20 Second Timeout

LeBron Dominates in Second Half as Lakers Take 3-1 Lead

When LeBron James is focused and attacks the hoop, he is still the best player in the NBA. He showed that again in the second half of game four of the NBA Finals, powering the L.A. Lakers to a 102-96 victory over the Miami Heat and a 3-1 series lead. James had 20 points and nine rebounds in the second half, including 11 points and five rebounds in the fourth quarter. With James setting the tone, the Lakers pounded the smaller Heat in the fourth quarter, shooting 5-6 on two pointers and 11-12 on free throws. James led both teams in scoring (28 points) and rebounds (12) while shooting 8-16 from the field and dishing for a team-high eight assists. James had a -2 plus/minus number, but this game is an example of why plus/minus can be deceptive in a small sample size; James was without question the best player on the court when it mattered most, and he took over as the Lakers built a 100-91 lead after a Jimmy Butler drive tied the score at 83.

James had five turnovers in the first half, but just one turnover in the second half. James was out of sync during the first half. Anyone could see it, and ABC's Jeff Van Gundy mentioned it during the telecast. If James had not lifted his game, this series would likely be 2-2 now--but James played up to his potential, and the Lakers are one win away from capturing the NBA title. 

Anthony Davis also had a subpar first half by his standards (eight points, though he did have six rebounds and three assists) but he scored 14 second half points, including the three pointer that put the Lakers up 100-91 with :39.5 remaining, a shot that most likely not only clinched this game but the series as well; only one team has won the NBA Finals after trailing 3-1, and that team featured James (the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, who defeated the Golden State Warriors). Davis finished with 22 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and four blocked shots. He shot 8-16 from the field, and had a game-high +17 plus/minus number. 

The Lakers received key contributions from their role players. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope paced the Lakers in scoring during the first half (10 points) as they led 49-47 at halftime. He ended up with 15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, plus five assists. He hit a three pointer and a driving layup on consecutive fourth quarter possessions to push the Lakers' lead to 95-88. Danny Green added 10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting. Rajon Rondo only scored two points on 1-7 field goal shooting but he was third on the team in rebounds (seven) and tied with Caldwell-Pope for second in assists (five). 

Jimmy Butler played well, but the Heat needed for him to be great. Butler led the Heat in scoring (22 points), rebounds (10), and assists (nine), but he has an odd tendency to turn down open shots in the paint and pass to his teammates. Unselfishness is fine to a point, but sometimes the best player has an obligation to force the action, which can not only lead to scores but also induce the defense to "tilt" in a way that creates easier shots for that player's teammates.  

The Heat received a lift from the return of injured starting center Bam Adebayo. He scored 15 points and had seven rebounds. Adebayo played with high energy and posted a +3 plus/minus number but he did not have the overall impact that he did during the Eastern Conference Finals. Early in the game, the Heat played very actively, forcing turnovers and making it hard for the Lakers to feed the ball to Davis in the post.

Tyler Herro (21 points) and Duncan Robinson (17 points) were the Heat's only other double figure scorers, but they probably gave up at least as many points on defense as they scored on offense; the Lakers were openly "hunting" to create switches involving either guard down the stretch. Even though the injured Goran Dragic was the Heat's leading playoff scorer heading into this series, the team may miss his defense even more than his offense. 

Neither team led by more than seven points until Davis hit the clinching three pointer, but once James decided to attack the hoop it was a wrap. James scored on a drive, was fouled, and made the free throw to put the Lakers up 86-83 with 6:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. James scored the Lakers' next four points on free throws, and when the defense crowded him on a drive he dished to Caldwell-Pope for a right corner three pointer at the 2:58 mark that extended the Lakers' lead to 93-88. The Lakers' half court set that involves James wandering around aimlessly without the ball behind the three point line is puzzling to watch, but when James drives to score (and passes only if a second defender blocks his path) he becomes almost impossible to stop.

Is James held to an unreasonably high standard, or is it appropriate to expect him to drive to the hoop more often because he is an unstoppable force in the paint? I think that all players should maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Driving to the hoop requires physical, mental, and emotional stamina, but there is no shortcut to achieving and sustaining greatness. Every jump shot that James shoots--particularly jump shots from further than 15-18 feet--is a victory for the defense, even if James connects; every James drive bends, distorts, and ultimately destroys the defense.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Rajon Rondo

posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 AM

11 comments

Davis and James Dominate as Lakers Take 2-0 Lead

Game two of the NBA Finals looked like a five on five version of an older, bigger brother dominating his younger, smaller brother in a backyard or a driveway. Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined for 65 points and 23 rebounds as the L.A. Lakers won 124-114 over the Miami Heat to take a 2-0 lead. The Lakers outrebounded the Heat 44-37, and the Lakers grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. The Lakers shot .505 from the field overall, including .660 on two point field goals--and most of those two point field goals were attempted in the paint as the Lakers shredded the Heat's zone defense. The Lakers scored nearly every time that they attacked the middle of the zone or crept in on the baseline, causing the Heat to collapse their defense in the paint and resulting in the Lakers setting a Finals single game record by attempting 47 three pointers. Unlike the Houston Rockets, the Lakers set up their three pointers by attacking the paint, as opposed to just jacking up long range shots regardless of what the defense is doing.

Davis finished with 32 points and 14 rebounds while shooting 15-20 from the field; he had eight offensive rebounds, and he made 14 of his first 16 field goal attempts. Davis is the fifth player to score at least 30 points in each of his first two NBA Finals games, joining Hal Greer (1967), Rick Barry (1967), Michael Jordan (1991), and Kevin Durant (2012). James had 32 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, and no turnovers; he shot 14-25 from the field.

While Davis and James led the way, the contributions of the Lakers' other two likely future Hall of Famers should not be overlooked. Rajon Rondo scored 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and he led the Lakers with 10 assists. Dwight Howard started at center, and he set the tone early with six quick points in the paint on 3-3 field goal shooting.

The Heat were without the services of two starters: All-Star center Bam Adebayo, and former All-Star guard Goran Dragic. ABC commentators Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson correctly pointed out moments and situations when the Heat could have played harder or hustled more--and Udonis Haslem delivered that message with great emphasis during a third quarter timeout--but the brutal reality is that size combined with talent/athleticism can wear a team down not only physically but also mentally. ESPN's Richard Jefferson suggested that the Heat played hard enough and well enough that they likely would have won if Adebayo had been available; the Heat just did not have enough size or enough depth to contend with the Lakers.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 25 points and 13 assists. He also had eight rebounds while playing 45 minutes. He matched James play for play, and the only criticism that one could make is that perhaps Butler should have looked for his shot more often as opposed to driving with the intent to pass--but Butler has never been a 30 ppg scorer or a player who regularly explodes for 40 or 50 points, so it is not in his nature to play that way. Butler's ability to lift his teammates to another level is very evident, and explains why his previous teams improved when he arrived only to regress after he left. We are learning a lot not only about Butler, but also about his previous teammates who he criticized and/or who criticized him: I would take Butler all day any day over any of those guys, even though several of them are bigger and/or more athletically gifted. As Mike Singletary once said, "I want winners."

Prior to the game, ESPN's Rachel Nichols asked Butler how his ankle--which he injured in game one--feels, and he replied, "Nobody cares." Butler refused to make excuses or change his expectations for team success. After the game, Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra delivered a similar message, stating that in life if you want something badly enough then you figure out what you have to do to get it. There are players who will say that they do not make excuses, but then those same players will tell you in detail about their injuries; LeBron James has done that throughout his career, dating all the way back to his mysterious elbow injury that did not stop him from shooting half court shots during pre-game warmups in the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals.

Kelly Olynyk filled in admirably for Adebayo, coming off the bench to score 24 points and snare nine rebounds in 37 minutes. Tyler Herro bounced back from a subpar game one to score 17 points and grab seven rebounds. The Heat dusted off rookie Kendrick Nunn--a major contributor during the regular season who fell out of the playoff rotation prior to Dragic's injury--and he added 13 points. However, the Heat just do not have enough talent or depth to beat the Lakers without Adebayo and Dragic.

The Lakers attacked the paint from the start of the game, and the Heat had no answers. The Lakers led by as much as 17 points in the first half, and they were up 68-54 at halftime. The Lakers shot .565 from the field in the first half, including 17-20 (.850) on two point shots. Those shooting percentages look like Bill Walton's in the 1973 NCAA Championship Game or Villanova's in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, not like anything one would expect to see in the NBA Finals. In the first half the Lakers also set the Finals record for most three pointers attempted in a half (27). Most Lakers' possessions ended with Davis or James playing bully ball in the paint, or someone attempting a wide open three pointer.

The Lakers maintained a double digit lead for most of the second half, though the Heat cut the margin to 100-91 late in the third quarter after Herro sank a pair of free throws. This game was more competitive than game one but at no time did the outcome of the game appear to be in doubt. 

If Adebayo can return for game three and supply paint presence at both ends of the court, then perhaps the Heat still have a chance to make this a series. Otherwise, the Lakers will cruise to a sweep and the only question will be whether the media select Davis or James as the Finals MVP.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Jimmy Butler, Kelly Olynyk, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Rajon Rondo, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM

7 comments

Shaky Starts for Lakers and Rockets Punctuated by Saturday Night Fight

The Houston Rockets and L.A. Lakers have both started the 2019 season in less than impressive fashion. The Rockets are 1-2 and their only win is against the 0-3 Lakers. The Rockets have a mediocre offense so far, ranking 17th out of 30 teams in scoring, 15th in field goal percentage and 18th in assists. They are awful defensively, ranking 27th in defensive field goal percentage and 24th in rebounding. James Harden will always put up gaudy individual regular season numbers playing for a team that is built around him monopolizing the ball--28.3 ppg, 9.7 apg, 6.7 rpg so far--but the Rockets have been outscored by 7 ppg during his time on the court while outscoring their opponents by 3 ppg when Harden is on the bench.

The Lakers are giving up 131.7 ppg (!), which amazingly is not the worst figure in the league; the Lakers rank 23rd in points allowed. The Lakers are shooting .287 from three point range (28th), which means that LeBron James is often operating in a crowd because opposing defenses can afford to sag into the paint. The reflexive response would be to blame James' "supporting cast" for the Lakers' perfectly imperfect record but the Lakers are being outscored by more than 7 ppg while James is on the court and the Lakers are holding their own when James is on the bench.

When the two teams met on Saturday night, it very much looked like the resistible force meeting the movable object. It was not clear which team would fold in the end when, with 4:13 left in the fourth quarter and the Rockets clinging to a 109-108 lead, the train went completely off the rails. Brandon Ingram was called for a foul after Harden pushed off during a drive (unless you believe that extending your arms horizontally--as opposed to upward--is a natural shooting motion for a layup). Harden whined for a continuation call, Chris Paul chimed in as well and Ingram shoved Harden out of the way while complaining to the referee about the call. At that point, it looked like Harden would be living at the free throw line because of the shooting foul plus the technical foul on Ingram. While everything was being sorted out, Paul and Rajon Rondo got involved in a heated conversation. Suddenly, Paul stuck his finger in Rondo's face (leaving a scratch underneath Rondo's eye) and Rondo responded by throwing punches. Paul threw punches as well before his good buddy James pulled him away to safety. Meanwhile, Ingram rushed into the fray and threw a punch as well.

Paul ran to the broadcast table to get his story out first, claiming that Rondo had spit on him. While James walked alongside Paul with his arm draped over Paul's shoulder, the other Lakers tried to calm Ingram down. Ingram, Rondo and Paul were each ejected. The NBA subsequently suspended Ingram for four games, Rondo for three games and Paul for two games. Houston Coach Mike D'Antoni immediately complained because the suspensions (and resulting forfeited game checks) will cost Paul far more money than the other guys will lose (due to Paul's bloated contract). Here is a thought: maybe the President of the Players Association who makes $40 million per year should have considered what he stood to lose before he stuck his finger in Rondo's face.

It is well established that the Rockets are fake tough guys, something that I addressed last season in an article titled The Rockets' Fake Toughness:

Real toughness in the NBA is displayed by playing defense, focusing on the game plan and executing in the playoffs...Fake toughness in the NBA is displayed by acting like you want to get in a fistfight, knowing full well that there is an armada of security guards and police officers at every NBA arena. Years back, Tim Thomas--speaking about Kenyon Martin--had the perfect term for these kind of antics: "fugazi," meaning "fake."

I am pretty sure that Paul assumed that he could get his finger poke in for free before he and Rondo would be quickly separated. Paul did not count on Rondo unloading a two piece on his dome.

Paul's new teammate Carmelo Anthony, a member of the NBA's All-Fake Tough Guy First Team, called Rondo's conduct "unacceptable." Anthony is well versed in "unacceptable" conduct; in  2006, then-Denver Nugget Anthony was one of the principals in an ugly melee in Madison Square Garden. Anthony sucker-punched the Knicks' Mardy Collins and then back-pedaled like he was on ice skates--managing to lose credibility both as a professional ball player who should know better than to throw a punch during a game and as a self-respecting man, for no self-respecting man would throw a sucker punch and then run away from the target of his anger. Fighting has no place in the NBA but if you are going to start a fight then be a man and stand your ground instead of running away like a scared little kid!

NBA Commissioner David Stern suspended seven players for a total of 47 games, with Anthony leading the way with a 15 game suspension (at the time this was the sixth longest suspension in NBA history). While Commissioner Adam Silver let Saturday night's instigators off relatively easily, Commissioner Stern imposed significant punishments and it is not a coincidence that the 2006 brawl was the last such on court melee until Paul, Rondo and Ingram lost their cool. It will be interesting to see if Silver's punishments will have the same kind of deterrent effect.

After the fight, ESPN showed clips of some of the previous interactions between Rondo and Paul. ESPN was making the point that there is a long history of animosity between these players but one thing that stood out immediately and dramatically is how much muscle mass Paul has added. The image of Paul flexing his biceps earlier in the game looks like a short version of the Incredible Hulk, while the young Paul looks like a scrawny kid. Throughout his career, Paul has been listed as 6-0, 175 pounds, but he is probably shorter than 6-0 and at this point he is clearly significantly heavier than 175 pounds. That kind of dramatic transformation brings to mind--among others--Evander Holyfield, who also went from about 175 pounds to well over 200 pounds of chiseled muscle during a period of time when illegal performance enhancing drugs were delivered to his residence. It is worth noting that as the President of the NBA Players Association, Paul has been a staunch opponent of testing for Human Growth Hormone (HGH), which is an odd position to take if one cares at all about (1) the long term health and safety of the players and (2) the integrity of the sport.

Another thing that struck me is that Paul does a whole lot of jawing for someone has not even made it to the NBA Finals, let alone won a championship. I vaguely recall a verbal exchange between two NHL players years ago and, if I am correct, I believe that the one player told the other that he could not even hear the nonsense that the other player was spouting because he had put all of his championship rings over his ears. Rondo could have saved himself a lot of money and had the ultimate "scoreboard" last word by saying something similar to Paul instead of punching Paul.

After the fight, Rondo kept his mouth shut publicly until the suspensions were handed down and then he offered his take: "Of course, the NBA went with his side because I got three games and he got two. Everyone wants to believe Chris Paul is a good guy. They don't know he's a horrible teammate. They don't know how he treats people. Look at what he did last year when he was in LA, trying to get to the Clippers locker room. They don't want to believe he's capable of taunting and igniting an incident. He comes out and says I spit and the media sides with that." Rondo added that he "had a mouthpiece in my mouth and I was exasperated because I was about to tell him to 'get the [expletive] out of here.' One, if I spit on you, bottom line, there is not going to be no finger-pointing. If you felt that I just spit on you, then all bets are off. Two, look at my body language. If I spit on you on purpose, I'm going to be ready for a man to swing on me. You ain't going to have my hands on my hip and my head look away at someone if I spit on them. After the [expletive] goes down, within 30 seconds, you run and tell the sideline reporters that I spit on you? If I spit on you, you are trying to get to me. You not trying to make up a story so you can look like a good guy. It makes no sense to me. I was going to let it rest. I wasn't going to say much. But now I have kids and I teach my kids to speak up for themselves and don't let the world tell their story."

The tape of the incident has been slowed down, placed into close up and replayed more often than the Zapruder film. If you freeze-frame it, squint and look from a certain angle, then maybe some spittle came out of Rondo's mouth, but if/when it did, Rondo was not even looking directly at Paul. Rondo should start a second career as a ventriloquist if he can intentionally spit on someone through a mouthpiece without even looking at the person! My take is that Paul did not like Rondo telling him to "Get the [expletive] out of here," Paul poked Rondo in the face while assuming that they would be separated and Paul did not realize that Rondo actually knows how to throw punches in combinations.

No one is covered in glory here. Ingram, a normally mild-mannered person by all accounts, lost his mind. I thought that he deserved to be suspended for at least five games; running into the fight and throwing a punch was a dangerous, bush league move. Paul and Rondo should have received the same punishment; two or three games makes sense, but I consider them equally culpable because they both threw punches. I suspect that Paul was the actual instigator but once they both threw punches they both needed to miss multiple games.

As for James, there is nothing wrong with him pulling Paul out of the fracas. You are always supposed to grab the guy from the other team, so your guy does not get punched in the face while he is being held. The problem is that after Paul was separated from the pack James should have gone over to his team and been with his guys. If I am a Laker, those pictures of James leisurely walking with his arm around Paul are not cool at all. In the old days, this would be resolved by James delivering a hard foul--not a cheap shot and not intended to injure--to Paul the next time these teams play, to demonstrate that his on court loyalties are not divided. The mainstream media narrative is that James and Paul are great leaders/teammates but the real world narrative is that coveted free agents are hardly clamoring to play with either guy.

The Rockets are not going to finish with a losing record and the Lakers will eventually win a game but both teams have some issues to address. The Carmelo Anthony experiment is turning out so far the only way that any sensible person would have expected: he is sixth on the team in scoring (8.3 ppg) while shooting .321 from the field and .200 from three point range. As usual, his defense is awful and apathetic. The Rockets are being outscored by 5 ppg while Anthony is on the court. "Olympic Melo" was always a myth for the most part and now, at best, it is a distant memory. Anthony is a ball-dominant isolation scorer who has lost his shooting touch and he is playing alongside two other ball-dominant players. Why in the world would anyone expect this to work?

James signed a long-term deal with the Lakers, which is supposedly a sign that he will be patient after he only signed short-term deals with Cleveland. Patience has never been James' strong suit, though, and another way to view his contract is that James is an aging player who is now locked in for big money until he will be a lot closer to 40 years old than 30. That was a financially smart move on his part and he has always been smart about using the substantial leverage he enjoys. If the Lakers keep losing, James will need a scapegoat, which means Coach Luke Walton will be on the hot seat and/or some players may be headed out the door. We all saw on Saturday night that James cares a lot more about how his good buddy Paul feels than about how Rondo, Ingram or his teammates feel. Just file that away for future reference if the Lakers do not show signs of progress by game 20 or so.

Labels: Brandon Ingram, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Houston Rockets, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Rajon Rondo

posted by David Friedman @ 10:12 PM

10 comments

Chicago Bulls Discipline Wade, Butler for Making Derogatory Comments About Teammates

After leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to Cleveland's first professional sports championship in over 50 years, LeBron James will probably be granted a lifetime pass by that city and that franchise to say/do whatever he wants; he recently made it clear that he believes that all of his teammates except Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are scrubs and that Cavaliers' owner Dan Gilbert is a cheapskate despite Gilbert spending over $150 million on salaries/luxury tax. James has received little to no backlash from the team in response to his intemperate remarks.

Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler just found out that they do not enjoy similar privileges with the Chicago Bulls.

Wade--who was a key member of three Miami championship teams before leaving the Heat to join the Bulls last summer--and three-time All-Star Butler--who is one of the top all-around players in the NBA--each blasted their teammates on Wednesday night after the Bulls fell apart down the stretch en route to a 119-114 loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Wade declared, "I'm 35 years old, man. I've got three championships. It shouldn't hurt me more than it hurts these young guys. They have to want it...It has to change. It has to hurt inside to lose games like this." Butler fumed, "(Expletive teammates) just got to care if we win or lose. At the end of the day, do whatever it takes to help the team win. You play your role to the T. Be a star in your role, man."

The Bulls fined both Wade and Butler and removed both players from the starting lineup in Friday's 100-88 loss to the Miami Heat. Bulls point guard Rajon Rondo--who started alongside Boston's fabled Big Three as the Celtics won the 2008 NBA title--was not disciplined for his public comments that unfavorably compared the leadership of Wade and Butler to the leadership of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, the two best players on Boston's championship team. Rondo posted this on Instagram, accompanied by a picture of Garnett and Pierce: "My vets would never go to the media. They would come to the team. My vets didn't pick and choose when they wanted to bring it. They brought it every time they stepped in the gym whether it was practice or a game. They didn't take days off. My vets didn't care about their numbers. My vets played for the team. When we lost, they wouldn't blame us. They took responsibility and got in the gym. They showed the young guys what it meant to work." Rondo emphasized that the only reason he went public with his thoughts is that he felt it was important that someone stick up for the team's young players.

Rondo's message is right on point. TNT's Kenny Smith had a great take on the situation as well, noting that it is cowardly for Wade and Butler to blast their teammates in the media as opposed to approaching them privately one on one. 

Wade has a mixed track record as a leader. After winning the 2006 NBA Finals MVP, Wade presided over one of the worst collapses ever experienced by a defending NBA champion, as the Bulls trampled the Heat by a record-setting margin during the Heat's championship ring night, serving as a prelude to the Heat's first round playoff loss in 2007 and 15-67 record in 2008. Later, Wade helped Pat Riley recruit LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join him in Miami to form a power trio that eventually won two titles while advancing to the NBA Finals for four straight years. Wade understood that James was the team's best player by far and Wade not only willingly ceded center stage to James but he implored James to live up to the responsibilities inherent in being the team's best player.

Perhaps Wade believes that his championship pedigree gives him the right to speak out against his teammates--but Rondo and Smith are right: Wade's words and actions in this case are not the words and actions of a true leader.

Butler has no track record as a leader. He clashed with the since-departed Derrick Rose--the 2011 NBA regular season MVP who once seemed to be a great player and a great leader but recently has not met the standard in either department--last season. Butler's emergence as an individual star during the past few seasons has not correlated with increased team success; this is not to suggest that the Bulls' struggles are Butler's fault but Butler has not yet proven that he has the skill set and temperament necessary to be the best player on a championship team. 

The Bulls are paying Wade and Butler a lot of money without receiving much in return, as the team is struggling to just hold on to the eighth playoff spot. The organization has to seriously reconsider how this roster has been constructed.

Labels: Chicago Bulls, Dwayne Wade, Jimmy Butler, LeBron James, Rajon Rondo

posted by David Friedman @ 7:54 PM

5 comments

Miami's Energetic Big Three Wears Down Boston's Old Big Three

In the famous "Rumble in the Jungle" fight, Muhammad Ali leaned against the ropes and absorbed body shots from George Foreman for several rounds before asking Foreman, "Is that all you got?" Ali took Foreman's heart with those words and soon after that he knocked Foreman out to regain the World Heavyweight Boxing Championship. The Boston Celtics wore themselves out landing body blows on the Miami Heat in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals--leading by as many as 11 points, maintaining a seven point halftime edge and staying in front as late as the eight minute mark of the fourth quarter--before the Heat figuratively asked, "Is that all you got?" and closed the game out with a 20-6 run to earn their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. In the "Rumble in the Jungle" the wily former champion outlasted the young, inexperienced champion but in the Boston-Miami matchup we saw the young challenger outlast a wily former champion seeking one final shot at the title. Miami fans who think that their team will have many chances to win a championship should keep in mind that in five years together Boston's Big Three plus Rajon Rondo quartet made it to the NBA Finals twice and won one championship; injuries, the rise of new contenders and other factors affect how many chances a team gets to win a title--and even a team with multiple future Hall of Famers is not immune to those challenges and twists of fate.

The Celtics executed the proper anti-Heat game plan for much of game seven, building a lead by limiting their turnovers, outscoring the Heat in the paint and preventing Miami from scoring in transition. Rondo authored his fourth triple double of this postseason and the 10th of his playoff career (22 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds) and each member of Boston's Big Three scored in double figures--19 points for Paul Pierce, 15 points for Ray Allen, 14 points for Kevin Garnett--but Boston's bench supplied just two points, forcing Boston's old warriors to shoulder a load that they no longer can carry. The Big Three looked like a boxer who had punched himself to exhaustion or a race car with an overheated engine: their fourth quarter shots came up short, they could not find the energy to pursue rebounds or loose balls and their defensive rotations were late. The 26 year old Rondo will obviously be the cornerstone of Boston's rebuilding project, since it seems unlikely that the Celtics will bring back the Big Three as a group. This was Rondo's second game seven triple double of the 2012 playoffs, a remarkable feat considering that no other player in NBA history has more than one game seven triple double in his entire career (Russell Westbrook, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy, Larry Bird and Jerry West are the only other players who have had a game seven triple double).

The return of Chris Bosh to full minutes (31) and full productivity (19 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) proved to be a decisive X factor in game seven; his timely shot making--including three three point field goals after shooting just 4-20 from behind the arc in his entire playoff career--not only provided crucial points but also spread Boston's defense thin, opening up driving lanes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. It is not a coincidence that the Heat are 7-2 in the 2012 playoffs with Bosh (including 2-1 versus Boston) and just 5-4 without him; foolish critics dubbed Miami's Big Three "Two and a Half Men"--not so subtly suggesting that Bosh is not nearly as important or productive as James and Wade--but intelligent basketball observers know that Bosh is hardly half a man from a basketball standpoint.

Wade got off to his customary slow start but finished with 23 points, six rebounds and six assists. Supposedly a knee injury is causing his inconsistent play but I have never heard of a knee injury that afflicts a player at the start of the game when he is loose and warmed up but then becomes better after the player sits around for 15 minutes at halftime; usually the concern with a knee injury is that the knee will become stiff if the player sits down for too long and/or that the injury will become aggravated the longer that he plays. I am not saying that Wade is not legitimately injured but just that it seems more likely that his inconsistent performances are being caused by something other than a knee injury.

The Celtics' legacy is set thanks to their 2008 championship, Wade's 2006 championship/Finals MVP means that he likely will never have to pay for a drink in Miami and few people perceive the playoffs as a referendum on Bosh's legacy; we all know that any elimination game for the Heat will be viewed and remembered first and foremost from the perspective of how it impacts James' legacy--at least until he wins a championship. James led the way with game-high totals in scoring (31 points) and rebounding (12). His shot was off (9-21 field goal shooting, .429) and he uncharacteristically only had two assists but for the most part he played the way he is supposed to play, the way that he should play all of the time: he attacked the basket instead of settling for jump shots or passively getting rid of the ball. James is a great passer blessed with exceptional court vision but--no matter how many times various people say it--he is not a pass first player and he is not the second coming of Magic Johnson; James is an incredible scoring machine and when he is on his game he is the 21st century Julius Erving, soaring to the hoop with one arm extended straight over his head for a devastating tomahawk dunk. The scoring and rebounding numbers that James is putting up during the Heat's 2012 playoff run are not Magic-like or Jordanesque but they are similar to the numbers Erving amassed in his ABA days, particularly when Erving led the Nets to the 1976 ABA title.

The big difference between Erving and James--other than the fact that Erving won two championships by the time he was 26 while James is still seeking his first championship at the age of 27--is that you never had to wonder which Erving would show up from game to game; Erving consistently attacked the hoop and he played with great energy at both ends of the court, while James needs to finish off this playoff run strongly and lead his team to a championship to make up for the fact that he blatantly quit during his previous two playoff campaigns (against Boston in 2010 and against Dallas in 2011). ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy said that there should be a two year statute of limitations on stupidity (referring to James' infamous Decision followed up by the Heat's ridiculous preseason celebration of the multiple championships they have yet to win) but while James can perhaps be forgiven for his poor public relations moves and ill advised comments about how "easy" it would be to "win multiple championships" the fact that the best player in the sport quit during the playoffs two years in a row should not be quickly forgiven or forgotten; James' great predecessors had bad games, made mistakes and experienced painful failures at times but no one ever had to wonder if they would try their hardest. James owes it to himself, to his teammates, to his great predecessors and to the sport itself to try his hardest during the 2012 NBA Finals; regardless of what stat lines James ultimately produces or which team eventually wins the title, there should never be a time in the NBA Finals when James is passively standing in the corner watching the game unfold: he must be constantly on the move, with or without the ball. That is not placing undue pressure on James; that is the level of expectation that goes along with being a three-time MVP. As ESPN's Magic Johnson and Chris Broussard noted during the pregame show, it is a compliment that James is expected to do so many wonderful things--and James should hope that the day never comes when people stop expecting him to be great.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 1:43 AM

0 comments

Maybe LeBron James was Right about Winning "Not One" Championship

"I feel sorry for whoever gotta guard both of us."--Dwyane Wade, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

"We're going to challenge each other in practice. And the way we're going to challenge each other to get better in practice, once the game starts, I mean, it's going to be easy. I mean, with me and Dwyane Wade running a wing, Pat could come back and play like he was back in his Kentucky days. Just throw it up there, we're going to get it."--LeBron James, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

"Not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven."--LeBron James, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

Unless LeBron James is planning on playing in the NBA until he is 50--and somehow convincing Commissioner David Stern to allow him to team up with the other four members of the All-NBA First Team--it does not seem likely that he will fulfill his pledge to win more than seven NBA championships. Boston's aging, infirm Big Three (plus young Rajon Rondo) defeated James' Miami Heat 94-90 in Miami in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals to take a 3-2 series lead. We keep hearing that the Celtics are about to break up their Big Three but, ironically, James' Heat may be one loss away from seeing their Big Three broken up; the Heat were considered in many circles to be overwhelming favorites to win the East--if not the NBA title--as one potential rival after another (including Chicago and Orlando) fell by the wayside due to injuries but now they have to win two games in a row to stave off elimination. If the Heat fail to make it to the NBA Finals, team President Pat Riley will justifiably have to wonder if it makes sense under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to pay max dollars to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

In Greek mythology it is called hubris: an overbearing pride or presumptuousness that precedes dramatic failure. In the NBA, it is called the Miami Heat--specifically, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Winning a championship in any sport at any level is never easy--and winning a championship at the highest level of a sport is particularly challenging. That is why Andrew Bynum sounded like such an idiot early this postseason when he declared that closeout games are "easy"; Shaquille O'Neal got it right on TNT recently when he said that closeout games are the toughest games. Bynum should know better but maybe it is easy for him to talk out of the side of his neck because his primary role during the Lakers' 2009 and 2010 championship runs was to put up Luc Longley numbers before sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter and watching Kobe Bryant go to work.

Wade should know better as well; even if he got things twisted in his mind during the 2006 NBA Finals when he faced single coverage while the Dallas Mavericks focused their defensive attention on Shaquille O'Neal, the ensuing four year postseason drought should have reminded Wade how challenging the championship chase really is: after Miami's 2006 championship season, Wade did not win another playoff series until he, James and Bosh teamed up last year. James and Wade talk and act like all they have to do is just stroll into any NBA arena and the players on the other team will bow down to them; that approach may work to some degree against inferior teams during the regular season but--as Magic Johnson has repeatedly noted--the Heat lack toughness and mental fortitude: when the going gets tough, James, Wade and company don't dig down deeper and fight harder. They just seem to lack the indefinable but essential character traits of champions--but James and Wade lack more than just those intangibles: they also appear to be incapable of executing a half court offensive set against elite defensive pressure, instead running what I call a "clown car" offense because it is about as organized and efficient as clowns piling out of a car at a circus. It is easy to blame Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra but James is the best player in the NBA and Wade is supposedly a top five player--yet James and Wade are repeatedly stymied when the opposing team uses a basic zone and challenges James and Wade to move without the ball and/or consistently make an outside shot. I seriously doubt that Coach Spoelstra is drawing up sets that involve no ball movement and that station James in the corner as a passive bystander; the Heat's problem is that James and Wade are so used to just overwhelming opponents with their athleticism that James and Wade do not consistently have a good counter to opponents who get back on defense, stay in front of them and are not intimidated.

Yes, I predicted that the Heat would beat the Celtics--and it is still possible that the Heat will win the series--but I also said that the Celtics could emerge victorious if Rajon Rondo is the best player on the court for an extended period of time, if the Celtics execute the correct anti-Heat game plan (limiting Miami's paint points and free throws through good shot selection, a low turnover rate and excellent transition defense) and if LeBron James quits. So far, Rondo has performed magnificently and the Celtics have executed their game plan reasonably well. It would not be fair or accurate to say that James has quit but, despite his gaudy statistics, James has not made an imprint down the stretch in the past three games as the Celtics grabbed control of the series. All of the overheated nonsense about clutch shots is irrelevant; what LeBron James should be doing is what Kobe Bryant did during the 2009 and 2010 postseasons and what Dirk Nowitzki did during the 2011 playoffs: controlling games down the stretch, a quality that may not be definable by a specific score/time remaining parameter but that is more significant than just making clutch shots.

When James played in Cleveland, he had the support of a fan base that enthusiastically cheered for him, unlike the late arriving Miami fans who sit on their hands for most of the game. If James had been willing to commit to the Cavaliers the way that Kevin Durant committed to Oklahoma City and the way that Derrick Rose committed to Chicago, the Cavaliers would have been perennial championship contenders (and if James had not quit during the 2010 playoffs then he likely would already have won at least one championship); I said it right after James left Cleveland and I'll say it again now: while it is possible that James will win a championship in Miami, it is also possible that after James retires we will look back on his career and say that the best all-around teams he played for were the 2007-2010 Cavaliers. James handpicked his destination and his teammates in the summer of 2010 yet all we keep hearing is how he supposedly does not have enough help. Whose fault is that? James could have stayed in Cleveland, played for a team that annually won well over 60 games and then recruited any number of players to bolster the roster--and he could have played for Mike Brown, a defensive-minded coach who took the depleted Lakers to the second round this season, matching what Phil Jackson did in a regular length season with a deeper roster.

If the Celtics defeat the Heat in this series, the media spin will focus more on "Heat lose" than "Celtics win" so it is important to give full credit to Doc Rivers--the brilliant Boston Coach who was repeatedly and foolishly criticized for years by supposed basketball expert Bill Simmons--and Boston's players, particularly Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. As ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy mentioned during the game five telecast, Boston's star players mesh together well because their strengths and weaknesses are complementary. This is a marked contrast with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who arguably are the three most talented individual players in this series (when Bosh is fully healthy) but whose skill sets are not complementary: James and Wade are primarily isolation players, which relegates Bosh to a glorified Horace Grant role on the weak side despite his abundant skills as both a post player and a face up player. Even though James and Wade have yet to figure out how to fully utilize Bosh's skills, it is striking that the Heat's record is much better with Bosh (in both the regular season and the playoffs) than without him. While the Heat run the "clown car" offense and often loaf back on defense--a point that Van Gundy repeatedly emphasized during game five--the Celtics space the floor and maximize each player's talents on offense while also playing rugged, tenacious defense.

The Celtics are gritty and mentally tough; the Heat are, as Joakim Noah so memorably and aptly put it, "Hollywood as hell"--a team that values style over substance, a team that takes its cue from superstars who had a coronation party before they had even played a single game together and who used that occasion to brag about how the whole basketball world would have to bow down before them. What do you think Rivers, Garnett, Rondo, Pierce and Allen thought of that spectacle? I guarantee you that they were not impressed or intimidated by it.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 4:54 AM

22 comments

Notes on the Eastern and Western Conference Finals

Both Conference Finals have gone according to form so far and it seems likely that San Antonio will face Miami in the NBA Finals. Here are some stats and notes about the 2012 edition of the NBA's "Final Four":

1. During ESPN's telecast of Miami's 115-111 overtime victory against Boston in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals, Mike Breen mentioned that LeBron James has led his team in scoring, rebounding and assists outright 23 times in his playoff career, more than any other player in NBA history. The usually astute Jeff Van Gundy said that this stat provides an indication of how weak James' supporting cast was in Cleveland. Superficially that seems logical but consider who ranks second to James in this category: Larry Bird, who led the Celtics in scoring, rebounding and assists in 13 playoff games. Bird played alongside two other Hall of Fame big men (Robert Parish, Kevin McHale) and two Hall of Fame point guards (first Nate Archibald, then Dennis Johnson). Bird's supporting cast certainly was not weak and yet he often led the Celtics in scoring, rebounding and assists during playoff competition; a versatile, MVP level player shoulders a lot of responsibility to be consistently productive. Tim Duncan, who ranks third with 11 playoff games as his team's sole leader in points, rebounds and assists, also has had an excellent supporting cast throughout his career. James' often impressive playoff statistics are a tribute to his capabilities but they do not somehow prove that he had a weak supporting cast in Cleveland. However, James' demonstrated ability to impact a game in several ways means that there is no excuse for the two times in his postseason career when his numbers and effort level demonstrate that he quit: the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals versus Boston and the 2012 NBA Finals versus Dallas. James cannot be expected to always shoot well but he can be expected to consistently play with a high energy level.
   
2. Rajon Rondo's 44 point, 10 assist, eight rebound performance for Boston in game two was a truly stunning all-around display: he played all 53 minutes, he hit jumpers (the one part of his game that is normally a weakness), he drove to the hoop, he guarded James on the final play of regulation and he did everything humanly possible to lead the Celtics to victory. In my Miami-Boston preview I predicted that Miami would win the series but said that Boston could prevail if "Rondo goes nuts and is the best player on the court for significant stretches of time." It is a good sign for the Celtics that Rondo proved that he is capable of being the best player on the court despite the presence of three-time MVP James but it is a bad sign for the Celtics that they lost despite Rondo's incredible effort. It would have been very interesting to see how James and the Heat would have reacted to losing home court advantage in the series but now the Celtics face the monumental task of beating the Heat four times in the next five games.
3. The Oklahoma City Thunder's impressive 102-82 game three victory over the San Antonio Spurs ended perhaps the "quietest" (in terms of relative media coverage) long winning streak in NBA history, if not in the history of professional sports. The Spurs won 20 straight games, which is tied for the third longest streak in NBA history behind the 1971-72 Lakers (33) and the 2007-08 Rockets (22); the 1948-49 Washington Capitols and 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks also had 20 game winning streaks. The Spurs were incredibly dominant, winning 15 of those 20 games by 10 or more points. The Spurs' winning streak is the longest combined regular season/playoff winning streak in NBA history and the first 20-plus game winning streak in NBA history that spanned both the regular season and the playoffs, beginning with the last 10 regular season games and then extending through the Spurs' first 10 playoff games; the 2000-01 Lakers won their last eight regular season games and their first 11 playoff games. Did the Thunder merely prevent a sweep or did they take the first step toward extending this series to six or seven games?
   

Labels: Boston Celtics, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Rajon Rondo, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:11 PM

19 comments

Miami Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Miami (46-20) vs. #4 Boston (39-27)

Season series: Boston, 3-1

Boston can win if...the Celtics execute their half court offense efficiently, limit their turnovers and force LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot contested jump shots instead of layups, dunks and free throws.

Miami will win because...the Heat's talented James/Wade duo (which resumes being a talented trio if Chris Bosh recovers from his abdominal injury and is able to return to action) will be too much for the aging and injured Celtics to handle.

Other things to consider: James and Wade both performed at a historically significant level of greatness in the second half of the series versus the Indiana Pacers as the Heat rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win three straight games. James' 40 point, 18 rebound, nine assist performance in game four has been matched in all three categories only one other time in NBA playoff history (Elgin Baylor rang up those exact same numbers in a 1961 playoff game). James averaged 30.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 6.2 apg versus the Pacers. Wade struggled early in the series but he scored 30, 28 and 41 points in the final three games; he averaged 26.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 3.3 apg overall during the series.

Those final three games represent the best that we have seen from James and Wade as a duo since they joined forces in 2010 but even though they deserve credit for executing under pressure it must be noted that the Pacers helped the Heat by committing what are called "unforced errors" in tennis jargon: the Pacers did not exploit their mismatch advantages in the paint on offense and their unforgivably sloppy ball handling not only wasted several potential scoring opportunities but also fueled Miami's deadly transition game. The main keys to beating the Heat are scoring inside in the half court set--thus slowing the game down and potentially getting the Heat into foul trouble--and minimizing the opportunities that James and Wade have to score easy points (layups, dunks, free throws). According to the data compiled at NBA.com/Stats, 51 of James' 139 field goal attempts versus the Pacers were from less than five feet away from the hoop. Not surprisingly, James converted 37 of those attempts (.725). James shot just 4-16 (.250) on his attempts from five to nine feet but that low percentage can probably be attributed to a small sample size. The significant statistics from a larger sample size show that he shot 16-33 (.485) from eight to 16 feet and 10-26 (.385) from 16-24 feet. James attempted 51 free throws versus the Pacers. Wade attempted 34 of his 123 shots versus the Pacers from closer than five feet and he made 24 of those shots (.706). Like James, Wade fared poorly on his small number of attempts from five to nine feet (7-16, .438). Wade shot 20-46 (.435) on his attempts from eight to 16 feet versus the Pacers and 9-28 (.321) from 16-24 feet. Wade attempted 53 free throws versus the Pacers. Obviously, keeping James and Wade out of the paint and off of the free throw line is easier said than done but the only way to beat the Heat is to focus consistently on proper shot selection and careful ball handling and then play disciplined half court defense. The team that beats Miami will stick to this game plan and will have athletes who are skilled enough to execute this game plan.

This may be the swan song for Boston's Big Three plus Rondo quartet (after Boston's 85-75 game seven victory over Philadelphia, Coach Doug Collins called them the "Championship Four"); Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo led Boston to the 2008 NBA Championship and the 2010 NBA Finals but the Celtics seem to be running on fumes now. Boston struggled to finish off a game but limited Philadelphia team that likely would have been first round fodder versus Chicago if Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah had not suffered injuries. The Celtics are a well coached, veteran squad that certainly will try very hard to execute the anti-Heat game plan mentioned above but the Celtics may not have enough young and/or healthy bodies to do so. Boston's 3-1 head to head regular season dominance against Miami is a bit misleading; not only is it difficult to compare regular season games from a truncated, post-lockout season to playoff games but both teams rested their key players in their final head to head meeting of the season (a 78-66 Boston win).

If Kevin Garnett not only performs at an All-Defensive First Team level but also averages 20 ppg while shooting above .500 from the field, if Ray Allen rediscovers his lost three point stroke, if Paul Pierce plays LeBron James to a draw (or reasonably close to it) in their head to head matchup and if Rajon Rondo dominates Miami's point guards then the Celtics can win this series. Rondo carried the Celtics down the stretch versus Philadelphia in game seven, finishing with 18 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals--just the second game seven triple double in the storied history of the Celtics franchise (Larry Bird had 39 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists versus New York in 1984). Rondo now has nine career playoff triple doubles, tying him with Wilt Chamberlain for fourth on the NBA's all-time list (Magic Johnson leads the way with 30, followed by Jason Kidd's 11 and Bird's 10).

The best chance for a Boston upset would be a combination of all of these factors:

1) Proper execution of the anti-Heat game plan.
2) Rondo goes nuts and is the best player on the court for significant stretches of time.
3) James quits.

The Celtics are disciplined enough mentally to stick with the right game plan but I question whether they are physically capable of getting the job done. We have seen the 6-1 Rondo go crazy in playoff games and he can even guard James on occasion; it is remarkable to see Rondo literally go nose to belly button with James but not back down for one second. Rondo outperformed James in key stretches of the 2008 Boston-Cleveland playoff series, so I would not be shocked if that happened again but I am not sure that it will happen for a long enough period of time to completely tilt the series in Boston's favor.

Whether or not James will quit is the ultimate X factor with this series; it would have been interesting to see how James would have reacted if the Pacers had played correctly in game four by pounding the ball inside offensively and keeping James and Wade out of the paint at the other end of the court: if Indiana had taken a 3-1 series lead then James and company might have folded up shop. If James plays hard versus the Celtics then the Heat should win.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 1:03 AM

9 comments

Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting

Media members vote for the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year Award, while the league's head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (coaches are not permitted to choose players from their own squads). There were some interesting differences in the specific choices made by the media and coaches this season.

Tyson Chandler narrowly defeated Serge Ibaka to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award, 311-294; players receive five points for a first place vote, three points for a second place vote and one point for a third place vote. Chandler's name appeared on 81 out of 121 ballots while Ibaka's name appeared on 82 ballots but the difference was that Chandler received 45 first place votes while Ibaka received 41. Dwight Howard, who won the award the previous three seasons, finished a distant third, followed by Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Andre Iguodala, Shawn Marion, Luol Deng and Josh Smith; except for Smith, each of those players received at least one first place vote.

Media members can be easily swayed by compelling narratives (hopefully they are not influenced by who speaks with them on a given day or who gives them the best quotes) and the two narratives that apparently influenced the Defensive Player of the Year voting are (1) Tyson Chandler "changed the culture for the New York Knicks" (even though the Knicks were not any better this season than they were last season) and (2) Dwight Howard is annoyingly wishy washy and did not always play hard (even though he ranked third in the league in bpg, led the league in defensive rebounds for the fifth year in a row, tried to play with a ruptured disk in his back that ultimately required surgery and was the defensive linchpin for an Orlando team that does not have any other above average individual defensive players). In my 2012 NBA Awards article I explained why Howard should win the award, with James finishing second and Ibaka placing third.

The All-Defensive Teams are selected by position, so the raw voting totals cannot be directly compared with the Defensive Player of the Year voting totals, but the coaches did not value Chandler quite as highly as the media members did. Dwight Howard earned the First Team nod at center with 16 First Team votes and nine Second Team votes, while Chandler received Second Team honors. LeBron James received the most overall votes and was the only player chosen by every coach (24 First Team votes, five Second Team votes). Ibaka received the second most votes overall and joined James as a First Team forward. Chris Paul and Tony Allen are this year's First Team guards.

Kobe Bryant's streak of six straight All-Defensive First Team selections was snapped but he made the Second Team along with Rajon Rondo, Chandler and forwards Kevin Garnett and Luol Deng. Andre Iguodala actually outpointed Bryant 19-17 (First Team votes are worth two points, while Second Team votes are worth one point) but Iguodala presumably did not make the squad due to positional designation (Iguodala is a forward and he received one fewer point than Deng).

For the fourth time in the past five seasons, the coaches selected eight of the 10 players who I selected for the All-Defensive First and Second Teams (last season the coaches and I agreed on six of the 10 choices). The only difference between my First Team this season and the coaches' First Team is that I chose Grant Hill (who received one First Team vote from the coaches but did not get enough overall points to make the squad) while the coaches picked Chris Paul, who I put on my Second Team. The coaches and I both "demoted" Bryant to the Second Team but I chose Iguodala as a Second Team forward and I did not pick Rondo at all. My reasoning for leaving out Garnett is that he did not excel early in the season at forward and that even though he played very well for the rest of the season as a center he did not have more defensive impact at that position than Howard and Chandler did. While Garnett did perform at an All-Defensive Team level, he did not do so at forward and in this instance the lack of adherence to positional designations cost Iguodala. Hill is nominally a small forward but I put him at guard because he often defended point guards so that Steve Nash could "guard" the weakest perimeter scoring threat on the opposing team.

The "stat gurus" only know what their spreadsheets tell them--and their spreadsheets can only reflect back the biases that went into creating those spreadsheets--so each year around this time there is a torrent of articles declaring that NBA coaches do not have a clue about defense, which is a funny assertion considering that the coaches have to game plan for each team in the league and thus have at least some notion about which defenders cause problems for their teams.

Labels: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Luol Deng, Rajon Rondo, Serge Ibaka, Tony Allen, Tyson Chandler

posted by David Friedman @ 3:05 PM

0 comments

Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#4 Boston (39-27) vs. #8 Philadelphia (35-31)

Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1 

Philadelphia can win if…the 76ers are able to limit their turnovers, force Boston to turn the ball over and then score in transition.

Boston will win because…the Celtics have three future Hall of Famers plus a top notch point guard who is probably their most valuable player now; the Celtics simply have too much talent and too much championship level experience to lose to an inexperienced team that lacks a true superstar and struggles to score in a half court set. Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams lead a nice cast of solid Philadelphia players but with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo the Celtics can use multiple options/looks both offensively and defensively.

Other things to consider: Derrick Rose's injury cleared the way for the 76ers to upset the Chicago Bulls in the first round but even with Rose--and then Joakim Noah--sidelined by injury Philadelphia hardly won convincingly. Doug Collins is an excellent coach who has squeezed the most out of his team but it is not realistic to think that the 76ers can defeat the Celtics in a seven game series unless the Celtics suffer a rash of injuries.

This series could feature some very ugly, low scoring games, particularly if the Celtics do not turn the ball over and thus force Philadelphia to execute against an entrenched defense; the 76ers have tremendous difficulty generating points in their half court offense, so they could easily sputter their way to some 10 point quarters and/or 30 point halves against Boston. 

The Celtics do not look like a championship caliber team but if they defeat Philadelphia, win one road game in the Eastern Conference Finals and defend their home court in that series versus Miami or Indiana then the "Big Three plus Rondo" could make one last trip to the NBA Finals.

Labels: Andre Iguodala, Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Lou Williams, Paul Pierce, Philadelphia 76ers, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 6:42 AM

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Bryant and Garnett Each Earn All-Defensive First Team Honors for the Ninth Time

Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard earned unanimous selection to the 2011 All-Defensive Team, receiving 27 First Team votes and two Second Team votes in balloting conducted among the league's 30 head coaches (coaches are not permitted to vote for their own players). Howard has thus been recognized as the league's top defender by members of the media (who vote for the Defensive Player of the Year) and by the coaches.

After not making either squad last season, a revitalized Kevin Garnett received First Team honors for a record-tying ninth time; Kobe Bryant made the First Team for the ninth time overall and the sixth season in a row. Michael Jordan and Gary Payton are the only other nine-time members of the All-Defensive First Team. Tim Duncan holds the all-time mark with 13 total All-Defensive Team selections (including eight First Team nods), followed by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (11), Bobby Jones (11, including two ABA selections), Kobe Bryant (10), Kevin Garnett (10) and Scottie Pippen (10). The NBA has selected All-Defensive Teams each season since 1969-70, while the ABA selected an All-Defensive Team (one five man unit only, not two five man units) from 1972-73 through 1975-76.

LeBron James and Rajon Rondo are the other First Team selections; James made the First Team for the third straight year, while this is Rondo's second consecutive First Team selection (Rondo made the Second Team in 2009).

Defense is half of the game and yet even many "stat gurus" acknowledge that "advanced basketball statistics" do not precisely measure individual defense. "Stat gurus," media members and fans each have certain biases and these various biases become quite pronounced regarding defense precisely because defense is so hard to quantify and because most observers do not have a sophisticated (or even basic) understanding of NBA defense on a team or individual level. Scientists have spent more than 50 years and hundreds of millions of dollars to repeatedly verify arguably the most successful theory of all time (Einstein's Theory of Relativity), so it is mystifying that "stat gurus" appear to be completely disinterested in experimentally verifying their "advanced basketball statistics"; even more troubling is that "stat gurus" largely disregard the reality that many of the basic box score numbers are subjective or even just wrong: I have repeatedly provided evidence that assist totals are inaccurate and I strongly suspect that there are similar problems with defensive numbers like steals and blocked shots (not to mention the fact that the league is not even attempting to quantify many of the most important important aspects of team defense, such as switching, hedging, double-teaming and so forth). The raw box score numbers are both flawed and incomplete, yet the "stat gurus" stubbornly insist that they alone possess the full truth about how to evaluate NBA players.

My All-Defensive Team choices are usually very similar to the official selections (the coaches agreed with eight of my 10 picks in each of the past three seasons: 2008, 2009 and 2010) while differing from the opinions expressed by "stat gurus," media members and other self-proclaimed experts. This season, six of my 10 All-Defensive Team choices matched the coaches' choices, including all five of my First Team picks plus the selection of Tyson Chandler as the Second Team center; the coaches rounded out their Second Team with Tony Allen, Chris Paul, Andre Iguodala and Joakim Noah while I preferred Thabo Sefolosha, Grant Hill, Tim Duncan and Gerald Wallace. I rejected Allen because he barely averaged 20 mpg and I simply did not think that Paul was quite as effective defensively as he was in previous seasons. I mentioned Noah as a quite viable Second Team honoree and I feel the same way about Iguodala; they each totaled 15 points (players receive two points for each First Team vote and one point for each Second Team vote) and were thus the last players to make the cut, just ahead of Dwyane Wade (14 points), Russell Westbrook (13) and a quartet of players who received 11 points each: Wallace, Hill, Luol Deng (another player who I gave an honorable mention) and Duncan. Sefolosha, a member of the Second Team last season, received just five Second Team votes.

Labels: Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Rajon Rondo

posted by David Friedman @ 3:30 AM

16 comments

Miami Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Miami (58-24) vs. #3 Boston (56-26)

Season series: Boston, 3-1

Boston can win if…the Celtics protect the ball and control the boards, two key factors to prevent the Heat from scoring easy points in transition. The Celtics want to play a low scoring, half court game, while the Heat want to play an uptempo, open court game. Rajon Rondo will have to perform very dominantly in multiple categories--points, rebounds and assists--to help offset the production of Miami's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh; if Rondo plays well he will distort Miami's defense and thus create opportunities for Boston's "Big Three" of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, three future Hall of Famers who cannot create shots for themselves at this stage of their careers to the same extent that Miami's superstar trio can create shots for themselves. The Celtics will also need to get strong production from the center position (Jermaine O'Neal, Nenad Krstic and Shaquille O'Neal--assuming that Shaq is healthy enough to play and in good enough condition to make any kind of impact).

Miami will win because…the Celtics lost a major advantage over the Heat when the Celtics traded away Kendrick Perkins; the Heat now match up better inside with the Celtics than they did before that deal. Perkins' screens helped to free up Paul Pierce and Ray Allen on offense, while Perkins' physical presence in the paint deterred opposing teams from scoring easy baskets in the paint. Either team is capable of winning on the road in this series but the Heat have game seven at home if necessary, a trump card that has proven to be significant historically.

Other things to consider: Prior to the season, I felt very strongly that the Celtics would beat the Heat if the teams met in a seven game playoff series. The Celtics defeated the Heat the first three times the teams faced each other in the regular season but in the final encounter--the only one played after the Perkins trade--Miami won 100-77; I am the last person who would try to read too much into just one regular season game but the importance of that contest is (1) the Heat dominated the boards and (2) that victory without question gave the Heat added confidence about their team in general and about the matchup versus Boston in particular.

The Celtics will have the edge in any game that is close down the stretch because the biggest question/concern for the Heat is their half court offensive execution; the Heat have had some much discussed failures in the final seconds of close games but "clutch shot stats" are inherently overrated due to small sample sizes and the fact that such shots are low percentage plays by nature: the real issue for the Heat is not so much what they will do in the final two minutes or the final 10 seconds but rather what they will do throughout the game against an opponent that prevents the Heat from repeatedly scoring easy baskets in transition. If the Heat run their "clown car" offense (which consists of LeBron James or Dwyane Wade dribbling aimlessly and the Heat looking as disorganized as clowns piling out of a circus car) then the Celtics will win this series.

I expect this series to go the distance, with seemingly dramatic momentum changes from game to game and within the games; there will be a lot of fodder for idiots in the media to propagate various flawed theories such as "Wade should be the closer" or "Team X (whoever lost the previous game) cannot possibly recover" (except that Team X then wins the very next game, much like what we just saw in the Dallas-Portland series after Portland's big game four comeback win).

Regardless of all of the season-long media hype about Miami being "Dwyane Wade's team," during the regular season LeBron James led the Heat in minutes, scoring, assists and steals while ranking second in rebounding and James led the Heat in minutes, scoring, rebounding and assists during their first round victory over Philadelphia. James is bigger than Wade, there is no skill set area in which Wade is better than James and James is less turnover prone; James is Miami's best player by statistical, skill set and "eye test" reasons. This series will likely be decided by James authoring a signature game seven performance at home in a close Miami victory. If that happens, then some people will undoubtedly say that this triumph justifies James' choice to flee Cleveland to play for Miami but it could also be argued that if James stars during this series then it makes the way that he blatantly quit versus Boston in last year's playoffs even more puzzling and disappointing.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 PM

13 comments

Flawed Box Score Numbers Can Lead to Faulty Conclusions

It has been a while since I charted a player's assists for an entire NBA game but a play from Boston's 105-89 victory over Denver on Wednesday night caught my eye: Rajon Rondo passed the ball to Ray Allen in the right corner, Allen took two dribbles, drove from behind the three point line to the hoop, made a contested left handed layup--and Rondo received an assist! While it is true that technically an assist can be awarded even if the shooter dribbles after receiving the pass, an assist is supposed to be a pass that leads "directly" to a score. There is nothing special about making a routine pass to the corner and watching a future Hall of Famer execute an excellent move. An assist is supposed to reward the passer for helping to create a shot, not for simply being the last player to handle the ball before someone else shoots.

Some people may dismiss my concerns about the authenticity of NBA assists by looking at players' home/road splits, arguing that this all evens out, but I reject that contention for two reasons:

1) I have never suggested--and do not believe--that the primary problem is "home cooking"; I think that the assist standards have been lowered across the board (even though the official definition of an assist has not been changed) and I also strongly suspect that scorekeepers are more apt to give borderline (or even bogus) assists to players who are perceived as elite playmakers than they are to players who are not perceived that way. In other words, if Glen Davis had made the pass that Rondo made to Allen I doubt that Davis would have received an assist, even in Boston. The reason I say this is that if assists were handed out on every such play then almost every field goal in the league would be classified as an assisted field goal and that is not the case, though the number of assisted field goals has trended upward in recent years--a strange phenomenon considering how much of the NBA game consists of post up plays and isolations.

2) If, as I suspect, elite playmakers receive a certain benefit of the doubt across the board then things do not really even out over the course of the season--and this should be a great concern to both "old school" journalists/historians as well as to the "stat gurus."

This type of thing is one reason that I do not trust "advanced basketball statistics"; the "stat gurus" create formulas that not only contain various flaws/biases but they are also using basic numbers (i.e., box score statistics) that are not completely reliable. As I have said many times, it is much more valuable to have a player who draws a double team and makes the correct initial pass that ultimately leads to an open shot on the weak side than to have a player who racks up high assist totals because he handles the ball all of the time and/or he benefits from lax scorekeeping standards.

I thought that Chris Paul was the best point guard in the NBA a couple years ago even though my research strongly indicated that his assist totals were heavily inflated and I think that Rajon Rondo is one of the best point guards in the NBA now even though I don't believe that he is legitimately averaging over 14 apg--but until the NBA vastly improves its scorekeeping standards I will look with a jaundiced eye at the most subjective box score numbers (assists, steals, blocked shots, turnovers) and I will also be most suspicious of "advanced basketball statistics" that are based on those faulty numbers.

Labels: "advanced basketball statistics", assists, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo

posted by David Friedman @ 4:37 AM

6 comments

Lakers Repeat as Champions, Kobe Bryant Earns Second Finals MVP

The L.A. Lakers recovered from a 3-2 deficit to defeat the Boston Celtics in one of the most dramatic seven game series--and dramatic game sevens--in NBA history; game six was a happy go lucky romp for the Lakers but game seven was a brutal war: eight current or former All-Stars participated and only one of them (Kevin Garnett) made more than half of his shots from the field. Kobe Bryant won the Finals MVP for the overall brilliance that he displayed during the series; he became just the seventh player in NBA history to score at least 20 points in each game of a seven game NBA Finals series, joining a list that includes Bob Pettit, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West (who did it three times), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird and Hakeem Olajuwon. Bryant's impact went beyond mere numbers, though; as Boston Coach Doc Rivers noted after game seven, "Kobe makes you trap and that's what we don't really want to do because of the mismatches." A major theme throughout this series--and any series that involves Bryant--was how much Bryant's presence distorted the opposing team's defense and thus created both open shots and offensive rebounding opportunities for Bryant's teammates.

Bryant averaged 28.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg and 3.9 apg in the Finals while shooting .405 from the field and .883 from the free throw line. Bryant led the Lakers in scoring, assists and steals (2.1 spg) during the Finals and, for all of the talk about the Lakers' imposing frontcourt length, he ranked second on the team in rebounding. During the Lakers' 23 game postseason run he averaged 29.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 5.5 apg while shooting .458 from the field and .848 from the free throw line, numbers that are remarkably consistent with those that he posted during the 2008 playoffs (30.1, 5.7, 5.6, .479, .809) and the 2009 playoffs (30.2, 5.3, 5.5, .457, .883). That is a very impressive body of work as the best player on the team that posted the best record in the competitive Western Conference for three straight years, advanced to the Finals each time and captured back to back championships.

Even though Bryant, like most of the players on both teams, struggled with his shot in game seven (finishing with a game-high 23 points on 6-24 field goal shooting) he pulled down 15 rebounds--five more than any Celtic--and he helped to seal the deal by producing 10 fourth quarter points. Ron Artest played suffocating defense on Paul Pierce while also contributing 20 points, five rebounds and five steals; Pau Gasol (who shot 6-16 from the field) added 19 points, a game-high 18 rebounds and four assists. Andrew Bynum deserves special mention even though he posted pedestrian numbers (two points, six rebounds in 19 minutes): he gutted it out during the Lakers' long playoff run despite suffering a knee injury in the first round that will ultimately require surgery; his size and length proved to be important for the Lakers at various times throughout the playoffs even though he did not have a huge impact in game seven.

Pierce led the Celtics with 18 points and 10 rebounds but he shot just 5-15 from the field in a game-high 46 minutes. Garnett scored 17 points but only grabbed three rebounds, while Rajon Rondo had a near-triple double (14 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds).

In his postgame interview, Bryant--who loathes talking about his injuries--candidly admitted "I was hurt," adding that he could not make it through another entire season with his right knee and right index finger in their current conditions. Bryant said that it frustrated him that people kept talking about his age when the reality was that his injuries were limiting him: he noted that he simply cannot grip a basketball without taping his finger and that it is hardly a coincidence that he started reeling off 30 point games after getting his knee drained during the first round series versus Oklahoma City. Earlier in the playoffs, LeBron James talked about being a "no excuse" player while he rubbed his elbow and grimaced but there is every reason to believe that Bryant had at least two injuries that were much more severe than whatever was wrong with James' elbow (Bryant's sprained ankle--which had to be retaped during halftime of game six of the Finals--may also have been worse than James' elbow).

This series turned out to be epic in the literal sense of the word, a lengthy story with many twists and turns featuring the exploits of several heroic figures. Here is a chapter by chapter look at how the Lakers avenged their 2008 Finals loss to the Celtics, won a repeat title and claimed the 16th championship in franchise history.

Lakers Produce Solid Game One Effort

The Lakers built a 50-41 halftime lead in game one and were ahead by 20 after three quarters. Bryant set the tone at both ends of the court. On defense, he sagged off of Rondo in order to help out in various areas, denying passing angles to Boston's primary offensive options. Rondo burned the Lakers a couple times by cutting to the hoop but overall the positives of Bryant's roaming outweighed the negatives as the Celtics shot just .433 from the field. On offense, the Lakers used a Bryant-Bynum screen/roll action to good effect. Bynum set very physical screens, giving the Celtics a taste of their own medicine; the Celtics' defense collapsed on Bryant and this opened up multiple offensive options for the Lakers. Instead of asking Gasol to assert himself physically, the Lakers put him on the move, enabling him to take advantage of his mobility and length as opposed to engaging in trench warfare versus the Celtics. Bryant finished with 30 points, seven assists and six rebounds, shooting a respectable 10-22 from the field. Gasol took advantage of the extra attention that the Celtics paid to Bryant, accumulating 23 points and 14 rebounds, including eight on the offensive glass. Pierce led the Celtics with 24 points and nine rebounds, but he put up most of his numbers in garbage time when the outcome was no longer in doubt; when the game was up for grabs, Artest's physical defense kept Pierce in check.

The funniest thing about the NBA Finals is to watch/listen to the game by game reactions; the team that has won the most recent game is hailed as an unbeatable juggernaut, while the team that just lost supposedly faces a hopeless task. The reality is that historically speaking the game one winner overwhelmingly does tend to ultimately win a playoff series but those statistics are somewhat skewed because many of those previous series were mismatches--the superior team had homecourt advantage, won that first game at home and then eventually prevailed; however, in a championship series between the league's two most recent champions it should be obvious that it is extremely premature to declare the fight over after one round no matter how good (or bad) one team looked.

Game Two Reveals Cracks in the Lakers' Armor

In game two, foul trouble limited Bryant's minutes and prevented him from ever getting into a good rhythm; he scored 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting and led the Lakers in assists (six) and steals (four) but he also had five turnovers and was forced to play cautiously in the fourth quarter after picking up his fifth foul with 11:15 remaining and the Celtics clinging to a 74-72 lead.

Meanwhile, Ray Allen got so hot early in the game that the Lakers had to switch Bryant off of Rondo and on to Allen--but then Rondo got loose, finishing with a triple double (19 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists). The Lakers' defensive problems echoed the troubles that they experienced in the 2004 and 2008 Finals, when Bryant had to play a "firefighter" role defensively, trying to put out various "blazes" as Detroit and Boston respectively exploited various matchup advantages on the perimeter. Although Artest did an excellent job on Pierce, who finished with 10 points on 2-11 field goal shooting, Allen's tremendous shooting (32 points on 11-20 shooting, including a Finals record eight three pointers) and Rondo's all-around excellence carried the day for the Celtics. Gasol (25 points, eight rebounds, six blocked shots) and Bynum (21 points, six rebounds, seven blocked shots) put up some gaudy individual numbers but this belied the reality that the Celtics pushed the Lakers around, winning the rebound battle 44-39 and outscoring the Lakers 36-26 in the paint.

NBA TV's Chris Webber made a very cogent observation after game two: "When Kobe doesn't score it makes it hard for everybody else on that team to get open shots. No one (else on the Lakers) really can really create their own shots except for Pau Gasol. Bynum, you have to get him the ball." NBA TV's Kevin McHale declared, "Bynum should get 20 points--he's not being guarded half the time because his man is leaving him and going over to the strong side to load (against Bryant)."

Game Three: Fisher Steps Up (After Celtics Trap Bryant)

In the wake of the Lakers' 91-84 game three victory in Boston most of the talk centered around what happened in the game's closing moments. People tend to focus on end of game situations; those sequences are certainly important but the last time I checked every single basket counts the same throughout the game, so good plays--and bad plays--that happen early in a contest are also very important. Gasol got off to a terrible start in game three: first he let Garnett catch the ball deep in the post and offered little resistance as Garnett scored an easy hoop, then Gasol twice failed to hustle back on defense, enabling Garnett to get an easy fast break dunk and an uncontested fast break layup. Those kinds of plays not only can change the outcome of a particular game but they can also help a player who is struggling to get going; while Gasol did a good job defensively against Garnett in the first two games, those easy opportunities early in game three paved the way for Garnett to break out with 25 points on 11-16 field goal shooting. Conversely, Gasol's offensive effectiveness dipped, as he finished with just 13 points on 5-11 field goal shooting. In general, the Lakers were very passive offensively and this resulted in Bryant having to fire a lot of "hand grenade" shots--the ball frequently ended up in his hands with the shot clock dying so he had to hastily shoot before the shot clock "exploded." Thus, Bryant shot just 10-29 from the field en route to scoring a game-high 29 points. Despite the low shooting percentage, Bryant's productivity was important in a game during which neither team shot particularly well; also, Bryant had an outstanding floor game (seven rebounds, four assists, three blocked shots, two steals and just one turnover in a game-high 44 minutes).

So much is made of Gasol's productivity and efficiency but the reality is that he benefits greatly from the defensive attention that Bryant attracts. For instance, at the 4:01 mark of the first quarter in game three, three defenders trapped Bryant after he drove to the hoop--and the other two defenders were looking in Bryant's direction; Bryant made a slick pass to Gasol, who scored an uncontested layup. Many people are calling Gasol the best big man in the NBA and marveling at how much he has supposedly improved. Gasol has added strength and he has increased his mental toughness but it is incorrect to suggest that his skill set per se has actually changed significantly; he was a pretty skilled player in Memphis but the difference is that he was the team's number one option so defenses could focus on shutting him down. In contrast, as a Laker he is rarely if ever the primary focal point of the defense. Years ago, TNT's Kenny Smith used to say of Bryant that he was the best one on one player in the NBA who gets to play one on one (because Shaquille O'Neal drew so many double teams). Instead of calling Gasol the best big man in the NBA it would be more accurate to say that he is the best All-Star big man who gets to play one on one.

Game three snapped Bryant's streak of eight straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points and five assists, a run that tied Jerry West's NBA record; most of Bryant's teammates seemed tentative throughout game three, so Bryant did what he always does in similar situations: attempt to "fill that vacuum" (as Coach Phil Jackson has called it on previous occasions). Bryant helped the Lakers to build a 17 point first half lead but he exerted so much energy on both ends of the court during his game-high 44 minutes that he seemed a bit fatigued down the stretch. Fortunately for the Lakers, Derek Fisher scored 11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting during the final stanza. Fisher made perhaps the biggest play of the game when he drove coast to coast for a layup/three point play at the :48.3 mark of the fourth quarter to put the Lakers up 87-80; while he clearly created that opportunity on his own, several of his other shots were created by Bryant: Bryant and Fisher ran the unusual, rarely seen 1-2 (point guard-shooting guard) screen/roll and when the defense naturally trapped Bryant this freed up Fisher to drive or shoot--and the Lakers smartly ran this action to the left (Fisher's strong hand). Lakers assistant coach Brian Shaw explained, "It was one of those things last night, if Fish and Kobe weren't making the plays, everybody else out there was scared to make the plays. So we had to go with our two 14-year veterans." Boston Coach Doc Rivers noted, "I think people fail to realize the reason a lot of the other guys are open is because Kobe Bryant is on the floor."

After game three, Fisher said that he played as hard as he could because he did not want to have to look back in five or 10 years and wonder if maybe he could have done more to help his team win. Has LeBron James figured out that in five, 10 or 15 years he will look back in shame on his disgraceful lack of effort in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals? Many people just assume that James will eventually win multiple championships but competition--and life itself--does not work like that; the reality is that James may very well never play on a team as good as the 2010 Cavaliers and he may never have a better chance to win a championship than the golden opportunity that he squandered this year.

Ray Allen shot 0-13 from the field, a stunning contrast to his record setting performance in game two. ESPN's Avery Johnson noted that the Lakers were able to slow Allen down not merely because of Fisher's defensive efforts but also because Allen had to expend a tremendous amount of energy guarding Kobe Bryant.

Bryant's defense against Rajon Rondo again proved to be a significant factor. Fisher explained, "(It's) intelligence, you know, being smart about how to use his length and his size to bother him (Rondo). I think it changes (Rondo's) passing angles, which I think was another little subtlety in some of Ray Allen's struggles shooting last night...When Kobe is guarding the ball handler, Rondo, (Russell) Westbrook, whoever, his length changes their ability to make tighter, crisper passes... for shooters (to catch in) rhythm...Even though he (Rondo) was still effective, it was mostly in transition and a lot of that comes from us executing poorly at times."

Game Four: Celtics' Reserves Dominate

Pierce (19 points, six rebounds, five assists) led six Celtics in double figures as Boston won game four 96-89. Bryant tallied a game-high 33 points on respectable 10-22 field goal shooting but he received little help from his teammates; Gasol scored 21 points but he shot just 6-13 from the field--a poor percentage considering the high quality shot attempts he receives as a result of Bryant being trapped--and Gasol spent most of the night being pushed around at both ends of the court: on offense, the Celtics repeatedly forced Gasol to receive the ball well outside of the paint and on several occasions they stripped the ball right out of his hands and/or blocked his shot, while on defense the Celtics scored at will in the paint on his watch. None of this should have been terribly surprising; the Lakers' bench was awful for most of the season and Gasol is a skillful player who is not at his best in a rough and tumble game. Gasol is able to finish when Bryant draws multiple defenders and then dishes to him for layups, dunks or wide open short jumpers but when Gasol has to battle for post position and score one on one against a physical defender he often struggles.

Lamar Odom (10 points) was the only other Laker to score in double figures. Bynum's knee woes limited him to just two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes and the Celtics took advantage of his absence to dominate inside, winning the rebounding battle 41-34 and outscoring the Lakers in the paint 54-34.

In game four, the Celtics' bench dominated the Lakers' bench, outscoring them 36-18. I previously explained the difference between talent and depth: the 2008 Lakers were a relatively deep team (in terms of having eight to 10 players who could competently play at least 10 mpg) but they were not particularly talented at the top of their rotation, especially when compared to previous NBA Finalists that had multiple Hall of Famers in their starting lineups; since 2008, the Lakers have added talent to their starting lineup but trades, injuries and other factors have decimated their depth. The Lakers were never as deep as some people asserted and now it is clearly false to suggest that they have quality depth at all; in fact, their bench play is a major weakness. Furthermore, while the Lakers do have a talented starting lineup that quintet does not compare favorably to the starting units of championship teams from the past two decades, as I documented after the Lakers won the 2009 championship (swapping Ariza for Artest in 2010 is an upgrade but does not significantly change my analysis or the conclusions that I drew in 2009).

During a regular season game this season, one of the "Wired" segments captured Phil Jackson during a timeout imploring Bryant to "activate the ball"--that is Jackson's way of saying "No one else is getting anything accomplished, Kobe, so please take over the game with your scoring and stop passing to players who are unwilling and/or unable to score." The Lakers had an "activate the ball" moment in the second quarter of game four: as ESPN Radio's Hubie Brown pointed out, after the Lakers' offense completely bogged down Bryant decided to simply rise up and shoot the ball immediately as opposed to surveying his options and this change in tactics resulted in three straight jumpers by Bryant--two of them three pointers--as the Lakers broke a 29-29 tie and built an eight point lead. However, the Celtics fought back and cut the margin to 45-42 by halftime. During the halftime show, all that the "experts" talked about was how badly Boston was playing; a lot of what they said was true but did they not realize that it was just a three point game and that the Lakers, in their own way, were playing just about as badly as the Celtics were?

The Lakers' offense would have completely died in the third quarter if not for Bryant's three three pointers. In the fourth quarter, the Lakers' defense fell apart and even though they managed to score 27 points their offense was ragged; Bryant supplied 12 of those points.

Bryant shot 5-8 from the field in the first half and 5-14 from the field in the second half. This was not the first game this season in which Bryant became worn down because no one else on the team could create a shot and the bench could not be trusted to be on the court by themselves for much more than a couple minutes at a time.

A Tale of Two Game Fives: LeBron Quits, Kobe Fights

Bryant authored a tremendous individual performance in game five--scoring 38 points in 44 minutes while also grabbing five rebounds and leading the Lakers with four assists--but the rest of the Lakers did not show up and the Celtics won 92-86. Gasol (12 points) was the only other Laker to score in double figures but he shot just 5-12 from the field as the Celtics repeatedly bullied him out of the post. The Celtics used screen/roll plays with Pierce to good effect, forcing switches that enabled Pierce to evade Artest's physical defense; Pierce scored 27 points on 12-21 field goal shooting and he also received ample support from Garnett (18 points, 10 rebounds), Rondo (18 points, eight assists, five rebounds) and Ray Allen (12 points).

Even though the Lakers lost, game five demonstrated the gulf that exists between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James in terms of championship character. While James has more raw physical talent than Bryant at this stage of their careers and James has also dramatically narrowed the gap between them from a skill set standpoint, Bryant is still ahead of James in terms of understanding what it takes to be a winner. I am generally reluctant to compare the NBA game to the FIBA game but it is striking to note that the version of Team USA led by James, Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony had no answer in the 2006 FIBA World Championship when things got tough versus Greece; few people probably remember that Team USA took an early lead in that game, prompting James to haughtily declare in reference to Greece, "They don't know what to do." It is easy to be a front runner--James' Cavs did a lot of laughing and dancing as they cruised through the 2010 regular season--but it is not quite so easy to know what to do when your opponent punches you in the mouth; after Greece figured out what to do James had no response as Team USA went down in flames. In marked contrast, the 2008 edition of Team USA won the Olympic gold medal after Bryant took over down the stretch versus Spain in the championship game; in fact, when Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski called a timeout during a key segment of the fourth quarter versus Spain he went to Bryant--not James or anyone else--and specifically said that it was time for Bryant to take over.

What does that have to do with game five of the Finals? When the going got tough in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals, LeBron James quit playing aggressively, setting the tone for a monumental collapse by the team with the league's best regular season record; when the going got tough in game five of the NBA Finals, Bryant did whatever he could to keep the Lakers afloat even as his teammates disappeared. Bryant spent the early part of the contest trying to get his teammates involved offensively. During the first quarter, ESPN Radio's Hubie Brown declared, "Kobe is the story. He's making them double team him and he's finding the free people." Brown later called Bryant "the best player in the playoffs" and he criticized the Lakers for not running more offensive actions/sequences to create easier shots for Bryant. Brown also said that on several possessions Artest messed up the offensive flow because he did not pass the ball to an open player in the post (sometimes Bryant, sometimes another player). ABC's Mark Jackson made a similar observation when he said that sometimes Bryant pops open off of screens but the Lakers' passes "are not on point" and that this lack of precision/timing enabled the Celtics' defense to recover.

It is amazing, dumbfounding and infuriating to listen to Mike Wilbon repeatedly act like it is somehow Bryant's fault when the Lakers go through stretches in which none of his teammates can make a shot. When Wilbon talks about Bryant he uses the classic "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of faulty thinking: if Bryant's teammates play well then this "proves" that Bryant has a great supporting cast but if Bryant's teammates play poorly then Bryant is supposedly being selfish. The reality is that the Lakers have a good (not great) starting lineup and a terrible bench; Bryant is responsible for creating a large portion of the Lakers' offense and he is also the eyes/ears of the defense. Bryant's teammates combined to shoot 18-51 from the field in game five even though most of them got wide open shots because Bryant faced double and triple teams. Was it selfish of Bryant to shoot more often in the third quarter or was he just exercising common sense? The truth about game five is that in the first half Bryant repeatedly set up his teammates, as Hubie Brown mentioned, but when it became apparent that his teammates had nothing to offer Bryant took it upon himself to "activate the ball." If LeBron James or Dwyane Wade had scored 19 points in a quarter Wilbon would have fallen over praising them but when Bryant does it this supposedly is a reflection of some kind of character flaw.

It is also odd that Wilbon kept insisting that Boston's strategy was to let Bryant score and shut down everyone else. If that were the case then why did the Celtics send three or four bodies at Bryant if he even got close to the paint? Why did the Celtics trap Bryant with two defenders several feet behind the three point line? No, Boston's strategy was to make Bryant work hard for every shot even if that meant that other Lakers would get wide open shots; the Celtics certainly made every effort to recover to Bryant's teammates when Bryant passed the ball but the Celtics showed that they were quite content to watch any Laker but Bryant shoot wide open shots (as long as those shots were not layups).

Game five did much to destroy the bizarre myth that Gasol has become the best big man in the NBA. Gasol is a solid All-NBA Third Team player but he is not an "elite" player or a "franchise" player if those terms are used in any meaningful way. Gasol played extremely passively throughout game five, getting his shot blocked repeatedly, setting soft screens while failing to roll aggressively to the hoop and committing many defensive gaffes. Gasol does not need to elbow people in the head or get technical fouls; that has nothing to do with being tough and it has nothing to do with why Gasol is often labeled "soft." Gasol does not consistently display the mental and physical toughness to do what his team needs him to do based on his skill set and role. In this series specifically, the Lakers needed for Gasol to establish an aggressive post presence at both ends of the court; he did so at times and he ultimately came up big in game seven but during game five (and at other points during the series) he got bullied far too often when he played defense and he allowed Garnett and especially Boston's starting center Kendrick Perkins--who guarded Gasol whenever Bynum went to the bench and Gasol shifted to center--to push him almost out to the three point line on offense; don't just take my word about that: after game five, Lakers assistant coach Frank Hamblen said, "Pau has to do a better job of holding position."

After Bryant scored 19 straight third quarter points (and 23 straight points overall) he called a play for Gasol, but Gasol failed to hold off Garnett in the post, so Garnett tipped and stole Luke Walton's entry pass, a turnover that resulted in a fastbreak basket for the Celtics. It is a major fallacy to look at Gasol's high shooting percentage and declare that he should get more shot attempts; Gasol's field goal percentage is high precisely because he is primarily shooting dunks, layups and wide open jumpers, shots that are obtainable for the most part only when Bryant creates them. That is not to say that Gasol never makes a good one on one move but many of his high percentage shots are the result of Bryant drawing a double team, whether or not Bryant gets the assist on the play--that is one reason that I call the assist a "semi bogus" stat, because it does not really indicate how an open shot is actually created; the other reason is that scorekeepers do not strictly adhere to the rule book definition of an assist.

Earlier in the third quarter, Garnett scored an easy layup after Gasol messed up a defensive coverage; as ABC's Jeff Van Gundy pointed out, Bryant was correctly playing off of Rondo to cut down his passing angles to shooters coming off of screens but since Bryant was not pressuring the ball and there was no weakside help it was Gasol's responsibility to play behind Garnett--but instead Gasol fronted Garnett and Rondo simply lobbed the ball Gasol's head to an unguarded Garnett.

While we are examining myths and misconceptions that game five helped to debunk, let's return for a moment to a point that I made earlier during the playoffs: it became chic among some media members in Cleveland to assert that former Cavs Coach Mike Brown is a good game planner but that he is not good at making in game adjustments. I explained that this is a nonsensical distinction because the most important aspect of coaching is game planning; most of the so-called "in game adjustments" are in fact simply examples of a team following what was detailed in the game plan relating to the most likely scenarios to happen in a given game (i.e., if the opposing team goes small then we will react a certain way, if the opposing team posts up Player X then we will double team off of Player Y, etc.). If you don't believe me that this whole "in game adjustment" idea is nonsense then take heed of what Van Gundy said during ABC's game five telecast: responding to a question from play by play announcer Mike Breen, Van Gundy stated that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff."

Bryant is his Usual (Great) Self, Gasol and the Bench Step up as Lakers Rout Celtics to Force Game Seven

In game six, Bryant delivered another outstanding performance--26 points, 9-19 field goal shooting, 11 rebounds, three assists, four steals and just two turnovers in 40 minutes--but this time he received much more support from his teammates and the Lakers cruised to an 89-67 rout. Gasol added 17 points, 13 rebounds and nine* assists (see below for why I put an asterisk by Gasol's assist total). Artest took the same wide open three pointers (and questionable jumpers after bizarre, seemingly aimless dribbling forays) that he took in the first five games but this time he shot 6-11 from the field to contribute 15 points. No other Laker scored in double figures and the Lakers shot just .418 from the field overall but they played with such tremendous defensive energy that they held the Celtics to .333 field goal shooting. Ray Allen led Boston with 19 points, finally ending the three point shooting slump he had been in since his record setting game two performance (Allen made two of his five three point attempts and shot 7-14 overall).

Prior to game six, Van Gundy delivered this blistering refutation of some of the nonsense that has been spouted about Bryant: "Through five games of the Finals, Kobe Bryant has hands down been the MVP and despite an amazingly efficient game five his critics--particularly in the media--insist that his trust with his teammates is an issue. Trust me, he has an appropriate amount of trust for his teammates and the criticism that he takes is unjust and unwarranted for a body of work that can only be marked by greatness." Early in the game, Van Gundy returned to this issue and declared, "If he (Bryant) had a different personality where he tried to suck up to people and was warm and cuddly all the time not one person would have commented that it wasn't a great game five performance because when LeBron James scored 25 (straight points) and beat Detroit everybody raved about how he carried a team. Or when Jordan used to get 50 in a playoff game (people raved) about his greatness. They're talking about 'trust' after that type of game? That's a joke." During the fourth quarter, ABC's Mark Jackson said that even if the Celtics somehow won game six Bryant would still be the Finals MVP and Van Gundy replied, "Any other vote would be nuts."

Bryant dominated the first quarter, scoring 11 points on 5-8 field goal shooting as the Lakers built a 28-18 lead. Winning the first quarter proved to be very important during this series; the team that led after the first 12 minutes won each of the first six games (fortunately for the Lakers, they broke that trend in game seven).

After the game, Coach Jackson said that a major key for the Lakers was that they ran their offense well, thus limiting Boston's opportunities to get out in transition: "That was all Kobe. He made good plays, got good shots, got the ball to people who had good, open shot opportunities."

Bryant did not get his first rest until the Lakers were up 35-23, a big enough lead to enable their reserves to play with confidence. Van Gundy later said, "It is easier playing with a lead" and he questioned if the Lakers' reserves would be as effective in game seven if the Celtics would be able to keep the score closer in the early going (this proved to be a moot point, because in game seven Coach Jackson hardly used his bench at all--other than Odom, who is a de facto starter due to Bynum's limited minutes).

Perkins injured his knee at the 5:30 mark of the first quarter with the Lakers up 18-12. Perkins was unable to return to action, which proved to be a great boon for Gasol, who was able to move around the court much more freely and also establish deep post position on offense. The Lakers ran a lot of screen/roll sets and other actions that resulted in Bryant being double-teamed; Bryant then passed to Gasol and when a defender rotated to Gasol he swung the ball to the open man. Bryant created the open shots but Gasol ended up with nine assists, yet another example of why I consider assists to be a "semi bogus" statistic: according to the way that "stat gurus" analyze basketball, Gasol gets all of the credit for those plays, even though Bryant actually created those opportunities. Moreover, assists are not just "semi bogus" because they can at times fail to properly credit the player who really created a shot; assists are a very subjectively tabulated statistic. Consider the play during which Gasol registered his ninth assist: the Lakers ran a "guard around" action--a staple of the Triangle Offense in which a big man sets a screen and then passes the ball to a guard who cuts around him--and Gasol passed to Bryant, who then took two dribbles, stopped, pump faked and scored on an up and under move. The assist statistic has no meaning if an assist is awarded on a play in which the player who scored makes multiple moves/fakes: Bryant's offseason work with Hakeem Olajuwon had more to do with that score than Gasol's routine pass. In contrast, Bryant's assists to Gasol usually consist of Bryant drawing two defenders and making a tough pass in tight quarters to a wide open Gasol for an easy dunk (with no extra dribbles or fakes being required).

Also, speaking of up and under moves, one of my biggest pet peeves is when an announcer loosely uses that term to describe any number of moves that are not in fact up and under moves; an up and under move is when an offensive player in the post fakes like he is going straight "up" to shoot and he then goes "under" the defender's arms to get the shot off after the defender reacts to the initial fake. Kevin McHale absolutely mastered this move and Vlade Divac also made good use of it. Mike Breen, who is generally a solid play by play announcer, misuses "up and under" constantly; if a player drives to the hoop, jumps in the air on one side of the lane and then shoots a reverse layup that is a reverse layup, not an up and under move, but Breen invariably will exclaim that the player went "up and under."

Even though Gasol played well overall in game six he still had some flashbacks to game five; he shot just 6-14, which is not a good percentage considering the wide open, easy shot opportunities that he got as a result of Bryant being constantly double teamed. One time Gasol missed a shot and lingered in the backcourt to complain that he had been fouled; Mark Jackson noted that Gasol's move had been very passive and Jackson concluded, "That's not a foul. That's just a bad play offensively."

Bryant's 11 rebounds were two more than any Celtic and second on the Lakers to Gasol's 13. Some people scoffed a couple years ago when I asserted that Bryant is as good a rebounder as LeBron James even though James has a higher rpg average; it is important to remember that they play different positions and often have different responsibilities. Bryant has an uncanny ability to get free throw line offensive rebounds and other rebounds in critical situations but because he plays guard--and is sometimes assigned to defend point guards--he does not have the same number of rebounding opportunities that James does; however, Bryant can go out and get double digit rebounds when this is required, much like Michael Jordan grabbed 16, 11, nine and 11 rebounds in a four game stretch during the 1995-96 season when Dennis Rodman was out of action: Jordan averaged 6.6 rpg that season but that number did not tell the complete story about his capabilities as a rebounder.

Odom again shot poorly from the field (3-9) but he snared 10 rebounds, including a game-high nine on the defensive glass; Odom is an erratic shooter and his passing/ballhandling skills are overrated but his most valuable trait--by far--is his ability to rebound and Van Gundy alluded to this when he said that if Odom is going to play 30-plus mpg in the Finals he must be a double figure rebounder.

Lakers Rally From 13 Point Second Half Deficit to Win a Grimy, Defensive-Minded Game Seven

Game sevens are beautiful in theory but this particular game seven was hardly an aesthetic treat: the victorious Lakers shot just .325 from the field (27-83), while the Celtics shot .408 from the field (29-71); rebounding turned out to be the difference in this game, as it was in every game of this series: the Lakers won the battle of the boards 53-40, including a 23-8 advantage on the offensive glass. This game reminded me very much of the Chicago Bulls' 88-83 game seven victory over the Indiana Pacers in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals: the Bulls shot just .382 from the field but bludgeoned the Pacers 50-34 on the boards and grabbed 22 offensive rebounds compared to just four for the Pacers. Michael Jordan scored a game-high 28 points but shot just 9-25 from the field, while Scottie Pippen had 17 points on 6-18 field goal shooting--but Jordan had nine rebounds and Pippen had a game-high 12 rebounds, much like Bryant and Gasol overcame their poor shooting by dominating the Celtics on the glass. I said before the series that the Lakers' two big trump cards in this matchup would be Kobe Bryant's brilliance and home court advantage and that is exactly how things played out: Bryant was brilliant for most of the series and did what he had to do in game seven, while each team won one road game but--as I expected--it proved to be too much for the Celtics to get a second win in L.A.

Although it was not pretty, this game seven certainly was dramatic, particularly during the closing moments, when we saw--and heard--improbable things:

1) After both teams struggled to score all game long, they combined to put up 20 points in the final 2:14.

2) In a span of barely 30 seconds, the teams combined to make three straight three pointers without a miss: Rasheed Wallace's trey cut the Lakers' lead to 76-73, Ron Artest answered from long distance to make the score 79-73 and then Ray Allen responded to again trim the margin to three points.

3) The Lakers seemed to have the championship wrapped up with less than 20 seconds remaining after Ray Allen missed a three pointer, but Rondo tracked down the ball, dribbled out behind the three point arc on the right baseline and coolly sank a trey to bring the Celtics within 81-79. Rondo shot just .213 from three point range during the regular season and he made one three pointer in four attempts during the first six games of the Finals.

4) There were at least four future Hall of Famers on the court in the waning seconds (Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) but the final points of the game, the series and the season were scored by none other than Sasha Vujacic, a little-used Lakers' reserve who averaged just 2.8 ppg in the regular season but calmly sank the two free throws that ultimately sealed the Lakers' victory.

5) After the Lakers won, Artest delivered perhaps the most heartfelt, surreal postgame interview ever, delivering "shout outs" to a wide range of people, including his friends from his "hood" and his psychiatrist. It is well documented that Artest has done many things wrong but the way that he seems to genuinely be trying to do right--even when he cannot quite figure out what he is supposed to do, on the court or off--is very touching; don't forget that the groundwork for Artest becoming a Laker was laid two years ago after the Lakers lost to the Celtics in the Finals and Artest wandered into the Lakers' locker room and told Bryant that he wanted to team up with Bryant so that the Celtics would never push the Lakers around like that again. It might seem crazy for a player from a team that was not even involved in that series to literally step into the shower with Bryant but I think that moment really embodied Artest's desire to become part of something bigger than himself and to make a meaningful contribution. For all of his faults, Artest willingly accepted his role on the Lakers and he allowed Coach Jackson and Bryant to lead him in the right direction.

Shortly after game seven began, Mark Jackson said, "You can tell that the Celtics' mindset is to try to put one and a half to two guys on Bryant early on and not allow him to catch fire." The difference this time was that in previous games Bryant either found at least one teammate who was willing/able to make shots and/or he "caught fire" despite the Celtics' best efforts; in game seven, though, the other Lakers started out 3-11 from the field and Gasol missed two free throws before Bryant even attempted a shot. Bryant obviously sensed that his teammates were nervous, so he reacted to their tentativeness by being too aggressive, forcing shots even when he was trapped. Bryant scored just three first quarter points on 1-7 field goal shooting and the Lakers trailed 23-14. Mark Jackson declared, "I don't think I've seen Kobe Bryant play a worse 12 minutes of basketball." Bryant candidly admitted after the game that he tried too hard in the early going and that the harder he tried the worse he played. There is no doubt that Bryant played poorly in those initial moments but I'd rather have a guy who is trying too hard to win as opposed to a guy who acts like it is too hard to try at all to win; I'll take Kobe Bryant spraying shots wildly but leaving his guts on the floor over LeBron James playing passively and looking disinterested in anything other than his impending free agency.

Wallace replaced Kendrick Perkins--who has two torn knee ligaments--in Boston's starting lineup and Wallace played a solid game (11 points, eight rebounds) before fouling out; he scored some baskets in the low post versus Gasol and in certain sequences the threat of Wallace potentially making outside shots helped to create some driving lanes for other Celtics.

Although Bryant and the other Lakers shot poorly, they stayed in contact with the Celtics by playing great defense. The Celtics only led 40-34 at halftime even though Bryant (3-14) and Gasol (3-12) combined to shoot 6-26 from the field in the first 24 minutes. However, some cracks began to show in the Lakers' defense early in the third quarter. Much like he did in game five, Gasol inexplicably fronted Garnett in the post even though Bryant and the other Lakers' guards (correctly) backed off of Rondo. After Garnett converted an easy three point play versus Gasol to put the Celtics up 45-36, Van Gundy said, "You cannot front if there is no ball pressure. There is no need to front if you are Gasol." Again, it is easy to look at a boxscore and talk about various statistics but these kinds of lapses--which do not show up explicitly in the numbers--are potentially very costly; if the Lakers had lost this game then you can bet that everyone would talk about Bryant's shooting percentage but no one would remember Gasol's defensive lapses.

Rondo's runner pushed the Celtics' lead to 47-36 and led to an uncustomarily early timeout by Jackson. Van Gundy expressed surprise at Bryant's inability to get going offensively: "He has been so efficient through six games, I am absolutely shocked that he has struggled as much as he has. He is rebounding but he has to find a way to get better quality shots." Another Rondo bucket gave the Celtics their biggest lead of the game, 49-36, and things certainly did not look good for the Lakers but they responded with an 8-2 run. The Lakers had weathered the storm and they only trailed 57-53 by the end of the third quarter.

Artest's three point play at the 7:28 mark tied the game at 61. Bryant nailed two free throws with 5:56 remaining to give the Lakers their first lead since early in the game, 66-64, and then 34 seconds later he hit a jumper to give them a bit of separation--a four point lead may not seem like much "separation" but with the way both teams struggled to make shots four points seemed like about 10 points, at least until the game's furious final two minutes.

A key factor down the stretch was that the Lakers not only got into the penalty early in the fourth quarter but that the Celtics then continued to commit fouls--some of them against players who were not in position to score--so that the Lakers could maintain their tenuous lead without making any field goals; the Lakers went nearly four minutes without a field goal after Bryant's jumper yet the Celtics were unable to gain any ground during that time because the Lakers made six out of eight free throws.

Then, seemingly out of nowhere, came the Wallace-Artest-Allen three point barrage, followed by Vujacic's free throws and Artest's wonderfully implausible postgame interview with Doris Burke that concluded with Burke nervously signing off as Artest talked about his upcoming album before apologizing and hugging her.

The Lakers' rebounding dominance in game seven--and the fact that the Celtics still have not lost a playoff series with their regular starting lineup intact--lends credence to the idea that Perkins' absence played a role in the final outcome but it is only fair to hasten to emphasize again that Bryant was far from 100% physically during the playoffs and Lakers' starting center Andrew Bynum is already scheduled to have surgery to repair the right knee injury that he suffered during the first round; I am confident that the Lakers would have been willing to face a fully healthy Perkins with a fully healthy Bryant and Bynum. The reality is that injuries are a part of the game, so you cannot single out Perkins' injury as a critical factor without acknowledging the injuries that the Lakers overcame.

Postscript #1: Debunking "Advanced Basketball Statistics"

"Stat gurus" can pump up Gasol all that they want--and I am sure that they will insist that Gasol deserved the Finals MVP--but the reality is that Gasol's skill set has not changed much since Gasol played for Memphis; in the past couple years, Gasol has added some muscle and lost some explosiveness but his game has not changed very dramatically: the two main statistical categories in which he has improved as a Laker--field goal percentage and offensive rebounding--are connected in large part to the defensive attention that Bryant draws. It is important to remember that Gasol had not won a single playoff game--never mind a series--in six full seasons prior to teaming up with Bryant.

One of the few writers who does not buy into the Gasol hagiography is Kevin Ding. After game five he wrote an excellent account of Gasol's failures in the clutch as a Laker, noting that Gasol has repeatedly disappeared in big playoff games, particularly on the road. Gasol certainly played better in games six and seven than he did in game five but games six and seven took place at home with Perkins out of the lineup for all but five and a half minutes. Gasol is stronger and tougher than he was two years ago and he is certainly a highly skilled All-Star big man but it should be obvious that the Celtics' defense focused on Bryant during this series, not Gasol. Gasol did just enough in this series for the Lakers to win but that is no reason to get carried away and suggest that he is greater than he actually is; it is not an insult by any means to call Gasol an All-NBA Third Team level player, because that means that he is one of the 15 best players in the league.

The difference between statistical analysis of baseball and statistical analysis of basketball is that a baseball game consists of a series of discrete interactions and the result of each of those interactions can be accurately recorded and quantified; in contrast, a basketball game consists of 10 players in constant motion, so when something happens--a shot, a rebound, a steal, etc.--it is not so easy to correctly apportion credit/blame on an individual level. There may be some legitimate value in looking at "advanced" basketball statistics on a team level--i.e., using a statistically significant sample size to determine the relative effectiveness of various five man units. If Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen simply played one on one then their "player ratings" would be absolutely accurate; in fact, we would not even need "player ratings" because we could just look at the final score. However, the NBA game is not a one on one game: it is a five on five game and within that five on five game there are at times various two on two and three and three "games within the game." Several of the traditional statistics--including assists, steals, blocked shots, turnovers and even rebounds--are subjective to some degree, so it really is folly (or arrogance) to declare that there is a way to create a formula that combines those numbers together to produce a very accurate individual "player rating." I am not a statistical Luddite; I think that it is great to attempt to create such ratings but what I object to is when some "stat gurus" act like they have finished a job that they really have only just begun. The margin of error of the various "player ratings" is so great that they can tell us stuff we could figure out on our own--LeBron James is better than Danny Green--but they are not very useful in determining the answers to more difficult questions, such as how to correctly rank the league's 10 best players.

Postscript #2: Doc Rivers is a Great Coach

Boston's Doc Rivers did a brilliant coaching job this season; four-time Indy 500 Champion Rick Mears once said "to finish first you first have to finish" and that is an apt way of explaining Rivers' philosophy regarding the 2009-10 regular season: Rivers understood that the Celtics are an aging team, so he carefully monitored the minutes of the "Big Three" of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen with the idea of nursing those players along so that they would be fully functional come playoff time. This approach paid off as the Celtics upset the teams with the top two records--Cleveland and Orlando--en route to returning to the NBA Finals.

Rivers is not just a good coach, he is a great coach and he has done a tremendous job inspiring and motivating the Celtics. He did not just recently become a great coach, either; he earned the 1999-2000 Coach of the Year award after leading the undermanned "Heart and Hustle" Orlando Magic to a 41-41 record. I hate to link to garbage but if you wonder why I have often said that Bill Simmons is an entertainment columnist (and he is genuinely funny--sometimes), not a competent NBA analyst, then just read the first line of What's Up, Doc?: "Doc Rivers stinks as an NBA coach" (later in that same article, Simmons absurdly declared, "Kobe is an inherently selfish guy"). While that particular piece of nonsense is an old article, this is not old news: Simmons grumbled about Rivers' coaching this season even as Rivers was doing everything in his power to set the Celtics up for a good playoff run. Simmons should be doing standup comedy somewhere but instead ESPN/ESPN.com/other ESPN platforms pass him off as someone who has deep, meaningful insights about sports. It is glaringly obvious why most media members refrain from speaking the truth about Simmons and other writers from the self-proclaimed World Wide Leader: they are fearful that speaking out might damage their careers. I give the L.A. Times' Mark Heisler a lot of credit for penning this blistering and honest appraisal of Simmons:

For a fan's perspective, we have ESPN's Bill Simmons, who predicted the first-round demise of his Celtics ("a decrepit, non-rebounding, poorly coached, dispirited, excuse-making, washed-up sham.")

Three rounds later, born again as a diehard fan, Simmons big-footed himself a second-row seat with the press corps 20 rows back, insisting he needed it to do his job, which consisted entirely of posting precious comments during games.

Maybe the wireless reception is better in the second row.

With his great view, Simmons railed about the Celtics' Game 3 loss, citing fixer Tim Donaghy's warning that games could be fixed and ripping (heavenly music) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady for joking with Kobe Bryant afterward.

In other words, the event exists to give Simmons a vehicle to displace anger in an entertaining manner, which explains his stardom and the fact he'll be cited by future archaeologists as an example of where 21st century society veered off.

Postscript #3: Kobe Bryant's Finals Resume

I compiled Kobe Bryant's NBA Finals resume prior to last year's NBA Finals, so that document needs some updating now: Bryant has added two championships and two Finals MVPs.

It is odd that so much is made of the fact that Bryant's teams have twice lost in the Finals; perhaps Bryant receives this particular criticism because he is so often compared to Michael Jordan and a major part of Jordan's mystique is that he went 6-0 in the NBA Finals (though Jordan did play all or part of nine other NBA seasons during which he did not win a championship). Not enough is made of the fact that Bryant's teams have reached the Finals seven times in 14 seasons (and Bryant was only a full-time starter in 12 of those seasons); that is quite an accomplishment. Check out the Finals won/loss records of some of the greatest players in pro basketball history (this is not meant to be a comprehensive list of all of the league's greatest players or greatest champions, so don't have a fit if "your" guy was left out):

Bill Russell, 11-1

Sam Jones, 10-1

John Havlicek, 8-0

Bob Cousy, 6-1

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 6-4

Michael Jordan, 6-0

Scottie Pippen, 6-0

Kobe Bryant, 5-2

Magic Johnson, 5-4

Tim Duncan, 4-0

Shaquille O'Neal, 4-2

Larry Bird, 3-2

Julius Erving, 3-3 (2-0 in the ABA, 1-3 in the NBA)

Wilt Chamberlain, 2-4

The Boston Celtics own the first four spots on this list. Bill Russell was the dominant player on each of his 12 teams that made it to the Finals. Sam Jones began his career as a reserve behind Hall of Fame guards Bob Cousy and Bill Sharman; Jones eventually became Boston's number one offensive option but he was never a more important/dominant player than Russell. Havlicek began his career as a sixth man, emerged as an All-Star and was the best player on Boston's 1974 championship team when he won the Finals MVP, though that squad also had Dave Cowens, the 1973 regular season MVP. Havlicek was the fourth leading scorer during the regular season for the 1976 Boston team that won the championship.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the dominant player on most of his teams that advanced to the Finals; you could argue that even though Magic Johnson won the 1980 and 1982 Finals MVPs he did not completely supplant Abdul-Jabbar until the Lakers won the 1987 championship (Abdul-Jabbar won the 1985 Finals MVP and he played a huge role during each of the Lakers' previous trips to the Finals).

Michael Jordan was the best player during each of the Bulls' six championships, though Scottie Pippen gave him a run for his money for Finals MVP on a couple occasions; when Jordan received the MVP after the 1997 Finals, he said to Pippen, "You're MY MVP" and then added, "Scottie Pippen and I--we're a tandem. It's hard to split us up. He means a lot to me when I go out to play on the basketball court. He relieves a lot of the pressure that I have to deal with. I try to do the same for him. It's hard to take this MVP by myself. I'll take the trophy. He may get the car."

Magic Johnson won three Finals MVPs but he also played on two championship teams when other players (Abdul-Jabbar, James Worthy) won Finals MVPs.

Larry Bird won two Finals MVPs but during his first championship run Cedric Maxwell won that honor and Maxwell also had a huge game seven performance in the 1984 Finals (24 points, eight rebounds, eight assists).

Julius Erving won the Finals MVP twice in the ABA and was clearly the best player on the 76ers during their first three Finals runs in the late 1970s and early 1980s; Moses Malone won the Finals MVP when the 76ers took the title in 1983, though Erving was still a First Team All-NBA player and a top five finisher in regular season MVP balloting.

Wilt Chamberlain won one Finals MVP and surely would have won another one if the award had existed in 1967 when he led the 76ers to the championship; Jerry West won the very first Finals MVP in 1969 when the Chamberlain-West-Elgin Baylor Lakers lost to the Russell-Havlicek Celtics.

Kobe Bryant now stands above all of his contemporaries as an NBA champion: he has won five championships, one more than Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan. Bryant was an All-NBA Second Team player during his first two championship runs when O'Neal was clearly the team's best player but by 2002 Bryant was an All-NBA First Teamer and top five finisher in MVP voting, much like Erving in 1983. Duncan's 4-0 Finals record and three Finals MVPs are certainly impressive but Bryant has been a key player on two separate repeat championship squads, a feat that no one has accomplished since Jordan and Pippen did that in the mid-1990s.

Championship rings are not the only way to evaluate all-time greats and Kobe Bryant still seemingly has several years left to accumulate more individual and team accomplishments--but it is clear that by any reasonable standard he already ranks very highly in pro basketball's pantheon.

Labels: Andrew Bynum, Boston Celtics, Derek Fisher, Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Pau Gasol, Paul Pierce, Phil Jackson, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Ron Artest

posted by David Friedman @ 6:00 AM

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