Bryant Returns to Action, Rescues Lackluster Lakers
Kobe Bryant returned to action after a five game convalescence--six if you count the All-Star Game--and had the most bounce in his step and best accuracy in his shooting eye that he has displayed since a series of injuries began chipping away at his efficiency in early January. Bryant scored a game-high 32 points--including seven in the final 1:39, capped off by the game-winning three pointer with four seconds remaining--grabbed seven rebounds and led the L.A. Lakers with six assists, three steals and two blocked shots in a 99-98 road win versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Bryant shot 13-19 from the field, including 3-4 from three point range, and showed no ill effects from either the sprained left ankle that had finally ended his impressive consecutive games played streak or the assorted other ailments (broken right index finger, back spasms) that have hindered him for the past several weeks. Pau Gasol contributed 22 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and two blocked shots but Bryant did not receive much help from his other teammates: Andrew Bynum scored 15 points but had just four rebounds, while Ron Artest's "bump and run" defense versus Rudy Gay (who scored 17 points on 7-17 field goal shooting) hardly compensated for his dreadful 1-9 field goal shooting (Artest finished with three points). Derek Fisher played solidly (10 points, 3-5 field goal shooting in 31 minutes) but Lamar Odom once again delivered a triple single: five points on 2-6 field goal shooting, three rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes of basketball/sleepwalking. With all of the "advanced statistics" that now exist I wonder if anyone has tracked which player has accumulated the most coast to coast drives ending in an offensive foul and/or some other form of turnover; I suspect that Odom ranks among the league leaders in this category on a per minute basis over the past few years.
O.J. Mayo led the Grizzlies with 25 points on 9-15 field goal shooting, while Zach Randolph added another nice boxscore line to his season-long redemption story, producing 20 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, three assists, four steals and three blocked shots. Marc Gasol--Pau's younger brother--had eight points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. So many people made jokes about how the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol for nothing but the Lakers shipped Marc Gasol to Memphis as part of that deal and Marc Gasol is already an All-Star caliber player (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, .577 field goal shooting this season) at just 25 years of age; that transaction may end up looking a lot less lopsided than, say, the Cleveland Cavaliers getting Antawn Jamison for a late first round draft pick (assuming--and this is very important--that the Cavs are able to re-sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas). The Grizzlies shed Pau Gasol's salary and rebuilt their team around a nice corps of young players, a very sensible course of action once they concluded that they would never win a championship with Pau Gasol as their top player. In contrast, the Cavs obtained two-time All-Star Jamison (remember that Pau Gasol was a one-time All-Star when he came to the Lakers) while giving up a draft pick who may not even turn out to be a productive NBA player.
The Grizzlies had lost six of their previous eight games and trailed 27-16 at the end of the first quarter but the Lakers played dreadfully in the second and third quarters, throwing the ball away carelessly, missing defensive assignments and looking completely disinterested at times. The Lakers trailed 87-82 with 7:59 remaining in the fourth quarter when Bryant reentered the game after his customary brief rest. Bryant's turnaround jumper at the 5:22 mark trimmed Memphis' lead to 91-89 but then the Lakers inexplicably went three minutes without Bryant taking a shot: during that time, Pau Gasol shot 1-4 from the free throw line, Fisher whiffed on two free throw attempts and Ron Artest nearly shattered the backboard with a wide left brick of a three point attempt that looked like it had been fired by a malfunctioning RPG launcher. Then Bryant hit a jumper to make the score 95-92 Memphis with 2:22 remaining but after Rudy Gay split a pair of free throws Odom drove baseline and threw the ball away. Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins received a technical foul after an offensive foul call against Marc Gasol and Bryant drained the resulting free throw to make it a one possession game, 96-93 Memphis. The teams traded misses before Bryant's three pointer tied the score at 96. Gay's jumper put the Grizzlies back on top and after Pau Gasol missed a short jumper Mayo had an opportunity to ice the game at the free throw line but he missed both attempts. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson drew up a slick inbounds play that initially went away from Bryant to get the defense out of position before ultimately resulting in Bryant draining a wide open three pointer. That proved to be Bryant's sixth game-winning shot of the season after Mayo's last second jumper missed the mark.
Just prior to the Lakers going 4-1 sans Bryant, I wrote about some
NBA Truths. The Lakers' record during Bryant's brief absence would seem to bolster the case for those who insist that the Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA but I remain skeptical: should we believe what we have seen over the course of a large number of games during the past two years or should we be swayed by what we saw in a five game sample? That is the question concerning Kobe Bryant's "supporting cast." The overall pattern that we have seen with the Lakers is pretty clear: in 2007-08 and the early part of 2008-09, the Lakers
had solid depth but were not as talented as a team like the Boston Celtics that had three Hall of Famers (plus, it turns out, a future All-Star point guard) in their starting lineup. Since that time, the Lakers' depth has been depleted by the loss of Ronny Turiaf and Vladimir Radmanovic (productive role players whose roster spots are now filled by Josh Powell and Adam Morrison) plus the declining effectiveness of Luke Walton (who has been hampered by injuries), Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic. The Lakers are more talented now--their regular starting lineup of Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Andrew Bynum (who has been healthy for the most part this season, in contrast to 2007-08 and 2008-09), Pau Gasol and Ron Artest has a nice mix of size, length, shooting skill, postup options and playmaking--but anyone who says that they are a deep team simply has not been paying attention.
So what should we make of the Lakers' 4-1 record during Bryant's absence? The first and most important point is that it cannot be emphasized enough that this was a small sample size of games; the dreadful New York Knicks had a five game stretch this season during which they went 4-1: does that prove anything other than in a long NBA season a lot of anomalous events can happen? The second point is that Gasol and Odom had monster rebounding efforts during Bryant's absence; there is no doubt that in certain matchup situations the Lakers enjoy advantages due to their frontcourt length but by the same token we have seen many instances of Odom inexplicably disappearing and/or Gasol reacting timidly when faced with big, strong, aggressive players like Shaquille O'Neal or Kendrick Perkins. The third point is somewhat speculative; normally I try to stick to the facts but in this case I am going to propose a theory: the Lakers' "supporting cast" felt inspired to prove a point when Bryant was out and thus played with more energy and aggression than they typically do but now that Bryant is back they will once again revert to being sporadically productive and to depending on Bryant to save the day for them. The "experimental test" for my theory will be to examine how well the other Lakers play during the rest of the season and the playoffs now that Bryant has returned; this has been a major issue for the Lakers this season: after the Lakers' second loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bryant lamented that his teammates
did not play with the same hunger that the Cavaliers did.
There is nothing about the way that Bryant played on Tuesday night that justifies or explains the lack of support that he received from most of his teammates; Bryant did not hog the ball, he did not take bad shots and he did an excellent job of drawing double teams to create easy scoring opportunities for others, while on defense he played with great energy and tenacity. There is no reason for his teammates to look like they are sleepwalking--unless those teammates feel like they proved some kind of grand point when Bryant was out of action and they are now content to simply try to ride his coattails down the stretch.
Labels: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, O.J. Mayo, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 2:51 AM
This Year RoY Should be Spelled R-O-S-E
No rookie averaged 20 ppg or made the All-Star team this season but Derrick Rose has been consistently productive from day one and his Chicago Bulls are in contention for a playoff berth. Point guard is generally considered to be the toughest position for a young NBA player to learn, which makes Rose's smooth transition to the NBA even more impressive.Here is an analysis of the performances of this year's top rookies:It is very difficult for a rookie to make an impact in the NBA, either individually or in terms of helping his team to substantially improve. Only two rookies have made the All-Star team since 1998, Tim Duncan (1998) and Yao Ming (2003). Since 2000, only four rookies have averaged at least 20 ppg (Elton Brand, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant). The last Rookie of the Year whose team made the playoffs is Amare Stoudemire (2003), who was a distant third in scoring (13.5 ppg) for the Phoenix Suns.
This season has not broken any of those patterns: no rookie made the All-Star team and no rookie is averaging 20 ppg. We cannot yet say whether or not the Rookie of the Year will play in the playoffs, because we do not know who the Rookie of the Year will be nor do we know the final playoff seedings. However, the fact that only one of the top Rookie of the Year candidates has his team in contention for a playoff berth certainly speaks in his favor; Derrick Rose has responded very well to the pressure of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and playing for his hometown team, the Chicago Bulls, who currently hold a 1.5 game lead over Charlotte for the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff berth. Rose is averaging 16.6 ppg, 6.2 apg and 3.9 rpg while putting up very solid shooting numbers from the field (.470) and the free-throw line (.791). His three-point shooting percentage is terrible (.235) but he is attempting less than one three-pointer per game, so he understands that he should not be firing away from long distance until he improves his accuracy.
Rose ranks 10th in the NBA in minutes played, which is a very impressive statistic for a young point guard: that shows that he has not hit the "rookie wall" mentally or physically and that his coach trusts him to be the team's leader at all times. Rose ranks first among all rookies in assists and second in scoring. He has been a very consistent performer, both in terms of his month to month production and by posting nearly identical scoring, rebounding and assist averages at home and on the road. Point guard is generally considered to be the toughest position for a young NBA player to learn but Rose has immediately emerged as a very solid contributor for a Bulls team that -- with six games remaining -- has already won three more games than they did last season.
O.J. Mayo averaged 23.1 ppg on .480 field goal shooting in November to unofficially take the early lead in the Rookie of the Year race but his numbers have dropped off dramatically since that time; in March he scored 14.7 ppg on .430 field goal shooting. Mayo is not a great rebounder, passer or defender, so his value mainly consists of how much -- and how efficiently -- he scores. While some people touted him as the most "NBA ready" rookie, I was a little less optimistic after I saw him play in the Summer League, when I offered this early assessment: "Mayo has the tools to be a good NBA scorer but it remains to be seen if he will be an impact player overall -- let alone a superstar -- or if he will primarily be a guy who, as the saying goes, "gets buckets.'" Mayo still leads all rookies in scoring (18.3 ppg) and his three point and free throw percentages (.375 and .876 respectively) are good but the Memphis Grizzlies are just as terrible this year with him as they were last year without him.
When Kevin McHale traded Mayo's draft rights as part of a deal to acquire Kevin Love, some critics made the predictable jokes referring to McHale's track record as Minnesota's General Manager and suggested that he had made a boneheaded move. It is unfortunate that snide comments are passed off as intelligent basketball analysis but the problem is that too many of the so-called experts do not have the foggiest idea about how to watch a player and actually form an intelligent opinion about whether or not he can play, so they shift the issue to a tired, old familiar storyline. I am not going to defend McHale's record because it has nothing to do with the real issue in this context, which is whether or not Love can play.
After I watched Love play in the Summer League, I wrote, "Regardless of the superficial impression that Love's movement creates, he knows how to play the game. He sets screens, makes the correct passes and goes to the glass aggressively at both ends of the court. Love seems to intuitively understand where he is supposed to go, like in one sequence when (teammate Pooh) Jeter drove, drew the defense and Love faded to the perimeter a la Bill Laimbeer, catching a pass and without hesitation drilling a jumper from just behind the college three-point line...In his first NBA action, Love displayed better than advertised mobility, willingness to attack the glass at both ends of the court and a good understanding of how to play offensively in terms of setting screens, making passes and operating in the paint. He made some 'rookie mistakes,' particularly defensively, but most of the things that he did wrong are correctable errors as opposed to fundamental problems with his game/skill set."
Love has surprised a lot of people who did not pay attention to the skill set that he displayed during the Summer League and he is averaging 11.2 ppg and 9.0 rpg (first among rookies, 10th in the league) while shooting .466 from the field and .787 from the free throw line. Love has really played well since the All-Star break, averaging 14.9 ppg and 9.5 rpg while increasing his shooting percentages to .487 and .803 respectively.
Mayo is arguably not even the best rookie on his own team: Marc Gasol is averaging 11.7 ppg (seventh among rookies) and 7.4 rpg (third among rookies) while shooting .532 from the field. While Mayo has been fading fast, Gasol has increased his production across the board since the All-Star break (13.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, .552 field goal shooting).
Brook Lopez has provided a solid inside presence for a New Jersey team that stayed on the fringes of the battle for the eighth playoff spot in the East until recently sliding backwards in the standings. He is averaging 12.9 ppg (sixth among rookies) and 7.9 rpg (second among rookies) while shooting .528 from the field. He ranks 10th in the NBA in total offensive rebounds and ninth in the league in blocked shots.
Two explosive rookie guards have emerged in the latter portion of the season. Eric Gordon of the L.A. Clippers is averaging 18.8 ppg on .458 field goal shooting since the All-Star break. Overall, though, Gordon is scoring 15.7 ppg (tied for third among rookies) for a team that has the second worst winning percentage in the West and the worst winning percentage for the franchise since 1999-00 -- remember, we're talking about the Clippers here! That just does not look like a Rookie of the Year resume, particularly in contrast to what Rose has accomplished.
The Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook is averaging 17.3 ppg since the All-Star break but he is only shooting .395 from the field during that time. For the season, he is averaging 15.7 ppg (tied with Gordon for third among rookies) and 5.1 apg (second among rookies) for a team that started slowly but now has a marginally better winning percentage than last year.
Mayo's early scoring exploits probably left a lingering impression that will garner him some Rookie of the Year votes but Rose is the most deserving candidate. It will be interesting to see if the voters are savvy enough to appreciate the non-flashy but quite substantive contributions being made by Gasol, Love and Lopez.
Labels: Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 6:45 AM
O.J. Mayo: Early Scouting Report
The L.A. Lakers improved to 1-1 in Vegas Summer League play with an 85-76 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday night. The Grizzlies are now 2-1. Of course, team records are meaningless during the summer: what counts are the player development and player evaluations that are going on as teams get a first look at some of this year's draft picks and decide which players will fill out their rosters once the regular season begins.
Rookie O.J. Mayo has been taking the shots and calling the shots for Memphis during the Vegas Summer League, leading the Grizzlies in scoring (18.7 ppg), field goal attempts (42) and turnovers (18). He is shooting well from all three ranges (.476 FG%, .615 3FG%, .889 FT%) but he has just six assists in three games, ranking third on the team behind Javaris Crittenton and Mike Conley. Only so much can be read into summer league statistics; after all, there is a no foul out rule and games last for just 40 minutes. The level of competition is what I would call "D-Leagueish," featuring a large number of players who will not be playing regularly in the NBA this season. In other words, dominating the summer league statistically does not necessarily translate into dominating the NBA come November--nor does struggling in the summer league automatically spell doom, because the young players are adjusting to playing under NBA coaching and officiating for the first time.
With those caveats out of the way, here is a breakdown of the Memphis-L.A. game, focusing primarily on what Mayo did and did not do, since he may be the only player on the court who will get substantial NBA minutes this season. Mayo finished with 15 points on 6-13 field goal shooting (including 3-5 from three point range), two rebounds, zero assists and six turnovers. He also committed six fouls in 24:46.
Mayo's first field goal attempt was a right corner three pointer over the tight defense of Coby Karl, who played limited minutes for the Lakers last year. Mayo launched that contested shot with 17 seconds remaining on the shot clock and it bounced hard off of the front of the rim. The Grizzlies controlled the offensive rebound, Crittenton collapsed the defense with dribble penetration and kicked to Mayo, who fired again from almost exactly the same spot. This time, though, he was more open as Karl arrived too late and the shot nestled through the twine for Memphis' first points. NBA TV analyst Steve Jones noted, "Mayo is not deterred by misses. He really believes that he has the complete package and he will continue to attack."
On the next possession, Mayo took a bad angle when closing out on Karl and was unable to avoid fouling him. The two players slapped hands and exchanged what seemed to be, as NBA TV's Rick Kamla put it, "pleasant words." After a Lakers' basket, Mayo pushed the ball up the court, fed fellow rookie Darrell Arthur in the post and cut through the lane so that Arthur could go one on one. Arthur read the defense, then took a dribble and nailed a turnaround jumper. Since Mayo had no assists he obviously did not get one on that play--nor should he have gotten one--but during playoff games that I charted last year Chris Paul regularly was awarded assists on similar shots by David West.
Mayo seems to be an attentive defender and he displayed some aggressiveness on the glass when he pulled down a defensive rebound, pushed the ball up the court and then passed ahead to Malik Badiane, whose weak layup attempt was swatted away, denying Mayo a potential assist.
However, Mayo--despite his protestations to the contrary--does not seem to be a point guard. He has a scorer's mentality. When he caught the ball in a top of the key isolation versus Karl he held the ball for three seconds and the team's off of the ball movement slowed to a crawl. Then Mayo took one dribble and fired a low percentage jumper with 13 seconds left on the shot clock. Karl easily blocked the shot, the Lakers controlled the ball and after a bit of a misadventure Karl got the ball back and lobbed a nice pass to Cedric Bozeman for a layup.
When Mayo passed the ball, the results were mixed, though some of the problems were clearly not his fault, such as when players bobbled the ball or missed shots. Towards the end of the first quarter, Mayo dribbled the ball up court in transition and forced a lookaway bullet pass to Badiane. Karl easily anticipated the play and stole the ball. Later, Mayo made a nice pass to P.J. Tucker after Tucker slipped a screen and both defenders trapped Mayo but Tucker fumbled the ball and eventually double dribbled.
Mostly, though, Mayo looked for his own shot and that is not entirely a bad thing because he is a good shooter. With just over a minute left in the first quarter, Mayo pushed the ball up the court, veered over to the left wing and shot a midrange jumper in a four on four fast break. The ball danced around the rim softly and then went through the net. A point guard would probably have either gone all the way to the hoop or else ran some screen/roll action to create a shot for a teammate but Mayo saw an opportunity to score and took advantage of it. Mayo came off of a screen/roll play with 36 seconds left looking for his shot all the way but a lane violation erased the midrange jumper that he stuck from the left wing. On the last possession of the quarter, the Grizzlies cleared out for Mayo but then sent David Simon to the top of the key to set a screen. Mayo went toward the screen at first but then quickly reversed direction, dribbled the ball between his legs and missed a long two point jumper. Although Mayo is shooting a good percentage from the field, he settles for a lot of jumpers instead of using his athletic ability to drive to the hoop and create shots and free throw opportunities for himself and his teammates. The Lakers led 21-20 after the first quarter. Mayo and Conley topped Memphis with five points each.
On the first possession of the second quarter, Memphis ran a left wing clear out for Mayo and he made a strong drive to the basket but lost the ball out of bounds. On the next possession, Mayo missed an open three pointer when the ball was reversed to him as the trailer in transition. Later, P.J. Tucker slipped a screen for Mayo and was open when he cut to the hoop, but Mayo missed him and instead drove into the lane, made a jump stop and lost control of the ball before he could take a shot. At the 3:22 mark, Mayo claimed a defensive rebound, pushed the ball up the court and fed Badiane, who was fouled as he attempted to dunk the ball. That was probably Mayo's best pass of the game.
Kamla rightly noted that Mayo was "quiet" for most of the first half. From what I've seen of Mayo, he obviously "looks" like an NBA player--he has decent size (listed at 6-5, 200, though Jones called him a bit undersized for a shooting guard, saying that he seems to be closer to 6-3) plus good quickness and jumping ability and he carries himself with an air of confidence. However, I don't see him as some kind of superstar in the making--I still cannot fathom why anyone at any time ever compared him to LeBron James--but rather potentially a very solid NBA shooting guard who will be a productive scorer and will be capable of being a decent defender if he so chooses.
The Lakers closed the first half with more determination and aggressiveness than the Grizzlies and L.A. enjoyed a 40-30 halftime lead. "The Grizzlies have not responded," Jones said, adding that Conley should have pushed the ball more to create easier scoring opportunities because the Grizzlies are a young team that struggles a bit with precise execution in the half court set. Conley led Memphis with six first half points, while Mayo had five and Crittenton added four.
"When you come into the NBA with as much fanfare as O.J. Mayo, people expect great performances all the time. He's still learning and that's what you have to remember," Jones noted as the second half began. Mayo drained a three pointer off of a feed from Crittenton to cut the Lakers' lead to 42-36. Then, he took his eyes off of the ball and fumbled a pass out of bounds. After Badiane set a screen for Mayo, both defenders went to Mayo, who missed Badiane cutting to the hoop, pump faked and misfired on a wild jumper. Mayo's first thought coming off of a screen/roll set is definitely to look for his own shot--usually a midrange jumper--and not to pass to the roller or reverse the ball to the other side of the court. I understand that guys like Badiane and Tucker may not even be in the NBA this season and that Mayo wants to show what he can do offensively but it will be interesting to see if he becomes more apt to pass the ball during the regular season. The next time Memphis ran a screen/roll for Mayo he passed to Conley, who missed a long jumper.
Mayo caught the ball on the left wing isolated against Karl, blew right past him after an excellent fake and scored a sweet reverse layup, his best move of the night. Kamla went completely overboard, declaring, "You can't do that move unless you are a superstar-type player." That is so wrong--there are plenty of guys who are athletic enough to make one very nice reverse layup in summer league play; a superstar is a guy who is extremely productive on a nightly basis. NBA TV replayed the shot about a million times. Hey, it was a great shot and it was fun to watch but there is much more to becoming a great player than simply having the ability to make one great summer league shot. Kamla about had a heart attack waxing poetic about this play yet he never said one word during the game about how poorly suited Mayo seems to be to play point guard or about Mayo's questionable shot selection. Even though Mayo's shots went in at a decent rate in this particular summer league game that does not mean that they were (1) good shots or (2) shots that he will consistently make at that rate in the regular season.
Mayo has the tools to be a good NBA scorer but it remains to be seen if he will be an impact player overall--let alone a superstar--or if he will primarily be a guy who, as the saying goes, "gets buckets." Karl responded on the next possession by taking the ball right at Mayo and drawing a foul--less spectacular but no less effective, as Karl made both free throws. Mayo answered by coming off of a screen/roll action and again eschewing the pass to launch an off balance jumper over two defenders. Summer league is one thing but veteran big men are not going to much fancy setting screens for Mayo if the end result is almost always Mayo jacking up a shot regardless of how the play is defended.
Mayo seemed to focus more and more on his own offense as the game went on, at one point dribbling between his legs multiple times while everyone else stood around. He eventually made a jumper over Karl's outstretched arm. Keep in mind that Karl is not even a rotation player in the NBA, so proving your one on one chops versus him has nothing to do with establishing yourself as a superstar in the making. Mayo then wasted most of a possession with fancy dribbling but was unable to free himself for a shot--he never looked to create anything for a teammate--and he finally simply handed the ball to Conley, who eventually took a long jumper. "That's a lot of East-West dribbling by Conley and Mayo when you need to be going North-South...It's great to dance with the ball but if you don't go anywhere you've accomplished nothing," Jones observed. Ball movement again stopped when Mayo received the ball in the right corner, looked Karl in the eye and then made a three pointer right over him. That basket pulled Memphis to within nine points (54-45) but Mayo did not score the rest of the way. The Lakers led 62-51 at the end of the third quarter.
Mayo sat out the first couple minutes of the fourth quarter and Memphis trailed 66-52 when he returned to action. He pushed the ball up the court in transition and made a nice feed to Arthur, who tried to throw down a monster dunk but was rejected. Crittenton grabbed the rebound, made a layup and completed a three point play by making a free throw after he was fouled. The Grizzlies never really threatened down the stretch, though. A few possessions later, Mayo drove by Karl from the right baseline but missed a wild left handed shot in the lane. Talking about the difficult transition to the NBA for last year's Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant and for Mayo, Jones said, "There is a difference between being the stud in college and being the man in the NBA." Jones foresees Durant being a multiple-time All-Star and Hall of Fame level performer eventually but--despite the marked progress that Durant made in the second half of last season--I think that it is way too soon to make such pronouncements.
I don't know what the Grizzlies intend to do with their point guard situation but I'd put Mayo at shooting guard and let someone else run the offense, which is actually a look that Memphis used at times during this game: they started the game with a three guard front with Conley, Crittenton and Mayo, so Mayo was nominally the small forward even though he did a lot of ballhandling. I like Conley's passing ability but he is small, not a great shooter and perhaps a bit injury prone. Crittenton is raw but has good size (6-5, 200) and is talented. Conley and Crittenton should fight it out for the starting point guard spot.
Labels: Coby Karl, L.A. Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, O.J. Mayo
posted by David Friedman @ 7:30 PM
First Impressions of the 2008 NBA Draft
I am not a big "draftnik"--I much prefer to watch and analyze the players who are already in the NBA--but this year I filled out a
mock draft at Yardbarker. Frankly, for someone who does not obsess over the draft I think that I did pretty well, particularly in comparison to some people who spend so much more time researching this subject than I do. I got six of the first eight picks exactly correct and I transposed picks four and seven; I correctly identified nine of the 10 players who would be top 10 selections. In comparison,
USA TODAY's Chris Colston only got four of the first eight picks exactly correct,
ESPN's Chad Ford got six of the first eight picks exactly correct and
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress got the first eight picks exactly correct. Colston, Ford and Givony each matched my feat of correctly identifying nine of the top ten players. I missed out on ninth pick D.J. Augustin, as did Ford and Givony, while Colston left out sixth pick Danilo Gallinari.
I can't speak for the other guys, but I made my choices based on what I expected the teams to do, not necessarily who I think the ten best players are. I only saw Mayo a few times, so maybe I caught him on bad nights or maybe he will improve a lot but I think that he is overrated; he has the requisite skill set to have a solid NBA career, but I don't get what all of the fuss is about and I certainly cannot comprehend why he was ever compared to LeBron James, who is several inches taller, at least 40 pounds heavier and just a much better player. Minnesota took Mayo with the third overall selection but will apparently ship him to Memphis along with several veterans (i.e., dead weight contracts) in exchange for several players, most notably Kevin Love and Mike Miller. Kevin McHale has been much criticized--and for good reason--but turning Mayo and some bad contracts into a solid big man and an excellent three point shooter looks like a good deal.
Everyone understood that Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley would be the top two picks; I think that all of the last minute stuff about Miami supposedly souring on Beasley was just a smokescreen from the Heat to see what kind of offers they might receive for the second pick. Rose looks like the right choice considering that Chicago needs a point guard and that the rules changes over the past few years have placed a premium on having players who can attack off of the dribble. I like Beasley's game and I think that he is much more NBA ready at this point than Kevin Durant was last year. Beasley may not average as many points as Durant did--he will have to share the ball with Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion--but he will surely shoot a much better field goal percentage, grab more rebounds and have more of an impact on winning; Durant was just firing off shots left and right on a horrible team until the latter part of the season when his shot selection and field goal percentage improved.
ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy called Beasley a "Hall of Fame" talent. I respect Van Gundy a lot but I just can't go that far about a guy who has not played one minute yet in the NBA. Beasley is very talented but only the elite of the elite make it to the Hall of Fame, guys who deliver year after year. Jay Bilas said that Beasley has "great presence in traffic. This guy can operate in a crowd." I agree completely with that assessment and those two qualities are why I expect Beasley to be more efficient and effective than Durant has been so far.
Seattle's choice of Russell Westbrook with the number four pick surprised most people other than Givony; I had Westbrook going to the Clippers in the seventh spot and Seattle taking Gordon, flipping what actually transpired. I like Gordon's scoring ability, but going to the Clippers is like being sucked in by a black hole: we may never see Gordon again in this universe, let alone find out what he could have done with a different team. As for Seattle, Van Gundy said that the Sonics now face a "critical decision" regarding which positions Durant and Westbrook will play. Durant played shooting guard last year. Will Westbrook take over that spot, moving Durant to small forward, or will Westbrook play point guard? I'm not sure what Westbrook's best position is but I never agreed with putting Durant in the backcourt; he needs to bulk up a bit, toughen up on the boards and play small forward, because he does not belong on the outside chasing 6-5 shooting guards around screens.
Fran Fraschilla is ESPN's resident expert on international players. Most of his analysis sounded plausible, although it largely came from the same template: the foreign players who got drafted tend to be very young, under contract overseas and not quite ready to play in the NBA. Fraschilla offered a bit of unintentional comedy when he said that Alexis Ajinca was "unstoppable" in one on zero workouts. Hey, Fraschilla should check me out: I look like J.J. Redick at Duke in one on zero workouts, but there is a reason that Redick is riding the bench in Orlando and I am writing about other people being drafted instead of finishing out my last days as an NBA player, like my contemporaries Grant Hill and Shaquille O'Neal--in the NBA you have to be able to play one on one in the context of a five on five game, so "one on zero" skills have limited value.
The reason that I did not have Augustin in my top ten is that I expected teams to be wary of a guy who measured out at less than six feet tall. Yes, there have been some very nice players at that size but they are special guys, few and far between. Maybe Augustin will be one of them--the rules changing favoring perimeter players will help him of course--but I have my doubts. After Charlotte took Augustin with the ninth pick, the Nets chose Brook Lopez, prompting Bilas to declare, "New Jersey got an absolute steal. They ought to wear a mask for this one." I agree with Bilas; I had Charlotte taking Lopez as a nice complement to Emeka Okafor and unless Augustin turns out to be a very dynamic player I think that the Bobcats are going to really regret this.
Between the draft and some recent trades, the Nets added Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts (who claims to have never lost a one on one game in his life, a more useful--if harder to verify--trait than Ajinca's one on zero prowess), Ryan Anderson, Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. Mark Jackson said that New Jersey has made a "tremendous upgrade." Van Gundy liked Milwaukee's moves, which include acquiring Richard Jefferson from New Jersey plus drafting Joe Alexander and Luc Mbah a Moute. Bilas praised the Heat, who added Beasley, Mario Chalmers and Darnell Jackson. Of course, the reality is that it is far too early to know who the real winners and losers are but I think that Jackson, Van Gundy and Bilas' choices are reasonable based on what we currently know about the players in question.
The best thing about ESPN's draft coverage this year is that Stephen A. Smith no longer sat at the main table spitting out overblown "analysis." ESPN relegated him to asking pro forma questions of players after they were drafted and the Worldwide Leader apparently put a strict clock on Smith's segments to make sure that he did not wander too far astray; at one point he said that he wanted to ask another question but that he was being directed to cut his interview short and toss it over to Doris Burke, who interviewed various players and their family members. If you watched the whole telecast then you noticed that Burke asked questions that specifically related to who she was speaking with, while for the most part Smith kept asking variations of "What can your new team expect you to contribute?" Granted, the players are young and nervous and Smith was hardly given a huge role, but he could have at least tried to ask something specific about each player rather than lobbing a generic, forgettable question that led automatically to a preprogrammed, generic and forgettable reply along the lines of "I will do whatever my new team asks me to do."
One of the most interesting things about this draft is that there is a decent chance that none of the most ballyhooed players will win Rookie of the Year; Greg Oden, last year's number one overall selection, could very well earn that honor if he puts up good rebounding and shot blocking numbers for a Portland team that should be able to contend for a playoff berth in the strong Western Conference.
Here is a capsule look at what I wrote about the three previous NBA Drafts:
First Impressions of the 2007 NBA Draft, Soon to be Renamed the "Paul Allen Buys Every Draft Pick Show"What I said in 2007: "Nothing lends itself more to overanalysis and wild hyperbole than the draft (any draft, not just the NBA's). None of the draft picks has played one second of basketball at the NBA level, let alone 82 regular season games over a period of many months, so the dramatic, overblown statements and projections that are offered up by "experts" are just that: dramatic and overblown."
What I think now: Those two sentences should be the preamble to every single article that is written right after any draft.
Thoughts on the NBA Draft (2006)
What I said in 2006: "There were so many trades going on throughout the draft that I kept waiting for Monty Hall to come out of the audience and take the microphone away from Dan Patrick. Greg Anthony was so befuddled at one point that he said, 'No comment,' as if he were being deposed under oath. Stephen A. Smith completely ripped the Portland Trail Blazers but I don't understand why he did not ask a direct question of Blazers President Steve Patterson when Patterson appeared on the telecast via satellite. Portland has clearly made some questionable moves in the past, but they got rid of undersized point guard Sebastian Telfair and obtained LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy, either of whom conceivably could turn out to be the best player in this year's draft. Portland also acquired Raef LaFrentz and Dan Dickau while shipping away Theo Ratliff and Victor Khryapa. It seems unfair and misguided for Smith to criticize these deals three seconds after they have transpired when there is a decent chance that these moves actually helped Portland. Ratliff is a quality shotblocker but Portland hardly gave up the house to get Aldridge and Roy. Smith's verbal broadsides against Portland came across as the proverbial 'shoot, ready, aim' style of analysis. Just because ESPN made a movie about Telfair does not mean that he will be a great NBA player."
What I think now: Portland fans are happy that Stephen A. Smith is not running their team; NBA fans are happy that Smith's role on ESPN's NBA Draft coverage was reduced from commentator to interviewer.
Thoughts on the NBA Draft (2005)
What I said in 2005: "Utah...acquired the third pick from Portland and selected Illinois' Deron Williams, a poor man's Jason Kidd who seems to be the perfect fit for Jerry Sloan's system. He won't make anyone forget John Stockton (who could?) but Utah expects him to man the point guard spot for the next 10 years or so."
What I think now: I was right to praise the Williams pick and to pan the Clippers' choice of Yaroslav Korolev with the 12th pick. On the other hand, I did not even mention Chris Paul and he has turned out to be the best player from that draft so far. Atlanta's choice of Marvin Williams over Paul and Deron Williams will only haunt the Hawks for the next decade or so.
Labels: 2008 NBA Draft, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo
posted by David Friedman @ 4:25 AM
