Zach Harper Figures Out that a Review of the Past 30 NBA Drafts Shows That Tanking Does not Work
In a recent article, Zach Harper discussed a "stunning discovery" that he just made. I have removed the distracting bold font that Harper used for some of the sentences in the following passages, but because I am quoting him directly I am not responsible for his awkward writing style and inconsistent capitalization regarding the NBA Finals: "Something interesting I noticed recently was how little getting a top-5 pick in the NBA Draft directly helps you get to the NBA Finals, let alone win the whole thing." Harper looked at the NBA Drafts from 1996-2025 and observed that--contrary to the popular narrative that tanking helps teams win later--"only 21 of the top-5 picks made it to the finals with the teams that drafted or traded for them on draft night. That's a 14 percent success rate. Also, those numbers are a bit inflated because two of the draftees were James Wiseman (Warriors) and Darko Milicic (Pistons), who contributed almost nothing to their teams." Harper asks, "So what does all of this mean?" before concluding, "I actually don't know if I have a theory or a conclusion to any of this. I would have assumed the success rate for a top-five pick getting his team to the finals was higher than it is. But I looked it up, so there you go. Share with your friends and make outlandish statements with said information. That's what we're here for."
Considering Harper's nonsensical comments about Russell Westbrook and his giggling while his Sirius XM NBA co-host Amin Elhassan mocked Bob Cousy plus Harper's disjointed, rambling account of Robert Parish's career in The Basketball 100, it is not surprising that (1) Harper thinks that his research about the NBA Draft is original or surprising and (2) Harper cannot figure out what to make of his "stunning discovery."
As I noted 12 years ago, Derek Thompson wrote an article in the April 2014 issue of The Atlantic explaining that tanking does not work. Here is Thompson's conclusion that Harper apparently has never seen and could not figure out on his own:
Nearly 30 years of data tell a crystal-clear story: a truly awful team has never once metamorphosed into a championship squad through the draft. The last team to draft No. 1 and then win a championship (at any point thereafter) was the San Antonio Spurs, which lucked into the pick (Tim Duncan) back in 1997 when the team’s star center, David Robinson, missed all but six games the previous season because of injuries. The teams with the top three picks in any given draft are almost twice as likely to never make the playoffs within four years—the term of an NBA rookie contract, before the player reaches free agency—as they are to make it past the second round.
Why are teams and their fans drawn to a strategy that reliably leads to even deeper failure? The gospel of tanking is born from three big assumptions: that mediocrity is a trap; that scouting is a science; and that bad organizations are one savior away from being great. All three assumptions are common, not only to sports, but also to business and to life. And all three assumptions are typically wrong.
"Stat gurus" claim to only care about objective data, so it is interesting that so many "stat gurus" insist that tanking works despite decades of data proving otherwise. I spent years blasting Sam Hinkie's Philadelphia 76ers for their blatant tanking, and I declared "Tanking to the Top" is Not What the 76ers Have Done. I implored NBA Commissioner Adam Silver to penalize tanking teams because even if tanking worked it is damaging to the game and it rips off the paying customers. In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I explained that even though the Oklahoma City Thunder tanked for a couple seasons (which is not a good thing for them or the league), they built their championship roster without tanking:
Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension.
The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren.
Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.
It is widely assumed and reported that the San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain Victor Wembanyama, but--as I noted in my 2026 Western Conference Finals preview--Gregg Popovich publicly rejected the notion that tanking is something that the Spurs do or would consider doing. It must be said that it looked like the Spurs were tanking, but it should be noted that even after they drafted Wembanyama and thus presumably had no incentive to tank they went 22-60, the same record that they posted in the season before drafting Wembanyama.
Perhaps Harper should not be blamed too much for taking so long to notice the data showing that tanking does not lead to championship success; after all, as many as 10 NBA teams tanked last season, so even people who are presumably smarter than Harper did not understand that tanking does not work.
Labels: Adam Silver, Derek Thompson, Gregg Popovich, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, San Antonio Spurs, tanking, The Atlantic, Victor Wembanyama, Zach Harper
posted by David Friedman @ 3:32 PM
