Cavaliers Take a Step Back By Swapping Garland for Harden
Two teams that have both fallen short of expectations decided that swapping former All-Star guards will solve their problems (or at least reduce their problems to a a more manageable size); the Cleveland Cavaliers seemed poised to be championship contenders this season after leading the Eastern Conference with 64 wins last season, while the L.A. Clippers had high hopes after pushing the Denver Nuggets to seven games in the first round of last season's playoffs--but the Cavaliers are clinging to the Eastern Conference's fifth seed while the Clippers started the season 5-16 before getting rid of Chris Paul and are now battling for the Western Conference's 10th seed (and final Play-In Tournament berth).
Cleveland sent Darius Garland and a 2026 second round draft pick to L.A. for James Harden. Harden's signature move is his step back--which was called a travel when the NBA at least loosely enforced the traveling rule and which bears little resemblance to the step back moves perfected by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry--and that is a fitting description of this move for the Cavaliers: a step back.
On paper, Harden looks like the superior player. He has averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.3 apg in his 17 season NBA career. Harden is an 11-time All-Star who has received eight All-NBA Team selections (including six First Team nods).
He has finished in the top five in regular season MVP voting six times,
including winning the 2018 award. During his seven year NBA
career, Garland has averaged 18.8 ppg and 6.7 apg while shooting .453
from the field. He is a two-time All-Star (2022, 2025) who has never
made the All-NBA Team or received a regular season MVP vote.
The Cavaliers rank 11th in defensive field goal percentage but just 28th in defensive three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers rank 13th in rebounding, fifth in scoring and eighth in field goal percentage. Last season, the Cavaliers led the NBA in scoring while ranking second
in field goal percentage, sixth in rebounding, third in defensive field
goal percentage, and 13th in defensive three point field goal
percentage. Those numbers--and the eye test--demonstrate that this season the Cavaliers have fallen off in terms of rebounding, overall defense, and perimeter defense while maintaining their status as a top offensive team; thus, the Cavaliers need to add players who are tough, physical, and mobile to bolster their paint presence and their shaky perimeter defense. Harden does not help the Cavaliers in any of their areas of need. He will throw some flashy lob passes to big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but his overdribbling will not help overall offensive continuity and will make it difficult to play him alongside All-Star Donovan Mitchell, the team's primary scorer and ballhandler. Harden is a stout, physical defender when switched on to big men in the paint, but he is an awful perimeter defender whose lackadaisical effort at that end of the court will put a lot of pressure on Mobley and Allen to clean up his mistakes and blown assignments.
Harden is 10 years older than Garland, the largest age gap in an All-Star for All-Star trade in NBA history. The Cavaliers made a win now move with a player who has not won before and is unlikely to be a key contributor to a team focused on winning now. There are two consistent themes throughout Harden's career:
1) He chases money and individual accolades more than the opportunity for team success; as a result he often becomes unhappy with his current team because he is dissatisfied
with his contract, which results in him forcing his way out. In 2012, Harden rejected being the third option for an Oklahoma City squad that had just reached the NBA Finals, so the Thunder dealt him to the Houston Rockets. Harden's Houston career ended in 2021 when he sulked and did not play hard until the Rockets shipped him to his desired destination, Brooklyn. In 2022, Harden complained and whined until Brooklyn traded him to Philadelphia. Harden played just 79 regular season games for the 76ers before he forced his way out of Philadelphia in 2023 to get paid by the L.A. Clippers. Cleveland is Harden's sixth team--and his fourth team in the past five years--and he has played more than three seasons for only one of his previous five teams.
2) He disappears in the playoffs. Harden specializes in the "Harden" (a game in which a player has more turnovers than field goals made) and the "concert tour" (a game in which a player's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates). In 2022, I summarized his horrific elimination game resume, and in the next three years he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025.
It is not logical for the Cavaliers to assume, believe, or hope that
acquiring Harden improves their chances of advancing past the second
round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. I
can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss
now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words "James
Harden disappeared" and "James Harden scored just xxx second half
points."
Harden has been more available and durable than Garland, but that availability and durability do not matter much when Harden disappears in the games that matter the most. The Clippers understand that they are not winning the 2026 NBA championship, and that it will be an uphill battle for them to even win one playoff series, so it is logical for the Clippers to get younger while avoiding dealing with Harden's large contract, moody attitude, and annual playoff collapses. If Garland becomes a dependable second option and playmaker alongside Kawhi Leonard--who has played at an MVP level for the past few weeks--then the Clippers can retool for next year; if Garland cannot get healthy or does not mesh well with Leonard, he is young enough and talented enough that the Clippers can trade him either in exchange for players who fit alongside Leonard or to stockpile draft picks if the Clippers choose to pull the plug on the Leonard era.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:42 AM
Cleveland Versus Indiana Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Cleveland (68-14) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)
Season series: Indiana, 3-1
Indiana can win if…the Pacers' high octane offense overwhelms the Cavaliers, and if the Pacers get enough timely defensive stops. During the regular season, the Pacers ranked third in the NBA in field goal percentage (.488) and seventh in scoring (117.4 ppg) but just 17th in points allowed (115.1 ppg) and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage (.474); in their 4-1 first round victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers maintained their typical offensive production (117.8 ppg, .499 FG%) while holding the Bucks to 110.2 ppg on .453 field goal shooting.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in regular season scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), and he led the Pacers in scoring versus the Bucks as well (19.8 ppg on .556 field goal shooting). Tyrese Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers' offense go, averaging 17.6 ppg and a league-leading 11.6 apg in the first round. Myles Turner averaged just 4.8 rpg in the first round, but he scored 16.8 ppg on .509 field goal shooting while leading the Pacers in blocked shots (2.2 bpg). Andrew Nembhard is a pesky defender (team-high 1.4 spg during the first round) and solid scorer (15.0 ppg on .492 field goal shooting).
The Pacers are not consistently great defensively, but they have some good individual defensive players, so they are capable of getting key defensive stops.
Cleveland will win because...the Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and have better offensive/defensive balance. Collectively, the Cavaliers have no weaknesses: they led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), third in defensive field goal percentage (.454), sixth in rebounding (45.4 rpg), and 12th in points allowed.
Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring (24.0 ppg) during the regular season and during Cleveland's first round sweep of the Miami Heat (23.8 ppg; Darius Garland averaged 24.0 ppg but only played in two games)--but the best thing that he did this season went beyond the boxscore: he enthusiastically embraced the notion that for the Cavaliers to reach their potential it is important for Evan Mobley and other players to have larger roles. Mobley scored a career-high 18.5 ppg and he became the first Cavalier to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Darius Garland averaged 20.6 ppg and earned his second All-Star selection, joining Mitchell and Mobley. Jarrett Allen led the NBA in field goal percentage (.706) and he topped the Cavaliers in rebounding (9.7 rpg).
The Cavaliers' point differential (9.5 ppg) not only ranked second in the league this season, but it is on par with the point differentials of all-time great championship teams such as the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1991 Chicago Bulls, and the 1997 Chicago Bulls. There are three reasons that the Cavaliers are not compared to such teams:
1) The Oklahoma City Thunder performed at an even more dominant level this season.
2) The Cavaliers have not validated their regular season productivity by winning a title.
3) All-time great teams almost always have at least one player 6-6 or taller who is a dominant individual performer. The 1986 Celtics had Larry Bird leading a roster stacked with Hall of Famers. The 1991 and 1997 Bulls had Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The Cavaliers' best player is Donovan Mitchell, who is listed at 6-3 but is probably closer to 6-1. Mitchell has never made the All-NBA First Team or finished higher than sixth in MVP voting (though it is possible that he may check off both of those boxes this season).
The Cavaliers may prove to be an ensemble championship team like Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004--but until the Cavaliers win a title they will not be discussed alongside championship teams even though they have the statistical profile of a dominant championship team.
One important step toward gaining such recognition is beating an Indiana team that is very good, but not great.
Other things to consider: Indiana won the season series between these teams 3-1, but the Pacers at full strength barely beat the Cavaliers 114-112 on April 10 when the Cavaliers rested all of their starters except Jarrett Allen; the Pacers' 126-118 double overtime win on April 13 happened on the last day of the season when both teams rested their starters. With both teams at full strength, the Pacers' offensive firepower may be enough to win a couple games, but over the course of a seven game series the Pacers cannot match the Cavaliers.
Cleveland will defeat Indiana in six games.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 3:56 PM
Things We Learned from the Celtics' 120-117 Win Versus the Cavaliers
The Boston Celtics built a 21 point lead, withstood a 34-15 run over a seven minute span in the third quarter, and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 120-117 in Boston to end Cleveland's season-opening 15 game winning streak. The 15-1 Cavaliers still have the best record in the NBA, 2.5 games ahead of the 12-3 Celtics. It must be emphasized that the Celtics won this game without the
services of Kristaps Porzingis, their starting center (and a 2018 All-Star)
who has yet to play this season due to a lower left leg injury. Assuming
that Porzingis makes a full recovery, adding him to the lineup bolsters
the Celtics at both ends of the court because of his rebounding, shot blocking/rim protection, and range shooting.
Jayson Tatum had a masterful all-around game with a team-high 33 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, and seven assists. Al Horford added 20 points and seven rebounds, Derrick White contributed 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and Jaylen Brown chipped in 17 points and a game-high eight assists.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points, Evan Mobley had 22 points and a team-high tying 11 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen scored 10 points while matching Mobley with 11 rebounds. Darius Garland dished for a team-high seven assists but he scored just eight points on 3-21 field goal shooting.
At the end of the 82 game regular season, each game counts the same in the standings, but anyone who follows the NBA knows that some games have a different feel not only for ardent fans but also for the players. "Statement game" is a cliche, but this was without question a measuring stick game for the Cavaliers to see how they stack up with the NBA champion Boston Celtics. Casual fans often call the NBA a fourth quarter league, but the fact is that the NBA is in many respects a first quarter league, because the first quarter sets the tone in terms of matchups, physicality, and general readiness to play. The Celtics jumped out to an 18-8 lead by the 5:36 mark of the first quarter, and they never trailed the rest of the way.
The Celtics shot 14-22 (.636) from three point range in the first
half, their best three point shooting half in the past 25 years. That
level of three point shooting is aberrational and unsustainable, and they shot 8-19 (.421) from beyond the arc in the second half to finish at 22-41 (.537) overall.
The easy hot take is that the Celtics beat the Cavaliers because of their tremendous three point shooting, and that the Celtics have a great chance to win the 2025 championship because they rank first in three point field goals made and first in three point field goals attempted. High volume three point shooting is lauded by "stat gurus" as the
most efficient offensive strategy, but the reality is that it is a high variance strategy, as I explained four years ago:
Offensive efficiency is not all that matters when trying to construct a
championship team: the three point shot produces much more variance
statistically than shots taken closer to the basket, meaning that a team
that shoots .380 from three point range may shoot .250 from three point
range in one game and then .510 from three point range the next game.
If a team shoots a high volume of three pointers then it will almost
certainly lose when shooting .250 from three point range, but that team
is not assured of victory even when shooting .510 from three point
range: a team that relies too heavily on three point shooting does not
have a backup plan to use when those shots are not falling, but that
team's opponents may be able to overcome giving up .510 three point
shooting by forcing turnovers, winning the rebound battle, and attacking
the paint for high percentage shots.
Last season, the
Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in
rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. In the article cited above, I
debunked the notion that high volume three point shooting defined the
success of the Golden State Warriors, the team that is most closely associated with the NBA's three point revolution in the past decade or so:
There is a false narrative that the Golden State Warriors proved that a
three point shooting team can win an NBA title. The Warriors proved
nothing of the sort. From 2015-2019, the Warriors ranked first, third,
first, third, and third in defensive field goal percentage; not only did
they have a backup plan if they suffered from cold three point
shooting: they had a primary plan, namely make it very difficult for
their opponents to score. Also, the Warriors did not become a
championship dynasty until they added Kevin Durant, who added deadly
midrange scoring (and, to be sure, another three point shooter) to the
three point marksmanship provided by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
I wrote that article in 2020, so it is worth adding that the
2022 Golden State Warriors--who beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals--ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and seventh in rebounding.
"Stat
gurus" often tout themselves as emotionally detached objective
analysts, but in fact they speak and behave as if they are members of a
cult that propagates rigid tenets regardless of what the
factual evidence shows (this is part of a larger societal trend of
"experts" who insist that their deeply held beliefs are correct even if
those beliefs defy not only common sense but also the facts). This season's Celtics have dropped to 12th in points allowed, 20th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in rebounding. The difference between the Celtics and many of the other teams that have low rankings in those categories is that the Celtics proved last season that they have the necessary personnel to rebound and defend at a high level; that being said, they must get to work in those areas, because they are unlikely to repeat as champions unless they reestablish their defensive identity and their paint presence at both ends of the court. In that regard, it is interesting to note that the
Cavaliers outscored the Celtics in the paint 60-36. If Garland had performed anywhere close to his usual standard, then the Cavaliers would have won even with the Celtics shooting an outlandish three point percentage.
The Celtics shot 18-35 (.514) in the paint, which
demonstrates two things: (1) when the Celtics attacked the paint they
were efficient, and (2) the Celtics
should attack the paint more often instead of relying so heavily on high
variance three point shooting. The 2025 championship recipe for the Celtics is (1) attack the paint more often than they are doing now, (2) shore up their leaky defense, and (3) utilize the three point shot effectively based on time/score/overall game situation as opposed to seeking to attempt at least 50 three pointers a game (a stated goal of Coach Joe Mazzulla, who has done a wonderful job overall but who seems a little bit too obsessed with three point shot attempts as an indicator of offensive efficiency).
We are already nearly 20% through the 2024-25 NBA regular season, so it
is not too early to at least make preliminary assessments of teams and
players. Here is something to clip and save: the 11-4 Oklahoma City Thunder currently rank first in defensive field goal percentage and second in points allowed, but just 23rd in rebounding. Will the Thunder's stout defense be enough to make up for their lack of size and their weakness on the glass? The Cavaliers are similarly weak in rebounding (24th) and they are not in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage (12th) or points allowed (13th). We will know more about these teams after they have played a larger sample size of games, but these rankings and trends bear watching, because at this point neither the Cavaliers nor the Celtics are defending or rebounding at a championship level. By the way, the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are flying underneath the radar with an 8-7 record but they rank fifth in points allowed, sixth in defensive field goal percentage, and 11th in rebounding, numbers that suggest they will finish higher in the standings than they are right now.
The above analysis should not be taken to diminish the value of Boston's win over Cleveland. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already proven that they can lead the Celtics to victory against elite teams in a playoff series: their Celtics have won two Eastern Conference Finals (2022, 2024) and one NBA championship (2024). The Celtics demonstrated that they can defend and rebound at an elite level. In contrast, this version of the Cavaliers has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs, and must prove that they are capable of beating elite teams in a playoff series.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM
Cavs “Let Em Know,” Make Magic Disappear in Hard Fought Game Seven
The Cleveland Cavaliers' 2024 slogan is "Let Em Know," and on Sunday afternoon the Cavaliers let everyone know that they could win a playoff series without LeBron James for the first time since the early 1990s when the team's franchise players were Mark Price and Brad Daugherty. The Orlando Magic built a 49-31 lead late in the first half in Cleveland before the Cavaliers pulled off the largest NBA game seven comeback since at least 1998 (which is as far back as such records go) and emerged with a 106-94 victory to earn the right to face the Boston Celtics in the second round.
The NBA should not need gimmicks like the NBA Cup or the Play-In Tournament
to convince players and teams that it is important to play hard; it
should suffice to review what happened in this series: the home team won
all seven games, including an epic comeback in the series clincher--and
the Cavaliers enjoyed homecourt advantage because they finished one
game ahead of the Magic in the 82 game regular season marathon. Of
course, the Cavaliers could have finished two games ahead of the Magic
if the Cavaliers had not tanked the fourth quarter of their final
regular season game, and it could be argued that karma should have
dictated that the Cavaliers lose to their hand-picked first round
opponent--but the larger point is that the Cavaliers took the regular
season seriously overall, and earned homecourt advantage for a first
round series that could have easily gone the other way had game seven
been played in Orlando.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 39 points, dished for a team-high five assists, and committed just one turnover in 45 minutes. Mitchell attacked the hoop relentlessly and he made 15 of his hard-earned 17 free throw attempts to offset his 11-27 field goal shooting. Add in his 50 point performance in game six, and Mitchell posted the second highest combined game six/game seven scoring total in NBA playoff history, falling just one point short of Allen Iverson's record.
Caris LeVert contributed 15 points off of the bench on 5-9 field goal shooting while starters Max Strus (13 points), Darius Garland (12 points), and Evan Mobley (11 points) also scored in double figures. Strus nailed three treys, Garland led Cleveland with 10 fourth quarter points, and Mobley had a game-high 16 rebounds while also anchoring Cleveland's paint defense with a game-high five blocked shots (one more than Orlando's entire team had).
Paolo Banchero had a monster game for the Magic, finishing with 38 points plus a game-high tying 16 rebounds, but he shot just 10-28 from the field and seemed to wear down in the second half, producing 14 points and eight rebounds while shooting 4-15 from the field. Wendell Carter Jr. had a solid game (13 points, seven rebounds), but Jalen Suggs (10 points on 2-13 field goal shooting) and Franz Wagner (six points on 1-15 field goal shooting, the worst FG% in game seven history) struggled mightily.
Cleveland has a rich sports history that includes four
AAFC championships (1946-49), four NFL championships (1950, 1954-55,
1964), two World Series titles (1920, 1948), and one NBA championship (2016)--but
that history also includes some fiascos that are so infamous and
painful that they have become depressing catchword phrases that any
Cleveland sports fan knows by heart: "Red Right 88," "The Drive," "The Fumble," "The Shot." For most of the first half, this game seven seemed destined to be added to the above litany of sports meltdowns and disasters as the Magic looked unbeatable until the Cavaliers rallied just before halftime to cut the margin to a manageable 10 points (53-43). This game was a tale of two halves, because the Cavaliers outscored the Magic 63-41 in the second half while outshooting Orlando from the field, .542-.256. Mitchell reflected that tale in microcosm, scoring 15 first half points on 3-13 field goal shooting before pouring in 24 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting.
Mitchell's impact went beyond his numbers. He demonstrated patient and productive leadership as he encouraged his teammates--most notably Garland--to keep shooting. After the game, Mitchell said that his message to Garland was simple: I don't give a (bleep) what happened before or if the crowd is booing--just trust the work you put in and shoot your shots. Mitchell hastened to add that at other times in the season Garland pumped him up. Mitchell did not show up his coach, throw his teammates under the bus, or spend more time whining to the referees than playing the game.
There is understandable skepticism that a team featuring two small guards like Mitchell and Garland can win a championship--and as someone who has consistently insisted that size matters in the NBA I share that skepticism--but I would caution those who insist that the Cavaliers should get rid of either Mitchell or Garland to consider that such a move is more likely to be a step backward than a step forward. With the assets that the Cavaliers would be willing and able to package, they are unlikely to receive more value in return than what they would be sending out. Mitchell is not an all-time great player like Nikola Jokic--but the few all-time great players who are playing now are not available. Mitchell has repeatedly proven that he can be highly productive on the sport's biggest stage--and even more significant than Mitchell's final game seven numbers is the fact that he did
not quit after his slow start, nor did he wilt under the pressure of the
moment. Several players who have won more honors than Mitchell have an established track record of disappearing
in big games.
The path to winning an NBA title when your best player is a player of Mitchell's caliber is to build a deep and versatile roster that can wear down teams that have more top end talent but less depth. There are not many such championship teams in NBA history, but the 2004 Pistons and the 1979 SuperSonics are two examples. Mitchell is no less talented than 2004 Finals MVP Chauncey Billups or 1979 Finals MVP Dennis Johnson. Billups and Johnson were better than Mitchell as playmakers and defenders, but Mitchell is a much more dynamic scorer. The Cavaliers have a young, solid nucleus of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, LeVert, Strus, and Jarrett Allen (who missed the final three games versus Orlando due to a rib injury). The continued development of that core combined with shrewd drafting and one or two free agent signings or trades could lift the Cavaliers from barely being in the top four in the East to legitimately fighting for the Eastern Conference title. It is a positive sign that the Cavaliers are already one of the league's best defensive teams, which means that (1) the coaching staff led by J.B. Bickerstaff knows how to effectively teach defensive principles, and (2) the team's young players have bought into the importance of playing good defense.
Unless Mitchell insists that he wants to leave--in which case he will get his way, because that is how the modern NBA works for All-Star players--the Cavaliers should not trade him. Players who score 39 points in elimination games are rare, and their value cannot be matched by acquiring a package of role players and draft picks. The Cavaliers should not part with Garland, either, unless they can get a 6-6 guard who is an elite defender and competent range shooter to pair with Mitchell--but such players are hard to find and not likely to be available on the trade market.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero
posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM
Maxey Comes to Life in Fourth Quarter as 76ers Hold off Cavaliers, 104-97
The Philadelphia 76ers had lost six straight home games before defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, 104-97. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers in scoring (24 points) and assists (five), and Cameron Payne added 16 points in just 20 minutes off of the bench. Jarret Allen had 24 points and nine rebounds for the Cavaliers, and Darius Garland contributed 20 points plus a game-high nine assists. The 76ers outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-43, and their bench players outscored the Cavaliers' bench players, 34-20; combine those numbers with the Cavaliers' dismal three point shooting (8-27, .296), and that was too much for Cleveland to overcome.
Each team was without their best player: the 76ers' Joel Embiid has now missed 10 straight games as he recovers from knee surgery, while the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell sat
out his second straight game due to an illness.
Hubie Brown handled the ESPN color commentary. His previous ESPN/ABC game was almost a month ago when the New York Knicks routed the Miami Heat. As usual, Brown's pregame analysis was right on point, as he highlighted the key contributions that Allen and Garland made as the Cavaliers went 18-3 since January 3 to vault to second place in the Eastern Conference; those players were Cleveland's best players tonight, albeit in a losing effort. Brown mentioned that Maxey is attempting 20 shots per game but he is averaging nearly 26 ppg. In this game, Maxey was not as efficient as usual--he shot just 9-22 (.409) from the field--but he took over in the fourth quarter with 15 points on 5-9 field goal shooting.
As the Cavaliers took the lead early in the first quarter, Brown noted that the Cavaliers are fourth in the NBA in point differential, which he called a key statistic (and which Brown has long recognized as a key statistic). Brown praised the Cavaliers' depth while sounding a cautionary note about the impact of Mitchell's absence: "The Cavaliers are 10 deep and they can withstand injuries, but Mitchell is different because he is your closer." Brown said that even though the Cavaliers had a successful regular season last year, the organization was not satisfied and decided to become a "beep beep" team that pushes the pace.
The 76ers were ahead 40-38 midway through the second quarter, with their bench players providing 21 of their 40 points. The 76ers led 53-50 at halftime, with their bench outscoring Cleveland's 25-7. The 76ers rank near the bottom of the league in bench scoring, so this
output is unusual and proved to be a major factor in the game's outcome. Brown pointed out that the 76ers held the Cavaliers to nine three point field goals attempted in the first half, which is a low number for a Cleveland team that averages nearly 37 three point field goal attempts per game.
Both teams shot poorly in the third quarter as the 76ers outscored the Cavaliers, 21-20. In the fourth quarter, Maxey did what an All-Star is supposed to do: take over. In his postgame interview with ESPN's Monica McNutt, Maxey admitted that he was tired after playing 40 minutes in yesterday's 110-96 loss to the New York Knicks, and he said that he told his teammates throughout the game to just keep the game close because if they did then he would have something special in the fourth quarter. What Maxey did versus the Cavaliers highlights the difference between being a player who is capable of scoring 25 points in a given game, and being a player who averages 25 points per game for a season; NBA players are very talented and even many of the ones who do not get a lot of minutes or shot attempts on a regular basis can score 25 points in a game if provided with sufficient minutes and shot attempts--but very few players can log heavy minutes over the course of an 82 game season and consistently produce 25 points per game despite being the focal point of their team's offense and the opposing team's defense.
Trading James Harden to the L.A. Clippers not only bolstered the 76ers' depth while providing the team with additional draft picks, but it also unlocked Maxey's game; in each of the past two playoff runs, Maxey both outscored and outshot Harden, but Maxey's opportunities were limited because of the way that Harden often monopolized the ball. There is no evidence that Maxey will shrink in the playoffs as the second option behind Embiid the way that Harden has spent the better part of a decade shrinking, culminating in last year's game seven debacle versus Boston during which Harden had nine points, five turnovers and three field goals made (a player who has more turnovers than field goals made should be credited with a "Harden"). The Clippers have looked good so far this season, but James Harden in April and May is a different player than James Harden in January and February, as Clippers' fans will soon see firsthand.
The only thing that Maxey cannot do is help Embiid stay healthy and avoid disappearing in the playoffs--Harden's massive flops the past two years helped obscure the reality that Embiid is hardly "Mr. Clutch" in the postseason--but Maxey looks like he is developing into a player who can be a perennial All-Star.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Hubie Brown, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 11:25 PM
Cavaliers Beat Celtics in Overtime For Second Time This Season
The Boston Celtics are the reigning Eastern Conference champions, but early this season the Cleveland Cavaliers have twice beaten the Celtics in overtime thrillers. The Cavaliers won 132-123 in Boston last Friday as Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert each scored 41 points, and tonight the Cavaliers won 114-113 in Cleveland. The 6-1 Cavaliers have stacked up six straight victories after losing to the Toronto Raptors in their season opener, while the 4-3 Celtics are trying to get their footing without injured center Robert Williams and with rookie Coach Joe Mazzulla taking the place of the suspended Ime Udoka.
I have a long (and largely justified) record of being skeptical of young players and young teams until they prove their worth in the postseason crucible, but I must say that the Cavaliers are impressive--and not because of Mitchell's flashy dunks or the team's league-leading three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers are impressive because they rank second in points allowed and because their deep, talented roster plays a very unselfish style of basketball with players repeatedly giving up good shots to get great shots. They must improve their rankings in rebounding (18th) and defensive field goal percentage (11th) to be able to make a deep playoff run, but there are indications that the Cavaliers are willing and able to do what it takes to make progress in both departments.
The Cavaliers play hard at both ends of the court, and even players who are not known as defenders (hello, Donovan Mitchell) are putting forth effort, which is a sign that the team has a strong internal culture and excellent coaching.
It is an encouraging sign that the Cavaliers beat a very good team despite shooting just .420 from the field, including .282 from three point range. Casual fans may believe that blistering three point shooting is why the Golden State Warriors have won four championships in the past eight seasons, but informed observers understand that the Warriors have been an elite defensive team during their dynastic run. The Cavaliers not only held the Celtics to .409 field goal shooting (including .268 from three point range) but they contained both of the Celtics' stars without turning anyone else loose; Jaylen Brown scored 30 points on 10-26 field goal shooting, while Jayson Tatum had 26 points on 8-21 field goal shooting. Meanwhile, all five Cavalier starters scored in double figures, led by Darius Garland (29 points, 12 assists) in his first game back after suffering an eye injury in the first game of the season. Mitchell added 25 points and six assists. Garland and Mitchell did not shoot much better than Tatum and Brown, but any team that has two stars who can play Tatum and Brown to a standstill and generate enough offense to win is dangerous.
It is premature to say how good a team is until the season is at least 20-30 games old; that is a large enough sample size to at least make some preliminary assessments. Wins in October and November do not count in May and June--but winning habits formed in October and November can lay the foundation for success in May and June. If the Cavaliers stay healthy and stay focused on team goals then this team could be very dangerous next summer.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum
posted by David Friedman @ 11:58 PM
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108
The Brooklyn Nets kicked off the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament by defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers 115-108 to clinch the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Nets will face the Boston Celtics in a best of seven first round series, while the Cavaliers can still earn the eighth seed on Friday night by defeating the winner of tomorrow night's Atlanta-Charlotte game (the loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention).
The Play-In Tournament exists in an alternate universe in which the statistics do not count and the games often are not competitive or memorable. At first, this game looked like it would follow that template, as Brooklyn led 40-20 after the first quarter while Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant amassed gaudy numbers that, technically, do not exist. The Cavaliers are an injury-riddled team, but they are also gritty and well-coached; after falling behind 72-50 in the third quarter, they chiseled away until they cut the margin to six points (99-93) after an Evan Mobley dunk with 5:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. Durant answered with back to back jump shots, and even though the Cavaliers battled until the final buzzer they never again got closer than six points.
The Nets led 57-43 at halftime after shooting .590 from the field, compared to .354 first half field goal shooting by Cleveland. The Cavaliers shot and played much better in the second half, but that kind of slow start is difficult to overcome; contrary to popular belief, the NBA is much more of a first quarter league than a fourth quarter league, as I explained during last year's Play-In Tournament: "The tone is often set in the first quarter, and that is also when the matchup advantages that will decide the game are often identified and probed."
Kyrie Irving scored a game-high 34 points on 12-15 field goal shooting, and he also had a game-high 12 assists. Irving scored 20 first half points on 9-9 field goal shooting, and he made his first 12 field goal attempts before missing his final three field goal attempts. Durant finished with 25 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, and he contributed 11 assists. Bruce Brown had a major impact with 18 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. Darius Garland led the Cavaliers with 34 points on 13-24 field goal shooting, tying Irving for game-high scoring honors. Mobley added 19 points on 9-13 field goal shooting.
This game is likely a microcosm of what Brooklyn's playoff run will look like: the Nets have two sensational stars who can dominate with their precise shooting and deft passing, but the Nets lack depth, interior defensive presence, and a commitment to transition defense.
During last Sunday's Nets-Pacers telecast, Jeff Van Gundy lamented the poor transition defense of both teams, and he noted that people who say that NBA defenses should take away the three pointer first do not understand NBA analytics; he asserted that a defense's first priority should be to take away paint points, the second priority should be to give up as few free throws as possible, and then the third priority should be to guard the three point line. Van Gundy also quoted Hubie Brown, who often said (to players he coached, and during telecasts as a commentator), "If you are not on the board and you are not getting back on defense, where are you?"
The Nets dominated the Cavaliers at first, but then let the Cavaliers back into the game because the Nets lack the necessary defensive structure and continuity to maintain control throughout the game. Can Ben Simmons minimize those problems/weaknesses? Simmons has not played NBA basketball for almost a year, and it is not certain when he will be mentally and/or physically ready to play. If he is ready to play during the playoffs, it is not clear how many minutes he can handle, or how effective he can be during those minutes. His size, defense, and playmaking could make a difference if he can play 30-35 mpg while producing a line like 16-8-8 (his career regular season averages), but at this point it seems doubtful that we will see that Simmons during the 2022 playoffs.
The Nets are very dangerous against any team in a one game scenario, but they do not look like a team that will win a seven game series against an elite team.
Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Bruce Brown, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
posted by David Friedman @ 11:38 PM
