20 Second Timeout

Thunder Outlast Pacers to Win Game Seven, 103-91

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Indiana Pacers 56-43 in the second half, transforming a one point halftime deficit into a 103-91 game seven win to capture the NBA championship. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 45-40 and shot slightly more efficiently from the field, but the Thunder attacked Pacers' ballhandlers on the perimeter and took advantage of extra possessions by scoring in the paint; the Thunder forced 23 turnovers that they converted into 32 points while committing just eight turnovers that the Pacers converted into 10 points, and the Thunder outscored the Pacers in the paint, 40-26.

As is often the case in game seven showdowns, two high octane offenses struggled to score efficiently. The Thunder averaged 120.5 ppg in the regular season while posting a 68-14 record with the best point differential in NBA history (12.9 ppg), but in game seven they barely cracked the 100 point barrier while shooting 35-87 (.402) from the field, including 11-40 (.275) from three point range; the Pacers averaged 117.4 ppg in the regular season while ranking third in field goal percentage (.488), but in game seven they fell well short of 100 points while shooting 29-70 (.414) from the field, including 11-28 (.393) from beyond the arc. 

Three point shooting is supposed to be of paramount importance in today's NBA, but the Thunder took the title despite shooting 71-206 (.345) from three point range in the NBA Finals. Defense, rebounding, and paint presence are often the most important factors in game seven, which is why the 1998 Chicago Bulls beat the Indiana Pacers in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals despite Michael Jordan shooting 9-25 from the field and why the 2010 L.A. Lakers beat the Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals despite Kobe Bryant shooting 6-24 from the field. A team that defends well and plays hard can survive a poor individual shooting performance by a star.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points, dished for a game-high/playoff career-high 12 assists, grabbed five rebounds, blocked two shots, and had just one turnover. He shot 8-27 from the field, but his scoring and playmaking accounted for more than half of the Thunder's points. By continuing to shoot even though his field goal percentage was not great, Gilgeous-Alexander put pressure on the Pacers' defense; the worst thing for a team in a big game is not when the team's star shoots 8-27, but rather when he shoots 4-14, because a passive star player is much easier to guard than an active star player: when a star player aggressively attacks the defense that forces the defense to react by sending help, which opens up scoring opportunities and offensive rebounding opportunities for the star's teammates, secondary but important effects that are not tracked well or even understood by many "stat gurus" who focus on what they define as "efficiency" without giving sufficient consideration to other factors. 

During the NBA Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, and 1.6 bpg with shooting splits of .443/.242/.914, earning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP and becoming the first player to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000). He is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000).

Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (7-20), but he made critical contributions with 20 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and just one turnover. He had a game-best +13 plus/minus number. Chet Holmgren anchored the defense in the paint, setting an NBA Finals game seven record with five blocked shots while also scoring 18 points on 6-8 field goal shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. The Thunder improved to 3-1 in this series with Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup; he had seven points, a team-high nine rebounds, and four assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Hartenstein were the only three Thunder players who had an assist. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace each scored 10 points off of the bench.

The biggest story for the Pacers was that Tyrese Haliburton, the team's primary playmaker and clutch shot maker, fell to the court with a non-contact lower right leg injury at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter and was unable to play the rest of the way. He had already scored nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting, and even though the Thunder led 18-16 when Haliburton left the game it is fair to wonder how the game might have proceeded if Haliburton had stayed healthy. Haliburton's injury not only impacted game seven and this series but it could have implications for the balance of power in the Eastern Conference if he misses most or all of next season.

Bennedict Mathurin stepped up in Haliburton's absence, scoring a team-high 24 points and grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds in 33 minutes off of the bench. Pascal Siakam added 16 points but shot just 5-13 from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 16 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers; he scored 12 points on 6-7 field goal shooting in eight minutes in the third quarter, but had just four points on 2-6 field goal shooting in his other 20 minutes of action, which highlights a point that I made in my game five recap: just because a bench player has a brief productive stretch that does not mean that if his playing time is extended he will continue to score at that same per minute rate; there are reasons that bench players are bench players and starters are starters, including conditioning, and ability to match up with various players/defensive schemes.

The Pacers took an 11-6 lead to start the game in a closely contested first quarter featuring three lead changes and four ties with neither team leading by more than five points. After Haliburton's injury, the Pacers seemed to be inspired while the Thunder seemed to be complacent and tentative. The Pacers outscored the Thunder 26-22 in the second quarter to build a slim 48-47 halftime edge as the Thunder shot 4-18 (.222) from three point range in the first half.

In the third quarter, the Thunder ramped up the defensive pressure--forcing eight turnovers that they converted into 18 points--while not committing a single turnover, and shooting a respectable 5-13 (.385) from beyond the arc. The Pacers were still behind by just four points, 70-66, at the 3:54 mark of the third quarter, but the Thunder closed that stanza with an 11-2 run to enter the fourth quarter with an 81-68 lead. McConnell scored the Pacers' final 12 third quarter points, but down the stretch in the third quarter it became evident that the Pacers could not deal with the Thunder's defensive pressure.  

The Thunder led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter before the Pacers made one final push to slash the margin to 96-86 with 2:16 remaining, but the Thunder went on a 6-1 burst to remove any doubt; the Pacers may be the comeback kings, but the Thunder are a historically dominant team, particularly at home: the Thunder set a single season playoff record with a +259 point differential at home, and their only two home playoff losses--game one of the NBA Finals versus Indiana, and game one in the second round versus Denver--were on buzzer beaters. With this win, the Thunder improved to 19-2 after a loss (regular season and playoffs combined), the best such single season mark in NBA history.

The Thunder went 84-21 overall during the regular season and playoffs combined, tied with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (84-17) for the third most wins all-time, trailing only the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88-18, but lost in the NBA Finals), and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87-13). It should be noted that the NBA expanded the playoff format in 1983-84 (adding a best of five first round series to the three existing best of seven series) and in 2002-03 (extending the first round from best of five to best of seven), so before those years teams did not have the same opportunities to win 84-plus games. The Thunder are the second youngest team to win an NBA title, trailing only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers--a squad that provides a cautionary tale, as they never returned to the NBA Finals after injuries ended Bill Walton's brief tenure as the sport's best player. On paper, it looks like the Thunder are well positioned to contend for championships for the next several years, but in practice it is very difficult for a team to win multiple titles; there have been just four repeat champions since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls notched a pair of three-peats in the 1990s: the 2000-02 L.A. Lakers, the 2009-10 L.A. Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat, and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 AM

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Pacers Rout Thunder 108-91 to Force a Seventh Game in Oklahoma City

The Indiana Pacers fell behind 10-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder at home in game six before outscoring the Thunder 62-32 the rest of the first half en route to a dominant 108-91 victory to tie the series at 3-3. The game was not as close as the final score may suggest; the Pacers led by as many as 31 points in the second half, were ahead by 25-plus points for substantial portions of the second half, and their fourth quarter lead did not drop below 20 points until the final 1:18. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 46-41, and forced 21 turnovers that they converted into 19 points while only committing 11 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 13 points. Those extra possessions were a major factor in a game during which both teams shot worse than .420 from the field. Another significant factor was that the Pacers shot 15-42 (.357) from three point range while holding the Thunder to 8-30 (.267) three point shooting; the Pacers did not shoot great, but the Thunder's terrible long range shooting was too much to overcome when the Thunder also lost the possession game by a wide margin. 

The Pacers shot 0-8 from the field to start the game, and they shot just 8-25 (.320) from the field in the first quarter, but they already led 28-25 after the first 12 minutes because they launched four more field goal attempts than the Thunder while making five first quarter three pointers and holding the Thunder to just one first quarter three pointer. As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter set the tone for the game: the Pacers were the aggressors, the Pacers attempted more field goals, and the Pacers made timely three pointers while the Thunder misfired from beyond the arc. 

In today's NBA featuring volume three point shooting and fast-paced play, a 22 point halftime lead is not insurmountable, but what killed the Thunder is that they did not score from the 1:46 mark of the second quarter until 6:57 remained in the third quarter, a nearly seven minute drought during which the Pacers expanded their advantage from 58-42 to 70-42; the Pacers were not burning up the nets by scoring 12 points in seven minutes, but failing to score at all while already trailing by double digits signaled that this was just not the Thunder's night. 

The Pacers are a better and tougher team than I realized. It would have been easy to fold after losing game five in convincing fashion versus a team that is justifiably considered the favorite, but the Pacers showed resolve not seen from some teams that are more highly touted. The balanced Pacers attack featured six double figure scorers who each had between 10 and 20 points. Obi Toppin, the pride of the University of Dayton, led the Pacers with 20 points in 23 minutes off of the bench. He also had six rebounds, a game-high four treys, and two steals. Andrew Nembhard added 17 points, four assists, and three steals. Pascal Siakam had 16 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and three assists. Tyrese Haliburton did not seem to be unduly hampered by his much-discussed calf injury, finishing with 14 points, five assists, two steals, and just one turnover; he had a game-high +25 plus/minus number, and he made those who suggested that he should be benched look quite foolish. T.J. McConnell provided an important spark off of the bench with 12 points, nine rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals that matched the entire Thunder team's output in a category that they are used to dominating.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He had four rebounds, two assists, and no steals or blocked shots, a marked contrast with his 31 points, 10 assists, four blocked shots, and two steals in the Thunder's game five win. In game six, Gilgeous-Alexander logged a "Harden" with more turnovers (game-high eight) than field goals made (seven). Jalen Williams followed up his 40 point game five masterpiece with just 16 points in game six. Chet Holmgren had four points on 2-9 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots. 

If the Thunder lose this series, they will rue falling behind 2-1 after inexplicably putting Cason Wallace in the starting lineup in place of Isaiah Hartenstein during the first three games. The Thunder went 45-8 during the regular season when Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the playoffs with Hartenstein as a starter prior to the NBA Finals; the Thunder are now 2-1 in the NBA Finals with Hartenstein as a starter, and 1-2 when he did not start. The lineup change did not have a discernible impact on game six, but the larger point is that if the Thunder had deployed their regular starting lineup in each of the first five games they may have won the series at home in game five instead of being pushed to a seventh game.

The Thunder's effort level and efficiency from opening tip until final buzzer indicated that their players had the attitude that this was not a must win game because they will have game seven at home. The Thunder are 18-2 after a loss during the regular season and playoffs, so they have good reason to be confident, but Tex Winter often said, "Everything turns on a trifle": in game seven, a turned ankle, a bad call, or a funny bounce of the ball could change the game, the series, and the way that both teams are remembered. Game to game momentum in a series does not exist, because the next game is played in a different arena under different circumstances beginning with a 0-0 score, not a double digit lead for the winner of the previous game--but momentum within a game can exist, and can decide a series in game seven.

However, even though the underdog has a puncher's chance once a series reaches a seventh game, the reality is that the home team wins NBA game sevens over 74% of the time. The Thunder are in control of this series until proven otherwise, and the Thunder have demonstrated that blowout losses do not impact their confidence or their level of play. In the second round, the Thunder lost to the Denver Nuggets 119-107 in game six, and then the Thunder won game seven, 125-93. After taking a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 143-101, and then the Thunder won the next two games to close out the series. 

The Pacers' dominant win will almost certainly inspire a lot of overreaction, which is a staple of NBA coverage (and sports coverage in general). Regardless of any hype to the contrary, a blowout Thunder win is the most likely game seven outcome, followed by a close Thunder win; a blowout Thunder win may seem unimaginable now in the immediate wake of the Pacers' dominant game six performance, but game six will be a distant memory when the comfortable and confident Thunder race out to an early game seven lead. A close Pacers win is possible but unlikely, and a blowout Pacers win at Oklahoma City is very unlikely barring unusual circumstance (injuries, foul trouble, or early ejections). 

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

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Thunder's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Pacers in Game Five

Jalen Williams scored a playoff career-high 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 win versus the Indiana Pacers in game five of the NBA Finals. The Thunder seized a 3-2 advantage, and put the Pacers behind in a series for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Williams is the third youngest player with three straight 25 point games in the NBA Finals since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger; the only two younger players to accomplish that feat in that time period are Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Durant. The 24 year old Williams is also the fifth youngest player to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson (20 years old in the 1980 NBA Finals), Rick Barry (three times in 1967 as a 23 year old), Russell Westbrook (23 years old in 2012), and Jerry West (23 years old in 1962).

The Thunder's one-two punch is usually Gilgeous-Alexander followed by Williams, but in this game reversing the order proved to be very effective. Williams shot 14-25 from the field while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 35 minutes. He had just one turnover. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9-21 from the field, dished for a game-high 10 assists, logged a game-high four blocked shots, and swiped two steals in 38 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 12 games this postseason with at least 30 points and at least 10 assists, breaking the record of 11 formerly held by Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Gilgeous-Alexander had three turnovers, which is an acceptable number given his high usage as a scorer/playmaker. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint, and that enabled them to repeatedly draw fouls: Williams shot 9-12 from the free throw line, while Gilgeous-Alexander connected on 13 of his 14 free throw attempts. 

Aaron Wiggins (14 points, five rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench) and Cason Wallace (11 points, four steals in 17 minutes off of the bench) were the only other Thunder players who scored in double figures, but when the top two players combine for 71 points not much other offensive support is needed. Chet Holmgren scored nine points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and blocked three shots, so he made a positive impact despite shooting just 4-15 from the field. Lu Dort added nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals, while Alex Caruso scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting but was a defensive menace with four steals and one blocked shot.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring six rebounds, dishing for five assists, poaching three steals, and blocking two shots, but he had six of the Pacers' 23 turnovers. T.J. McConnell scored 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting in 22 minutes off of the bench while also accumulating four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had the Pacers' second best plus/minus number (+4), and he had 13 third quarter points as the Pacers outscored the Thunder 34-28 in that stanza to trim the Thunder's 59-45 halftime lead to 87-79. Bennedict Mathurin scored seven points and had a team-high eight rebounds, and he posted the team's best plus/minus number (+6) despite shooting  just 2-11 from the field. Tyrese Haliburton, who has repeatedly saved the Pacers with big shots in clutch moments, had a scoreless first half on 0-5 field goal shooting before finishing with four points on 0-6 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists in 34 minutes. He was limited by a right calf injury but--as Pacers' Coach Rick Carlisle correctly noted during his postgame remarks--many players are limited by injuries at this stage of the season. 

The Thunder scored 32 points off of Indiana's turnovers while conceding just nine points from their 11 turnovers, and those extra possessions enabled the Thunder to prevail despite shooting just 40-94 (.426) from the field while also losing the rebounding battle, 50-45. The Pacers led the Thunder in points in the paint (48-42) and second chance points (21-17), but the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure with the dynamic scoring/playmaking of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander decided the outcome.

The Thunder led for the final 44:52 of the game, and built the margin to 18 (56-38) at the 2:29 mark of the second quarter. McConnell's fantastic third quarter helped the Pacers to chip away, and the Pacers pulled to within two points (95-93) after Siakam hit a three pointer at the 8:30 mark of the fourth quarter. The Thunder then went on an 18-4 run to seal the game and, most likely, the series; during that crucial stretch, Williams scored eight points and Gilgeous-Alexander scored five points. 

Oklahoma City probably would have already won the series if Thunder Coach Mark Daigenault had not blundered by changing his starting lineup prior to game one, inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein; the Thunder lost that game and trailed 2-1 before Daigneault went back to the starting lineup that posted a 45-8 regular season record and a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder won game four after putting Hartenstein back in the starting lineup and are now 2-0 in this series with the starting lineup that carried them to most of their wins in the regular season and the playoffs. Hartenstein's game five numbers--four points, eight rebounds, four assists--are not gaudy, but the goal is to win games, not to be "analytically correct." With Hartenstein in the starting lineup, all of the Thunder's players are in their natural and accustomed roles, which enabled the Thunder to not only build a 29-17 first quarter lead but to also withstand the inevitable Indiana comeback. 

Just at it would be wrong to evaluate the Thunder's starting lineup change based solely on the numbers posted by Hartenstein or Wallace outside of the larger context of the team's overall play, it would also be wrong to assert that Carlisle erred by not giving McConnell more minutes at Haliburton's expense in game five. McConnell is a bench player who performs best against bench players while his minutes are maintained within a certain range. Call it the "Trevor Ariza effect." Carlisle explained after game five that he managed McConnell's late game minutes based on McConnell being fatigued and making some errors that seemed to be a result of that fatigue. A "stat guru" might argue that because McConnell scored 18 points in 22 minutes he would have scored 36 points in 44 minutes, but that is not how NBA basketball works; if McConnell had played 22 more minutes it is much more likely that his turnovers and missed field goals would have increased than that his point total would have doubled. 

"Stat gurus" focus too much on per minute and per possession statistics without understanding or acknowledging other factors, and that faulty, limited way of conceptualizing the game leads "stat gurus" to make flawed assertions, such as declaring that Manu Ginobili was just as good as Kobe Bryant, which is demonstrably false for a variety of reasons, including the difference between being a player who logs heavy minutes as the number one option versus being a player who logs limited minutes while often playing against bench players. Understanding that difference is one reason that I correctly predicted that James Harden would not lead a team to the NBA Finals as a number one option even though he was efficient as the third option for the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder team that reached the 2012 NBA Finals. 

Talking about "adjustments" and substitution patterns is one way that commentators attempt to sound well-informed even when they lack foundational knowledge about the NBA game. The reality is that the best "adjustment" is playing harder. Coaches usually have good reasons for their substitution patterns, based on their observations of their players in practices and in games. The Hartenstein-Wallace change is an unusual example of a coach outsmarting himself--probably based on some "stat guru" feeding him nonsense about the supposed advantages of using a small lineup against Indiana--and it is fortunate for the Thunder that Daigenault was not too stubborn to reverse course before the Thunder fell into a 3-1 hole.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

9 comments

Grit and Poise: Thunder Outlast Pacers to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

The Indiana Pacers led the Oklahoma City Thunder 86-76 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter of game four of the NBA Finals, but the Thunder outscored the Pacers 35-18 the rest of the way--including 12-1 in the final 3:20--to win 111-104 and reclaim homecourt advantage. The series shifts back to Oklahoma City on Monday night tied 2-2 after the Pacers led 1-0 and 2-1. This was the Thunder's second lowest scoring total in a win in the 2025 playoffs; they lost five of their previous six playoff games when they scored less than 112 points, but they are 12-1 in the 2025 playoffs when they score at least 112 points. The Thunder improved to 5-0 following a loss in 2025 playoffs.

The Thunder cruised through most of the 2024-25 regular season and went 12-4 in their first 16 playoff games, but beating the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals has been a tough challenge for the Thunder, who displayed a lot of grit and poise to come from behind to win on the road versus a team that has thrived in games that are close late in the fourth quarter.

The Thunder prevailed by outscoring the Pacers 50-36 in the paint after being outscored 50-48 in the paint in their game three loss. The Thunder also outrebounded the Pacers 43-33 while holding the Pacers to 34-80 (.425) field goal shooting. We are often told that range shooting and spreading the floor are essential for teams to be successful in today's NBA, but the Thunder won despite shooting just 3-17 (.176) from three point range because size matters in the NBA, and because controlling the paint is a major factor for a championship contender. 

The biggest change that Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault made--literally and figuratively--was reinserting Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup after replacing him with Cason Wallace in the first three games of this series. The move back to Hartenstein may not have seemed to help the Thunder when the Pacers jumped out to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but going back to the lineup and player rotation that enabled the Thunder to be a dominant team during the regular season and first three rounds of the playoffs paid dividends as the Thunder wore down the Pacers the rest of the way. Wallace's minutes have decreased from 33 in game one to 23 in game two, 24 in game three, and 19 in game four. Hartenstein's minutes have been fairly consistent--17, 22, 18, 21--but the Thunder won the two games when he played at least 20 minutes and lost the two games when he played less than 20 minutes. Daigneault tried to be clever by changing his starting lineup for the first three games and that move backfired, but he deserves credit for recognizing his mistake before it was too late to salvage this series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 35 points on 12-24 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting, including 15 fourth quarter points. He had no assists, but sometimes the most effective way for a team's best player to impact winning is to accept the burden of scoring even when the defense is tilted against him. Instead of insisting on making the "right" play, Gilgeous-Alexander made winning plays by putting the ball in the basket when the game was up for grabs. He has scored 131 points in this series so far, the third most points scored by a player in the first four NBA Finals games of his career, trailing only Rick Barry (165) and Allen Iverson (141). Jalen Williams often initiated the offense while Gilgeous-Alexander played off of the ball, and Williams finished with 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Alex Caruso contributed 20 points and a game-high tying five steals in 30 minutes off of the bench. Chet Holmgren powered his thin frame to 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. 

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 20 points and a game-high tying five steals while also grabbing eight rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field. Nine Pacers played in this game, and Siakam was one of just three with a positive plus/minus number (+7, best on the Pacers). Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points and had a game-high seven assists but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Obi Toppin scored 17 points and snared seven rebounds in 29 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. 

The Thunder became accustomed to easy, pretty wins during their dream regular season and for two of the first three rounds of the playoffs, but the NBA Finals have been a series of battles that are testing--and forging--the championship mettle of both teams. If the Thunder keep Hartenstein in the starting lineup, don't make any silly rotation changes, and use their size to dominate the paint then they have a great chance to prevail in game five to move to within one win of an NBA title.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Obi Toppin, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM

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Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs. 

Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.

The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. 

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.

The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57 regular season games that he played this season before starting each of the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53 regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the 16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the "advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly, screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."    

Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage. 

The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).

This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.

The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.

The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.

Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM

8 comments

Rolling Thunder: Oklahoma City Slows Down Indiana, Ties Series at 1-1

After losing game one of the NBA Finals to the Indiana Pacers in stunning fashion, the Oklahoma City Thunder led game two 26-20 at the end of the first quarter and never trailed the rest of the way en route to a 123-107 victory. The Thunder outrebounded the Pacers 43-35 after being outrebounded 56-39 in game one, but the biggest difference is that the Thunder shot 40-82 (.488) from the field after shooting just 39-98 (.398) from the field in game one. The Thunder outscored the Pacers in each of the first three quarters before losing the fourth quarter 33-30 because of a cosmetic 11-6 run by the Pacers during which the outcome was never in doubt.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, he dished for a game-high eight assists, and he had a game-high four steals. Gilgeous-Alexander scored at least 30 points in a home playoff game for the ninth straight time, tying an NBA record set by Wilt Chamberlain from 1961-64. Gilgeous-Alexander is not only an efficient and prolific scorer, but he attracts so much defensive attention that he creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. The term "gravity" seemingly has been trademarked only for use in reference to Stephen Curry even though the reality is that great players have tilted the floor/commanded double teams/exerted "gravity" throughout basketball history. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 72 points in the first two games of his first NBA Finals appearance; in contrast, Curry scored just 45 points in his first two NBA Final games, producing 26 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in a 108-100 overtime win versus Cleveland in the 2015 NBA Finals and then scoring 19 points on 5-23 field goal shooting in a 95-93 overtime loss to Cleveland in that series. Curry's Warriors trailed 2-1 in that series before winning the title in six games as Andre Iguodala earned the Finals MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander is already a more impactful player at both ends of the court than Curry was during his prime, and Gilgeous-Alexander is still improving.

Alex Caruso, known primarily as a defensive stopper, poured in 20 points on 6-11 field goal shooting in 27 minutes off of the bench. Jalen Williams shot poorly from the field (5-14) for the second game in a row, but still finished with 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Aaron Wiggins made a big impact with 18 points off of the bench in 21 minutes, logging by far the best/plus minus number (+24) of any player in this game. Chet Holmgren bounced back from a subpar game one performance to finish with 15 points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot.

Replacing Isaiah Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup proved disastrous in game one, but in game two the Thunder played so much better overall that the change had less of an obvious impact; after posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number in game one, Wallace had a +12 plus/minus number in game two while scoring four points in 23 minutes. Wallace did not light up the scoreboard, but at least he did not torch the Thunder's chances to win. Hartenstein led the Thunder in rebounding (eight) for the second game in a row, he ranked second on the team in assists (four), and he had the Thunder's second best plus/minus number (+17) despite scoring just three points in 22 minutes. Coach Mark Daigneault did not overtly admit that his lineup switch was a mistake by switching back, but in game one Wallace played 33 minutes and Hartenstein played just 17 minutes, compared to 23 and 22 respectively in game two. Look for Hartenstein's minutes to increase and Wallace's minutes to decrease even if Daigneault stubbornly sticks with his changed starting lineup.

Game one hero Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 17 points and had a team-high tying six assists, but he also had a game-high five turnovers. Haliburton's scoring total is inflated by his 12 fourth quarter points when the Pacers trailed by at least 15 points during the entire final stanza; he did not have much of an impact during the first three quarters. Six other Pacers scored between 11 points and 16 points. Pascal Siakam shot just 3-11 from the field, finishing with 15 points, a team-high seven rebounds, and four assists. T.J. McConnell had 11 points plus a game-high tying six assists. The Pacers tried to get the job done by committee, but the Thunder not only have a better committee but they also clearly have the best individual player in Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Pacers own homecourt advantage in this series thanks to their game one win, but the Thunder have beaten the Pacers three of the last four games that they played, and the Thunder have looked like the superior team for the vast majority of time during those four games. As the series shifts venues, there will be different officiating crews and other game to game changes, and the Pacers' bench players will likely perform better than they did in Oklahoma City, but the better team generally prevails in a seven game series and the Thunder have demonstrated that they are the better team.

Some 1-1 series are more "equal" than others; in the 1991 NBA Finals, the Chicago Bulls lost game one to the L.A. Lakers on a last second shot, won game two 107-86, and won the next three games to clinch the first of their six NBA titles. It would not be surprising to see this series follow a similar course.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:10 AM

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Never Too Late: Haliburton's Last Second Game Winner Stuns Thunder, Lifts Pacers to 1-0 NBA Finals Lead

The Indiana Pacers did not enjoy the lead once in the first 47:59.7 of game one of the NBA Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder--but they very much enjoyed having the lead for the final :00.3 after Tyrese Haliburton drained the game-winning jump shot in a stunning 111-110 victory. This is the fifth time in the 2025 playoffs that the Pacers won after trailing by at least 15 points, and they have accomplished that feat at least once in each of their four playoff series versus Milwaukee, Cleveland (twice), New York, and now Oklahoma City. The Pacers trailed 94-79 at the 9:42 mark of the fourth quarter versus the Thunder, and were still behind 108-99 with 2:52 left in the fourth quarter, but they kept chipping away until Haliburton delivered the dagger after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed a shot with 11 seconds remaining that could have given the Thunder a three point cushion.

Six Pacers scored in double figures, including all five starters. The 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam had a team-high 19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds. Obi Toppin added 17 points off of the bench, and Myles Turner contributed 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots. Haliburton had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. Andrew Nembhard scored 14 points while dishing for a game-high tying six assists. Aaron Nesmith made his presence felt with 10 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in a game-high 38 points on 14-30 field goal shooting in his first career NBA Finals game. The moment seemed a little big for Jalen Williams, who finished with 17 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. The Thunder forced 25 turnovers and had 14 steals, but they scored just 11 points off of those extra possessions; the Pacers deserve credit for not just giving up after they turned the ball over, but the Thunder also missed a lot of high quality shots from all over the court. 

Even though the Thunder led most of the way, they failed to deliver the killer third quarter blow that is their trademark. Why was this game different? The answer, as is often the case in an NBA game, is found not in the third quarter or even in the fourth quarter, but rather in the first quarter. The Thunder went 12-4 during the 2025 playoffs with a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they went 2-0 versus the Pacers in the regular season with that starting lineup--but Coach Mark Daigneault replaced Hartenstein with Cason Wallace in the starting lineup for game one. Wallace finished with six points on 3-9 field goal shooting in 33 minutes, posting a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, while Hartenstein had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds in 17 minutes while notching a +2 plus/minus number. Sometimes the best "adjustment" is to not overthink things but to just stay the course and show confidence that your team's league-leading record is not a fluke; it will be interesting to see if Daigneault concedes his error and reinstates Hartenstein in the starting lineup for game two, or if he doubles down by keeping Wallace in the starting lineup.

The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 56-39, and the Thunder shot just 39-98 (.398) from the field, so it is evident that going small and changing the rotation backfired in multiple ways: Wallace was not productive as a starter, limiting Hartenstein's minutes hurt the Thunder on the glass, and the Thunder were much less efficient than usual offensively. Players are creatures of habit, so changing the starting lineup can have a downstream effect on the entire roster--not to mention that the favorite team should not show any sign of weakness, including suggesting that their starting lineup is not good enough to beat the opposing team's starting lineup. Daigneault's questionable move is reminiscent of how Avery Johnson outcoached himself 18 years ago in the first round of the 2007 playoffs; the 42-40 Golden State Warriors upset Johnson's 67-15 Dallas Mavericks after the Mavericks changed their starting lineup prior to game one, going small to match up with Golden State's small lineup. The Warriors won game one, and later won the series 4-2. 

This game's ending provided an example of Rick Carlisle's evolution as a coach; he has always been a smart and strategic coach, but in his early years he could be inflexible and he tended to micromanage game situations; young Carlisle would probably have called a timeout after Nembhard's defensive rebound with 6.9 seconds remaining, but veteran Carlisle trusted his team to play out the final seconds, and they rewarded his trust by getting the ball to Haliburton, who coolly delivered the dagger. 

The series is not over, and momentum does not carry over to the next game, but game one winners go on to take the series more than 77% of the time so the Pacers are in command of this series unless the Thunder not only tie the series but also win a game in Indiana.

Labels: Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM

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Knicks Fire Their Most Successful Coach of the Past 25 Years

"You're timing stinks. We've just made a billion eight for the second year in a row. That's three and a half billion in the past two years. But mark my words, Henry. You may never see a billion eight again. And do you know why? Because you don't know how the f--- we made it in the first place." Lee Iacocca to Henry Ford after being fired by Ford

A family run business can hire and fire on a whim. That is how Ford Motor Company operated under Henry Ford II, which is how Lee Iacocca ended up at Chrysler, where he revitalized a company that had seemed to be on the brink of imminent collapse; meanwhile, Ford Motor Company's market share gradually declined after the Iacocca firing. Iacocca had a lot to do with Ford Motor Company's success in the 1960s and 1970s, but job performance had nothing to do with Henry Ford II's decision to fire Iacocca. 

What does this trip down automotive history memory lane have to do with the NBA? Tom Thibodeau just coached the New York Knicks to their most successful season in the past 25 years--the culmination of three straight years of improved regular season records--but that was not enough to save his job when James Dolan decided to fire him. Much like Henry Ford II ran Ford Motor Company as a family business (never mind the existence of a supposedly independent board of directors), Dolan runs the Knicks as a personal fiefdom where he can declare "Off with their heads!" on a whim. 

The Knicks steadily improved during Thibodeau's tenure, and before this season began no reasonable person would have said that reaching the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals would constitute failure, let alone be a fireable offense. The Knicks went 21-45 in the COVID-19 abbreviated 2019-20 season, and then went 41-31 in Thibodeau's first season at the helm. After slipping to 37-45 in 2021-22, the Knicks went 47-35, 50-32, and 51-31 in the next three seasons, advancing to the second round in back to back years before reaching the Eastern Conference Finals this season.

Prior to hiring Thibodeau in 2020, the Knicks had missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons under six different coaches. The Knicks have had 13 head coaches in the 24 years since the departure of Jeff Van Gundy in 2001.

Do you see the pattern? The one constant is James Dolan, who has owned the team through all of this turbulence; the general managers change, the coaches change, the players change, but Dolan is always there, presiding over the chaos. 

Firing excellent coaches is a trademark move of a dysfunctional franchise. Sensible reasons to fire a coach include underperformance relative to reasonable expectations, declining performance in the absence of extenuating circumstances, or the availability of a superior coach. Those reasons are not applicable to Thibodeau and the Knicks. 

Bashing excellent coaches is a trademark move of media members who do not understand the sport that they cover. The correct way to critique a coach is to focus on a specific coaching decision, provide evidence demonstrating why that coaching decision was suboptimal, and then suggest an alternative coaching decision that would have been better, supporting that alternative with evidence. Media members do not do this for a simple reason: they are not capable of doing this. The barriers to entry for some fields are quite high: to become an attorney, you must first get a high LSAT score, then you must graduate from law school, and then you must pass the bar exam; to become a chess master, you must achieve a rating in timed, competitive play that exceeds the ratings of 99% of competitive chess players. To become a media member, all you have to do is know someone who knows someone who likes you, and that is why media members who could not coach their way out of a paper bag with a machete are paid to intone solemnly (or yell bombastically) about how they would coach a team much better than a career professional coach would.

The prevailing media-driven narrative that Thibodeau did not use his bench enough is as lazy as it is stupid, and the people who propagate that nonsense fail to explain (1) who specifically Thibodeau should have played more minutes, (2) who specifically Thibodeau should have played fewer minutes, and (3) what evidence exists to demonstrate that making those moves would have produced a better outcome than losing in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When I critique a coach, I provide specific evidence-based reasons for that critique. For example, when Kevin Durant entered the NBA and Seattle Coach P.J. Carlesimo declared that he would move Durant from forward to guard, I expressed skepticism: 

Durant has not played one minute of regular season action in the NBA, yet even though he has been advertised as a great inside player his coach already wants him to switch positions. Carlesimo clearly wants to spare Durant from being pounded in the paint but the move to the backcourt will lead to other problems. To the best of my knowledge, Durant has never played guard; now he will have to learn how to do so against the best guards in the world. Also, from what I saw in the summer league, Durant has a very high dribble and is not a great ballhandler, so he will be a turnover waiting to happen if he is relied upon to do a lot of dribbling.

Durant clearly needs to put on some weight but that will be true regardless of which position he plays. I think that he and Seattle would be better served if he takes his lumps at his natural small forward position where he will at least be in the comfort zone of playing in areas of the court that are familiar to him.

The Seattle franchise subsequently moved to Oklahoma City and replaced Carlesimo with Scott Brooks, who immediately shifted Durant back to forward, a decision that I praised: "Moving Durant to small forward is a big step in the right direction that I predict will pay noticeable dividends, possibly as soon as the end of this season." The rest is history, as Durant assembled a Hall of Fame career as a forward; he averaged 20.3 ppg on .430 field goal shooting in his one year as a shooting guard, and in the next 16 seasons he never averaged less than 25.1 ppg and he never shot worse than .462 from the field.

A few years later, Carlesimo was coaching the Brooklyn Nets and Thibodeau was coaching the Chicago Bulls. The teams met in the first round of the 2013 playoffs, and I predicted that Chicago would win: "This series features a huge coaching mismatch. TNT's Kenny Smith says that if a team loses by more than five points then blame the players but if it loses by less than five points blame the coach; the games in this series figure to be low scoring and close and I trust Chicago's Tom Thibodeau much more than I trust Brooklyn's P. J. Carlesimo; this is not just about in-game adjustments but also about elements of preparation that give one team an edge over another." Sure enough, Chicago--which had won 45 games during the regular season while Brooklyn had won 49 games--won that series, 4-3. After the series, I distinguished coach evaluating from coach bashing:

Coach bashing is a favorite media pastime but most media members do not have a clue how to determine if a team is well coached or poorly coached. I respect all NBA coaches tremendously and I fully realize that even a bad NBA head coach knows more about basketball than the vast majority of coaches at any other level of the sport; [George] Karl is a very good NBA coach but he seems to be better suited for rebuilding teams/coaching underdogs than he is at extracting the maximum out of 50-plus win teams. Carlesimo was an excellent collegiate coach and he served as an assistant on Gregg Popovich's San Antonio staff so Carlesimo obviously has a very good basketball mind--but as an NBA head coach he has not measured up well in comparison with the best of the best, a category in which Thibodeau clearly belongs.

When I critique coaches like Carlesimo and Karl I am not trying to suggest that I know more about basketball than they do or that I would be a better NBA head coach; in other words, I am not acting like Bill Simmons. I am just doing my job as an NBA analyst by pointing out that, as much as Karl and Carlesimo know about basketball, there are other coaches who are demonstrably performing at a higher level.

Media members do not like to admit being wrong and it is interesting to see the lengths some of them will go to in order to avoid such admissions. Simmons used to regularly bash Doc Rivers' coaching acumen but now Rivers is widely recognized as a great coach so Simmons had to stop degrading Rivers--but did Simmons admit that he was wrong? Of course not! Simmons' story is that Rivers has evolved into being a great coach. Rivers won the 2000 Coach of the Year award in his first season as an NBA head coach after leading the "heart and hustle" Orlando Magic to a 41-41 record with Darrell Armstrong, John Amaechi and Chucky Atkins as the top three players in the rotation. Has Rivers become a better coach in the intervening 13 years? I am sure that he has; I hope that anyone who does something for more than a decade becomes better at it--but the idea that Rivers was a terrible coach who then became a great coach is absurd. Simmons was dead wrong about Rivers and he should just admit it. 

After retiring from the NBA, Brian Scalabrine has played several one on one games versus regular people who assume that because he was a bench player in the league and is now a retired player they have a chance to beat him--but Scalabrine routinely dominates these players, and he has correctly stated that he is closer to LeBron James' level than any of those players are to his level. Similarly, the worst coach in the NBA is closer to Phil Jackson's level of basketball understanding and acumen than any media member is to the worst coach's basketball understanding and acumen. In other words, media members should approach their craft with humility and with the goal of trying to learn more about basketball strategy--but that does not generate hype or TV ratings, so basketball fans will continue to be subjected to empty minds with large mouths loudly proclaiming "hot takes" devoid of cold logic.

Labels: James Dolan, Jeff Van Gundy, Kevin Durant, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, P.J. Carlesimo, Scott Brooks, Seattle Supersonics, Tom Thibodeau

posted by David Friedman @ 10:32 PM

2 comments

Oklahoma City Versus Indiana Preview

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. Indiana (50-32)

Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-0

Indiana can win if…Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an efficient fast-paced attack with high percentage shooting and minimal turnovers. Haliburton has been very consistent in the first two playoff runs of his young career: last year he averaged 18.7 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.8 rpg with shooting splits of .488/.379/.850 while leading the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals, and so far this year he has averaged 18.8 ppg, a league-leading 9.8 apg, and 5.7 rpg with shooting splits of .466/.333/.804 while leading the Pacers to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. He did not make the All-Star team in 2025 after earning two straight selections from 2023-24, but he is the engine that makes the Pacers go. Haliburton conducted the show as the Pacers ran past the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after upsetting the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (20.1 ppg) during the regular season, and this was the sixth straight season he averaged at least 20 ppg. The three-time All-Star was the Pacers' only All-Star this season, and he is leading the Pacers in playoff scoring (21.1 ppg). Siakam won the 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and he played a key role for Toronto's 2019 championship team. The Pacers have few set plays for him, but he runs the floor well and he is an efficient three level scorer when the game slows down.

Myles Turner twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2019, 2021), and he ranked in the top 10 in blocked shots in eight of the past nine seasons, including 2024-25 (2.0 bpg, third). He is not a great rebounder (6.5 rpg this season, 6.8 rpg for his career, 4.9 rpg in the 2025 playoffs) but he is an efficient double figure scorer (15.6 ppg on .481 field goal shooting during the regular season, 15.2 ppg on .525 field goal shooting during the playoffs).

Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers in three point field goals made (43) in the 2025 playoffs, and he ranks first in three point field goal percentage (.500) among the eight Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs. He is also a physical, crafty defensive player who ranks third on the Pacers in playoff rebounding (5.6 rpg), second in blocked shots (.8 bpg), and fourth in steals (.9 spg).

Andrew Nembhard leads the Pacers in playoff steals (1.6 spg) while ranking second in assists (5.1 apg), third in three point field goals made (29), and second in three point filed goal percentage (.483) among the Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs.

The Pacers have a talented and deep roster, and they have exceeded all reasonable expectations for how far they could advance in the 2025 playoffs.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder do many of the things that the Pacers do on offense, but the Thunder are better at most of those things: the Pacers ranked seventh in the NBA in regular season scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488)--but the Thunder ranked fourth in regular season scoring (120.5 ppg) with just a slightly lower field goal percentage (.482). The Pacers ranked ninth in regular season three point field goal percentage (.368); the Thunder ranked sixth (.374).

The Thunder not only can match the Pacers shot for shot offensively, but the Thunder have a superior defense. The Thunder set the all-time regular season record for point differential (12.9 ppg), and they have a double digit point differential in the playoffs (10.9 ppg) even though competition is tougher in the postseason. They led the NBA in turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) during the regular season, and they are leading the playoffs with 18.0 tpg forced. The Thunder rank second in the playoffs for fewest turnovers committed (11.8 tpg, just behind the much slower paced Orlando Magic, who averaged 11.6 tpg in a five game first round loss). During the regular season, the Thunder led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.436), two point field goal percentage defense (.513), three point field goal percentage defense (.342), and steals (10.3 spg) while ranking third in points allowed (107.6 ppg); during the playoffs, the Thunder rank first in defensive field goal percentage (.426), second in two point field goal percentage defense (.501), fourth in three point field goal percentage defense (.331), first in steals (10.8 spg), and fourth in points allowed (106.3 ppg). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025 regular season MVP after leading the league in scoring with a career-high 32.7 ppg, and he was even more effective in his two games versus the Pacers this season: 39.0 ppg with shooting splits of .556/.636/.913. He also averaged 8.0 apg and 7.0 rpg in those games while committing just one turnover in 69 minutes. The Pacers defended Jalen Brunson well in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Brunson still averaged 30.7 ppg on .504 field goal shooting. Gilgeous-Alexander is bigger and more athletic than Brunson, so to say that the Pacers have their hands full is a massive understatement.

Most championship teams have an All-Star one-two punch. Jalen Williams, who turned 24 two months ago, earned his first All-Star selection in 2025, averaging 21.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.1 apg to set new career highs in all three categories. He has maintained similar production in the playoffs (20.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg). Williams is not as consistent or as dominant as Gilgeous-Alexander, but when Williams is scoring efficiently the Thunder are almost impossible to beat.

Lu Dort looks like a linebacker masquerading as an NBA defensive stopper. Despite averaging a modest 10.1 ppg during the regular season (seventh on the team) he ranked third in minutes played per game because he is the quintessential "3 and D" wing. Dort shot a career-high .412 from three point range this season, but he has slumped to .304 during the playoffs.

The Thunder could be bullied in the paint in the 2023-24 season, but that ended after the summer 2024 acquisition of 7-0, 255 pound center Isaiah Hartenstein, who averaged 11.2 ppg and a team-high 10.7 rpg during the regular season and 9.2 ppg plus 7.9 rpg during the playoffs.

Chet Holmgren is slender but he is not afraid to play in the paint, as demonstrated by his 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and team-high 2.2 bpg during the regular season. In the playoffs, he is averaging 16.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 2.0 bpg. 

Alex Caruso's modest boxscore numbers do not indicate his huge impact on team success. He can provide full court pressure defense against point guards, and he can guard Nikola Jokic in the post (at least for brief stretches). Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, and Cason Wallace are each averaging at least 1 spg during the playoffs after also accomplishing that feat during the regular season; any dribble or pass in their vicinity is apt to be transformed into a Thunder fast break dunk or three pointer.

Other things to consider: The Pacers are a very good team that is peaking at the right time--but the Thunder are a historically great team led by a player who has a chance to be considered historically great. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 26 years old and already has won a regular season MVP while earning three All-NBA First Team selections. Tracy McGrady, Gary Payton, Dwyane Wade, and Russell Westbrook each received two All-NBA First Team selections in their entire careers, and McGrady, Payton, and Wade never won a regular season MVP. Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, and Isiah Thomas each made the All-NBA First Team three times, with Iverson winning one regular season MVP, Nash winning two regular season MVPs, and Thomas winning one Finals MVP. One more All-NBA First Team selection moves Gilgeous-Alexander into a tie with Stephen Curry, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul. If Gilgeous-Alexander wins the Finals MVP then he and Curry would be the only players in that cohort of guards who have a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP, and at least three All-NBA First Team selections. The list of guards who made the All-NBA First Team at least five times includes Kobe Bryant (11), Bob Cousy (10), Jerry West (10), Michael Jordan (10), Oscar Robertson (9), Magic Johnson (8), James Harden (6), George Gervin (5), Jason Kidd (5), and Luka Doncic (5).

Young superstars often have to learn how to share the ball and how to empower their less talented teammates, but Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be an excellent leader who enjoys a great rapport with his teammates. Whenever he is interviewed after a nationally televised game, he includes all of his teammates; with some other stars, that might come across as fake, but when Gilgeous-Alexander does it the love and respect seem to be genuine--and that connectivity is reflected in the way that the Thunder play at both ends of the court. 

The Pacers have enjoyed a remarkable playoff run, but the Thunder are clearly the better team. I predict that Oklahoma City will win in five games.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:01 PM

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Pacers Run Past Knicks to Advance to the NBA Finals

In a series during which the Indiana Pacers tried to play fast while the New York Knicks tried to slow the game down, Indiana ran past New York 125-108 to claim a 4-2 victory and earn a trip to the NBA Finals to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. After New York's rousing game five win, it may have been tempting to assume that the momentum in the series had shifted--but even though in game momentum exists, game to game momentum is difficult to generate: the next game starts 0-0 with different referees in front of a different crowd under different conditions in terms of injuries, foul trouble, and other factors. Thus, in my recap of New York's game five win, I concluded, "The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win." The Pacers won game six by playing harder, but the first half was tightly contested, with neither team leading by more than six points; the Pacers led just 58-54 at halftime before using relentless defensive pressure and blistering 7-13 (.538) three point shooting to break the game open in the third quarter: the Pacers went on a 9-0 run in the first 1:58 of the third quarter and led by double digits for most of the second half. Pascal Siakam (10 points) and Thomas Bryant (eight points) led Indiana's third quarter charge.

Siakam scored a game-high 31 points on 10-18 field goal shooting. Tyrese Haliburton bounced back from a subpar game five with 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting along with a game-high 13 assists, six rebounds, and three steals; he had four turnovers after not committing a turnover in games four and five, but a four turnover game punctuated by aggressiveness and decisiveness is better than a passive zero turnover game such as his desultory game five: productivity and activity often matter more than so-called "efficiency." Obi Toppin contributed 18 points and six rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench. Andrew Nembhard had 14 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high six steals as he spearheaded a great team defensive effort that produced 34 points off of turnovers. Bryant finished with 11 points in just 13 minutes.

OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 24 points. Karl-Anthony Towns added 22 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, but he shot just 8-19 from the field. Mikal Bridges scored 15 points but had a game-high tying five turnovers. Jalen Brunson was the leading scorer in the series (30.7 ppg), but in game six he had a series-low 19 points on 8-18 field goal shooting while committing a game-high tying five turnovers; the Pacers' pressure defense wore him down in this game specifically, and in the series in general after he scored 43 points on 15-25 field goal shooting in New York's deflating game one loss; even though the Knicks won two games in this series, it is fair to say that they never recovered from blowing a 14 point lead in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter of game one before losing in overtime; these teams proved to be evenly matched--separated by just 11 points over six games--and thus giving away game one was a fatal blow. 

Tyrese Haliburton is the engine for the Pacers' attack, but--to mix metaphors--Pascal Siakam is the barometer: the Pacers won each of the three games in this series when Siakam scored at least 30 points--including his playoff career-high 39 point outburst in game two--and they went 1-2 in the three games when he scored 17 points or less. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Siakam averaged a team-high 24.8 ppg with shooting splits of .524/.500/.674 while ranking second on the team in rebounding (5.0 rpg), tied for second in assists (3.5 apg), third in steals (1.3 spg), and third in three point field goals made (10) as the Pacers made more three pointers than the Knicks (73-62) with a better three point shooting percentage (.390-.332). Siakam received the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; previous award winners include Jayson Tatum (2022), Jimmy Butler (2023), and Jaylen Brown (2024).

When the Pacers started the season 10-15, it is doubtful that anyone outside of their locker room envisioned not only a return trip to the Eastern Conference Finals but reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years and just the second time in franchise history (the Pacers won three ABA titles--1970, 1972-73--and played in the ABA Finals five times). Coach Rick Carlisle, who led the underdog Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 NBA title, did a masterful job of not only getting the Pacers back on track in the regular season but also navigating through upsets of two favored teams (the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks) in the playoffs. Carlisle will be making his second NBA Finals appearance as a coach after guiding teams to the Eastern Conference Finals four times (Detroit in 2003; Indiana in 2004, 2024-25) and to the Western Conference Finals one time (Dallas in 2011). The Pacers face a daunting challenge against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but that will be the subject of another article.

This game marked the end of an era in not just sports history but television history: the final episode of TNT's "Inside the NBA" aired. Although the famous studio crew of Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O'Neal will still be together in some format next season on ABC/ESPN, there is a strong sense that things will not be quite the same as they were when TNT did pregame shows, game telecasts, and postgame shows. ABC/ESPN has not done a great job with its NBA coverage--to put it mildly--and there are justifiable fears that they will figure out some way to mess up a quartet that they tried unsuccessfully to match for a long time. The TNT foursome found the right mixture of humor combined with insightful analysis, and they made it look a lot easier than it is (as ABC/ESPN has proven, in a negative way). In "Going Inside," the behind the scenes show about TNT's last season covering the NBA, Johnson noted that in this life filled with uncertainties there are only three things that we can control: 

1) Our attitude

2) How hard we work

3) How we treat people

Those words of wisdom provide a glimpse into how special Johnson is as a person, not just as a broadcaster.

The NBA on TNT will be missed, and it will never be forgotten by NBA fans.

Labels: Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 AM

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Knicks Slow Down Pacers, 111-94

The New York Knicks jumped out to a 10-3 lead, never trailed, and held the Indiana Pacers to their lowest point total of the 2025 playoffs in a 111-94 game five win. The Knicks saved their season just two days after the Pacers scored 130 points at home in their game four victory, the Pacers' second highest scoring total in the 2025 playoffs, trailing only their 138 points in their game one overtime win versus the Knicks. The series shifts back to Indianapolis on Saturday night with the Pacers having a second opportunity to eliminate the Knicks and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000--but if the Knicks win again then game seven will be played in New York on Monday night. In game five, the Knicks limited the Pacers to 16 fast break points after allowing 22 in game five, they outrebounded the Pacers 45-40, they outscored the Pacers 60-34 in the paint, and they committed 15 turnovers while forcing 19 turnovers.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 32 points on 12-18 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high tying five assists and grabbing five rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points plus a game-high 13 rebounds. Towns shot 10-20 from the field, and he aggressively attacked in the paint instead of settling for three pointers. Brunson and Towns are the first teammates to each score at least 20 points in the first five games of a Conference Finals series since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant accomplished that feat in the 2002 Western Conference Finals. Brunson and Towns are defensive liabilities at times, but that was not the case in this game, as indicated by their plus/minus numbers (+18 and +26 respectively). Mikal Bridges scored 12 points and had a team-high tying five assists. Josh Hart came off of the bench but still played 34 productive minutes (12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists). 

Bennedict Mathurin led the Pacers with 23 points and nine rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench, but the Pacers' starters scored just 37 points on 13-39 (.333) field goal shooting. Pascal Siakam, who had 15 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, was the only starter who scored more than eight points. Tyrese Haliburton, who had a historic triple double in game four, notched a game-high six assists and had no turnovers for the second consecutive game, but he scored just eight points on 2-7 field goal shooting; he is the engine that drives the Pacers' high octane offensive attack, but that engine was stuck in neutral for most of game five as the Knicks pressured Haliburton all over the court.

The Knicks led 86-64 with 2:12 left in the third quarter, but the Pacers cut the margin to 96-84 on a Jarace Walker three pointer at the 8:15 mark of the fourth quarter. The Pacers won game one in overtime despite trailing by 14 points with 2:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, but this time the Knicks responded with a 6-0 run and led by at least 14 points the rest of the way.

Many playoff games inspire dramatic overreactions punctuated by phrases such as "Team X made a big adjustment," or "Team X really found something that changed the momentum of the series." During the 2013 NBA Finals, 11-time NBA champion Bill Russell sagely noted, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make." An adjustment will only work if it is something that a team has previously practiced and is thus mentally/physically prepared to execute; contrary to widely disseminated narratives, teams are not coming up with entirely new game plans on the fly. When Jeff Van Gundy was an analyst for ABC/ESPN, he consistently refuted the notion that in-game adjustments decide the outcomes of playoff series and he emphasized that "play harder" is the best "adjustment" that a team can make. 

After game five, Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle repeatedly mentioned that his team did not play with enough energy and force, and New York Coach Tom Thibodeau dismissed the notion that he had made any significant offensive or defensive adjustments.

The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 PM

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Thunder Muzzle Wolves to Advance to the NBA Finals for the First Time Since 2012

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves 26-9 in the first quarter and built a 39 point second half lead en route to a 124-94 win to clinch the Western Conference Finals, 4-1. The Thunder received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship after shooting 46-88 (.523) from the field while limiting the Timberwolves to 35-85 (.412) field goal shooting. The Thunder also outrebounded the Timberwolves 46-39. The official fast break numbers were 19-11 in favor of the Thunder, but it seemed like the Thunder had an even more substantial edge in that category. At times, it looked like the Thunder were playing six on five as they had 14 steals and converted 21 turnovers into 18 points; at halftime, the Timberwolves had 14 turnovers and 12 field goals made, a rare team "Harden" (more turnovers than field goals made). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 14-25 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He was one of five Thunder players who had plus/minus numbers of at least +21. The Thunder's first quarter domination was largely a product of Gilgeous-Alexander's high level scoring and playmaking, as he scored or assisted on 24 first quarter points: he scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he had three assists to Chet Holmgren (one three pointer, two dunks), one assist to Isaiah Hartenstein (dunk), and one assist to Cason Wallace for a three pointer just before the buzzer. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 5.2 rpg during the series with shooting splits of .457/.318/.863 to earn the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), and Luka Doncic (2024). 

In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's individual brilliance, the Thunder are distinguished by their unrelenting defensive pressure, the athleticism throughout their roster, and their overall depth. Holmgren had 22 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high tying three blocked shots. Jalen Williams played a solid all-around game (19 points, game-high eight rebounds, five assists). Lu Dort scored 12 points and had his usual tremendous impact defensively, Isaiah Joe led the bench brigade with 11 points, and Alex Caruso was a menace on defense with a game-high four steals plus numerous deflections and general disruptiveness. The offseason additions of Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (eight points, five rebounds, two blocked shots in 17 minutes) helped the Thunder improve from being a very good team to being a dominant team.

The Timberwolves looked overwhelmed and frustrated. Anthony Edwards insists that he does not want to be the face of the NBA, and perhaps he should not be considered for that subjective title after scoring just 19 points on 7-18 field goal shooting with a game-worst -29 plus/minus number. He averaged 23.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg during the series with shooting splits of .471/.282/.688. Edwards had two 30 point games during this series, and the Timberwolves went 1-1 in those contests, but he also had three games with less than 20 points, all three of which the Timberwolves lost. 

In the postgame press conference after game five, Edwards scoffed at the notion that being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals in five games for the second year in a row should hurt: "I don't know why people would think it would hurt. It's exciting for me. I'm 23. I get to do it a whole bunch of times. I'm hurt more so for [teammate] Mike [Conley]. I came up short for Mike. We tried last year, we couldn't get it. We tried again this year. We'll try again next year. But hurt is a terrible word to use. I'm good." Edwards should be careful about asserting that he will reach the Western Conference Finals "a whole bunch of times"; nothing is promised, and a lot can change for players and teams in a short period of time. Perhaps a mental health professional would say that Edwards has a mature response to losing, but I would argue that Edwards' attitude is not what one would expect from a champion or a potential champion. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant agonized after every season when they failed to win a title; again, maybe that is not the healthiest approach or the approach that a "normal" person might have, but perhaps champions are not "normal." There is a difference between winners and champions. Just making it to the NBA means that you are a winner--but very few NBA players become champions, and even fewer become the best player on a championship team. To become a champion, you have to feel at least a little hurt when you fall short. Maybe Edwards feels hurt but is too prideful to admit that publicly. By no means am I suggesting that he is not capable of leading a team to a title; he is too talented to write off at this early stage of his career. However, there are reasons to wonder about him based on how he plays and some of the things that he says. Edwards has had some great playoff performances, but he has also been outplayed by the other team's star in back to back Western Conference Finals, and those stars are young--Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--so Edwards will have to figure out how to beat his peers to win a championship; he is not in position to just inherit the top spot from older stars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.

Julius Randle had 24 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and three assists. Naz Reid added 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high tying three blocked shots in 24 minutes off of the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 11 points in 16 minutes off of the bench, and after the game Coach Chris Finch conceded that next season he may lengthen the rotation to give his young bench players more opportunities to contribute. 

The Timberwolves are a very good team, but not quite good enough to win a championship. It is interesting to note that their roster was built by Tim Connelly to beat the Denver Nuggets, whose roster Connelly built before coming to Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in the 2024 NBA playoffs, but this year the Timberwolves faced a Thunder team that eliminated the Nuggets, so it appears that Connelly may have to tweak his roster to deal with the Thunder's speed and defensive pressure, in contrast to the size and physicality that he assembled to attack Denver's big frontcourt.

The Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when their young Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden trio lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Thunder look like a team that could be a contender for several years, but the 2012 Thunder represent a cautionary tale (and a tale that should be heeded by Edwards as well): that group never reached the NBA Finals again, with Harden fleeing for Houston after the 2012 NBA Finals run and then Durant joining Golden State's powerhouse team in 2016.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

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Pacers Outrun Knicks, Take 3-1 Lead in Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers hit the New York Knicks with a 43 point first quarter, and may have delivered a knockout blow with a 130-121 game four win to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals; teams that lead a best of seven NBA playoff series 3-1 win the series more than 95% of the time. The Knicks outrebounded the Pacers 44-33, but the Pacers forced 17 turnovers while only committing 11 turnovers, and the Pacers scored 20 points off of turnovers while giving up just nine points off of turnovers. The Pacers outscored the Knicks 50-44 in the paint, and 22-9 on fast breaks. The Pacers shot 45-88 (.511) from the field, including 13-32 (.406) from three point range, and they held the Knicks to 38-82 (.463) field goal shooting, including 12-28 (.429) from three point range. 

Tyrese Haliburton authored a virtuoso, MVP level performance, posting game-high totals in scoring (32 points), rebounding (12 rebounds), and assists (15) while not committing a turnover in 38 minutes of high usage playing time. The NBA officially began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season; since that time, no player had accumulated at least 30 points, at least 15 assists, and at least 10 assists without a turnover in a playoff game until Haliburton accomplished that feat last night; the only other players who posted 30-15-10 lines in playoff games are Oscar Robertson and Nikola Jokic. In my Eastern Conference Finals series preview, I compared Haliburton's scoring and assist numbers to those posted by a young Magic Johnson--and then I still picked New York to win the series; perhaps I should have trusted my instincts/analysis about how special Haliburton is. Young Magic was a better rebounder than Haliburton but not as good of a three point shooter. In each of his first four playoff campaigns, Magic averaged between 17.0 ppg and 18.2 ppg and between 7.0 apg and 13.5 apg; this is just Haliburton's second playoff campaign, but he is averaging 19.4 ppg and a league-high 9.8 apg in the 2025 playoffs after averaging 18.7 ppg and 8.2 apg in the 2024 playoffs. During Magic's rookie season, he teamed up with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar--who is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title. Haliburton does not have the good fortune of playing with a dominant player like Abdul-Jabbar, but Haliburton is getting the most out of his current roster.

Pascal Siakam is the Pacers' security blanket. He is not flashy and he does not get as many touches as his talent seems to warrant, but when he has the ball he goes to work. His 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting nicely complemented Haliburton's triple double. Aaron Nesmith was listed as questionable before the game because of the sprained ankle he suffered in game three, but he scored 16 points, played tough defense, and posted a game-high +20 plus/minus number. Bennedict Mathurin poured in 20 points in just 12 minutes off of the bench. Myles Turner added 13 points, three rebounds, and three blocked shots before fouling out. Obi Toppin scored just five points, but he probably took special delight in draining a three pointer with 46.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to put the Pacers up 126-116, which not only sealed the game but most likely sealed his former team's fate in the series.  

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 31 points and five assists, but his -16 plus/minus number reflects how badly the Knicks hemorrhaged points when he was in the game; that is not entirely his fault, but part of the problem is that he can be successfully targeted defensively. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds; he and Coach Tom Thibodeau seem to be doomed to always be the whipping boys for the Knicks' real and perceived failures, but Towns was the only New York starter with a positive plus/minus number (+3). Yes, Towns committed some dumb fouls and he jacked up too many three pointers, but the Knicks did not lose this game during his minutes. OG Anubody scored 22 points and had a -1 plus/minus number. 

This game provided another example of how often the NBA is a first quarter league: Haliburton had 15 points and six assists in the first quarter as the Pacers scored 43 points on 15-22 (.682) field goal shooting, and even though those numbers were not sustainable for the rest of the game they provided a look at the matchup advantages that the Pacers would continue to exploit: the Pacers are at their best when they play an uptempo game, and they are able to play an uptempo game when they minimize their turnovers and when they push the ball quickly up the court after a make or a miss. The Knicks scored 35 points in the first quarter but just could not keep up with the frenetic Pacers, and that continued to be the case throughout the game. The Knicks led 2-0 and 5-3 but trailed for most of the game, including the entire second half. The Pacers deserve full credit for the many things that they did well, but it must be said that the Knicks suffered self-inflicted wounds as a result of sloppy ballhandling, bad fouls, missed defensive rotations, and questionable shot selection. 

This game marked the first time in this series that the home team won a game. With a win in New York on Thursday, the Pacers can close out the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.

Labels: Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 7:14 PM

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Thunder's Stars Outshine Timberwolves' Stars in Tightly Contested Game Four

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff career-high 40 points and Jalen William added a playoff career-high 34 points as the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-126 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Sports in general are very strategic, and basketball in particular is a game in which the smart take from the strong, but sometimes the game is simple: a team whose stars dominate has a great chance to win. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder's third option, scored as many points (21) as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (16) and Julius Randle (five) combined.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a game-high 10 assists, and a game-high tying nine rebounds. He did not shoot very efficiently (13-30, .433) and he had a game-high tying five turnovers, but--as we saw with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--a team's best player has the responsibility to take a lot of shots because he will not only score but he will also attract defensive attention (only called "gravity" when Stephen Curry does it) that opens up opportunities for his teammates. One of the most impressive obscure statistics in pro basketball history is that Michael Jordan scored at least 20 points in 35 consecutive NBA Finals games. Jordan regularly faced double teams and triple teams, and he learned to pass the ball when necessary--but he always understood his responsibility to put up big scoring totals in every game, particularly in playoff games and NBA Finals games. Julius Erving scored at least 20 points in 26 straight Finals games (his last seven in the ABA and his first 19 in the NBA), and he scored at least 20 points in 31 of his 33 Finals games overall (10/11 in the ABA, 21/22 in the NBA). Jerry West ranks third with 25 straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Timberwolves with 23 points, Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo added 21 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 13 points plus a game-high tying nine rebounds, but the problem is not just that Edwards only had 16 points in a de facto elimination game; the problem is that Edwards shot 5-13 from the field--and the low number of field goal attempts is at least as concerning as the poor field goal percentage, for the reason mentioned above: a team's best player must force the action at times. It sounds great to talk about "making the right play," but often the right play is attacking the opposing defense until it breaks; passively accepting a double team and then making a pass that does not threaten the defense is not "the right play," nor is it a winning play. Edwards and Randle each committed five turnovers, and Randle shot just 1-7 from the field; those numbers do not point to making the right play: they point to being tentative, indecisive, and careless with the ball. 

After Minnesota won game three 143-101 a lot was said about a momentum shift in this series. How much momentum carried over into game four? None. Momentum is something that talking heads mention in lieu of analyzing basketball strategy and matchups. In game three, Minnesota was the more aggressive team at both ends of the court, while Oklahoma City looked like a team that had relaxed after taking a 2-0 series lead. In contrast, the Thunder led 37-30 at the end of the first quarter of game four, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as they scored in the first 24 minutes of game three (41)--and the stars led the way, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scoring 13 first quarter points each. The Timberwolves briefly led in the first quarter, but never by more than two points, and they did not lead at all in the final three quarters; the game remained close throughout--the Thunder's largest lead was only 11 points--but the outcome was never in serious doubt, because a team whose stars play passively throughout the game is not often rewarded with a win by the basketball gods.

Opposing fans call Gilgeous-Alexander a "foul merchant," which is an odd phrase. Is he being accused of selling fouls or buying fouls? Gilgeous-Alexander is not James Harden flopping and flailing while looking for bailout calls. Gilgeous-Alexander is aggressive, which all great offensive players are--and aggressive players draw fouls, which not only leads to free throws but also puts the opposing team in foul trouble. Edwards and Randle would be well-advised to match that level of aggressiveness to have any chance of extending this series beyond game five in Oklahoma City.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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