20 Second Timeout

Timberwolves Reclaim Homecourt Advantage With 102-97 Win Versus Warriors

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 36 points--including 28 in the second half, 13 of which came in the fourth quarter--as the Minnesota Timberwolves reclaimed homecourt advantage with a 102-97 game three win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle contributed a triple double (24 points, game-high 12 assists, 10 rebounds), and Jaden McDaniels added 15 points while playing his usual tough defense. The Warriors led for most of the second half and were ahead 82-77 with 8:16 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Timberwolves went on a 16-4 run to take control. The Timberwolves outscored the Warriors 33-24 in the fourth quarter.

The biggest story of this series so far is the strained left hamstring suffered by two-time regular season MVP and 2022 Finals MVP Stephen Curry, who played just 13 minutes in Golden State's 99-88 game one win before being sidelined. Sans the injured Curry, the Warriors lost game two 117-93 but returned home owning homecourt advantage. Jimmy Butler did his part in game three, scoring a team-high 33 points, grabbing seven rebounds, and dishing for a team-high seven assists. Jonathan Kuminga, who fell out of the rotation earlier this season, scored 30 points off of the bench. Buddy Hield had a solid game with 14 points, five assists, and four rebounds. If the Warriors had received anything of substance from Draymond Green, a player touted as a future Hall of Famer, they could have won the game--but "Mr. Triple Single" finished with two points, four assists, and two rebounds on 1-4 field goal shooting while committing a game-high five turnovers before fouling out. He had more turnovers and fouls (11) than points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots (10) combined. Having more turnovers than field goals made is a "Harden," so perhaps having more turnovers and fouls than points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocked shots combined should be called a "Green." It should be emphasized that his primary matchup, Randle, ate his lunch (and breakfast and dinner).

Green is a four-time NBA champion whose career should not be defined by one game, but the larger point is that there is a consistent pattern during his career that when he is not surrounded by multiple All-Stars--if not multiple Hall of Famers--then his numbers and his impact are muted. Is it too much to ask that in a pivotal playoff game Green figures out how to get five of something positive? If not five points, then five rebounds or five assists? Is it too much to ask that after getting in foul trouble Green avoids making high risk, low reward plays that result in him fouling out? One could cynically comment that the Warriors' best chance to win was to take him out so he took those fouls for the team, but even though he had a -5 plus/minus number the Warriors probably missed his defense and physicality down the stretch. 

After game two--during which Green received his fifth technical foul of the 2025 playoffs--Green ranted that he is the victim of a false narrative depicting him as an "Angry Black man." One of the characteristics of people who have anger management issues is to deny that they have a problem and instead blame others, and this is a recurring two-pronged pattern of behavior for Green: the first prong is him lashing out inappropriately, and the second prong is his stubborn refusal to take responsibility for his actions. Green's basketball playing ability has enabled him to obtain generational wealth, a host of accolades, and almost certain induction in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame; it takes a very peculiar, warped thought process for a person who has been so blessed to conclude that he is a victim who is being singled out for negative treatment. If Green lacked basketball playing ability and behaved in a similar fashion while holding a regular job then he would not only be fired but would likely be in jail and would almost certainly would be found liable in a civil action; he not only punched teammate/co-worker Jordan Poole in the face, but he has assaulted several opponents over the years, and he has been let off the hook with minor game suspensions plus fines that are negligible compared to his huge salary. Green is not only not a victim, but he is the beneficiary of privileges granted to a very select few athletes whose teams and leagues consider them to be valuable commodities. 

The Warriors would be much better served if Green focused on performing at a high level in game four and for the rest of the playoffs instead of pouting off of the court as a prelude to disappearing on the court.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:17 AM

2 comments

Second Round is Upset City!

Three of the four second round series have begun, and the underdog won game one in all three series. Casual fans may not make much of this, but prior to the start of this year's playoffs game one winners went on to win the series 77.1% of the time since 1983-84. In the first round of this year's playoffs, the game one winner went on to win all eight series.

The second round upsets began on Sunday with the Indiana Pacers defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers, 121-112. Cleveland's All-Star point guard Darius Garland missed his third straight game due to injury, and two other Cavaliers suffered injuries during game one that rendered them doubtful for game two: 2025 Defensive Player of the Year/2025 All-Star Evan Mobley sprained his ankle, and key reserve De'Andre Hunter dislocated his right thumb. The Cavaliers shot just 9-38 (.237) from three point range in game one while allowing Indiana to shoot 19-36 (.528) from beyond the arc. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 33 points but he shot just 13-30 from the field; high volume, low efficiency shooting by Mitchell has not been Cleveland's formula for success this season, as the Cavaliers have thrived with a balanced offensive attack complemented by an excellent defense anchored by Mobley. Andrew Nembhard (23 points) and Tyrese Haliburton (22 points, game-high 13 assists) led the way for Indiana's high octane offense.

Falling into an 0-2 hole before heading to Indiana for games three and four would be a nightmare scenario for a Cleveland team that led the Eastern Conference standings from wire to wire this season. Mobley scored 20 points on 9-13 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds, so if he is limited or unable to play that will be a major blow for Cleveland. Hunter added 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench.

Last night's games featured two more upsets. Like the Cleveland-Indiana series, health could be a factor in the Boston-New York series, as the Celtics are battered and bruised: Jrue Holiday just returned after missing time with a hamstring injury, Jaylen Brown is battling a knee injury, and the oft-injured Kristaps Porzingis played 13 scoreless first half minutes versus New York before missing the second half due to illness/injury. In game one versus Boston, New York--who went 0-4 versus the Boston Celtics this season--stormed back from a 75-55 deficit with 5:47 remaining in the third quarter to take a 97-91 lead on a Jalen Brunson three pointer at the 3:28 mark of the fourth quarter. Derrick White's three pointer put Boston on top 98-97 with 2:18 remaining in regulation before OG Anunoby's three pointer gave New York a 100-98 lead. Jrue Holiday's layup tied the score, and Brunson's game-winning layup attempt rolled in and out before Jayson Tatum missed a turnaround shot at the buzzer. The Knicks never trailed in overtime as it took the Celtics nearly three minutes to score. 

The biggest story from New York's 108-105 win is not that Brunson and Anunoby (29 points each) outscored Tatum and Jaylen Brown (23 points each) but rather that the Celtics set a playoff record by missing 45 three point shots. The Celtics shot just 15-60 (.250) from three point range, and in the third quarter they fired 19 of their 20 field goal attempts from beyond the arc while getting outscored 30-23. High volume three point shooting is a high variance strategy that can result in dire outcomes, perhaps most notoriously when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight three pointers in a game seven loss to the Golden State Warriors in 2018. The Celtics won the NBA title last season because they supported their high volume three point shooting with great defense and with an offense that was capable of scoring from all areas of the court when necessary--but in game one versus the Knicks, the Celtics abandoned any semblance of offensive balance in favor of jacking up three pointers without regard to time, score, or matchups. The absence of Porzingis' size hurt the Celtics at both ends of the court, but there is no reason for versatile players like Tatum and Brown to combine to launch 25 three point field goal attempts while only shooting 18 times from inside the arc. This game is a microcosm of the problem with elevating "advanced basketball statistics" above all other considerations; yes, a three point shot is worth more than a two point shot, but that extra point does not mean that it makes sense to keep firing three pointers when other quality shots are available, let alone when doing so results in not drawing fouls, not getting the opposing team into the bonus/foul trouble, and losing control of the tempo of the game. The Celtics can still win this series, but only if they get their minds right along with getting their bodies as healthy as possible.

The 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder broke the all-time regular season record for point differential, and could be viewed as one of the greatest single season teams ever if they cap off this campaign by winning a title--but if they do not go all the way then they will be relegated into the group of great regular season teams that fell short in the playoffs, including the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9, lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals), the 1972-73 Boston Celtics (68-14, lost to New York in the Eastern Conference Finals), the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks (67-15, lost to Golden State in the first round), the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs (67-15, lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round), and the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16, lost to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals). 

The Thunder led the Denver Nuggets 82-68 with 4:36 remaining in the third quarter, but the Nuggets outscored the Thunder 53-37 the rest of the way to seize homecourt advantage. Nikola Jokic led both teams in scoring (42 points) and rebounding (22 rebounds) while dishing for six assists; the only blemish on his stat line were the game-high seven turnovers. Aaron Gordon had 22 points, 14 rebounds, and the game-winning three point shot with 3.6 seconds remaining. Jamal Murray added 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Russell Westbrook scored 18 points off of the bench, and he made the assist pass to Gordon for the final shot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played very well (33 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists), and he battled Jokic almost shot for shot in the fourth quarter, with Jokic logging 18 points in the final stanza while Gilgeous-Alexander answered with 13 points. 

The Thunder won the turnover battle by forcing 18 while coughing up just 11, but the Nuggets destroyed them 63-43 on the boards. The Nuggets' advantages in second chance points (27-21) and points in the paint (54-46) loomed large in this tightly contested game. The Thunder used 10 players--nine of whom played at least 13 minutes--while the Nuggets used just eight players (seven of whom played at least 13 minutes), so the impact of fatigue and depth may not be felt until later in this series. 

It seems improbable that all three underdogs will win these series but--based on how well game one winners have done historically--the possibility of one or even two underdogs advancing should not be dismissed.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 3:21 PM

0 comments

Minnesota Versus Golden State Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#6 Minnesota (49-33) vs. #7 Golden State (48-34)

Season series: Golden State, 3-1

Golden State can win if…Stephen Curry does not wear down, if Jimmy Butler dominates by scoring in the paint/drawing fouls, and if the Warriors' defense contains Anthony Edwards without conceding too many open shots to other Minnesota players. Minnesota reached the Western Conference Finals last year and has homecourt advantage, so Golden State faces an uphill battle in this series.

The Warriors floundered to a 25-26 start this season before acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. After finishing the season with a 48-34 record, the Warriors defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 in the NBA Play-In Tournament to earn the seventh seed in the Western Conference. Golden State took a 3-1 lead in the first round versus the second seeded Houston Rockets before losing games five and six to set up a game seven showdown in Houston; it appeared as if the younger and more physical Rockets had worn down the Warriors, holding Curry to 13-35 (.371) field goal shooting in games five and six while forcing him to commit eight turnovers--but Golden State won game seven 103-89 as Buddy Hield scored a game-high 33 points while shooting 12-15 from the field, including 9-11 from three point range. Curry bounced back to produce 22 points on 8-16 field goal shooting while grabbing a team-high 10 rebounds (just his second double figure rebounding game in the playoffs since 2022) and passing for a game-high seven assists. Butler added 20 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists.

Curry is perhaps the most unusual of the players who can legitimately be ranked among the 15-20 greatest all-time; he and Jerry West are the shortest players in that group, but West was stronger, could jump higher, and played much better defense. During his playoff career, Curry has been targeted on defense, he has been worn down as series progress, and he has won the NBA Finals MVP just once during four championship campaigns--but he has also produced in the clutch on many occasions, including yesterday's game seven win in Houston and his 50 point masterpiece in a game seven win at Sacramento in 2023.

The addition of Butler has helped Golden State because Butler is not only an efficient scorer but he draws fouls, he is an excellent passer, he rebounds well, he is a very good defender, and he rises to the occasion in big moments. The Warriors would not even be in the playoffs this season without him. Against Houston, Butler ranked second on the team in scoring (18.3 ppg) and assists (4.8 apg), and first in rebounds (6.0 rpg). Butler played for Minnesota in the 2017-18 season before his contentious departure during the 2018-19 season, and this is the first time that he has faced the Timberwolves in the playoffs.

Draymond Green defends well, sets good screens, and is a deft passer. He is also an emotional time bomb that has exploded on many occasions, both to his detriment and to the detriment of his team. His media buddies will say that Golden State cannot win without him, but Green's typical triple single statistics versus Houston speak loudly: 8.0 ppg (sixth on the team), 5.6 rpg (third), and 3.3 apg (third) with .393/.258/.571 shooting splits. Even if one buys the premise that Green does a lot of good things that don't show up in the boxscore, what shows up in the boxscore for Green is often less than impressive, and we have already seen that Green has minimal impact on team success when he is not surrounded by multiple future Hall of Famers, with his triple singles adding up to a 15-50 record in the 2019-20 season. 

Hield's game seven performance was an aberration not only in the series--he scored five points or less in four of the seven games--but those 33 points are more than a third of his career playoff scoring total (98 points). The likelihood that he will ever score 33 points again in a playoff game is exceedingly low. 

Minnesota will win because...the Timberwolves will use their size to frustrate Golden State at both ends of the court. The Rockets did not consistently exploit their size advantage versus the Warriors and the Rockets lack a defined, elite number one scoring option; the Timberwolves bludgeoned the Lakers in the paint in the first round, and Anthony Edwards is an elite scorer whose young career already includes playoff series wins versus Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic. Edwards averaged 26.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 6.2 apg versus the Lakers.

Former Laker Julius Randle, who the Timberwolves acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns prior to this series, averaged 22.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 4.4 apg versus the Lakers. Randle can drive to the hoop with power, and he can nail three pointers as well, shooting 11-28 (.393) from long distance versus the Lakers to rank second on the team in three pointers made and second in three point field goal percentage.

Jaden McDaniels played excellent defense versus Doncic while also scoring 17.4 ppg (third on the team behind Edwards and Randle).

Draymond Green loves to mock and belittle Rudy Gobert, but now Green will have to deal with Gobert on the court. Gobert's first playoff matchup versus the Warriors ended in a 4-0 Golden State sweep of the Utah Jazz in 2017, but those Warriors featured prime Kevin Durant, prime Stephen Curry, and prime Klay Thompson, plus three big men (David West, Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGhee) who each averaged between 10-15 mpg during that series. Gobert averaged 15.5 ppg on .658 field goal shooting in that series, and he led both teams with 13.0 rpg, so the notion that he does not match up well with the Warriors is demonstrably false--and if Gobert can be effective versus the Lakers' trio of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, then he can be effective versus Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the undersized Warriors. Gobert did not score much during the first four games versus the Lakers, but in game five he had 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing 24 rebounds; the Lakers defiantly stuck with a small lineup, and Gobert destroyed the Lakers in the paint.

Other things to consider: I did not pick either of these teams to reach the second round, so I have to candidly assess what specifically I either underrated about these teams or that I overrated about their first round opponents. 

I expected the L.A. Lakers to exploit the scoring/playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves to overcome Minnesota's size advantage--but the Timberwolves pounded the Lakers into submission at both ends of the court while sufficiently containing Doncic, James, and Reaves. The Timberwolves did not fall into the trap of going small to match up with the Lakers but instead punished the Lakers for being too small.

I expected the Houston Rockets to use their size advantage and physicality to wear down the smaller, older Golden State Warriors; the Rockets followed that blueprint successfully for substantial portions of this series--most notably during games five and six--but they could not overcome their anemic offense, scoring 93 points or less in three of the seven games.

The Timberwolves are a bigger, better version of the Rockets team that wore down the Warriors but could not knock out the Warriors; the Timberwolves will finish what the Rockets began.

Minnesota will defeat Golden State in six games.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 4:14 PM

50 comments

Oklahoma City Versus Denver Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #4 Denver (50-32) 

Season series: Tied, 2-2 

Denver can win if…they bully the Thunder in the paint and slow down the Thunder's transition game. Nikola Jokic followed up his MVP-level regular season (29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2 apg) by averaging 24.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 10.1 apg as the Nuggets outlasted the L.A. Clippers in seven games; only three players have averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson (1962, four games), Jason Kidd (2007, 12 games), and Russell Westbrook (2017, five games; 2021, five games). In order to beat the Thunder, the Nuggets will not only need triple double production from Jokic but they will also need their frontcourt of Jokic, Aaron Gordon (18.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers), and Michael Porter Jr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers) to do a lot of damage in the paint. 

How a team scores can often be as important as how much a team scores; by scoring in the paint, the Nuggets can control the tempo of the game to limit the Thunder's easy transition scoring opportunities while wearing down the Thunder's players, putting the Thunder's players into foul trouble, and creating more scoring opportunities from the free throw line by getting into the bonus. If the Nuggets are lured into an up and down game then the Thunder will run them out of the gym because the Thunder are a more athletic and deeper team.

Russell Westbrook, who won the 2017 regular season MVP while playing for the Thunder, could play a key role in this series because of his athleticism and his ability to attack the paint. He averaged 13.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 1.3 spg versus the Clippers.

On paper, this series is a mismatch in the Thunder's favor based on each team's overall statistics this season, but head to head these teams have been evenly matched for quite some time; it is not just their head to head record this season that is tied: Denver and Oklahoma City have split their last 16 games versus each other. Of course, the caveat for that statistic is that many of those games were played when Oklahoma City was tanking and the Nuggets were a championship team or at least a championship contender.

If the Nuggets play at their absolute best and the Thunder drop off in any way then the Nuggets could win this series, but the Thunder have a much larger margin for error.

Oklahoma City will win because...their suffocating defense will rule the day. During the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in points allowed (107.6 ppg), defensive field goal percentage (.436), and turnovers forced (17.0 tpg). They also led the league in fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg) while ranking a solid 11th in rebounding (44.8 rpg); they dominate the possession game and then they use their possessions efficiently, ranking fourth in scoring (120.5 ppg) and seventh in field goal percentage (.482). In their first round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder forced 77 turnovers while only committing 42 turnovers, and they held the Grizzlies to .415 field goal shooting, including .304 from beyond the arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, and 1.0 bpg during the first round. The presumptive regular season MVP shot poorly from the field (.402), but still had an impact at both ends of the court. Jalen Williams, who made the All-Star team for the first time, averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg during the first round. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and a team-high 2.8 bpg. Isaiah Hartenstein made his presence felt in the paint with 9.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting plus a team-high 8.8 rpg. Lack of size was an issue for the Thunder during last year playoffs, but does not seem to be a problem this season after the addition of Hartenstein. 

Other things to consider: This series features two of the three finalists for regular season MVP honors: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic (the third is Giannis Antetokounmpo). The winner will likely be announced while the series takes place. In 1995, San Antonio's David Robinson was announced as the regular season MVP and then was later torched by Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (the 1994 regular season MVP) in the Western Conference Finals: Olajuwon averaged 35.3 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, and 4.2 bpg while primarily being covered one on one by Robinson, who averaged 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.2 bpg as Houston won 4-2 en route to capturing the second of back to back NBA titles.

Jokic won the 2024 regular season MVP--his third such honor in a four year span--with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second, and that order will likely be switched this year in light of the Thunder's record-setting season. Unlike Olajuwon and Robinson, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will not battle each other one on one in this series (except for occasional defensive switches), but this series will nevertheless be viewed historically as a referendum on the 2025 regular season MVP voting. The reality is that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are both worthy candidates, just as Olajuwon and Robinson were in 1995. In 1995, Olajuwon was already an NBA champion who was about to win his second NBA title, while the nearly three years younger Robinson won both of his NBA titles several years later (1999, 2003). Jokic is a little more than three years older than Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic won the NBA championship in 2023, while Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to win an NBA title. 

In my 2025 Playoff Predictions article, I explained why I would select Jokic as the regular season MVP, and I anticipated an Oklahoma City-Denver second round matchup, favoring Oklahoma City in six games. Nothing that I saw in the first round altered my thought process on either count. I still think that Jokic is the NBA's best all-around player, and I still think that Oklahoma City will win this series.

Oklahoma City will defeat Denver in six games.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 PM

0 comments

Nuggets Overwhelm Clippers in Second Half of 120-101 Game Seven Rout

The L.A. Clippers led 26-21 after the first quarter, but trailed 58-47 at halftime and then collapsed in the second half as the Denver Nuggets won game seven 120-101 to advance to a second round matchup versus the Oklahoma City Thunder; the final score obscures the fact that the Nuggets led 103-68 with 8:49 left in the fourth quarter before calling off the dogs. The Nuggets became the first team to have six players each score at least 15 points in a seventh game. Aaron Gordon led the way (22 points), followed by Christian Braun (21 points), Nikola Jokic (16 points), Jamal Murray (16 points), Russell Westbrook (16 points), and Michael Porter Jr. (15 points). Jokic led the Nuggets with 10 rebounds and eight assists, while Westbrook contributed five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five steals.

Kawhi Leonard scored a team-high 22 points on 6-13 field goal shooting, but he did not impact the game across the board the way that he usually does, finishing with five rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James Harden, the All-Star guard who is supposed to be the team's reliable second option, had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting and a -29 plus/minus number; his game-high 13 assists were not nearly enough to make up for not only his poor shooting but his refusal to shoot in an elimination game: the game was still within reach at halftime, but the game was out of reach after Harden scored 0 points on 0-2 field goal shooting while playing all 12 third quarter minutes. Leonard had eight points during the third quarter.

Before digging into the details of yet another pathetic performance to add to Harden's horrific elimination game resume (which now includes a 3-11 won/loss record since he fled Oklahoma City after the 2012 season), we will give credit to the Nuggets. Each Denver starter had between 11 and 16 field goal attempts, and Westbrook provided a critical energy boost during his 27 minutes off of the bench; the 2017 regular season MVP is not the first or second option on a regular basis at this stage of his career but--unlike many players who struggle to accept a lesser role when doing so becomes a necessary reality--he is a team-first player who embraces with enthusiasm his current role as a player who provides hustle, scoring, playmaking, rebounding, and defense off of the bench. The Nuggets took a double digit lead into halftime in large part because Westbrook had 10 points, three assists, two rebounds, two steals, and no turnovers while playing all 12 minutes in the second quarter. When Westbrook rebounded his own missed free throw and scored in traffic at the 3:10 mark of the second quarter, I thought about how stupid it sounded when Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper giggled their way through a segment on their radio show while asserting that Westbrook is a stat padder who obtains easy rebounds from complicit teammates. Westbrook is not a stat padder; he is an energetic game-changer: that play sparked a 9-4 run to close the first half, and set the stage for Denver's third quarter avalanche that ended the game and the series.

Westbrook is not a perfect player and he is the first to admit that, but he never cheats the game, his teammates, or the fans: he plays hard, and his basketball IQ is underrated; after the game, Christian Braun--who drew the primary assignment of guarding Harden--mentioned that Westbrook's knowledge of the Clippers' offensive sets in general and Westbrook's knowledge of Harden's tendencies in particular were invaluable to him.

If you love watching basketball being played the way that it is supposed to be played, then you have to love Westbrook; you may not root for him if he is on the opposing team, but you have to respect his approach to the game. 

The emotional exclamation point for Denver's win happened after Westbrook stole the ball and delivered an uncontested fastbreak dunk at the 6:53 mark of the fourth quarter to put Denver up, 107-76. Westbrook hung on the rim for an extended period, and did not care at all about the ensuing technical foul; during the stoppage of play, Westbrook exchanged high fives with Denver fans while very emphatically telling the Clippers' fans in the crowd to go home. One got the sense that Westbrook was not only sharing joy with Nuggets' fans while talking trash to Clippers' fans but that he was also letting out a lot of pent-up energy directed toward both of his former teams in L.A.--not just the Clippers, but also the Lakers and the sycophantic media members who unfairly made him a scapegoat even though knowledgeable analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbrook during his time with the Lakers. 

James Harden is the exact opposite of Russell Westbrook: Westbrook keeps himself in shape all of the time, plays hard, accepts his role, and focuses on doing with high energy whatever his team needs him to do, while Harden is often out of shape, often does not give maximum effort, pouts if he does not like his role, and disappears like clockwork when his team needs him most, as if he looks at his Gucci and knows that in clutch moments it is "time to get ill." 

Harden has said that he does not play in a system because he is "The System." His biggest fan, Daryl Morey, insists that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. Look up delusional in the dictionary, and you should see those two statements as prime examples.

Morey loves "advanced basketball statistics," but the basic boxscore numbers are more than sufficient to tell Harden's story. When Harden's team plays in an elimination game, you can write the story template before the game and then just fill in the specific statistics after the final buzzer, because you know that he will choke and his team will lose. In 2023 as a 76er, Harden scored nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting with seven assists, and five turnovers in a 112-88 loss to the Boston Celtics; the 76ers trailed by just three at halftime, but Harden looked at his Gucci and got ill in the second half with three points on 1-3 field goal shooting. In 2024 as a Clipper, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting with 13 assists in a 114-101 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, including four points on 2-5 field goal shooting during the decisive third quarter when Dallas outscored L.A., 35-20. This year versus Denver, Harden gave a game seven preview when he disappeared in Denver's 131-115 game five win (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number). Coach Tyronn Lue may deserve the Coach of the Year award for coaxing 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting out of Harden in a 111-105 game six L.A. win; that is the most points Harden has scored in an elimination game in five years.

Nuggets-Clippers was the most closely contested first round series this year--Golden State-Houston is the only other series to even reach a seventh game, to be played on Sunday night--but game seven turned into a blowout because it is difficult for a team featuring Harden in a first option or second option role to overcome his propensity to disappear when it matters most: if a player who is expected to score 12-15 points only scores 6-10 points, his team can overcome that, but if a player who is expected to be a dominant scorer who draws double teams instead just disappears then there is no way for his team to overcome the huge gap between expected production and delivered production. Very few players are capable of filling the first or second option role on a championship contending team, and Harden is not one of those players, as I noted 12 years ago after Harden fled Oklahoma City instead of accepting a third option role behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Harden is not the only reason that his teams have lost so many elimination games, but he is the biggest reason because of his overall approach to the game: if the purported leader is out of shape, does not play hard, and shrinks in big moments then his teammates are going to follow that example in one or more ways. Leonard, who is candid if dry during his press conferences, admitted that the Clippers' game seven effort was disappointing.

Westbrook lifts his teammates' energy, and Harden deflates his teammates' energy.

At least Leonard went to the post-game press conference. Harden left the arena without speaking to the media, which is not the first time that he has done this after a crushing loss, and is yet another example of how ill-suited he is to the role of being a franchise's best player or second best player; a leader does not shirk responsibility for a loss, and speaks to the media even if he knows that there will be uncomfortable questions. 

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM

11 comments

Reflecting on Gregg Popovich's Remarkable NBA Coaching Career

Gregg Popovich suffered a stroke at the San Antonio Spurs' arena on November 2, 2024, and he did not return to coach the team last season, but he also did not formally step down; today, Popovich and the Spurs announced that he is retiring from coaching to become the team's President of Basketball Operations. Interim Coach Mitch Johnson will replace Popovich on a full-time basis; officially, Johnson's 32-45 record last season counts toward Popovich's career statistics, so Popovich finished with a 1422-869 regular season record in addition to a 170-114 playoff record, which included five NBA titles (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014). Popovich earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2003, 2012, and 2014; the only other three-time winners are Pat Riley and Don Nelson, while Larry Brown received the award three times in the ABA plus one time in the NBA. Popovich ranks first in career regular season wins, third in career playoff wins, and tied for third (with John Kundla and Pat Riley) in championships won, trailing only Phil Jackson (11) and Red Auerbach (nine). Popovich was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023 alongside (among others) his former players Tony Parker and Pau Gasol. Popovich's first two championship teams featured Hall of Fame big men David Robinson and Tim Duncan, while his next three championship teams included Hall of Famers Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. The NBA Finals MVP for Popovich's last championship, Kawhi Leonard, will be inducted in the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible.

Popovich played basketball for the Air Force Academy and later became Air Force's coach before coaching Pomona-Pitzer from 1979-88, taking one season off to be an assistant coach under Larry Brown at Kansas. The connection with Brown proved to be critical, because Brown later hired Popovich as his lead assistant with the San Antonio Spurs from 1988-92. After the Spurs fired the entire coaching staff, Popovich landed in Golden State as an assistant coach under Don Nelson. The Spurs changed ownership and then brought back Popovich as their general manager. Popovich replaced coach Bob Hill with himself after the Spurs started 3-15 without David Robinson in 1996. Popovich took over the day that Robinson returned to the lineup. The timing did not look great, but Popovich had so much subsequent success that the circumstances of him hiring himself are forgotten by most. Robinson suffered a season-ending injury just six games into Popovich's tenure as coach, and the Spurs finished with a 20-62 record; they used the number one overall selection in the NBA Draft to pick Tim Duncan, who became the franchise's cornerstone player, leading the team to five championships while winning three NBA Finals MVPs and two regular season MVPs.

During his prime, championship-winning years, Popovich deflected any praise directed toward him by declaring that he was just fortunate that Duncan let him coach him. That sounded like a funny, self-deprecating line, but like many jokes it contained more than a bit of truth: Duncan retired in 2016, and since that time the Spurs advanced past the first round just once; in the first post-Duncan season, Kawhi Leonard led the Spurs to a 61-21 record and a Western Conference Finals appearance. Two first round losses followed, and then the Spurs missed the playoffs each season from 2020-25. The last era of Popovich's coaching career was forgettable; the Spurs tanked to try to get the draft rights to Victor Wembanyama, finishing 22-60 only to then go 22-60 the next season with Wembanyama in the fold. The Spurs have not won more than 34 games in a season since 2019.

Gregg Popovich's FIBA coaching career was up and down--he was an assistant coach on Team USA's disastrous 2002 and 2004 squads, and Team USA failed to medal under his direction in the 2019 FIBA World Cup--and at one point Team USA lost five games in an eight game stretch while he was at the helm, but he led Team USA to an Olympic gold medal in 2021 before his protege Steve Kerr took over the reins for Team USA.

Popovich's demeanor during press conferences and in-game interviews became a much-discussed topic. I sympathized with his impatience for ridiculous questions, but I would say that in recent years he behaved boorishly in response to legitimate questions about the poor performance of his team; he was past his prime, and probably sensitive about that. 

I interviewed Popovich when the Spurs were in the midst of their most dominant years, and I did not find him as intimidating as some reporters did for the simple reason that I prepared for all of my interviews (not just my ones with Popovich); a prepared reporter is ready for any situation, and is also generally going to be treated with more respect than a reporter who spouts cliches while betraying a lack of even the most basic understanding of the topic at hand (this does not just apply to basketball); during one interview, I asked Popovich which statistic he values the most, and he told me that he focuses on defensive field goal percentage. Popovich also admitted that he coaches more by feel than by statistics: "I would depend more on what I see and feel than on overdosing on stats." In more recent years, Popovich's demeanor became more arrogant and condescending, and this was not just in response to stupid questions; like many NBA stars (and he became as big of a star as any player), he developed an unseemly sense of entitlement reflected not only in rude answers to legitimate questions but also by providing social and political commentary that has not been sought and is not grounded in deep research.

Overall, Popovich's legacy is tremendous and enduring; he won at an elite level for a long time, and he is highly respected by both his players and by his opponents. Hopefully, he will make a complete recovery from his stroke and be able to work in the front office as long as he would like to do so. 

Labels: David Robinson, Gregg Popovich, Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM

1 comments

Boston Versus New York Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Boston (64-18) vs. #4 New York (50-32)

Season series: Boston, 4-0

New York can win if…the Knicks use their physicality to wear down the Celtics, run them off of the three point line, and force them to play a grind it out game; in other words, if the Knicks use Orlando's anti-Boston blueprint but execute it more efficiently because the Knicks have better players and more playoff experience than the Magic. The Knicks have a defensive-minded coach, Tom Thibodeau, but this season's Knicks are not as good defensively as a typical Thibodeau-led team.

Boston beat Orlando 4-1 in the first round, but Orlando held Boston to 109 points or less in five of the six games while limiting the Celtics to 59 three point field goals made (just under 10 per game); in the regular season, the Celtics scored 116.3 ppg (ranking eighth in the league) while making 17.8 three pointers per game (first in the league). Even though the Magic held the Celtics to 106.4 ppg, they lost in a rout because they only scored 93.6 ppg versus the Celtics. 

In contrast to the Magic, the Knicks averaged 115.8 ppg (ninth in the league) in the regular season, and they scored 108.0 ppg versus Detroit's tough defense in a 4-2 first round win. At least on paper the Knicks should be able to match up better with the Celtics than the Magic, but the Celtics' 4-0 regular season sweep of the Knicks included three wins by at least 13 points each.

Jalen Brunson averaged 31.5 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.0 rpg in New York's 4-2 first round series victory versus Detroit as all five New York starters averaged at least 11.7 ppg. Karl-Anthony Towns contributed 19.7 ppg and a team-high 10.0 rpg in his first playoff series as a Knick; acquiring Towns has made the Knicks a more potent and versatile offensive team at the cost of weakening their defense: the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage during the 2023-24 regular season, but slipped to ninth and 25th respectively in those categories during the 2024-25 regular season.

Boston will win because...the Celtics enjoy too many matchup advantages. The Knicks' defense may cause some problems for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but over a seven game series Tatum and Brown will have their way; during the regular season, Brown did not put up great numbers versus the Knicks--a trend which will likely not continue during the playoffs--but Tatum averaged 33.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.8 rpg versus the Knicks with shooting splits of .535/.478/.800. It will be a tall order for the Knicks to contain one of them, let alone deal with both while also contending with Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday.

The Celtics are not only tough to guard; they are also tough to score against, ranking second in the league in both points allowed (107.2 ppg) and defensive field goal percentage (.450). The Celtics can throw multiple individual defenders at Brunson, and they have enough size to deal with Towns.

Usually, when the reigning NBA champion wins 60-plus games the next season that would be headline news, but the Celtics have flown under the radar as Oklahoma City and Cleveland posted even better records while Golden State and the L.A. Lakers grabbed attention by trading for Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic respectively. 

Other things to consider: The Knicks are a very good team that did not play well this season versus many of the top teams. The Knicks not only went 0-4 versus the Celtics during the regular season, but they also lost every game that they played versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (0-4), Oklahoma City Thunder (0-2), Golden State Warriors (0-2), and L.A. Clippers (0-2). The Knicks consistently play "good" basketball but rarely do they play "great" basketball, and it will likely take "great" basketball to eliminate the Celtics, a perennial championship contender with perhaps the NBA's most potent starting five.

Boston will defeat New York in five games.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:03 PM

0 comments

Cleveland Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Cleveland (68-14) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)

Season series: Indiana, 3-1

Indiana can win if…the Pacers' high octane offense overwhelms the Cavaliers, and if the Pacers get enough timely defensive stops. During the regular season, the Pacers ranked third in the NBA in field goal percentage (.488) and seventh in scoring (117.4 ppg) but just 17th in points allowed (115.1 ppg) and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage (.474); in their 4-1 first round victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers maintained their typical offensive production (117.8 ppg, .499 FG%) while holding the Bucks to 110.2 ppg on .453 field goal shooting. 

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in regular season scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), and he led the Pacers in scoring versus the Bucks as well (19.8 ppg on .556 field goal shooting). Tyrese Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers' offense go, averaging 17.6 ppg and a league-leading 11.6 apg in the first round. Myles Turner averaged just 4.8 rpg in the first round, but he scored 16.8 ppg on .509 field goal shooting while leading the Pacers in blocked shots (2.2 bpg). Andrew Nembhard is a pesky defender (team-high 1.4 spg during the first round) and solid scorer (15.0 ppg on .492 field goal shooting).

The Pacers are not consistently great defensively, but they have some good individual defensive players, so they are capable of getting key defensive stops. 

Cleveland will win because...the Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and have better offensive/defensive balance. Collectively, the Cavaliers have no weaknesses: they led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), third in defensive field goal percentage (..454), sixth in rebounding (45.4 rpg), and 12th in points allowed. 

Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring (24.0 ppg) during the regular season and during Cleveland's first round sweep of the Miami Heat (23.8 ppg; Darius Garland averaged 24.0 ppg but only played in two games)--but the best thing that he did this season went beyond the boxscore: he enthusiastically embraced the notion that for the Cavaliers to reach their potential it is important for Evan Mobley and other players to have larger roles. Mobley scored a career-high 18.5 ppg and he became the first Cavalier to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Darius Garland averaged 20.6 ppg and earned his second All-Star selection, joining Mitchell and Mobley. Jarrett Allen led the NBA in field goal percentage (.706) and he topped the Cavaliers in rebounding (9.7 rpg).

The Cavaliers' point differential (9.5 ppg) not only ranked second in the league this season, but it is on par with the point differentials of all-time great championship teams such as the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1991 Chicago Bulls, and the 1997 Chicago Bulls. There are three reasons that the Cavaliers are not compared to such teams:

1) The Oklahoma City Thunder performed at an even more dominant level this season.

2) The Cavaliers have not validated their regular season productivity by winning a title.

3) All-time great teams almost always have at least one player 6-6 or taller who is a dominant individual performer. The 1986 Celtics had Larry Bird leading a roster stacked with Hall of Famers. The 1991 and 1997 Bulls had Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The Cavaliers' best player is Donovan Mitchell, who is listed at 6-3 but is probably closer to 6-1. Mitchell has never made the All-NBA First Team or finished higher than sixth in MVP voting (though it is possible that he may check off both of those boxes this season). 

The Cavaliers may prove to be an ensemble championship team like Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004--but until the Cavaliers win a title they will not be discussed alongside championship teams even though they have the statistical profile of a dominant championship team.

One important step toward gaining such recognition is beating an Indiana team that is very good, but not great.

Other things to consider: Indiana won the season series between these teams 3-1, but the Pacers at full strength barely beat the Cavaliers 114-112 on April 10 when the Cavaliers rested all of their starters except Jarrett Allen; the Pacers' 126-118 double overtime win on April 13 happened on the last day of the season when both teams rested their starters. With both teams at full strength, the Pacers' offensive firepower may be enough to win a couple games, but over the course of a seven game series the Pacers cannot match the Cavaliers.

Cleveland will defeat Indiana in six games.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 3:56 PM

1 comments

Gobert Dominates Paint as Timberwolves Eliminate Lakers

Facing elimination at home, the favored L.A. Lakers fell behind 6-0 to the more physical and more focused Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves led most of the way en route to a 103-96 game five win in L.A. that left Lakers' fans with more questions than answers about their highly touted team. The Timberwolves built their biggest lead of the game, 29-15, late in the first quarter, but led by single digits for most of the game; in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves never led by more than eight points or trailed by more than one point, but despite keeping the margin within a three possession band the Lakers could not save their season.

The Timberwolves outscored the Lakers 56-40 in the paint while outrebounding the Lakers 54-37. Rudy Gobert scored a team-high 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 24 rebounds and blocking two shots. Former Laker Julius Randle contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Anthony Edwards scored 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting (including 0-10 from three point range), but he had 11 rebounds, a team-high eight assists, and a team-high three steals.

Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points and dished for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 7-18 from the field, and with the game up for grabs he scored just three points in the fourth quarter. Rui Hachimura added 23 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. LeBron James finished with 22 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. James scored five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. 

During this series, the Timberwolves outscored the Lakers in the paint in four of the five games; not surprisingly, the Lakers' only win (in game two) was the only game when the Lakers held their own in the paint, tying the Timberwolves 46-46 in a 94-85 victory. Another key statistic for this series is fourth quarter scoring; although the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by small margins in the first quarter and the third quarter, in the fourth quarter they averaged 17.0 ppg, shot just .293 from the field, and got outscored by 8.4 ppg. 

I will say more about the the Timberwolves in my preview of their second round series, but this is a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Lakers.

The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.

The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.

Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.

After the Lakers made the stunning trade with Dallas to acquire Doncic in exchange for Anthony Davis, I wrote, "Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs." I should have heeded my own words when I made my 2025 Playoff Predictions, but I somehow convinced myself that the Lakers would squeak by the Timberwolves before losing in the second round. The overarching point of my initial analysis was correct: the Lakers will not be a legit championship contender until they beef up their frontcourt, much like the Mavericks did last season by adding Daniel Gafford. The Lakers have a multi-year timeframe to build around the 26 year old Doncic, who is already one of the NBA's five best players and should be just entering his prime years.

It is not clear how the Lakers can reconcile Luka Doncic's long term timeframe with the year to year timeframe of 40 year old LeBron James. In The Paradox of LeBron James, I wrote, "LeBron James baffles and mystifies me more than any other great player who I have observed and/or studied, so it is only fitting that as he enters the final stage of his career he continues to be baffling and mystifying." James is without question one of the greatest players of all-time; anyone who suggests otherwise is biased, foolish, or both. James is also without question the most productive 40 year old player in NBA history. This season, he averaged 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg while shooting .513 from the field; those would be career-best numbers for many Hall of Famers, but overall this was a below average season for James. It is not reasonable to blame a 40 year old for not being able to lead a team on a deep playoff run when no other 40 year old has been able to do that--but James is not being paid like a 40 year old player who cannot carry a team: he is the 14th highest paid player in the NBA. 

How can the Lakers methodically build around Doncic with the idea of having sustained long term success while at the same time dealing with James on a year to year basis as one of the league's highest paid players? This is not just about salary cap space, either. With the exception of his four years in Miami--the most successful four years of his career from the standpoint of team success--James runs the show when he joins a team, meaning that he picks the coach and he picks the roster; that is why his former podcast partner Redick is the coach, and that is why the Lakers drafted his son Bronny instead of filling that roster spot with a veteran player who could contribute now. One would expect that a team with a highly paid 40 year old would be in win now mode, hiring an experienced championship-level coach and stacking the roster with proven veterans, but this particular 40 year old has different ideas. 

The reality is that even though James is more productive than any player his age has ever been and even though he is more productive right now than all but a handful of current players, the Lakers are not going to win another title as long as he is not only on the team but running the show. In James' seven years with the Lakers, they won one "bubble title" in 2020 (James' second year in L.A.), made one fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, lost in the first round three times, and twice did not even make the playoffs. The Lakers knew that their most recent trip to the Western Conference Finals was fluky, and that is why in short order they fired the coach and remade the roster, which are not steps that management takes if that team is built for sustained success. The Lakers won the "bubble title" with a 35 year old James and a huge frontcourt that dominated the paint; now, James is five years older, his team lacks size, and his one L.A. title looks more fluky each year that he keeps getting bounced in the first round despite playing alongside first Anthony Davis and now Luka Doncic. 

It will be fascinating to see the moves that the Lakers make--and don't make--prior to next season. If they are truly thinking about how to build a perennial contender around Doncic then they will hire an experienced NBA coach, they will get rid of James, his son, and other players who are unlikely to be rotation players on a championship team for the next several years, and they will use the open salary cap space and roster spots to acquire players whose skills mesh with Doncic's. Mind you, it is almost inconceivable that the Lakers will do any of those things, which means that they have not yet shifted their thinking from "LeBron runs the show" to "This is Luka's team."

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Chris Finch, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert

posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 PM

6 comments

Nuggets Sink Clippers to Take 3-2 Series Lead

Jamal Murray poured in a game-high 43 points, Nikola Jokic had a modest (by his lofty standards) triple double (13 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds), Aaron Gordon scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, and Russell Westbrook had 21 points off of the bench as the Denver Nuggets dismantled the L.A. Clippers 131-115 to take a 3-2 series lead. Westbrook showed no ill effects from the foot injury that forced him to miss Denver's game three win. The Nuggets jumped out to a 17-6 first quarter lead, never trailed, and were ahead by as many as 22 points before settling for a 16 point victory margin. 

Ivica Zubac scored a team-high 27 points on 11-15 field goal shooting, Kawhi Leonard had a near-triple double (20 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds), and Bogdan Bogdanovic added 18 points off of the bench for the Clippers, who melted down in front of their fans who thought that they showed up for a party, not a funeral.

All of the main players for both teams showed up--except for one: James Harden, a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, was his team's sixth leading scorer in this game. This is deja vu all over again for the Clippers, who are learning that there is at least one other certainty in life besides death and taxes: James Harden disappearing in game five of a 2-2 series. Last year, the Clippers entered game five versus the Dallas Mavericks tied 2-2, and they exited game five trailing 3-2 after a 123-93 loss during which Harden had a triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) while shooting 2-12 from the field (a frigid February "concert tour") and delivering his trademark "Harden" (a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made) with two field goals made and four turnovers. This year, Harden scored 11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number, achieving the rare (except for him) feat of logging a "concert tour" field goal percentage and a "Harden" in the same game.

Game five winners in a 2-2 series go on to win the series 81.3% of the time, so it is fair to say that game five of the Denver Nuggets-L.A. Clippers series was the biggest game of the season for both teams. Of course, game six is an even bigger game for the Clippers, because if they lose that game then their season is over with a first round exit, a sad finale for a squad that many "experts" lauded as a potential Western Conference Finals participant before the playoffs began.

Daryl Morey compared Harden favorably to Michael Jordan, but in fact Harden is the anti-Jordan: when Jordan played in a pivotal playoff game you knew that he would be very efficient and productive and his team would most likely win, but when Harden plays in a pivotal playoff game you know that he will be inefficient and unproductive and his team will most likely lose. Harden's elimination game resume provides a blueprint for what the Clippers should expect in game six; last year in game six, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting as the Mavericks ended the Clippers season with a 114-101 defeat.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM

10 comments

Reflecting on Dick Barnett's Legacy

Dick Barnett, who passed away in his sleep yesterday at the age of 88, leaves behind a rich legacy not only as a basketball champion and Hall of Famer but also as an educator. Barnett was one of several stars from historically black colleges who told their inspiring stories in the must-see movie "Black Magic." When the Tennessee A&I team that won three straight collegiate national championships (1957-59) was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, Barnett--the team's biggest star--narrated the video that put the team's accomplishments in historical context. By the time that Barnett was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame individually in 2024, he was in a wheelchair and unable to speak; his Knicks teammate Bill Bradley spoke on his behalf, and Bradley praised Barnett as a two-way player who was a key member of the Knicks' championship teams in 1970 and 1973. Barnett's trademark shot was his "Fall back, baby" jumper during which he curled up his legs underneath his body while saying his catchphrase, which meant that his teammates could fall back on defense because he knew that his shot was good.

Barnett began his NBA career with two solid seasons with the Syracuse Nationals before jumping to the American Basketball League (ABL) to play for his college coach John McClendon with the Cleveland Pipers, who won the 1962 ABL title. The ABL was the first professional basketball league to use the three point shot (the ABA was founded in 1967-68). After one ABL season, Barnett returned to the NBA as an L.A. Laker, and he played three seasons for the Lakers before being traded to the New York Knicks for Bob Boozer.

In his first season with the Knicks, Barnett averaged a career-high 23.1 ppg to rank sixth in scoring average (he finished seventh in total points, which is the method the NBA used to determine statistical leaders prior to 1970). He bounced back from an Achilles injury to earn his first and only All-Star selection in 1968. In the famous "Willis Reed game"--game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals, when Reed limped onto the court and scored four points despite being hobbled a painful leg injury--Barnett scored 21 points while also guarding Pantheon member Jerry West, the L.A. Lakers' star guard. Barnett's performance was overshadowed by Reed's heroics and by Walt Frazier's magnificent 36 point/19 assist/seven rebound stat line. Barnett averaged at least 12.2 ppg in each of his first 12 NBA seasons before his production dropped in his last two years.

After his playing career ended, Barnett earned a doctorate in education and communications from Fordham, and he wrote more than 20 books. He was an energetic and charismatic speaker, and a great role model not just for athletes but for all people.

Labels: Bill Bradley, Dick Barnett, John McClendon, L.A. Lakers, New York Knicks, Syracuse Nationals, Walt Frazier, Willis Reed

posted by David Friedman @ 4:57 PM

0 comments

A Glance at Each First Round Series

The 2025 NBA playoffs started with quadrupleheaders on Saturday April 19 and Sunday April 20. A little more than one week later is a good time to examine what we have seen so far in each of the eight first round series.

Eastern Conference 

#1 Cleveland leads #8 Miami, 3-0

The Heat are the first team to finish 10th in a conference during the regular season but qualify for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament, and they are playing about as well as one might expect the 10th best team to play against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland won the first two games at home, 121-100 and 121-112, before handing the Heat their worst playoff loss ever, a 124-87 shellacking in Miami. 

Although the best team will almost always win a best of seven series--barring unusual circumstances such as injuries or suspensions--it is often forgotten that each game in a series is a separate entity; the Heat will not be trailing by 37 points at the start of game four, and they may even eke out one win to send the series back to Cleveland. However, this series will end in five games at most.

The Cavaliers are playing well in all phases of the game, and they are featuring a balanced attack with seven players averaging double figures in scoring, led by Donovan Mitchell (24.3 ppg in three games) and Darius Garland (24.0 ppg in two games).

 #2 Boston leads #7 Orlando, 3-1

After Boston won game one 103-86, the next three games were each decided by nine points or less, but Boston took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 107-98 victory yesterday. The Magic have made a concerted effort to limit Boston's vaunted three point shooting; in game four, the Celtics shot just 9-31 (.290) from beyond the arc but still prevailed behind a monster game (37 points, 14 rebounds) from Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are averaging 11.5 three point field goals made per game in this series with a .348 three point field goal percentage after making 17.8 three point field goals per game with a .368 three point field goal percentage during the regular season. This series is providing a great example of why it is important for a championship-caliber team to be able to score effectively from other areas of the court in addition to three point range: three point field goal shooting is high variance, so teams that rely too heavily on long range shooting will not be as effective in the playoffs as they were during the regular season. The Celtics have a multifaceted offensive attack, so they can counter Orlando's defensive schemes.

The Magic are a gritty and physical defensive-minded team, but they lack sufficient offensive firepower to beat the Celtics in a seven game series. The most interesting storyline from this series other than Boston's ability to win without high volume three point shooting is that several of Boston's players are banged up now, including Jayson  Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday. How much will the Celtics have in the tank for the next series? 

#3 New York leads #6 Detroit, 3-1

This is another physical series, but the unfortunate headline for this series so far is that the NBA admitted that a foul should have been called on Josh Hart as Tim Hardaway Jr. attempted a three point shot with .3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter of yesterday's pivotal game four. If the foul had been correctly called then Hardaway Jr. would have attempted three free throws with his Pistons trailing, 94-93; if he had made at least two then the Pistons would have almost certainly won the game and tied the series at 2-2, instead of facing a 3-1 deficit and the tough task of winning game five in New York.

Much like the Boston-Orlando series, the favored team won the first game by a double digit margin (123-112) but the next three games were close as the Pistons won 100-94 to take homecourt advantage before losing 118-116 and 94-93 in Detroit. 

New York's Jalen Brunson has been the best player in the series, averaging a series-high 33.3 ppg, 8.8 apg, and 4.3 rpg with shooting splits of .460/.355/.833. Karl-Anthony Towns has been very good in his first playoff series as a Knick (22.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, shooting splits of .530/.500/1.000). Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring (25.8 ppg) and assists (series-high 9.0 apg) while also averaging 8.8 rpg.

This has been a tremendous season for the Pistons, but the game four no-call has put them on the brink of elimination in an otherwise competitive series. 

#4 Indiana leads #5 Milwaukee, 3-1

Damian Lillard entered this series questionable due to a blood clot in his left calf, and he exited the series with what has preliminarily been reported to be an Achilles injury to his left leg, a devastating setback that has implications not just for this series but for next season and for the future of the Bucks' franchise. The Pacers would likely have eliminated the Bucks anyway, but after Lillard went down yesterday the disheartened Bucks did not put up much of a fight in a 129-103 loss.

The Pacers' high octane offense is led by Pascal Siakam (22.3 ppg), Myles Turner (15.8 ppg), Tyrese Haliburton (15.5 ppg, playoff-high 12.3 apg), and Andrew Nembhard (15.0 ppg). The Pacers are not great defensively, but they are good enough against a Milwaukee team that only has one serious offensive threat; as expected, Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up monster numbers, leading both teams in scoring (33.8 ppg) and rebounding (14.3 rpg) while shooting .622 from the field and averaging 5.0 apg, but he does not have enough help on offense while the Bucks' defense has not been good enough, either.

Since winning the 2021 NBA title, the Bucks have fired Coach Mike Budenholzer and gotten rid of starters Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday (who played a key role on Boston's 2024 championship team). In game four, Middleton's replacement Kyle Kuzma scored three points on 1-6 field goal shooting; he is averaging 6.0 ppg in this series while shooting .333 from the field. Lillard is Holiday's replacement, and he averaged 7.0 ppg on .222 field goal shooting in three games in this series; that is a small sample size, but the reality is that it is expected for a small guard's body to break down in his mid-thirties--and Lillard is such a defensive liability that even if he had stayed healthy it is unlikely that the Bucks would have won a title with him as the second option logging heavy minutes.

Western Conference

#1 Oklahoma City beat #8 Memphis, 4-0  

Remember all of the "experts" who told us that Memphis is not an ordinary eighth seed, and that Oklahoma City is vulnerable because of their inexperience? The Thunder tamed the Grizzlies 131-80 in game one and never looked back, although the victory margins decreased in each subsequent game.

The Thunder forced 77 turnovers while committing just 42 turnovers, which should not be surprising because during the regular season they led the league in both turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) and fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not have an exceptional series by his lofty standards, but he still led both teams in scoring (27.8 ppg), albeit with an uncharacteristically bad .402 field goal percentage. His All-Star teammate Jalen Williams averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg. Chet Holmgren was the only other Oklahoma City player to average more than 10 ppg (18.5 ppg), but three others scored between 8.5 ppg and 9.5 ppg. 

Memphis' star guard Ja Morant missed game four due to injury, but that was actually the closest game of the series, with Oklahoma City winning 117-115. The Grizzlies have a lot of decisions to make, starting with whether to remove the interim tag from coach Tuomas Iisalo, and then extending to what to do with a roster that just does not seem good enough to win a playoff series.

#7 Golden State leads #2 Houston, 2-1

Houston started this series on a bumpy note with a 95-85 home loss to Golden State, bounced back with a 109-94 game two win as Golden State's Jimmy Butler left the game with a pelvis contusion after playing just eight minutes, and then lost game three 104-93 even though Butler did not play. The Warriors outscored the Rockets 35-22 in the fourth quarter of game three in what may turn out to be the pivotal 12 minutes of the series; prior to that point, the Rockets' physical defense had caused problems for the undersized Warriors.

Stephen Curry is having a sensational series, leading both teams in scoring (29.0 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) while posting gaudy .526/.452/.929 shooting splits. Butler is the only other Warrior averaging more than 11 ppg and the Warriors are getting outrebouned 50.0 rpg to 38.0 rpg, but the Rockets cannot overcome their abysmal team shooting splits of .413/.330/.641. With all due respect to Golden State's defense, the Rockets are missing a lot of open shots and they are also exercising questionable shot selection at key moments. 

The Rockets need more production and consistency from Jalen Green, who is averaging 18.0 ppg on .392 field goal shooting in this series after scoring 21.0 ppg on .423 field goal shooting during the regular season. Green's game by game scoring totals in this series are seven, 38, and nine; he should be in the 18-25 point range every game, and if he does that the rest of the way then the Rockets still have a chance.

It is easy to write off the Rockets as a team that is too young and not good enough offensively to beat the veteran Warriors, but the saving grace for the Rockets may be that their size and physicality wear down the Warriors, particularly if the Rockets win game four to extend the series to at least six games. 

#6 Minnesota leads #3 L.A. Lakers, 3-1 

The story of this series is that Minnesota has dominated L.A. in the paint. Minnesota outscored L.A. in the paint 44-32 in a 117-95 game one win to seize homecourt advantage. L.A. tied Minnesota 46-46 in the paint to win game two 94-85, and then Minnesota won points in the paint 56-26 in a 116-104 game three win and Minnesota again dominated the paint (48-30) in Sunday's 116-113 win. The Lakers gave up size and defensive presence when they traded Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic; that deal will likely be great for the Lakers' long term future because Doncic projects to be an All-NBA First Team caliber player for the next decade, but in the short term the Lakers lack size in the paint and they are not consistently good defensively. 

I picked the Lakers to win this series because I thought that the scoring and playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves combined with having homecourt advantage in game seven would be just enough to get by a Minnesota team that does not always exploit its matchup advantages, but thus far the Lakers' perimeter play has not been sufficient to make up for Minnesota's size, and the series does not appear to be on track to even reach game seven in L.A. My series preview emphasized that Minnesota would enjoy a coaching advantage with Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick, and that has proven to be the case; as just one example, Redick used the same five players for all 24 second half minutes in game four, an almost unprecedented situation of not making a single substitution in a playoff game. At times, it seems like the Lakers are playing without coaching, or at least without competent NBA level coaching; they just give the ball to Doncic, James, or Reaves, and hope that whoever has the ball either scores or draws a double team that opens up a shot for another player. Redick has received largely favorable coverage from his media buddies all season, but up to this point he has one playoff win in four tries as the coach of the higher seeded team that, at least on paper, has the two best players in the series.

Doncic is putting up his typical numbers (30.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.0 apg), James is playing at a high level for any player, let alone a 40 year old (26.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5.5 apg), and Reaves is doing as much as can reasonably be expected (17.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), but the Lakers' lack of size and the defensive liabilities of Doncic and Reaves are damaging.

Anthony Edwards is leading Minnesota in scoring (29.8 ppg, including a game-high 43 points in the pivotal game four win) and assists (5.8 ppg). Julius Randle has been very good (22.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg) in his first playoff series with the Timberwolves, and Jaden McDaniels (19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, series-high .579 FG%) has had a big impact offensively and defensively.

#4 Denver tied with #5 L.A. Clippers, 2-2

This series looks like it will be remembered as an all-time classic, with the signature moment so far being Aaron Gordon's buzzer-beating tip-in dunk to win game four for Denver, 101-99. This is apparently the first game-winning, buzzer-beating tip-in dunk in NBA playoff history. Three of the four games have been very close, with Denver winning game one 112-110, L.A. winning game two 105-102, and Denver walking off with a dramatic two point win in game four. The only outlier is the 117-83 drubbing that L.A. delivered in game three, and that game skews the overall statistics for an otherwise closely contested series.

Nikola Jokic is leading both teams in scoring (28.5 ppg), rebounding (13.5 rpg), and assists (10.8 apg); media accounts portraying Ivica Zubac as some kind of "Jokic stopper" are bizarre, even though Zubac is having a good series (18.8 ppg, team-high 11.5 rpg). Jamal Murray (20.0 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Aaron Gordon (17.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg) have played at their usual levels, but Michael Porter Jr. (10.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is struggling.

Kawhi Leonard is the Clippers' leading scorer (26.5 ppg, .562 FG%) and he has had a big impact on both sides of the court. The only cautionary note with him, as always, is health/durability; he is a big, strong player who plays with force at both ends of the court, and his body tends to break down. James Harden has been solid so far (21.3 ppg, team-high 9.5 apg, .453 FG%) but--as is usually the case--he is trending downward as the series progresses: 32 points/11 assists in game one, 18 points/seven assists in game two, 20 points/nine assists in game three, and 15 points/11 assists in game four. Harden has been uncharacteristically efficient in the fourth quarters of these games, totaling 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting with eight assists and just two turnovers, but vintage Harden often does not show up until game five; last year, the Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks were tied 2-2 before the Clippers lost 123-93 as Harden had a Draymond Green-like triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) including both "concert tour" field goal shooting (2-12) and a "Harden" with more turnovers (four) than field goals made (two). 

It is reasonable to expect greatness from Jokic and Leonard in game five, along with a typical Harden performance as well, which should add up to Denver taking a 3-2 series lead.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

2 comments

Notes and Thoughts About the Second Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Sunday featured the second quadrupleheader of the the 2025 NBA playoffs. My notes about the first quadrupleheader can be found here. 

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Game One: Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Memphis Grizzlies 80

Wait, the Thunder just had another fast break dunk...and another three pointer in transition. This game was the NBA version of "That escalated quickly." Memphis took a 4-0 lead, but the Thunder deluge soon hit: Oklahoma City led 33-20 at the end of the first quarter, and then knocked out the Grizzlies with a 20-0 run in a little over four minutes during the second quarter to push the lead to 55-22. By that point, the only questions were how big the final margin would be and how few points the Grizzlies would score.

The Grizzlies' lowest point total during the regular season was 99, and they would have needed a full extra quarter to reach that number versus the Thunder in game one. The 51 point gap is the fifth largest victory margin in NBA playoff history, and the largest game one win in NBA playoff history. An interesting footnote is that none of the four teams with larger single game playoff victory margins--the 2009 Nuggets (58), the 1956 Lakers (58), the 1973 Lakers (56), and the 2015 Bulls (54)--won an NBA title that season.

Most of the numbers from this game are ridiculously lopsided, but particularly noteworthy are the Thunder's 27-5 advantage in fast break points and the Thunder's 17-6 lead in three point field goals made. Every Thunder starter scored in double figures, and reserve Aaron Wiggins had a team-high 21 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA scoring champion, only played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Ja Morant and Marvin Bagley III were the only Grizzlies who scored in double figures (17 points each).

While it is true that the Grizzlies have a good record for an eighth seed (48-34), the Thunder defeated the Grizzlies 4-0 in the regular season, with victory margins of 24, 13, 17, and 21. Therefore, a Thunder blowout win in game one is not surprising. 

This is a good time to remember a classic quote from Danny Ainge during his playing career; after a blowout, Ainge correctly noted that the NBA is not the Tour de France: in the NBA, the next game starts 0-0, not with one team leading by the victory margin from the previous game. The Thunder are the much superior team, but one blowout does not mean that the next game will be a blowout or even that the series will be a sweep, although I picked the Thunder to sweep the Grizzlies.

Game Two: Boston Celtics 103, Orlando Magic 86

The Magic led 49-48 at halftime. Their bump and run perimeter defense frustrated and limited Boston's potent offense, but the Magic did not sustain the energy necessary to play that level of defense for a full 48 minutes. A bigger issue for the Magic is that their anemic offense could not generate enough points to remain competitive even though their defense held the Celtics to 13 points below their regular season scoring average. The gritty Magic will fight hard during this series and may even grind out one win, but their team is too limited to beat the Celtics four times in seven games

The Celtics won despite getting pedestrian scoring from their two best players. Jayson Tatum finished with just 17 points on 8-22 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds plus four assists. Jaylen Brown added 16 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Derrick White more than picked up the slack with a team-high 30 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from beyond the arc. Payton Pritchard contributed 19 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in 25 minutes off of the bench.

Paolo Banchero scored a game-high 36 points on 14-27 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for four assists, but Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-24 field goal shooting) was the only other Orlando player who scored more than seven points. The Magic committed 15 turnovers and shot just 34-81 (.420) from the field. To have any chance, the Magic need to protect the ball better, and they need to push the pace in transition after defensive stops to take some pressure off of their limited half court offense.

Game Three: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Miami Heat 100

The Cavaliers led 31-24 after the first 12 minutes, and--much like Orlando versus Boston--the Heat don't have enough offensive firepower to be competitive in this matchup. The Cavaliers were ahead 62-54 at halftime, and after the Heat played the Cavaliers even in the third quarter (25-25) the Cavaliers pulled away by winning the fourth quarter, 34-21. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome was Cleveland's fourth quarter star, pouring in 16 points on 6-7 field goal shooting. He finished the game with 28 points, just two short of Donovan Mitchell's game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Mitchell tied Michael Jordan's NBA record by scoring at least 30 points in game one for the seventh consecutive series (Jordan had two separate such streaks of seven series). Mitchell's fellow All-Star backcourt partner Darius Garland added 27 points on 10-17 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high five assists. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 24 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high nine rebounds. Tyler Herro scored 21 points on 7-18 field goal shooting.

The Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat 42-38, with Jarrett Allen (11 rebounds) leading the way. The Cavaliers were much more efficient offensively, shooting 45-88 (.511) from the field and committing just seven turnovers while the Heat shot 39-80 (.488) from the field and committed 14 turnovers. The Cavaliers narrowly won points in the paint (48-44) but shot 18-43 (.419) from three point range while holding the Heat to 13-31 (.419) shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat did not shoot terribly, but the Cavaliers took advantage of their "extra" possessions.

The Heat have more playoff experience--including several players who have played in the NBA Finals and one player who has won a championship (Andrew Wiggins)--but the Cavaliers have too much depth, size, and talent.

Game Four: Golden State Warriors 95, Houston Rockets 85

This game was the nightmare scenario for the Rockets in this matchup: despite holding the Warriors to 95 points (nearly 19 points below their season average) on .474 field goal shooting, they just could not generate enough offense to win. The death knell for the Rockets was when they scored 13 second quarter points on 6-18 (.333) field goal shooting; the Rockets outscored the Warriors by six points in the other three quarters but just could not overcome falling behind by as many as 23 points. The Rockets got to within three points in the fourth quarter but, as is often the case, the team that spends most of the game coming back does not have enough juice to close out the game.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, including 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the decisive second quarter. Jimmy Butler had an excellent all-around game with 25 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists. Brandin Podziemski chipped in 14 points and five assists. Draymond Green had his customary triple single (four points, six rebounds, three assists) as the best player on the injury-riddled 2019-20 Warriors team that went 15-50 continues to ride the coattails of his star teammates; yes, Green plays good defense and sets good screens, but let's not get twisted the difference between being two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant or 2022 NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry or two-time best player on an NBA Finals team Jimmy Butler with being a valuable supporting cast member. Green is not a dominant rebounder and one on one defender like Dennis Rodman, nor is he a defensive stopper like Michael Cooper: he is a very good complementary player around star players, but if he played for a team other than the Warriors no one would know anything about him other than he has a bad temper and a big mouth.

Alperun Sengun led the Rockets with 26 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, but he needs a lot more help from Houston's version of the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight": Dillon Brooks (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting), Fred VanVleet (10 points on 4-15 field goal shooting), and Jalen Green (seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting) had "He with us" shooting performances, to borrow a Jalen Rose line (meaning that every time they shot and missed, the Warriors probably felt like saying, "He with us" because their poor shooting made them honorary Warriors).

The main bright spot for the Rockets is that they bludgeoned the Warriors on the glass, 52-36. Steven Adams had a game-high 12 rebounds in just 19 minutes, and he was the only Rocket with a positive plus/minus number (+4). The rebounding advantage is sustainable, so if the Rockets cut down on their turnovers (they had 16, compared to just 11 by the Warriors) and figure out how to make enough shots to score more than 100 points then they can still win this series.

Another factor to keep in mind is that Golden State's two best players are 37 years old (Curry) and 35 years old (Butler). Curry had a tendency to wear down during physical playoff series even when he was younger, and Butler is injury-prone, so if the Rockets keep up their physical play then that could pay dividends in a long series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 PM

0 comments

Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

0 comments