20 Second Timeout

Tatum Outshines Doncic and James as Celtics Beat Lakers, 111-101

Less than a week ago, I cautioned that before the L.A. Lakers are deemed to be legitimate championship contenders we need to see a larger sample size of games from them--and some games pitting the Lakers versus legitimate championship contending teams. ESPN termed Saturday night's clash featuring the Lakers versus the Boston Celtics to be the game of the year. At least ESPN did not call it the game of the century, though perhaps that would have happened after the game if the Lakers had prevailed to sustain the narrative of the past few weeks that the Lakers are the best team in the league. As it turns out, the Celtics built a 22 point lead, let the Lakers back in (thank you, high variance three point shooting), and then settled for a 111-101 victory.

ESPN devoted most of its pre-game hype to the Lakers' LeBron James and Luka Doncic, but greatness is determined by what happens on the court, not what is said in ESPN's studio--and, on the court, Boston's Jayson Tatum authored a masterful performance with a game-high 40 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. It will be interesting to see if the best player on the reigning NBA champions--a team that currently has the third best record in the league--cracks the top five in regular season MVP voting, an honor that is selected by people who often seem to be more swayed by hype and narratives than by objective evidence. Tatum does not hype himself, and he does not have a team of sycophants hyping him up; he just shows up and produces. Jaylen Brown added 31 points and six rebounds, while Al Horford made his presence felt with 14 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. 

Doncic scored a team-high 34 points, but he also had a game-high five turnovers and a game-worst -19 plus/minus number. James had 22 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high nine assists, but he had a -11 plus/minus number before sitting out the final 6:44 with a groin injury. The Celtics led 94-85 when James left the game, and the Lakers pulled to within four (99-95) on a Doncic three pointer with 4:36 remaining, but in a little over two minutes the Celtics built the margin back up to 10 and they led by double digits the rest of the way.

The Lakers were without the services of injured starting center Jaxson Hayes, but the Celtics were without the services of injured starting center Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is a former All-Star with career averages of 19.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg; Hayes has career averages of 6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, and .7 bpg while starting just 71 of his 351 career games. If both teams had been at full strength, the Celtics would have enjoyed even more matchup advantages than they did in this game, particularly in the paint. The Lakers went 20-4 in their 24 previous games, and during that run they ranked first in the NBA in paint points (44.3 per game), but the Celtics outscored the Lakers 48-38 in the paint. 

TNT's Charles Barkley famously said earlier this season "The Lakers stink," and he only backed down partially in the wake of the Lakers' recent surge, noting that the season started last October, not in January--the point being that to win a championship a team must maintain greatness for a sustained period. There are valid reasons to question whether the Lakers can win the four playoff series necessary to claim the NBA title, including their lack of size, James' age (he is the most remarkable 40-plus year old NBA player ever, but the clock is going to strike midnight sooner rather than later), and Doncic's health (he has been dogged by nagging injuries throughout this season). The Lakers' lack of size puts extra pressure on James and Doncic to rebound and defend, which in turn makes it more likely that they will get worn down and/or injured. 

James is an all-time great, but is he better than Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jayson Tatum right now? To win the 2025 NBA title, James might have to outduel all three of those players--and the strong teams that they lead in Denver, Oklahoma City, and Boston respectively. The Cleveland Cavaliers do not have a player of the caliber of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Tatum but Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are having All-NBA caliber seasons, and the Cavaliers have other excellent players, including Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen.

The Lakers did not look like a well-coached team when they started the season 13-9, but now the prevailing narrative is that J.J. Redick is a great coach, and any evidence to the contrary is just ignored. During the first half--before the Celtics took over the game--ESPN's Richard Jefferson listed his buddy Redick among potential Coach of the Year candidates, but omitted Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson; all Atkinson has done is lead the Cavaliers to an NBA-best 53-10 record after the Cavaliers went 48-34 last season. Unlike the Lakers, the Cavaliers have been consistently great this season.

The amazing thing about Redick's Lakers is that they never have the wrong defensive scheme or overall game plan; if the Lakers fail, it is 100% the players' fault--and if you are not sure about that, just ask Redick or his media buddies like Jefferson, and they will set you straight. On a more serious and less sarcastic note, ESPN's Bob Myers--frequently the lone voice of a reason on a studio show including "Screamin' A" Smith and Kendrick Perkins--pointed out the incredibly low percentage that the Lakers' opponents have shot on wide open attempts, which Myers called "L-U-C-K." Another word for a defense that has been successful despite giving up a slew of uncontested shots is "Unsustainable." The Celtics shot worse than they usually do from three point range and the free throw line, and they still beat the Lakers by double digits.

There is no doubt that the Lakers are better now than they were at the start of the season. The 26 year old Doncic made the All-NBA First Team each of the past five seasons with Dallas before the Lakers acquired him last month, and he is an upgrade over the 31 year old Anthony Davis (even before Davis suffered yet another injury). However, the Lakers have a lot to prove before they jump the line ahead of teams that have been great all season, including Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Boston.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, J.J. Redick, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 12:43 AM

9 comments

Boston Celtics Cap Dominant Season With Dominant Win Over Dallas Mavericks

The Boston Celtics led wire to wire en route to posting a 106-88 game five win over the Dallas Mavericks to clinch an NBA record 18th championship. The Celtics notched just the third wire to wire win in an NBA Finals series-clincher since 1982, joining the 1982 L.A. Lakers and the 1986 Boston Celtics. The Celtics led by as many as 26 points in game five, and their lead never fell below 17 during the second half. 

Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 31 points on 11-24 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 11 assists, snaring eight rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He played a game-high 45 minutes, and he set the tone from opening tip to final buzzer while joining Walt Frazier (1970), James Worthy (1988), Michael Jordan (1991), and Stephen Curry (2017) as the only players to have at least 30 points and at least 10 assists in a Finals-clinching win.

Tatum has been much maligned by many media members--even during what turned out to be a 16-3 postseason run culminating in a championship--so it should be noted that Tatum led the Celtics in points (25.0 ppg), rebounds (9.7 rpg), and assists (6.3 apg) during the 2024 playoffs; even when Tatum is not scoring efficiently, his fingerprints are on everything that the Celtics do at both ends of the court: he is an elite defensive rebounder, he is an excellent playmaker, and even on the scoring plays for which he does not receive an assist he draws the double teams that create open shot opportunities for his teammates. He is the team's one indispensable player, and he led the Celtics in scoring (22.2 ppg), rebounding (7.8 rpg), and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals. Tatum has now won 68 career playoff games, fourth most all-time for a player younger than 27 behind only Kobe Bryant (76), Tony Parker (75), and Magic Johnson (70). Bryant, Parker, and Johnson each won three championships before the age of 27, while this championship is Tatum's first--but winning multiple championships before age 27 is the exception, not the rule, and Tatum now has won one more championship than six-time champion Michael Jordan and four-time champion LeBron James had won at age 26. 

Jaylen Brown added 21 points on 7-23 field goal shooting, plus eight assists and six rebounds. Tatum is Boston's best and most complete player, but Brown's consistency helped him to earn the 2024 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after winning the 2024 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Throughout the NBA Finals, Brown played excellent defense versus Luka Doncic in addition to providing his customary contributions as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. Brown averaged 20.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 5.0 apg during the NBA Finals, but he outshot Tatum from the field (.440 to .388), and that probably made the difference in the Finals MVP voting. Brown averaged 23.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 3.3 apg during the 2024 playoffs while shooting .516 from the field.

Jrue Holiday had 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, a team-high 11 rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number, giving the Milwaukee Bucks yet another reason to rue trading him to Portland for Damian Lillard, which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday. Holiday has been a key contributor for two of the past four NBA champions, as he helped Milwaukee capture the 2021 title.

Al Horford, a five-time All-Star in his 17 season NBA career, had nine points and nine rebounds in game five and won his first NBA title after playing 1086 regular season games and 186 playoff games. Tatum and Brown are Boston's headliners, but Horford is a highly respected veteran who is still logging impactful minutes as a 38 year old.

Kristaps Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf injury, made a sensational return to action in game one of the NBA Finals, and then suffered a lower left leg injury late in game two that forced him to miss games three and four. He scored five points in 16 minutes off of the bench in game five, and his +8 plus/minus number indicates that he had a positive impact during his limited minutes. It is likely that Porzingis will need surgery followed by months of recovery time now that the season is over.

Joe Mazzulla (35) is the youngest coach to win an NBA title since Bill Russell served as the player-coach for the 1969 Boston Celtics. Tatum is 26, and Brown is 27, so the Celtics--who have already reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight years--are in great position to contend for championships for the next several years. Their 16-3 playoff record in 2024 is the second best since the NBA went to its current postseason format of four seven game series in 2003, trailing only the 16-1 mark posted by the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry 2017 Golden State Warriors.

Luka Doncic scored a team-high 28 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, grabbed a game-high 12 rebounds, and passed for five assists. The only blemish on his stat line was a game-high seven turnovers--matching Boston's team total--and it is fair to say that this game was a microcosm of the series: Doncic played well against the league's best defense, but the Celtics had the necessary personnel and scheme to guard him one on one without fearing what any of Doncic's teammates would do. Anyone who watched the playoffs knows that Doncic played through an assortment of injuries without making excuses, and after game five he refused to discuss the extent of his injuries, concluding simply that he has to play better. There are many stars who would not have played through injuries the way that Doncic did, and many of the stars who might have played through injuries would certainly have not missed an opportunity to remind everyone just how injured they were: after being swept in the 2018 NBA Finals, LeBron James hastened to mention that he "pretty much played with a broken hand." James never clarified if his hand was actually broken or just "pretty much" broken, and it should be noted that the injury was self-inflicted: James punched a whiteboard after losing game one of that series. It is refreshing to not hear from Doncic how he "pretty much" played through whatever was ailing him.

ESPN's J.J. Redick has repeatedly called Kyrie Irving a "wizard," and Redick joins the chorus praising Irving as the most skilled ballhandler of all-time--but all of that so-called wizardry resulted in 15 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in game five, including 0 points on 0-3 field goal shooting in the first quarter as the Celtics took command and never looked back. Irving averaged 19.8 ppg on .414 field goal shooting during the series, numbers well below what the Mavericks needed from him. Irving was particularly bad during the three games played in Boston, and he candidly admitted that the pressure of playing in front of his former team's fans got the best of him. There is a difference between being a flashy ballhandler versus having the necessary ballhandling skills to defeat a championship-level defense, a distinction that Redick and many others fail to understand or acknowledge. It will be interesting to see how many media members continue to force feed us the Kyrie Irving redemption narrative while ignoring Irving's unrepentant antisemitism and the fact that his Chinese shoe company profits from utilizing slave labor.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and this game was no exception: the Celtics led 28-18 after the first 12 minutes, and the outcome was never in serious doubt the rest of the way. Every Boston starter had at least eight rebounds as the Celtics outrebounded the Mavericks, 51-35. We are told so much about "pace and space" and "small ball," but the Celtics won this championship by exploiting their old school advantages in size, defense, and versatility that I emphasized in my series preview.

The Celtics enjoyed a dominant 2023-24 regular season, posting a 64-18 record and the fifth best point differential (11.3 ppg) of all-time, and they went 12-3 during the first three rounds of the playoffs--but many pundits tried to convince themselves (and others) that the Mavericks would beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals, and that noise became louder after Dallas routed Boston in game four. If the overrated concept of momentum had any validity, then Dallas would have won game five--or at least been competitive in game five--but this series demonstrated yet again that the NBA playoffs are about matchups, not momentum. After Dallas' game four win, ESPN's Brian Windhorst blasted Doncic--who has emerged as a perennial MVP candidate--as someone who will never win a championship without dramatically changing his game, and other ESPN talking heads spent much of the time between games four and five talking about the potential implications of a Dallas win in game five. The Mavericks did not make some brilliant game four adjustments, nor did the Celtics make some brilliant game five adjustments. The reality is that the Mavericks were content to not be swept on their court, and they did not offer much resistance in game five; the Mavericks' one win was an outlier that did not alter the fact that the Celtics enjoyed significant, decisive matchup advantages.

The Celtics earned this championship without tanking, load management, or building a "super team": they drafted two strong prospects--Brown and Tatum--and then not only patiently developed those prospects into stars, but they built around those stars while tuning out the loud voices who asserted that this duo could never lead the Celtics to a title. The Celtics' patience and wisdom has been rewarded with a championship, and it would not be surprising if the Celtics win multiple titles if they continue to demonstrate patience and wisdom.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM

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Celtics Rally From 18 Point Deficit to Put Pacers in 3-0 Hole

Jrue Holiday--who was so sick earlier in the day that he missed shootaround--scored Boston's last five points in the final 38.9 seconds as the Celtics recovered from an 18 point deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers 114-111 and take a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead. Holiday finished with 14 points, nine rebounds, three assists and three steals, but Boston's biggest star overall was Jayson Tatum, who had a game-high 36 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. Jaylen Brown had another strong performance (24 points on 10-18 field goal shooting), and soon to be 38 year old Al Horford had his second flashback performance in the past four games with 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocked shots. Horford shot 8-14 from the field, including 7-12 from three point range. Derrick White added 13 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and three steals as all five Boston starters scored at least 13 points. Boston's bench is depleted with Horford taking the starting spot of the injured Kristaps Porzingis, but Boston still has the league's best starting five.

Andrew Nembhard led the Pacers in scoring (32 points) and assists (nine). T.J. McConnell had an excellent game off of the bench (23 points, nine rebounds, six assists and just one turnover in 29 minutes). Myles Turner added 22 points while tying Tatum for game-high rebounding honors with 10. Pascal Siakam scored 22 points and dished for six assists. That quartet played very well, but the other Pacers combined to score just 12 points on 6-19 (.316) field goal shooting. The Pacers' ball movement, player movement, shooting, and passing were impeccable for the first two and a half quarters, but they did not maintain that high level execution in the game's final 18 minutes.

When Indiana's All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton was sidelined with a hamstring injury during Boston's 126-110 game two win, it looked as if Boston would have an easy path to two more victories to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals--and Boston seemed to confirm that view by storming to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but then Indiana outscored Boston 49-22 to take a 64-46 second quarter lead. The Pacers led 69-57 at halftime, shooting .636 from the field in a performance reminiscent of their sizzling shooting in their game seven win versus the New York Knicks.

It is easy to criticize the Celtics for taking things for granted and losing focus, but the Pacers should also get credit; they have several very talented players other than Haliburton, and those players played very well, but they just could not quite sustain that level for the entire game, particularly after the Celtics' defensive energy and intensity went up a notch down the stretch in the third quarter. The Pacers led 84-66 at the 6:04 mark of the third quarter, but the Celtics cut that lead in half and entered the fourth quarter trailing 90-81. 

The Pacers never regained a double digit lead, and the Celtics chipped away during the final stanza, culminating in Holiday's two game-winning plays; his driving basket/three point play gave the Celtics their first lead (112-111) since the opening moments of the second quarter. After the teams exchanged misses, Holiday stole the ball from Nembhard and made two free throws to push the Celtics' advantage to 114-111. The Pacers called a timeout after Holiday's second free throw, and they ran an interesting inbounds play with 1.7 second left: four Pacers lined up in the backcourt like NFL wide receivers, and then they ran "crossing patterns" as they sprinted past midcourt, freeing Nesmith to take a corner three pointer; it is difficult to get off a quality shot against a good defensive team when you need a three pointer to tie with less than two seconds left, but the Pacers executed that situation as well as possible. As the saying goes, it is a make or miss league, and Nesmith missed.

Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle vowed after the game that the Pacers will go after the Celtics with even more intensity in game four--but the reality is that no NBA team has ever won a playoff series after trailing 3-0, and it is difficult to see the Pacers making such history under any circumstances, let alone without Haliburton.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Nembhard, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:23 AM

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Warriors Ride Late Third Quarter Run to Blowout Victory

The Boston Celtics won game one of the NBA Finals convincingly and they were within striking distance of a game two victory before the Golden State Warriors hit them with a 19-2 run in the final 4:58 of the third quarter. The Celtics never recovered, and the Warriors won 107-88 to tie the series at one game apiece as the action shifts to Boston for games three and four. The main story of game two was Golden State's excellent defense (or Boston's bad offense, depending on how you view it); the Warriors' offensive efficiency improved little from game one, but Boston's offensive efficiency cratered from 120 points on .506 field goal shooting to 88 points on .375 field goal shooting.

It is not surprising that the Warriors responded to their game one loss by being more energetic and physical in game two, but it is surprising that Draymond Green is permitted to repeatedly throw opposing players to the ground, hit opposing players with forearms and/or elbows aimed above the neck, and instigate confrontations while only being punished with one technical foul. As ABC's Jeff Van Gundy has repeatedly noted, there is a bizarre double standard that works in Green's favor: Green is expected to behave poorly, so he is therefore given a benefit of the doubt that is not given to players who are more mild-mannered. Had another player fouled a three point shooter, landed on top of the shooter, rested his legs on the opposing player, and then grabbed the opposing player's shorts after the opposing player pushed his legs aside--as Green did to Jaylen Brown late in the second quarter--that player would have received a technical foul; unfortunately, because Green was the offender here and he had already received a technical foul, the referees assessed no penalty. Basically, after Green received his first technical foul he had a license to commit any mayhem short of a flagrant foul without being penalized. In the good old days, the game was more physical than this and yet also more sensibly officiated: players had a lot contact when the ball was live, but dead ball contact was not tolerated, and the issuance of a first technical foul was not a license to commit future mayhem but a warning that you are one false step away from being ejected. 

If Green behaves in a similar way in a subsequent game and receives an ejection and/or suspension, no one should sympathize with him or the Warriors; Green pushes the envelope deliberately and repeatedly, so he, his team, and his team's fans have to accept the logical consequences of his actions. That is why I dismiss as irrelevant the notion that the Warriors would have won the 2016 NBA Finals if Green had not been suspended for one game during that series: being suspended is a logical consequence of how Green behaves, so if/when he is suspended no one should be surprised or sympathetic. Green and the Warriors apparently believe that the benefits that Green provide outweigh the risks of him being ejected and/or suspended.

I have no problem with the Warriors (or any other team) pressuring the ball, being physical (within the rules) with cutters, and playing with great energy--but much of what Green does is not physical but just cheap (if not dirty). Again, in the gold old days there were ways to deal with such conduct; one way was to put your 10th, 11th, or 12th man in the game, and make sure that he squared off with the offender: maybe the reserve would crack the offender with a hard screen, maybe he would get in his face, but the message would be clear that the offender needed to settle down, or else risk getting caught up in a fracas with a player whose basketball value is minimal. 

Instead, in game two the referees gave Green a metaphorical license to kill, and the Celtics seemed puzzled about how to respond; it looked and felt like at a certain point the Celtics just gave in and figured, "We already took home court advantage, and we can finish this series at home even if we don't win game two." I am not suggesting that the Celtics should take that approach or even that they took that approach consciously, but rather I am suggesting that it is human nature to be a bit satisfied with a 1-1 road split as opposed to digging deep to win a second road game against a very determined team.

Stephen Curry led the Warriors in scoring for the second straight game, netting 29 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, including 5-12 from three point range. Jordan Poole added 17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Kevon Looney contributed 12 points on 6-6 field goal shooting, plus a team-high seven rebounds. Looney had a +24 plus/minus number, tying Curry and Otto Porter Jr. (who had just three points in 15 minutes) for game-high honors. Klay Thompson (11 points on 4-19 field goal shooting) and Andrew Wiggins (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting) were Golden State's other double figure scorers. Green led the Warriors in histrionics while posting yet another "triple single" (nine points, seven assists, five rebounds) with a +7 plus/minus number.

Jayson Tatum topped the Celtics with 28 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, but he had a game-worst -36 plus/minus number, and his scoring total had more empty calories than nourishment, much like Curry's game one performance; both players scored a lot early during their respective big performances, but then disappeared down the stretch when the opposing team blew the game open. Jaylen Brown added 17 points on 5-17 field goal shooting but he was a non-factor in the second half. Derrick White (12 points on 4-13 field goal shooting) was the only other Boston player who scored more than six points. Game one heroes Al Horford and Marcus Smart disappeared in game two, finishing with two points each while combining to commit seven turnovers.

Did the Warriors make some incredible adjustment between games--or at halftime of game two--that changed everything? No; what we saw is the home team play with great desperation to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole, while the road team fought for a while before giving in and setting their sights on game three.

It is amusing to observe the game to game overreactions during an NBA playoff series; when a team wins, commentators act as if there is no way to imagine the other team ever winning another game, and then when the other team bounces back commentators act as if there is no way to imagine the first team ever winning another game. I never expected or predicted that the Celtics would sweep the Warriors, so a Golden State home win does not change my belief that the Celtics are the superior team that will eventually take the series. Frankly, a game two win by the Celtics would have been at least a mild surprise to me, because then the series would be unlikely to last six games, which is how long I expect the series to last. The so-called "momentum" from game two will last about as long and mean about as much as the so-called "momentum" from game one; game three will be a separate entity played in a different venue with a different officiating crew, and it is almost always the case that role players perform better at home than on the road. One trend worth noting is that the Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in the 2022 playoffs.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:07 AM

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Celtics Prove to be Road Warriors, Rally from 15 Point Deficit to Beat Golden State

Stephen Curry had his way early, but he and his teammates disappeared late as the Boston Celtics outscored the Golden State Warriors 40-16 in the fourth quarter to win game one of the NBA Finals, 120-108. The Celtics tied the NBA Finals record for point differential in a quarter. Al Horford led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-12 field goal shooting, including 6-8 from three point range, and he had 11 fourth quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown added 24 points on 10-23 field goal shooting, and he initiated the Celtics' fourth quarter rally, finishing with 10 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting. Derrick White provided a major lift off of the bench with 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Marcus Smart played a very efficient game (18 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, five rebounds, four assists, no turnovers in 30 minutes). Jayson Tatum struggled with his shot (12 points on 3-17 field goal shooting) but he had a game-high 13 assists, repeatedly finding open teammates when the Warriors trapped him.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, but this series may be a fourth quarter series as the Celtics use their size and physicality to wear down the Warriors. Curry scored 21 points on 7-9 field goal shooting in the first quarter, but the Warriors only led 32-28 after the first 12 minutes. Curry scored 13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting the rest of the way, and he was invisible in the fourth quarter (four points on 2-6 field goal shooting) as his Warriors lost home court advantage. Curry's game-high 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting may look impressive, but he was not the best player on the court when it mattered most, and we have seen this movie many times before with Curry. For example, in the 2021 Play-In Tournament, Curry had a big game versus the L.A. Lakers but he faded down the stretch, and I wrote the following:

Remember all of the foolish talk a couple years ago about how much better Golden State's offense supposedly was with Kevin Durant out of the lineup? Do you think that Durant would have gotten off a shot in the final minute of this game? We already know the answer, because we have seen Durant dribble the ball up the court in the NBA Finals, and hit a pressure shot over James en route to outplaying James, winning a championship, and earning the Finals MVP. 

Curry is a great player. He had a game-high 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting--but a great 6-3 player will never be more valuable than a great player who is taller, bigger, and stronger. It is baffling that anyone would think that Curry, as great as he is, is a more valuable basketball player than Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, or that in previous seasons Curry was more valuable than players like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant when those players were healthy enough to play most of the regular season games.

Curry is a great player, and he put up great numbers in game one, but he can't carry a team to a title against a physical, tough defensive team. It also must be noted that Boston's first quarter defense against him was uncharacteristically horrific, as the Celtics repeatedly conceded wide open three pointers to Curry; once the Celtics stopped blowing defensive assignments and started using their size against Curry, he had no answer. I would not be surprised if this 34 point game ends up being his top scoring performance in the 2022 NBA Finals; at the very least, if he scores 34 points again he will not do it by launching wide open shots.

Even with Curry scoring 34 points, the Celtics held the Warriors below 110 points, and that 105-110 point range is the target that I predicted Boston can achieve defensively. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (20 points on 8-15 field goal shooting), but Klay Thompson (15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting) and Jordan Poole (nine points on 2-7 field goal shooting) were non-factors. The Celtics are more than happy to give up open shots to Draymond Green (four points on 2-12 field goal shooting) and Otto Porter Jr., who scored 12 points on 4-5 field goal shooting but also had a -18 plus/minus number. Green and Porter are open by design; Curry was open in the first quarter by accident.

This was a game of runs, including 33-16 for Golden State in the third quarter to build an 87-72 lead, but the defining run was 40-13 for Boston in the fourth quarter before Golden State hit a meaningless three pointer. The Celtics made 10 straight field goals during their big run.

After the game, Green noted that Horford, Smart, and White shot 15-23 from three point range. He acknowledged that they are good shooters, but then he shrugged as if to say, "That won't happen again." Green may be right, but we can also be confident that Tatum will not shoot this poorly again the rest of the series, and we can be confident that if the Warriors close out on the three point shooters then they will get murdered in the paint; many of Boston's three point shots came after the Celtics attacked the paint, collapsed the defense, and then passed to open shooters. The Celtics can get into the paint almost at will versus the Warriors, and that is unlikely to change. If the Warriors hug the three point shooters too closely, then they will be giving up a parade of dunks and layups.

The Warriors' post-game narrative was that they outplayed the Celtics for three quarters but then just lost the fourth quarter. The reality is that the Warriors had a couple hot streaks in the first and third quarters, but they trailed 56-54 at halftime, and they were not able to put pressure on the Celtics. Tatum passed the ball well, but he was pressing every time he shot, and after he settles down he will be a major matchup problem. In other words, the things that the Celtics did well are more likely sustainable than the things that the Warriors did well.

After the game, it was fascinating watching and listening to the "experts" express puzzlement about this outcome; they have overrated Curry and the Warriors to such an extent that they are not able to objectively analyze the matchups. The series is not over after one game, but this one game is not surprising to anyone who has watched these teams play and understands how they match up.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 12:54 AM

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Boston Versus Golden State Preview

NBA Finals

Boston (51-31) vs. Golden State (53-29) 

Season series: Tied, 1-1

Golden State can win if…the "Splash Brothers" trio--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--not only maintain their long distance sharpshooting but they continue to attack closeouts with aggressive drives to the hoop. The Warriors also must move actively off of the ball, and they must defend Boston's big wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without committing so much help defense that the paint becomes open for drives, post ups and offensive rebounds.

Curry is leading Golden State in 2022 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg) and playoff assists (6.2 apg). His shooting splits (.449/.380/.822) are below his career norms across the board, but not by much (other than free throw shooting). Curry averaged 23.8 ppg, 7.4 apg, and 6.8 apg with shooting splits of .444/.439/.840 in the Warriors' Western Conference Finals win against the Dallas Mavericks en route to receiving the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.

Thompson's 2022 playoff averages (19.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, shooting splits of .457/.399/.800) almost mirror his career playoff averages of 19.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg with shooting splits of .444/.412/.838. The eye test says that he is not quite at the level he reached before suffering devastating knee and Achilles injuries, but the numbers say that he is still a very effective player. To the extent that he has lost a step, this is more evident on defense, which is why Andrew Wiggins now draws the toughest defensive assignment on the wings.

During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has been the most efficient of Golden State's three main sharpshooters, with shooting splits of .531/.393/.917. He is averaging 18.4 ppg and 4.5 apg.

In 2022, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. He is averaging 15.8 ppg in the playoffs, but his primary value (at least in the postseason) has been on defense.

Draymond Green is the quintessential example of a player who is very important for a good team but would be much less important for a weak team. As Charles Barkley jokingly notes, Green is averaging a "triple single" (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.3 apg) in the 2022 playoffs. The valuable things that Green does best are not easily measured: setting screens, making good reads (assist only partially track this), orchestrating the defense, guarding the opposing team's best big man, and being a willing and skilled help defender. If he did all of those things for a bad team, that team would still lose, but when he does all of those things for a stacked team that stacked team becomes very dangerous.

Kevon Looney's playoff numbers are not sensational (6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but he is the only player in the Warriors' rotation who is big for his position. Size bothers the Warriors, but they get by with Looney taking care of one big man and Green's active defense filling in the gaps while Wiggins and Thompson do most of the perimeter work.

Boston will win because…size bothers the Warriors, and the Celtics have effective size at each position: big men Al Horford and Robert Williams will punish the Warriors in the paint, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are big wing players, and Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart plays bigger than his height/weight might suggest. 

The Celtics have been a legit contender for several years--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020--but because they had not reached the NBA Finals since 2010 they have flown under the radar to some extent. After their slow start this season, they were not only under the radar but they were sinking beneath the sonar as well. 

Tatum is averaging 27.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, and 1.2 spg with shooting splits of .446/.375/.833 in 18 playoff games. He won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.6 apg, and 1.1 spg with shooting splits of .462./.353/.860 in a seven game series win versus the number one seeded Miami Heat. 

Brown averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg versus the Heat, and during the playoffs overall he is averaging 22.9 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He is not as spectacular as Tatum, but he is perhaps the more consistent player.

Horford led the Celtics in rebounding versus the Heat (10.0 rpg), and he just missed averaging a double double during that series, scoring 9.8 ppg. He is averaging 11.9 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg during the playoffs.

Smart struggled with his shot versus the Heat (.360 FG%), but he contributed 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Overall, his playoff averages are 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Smart can defend point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.

The Boston Celtics started slowly this season, but reemerged as an elite team after becoming the league's best defensive team while also playing more unselfishly on offense, as Tatum and Brown worked better together while Smart assumed increased playmaking duties.

Other things to consider: Media members have their narratives ready: the Golden State Warriors are a great dynasty, Stephen Curry is a top 10 all-time player, and Kevin Durant was not the best player on the Warriors' back to back 2017-18 championship teams. 

The Warriors have reached the NBA Finals six times in the past eight seasons, which by historical standards is unquestionably a dynasty: only Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Jerry West-Elgin Baylor L.A. Lakers, the Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L.A. Lakers, and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls made it to the NBA Finals at least six times in an eight year span. It should be emphasized that Russell's Celtics are in a category by themselves, winning 11 titles in 13 seasons. One difference between the Warriors and most of those other dynasties is that the other dynasties had the same top two players throughout their runs, with the exception of the West-Baylor Lakers adding Wilt Chamberlain after already losing five times in the NBA Finals. The Warriors won one title with Curry and Thompson leading the way, then they won two titles with Durant as clearly the best player, and now they have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since Durant departed.

Four Warriors are averaging double figures in scoring in the playoffs, but that number increased to six versus Dallas in the Western Conference Finals as Green and Looney joined Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins. The Warriors have a tremendous ensemble cast, superior to other teams that won the NBA Finals with ensemble casts (most notably Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004). Curry is better than Dennis Johnson and Chauncey Billups (the Finals MVPs in 1979 and 2004 respectively), but he is not at the same level as Russell, West, Baylor, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, Pippen, or Durant. Curry is the best player on a team that relies on strength in numbers, and on a very underrated defense that is--to put it mildly--not built around Curry.

However, I would be surprised if six Warriors averaged double figures against Boston's defense. The Celtics are not going to shut down the Warriors, but they are going to hold the Warriors to somewhere between 105-110 ppg instead of the 114.5 ppg that the Warriors have averaged so far in the 2022 playoffs.

Nothing that happens in the 2022 Finals changes or invalidates what Durant accomplished in the 2017 and 2018 NBA Finals. If Curry has an epic performance in the 2022 NBA Finals--30-plus ppg with efficient shooting numbers--that adds to his already impressive resume but it does not retroactively make him the Warriors' best player in 2017 and 2018, nor does it make him a better player than Durant.

The reality is that Curry's previous track record and Boston's current defense make it very unlikely that Curry will average 30 ppg in the Finals, let alone post efficient shooting numbers. If the Warriors win, they will win because their collective firepower overwhelms Boston's collective firepower.

The Warriors, by virtue of being completely healthy, are the best team that the Celtics have faced in the 2022 playoffs, but the Celtics are also by far the best team that the Warriors have faced in the 2022 playoffs. In their first three playoff series, the Warriors have yet to battle a team that can not only match up with them on the perimeter, but can also attack them in the paint.

I predict that the Celtics will win in six games.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Wiggins, Boston Celtics, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Marcus Smart, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 10:41 AM

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Celtics Chill Heat With Second Half Surge

The Boston Celtics broke open a tightly contested game five with a 24-2 second half run en route to beating the Miami Heat 93-80 to take a 3-2 Eastern Conference Finals lead. The Celtics can advance to the NBA Finals by winning game six at home on Friday night. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 25 points on 10-19 field goal shooting, and he had a game-best +20 plus/minus number. Jayson Tatum struggled with his shot for most of the game, but he finished with 22 points on 7-20 field goal shooting plus game high totals in rebounds (12) and assists (nine). Al Horford had a significant impact with 16 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Derrick White added 14 points and five assists off of the bench.

The Heat played solid defense but they could not survive their horrific shooting: 30-94 from the field (.319), including an abysmal 7-45 (.156) from beyond the arc. The Heat set a franchise single game record for missed three pointers. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 18 points on 8-15 field goal shooting, and he also had 10 rebounds, while Gabe Vincent provided 15 points off of the bench on 6-12 field goal shooting, but the other Heat players combined to shoot 16-67 from the field (.239). Jimmy Butler, the Heat's best player, scored just 13 points on 4-18 field goal shooting. Miami's starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus shot a combined 0-15 from the field after shooting a combined 1-13 from the field in game four.

Both teams have players who are persevering through a variety of injuries, but the Celtics' superior size and skill are wearing down the Heat. This game was a microcosm of the series. Early in the second quarter, Miami led 21-17. At that point, Miami had shot 1-11 from three point range, and Boston had shot 1-9 from three point range. Many NBA teams rely too much on three point shooting, and this high variance style of play is a major reason that teams build (and then often squander) big leads. Over time, size and skill prevail because the bigger, more skillful team can score in the paint and in the midrange game while smaller, less skillful teams are forced (or choose) to rely on getting hot from long distance. 

As the game progressed, the Celtics demonstrated that they could score in the paint and in the midrange game. Their ability and willingness to attack from other areas of the court eventually unlocked their long distance game as well, and they shot 9-24 from three point range after their slow start. Meanwhile, with Butler struggling and Lowry unable to make a shot at all, the Heat jacked up three pointers and hoped for the best. More than a fourth of the Heat's field goal attempts in game five were three pointers fired by Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent--and they combined to shoot 4-24 from beyond the arc. With all due respect to those players, that kind of shot distribution is not a recipe for success in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

It seems like a long time ago that some commentators insisted that the Celtics should break up the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown duo. The Celtics ignored that noise, made their fourth trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in the past six years, and are in great position to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 11:44 PM

2 comments

Celtics Freeze Heat, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2

Even a cursory examination of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals should be enough to put to rest the notion that momentum exists in an NBA playoff series. In every game in this series, at least one team has had a lead of at least 20 points. In game one, Miami overcame a 13 point deficit to lead by 20 points before winning, 118-107. In game two, Boston won, 127-102. In game three, Miami jumped out to a 46-20 lead before winning 109-103. In game four on Monday night, the Celtics started the game with an 18-1 run, and built a 32 point lead en route to a wire to wire 102-82 victory. The Heat's one point in the game's first eight minutes is the lowest point total in that time span in a playoff game in the past 25 years. 

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with a game-high 31 points. He also had eight rebounds, five assists, two blocked shots, and a game-best +37 plus/minus number. Tatum scored 24 points in the first half. Payton Pritchard was the unlikely second leading scorer for the Celtics with 14 points, followed closely by Derrick White (who scored 13 points while starting in place of the injured Marcus Smart), Jaylen Brown (12 points on 5-20 field goal shooting), and Robert Williams III (12 points plus nine rebounds and two blocked shots). Al Horford only scored five points, but he had a game-high 13 rebounds, and his plus/minus number (+33) was second only to Tatum's. Every Boston starter grabbed at least seven rebounds, while in contrast Jimmy Butler led the Heat with seven rebounds.

The Celtics dominated the Heat despite shooting just 31-78 from the field (.397), including 8-34 (.235) from three point range. The Celtics made up for their poor shooting by controlling the boards (60-39), and by shooting 32-38 from the free throw line compared to 8-14 free throw shooting by the Heat. The Heat compounded their problems by shooting even worse from the field (.333) than the Celtics did. This game was a classic example of how valuable size is, particularly when the bigger players are also more aggressive than the smaller players; undersized and lethargic is no way to win any basketball game, let alone an Eastern Conference Finals game. 

Victor Oladipo led the Heat with 23 points off of the bench. He outscored all five of the Heat's starters combined! Since the NBA started keeping separate statistics for starters more than 50 years ago, no starting lineup in a playoff game scored fewer points than the 18 scored by Miami's starters in this game. Duncan Robinson (14 points) and Caleb Martin (12 points) had solid games off of the bench. Bam Adebayo had more fouls (four) than field goals made (three). Jimmy Butler (six points on 3-14 field goal shooting) had more missed field goals than rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots combined. 

Despite such wild game to game swings, there are a few constants that can serve as guideposts for what to expect the rest of the way: defense, rebounding, and size travel well. Those are three advantages that the Celtics enjoy. On the other hand, the Celtics must win another game in Miami, but the Heat do not have to win another game in Boston. In a series in which each team has won a road game, the Heat's homecourt advantage does not appear to matter as much as the Celtics' defense, rebounding, and size; the Celtics can win in Miami, but the Heat are not likely to defend better, rebound better, or grow. It should be noted that injuries could be the X factor, as both teams are often uncertain who will be available to play until shortly before the opening tip.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Victor Oladipo

posted by David Friedman @ 1:51 AM

9 comments

Celtics Roll to Convincing Win in Miami, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 1-1

The Boston Celtics at full strength are much better than the Boston Celtics sans two starters. That should be obvious, but much of the commentary after Miami beat Boston in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals ignored or minimized that simple truth. At one point, it seemed unlikely that Al Horford and Marcus Smart would both return for game two, but they did, and the Celtics rolled to a 127-102 win. Smart scored 24 points while also leading the Celtics in assists (12) and rebounds (nine). Jayson Tatum contributed a team-high 27 points plus five rebounds and five assists. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and eight rebounds, while Grant Williams scored 19 points. Horford had an impact more significant than his 10 points and three rebounds may suggest.

Jimmy Butler had another excellent game for the Heat (29 points on 11-18 field goal shooting, six rebounds, three assists), but no other Heat player scored more than 14 points, and the Heat shot just .442 from the field, including .294 from three point range. 

The Heat jumped out to an 18-8 first quarter lead in the first 4:31, but less than five minutes later the Celtics were up 23-21 after Payton Pritchard hit a three pointer. The Celtics never looked back, outscoring the Heat 35-24 in the first quarter while shooting .632 from the field and holding the Heat to .375 field goal shooting. 

The Celtics had a double digit lead the rest of the way, and their 70-45 halftime advantage is the largest halftime lead in a road playoff game in the franchise's storied history.

Butler keyed a brief third quarter rally to cut the margin to 84-67, but the Celtics soon pushed their lead back to 30 (103-73) early in the fourth quarter.

Jeff Van Gundy made an excellent point during the broadcast: he noted that when the Celtics committed to Marcus Smart as their point guard (after previously using Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker), the Celtics then had the ability to be much more flexible defensively because Smart can effectively switch on to bigger players, something that neither Irving nor Walker can do. Size matters in the NBA, and it is difficult to win at the highest level if you rely too heavily on smaller players. While it is true that Kyrie Irving played a major role on Cleveland's 2016 championship team, it is also true that in general is it more difficult to build a championship team featuring smaller players in prominent rules than it is to build a championship team that does not rely heavily on smaller players.

On the other hand, Zach Harper's bizarre commentary earlier in the day on Sirius XM NBA Radio asserting that Smart's return might hurt the Celtics because Smart is not a great passer or shooter not only did not age well--it made little sense when Harper said it. Anyone who followed the Celtics with understanding realizes that utilizing Smart as the primary playmaker brought balance to the Celtics' offense and enabled Tatum to focus on scoring without monopolizing the ball. We hear so much about how vital it is to have "range shooting" in order to score efficiently and prolifically--but in game two the Celtics scored 127 points on .512 field goal shooting with Smart shooting 8-22 from the field.

Anyone can have an incorrect take or make a prediction that does not come to pass, but when a commentator on the NBA's official radio network consistently says things that make no sense and have no basis in fact it is fair to ask what that person's qualifications are to have such a platform, and to wonder why that person continues to be provided such a platform despite demonstrated incompetence. 

No, Payton Pritchard's "range shooting" is not more valuable than the total package of skills provided by Smart. Further, while we are focusing on things that are said that make no sense, it should be noted that Stephen Curry is not the only NBA player who has "gravity." I am not sure when "gravity" was plucked from physics to become an NBA term, but it has always been true that great NBA players attracted defensive attention that created open shots for their teammates. During the three NBA Finals contested by the Philadelphia 76ers and L.A. Lakers in the early 1980s, the Lakers played an illegal zone defense (sometimes the Lakers were called for it, sometimes they got away with it), sagging toward Julius Erving while daring his teammates to shoot. At that time, teams rarely shot three pointers, so the Lakers did not have to extend their defensive coverage the way that teams do now, but the principle was the same then as it is now: superstars attract defensive attention that creates open shot opportunities for their teammates. Even if the superstar is not a great shooter, he will still force the defense to tilt toward him to minimize his driving opportunities--that was true from Elgin Baylor to Julius Erving to Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to LeBron James to Giannis Antetokounmpo. The three point shot rule and various defensive rules changes forced tweaks in the specific defensive strategies employed over the years, but the players listed above had just as much "gravity" as anyone in pro basketball history. In this series, Tatum and Butler have the most "gravity," and anyone who is paying attention can see how their "gravity" pulls defenders toward them/away from their teammates.

Miami's game one win is a distant memory now. The Celtics enjoy homecourt advantage, and the Heat will have to take at least one game in Boston to win this series.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 1:27 AM

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Instant Classic: Bucks Come Back From 14 Point Deficit to Edge Celtics, 110-107

Milwaukee's 110-107 game five win at Boston had it all: big performances by each team's superstar, clutch plays by both teams, and a suspenseful, dramatic conclusion. The Celtics led for most of the game, were up 93-79 with 10:16 remaining in the fourth quarter, and were ahead 105-99 at the 2:12 mark after Al Horford's follow slam. The Bucks showed their championship poise by closing the game with an 11-2 run that included crucial free throws, big shots, and some sensational defensive plays. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 11 rebounds, but he did not play a perfect game; he committed seven turnovers and he only shot 6-10 from the free throw line--but being a superstar is about impacting the outcome of the game, not about being perfect. Antetokounmpo made his presence felt at both ends of the court, and by the end of the game he was bloodied--play had to be halted twice late in the game so that the Bucks' medical staff could stop blood from pouring out of Antetokounmpo's face--but not bowed. Jrue Holiday continued to struggle with his shot (9-24 field goal shooting) but he made some of the game's biggest plays, and he finished with 24 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high eight assists. Bobby Portis shot just 4-14 from the field, but he chased down a game-high 15 rebounds, and his putback with 11.4 seconds remaining proved to be the game-winning basket. 

Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 34 points and he committed just one turnover in 42 minutes. He also had six rebounds and four assists. The only blemish was his poor three point shooting (2-11), which dragged down his overall field goal shooting (12-29). Jaylen Brown had an excellent all-around game (26 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, six assists). Game four hero Al Horford made some key plays but he did not come close to replicating his 30 point performance, finishing with eight points, eight rebounds, and six assists. 

The tightly contested first quarter featured four lead changes, and ended with Milwaukee up, 28-26. The Celtics jumped out to a 51-38 lead late in the second quarter, but the Bucks rallied to cut the margin to 54-47 by halftime. Even though the Bucks trailed, they stayed true to their game plan of dominating the paint and forcing the Celtics to score from the three point arc; the Bucks won the first half rebounding battle 28-19, and they held the Celtics to 6-21 three point shooting (.286). The Bucks' main first half problems were too many turnovers (nine, compared to Boston's two), and poor field goal shooting (.396). In the second half, the Bucks shot much better (.477), committed just four turnovers (compared to Boston's eight), and outrebounded the Celtics 21-17. The Bucks' advantages in those categories enabled them to survive Boston's .538 second half field goal shooting.

The third quarter featured runs by both teams, but ended with the Celtics adding just two points to their halftime advantage to enter the fourth quarter up, 86-77. A quick 7-2 Boston burst early in the fourth quarter made it seem like this might be the Celtics' night, but the Bucks spent the rest of the final stanza chipping away until they pulled within two points, 101-99, on a Holiday jump shot with 4:09 remaining. However, Horford's spectacular tip dunk at the 2:12 mark put Boston up 105-99. Portis missed a long two point jumper, but Wes Matthews grabbed the rebound and passed to Antetokoumpo, who calmly drained a three pointer. The teams traded misses, and then Antetokounmpo got a steal that the Bucks converted into a Holiday three pointer that tied the game at 105-105. Portis fouled Tatum on a drive, and Tatum's two free throws with 31.4 seconds left gave Boston a 107-105 lead. Antetokounmpo countered with a drive, and he was fouled by Grant Williams. Antetokounmpo made the first free throw but he missed the second free throw. Portis corralled the miss and scored what turned out to be the game-winning layup--but the game was still far from over. Marcus Smart drove the baseline but was denied at the hoop on a spectacular block by Holiday, who then saved the possession by throwing the ball off of Smart. Pat Connaughton nailed two free throws after the Celtics committed a take foul, and then Holiday sealed the win by stealing the ball from Smart in the open court. 

The effort level and intensity displayed by both teams were outstanding, and epitomized what game five in a 2-2 series is supposed to look like and be about; game five is not supposed to be about the road team's stars disappearing and meekly submitting to a blowout loss. Remember when James Harden said that he wishes he could be seven feet tall and just dunk? That was a not so veiled reference to Giannis Antetokounmpo, with the point being that Harden believes that he has great basketball skills, in contrast to Antetokounmpo just being a big athlete who lacks great basketball skills. Since Harden made that remark, Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a championship and won a Finals MVP, while Harden continued his career-long pattern of disappearing in elimination games. To say that Harden's insult of Antetokounmpo did not age well would be the understatement of the century; Harden's delusional assessment of his basketball skills compared to Antetokounmpo's basketball skills is as off target as Harden's playoff shooting.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM

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Celtics Win Game Four in Milwaukee, Retake Home Court Advantage

Al Horford scored a playoff career-high 30 points and Jayson Tatum also scored 30 points as the Boston Celtics rallied from an 11 point deficit to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks 116-108 to tie their playoff series at 2-2. The Celtics reclaimed home court advantage as the series shifts back to Boston for the pivotal game five. Horford shot 11-14 from the field, grabbed eight rebounds, and led both teams with a +20 plus/minus number. Tatum had a team-high 13 rebounds, and he also had five assists. Tatum shot 11-24 from the field. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart scored 18 points each. Smart had a team-high eight assists.

Giannis Antetokounmpo notched game-high totals in points (34) and rebounds (18), and he also had five assists, but he shot 14-32 from the field and he looked uncharacteristically tired late in the fourth quarter when he was subbed out for a quick rest (less than one minute of game time). He had a +1 plus/minus number in 41 minutes, which means that the Bucks trailed by nine points in the seven minutes that he did not play. Brook Lopez had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Jrue Holiday shot just 5-22 from the field en route to posting a -23 plus/minus number. Holiday had 16 points, a game-high nine assists, and seven rebounds, but his poor shooting is becoming a significant subplot in this series. He is best suited to being the third offensive option and lead perimeter defender, but as this series progresses the absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton is increasingly being felt at both ends of the court as Holiday is being forced to shoulder a heavier load than he can carry without a corresponding drop in his efficiency.

The Bucks started the game strongly, leading 25-18 by the end of the first quarter after forcing five turnovers, winning the rebounding battle 17-9, and holding the Celtics to .364 field goal shooting. The Bucks should have been ahead by even more, but they only shot .357 from the field.

In the second quarter, the Bucks continued to shoot poorly (.333 field goal percentage) but the Celtics cut their turnovers to two, fought to a 12-12 draw on the boards, and outscored the Bucks 29-23 to shave Milwaukee's lead to 48-47 by halftime.

Antetokounmpo dominated the third quarter with 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting as the Bucks shot .526 from the field, outscored the Celtics 32-26, and extended their advantage to 76-65 before settling for an 80-73 lead heading into the final 12 minutes. 

Depending on how you view it, in the fourth quarter either the Bucks' defense fell apart or the Celtics' offense operated at absolute peak efficiency: the Celtics shot 16-19 from the field (.842) en route to outscoring the Bucks 43-28. Milwaukee is a championship team that prides itself on using its height and strength to defend with great tenacity, so that performance--with a great opportunity to take a 3-1 series lead--is very surprising. Horford outscored the Bucks 16-14 at the start of the fourth quarter, and he tied the score at 80-80 with an emphatic dunk over Antetokounmpo at the 9:51 mark. Antetokounmpo fouled Horford on the play, and Horford was assessed a technical foul because his elbow made contact with Antetokounmpo's face as both players tumbled to the ground. Horford shot 6-6 from the field in the fourth quarter, and Tatum was almost as deadly, scoring 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo scored six fourth quarter points on 3-7 field goal shooting, and Holiday was 0-5 from the field in the final stanza. Lopez had 10 points on 4-5 field goal shooting, but that was not nearly enough to hold off the rampaging Celtics.

During the playoffs, there is an amusing tendency for commentators to jump off and on various bandwagons from game to game; the team that just won is portrayed as invincible, while the team that just lost has several insurmountable matchup problems. The reality is nuanced, and is based on how the matchups play out over the course of several games. Does Boston's road win after dominating the fourth quarter change my prediction? No--in fact, the series is "on schedule" from my perspective, because in my series preview I noted that both teams can win on the road, and I predicted that Milwaukee would win game five in Boston before taking game six back in Milwaukee. I did not know how the series would progress from game to game but I expected a 2-2 tie with each team winning once on the road. If I am right--and if there are no further injuries--Antetokoumpo's greatness will be the distinguishing factor, just as it was during Milwaukee's championship run last season.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 1:45 AM

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Antetokounmpo Scores 42 Points, Bucks Survive Fourth Quarter Comeback to Beat Celtics, 103-101

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 42 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished for a game-high eight assists as his Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Boston Celtics 103-101 to take a 2-1 series lead. The teams will play one more game in Milwaukee before the series shifts back to Boston for game five. Antetokounmpo shot just .385 from the field in the first two games of this series, but he shot 16-30 (.533) from the field in game three. This is his 13th playoff game with at least 30 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least five assists. Since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, only LeBron James and Larry Bird have more such playoff games. Jrue Holiday scored 25 points, but he shot just 11-30 from the field, slightly worse than his .375 field goal percentage in the first two games of the series. Brook Lopez had 13 points and 10 rebounds. He scored 11 of his points in the first half, and his minutes were limited by foul trouble, but his contributions defensively and on the boards were indispensable. Pat Connaughton added 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting. 

Jaylen Brown scored 27 points on 8-16 field goal shooting for the Celtics. He also had 12 rebounds and four assists. Brown scored 15 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Al Horford added 22 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 16 rebounds, and a team-high five assists. Horford scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Jayson Tatum outplayed Kevin Durant in Boston's first round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, but he has not fared as well so far versus Milwaukee, and he had a miserable game three, finishing with just 10 points on 4-19 field goal shooting. Although he had a game-high four blocked shots, Tatum's overall floor game was subpar: three assists, one rebound, one steal, and three turnovers in 41 minutes. Anyone can have a bad shooting game, but when the all-time greats have a bad shooting game they find other ways to control the game, and that is something that Tatum will have to continue to work on to cement his status as a legitimate MVP candidate in the future.

The Bucks shot just .404 from the field, but they held the Celtics to .368 field goal shooting. Other than a few swooping drives by Antetokoumpo and some slick moves by Brown, this game was not a showcase of beautiful offensive basketball, but it was a grimy, hard fought, and intense playoff game.

It is always a special treat when Hubie Brown is the color commentator. I miss the days when he was a member of his network's number one crew and he was always calling the biggest games, but I am grateful that the 88 year old Hall of Famer, 1975 ABA champion, and two-time NBA Coach of the Year (1978, 2004) is still sharp as ever and still sharing his basketball wisdom. Brown has lived through six decades of pro basketball history (1970s-2020s) as an assistant coach, head coach, and color commentator, but you can tell that he still loves the game and he is enthusiastic about the great players of today--such as Antetokounmpo--while also respecting the accomplishments of the great players from the past, a combination that far too many current commentators are unable or unwilling to pull off.

As is often the case, the first quarter provided a preview of how the game would proceed; contrary to popular belief/misconception, the NBA is just as much a first quarter league as it is a fourth quarter league. The Bucks led 22-19 after the first 12 minutes, nearly matching the final margin, and Antetokounmpo already had eight points and four rebounds while Tatum managed just two points on 1-5 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo dominating while Tatum struggled to make a shot turned out to be two of this game's major themes.

The second quarter was a bit of an aberration, as the Celtics closed the stanza on a 7-0 run to lead 50-46 at the break. The Celtics are well-coached and they are usually poised, so regardless of how well or how poorly they are shooting they will find ways to stay competitive. However, some of that poise temporarily evaporated in the third quarter, as the Celtics committed five turnovers in the first six minutes to fuel Milwaukee's surge to an 80-66 lead. The score was 80-67 heading into the fourth quarter, and the Bucks led 88-76 with 9:10 remaining after Bobby Portis scored on a putback, but then the Celtics went on a 24-11 run to go ahead 100-99 on two Brown free throws with 1:49 left. On a couple possessions, the Celtics trapped Antetokounmpo and stayed at home on everyone but Connaughton, who missed two wide open three pointers. In those moments, the absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton was particularly noticeable, because the ball would have been in his hands either to start or finish those plays. Holiday's subpar field goal percentage is probably also at least partially caused by him shouldering a larger offensive load than usual (it is doubtful that he would have attempted 30 shots had Middleton played). That takes nothing away from the Celtics' defensive game plan or their execution of that game plan, but just states the reality that even though the Bucks are in a good position without Middleton the series would look different if he were playing.

Antetokounmpo's driving layup and Holiday's short jumper put the Bucks up, 103-100. The Bucks fouled Marcus Smart with 4.6 seconds remaining. Smart made the first free throw, and he intentionally missed the second free throw. The Celtics failed to convert multiple putback chances before Horford tipped the ball in the hoop, but replay review confirmed that the ball was still in his hands when time expired.

There is no publicly announced timetable for Middleton's return, and without the matchup advantages he provides at both ends of the court game four will probably be another slugfest. The individual numbers will vary from game to game--Tatum will probably not shoot this poorly again, but Holiday will also probably not shoot 2-9 from the field in the fourth quarter--but Antetokounmpo's greatness and Milwaukee's size present formidable challenges even for this very good Boston team.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 7:30 PM

2 comments

Boston Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

# 2 Boston (55-27) vs. #4 Cleveland (50-32)

Season series: Cleveland, 2-1

Cleveland can win if…LeBron James continues his historic playoff run and if his supporting cast fills in the gaps at both ends of the court. James averaged 34.0 ppg, 11.3 apg and 8.3 rpg while shooting .553 from the field as the Cavaliers swept the Toronto Raptors in the second round; through two rounds, James is averaging 34.3 ppg, 9.0 apg and 9.4 rpg while shooting .553 from the field.

The Raptors posted the best record in the Eastern Conference (59-23) this season and featured both a top seven offense and a top seven defense but the Cavaliers just dismantled them. Game one was a heartbreaking overtime loss for the Raptors after leading throughout regulation but the Cavaliers dominated the Raptors in game two, held on to win a close game three and then stomped Toronto 128-93 in game four.

This outcome is not only a tribute to James' greatness--and to the ability of Coach Tyronn Lue to change his rotation on the fly in the playoffs (more about that below)--but it is also a devastating end to what had been the best season in Raptors' franchise history. The terms "MVP-caliber" and "elite" have always been thrown around way too liberally--and the body of work for Toronto All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, culminating in that second round debacle versus Cleveland, should remove both of their names from either of those conversations for the foreseeable future. James' greatness does not justify or excuse Toronto's total collapse, a collapse that is either a failure of coaching (not in this case, in my opinion) or a failure of effort/heart/focus among the players--and that kind of failure is largely the responsibility of the team's best players.

As for the Cavaliers, it is not that long ago that they were outscored over the course of a seven game first round series by an Indiana team that is hardly elite by any stretch of the imagination. Did Cleveland instantly become a contender, did James singlehandedly dismantle Toronto or did the Raptors--for lack of a better word--choke? There is probably a little bit of truth in each of those suppositions.

It does seem that Coach Lue has figured out the right rotation for the Cavs; putting George Hill in the starting lineup and shifting Kevin Love to center created a lot of matchup problems for the Raptors but it remains to be seen if those adjustments will be as effective versus the Celtics (or if Lue has further moves up his sleeve).

The Eastern Conference Finals will provide a much clearer answer regarding who the Cavaliers really are. I suspect that they may not be as vulnerable as they looked against the Pacers but I also doubt that they are as good as the Raptors made them look.

Kevin Love (20.5 ppg, .353 3FG%), Kyle Korver (14.5 ppg, .560 3FG%) and  J.R. Smith (12.5 ppg, .769 3FG%) provided a lot of help for James versus Toronto after each of those players looked terrible in the first round. The Cavaliers will need strong production from those players to get past the Celtics.

Boston will win because…the Celtics' collective effort and performance will outweigh the individual greatness of LeBron James. Some "experts" thought the injury-depleted Celtics would struggle to beat Milwaukee in the first round but the Celtics won in five games. Even more "experts" were convinced that the Celtics would lose to the Philadelphia 76ers, perhaps overly impressed by the 76ers' season-ending 16 game winning streak (at least six of those wins came against teams that were actively tanking, which is ironic considering Philadelphia's recent years-long tanking "Process"). Boston jumped out to a 3-0 lead and closed out the 76ers in five games.

How is Boston succeeding without injured All-Stars Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward? No NBA team goes far without talented players. The Celtics have Al Horford, a strong two-way player whose individual statistics often do not fully capture his impact on winning. The Celtics also have a rising corps of young, scrappy players such as Terry Rozier (24 years old), Jayson Tatum (20), Jaylen Brown (21) and Marcus Smart (24). Those five players--plus 28 year old Marcus Morris--lead a balanced scoring attack, with each player averaging at least 10.6 ppg during the playoffs but no player averaging more than Tatum's 18.8 ppg. That depth and versatility makes it difficult to stop the Celtics. The Celtics are also strong defensively, with several individual plus defenders and a very strong defensive game plan.

That game plan comes from the mind of Coach Brad Stevens, who Horford called a "genius" during the Philadelphia series. Stephens has emerged as one of the NBA's top coaches. Unlike even some of the other top coaches, Stephens is an adept strategist at both ends of the court. He is consistently able to accentuate his players' individual strengths while hiding their weaknesses.

Boston's success is not a fluke and the Celtics will not be an easy out for anyone.

Other things to consider: Conventional wisdom would favor the team with home court advantage--not only because having an extra game at home provides a significant edge but also because that team proved to be better and more consistent over the 82 game regular season schedule. While it may seem that the most important aspect of home court advantage is having a potential game seven at home, it should be noted that game one winners win an NBA playoff series about 80% of the time. The adage about a series not beginning until the road team wins is not statistically or historically correct. Boston earned home court advantage by being more consistent than Cleveland and if the Celtics capture the first two games at home then the Cavaliers will face a lot of pressure to not only "defend" home court but to also win a pivotal game five in Boston.

On the other hand, conventional wisdom would also favor the team that has the best player. James is obviously the best player in this series; some voices are now contending that James is the best player of all-time, a statement that is impossible to prove--but James is without question a member of pro basketball's Pantheon and he has been for quite some time.

A great basketball player can impact team success to a much larger extent than a great baseball player or a great football player but even the greatest players need at least some help to win a championship. This season the Cavaliers remade their roster more than once in an attempt to surround James with the right supporting cast. No matter which combinations they tried, the defense was subpar but that seems to have changed during the playoffs.

It is possible that the Cavaliers have figured everything out after a season marred by injuries, dissension and several roster moves. Coach Lue's current starting rotation of LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith and George Hill did not play together during the regular season but was extremely effective versus the East-leading Raptors.

James may also be the modern-day Shaquille O'Neal; O'Neal was blessed with so much size and physical talent that he could, at times, coast during the regular season only to turn up his level during the postseason. While James had a very good regular season on paper, it was obvious that his effort and intensity were below par--especially on defense. The Cavaliers had a solid month when they actually performed better when he was not on the court, which is unheard of during James' career (and very unusual for an MVP level player).

If James is the modern-day O'Neal and if the Cavaliers have figured things out, then the Celtics could be in trouble. Picking a depleted Celtics team against a surging LeBron James may be foolish and may look ridiculous a week or two from now--but I just believe that the regular season means something, that building habits over an extended period of time matters and that the Celtics have been underrated all season.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, Terry Rozier

posted by David Friedman @ 4:38 PM

107 comments

Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Boston (55-27) vs. #3 Philadelphia (52-30)

Season series: Boston, 3-1

Philadelphia can win if…the 76ers stick to the foundations that have taken them this far: outstanding team defense and rebounding, tremendous passing as a unit and then the individual brilliance of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, who returned to the lineup for the final three games of the first round after being out due to an orbital fracture.

During the regular season, the 76ers ranked first in defensive field goal percentage (.434), first in rebounding (47.4 rpg) and second in assists (27.1 apg). They displayed toughness, physicality and unselfishness. The team improved throughout the season and survived the 18 regular season games missed by Embiid, who led the 76ers in scoring (22.9 ppg), rebounding (11.0 rpg) and blocked shots (1.8 bpg) despite playing just 30.3 mpg.

Ben Simmons, who likely will win the Rookie of the Year award, averaged 15.8 ppg, 8.2 apg and 8.1 rpg during the regular season. He is a throwback player who shoots a high percentage from the field (.545) while only attempting just 11 three pointers (none made) during the entire season. His rookie numbers are eerily similar to Magic Johnson's (18.0 ppg, 7.3 apg, 7.7 rpg, .530 FG%, 7-31 three point shooting)--but what made Magic special is that he led the Lakers to the championship that season and then led the Lakers to four more titles in the 1980s. Simmons averaged 18.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg and 9.0 apg while shooting .500 from the field as Philadelphia took care of Miami in five games in the first round.

J.J. Redick averaged a career-high 17.1 ppg during the regular season and he led the 76ers with 20.0 ppg in the first round of the playoffs. The defensive attention commanded by Simmons and Embiid obviously helps Redick a lot.

Marco Belineli, Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova and Robert Covington are all making excellent contributions.

Boston will win because…the Celtics are an outstanding defensive team that is better than the sum of its parts.

Al Horford led the Celtics in scoring (18.7 ppg) and rebounding (8.7 rpg) as Boston defeated Milwaukee in seven games. Jaylen Brown (17.9 ppg) and Terry Rozier (17.6 ppg) were Boston's next two leading scorers.

This may not be a "name-brand" roster but the Celtics can play. During the regular season they ranked second in defensive field goal percentage (.440), first in defensive three point field goal percentage (.339) and third in points allowed (100.4 ppg).

The Celtics are smart, tough and unselfish. They have consistently found ways to win even with their star players sidelined. During the first round, they held serve on their home court and almost won game four in Milwaukee before routing the Bucks 112-96 in Boston in game seven. It will not be easy for the 76ers to take a game in Boston during this series--and if the 76ers do, the Celtics could very well take one in Philadelphia to reclaim home court advantage.

Other things to consider: Both of these teams have had surprisingly good seasons. Few would have expected Boston to do so well after losing Gordon Hayward for the season due to an injury suffered in the opening moments of the first regular season game and even fewer would have expected Boston to make much noise after losing Kyrie Irving to injury prior to the playoffs. After firing Sam Hinkie in 2016, the 76ers finally stopped their seemingly endless tanking and emerged in the second half of this season as a legitimate playoff team. It is important to understand that the so-called "Process" did not make the 76ers good; firing Hinkie and replacing him with a real basketball executive (two-time NBA Executive of the Year award winner Bryan Colangelo) is what turned the 76ers around.

The 76ers closed the regular season with a franchise-record 16 game winning streak and they blitzed an overmatched Miami squad in the first round but dealing with Boston will be a different matter. Philadelphia may actually be more talented on paper but Boston's collective productivity--and having game seven at home, if necessary--will make the difference in what should be a competitive and exciting series that will probably go the full seven games.

I would be remiss if I did not mention the historical note that this is one of the NBA's greatest rivalries. The Celtics and 76ers battled against each other in the 1960s--led by Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain respectively (they also squared off earlier in the decade when Chamberlain played for the Philadelphia Warriors before the franchise moved to California)--and they faced off in a seven game series in 1977 (led by John Havlicek and Julius Erving respectively) before Julius Erving and Larry Bird competed against each other in four Eastern Conference Finals during the 1980s.

Labels: Al Horford, Ben Simmons, Boston Celtics, J.J. Redick, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Terry Rozier

posted by David Friedman @ 11:03 AM

22 comments

Cleveland Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

# 1 Boston (53-29) vs. #2 Cleveland (51-31)

Season series: Cleveland, 3-1

Boston can win if…Isaiah Thomas is the best player on the court for extended periods of time and if Boston's rugged crew of perimeter defenders can "limit" LeBron James to something along the lines of "merely" 25 ppg, 8 rpg, 6 apg while not letting Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love exceed their regular season averages and not letting Kyle Korver shoot open three pointers like fish in a barrel.

Thomas has been a fourth quarter killer all season long and the Celtics will need his finishing touch (assuming that they can keep the games close enough for this to matter). It has become fashionable to pick against Boston as a "weak" number one seed but the Celtics overcame a 2-0 deficit to beat Chicago in the first round--albeit with Rajon Rondo's injury obviously affecting that result--and then survived a seven game battle royale against Washington, one of the hottest teams in the NBA after starting off the season sluggishly.

Thomas has been Boston's best playoff performer (25.4 ppg, 6.5 apg) but he has received a lot of help, including double figure scoring from Al Horford (16.1 ppg), Avery Bradley (15.8 ppg) and Jae Crowder (13.2 ppg). Also, Kelly Olynyk (9.7 ppg) came up huge in game seven versus Washington. Horford was brought in to be a difference maker and help this team rise to contending status. While Horford's numbers do not jump off the page, his impact on both ends of the court is significant.

Cleveland will win because…LeBron James is playing at a historically great level in the 2017 playoffs, averaging 34.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 7.1 apg while shooting .557 from the field.

Kyrie Irving is a big-time shot maker; he reminds me a lot of Andrew Toney--a fearless player in clutch moments who is primarily a scorer but who has underrated passing skills. Like Toney, Irving is perhaps not quite good enough to be the best player on a championship team but he is perfectly cast as a secondary star on a championship team. Irving is averaging 23.8 ppg and 5.8 apg in the playoffs after averaging 25.2/5.8 in the regular season, though Irving's field goal percentage has dropped precipitously in the postseason (from .473 to .399).

Kevin Love is playing the Chris Bosh third option role to perfection, averaging 13.8 ppg and 9.1 rpg in the playoffs while spreading the court with his shooting touch (.401 3FG% in the playoffs).

Kyle Korver is shooting .485 from three point range in the playoffs, making it difficult to send double teams at James, Irving or Love.

Cleveland is a solid rebounding team, while the Celtics ranked 27th in the NBA in that category during the regular season. The Cavaliers will likely make more three pointers than the Celtics and thus the Celtics are doomed unless they can compensate by generating extra possessions via rebounds and/or turnovers.

James complained about his supporting cast not being good enough and now he has former All-Stars Korver and Deron Williams coming off of the bench to supplement the efforts of the James-Irving-Love Big Three. This is one of the deepest and most complete teams in recent memory, although the Cavaliers are obviously not quite as top heavy with talent as the Golden State Warriors, who sacrificed depth for starting lineup star power, while the Cavaliers actually have both starting lineup star power and depth.

Other things to consider: I do not like the way that LeBron James and the Cavaliers treated the regular season like it was a secondary consideration but they must feel vindicated by that approach after sweeping through the first two playoff rounds with an 8-0 record. The Cavaliers have the better team on paper and they have the best player in the league performing at a very high level. Boston's only trump is home court advantage. Cleveland is clearly the favorite.

Yet, Boston has a chance. The Celtics have proven to be tough-minded and resilient. There is also the undeniable fact that on several occasions in the playoffs--2010, 2011, 2014--LeBron James has allowed lesser players to outperform him for significant stretches of key games. Whether one terms this quitting or entering "chill mode," it is very unusual for an all-time great to do this, particularly on multiple occasions on the biggest stage.

One could argue or assume that James has outgrown this flaw/tendency but because it happened several times--and as recently as three years ago--it is hard to ever completely trust James' effort in the clutch the way one would trust Russell, Jordan, Duncan or Bryant.

I expect the Cavaliers to win in six games. By mentioning James' history I am not "hating" and I am not hedging on my prediction--but I am saying that if Boston wins in seven after Thomas scores 15 in the final stanza while James is passive this would be surprising but not shocking, because we have seen a similar script before.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James

posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 PM

3 comments

Cleveland Versus Atlanta Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Cleveland (57-25) vs. #4 Atlanta (48-34)

Season series: Cleveland, 3-0

Atlanta can win if…Jeff Teague neutralizes Kyrie Irving, the Hawks prevent the Cavaliers from dominating the boards and LeBron James is slowed down by defense by committee (and/or the mysterious malaise that can inexplicably afflict him at any time after the first round of the playoffs). The Hawks are a somewhat puzzling team. They were not as dominant in the 2015-16 regular season as they were in they were in the 2014-15 regular season and they do not have a superstar player but they have a lot of really good players, including current or former All-Stars Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver. Horford struggled in the first round versus Boston, Korver is a great shooter but is not good at creating his own shot, Teague seems to be the team's most important player yet Atlanta advanced despite his .395 field goal shooting versus Boston and Millsap had a bizarre series with four points in one game and then 45 points two games later. All of those players are going to have to be better and more consistent for the Hawks to have a chance against Cleveland.

Cleveland will win because…LeBron James rarely loses playoff series against outmatched teams. The Cavaliers have matchup advantages across the board in this series except for coaching and the center position. Mike "Gregg Popovich, Jr." Budenholzer will coach rings around Tyronn Lue, but the Cavaliers are still better off in that regard now than they were in this round last year when then-assistant coach Lue stopped then-Cleveland Coach David Blatt from calling a timeout that the Cavaliers did not have, which could have resulted in a disastrous technical foul.

Horford should have an advantage against whoever Cleveland plays at center. If any of the games are close enough for strategy and matchup decisions to matter, Budenholzer is going to have the advantage over Lue.

The big questions, as always with the Cavaliers, revolve around James. How will Atlanta guard him and how aggressive will James be? If the Hawks can get away with single coverage on James because James settles for long jumpers, then the Hawks have a chance provided that the quartet of players mentioned above are efficient offensively. If James plays up to his capabilities, the Hawks are obviously in trouble.

Irving was sensational in the first round as Cleveland swept Detroit. He led Cleveland in scoring (27.5 ppg), he shot .471 from the field and he only committed six turnovers.

Kevin Love ranked third on the Cavaliers in scoring versus Detroit (18.8 ppg) and he led the team in rebounding (12.0 rpg) but he shot just .410 from the field and his defense is always questionable.

Other things to consider: Many--if not all--of the teams that had any realistic chance to be competitive against the Cavaliers in a seven game series may be out of the picture soon. Injuries took out the L.A. Clippers and could potentially take out the Golden State Warriors, while the Spurs-Thunder series will eliminate a legit championship contender that is better than any team Cleveland will prior to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are snacking on light Eastern Conference fare. TNT's Charles Barkley mentioned the possibility that Cleveland will not lose a game before the start of the NBA Finals. While that seems unlikely (Cleveland will lose at least one road game in this round and/or the Eastern Conference Finals), Cleveland obviously has a very favorable return path to the NBA Finals.

Timofey Mozgov, a key contributor to Cleveland's playoff run last year, has completely disappeared from Lue's rotation, playing just 14 minutes versus Detroit and not appearing at all in two of the four games. Tristan Thompson, who took over Mozgov's starting center role, averaged 3.8 ppg and 5.5 rpg against Detroit, hurting James' chances of winning Executive of the Year; all sarcasm aside, this is the coaching staff and roster that James handpicked, so the self-proclaimed "Best Player on the Planet" has no valid excuses or complaints if the Cavaliers do not win the championship.

Labels: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Jeff Teague, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Paul Millsap

posted by David Friedman @ 2:39 PM

2 comments