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Friday, November 14, 2014

LeBron James' Rescinded Phony Triple Double is a Symptom of a Larger Problem

Intelligent NBA observers know that there are serious problems with the accuracy/meaningfulness of box score numbers, which by definition means that the so-called "advanced basketball statistics" that are cherished by "stat gurus" are also deeply flawed. Box score numbers are not only devoid of context--points scored by a bench player during garbage time of a blowout game count the same as points scored in the fourth quarter of a close game that will decide which team wins a division title--but they often are just flat out wrong. Faulty scorekeeping is a serious NBA problem; when I have charted Chris Paul's assists I have consistently found that he is credited with more assists than he deserves--and it is perhaps most telling that I have never found an instance when a player was not credited with an assist that should have been recorded. The scorekeeping errors only happen in one direction (i.e., padding totals as opposed to depriving players of assists that they rightfully earned) and I am not convinced that this is primarily "home cooking," though that may play a part. NBA scorekeeping is either inherently sloppy or else there is a bias toward artificially inflating the numbers of certain players, perhaps with the intention of comparing today's stars favorably with stars from previous eras by making it seem as if today's stars are setting records that they are not really setting.

The latest publicly acknowledged example of NBA scorekeeping gone bad took place on Monday, when LeBron James supposedly posted 32 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists while leading his Cleveland Cavaliers to a 118-111 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Upon further review, the NBA removed one rebound and one assist from James' totals. Both scorekeeping errors occurred during one continuous sequence: the incorrectly tallied rebound happened when a missed shot bounced off of James' hands into the hands of his teammate Tristan Thompson, who controlled the ball and should have been credited with the rebound. Thompson then made an outlet pass that resulted--after many dribbles--in a Kyrie Irving fastbreak layup. No assist should have been awarded on that play but instead the scorekeeper gave James an assist, which makes about as much sense as giving Mark Price an assist on the play.

One can dismiss this as "home cooking" or say that Cleveland's official scorekeeper just had a bad night but the reality is that egregious errors regarding LeBron James' box score numbers do not only happen in Cleveland. This is the third phony LeBron James triple double that the NBA has corrected, with the first one happening on April 1, 2006 and the second one happening in Madison Square Garden on February 4, 2009. Scorekeepers would not be making such obvious mistakes unless this kind of box score padding is an accepted practice. The NBA claims that it regularly checks game film to make sure that the box score statistics are accurate but--in light of the numerous uncorrected box score mistakes that I have found in just a handful of Chris Paul's games--it seems more likely that the only reason LeBron James' phony triple doubles were rescinded is that observers outside of the NBA publicly called attention to these outlandish mistakes. Meanwhile, routine errors that are not publicized become part of the sport's historical and statistical record.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:13 PM

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Friday, September 14, 2012

Wilt Chamberlain's "Big" Triple Doubles

Julius Erving posted a 26 point, 20 rebound, 15 assist triple double as a rookie in just the fifth game of his playoff career. I called Erving's stat line "a triple double of Wilt Chamberlain/Oscar Robertson proportions" because Chamberlain and Robertson are perhaps the only other players in pro basketball history capable of putting up a triple double as "big" as Erving's; I would define a "big" triple double as one that consists of at least 25 points plus more than 10 rebounds and more than 10 assists and/or one that consists of at least a total of 20 in two different categories--in other words, the player did not just barely attain triple double status (perhaps grabbing an otherwise meaningless rebound late in a blowout) but instead he dominated across the board and had a major scoring impact in addition to playing an excellent floor game. Robertson averaged a cumulative 30-10-10 in the first five seasons of his career (including the 1961-62 campaign when he became the only player to average a triple double for an entire season: 30.8 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 11.4 apg) and Chamberlain averaged 30.1 ppg and 22.9 rpg for his entire career, so both players clearly accumulated many "big" triple doubles.

There is no indication that any other player, let alone a rookie, had a playoff triple double matching or exceeding Erving's 26-20-15 line in all three departments but Matthew Shuh--a contributor to the statistical website www.nbastats.prv.pl--pointed out to me that Chamberlain had two such triple doubles in the regular season. Chamberlain had 31 points, 21 rebounds and 15 assists in Philadelphia's March 3, 1968 134-103 win versus San Diego and Chamberlain had 35 points, 24 rebounds and 15 assists in Philadelphia's February 14, 1968 149-125 win versus Seattle. Chamberlain shot 15-18 from the field in the Seattle game but just 5-12 from the free throw line, so that game represented a microcosm of both his overall dominance and his one skill set weakness.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:09 PM

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