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Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Inducts 13 Member 2024 Class, Including Vince Carter and Jerry West

The 2024 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame ceremony was originally scheduled for the weekend of August 16-17, but was shifted to the weekend of October 12-13 on a one-time basis after a basketball-packed summer that included Team USA winning the gold medal at the 2024 Olympics. 

The Class of 2024 includes 13 inductees, eight of whom have strong NBA ties: players Dick Barnett, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Michael Cooper, and Walter Davis, plus contributors Doug Collins, Herb Simon, and Jerry West. This year's other five inductees are Seimone Augustus, Harley Redin, Bo Ryan, Charles Smith (a Louisiana high school coach, not the former NBA player) and Michele Timms. 

As usual, this report will focus on the inductees who have NBA connections.

Billups led off the proceedings, and he was presented by Tina Thompson and his Detroit teammate Ben Wallace. His Detroit Coach Larry Brown was also supposed to present him, but Brown was unable to attend the ceremony. Billups noted that his grandmother had dreamed of someone in the family doing something that would establish the family name in a positive light. He said that his father Ray was his first coach/role model. 

It is obvious that playing for five different teams in his first six NBA seasons both stung and inspired Billups, who was the third overall pick in the 1997 NBA Draft. Billups played 51 games for the Boston Celtics as a rookie before they traded him to Toronto, and he lasted just 29 games in Toronto before landing in Denver. He played 58 games for Denver in parts of two seasons before being shipped to Minnesota. Billups credited Minnesota Coach Flip Saunders with being the first NBA coach who believed in him. Billups said that during his time in Minnesota he received point guard mentoring from Terrell Brandon and general mentoring from Sam Mitchell, who later became the 2007 NBA Coach of the Year and is currently a commentator on NBA TV and SiriusXM NBA Radio.

Billups enjoyed two solid seasons in Minnesota before signing with the Detroit Pistons as a free agent. That decision put Billups' career on a Hall of Fame arc, as he led the Pistons to six straight Eastern Conference Finals appearances (2003-08), two NBA Finals appearances (2004-05) and one NBA title (2004). Billups earned the 2004 NBA Finals MVP as his Pistons beat the favored but injury-riddled L.A. Lakers 4-1. Billups recalled that in those days the Pistons called themselves "The Best Five Alive" and they did not believe that any team could beat them. 

Billups said that his parents inspired him while laying a solid foundation in life for him and his siblings. Speaking directly to his three daughters--who all attended the event--Billups said, "Legacy is not something you leave for someone. It is something you leave in someone."

Ty Lue--who coached the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2016 NBA title--encouraged Billups to become an NBA coach, telling Billups that the job is stressful but that he will love it even though he will gain weight and have bags under his eyes from watching so much game film/video. Billups acknowledged that everything Lue told him about coaching turned out to be true. Billups has a career 81-165 record in three seasons as Portland's coach, but he declared that he will be a winner as a coach just like he was a winner as a player. Billups thanked the coaches who helped him become a great player, and he mentioned that no coach pushed him harder than Larry Brown, who helmed Detroit's 2004 championship team. Billups concluded by thanking his grandmother for her prayers, and he said that her prayers came true in terms of him putting respect on the Billups name.

Herb Simon, who purchased the Indiana Pacers with his brother Melvin in 1983, is the longest serving NBA team owner. He was presented by Larry Bird, Tamika Catchings, and Reggie Miller. Simon, who looks, moves, and acts significantly younger than his age, declared that he is "excited as ever" for the start of the NBA season on October 23, which will be his 90th birthday. Simon's favorite part of owning the Pacers is how the team brings his family together, and he proudly noted that all eight of his children attended this ceremony.

Simon said that his three presenters represent almost the entire time span that he has owned the Pacers (and the WNBA's Indiana Fever). He said of Miller, "You epitomize everything it is to be a Pacer." Miller spent his entire 18 season NBA career with the Pacers. Simon noted that Catchings brought him his only championship when she led the Fever to the 2012 WNBA title. Simon declared to Bird, "You are a winner at everything you do."  During his tenure with the Pacers, Bird won the Coach of the Year award (1998) and the Executive of the Year award (2012). Bird also selected Kevin Pritchard as his successor to run the team, and Simon indicated that Pritchard's moves are a major reason that he is so excited about the upcoming NBA season. 

Returning to the family theme as he finished his speech, Simon pointed to his niece Cynthia A. Simon Skjodt in the crowd and said, "If ever an award deserved two names this one deserves it, so in closing I want to dedicate this recognition to the memory of my brother Mel." 

I had never heard of Charles Smith, a Louisiana high school coach, before he received this honor. What struck me most about his story and his speech is that he has lived a life dedicated to service. He had opportunities to pursue fame and glory by coaching college basketball, but he stayed grounded in his roots and taught his students not only the game of basketball but the game of life. To this day, he is still a math teacher and a school bus driver at Peabody High School.

Jerry West is the first three-time inductee, going in this time as a contributor after previously being honored as a player (1980) and as a member of Team USA's 1960 Olympics team (2010). West, who passed away on June 12, 2024 at the age of 86, was presented by Rick Welts, Bob McAdoo, Magic Johnson, James Worthy, Pat Riley, Jamaal Wilkes, Vlade Divac, Del Harris, and Michael Cooper. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Pau Gasol, and Shaquille O'Neal were listed as presenters for West in the Hall of Fame's official press release, but they did not attend the ceremony.

Jerry West's son Jonnie spoke on his behalf. Jonnie noted that his father was obsessed with winning, and "The truth is, my dad would have struggled to accept all this recognition. He had a habit of tuning out all of the praise and hearing only criticism. But I'm here today to talk about how good he was at his job, whether he likes it or not, because Jerry Alan West was an overlooked kid from little Chelyan, West Virginia who is now a Hall of Famer for a historic third time."

Jonnie described a man who was so competitive that if he made a hole in one he would be upset about how the ball rolled into the hole. Everyone who is successful in life is competitive to some extent, but there is a difference between being competitive and being obsessed with competition, and there are a select few who are obsessed with competition. It is clear from Jonnie's descriptions and from all that is publicly known about his father that Jerry West--like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--had an obsession with competition that few other people have.

Jerry had a tremendous eye for talent, and he had the courage of his convictions. He drafted Vlade Divac at a time when it had not yet become popular to draft European players--and Divac rewarded this faith by having a Hall of Fame career. Yet, when the opportunity arose to draft a promising 17 year old Kobe Bryant, West traded Divac to Charlotte for the necessary draft pick. Jonnie asserted, with pride but also justification, that Jerry West's nearly simultaneous acquisitions of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant may have been the most impactful back to back moves of any executive in sports history. 

Jonnie did not mention the contentious nature of his father's departure from a Lakers organization to which he contributed so much, but it must be said that the rift between Jerry West and the Lakers is not only sad but it reflects poorly on the Lakers--and it is likely not a coincidence that the Lakers were a lot more successful with Jerry West in the fold than with Jerry West in exile. Jonnie pointed out that after his father left the Lakers he helped build the Memphis Grizzlies into a 50 win squad after the team had previously never won more than 23 games in a season. Jerry West also made meaningful contributions to Golden State and to the L.A. Clippers, for whom he was working as a consultant at the time of his death. The Clippers issued a statement describing West as the "personification of basketball excellence."

Jonnie noted that despite his father's obsession with competition, he also maintained compassion and connection in his interactions with his co-workers. 

Just five years ago, Dick Barnett spoke powerfully at the Hall of Fame Induction ceremony about his Tennessee A&I squad that was the first team to win three straight collegiate championships, so it was poignant to see the wheelchair-bound Barnett unable to speak at his own induction. Barnett's teammate Bill Bradley described him as a two-way player who was an essential member of the Knicks' championship teams in 1970 and 1973. Barnett's signature move was his "Fall back, baby" jump shot, with that trademark phrase signifying that his team can fall back on defense because he was sure that he would make the shot.

Doug Collins earned four NBA All-Star selections, but he joins the Hall of Fame not as a player but as a contributor. Like West, Collins distinguished himself in multiple roles during a long basketball career, excelling as a player, coach, and broadcaster. His Philadelphia 76ers teammate Julius Erving said of Collins, "I never played with a guy whose feet and hands were so quick. That quickness was also a part of his mind, and his heart and his energy. He was one of the greatest players I ever had as a teammate." Grant Hill said, "Doug was the best coach I had in the NBA." Grant Hill, Billy Cunningham, and Jerry Reinsdorf served as presenters for Collins.

Collins brought a basketball on stage with him, and declared that everyone assembled should think about that basketball: "Eight pounds of air, and what it has done for all of our lives." During his speech, Collins described himself as a storyteller, and he told many stories in a speech that lasted for nearly 30 minutes. In theory, there is a time limit for each speech, but in practice it is rare for anyone to be given the hook, because these speeches are a chance for these inductees to frame how history will remember them. Collins was a member of the 1972 Team USA squad that was robbed of Olympic gold by what Collins rightly term "political" reasons, and he never won an NBA championship as a player or as a coach, so his time on stage clearly had great meaning for him as an opportunity to talk about what he learned and what he felt during his basketball journey. 

Collins, like West, is the ultimate basketball junkie/basketball purist, as anyone who followed his career knows very well. Collins declared, "I've never been afraid to fail," and he emphasized that young people should understand that failure is a way to grow. His passion for the game is obvious and contagious, from his description of playing for Coach Will Robinson at Illinois State through his recounting of the 1972 Olympics to his statement that the premature end of his NBA career due to injury "broke my heart." 

Collins transitioned from playing to broadcasting, and then Jerry Reinsdorf hired Collins to coach the Chicago Bulls after being struck by how well Collins analyzed the game on TV. Collins noted, "You're always being evaluated." Collins posted a 442-407 regular season record with the Bulls, the Detroit Pistons, the Washington Wizards, and the Philadelphia 76ers.

I enjoyed Collins' recollections of the players he played with and against, and the challenges he faced during his injury-riddled NBA career. Collins described seeing Erving for the first time, at the Maurice Stokes Benefit that used to be held annually at Kutsher's Country Club. Collins said that while he was warming up he heard a buzz in the crowd, and then he saw Erving walk on the court holding a basketball in each of his huge hands. Erving jumped up, dunked one basketball and then dunked the other basketball. Collins recalled thinking that he was playing the wrong sport!

There were some murmurs from the crowd as Collins' speech approached the 30 minute mark, and Collins hearkened back to Jimmy Valvano's legendary ESPYs speech when Valvano dismissed the blinking light that indicated that his time to speak was up. Collins closed by thanking his family members individually--including his grandchildren, children, and wife--and he stated that he had followed Coach Robinson's advice to never leave home without a basketball. That advice served him well, and carried Collins all the way to the Hall of Fame!

Bo Ryan spent his entire college coaching career in the state of Wisconsin. He was presented by Roy Williams. Jim Calhoun, who was supposed to be his other presenter, took ill and was not able to attend. Ryan spoke the line of the night: "The purpose of life is to discover your gift. The meaning of life is to give it away." He praised Williams and Calhoun for embodying that ideal.

Seimone Augustus is one of the greatest female basketball players ever. Her speech was noteworthy because she recited most of it in poetic form, and because she stated that she plans to be successful enough in her post-playing career to be inducted a second time. Harley Redin was inducted posthumously for his significant contributions to the women's game. Michele Timms is still one of my favorite female basketball players of all-time because of her high basketball IQ, her deft passing, and her grit; she is a pioneer of the modern women's professional game who did not post gaudy WNBA statistics but who had a major impact on team success both as a professional and as a member of the Australian national team.

Younger fans may not know about Walter Davis, but if you followed college and pro basketball in the 1970s and 1980s then you will never forget the smooth, graceful style of "The Greyhound." Julius Erving, who could be termed the poet laureate of the NBA because of his ability to succinctly and vividly describe the essence of a player's greatness, said of Davis, "A player who was not only skilled, but made other players better. He was poetry in motion." Davis was presented by David Thompson, Bob McAdoo, Jerry Colangelo, Roy Williams, Charlie Scott, and Bobby Jones. Davis' daughters attended the ceremony and provided brief recorded remarks but did not give a live speech.

Michael Cooper's career does not fit the traditional statistical profile for a Hall of Famer because he was not a high scorer nor was he a perennial All-Star; in fact, he never made the All-Star team, though he did earn the 1987 Defensive Player of the Year award plus eight straight selections to the All-Defensive Team (1981-88). However, Cooper was a very important player on five championship teams (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88) as a member of the L.A. Lakers before coaching the L.A. Sparks to two WNBA titles (2001-02). He was a versatile player who could play three positions--point guard, shooting guard, small forward--at both ends of the court.

Cooper's presenters were Magic Johnson, Pat Riley, and Lisa Leslie. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was not able to attend. During his speech, Cooper mentioned that he was raised by his grandmother and extended family members. His high school coach cut him twice, but taught him a lifelong lesson that passion for sports goes hand in hand with devotion to God. Cooper gave tribute to Jerry West, who drafted him for the Lakers: "He was a friend and a mentor. I owe him more than he could ever understand, and I miss him more than I can ever express." Cooper said that winning the J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship award in 1986 meant a lot to him, and he pledged to use his platform to give back to the game and the world that has given so much to him.

Vince Carter is probably the 2024 inductee who is most familiar to younger fans, as Carter retired from the NBA in 2020 after playing for a record 22 seasons. He initially achieved fame for his spectacular dunks--and the signature moments of his career include winning the 2000 NBA Slam Dunk Contest and posterizing Frederic Weis during the 2000 Olympics--but Carter also won the 1999 Rookie of the Year award before earning eight straight All-Star selections (2000-07). After being traded to Orlando, Carter began the transition from star player to role player, a subject that I discussed with him after an Orlando-Indiana game in 2010.

Julius Erving and Carter's cousin Tracy McGrady presented Carter. Befitting a player who had the longest career in NBA history, Carter spoke for nearly 30 minutes, longer than any other inductee other than Collins. Carter began by paying tribute to his connection with McGrady, a bond formed when they found out that they were related not long before they became teammates in Toronto. Then, Carter talked about Erving: "We all have heroes, and I am thankful to have my hero up here." Carter lived out the dream held by most basketball fans in the 1970s and 1980s to not only meet Erving but to have a meaningful connection with him; interviewing Erving on the phone, meeting/interviewing him at the 2005 ABA Reunion, and speaking with him at other All-Star Weekends are highlights that will never be topped during my basketball journey.

Carter thanked various family members, friends, and teammates who helped and supported him. Carter talked about the enduring influence that his University of North Carolina experience had not just on his career but on his life, because he always considered himself a student-athlete as opposed to an athlete-student. He reviewed his NBA career in reverse chronological order, beginning at the end with the Atlanta Hawks and then concluding at the beginning with the Toronto Raptors. Although the Basketball Hall of Fame differs from some Halls of Fame that primarily identify each inductee with a specific team, Carter stated emphatically his preference to enter the Hall of Fame as a Raptor.

Erving appeared as a presenter for the first time since 2021. The official records for Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame presenters only go back to 2001 (which is an odd limitation for an organization that is supposed to be dedicated to preserving and honoring basketball history), but there is good reason to believe that no one has been a Hall of Fame presenter more often than Julius Erving. A person must be a Basketball Hall of Fame inductee to be a presenter. Erving was inducted in 1993.

Here is the list of each of the 18 times that I can confirm that Erving has been a Hall of Fame presenter:

Julius Erving as Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Presenter

1994: None
1995: Presented Cheryl Miller
1996: None
1997: Presented Alex English
1998-2000: None
2001: Presented Moses Malone
2002-2003: None
2004: Presented Clyde Drexler
2005: None
2006: Presented Dominique Wilkins
2007-2010: None
2011: Presented Artis Gilmore
2012: Presented Katrina McClain, Ralph Sampson and the All-American Red Heads
2013-2014: None
2015: Presented John Calipari
2016: Presented Allen Iverson and Shaquille O'Neal
2017: None
2018: Presented Maurice Cheeks and Charlie Scott
2019: Presented Chuck Cooper and Bobby Jones
2020: None
2021: Bill Russell
2022: None
2023: None
2024: Vince Carter

Articles About Recent Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies:

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2023 Class Includes Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and Gregg Popovich (Class of 2023)

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2022 Class Includes NBA Players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili (Class of 2022)  

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes 15 New Members and Honors Bill Russell a Second Time (Class of 2021)

Kobe Bryant Headlines the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Class of 2020) 

The Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes A Diverse Class of 12 Inductees (Class of 2019)

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2018)

Labels: Basketball Hall of Fame, Bo Ryan, Chauncey Billups, Dick Barnett, Doug Collins, Harley Redin, Herb Simon, Jerry West, Julius Erving, Michael Cooper, Seimone Augustus, Vince Carter, Walter Davis

posted by David Friedman @ 2:03 PM

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2024-25 Western Conference Preview

The Dallas Mavericks flipped the script after their 2022-23 late season collapse to reach the 2024 NBA Finals as the Western Conference's fifth seeded team. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving proved to be a dynamic duo, while midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington made a huge difference. Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II formed an excellent one-two punch in the paint.

The Oklahoma City Thunder posted the Western Conference's best record last season before falling to the Mavericks 4-2 in the second round. I hesitate to pick the Thunder as the Western Conference favorite for two reasons: (1) The Thunder tanked for two seasons (22-50 record in 2021-22, 24-58 record in 2022-23), and there is a lot of evidence that tanking does not work; (2) even after the acquisition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are still a small team that could be pushed around in the paint.

After winning the 2023 NBA title, the Denver Nuggets have lost some key rotation players--including Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--and it has become fashionable to discount them as legitimate championship contenders. However, any team with a healthy Nikola Jokic is a serious threat, and I expect Russell Westbrook to thrive on a team that has a more serious approach than the teams for which he recently played.

The Minnesota Timberwolves did not rest on their laurels after making their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2004; they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. It will be interesting to see if Randle can stay healthy and accept a second option role behind Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo adds range shooting and toughness.

Although the Western Conference is very deep, there is a separation between the top four teams and the rest of the very good teams. The 2025 Western Conference Finals will likely feature two of the four teams mentioned above.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a wondrous offensive player who will never be a defensive stopper but who--like previous Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki--is learning how to avoid being a liability on the less glamorous side of the court. Last season, Doncic won his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 33.9 ppg while also setting career highs in assists (9.8 apg, second in the league), three point field goal percentage (.382), and triple doubles (21). Much like his Coach Jason Kidd used to be, Doncic is an elite rebounder (9.2 rpg last season) who can get the ball off of the defensive glass and go. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team for the fifth straight year, and he finished third in regular season MVP voting. Injuries limited him at times during Dallas' long playoff run, but he still averaged 28.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 8.1 apg during the postseason. In his first NBA Finals, Doncic produced 29.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, and 5.6 apg, but he also had nearly as many turnovers (23) as assists (28).

Kyrie Irving embraced the second option role and was highly productive, averaging 25.6 ppg, 5.2 apg, and 5.0 rpg. His production dipped during the playoffs (22.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.7 rpg), but the Mavericks would not have reached the NBA Finals without his timely contributions.

The difference between the 2024 Mavericks and the 2023 Mavericks was the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Gafford teamed with rookie Dereck Lively II to provide significant paint presence at both ends of the court. Gafford led the Mavericks in blocked shots in the regular season (1.9 bpg) and the playoffs (1.5 bpg). Washington ranked third on the team in playoff scoring (13.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg).

The main thing that the Mavericks lacked during the NBA Finals was a reliable outside shooting option to take the pressure off of Doncic and Irving. Enter Klay Thompson, who the Mavericks signed away from Golden State. Thompson is not the defensive standout that he used to be, but he can still spot up in the corner and drain three pointers.

The Mavericks' 2024 playoff run may look fluky because they the Mavericks were only the fifth seed, but if they stay healthy then they will likely earn a much higher seed with Gafford and Washington in the fold for all 82 games.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder may eventually be the first tanking team to legitimately contend for an NBA title. Last season they clinched the number one seed in the Western Conference (on tiebreaks) with a 57-25 record before losing to the underdog Mavericks in the second round. The Thunder attempted to address their lack of size by signing former Knick Isaiah Hartenstein, who joins his sixth team in seven NBA seasons. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the centerpiece of Oklahoma City's attack. He finished second in regular season MVP voting after averaging 30.1 ppg (third in the league), 6.2 apg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.0 spg (second in the league). Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second straight All-NBA First Team selection, and he came in seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting. At 26, he is the elder statesman in a core rotation that includes five players who are 25 or younger. 

The Thunder traded Josh Giddey, who fell out of the rotation during the playoffs, to Chicago for Alex Caruso, who has earned consecutive All-Defensive Team selections after being a member of the Lakers' 2020 championship team. 

I am skeptical of the long term prospects of teams that tanked, but there is no denying that this is a very good team.

3) Denver Nuggets: As long as the Nuggets have prime Nikola Jokic they will be dangerous; in the 2024 Olympics, Jokic led a Serbian squad with just three other players with NBA experience to the brink of a win versus a Team USA squad stacked with future Hall of Famers, including four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Yes, the NBA is different from FIBA, but Jokic's triple threat ability to score, rebound, and pass enables him to have a significant impact any time he steps on the court.

The Nuggets have reason to be concerned about Jamal Murray, who did not look great for Canada during the Olympics. He has not played in more than 65 regular season games since 2019--but if Murray is healthy and productive then the Nuggets have as good of a one-two punch as any team.

Signing Russell Westbrook is an under the radar move that could pay huge dividends for a team that has lost some key rotation players (Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) since winning the 2023 NBA title. Westbrook is a favorite target for some media members, but he is a perfect fit for this team because the Nuggets are a no-nonsense squad with a championship mindset.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves have only won a playoff series in two years--2004 and 2024--and both times they reached the Western Conference Finals before being eliminated. It would have been understandable to just run it back and try to win two more playoff series, but instead the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The deal not only gives the Timberwolves more frontcourt flexibility and versatility but it also relieves a looming salary cap issue that could have become problematic by the end of Towns' huge contract. 

Of course, fans do not care about the salary cap or the dreaded "second apron" restrictions affecting teams that exceed the salary cap; fans care about winning games and winning championships. Did the blockbuster deal bring the Timberwolves closer to making their first NBA Finals appearance? The Timberwolves used their size to overpower the defending champion Nuggets in the second round; now they are smaller, but also quicker and deeper. Randle is a talented wild card: he is a three-time All-Star and two-time member of the All-NBA Team, but he owns a .344 playoff career field goal percentage.

I can't say for sure at this point that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I will be surprised if it made them better, and I don't expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals this season.

5) Phoenix Suns: Since losing in the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns have fired two coaches and remade their roster, but they have only won two playoff series in the past three years. Kevin Durant is still a very productive player at age 36, but since he left Golden State in 2019 he has a 2-4 playoff series record. The Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio was supposed to be a "super team," but last season Beal missed 29 games, and Booker missed 14 games. 

On paper, the Suns look very good, but the on court reality is that when the playoffs roll around the Suns tend to lack the necessary health and cohesion to beat elite teams in a seven game series.

6) Houston Rockets: In his first year with Houston, Coach Ime Udoka transformed the Rockets from a 22-60 doormat to a 41-41 team on the rise. Yes, the Rockets improved their roster by adding veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but in a vacuum those two players are not worth 19 extra wins; the Rockets jumped from 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 28th in points allowed to fifth in defensive field goal percentage and 14th in points allowed. Those numbers suggest that (1) Udoka has a very good defensive system and (2) the players completely bought in to how Udoka asked them to play.

In his third season, Alperen Sengun emerged as an All-Star caliber player, averaging 21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg. Injuries forced him to miss the final 18 games of last season, but he is expected to make a healthy return for this season. 

7) Memphis Grizzlies: Last season, the Grizzlies went 6-3 in the nine games that Ja Morant played in before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. In the previous two seasons, the Grizzlies posted 56 wins and 51 wins. It is true that their roster has changed significantly since 2021, but if Morant stays healthy then this team could be very dangerous. Morant's career playoff scoring average is 27.3 ppg, and he led the NBA in playoff assists in 2022 (9.8 apg), so he is not afraid of the bright lights--he just needs to get his off court life under control, and he needs to stay healthy.

Jaren Jackson Jr. won the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he has twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2022, 2023). Last season, Jackson's scoring average jumped to a career-high 22.5 ppg, but his blocked shots average dropped from a career-high 3.0 bpg to 1.6 bpg. Rookie Zach Edey may replace some of the physical presence that Steven Adams used to provide, and Edey could either from a twin towers tandem with Jackson or their minutes could be staggered so that Memphis always has a player on the court who impacts play in the paint.

8) Sacramento Kings: After posting the Western Conference's third best record in 2022-23 (48-34), the Kings went 46-36 last season but missed the playoffs because so many other Western Conference teams improved. After the season, the Kings shipped out Harrison Barnes and acquired DeMar DeRozan in a three team deal involving the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. The 35 year old DeRozan is an excellent clutch performer, and he shows no signs of aging: he averaged 24.0 ppg last season with shooting percentages and free throw attempt rates above his career norms.

Mike Brown earned the 2023 NBA Coach of the Year award for his exceptional work with the Kings after inheriting a team that ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. Those rankings moved to 25th and 29th respectively in Brown's first year at the helm, and improved to 17th and 21st last season. A continued upward progression on defense plus DeRozan's clutch time scoring should add up to a return to postseason play for the Kings.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

The Western Conference is very deep, and some of the teams listed below that I do not expect to qualify for the playoffs are not that much worse than the teams listed above.

The LeBron James-Anthony Davis L.A. Lakers will always have the 2020 "bubble" title and the 2023 NBA Cup, but their resume as a duo also includes two first round losses plus missing the playoffs in 2022. James undermined Coach Darvin Ham and then hand-picked his podcast partner J.J. Redick as Ham's successor. Redick has proven that he can befriend James and give snarky answers to legitimate questions from media members, but his coaching experience is limited to coaching his son in AAU basketball; it will be interesting to see how well the combination of Redick's overt arrogance and lack of meaningful coaching experience work out for the Lakers, who pretend to have championship ambitions but in reality will be fortunate to qualify for the playoffs. There will be a lot of scrutiny regarding how the Lakers utilize second round pick Bronny James, who averaged 4.8 ppg in his only college season but has the benefit of being James' son (and being the son of the man who hired Coach Redick); as a human interest story, it is cool that LeBron and Bronny have already played together in an NBA preseason game and will, presumably, soon play together in an NBA regular season game--but Bronny has been given a roster spot instead of earning it and that is not a good thing for the Lakers in the long run.

The New Orleans Pelicans may be a sleeper pick for some people, but the Pelicans have not won a playoff series since 2018, when Anthony Davis was the team's best player. Their regular season record has improved in each of Coach Willie Green's three seasons but they have sandwiched two first round losses around a non-playoff season. The Pelicans acquired versatile guard Dejounte Murray, but they traded away centers Jonas Valanciunas and Cody Zeller and they are apparently committed to playing small and at a fast pace. They might want to look at the list of NBA champions to see how many teams won a title by playing small. In the competitive Western Conference, this undersized and injury-prone team will probably be a Play-In Tournament team that falls just short of making the playoffs.

The Golden State Warriors struggled versus the plus-.500 teams last season, which is not surprising for a team that has won just one playoff series since beating the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals--and that championship run is the only time that the Warriors advanced past the second round since Kevin Durant left the Warriors after the 2018-19 season. Breaking up the "Splash Brothers" by trading Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks marks the end of an era that saw the Warriors win four NBA titles in an eight year span. Stephen Curry is still a great player but he is not going to lead the Warriors to another title--or even a playoff berth--without a strong supporting cast around him punishing teams for trapping him while also providing a foundation of strong defense.

Free agent Paul George left the L.A. Clippers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Clippers will miss George's scoring, playmaking, and defense--but they will not miss his documented tendency to disappear during the playoffs. With Coach Ty Lue at the helm and the newly hired Jeff Van Gundy as the de facto defensive coordinator, the Clippers will enjoy a schematic game plan advantage in most games, but that will not be enough to overcome Kawhi Leonard's propensity to be injured and James Harden's propensity to choke at the most important moments.

The San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain the right to draft Victor Wembanyama, and then Wembanyama had an excellent rookie season that resulted in--drum roll, please--the Spurs winning 22 games, exactly the same number of games they won while tanking away the 2022-23 season. "Stat gurus" swear that they follow science, yet they are blind to the decades of evidence proving that tanking does not work. The Spurs signed 39 year old Chris Paul to mentor Wembanyama, because clearly a player with a 12-15 playoff series record who has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in 19 seasons is just the guy to lead the Spurs into contention. There is no doubt that Paul will be the best post-feeder on this team--an admittedly low bar to clear--and he has wisdom that can benefit young Wembanyama, but Paul would be a better fit as an assistant coach than as a point guard.

Danny Ainge described Utah's defense last season as "horrible" and conceded that the "personnel was not good enough. That's on me." The Jazz did not make any significant personnel additions in the offseason, so based on Ainge's candid assessment there is little reason to think that the Jazz will be a playoff team this season.

The tanking Portland Trail Blazers hit rock bottom last season with a 21-61 record that is the franchise's worst ever excluding years two and three after the franchise's founding in 1970. The path from this abyss just to respectability is far from clear. This is yet another example of tanking at its finest.

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2024 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 118/152 (.776)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM

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2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview

The uncrowned champions crowned themselves in dominant fashion: after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals five times in a seven year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) with just one NBA Finals appearance and no championships to their credit, the Boston Celtics cruised to a 64-18 regular season record in 2023-24 before embarking on a 16-3 playoff run that culminated in the franchise's first NBA title since 2008. The Celtics will have to survive the first portion of the 2024-25 regular season without the services of Kristaps Porzingis--who is recovering from left lower leg surgery--but they seem poised to mount another strong playoff run.

The New York Knicks have emerged as the biggest Eastern Conference threat to Boston's dominance. After posting a 50-32 regular season record--good for second place in the Eastern Conference, and the franchise's best win total since 2012-13--the injury-riddled Knicks lost a hard-fought second round series to the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks will miss center Isaiah Hartenstein (who joined the Oklahoma City Thunder), particularly because Mitchell Robinson will not be available at the start of the season due to injury, but the Knicks upgraded their roster during the offseason. First, they traded a package including three players and five first round draft picks to Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges, and then they made a blockbuster deal to acquire Karl-Anthony Towns from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. Towns fills the void at center, and appears to be a better chemistry fit than Randle because Towns has demonstrated that he is fine with being the second option on offense, a concession that it is not clear that Randle would be willing or able to make.

The Indiana Pacers feature a potent offense orchestrated by All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, but until they improve their porous defense they will be more of a spoiler than a contender--a worthy foe to any team in a playoff series, but a team unlikely to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again.

The perennially highly touted Philadelphia 76ers have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson led them to the 2001 NBA Finals. After tanking for several years, they have spent several more years trying to find the right combination of players to support the oft-injured Joel Embiid. My evaluation of the 76ers' playoff prospects is not changed by their acquisition of Paul George, who is almost as big of a playoff choker as his former L.A. Clipper teammate (and former 76er) James Harden; the 76ers most assuredly have not "tanked to the top," and they will not reach the top until they purge their organization of the flawed thinking promulgated by the "stat gurus" who have been running the show for the better part of the past decade.

The Milwaukee Bucks won the 2021 NBA championship, but they have not advanced past the second round since that time and have lost in the first round in each of the past two seasons. Giannis Antetokounmpo played in just three of Milwaukee's five playoff games in 2023, and he missed all six of Milwaukee's playoff games last season. Antetokounmpo has played in 73 games or less in each of the past six regular seasons, and it is fair to wonder if his hard-charging style has taken a toll on his body. Firing Coach Mike Budenholzer prior to last season and dealing Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard are two moves that gutted Milwaukee's once elite defense. During the 2020-21 championship season, the Bucks ranked second in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage, and in Budenholzer's final season with the Bucks (2022-23) the Bucks led the league in rebounding and ranked second in defensive field goal percentage; last season, the Bucks ranked ninth in rebounding and 14th in defensive field goal percentage.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) Boston Celtics: The Boston Celtics authored one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history, but there seems to be a reluctance to acknowledge their earned status as a great team, perhaps because the Celtics fell short so many times in recent years. The Celtics fired at will from three point range--averaging a league-high 42.5 three point field goal attempts per game--to the delight of "stat gurus" and to the dismay of more traditional basketball analysts, but it is important to understand that mad bombing is not why the Celtics won the championship. Much like when the Golden State Warriors won championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022 with a staunch defense that provided a sound foundation supporting all of the headline-grabbing three point shooting, the Celtics had an elite defense that ranked first in blocked shots, second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. It should be emphasized that the Warriors ranked first in defensive field goal percentage in 2015 and 2017, third in 2018, and second in 2022; last season, the Warriors ranked fourth in three point field goals attempted but ninth in defensive field goal percentage and 18th in points allowed.

Jaylen Brown averaged 23.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 3.6 apg during the regular season to earn his third All-Star selection, but he was left off of both the All-NBA Team and the All-Defensive Team. Brown scored a playoff career-high 23.9 ppg on playoff career-high .516 field goal shooting en route to capturing both the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. 

Brown played very well in both of those playoff series, but Jayson Tatum led Boston in scoring in the Eastern Conference Finals (30.3 ppg to Brown's 29.8 ppg) and the NBA Finals (22.2 ppg to Brown's 20.8 ppg). Scoring is not everything, but Tatum also led the Celtics in rebounding (7.8 rpg) and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals after pacing the Celtics in Eastern Conference Finals rebounding (10.3 rpg) while ranking second in assists (6.3 apg) behind Derrick White (6.5 apg). Tatum made the All-NBA First Team for the third straight year, and he finished sixth in regular season MVP voting after averaging 26.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.9 apg. Tatum remains the team's best all-around player, and he forms a powerful duo with Brown.

Celtics fans should send letters of appreciation to the Milwaukee Bucks for trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Holiday ended up in Boston, where he became a key member of the squad, and Lillard played a major role in Milwaukee's disappointing season. 

Kristaps Porzingis will miss the start of the season due to injury, and he has battled injuries throughout his career, but assuming that he returns at some point the Celtics have no weaknesses and should mount a strong run at becoming the first back to back NBA champions since Golden State in 2017-18.

2) New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson led the Knicks to the second round for the second consecutive season after the Knicks had not advanced that far since the 2012-13 season. Brunson's emergence as an All-NBA Second Team member and fifth place finisher in MVP voting has changed this franchise's trajectory after a decade of being stuck in the mud. Brunson set career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg, fourth in the league) and assists (6.7 apg) before lifting his numbers to 32.4 ppg and 7.5 apg in the playoffs. He scored 40 points in four straight playoff games, including the series clinching win versus Philadelphia and the series opening win versus Indiana.

The Knicks are a physical but undersized team that plays tough defense. They struggle to score efficiently. Last season after the Knicks lost Julius Randle to injury, Brunson was the only player on the roster who could consistently create shots for himself and others. Swapping Randle for Karl-Anthony Towns not only balances the Knicks' roster by adding some much needed size but also provides some range shooting that will open up the floor for Brunson. Newly acquired Mikal Bridges should help the Knicks at both ends of the court, and soften the blow of losing Donte DiVincenzo in the Randle-Towns trade.

Health is the biggest question mark for the Knicks. Assuming that they avoid significant injuries, the only other concern would be that even with Towns they are still a bit small.

3) Indiana Pacers: Two-time All-Star and 2024 NBA assist leader Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an offense that led the league in scoring (123.3 ppg), field goal percentage (.507), and assists (30.8 apg), but the Pacers will not win a championship until they improve their defense, which ranked last in points allowed (120.2 ppg) and defensive field goal percentage (.496). The slightly built Haliburton has played in 69 games or less in three of his first four NBA seasons, so his durability is questionable.

Midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring down the stretch (21.3 ppg in 41 regular season games with the Pacers) and in the playoffs (21.6 ppg). His versatility, championship experience, and ability to create his own shot in crunch time were all critical factors during Indiana's run to the Eastern Conference Finals.

4) Philadelphia 76ers: In my 2023-24 Eastern Conference preview, I posed the following questions to Daryl Morey:

1. Do you still believe that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan?
2. Do you regret staking your reputation on the hope that Harden would outperform his horrific elimination game resume (to which Harden added yet another awful stat line last season)? 
3. Do you still believe that your application of "advanced basketball statistics" confers a tangible advantage for your team even though the playoff results for your Houston teams were statistically no better than average and your Philadelphia teams have yet to advance past the second round? 
   

Those questions proved to be pertinent, and they foreshadowed yet another disappointing season for the 76ers. The disgruntled Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia before last season began, and Harden's season ended in typical fashion as he posted his familiar "concert tour" numbers. After the 76ers lost in the first round, Morey consulted his spreadsheets, and he convinced himself that 34 year old Paul George--whose playoff choking resume is similar to Harden's--will provide the necessary spark to finally lift Joel Embiid past the second round of the playoffs. 

If Embiid and George stay healthy--a big "if" considering their recent injury histories--then they can form a powerful trio with Tyrese Maxey and win more than 50 regular season games, but the crucial test for Morey's latest attempt to form a super team will happen in the playoffs. Embiid has a 5-7 career playoff series record, and he has shot worse than .470 from the field in nine of those 12 playoff series; during the playoffs, he has consistently been injured, inefficient, or both. Until that changes, the 76ers are going nowhere fast, regardless of how many regular season wins they stack up.

5) Milwaukee Bucks: In 2021, the 26 year old Giannis Antetokounmpo won his first NBA title and first NBA Finals MVP after previously capturing back to back regular season MVPs. The Bucks had posted the best record in the Eastern Conference in 2019 and 2020, and it appeared that Antetokounmpo and his squad were poised to dominate the East--if not the entire league--for the next several years. Instead, the Bucks failed to advance past the second round in each of the next two seasons, leading management to conclude that a shakeup was necessary to prevent Antetokounmpo from leaving for greener pastures. 

However, in the wake of the departures of Coach Mike Budenholzer and two-way performer Jrue Holiday, the Bucks collapsed defensively and lost 4-2 to Indiana in the first round. Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to injury, but during the regular season the Bucks struggled against the Pacers even with Antetokounmpo. Damian Lillard, who was acquired in exchange for Holiday, posted the third worst field goal percentage of his career (.424) as his scoring average dropped nearly 8 ppg.

Coach Doc Rivers joined the team in mid-season after the firing of rookie Coach Adrian Griffin, so perhaps the Bucks will be better after having a full training camp with Rivers at the helm--but Antetokounmpo's recent inability to be healthy for the playoffs and Damian Lillard's 4-9 career playoff series record do not inspire much confidence that the Bucks will be a championship contender.

6) Orlando Magic: The young Magic are a team on the rise, and after reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2020 they seek to win a playoff series for the first time since the Magic reached the NBA Finals in 2010. The top four players in Orlando's rotation last season (based on mpg averages)--Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter, Jr.--are each younger than 25. Newly acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope brings veteran experience, tenacious defense, and championship savvy. 

Banchero built on his 2023 Rookie of the Year campaign by improving his scoring from 20.0 ppg to 22.6 ppg while also lifting his field goal percentage (.427 to .455) and three point field goal percentage (.298 to .339). Considering his size and athletic gifts, he should have a big impact on the boards, but he averaged just 6.9 rpg in each of his first two seasons.

The Magic are a stout defensive team that needs to improve their offensive efficiency after scoring just 100.3 ppg on .420 field goal shooting in a seven game first round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

7) Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers fired Coach J.B. Bickerstaff despite the fact that the 2023-24 squad matched reasonable expectations by finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference standings before losing in the second round to the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers went 22-50 in their first full season under Bickerstaff, improved to 44-38 the next season, went 51-31 in year three, and then posted a solid 48-34 record last season. They reached the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, and last season they won a playoff series for the first time since 2018. That was also the franchise's first playoff series win without LeBron James since 1993. It is not clear why the front office believes that the team will have significantly better results under new Coach Kenny Atkinson, who is a good coach but not a clear upgrade over Bickerstaff.

The Cavaliers signed Donovan Mitchell to a three year contract extension in July after he became just the second Cavalier to average at least 25.0 ppg, at least 5.0 rpg, and at least 5.0 apg in the same season (not surprisingly, the other Cavalier to match that feat is LeBron James). Mitchell's 29.6 ppg playoff scoring average last season is the sixth highest in Cavaliers history (minimum of 10 games), and casual fans may be surprised to learn that Mitchell owns the seventh highest career playoff scoring average (28.1 ppg) in ABA/NBA history, trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, and LeBron James.

Mitchell is a dynamic offensive player and the Cavaliers are a solid defensive team, but in their two most recent playoff runs they struggled to score efficiently even with Mitchell posting gaudy numbers. Last season, the Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference, but the three teams right behind them in the standings--Orlando, Indiana, and Philadelphia--each had 47 wins and each look better on paper this season than they did last season. The Cavaliers could very well post a comparable win total to last season and slip three spots in the standings.

8) Miami Heat: In the past five years, the Heat have reached the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023), and lost in the first round twice (2021, 2024) while also losing once in the Eastern Conference Finals (2022). They are a hard-nosed team that is good defensively, anemic offensively, and weak on the boards because they are undersized. Erik Spoelstra is one of the league's top coaches, but Jimmy Butler is 35 years old and has not played more than 65 games in a season since 2017. "Playoff Jimmy" may be a thing, but if regular season Jimmy does not show up then the Heat will have a low playoff seed and get bounced again in the first round. Even if everything breaks right for this team, it is difficult to picture the Heat beating any of the top four Eastern Conference teams in a playoff series if those teams are even close to full strength.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Atlanta Hawks went 36-46 last season, and then traded Dejounte Murray for Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, and two future first round draft picks. The Hawks ranked 21st in field goal percentage, 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in points allowed, numbers that are unlikely to improve as long as Trae Young gets the most minutes, takes the most shots, and runs the show. His 25.7 ppg and 10.8 apg last season are an excellent example of empty calorie individual numbers that do not equate to team success. 

The Chicago Bulls added Josh Giddey but subtracted Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan. The Bulls have reached the playoffs once (2022) in the past seven seasons, and that trend of missing the playoffs figures to continue in 2024-25.

Rookie Coach Jordi Fernandez has his hands full with a Brooklyn Nets roster that reflects the franchise's current plan of going young and stockpiling draft picks (also known as tanking).

The Toronto Raptors are in full rebuild mode, as no rotation players from the 2019 championship team remain on the roster. They are not necessarily in full tank mode, because they have already drafted a talented young player--Scottie Barnes--who they hope will have franchise-changing impact.

The Charlotte Hornets are all buzz and no sting, ranking 30th (last) in rebounding, 28th in scoring, 27th in defensive field goal percentage, and 26th in field goal percentage.

The Washington Wizards have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs.

Former Cleveland Coach J.B. Bickerstaff stayed in the Central Division and will try to jump start the sputtering Detroit Pistons, who posted a league-worst 14-68 record last season after posting a league-worst 17-65 record in 2022-23.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2024 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 117/152 (.770)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM

6 comments

Reflecting on Dikembe Mutombo's Legacy

Dikembe Mutombo has passed away at age 58, two years after being diagnosed with brain cancer. Mutombo was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2015 after an 18 year NBA career during which he won four Defensive Player of the Year awards (1995, 1997-98, 2001), earned eight All-Star selections (1992, 1995-98, 2000-02), and made the All-Defensive Team six times (1995, 1997-98, 1999, 2001-02). Mutombo won three shot blocking titles (1994-96) and two rebounding crowns (2000-01). Mutombo punctuated most of his blocked shots with his famous finger wag, reminding opposing players not to venture into the paint while he patrolled it. He ranks second in ABA/NBA history in career blocked shots (3289) and he ranks seventh in ABA/NBA history in career blocked shots per game (2.7). Blocked shots became an official ABA statistic in 1972-73, and they became an official NBA statistic in 1973-74.

Mutombo starred at Georgetown while being coached by Hall of Famer John Thompson and playing alongside Hall of Famer Alonzo Mourning. Mutombo won the Big East Defensive Player of the Year award twice (1990-91), and he averaged 9.9 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 3.7 bpg at Georgetown before the Denver Nuggets selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 1991 NBA Draft. Mutombo finished second to Larry Johnson in Rookie of the Year voting after averaging 16.6 ppg (which turned out to be his career-high), 12.3 rpg (third in the NBA), and 3.0 bpg (fifth in the NBA).

Mutombo's first appearance in the NBA playoffs ranks as perhaps his most memorable, challenged only by his key role in Philadelphia's most recent trip to the NBA Finals (2001). In 1994, Mutombo's eighth seeded Nuggets shocked the top seeded Seattle SuperSonics back when first round playoff series were still contested in a best of five format. Mutombo averaged 12.6 ppg and 12.2 rpg versus Seattle but his presence was most felt as a rim protector, as his 6.2 bpg wreaked havoc against the SuperSonics' offensive attack. Mutombo lying on the court cradling the basketball in two hands after Denver's 98-94 game five win is one of the iconic images in NBA history. The Nuggets lost 4-3 to the Utah Jazz in the second round of the 1994 playoffs despite Mutombo's 13.7 ppg, 11.9 rpg, and 5.4 bpg.

Mutombo spent five seasons in Denver and then signed with the Atlanta Hawks as a free agent. He played four seasons with the Hawks before being traded to Philadelphia in the middle of his fifth Atlanta season. Mutombo's defense and rebounding were just what the 76ers needed to complement Allen Iverson's explosive offensive skills. In the 2001 playoffs, Mutombo averaged 13.9 ppg, 13.7 rpg, and a league-leading 3.1 bpg as the 76ers advanced to the NBA Finals before losing 4-1 to the powerful L.A. Lakers led by Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant. The 76ers were the only team to win a playoff game versus the 2001 Lakers. 

Mutombo lasted just one more season with the 76ers before they traded him to the New Jersey Nets for Keith Van Horn and Todd MacCulloch. Mutombo was no longer an All-Star level player, but he was a reserve for the Nets when they reached the 2003 NBA Finals before losing in six games to the San Antonio Spurs.

Mutombo spent the 2003-04 season with the New York Knicks, and then he finished his career with five seasons in Houston. In addition to his shotblocking prowess, he scored 11,729 career points, and he grabbed 12,359 career rebounds (21st on the ABA/NBA all-time list).

However, even though Mutombo had an impressive playing career, his longest lasting legacy will be felt off of the court. He served as the NBA's first Global Ambassador, and he was one of the first African players who made a significant impact on the NBA, which in turned opened up the continent as a fertile ground for developing talented young players. The multi-lingual Mutombo established the Dikembe Mutombo Foundation in 1997. His foundation focused on improving the quality of life in his native Congo, and the crown jewel of those efforts was the construction of a 170-bed hospital in the capital city Kinshasa. That hospital serves the entire community, including patients who are unable to pay; the inspiration for the project was very personal for Mutombo: his mother died at home in Congo after suffering a stroke and not being able to receive adequate medical attention.

Mutombo played an unselfish game focusing on rebounding and defense, and off of the court he set a wonderful example of selfless service.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Denver Nuggets, Dikembe Mutombo, Houston Rockets, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 5:35 PM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now

The annual publication of Lindy's Pro Basketball is a happy milestone for basketball fans because that means the NBA season is just around the corner. The 2024-25 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Mike Ashley recaps the major off-season stories), "The Brunson Burner" (Mark Medina profiles Jalen Brunson), "Here Comes the Cash" (Michael Bradley details the implications of the NBA's big new broadcasting deals), "Edwards Learns His Own Hard Lessons" (Mark Medina discusses Anthony Edwards' emergence as a star), "Keeping the Faith" (Lyn Scarborough demonstrates how Jonathan Isaac is making a difference), "NBA Report Card" (Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman scouts the 2025 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Mike Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby looks back at how NBA arenas have evolved).

I wrote six team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, the end of the "Splash Brothers" era, Dejounte Murray, Chet Holmgren, why "Tanking to the Top" is a myth, and the Spurs' playoff prospects after tanking to obtain Victor Wembanyama.

This is the 16th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 5:33 PM

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Attorney Roy E. Brownell II Makes the Historical, Logical, and Moral Case for the NBA to Officially Count ABA Statistics

For over 20 years, I have insisted that ABA Numbers Should Also Count. I noted that--among other things--the list of Julius Erving's 40 point games is incomplete without including his ABA statistics, Julius Erving still holds the Nets' franchise single game scoring record, and Erving should be acknowledged by the NBA and its media partners as a member of the elite 30,000 point club.

In Setting the Record Straight: Why the NBA Needs to Officially Adopt ABA Statistics, 76 Ark. L. Rev. (2024), attorney Roy E. Brownell II articulates detailed, powerful, and multi-pronged historical, logical, and moral arguments regarding why the NBA's record book should officially include ABA statistics. His 87 page article deserves to be read in full--and should be required reading for NBA Commissioner Adam Silver--but it is important to outline the framework of Brownell's arguments so that the general public understands why this is such an important issue. Perhaps a groundswell of public opinion favoring the inclusion of ABA statistics in the NBA's record book is what it will take to fix a wrong that has existed for nearly 50 years.

Brownell begins by noting that when other major sports leagues merged they also merged their statistics, citing the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 and the combination of the American League and National League into Major League Baseball in 1903. Thus, both history and logic support the notion that when leagues merge their statistics should be combined and granted equal status. 

Brownell bases the moral case on three prongs:  

1) Black players had a significant impact on the ABA, so erasing the ABA's statistics also erases the story of that impact. 

2) In 2022, the NBA and National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) agreed to provide additional pension benefits to ABA players, in essence acknowledging the ABA's major league status.

3) The NBA makes money by selling products with ABA logos, thus benefiting from the league's rich historical legacy while simultaneously refusing to officially recognize the ABA's statistics. 

Brownell demonstrates that the modern game of basketball is in many ways built on the foundation laid by the ABA. Brownell provides a detailed discussion of the extent to which the NBA profits from the ABA without officially recognizing the ABA's statistics. Here, he summarizes the key points (footnotes omitted):

By officially acknowledging the dissolved league's statistics, the NBA would formally recognize that the ABA left a major impact on the surviving league in numerous interrelated ways: (1) contributing to a spike in interest in the NBA; (2) driving widespread acceptance of dunking and individual play; (3) pushing the NBA to adopt the three-point line; (4) moving the emphasis of the game from the post to the wing; (5) influencing the location of NBA franchises; and (6) providing new financial and marketing opportunities for the NBA. Reflected former NBA great Walt Frazier, in today's game, "The whole NBA is the ABA...[A]ll we got to do is color the ball red, white and blue." George Karl, longtime NBA coach and veteran of both leagues, expressed similar sentiments. "[T]he way the game is played
today is very ABA-ish."

Brownell points out that the NBA and its teams have conducted marketing promotions when certain players have reached career milestones that include ABA statistics (including Dan Issel and Julius Erving joining the 20,000 point club), yet the NBA's official position is that those players did not achieve those career milestones. Brownell quotes Bill Livingston regarding the NBA's shameful hypocrisy:

My, how sagging attendance can change management's viewpoint. In the past, the 76ers, with all the haughty disdain of an old-line NBA team, treated records set in the old American Basketball Association as something darn near fraudulent. But the Sixers, trying to hype their gate by any means possible, have started trumpeting a 20,000-point night for Julius Erving...Only catch is, 11,662 of Dr. J's points came in the ABA. The old-line clubs won't recognize [ABA records]...but, when a few bucks can be made, it is apparently a different story.

The ABA originated the Slam Dunk Contest and the concept of All-Star Weekend (as opposed to just playing an All-Star Game without having other side events). The ABA helped popularize the three point shot, which the NBA began using in 1979 (three years after the ABA-NBA merger). The NBA has profited greatly from All-Star Weekend and the three point shot, so it is morally wrong to profit from the ABA's legacy while refusing to grant official status to ABA statistics. Unfortunately, the NBA has demonstrated that its top priority is increasing their profits, not doing what is right.

Brownell believes that his article provides the first long-form and in depth analysis of not just the specific issue of the NBA refusing to officially count ABA statistics but also of the broader issue of how to determine major league status across professional leagues. Brownell acknowledges the short form work of various authors (he cites my writing seven times).

It is inexcusable that the NBA arrogantly refuses to officially recognize the ABA's statistics. I hope that Adam Silver and the NBA's media partners read Brownell's article and immediately grant official recognition to the ABA's statistics. 

Labels: ABA, Adam Silver, Julius Erving, NBA, Roy E. Brownell II

posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 PM

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Remembering Nick Mileti, Founding Owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers

Nick Mileti, the founding owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers who also owned several other Cleveland sports teams at various times, passed away on August 21 at the age of 93. Mileti was born in Cleveland, and he was inducted in the Greater Cleveland Sports Hall of Fame in 2005. The Alumni Center at Bowling Green State University (his undergraduate alma mater) is named in his honor. He graduated from Ohio State University Moritz College of Law in 1956, and then practiced law in the Cleveland area before purchasing the Cleveland Arena and the Cleveland Arena's main tenant, the Cleveland Barons hockey team, in 1968.

Mileti was the driving force behind the creation of the Cleveland Cavaliers expansion team in 1970. Cleveland Arena was not big enough to accommodate the Cavaliers long term, so Mileti bought land in Richfield--which is located between Cleveland and Akron--and spearheaded construction of Richfield Coliseum. At its opening in 1974, Richfield Coliseum had a seating capacity of over 20,000 for basketball, making it one of the largest--if not the largest--indoor arenas in the country at that time.

The Cavaliers played their home games in Richfield Coliseum from 1974-94. Richfield Coliseum hosted the 1981 NBA All-Star Game, during which the Eastern Conference defeated the Western Conference 123-120. Cleveland forward Mike Mitchell scored 14 points for the victors as an injury replacement for Atlanta forward Dan Roundfield. Julius Erving scored a team-high 18 points for the East, but Nate Archibald received All-Star Game MVP honors after contributing nine points, a game-high nine assists, and five rebounds. Larry Bird played his final NBA game in Richfield Coliseum, and he later called it his favorite NBA arena.

Mileti sold his ownership stake in the Cavaliers in 1980. During Mileti's tenure with the Cavaliers, the team improved from 15-67 in the 1970-71 expansion season to 49-33 in 1975-76, when the Cavaliers not only made the playoffs for the first time but advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after the "Miracle at Richfield" win over a strong Washington Bullets team led by Elvin Hayes, Wes Unseld, and Phil Chenier.

My cousins and I enjoyed going to Cavaliers games at Richfield Coliseum during the era when the Cavaliers featured Mark Price, Brad Daugherty, Ron Harper, and Larry Nance. The Cavaliers did not win an NBA title until 2016, but those late 1980s/early 1990s teams were very good and very entertaining.

Mileti owned the Cleveland Indians (now known as the Cleveland Guardians) from 1972-76, and he is justifiably credited with keeping the team in Cleveland after there had been rumblings that the previous owner might relocate the franchise. Cleveland fans wish that Mileti had been able to save the Cleveland Browns from Art Modell! Miletti was a co-owner of radio station WWWE from 1972-76 as well. The 50,000 watt clear channel station carried play by play for the Cavaliers and the Indians, and remains a regional sports powerhouse today.

In a statement released by the Cavaliers, Jim Chones--who starred for the Cavaliers before winning the 1980 NBA championship with the L.A. Lakers--declared, "I have often heard people say, 'It's not how long you live, but what you live for.' Nick was rewarded with longevity because he touched many in his mission to make Cleveland great again. His voice was soft but confident, demanding attention. He loved Cleveland, and Cleveland loved him."

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Nick Mileti, Richfield Coliseum

posted by David Friedman @ 4:45 PM

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Remembering Al Attles, Who Served the Warriors for Six Decades as a Player, Coach, General Manager, and Ambassador

Al Attles passed away on Tuesday at age 87. He won the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's prestigious John W. Bunn Lifetime Achievement Award in 2014, and he was inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame as a contributor in 2019. Attles spent over 60 years with the Warriors franchise as a player, coach, general manager, and team ambassador, a span of service with one franchise unmatched in league history.

At just 6-0, 175 pounds Attles may not have looked fearsome at first glance, but his hard-nosed style of play and his refusal to back down from any opponent earned him the nickname "The Destroyer" during an 11 year playing career with the Warriors, who he joined in 1961 when the franchise was still located in Philadelphia. The Warriors moved to the Bay Area in 1962. Attles averaged double figures in scoring four times, but he made his mark as a scrappy player who did the little things to help his team win. He ranked seventh in the league in assists in 1967-68 when league leaders were determined by totals, not averages. Although he was not a prolific scorer, Attles ranked in the top 10 in field goal percentage three times (1961-62, 1962-63, 1965-66).

Attles played with some of the greatest players of all-time, including Wilt Chamberlain, Rick Barry, and Nate Thurmond. Attles scored 17 points on 8-8 field goal shooting during Chamberlain's 100 point game, and he averaged 10.9 ppg playing alongside Chamberlain for the 1964 San Francisco Warriors team that lost 4-1 to the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. Attles averaged 7.4 ppg and 3.9 apg playing with Barry and Thurmond as the 1967 San Francisco Warriors advanced to the NBA Finals, where they lost to Chamberlain's Philadelphia 76ers. 

Attles became the Warriors' player-coach with 30 games remaining in the 1969-70 season, and he led the Warriors to a 41-41 record as a player-coach in his final season as a player in 1970-71. The San Francisco Warriors became known as the Golden State Warriors prior to the 1971-72 season, when Attles guided the team to a then franchise-record 51 wins. In 1974-75, Attles coached the Warriors to a 4-0 NBA Finals sweep of the Washington Bullets. Rick Barry played like Superman during that campaign, but the Warriors would not have triumphed without Attles' excellent coaching. Barry made this statement after Attles passed away: "My heart is heavy today with the loss of my mentor and friend. Al was my roommate during my rookie season in the league. He taught me valuable lessons on being a professional that couldn't be learned on the court. Later, as our coach during the 1975 championship season, he exemplified leadership, togetherness and a keen strategic ability that enabled us to succeed at the highest level. We shared so many wonderful and memorable moments together. My thoughts and prayers go out to his wife, Wilhelmina, and his entire family. He will be dearly missed."

Attles coached the Warriors through the 1982-83 season, and he still holds the Warriors' franchise record for most coaching wins (557). Attles joined the Warriors' front office after his coaching career, spending three years as the team's general manager before filling various other roles. In recent years, he was the team ambassador. He is one of only six players whose numbers have been retired by the Warriors franchise; his number 16 hangs in the rafters alongside the numbers of Rick Barry (24), Wilt Chamberlain (13), Tom Meschery (14), Chris Mullin (17), and Nate Thurmond (42).

Labels: Al Attles, Golden State Warriors, Nate Thurmond, Philadelphia Warriors, Rick Barry, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 9:01 AM

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Stephen Curry's Late Three Point Barrage Leads Team USA to 98-87 Olympic Gold Medal Game Win Over France

"What is easy is seldom excellent."--Samuel Johnson

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 24 points--including 12 points in the final 2:47--as Team USA held off a resilient France to win 98-87 and earn a fifth straight Olympic gold medal game victory. The 11 point final margin belies how competitive this contest was. Team USA was clinging to an 82-79 lead with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter after Victor Wembanyama's putback dunk, but then Curry hit four three pointers in a 2:12 span to save the day. Curry had a game-high +20 plus/minus number and five assists. In the first four games of the Olympics, Curry scored just 29 points and he only shot 5-20 (.200) from three point range, but in two games of medal round play versus Serbia and France he tallied 60 points while shooting 17-26 (.654) from beyond the arc. 

Kevin Durant--who started for the first time for Team USA in 2024--added 15 points, four rebounds, and four assists. He is the first American male basketball player to win four Olympic gold medals. Devin Booker also scored 15 points, and he had six rebounds, three assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+18). 

LeBron James capped off an excellent Olympics with another great all-around performance, scoring 14 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. He joined Curry and Booker as the only players with double digit plus/minus numbers (+17). James averaged 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 8.5 apg in the 2024 Olympics, earning MVP honors for the event. James headlines an Olympics All-Star Five that includes Curry, Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), and Dennis Schroder (Germany).

No other American player scored in double figures, but Anthony Davis had an impact with eight points, a game-high nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots.

Only four Team USA players played at least 20 minutes: James (32), Durant (31), Curry (30), and Booker (28). Derrick White and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Haliburton never had a significant role for Team USA, but White ranked sixth on Team USA in minutes played during pool play before falling out of the rotation in medal round play.

Joel Embiid started at center alongside James, Durant, Curry, and Booker, but he finished with just four points in 11 minutes. He did not make a field goal, and he spent much more time on the bench inciting the French crowd than on the court contributing to the win. His decision to play for Team USA instead of France turned out well for him, and he can thank Curry, Durant, James, and Booker for adding a gold medal to a trophy case that is otherwise bereft of team championships. Considering his lack of productivity versus France, it would have been hilarious if the fans had chanted at him in French the familiar taunt that is directed toward players who are helping the opposing team at least as much as they are helping their own team: "He with us!" 

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Guerschon Yabusele muscled his way to 20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Nando De Colo was the only other French player who scored in double figures (12 points). Evan Fournier runs hots and cold as a shooter, and in this game Team USA held him to eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting. France's rotations and substitution patterns were interesting, to put it mildly. Nic Batum played 25 minutes--third most on the team--despite having a plus/minus number (-20) that was -11 worse than any other French player. He led France in rebounding (eight rebounds) and assists (four) so he was productive, but when he was in the game France hemorrhaged points. In contrast, Rudy Gobert played just 12 minutes despite having a +3 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but Gobert had a positive impact with his defense, rebounding, and screen setting, so a case could be made that he earned more playing time.

In the past several years, France has consistently proven to be a worthy opponent for Team USA. Team USA beat France 87-82 in the gold medal game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) after losing to France 83-76 in the first game of pool play. France also defeated Team USA 89-79 in the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

This game proved to be no different, as it was competitive from the jump ball until the final buzzer.

James opened the scoring with a two-handed fast break dunk, and Wembanyama answered with a three pointer. Team USA led 12-11 at the 4:52 mark of the first quarter when the first substitutions were made, including Davis checking in for Embiid, and Fournier and Gobert entering for France. Tatum checked in for Durant at the 4:12 mark, when the score was still 12-11.

Team USA led 20-15 at the end of the first quarter while holding France to 1-9 three point field goal shooting, and Team USA extended that margin to 24-17 on two inside baskets by Davis. France countered with an 8-0 run to go up, 25-24. James put Team USA up 26-25 with a driving layup, but Team USA was not able to pull away. Yabusele cut Team USA's lead to 40-36 by posterizing James and then completing the three point play after James was called for a blocking foul. Team USA countered with a Curry three pointer followed by Booker's fast break layup and free throw after being fouled on the drive. Team USA led by double digits (46-36) for the first time. Yabusele's layup off of a Wembanyama feed just before the halftime buzzer trimmed Team USA's lead to eight, 49-41. 

Yabusele led France with 15 first half points, while Wembanyama had 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Booker was Team USA's only double figure scorer (13 points). James had seven points, five rebounds, and two assists. Team USA shot 9-20 (.450) from three point range in the first half while holding France to 3-16 (.188) three point field goal shooting.

Team USA began the third quarter with a 7-2 run in less than two minutes, and eventually widened the lead to 14 points (61-47), but just when it seemed like Team USA might pull away, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to pull France to within 65-56 at the 4:05 mark. After a timeout, both teams had multiple empty possessions before Fournier's three pointer cut Team USA's lead to 65-59. James answered with a three pointer to put Team USA up 68-59, and Team USA soon pushed the lead to 72-61, but France scored five points in the final 23 seconds to trail just 72-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA had seven turnovers in the third quarter.

Curry did not score in the first 7:13 of the fourth quarter before pouring in 12 of Team USA's 26 fourth quarter points. Team USA led 80-69 with less than seven minutes to go but could not sustain their double digit lead. For most of the fourth quarter, Team USA's offense featured sloppy ballhandling and missed shots, and France had outscored Team USA 13-10 in the final stanza before Curry heated up.

Team USA won the rebounding battle 37-33, but committed 17 turnovers compared to France's 13 turnovers. The key, as is often the case for Team USA in FIBA competitions, was that Team USA held France to 9-30 (.300) three point field goal shooting. As a bonus, Team USA shot 18-36 (.500) from beyond the arc. Curry did most of the long range damage with his 8-12 three point field goal shooting. 

Winning a gold medal under any circumstances is a tremendous accomplishment. Team USA was the prohibitive favorite and in the end they got the job done--but it is worth remembering that Team USA's roster included four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (James, Durant, Curry, Davis)--and this was almost certainly the last Olympics appearance for at least three of those four players. If Team USA needs that kind of overwhelming talent advantage on paper just to beat Serbia and France in very competitive games, then what foundation is Team USA building--either on this roster, or on the U19 and younger teams--for future FIBA success?

Curry's end of the game three point heroics were incredible--he zigged and zagged through France's defense like a video game character--but this is not a sustainable recipe for FIBA success because (1) this is almost certainly his last FIBA competition and (2) no one else can do what he did. If Team USA's formula for future FIBA success is going to be "Keep the game close and have one dude go ballistic for two minutes from three point range" then Team USA is going to struggle to win more gold medals versus countries that play team ball instead of hero ball. The formula for sustained FIBA success for Team USA is putting together a roster that plays stifling defense and then turns those defensive stops into transition scoring opportunities. It is fine--but not necessary--for some of those transition scoring opportunities to be three pointers, but the four late three pointers that Curry made are a testament to his individual greatness, not great game planning or ball movement.

As a Team USA fan, Curry's awesome late game shooting was exciting, but as an analyst/historian I wonder what is Team USA's plan for the future. 

Labels: 2024 Olympics, France, Guerschon Yabusele, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 10:06 PM

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Team USA Overcomes 17 Point Deficit to Defeat Serbia, 95-91

Team USA outscored Serbia 32-15 in the fourth quarter to escape with a 95-91 win that punched their ticket to a gold medal game matchup with France on Saturday. Stephen Curry scored a game-high 36 points, one short of Team USA's single game Olympics record--but Curry had his best Olympics performance in a highly competitive game, while Carmelo Anthony scored 37 points in a blowout win versus Nigeria in 2012. Curry shot 12-19 from the field (including 9-14 from three point range), and he had a game-high +20 plus/minus number. 

Joel Embiid had his best all-around game as a member of Team USA, scoring 19 points on 8-11 field goal shooting. He had seven fourth quarter points. LeBron James logged just the fourth triple double in the Olympics since the 1970s (when rebounds and assists began to be tracked consistently), and he is the only player since the 1970s with two Olympics triple doubles. James finished with 16 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high 10 assists. 

Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton did not play, while Anthony Edwards, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White each played 13 minutes or less. With Team USA staring elimination in the face, the players who Coach Steve Kerr trusted the most were Curry (33 minutes), James (32 minutes), Embiid (26 minutes), Devin Booker (24 minutes), Kevin Durant (24 minutes), and Jrue Holiday (20 minutes). 

Bogdan Bogdanovic led Serbia with 20 points, while Nikola Jokic had 17 points, a game-high 11 assists, and five rebounds. Aleksa Avramovic scored 15 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and he led Serbia's long range attack with 4-6 three point shooting. Team USA only outrebounded Serbia 34-33, and Team USA committed 10 turnovers compared to Serbia's seven turnovers.

It was evident from the opening tip that playing Serbia in the medal round is nothing like playing Brazil, the team that Team USA routed in the first game of medal round play. Serbia dominated Team USA for the first three quarters, leading 31-23 at the end of the first quarter and pushing the margin to 17 (42-25) before settling for a 54-43 halftime lead. It must be emphasized that Serbia controlled the game despite Curry putting on an incredible shooting exhibition, starting with 14 points in the first 3:38 of the game and 17 points overall in the first quarter; what wins for Team USA is not three point shooting or highlight plays, but rather stingy defense leading to transition scoring opportunities--and Team USA did not play that way until very late in the game.

Team USA trimmed the deficit to six, 65-59, on a Holiday three pointer with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but then Serbia countered with an 11-2 run to go up 76-61 with just :32 left in the third quarter. The momentum shifted at the 7:19 mark of the fourth quarter when Jokic committed his fourth foul while Serbia led, 78-70; in FIBA play, five fouls result in disqualification, so Jokic could not be as aggressive the rest of the way. On one fourth quarter possession, he backed away from Embiid in the post and gave up an open shot rather than risk being whistled for his fifth foul. 

James' driving layup tied the score at 84 with 3:41 left, and then after a Filip Petrusev dunk put Serbia back on top Curry drilled a three to give Team USA the lead for good, 87-86. Jokic's layup cut Team USA's lead to 93-91 with :26 remaining, but Serbia made a puzzling decision to let 18 seconds run off of the clock before fouling--and then they fouled Curry, whose two free throws iced the win.

Serbia shot 10-19 (.526) from three point range in the first half, and they made 15 three pointers in the first three quarters--five in each quarter--but did not make a single shot from beyond the arc in the fourth quarter as Team USA belatedly lifted their defensive focus and intensity. There could not be a better example proving the point that Team USA's shooting from three point range is not the deciding factor in these games. 

When figuring out what to make of this game, keep in mind that Team USA's roster includes four players from the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team while Serbia's team includes four players who have NBA experience. Jokic is an all-time great and Bogdanovic is a solid NBA starter, but Vasilije Micic has averaged 7.0 ppg in 60 career NBA games and Nikola Jovic has averaged 7.1 ppg in 61 career NBA games.

Here is a fascinating thought experiment: would Serbia have come within five points of beating Team USA if you switched Jokic with any one Team USA player? Keep in mind that 75th Anniversary Team members James, Curry, Durant, and Davis won most of their NBA titles by forming super teams, not by elevating teams without All-Stars. Would any of them even show up for the Olympics if they were told that their team's second best player would be Bogdan Bogdanovic? Curry led an underdog college squad at Davidson so maybe he would accept the challenge, but James, Durant, and Davis are not built like that.

I mean no disrespect to Serbia. In fact, my point is that the Serbian players are better at basketball than they are given credit for being, while American players are overrated. This is not a hot take, or an overreaction to one game. Team USA's game plan for the first 30-plus minutes versus Serbia seemed to be to hope that Curry could make enough three pointers to overcome their sluggish defense and their lack of an effective half court offense; in marked contrast, Serbia played a team game at both ends of the court. American basketball--from high school to college to the NBA--has devolved into an isolation game in which star players are protected by the officials and in which principles of team play at both ends of the court are not emphasized enough. For at least the past 20 years in FIBA play, we have regularly seen that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway. NBA players, particularly American NBA players, rely on rules that favor offense, and their statistics are inflated by that reliance; think of how often NBA players are bailed out by flopping and flailing. Embiid had an excellent game versus Serbia, but in this game and throughout the Olympics he has often flung himself to the floor--as he does all the time in the NBA--only to watch in exasperation as the FIBA referees refused to bail him out. Embiid has bragged that he would average 50 ppg in the NBA if double teaming were outlawed, but a better hypothetical to ponder is how many points he would average if the NBA stopped rewarding him for falling down. 

As I noted in my article about Team USA's performance in the USA Basketball showcase, the popular notion--repeatedly asserted by J.J. Redick--that today's NBA players are vastly superior to NBA players from previous eras does not withstand careful scrutiny. Jokic already has won an NBA championship despite not playing alongside a single All-Star, and now he nearly took down four 75th Anniversary Team members (plus a host of perennial All-Stars) with one NBA starter and two NBA reserves. Either Jokic is the greatest player of all-time, or his Serbian teammates are much better than anyone thinks, or the American players are not quite as good as their press clippings. Again, this is not based on just one game; this is based on watching more than two decades of regression of the American game--with a brief respite when Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd restored order by playing the kind of perimeter defense that is necessary for Team USA to consistently win in FIBA play: Bryant went 36-0 in FIBA play, and Kidd went 56-0 in FIBA play, but before and after their tenures with Team USA the squad suffered losses to teams that looked vastly inferior on paper if one only considers the players' NBA resumes.

Redick and others assert that the supposedly skinny NBA players of the 1990s, 1980s, and earlier would have had no chance trying to compete against James. If that is true, then why does James need three other 75th Anniversary Team members to barely beat Jokic and--no offense to Serbia--a bunch of skinny dudes who will likely never make an NBA All-Star team? I don't doubt that James would put up big individual numbers in any era, but he would not have won more championships in earlier eras than he won in his own era, unless you can picture Jokic and crew beating any championship team from the 1990s, 1980s, or 1970s. If James needs a team stacked with NBA All-Stars to barely squeak by Jokic and Serbia then James is not beating the 1970s Knicks or Celtics, or the 1980s Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, or 76ers, or the 1990s Bulls unless he has a stacked team.

This close call versus Serbia is just one more example of the extent to which American players who expect to be able to travel and palm the ball while being rewarded with free throw attempts if a defender even breathes on them are not nearly so spectacular when they are expected to play basketball by the written rules and not by the NBA's lenient interpretations of those rules. Remember when Gregg Popovich used to instruct his players to put their hands behind their backs when they guarded James Harden? Popovich was trying to prevent his players from getting into foul trouble based on the ludicrous why that Harden was officiated but--intentionally or not--he was also exposing the extent to which the NBA game is slanted to favor offense.

It is often said that the world has caught up to America in basketball, but that is overly simplistic. It is true that many of the other national teams have improved, but it is undeniable that American basketball has regressed. There is video evidence to demonstrate this. On August 8, 1992, the one and only Dream Team beat Croatia 117-85 to win Olympic gold. Team USA's starting lineup that day was Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, and David Robinson. I realize that half of the people reading this article may not have been alive in 1992, but those of us old enough to have seen all of the Dream Team's games live know the difference between their brand of basketball and the brand of basketball being played by the current version of Team USA. It is fair to say that the Dream Team would have beaten this Serbian team by at least 15-20 points, and probably more. Keep in mind that the Croatian team that the Dream Team thrashed featured three future Hall of Famers: Toni Kukoc, Drazen Petrovic, and Dino Radja. That Croatian team would probably beat this Serbian team. The Dream Team certainly made their share of highlight plays, but they won because of their mastery of basketball fundamentals at both ends of the court: they defended tenaciously, they rebounded, and they punctuated fast breaks with dunks, not "logo threes." 

It is undeniable that Team USA 2024 is far from being a Dream Team, let alone matching the real Dream Team, and even though Team USA is (and should be) the favorite versus France it is not at all certain that Team USA will win the gold medal game. France beat Team USA 83-76 in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (held in 2021), and then battled Team USA to the wire before falling 87-82 in the gold medal game.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 AM

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