Durant Provides Spark Before Getting Injured Again, Warriors Hang on to Beat Raptors, 106-105
The king is not dead--at least not yet. The two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors took a double digit lead in game five, survived Kevin Durant's re-injury and staged a last minute comeback to defeat Toronto, 106-105. The series returns to Oakland for game six and the Warriors still have an opportunity to become the first NBA team since the 2000-02 Shaquille O'Neal/Kobe Bryant-led L.A. Lakers to win three straight titles.
However, this night will very possibly be remembered not for a classic Finals game with a dramatic ending but rather for the moment that might have changed the landscape for the entire NBA--because all signs are pointing toward Durant's injury not being merely an aggravation of his original calf issue but a serious injury that could sideline Durant far beyond just the 2019 NBA Finals. Golden State General Manager Bob Myers' stunning, teary-eyed post-game press conference--during which he described Durant's injury as an "Achilles injury" and implored the assembled media to "blame" him for the decision to have Durant play--strongly suggests that the Warriors fear that Durant has suffered an Achilles tendon tear, which would have huge implications not only for this series but also for the entire league. Rather than providing what was expected to just be an update about Durant's condition, Myers went into great detail about how the entire medical staff, through a "collaborative" effort, cleared Durant to play and that no one is to blame for what happened but that since someone is always blamed in today's world that he--Myers--will accept that blame. Myers did not provide any details beyond confirming that Durant suffered an Achilles injury and will have an MRI on Tuesday but why would Durant leave on crutches with the game in progress and why would Myers be so emotional if this were just a re-injury?
Once Durant's exact condition is confirmed, there will be plenty of time to analyze the decision to let him play and to break down the league-wide implications of that decision but for now we will return our focus to game five and to this series.
In his 12 minutes of action, Durant scored 11 points on 3-5 field goal shooting (including 3-3 from three point range) and posted the best plus/minus number (+6) for Golden State; three of the other four Golden State starters had negative plus/minus numbers, with only Andre Iguodala (+3) in positive territory. We got a glimpse of the reality about these two teams; with Kevin Durant, the Warriors are clearly the superior team but without Durant the matchup is in Toronto's favor, though the Warriors can still generate enough spurts to pull out a win.
Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 10-23 field goal shooting (including 5-14 from three point range), while also grabbing eight rebounds and dishing seven assists. Klay Thompson scored 26 points on 9-21 field goal shooting (including 7-13 from three point range) and, with just under a minute left in the fourth quarter, he calmly drained the three point shot that turned out to be the game-winner. DeMarcus Cousins--pushed out of the starting lineup with Durant's return--stayed ready, and after Durant went down he contributed 14 points and six rebounds in 20 minutes. The Warriors do not win this game without his scoring and inside presence.
The Raptors blew a golden opportunity to clinch a championship and if they do not win this series they will surely rue their awful three point shooting (8-32). Kawhi Leonard had an up and down game by his high standards. He finished with 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists but he also had five turnovers and shot just 9-24 from the field. His personal 10-0 run during the fourth quarter seemed to put him on the verge of clinching his second Finals MVP but the Warriors answered with a 9-0 run and the outcome shifts the focus back to the long stretches during this game when Leonard did not impose his will, which is uncharacteristic for him during this series specifically and during this postseason in general. Still, his presence always had a significant impact and it is telling that on the final possession of the game the Warriors played what could best be called an "anyone but Kawhi" defense: they trapped Kawhi in the middle of the court and showed that, with elimination on the line in a game that they only led by one point, they were willing to live with a wide open shot by anyone else on the court. "Anyone else" turned out to be five-time All-Star Kyle Lowry, whose last second shot from the left corner was not even close.
Lowry finished with 18 points and six assists, while Marc Gasol had 17 points and eight rebounds. Serge Ibaka scored 15 points and collected six rebounds in just 17 minutes.
The start of the game had a different feel from the previous four games, as the insertion of Durant into the starting lineup had an obvious effect on both teams. Durant hit his first two shots--both from beyond the three point arc--to give the Warriors an 11-6 lead. Golden State was up 34-28 by the end of the first quarter. Curry, freed from the responsibility of being his team's best player and the focus of the Toronto defense, scored 14 points on 5-6 field goal shooting, while Durant looked as sharp as ever with 11 points on 3-4 field goal shooting.
Golden State led 39-34 at the 9:46 mark in the second quarter when Durant was helped off of the court and taken straight to the locker room. He suffered the injury with minimal or no contact; he was trying to drive by Ibaka when his lower right leg just gave out, much like it did when he had the original calf injury--but it was evident from his reaction and the reaction of his teammates that this time was different.
Cousins took Durant's place in the lineup and he had an immediate impact. Just like it is stupid to suggest that the Warriors are better without Durant, it is also stupid to suggest that the Warriors are better without Cousins, a four-time All-Star. Cousins is recovering from two serious injuries, so clearly he is not 100% physically and he is not in prime cardiovascular condition yet but he scores, rebounds, passes and knows how to use his size effectively. The Warriors initially extended their lead to double digits after Durant left the game, and if you tilted your head just right you could hear the keyboards of the "stat gurus" clattering as they furiously typed their "Golden State is better without Durant--but Cousins is still a scrub" stories--and then, in the second half, reality struck back hard. Golden State led 62-56 at halftime but the Warriors were outscored 49-44 in the second half, a glimpse of what the rest of this series will probably look like.
A lot of interesting things happened in the second half that will be swept away in light of Durant's injury and the frantic closing minutes but it is worth mentioning a few of these occurrences. Draymond Green picked up his sixth technical foul of the playoffs, which not only could have cost the Warriors this game--and the series--but also means that if he gets one more technical foul he will be suspended for a game. You may recall that a suspension for excessive technical fouls was one factor in Cleveland's comeback versus Golden State in the 2016 Finals. Fred VanVleet was awful in the first half--which is not surprising considering the inadvertent elbow to the face from Shaun Livingston that he suffered last game, a blow that drew blood and knocked at least one tooth loose--but he drained three three pointers in the second half and would have been one of this game's heroes if Toronto had held on to win. The Raptors need timely contributions from VanVleet in order to close out Golden State.
Draymond Green took a second stab at being the goat when he committed a backcourt violation in the last minute of the game. Toronto took advantage of this opportunity with a Lowry layup that trimmed Golden State's lead to 106-105. Then, Cousins committed an offensive foul on Golden State's next possession, giving the Raptors a chance to win on the game's final possession. For some odd reason, the Raptors did not seem to anticipate or prepare for the "anyone but Kawhi" defense. Leonard made the correct basketball play by swinging the ball, resulting in Lowry's baseline attempt that went awry, but if the Raptors had executed better and had better spacing then Leonard would have perhaps had a chance to create a shot for himself.
The Warriors escaped to live for at least one more game and the Raptors have to put this one behind them quickly so that they can embrace the great opportunity they will have in game six to win a championship.
It must be said that some of the media coverage leading up to game five was bizarre. Michael Shapiro of
Sports Illustrated declared that Kawhi Leonard has a chance to join Hakeem Olajuwon and LeBron James on the exclusive list of players who have averaged 30 ppg and 9 rpg during a playoff run. Ignoring for a moment that the 30-9 combination of numbers seems a bit contrived, it is sad that many of those who cover pro basketball know so little about anything that happened in the sport before the mid-1990s. Even without an editor and a fact-checker, anyone who has a basic knowledge of pro basketball history knows Shapiro's statement is false. Off the top of my head, I immediately thought of Bob Pettit, Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, George McGinnis, Bob McAdoo and Shaquille O'Neal. Again, the 30-9 combination is a bit odd--why not 31 and 8 or 29 and 11 if we are not going to use round numbers like 30-10?--but Olajuwon, James and Leonard are far from the only players who combined elite scoring with near-double figure rebounding during the playoffs. For the record, Pettit had one 31-15 playoff season, Chamberlain began his playoff career with four straight postseasons of at least 33-23, Elgin Baylor had four straight playoffs averaging at least 32-13, Abdul-Jabbar had four postseasons with at least 31-12 and Erving averaged 33-20 as a rookie and then 34-12 four postseasons later during one of the most dominant playoff performances in pro basketball history. McAdoo had two playoff runs of at least 31-13, McGinnis had one 32-15 playoff run and O'Neal had three 30-10 playoff runs. No wonder commentators think that everything that is happening now (other than
Russell Westbrook's triple double seasons; those have to be minimized at all costs for some inexplicable reason) is the greatest thing ever; they do not have the vaguest concept about what transpired in previous eras.
Leonard has had a great 2019 playoff run but his playoff run is not in a scoring/rebounding category that includes only Olajuwon and James.
Shapiro's nonsense was just a warmup before reading an article by Greg Cote of the
Miami Herald. Cote declared that if Durant does not lead Golden State to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit then this proves that he is not indispensable, or, as the headline put it, Durant "must now rescue Golden State to save his legacy." It is true that writers do not necessarily write the headlines but in this instance the article's theme was as stupid as the headline. Let's get this straight: if Durant did not come back from more than a month off due to a serious injury and then lead the Warriors to a historic Finals comeback from a 3-1 deficit against a team that enjoys home court advantage then his "legacy" is ruined? So, two championships, two Finals MVPs and an 8-1 (now, 9-1) record in the NBA Finals with Durant compared to one championship and an 8-9 record in the NBA Finals without Durant does not at least suggest--if not prove--that Durant is "indispensable"? Get out of here with that nonsense. It is amazing that people are actually paid to write things that make no sense and have no factual basis.
Durant risked his health to come back, he may suffer for it the rest of his career and if the Warriors win this championship they would not have been able to do it without the boost that he provided--but he still has something to prove, some part of his legacy that needs protecting? That may be the worst basketball "analysis" that I have read since Kobe Bryant was in his prime and media members were dueling with themselves to see who could display the least understanding of his impact and value.
So, what is going to happen next? Michael Shapiro and Greg Cote probably are confident that they can predict this with certainty, but anyone who claims to know what will happen next is a fool. It is obviously demoralizing for the Raptors to blow a six point lead when they were less than three minutes away from clinching the franchise's first championship, but it is also demoralizing for the Warriors to rush their best player back into action and lose him to a possibly serious injury.
Without Durant on the court, the Raptors led Golden State 3-1 and since Durant is surely out for the rest of the series it is clear that the Raptors enjoy a distinct advantage. Will they close out the series in California, or at home in game seven? That is hard to say but the Raptors have shown the ability throughout the playoffs to shrug off tough losses and bounce back--and the Warriors have not shown the ability to win consistently in the Finals without Durant. The objective evidence points toward an eventual Toronto victory but there are good reasons that I picked Golden State before the series without knowing when/if Durant would return; the Warriors are a veteran-laden legitimate championship contender even without Durant and, although they cannot dominate elite competition without him, they can hold their own and have a puncher's chance at the end. It will definitely be interesting to see how this turns out.
Labels: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Stephen Curry, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 1:34 AM
Leonard Leads Balanced Attack As Raptors Subdue Warriors to Take 2-1 Lead
Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished for six assists while leading Toronto to a 123-109 victory over Golden State in game three of the NBA Finals. The Raptors reclaimed the home court advantage that they
lost in game two and they are now two wins away from dethroning the two-time defending champions. All five Toronto starters scored in double figures: Kyle Lowry finally showed up in the Finals (23 points, nine assists), Pascal Siakam had a nice all-around game (18 points, nine rebounds, six assists), Danny Green is no longer missing (18 points, 6-10 shooting from three point range) and Marc Gasol provided physical presence at both ends of the court (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists).
Stephen Curry scored a playoff career-high 47 points while also contributing eight rebounds and seven assists but only two other Warriors reached double figures in scoring: Draymond Green (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) and Andre Iguodala (11 points, six rebounds, three assists). Kevin Durant remains out of action due to his calf injury and Klay Thompson was a late scratch after hurting his hamstring in game two. The Warriors also felt the absence of Kevon Looney, the center who has been ruled out for the rest of the series after injuring his shoulder.
DeMarcus Cousins, who had a strong performance in game two, looked like he was plodding through quicksand while wearing a 50 pound backpack: he scored four points on 1-7 field goal shooting in just 19 minutes. One of the biggest challenges when coming back from an injury after a long absence is to not only reclaim one's former excellence--we saw more than a glimpse of that in game two--but to maintain that level consistently with a body that is not yet 100% conditioned for extended NBA minutes. Cousins can and will still be a factor in this series but he is a wildcard factor, not a day in, day out factor like he was capable of being before he got hurt.
Curry scored 17 points in the first quarter en route to 25 points in the first half and then he scored 22 points in the second half. He is a great player who had a magnificent game but, that being said, we know that if Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook had scored 47 points on 14-31 field goal shooting while only one other teammate attempted more than 10 shots from the field then there would have been endless talk about Bryant or Westbrook shooting too much, not being efficient and not trusting their teammates. That talk would have been nonsense under any circumstances, and particularly with two All-Stars out of the lineup, so no one should nitpick at the margins of Curry's boxscore numbers. Just remember that the media does not apply the same standards to all players.
Speaking of double standards, the NBA must decide what is a foul on long jump shots and then the league must consistently enforce whatever it decides. Now, chaos reigns supreme.
James Harden flops all over the place and is rewarded. Other players are knocked down and nothing is called. Also, Thompson's injury happened when he was blatantly flopping to try to fool the referees into calling a foul; if the league established standards for shooting fouls and consistently followed those standards then there would be no incentive for Harden, Thompson and others to contort their bodies after shooting the ball as if they are suffering from some kind of serious neurological condition.
The headline in some game stories may relate to Stephen Curry's scoring or the absence of Golden State's injured players but no one should diminish what the Raptors have accomplished thus far or the possibility that the Raptors will indeed win the title; after all, Golden State's current run of excellence began in the 2015 Finals when they defeated a Cleveland team that was missing two All-Star caliber players, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love--two players who, not incidentally, were healthy in 2016 and who each played a major role in Cleveland's Finals victory versus the Warriors, the last time that Golden State lost a playoff series.
Injuries are part of the game, unfortunately, and, in any case, based on what we have been hearing about "gravity" for the past month one might have been forgiven for thinking that Stephen Curry could walk on water while creating enough space to carry any four players to victory. There have been a lot of "gravity" statistics bandied about and a lot of numbers cited pertaining to the Warriors' record with Curry and without Durant, so try this number on for size: the Warriors are 1-5 in their last six NBA Finals games without Durant. In case the tales of gravitational pull warped your memory, you will recall that the Warriors are 8-1 in their NBA Finals games with Durant, during which time they won two titles and he won two Finals MVPs.
Toronto quickly jumped out to a 17-7 lead in game three and the Raptors extended that to 28-16 late in the first quarter. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy correctly noted that the early story was "not about (Golden State) being depleted" but rather about "good offense beating bad defense." The Raptors are a championship caliber team and they would be a contending team in just about any season in recent NBA history, and they deserve credit for that, credit that should not be minimized by endless paeans to Curry or constant lamenting about the Warriors' injuries. One of the reasons that few teams have ever had a five year run like the Warriors' current five year run is that few teams have ever enjoyed as much relative health as the Warriors have--and the Warriors have also been the beneficiary of injuries to not just Irving and Love but also to Kawhi Leonard, whose San Antonio Spurs were beating the brakes off of the Warriors in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals before
Zaza Pachulia took Leonard out with a series-ending cheap shot. So, if you are going to say that the Warriors would have won the 2019 title but for the Durant and Thompson injuries then you also must entertain the notion that the Warriors may not have won the 2015 and 2017 titles had the injury gods not favored them in those years.
Leonard is a throwback superstar in all of the right ways. He has Julius Erving's big hands and gentlemanly demeanor combined with Scottie Pippen's suffocating defense and a free throw/three point shooting touch that neither Erving nor Pippen consistently demonstrated. That is not to say that Leonard is greater than either player--such comparisons generate more heat than light and are not the point of this article--but rather that he is a joy to watch for a basketball purist. Leonard makes the right play, he leads his team quietly but effectively and he does not show up the other team or the referees. At the 6:28 mark of the first half, he was whistled for a charge even though Draymond Green was backpedaling and clearly had at least one foot in the restricted area. Leonard did not yell or complain; he just headed back up court to play defense. I don't know why the San Antonio Spurs chose to publicly trash Leonard and poison their relationship with him but that looks like the biggest mistake by far of the Gregg Popovich era. Leonard is a great player at both ends of the court and if he stays healthy he will remain one of the league's best players for years to come.
ESPN's Jalen Rose often says that the "Third Quarter Warriors" are the NBA's 31st team but Leonard kept the "Third Quarter Warriors" in check in game three, scoring 15 points in the third stanza as the Raptors outscored the Warriors 36-31 to pad their lead and, although the Warriors kept battling, essentially clinch the win.
In the next 24-48 hours all of the smoke and mirrors about Durant's current condition will disappear. If there is any way that Durant can play in this series, he will be on the court in game four on Friday. If he does not play on Friday, I would be surprised to see him on the court before next season. I will be very surprised if Thompson does not play in game four and I think that there is a better than 50% chance that Durant plays as well. I suspect that the Warriors thought that they had a puncher's chance to win game three without both players and that they also thought that even if they lost then they could win three of the next four games if both players are available the rest of the way--or, Durant may have actually suffered a season-ending injury that the Warriors will not disclose until the season ends, which could be sooner than the Warriors and the bards of "gravity" ever suspected.
Labels: Danny Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, Stephen Curry, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM
Poor Shooting Predictably Dooms Grizzlies
Earlier this season, I caught some flack for
writing that not only would the Memphis Grizzlies make an early playoff exit due to their lack of outside shooting but that--contrary to popular belief--they did not fit the mold of the proverbial "team nobody wanted to face."
I never said that Memphis is not a good team or even that it would be easy to beat the Grizzlies in a playoff series; I just said that Memphis has a glaring flaw and that because of this flaw if I were an NBA coach I would rather face Memphis in a seven game series than most of the other Western Conference playoff teams.
Given a choice of battling Golden State, Houston, L.A., San Antonio or Memphis, I would prefer Memphis every time. The Warriors perform at an elite level at both ends of the court, the Rockets have a good roster even though James Harden is overrated, the Clippers have a legit MVP-caliber player in Blake Griffin and the Spurs have a championship pedigree. In contrast, Memphis has a plodding, predictable style of play that can be broken down over the course of a seven game series. It might take six or even seven games to do so but it can be done.
Memphis Coach Dave Joerger knows his team's fatal flaw and he mentioned it after Golden State eliminated the Grizzlies in six games to advance to the Western Conference Finals: "We won 55 games, and we have something that other people have to really
scheme against. We found in Game four
that they made a nice adjustment. Basically, they just jammed it up and
dared us to shoot it from the perimeter."
The Grizzlies play hard, they are a good defensive team and they can extend a playoff series against a superior opponent--but they cannot make outside shots and therefore their inside advantage can be neutralized in a seven game series.
Memphis took a 2-1 lead before Golden State rattled off three straight wins but if you understand basketball you never doubted that Golden State would eventually prevail. Memphis relies on slowing the game down and pounding the opponent into submission. A team that pushes the pace, sags off of Memphis' perimeter players and crowds Memphis' big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will beat Memphis every time over the course of seven games because Memphis shoots so poorly. Memphis might wear down an opponent early in a series but in the long run Memphis' big guys wear down because the defense focuses on them and ignores their teammates.
In game four, Memphis shot .375 from the field and .222 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 12-29 (.414). Golden State won 101-84.
In game five, Memphis shot .398 from the field and .267 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 14-34 (.412). Golden State won 98-78.
In game six, Memphis shot .374 from the field and .250 from three point range. Randolph and Gasol shot 12-37 (.324). Golden State won 108-95.
Some people will look back at this series and insist that it was a tough fight because Memphis took two of the first three games but the reality is that this series was not close at all. Golden State dismantled Memphis three straight times.
In the first half of game five, 2015 NBA MVP Stephen Curry shot 5-8 from three point
range, while the Grizzlies combined to shoot 1-7 from behind the arc.
Curry averaged 24.5 ppg in the series, 5.3 ppg more than any Memphis player. He shot .406 from three point
range and he made more three pointers (26) than the entire Memphis team
(25). Anyone who thinks that this Memphis team as currently constructed
is likely to win a championship is misguided.
Labels: Golden State Warriors, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Stephen Curry, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 1:44 AM
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will Not Win the Championship
Many people consider the Memphis Grizzlies to be a team that is well-built for postseason play but in my column at
The Roar I identify the fatal flaw that will prevent the Grizzlies from capturing the NBA crown:
Why the Memphis Grizzlies Will Not Win the ChampionshipLabels: Lionel Hollins, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 5:51 PM
Spurs Sweep Offensively Challenged Grizzlies
The San Antonio Spurs will be well rested when they face the Miami Heat or the Indiana Pacers in the 2013 NBA Finals; the Spurs earned a nine day vacation with their 4-0 sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals. Tony Parker had a magnificent series, averaging 24.5 ppg on .532 field goal shooting while also leading both teams in assists (9.5 apg). Tim Duncan played outstanding defense (3.0 bpg) while also ranking second on the Spurs in scoring (15.5 ppg); he dominated the overtime period in game two and he dominated the overtime period in game three, playing his best basketball in perhaps the two most important five minute stretches of the series.
San Antonio's third option, Manu Ginobili, averaged just 10.0 ppg while shooting a wretched .407 from the field; Ginobili only ranked fourth on the team in scoring behind Parker, Duncan and Kawhi Leonard (11.3 ppg) but he hit some timely shots and his dribble penetration opened up opportunities for San Antonio's three point shooters. Ginobili ranked second on the Spurs in assists (4.5 apg).
As I
predicted,
the Grizzlies struggled to score 90 points versus the Spurs; the
Grizzlies averaged 87.8 ppg, with their two highest scoring efforts
coming in the two overtime games (89 points in game two, 93 points in
game three). The Grizzlies are a well-coached team that plays excellent
defense; if they had not
traded Rudy Gay for spare parts (Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis) then they might have had enough offensive firepower to defeat the Spurs. Prince averaged 5.8 ppg versus the Spurs while shooting .360 from the field; although Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins kept Prince in the starting lineup, Hollins slashed Prince's minutes because of Prince's ineffectiveness. Daye and Davis rarely played during the regular season and, not surprisingly, they rarely played in the Western Conference Finals, logging a combined 25 minutes. Gay's absence--and the uselessness of the players brought in to replace him--meant that the Spurs could pack the paint, making it difficult for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to even catch the ball, let alone score. Gasol averaged 14.3 ppg on .397 field goal shooting and Randolph averaged 11.0 ppg on .302 field goal shooting. Call this the anti-Kobe Bryant effect.
Kobe Bryant's presence and impact boosted Pau Gasol's field goal percentage after Gasol joined the Lakers even though Bryant's field goal percentage is not extraordinarily high; the absence of Gay had a correspondingly negative effect on the field goal percentages of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the Western Conference Finals. This is something that "stat gurus" do not understand: a player who can create shots for himself and others distorts the opposing defense and thus his value cannot be measured just by looking at his individual field goal percentage (or by looking at his "advanced basketball statistics"). Gay is not nearly as good as Bryant but Gay performed a similarly key function for Memphis--and that role inevitably becomes more important as a team advances deeper in the playoffs, because the game slows down and defenses focus on a team's top offensive options. The Grizzlies advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite the Gay trade, not because of it; the Grizzlies survived their first round matchup because the L.A. Clippers are not a championship caliber team and the Grizzlies eliminated the Oklahoma City Thunder mainly because of
Russell Westbrook's season-ending injury.
ESPN's halftime shows during the Western Conference Finals provided great comic relief as baffled "stat guru" apologist Bill Simmons struggled to explain what was happening; it was hilarious to hear Simmons criticizing Hollins for not benching Prince earlier in the series; not too long ago, Simmons predicted a Memphis win, he did a symbolic victory lap because he had praised the Gay trade for improving the Grizzlies and he said that Prince was a better fit for Memphis than Gay.
It will be very interesting to see if the Grizzlies retain the services of Hollins, an excellent coach who publicly criticized the money-saving but strategically unsound Gay trade by saying, "When you have champagne taste, you can't be on a beer budget." Hollins has played a major role in Memphis' steady rise in the standings but his playoff rotation demonstrated that he has no use for the players who the Memphis "stat gurus" acquired in the Gay deal so his vision of how to compete for a championship may be incompatible with the front office's plans.
Labels: Bill Simmons, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:56 PM
Recurring Themes: San Antonio's Game Three Win Over Memphis Featured Familiar Storylines
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best of seven playoff series--and it does not seem likely that the Memphis Grizzlies will accomplish that feat against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs took a 3-0 lead over the Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals with a 104-93 overtime victory on Saturday night. Many of the themes discussed here during the playoffs recurred during this contest:
1)
Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made it clear that he does not agree with the Rudy Gay trade
Tayshaun Prince, who replaced Rudy Gay in the starting lineup, scored seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting and had one rebound in 21 minutes. When Prince and Tony Allen are on the court, San Antonio packs the paint on defense and makes it difficult for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to even catch the ball near the hoop, let alone score. Prince sprained his ankle during the game but he was available for action; Hollins chose instead to often use reserve players Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter in place of Prince and Allen because Bayless and Pondexter provided a spark in game two with their shooting ability. This time, though, the results were mixed, as I predicted when I wrote, "Bayless and Pondexter are bench players for good reason; they are not
equipped to effectively play heavy duty minutes game after game. Bench
players generally play better at home than on the road, so Hollins'
lineup switch may help the Grizzlies win one or even two games in
Memphis but in the long run Bayless and Pondexter cannot undo the damage
that the Gay trade did." Pondexter scored 15 points on 6-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes but he had a -9 plus/minus rating, while Bayless scored seven points on 3-11 field goal shooting in 31 minutes and had a -18 plus/minus rating. If the Grizzlies still had Rudy Gay then Hollins could keep Allen on the court because Gay's presence/abilities would open things up enough offensively to compensate for Allen's lack of shooting range--but this series has shown that when Prince and Allen are on the court together it is very difficult for Memphis to score enough points to win.
2)
Memphis missed Gay's ability to create his own shot/spread the floor
Right after Memphis traded Gay, I wrote, "Gay's field goal percentage has been hovering in career-low territory
all season but his presence still created space for Zach Randolph and
Marc Gasol and he ranked third on the team in rebounds, steals and
blocked shots; Gay provided a lot of value that is not captured by 'advanced basketball statistics.'" During the game three telecast, Jeff Van Gundy repeatedly pointed out that the Spurs' defensive strategy is to smother Randolph and Gasol because the Spurs can just ignore the Grizzlies' perimeter players. Here is Van Gundy's comment after Mike Conley missed a tough runner
on the last play of regulation with the score tied: "That's where you need someone with size and
skill to go get you a shot. To ask Mike Conley to drive it on the
dribble handoff into all that size--it's their best opportunity with the
personnel that they have on the perimeter--but it's also a very
difficult way to play." In other words, Van Gundy agrees with my analysis: it does not make sense for a
contending team to trade a 6-9 player who was their leading scorer for
spare parts.
The scientific method involves creating a hypothesis,
testing that hypothesis experimentally and then modifying the hypothesis
if the experiment proves that such modification is necessary; if
"advanced basketball statistics" were the objective science that its
supporters purport it to be, then those supporters would modify their
hypotheses in light of experimental evidence: in other words, when a
contending team trades its leading scorer because "advanced basketball
statistics" assert that said player is not valuable/necessary and then
the subsequent evidence shows that the team desperately misses said
player's ability to create open shots for himself/others the "advanced
basketball statistics" should be modified to reflect what the
experimental evidence shows. Instead, we can expect to continue to hear "stat gurus" praise the Gay trade for supposedly propelling the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals--when, in fact, the Grizzlies advanced this far despite the trade, not because of it--while ignoring the obvious fact that the Grizzlies sorely miss Gay in this matchup with the Spurs.
3)
The Difference Between Being the Third Option and Being the First Option
Less than two weeks ago, I wrote, "When Manu Ginobili scores 14 points in a half--as he did during the San
Antonio's 97-87 overtime loss to Golden State on Sunday--he is a hero
and a spark plug; when he is not making his shots the Spurs look
elsewhere for scoring punch." Ginobili is not having a great series versus Memphis--or a great playoff run overall--but he played a key role in game three, scoring 19 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in 30 minutes while grabbing seven rebounds and passing for five assists. Being the third option is perfect for a player with Ginobili's skill set; he is talented and fearless but he is too erratic to be the number one option for a championship team. What Ginobili is doing for the Spurs is exactly what James Harden would be doing for the Oklahoma City Thunder if he had not rejected their contract offer in order to get a max deal with Houston; Harden is perfectly suited to be the third option on a championship team but he is a bit overmatched as the first option.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 PM
Coach Lionel Hollins Reveals What He Thinks of the Rudy Gay Trade
For the first 36 minutes, game two of the San Antonio-Memphis series looked like an instant replay of
game one: the Spurs led 51-37 at halftime of game one and extended that margin to 73-57 by the end of the third quarter; they led 46-31 at halftime of game two and still led 76-64 entering the fourth quarter. In game one, the Spurs pulled away in the fourth quarter to post a 105-83 rout but in game two San Antonio's offense completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, while Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins made a shrewd--and very necessary--lineup switch to give just enough of a boost to his team's anemic offense; those two factors--plus a very questionable flagrant foul call that contributed four points to the Memphis cause--enabled the Grizzlies to grind their way to 85 points and force overtime but that just delayed the inevitable: the Grizzlies only scored four points in the extra session and the Spurs took a 2-0 series lead with a 93-89 victory.
Tony Allen deserves an Oscar--and a flopping fine from the NBA--for his acting job after Manu Ginobili fouled him to prevent a layup in the final minute of regulation; Allen rolled around on the floor cradling his head in both of his arms as if Ginobili had caved in his skull with a brick even though replays showed that Ginobili never even touched Allen's head and that Allen did not hit his head on the floor, either. Allen made both free throws and then Mike Conley took advantage of the extra possession by scoring on a tough floater to tie the score with just :18 remaining in regulation. The game's biggest story, though, is not that sequence but rather the fine coaching job Lionel Hollins did as he attempted to strategically overcome the big mistake his front office made by trading away
Rudy Gay, Memphis' leading scorer. Less than two weeks ago,
I wrote, "Maybe the Grizzlies will find good use for the money that they saved by
getting rid of Gay's contract, maybe Davis and/or Daye will develop into
rotation players--but does anyone in his right mind believe that if
Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins were given a lie detector test he would say
that this trade improved Memphis' chances to win a championship this
season?" After watching game two, we do not need a lie detector to figure out Hollins' answer to that question; Ed Davis and Austin Daye were the only two Memphis players who did not play at all, while Hollins benched Gay's replacement Tayshaun Prince--who finished with two points on 1-5 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, compiling a -11 plus/minus rating--and Tony Allen for key second half stretches in favor of Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter. Bayless tied Conley for game-high scoring honors with 18 points and even though Bayless shot just 7-18 from the field (.389) that subpar field goal percentage was somewhat better than Memphis' overall field goal percentage (.340) and much better than either Prince's or Allen's (2-11). Bayless played 34 minutes after averaging 22.1 mpg in the regular season and 20.4 mpg in the playoffs. Pondexter added seven points on 3-6 field goal shooting and he grabbed nine rebounds in 37 minutes after averaging 21.1 mpg in the regular season and 22.7 mpg in the playoffs.
It is foolish to suggest that trading an 18 ppg scorer for spare parts did not hurt Memphis' chances to win an NBA championship but many people stubbornly insist on believing foolish things. Hollins is obviously no fool, because during Memphis' biggest game of this season he rejected the spare parts his team's management foisted on him and instead hoped that Bayless and Pondexter could save the day. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy did a great job during the telecast of both pointing out how San Antonio's defense completely disregarded Prince and Allen when they were on the court--thus clogging the lane and making matters difficult for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol--and also noting that San Antonio defenders were reluctant to leave Bayless and Pondexter unattended, which is why Randolph finally got going a little bit after being a non-factor in game one.
The Spurs' Tony Parker shot just 6-20 from the field en route to scoring 15 points but his deft passing (18 assists) dissected Memphis' defense. Tim Duncan was saddled with foul trouble but he dominated the overtime--scoring six of San Antonio's eight points--and he finished with 17 points, nine rebounds and four blocked shots. Ginobili had a quiet game (seven points, four assists in 29 minutes) but the
beauty of being the third option is that you are not expected to be great every single game--a luxury that James Harden will learn to appreciate the longer that he is away from the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Hollins will no doubt insert Bayless and Pondexter in the lineup earlier than usual in game three and he will reduce Prince's and Allen's minutes but the problem is that Bayless and Pondexter are bench players for good reason; they are not equipped to effectively play heavy duty minutes game after game. Bench players generally play better at home than on the road, so Hollins' lineup switch may help the Grizzlies win one or even two games in Memphis but in the long run Bayless and Pondexter cannot undo the damage that the Gay trade did. Memphis will continue to struggle to score enough points to beat San Antonio.
San Antonio squandered a 2-0 lead against Oklahoma City in last year's
playoffs and Memphis overcame a 2-0 deficit versus the L.A. Clippers in
the first round of this year's playoffs but those were exceptions to the
NBA rule: teams that take 2-0 leads win the series nearly 94% of the
time. Some people may suggest that the second half comeback in game two will give
the Grizzlies momentum as the series moves to Memphis for the next two
games but the reality is that, barring an injury or suspension to a key
player, this series is already over and all that remains to be decided
is how many games it will last.
Labels: Jerryd Bayless, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Quincy Pondexter, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 5:41 AM
Spurs Tame Grizzlies in Game One of the Western Conference Finals
Yes, it's only one game--though game one winners advance roughly 80% of the time in the NBA playoffs--but the first game of the Western Conference Finals went almost exactly as
I predicted the series will go based on the skill set strengths and weaknesses of the respective teams. The San Antonio Spurs' 105-83 rout of the Memphis Grizzlies exposed a lot of Memphis' flaws--flaws that went unmentioned in most "expert" analysis of this series:
1) The Memphis Grizzlies were not able to slow the game down; I said that for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs the final score would have to be in the low 90s but Memphis neither reached that total nor held the Spurs below that total.
2) I wrote that Memphis would struggle to score 40 points in some halves and that it would be interesting to hear what Bill Simmons says at the halftime of the first game when Memphis has scored less than 40 points. Memphis trailed 51-37 at halftime and only surpassed the 40 point barrier in the second half by tacking on eight meaningless garbage time points in the last 1:47. Simmons called the first half the "worst scenario" for Memphis but said that Memphis "still kind of hung in a little bit." No, it was not a "worst scenario"; it was a predictable scenario for anyone who understood the matchups--and since when does trailing by 14 after scoring just 37 points count as hanging in a little bit? The game showed all the signs of the blowout that it eventually turned out to be; I don't expect every game of the series to be a blowout but anyone who watched the first half with understanding would have expected the Spurs to win by at least 20 even after the Grizzlies made a brief third quarter run: the Spurs were completely outexecuting the Grizzlies at both ends of the court and thus Quincy Pondexter's third quarter three point shooting barrage only delayed the inevitable.
3) "Stat gurus" praise
the Rudy Gay trade as if it cured world hunger, solved the energy crisis and conclusively proved that anyone who does not swear permanent allegiance to "advanced basketball statistics" is hopelessly ignorant. The Grizzlies dealt Rudy Gay--their leading scorer who is also one of the top rebounders at the small forward position--and received in exchange Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis. If Daye or Davis appear in a game you can be pretty sure that someone is getting blown out and/or the Grizzlies have lost players due to injury/foul trouble. Prince took over Gay's starting small forward position and has become the 6-9 version of the Invisible Man; Prince was a key contributor to Detroit's championship team--in
2004--but he has lost a step (or two or three) laterally and he was never a big-time scorer. As Memphis' offense died on the vine in game one, Prince contributed six points on 2-5 field goal shooting, one rebound and two assists in 29 minutes. The Spurs felt free to sag off of Prince to protect the paint. I don't know what kind of impact Rudy Gay might have had in this series but I'm willing to bet it would have been more than six points in 29 minutes and I suspect that the Spurs would not have sunk his defender into the paint. Daye and Davis shot a combined 3-8 from the field in game one, mainly during what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."
4) The Grizzlies shot .432 from the field as the Spurs fronted Memphis' post players and also collapsed perimeter defenders into the paint, daring Memphis' non-shooters to shoot and not providing any room for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to operate. Randolph made just one of his eight field goal attempts and posted a -28 plus/minus number in his 28 minutes. One third quarter play symbolized Randolph's utter frustration: Randolph committed an offensive foul by pushing Tim Duncan, the officials did not call the foul and Randolph still missed the wide open layup.
5) While Memphis' offense sputtered, San Antonio executed flawlessly and did exactly what I expected: spread the floor and kill the Grizzlies with dribble penetration leading both to layups and wide open three point shots. Tony Parker led both teams in scoring (20 points) and assists (nine),
putting on a clinic while he ran circles around Memphis' defense. Neither Tim Duncan (six points, 3-9 field goal shooting) nor Manu Ginobili (eight points on 2-6 field goal shooting) did much offensively but Duncan anchored the Spurs' defense, controlled the glass with a game-high 10 rebounds and distributed the ball well (four assists, second on the team to Parker).
San Antonio may not make 14 three pointers in a game again the rest of the series and Zach Randolph will play better but--barring injuries or serious foul trouble--this series is on course to play out like I expected, much to the surprise of all of the "experts" who considered Memphis to be a heavy favorite.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 7:58 AM
San Antonio Versus Memphis Preview
Western Conference Finals
#2 San Antonio Spurs (58-24) vs. #5 Memphis (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Memphis can win if…the
Grizzlies slow the game down, pound the ball inside, and keep the final scores no higher than the low 90s. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are arguably the best power forward/center duo in the league and they must be productive and efficient against San Antonio's Tim Duncan/Tiago Splitter tandem.
San Antonio will win because…the
Spurs are comfortable playing at a fast or a slow tempo; the Spurs can match up with the Grizzlies in a grind it out game but they are too smart and well-coached to rely on this: San Antonio will push the pace and force the Grizzlies to defend all over the court, spreading Memphis' defense with corner three point shooters and attacking the paint with dribble penetration by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
Other things to consider: The regular season head to head record is meaningless; three of the games took place before the
Rudy Gay trade and the Spurs sat out two thirds of their "Big Three" (Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) in the fourth game--though it is worth noting that the Grizzlies only won the latter contest 92-90 even though they were at full strength.
The 2011 first round series when Memphis defeated San Antonio in six games is also meaningless; O.J. Mayo, Sam Young and Shane Battier were key rotation players for the Grizzlies at that time, while Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and George Hill were key rotation players for the Spurs. It is hilarious to hear "analysis" of this series that focuses on some version of "Memphis beat San Antonio without Rudy Gay in 2011 so the Grizzlies won't miss him versus San Antonio in 2013." Both teams have significantly different rotations now, so this series should be evaluated based on the skill sets of the current players and the likely matchups/mismatches.
The Grizzlies enjoyed a favorable path to the Western Conference Finals, beating the overrated L.A. Clippers and then taking advantage of the Russell Westbrook injury to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs essentially had a first round bye
against the sleepwalking, Kobe Bryant-less L.A. Lakers but then they faced a surprisingly tough Golden State squad; San Antonio beat Golden State in a high scoring game one (129-127 in double overtime) and then San Antonio closed out the series in a low scoring game six (94-82)--and that is the key factor in this series: the Spurs can play small/fast and they can play big/slow but the Grizzlies can only be effective with a big/slow lineup.
If Parker and Ginobili attack the paint and set up the Spurs' three point shooters then it will be difficult for the Grizzlies to score enough points even if Randolph and Gasol win the battle versus Duncan and Splitter--and it is not at all certain that Randolph and Gasol will significantly outplay their San Antonio counterparts. Memphis will struggle to score more than 90 points per game in this
series. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 ppg versus the Thunder in the
Western Conference semifinals and the only time they topped 100 points
they needed an overtime session to do it. The Spurs will score more points against the Grizzlies than the Thunder scored and the Spurs are better equipped to match up with the Grizzlies defensively.
Could Memphis win the series? Sure; if the final scores are something like 80-75 and if Randolph/Gasol put up 25-12 and 18-10 respectively while the Grizzlies contain Parker/Ginobili without losing control of San Antonio's three point shooters then Memphis can beat San Antonio--but I expect final scores in the 95-90 range or above and I just don't see Memphis scoring 95 points four times in this series.
Labels: Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, San Antonio Spurs, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 3:10 PM
Requiem for a Contender: Westbrook Injury Sealed Thunder's Fate
In the wake of the Memphis Grizzlies' victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, many theories and explanations have been offered for--depending on how you look at it--why Memphis won/why Oklahoma City lost. It has been suggested that Oklahoma City made a mistake choosing to keep Serge Ibaka while trading James Harden for Kevin Martin. The Thunder had a .712 winning percentage in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, finishing with the second best record in the Western Conference (47-19); in the 2012-13 season, the Thunder had a .732 winning percentage, finishing with the best record in the Western Conference (60-22). The Thunder did not miss a beat without Harden and, in fact, proved to be a better team without him over the course of the grueling 82 game NBA season. Ibaka has led the NBA in blocked shots per game the past two seasons and in
total blocked shots the past three seasons. He finished second in the
2012 Defensive Player of the Year voting and third in the 2013 Defensive
Player of the Year voting. Ibaka
is a very valuable player but he should not be expected to replace Harden's scoring; that is Kevin
Martin's job and Martin filled that role very well, averaging 14.0
ppg on .450 field goal shooting in 2012-13.
The Thunder took a 2-0 lead over Harden's Houston Rockets in the first round but Russell Westbrook--one of the top five players in the NBA--suffered what proved to be a season-ending knee injury in the first half of game two, though he limped his way through the second half of that contest. Without Westbrook, the Thunder struggled to finish off the Rockets--going 2-2 the rest of the series--and then lost 4-1 to the Grizzlies; that adds up to a 3-6 record sans Westbrook in 2012-13 after going 62-22 with him. It should be obvious that the Thunder's problem is not the Harden trade but rather the Westbrook injury. Harden performed markedly worse in the playoffs than the regular season in both 2012 and 2013, so the idea that he could have filled Westbrook's role in the 2013 playoffs is speculation not supported by facts--and if the Thunder had elected to keep Harden then, for financial reasons, they likely would have been without the services of Ibaka, one of the league's top defensive players. Under those circumstances, the Thunder would have been worse off than they are now; without Ibaka they would not have posted the West's best record and they would have been even less equipped to deal with Westbrook's freak injury.
Westbrook has been one of the NBA's most durable players. He will return to action fully healthy next season and the Thunder will most likely once again be the best team in the Western Conference. Barring a major move, Harden's Rockets will again struggle to make the playoffs before losing in the first round.
From the Memphis perspective, it has become popular to suggest that the Grizzlies have benefited from the
Rudy Gay trade but that assertion is a major exercise in denial. Gay is an 18 ppg scorer who is also one of the top rebounders at the small forward position; the Grizzlies traded him for Tayshaun Prince,
Austin Daye and Ed Davis. Daye and Davis rarely play at all, while Prince--who has taken over Gay's starting role for Memphis--averaged 8.8 ppg while shooting .429 from the field
during 37 regular season season games wtih the Grizzlies and he has been even less productive during
the playoffs: 7.5 ppg, .354 field goal shooting. Yes, Prince is a better defender than Gay but you would have to believe
that Prince is by far the best wing defender in the league in order to
suggest that he is not having an overall negative impact in light of his total lack of offensive production. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have dominated in the paint but replacing Gay with Prince has made their job tougher, because opposing teams can leave Prince to trap in the paint--something that opponents would be reluctant to do with Gay on the floor. The Grizzlies beat the overrated L.A. Clippers in the first round and then had to work very hard to defeat the Westbrook-less Thunder in the second round; the Thunder won the first game of the series before the Grizzlies took the next four games, but the Grizzlies achieved three of their victories by just six points each (including one overtime contest) and they won the other game by four points. The offensively challenged Grizzlies averaged 93.6 ppg versus the Thunder but, without Westbrook, the Thunder only averaged 89.6 ppg versus the Grizzlies after ranking third in the league with a 105.7 ppg scoring average during the regular season. In the game five series clincher versus Oklahoma City, Memphis scored 88 points on .370 field goal shooting; Prince contributed eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting and he had a
plus/minus number of -21, which is hard to do when you play 31 minutes
in a game that your team won by four points! Yet Bill Simmons is
gloating that he was right to support trading Gay.
The
reality is that if Russell Westbrook had been healthy then the Thunder
would have defeated the Grizzlies; he would have changed the result of most if not all of the games that the Grizzlies barely won. The Grizzlies would not have been able to survive while posting low scoring totals with poor shooting percentages--and those scoring totals/shooting percentages would likely have been even worse if Westbrook had been on the court, because the Thunder not only missed Westbrook's scoring and playmaking but also his defense: Westbrook would have slowed down Memphis point guard Mike Conley. This series debunked the theory that Westbrook shoots too much and that he negatively impacts Kevin Durant's game; it should be obvious that without Westbrook on the court it is much more difficult for Durant to post his typically efficient numbers. A good analogy for this is how Kobe Bryant improves the Lakers' overall offensive efficiency even though his field goal percentage is usually "only" in the .450 range. What "stat gurus" fail to understand is that Bryant and Westbrook distort opposing defenses to such an extent that they create many scoring opportunities for their teammates; shot creation is something that the "stat gurus" are not able to quantify, so they don't believe that it matters or even exists (which also may partly explain why the Grizzlies traded Gay).
The best thing that can be said about the
Gay trade is that even though it left the Grizzlies offensively
challenged it did not damage their team more than the absence of
Westbrook hindered the Thunder. It will be interesting
to hear what Simmons says when the Grizzlies struggle to score 40 points
in a half in the Western Conference Finals--and they are trailing instead of leading because in that round
they will be playing a full strength contender.
Labels: James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 4:49 PM
All-Defensive Team Questions Answered...Partially
In my
article about the All-Defensive Team voting I noted that the NBA's official press release only lists 149 First Team votes (instead of 150) and that Memphis center Marc Gasol made the Second Team even though Milwaukee center Larry Sanders received more total points that Gasol. I sent an inquiry to the NBA office about these two discrepancies and I have been informed by the league that the missing First Team vote belongs to Kawhi Leonard, who was correctly listed in the press release with two points even though his First Team vote was not indicated in parentheses (a First Team vote is worth two points, while a Second Team vote is worth one point).
I have also been informed that "the coaches' point total for Sanders was for the forward position." The NBA did not provide an explanation for why Sanders was considered a forward in the All-Defensive Team voting. The Milwaukee Bucks' roster at their
official NBA.com website designates Sanders as a center. Sanders is also listed as a center at ESPN.com and every other website/publication that I have seen.
EDIT: After originally posting this article, I reread the NBA's All-Defensive Team press release and noticed that Leonard's First Team vote actually
is listed in parentheses but in the next row of the notes after his point total so that my eyes somehow scanned over it when I initially added up all of the First Team votes. So, all 150 First Team votes were actually noted in the press release from the start--but the positional designations are still odd and that is a much larger concern. Since the NBA considered Sanders a forward, the First Team voting totals are as follows:
Forwards (61):
LeBron James 25
Serge Ibaka 17
Paul George 7
Larry Sanders 4
Tim Duncan 3
Luol Deng 1
Kenneth Faried 1
Nic Batum 1
Metta World Peace 1
Kawhi Leonard 1
Centers (27)
Tyson Chandler 9
Joakim Noah 8
Marc Gasol 5
Dwight Howard 3
Roy Hibbert 2
Guards (62)
Tony Allen 25
Chris Paul 15
Avery Bradley 10
Mike Conley 4
Andre Iguodala 2
Thabo Sefolosha 2
Kobe Bryant 1
Russell Westbrook 1
Mike James 1
Tony Parker 1
If Sanders were correctly listed as a center and if the vote for Mike James at guard was actually a clerical error by someone who meant to choose LeBron James at forward then the First Team votes would make more sense positionally, but even in that scenario the totals would be 58, 31 and 61 instead of 60, 30, 60 as they should be.
Labels: All-Defensive Team, Kawhi Leonard, Larry Sanders, Marc Gasol
posted by David Friedman @ 5:49 PM
Tony Allen Leads All-Defensive Team Voting, Larry Sanders Snubbed for Center Spot Despite Receiving More Votes than Marc Gasol
Tony Allen and LeBron James each received 25 First Team votes for the All-Defensive Team; the NBA's 30 head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position and are not allowed to vote for their own players. A First Team vote is worth two points, while a Second Team vote is worth one point. Allen received three Second Team votes, meaning that only one coach did not select Allen (since Allen's Coach Lionel Hollins is not permitted to choose Allen). Allen's 53 points pace this year's All-Defensive Team. James received one Second Team vote and thus finished with 52 points. James also finished second (to Marc Gasol) in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, which is conducted among media members; Allen finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Serge Ibaka is the other All-Defensive First Team forward (17 First Team votes, 12 Second Team votes), while Chris Paul (15 First Team votes, seven Second Team votes) completes the First Team backcourt. Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah each earned 24 points, so they split the First Team center spot; Chandler received nine First Team votes and six Second Team votes, while Noah received eight First Team votes and eight Second Team votes.
The All-Defensive Second Team consists of forwards Tim Duncan and Paul George, center Marc Gasol and guards Avery Bradley and Mike Conley.
The NBA's official press release states that Larry Sanders finished with 16 points (including four First Team votes); it is not clear why he is not listed as the Second Team center over Marc Gasol, who earned 12 points (five First Team votes, two Second Team votes). Sanders is designated as a center at the Milwaukee Bucks' official website and at every other website/publication that I have seen.
Another irregularity in the press release is that only 149 of the 150 First Team votes are noted; the listed point totals correctly add up to 450 (30 coaches multiplied by five positions multiplied by two points for each First Team vote and one point for each Second Team vote), so apparently whoever put the press release together neglected to account for one of the First Team votes by listing it in parentheses next to the name of the player who received that vote. Also, although the voting is supposed to be done by position, the listed First Team votes do not add up properly. Forwards received 56 First Team votes (LeBron James 25, Serge Ibaka 17, Paul George seven, Tim Duncan three, Luol Deng one, Kenneth Faried one, Nic Batum one, Metta World Peace one) instead of 60. Since Sanders received four First Team votes it really looks like the coaches and the NBA wrongly classified Sanders as a forward. Guards received 60 First Team votes. Centers Chandler (nine), Noah (eight), Gasol (five), Dwight Howard (three) and Roy Hibbert (two) received 27 First Team votes. Those numbers--56 votes for forwards, 60 votes for guards, 27 votes for centers, four votes for Sanders--add up to 147, with the one uncounted vote pushing the total to 148.
The other two First Team votes belong to Andre Iguodala; it is not clear how the voters and/or the NBA categorized Iguodala but regardless of whether one correctly lists Iguodala as a guard (Danilo Gallinari is Denver's starting small forward) or whether one lists Iguodala as a forward (he can play that position, though he mainly played guard this season) the positional numbers still do not add up to 60, 60, 30 (i.e., two First Team forwards, two First Team guards and one First Team center on each ballot) the way that they should. Perhaps these concerns seem trivial but--unless Sanders has suddenly changed positions or unless the listed vote totals are wrong--the NBA should issue a correction and award Sanders All-Defensive Second Team status over Gasol.
As usual,
my All-Defensive Team selections closely mirrored the coaches' choices. The coaches agreed with three of my First Team picks (Allen, Ibaka, James) and six of my 10 choices overall--seven if in fact Sanders actually was voted as the Second Team center even though the press release does not list him as such. I left Avery Bradley and Joakim Noah off of my team because they missed 32 and 16 games respectively; I don't see how Bradley is a valid choice after missing nearly half of the season. I chose Thabo Sefolosha (who finished just four points behind Conley) and Roy Hibbert instead of Bradley and Noah.
I don't understand why the coaches picked Chandler over Hibbert. Chandler made the All-Defensive Second Team last season but this season his individual numbers are slightly worse (6.5 defensive rebounds per game in 2012 plus 1.4 bpg; 6.6 defensive rebounds per game in 2013 plus 1.1 bpg) and the New York Knicks' team defense is worse: the Knicks ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage in 2012 but dropped to 19th this season and they dropped from 18th to 25th in defensive rebounding, though they did improve slightly (from 11th to seventh) in points allowed. Hibbert and Gasol clearly had more impact defensively both in terms of their individual statistics and in terms of their teams' defensive statistics.
Previous Articles About All-Defensive Team Voting
Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting (2012)
Bryant and Garnett Each Earn All-Defensive First Team Honors for the Ninth Time (2011)
Analyzing the Votes for the All-Defensive Team and the All-NBA Team (2010)
Howard, Bryant Lead All-Defensive Team Voting (2009)
Labels: Avery Bradley, Chris Paul, Joakim Noah, Larry Sanders, LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Tim Duncan, Tony Allen, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 PM
Commentators Lose the Thread When Analyzing the Memphis-Oklahoma City Series
Bill Simmons thinks that the Memphis-Oklahoma City series validates the
Rudy Gay trade and Jon Barry thinks that P.J. Carlesimo deserves credit for Kevin Durant's ballhanding skills because Carlesimo played Durant at shooting guard during Durant's rookie season. Paraphrasing Casey Stengel, "Can't anybody here analyze this game?"
The Memphis Grizzlies finished fifth in the Western Conference, defeated an overrated/flawed L.A. Clippers team in the first round and currently hold a 2-1 lead over the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals--but the Grizzlies are poised to advance to the Western Conference Finals not because they traded their leading scorer for spare parts but because one of the top five players in the NBA suffered a season-ending knee injury. The most valuable player for the Grizzlies so far has been Houston's Patrick Beverley, the rookie guard who clipped Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook and shredded Westbrook's knee. Westbrook played in all 82 games and ranked sixth in the league in scoring, seventh in the league in assists and ninth in the league in steals as the Thunder went 60-22 in the regular season. Oklahoma City ranked third in the NBA in scoring (105.7 ppg) and second in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage (.425). The Thunder routed Houston 120-91 in the first game of the playoffs and they beat Houston 105-102 in the second game, with a hobbled Westbrook playing in the second half despite suffering the knee injury that would end his season. Since Westbrook exited the lineup, the Thunder have posted a 3-4 record, splitting four games with the eighth seeded Rockets before falling behind 2-1 to the Grizzlies; the Thunder averaged 96.7 ppg in those seven games. The Thunder miss Westbrook's scoring, playmaking, defense and energy. Kevin Durant is putting up monster numbers sans Westbrook but the team is playing worse overall--and Durant is showing signs of wearing down: in Oklahoma City's 87-81 loss on Sunday, Durant shot just 3-11 from the field in the second half, he only scored two fourth quarter points and he missed two free throws when the Thunder trailed 85-81 with :39 remaining. Perhaps next season we will hear less about Westbrook supposedly shooting too often; it should be obvious that the Thunder need Westbrook to create scoring opportunities for himself and for his teammates. Meanwhile, as Durant runs himself ragged just to keep the games close, Memphis point guard Mike Conley is wearing out Oklahoma City's point guards--something that would not have happened if Conley had to check Westbrook at one end of the court and then deal with Westbrook checking him at the other end of the court.
Westbrook's injury is the number one story of this series. Secondary stories include whatever astronomical numbers Durant ends up with in defeat and the effectiveness of Memphis' Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph duo. What about the Gay trade? Fortunately for Memphis, the absence of Westbrook is so important that it negates the fact that the Grizzlies are getting almost no production in this series from the players who they acquired in that deal: starting small forward Tayshaun Prince (who has taken Gay's spot in the rotation) is averaging 5.0 ppg on .292 field goal shooting and he is getting torched by Durant, Austin Daye has scored three points in 4:52 and Ed Davis has scored two points in 3:08--but, despite these facts, Bill Simmons tells a national television audience that he has to restrain himself from taking a "victory lap" around the ESPN set for supposedly being vindicated about the Gay trade. Simmons apparently thinks that ESPN viewers are stupid enough to believe that trading a 26 year old 18.2 ppg scorer who can create his own shot for a 33 year old player averaging 5.0 ppg and two young guys who are not even in the rotation qualifies as some kind of brilliant move. I hope and expect that the readers of this article are not that dumb. Maybe the Grizzlies will find good use for the money that they saved by getting rid of Gay's contract, maybe Davis and/or Daye will develop into rotation players--but does anyone in his right mind believe that if Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins were given a lie detector test he would say that this trade improved Memphis' chances to win a championship this season? Simmons loves the "stat gurus" and the "stat gurus" hate Gay's game but trying to pretend that the Grizzlies are beating the Thunder because of this bad trade hardly lends credence to the "stat guru" point of view; it just shows that "stat gurus" can be every bit as biased/tendentious as anyone else who is blindly loyal to a particular point of view regardless of contradictory facts.
The Gay trade did not make basketball sense and even if the Westbrook injury lets the Grizzlies off the hook in this round--which it probably will--the Grizzlies will miss Gay in the next round. The Grizziles ranked 27th in the league in scoring (93.4 ppg) and 21st in field goal percentage (.444)--and they are struggling to match those numbers against the Thunder but the Thunder are so offensively challenged sans Westbrook that the Grizzlies are able to keep the upper hand.
Not only is Simmons wrong about the Gay trade--something that will become even more clear next round and in the years to come--but he was also wrong about the deal that actually turned the Grizzlies into a contender; when the Grizzlies wisely traded Pau Gasol to the L.A. Lakers for Marc Gasol, Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie and two first round draft picks, Simmons scoffed, "How was the Gasol trade legal? If I kill my mailman and no one ever
finds out, does that make it legal? Jerry West's old team (Memphis)
gift-wrapped its best player for the team that once employed West for 40
years, taking back a pupu platter (Kwame Brown, a third-string guard
and two crappy picks)." Even if all the Grizzlies had received was Marc Gasol, the deal still would have been good--Marc Gasol is an All-Star and he won the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year award--but one of those first round picks became Greivis Vasquez, who the Grizzlies traded for Quincy Pondexter; Pondexter is averaging 9.0 ppg versus the Thunder while leading Memphis in three point field goals made, which means that he literally is almost twice as productive as anyone who the Grizzlies received in the Gay trade! The larger point is that the Grizzlies figured out that a Pau Gasol-led team would never win a championship, so they started over and put together a deep, flexible roster; shedding Pau Gasol's contract provided the necessary financial flexibility to acquire Zach Randolph and make other moves as well. I was one of the few commentators who did not blast Memphis for trading Pau Gasol; I
wrote, "Obviously, the Grizzlies have hit the reset button and are rebuilding
from the ground up. To do that in the NBA, you need draft picks, salary
cap room and young players. This deal provides all of those things to
the Grizzlies. That does not mean that it will work, though; there are
too many uncertainties: to name just a few, (1) has Brown peaked or can
he still improve, (2) how good will Crittenton become, (3) how good will
Marc Gasol be when he comes to the NBA, (4) who will Memphis choose
with the newly acquired draft picks? All that can be said at the moment
is that this is the right kind of move for Memphis to make, because
there was no future for the team the way it was composed prior to this
deal. In an odd way, there is a slight similarity between what Memphis
is doing now and what the Lakers did with Shaq several years ago; the
Grizzlies are getting rid of their best player and taking a short term
step backwards with the hope of being better off long term, while the
Lakers are shedding some youth in order to make a championship run now." I did not know if Memphis' plan would work--no one has that kind of crystal ball--but I knew that Memphis had made the best possible choice after realizing that Pau Gasol is not a franchise player. The critical difference between the Gasol trade and the Gay trade is that the former broke up a non-contending team with the long term plan of building a contender while the latter weakened the roster of a team that could realistically contend for the Western Conference crown right now.
"Stat gurus" love Pau Gasol's game and they hate Rudy Gay's game, so Simmons will mock the Pau Gasol trade until the end of time and he will tout the brilliance of the Gay trade even when Memphis is struggling to score 80-85 points next round versus San Antonio (I realize that I worked a few assumptions into that sentence but if the Grizzlies eliminate the Thunder then they will struggle to score against whoever they face in the Western Conference Finals). Real science is based on stating a testable hypothesis and then experimentally testing that hypothesis. We have seen Pau Gasol-led Memphis teams go 0-12 in the playoffs. We have seen Pau Gasol be a solid second option on two Laker championship teams. We have seen Marc Gasol become a better, more physical player than his younger brother. We have seen Memphis become a better team than the Lakers in no small part because of the Gasol-Gasol trade. We have seen Memphis get virtually no production from the small forward position since the Gay trade and yet survive so far in the playoffs due to favorable matchups (overrated Clippers in the first round, injury-depleted Thunder in the second round). Any scientifically-inclined "stat guru" or "stat guru" acolyte should concede that Pau Gasol is not as valuable as the "stat gurus" thought he was in 2008 and that--at the very least--it is too soon to say that Memphis benefited from trading Gay; only if the Grizzlies can win a playoff series against a full strength championship contender can it be said that the Gay trade worked (and if that happens--without extenuating circumstances such as injuries or suspensions--then I will revise my hypothesis, because I actually adhere to scientific reasoning, unlike the "stat gurus" who are blindly married to their personal biases).
Barry's comment is ridiculous, too. Kevin Durant's game blossomed
right after the Thunder fired Carlesimo and replaced him with Scott Brooks; the first thing that Brooks did is move Durant back to his comfort zone at small forward. Yes, Durant is now a multifaceted veteran who can operate from all over the court but the last thing that Durant needed as a rookie and as a second year player was to learn a new position when he was just trying to become adjusted to playing in the NBA. Brooks, a former player, understood that even though Carlesimo did not; I had good reason to
predict prior to the 2013 playoffs that Carlesimo would be outcoached by Tom Thibodeau and that Carlesimo's Nets would lose most of the close games in their series versus the Bulls (the Bulls went 4-1 in games decided by eight points or less and the Nets fired Carlesimo after the injury-depleted Bulls won the seventh game in Brooklyn).
Most former players--including Jon's brother Brent--provide interesting insights based on their experiences in the league but this is not the first time that Jon has said something that made no sense: last year he
ranked Paul Millsap and Ryan Anderson as top five power forwards and a few years ago he teamed up with Mike Wilbon to
declare that the Lakers are better off when Kobe Bryant shoots less frequently. There are many refutations of that nonsensical assertion, including footage from
the Lakers' 4-0 loss to the Spurs in the first round of the 2013 playoffs. Bryant did not shoot at all during that series--
he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury after carrying the Lakers into the playoffs--and the Lakers endured their worst playoff defeat in franchise history.
One of the best things about the competitive chess world is that,
as former U.S. Champion Stuart Rachels put it, "...there is no issue about determining who the experts are. In chess,
the experts are the ones who win. In other artistic areas, experts are
harder to discern, and so claims about perception and beauty are harder
to verify." Sadly, this is not the case in the writing business or the television business; anyone who knows the "right" people can get hired and be presented to the world as an "expert," even if what he writes/says makes no sense. Dr. Emanuel Lasker, the World Chess Champion from 1894-1921,
stated this truth even more directly: "On the chess board lies and hypocrisy
do not survive long. The creative combination lays bare the presumption
of a lie; the merciless fact, culminating in a checkmate, contradicts
the hypocrite."
Labels: Bill Simmons, Jon Barry, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 4:16 AM
Memphis Versus Oklahoma City Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#5 Memphis (56-26) vs. #1 Oklahoma City (60-22)
Season series: Memphis, 2-1
Oklahoma City can win if…Kevin Durant channels the 1965 version of Jerry West; after Elgin Baylor suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game of that postseason, West averaged 40.6 ppg in the playoffs to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA Finals. It will take that kind of performance from Durant--plus timely scoring by Kevin Martin and great team defense--for the Thunder to beat a physical, defensive-minded Memphis team.
Memphis will win because…the Grizzlies matched up well even with a full-strength Oklahoma City team; without Russell Westbrook, the Thunder simply are not an elite level squad. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will pound the Thunder inside and the Thunder sans Westbrook will not be able to counter by speeding up the tempo of the game.
Other things to consider: Injuries have been the dominant theme of the 2013 playoffs so far; virtually every team that even had half a thought about challenging the Miami Heat has lost at least one All-Star to a season-ending injury, a list that includes Chicago (Derrick Rose), Boston (Rajon Rondo), Indiana (Danny Granger) and Oklahoma City (Russell Westbrook). The Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs--who are both banged up but have not lost any key players to season-ending injuries--are probably the only remaining teams that can remotely threaten the Heat. I still do not think that
trading Rudy Gay was the right decision--and
none of the players who the Grizzlies acquired for Gay made a
significant contribution in Memphis' first round victory over the L.A.
Clippers--but the Westbrook injury wrote the Grizzlies' ticket to the
Western Conference Finals.
As Oklahoma City struggled to close out the eighth seeded Houston Rockets without Westbrook, perhaps Westbrook's critics began to understand why
Tim Grover said that Westbrook, not Durant, is the Thunder's "Cleaner"--Grover is correct that Westbrook is "100% fearless" and it is glaringly obvious that the Thunder miss not only Westbrook's production but also his mindset/attitude.
Labels: Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Zach Randolph
posted by David Friedman @ 1:06 PM
Durant, James and Bryant Lead as Team USA Beats Spain in Gold Medal Game
Team USA's 107-100 victory over Spain in the Olympic gold medal game answered two questions; we now see the wisdom of how Jerry Colangelo
constructed the U.S. roster--favoring talent, speed, quickness and depth over size--and we now understand why the Spanish players were confident about their gold medal chances prior to the Olympics: when the going got tough, Team USA used a small lineup to fend off a serious challenge from a Spanish team that not only kept the game competitive but had a realistic chance to win until the final moments, trailing by just six with 2:24 remaining.
Statistics from blowouts can be deceptive--Carmelo Anthony's
record-setting 37 point explosion versus Nigeria was an extraordinary shooting exhibition but is not necessarily indicative of his true value--but one excellent way to determine how to rank players from the same team is to see who the coach trusts in a tight game. Kevin Durant played 38 out of 40 minutes versus Spain, Chris Paul played 33, LeBron James played 30 (and would have probably played about four more minutes if not for foul trouble), Kobe Bryant played 27, Carmelo Anthony played 21 and Kevin Love played 18. No one else from Team USA played more than 10 minutes. Durant scored a game-high 30 points and tied for game-high honors with nine rebounds. James once again filled up the stat sheet with 19 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals. Bryant finished with 17 points, two rebounds and two assists; he will turn 34 on August 23 and after the game he confirmed that this was his final appearance for Team USA. Bryant first joined the squad for the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship and the defensive presence that he and Jason Kidd provided in the backcourt helped to right the ship after Team USA suffered several embarrassing defeats earlier in the decade. Bryant went 26-0 as a member of Team USA (not counting exhibition play, during which he also did not lose a game), winning two Olympic gold medals (2008, 2012) in addition to the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship title. Paul's boxscore numbers (11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, two assists) do not completely reflect his impact on the game, particularly during the fourth quarter. Love added nine points and nine rebounds. Pau Gasol led Spain with 24 points on 9-17 field goal shooting and he also had eight rebounds and seven assists. Juan Carlos Navarro scored 21 points, Marc Gasol had 17 points on 8-10 field goal shooting in 17 foul-plagued minutes, Rudy Fernandez chipped in with 14 points and six rebounds and Serge Ibaka made his presence felt in the paint with 12 points and nine rebounds.
Anyone who thought that this would be smooth sailing for Team USA was not paying attention when Team USA
barely defeated Lithuania in Group A play, let alone when Spain pushed Team USA to the limit in the
2008 Olympic gold medal game showdown. Team USA starting center Tyson Chandler scored the opening basket off of a nice feed from Bryant but that play was not at all indicative of how the game would go; Spain rarely made things that easy for Team USA at either end of the court and Chandler ended up with just two points and one rebound in nine minutes. Navarro answered with a four point play (Bryant fouled him on a made three pointer) and Spain utilized a 1-2-2 zone to entice Team USA to shoot jumpers and discourage Team USA from driving to the hoop. After Durant's three pointer put Team USA up 5-4, Spain went on an 8-2 run to build their biggest lead of the game; Navarro drilled two three pointers during that stretch--one after Durant sagged too far off of him and another after Spain collected two offensive rebounds to extend a possession--and Pau Gasol connected on a hook shot. Bryant responded with a three pointer and then Durant made two free throws after Calderon was called for an unsportsmanlike foul for flinging Durant to the ground as he drove to the hoop. Under FIBA rules, Team USA retained possession after the free throws and Bryant hit another three pointer to give Team USA a slim lead that they would retain until the second quarter.
NBC's Doug Collins offered this early take on the action: "The United States has been very soft defensively to start this game." In any form of competition, players and teams have to play to their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses; one of Team USA's big keys in FIBA play is to shut down opposing three point shooters without giving up easy layups: if the perimeter defenders can do that, few opposing players are going to be able to hurt Team USA by playing one on one in the paint regardless of the size of Team USA's players. The one thing that can cause Team USA problems is a squad that executes middle screen/roll plays effectively enough to consistently generate either wide open three pointers and/or layups when someone cuts to the hoop. Collins is correct that Team USA played "soft" defense for much of the first half, neither shutting down the paint completely nor keeping the three point shooters--particularly Navarro--under control.
NBC's basketball coverage during the Olympics was pretty good overall--with excellent analysis by both Doc Rivers during the studio shows and Collins during the games--but it was annoying and inexplicable that even though the games were presented with "limited commercial interruption" the viewers still missed snippets of the action because of those commercials; I'd rather have been subjected to more commercials but see the entire game than to have fewer commercials but miss what could turn out to be key plays. We never saw Pau Gasol's two free throws at the 3:09 mark of the first quarter or a replay of James' foul against him; it is possible to analyze the game without seeing those things but it would have made more sense for NBC to figure out how to squeeze the entire 40 minute game into their two hour or so broadcast window.
Team USA led 35-27 after the first quarter as Durant poured in 12 points--the 15th time during the Olympics that a Team USA player scored at least 10 points in a quarter--but Spain used a 14-2 run (starting late in the first quarter and then carrying over into the second quarter) to go back on top 39-37 after Sergio Rodriguez made a three pointer. Rodriguez and Chandler then each received a technical foul after Rodriguez elbowed Chandler while Chandler was setting a screen and the two players confronted each other. The teams traded the lead until Love hit a pair of free throws at the 5:29 mark to put Team USA ahead 48-44; Marc Gasol picked up his fourth foul on that play and sat out the remainder of the second quarter plus the entire third quarter. FIBA aficionados often brag about the strategic prowess of the FIBA coaches compared to NBA coaches but it was questionable--to say the least--to keep Gasol in the game after he had already picked up three fouls in the first half.
Even with Marc Gasol on the bench, though, Team USA could not create any separation and they only led 59-58 at halftime. Team USA relies on pressure defense to force turnovers and prevent opponents from getting open three point shots but in the first half each team only committed five turnovers, while Spain enjoyed a slight rebounding advantage (21-19) and shot 7-13 (.538) from three point range, a much higher percentage than Team USA should allow. Spain converted their extra possessions from the rebounding advantage/taking care of the ball into three point baskets.
With Marc Gasol out of the game and Team USA finally locking down the three point shooters, the third quarter became the Pau Gasol show: he scored Spain's first 13 points of the stanza and Spain took a 71-70 lead after his three point play. Team USA generated a mini 7-1 burst--a Bryant three pointer, a Durant jumper and two free throws by Bryant offset only by one Ibaka free throw--to go up 77-72 but when NBC returned from yet another "limited commercial interruption" Team USA led 80-76; yes, NBC abandoned a
live telecast of the gold medal basketball game with the outcome very much in doubt during the second half in order to show viewers some commercials and this time viewers missed much more than just a couple of free throws. Pau Gasol scored 15 third quarter points overall but Durant countered with his second double digit quarter of the game (10 points) and Team USA owned a precarious 83-82 advantage heading into the final 10 minutes.
With the game on the line at the start of the fourth quarter, Coach Mike Krzyzewski went with a small lineup (small being a relative term but none of these players is considered a traditional power forward or center in the NBA): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony. That group pushed the one point lead to six before James had to sit out for 4:03 after picking up his fourth foul. Team USA maintained that six point spread with Kevin Love playing center while James was out of the game. Spain shifted to a box and one defense against Durant, quite a show of respect for Durant's skills considering the talent level of his teammates. Team USA briefly enjoyed a 10 point lead after Bryant secured an offensive rebound and made a short jumper but baskets by Navarro and Fernandez trimmed the margin back to 97-91 before James came into the game for Anthony (as usual, Anthony took a seat on the bench for Team USA in crunch time of a close game). James drove to the hoop and dunked with power to put Team USA up 99-91 and he answered Marc Gasol's basket with a three pointer to make the score 102-93 at the 1:59 mark. Paul drew a charging foul on Pau Gasol but James airballed a three pointer that could have sealed the win. Bryant extended the possession by retrieving the miss and throwing the ball out to Paul but Paul missed a three point heave with the shot clock about to expire. After Navarro missed a three pointer, Paul faked out Spain's defense and drove to the hoop for a layup that inspired Coach Krzyzewski to jump out of his seat and celebrate: Team USA led 104-93 with just :53 left. Marc Gasol then scored inside and Coach Krzyzewski made the perhaps premature decision to remove Durant, James and Bryant from the game with :37 remaining; in light of the sometimes bizarre FIBA officiating--on prime display during a game in which each team was whistled for 27 fouls, many of them involving slight, incidental contact--and Team USA's controversial 1972 loss to the Soviet Union, a 104-95 margin is not a 100% lock. Sure enough, Paul split a pair of free throws and Marc Gasol converted a three point play to cut the lead to 105-98 with :19 remaining. Then James Harden split his pair of free throws and Marc Gasol's layup made it a two possession game with :13 left. Collins tried to allay any fears by saying that all Harden had to do was make one of his next two free throws but I cannot fathom why Coach Krzyzewski would take the slightest risk of losing the gold medal just to put a few reserves in the game and/or let his stars receive an ovation. Yes, Harden made one free throw to push the lead to 107-100 but what if he had missed them both and Spain hit a three pointer, stole the inbounds pass and hit another three pointer to force overtime? Admittedly, this is an unlikely scenario but stranger things have happened--and the point is that there is nothing to be gained by risking this at all. The game should have been played out to the very end, with the best players/best free throw shooters on the court--and I don't include Harden in that category on this team because he was cold after sitting out the whole game: the ball should have been in Durant's or Bryant's hands for those final free throws.
Team USA outscored Spain 24-18 in the fourth quarter, with Paul contributing eight points, James scoring seven, Bryant adding four, Durant hitting one three pointer and Harden shooting 2-4 from the foul line to stave off any potential comeback. The most important statistic is that Team USA limited Spain to 0-6 three point field goal shooting in the second half; Team USA controlled the three point shooters without getting dissected by cutters and that is consistently the recipe for Team USA to beat the better FIBA teams. Yes, Pau Gasol had an outstanding third quarter and a great game overall but no one player is going to single-handedly beat Team USA. Team USA strayed from their defensive principles in the first half--or, to give Spain credit, maybe it just is not possible anymore for an American team to lock down a top FIBA team for an entire 40 minute game--but in the second half they went with the small lineup for extended stretches and used their quickness to hold Spain to 42 points, a significant improvement after giving up 58 points in the first 20 minutes.
Despite the slightly disorganized conclusion to the game, this was an excellent win for Team USA against a very tough opponent. Team USA went 8-0 during the Olympics and it is important to keep in mind that, based on expectations, Team USA must win every game, while Spain faced little or no criticism for losing two preliminary round games prior to the gold medal contest. Team USA's players and coaching staff deserve praise for their long term commitment to return the United States to the top of the basketball world and wipe out the dreadful memories of the dreary, listless performances by Team USA in FIBA events from 2002-2006.
Kevin Durant scored 156 points in eight games (19.5 ppg) during the Olympics, breaking Spencer Haywood's 1968 Team USA record (145); Charles Barkley is third on that list with 144 points (1992). Durant also ranked second on the team in rebounding (5.8 rpg) and steals (1.6 spg) and fourth in assists (2.6 apg). Kevin Love led Team USA in rebounding (7.6 rpg) despite only ranking seventh in minutes played; he padded those rebounding numbers a bit in garbage time but he also played some meaningful minutes, most notably against Spain in the gold medal game. LeBron James paced Team USA in assists (5.6 apg) and shot .603 from the field, second best (to Love's .630) among the nine players who attempted at least four shots per game. Chris Paul led Team USA in steals (2.5 spg) and ranked second in assists (5.1 apg). Thanks mainly to his explosion versus Nigeria, Carmelo Anthony finished second in scoring (16.3 ppg) even though he was often on the bench when the score was close. Kobe Bryant seemed to pace himself offensively during Group A play but he still ranked fourth on the team in scoring overall (12.1 ppg) and he increased his scoring during the three potential elimination games (16.7 ppg, including a team-high 20 points
against Australia).
Labels: 2012 Olympics, 2012 Team USA, Chris Paul, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Spain
posted by David Friedman @ 5:15 PM
