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Thursday, July 25, 2024

Russell Westbrook Adds Depth, Energy, and Playmaking to the Denver Nuggets

At the urging of three-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets signed 2017 NBA regular season MVP Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets did not have to give up anything for Westbrook, who was waived by the Utah Jazz after the Jazz acquired him in a sign and trade deal with the L.A. Clippers.

Westbrook spent the first 11 seasons of his career with the Oklahoma City Thunder before being traded to the Houston Rockets in 2019 for Chris Paul and four first round draft picks. Westbrook's stay in Houston lasted just one season, as his serious approach to the game--playing hard consistently and showing up on time for practices and games--did not mesh well with the much more casual approach favored by James Harden. The Rockets traded Westbrook to the Washington Wizards in 2020 for John Wall and a first round draft pick. Westbrook averaged 22.2 ppg, 11.7 apg, and 11.5 rpg for the Wizards in 2020-21, capturing his third assists title in four years while leading the Wizards to their only playoff appearance between 2018 and 2024. Westbrook also broke Oscar Robertson's record for career triple doubles.

After the 2021 season, Westbrook landed with the L.A. Lakers as part of a five team trade. The LeBron James-Anthony Davis-Russell Westbrook trio could have been a force to reckon with if the Lakers committed to playing defense and then pushing the ball up the court at a fast pace after defensive stops, but James prefers to slow the game down, monopolize the ball, and then find scapegoats after his team loses. Westbrook and Coach Frank Vogel became the prime scapegoats for James and his media sycophants. The Lakers fired Vogel in 2022, just two years after he led the Lakers to the championship, and then they traded Westbrook to the Utah Jazz in February 2023. The Jazz waived Westrook, who finished the season with the L.A. Clippers. Westbrook averaged 15.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 7.5 apg overall in the 2022-23 season, and he averaged 23.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and 7.4 apg during the Clippers' first round loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers acquired James Harden early during the 2023-24 season, and Westbrook accepted being relegated to a reserve role. Westbrook averaged 11.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 4.5 apg while shooting .454 from the field. He finished tied for seventh in the voting for Sixth Man of the Year. Not surprisingly, the Clippers flamed out again in the playoffs, with Kawhi Leonard getting hurt, Harden putting up his typical "concert tour" field goal percentages, and Paul "I call myself Playoff P" George disappearing as usual. 

In short, Westbrook has spent the past four seasons with organizations that are not serious about consistently putting together a championship caliber program: he should get a special award for carrying the "Wheeze-hards" to the playoffs, the Lakers have not advanced past the first round in three of the four seasons after winning the 2020 "bubble title," and the Clippers put way too much faith in Leonard's balky knees, George's flimsy playoff resume, and Harden's documented record of disappearing in the games that matter most.

Westbrook will benefit tremendously from leaving teams engulfed in drama to go to a team that is serious about winning but a bit shorthanded now due to salary cap constraints; in the past two years, the Nuggets have lost Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, two key rotation players from their 2023 championship team. Westbrook will not replace their "3 and D" contributions, but he is an elite scorer, rebounder, and playmaker who consistently plays hard and who would do anything to help his team. The Nuggets have a great organization from ownership to management to the coaching staff to the tone set by Jokic, and Westbrook will fit in perfectly with a team that is serious about winning.

Westbrook's critics dismiss his rebounding numbers as stat padding. It is evident that Westbrook's critics--including but not limited to Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper--either have an agenda or do not understand basketball very well, because it is easy to demonstrate (1) that Westbrook's rebounds are not fungible and (2) there are many real, documented examples of stat padding that the league and its media partners are quite happy to ignore. 

Westbrook will be a great energizer as a sixth man for the Nuggets, and he is still capable of being a starter as well.

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:15 PM

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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108

The Brooklyn Nets kicked off the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament by defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers 115-108 to clinch the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Nets will face the Boston Celtics in a best of seven first round series, while the Cavaliers can still earn the eighth seed on Friday night by defeating the winner of tomorrow night's Atlanta-Charlotte game (the loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention). 

The Play-In Tournament exists in an alternate universe in which the statistics do not count and the games often are not competitive or memorable. At first, this game looked like it would follow that template, as Brooklyn led 40-20 after the first quarter while Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant amassed gaudy numbers that, technically, do not exist. The Cavaliers are an injury-riddled team, but they are also gritty and well-coached; after falling behind 72-50 in the third quarter, they chiseled away until they cut the margin to six points (99-93) after an Evan Mobley dunk with 5:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. Durant answered with back to back jump shots, and even though the Cavaliers battled until the final buzzer they never again got closer than six points. 

The Nets led 57-43 at halftime after shooting .590 from the field, compared to .354 first half field goal shooting by Cleveland. The Cavaliers shot and played much better in the second half, but that kind of slow start is difficult to overcome; contrary to popular belief, the NBA is much more of a first quarter league than a fourth quarter league, as I explained during last year's Play-In Tournament: "The tone is often set in the first quarter, and that is also when the matchup advantages that will decide the game are often identified and probed."

Kyrie Irving scored a game-high 34 points on 12-15 field goal shooting, and he also had a game-high 12 assists. Irving scored 20 first half points on 9-9 field goal shooting, and he made his first 12 field goal attempts before missing his final three field goal attempts. Durant finished with 25 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, and he contributed 11 assists. Bruce Brown had a major impact with 18 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. Darius Garland led the Cavaliers with 34 points on 13-24 field goal shooting, tying Irving for game-high scoring honors. Mobley added 19 points on 9-13 field goal shooting.

This game is likely a microcosm of what Brooklyn's playoff run will look like: the Nets have two sensational stars who can dominate with their precise shooting and deft passing, but the Nets lack depth, interior defensive presence, and a commitment to transition defense.

During last Sunday's Nets-Pacers telecast, Jeff Van Gundy lamented the poor transition defense of both teams, and he noted that people who say that NBA defenses should take away the three pointer first do not understand NBA analytics; he asserted that a defense's first priority should be to take away paint points, the second priority should be to give up as few free throws as possible, and then the third priority should be to guard the three point line. Van Gundy also quoted Hubie Brown, who often said (to players he coached, and during telecasts as a commentator), "If you are not on the board and you are not getting back on defense, where are you?"

The Nets dominated the Cavaliers at first, but then let the Cavaliers back into the game because the Nets lack the necessary defensive structure and continuity to maintain control throughout the game. Can Ben Simmons minimize those problems/weaknesses? Simmons has not played NBA basketball for almost a year, and it is not certain when he will be mentally and/or physically ready to play. If he is ready to play during the playoffs, it is not clear how many minutes he can handle, or how effective he can be during those minutes. His size, defense, and playmaking could make a difference if he can play 30-35 mpg while producing a line like 16-8-8 (his career regular season averages), but at this point it seems doubtful that we will see that Simmons during the 2022 playoffs.

The Nets are very dangerous against any team in a one game scenario, but they do not look like a team that will win a seven game series against an elite team.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:38 PM

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