: The Pacers have the right kind of team to beat the Heat; they have two strong big men, an athletic wing player who can challenge James and a point guard who can both get into the paint and make jumpers. Do they have the mental and physical toughness to execute the correct game plan for six or seven games against the reigning NBA champions? If the Pacers execute to the best of their abilities and the Heat do likewise can Indiana still beat the Heat? Probably not; for the Pacers to win, they must be at their best and the Heat must be off of their game due to injury, frustration and/or foul trouble.

Hibbert must pound Chris Bosh into submission at both ends of the court, putting Bosh in foul trouble and/or wearing him down; if Hibbert does not challenge Bosh physically then Bosh's mobility and shooting touch will make a big difference for Miami.

Dwyane Wade's health could be an X factor not just for this championship run but also for Miami's future; Wade has spent his career crashing recklessly into the paint without developing a backup plan (a consistent jump shot and/or a consistent post up game) or preserving his health and it is inevitable that this will reduce his effectiveness and ultimately shorten his career. Earlier this season, Charles Barkley called Wade a declining player and Wade responded by playing well for a few weeks before getting hurt again. It is not clear if Wade's skills have declined or not because he is rarely healthy enough to show what he can do at full strength--and he may never reach full strength again. If Wade is severely limited and Hibbert cancels out Bosh then the Pacers could not only end this Miami title quest but also cast some doubt on Miami's ability to be more than a one year wonder (at least in terms of ultimate postseason success).

The most likely scenario, though, is that James will dominate, Bosh will make an underrated contribution at both ends of the court, Wade will provide just enough support and the Heat will win the series in six games.

Labels: Chris Bosh, David West, Dwyane Wade, George Hill, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul George, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 3:14 PM

2 comments

Indiana Versus New York Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#3 Indiana (49-32) vs. #2 New York (54-28)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

New York can win if…the Knicks shoot a high percentage from three point range, keep their turnover rate low and avoid making knucklehead moves on and off the court.

Indiana will win because…the Pacers are a suffocating defensive team that will force the Knicks out of their comfort zone. The Boston Celtics had a good game plan against the Knicks but they lacked the young legs necessary to execute that game plan over the course of a seven game series; the Pacers are well stocked with young, talented players.

Other things to consider: Much like a boxer who "carries" an inferior opponent instead of knocking him out, the Knicks buried the Celtics into a 3-0 hole but--after a series of knucklehead moves on and off the court--the Knicks then dropped two games before barely holding to victory in game six to close out the series. Give the Celtics credit for fighting hard and for being well coached but the Knicks showed signs of reverting back to some lamentable habits: sloppy offensive execution punctuated by low percentage shots or turnovers, indifferent transition defense and collective immaturity (including J.R. Smith's flagrant foul that cost him a one game suspension and the Knicks wearing ludicrious "funeral" outfits prior to losing game five).

Is it possible to win a championship with a roster that includes three players with knucklehead tendencies? You never know when Carmelo Anthony is going to start trying to drill holes in the hardwood while dribbling the basketball as his teammates watch helplessly, J.R. Smith can shoot either team into/out of the game and Kenyon Martin provides defense/physicality but he can also provide momentum for the opposing team with ill-timed fouls/silly plays. Anthony shot often (26.7 FGA/game) versus the Celtics but he did not shoot accurately (.381 FG%, .265 3FG%). He averaged 5.3 rpg--subpar for a small forward, let alone a power forward (the position he now plays in New York's small lineup)--and 1.8 apg and he played his usual indifferent defense; he can be a deadly--at time unstoppable--scorer but his individual statistics and lack of team success in the playoffs throughout his career show that he is not really an elite player, regardless of how much he is hyped up by the media.

Indiana's frontcourt of center Roy Hibbert, power forward David West and small forward Paul George matches up very well with New York's frontcourt of center Tyson Chandler, power forward Carmelo Anthony and small forward Iman Shumpert; the Pacers have great size, length, versatility and toughness.

This should be a very competitive, hard fought series and the Knicks certainly have enough talent to win but the way that they concluded the Boston series hardly inspires confidence that they are primed for a long playoff run.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, David West, Indiana Pacers, J.R. Smith, New York Knicks, Paul George, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 5:40 PM

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Miami Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Miami (46-20) vs. #3 Indiana (42-24)

Season series: Miami, 3-1 

Indiana can win if…the Pacers limit their turnovers and win the rebounding battle, thus forcing the Heat to score in the half court as opposed to thriving in the transition game. If the Pacers control the tempo of the game then they can exploit their size/strength advantage at the center/power forward positions by posting up Roy Hibbert and David West.

Miami will win because…LeBron James has a history of dominating in the first two rounds of the playoffs and this series is unlikely to be an exception to that pattern; James leads the Heat in several significant statistical categories and his dominant regular season performance that almost certainly will earn him the 2012 MVP has put to rest the ludicrous notion that he is some kind of sidekick to Dwyane Wade. The Heat have game seven at home as a trump card if necessary.

Other things to consider: On paper the Pacers look like a team that could cause the Heat some trouble: the two things that bother the Heat the most are big frontcourt players who can score and dynamic point guards who can get into the paint. In a half court game, Roy Hibbert and David West will present matchup problems for the Heat up front, while Darren Collison, George Hill and Leandro Barbosa will pose challenges for Miami's point guards. Danny Granger and Paul George have the size, length and athletic ability to provide more defensive resistance against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade than Miami's two dynamic wing players generally face.

The Heat won the first three regular season meetings between these two teams but it is difficult to know just how much to read into anything that happened in this compacted, lockout-shortened season as teams dealt with injuries and juggled their lineups for various reasons.

The Heat have the three best players in this series--likely 2012 MVP LeBron James, likely All-NBA selection Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who has made the All-Star team for seven straight seasons--but the Pacers probably have the next seven best players. In the NBA playoffs, superior talent generally trumps superior depth because the time off between games enables coaches to shorten their rotations accordingly. It will be interesting to see if Indiana can turn this series into a grind out, slow down, physical battle that will place a premium on strength, half court execution and depth or if Miami will be able to force a fast tempo and showcase the athletic skills of their three star players.

I expect that the Pacers will win two games but I don't think that they have quite enough talent to knock off the Heat, unless James decides to quit the way that he did against Boston in 2010 and against Dallas in the 2011 NBA Finals; the Pacers will surely be quite happy any time that James stations himself in the deep corner as an innocent bystander while someone else handles the ball. TNT's Charles Barkley said that if Indiana has a chance to close out the series in six then the Pacers will win but that if the series goes the distance than the Heat will win; that is a very reasonable assessment but for the Pacers to pull off the upset in that scenario they would have to win all three games at home and steal a game in Miami as well, a very tall order on both counts.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Granger, David West, Dwyane Wade, Indiana Pacers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 7:13 PM

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All-Star Reserves Headlined by Championship-Winning Veterans and Five Newcomers

The 2012 NBA All-Star Game will include an interesting mixture of the old and the new. On Thursday the league announced the seven All-Star reserve players for each conference. Finals MVPs Dirk Nowitzki (2011) and Paul Pierce (2008) are All-Stars for the 11th and 10th times respectively and Steve Nash is just the fourth player to earn All-Star recognition at age 38 or older, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. At the other end of the age/experience spectrum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert and Andre Iguodala each will be making their first trips to the midseason extravaganza.

The NBA head coaches select the All-Star reserves, voting only for players in their own conference and not being permitted to choose players from their own teams. The coaches ultimately selected 12 of the 14 players who I picked, differing only by giving Paul Pierce the nod over his teammate Rajon Rondo and taking Dirk Nowitzki instead of Danilo Gallinari (for what it's worth, my choices mirrored those of the coaches more so than the selections made by any of TNT's analysts). Even in a normal season, the All-Stars are chosen based on less than half a season's worth of work and in this lockout-shortened season the sample size is even smaller both in absolute and relative terms (i.e., the fans selected the All-Star starters based on fewer than 20 games played out of a 66 game schedule, while the coaches picked the reserves based on approximately 25 games played).

Chris Bosh is well deserving of his seventh All-Star selection; he has made the All-Star team more often than any other East reserve except for Pierce and more often than every East starter except for his Miami teammates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade (eight times each). Pau Gasol--who is posting the lowest scoring average of his career--is routinely called the "most skilled" power forward in the NBA, yet Bosh is every bit as skilled as Gasol and he has earned All-Star nods both as the number one option in Toronto and as part of an All-Star trio in Miami. At least one "stat guru" has already lost his mind complaining about Luol Deng's selection but the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the East (22-6), including an 18-3 mark when Deng starts. Deng's individual numbers are not gaudy but he contributes significantly at both ends of the court. Roy Hibbert was the obvious choice for backup center among the slim pickings at that position. Joe Johnson has quietly earned his sixth All-Star selection, one more than celebrated guards such as Pete Maravich or Reggie Miller achieved during their careers. Andre Iguodala is not having the best statistical season of his career but his all-around contributions have played a vitally important role in Philadelphia's success. Paul Pierce started the season slowly but he has played very well during Boston's recent surge; I would have taken Rajon Rondo but Pierce is not a terrible choice: based on his track record and how he is playing now he could very well be an All-NBA player once again by the end of the season. We know that Deron Williams is not one of Kenny Smith's proverbial "looters in a riot" because we have seen Williams put up big numbers for playoff teams in Utah; that said, the struggles of Williams' New Jersey Nets and Carmelo Anthony's New York Knicks show that the grass is not always greener on the other side for star players who talk their way out of town.

There would have had to be an investigation if LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love did not make the All-Star team. Marc Gasol has played very well and has shown that his success is not dependent on playing alongside Zach Randolph; despite all of the talk about how skilled Marc's brother is, not enough people recognize that Marc may be the "most skilled" center in the league: Dwight Howard is clearly the best and most dominant center--by far--but Marc Gasol can shoot, post up, pass, rebound and defend. Steve Nash has much less talent around him than he did in previous years but his individual numbers are comparable to the ones he posted during his MVP seasons; he did not really deserve either of those MVPs--Shaquille O'Neal should have won in 2005 and Kobe Bryant should have won in 2006--but Nash does deserve to be a 2012 All-Star and his productivity at an advanced age is truly remarkable. Tony Parker has been the best player on a San Antonio Spurs team that has surprised most people (I picked them to finish third in the West). Russell Westbrook, despite all of the nitpicking about various aspects of his game, is one of the top 10 players in the league. Dirk Nowitzki nabbed the spot that I would have given to Danilo Gallinari. I am not sure about the timing of the voting so I don't know if Gallinari's injury--and likely unavailability for the All-Star Game--hurt his cause. I have mixed feelings about the Nowitzki selection; it is obvious that based on the first 20 or so games of the season Nowitzki should not have been chosen but it is also obvious that last June he outplayed Miami's All-Star trio when the stakes were the highest and it is a safe bet that by the end of the season Nowitzki will once again merit inclusion on the All-NBA team. Guys like Danilo Gallinari and Rudy Gay clearly are not better players than Dirk Nowitzki and if you really look at the numbers they have only marginally outperformed Nowitzki thus far so I can understand why the coaches gave Nowitzki the benefit of the doubt; this is a tough break for some West forwards who have yet to make the team but it should inspire those guys to play even better the rest of the way and then carry that momentum into the playoffs and next season so that the voters--fans and/or coaches--simply cannot leave them off of the team next time.

Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett--former champions and regular season MVPs who have earned 13 and 14 All-Star selections respectively--both failed to make the cut and neither is likely to be chosen even if it becomes necessary to replace players due to injury. They are both still solid contributors on good teams--Duncan's San Antonio Spurs currently have the second best record in the West, while Garnett's Boston Celtics have bounced back from a slow start to currently rank seventh in the East--but neither is performing at an All-Star level this season.

Labels: Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, NBA All-Star Game, Roy Hibbert, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 5:09 AM

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Lakers Pound Pacers in Paint, Roll to 118-96 Win

Andrew Bynum had a strong double double (27 points on 12-14 field goal shooting plus 12 rebounds) and Kobe Bryant authored one of his best all-around performances of this season (29 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, nine rebounds, a game-high tying seven assists and just one turnover) as the visiting L.A. Lakers routed the Indiana Pacers, 118-96. Two other Lakers also had double doubles--Pau Gasol contributed 21 points and 13 rebounds, while Lamar Odom added 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds off of the bench--as the Lakers clobbered the Pacers 62-42 on the boards and outscored them 54-32 in the paint. Second string center Roy Hibbert led the outmatched Pacers with 21 points, while starting center Troy Murphy had a solid 18 points and five rebounds, but the Lakers overwhelmed the Pacers not with a 1-2 punch but with a 1-2-3-4 punch: their three bigs landed crushing body blows, while Bryant's all-purpose, inside-outside excellence delivered the knockout.

The Pacers had some success recently with a small lineup and Coach Jim O'Brien apparently felt that it would be futile to try to match up man for man with the Lakers so O'Brien opened the game with four perimeter players flanking center Troy Murphy; Danny Granger--normally a small forward--guarded power forward/center Pau Gasol, while Murphy tangled with Bynum. Granger, a first-time All-Star in 2009, recently returned to action after being injured, and he finished with just 14 points, five assists and three rebounds. After the game, Lakers' Coach Phil Jackson said that Granger seemed to be "limited physically," a quite apt description. Jackson seemed genuinely puzzled by O'Brien's starting five, noting that Murphy is several inches shorter and at least 30 pounds lighter than Bynum; Jackson said--without a hint of the sarcasm that sometimes flavors his comments--"I don't know if Jim was baiting us by starting Murphy at center."

The Lakers raced to an 18-8 lead less than five minutes into the game, with Bynum scoring 10 of those points from close range and Bryant adding six points on one drive and two jump shots. Murphy countered with three straight field goals--including a three pointer--and the Pacers valiantly battled back to pull within 31-29 by the end of the opening stanza. Bryant and Bynum each shot 5-5 from the field in the first quarter but Gasol shot just 2-8.

The Lakers' bench has not been a strength this season and, true to form, the L.A. reserves allowed the Pacers to briefly build a four point lead early in the second quarter, though the Lakers rallied to tie the game at 46 before Bryant returned to the fray at the 5:06 mark; overall, that is not a bad stint for the second stringers, because the game did not get out of hand while Bryant rested for nearly half of the quarter--that is still not as good as extending the lead, which one would hope that the reserves could do against a sub-.500 team, but just keeping things manageable is at least worth something, particularly in the second game of a back to back in the midst of an eight game road trip. After entering the game, Bryant promptly fed Gasol for an easy shot and the Lakers never trailed again, though the Pacers did tie the score a few more times. Odom broke the last tie with a buzzer-beating three pointer at the end of the half, giving the Lakers a 59-56 intermission edge. Bynum already had 22 points on 10-12 shooting, while Bryant's halftime line read 10 points, four rebounds and three assists.

After Bynum softened up the Pacers in the first half, Bryant hit them with combinations in the third quarter, leading both teams in scoring (13 points), rebounds (five) and assists (three). That one man assault forged a 92-78 lead for the Lakers but for good measure Jackson left Bryant in the game to start the fourth quarter. The Pacers chipped away a bit and Jackson decided to give Bryant a quick mid-quarter rest to keep him fresh for the stretch run. After Bryant came back in he drew a foul on Dahntay Jones--who guarded Bryant in last year's Western Conference Finals as a member of the Denver Nuggets--and when Bryant went to the free throw line the Indiana crowd serenaded him with "MVP" chants, which had to be a grating sound to Pacers President Larry Bird as he sat in his usual baseline perch. Apparently embarrassed by such overt displays of love for a visiting player, some Indiana fans responded by booing Bryant but, at best, the boos and "MVP" chants turned out to be roughly equal in volume during Bryant's second free throw attempt. Bryant split the pair to put the Lakers up 105-89 and he quickly removed any remaining doubts about the game's outcome by draining a three pointer and then lobbing an outlet pass to Gasol for a layup that turned into a three point play after a foul by Luther Head. Bryant concluded his night with a resounding left handed block of a Hibbert layup attempt; Bryant left the game during the ensuing stoppage of play and received a resounding standing ovation from the Indiana fans. Officially, the attendance for this game was listed as a sellout crowd of 18,165, but if all of the tickets were sold they certainly were not all used because there were plenty of empty seats.

Hibbert was pretty much the lone bright spot for Indiana in this game. Hibbert is averaging 11.1 ppg and 5.8 rpg this season, though he has shown occasional flashes of brilliance, including an Indiana victory over the Orlando Magic in which Hibbert completely outplayed Dwight Howard, scoring 26 points, grabbing eight rebounds and blocking four shots while Howard managed just 11 points on 2-6 field goal shooting, though Howard did snare 15 rebounds. After the game, I asked Jackson, "What were your impressions of Roy Hibbert?" Jackson answered, "He played hard. I thought that he played real hard in the post and he did a good job in the first half. Things didn't work out as well in the second but he had a good first half." I followed up by asking Jackson what adjustments the Lakers made regarding Hibbert in the second half and Jackson said, "We came back on him off of cutters a little bit to try to destroy his timing and not give him as much room." Hibbert actually shot 5-9 from the field in each half, so I am not sure if the Lakers' adjustments really affected Hibbert all that much, though Jackson can be forgiven for thinking otherwise just moments after such a blowout, especially because the freshest memory of Hibbert at that point was of Bryant swatting his shot out of bounds. Hibbert's game is eccentric: he has a big body and a soft shooting touch near the hoop but his moves are so mechanical and stilted that his lumbering gait reminds me of Anakin Skywalker taking his first halting steps after being entombed in the Darth Vader suit.

Overall, Jackson sees some chinks in his team's defensive armor. "Our middle is really soft. We're giving up a lot of penetration and whenever you give up that amount of penetration you are going to be hurt inside, outside and at the foul line." I asked him, "Does the problem in the middle of your defense have more to do with your guards giving up too much penetration by perimeter players or with how your big players are reacting?" Jackson replied, "It's a combination of both our guards keeping guys in front of them and our bigs reacting to help."

After Cleveland beat L.A. last Thursday, Bryant expressed concerns about the Lakers' hunger and their toughness. I asked Bryant if this kind of win could in any way address such questions but I barely got the words out of my mouth before he said, "No," and then nodded his head in agreement when I added that the real tests would come versus "higher level teams." Bryant concluded, "It's a step in the right direction. We have to continue to make strides, continue to improve, continue to get better, so that when the playoffs come around we're ready to go."

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

During Coach Jackson's pregame standup, I asked him, "After the New York game Kobe made a comment that Pau is so intelligent that sometimes it almost becomes a detriment--he is kind of thinking too much instead of just reacting. When you played you were considered a cerebral player. How did you balance that out when you played and how do you advise Pau in that regard about how to be an intelligent player but not to the point that he is thinking so much that he is not just reacting to the flow of the game?"

Jackson answered, "Well, there is a point to that, and I'll go back to (longtime assistant coach/Jackson confidant) Tex Winter again; he said that a lot of people comment about the Triangle Offense being a difficult offense to learn but that the players who probably had the most difficult time learning the offense when he coached in college were the guys who were studying chemical engineering, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering--the science guys who were really the brainiacs who had to think things through instead of reacting, because basketball is really a reacting sport. So, there is something to that. I'm not going to throw that on top of (Kobe's) comment (about Pau) but he's an intelligent ball player and a lot of times reacting is probably the most important thing in basketball."

The "triangle" that is most fascinating to me about the Lakers--even more so than Winter's innovative offense, a framework that has helped Jackson to win 10 NBA championships and should have long since resulted in Winter being enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame--is the one consisting of Jackson-Bryant-Gasol. Jackson is a minister's son who has embraced Eastern Asian and Native American philosophies and combined those world views with the teachings he learned as an NBA player under the tutelage of Hall of Fame Coach Red Holzman. Jackson was a star player in college but a role player in the pros, so he understands both sides of that equation. Bryant is the son of an NBA journeyman and he learned the game overseas from his dad and other pros, only to be (re)introduced to the sport from an American perspective after his family returned to the United States. Bryant honed his skill set to near perfection due to his relentless work ethic. Like Bryant, Gasol learned basketball in Europe and he has a finely tuned skill set but he has a different psychological makeup; one gets the inescapable impression that if Bryant misses 10 shots he thinks that means his next 10 shots are sure to go in, whereas even if Gasol makes eight of his first 10 shots he still might hesitate to shoot the 11th if he is not positive that it would be the "correct" play to do so. I think that Jackson and Bryant respect Gasol's skill set so much that they are able to look past Gasol's occasional moments of hesitation/indecisiveness in certain situations, because they perceive such reticence as a product of Gasol's intelligence as opposed to signs of what the general public or the media might term "softness." Gasol is not "soft" so much as he is deliberate; he is willing to rebound, he is willing to fight for post position, he is willing to play defense but sometimes he has to be goaded into doing those things or reminded that not only is he capable of doing so but that the Lakers need him to contribute in those areas. Jackson and Bryant understand that even though Gasol may not have the "killer" mentality of a Bryant or a Michael Jordan he is still valuable because of his versatile skill set and because Gasol truly wants to maximize his potential. While it is true that it has been a blessing for Bryant to be paired with a skilled big man like Gasol it is just as true that it has been a blessing for Gasol to have a coach like Jackson and a teammate like Bryant to push Gasol to his limits without stifling or demeaning his intelligence.

***

The 1992 U.S. Olympic Basketball Team--forever known as "The Dream Team"--won the gold medal in Gasol's hometown, Barcelona. After the game, I spoke with Gasol about that team and its impact on him.

Friedman: "Since there is talk about the Dream Team being inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame this year, I am interested to know what kind of effect the Dream Team had on your development as a basketball player?"

Gasol: "I was 12 years old at the time. The Dream Team caused a huge impact not only in Barcelona where the Olympics were played but I think all over the world. It was probably the greatest team ever put together, with great, great players. It was inspiring. It was inspiring for me as a kid because it was so much fun to watch. They dominated every single game against the best teams in Europe at the time--Lithuania and Croatia were very, very powerful but still they got beaten pretty badly."

Friedman: "Did that team give you the inspiration to become a professional basketball player? Did the thought come into your mind around that time or because of that?"

Gasol: "It didn't go that far but it just made me want to play more basketball. I had already played for a few years by that time, so it made me really want to play more and kind of imitate them because they were kind of like basketball gods for me and for lots of kids. It was inspiring--definitely inspiring."

I had planned to follow up that line of questioning by asking for Gasol's take about Bryant's comment regarding Gasol's intelligence but Lakers' Director of Public Relations John Black indicated that Gasol could not answer any more questions because Gasol needed to finish changing so that the Lakers could board their bus (Gasol was still wearing his uniform shorts, with his knees wrapped in ice and both ankles soaking in cold water); Gasol sheepishly shrugged regarding how long it takes him to do his postgame routine and said to me with a smile, "I'm getting old now."

***

In the early portion of this season, Bryant played some of the most efficient basketball of his entire career. With Gasol out of action due to a hamstring injury, Bryant camped out on the low block and for a while he led the league in points in the paint, showing off the array of post moves that he learned from Hakeem Olajuwon last summer. Bryant averaged 29.9 ppg on .506 field goal shooting in November and scored 31.3 ppg on .479 field goal shooting in December.

Bryant suffered an avulsion fracture (a specific kind of broken bone when a ligament or tendon is torn so violently that it rips a piece of bone away from the bone's surface, as opposed to a more conventional break that happens when a bone is cracked without ligament damage) to his right index finger during the Lakers' 104-92 win over Minnesota on December 11. Bryant scored just 16 points on 7-24 shooting (.292) in a 102-94 road loss versus Utah the day after injuring the finger but then he seemed to make some kind of adjustment and he shot .492 from the field in the remaining nine games in December.

Bryant has banged the injured finger several times and he has experimented with various types of wraps/protective devices, trying to find the right balance between bracing the mangled digit while also allowing for maximum functionality. While Bryant tried to figure out how to deal with that problem he faced an additional challenge in the form of back spasms. Bryant's efficiency has plummeted recently. Bryant averaged 23.6 ppg on .398 field goal shooting in the first 14 games in January (i.e., not including the game versus the Pacers). His rebounding and steals numbers have also declined dramatically--though he did snare a career-high 16 boards on January 24 versus Toronto--and his free throw shooting has dropped from over .850 in November/December to just .774 in January's first 14 games.

How significant are those numbers? The last time Bryant shot below .400 from the field in a month during which he played at least eight games is December 2004 (.391 in 12 games). The last time Bryant shot below .800 from the free throw line in a month during which he played at least eight games is December 2005 (.794 in 16 games). After the game, I asked Bryant about this:

Friedman: "During the past couple games you have shot well but this month you are shooting the worst percentage that you have shot in several years. Have you recently made some kind of adjustment with your finger or your grip on the ball? What are you doing differently the past couple games?"

Bryant: "I just got healthier. That's all."

Friedman: "Has the swelling gone down so that you have more mobility in the finger?"

Bryant: "My back feels great. I haven't gotten hit on the finger (recently), haven't had any major setbacks, so I just feel healthier."

Friedman: "Was the back affecting your shot even more than the finger?"

Bryant: "Oh, sure. When you have back spasms it's tough to walk. I feel better."

After the rest of the media horde drifted away from Kobe Bryant as his postgame standup ended, Bryant greeted me by goodnaturedly clapping me on my left shoulder with his right hand and I then had the opportunity to speak with him one on one. I asked him again if he really felt that the biggest problem for him recently had been the back spasms and not the finger and Bryant unhesitatingly insisted that the back had been the main hindrance. He emphasized something that he had told another writer moments earlier, namely that as the back spasms healed Bryant's "bounce" had returned and his legs felt lively again. I told Bryant that I got a good look at his finger after the Cleveland game and that I thought it looked terrible--swollen from the base to nearly the tip with a nasty discoloration streaking through the middle--and he agreed with me but said that it has healed a lot in the past few days. Bryant told me that he ices the finger daily after practicing.

I asked Bryant if he is surprised that no one has really taken an intentional shot at his finger and I mentioned that during a recent NBA TV broadcast Chris Webber had expressed surprise about this. Bryant immediately laughed heartily, declared that when Webber played he had never done anything like that and Bryant added with a big smile, "C. Webb is just talking (crap)--and you can tell him I said that!" I clarified that Webber had not said this to me personally but rather had stated it on the air but Bryant found the idea of Webber making such a statement in any context to be very humorous. Bryant clearly is not concerned that anyone is going to target his finger for "special treatment."

I said to Bryant that I don't believe that he can bend that finger due to how swollen it is and Bryant conceded that this is true. He had removed the big, black protective wrap that he dons during games but the finger was still covered with some white gauze (even with that covering I noticed that the finger looks less swollen now than it did after the Cavs game). Bryant showed me how much flexibility the finger currently has: he can barely bend it enough to form the letter "C." One credible skill that I possess as a basketball player is shooting ability and I can't imagine shooting a basketball accurately if my index finger were in that condition, so I looked Bryant dead in the eye and asked, "How are you able to shoot the ball now? Are you just resting it against the other four fingers and basically flinging it?" Bryant nodded in agreement and then demonstrated, raising his hand as if he were about to shoot an imaginary ball and indicating that he has altered his grip so that most of the weight of the ball is borne by the other fingers; he then flicks his fingers toward the hoop and gets by with the limited range of motion his index finger will permit.

It will be interesting to watch what happens during the rest of the Lakers' road trip--particularly the stop in Boston--but if Bryant is correct that his back spasms caused his January slump then we are about to see his efficiency return to its normal levels now that his back is OK and assuming that he does not suffer a setback with his finger. It would be great for the league to see a reasonably healthy Bryant and his Lakers battle LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers for the best record in the NBA--the two teams are essentially in a dead heat now, so the next three months could provide some great drama.

Labels: Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Pau Gasol, Phil Jackson, Roy Hibbert

posted by David Friedman @ 8:46 AM

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