20 Second Timeout

Bam Adebayo's Scoring Outburst Highlights Why Tanking is Terrible

On April 9, 2023, I declared, "The toxic combination of tanking and load management cheats the fans who buy tickets to see their favorite players, compromises the integrity of playoff seeding, devalues individual and team statistics, and creates a host of issues regarding legalized wagering" (emphasis added). 

There are many examples of inflated/devalued statistics, but the tragicomical farce perpetrated by the Miami Heat--and their partners in crime, the perpetually tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards"--tonight is Exhibit A: Bam Adebayo scored 83 points on 20-43 field goal shooting and 36-43 free throw shooting as Adebayo's Heat won, 150-129. Adebayo made just seven of the 22 three pointers that he jacked up, and he scored six points--all on free throws--in the final two minutes with the Heat leading by 25 or more points. Officially, Adebayo now owns the second highest single game scoring output in NBA history, surpassing Kobe Bryant (81 points) and trailing only Wilt Chamberain's legendary 100 point game. Unofficially, this travesty--this "traveshammockery" (travesty, sham, and mockery)--should have a giant asterisk next to it, and that asterisk should include a picture of Adam Silver's face wearing clown makeup.

The "Wheeze-hards" gave up 40 first quarter points on .542 field goal shooting, with Adebayo scoring 31 points on 10-16 field goal shooting; their only goal is to lose, and they achieved that goal in a spectacularly disgraceful manner. Perhaps the Wizards assumed that the Heat would call off the dogs once the outcome was no longer in doubt, but by that point Adebayo was so close to surpassing Bryant that the Heat began force-feeding him the ball. Even tanking teams apparently have some standards, so the "Wheeze-hards" began focusing all of their meager efforts on not letting Adebayo score, and then the Heat began fouling to get the ball back and missing non-Adebayo free throws on purpose to generate more shot attempts for Adebayo. 

The "Wheeze-hards" have been tanking for several years and have made the playoffs just once since 2018 (2021, when Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double for the fourth time in his extraordinary and often underrated career. Adam Silver should relegate the "Wheeze-hards" and other tanking teams to the G League and should forbid the tankers from receiving the national TV revenue that teams share. I know that he will not do that--for a variety of reasons--but drastic measures must be taken to prevent the NBA from degenerating into a complete farce.

How absurd is it that Adebayo scored 83 points in an NBA regular season game? Adebayo's previous career high was 41 points in a 128-124 Heat loss versus the Brooklyn Nets on January 23, 2021; that was one of just four times that he scored at least 35 points in a game in the first 624 regular season games of his NBA career. 

Luka Doncic is a great player, but after he poured in 73 points in a game on the same day that Devin Booker scored 62 points, I called out the NBA for destroying the sport and the record book: 

Regular season NBA games are starting to resemble the NBA All-Star Game in terms of lack of defense/lack of competitive effort, and last year's NBA All-Star Game may have been the worst basketball game ever. Prior to Monday, there had been one day in ABA/NBA history during which two players had 60 point games--and now that has happened twice in five days. Pointing out such facts is not "hating." The NBA powers that be have drastically altered the game, and not for the better: instead of featuring the best athletes in the world competing at the highest level, the NBA has degenerated into a glorified skills exhibition. I have attended dozens if not hundreds of NBA games in person as a credentialed media member or as a fan, and I have seen firsthand that even "non shooters" in the NBA can shoot an absurd percentage on uncontested warmup shots; this helped me to understand how great NBA defense is (or was). With all due respect to Doncic, in his 73 point game he shot .850 from the field on shots that were not much more difficult than warmup shots.

The modern NBA has lowered the bar competitively, which devalues each game and cheapens the record book.

Less than two months ago, I wrote about how much the NBA has changed for the worse in the 20 years since Kobe Bryant's 81 point game: 

The rules changes and style of play changes from the past 20 years suggest that the NBA decided that fans have such short attention spans and so little appreciation for the nuances of the game that the only way to keep them interested is to transmogrify the sport from a game of ball movement and player movement featuring diverse offensive strategies into a one dimensional game during which teams jack up as many three pointers as possible; three point field goal percentages have not improved in the past 20 years, but the volume of three point shooting has more than doubled. "Stat gurus" may believe that high volume three point shooting is inherently efficient, but shooting twice as many treys at less than a .360 clip while eschewing midrange shots and shots in the paint does not add up to efficient basketball, nor does it create aesthetically pleasing basketball. 

At its best, basketball is an all-around game featuring skillful offense balanced by shrewd, physical defense. The step back move as utilized by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry was a thing a of beauty. I used to practice it in my driveway while being careful to not take an extra step. In contrast to that technical artistry, what is called a step back move today is a travel and/or an offensive foul if basketball's rules were enforced as written. Commentators and fans scoff that old school players "had no bag" (did not have a bag of fancy ball handling moves), but the reality is that what is called a "bag" today includes traveling, carrying, palming, and flopping and flailing to bait referees into calling fouls against defensive players. No player epitomizes the NBA's emphasis on elevating offense over defense more than James Harden, who literally "traveled" through the NBA's record book thanks to the generous whistle that he received during his prime years. 

Bryant scored 81 points in a game and averaged 35.4 ppg at a time when most NBA teams struggled to score 100 points per game; it is easy to picture prime Bryant averaging at least 40 ppg in today's NBA, and the same should be said of Michael Jordan. Julius Erving's hands are so big that when he played he could catch a basketball with one hand and go up for a shot without touching the ball with his other hand; it is tantalizing to dream about the wonders that Erving would perform in today's game when defensive physicality on the perimeter has been eliminated while offensive players are permitted to do just about anything with the ball short of running from one end of the court to the other with no dribbles. Erving shot .343 from three point range in his final three ABA seasons, so it is easy to picture Erving becoming a successful, high volume three point shooter if that had been a point of emphasis during his career--and that would have made him impossible to guard in today's NBA, leaving defenders with the unenviable choice of watching him bury three pointers or watching him fly to the hoop to dunk without facing rim protectors.

I often think about Erving, and I lament how much the game has deteriorated since the era when he ruled the court (and the airspace above the court). Erving shares the ABA playoff single game scoring record (53 points) with Roger Brown, and Erving scored a career-high 63 points in a four overtime loss in 1975, but his NBA single game career high was a relatively modest 45 points. He could have scored a lot more points, but Erving did not chase personal glory or individual statistical achievements. I asked Erving about that, and he replied, "Putting your second team in when you're up a lot of points is really what you should do. I mean, those guys want to play, too. To just run it up to 125 so the crowd can get hamburgers or whatever, that’s not good," and then he added, "Yeah, putting a guy back in the game so he can get an assist for a triple double or whatever, that’s crass. It's just crass."

"Crass" is the perfect description for Bam Adebayo jacking up 22 three pointers and scoring 83 points in a 21 point blowout win versus the tanking "Wheeze-hards."

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 11:58 PM

19 comments

Nuggets Grind Out Game Five Win, Clinch Franchise's First Title

In a game during which most of the players seemed to be trudging through mud while hurling bricks at the hoop, Nikola Jokic carved out a masterpiece--28 points on 12-16 field goal shooting, 16 rebounds, and four assists--while leading the Denver Nuggets to a 94-89 win over the Miami Heat that clinched a 4-1 NBA Finals victory and the first championship in the franchise's 56 year history dating back to the ABA's first season (1967-68). Jokic won the NBA Finals MVP after averaging 30.2 ppg, 14.0 rpg, and 7.2 apg versus the Heat while shooting .583 from the field (including .421 from three point range) and .838 from the free throw line. Remember when the "experts" said that the Nuggets cannot win a game when Jokic "only" has four assists? Remember when the L.A. Lakers thought that they had "found something" by having Rui Hachimura guard Jokic? Hachimura versus Jokic was not a defensive scheme; that was unintentional comedy. Borrowing a line that then-Houston Coach Del Harris said about Julius Erving after Erving torched his Rockets, Hachimura could not have stopped Jokic with a hockey stick--but neither could anyone else: Jokic is the first player to lead the playoffs in scoring (600 points, 30.0 ppg), rebounding (269 rebounds, 13.5 rpg), and assists (190 assists, 9.5 apg), and he is the first player to log 10 triple doubles in one postseason. LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid participated in the 2023 playoffs, but Jokic left no doubt that he is the league's best player while outplaying James and Durant head to head as the Nuggets swept past the Lakers and blotted out the Suns en route to winning the championship.

As Jokic would be the first to emphasize, though, Denver's triumph was a team victory and not just a one man show. Michael Porter Jr. continued to struggle with his shooting (7-17 in game five), but he contributed 16 points and 13 rebounds. Jamal Murray shot poorly (6-15) and had six turnovers, but the Nuggets needed every one of his 14 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (11 points) and Bruce Brown (10 points) scored in double figures in a game in which each point was precious and hard-earned. Collectively, the Nuggets' defense, rebounding, and timely paint scoring wore down the Heat.

Jokic and Murray are the first duo in playoff history featuring players who each averaged at least 25 ppg, at least 5 rpg, and at least 5 apg. They are the third highest scoring playoff duo to win a title (56.1 ppg), trailing only Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal (59.8 ppg for the 2001 Lakers), and Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry (56.6 ppg for the 2017 Warriors).

No starter for either team other than Jokic made half of his field goal attempts in game five. Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 21 points, but he shot just 5-18 from the field. Bam Adebayo did as much as he could--finishing with 20 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 9-20 from the field--but Jokic's size and skill overwhelmed him by the end of the game: in the second half with the game up for grabs, Adebayo had two points on 1-7 field goal shooting while snaring just three rebounds as Jokic dominated with 19 points on 8-10 field goal shooting with eight rebounds.

The Heat led 51-44 at halftime, but that small margin should have provided little comfort for the Heat: the Nuggets missed many open shots--including 1-15 (.067) three point field goal shooting--and the Heat could not pull away. The Nuggets won the third quarter 26-20 as Jokic scored nine points and the Nuggets outscored the Heat 14-10 in the paint; unlike "analytically correct" teams, the Nuggets did not keep bricking three pointers and then say after a loss "We missed shots we normally make." No, the Nuggets exploited their size advantage to find a way to win as opposed to coming up with excuses to explain why they lost. 

"This is absolute mayhem right now," ABC analyst Van Gundy declared early in the fourth quarter with Denver clinging to a 79-76 lead. Van Gundy noted that there are "bodies strewn all over the floor" as both teams ramped up their defensive intensity. The game was ugly in terms of missed shots, but it was also beautiful in terms of two teams playing very hard.

The Nuggets outscored the Heat 24-18 in the fourth quarter--including 12-4 in the paint--and they seemed to be taking control after Jokic scored in the paint to give them an 83-76 lead with 4:43 remaining, but the resilient Heat had one more run left: Butler hit back to back three pointers, and then he made all three free throws after Aaron Gordon's groin fouled his foot (according to the referees, who made a bizarre call that was upheld even after a coach's challenge). The teams traded baskets until Bruce Brown's putback at the 1:31 mark put the Nuggets up for good. The Heat could have tried to extend the game by going for a quick two pointer but instead--as far too many teams do now--they went for an all or nothing three pointer that Butler missed. Some players and teams act as if the three point line is a fence around the paint instead of an option that can be utilized judiciously.

Other than Jokic, the Nuggets struggled to make shots all night long, but they outscored the Heat 60-44 in the paint and outrebounded the Heat 57-44. The Nuggets shot 5-28 (.179) from three point range, but they clinched their first championship because they attacked the paint on offense while playing excellent defense and completing their defensive possessions with rebounds. Yes, in the "pace and space" era the championship formula still includes paint scoring, defense, and rebounding.

Don't expect the "experts" to understand what they witnessed, or to be persuaded by the evidence. Amin Elhassan of Sirius XM NBA Radio recently declared that defense is overrated, a sentiment that is not surprising coming from someone who (1) worked as a scout for a team (Phoenix Suns) that did not play much defense and therefore never reached the NBA Finals despite being stocked with talented players, and who (2) no longer works as a scout but instead is paid to bash Russell Westbrook and denigrate Bob Cousy (which is not to suggest that every single thing Elhassan says is idiotic--at times he provides cogent basketball analysis--but it is to suggest that he spouts more nonsense than one would expect to be uttered by someone who brags about being an NBA "insider").

Shooting is important, and it is obvious that if no one makes a shot then a game would end in a 0-0 tie--but defense is based on effort and game plan discipline, so you can depend on defense to keep you in the game long enough so that one or two timely shots will decide the outcome.

The Nuggets proved to be the better team led by the best player, but both teams deserve praise and respect for their maturity, intelligence, and toughness. Asked what stuck out about the game's frantic final minutes, Butler--who scored 13 fourth quarter points as the Heat made their last stand--did not praise himself or complain that he needs more help. He said simply, "I turned the ball over." Then, given an opportunity to use an ankle injury that he suffered two rounds ago as an excuse, Butler stated flatly that his ankle is fine, that the Nuggets beat the Heat, and that there are no excuses. Butler does not have Pantheon-level talent, and he may never lead a team to an NBA title, but if I were an NBA player I'd go to battle with him any day: he's tough, he works hard, he gives effort at both ends of the court, and he's confident in his abilities but he makes no excuses when his team loses. I look at the teams that did not keep him around--most notably Minnesota and Philadelphia--and seriously question if organizations that do not value a player like Butler can win a championship as presently constructed.

The 2023 NBA Finals were a treat because we saw two professional teams conduct themselves in a professional manner. There were no histrionics, no cheap shots, no excuses, and no dudes acting like every bump or bruise may be a fatal blow to their health requiring pampering and "load management."

It all culminated with the best basketball player in the world winning his first NBA title and then stating, "The job is done and we can go home now." Jokid did not beg for respect. His play earned respect, and that was more than enough for him.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 AM

78 comments

Nuggets Never Trail in Second Half, Beat Heat 108-95 to Take 3-1 Lead

Aaron Gordon scored a game-high--and playoff career-high--27 points to pace a balanced scoring attack as the Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat 108-95 to take a 3-1 NBA Finals lead. Gordon shot 11-15 from the field, grabbed seven rebounds, and passed for six assists. The fourth overall selection in the 2014 NBA Draft has not just accepted a non-starring role--he is thriving as the third or fourth option who is capable of scoring 20 points or more in any given game. Gordon could be a 20-25 ppg scorer for a team that never wins anything of consequence, but he prefers being a contributor to a championship quality team instead of being a star for an irrelevant team; there are several high scoring NBA players who are sitting at home now who could learn from that example, assuming that they are more interested in winning an NBA title than in accumulating individual statistics and honors.

Nikola Jokic produced 23 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocked shots in what will undoubtedly be characterized as an "off" game or a "quiet" game, which is a tribute to the high standard of excellence that he has set for himself. Bruce Brown scored 21 points on 8-11 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench. Coach Michael Malone has shortened his bench, yet it seems that each game at least one bench player makes a major contribution. Jamal Murray had a masterful performance despite shooting just 5-17 from the field: he had a game-high 12 assists, and he did not commit a single turnover despite being trapped and blitzed throughout the game. Murray is the first player to have at least 10 assists in each of his first four NBA Finals games.

There may be some people who are surprised that the Nuggets won despite Jokic having "only" four assists, but the reality is that a team's success is rarely connected to an arbitrarily chosen statistic. The Nuggets' offense is remarkably consistent and efficient: they have scored between 104 and 109 points in each NBA Finals game, and they have shot between .494 and .520 from the field in each NBA Finals game--and those team numbers have not varied much even as Jokic's scoring output has ranged between 23 points and 41 points, with his assist totals ranging between four and 14.

The Nuggets won easily despite both Jokic and Murray shooting poorly because Jokic and Murray both had a significant positive impact in other ways; the Nuggets run smart, crisp offensive sets that take advantage of the extra defensive attention that Jokic and Murray draw, and that is why the Nuggets shot well overall despite both of their stars not shooting well. If you just look at boxscore statistics or even "advanced basketball statistics" then you will have trouble understanding and explaining what happened in this game--and you might even erroneously conclude that Gordon is the team's best player (or was the team's best player in game four). The Nuggets' offensive efficiency flows from Jokic and Murray; take them out, and everyone else would have to work much harder to score. Gordon may very well score even more points without Jokic and Murray, but his shooting percentage would be worse (he is a career .472 field goal shooter who has shot .500 or better in each of his seasons with the Nuggets). Murray's 5-17 field goal shooting is not equivalent to a James Harden "concert tour" because Murray took shots within the flow of the game and because Murray played in a way that enabled his teammates to be effective; in contrast, when Harden has a "concert tour" he is dribbling the air out of the ball while running an inefficient offense. It should also be noted that a "concert tour" field goal percentage is an aberration for Murray but a regular playoff occurrence for Harden.

Jimmy Butler had 25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in 45 minutes. It may not be fair to ask or expect him to do more, but it is evident that if he is not able to do more then this series will be over soon. Bam Adebayo added 20 points and 11 rebounds, but he shot 8-19 from the field and committed seven turnovers; he has had some excellent moments during this series and he is posting impressive scoring and rebounding numbers--but overall he is being devoured by Jokic's superior size, strength, and skill. Kyle Lowry had an excellent first half to help the Heat keep the score close, and then he went scoreless in 20 second half minutes, which is not surprising for a 37 year old point guard who is barely 6-0 tall; small, aging point guards are typically not leading the charge for championship teams, and it is too much to expect even a six-time All-Star/2019 NBA champion to do so. Lowry finished with 13 points and seven assists.

The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 37-34 after being destroyed on the boards in game three, but that small advantage was wiped out by larger disadvantages in turnovers committed (15-8) and field goal percentage (.494 versus .449).

This game had a back and forth flow in the first half before the Nuggets took command in the second half. The Nuggets led 18-11 with 2:11 remaining in the first quarter, but the Heat ended the quarter on a 10-2 run, taking a 21-20 lead on a Butler three pointer just before time ran out in the first quarter. The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 11-7 in the first quarter, and shot .500 from the field while holding the Nuggets to .316 field goal shooting. The momentum shifted shortly after Jokic turned his right ankle while stepping on Max Strus' foot. Jokic limped noticeably after that play, and he briefly went to the locker room to get his foot retaped after the first quarter. 

Jokic returned to action at the 7:50 mark of the second quarter with the score tied 30-30. He hit a deep three pointer on the next possession, and the Nuggets never trailed the rest of the way. Gordon and Jokic led the Nuggets with 16 first half points each. Butler topped the Heat with 14 first half points on 6-9 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high five first half assists. Lowry made a big impact in the first half with 13 points and four assists. The Heat attacked the paint much more aggressively than they did in game three, and they were rewarded with dunks, layups, and free throws. The Heat won the first half rebounding battle 18-16--but, despite the Heat playing about as well as they can play, the Nuggets enjoyed a 55-51 halftime lead.

Gordon made a nifty one handed bounce pass to Murray for a layup that put Denver up 65-55 at the 7:35 mark of the third quarter. Passing and unselfishness are contagious, and it is clear that the way that Jokic and Murray play has permeated this team. The Nuggets led 86-73 after three quarters, and they appeared to be poised to push that margin to 20 points--but the Heat kept battling, and then Jokic committed his fifth foul at the 9:24 mark of the fourth quarter. The Nuggets led 86-76 as Jokic went to the bench for the next 5:15, but while Jokic sat the Heat only shaved one point off of that margin; the Nuggets were up 96-87 when Jokic returned, and the Nuggets soon pushed that lead to 108-91 before coasting to victory. After the game, Coach Malone conceded that during the regular season the team's non-Jokic minutes often went "haywire," but he proudly noted that this has not been the case during the playoffs and it was not the case in this game.

The Heat are 2-6 since taking a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead versus the Boston Celtics, and--even though they will undoubtedly fight hard until the end--they may have run out of gas after making an improbable run from the Play-In Tournament to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets look fresh and focused. Their team offense is excellent, and their team defense is better than advertised, and better than it has been in recent memory; the mental lapses and breakdowns that they suffered during game two appear to be an aberration because in the other three Finals games the Nuggets have held the Heat to less than 100 points.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:24 AM

7 comments

Jokic Leads the Way as Nuggets Dominate Heat, Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

Nikola Jokic authored one of the most dominant all-around performances in NBA Finals history--32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists--as the Denver Nuggets led for the entire second half en route to winning 109-94 to take a 2-1 series lead. Jokic posted the first 30-20-10 stat line in NBA Finals history. Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are the only other players to post a 30-20-10 stat line in a playoff game, accomplishing the feat one time each. Jamal Murray had an outstanding game as well, scoring a game-high 34 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and tying Jokic for game-high honors with 10 assists. Jokic and Murray became the first teammates in NBA history--including regular season, playoff, and Finals games--to each have a 30-10-10 stat line in the same game. Jokic played 44 minutes and Murray played 45 minutes; their ability to be highly productive and efficient with little rest distinguishes them from so many players who "load manage" their way through games and entire seasons. Christian Braun scored 15 points on 7-8 field goal shooting in 19 minutes off of the bench, and Aaron Gordon contributed 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.

Anyone who stubbornly clings to the demonstrably false belief that "pace and space" and "range shooting" are the most important factors for building a championship team should note that in this game the Nuggets outscored the Heat 60-34 in the paint, outrebounded the Heat 58-33, and won by 15 points despite shooting just 5-18 (.278) from three point range. Jokic is a basketball artist with his footwork, fine-tuned passing, and shooting, but he is also physically overpowering--and he led the way as the Nuggets physically overpowered the Heat. Size matters in the NBA--a point that I have repeatedly made for the past two decades, and a point that continues to be true. In game two, the Nuggets missed many defensive assignments, and they did not fully exploit their size advantage, but in game three the Nuggets held the Heat to 34-92 field goal shooting (.370), including 11-35 (.314) from three point range.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 28 points on 11-24 field goal shooting. He had four assists and two rebounds. Butler played well, but he was the third best player on the court behind Jokic and Murray. Bam Adebayo had 22 points and a team-high 17 rebounds, but he shot just 7-21 from the field.  

Jokic set a dominant tone early, scoring 10 points and grabbing seven rebounds in the first quarter. The score was tied 24-24 after the first 12 minutes, and the Nuggets only led 53-48 at halftime despite enjoying significant advantages in field goal percentage (.477 to .391) and rebounding (28-21). The Heat stayed close with nearly perfect ballhandling, committing just one first half turnover while the Nuggets had five first half turnovers (not a terrible number, but those extra possessions helped the Heat to stay within striking distance). 

The Nuggets broke the game open in the third quarter as Jokic refuted the ridiculous notion that the Nuggets are not at their best when he is a prolific scorer. Jokic scored 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting to help the Nuggets outscore the Heat 29-20, including 18-4 in the paint. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat 17-3 as Jokic alone doubled the Heat's rebounding total; the Nuggets looked like the big brother dominating the little brother in a backyard game. 

The Nuggets had some fourth quarter lapses, but the Heat never cut the margin to less than nine points.

After game two, many media members promoted the false narrative that the Nuggets lost because Jokic scored more than 40 points while "only" having four assists. The reality is that the Nuggets have a historically great offense that has been remarkably consistent and effective during the regular season, the playoffs, and the first three games of the NBA Finals: the Nuggets scored 104 points on .506 field goal shooting in their game one win, they scored 108 points on .520 field goal shooting in their game two loss, and they scored 109 points on .512 field goal shooting in their game three win. The difference between their two Finals wins and their one Finals loss is defense. The Nuggets held the Heat to 93 points on .406 field goal shooting in game one and they held the Heat to 94 points on .370 field goal shooting in game three, but the Heat got loose for 111 points on .487 field goal shooting in game two.

If the Nuggets' game two defensive rotations had been just a little sharper, they would enjoy a 3-0 lead now and would be poised to complete a sweep on Friday night. In game three, the Nuggets proved that their game two mistakes were correctable--but, as we will all see as this series progresses, the Heat cannot fix what went wrong for them in game three, because that would require their players to become taller and stronger. The Heat are a scrappy and smart team that may find a way to win game four, but it will be very difficult for them to win three of the next four games.

Many commentators declared that Miami had the advantage in this series after winning game two, but in my game two recap I predicted a double digit Denver win in game three: "Am I surprised that Miami won game two? No--I foreshadowed this possibility in my series preview when I wrote, 'The Heat will fight until the end. They will win a couple games, possibly including one in Denver.' I expect that Denver will win at least one of the next two games in Miami before closing out the series in six games. I would not be surprised if Denver won game three by at least 10 points, nor would I be surprised if the series returns to Denver tied 2-2."

The reason that I give the Heat a puncher's chance to win game four is because there is a natural human tendency to have a bit of a letdown after retaking homecourt advantage with a dominant road win. The Heat will always play hard and smart regardless of how well they are shooting, so if the Nuggets relax a bit defensively then the Heat could win game four by a small margin--but if that happens then the Nuggets will win game five at home in commanding fashion, and close out the series in Miami in game six. If the Nuggets attack the paint on offense and play sound defense in game four then they will win to take a 3-1 lead before closing out the series in five games. 

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:12 AM

10 comments

Miami Dissects Denver's Defective Defense

The Miami Heat opened game two of the NBA Finals with a 10-2 run and withstood a furious Denver rally that put the Nuggets up 50-35 before outscoring Denver 36-25 in the fourth quarter to win 111-108 and tie the series at 1-1. Gabe Vincent scored a team-high 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo each added 21 points. Butler shot just 7-19 from the field, but he had a team-high nine assists plus four rebounds while also playing excellent defense versus Jamal Murray. Adebayo shot 8-14 from the field while contributing nine rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 14 points while making four three pointers after shooting 0-10 from the field in game one. Duncan Robinson scored all 10 of his points in the decisive fourth quarter.

Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra inserted Kevin Love in the starting lineup in place of Caleb Martin, who scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting in game one. Love grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds and had a +18 plus/minus number in 22 minutes. Love not only contributed on the boards, but he enabled the Heat to favorably change their defensive matchups; he guarded Aaron Gordon--who feasted on smaller Heat defenders in the first quarter of game one--and this enabled Butler to check Murray. After starring in the Eastern Conference Finals, Martin still has not found his shooting stroke in the NBA Finals, scoring three points on 1-3 field goal shooting in game two; it will be interesting to see if Martin shoots better after the series shifts to Miami, and it will be interesting to see if Spoelstra makes additional rotation changes if Martin continues to struggle.

The Heat shot 17-35 (.486) from three point range after shooting 13-39 (.333) from beyond the arc in game one. The Nuggets survived giving up some open three point shots that the Heat missed in game one, but in game two the Nuggets' defense became worse and Miami punished most of Denver's lapses. The Nuggets conceded wide open three pointers to the Heat's best three point shooters, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope committed two fouls on three point shots en route to fouling out. The Nuggets' defense was awful in the first few minutes, improved a bit after that, and then collapsed in the fourth quarter when the Heat scored 36 points on 11-16 (.688) field goal shooting, including 5-9 (.556) from three point range. 

The Nuggets shot 39-75 (.522) from the field, won the rebounding battle 38-31, and only committed two more turnovers than the Heat (13-11), but their porous defense was too much to overcome. Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 41 points on 16-28 field goal shooting, and he snared a game-high 11 rebounds. Much will be made of the fact that he had four assists--less than half his average--and we will no doubt spend the next three days hearing that the Heat made a masterful "adjustment" by turning Jokic into a scorer instead of being a passer, but the reality is that the Nuggets lost this game because of defensive breakdowns. Coach Michael Malone mentioned this during his timeouts and during his postgame press conference, when he called his team's defensive performance "disappointing" and "perplexing." Anyone who watched the game with understanding could see that the Nuggets lacked game plan discipline, as displayed by poor (or non-existent) closesouts to open shooters, switches that left shooters open, senseless fouls, and poor defensive positioning that conceded easy straight line drives to the hoop. 

In game two, the Nuggets scored more points than they did in game one while also shooting better from the field, the three point line, and the free throw line than they did in game one; there is not a logical, plausible argument that the Heat won game two because they "adjusted" their defense to make Jokic into a scorer and thus negatively impacted Denver's overall offensive efficiency: such an assertion is typical of the false narratives promoted by media members who do not understand how to analyze basketball. Nuggets not named Jokic shot .489 from the field in game two after shooting .478 from the field in game one. Common sense suggests that when a team's best scorer attempts a lot of shots and shoots a good percentage that will increase his team's offensive efficiency, and that is what happened in game two.

Jamal Murray scored 18 points on 7-15 field goal shooting while dishing for a game-high 10 assists. Aaron Gordon (12 points) and Bruce Brown (11 points) also scored in double figures. Ideally, Michael Porter Jr. would score more than five points on 2-8 field goal shooting, but overall the Nuggets' offense did enough to win the game, which is why Denver led 83-75 heading into the fourth quarter. Denver's fourth quarter offense (25 points on 9-16 field goal shooting) was solid, but--as noted above--Miami's fourth quarter offense was off of the charts.

Despite their awful defense, the Nuggets had possession of the ball trailing by three points with 11.4 seconds remaining. The trailing team should do everything possible to extend the game, so it would have been logical to call a timeout, advance the ball, and run a quick-hitting play. Ideally the play would result in a three point shot, but a two pointer in three seconds or less would have been acceptable, because the Nuggets could have fouled and then had another possession down by one, two, or three points (depending on how many free throws the Heat made after Denver fouled). An out of bounds play involving screens to free two three point shooters while also sending a backdoor cutter to the hoop would have forced the Heat to both defend the paint and also contest a possible three point shot attempt. Even if the Nuggets could not get an open three point shot out of the timeout, in a best case alternative scenario the Nuggets would score a backdoor layup, foul a poor free throw shooter who missed both free throws, call their last timeout, and then win the game with a two pointer. Instead, the Nuggets pushed the ball up the court, and time expired as Murray attempted a fadeaway three pointer contested by Butler; as ESPN's Tim Legler noted, if the Nuggets had run a set play out of a timeout they could have dictated matchups and switches instead of having Butler checking Murray, which Legler correctly deemed the least desirable matchup from Denver's perspective. It is surprising that none of the commentators--including Legler and Jeff Van Gundy, two of the best in the business--noted that Denver's late game strategy not only resulted in a bad matchup but also drained the clock instead of extending the game, which should always be the goal of the trailing team. Malone predictably said that the Nuggets got a good look--but that is not the point: in that situation it is important to get the best possible look AND preserve enough time to extend the game even if you miss. Letting the outcome of any game--let alone an NBA Finals game--be determined by a last second heave after you obtained possession with 11 seconds left is not the highest percentage option available. Running out the clock only makes sense if the score is tied, because then you want to have the last possession of the fourth quarter to either win or go to overtime.

The game was not decided in the last 11 seconds, though. The game was decided by Denver's poor defense, culminating in the fourth quarter meltdown. NBA playoff series are not determined by so-called "adjustments" such as "letting" the opposing team's best player score 41 points, nor are they determined by so-called momentum swings--as Danny Ainge once sagely noted, this is not the Tour de France, so the team that lost the previous game does not start out trailing in the next game. NBA playoff series are determined by the optimal exploitation of matchup advantages, and in this series the two most significant advantages favor the Nuggets: the Nuggets have the best player (Jokic), and the Nuggets have more size. Those advantages will wear down the Heat over the course of the series. Size matters in the NBA and that has not changed and will not change, no matter how often people rave about the value of shooting and "pace and space." Spoelstra knows this, which is why he put Love in the starting lineup so that his team would be bigger at the start of the game; the Heat lost game one in the early moments when the Nuggets built a big lead, and--despite the inevitable vicissitudes of a 48 minute game--the Heat won game two in the early moments when they built a big lead by establishing a physical tone that they maintained throughout the game.

Am I surprised that Miami won game two? No--I foreshadowed this possibility in my series preview when I wrote, "The Heat will fight until the end. They will win a couple games, possibly including one in Denver." I expect that Denver will win at least one of the next two games in Miami before closing out the series in six games. I would not be surprised if Denver won game three by at least 10 points, nor would I be surprised if the series returns to Denver tied 2-2.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Gabe Vincent, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:36 AM

7 comments

Jokic's Versatility Cools off Heat as Nuggets Win Game One of the NBA Finals

Before analyzing how well the Denver Nuggets played in their 104-93 victory over the Miami Heat in game one of the 2023 NBA Finals, it is important to emphasize that this is not Denver's first Finals appearance; the New York Nets defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the 1976 ABA Finals as New York's Julius Erving authored one of the greatest performances in playoff history, leading both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). At that time, only three other players had averaged more points in a Finals series (Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, and Jerry West), and 47 years later Erving's average still ranks sixth in Finals history. 

The Nuggets have a rich history dating back to the ABA that should be honored and recognized by the NBA and the NBA's media partners--as should all of the ABA's statistics and records. Three players from Denver's 1976 Finals team have been inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame--David Thompson, Dan Issel, and Bobby Jones--and Nikola Jokic is well on his way toward earning that honor. 

In game one versus the Heat, Jokic led both teams in scoring (27 points on 8-12 field goal shooting and 10-12 free throw shooting) and assists (14) while also grabbing 10 rebounds. Jokic broke Bill Russell's NBA Finals single game record for assists by a center as he posted his ninth triple double of the 2023 playoffs, extending his own record for most triple doubles in one postseason. Jokic presents a challenge that the Heat seem unlikely to be able to solve: when they guarded Jokic one on one, he killed them with his scoring in the post, but when they sent a second defender to harass Jokic then he dissected them with his passing. Jokic's ability to score, rebound, and pass at a high level wrecked any defense that Miami tried. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy repeatedly mentioned Jokic's great conditioning, and how that great conditioning enables Jokic to be dominant for all four quarters; that is a major factor that distinguishes two-time regular season MVP Jokic from 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid.

Jamal Murray continued his outstanding 2023 playoff run, finishing with 26 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds. Aaron Gordon added 16 points and six rebounds while playing great defense against Jimmy Butler. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 14 points and a game-high 13 rebounds as Denver's size overwhelmed Miami, resulting in a remarkable statistic: the Heat set an NBA playoff single game record by attempting just two free throws; it seemed as if Denver had a moat surrounding the paint on defense and an express lane leading to the paint on offense.

Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 26 points and 13 rebounds while dishing for five assists. Gabe Vincent scored 19 points and had five assists. Haywood Highsmith poured in 18 points on 7-10 field goal shooting in 23 minutes off of the bench, and backup point guard Kyle Lowry provided a lift with 11 points, five assists, and five rebounds.

However, Miami's two Eastern Conference Finals heroes--Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin--had forgettable games. Butler had 13 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists while compiling a game-worst -17 plus/minus number, and Martin scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting.

Is Butler wearing down? He began the 2023 playoffs with 35 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, and three steals as the Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks in game one, becoming just the fourth player to accomplish that stat line more than once in a playoff game since the NBA began tracking steals in 1974, joining Russell Westbrook (three times), Michael Jordan (twice), and LeBron James (twice). Butler scored at least 25 points while shooting at least .500 from the field in each of his first six games this postseason--tied with Bernard King (1984) and Michael Jordan (1992) for the fourth longest such steak ever behind only LeBron James (2017) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10 in 1970, nine in 1977)--but Butler has shot at least .500 from the field just once in his past 10 playoff games (including game one of the NBA Finals). After scoring at least 30 points in four of his first five playoff games in 2023, Butler has topped the 30 point barrier just once in his last 13 playoff games. 

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was very much the case in this game. The Nuggets outscored the Heat 29-20 in the first 12 minutes--including 20-6 in the paint--as Jokic scored just four points but shredded the Heat's defense with six assists. Gordon sliced the Heat to ribbons with his cuts to the hoop, scoring 12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The second quarter produced a similar score--30-22 in Denver's favor--but by different means, as the Heat did a better job protecting the hoop only to see the Nuggets shoot 4-5 from three point range. Unlike the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Nuggets do not "dribble, dribble, dribble" into contested jumpers; the Nuggets attack the paint, and create outside shots from their paint attacks. 

Near the end of the third quarter, the Nuggets pushed their lead to 84-60, but the Heat never quit, and they cut the margin to 96-87 with 2:34 remaining in the fourth quarter. Jokic was content to spend most of the game as a distributor, but in the fourth quarter as the Heat made their run he scored 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting to seal the deal.

Two reasons that the Heat ended up with the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference are anemic offense, and being an undersized team that has difficulty dealing with bigger players/bigger teams. Those are the reasons that I expected the Heat to lose to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics but--to the Heat's credit--they played much better in the Eastern Conference playoffs than they did during the regular season. The Heat are unlikely to grow prior to game two, and the Nuggets are unlikely to shrink. The Heat can attack the hoop more aggressively, and they can more frequently target Jokic's defense by involving him in the two man game at the top of the key; look for the Heat to do both of those things in game two, but also look for the Nuggets to play even better than they did in game one en route to taking a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Miami for games three and four.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, ABA, Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:03 AM

7 comments

Heat Outlast Knicks, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Barely a month ago, the 44-38 Miami Heat lost to the 41-41 Atlanta Hawks in the first game of the Play-In Tournament, forcing the Heat to win their next Play-In Tournament game to avoid missing the playoffs. The Heat beat the Chicago Bulls 102-91 to slip into the playoffs, but they seemed unlikely to make much noise in the postseason. Tonight, the Heat beat the New York Knicks 96-92 to win their second round series 4-2 and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. This may not be the most improbable playoff run in NBA history--it should be remembered that last season the Heat finished with the Eastern Conference's best record (53-29)--but it is on the short list. Jimmy Butler led the way with 24 points, but he shot just 7-22 from the field in a defensive struggle (or offensive quagmire, depending on your perspective) during which the Heat shot .402 from the field and the Knicks shot .380 from the field. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 9-20 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high nine rebounds. Max Strus contributed 14 points and six rebounds, while Kyle Lowry made a significant impact off of the bench with 11 points and a game-high nine assists.

Jalen Brunson completed one of the most prolific playoff series in Knicks' history (31.0 ppg) by scoring 41 points on 14-22 field goal shooting. Brunson joined Bernard King as the only players in the Knicks' storied history to score at least 30 points in four games in one playoff series. He played 45 minutes after playing all 48 minutes in New York's game five win. When Brunson was in the game, the Knicks' offense ran more smoothly than it did during his brief rest, even on possessions when he did not take the shot and did not make the assist pass. In the first half, the Knicks outscored the Heat by six points when Brunson was in the game, and the Heat outscored the Knicks by seven points when Brunson was not in the game, resulting in a 51-50 halftime lead for the Heat.

Julius Randle had a miserable shooting game, even by the low standard set by both teams: he shot just 3-14 from the field, finishing with 15 points and a team-high 11 rebounds. R.J. Barrett was even worse, managing just 11 points on 1-10 field goal shooting. Josh Hart scored his 11 points much more efficiently on 5-10 field goal shooting, but no other Knick scored in double figures. 

The Knicks raced to a 31-17 first quarter lead, but their anemic offense could not keep up that pace or maintain that margin; the Knicks scored just 19, 21, and 21 points in the final three quarters, and the Heat outscored them in each stanza. The Heat led 51-50 at halftime, and even though they never pushed that margin into double digits they also never trailed again.

Despite the disappointing ending--and contrary to the obnoxious wailing "Screamin' A" Smith does--this was a successful season for the Knicks: how many people would have predicted before the season that this squad would be playing in game six in the second round of the playoffs? The Knicks need to add some more scoring and playmaking to go to the next level, but a good foundation is in place because this team is well-coached, physical, and defensive-minded. If you listen to "Screamin' A"--and no one can blame you if don't--all you hear is him making infantile, immature rants about New York's players without giving any credit to Miami's defense and without providing any analysis about what actually happened during the game. The Heat trapped Brunson, angled the left-handed point guard to the right side of the court, and cut down his passing lanes, a task made easier because the Knicks do not have a reliable secondary playmaker and they do not have enough outside shooting to punish that kind of defense. Brunson did the best that he could do, but he needs a little more help. The Knicks did not get blown out, nor did they quit; they just came up a little short.

It is difficult to know what to make of the Heat, other than acknowledging that they are a rare proverbial "team nobody wants to face" that has lived up to that usually false designation. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach, and Jimmy Butler is a big-time player. Bam Adebayo is undersized but he is skilled and he plays hard. Kyle Lowry is an aging, undersized player with physical limitations, but he is very intelligent and he has a bulldog mentality. The Heat's role players understand their roles, accept their roles, and are prepared to perform every game. In retrospect, perhaps it is more surprising that the Heat had a mediocre regular season--injuries obviously had an impact, though they are showing the ability to overcome injuries during their playoff run--than that they are performing at a high level in the playoffs.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 PM

2 comments

Heat Push Knicks to Brink of Elimination With 109-101 Game Four Win

The Miami Heat barely made the playoffs, but now they are one win away from returning to the Eastern Conference Finals after beating the New York Knicks, 109-101. Jimmy Butler authored another efficient and productive performance with a team-high 27 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, a team-high 10 assists, six rebounds, two steals, and two blocked shots. Butler may not receive any All-NBA First Team votes this season, but if the NBA had an All-Playoffs First Team he would be on it in 2023. Bam Adebayo had a strong performance inside (23 points, game-high 13 rebounds), Max Strus provided outside firepower (16 points on 6-13 field goal shooting, including 4-10 from three point range), and Kyle Lowry continued to do an excellent job running the second unit (15 points, five rebounds, four assists).

The Knicks received strong performances from their three top players, but the rest of the team wilted under the Florida sun. Jalen Brunson had a game-high 32 points on 10-21 field goal shooting, and he ran the offense smoothly with a game-high 11 assists and just one turnover. R.J. Barrett added 24 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, bouncing back from his subpar game three outing (14 points on 5-16 field goal shooting). Julius Randle has struggled mightily throughout the 2023 playoffs after averaging a career-high 25.1 ppg during the regular season, but he had his best shooting game of this postseason (8-13), finishing with 20 points and nine rebounds before fouling out. The other Knicks combined to score just 25 points on 10-26 field goal shooting (.385).

In my game three recap, I concluded, "The Heat are missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, and Jimmy Butler is not at full strength, but every Heat player plays hard on every possession, and that has been the biggest difference in this series." Herro was the Heat's third leading scorer during the regular season (20.1 ppg), and Oladipo made valuable contributions off of the bench, but when players get injured the Heat make no excuses and they don't change the way that they play. "Next man up" is a cliche that every team adopts as a slogan when dealing with injuries, but the Heat live up to that notion, and they do it with several players who were not high profile prospects prior to being found and nurtured by the Heat. The Heat do not tank to get high draft picks; they scout for players who have potential, and then they develop that potential. What a novel and refreshing concept in an era when so many teams think that it is desirable and necessary to "tank to the top" (even though the evidence proves that tanking does not work). 

The Heat and Knicks both were not particularly impressive-looking squads during the regular season, but the Heat are finding their stride while the Knicks are realizing that a tough, playoff-tested team poses a much different challenge than an inexperienced team such as the Cleveland team that they dispatched in the first round.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Miami Heat, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:53 PM

4 comments

Celtics Lead Wire to Wire, Beat Heat in Game Seven to Advance to the NBA Finals

The 2022 Eastern Conference Finals featured high peaks and low valleys for both the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat, culminating in a game seven 100-96 win for the Celtics, who never trailed. This playoff series was as competitive and hard fought as it was unpredictable from game to game--and even quarter to quarter. The Celtics rode a 24-2 second half run to a road win in game five, but then Jimmy Butler scored 47 points in Miami's game six win on the road. 

In game seven, Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. He also had 10 rebounds, six assists, and just two turnovers while playing nearly 46 minutes. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart each added 24 points. Brown shot 8-15 from the field and had six rebounds and six assists. Smart shot 8-22 from the field with nine rebounds and five assists. Al Horford scored five points on 2-9 field goal shooting, but he snatched a game-high 14 rebounds, and he led the Celtics with a +10 plus/minus number. Tatum received the first annual Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. During the game, Tatum wore a purple and gold armband to honor Kobe Bryant, his favorite player, and Tatum mentioned Bryant upon accepting the MVP trophy. 

Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 35 points on 13-24 field goal shooting. He had nine rebounds, one assist, and one turnover while playing all 48 minutes. Whether or not you are a Heat fan, you have to respect Butler's effort level, his unselfish leadership, and his no excuse mentality. There are many players who have won regular season MVPs whose playoff resumes pale in comparison to Butler's. Bam Adebayo contributed 25 points on 12-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high 11 rebounds. Kyle Lowry was Miami's only other double figure scorer (15 points, 4-12 field goal shooting). Victor Oladipo, who provided a spark at various points throughout this series, had nine points on 4-12 field goal shooting, but he also posted a game-best +16 plus/minus number in 33 minutes.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that proved to be the case in game seven. The Celtics jumped out to leads of 6-0, 9-1, 12-3, and 20-7 in the opening stanza. They were up 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. The Celtics forced six turnovers and shot 12-24 (.500) from the field while holding the Heat to 7-20 (.350) field goal shooting. Tatum topped the Celtics in points (eight), rebounds (six), and assists (three) even though he shot just 3-9 from the field. Butler and Adebayo led the Heat with six first quarter points apiece.

Butler erupted for 18 second quarter points on 5-5 field goal shooting as the Heat trimmed the margin to 55-49 by halftime. The teams played to a virtual standstill in the third quarter, so the Celtics led 82-75 with 12 minutes left in regulation. Both teams struggled to make shots in the fourth quarter, as the Celtics managed just 18 points on 5-16 (.312) field goal shooting while the Heat had 21 points on 10-27 (.370) field goal shooting. The Celtics inched their lead to 98-85 after Smart converted a pair of free throws with 3:35 remaining, but the Heat are a never say die team, and they reeled off nine straight points to claw to within 98-96 with just under 51 seconds left. Smart missed a layup with 22 seconds remaining, Butler grabbed the rebound, burst downcourt, and fired up a three pointer with 16.6 seconds left. ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy questioned Butler's shot selection--arguing that Butler should have driven to the hoop in transition versus Horford--but Butler is a big shot maker even though he is not a great three point shooter. As Van Gundy also said, you have to live with that kind of shot from your best player, provided that you are willing to die with that kind of shot.

After the game, Butler said, "My thought process was go for the win, which I did. Missed a shot. But I'm taking that shot. My teammates liked the shot that I took. So I'm living with it." 

Van Gundy and Butler are both right: analytically, Butler's three point shot may not have been the highest percentage play, but in the real world you ride or die with the rhythm shots that your best player takes. The Heat would not have been in position to win this series without Butler, and he had earned the right to go for the win. 

Smart closed out the scoring by making two free throws.

The Heat battled through injuries to post the best record in the Eastern Conference this season, and they had a shot to win game seven at home to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. If they are reasonably healthy next season then they will remain a top contender.

Redemption could be the theme for the Celtics' 2022 playoff run so far, as they have eliminated the teams that eliminated them in the last three postseasons: Milwaukee Bucks (2019), Miami Heat (2020), and Brooklyn Nets (2021). The Celtics won the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2010, after losing one round short of the NBA Finals in 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2020. The 2012 Celtics featured the last hurrah of the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Ray Allen trio, but Brown and Smart were on the 2017, 2018, and 2020 squads, while Tatum was a member of the 2018 and 2020 teams.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat

posted by David Friedman @ 4:07 AM

3 comments

Miami Steals Game Three in Boston to Reclaim Homecourt Advantage

It is sometimes said that a team stole a game, but rarely has that been as literally true as it was when Miami beat Boston 109-103 to take a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat set a franchise playoff single game record with 19 steals, and they were credited with 33 points scored off of 24 Boston turnovers. Whether you praise Miami for forcing those miscues or blame Boston for being careless with the ball, the simple fact is that the Heat generated over 30% of their offense as a result of Boston giving up the ball without even attempting a shot. Three Heat players had four steals each: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker added three steals, and Jimmy Butler had two steals in just 19 minutes before a recurring knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the game. On the other side, Jaylen Brown led Boston with seven turnovers, and Jayson Tatum had six turnovers. 

Adebayo not only tied for game-high honors in steals, but he also led the Heat in scoring (31 points), rebounds (10), and assists (six) while shooting 15-22 from the field in a team-high 41:30 of playing time. P.J. Tucker (17 points) and Max Strus (16 points) were Miami's next two scorers. Oladipo scored just five points on 1-4 field goal shooting), but he played excellent defense, particularly against Brown.

The Celtics outrebounded the Heat 44-34, and they outshot the Heat from the field (.486 to .467), but those advantages were not quite enough to compensate for the Celtics' sloppy ballhandling. Brown scored a playoff career-high 40 points on 14-20 field goal shooting, and he ranked second on the team with nine rebounds. Al Horford added 20 points and a game-high 14 rebounds. Marcus Smart had 16 points and a game-high seven assists before fouling out with less than 40 seconds remaining in the game. Tatum struggled not only with turnovers but also with poor shooting as he scored just 10 points on 3-14 field goal shooting. It is difficult to win an NBA playoff game when your best player has twice as many turnovers as field goals made. To his credit, Tatum accepted full responsibility for his poor performance, declaring after the game, "Six turnovers and no field goals in the second half--that is unacceptable. Honestly, I've got to play better. I feel like I left the guys hanging tonight. That's on me."

If anyone still believes that there is momentum in a playoff series that carries over from game to game, the Heat shot holes in that notion by outscoring the Celtics 39-18 in the first quarter after being blown out by the Celtics in game two. The Heat annihilated the Celtics in the paint during the first 12 minutes, scoring 20 paint points on 10-15 field goal shooting while holding the Celtics to two paint points on 1-9 field goal shooting.

Early in the second quarter, the Heat extended their lead to 46-20 before the Celtics rallied to slash the margin to 62-47 by halftime. The third quarter was a 25-25 draw, but the wheels fell off for the Heat for most of the fourth quarter; the Celtics outscored the Heat 20-6 in the first 9:20 to pull within 93-92, but Max Strus drilled a three pointer right before the shot clock expired, and the Heat did not look back the rest of the way.

This series has been very disjointed in terms of levels of play and in terms of players missing action due to health/injury issues. For the Celtics, Al Horford and Marcus Smart were out, but now they are back. Robert Williams III has been in and out of the lineup. For the Heat, Kyle Lowry missed the first two games of this series (and the last four playoff games overall) before having a solid performance (11 points, six assists) in game three. Jimmy Butler has been battling recurring knee soreness throughout the playoffs, and the ailment limited him to eight points on 3-8 field goal shooting in game three. Tyler Herro spent the closing moments of game three on the sidelines with a big wrap on his thigh. 

Side note: I hope that all of the injured players become fully healthy as quickly as possible, but the spectacle of players being carried off of the court or helped off of the court as if they are mortally wounded only to run back onto the court minutes later is more than a bit odd. I prefer the Chris Spielman mantra that if he ever had to be helped off of the playing field then he would retire, and I could do without the excess drama. This kind of drama is one reason that people sometimes question how today's players would fare in previous eras during which more physical contact was not only allowed but encouraged. As I once noted, if Anthony Davis lived by Spielman's code then "he either would have retired many years ago, or he would have reacted differently to the various non-career threatening injuries that he has experienced."

It is difficult to anticipate what will happen in game four when it is not clear which players will play, and to what extent injuries will hinder the afflicted players if they do play. At full strength, I would still take Boston over Miami, but it does not seem that this series will be decided with either team at full strength.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Victor Oladipo

posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

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Boston Versus Miami Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Boston (51-31) vs. #1 Miami (53-29)

Season series: Boston, 2-1

Miami can win if…the Heat can contain Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without unleashing the Celtics' three point shooters. When the Celtics faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, the Bucks elected to protect the paint and dare the Celtics to beat them from beyond the arc, which resulted in the Celtics setting a game seven record with 22 three pointers, including seven by Grant Williams. In contrast, despite having to contend with Joel Embiid in the paint for four games in a six game series, the Heat held the Philadelphia 76ers to .337 three point field goal shooting in the second round. 

Jimmy Butler has been one of the top performers in the 2022 playoffs. He is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (28.7 ppg), assists (5.4 apg), and steals (2.1 spg). He ranks second on the team in playoff rebounding (7.6 rpg), trailing Bam Adebayo by just .1 rpg. Adebayo is second on the team in playoff scoring (14.6 ppg) and steals (1.2 spg) while ranking first among the team's main rotation players in field goal percentage (.594). Tyler Herro has struggled at times during the postseason, but he is contributing 13.8 ppg (down from 20.7 ppg in the regular season). Injuries have forced All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry to miss six of the Heat's 11 playoff games. It seems unlikely that he will be healthy enough to have a major positive impact during this series.

Boston will win because…as much as this may sound like a cliche, the Celtics are peaking at the right time. They started the season slowly, but in the second half of the season they emerged as a championship contender. Other teams feared facing the Brooklyn Nets, but the Celtics not only embraced the possibility of that matchup but they swept the Nets. The Celtics then won a grueling seven game series against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.

Jayson Tatum has all the necessary tools to be an MVP: size, scoring ability from all areas of the court, rebounding, defense, ballhandling, passing. He has not won an MVP because (1) his statistics are good but not overwhelming, and (2) he does not have a signature playoff moment, let alone a championship. Defeating Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in back to back series greatly enhances Tatum's playoff resume. An NBA title would complete that resume.

Other things to consider: The Heat are an outstanding defensive team, but they are mediocre offensively and they can be bothered by size. The Heat beat the Celtics 4-2 in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals held in the Orlando bubble, but the 2022 Celtics have more size (most notably Al Horford) and depth than the 2020 Celtics. 

The Celtics have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six years, but that accomplishment has flown under the radar because this version of the Celtics has yet to make it to the NBA Finals, let alone win a championship. The NBA has a level of built-in parity such that it is possible for a team to make a fluky one to the Conference Finals without being an elite team that sustains that level of success; recent examples include James Harden's Houston Rockets, and Trae Young's Atlanta Hawks (the Hawks may prove me wrong, but I doubt it). 

A star player or star duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals will likely be remembered decades later, particularly if that team wins at least one championship during that run. In my time following the NBA, such teams include Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers (seven Conference Finals appearances, one NBA championship--including two CF appearances and one NBA championship playing alongside Moses Malone), Larry Bird's Boston Celtics (eight CF appearances, three NBA championships), the Magic-Kareem L.A. Lakers (10 CF appearances, five NBA championships--including one CF appearance after Kareem retired), Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons (five CF appearances, two NBA championships), the Jordan-Pippen Chicago Bulls (eight CF appearances, six NBA championships), the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (five CF appearances, three NBA championships; Kobe then made three CF appearances and won two NBA championships without Shaq), the ensemble Pistons (six CF appearances, one NBA championship), the James-Wade Heat (four CF appearances, two NBA championships), the James Cavaliers (four CF appearances, one NBA championship; James also made two CF appearances in his first tour of duty with the Cavaliers), and the ensemble Warriors (six CF appearances, three NBA championships--including three CF appearances and two NBA championships with Kevin Durant leading the team).

If the Celtics or Heat win an NBA championship (either this year, or in the next few years with the same stars), that will change their place in history; it is the difference between being teams like the 1980s Bucks or 1990s Cavaliers that were very good but never got over the hump, and being a team that is always remembered not only for winning a title but for having a stretch of sustained excellence. Erving's 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83, but if they had not won the 1983 NBA championship they would not be remembered the way that they are remembered now. Whether or not that is the way things should be, that is the way things are, so there is a lot of legacy at stake for both teams. If nothing changes, the 2020s Celtics and 2020s Heat will be lightly remembered as really good teams that did not quite have "it." One championship shifts the narrative.

Before the playoffs began, I picked Milwaukee to win the NBA championship, and I still think that the Bucks would have won the title if not for the Khris Middleton injury, so it is logical for me to now pick the team that beat the Bucks. That being said, I expect this series to be closely contested, and played at a high level. Erik Spoelstra has already established himself as a Hall of Fame caliber coach, while Boston's Ime Udoka has been very impressive in his first season as an NBA head coach.

Boston will win in six games. 

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 7:46 PM

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Embiid and Harden Lead the Way as 76ers Tie Heat Series at 2-2

Is the James Harden "concert tour" over, or was it just postponed for one night? After shooting .385 from the field in the first three games of Philadelphia's second round playoff series versus Miami with field goal numbers that looked like concert tour dates (5-13, 6-15, 4-11), James Harden scored a team-high 31 points on 8-18 field goal shooting as the 76ers beat the Heat 116-108 to tie the series at 2-2. Harden also had seven rebounds plus a game-high nine assists. The only major blemish on his boxscore line is that he coughed up six turnovers. In the fourth quarter, Harden scored 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and he did not commit any turnovers. In the first three games of this series, Harden scored 10 second half points while shooting 3-14 from the field (.214), including 0-8 from three point range. It is not good when a player's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates and when his field goal percentage would not even be a good batting average.

Harden's game four numbers and the highlight videos of his big plays are important things to remember and consider, because they refute the "James Harden is old and should be cut a lot of slack for declining numbers" narrative that has become so popular. No, Harden is still able to get to the hoop, he is still able to create separation, and he is still capable of making shots, which means that if he fails to do those things moving forward then no excuses should be offered on his behalf.

Of course, it is easier for the little brother to be assertive when the big brother is nearby to maintain order. The 76ers' MVP candidate Joel Embiid missed the first two games of this series after suffering a concussion and an orbital fracture in their first round game six win versus Toronto, but Embiid made a major difference in Philadelphia's game three victory, and he was even more dominant in Philadelphia's game four win (24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds). Embiid shuts down the paint defensively, and he is a scoring machine in the paint offensively; his presence distorts Miami's offense while enhancing Philadelphia's offense not only with his own efficient shooting but also by creating space to make life easier for the team's perimeter shooters (including Harden).

Jimmy Butler poured in a game-high 40 points on 13-20 field goal shooting and he dished for six assists, but he did not receive nearly enough help. Bam Adebayo had solid numbers (21 points, seven rebounds, four assists), but Embiid outplayed him by a wider margin than the boxscore numbers suggest.

Embiid set the tone in the first quarter with 15 points on 5-6 field goal shooting while Harden did not score, but in the second period Harden scored 13 points on 3-4 field goal shooting while Embiid was scoreless. The roles flipped again in the third quarter as Embiid scored nine points while Harden scored two points, and then in the fourth quarter Harden scored 16 points while Embiid did not score. This is the kind of dynamic duo, tag team performance that the 76ers hoped to see during most games after trading for Harden--and this is also one home win by a team that must win in Miami to advance to the next round. The standard for superstar excellence used to be consistently great performance, not one very good game every once in a while.

I picked Miami to win this series in five games if Embiid did not play, and Miami to win this series in six games if Embiid played. My expectations have not changed; I believe that Miami will win at home in game five, and then win a close game on the road in game six. Miami will shoot much better at home, while Philadelphia will not shoot as well, and then when the series shifts back to Philadelphia look for the Heat to be much more aggressive and active defensively than they were in game four; Embiid has a matchup advantage one on one versus any Heat player, so the best way to counter that is not just trapping, but very aggressive trapping that forces the 76ers to play faster and not take the shots that they would prefer to take.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:08 AM

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Heat Cruise by 76ers as the James Harden "Concert Tour" Wraps up in Miami

The Miami Heat used a balanced scoring attack, blazing three point shooting, and solid defense to defeat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 and take a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Philadelphia for the next two games. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting and he grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Jimmy Butler added 22 points on 8-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high 12 assists. Victor Oladipo (19 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (18 points on 6-10 field goal shooting) provided a huge lift off of the bench. The Heat outrebounded the 76ers 44-34, and the Heat shot 14-29 (.483) from three point range while holding the 76ers to 8-30 (.267) shooting from long distance.

With Joel Embiid sidelined for the second straight game (concussion protocol/orbital fracture), Tyrese Maxey poured in a game-high 34 points on 12-22 field goal shooting. Tobias Harris added 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting while also contributing four rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Neither Maxey nor Harris committed a single turnover. If only the 76ers had an MVP-caliber player who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team so that Maxey and Harris could be the second and third options, then the 76ers might have a real chance in this series even without Embiid.

Instead, the 76ers have a player whose resume is so fraudulent it should form the basis of a sequel to "Catch Me if You Can." James Harden's "concert tour" from the first game (5-13) continued as he set a 6-15 tour date tonight. Harden scored 20 points while shooting 6-15 from the field, and he led the 76ers with nine assists; he was inefficient overall, and he was invisible when it mattered the most: in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden scored two points and shot 0-3 from the field. He scored four points on 1-5 field goal shooting in the second half. 

The "experts" keep saying that Harden has suddenly aged, but the only thing that has changed is that referees are not rewarding him with phantom foul calls; that means that he gets fewer cheap free throws, and it also means that defenders can guard him normally. Harden's demonstrated skill set now is the same that it was during previous playoff runs, as is his propensity to disappear in crunch time. Harden still overdribbles, jacks up three pointers, shoots poorly, and disappears when his team needs him the most. Harden was front and center for what Charles Barkley called "one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen" as Harden's 2019 Houston Rockets lost at home to the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant, and what we are seeing now is just the latest chapter in the epic book of Harden's playoff choke jobs/disappearing acts.

Miami led 31-24 after the first quarter as Butler scored six points on 2-4 field goal shooting. Harden started slowly with four points on 1-4 field goal shooting. Philadelphia gained no ground in the second quarter, and Miami enjoyed a 60-52 edge at intermission. Harden's only effective minutes happened in the second quarter, when he scored 12 points on 4-6 field goal shooting, but even those numbers are inflated by a gift from Oladipo with .1 second left: Harden was trapped and about to fling a desperation shot when Oladipo lightly bumped him, enabling Harden to parachute out of danger to the free throw line, where he made all three charity tosses. Those three donated points are more than he scored in the entire third quarter, as Maxey scored 13 points to keep the 76ers within striking distance while Harden had two points and two assists. Miami led 91-80 heading into the final stanza. 

Less than three years ago, Daryl Morey proclaimed that Harden is the greatest scorer in NBA history. With the 76ers' season on the line for all intents and purposes (teams rarely come back from a 2-0 deficit), Harden produced two fourth quarter points while orchestrating an offense that shot 6-18 from the field (.333) and was outscored 28-23. Harden has been pulling this kind of choke job/disappearing act in the playoffs for a decade. Why are people pretending like this is something new? The NBA officiating regular season games correctly and not giving Harden cheap free throw attempts is new, but Harden struggling in the playoffs is not new.

One of Harden's favorite "concert tour" dates is 2-11, a performance that he has scheduled four times during his playoff career. Maybe he is saving that one for an elimination game; it would not be the first time he scheduled a 2-11 tour date for an elimination game. 

When "stat gurus" began promoting "advanced basketball statistics," one of the major criticisms that they lobbed at old school NBA executives was that those executives regularly overpaid players because those executives allegedly did not know how to analytically evaluate basketball talent. Many "stat gurus" and their media Boswells got paid a lot of money to promote (and self-promote) such narratives. It will be fascinating to see if Morey, the poster child for the "stat gurus" and someone who has been a general manager for 14 years without reaching the NBA Finals even once, rewards Harden's "concert tour" with a contract extension of more than $200 million. The definitive book on the 76ers' journey from tanking to betting the house on Harden has yet to be written, but it most assuredly is not going to be the book that is inaccurately but amusingly titled Tanking to the Top. If Morey writes that nine figure check to Harden then "Tanking to Oblivion and Overpaying to the Bottom: How 'Advanced Basketball Statistics' Ruined the 76ers" would be a good book title.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey, Victor Oladipo

posted by David Friedman @ 11:43 PM

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Harden's "Concert Tour" Continues as Heat Rout 76ers

"We on award tour with Muhammad, my man/Going each and every place with the mic in their hand/New York, NJ, N.C., VA."--A Tribe Called Quest, "Award Tour"

Jalen Rose had the line of the season when he said that James Harden's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates. Every time I watch Harden play now, I think of the classic A Tribe Called Quest song "Award Tour," but I insert my own lyrics as if Harden is the lead singer:

"We on award tour with Daryl Morey, my man/Going each and every place shooting bricks with either hand/Philly, Toronto, Miami."  

Harden's "concert tour" rolled into Miami for a May 13 tour date as he shot 5-13 from the field in Miami's 106-92 game one second round win versus his Philadelphia 76ers. Harden finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers. Even with Joel Embiid out of the lineup because of a concussion and a fractured orbital bone, Harden was no better than the third best player on his team. Tobias Harris scored a game-high 27 points on 11-18 field goal shooting. As Shaquille O'Neal said during TNT's halftime show, Harris has the "triple green light" now because "He's the go-to guy." Harris showed once again that he can attack off of the dribble, make jumpers, and create plays for his teammates. Tyrese Maxey did not have a great game, but he kept attacking, and he finished with 19 points on 6-15 field goal shooting. In contrast, Harden--who is angling for a contract extension worth hundreds of millions of dollars and that would pay him past his 38th birthday--shot 1-4 from the field in the second half as the 76ers went from enjoying a 52-51 halftime lead to losing by double digits.

The Heat, playing without injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and with a sore-kneed Jimmy Butler, did not play their best game, but they pulled away in the fourth quarter as Harden watched and waited for someone to save the day. Tyler Herro led the Heat with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo, who should have received more opportunities in the absence of Embiid, finished with 24 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, plus 12 rebounds and four assists. Butler had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he shot just 5-16 from the field while looking nothing like the player who averaged more than 30 ppg in the first four games of the first round versus Atlanta before sitting out game five due to a knee injury.

Remember, when this season began we were told that Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving formed the nucleus of what could be the greatest offense ever. That is just another example of the extent to which many media members are deeply invested in the "James Harden is an all-time great" narrative; they voted him to the All-NBA First Team when he was not one of the league's top two guards, they gave him an MVP, and they even put him on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. These media members are never going to admit that they were wrong about Harden, so the new narrative emerging recently is that Harden--who is just 32 years old--has lost a step and does not have the skills that he supposedly used to have. However, anyone who has followed Harden for his entire career can apply the eye test and understand that Harden now is the same player that he has been ever since he fled Oklahoma City to be the number one option in Houston. For years, he relied on (1) being rewarded with free throw attempts after plowing into defenders, (2) traveling on his so-called "step back" move to gain space to shoot three pointers, and (3) being rewarded with three free throw attempts after falling to the ground like an assassination victim during his three point field goal attempts. In short, he did not master basketball but rather he mastered "flop and flail." This enabled Harden to "efficiently" score 25-30 points during games when he shot 5-17 from the field but made 15 or 20 free throws. Also, this made defenders so wary of being called for fouls that many coaches--most notably Gregg Popovich--instructed their players to guard Harden with their hands behind their backs. Obviously, it was a lot easier for Harden to make shots when his opponents literally played with their hands tied. It is telling that Harden's field goal percentage was never very good even during the years when defenders often avoided contesting his shots.

Harden has not slowed down, but the game has caught up with him. For example, consider what happened at the 6:11 mark of the first quarter of tonight's game: Harden made the exact same move at the exact same speed that he has done for a decade, but this time Harden was correctly whistled for a charge after he plowed into P.J. Tucker. The NBA has--finally--decided to officiate correctly. Now, when Harden has a "concert tour" date like his 5-13 performance versus Miami he ends up with 16 points instead of 30. 

It's not too late for media members to admit that they were wrong about Harden--well, actually, it is a bit late, unless the league is going to retroactively reallocate awards to their rightful recipients. Adrian Dantley, who drew legitimate foul calls and had a real--i.e., non-traveling--step back move should have been on the 75th Anniversary Team (as should have Chris Bosh, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady). Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, and Damian Lillard are other overrated active players who should not have made the 75th Anniversary Team. Maybe a new generation of media members will do better in 25 years when the 100th Anniversary Team is selected. 

The only "award" on Harden's "concert tour" should be "Most Overrated MVP" ever. This is not just about one game; anyone who has ever read my work knows better than to even dare suggest that I would base an overall evaluation of any player on his performance in just one game--even a game seven. For many years, I have criticized the high variance style favored by Daryl Morey and James Harden. Harden is who I said he was. Maybe someday more people will understand that truth, and adjust their historical rankings accordingly to give deserved credit to the players who were truly great.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 11:24 PM

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Miami Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Miami (53-29) vs. #4 Philadelphia (51-31)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid dominates the paint at both ends of the court. Embiid averaged 26.2 ppg on .520 field goal shooting during Philadelphia's 4-2 first round series win versus Toronto, but those numbers are deceptive. Embiid is often injured and/or not in peak condition during the postseason, and 2022 is no exception: Embiid suffered torn ligaments in his right thumb during game three, and he has not been the same player in his last three games, averaging 24.7 ppg while shooting .467 or worse from the field in two of those three games. The 76ers just announced that Embiid suffered a right orbital fracture and mild concussion after receiving an elbow from Pascal Siakam late in game six. Embiid's current status is "out indefinitely," and without him the 76ers have no chance to win this series.

This season, Embiid won his first scoring title (30.6 ppg). If Embiid had stayed healthy and if he could have averaged at least 30 ppg with .550+ field goal shooting while also protecting the paint defensively, then this could have been a competitive series, but a right orbital fracture is a series-ending injury, which means that it will also be a season-ending injury.

During the first round, Tyrese Maxey emerged as the 76ers' second scoring option, averaging 21.3 ppg with excellent shooting splits (.511/.405/.950). He was the difference in the series, most notably during times when Embiid was not dominant. Maxey benefits from the defensive attention that Embiid attracts, but he is also capable of creating his own shot, particularly in transition. If Maxey had played at his normal level then the series would have at least gone the distance, and quite possibly the final outcome would have been different.

Tobias Harris has struggled a bit since the 76ers acquired James Harden, but he had a very good series versus Toronto (17.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, shooting splits of .519/.433/.875).

Whether by accident, design, or necessity, the 76ers figured out the truth of what I have said about James Harden for the past decade: he cannot be the best player on a championship contender, and it is not clear if he can be the second best player on a championship contender. Harden ranked third on the 76ers in scoring (19.0 ppg) and minutes (40.5 mpg) in the first round. He led the team in assists (10.2 apg).

The notion that Embiid and Harden form a duo that should be compared with the 76ers' legendary Moses Malone-Julius Erving duo or with the more recent legendary Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant duo is laughable. Bryant, Erving, and O'Neal are each Pantheon level players, while Malone is not far below Pantheon level (and he played at a Pantheon level in the first year that he partnered with Erving, winning the 1983 season MVP and the 1983 Finals MVP). Embiid is a talented player who has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs. Harden has been overrated for most of his career, and he has choked in most of his biggest playoff moments. The 2022 76ers lost more games in the first round to an injury-depleted Toronto team than the Malone-Erving 76ers lost during their entire 1983 championship run.

The narrative that is gathering currency now is that Harden is over the hill. Harden is 32 years old and he averaged 37.2 mpg this season. He is not old, and there is no indication that he is injured. The reality is that his game depended to a significant extent on "flop and flail," so the NBA's belated crackdown on that nonsense has rendered much of Harden's game ineffective: he can no longer rely on being bailed out on either his drives or his three pointers, which means (1) he is forced to make shots and (2) defenders can guard him closely without fear of being whistled for phantom fouls. No, Harden has not lost a step--he is who we (or at least I) thought he was! Unless the NBA reinstates "flop and flail," Harden's "concert tour" field goal percentages are not going to improve. What about game six versus Toronto? Harden shot 7-12 (.583) from the field. Does that presage a return of "Houston MVP" Harden? I doubt it. That is just the third time in his past nine playoff games that he shot at least .500 from the field. In 143 career playoff games, his field goal percentage is .427. He shot .405 from the field versus Toronto, and it will be surprising if he shoots much better than that versus a Miami team that is more talented and deeper than Toronto.

It will be revealing to see how Harden performs versus Miami without Embiid. Harden will have every opportunity to prove that he is as great as so many people have proclaimed him to be.

Miami will win because…the Heat's elite defense will stifle Philadelphia's offense. The Heat lack size, but during the regular season they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The Heat held the Atlanta Hawks to 97.4 ppg on .440 field goal shooting during a 4-1 first round series win, and the Heat limited Trae Young to 15.4 ppg on .319 field goal shooting. During the regular season, Young averaged 28.4 ppg on career-high .460 field goal shooting. Embiid is a much better player than Young, but even in the unlikely event that he comes back from the orbital fracture the Heat will make him work for his points, and the Heat will not concede nearly as many wide open shots to his teammates as short-handed Toronto did.

Miami does not have a great offense, but the Heat will get enough scoring from Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo to more than keep pace with the 76ers. Victor Oladipo averaged 14.5 ppg in two games versus Atlanta, and he could provide a big boost if he is healthy enough to become a full-fledged member of the rotation. Kyle Lowry suffered a hamstring injury during game three that caused him to miss the rest of that game plus games four and five. His healthy return to action would help the Heat at both ends of the court, but the Heat have enough talent and depth to beat the 76ers even without him.

The caveat is that this preview is written with the assumption that Butler will return to action when the series begins. Butler sat out game five versus Atlanta due to knee soreness, but there is no indication that he is seriously injured. If he is limited by injury then it will be more difficult for the Heat to win this series, particularly if Lowry is also limited or out of the lineup.

Other things to consider: The Heat may be flying under the radar more than any other number one seeded team in recent memory. The early season championship talk focused on the Brooklyn Nets and L.A. Lakers, and more recent championship conversation has centered on the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Boston Celtics, but the Heat not only finished first in the Eastern Conference but they dismantled an Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year. 

Butler's leadership style may rub some people the wrong way, but all of the evidence indicates that (1) he is focused on team success and (2) he makes a significant contribution to team success at both ends of the court. His numbers are sometimes not quite as gaudy as the numbers posted by MVP candidates, but he is capable of having a similar impact, as he demonstrated during Miami's 2020 run to the NBA Finals and during the Atlanta series (30.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.8 spg, shooting splits of .543/.438/.794). 

Butler averaged 19.4 ppg for the 76ers in the 2019 playoffs but the 76ers traded him to Miami after he spent just one season with Philadelphia. Butler then led the Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals, while the 76ers have yet to get past the second round during the "Process" era that has most assuredly not resulted in "tanking to the top." Miami and Philadelphia have vastly different roster construction philosophies. The Heat focus on being the best team that they can be each season, while the 76ers spent several years tanking even though the evidence shows that tanking does not work. 

I would have predicted a six game Miami win if Embiid were available for the entire series, and I am tempted to predict a Miami sweep if Embiid misses the entire series, but Miami winning in five games is my pick.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 9:00 PM

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