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Monday, April 29, 2024

Brunson Burner Singes Sixers as Knicks Win 97-92 to Take 3-1 Lead

In the 1980s, the New York Knicks featured the "BK Broiler": Bernard King won the 1985 regular season scoring title--averaging 32.9 ppg to beat Larry Bird and Michael Jordan--after a sensational 1984 playoff run during which he led the league in postseason scoring (34.8 ppg) while scoring at least 40 points in four straight games. During the middle of that 1984 playoff scoring spree, King scored 46 points in back to back games, setting a franchise playoff single game scoring record that stood for 40 years--until Jalen Brunson, who could be dubbed the "Brunson Burner," torched the Philadelphia 76ers for 47 points on Sunday as the Knicks won 97-92 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Brunson shot 18-34 from the field, and he also tallied 10 assists while committing only one turnover in 44 minutes. He nearly matched the combined scoring output of Philadelphia's All-Stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, who scored 27 points and 23 points respectively.

With the game up for grabs, Brunson scored nine points in a bruising fourth quarter during which the Knicks scored 20 points on 6-21 (.286) field goal shooting while the 76ers scored 16 points on 6-24 (.250) field goal shooting. Brunson's shifty moves, deft ballhandling, and excellent footwork in the post make him very difficult to guard.

Maxey and Cameron Payne led the 76ers with five fourth quarter points each, while Embiid scored just one point and shot 0-5 from the field. Philadelphia coach Nick Nurse is rightly praised for his strategic acumen, but that fourth quarter will not appear on his career highlight reel: the 76ers looked disorganized, and Embiid spent most of the final stanza camped out behind the three point line. Although Embiid can make three pointers, he is most effective when he is operating in the paint, where he commands double teams, draws fouls, and converts high percentage shots.

Overall, Embiid shot just 7-19 from the field, and the dominant themes of his playoff career have not changed: in the postseason, he is often injured/out of shape, which contributes to his playoff numbers not matching his regular season numbers. Embiid's physical talent and basketball skills are undeniable, but there is no reason to believe that he will ever be healthy enough and well-conditioned enough to lead a team on a deep playoff run. As for Maxey, the sample size is small, but he seems to be better suited to the second option role than James Harden, who capped off his horrific elimination game resume with nine points and five turnovers while shooting 3-11 from the field as the Celtics routed the 76ers, 112-88, in the last playoff game of Harden's Philadelphia career. Harden then whined his way out of town and was traded to the L.A. Clippers, which elevated Maxey to the second option role behind Embiid.  

While Embiid and his 76ers have been treading water at best for the past several years, Brunson and the Knicks are rising. Brunson had a fantastic 2023-2024 regular season, ranking third in Knicks history in both total points (2212) and points per game (28.7). If he continues to play at his current level, Brunson will rank among the greatest guards in franchise history. The short list now, in chronological order, begins with Richie Guerin, who earned six All-Star selections and three All-NBA Team selections as a Knick. Walt Frazier was a seven-time All-Star, and a seven-time member of the All-Defensive Team who also earned six selections to the All-NBA Team. Frazier played an essential role for both of New York's championship teams (1970, 1973). Earl Monroe earned two of his four All-Star selections as a Knick, and he cemented his place in Knicks' lore when he was the second-leading playoff scorer for New York's 1973 NBA championship-winning squad. After participating in one of the NBA's greatest rivalries as members of the Knicks and Bullets respectively, Frazier and Monroe were dubbed the "Rolls Royce" backcourt after Monroe joined the Knicks in 1971. 

My default position is to be skeptical that an undersized player can be a dominant playoff performer, but Brunson may prove to be the exception to that generally applicable rule. After averaging just 8.0 ppg in his 2021 playoff debut as a third year player with the Dallas Mavericks, Brunson scored 21.6 ppg in a 2022 playoff run to the Western Conference Finals and 27.8 ppg as he led the Knicks to the second round last year. He is averaging 33.0 ppg in the first four games of the 2024 playoffs, and his 3-3 career playoff series record could improve to 4-3 as early as Tuesday if the Knicks beat the 76ers again. The similarly sized Damian Lillard--who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--has posted a 4-8 career playoff series record that will be 4-9 as soon as the Indiana Pacers finish off his Milwaukee Bucks. Here are the playoff series records of several other prominent 6-4 and under guards from the past 40 years: 

Thomas and Dumars had great success playing alongside each other with a good supporting cast, though Thomas was clearly the superior player even though they each won one Finals MVP. Billups won his lone NBA title playing alongside four players who made the All-Star team at least once, plus four-time All-Defensive Team member Tayshaun Prince. Iverson carried the 76ers to the 2001 NBA Finals but never made it past the second round in any other season. Parker won four titles playing alongside Pantheon member Tim Duncan, one of the greatest big men in pro basketball history. Nash won back to back regular season MVPs in a league featuring Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan, but he went 0-4 in the Western Conference Finals and just 7-5 in first round series. Rose led the Chicago Bulls to the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals, but two years later he suffered a devastating knee injury that altered his career arc and ended his time as an elite level player, though he is still active. Curry has won four championships and made six NBA Finals appearances with the Golden State Warriors. Andre Iguodala won the Finals MVP for the first of those four championship teams, and then Kevin Durant won the Finals MVP the next two times Golden State captured the title, with Curry earning his lone Finals MVP in 2022. Westbrook teamed with Kevin Durant to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to four Western Conference Finals appearances and the 2012 NBA Finals.  

It will be interesting to revisit the above list in 10 years and see how Brunson stacks up, particularly if he can avoid serious injuries.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:50 AM

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Friday, November 03, 2023

Walter Davis: The Greyhound

When I think of Walter Davis--the six-time NBA All-Star who passed away on Thursday--the word that comes to mind is "smooth." Davis glided across the court with such grace and speed that he earned the nickname "The Greyhound." He had the perfect build for a versatile perimeter player--6-6, 195 pounds during his prime--much like Pantheon players Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant. Davis was a very efficient and prolific scorer, averaging 18.9 ppg on .511 field goal shooting during his 15 season NBA career. He just missed joining the 20,000 point club, finishing with 19,521 points and ranking 18th on the NBA career scoring list/22nd on the ABA/NBA career scoring list when he retired in 1992.

Davis is one of the greatest players in the history of the prestigious North Carolina program, and he still ranks 10th in career Tar Heel scoring with 1863 points. Perhaps the most famous moment of Davis' college career happened during his freshman year in 1974, when he drained a 25 foot jump shot to cap off an eight point comeback in 17 seconds versus Duke and send the game to overtime, where the Tar Heels prevailed. Davis earned All-ACC honors twice, and he led North Carolina to the 1977 NCAA Championship, scoring a game-high 20 points in a 67-59 loss to Marquette. Davis is the uncle of current North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis, who averaged 8.2 ppg in a 12 season NBA career after a solid four years playing for North Carolina.

Walter Davis spent his first 11 NBA seasons with the Phoenix Suns, earning all of his six All-Star selections and both of his All-NBA Second Team selections (1978, 1979) during that time. Curry Kirkpatrick profiled rookie forwards Walter Davis, Marques Johnson, and Bernard King in the February 20, 1978 issue of Sports Illustrated. Kirkpatrick declared, "Walter Davis, Bernard King, and Marques Johnson may be the best athletes ever to come into the same professional sport at the same time at the same position." Johnson offered this assessment of how he and King stacked up versus Davis: "My game is inside and on the board, Bernard's is around the lanes, but Walter Davis' game is everywhere." During that historic 1977-78 season, future Hall of Famer (and 1985 scoring champion) Bernard King averaged 24.2 ppg (10th in the league), Johnson averaged 19.5 ppg, and Davis won the Rookie of the Year award after averaging 24.2 ppg (ninth in the league, just a few percentage points ahead of King) on .526 field goal shooting (10th in the league) as the Suns improved from 34-48 to 49-33. Davis finished fifth in regular season MVP voting. Johnson's Milwaukee Bucks--a Western Conference team at that time--beat Davis' Suns 2-0 in a first round mini-series during which Johnson averaged 28.5 ppg and 14.0 rpg while Davis averaged 25.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg.

Davis' scoring declined slightly in his second season (23.6 ppg, 10th in the league) but he increased his field goal percentage to .561 (seventh in the league), and he averaged 22.1 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in the playoffs as the Suns lost 4-3 to the eventual NBA champion Seattle Supersonics in the Western Conference Finals.

From 1978-80 Davis and Paul Westphal formed a tremendous Phoenix duo. Davis and Westphal each made the All-Star team in all three seasons. Davis made the All-NBA Second Team in 1978 and 1979, while Westphal earned All-NBA First Team honors in 1979 and 1980 and All-NBA Second Team honors in 1978. The Suns posted a 154-92 regular season record but did not advance past the Western Conference Finals. In 1980, the Suns traded Westphal to Seattle for Dennis Johnson, the 1979 NBA Finals MVP.

Davis made the All-Star team in 1981, but his numbers steadily declined in the early 1980s, and he did not make the All-Star team in 1982 or 1983. On February 25, 1983, Davis set an obscure but impressive NBA record by scoring his first 34 points without missing a shot from the field or the free throw line. Davis bounced back to average 20.0 ppg and make the All-Star team in 1984. He averaged 24.9 ppg on .535 field goal shooting during the 1984 playoffs, leading the Suns to the 1984 Western Conference Finals. Davis and the Lakers' Kareem Abdul-Jabbar tied for top scoring honors (23.8 ppg) in the Western Conference Finals, but the powerful Lakers won, 4-2. 

Davis voluntarily entered drug rehabilitation in December 1985 to treat his cocaine addiction. He averaged 21.8 ppg in 1985-86 but was not selected as an All-Star. Davis averaged 23.6 ppg (11th in the league) in 1986-87, earning his final All-Star selection. He signed with Denver as a free agent in 1988, and he remained a solid double figure scorer coming off of the bench for the next three seasons. Denver traded Davis to Portland in January 1991, and he averaged 6.1 ppg in 32 games for Portland. Davis signed with Denver as a free agent in November 1991, and he averaged 9.9 ppg in 46 games in his final NBA season.

At his peak, Davis could both slash to the hoop and dissect defenses with his deadly midrange jump shot that earned him the nickname "The Man With the Velvet Touch." His Phoenix teammate Alvan Adams once told NBA.com, "I don't remember a sweeter shot. Ray Allen's got a great shot. The Splash Brothers (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson), too. He (Davis) was a feared shooter. The other team knew it, too. Walter was one of the great shooters in NBA history." Davis was an outstanding player in his era, and he would have been even more productive in today's game that emphasizes offense in general, and perimeter play in particular. Davis did not shoot many three pointers--few players did during those days--but there is no doubt that he could have extended his range to fit in with today's three point shooting explosion.

Davis began his career as a small forward, but then shifted over to guard because of his ballhandling, passing, and midrange shooting. Davis played in at least 75 games in six of his first seven seasons, and he played in at least 70 games in 10 of his 15 seasons. He is the Suns' all-time leading scorer with 15,666 points. The Suns retired his number 6 in 1994, and they also inducted him in the franchise's Ring of Honor. It is a shame that Davis' name is probably largely forgotten outside of North Carolina and Phoenix, because he was a productive and efficient player who was fun to watch and who made significant contributions to winning teams.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 AM

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Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Examining James Harden's Counterfeit Numbers

The Brooklyn Nets defeated the Atlanta Hawks 117-108 on Wednesday night primarily because of another outstanding performance by Kevin Durant (32 points on 13-20 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, five assists, +15 plus/minus number)--and despite James Harden shooting just 5-14 from the field while posting a -9 plus/minus number. Harden led the Nets with 11 assists (four of them to Durant, who does not need Harden's help to score), but he scored just 16 points because the NBA no longer gives him 10-plus free throw attempts per game to provide cover for the many games in which Harden shoots poorly. Before the NBA belatedly decided to return to officiating games the way that they are supposed to be officiated, Harden posted counterfeit numbers while flopping and flailing his way to three scoring titles, the 2018 regular season MVP, and six All-NBA First Team selections. 

Yes, I called Harden's numbers from the past several seasons counterfeit. 

If you have a million dollars in a bank account, but $200,000 of those dollars are counterfeit bills that escaped detection then you are not really a millionaire--and if you average over 30 ppg but you are given several free throws per game that you did not deserve then you are not really a 30 ppg scorer. Harden's numbers are even more tainted than that analogy suggests, because the problem is deeper than just the undeserved free throws: the incorrect foul calls in Harden's favor put opposing players in foul trouble, put the opposing team in the penalty, and created a situation so absurd that great coaches determined that the only way to avoid fouling Harden was to instruct their players to play defense with their hands behind their backs. 

Shame on every media member who participated in and endorsed this sham instead of calling it out as an embarrassment to basketball.

I am not "Screaming A" Smith. I have not and never will call James Harden a "scrub" or demean him personally the way that loudmouth Smith verbally assaults players who he does not like. Harden is not a scrub. He is an All-Star caliber player--but he is not an MVP-level player or an All-NBA First Team-level player. 

Why do I often write about James Harden? Media members not only gave Harden an undeserved MVP, but they recently voted him onto the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. In 20 or 30 years, people who never saw Harden play may actually believe that Harden was an elite scorer and an all-time great player. Someone has to speak out and at least attempt to fix the historical record before fiction becomes permanently canonized as fact.

Harden's 16 points and 11 assists on 5-14 field goal shooting and 1-1 free throw shooting accurately reflects his typical level of play--but in previous seasons, he could have played at exactly the same level and finished with 30 points on 5-14 field goal shooting plus 15-16 free throw shooting. He would be the same caliber of player in either scenario, but those years of counterfeit free throws have distorted the historical record.

Consider Harden's 2017-18 MVP season. He played in 72 games, and he made less than 10 field goals in 47 of those games. Harden had at least 10 free throw attempts in 20 of the 47 games in which he made less than 10 field goals. Harden attempted at least 10 free throws in 37 of his 72 games in 2017-18, including 20 games in which he attempted at least 14 free throws. In one Houston loss to Boston, Harden shot 7-27 from the field but still scored 34 points due to his 15-15 free throw shooting--and remember that the problem is not just the unearned free throws, but also the way that the (lack of) enforcement of the rules compelled defenders to tiptoe tentatively around Harden instead of guarding him normally. Perhaps the most amazing thing about that 7-27 shooting performance is that a player could shoot that badly on that high volume of shots when he knew that the rules did not permit opponents to contest his shots.

Am I saying that Harden did not earn any of his free throw attempts? Obviously, no. Do I blame Harden for taking advantage of the situation? Yes, I do. If a security guard helps you to pass counterfeit bills, does that make it right to do so? No, and if referees let you get away with traveling, flailing, and flopping that is not right, either. The game should be played the right way. If you are a Top 76 player, then prove it with your basketball skills, not your flop and flail skills.

Note that Durant is not having the slightest problem scoring under the "new" rules (which is just a return to enforcing traditional basketball rules). Also note that the same media members who rewarded Harden for his counterfeit numbers now offer up numerous excuses for his poor play: he is supposedly injured, or he is rehabbing his injury, or he is out of shape. Why didn't Harden get in shape and stay in shape during the offseason? Alonzo Mourning once said, "My body is my business," meaning that keeping his body in shape was his responsibility so that he could perform at a high level. Harden's body is his business, and his body is the vehicle that has delivered fame and fortune to him. There is no excuse for him to be out of shape at the start of the season (or at any time, for that matter), and this is at least the second season in a row that he has started the season out of shape.

If you are younger than 40 and/or not familiar with basketball history, find some video of Adrian Dantley, who averaged at least 30 ppg for four straight seasons in the early 1980s while winning two scoring titles. Dantley was a master at drawing real fouls. Compare his arsenal of pump fakes and post moves with Harden's chicanery to learn the difference between fundamentally sound basketball and sideshow theatrics. Then, compare Dantley's step back move--accomplished without hopping, skipping, or jumping--with Harden's counterfeit step back move.

After completing that research, shake your head in despair that Harden has been immortalized as a Top 76 player while Dantley was left off of the list. If you have the time and are not sick to your stomach by that point, compare Harden to Bernard King, Alex English, and a host of other great players who were denied the Top 76 recognition that Harden received. 

I do not enjoy watching Harden play, but there is a feeling of schadenfreude when watching Harden play so far this season. Basketball purists have to hope and pray that the rules will continue to be enforced correctly, even if that means that the counterfeit nature of Harden's statistics from the past several seasons will be revealed.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 PM

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Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Revising the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List, Part IV

Part II and Part III of this series looked at the NBA's 50 Greatest Players lists published by Athlon Sports (in 2008) and the Boston Globe (in 2015) respectively. Both of those lists were compiled many years after the NBA released its official list in 1996, so those newer lists incorporated the next generation or two of NBA players. Before continuing our chronological examination of various NBA's 50 Greatest Players lists, it is worth considering the selections made in 1996 by two well-known NBA writers who were not members of the 50 person panel that selected the NBA's official list.

In an October 21, 1996 Chicago Tribune column published a few days before the NBA released its official list, Sam Smith--author of the book The Jordan Rules--chose his 50 Greatest NBA players, in order (the official list did not rank the players). Also, in an October 29, 1996 USA Today column published just before the NBA's official list was revealed, Bryan Burwell declared, "But 50 is too easy. Fifty allows a lot of room to work, and fewer egos to bruise. I prefer smaller numbers...The real challenge is gleaning all that greatness down into a more condensed digest of 20." Burwell ranked his all-time top 20 NBA players. We will first look at Smith's list (an asterisk indicates that the player was not on the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List):

1) Michael Jordan
2) Wilt Chamberlain
3) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4) Magic Johnson
5) George Mikan
6) Bill Russell
7) Oscar Robertson
8) Larry Bird
9) Jerry West
10) Elgin Baylor
11) Rick Barry
12) Julius Erving
13) Hakeem Olajuwon
14) Isiah Thomas
15) Bob Pettit
16) Bill Walton
17) Earl Monroe
18) Bob Cousy
19) Charles Barkley
20) Scottie Pippen
21) Moses Malone
22) Pete Maravich
23) Willis Reed
24) Kevin McHale
25) John Havlicek
26) Elvin Hayes
27) Wes Unseld
28) Karl Malone
29) Walt Bellamy*
30) Gus Johnson*
31) Walt Frazier
32) Lenny Wilkens
33) Joe Fulks*
34) George Gervin
35) Dave Cowens
36) Bernard King*
37) Jerry Lucas
38) Nate Archibald
39) John Stockton
40) Hal Greer
41) Dominique Wilkins*
42) Nate Thurmond
43) Bob McAdoo*
44) Robert Parish
45) Clyde Drexler
46) Dennis Johnson*
47) Slater Martin*
48) David Robinson
49) Paul Arizin
50) Sam Jones

Thus, Smith's list included eight players who were not on the official list: Walt Bellamy, Gus Johnson, Joe Fulks, Bernard King, Dominique Wilkins, Bob McAdoo, Dennis Johnson and Slater Martin. Smith's list did not include these eight players from the official list: Dave Bing, Billy Cunningham, Dave DeBusschere, Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O'Neal, Dolph Schayes, Bill Sharman and James Worthy.

Smith's 2019 selections would undoubtedly be different, but here we will only consider his 1996 list based on what had happened up to that time.

In Part I of this series, I mentioned a set of criteria (in no particular order) for comparing great players from different eras:

1) How great was a particular player in his own era?

2) How highly does a player rank overall in key statistical categories?

3) Based on a skill set evaluation, how well would a player have performed in a different era when facing different rules and circumstances?

4) Did the player have a historical impact on the game, in terms of forcing rules changes and/or influencing shifts in style of play?
 
Capsule resumes are provided in Part II for Bellamy and McAdoo.

Gus Johnson made the All-NBA Second Team four times, he made the All-Defensive First Team twice and he earned five All-Star selections. After playing nearly 10 seasons in the NBA, he finished his career by playing a little more than half a season as a valuable reserve for the Indiana Pacers' 1973 ABA championship team. Johnson was one of pro basketball's first high flying dunkers, but he was more than just a rugged and flashy athlete. Earl Monroe, Johnson's teammate with the Baltimore Bullets, praised Johnson's all-around game: "Gus was ahead of his time, flying through the air for slam dunks, breaking backboards and throwing full-court passes behind his back. He was spectacular, but he also did the nitty gritty jobs, defense and rebounding." Johnson averaged 16.2 ppg and 12.1 rpg during his pro career, ranking 18th in ABA-NBA career rebounding average.

Joe Fulks played the first three seasons of his professional career in the Basketball Association of America (BAA), which then merged with the National Basketball League to form the NBA in 1949-50--but the NBA includes BAA statistics from 1946-49 in its official records, so Fulks is considered the NBA's first scoring champion (1389 points in 60 game in 1946-47, when the title was decided by total points instead of ppg average). The regular season MVP award did not exist during his career and the first NBA All-Star Game was played during his second to last season, but Fulks made the All-Star team each of the two times he was eligible and he made the All-League Team (BAA or NBA) four times, including three First Team selections. Fulks was one of the pioneers of the jump shot and he was the leading scorer in both the regular season and the playoffs in 1947 when his Philadelphia Warriors won the championship. The argument against Fulks' Top 50 candidacy is that he was a 6-5, 190 pound forward who starred in the pre-shot clock era when the NBA was largely segregated, and it is not clear how well his skill set would have translated even 10 years after his prime, let alone several decades later.

Bernard King finished second in the 1984 regular season MVP balloting and he likely would have finished higher than seventh in 1985 if he had not suffered a devastating knee injury that ended his season after just 55 games; King averaged 26.3 ppg in 1983-84, and then he led the league in 1984-85 with a 32.9 ppg scoring average, picking up where he had left off after topping the NBA in 1984 playoff scoring (34.8 ppg). King became the first player to make the All-Star team after tearing his ACL; it took him nearly two full years to return to action--surgical techniques and rehabilitation regimens for ACL injuries were not nearly as advanced in the 1980s as they are today--and he triumphantly regained All-Star status in 1991, before missing all of the 1992 season due to injury and then retiring after playing just 32 games in 1992-93. King made the All-NBA Team four times, including First Team selections in 1984 and 1985. He also earned four All-Star selections. In his prime, he was one of the league's deadliest finishers on the break and he owned a lethal turnaround shot on the baseline.

Dominique Wilkins ranked in the top five in MVP balloting three times (including a second place finish in 1986). Wilkins won the 1986 scoring title (30.3 ppg), one of four seasons during which he averaged at least 29.0 ppg. Wilkins averaged at least 25.9 ppg for 10 straight seasons (1985-94, including 1992 when a ruptured Achilles limited him to 42 games). He made the All-NBA Team seven times, including one First Team selection. Wilkins made the All-Star team for nine straight seasons (1986-94). He is known for his ferocious dunks, but Wilkins scored 26,668 career regular season points and he is fond of pointing out that he did not score all or even most of them on dunks. Wilkins was a solid rebounder from the small forward position, with a career average of 6.7 rpg.

Dennis Johnson earned the nickname "Airplane" because of his high-flying exploits as a 6-4 guard who could rebound and block shots just as well as players who were much taller. He won the 1979 Finals MVP while leading Seattle to the NBA title, he finished fifth in regular season MVP voting the next season and in 1981 he earned his only All-NBA First Team selection. Johnson also made the All-NBA Second Team in 1980 and he made the All-Star team five times. Johnson made the All-Defensive Team nine times, including six First Team selections. He spent his first three seasons in Seattle, played his next three seasons in Phoenix and then finished his career with seven seasons in Boston, where he played a key role as the starting point guard on two championship teams (1984, 1986). Larry Bird once called Johnson his smartest teammate ever. Johnson was not a great shooter but he had a well-deserved reputation for making clutch shots, and he averaged 17.3 ppg in his playoff career compared to 14.1 ppg in his regular season career.

Slater Martin made the All-NBA Team five times and he made the All-Star team seven times. He ranked in the top 10 in assists six times and he was the starting point guard for five championship teams (four times with the Minneapolis Lakers, one time with the St. Louis Hawks).

The players from the official 50 Greatest Players List who Smith did not include accomplished a lot during their careers. Capsule resumes are provided in Part II for DeBusschere and Worthy, and in Part III for Bing, Cunningham, and Sharman.

Patrick Ewing won the 1986 Rookie of the Year award and he finished in the top five in MVP voting six times. He made the All-NBA Team seven times, including one First Team selection (1990). He made the All-Defensive Team three times and he made the All-Star team 11 times. Ewing entered the league as a rebounder and defensive specialist but he quickly proved to be a dominant scorer and one of the best shooting big men of all-time. He averaged at least 20 ppg and at least 10 rpg in nine straight seasons.

Shaquille O'Neal won the 1993 Rookie of the Year award. He won one regular season MVP (2000) and he finished in the top five in regular season MVP voting eight times. He won three Finals MVPs (2000-02) while playing on four championship teams. O'Neal led the league in regular season scoring twice (1995, 2000) and he led the league in playoff scoring once (2000). O'Neal led the league in field goal percentage 10 times, breaking Wilt Chamberlain's record of nine. Among ABA/NBA career leaders, O'Neal ranks fourth in field goal percentage (.582), ninth in blocked shots (2732) and 10th in points (28,596).

Dolph Schayes finished in the top five in MVP voting three times. He made the All-NBA Team each of the first 12 seasons of his career, including six First Team selections. Schayes also played in 12 straight All-Star Games. He ranked in the top 10 in scoring 11 times, led the league in rebounding once and he finished in the top 10 in assists three times. For nearly six years, Schayes was the NBA's career scoring leader, before being passed by Bob Pettit and then Wilt Chamberlain.

Based solely on the players' career statistics and accomplishments as of October 1996, I agree with three of the players Smith added: Walt Bellamy, Bob McAdoo and Dominique Wilkins. I agree with three of the players Smith did not include: Dave Bing, Bill Sharman and James Worthy. Thus, I would not have added Joe Fulks, Dennis Johnson, Gus Johnson, Bernard King and Slater Martin, and I would not have left off Billy Cunningham, Dave DeBusschere, Patrick Ewing, Dolph Schayes and Shaquille O'Neal.

Bellamy was a dominant scorer and rebounder; critics suggest that he did not always play hard, which brings to mind Ralph Wiley's comment about baseball great Rickey Henderson: if he put up those numbers while coasting then he must be the greatest player of all-time. I am not suggesting that Bellamy is even a Top 10 player all-time, but he was a Top 50 player as of 1996.

McAdoo was the only NBA regular season MVP who did not make the original Top 50 list. He was a "stretch four" (or even a "stretch five") before the term was invented, and McAdoo also rebounded and blocked shots. Pat Riley has said that the Lakers would not have won their 1982 and 1985 titles without McAdoo.

Wilkins was the eighth leading scorer in NBA history/11th leading scorer in ABA/NBA history when the original Top 50 list was selected. He was a pure scorer who was somewhat underrated in other areas of the game, and he belonged on the original list.

While a case can be made for Bing, Sharman and Worthy, equally good--if not even better--cases could be made for other players even in 1996, as I discussed in Parts II and III of this series.

I am puzzled by Smith's inclusion of Fulks, Martin, Dennis Johnson and Gus Johnson. While all four players are clearly deserving Hall of Famers, none of them should receive serious Top 50 consideration. Fulks was the only member of this quartet who was statistically dominant in his own era, but Fulks had a short career in the NBA's formative years and there just is not enough evidence to rank him in the Top 50. Martin and Dennis Johnson each served as the point guard on multiple championship teams and Johnson was even the best player on one championship team, but most of the time they were not even the second best player on their championship teams. Gus Johnson was a fantastic player but neither his peak value nor his short career justify ranking him in the Top 50.

A good case could be made for Bernard King: he had at least one 20 ppg season in three different decades, he had a stretch as an MVP-caliber performer and, were it not for the knee injury, he displayed a talent level that may very well rank him among the top 30 players of all-time. It is tough to leave him off, and I would not argue strenuously against including him in 1996, but he and Wilkins were similarly skilled players, with Wilkins sustaining a peak level for a longer period of time than King did. It could very well be argued that perhaps King deserved inclusion over players not discussed in this article, but focusing just on who Smith included and who Smith left off compared to the official list, I would reluctantly leave King off.

I would have kept Billy Cunningham and Dave DeBusschere on the list in 1996. Cunningham was a top notch scorer, rebounder and playmaker; he won an ABA MVP and he twice finished in the top five in NBA MVP voting. DeBusschere was a rugged power forward who could score inside and outside, rebound and defend. He was the final piece to the Knicks' championship puzzle. DeBusschere would not make my Top 50 in 2019, but he deserved inclusion in 1996.

The main argument that could be made to keep O'Neal off of the list in 1996 was that he had only played three seasons. However, by that time he already owned a scoring title, a Rookie of the Year award, two top five MVP finishes and two All-NBA selections, in addition to leading the Orlando Magic to the 1995 NBA Finals. Perhaps it was premature to include a third year player, but it was also obvious that if he was not included the list would look silly pretty soon. In Smith's defense, he made his list before the NBA announced their list, and perhaps Smith just neglected to seriously consider anyone who had not played at least five or six seasons.

Less understandable are Smith's omissions of Schayes and Ewing. Schayes was a dominant scorer/rebounder/passer for a dozen years, and he continued to perform at a high level after the introduction of the shot clock and after the talent surge of the 1950s and early 1960s added Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West and others to the mix. It is particularly odd that Smith included Fulks--who had a shorter career, mostly in the pre-shot clock era--but left out Schayes, a bigger and more dominant player who proved that his skill set fit in even as the NBA evolved to become faster paced and more athletic.

Ewing never won an NBA title, and his demeanor probably did not win him many fans in the media, but you have to give the man his due: he scored, rebounded and defended at a very high level for more than a decade. No offense to several of the players listed above who Smith included, but no general manager or coach in his right mind would take those players over Ewing.

Regarding Burwell's list, as noted above he decided to select just 20 players, not 50. Every player he chose made the cut both for the NBA's official list and for Smith's list, which is not surprising considering that those lists were more than twice as long. Here is Burwell's list:

1) Michael Jordan
2) Wilt Chamberlain
3) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4) Magic Johnson
5) Larry Bird
6) Bill Russell
7) Oscar Robertson
8) Julius Erving
9) Jerry West
10) Elgin Baylor
11) George Mikan
12) Isiah Thomas
13) Rick Barry
14) Earl Monroe
15) Bob Pettit
16) Hakeem Olajuwon
17) Bob Cousy
18) Charles Barkley
19) Pete Maravich
20) Moses Malone

Burwell's top four is identical to Smith's top four. Smith had Mikan at five, while Burwell placed him at 11. Mikan is the toughest case; he was voted the most dominant basketball player of the first half of the 20th century, but he played his best basketball in the pre-shot clock, largely segregated NBA, so it is very difficult to figure out how his skill set and dominance would have translated even into the 1960s, let alone later decades. In terms of how he dominated his era, Mikan is a top five player of all-time, but in terms of how his skill set would have translated there is no way to say with any confidence; that is why I restrict my player rankings to the post-shot clock era.

I thought that Smith ranked Erving a little low (12th), so it is nice to see Erving at eighth on Burwell's list, and that is a more accurate reflection of educated conventional wisdom at that time (I could make a good case to rank Erving higher, but most analysts at that time would have probably put Erving in the bottom portion of the top 10).

The second part of Burwell's list raises some eyebrows. Isiah Thomas is arguably the greatest little man in pro basketball history but it is questionable to rank him as the 12th best player overall. Earl Monroe at 14th jumped out at me, and Smith had Monroe at 17th; I cannot recall any other list--certainly not one made after the early 1970s--that would rank Monroe that highly. Monroe was a tremendous player, a Hall of Famer and easily a Top 50 choice in 1996, but I am baffled that anyone would rank him above--to choose just two MVPs--Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone. Monroe deserves credit for being an innovative ballhandler and scorer, as well as for accepting a lesser role statistically to help the New York Knicks win the 1973 title, but that still should not have placed him in the Top 20 even back in 1996.

Burwell ranked Pete Maravich 19th and Smith ranked Maravich 22nd. Maravich is one of my favorite players of all-time, so it is great to see him receive appreciation, and I think that as time passes/memories fade he is becoming underrated.

Maravich was the best guard in the NBA in the mid-1970s before he suffered a serious knee injury, but his peak was brief and his career only lasted 10 seasons. Maravich was way ahead of his time, and if you transplanted him to today's game with his skill set he would average something like 35 ppg and 10 apg, but based on what he actually accomplished during his pro career both Burwell and Smith ranked him a few spots higher than I would have at that time.

---

Further Reading:

Part I of this series can be found here.

Part II of this series can be found here.

Part III of this series can be found here.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 AM

2 comments

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Defining Impact on Winning and Evaluating Great One on One Scorers

Here are some recent NBA headlines: "Harden's 47 points lead Rockets over Jazz 102-97," "Harden has 2nd straight triple-double, Rockets top Grizzlies," "Harden's 50-point triple-double leads Rockets over Lakers," and "Harden scores 29 to lead Rockets past Blazers 111-104." Those headlines would lead one to believe that James Harden is the primary, if not only, reason that the Houston Rockets are enjoying a four game winning streak. There is no doubt that Harden has posted impressive individual numbers during these four games--but does that mean there is a connection between his numbers and the team's success?

I have often said that Harden is an updated version of Stephon Marbury, meaning that he puts up numbers that are not really impacting winning. I have been asked/challenged at times to explain or justify that assertion.

So, let's look at some other numbers from that winning streak, during which Houston beat Utah 102-97, Memphis 105-97, the L.A. Lakers 126-111 and the Portland Trail Blazers 111-104. Harden's plus/minus numbers from those games are -1, +3, +14 and -15 respectively. Thus, the Rockets outscored their opponents by 35 points but they only outscored them by one point while Harden was in the game.

Plus/minus numbers can be noisy for a variety of reasons but they are not completely meaningless, particularly when they are used in conjunction with the eye test. The eye test tells us that Harden is flashy, that Harden scores a lot, and that Harden holds onto the ball for most of the shot clock such that it is highly likely that if Houston scores while he is in the game he will either be making the shot or delivering the assist. The eye test also tells us that he is, at best, a lazy and indifferent defender, though his attention seems to pick up at least momentarily if someone posts him up.

Take away the offensive sizzle and the defensive fizzle and what do you have? Sound and fury signifying, if not nothing, then very little in regards to winning basketball.

Why are the Rockets winning now? Collectively, they are defending better. Their bench is playing much better and is killing the other team's bench on many nights. Also, at the end of the Lakers' game, Harden did take over by hitting several clutch shots. Not surprisingly, that is the one game out of this four game sample size during which his plus/minus numbers were significantly positive.

If you believe in basketball karma (or just karma in general), you also have to think that the way Harden is allowed to repeatedly commit fouls and violations on offense is going to come back to haunt him, as it has throughout his postseason career when he is awarded bogus calls much less frequently. His step back, step back move last night versus Utah--which in old school terminology is known more simply as a traveling violation--is just the latest, most egregious example of how Harden is permitted to blatantly break the rules. The media narrative is that he is a foul-drawing genius. Some people call him the greatest one on one player in the game today, if not all-time. I get sick to my stomach when I hear that.

Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant had fundamentally complete skill sets in all areas of the court, plus supreme athleticism. Julius Erving did not have as great or consistent of a jump shot as those guys, but during his prime it was impossible to guard him one on one. George Gervin, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Bernard King and Mark Aguirre did not have the all-around games that Erving, Jordan and Bryant did, but as pure one on one scorers they take a back seat to no one. Don't forget Jerry West and Pete Maravich as well. George Gervin was smooth and efficient. Adrian Dantley was an undersized post up technician with deceptive quickness and power. Alex English was a poet and he was poetry in motion. Bernard King was a scientific and explosive scorer who repeatedly practiced certain shots from various areas of the floor and then made sure that those were the shots he took during games. Mark Aguirre could teach a master class on post up play and he could also beat you off the dribble. Jerry West and Pete Maravich could shoot (and connect) from anywhere on the court at any time.

To put Harden in that group is an insult to the way that those players developed their craft so that they could score within the rules. Harden's points count in the record books, much like the home runs hit by Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and the other PED cheaters, but just like Bonds, McGwire and the others did not truly surpass Hank Aaron, Harden has not truly surpassed his great predecessors. James Harden is regularly permitted to (1) travel, (2) lock his arms into the defender's, flail and be awarded two free throws, (3) jump into a stationary defender while shooting a three pointer and be awarded free throws, and (4) bulldoze into the lane, commit an offensive foul but instead be awarded free throws. These things do not happen once in a while; they are a regular part of Harden's repertoire. I am not convinced that he could score much more than 20 ppg if he were officiated correctly.

Most conspiracy theories regarding the NBA are nonsense but one has to wonder if the NBA is for some reason invested in Harden's success and/or invested in promoting offense in general to the point that defense becomes an afterthought (at least until the playoffs, when some semblance of sanity returns). During the Lakers' game, the Lakers resorted to keeping their hands down or completely away from Harden so that they could not possibly be called for a foul. Of course, that just lets Harden shoot uncontested shots that any competent NBA player can make. San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich figured out several years ago that Harden must be defended with "high hands" (which makes a lot more sense than no hands, which the Lakers tried), because if a defender moves his hands anywhere near Harden then Harden is going to be awarded free throws.

If you are too young to remember Adrian Dantley, then find some old footage and watch how he drew fouls. He used impeccable footwork, fakes and body positioning. He made basketball moves to score and if he got fouled he earned it. He did not bulldoze opponents, he did not travel and he did not flail.

The way that James Harden plays is not great one on one offense and the way that the NBA officials let him get away with blatant fouls/violations makes Harden almost unwatchable for any basketball purist.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 PM

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Wayback Machine, Part VIII: The 1982 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

The front cover photo of the 1982 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball depicted the NBA's best early-1980's rivalry--not Larry Bird versus Magic Johnson (which peaked from 1984-87 when Johnson's L.A. Lakers won two out of three NBA Finals showdowns with Bird's Boston Celtics, capped by the Lakers' 1987 victory that prompted Bird to call Johnson "The best I've ever seen") but rather Julius Erving versus Larry Bird. Erving's Philadelphia 76ers beat Bird's Celtics 4-1 in the 1980 Eastern Conference Finals and took a 3-1 lead in the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals before losing three straight games, capped by a 91-90 game seven defeat in the Boston Garden. The back cover photo showed Houston's Moses Malone authoritatively pulling down a one-handed rebound against the Celtics, who defeated Malone's Rockets 4-2 in the 1981 NBA Finals.

The 1982 CHPB contained 319 pages, a 16 page reduction from the 1981 CHPB. In addition to 23 team profiles, the CHPB included lists of the 1981 NBA statistical leaders, a complete schedule, a list of all-time NBA records, a list of all 223 players selected in the 1981 NBA Draft and a "TV/Radio roundup." Bob Ryan, the long-time Boston Globe writer who is probably better known to younger readers as an ESPN personality, contributed a feature story titled "The Championship Flight of Boston's Rare Bird." Ira Berkow, who shared the 2001 Pulitzer Prize for national reporting, wrote "Isiah Thomas' Giant Step to the Pros" and Barry Bloom described "The Resurrection of Bernard King."

Steve Hershey and George White co-wrote the "Inside the NBA" preview, predicting that the Philadelphia 76ers would defeat the San Antonio Spurs in the 1982 NBA Finals. Most of the article dealt with the biggest NBA news of the offseason: the beginning of the era of "free agency without compensation." Previously, if a free agent signed with a different team then his new team had to compensate his old team and if the two teams could not agree on the proper compensation then the NBA Commissioner would make the decision for them. For instance, Houston signed Golden State's free agent forward Rick Barry prior to the 1978-79 season and Commissioner Larry O'Brien sent Rockets point guard John Lucas to the Warriors as compensation after the two teams could not come to terms. Hershey and White speculated that the new form of free agency could lead to the rich getting richer because wealthy owners who thought that they were one player away from winning a championship might spend wildly to get that player--but Hershey and White concluded that in the short run the balance of power would likely not tilt and thus they selected perennial contender Philadelphia to finally win the championship in Erving's sixth season with the team.

Erving and the 76ers lived up to part of the CHPB's prediction--making it to the Finals for the second time in three years (and the third time in Erving's NBA career)--but they ran into one of the most underrated teams in pro basketball history: the L.A. Lakers featured Magic Johnson nearly averaging a triple double for the season (18.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 9.5 apg), a 34 year old but still highly productive Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (23.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.7 bpg), All-Star guard Norm Nixon and future Hall of Famer Jamaal Wilkes. The Lakers were so talented and so deep that former MVP/future Hall of Famer Bob McAdoo and future Defensive Player of the Year Michael Cooper both came off of the bench. By the time the 76ers met the Lakers in the Finals, the Lakers had won 11 games in a row--including 4-0 playoff sweeps of the Suns and the Spurs--and had not lost a game in six weeks. The 76ers took a 61-50 halftime lead in game one and then watched helplessly as the Showtime Lakers blew their doors off in the third quarter with a 19-2 run. The 76ers won game two at home but the Lakers captured three of the next four--with each victory coming by double digit margins--to take their second title in three seasons.

Here are some interesting notes, quotes and quips from the 1982 CHPB:

1) Ryan painted a detailed portrait of the young Larry Bird, though Ryan's prose drifted a bit toward hagiography--most notably when he lauded Bird as "far better than average" on defense even though the Celtics routinely assigned Bird to check the least dangerous opposing frontcourt player regardless of position; Bird was a savvy team defender and an outstanding defensive rebounder but he was a below average one on one defender who rarely guarded top notch scorers. Ryan asserted that in just his second season Bird had already proved "If he's not the finest all-around player in the game, then surely he must be the standard of comparison."

Though Ryan made it sound like Bird was flawless, Bird shot just .419 from the field in the 1981 NBA Finals even though he rarely launched from long distance (Bird connected on one of his two three point field goal attempts during the six game series win over the Houston Rockets). Cedric Maxwell's clutch play--he led the Celtics in scoring with a 17.7 ppg average against Houston--earned him Finals MVP honors, while Bird's major contribution came on the boards (15.3 rpg), where he nearly battled perennial rebounding champion Moses Malone to a draw (Malone hauled in a series-high 16.3 rpg).

Many fans, especially those who are too young to remember Bird's entire career, think of him as a three point shooter and deft passer but Bird started out as a rugged rebounder who did a lot of work in the trenches. While he shot .406 from three point range as a rookie in 1979-80--the first year that the NBA used the three point shot--Bird shot .286 or worse from behind the arc in each of the next four seasons and he did not average more than six apg until 1983-84, the first of his three straight MVP seasons.

2) Berkow began his Isiah Thomas article--reprinted from the New York Times--with the now-familiar story of how Thomas' mother used sharp words and a shotgun to fend off local Chicago gangs who tried to recruit Isiah and his brothers. Berkow described how Thomas improved his grades during his high school years so that he could earn a basketball scholarship as a ticket out of the Chicago ghettos. Thomas went to Indiana University with the goal of becoming a lawyer and helping members of his community who could not afford proper legal representation but he left school early because playing pro basketball enabled him to provide financial security for his family. Berkow's story ended with Thomas leading the Indiana Hoosiers to the second of Coach Bob Knight's three NCAA titles.

After that victory, Thomas turned pro and was drafted by the moribund Detroit Pistons, a team that posted just 16 wins in 1979-80 and 21 wins in 1980-81. Who could have imagined that just seven years later this undersized point guard (listed at 6-1 but probably closer to 5-11 or 6-0 at the most) would help the Pistons replace Bird's Celtics as the best team in the East en route to winning back to back championships versus Johnson's Lakers? Casual fans do not understand or appreciate just how rare and difficult it is for a short player to dominate pro basketball at a championship level. Thomas' Detroit Coach Chuck Daly once said that if Thomas had been 6-6 he would have been the greatest player ever; there is a bit of hyperbole in that statement and a bit of bias in favor of the best player Daly ever coached but there is also a kernel of truth in the sentiment. Thomas achieved so much but his size placed certain irrevocable limitations on him; Thomas refused to admit that while he played but after he retired he stood next to Bird and Johnson at some function and mentioned that for the first time it had dawned on him just how much they both towered over him (Bird and Johnson are each 6-9) and how remarkable it was that he went toe to toe with them for so many years.

3) Many NBA fans know that Bernard King became the first player to make the All-Star team after blowing out his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) but that was actually King's second comeback. Prior to that, King overcame drug and alcohol addiction, as Bloom explained: "Adversity and courage. They have become a way of life for Bernard King...since January, 1980, King has been engaged in the fight of his life--a fight not only against alcoholism, but a fight to clear his name of a once-reckless reputation." After averaging 24.2 ppg as a rookie for the Nets in 1977-78 and then scoring 21.6 ppg for the Nets in 1978-79, King slumped to just 9.3 ppg in only 19 games for the Utah Jazz in 1979-80. King averaged 21.9 ppg for the Golden State Warriors in 1980-81, winning the NBA's first Comeback Player of the Year award. King did not make the All-Star team in 1981 but he won Player of the Week honors in the first week of January after shooting 59-72 (.819) from the field and then he earned January's Player of the Month Award after averaging 27.4 ppg in 13 games while shooting 141-194 (.727) from the field.

King averaged 23.2 ppg for the Warriors in 1981-82, finally earning his first All-Star selection and also making the All-NBA Second Team for the first time. He signed a free agent deal with the New York Knicks after that season and the Warriors exercised their right of first refusal before agreeing to trade King for Micheal Ray Richardson. King made the All-NBA First Team in 1984 and 1985--and was selected as the 1984 MVP by the league's players in a Sporting News poll, though King finished second to Bird in the official MVP balloting conducted by media members--but his devastating ACL injury in early 1985 robbed him of his explosiveness and cost him nearly two full seasons. King returned to action late in the 1986-87 season and he ranked third in the league in scoring in 1990-91, earning his fourth and final All-Star selection.

4) John Drew was a big-time scorer in the 1970s and early 1980s, averaging at least 20 ppg for four straight seasons and for five seasons in a six season stretch. However, Drew's CHPB profile noted that his game was a bit one dimensional: "Retained his spot on the All-Non-Passing team with a mere 79 assists...Went to the Larry Kenon school of defense and was saved his usual embarrassment in the playoffs when the Hawks failed to qualify."

5) Bird's CHPB profile began with these words: "Belongs in a higher league...Absolutely the best all-around player in the universe. Could carry the Celtics on a dynasty trip." Despite that lofty praise, a good case could be made that--contrary to the way things were reported by many media outlets at the time--Bird never equaled or surpassed Magic Johnson: Johnson beat Bird head to head in the 1979 NCAA Championship Game, Johnson won Finals MVP honors as a rookie--guiding the Lakers to victory over a Philadelphia team that routed Bird's Celtics 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals--and Johnson ultimately topped Bird five to three in NBA championships, including the league's first back to back titles since Bill Russell retired. Ironically, by the time that Johnson finally received his due vis a vis Bird a new star eclipsed both of them: Michael Jordan won the much heralded MJ versus MJ showdown in the 1991 Finals, bested Johnson's repeat accomplishment by leading the Bulls to a three-peat and then came out of retirement to win a second three-peat.

If the 76ers had not blown a 3-1 lead in the 1981 Eastern Conference Finals and/or if Maxwell had not come through in the 1981 NBA Finals then the media likely could not have continued to portray Bird as the game's best all-around player--that just would not have sounded right if Bird was the only player in the Abdul-Jabbar-Johnson-Erving early 1980's pantheon who had not won a championship ring (if Erving's 76ers had not collapsed in the Eastern Conference Finals they would have presumably beaten the Rockets in the 1981 Finals). The elephant in the room is that, for many fans and media members, Larry Bird was the Great White Hope in a league that was widely perceived to be "too Black." Bird was indisputably a great player but at times--particularly early in his career--the media got more than a little carried away in terms of lauding him at the expense of Johnson; for instance, Johnson was killed in the press for supposedly getting Coach Paul Westhead fired in 1981 and for playing poorly in the Lakers' 1984 Finals loss but Bird largely escaped scrutiny for his subpar play when the Milwaukee Bucks swept the Celtics in the 1983 Eastern Conference semifinals and for having any role in Coach Bill Fitch's resignation after that season. The two coaching situations were different and I am not saying that Johnson was blameless and/or that Bird deserved blame; the point is that during that era the media seemed to quickly jump to negative conclusions about Johnson while giving Bird the benefit of the doubt.

6) Earlier editions of the CHPB did not speak highly of Robert Parish but his 1982 profile noted that Parish "Made the difference" for the Celtics because he "Supplied the shot-blocking and intimidating defense the team lacked."

7) Rookie Kevin McHale averaged 10.0 ppg and blocked 151 shots. His profile contained this colorful description of his physique: "Chicken-breasted and his waist seems to start above his often beer-filled stomach but can run the court with anyone." Boston's Bird-Parish-Maxwell starting frontcourt had proved formidable, prompting this rhetorical question about McHale: "When will he ever start?" McHale won the Sixth Man Award in 1984 and 1985 before becoming a full-time starter in 1986 and an All-NBA First Team member in 1987.

8) George McGinnis shared ABA MVP honors with Julius Erving in 1975 but by 1982 McGinnis' career was just about over, as his CHPB profile noted: "What a waste...Has all the tools, but keeps leaving them on the work bench...Now in the twilight of an outstanding career, which just never seemed to completely satisfy anyone...Genuine nice guy."

9) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was often unappreciated during his career and he is arguably the most underrated great player of all-time; his name rarely if ever comes up in the ubiquitous greatest player of all-time conversations but he should be on the short list in any such discussion. His profile contained this lament from the man who would become the sport's all-time scoring leader: "There's a certain 'otherness' about me that makes it hard for me. I'm not a mainstream type of person." Julius Erving has often called Abdul-Jabbar the greatest player he played against and that is understandable considering that Abdul-Jabbar is the major reason that Erving's 76ers did not win the 1980 and 1982 NBA titles (Magic Johnson performed at an outstanding level in both series but Abdul-Jabbar presented an unsolvable matchup problem for the 76ers until they acquired Moses Malone).

10) As memories of Erving's ABA heroics faded and as young stars emerged, the dominant media theme about Erving's career focused not on how much he had accomplished but rather on the one goal he had not achieved: winning an NBA title to go along with his two ABA titles. Erving's profile declared, "Another magnificent effort wasted...The Good Doctor plays nothing but top stakes now...Anything short of a world championship is a disappointment...Averaged 24.7 in seven game playoff against Milwaukee and 19.9 against Boston, when he finally wore down chasing Larry Bird...Will be 32 before playoffs start again and must be wondering if he'll ever collect an NBA championship to go along with his MVP trophy...Decision to have him face guard Bird for last five games of Celtics' series cost him some offensive effectiveness, but he accepted the task without a question...Still king of the one-on-one."

It is interesting to note that Erving "wore down" during the 1981 playoffs guarding the younger and bigger Bird while the Celtics usually assigned Maxwell or McHale to check Erving so that Bird could defend Caldwell Jones or whichever Philadelphia player was the least likely to get the ball. Magic Johnson was never as praised for his defense as Bird--who somehow made the All-Defensive Second Team twice--but one of the key adjustments of the 1982 Finals saw the Lakers switch Johnson on to Erving to keep Erving off of the offensive boards after Erving hurt the Lakers in that area earlier in the series. Johnson, who was roughly the same size as Bird--two to three inches taller than Erving and at least 15 pounds heavier--could not stop Erving from scoring but he did limit Erving's offensive rebounding.

11) Four-time All-Star Doug Collins played in just 12 games for Philadelphia during the 1981 season and he missed the entire playoffs: "Still wants to try...Trouble is, there's no room at the inn...Would make somebody a fine coach...Has missed 240 games in his eight year career and has endured enough punishment...When he was healthy, he was one of the best." Collins retired prior to the 1981-82 season and got his first NBA head coaching job five years later, mentoring a young Michael Jordan. Collins is still coaching in the league now, so that CHPB blurb proved to be prophetic.

12) Dudley Bradley's profile started with something that sounded like a Zen koan: "If he could shoot, he'd make the All-Defensive Team...Stop and think about it. He's one of the best defensive guards but his lack of offense keeps him in a reserve role...Fifth in the league in steals." What is even more confusing about that quote is that Bradley actually made the All-Defensive Team in 1981 despite only averaging 22.8 mpg for the Indiana Pacers! Bradley never became a good shooter but he hit one of the most unlikely three pointers in NBA history--a game-winner for Washington versus Philadelphia in the first game of the first round of the 1986 playoffs, capping a miraculous 18-0 run in the final four minutes. Bradley shot just 17-68 (.250) from three point range that season and he shot just 5-22 (.227) from three point range during his entire postseason career but he banked in a turnaround jumper from several feet behind the three point arc as time expired to stun the 76ers in Philadelphia. The 76ers eventually won the series three games to two.

13) Before Freeman Williams played Duck Johnson in "White Men Can't Jump" he was a two-time NCAA scoring champion--averaging 38.8 ppg as a junior in 1976-77 and 35.9 ppg as a senior in 1977-78 at Portland State--and he still ranks second on the NCAA's career scoring list behind Pete Maravich. Williams could score at the NBA level, too: "Could find the basket if you buried it five miles under the most remote peak in the Alps...Clipper Coach Paul Silas calls him 'one of the easiest scorers I've ever seen.'...Despite his gunner reputation, he does make an effort on defense." Williams led the Clippers in scoring in 1980-81 (19.3 ppg) despite playing just 24.1 mpg as a reserve.

14) Paul Westphal spent three seasons as a reserve player in Boston before being traded to the Phoenix Suns and blossoming into one of the league's premier guards--a five-time All-Star and four-time All-NBA selection--but by 1982 his health and skills had declined dramatically, leading to this poignant question at the start of his CHPB profile: "What happened en route to the Hall of Fame?...Wanted to leave Phoenix, where he was as much a part of the landscape as a gila monster, got his wish and was traded to Seattle. After playing just 36 games, he suffered his second foot stress fracture of the season and became a permanent spectator. Was forced to spend the next 30 weeks on electromagnetic therapy." Westphal's career lasted just three more seasons, two in New York followed by a swan song in Phoenix. He is not a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame.

James Harden is trying to navigate a Westphal-like path from the bench to perennial All-Star status; Harden made the All-Star team this season but it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his productivity and his health for the duration of his max level contract.

Wayback Machine, Part I looked at the 1975 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part II looked at the 1976 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part III looked at the 1977 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part IV looked at the 1978 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part V looked at the 1979 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part VI looked at the 1980 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

Wayback Machine, Part VII looked at the 1981 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:58 AM

4 comments

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Rising to the Occasion: Pro Basketball's Greatest Playoff Scorers

This article was originally published in the May 2002 issue of Basketball Digest. Readers who are interested in this subject should also check out my December 5, 2006 NBCSports.com article titled Stepping Up in the Playoffs.

Evaluating individual playoff scoring statistics differs from comparing individual regular season scoring statistics. The regular season is the same length for all players, so comparisons of two players' scoring averages over five, seven and ten year periods (a subject that I examined in a January 2002 Basketball Digest article) reflect their production over a similar and significant amount of games. In a given season a player may participate in up to 20 playoff games; this means that comparing five playoff seasons of two players could mean looking at one player's production over 80-100 games versus another player's in only a handful of games.

Comparisons of a player's career playoff scoring average to his career regular season scoring average do not take into account which stage of his career a player participates in the bulk of his playoff games (see below for why Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson are perfect illustrations of this). A more precise method is to see how many seasons a player's playoff scoring average surpasses his regular season scoring average, while also considering the player's per minute point production (since most stars play more minutes in the postseason) and how well he maintains his shooting percentage in the postseason.

Entering the 2001-2002 season, Michael Jordan's 33.4 ppg career playoff scoring average ranked first in pro basketball history, nearly two ppg better than his 31.5 ppg regular season scoring average (also first in pro basketball history). His playoff scoring average exceeded his regular season scoring average 11 times in 13 seasons (including his 18 game regular season in 1985-86 and his 17 game comeback season in 1994-95). The only two seasons that Jordan did not achieve this distinction were 1986-87 (career high 37.1 ppg in the regular season, 35.7 ppg in the playoffs) and the Chicago Bulls' first championship season in 1990-91 (31.5 ppg versus 31.1 ppg).

His 38.4 points per 48 minutes in the postseason almost matches his amazing 39.2 points per 48 minutes in the regular season. Like most players, Jordan's field goal percentage declines in the playoffs but his 50.5% regular season percentage and 48.7% playoff percentage are both excellent, particularly for a guard. Jordan's 5987 postseason points easily rank first in pro basketball history and he won a record six NBA Finals MVPs.

Jerry West is the only player other than Jordan to rank in the top six in career playoff points (4457, fourth all-time) and scoring average (29.1, third all-time). His playoff scoring average is 2.1 ppg better than his regular season scoring average and his 33.8 points per 48 minutes in the playoffs slightly exceeds his 33.1 points per 48 minutes in the regular season. West's playoff scoring topped his regular season scoring nine times. He had one season in which his regular season scoring average was higher and one season in which his averages were equal. West also missed one playoff season due to injury and had two other postseasons in which he played a total of 15 minutes due to injuries.

West holds the single-series scoring average record (46.3 ppg in 1965 versus the Baltimore Bullets). He scored 40-plus points in all six games of that series, also a record. He averaged at least 30.8 ppg in the playoffs each year from 1964 until 1970 (except for 1967, when he played only one minute in one game). West won the first NBA Finals MVP in 1969 and is still the only player from the losing team to capture that honor. He shot 47.4% from the field in the regular season and 46.9% in the playoffs, exceptional accuracy for the player deservedly known as "Mr. Clutch."

Allen Iverson owns the second highest career playoff scoring average (30.3 ppg). He averages 4.1 ppg more in the playoffs than in the regular season. Iverson logs heavy minutes in the regular season (40.6 minutes per game) and almost goes the distance in the postseason (45.5 minutes per game), which is truly remarkable for a player who is listed (generously) at 6-0, 165 pounds.

Iverson scores slightly more points per minute in the postseason (32.0) than in the regular season (30.9). His playoff scoring has exceeded his regular season scoring two of the three seasons that he has participated in the playoffs (the Sixers did not qualify for the playoffs in his first two seasons). The only knock against Iverson is his shooting percentage, 42.6% in the regular season and 39.2% in the playoffs.

Reggie Miller does not score as much as any of the other players under consideration here, but he scores 4.0 ppg more in the postseason than the regular season and also averages 2.3 more points per 48 minutes in the playoffs. Miller shoots 47.6% from the field in the regular season and 45.6% in the playoffs; these numbers are comparable to West's and are good for a guard, especially considering the large number of three pointers that he makes. His legacy is not told in championships won or records set, but an extraordinary amount of clutch shots taken (and made) in the heat of playoff battle.

Rick Barry, the only player to win scoring titles in the NCAA, NBA and ABA, averaged 24.8 ppg in his NBA/ABA regular season career and increased that to 27.3 ppg (fifth all-time) in the playoffs. Interestingly, his playoff scoring average was higher than his regular season scoring average only four times in ten seasons (in three other seasons Barry's teams did not qualify for the playoffs).

Barry almost single-handedly carried the Golden State Warriors to the 1975 NBA Championship, winning Finals MVP honors. He also averaged 40.8 ppg in a losing cause for the Warriors in the 1967 NBA Finals versus the 76ers and won a scoring title for the 1969 ABA Champion Oakland Oaks, although he did play in the playoffs that year due to injury.

Karl Malone ranks fifth in playoff points (4341) and seventh in playoff ppg (26.6). He scores slightly more in the playoffs than the regular season (25.9 ppg). He has scored more points in the playoffs than the regular season 10 times in 16 seasons. However, Malone's field goal percentage declines dramatically in the playoffs--from 52.4% in his regular season career to 46.6%. He has made as many as 50% of his field goals in only four playoff campaigns, while shooting below 45% five times. Several years ago Bill Walton criticized Malone for settling for too many perimeter shots against the Bulls in the Finals and Malone’s low shooting percentages provide evidence of this.

It may surprise some people that Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson averaged 7.6 ppg and 3.5 ppg less respectively in the postseason than in the regular season. Chamberlain averaged a record 50.4 ppg in the 1961-62 regular season, so his 35.0 ppg in that year's playoffs represents a decline, even though there are only a few players in basketball history who have ever averaged that much in a playoff season. Also, while Chamberlain played 14 NBA seasons, exactly half of his playoff games came in his five years with the Lakers, when he concentrated more exclusively on rebounding, passing and defense. Chamberlain averaged 29.3 ppg in his first 80 playoff games (29.4 points per 48 minutes) and 15.8 ppg (16.2 points per 48 minutes) as a Laker (note that he played almost 48 minutes per game his entire career!) He won the 1972 Finals MVP despite playing with a cast on one hand.

Similarly, Robertson averaged 29.7 ppg in his first 39 playoff games with the Cincinnati Royals (30.4 points per 48 minutes). He played the last four years of his career with the Milwaukee Bucks, averaging 16.0 ppg in 47 playoff games (19.5 points per 48 minutes) and winning his only championship in 1971. Both Chamberlain and Robertson showed the ability to produce high scoring totals early in their careers and adjust their games later in their careers to make significant contributions on championship teams.

Bernard King's teams did not qualify for the playoffs in 10 of his seasons--but in his six playoff appearances King posted some awesome numbers. In the 1984 playoffs King averaged 34.8 ppg, including 42.6 ppg versus the Detroit Pistons, the second best series average ever at the time. He scored 40-plus points in the last four games of the five game series (a streak equaled later by Jordan and second only to West's 1965 exploits). King blew out his knee the next spring but still won the 1985 scoring title.

He missed one complete season and most of a second rehabilitating but persevered to become the first player with a reconstructed ACL to appear in an All-Star Game. That may not seem like a big deal in 2002 but at that time such injuries were always career altering and frequently career ending.

King missed the entire 1991-92 season due to another knee injury but returned for his swan song in 1992-93 with the Nets. He averaged 2.7 ppg in three playoff games that year. Why is that significant? It lowered his career playoff scoring average from 27.2 ppg, which would currently rank sixth all-time, to 24.5 ppg, which is not in the top ten.

Chamberlain, Robertson and King are excellent examples to remember the next time someone takes one or two isolated statistics and attempts to use them to define a player's entire career. The true story is often only revealed in the context of all of the numbers.

A Closer Look at Pro Basketball's Greatest Playoff Scorers
Player Playoff Pts. Rank Play. PPG Rank Reg. PPG Diff.







Michael Jordan 5987 1 33.4 1 31.5 1.9
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 5762 2 24.3 NR 24.6 -.3
Julius Erving 4580 3 24.2 NR 24.2 0
Jerry West 4457 4 29.1 3 27.0 2.1
Karl Malone 4341 5 26.6 7 25.9 0.7
Larry Bird 3897 6 23.8 NR 24.3 -.5
Elgin Baylor 3623 10 27.0 6 27.4 -.4
Shaquille O'Neal 2956 NR 28.2 4 27.7 .5
Rick Barry 2870 NR 27.3 5 24.8 2.5
Allen Iverson 1213 NR 30.3 2 26.2 4.1







Selected Others












Wilt Chamberlain 3607 NR 22.5 NR 30.1 -7.6
Reggie Miller 2445 NR 23.5 NR 19.5 4.0
Oscar Robertson 1910 NR 22.2 NR 25.7 -3.5
Bernard King 687 NR 24.5 NR 22.5 2.0

Player
Pl.> Reg. Pl. P/48 Reg. P/48 Pl. FG% Reg. FG%








Michael Jordan
11 38.4 39.2 48.7 50.5
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 12 31.2 32.1 53.3 55.9
Julius Erving
7 29.9 31.9 49.6 50.6
Jerry West
9 33.8 33.1 46.9 47.4
Karl Malone
10 30.9 33.3 46.6 52.4
Larry Bird
4 27.2 30.4 47.2 49.6
Elgin Baylor
6 31.6 32.8 43.9 43.1
Shaquille O'Neal
5 33.7 35.0 56.6 57.7
Rick Barry
4 33.9 31.8 44.4 45.7
Allen Iverson
2 32.0 30.9 39.2 42.6








Selected Others













Wilt Chamberlain
0 22.9 31.5 52.2 54.0
Reggie Miller
8 29.0 26.7 45.6 47.6
Oscar Robertson
4 25.0 29.2 46.0 48.5
Bernard King
4 35.3 32.1 55.9 51.8

Notes:

Statistics do not include 2001-02 season.

Players listed in order of career playoff points.

The first 10 players rank in the top ten in career playoff points
and/or career playoff ppg.

Statistics for Erving and Barry include ABA seasons.

"Diff." refers to the differential between playoff ppg and regular
season ppg.

"Pl.>Reg." indicates how many seasons a player's playoff ppg
exceeded his regular season ppg.

"P/48" refers to points per 48 minutes.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:46 AM

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