Boston Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Finals# 2 Boston (55-27) vs. #4 Cleveland (50-32)
Season series: Cleveland, 2-1
Cleveland can win if…LeBron James continues his historic playoff run and if his supporting cast fills in the gaps at both ends of the court. James averaged 34.0 ppg, 11.3 apg and 8.3 rpg while shooting .553 from the field as the Cavaliers swept the Toronto Raptors in the second round; through two rounds, James is averaging 34.3 ppg, 9.0 apg and 9.4 rpg while shooting .553 from the field.
The Raptors posted the best record in the Eastern Conference (59-23) this season and featured both a top seven offense and a top seven defense but the Cavaliers just dismantled them. Game one was a heartbreaking overtime loss for the Raptors after leading throughout regulation but the Cavaliers dominated the Raptors in game two, held on to win a close game three and then stomped Toronto 128-93 in game four.
This outcome is not only a tribute to James' greatness--and to the ability of Coach Tyronn Lue to change his rotation on the fly in the playoffs (more about that below)--but it is also a devastating end to what had been the best season in Raptors' franchise history. The terms "MVP-caliber" and "elite" have always been thrown around way too liberally--and the body of work for Toronto All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, culminating in that second round debacle versus Cleveland, should remove both of their names from either of those conversations for the foreseeable future. James' greatness does not justify or excuse Toronto's total collapse, a collapse that is either a failure of coaching (not in this case, in my opinion) or a failure of effort/heart/focus among the players--and that kind of failure is largely the responsibility of the team's best players.
As for the Cavaliers, it is not that long ago that they were outscored over the course of a seven game first round series by an Indiana team that is hardly elite by any stretch of the imagination. Did Cleveland instantly become a contender, did James singlehandedly dismantle Toronto or did the Raptors--for lack of a better word--choke? There is probably a little bit of truth in each of those suppositions.
It does seem that Coach Lue has figured out the right rotation for the Cavs; putting George Hill in the starting lineup and shifting Kevin Love to center created a lot of matchup problems for the Raptors but it remains to be seen if those adjustments will be as effective versus the Celtics (or if Lue has further moves up his sleeve).
The Eastern Conference Finals will provide a much clearer answer regarding who the Cavaliers really are. I suspect that they may not be as vulnerable as they looked against the Pacers but I also doubt that they are as good as the Raptors made them look.
Kevin Love (20.5 ppg, .353 3FG%), Kyle Korver (14.5 ppg, .560 3FG%) and J.R. Smith (12.5 ppg, .769 3FG%) provided a lot of help for James versus Toronto after each of those players looked terrible in the first round. The Cavaliers will need strong production from those players to get past the Celtics.
Boston will win because…the Celtics' collective effort and performance will outweigh the individual greatness of LeBron James. Some "experts" thought the injury-depleted Celtics would struggle to beat Milwaukee in the first round but the Celtics won in five games. Even more "experts" were convinced that the Celtics would lose to the Philadelphia 76ers, perhaps overly impressed by the 76ers' season-ending 16 game winning streak (at least six of those wins came against teams that were actively tanking, which is ironic considering Philadelphia's recent years-long tanking "Process"). Boston jumped out to a 3-0 lead and closed out the 76ers in five games.
How is Boston succeeding without injured All-Stars Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward? No NBA team goes far without talented players. The Celtics have Al Horford, a strong two-way player whose individual statistics often do not fully capture his impact on winning. The Celtics also have a rising corps of young, scrappy players such as Terry Rozier (24 years old), Jayson Tatum (20), Jaylen Brown (21) and Marcus Smart (24). Those five players--plus 28 year old Marcus Morris--lead a balanced scoring attack, with each player averaging at least 10.6 ppg during the playoffs but no player averaging more than Tatum's 18.8 ppg. That depth and versatility makes it difficult to stop the Celtics. The Celtics are also strong defensively, with several individual plus defenders and a very strong defensive game plan.
That game plan comes from the mind of Coach Brad Stevens, who Horford called a "genius" during the Philadelphia series. Stephens has emerged as one of the NBA's top coaches. Unlike even some of the other top coaches, Stephens is an adept strategist at both ends of the court. He is consistently able to accentuate his players' individual strengths while hiding their weaknesses.
Boston's success is not a fluke and the Celtics will not be an easy out for anyone.
Other things to consider: Conventional wisdom would favor the team with home court advantage--not only because having an extra game at home provides a significant edge but also because that team proved to be better and more consistent over the 82 game regular season schedule. While it may seem that the most important aspect of home court advantage is having a potential game seven at home, it should be noted that game one winners win an NBA playoff series about 80% of the time. The adage about a series not beginning until the road team wins is not statistically or historically correct. Boston earned home court advantage by being more consistent than Cleveland and if the Celtics capture the first two games at home then the Cavaliers will face a lot of pressure to not only "defend" home court but to also win a pivotal game five in Boston.
On the other hand, conventional wisdom would also favor the team that has the best player. James is obviously the best player in this series; some voices are now contending that James is the best player of all-time, a statement that is impossible to prove--but James is without question a member of pro basketball's Pantheon and he has been for quite some time.
A great basketball player can impact team success to a much larger extent than a great baseball player or a great football player but even the greatest players need at least some help to win a championship. This season the Cavaliers remade their roster more than once in an attempt to surround James with the right supporting cast. No matter which combinations they tried, the defense was subpar but that seems to have changed during the playoffs.
It is possible that the Cavaliers have figured everything out after a season marred by injuries, dissension and several roster moves. Coach Lue's current starting rotation of LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith and George Hill did not play together during the regular season but was extremely effective versus the East-leading Raptors.
James may also be the modern-day Shaquille O'Neal; O'Neal was blessed with so much size and physical talent that he could, at times, coast during the regular season only to turn up his level during the postseason. While James had a very good regular season on paper, it was obvious that his effort and intensity were below par--especially on defense. The Cavaliers had a solid month when they actually performed better when he was not on the court, which is unheard of during James' career (and very unusual for an MVP level player).
If James is the modern-day O'Neal and if the Cavaliers have figured things out, then the Celtics could be in trouble. Picking a depleted Celtics team against a surging LeBron James may be foolish and may look ridiculous a week or two from now--but I just believe that the regular season means something, that building habits over an extended period of time matters and that the Celtics have been underrated all season.
Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, Terry Rozier
posted by David Friedman @ 4:38 PM
