Identical Numbers Are Not Always Equivalent
The Philadelphia 76ers recently added Dolph Schayes to their Legends Walk. For five years, Schayes was the NBA's career scoring leader, and when he retired in 1964 he ranked second in career scoring. Currently, Schayes ranks 75th in career ABA/NBA scoring. Zach Randolph is slightly ahead of Schayes in career scoring and Glen Rice is slightly behind Schayes in career scoring.
Randolph and Rice had excellent careers. However, Schayes was an all-time great who was selected to the NBA's 10 player 25th Anniversary Team in 1971 plus the 50th Anniversary Team (1996) and the 75th Anniversary Team (2021). In other words, when Schayes scored more than 18,000 career points that was an elite level total. Subsequent players who scored more than 18,000 career points were not as far ahead of most of their peers as Schayes was ahead of his peers. When comparing statistics of NBA players who competed in different eras, identical numbers are not always equivalent: it is more impressive to be the all-time leading scorer--even when the league had not existed for a long time--than to peak as the 70th or 80th leading scorer of all-time.
Contextual factors impact statistics. For example, during Schayes' career the NBA season was shorter, and in his early seasons all of the teams did not even play the same number of games. In 1949-50, his Syracuse Nationals played 64 games, but some teams played as many as 68 games while other teams played as few as 62 games. The NBA season schedule did not become standardized at 82 games for all teams until 1967-68. During Schayes' era, the scheduling provided fewer breaks, the traveling
conditions were harsher (no private team planes, no luxury hotels), and
the game was much more physical. Schayes' Syracuse Nationals started
1961 by playing games on January 1, January 2, January 3, January 4, and
January 5. They had one day off, and then they played on January 7 and
January 8. "Load management" might have described how cargo was placed
on trucks or trains, but it did not exist in terms of healthy players missing games or playing with minutes restrictions.
Scoring opportunities for both teams and individuals increased in the 1954-55 season when the NBA first began using the 24 second shot clock, an innovation that prevented the stalling tactics that threatened to destroy the league.
The points that Schayes scored under the conditions that he scored those points cannot be equated to the points scored by later players under different conditions.
Contextual factors have a similar impact on NFL statistics. When Ozzie Newsome retired
in 1990, he held the career record for most receptions by a tight end (662),
and he ranked fourth overall, trailing only Steve Largent (819), Charlie Joiner (750), and Art Monk
(730). Now, Newsome barely cracks the top 10 all-time for tight ends
(Tony Gonzalez is the current record holder with 1325 receptions), and Newsome ranks 66th overall. With all due respect, Ricky Proehl and Amani Toomer--the players who are currently just ahead of Newsome on the all-time receptions list--are not in the same class as Newsome, a Hall of Famer who still is on the short list of all-time great tight ends more than 30 years after he played his final game. Why are 662 receptions accumulated in recent years not equivalent to 662 receptions accumulated from 1979-90? Rules changes regarding permissible downfield contact, blocking at the line of scrimmage, and enhanced protection for quarterbacks have led to an explosion in the productivity and efficiency of the passing game. The NFL in 2022 is very much a different game than the NFL in 1982.
Although context is important, I am not a fan of so-called "pace adjusted" statistics, a topic that I discussed in my profile of Wilt Chamberlain in my Pantheon series:
There is a reason that someone once suggested that the NBA Record Book
should be renamed "The Wilt Chamberlain Story." Chamberlain posted the
top four single season scoring averages in NBA history. The
non-Chamberlain record is Michael Jordan's 37.1 ppg in 1986-87.
Chamberlain's 1961-62 Philadelphia Warriors scored 125.4 ppg in a league
in which teams averaged 118.8 ppg, while Jordan's 1986-87 Bulls
produced 104.8 ppg when teams averaged 109.9 ppg. Some observers suggest
that Chamberlain's scoring average is inflated by the faster "pace" of
his era. Mathematically, this makes some sense; after all, the more shot
attempts there are per game, the more opportunities a player will have
to score. To cite an extreme example, when the NBA did not have a shot
clock and teams routinely scored less than 85 points there was very
little chance that someone would average 50 ppg for a season.
Yet,
to simply crunch a few numbers and declare that Jordan's 37.1 ppg is
somehow approximately equal to Chamberlain's 50.4 ppg flies in the face
of logic. Regardless of the overall pace of the game, Chamberlain still
had to continue to keep pace, so to speak, to average 50.4 ppg. No one
else in his era—or any other time—has come close to doing this. Jordan’s
37.1 ppg may "project" to a higher average in 1961-62, but who is to
say that the faster pace would not have fatigued Jordan or led to wear
and tear that would have predisposed him to injury? Maybe the slower
pace in 1986-87 would have suited Chamberlain even better and made it
harder for teams to defend him. Without having to run up and down the
court so frequently to get back on defense perhaps Chamberlain would
have been more energized, while his opponents would have been worn down
by the pounding they took trying to stop him in the paint; maybe a young
Chamberlain would have scored 55 or 60 ppg in 1986-87. Let's be
clear—I'm not saying that this is what would have happened; I'm saying
that I don't know and neither does anyone else. It makes just as much
sense to hypothesize that a slower pace would help Chamberlain as it
does to "standardize" his numbers downward. All that we know for a fact
is that Chamberlain scored 50.4 ppg and in nearly six decades of NBA
action no one else has come close to matching that. Showing that
Chamberlain and Jordan's scoring production is mathematically equivalent
when pace is considered is not the same as proving that Jordan would
have in fact scored 50.4 ppg in 1961-62 or that Chamberlain would have
been "held" to 37.1 ppg in 1986-87.
I don't know if Schayes would have scored more, less, or about the same in today's NBA as he did in the 1950s NBA, but I strongly believe that his 18,000-plus points are more impressive than 18,000-plus points scored in a later era when reaching the 18,000 point club was no longer a milestone event--and I strongly disagree with anyone who thinks that "pace adjustment" is a meaningful way to compare the statistics of players from different eras.
What I do know is that Schayes was a dominant scorer in his era. I also know that he could score with either hand, that he could drive to the hoop, and that he was known for his long range shooting touch. He was a rugged rebounder and a good passer. Schayes was 6-8, so in today's game his size and skill set would enable him to play inside or outside. Improved playing conditions, improved training, and the league's increased focus on efficiency/shooting percentages would likely have resulted in Schayes shooting a better field goal percentage now than he did during his career; he led the league in free throw percentage three times, and his career free throw percentage of .849 demonstrates that he was an excellent shooter.
I respect great players from all eras, and it disappoints me any time I read or hear someone make disrespectful comments about the game's pioneering legends.
Labels: Dolph Schayes, Glen Rice, Ozzie Newsome, Wilt Chamberlain, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 11:29 PM
Poor Shooting Predictably Dooms Grizzlies
Earlier this season, I caught some flack for
writing that not only would the Memphis Grizzlies make an early playoff exit due to their lack of outside shooting but that--contrary to popular belief--they did not fit the mold of the proverbial "team nobody wanted to face."
I never said that Memphis is not a good team or even that it would be easy to beat the Grizzlies in a playoff series; I just said that Memphis has a glaring flaw and that because of this flaw if I were an NBA coach I would rather face Memphis in a seven game series than most of the other Western Conference playoff teams.
Given a choice of battling Golden State, Houston, L.A., San Antonio or Memphis, I would prefer Memphis every time. The Warriors perform at an elite level at both ends of the court, the Rockets have a good roster even though James Harden is overrated, the Clippers have a legit MVP-caliber player in Blake Griffin and the Spurs have a championship pedigree. In contrast, Memphis has a plodding, predictable style of play that can be broken down over the course of a seven game series. It might take six or even seven games to do so but it can be done.
Memphis Coach Dave Joerger knows his team's fatal flaw and he mentioned it after Golden State eliminated the Grizzlies in six games to advance to the Western Conference Finals: "We won 55 games, and we have something that other people have to really
scheme against. We found in Game four
that they made a nice adjustment. Basically, they just jammed it up and
dared us to shoot it from the perimeter."
The Grizzlies play hard, they are a good defensive team and they can extend a playoff series against a superior opponent--but they cannot make outside shots and therefore their inside advantage can be neutralized in a seven game series.
Memphis took a 2-1 lead before Golden State rattled off three straight wins but if you understand basketball you never doubted that Golden State would eventually prevail. Memphis relies on slowing the game down and pounding the opponent into submission. A team that pushes the pace, sags off of Memphis' perimeter players and crowds Memphis' big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will beat Memphis every time over the course of seven games because Memphis shoots so poorly. Memphis might wear down an opponent early in a series but in the long run Memphis' big guys wear down because the defense focuses on them and ignores their teammates.
In game four, Memphis shot .375 from the field and .222 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 12-29 (.414). Golden State won 101-84.
In game five, Memphis shot .398 from the field and .267 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 14-34 (.412). Golden State won 98-78.
In game six, Memphis shot .374 from the field and .250 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 12-37 (.324). Golden State won 108-95.
Some people will look back at this series and insist that it was a tough fight because Memphis took two of the first three games but the reality is that this series was not close at all. Golden State dismantled Memphis three straight times.
In the first half of game five, 2015 NBA MVP Stephen Curry shot 5-8 from three point
range, while the Grizzlies combined to shoot 1-7 from behind the arc.
Curry averaged 24.5 ppg in the series, 5.3 ppg more than any Memphis player. He shot .406 from three point
range and he made more three pointers (26) than the entire Memphis team
(25). Anyone who thinks that this Memphis team as currently constructed
is likely to win a championship is misguided.
Labels: Golden State Warriors, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 1:44 AM
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will Not Win the Championship
Many people consider the Memphis Grizzlies to be a team that is well-built for postseason play but in my column at
The Roar I identify the fatal flaw that will prevent the Grizzlies from capturing the NBA crown:
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will Not Win the ChampionshipLabels: Lionel Hollins, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 5:51 PM
The Real Team Nobody Wants to Face
It has been amusing during the past few weeks to hear various commentators suggest that "nobody wants to face" the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs. Early last season, the Grizzlies were a team on the rise with Lionel Hollins at the helm and Rudy Gay providing scoring punch from the small forward position to spread the floor for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol but after
trading Gay and ditching Hollins the Grizzlies are a much weaker squad; the Grizzlies suffered some injuries this season that some people used as a convenient excuse for Memphis' declining winning percentage and the Grizzlies received a temporary bump when Gasol returned to the lineup but as the regular season concludes they have hardly been setting the world on fire--posting a 6-4 record in their last 10 games--and they are in a three way tie with Dallas and Phoenix for seventh-ninth place in the Western Conference.
In recent seasons, teams that "nobody wanted to face" did not make much noise in the playoffs:
- In 2006 nobody wanted to face the Sacramento Kings, who lost 4-2 to the San Antonio Spurs in the first round; the Spurs had a 34 point win and a 22 point win during that series and only lost game three by one point.
- In 2011 nobody wanted to face the Portland Trailblazers, who lost 4-2 to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
- In 2012 nobody wanted to face the New York Knicks, who lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat in the first round. Miami blasted New York 100-67 in the first game and took a 3-0 lead before dropping game four 89-87.
The Grizzlies have a solid inside offensive attack anchored by Randolph and Gasol and they are a very good defensive team but they just cannot score enough points--particularly from the perimeter--to beat an elite team in a playoff series. Russell Westbrook's injury last season enabled the Grizzlies to sneak into the Western Conference Finals--where they were promptly obliterated by the Spurs--but this year the Grizzlies will most likely exit in the first round, assuming that they even qualify for the postseason.
In contrast, the real team that nobody wants to face--or at least that nobody with any sense would want to face--is the Spurs, who have an NBA-best 58-16 record, a .784 winning percentage that is the best in franchise history. Their leaders have championship pedigrees--Coach Gregg Popovich, two-time regular season MVP Tim Duncan, 2007 Finals MVP Tony Parker and 2008 Sixth Man of the Year Manu Ginobili--they made it to the NBA Finals last season and they are currently in the midst of a 18 game winning streak; only 12 other NBA squads have won at least 18 games in a row, including some of the greatest teams in pro basketball history (1967 76ers, 1972 Lakers, 1996 Bulls, 2000 Lakers).
The Grizzlies are flawed, mediocre and vulnerable; the Spurs are well-balanced, they have a tradition of excellence and they are accustomed to making long playoff runs. It should be obvious which team "nobody wants to face" and which team would not evoke much fear.
Labels: Gregg Popovich, Lionel Hollins, Manu Ginobili, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:33 PM
Spurs Sweep Offensively Challenged Grizzlies
The San Antonio Spurs will be well rested when they face the Miami Heat or the Indiana Pacers in the 2013 NBA Finals; the Spurs earned a nine day vacation with their 4-0 sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals. Tony Parker had a magnificent series, averaging 24.5 ppg on .532 field goal shooting while also leading both teams in assists (9.5 apg). Tim Duncan played outstanding defense (3.0 bpg) while also ranking second on the Spurs in scoring (15.5 ppg); he dominated the overtime period in game two and he dominated the overtime period in game three, playing his best basketball in perhaps the two most important five minute stretches of the series.
San Antonio's third option, Manu Ginobili, averaged just 10.0 ppg while shooting a wretched .407 from the field; Ginobili only ranked fourth on the team in scoring behind Parker, Duncan and Kawhi Leonard (11.3 ppg) but he hit some timely shots and his dribble penetration opened up opportunities for San Antonio's three point shooters. Ginobili ranked second on the Spurs in assists (4.5 apg).
As I
predicted,
the Grizzlies struggled to score 90 points versus the Spurs; the
Grizzlies averaged 87.8 ppg, with their two highest scoring efforts
coming in the two overtime games (89 points in game two, 93 points in
game three). The Grizzlies are a well-coached team that plays excellent
defense; if they had not
traded Rudy Gay for spare parts (Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis) then they might have had enough offensive firepower to defeat the Spurs. Prince averaged 5.8 ppg versus the Spurs while shooting .360 from the field; although Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins kept Prince in the starting lineup, Hollins slashed Prince's minutes because of Prince's ineffectiveness. Daye and Davis rarely played during the regular season and, not surprisingly, they rarely played in the Western Conference Finals, logging a combined 25 minutes. Gay's absence--and the uselessness of the players brought in to replace him--meant that the Spurs could pack the paint, making it difficult for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to even catch the ball, let alone score. Gasol averaged 14.3 ppg on .397 field goal shooting and Randolph averaged 11.0 ppg on .302 field goal shooting. Call this the anti-Kobe Bryant effect.
Kobe Bryant's presence and impact boosted Pau Gasol's field goal percentage after Gasol joined the Lakers even though Bryant's field goal percentage is not extraordinarily high; the absence of Gay had a correspondingly negative effect on the field goal percentages of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the Western Conference Finals. This is something that "stat gurus" do not understand: a player who can create shots for himself and others distorts the opposing defense and thus his value cannot be measured just by looking at his individual field goal percentage (or by looking at his "advanced basketball statistics"). Gay is not nearly as good as Bryant but Gay performed a similarly key function for Memphis--and that role inevitably becomes more important as a team advances deeper in the playoffs, because the game slows down and defenses focus on a team's top offensive options. The Grizzlies advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite the Gay trade, not because of it; the Grizzlies survived their first round matchup because the L.A. Clippers are not a championship caliber team and the Grizzlies eliminated the Oklahoma City Thunder mainly because of
Russell Westbrook's season-ending injury.
ESPN's halftime shows during the Western Conference Finals provided great comic relief as baffled "stat guru" apologist Bill Simmons struggled to explain what was happening; it was hilarious to hear Simmons criticizing Hollins for not benching Prince earlier in the series; not too long ago, Simmons predicted a Memphis win, he did a symbolic victory lap because he had praised the Gay trade for improving the Grizzlies and he said that Prince was a better fit for Memphis than Gay.
It will be very interesting to see if the Grizzlies retain the services of Hollins, an excellent coach who publicly criticized the money-saving but strategically unsound Gay trade by saying, "When you have champagne taste, you can't be on a beer budget." Hollins has played a major role in Memphis' steady rise in the standings but his playoff rotation demonstrated that he has no use for the players who the Memphis "stat gurus" acquired in the Gay deal so his vision of how to compete for a championship may be incompatible with the front office's plans.
Labels: Bill Simmons, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:56 PM
Recurring Themes: San Antonio's Game Three Win Over Memphis Featured Familiar Storylines
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best of seven playoff series--and it does not seem likely that the Memphis Grizzlies will accomplish that feat against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs took a 3-0 lead over the Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals with a 104-93 overtime victory on Saturday night. Many of the themes discussed here during the playoffs recurred during this contest:
1)
Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made it clear that he does not agree with the Rudy Gay trade
Tayshaun Prince, who replaced Rudy Gay in the starting lineup, scored seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting and had one rebound in 21 minutes. When Prince and Tony Allen are on the court, San Antonio packs the paint on defense and makes it difficult for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to even catch the ball near the hoop, let alone score. Prince sprained his ankle during the game but he was available for action; Hollins chose instead to often use reserve players Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter in place of Prince and Allen because Bayless and Pondexter provided a spark in game two with their shooting ability. This time, though, the results were mixed, as I predicted when I wrote, "Bayless and Pondexter are bench players for good reason; they are not
equipped to effectively play heavy duty minutes game after game. Bench
players generally play better at home than on the road, so Hollins'
lineup switch may help the Grizzlies win one or even two games in
Memphis but in the long run Bayless and Pondexter cannot undo the damage
that the Gay trade did." Pondexter scored 15 points on 6-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes but he had a -9 plus/minus rating, while Bayless scored seven points on 3-11 field goal shooting in 31 minutes and had a -18 plus/minus rating. If the Grizzlies still had Rudy Gay then Hollins could keep Allen on the court because Gay's presence/abilities would open things up enough offensively to compensate for Allen's lack of shooting range--but this series has shown that when Prince and Allen are on the court together it is very difficult for Memphis to score enough points to win.
2)
Memphis missed Gay's ability to create his own shot/spread the floor
Right after Memphis traded Gay, I wrote, "Gay's field goal percentage has been hovering in career-low territory
all season but his presence still created space for Zach Randolph and
Marc Gasol and he ranked third on the team in rebounds, steals and
blocked shots; Gay provided a lot of value that is not captured by 'advanced basketball statistics.'" During the game three telecast, Jeff Van Gundy repeatedly pointed out that the Spurs' defensive strategy is to smother Randolph and Gasol because the Spurs can just ignore the Grizzlies' perimeter players. Here is Van Gundy's comment after Mike Conley missed a tough runner
on the last play of regulation with the score tied: "That's where you need someone with size and
skill to go get you a shot. To ask Mike Conley to drive it on the
dribble handoff into all that size--it's their best opportunity with the
personnel that they have on the perimeter--but it's also a very
difficult way to play." In other words, Van Gundy agrees with my analysis: it does not make sense for a
contending team to trade a 6-9 player who was their leading scorer for
spare parts.
The scientific method involves creating a hypothesis,
testing that hypothesis experimentally and then modifying the hypothesis
if the experiment proves that such modification is necessary; if
"advanced basketball statistics" were the objective science that its
supporters purport it to be, then those supporters would modify their
hypotheses in light of experimental evidence: in other words, when a
contending team trades its leading scorer because "advanced basketball
statistics" assert that said player is not valuable/necessary and then
the subsequent evidence shows that the team desperately misses said
player's ability to create open shots for himself/others the "advanced
basketball statistics" should be modified to reflect what the
experimental evidence shows. Instead, we can expect to continue to hear "stat gurus" praise the Gay trade for supposedly propelling the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals--when, in fact, the Grizzlies advanced this far despite the trade, not because of it--while ignoring the obvious fact that the Grizzlies sorely miss Gay in this matchup with the Spurs.
3)
The Difference Between Being the Third Option and Being the First Option
Less than two weeks ago, I wrote, "When Manu Ginobili scores 14 points in a half--as he did during the San
Antonio's 97-87 overtime loss to Golden State on Sunday--he is a hero
and a spark plug; when he is not making his shots the Spurs look
elsewhere for scoring punch." Ginobili is not having a great series versus Memphis--or a great playoff run overall--but he played a key role in game three, scoring 19 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in 30 minutes while grabbing seven rebounds and passing for five assists. Being the third option is perfect for a player with Ginobili's skill set; he is talented and fearless but he is too erratic to be the number one option for a championship team. What Ginobili is doing for the Spurs is exactly what James Harden would be doing for the Oklahoma City Thunder if he had not rejected their contract offer in order to get a max deal with Houston; Harden is perfectly suited to be the third option on a championship team but he is a bit overmatched as the first option.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 PM
Coach Lionel Hollins Reveals What He Thinks of the Rudy Gay Trade
For the first 36 minutes, game two of the San Antonio-Memphis series looked like an instant replay of
game one: the Spurs led 51-37 at halftime of game one and extended that margin to 73-57 by the end of the third quarter; they led 46-31 at halftime of game two and still led 76-64 entering the fourth quarter. In game one, the Spurs pulled away in the fourth quarter to post a 105-83 rout but in game two San Antonio's offense completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, while Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made a shrewd--and very necessary--lineup switch to give just enough of a boost to his team's anemic offense; those two factors--plus a very questionable flagrant foul call that contributed four points to the Memphis cause--enabled the Grizzlies to grind their way to 85 points and force overtime but that just delayed the inevitable: the Grizzlies only scored four points in the extra session and the Spurs took a 2-0 series lead with a 93-89 victory.
Tony Allen deserves an Oscar--and a flopping fine from the NBA--for his acting job after Manu Ginobili fouled him to prevent a layup in the final minute of regulation; Allen rolled around on the floor cradling his head in both of his arms as if Ginobili had caved in his skull with a brick even though replays showed that Ginobili never even touched Allen's head and that Allen did not hit his head on the floor, either. Allen made both free throws and then Mike Conley took advantage of the extra possession by scoring on a tough floater to tie the score with just :18 remaining in regulation. The game's biggest story, though, is not that sequence but rather the fine coaching job Lionel Hollins did as he attempted to strategically overcome the big mistake his front office made by trading away
Rudy Gay, Memphis' leading scorer. Less than two weeks ago,
I wrote, "Maybe the Grizzlies will find good use for the money that they saved by
getting rid of Gay's contract, maybe Davis and/or Daye will develop into
rotation players--but does anyone in his right mind believe that if
Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins were given a lie detector test he would say
that this trade improved Memphis' chances to win a championship this
season?" After watching game two, we do not need a lie detector to figure out Hollins' answer to that question; Ed Davis and Austin Daye were the only two Memphis players who did not play at all, while Hollins benched Gay's replacement Tayshaun Prince--who finished with two points on 1-5 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, compiling a -11 plus/minus rating--and Tony Allen for key second half stretches in favor of Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter. Bayless tied Conley for game-high scoring honors with 18 points and even though Bayless shot just 7-18 from the field (.389) that subpar field goal percentage was somewhat better than Memphis' overall field goal percentage (.340) and much better than either Prince's or Allen's (2-11). Bayless played 34 minutes after averaging 22.1 mpg in the regular season and 20.4 mpg in the playoffs. Pondexter added seven points on 3-6 field goal shooting and he grabbed nine rebounds in 37 minutes after averaging 21.1 mpg in the regular season and 22.7 mpg in the playoffs.
It is foolish to suggest that trading an 18 ppg scorer for spare parts did not hurt Memphis' chances to win an NBA championship but many people stubbornly insist on believing foolish things. Hollins is obviously no fool, because during Memphis' biggest game of this season he rejected the spare parts his team's management foisted on him and instead hoped that Bayless and Pondexter could save the day. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy did a great job during the telecast of both pointing out how San Antonio's defense completely disregarded Prince and Allen when they were on the court--thus clogging the lane and making matters difficult for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol--and also noting that San Antonio defenders were reluctant to leave Bayless and Pondexter unattended, which is why Randolph finally got going a little bit after being a non-factor in game one.
The Spurs' Tony Parker shot just 6-20 from the field en route to scoring 15 points but his deft passing (18 assists) dissected Memphis' defense. Tim Duncan was saddled with foul trouble but he dominated the overtime--scoring six of San Antonio's eight points--and he finished with 17 points, nine rebounds and four blocked shots. Ginobili had a quiet game (seven points, four assists in 29 minutes) but the
beauty of being the third option is that you are not expected to be great every single game--a luxury that James Harden will learn to appreciate the longer that he is away from the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Hollins will no doubt insert Bayless and Pondexter in the lineup earlier than usual in game three and he will reduce Prince's and Allen's minutes but the problem is that Bayless and Pondexter are bench players for good reason; they are not equipped to effectively play heavy duty minutes game after game. Bench players generally play better at home than on the road, so Hollins' lineup switch may help the Grizzlies win one or even two games in Memphis but in the long run Bayless and Pondexter cannot undo the damage that the Gay trade did. Memphis will continue to struggle to score enough points to beat San Antonio.
San Antonio squandered a 2-0 lead against Oklahoma City in last year's
playoffs and Memphis overcame a 2-0 deficit versus the L.A. Clippers in
the first round of this year's playoffs but those were exceptions to the
NBA rule: teams that take 2-0 leads win the series nearly 94% of the
time. Some people may suggest that the second half comeback in game two will give
the Grizzlies momentum as the series moves to Memphis for the next two
games but the reality is that, barring an injury or suspension to a key
player, this series is already over and all that remains to be decided
is how many games it will last.
Labels: Jerryd Bayless, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Quincy Pondexter, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 5:41 AM
Spurs Tame Grizzlies in Game One of the Western Conference Finals
Yes, it's only one game--though game one winners advance roughly 80% of the time in the NBA playoffs--but the first game of the Western Conference Finals went almost exactly as
I predicted the series will go based on the skill set strengths and weaknesses of the respective teams. The San Antonio Spurs' 105-83 rout of the Memphis Grizzlies exposed a lot of Memphis' flaws--flaws that went unmentioned in most "expert" analysis of this series:
1) The Memphis Grizzlies were not able to slow the game down; I said that for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs the final score would have to be in the low 90s but Memphis neither reached that total nor held the Spurs below that total.
2) I wrote that Memphis would struggle to score 40 points in some halves and that it would be interesting to hear what Bill Simmons says at the halftime of the first game when Memphis has scored less than 40 points. Memphis trailed 51-37 at halftime and only surpassed the 40 point barrier in the second half by tacking on eight meaningless garbage time points in the last 1:47. Simmons called the first half the "worst scenario" for Memphis but said that Memphis "still kind of hung in a little bit." No, it was not a "worst scenario"; it was a predictable scenario for anyone who understood the matchups--and since when does trailing by 14 after scoring just 37 points count as hanging in a little bit? The game showed all the signs of the blowout that it eventually turned out to be; I don't expect every game of the series to be a blowout but anyone who watched the first half with understanding would have expected the Spurs to win by at least 20 even after the Grizzlies made a brief third quarter run: the Spurs were completely outexecuting the Grizzlies at both ends of the court and thus Quincy Pondexter's third quarter three point shooting barrage only delayed the inevitable.
3) "Stat gurus" praise
the Rudy Gay trade as if it cured world hunger, solved the energy crisis and conclusively proved that anyone who does not swear permanent allegiance to "advanced basketball statistics" is hopelessly ignorant. The Grizzlies dealt Rudy Gay--their leading scorer who is also one of the top rebounders at the small forward position--and received in exchange Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis. If Daye or Davis appear in a game you can be pretty sure that someone is getting blown out and/or the Grizzlies have lost players due to injury/foul trouble. Prince took over Gay's starting small forward position and has become the 6-9 version of the Invisible Man; Prince was a key contributor to Detroit's championship team--in
2004--but he has lost a step (or two or three) laterally and he was never a big-time scorer. As Memphis' offense died on the vine in game one, Prince contributed six points on 2-5 field goal shooting, one rebound and two assists in 29 minutes. The Spurs felt free to sag off of Prince to protect the paint. I don't know what kind of impact Rudy Gay might have had in this series but I'm willing to bet it would have been more than six points in 29 minutes and I suspect that the Spurs would not have sunk his defender into the paint. Daye and Davis shot a combined 3-8 from the field in game one, mainly during what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."
4) The Grizzlies shot .432 from the field as the Spurs fronted Memphis' post players and also collapsed perimeter defenders into the paint, daring Memphis' non-shooters to shoot and not providing any room for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to operate. Randolph made just one of his eight field goal attempts and posted a -28 plus/minus number in his 28 minutes. One third quarter play symbolized Randolph's utter frustration: Randolph committed an offensive foul by pushing Tim Duncan, the officials did not call the foul and Randolph still missed the wide open layup.
5) While Memphis' offense sputtered, San Antonio executed flawlessly and did exactly what I expected: spread the floor and kill the Grizzlies with dribble penetration leading both to layups and wide open three point shots. Tony Parker led both teams in scoring (20 points) and assists (nine),
putting on a clinic while he ran circles around Memphis' defense. Neither Tim Duncan (six points, 3-9 field goal shooting) nor Manu Ginobili (eight points on 2-6 field goal shooting) did much offensively but Duncan anchored the Spurs' defense, controlled the glass with a game-high 10 rebounds and distributed the ball well (four assists, second on the team to Parker).
San Antonio may not make 14 three pointers in a game again the rest of the series and Zach Randolph will play better but--barring injuries or serious foul trouble--this series is on course to play out like I expected, much to the surprise of all of the "experts" who considered Memphis to be a heavy favorite.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 7:58 AM
San Antonio Versus Memphis Preview
Western Conference Finals
#2 San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs. #5 Memphis (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Memphis can win if…the
Grizzlies slow the game down, pound the ball inside, and keep the final scores no higher than the low 90s. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are arguably the best power forward/center duo in the league and they must be productive and efficient against San Antonio's Tim Duncan/Tiago Splitter tandem.
San Antonio will win because…the
Spurs are comfortable playing at a fast or a slow tempo; the Spurs can match up with the Grizzlies in a grind it out game but they are too smart and well-coached to rely on this: San Antonio will push the pace and force the Grizzlies to defend all over the court, spreading Memphis' defense with corner three point shooters and attacking the paint with dribble penetration by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Other things to consider: The regular season head to head record is meaningless; three of the games took place before the
Rudy Gay trade and the Spurs sat out two thirds of their "Big Three" (Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) in the fourth game--though it is worth noting that the Grizzlies only won the latter contest 92-90 even though they were at full strength.
The 2011 first round series when Memphis defeated San Antonio in six games is also meaningless; O.J. Mayo, Sam Young and Shane Battier were key rotation players for the Grizzlies at that time, while Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and George Hill were key rotation players for the Spurs. It is hilarious to hear "analysis" of this series that focuses on some version of "Memphis beat San Antonio without Rudy Gay in 2011 so the Grizzlies won't miss him versus San Antonio in 2013." Both teams have significantly different rotations now, so this series should be evaluated based on the skill sets of the current players and the likely matchups/mismatches.
The Grizzlies enjoyed a favorable path to the Western Conference Finals, beating the overrated L.A. Clippers and then taking advantage of the Russell Westbrook injury to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs essentially had a first round bye
against the sleepwalking, Kobe Bryant-less L.A. Lakers but then they faced a surprisingly tough Golden State squad; San Antonio beat Golden State in a high scoring game one (129-127 in double overtime) and then San Antonio closed out the series in a low scoring game six (94-82)--and that is the key factor in this series: the Spurs can play small/fast and they can play big/slow but the Grizzlies can only be effective with a big/slow lineup.
If Parker and Ginobili attack the paint and set up the Spurs' three point shooters then it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to score enough points even if Randolph and Gasol win the battle versus Duncan and Splitter--and it is not at all certain that Randolph and Gasol will significantly outplay their San Antonio counterparts. Memphis will struggle to score more than 90 points per game in this
series. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 ppg versus the Thunder in the
Western Conference semifinals and the only time they topped 100 points
they needed an overtime session to do it. The Spurs will score more points against the Grizzlies than the Thunder scored and the Spurs are better equipped to match up with the Grizzlies defensively.
Could Memphis win the series? Sure; if the final scores are something like 80-75 and if Randolph/Gasol put up 25-12 and 18-10 respectively while the Grizzlies contain Parker/Ginobili without losing control of San Antonio's three point shooters then Memphis can beat San Antonio--but I expect final scores in the 95-90 range or above and I just don't see Memphis scoring 95 points four times in this series.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 3:10 PM
Requiem for a Contender: Westbrook Injury Sealed Thunder's Fate
In the wake of the Memphis Grizzlies' victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, many theories and explanations have been offered for--depending on how you look at it--why Memphis won/why Oklahoma City lost. It has been suggested that Oklahoma City made a mistake choosing to keep Serge Ibaka while trading James Harden for Kevin Martin. The Thunder had a .712 winning percentage in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, finishing with the second best record in the Western Conference (47-19); in the 2012-13 season, the Thunder had a .732 winning percentage, finishing with the best record in the Western Conference (60-22). The Thunder did not miss a beat without Harden and, in fact, proved to be a better team without him over the course of the grueling 82 game NBA season. Ibaka has led the NBA in blocked shots per game the past two seasons and in
total blocked shots the past three seasons. He finished second in the
2012 Defensive Player of the Year voting and third in the 2013 Defensive
Player of the Year voting. Ibaka
is a very valuable player but he should not be expected to replace Harden's scoring; that is Kevin
Martin's job and Martin filled that role very well, averaging 14.0
ppg on .450 field goal shooting in 2012-13.
The Thunder took a 2-0 lead over Harden's Houston Rockets in the first round but Russell Westbrook--one of the top five players in the NBA--suffered what proved to be a season-ending knee injury in the first half of game two, though he limped his way through the second half of that contest. Without Westbrook, the Thunder struggled to finish off the Rockets--going 2-2 the rest of the series--and then lost 4-1 to the Grizzlies; that adds up to a 3-6 record sans Westbrook in 2012-13 after going 62-22 with him. It should be obvious that the Thunder's problem is not the Harden trade but rather the Westbrook injury. Harden performed markedly worse in the playoffs than the regular season in both 2012 and 2013, so the idea that he could have filled Westbrook's role in the 2013 playoffs is speculation not supported by facts--and if the Thunder had elected to keep Harden then, for financial reasons, they likely would have been without the services of Ibaka, one of the league's top defensive players. Under those circumstances, the Thunder would have been worse off than they are now; without Ibaka they would not have posted the West's best record and they would have been even less equipped to deal with Westbrook's freak injury.
Westbrook has been one of the NBA's most durable players. He will return to action fully healthy next season and the Thunder will most likely once again be the best team in the Western Conference. Barring a major move, Harden's Rockets will again struggle to make the playoffs before losing in the first round.
From the Memphis perspective, it has become popular to suggest that the Grizzlies have benefited from the
Rudy Gay trade but that assertion is a major exercise in denial. Gay is an 18 ppg scorer who is also one of the top rebounders at the small forward position; the Grizzlies traded him for Tayshaun Prince,
Austin Daye and Ed Davis. Daye and Davis rarely play at all, while Prince--who has taken over Gay's starting role for Memphis--averaged 8.8 ppg while shooting .429 from the field
during 37 regular season season games wtih the Grizzlies and he has been even less productive during
the playoffs: 7.5 ppg, .354 field goal shooting. Yes, Prince is a better defender than Gay but you would have to believe
that Prince is by far the best wing defender in the league in order to
suggest that he is not having an overall negative impact in light of his total lack of offensive production. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have dominated in the paint but replacing Gay with Prince has made their job tougher, because opposing teams can leave Prince to trap in the paint--something that opponents would be reluctant to do with Gay on the floor. The Grizzlies beat the overrated L.A. Clippers in the first round and then had to work very hard to defeat the Westbrook-less Thunder in the second round; the Thunder won the first game of the series before the Grizzlies took the next four games, but the Grizzlies achieved three of their victories by just six points each (including one overtime contest) and they won the other game by four points. The offensively challenged Grizzlies averaged 93.6 ppg versus the Thunder but, without Westbrook, the Thunder only averaged 89.6 ppg versus the Grizzlies after ranking third in the league with a 105.7 ppg scoring average during the regular season. In the game five series clincher versus Oklahoma City, Memphis scored 88 points on .370 field goal shooting; Prince contributed eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting and he had a
plus/minus number of -21, which is hard to do when you play 31 minutes
in a game that your team won by four points! Yet Bill Simmons is
gloating that he was right to support trading Gay.
The
reality is that if Russell Westbrook had been healthy then the Thunder
would have defeated the Grizzlies; he would have changed the result of most if not all of the games that the Grizzlies barely won. The Grizzlies would not have been able to survive while posting low scoring totals with poor shooting percentages--and those scoring totals/shooting percentages would likely have been even worse if Westbrook had been on the court, because the Thunder not only missed Westbrook's scoring and playmaking but also his defense: Westbrook would have slowed down Memphis point guard Mike Conley. This series debunked the theory that Westbrook shoots too much and that he negatively impacts Kevin Durant's game; it should be obvious that without Westbrook on the court it is much more difficult for Durant to post his typically efficient numbers. A good analogy for this is how Kobe Bryant improves the Lakers' overall offensive efficiency even though his field goal percentage is usually "only" in the .450 range. What "stat gurus" fail to understand is that Bryant and Westbrook distort opposing defenses to such an extent that they create many scoring opportunities for their teammates; shot creation is something that the "stat gurus" are not able to quantify, so they don't believe that it matters or even exists (which also may partly explain why the Grizzlies traded Gay).
The best thing that can be said about the
Gay trade is that even though it left the Grizzlies offensively
challenged it did not damage their team more than the absence of
Westbrook hindered the Thunder. It will be interesting
to hear what Simmons says when the Grizzlies struggle to score 40 points
in a half in the Western Conference Finals--and they are trailing instead of leading because in that round
they will be playing a full strength contender.
Labels: James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:49 PM
Memphis Versus Oklahoma City Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#5 Memphis (56-26) vs. #1 Oklahoma City (60-22)
Season series: Memphis, 2-1
Oklahoma City can win if…Kevin Durant channels the 1965 version of Jerry West; after Elgin Baylor suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game of that postseason, West averaged 40.6 ppg in the playoffs to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA Finals. It will take that kind of performance from Durant--plus timely scoring by Kevin Martin and great team defense--for the Thunder to beat a physical, defensive-minded Memphis team.
Memphis will win because…the Grizzlies matched up well even with a full-strength Oklahoma City team; without Russell Westbrook, the Thunder simply are not an elite level squad. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will pound the Thunder inside and the Thunder sans Westbrook will not be able to counter by speeding up the tempo of the game.
Other things to consider: Injuries have been the dominant theme of the 2013 playoffs so far; virtually every team that even had half a thought about challenging the Miami Heat has lost at least one All-Star to a season-ending injury, a list that includes Chicago (Derrick Rose), Boston (Rajon Rondo), Indiana (Danny Granger) and Oklahoma City (Russell Westbrook). The Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs--who are both banged up but have not lost any key players to season-ending injuries--are probably the only remaining teams that can remotely threaten the Heat. I still do not think that
trading Rudy Gay was the right decision--and
none of the players who the Grizzlies acquired for Gay made a
significant contribution in Memphis' first round victory over the L.A.
Clippers--but the Westbrook injury wrote the Grizzlies' ticket to the
Western Conference Finals.
As Oklahoma City struggled to close out the eighth seeded Houston Rockets without Westbrook, perhaps Westbrook's critics began to understand why
Tim Grover said that Westbrook, not Durant, is the Thunder's "Cleaner"--Grover is correct that Westbrook is "100% fearless" and it is glaringly obvious that the Thunder miss not only Westbrook's production but also his mindset/attitude.
Labels: Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 1:06 PM
Veteran Duncan, Six First-Time All-Stars Headline Coaches' Selections
Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Zach Randolph,
LaMarcus Aldridge and David Lee have been selected by the coaches as
the seven Western Conference All-Star reserves, while Chris Bosh, Tyson
Chandler, Joakim Noah, Paul George, Luol Deng, Jrue Holiday and Kyrie
Irving are the seven Eastern Conference All-Star reserves. Last season,
five first-time All-Stars made the cut
alongside perennial All-Stars Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce and Steve
Nash; this season, there are six first-time All-Stars: Harden, Chandler,
Noah, George, Holiday and Irving, who is the sixth youngest player in
All-Star history. After not being selected last season, Duncan is once
again an All-Star, while Nowitzki is not an All-Star for the first time
since 2001, Pierce is not an All-Star for the first time since 2007 and
eight-time All-Star Nash is not an All-Star for the second time in the
past three seasons. Bosh earned his eighth All-Star selection; media
members have showered praise on Pau Gasol for the past several years but
Bosh is at least as good of an all-around player as Gasol: Bosh is
certainly more mobile than Gasol and Bosh is a better defender, the two
players are roughly equal as rebounders (9.2 rpg career average for
Gasol, 9.0 rpg career average for Bosh) and Bosh is a more productive
scorer while Gasol is better passer (Bosh is obviously the superior
player this season but the preceding comparison encompasses their entire
careers). NBA coaches appreciate Bosh's value but media members and
casual fans tend to underrate Bosh's skill set and his impact.
In 2012, the coaches chose 12 of the 14 players I
picked,
substituting Pierce for Rajon Rondo in the East (Rondo later joined the
squad as the replacement for the injured Joe Johnson) and giving the
nod to Nowitzki over Danilo Gallinari in the West. This time around, the
coaches agreed with all 14 of my selections. Several of the TNT
commentators objected to the omission of Stephen Curry; Curry is one of
my favorite players to watch--as was his father
Dell--and
he is having an All-Star caliber season but he is not having a better
season than any of the seven players selected as All-Star reserves.
While Curry is averaging a career-high 20.9 ppg, he is also shooting a
career-low .436 from the field; his three point shooting percentage
(.451) is hovering right around his career average (.444), so that
indicates that he is not finishing as effectively in the paint this
season. There simply is not a logical way to justify putting Curry on
the All-Star roster. Curry has not had a greater impact than Duncan,
Randolph, Aldridge or
his teammate David Lee, so Curry could not grab a wild card spot over
one of those guys; focusing specifically on the guards, Westbrook is a
better two way player than Curry and Parker is a bit more efficient as
both a scorer and a playmaker. Perhaps one could make a case for Curry
as a shooter/distributor over Harden as a driver/distributor but I give
Harden a slight edge: Harden is less efficient than Curry but Harden is
bigger, stronger and a more versatile defender (Curry is crafty with his
hands, like his father, but he can be overpowered by bigger guards).
Labels: 2013 NBA All-Star Game, Chris Bosh, David Lee, James Harden, Joakim Noah, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 7:30 AM
Oklahoma City Versus Memphis Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#4 Oklahoma City (55-27) vs. #8 Memphis (46-36)
Season series: Memphis, 3-1
Memphis can win if…Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol control the paint, Mike Conley harasses Russell Westbrook into some inefficient shooting performances and Shane Battier (and Memphis' other wing defenders) hold Kevin Durant to under 25 ppg/.450 field goal shooting.
Oklahoma City will win because…Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed form a big, mobile and versatile frontcourt rotation that matches up very well with the Grizzlies' power forwards/centers. Ron Artest's physical defense in the first round of the 2010 playoffs slowed down Durant but Durant lit up the Denver Nuggets for 32.4 ppg on .471 field goal shooting in the first round of this year's playoffs and Durant is likely to post similar numbers against whoever Memphis throws at him. Conley did a credible job versus Tony Parker as the Grizzlies pulled off the rare first round upset of a number one seed but Westbrook is bigger, stronger and more athletic that Parker.
Other things to consider: Memphis won the regular season series 3-1 but Perkins did not play in any of those games. The Thunder now have all of the requisite parts to win a championship; the only thing that they lack is collective playoff experience (Perkins has championship experience from playing with the 2008 Boston Celtics but collectively the Thunder's current rotation with Perkins starting at center has not even been together for half a season).
TNT's Charles Barkley predicted that Memphis would beat San Antonio and he was right that the Grizzlies' frontcourt was too big for the Spurs to contain but I still think that Memphis' victory is surprising, if not shocking. Granted, the Spurs have an aging nucleus and each of their three top players experienced some kind of injury in the last month or so but the Spurs were the best and most consistent team in the NBA from October until the end of March; this is just the fourth time that an eighth seed defeated a number one seed since the creation of the current playoff format in 1984 and there were extenuating circumstances for at least two of the previous upsets: in the lockout-shortened 50 game 1999 season the 27-23 New York Knicks were only six games behind the 33-17 Miami Heat, while in the 2007 season the Golden State Warriors used a gimmicky small lineup and rode a wave of great three point shooting to knock off the shell-shocked Dallas Mavericks, a team that seemed to be psyched out before the series began when Dallas Coach Avery Johnson changed a starting lineup that had gone 37-6 during the regular season (the Mavericks finished 67-15 overall). This season was not distorted by a lockout, the Grizzlies did not use any gimmicks and the Spurs did not change their lineup (with the exception of Manu Ginobili missing game one); the Grizzlies just systematically outplayed a 61 win team whose core players helped the Spurs win the 2003, 2005 and 2007 NBA championships. Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks have been viewed with a somewhat jaundiced eye since their 2007 loss to Golden State, so I wonder how the Spurs' loss will affect the way that the Spurs are perceived; the Mavs in general and Nowitzki in particular have received a bum rap and I do not think that it would be right to just bash the Spurs--an aging team that has a championship pedigree--but it also would not be right to act as if the Spurs' loss is anything other than a very surprising and very disappointing ending for a team that had to be considered a legit championship contender based on their track record and based on how well they played over the course of the 2010-11 season.
Labels: Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 2:00 AM
Bryant Returns to Action, Rescues Lackluster Lakers
Kobe Bryant returned to action after a five game convalescence--six if you count the All-Star Game--and had the most bounce in his step and best accuracy in his shooting eye that he has displayed since a series of injuries began chipping away at his efficiency in early January. Bryant scored a game-high 32 points--including seven in the final 1:39, capped off by the game-winning three pointer with four seconds remaining--grabbed seven rebounds and led the L.A. Lakers with six assists, three steals and two blocked shots in a 99-98 road win versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Bryant shot 13-19 from the field, including 3-4 from three point range, and showed no ill effects from either the sprained left ankle that had finally ended his impressive consecutive games played streak or the assorted other ailments (broken right index finger, back spasms) that have hindered him for the past several weeks. Pau Gasol contributed 22 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and two blocked shots but Bryant did not receive much help from his other teammates: Andrew Bynum scored 15 points but had just four rebounds, while Ron Artest's "bump and run" defense versus Rudy Gay (who scored 17 points on 7-17 field goal shooting) hardly compensated for his dreadful 1-9 field goal shooting (Artest finished with three points). Derek Fisher played solidly (10 points, 3-5 field goal shooting in 31 minutes) but Lamar Odom once again delivered a triple single: five points on 2-6 field goal shooting, three rebounds and two assists in 30 minutes of basketball/sleepwalking. With all of the "advanced statistics" that now exist I wonder if anyone has tracked which player has accumulated the most coast to coast drives ending in an offensive foul and/or some other form of turnover; I suspect that Odom ranks among the league leaders in this category on a per minute basis over the past few years.
O.J. Mayo led the Grizzlies with 25 points on 9-15 field goal shooting, while Zach Randolph added another nice boxscore line to his season-long redemption story, producing 20 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, three assists, four steals and three blocked shots. Marc Gasol--Pau's younger brother--had eight points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. So many people made jokes about how the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol for nothing but the Lakers shipped Marc Gasol to Memphis as part of that deal and Marc Gasol is already an All-Star caliber player (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, .577 field goal shooting this season) at just 25 years of age; that transaction may end up looking a lot less lopsided than, say, the Cleveland Cavaliers getting Antawn Jamison for a late first round draft pick (assuming--and this is very important--that the Cavs are able to re-sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas). The Grizzlies shed Pau Gasol's salary and rebuilt their team around a nice corps of young players, a very sensible course of action once they concluded that they would never win a championship with Pau Gasol as their top player. In contrast, the Cavs obtained two-time All-Star Jamison (remember that Pau Gasol was a one-time All-Star when he came to the Lakers) while giving up a draft pick who may not even turn out to be a productive NBA player.
The Grizzlies had lost six of their previous eight games and trailed 27-16 at the end of the first quarter but the Lakers played dreadfully in the second and third quarters, throwing the ball away carelessly, missing defensive assignments and looking completely disinterested at times. The Lakers trailed 87-82 with 7:59 remaining in the fourth quarter when Bryant reentered the game after his customary brief rest. Bryant's turnaround jumper at the 5:22 mark trimmed Memphis' lead to 91-89 but then the Lakers inexplicably went three minutes without Bryant taking a shot: during that time, Pau Gasol shot 1-4 from the free throw line, Fisher whiffed on two free throw attempts and Ron Artest nearly shattered the backboard with a wide left brick of a three point attempt that looked like it had been fired by a malfunctioning RPG launcher. Then Bryant hit a jumper to make the score 95-92 Memphis with 2:22 remaining but after Rudy Gay split a pair of free throws Odom drove baseline and threw the ball away. Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins received a technical foul after an offensive foul call against Marc Gasol and Bryant drained the resulting free throw to make it a one possession game, 96-93 Memphis. The teams traded misses before Bryant's three pointer tied the score at 96. Gay's jumper put the Grizzlies back on top and after Pau Gasol missed a short jumper Mayo had an opportunity to ice the game at the free throw line but he missed both attempts. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson drew up a slick inbounds play that initially went away from Bryant to get the defense out of position before ultimately resulting in Bryant draining a wide open three pointer. That proved to be Bryant's sixth game-winning shot of the season after Mayo's last second jumper missed the mark.
Just prior to the Lakers going 4-1 sans Bryant, I wrote about some
NBA Truths. The Lakers' record during Bryant's brief absence would seem to bolster the case for those who insist that the Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA but I remain skeptical: should we believe what we have seen over the course of a large number of games during the past two years or should we be swayed by what we saw in a five game sample? That is the question concerning Kobe Bryant's "supporting cast." The overall pattern that we have seen with the Lakers is pretty clear: in 2007-08 and the early part of 2008-09, the Lakers
had solid depth but were not as talented as a team like the Boston Celtics that had three Hall of Famers (plus, it turns out, a future All-Star point guard) in their starting lineup. Since that time, the Lakers' depth has been depleted by the loss of Ronny Turiaf and Vladimir Radmanovic (productive role players whose roster spots are now filled by Josh Powell and Adam Morrison) plus the declining effectiveness of Luke Walton (who has been hampered by injuries), Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic. The Lakers are more talented now--their regular starting lineup of Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Andrew Bynum (who has been healthy for the most part this season, in contrast to 2007-08 and 2008-09), Pau Gasol and Ron Artest has a nice mix of size, length, shooting skill, postup options and playmaking--but anyone who says that they are a deep team simply has not been paying attention.
So what should we make of the Lakers' 4-1 record during Bryant's absence? The first and most important point is that it cannot be emphasized enough that this was a small sample size of games; the dreadful New York Knicks had a five game stretch this season during which they went 4-1: does that prove anything other than in a long NBA season a lot of anomalous events can happen? The second point is that Gasol and Odom had monster rebounding efforts during Bryant's absence; there is no doubt that in certain matchup situations the Lakers enjoy advantages due to their frontcourt length but by the same token we have seen many instances of Odom inexplicably disappearing and/or Gasol reacting timidly when faced with big, strong, aggressive players like Shaquille O'Neal or Kendrick Perkins. The third point is somewhat speculative; normally I try to stick to the facts but in this case I am going to propose a theory: the Lakers' "supporting cast" felt inspired to prove a point when Bryant was out and thus played with more energy and aggression than they typically do but now that Bryant is back they will once again revert to being sporadically productive and to depending on Bryant to save the day for them. The "experimental test" for my theory will be to examine how well the other Lakers play during the rest of the season and the playoffs now that Bryant has returned; this has been a major issue for the Lakers this season: after the Lakers' second loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bryant lamented that his teammates
did not play with the same hunger that the Cavaliers did.
There is nothing about the way that Bryant played on Tuesday night that justifies or explains the lack of support that he received from most of his teammates; Bryant did not hog the ball, he did not take bad shots and he did an excellent job of drawing double teams to create easy scoring opportunities for others, while on defense he played with great energy and tenacity. There is no reason for his teammates to look like they are sleepwalking--unless those teammates feel like they proved some kind of grand point when Bryant was out of action and they are now content to simply try to ride his coattails down the stretch.
Labels: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, O.J. Mayo, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 2:51 AM
Knicks Buy Ticket for "LeBron Lottery"
By making a pair of deals that shipped out leading scorer/rebounder Zach Randolph and second leading scorer Jamal Crawford while bringing in the expiring contracts of Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas, the New York Knicks officially bought their ticket for the 2010 "LeBron Lottery." In fact, the Knicks could be so far under the salary cap in two years that they could theoretically offer maximum contract deals to two players.
Although there has been some talk that these trades signify that the Knicks are essentially writing off this season, the three new players are well suited to the uptempo style that Coach Mike D'Antoni favors. It is easy to picture Harrington averaging 20 ppg if he gets enough minutes, Mobley could score in the mid-teens and Thomas--who played for D'Antoni in Phoenix--could be a solid contributor off of the bench. The Knicks are currently tied for the sixth-eighth spots in the East with a 7-6 record and it is certainly possible that they could continue to hover around .500 with their current roster. A major factor in New York's improvement is that D'Antoni banished Stephon Marbury, a move that I've advocated for years.
However, while I disagree with the idea that the Knicks have abandoned all hope until 2010, I think that a few cautionary notes should be considered about what may happen when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and several other top players become free agents.
1) Whenever a max contract player's deal nears completion there is often feverish talk about him leaving his old team for greener pastures but in most cases these players end up re-signing with their original teams.
2) Now that the Knicks will theoretically be able to sign two max contract players in 2010 there is speculation that they will try to pair LeBron James with Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh. Either of those combos certainly looks like a great dynamic duo--but history shows that NBA championships are not won merely by putting together two great players. In fact, sometimes even having three great players is not enough: Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West and Elgin Baylor never won a championship together, though Chamberlain and West teamed up with Gail Goodrich to capture the 1972 crown right after Baylor retired. Oscar Robertson/Jerry Lucas, Wes Unseld/Earl Monroe and Karl Malone/John Stockton are three examples of pairings of members of the
NBA's 50 Greatest Players List who played together in their primes and did not win titles together. You have to have all of the pieces in place to win a championship, not just a couple great players; Robertson later won a championship with Top 50 player Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks, Lucas and Monroe won a ring with the 1973 New York Knicks (who also had Top 50 players Walt Frazier and Willis Reed) and Unseld teamed up with Top 50 player Elvin Hayes to lead the Bullets to the 1978 championship.
It is true that having one or two star players who can take over a game is usually part of the recipe of building a championship team but a championship team also must have a well rounded roster of lesser players who make important contributions. More importantly, a championship team also must have the mentality--and ability--to play consistently good defense. Just look at the teams that have won championships in recent years: the Celtics, Spurs and Pistons were great defensive teams, the Heat was a very good defensive team and the Lakers were a very good defensive team that could be great when it counted, though Shaquille O'Neal's lack of conditioning/effort resulted in inconsistent performances at times. Since 1990,
every championship team except the 1991 and 1993 Bulls and the 2001 Lakers ranked in the top ten in defensive field goal percentage--and the relatively low regular season rankings for the Bulls and Lakers are deceptive because those teams proved to be excellent defensive squads during the playoffs.
3) Turning to more recent history, the combination of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming has yet to lead to a single playoff series win, much less a championship. This year the Rockets added Ron Artest to the mix but so far the most notable thing that they have accomplished--if that is the right word--is the remarkable feat of all three of those players getting injured in the same game. Yes, it's way too soon to write off the Rockets but is also way too soon to assume that they will even make it out of the first round, much less win a championship. Another cautionary tale is the pairing of McGrady and Grant Hill in Orlando. Hill was coming off of the best season of his career and McGrady was a rising young talent when the Magic acquired them in separate deals prior to the 2001 season. McGrady won the Most Improved Player Award for Orlando that year and emerged as a superstar but Hill was hobbled by an ankle injury that he suffered in the previous year's playoffs and never again played at his previous level. Meanwhile, Detroit obtained undrafted free agent Ben Wallace in the Hill deal and Wallace became the rebounding and defensive cornerstone for the Pistons as they made it to the NBA Finals twice, winning the 2004 title by defeating the star laden L.A. Lakers, who had four future Hall of Famers on the roster (Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, an ailing Karl Malone and the shadow of the Glove--call him the Mitten--Gary Payton).
Literally half of the league's teams have cleared salary cap space in the hope of landing James, Wade, Bosh or another star in 2010. Obviously, most if not all of these teams will fail in these efforts--and history suggests that even if a team manages to wrestle a star player away from his old team this does not guarantee winning a championship.
Am I suggesting that teams should not try to sign James, Wade and/or some of the other big name players who will be on the market in 2010? Of course not. What I am saying is that fans--and front office executives--should understand that without the right infrastructure in place a team cannot win a championship. Remember that in 2007, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen each watched the playoffs at home--and their 2008 title run with the Celtics was fueled not only by putting them together on the same team but also by surrounding them with good role players who all understood the critical importance of playing tough, physical, relentless defense.
This means that the Knicks--and anyone else who has bought or will buy a ticket for the "LeBron Lottery--should spend the next two years putting together the foundation for a winning a championship by hiring a defensive minded coach and signing tough minded, unselfish role players. Mike D'Antoni has a great basketball mind and he has been a successful NBA coach but I wonder if his approach can lead a team to an NBA title. LeBron James has already been a part of one defensive minded championship team--the 2008 U.S. Olympic team--and he has seen how a defensive minded approach has helped the Cavaliers become an elite team even without a second star player. I would not be so quick to assume that James is going to leave Cleveland unless the team that is wooing him has a better infrastructure in place to win a championship than the Cavs do; James is going to make tons of endorsement money no matter where he lives and he is smart enough to understand that his ultimate basketball legacy will be based in large part on how many titles he wins.
So much can happen between now and 2010 that it is impossible to say what these players and teams will decide to do when the moment of truth arrives. Injuries and the emergence of new stars and/or new contending teams are just some of the factors that could influence the decision making processes of both the free agent players and their suitors.
Labels: Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, Jamal Crawford, LeBron James, New York Knicks, Tim Thomas, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:43 PM
