20 Second Timeout

Jokic and Westbrook Make Triple Double History Together

Russell Westbrook is the career triple double leader (202), while his teammate Nikola Jokic ranks third all-time with 145 career triple doubles; those totals include a triple double for each player in Denver's 124-105 Friday night victory over Brooklyn when the duo set a record by becoming the first teammates to have a triple double in the same game twice in the same season. Jokic had 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 15 assists versus Brooklyn, while Westbrook had 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.

Their first such game happened on December 30, 2024 when Westbrook had a "perfect" triple double (signified by making all of his shots and not committing any turnovers) in a 132-121 win versus Utah. Westbrook had 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting 7-7 from the field and 2-2 from the free throw line. Jokic put up a stat line reminiscent of prime Wilt Chamberlain: 36 points, 22 rebounds, 11 assists. When Chamberlain led the NBA in assists in 1967-68 en route to winning his fourth regular season MVP, he had five 30-point triple doubles, and he had at least 20 rebounds in four of those games.

Westbrook did not shoot well during the first portion of the season, but since December 1 he has shot .514 from the field. Despite battling injuries to starters Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets are 4-2 in January and 12-8 since December 1. In six January 2025 games, Westbrook is averaging 17.3 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.3 rpg with shooting splits of .507/.370/.692. Overall, he is averaging 12.9 ppg, 6.8 apg, and 5.0 apg this season while playing in all 37 of Denver's games (16 as a starter). 

The L.A. Lakers conducted a despicable propaganda war against Westbrook, eagerly aided and abetted by LeBron James' media sycophants (including but not limited to Dave "Vampire" McMenamin and Brian "I owe it all to covering LeBron since high school" Windhorst) but--as I wrote after Westbrook finally escaped from the Lakers--"The propaganda campaign waged against Westbrook for the last year and a half is going to lose a lot of momentum now that Westbrook is playing for a legitimate NBA franchise that is more likely to utilize him correctly." Westbrook began rehabilitating his reputation during his post-Lakers stint with the L.A. Clippers from 2022-24, and this season we are seeing that Westbrook is still quite capable of playing at a high level even at the age of 36. It is fascinating to contrast how well Westbrook has played during his career alongside Kevin Durant, Paul George, and now Nikola Jokic--and how well they played alongside him--with the way that the Lakers (under the control of Player President/GM/Coach LeBron James) not only misused Westbrook but then slandered him.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 10:52 PM

1 comments

Jason "Plumber" Kidd Outcoaches J.J. "Genius" Redick as Undermanned Mavericks Rout Star-Studded Lakers

"The Lakers stink."--Charles Barkley

On Tuesday night, the L.A. Lakers visited Dallas to face an injury-decimated Mavericks team that is without the services of MVP candidate Luka Doncic, eight-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, and key big man Daniel Gafford. Clearly, this game projected to be a rout--and it was, but in favor of the Mavericks, 118-97. The Mavericks had lost their previous 10 games played sans Doncic and Irving. TNT's Reggie Miller called it a "gritty win" for the Mavericks. That is true, but this is also a humiliating and inexcusable loss for the talent-laden Lakers featuring LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.

Quentin Grimes scored a game-high 23 points while shooting 8-17 from the field (including 6-11 from three point range). P.J. Washington (22 points) also scored more points than James or Davis. Spencer Dinwiddie added 19 points. Dinwiddie was a Laker last season. It sure is great for the Lakers that they did not retain his services, and kept a roster spot open for LeBron's son Bronny, who has scored four points this season--to be clear, Bronny is not averaging 4 ppg: he has scored four total points. 

The Mavericks outrebounded the Lakers 44-33, and the Mavericks shot 45-86 (.523) from the field. The Lakers have tremendous advantages in size and skill that could/should be exploited in the paint--but the Mavericks outscored the Lakers 52-40 in the paint as the Lakers eschewed high percentage two points shots while shooting just 11-35 (.314) from three point range.

Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 21 points but he shot just 7-18 from the field, including 2-7 from three point range. Davis had a game-high 12 rebounds. James filled up the boxscore with empty numbers, amassing a near triple double with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. Davis' plus/minus number was -19, and James' plus/minus number was -12. 

One play from this game is a microcosm of why players should not be evaluated just based on their individual statistics alone. With less than five seconds remaining in the third quarter, James grabbed a defensive rebound, dribbled up court, stopped a few feet beyond the three point line, and passed the ball with less than one second remaining; time ran out without the Lakers taking a shot, and James managed to avoid both a missed shot and a turnover, so the play was successful in terms of preserving his vaunted "efficiency"--but his team trailed by 13 points, so the unselfish team-first play would be to take a three pointer from the top of the key; maybe the shot goes in, maybe James is fouled, but there is no potential downside for the team even though James risked adding a missed field goal attempt to his personal statistics. Passing the ball when there is not enough time for the intended recipient to shoot just wastes the possession for the team (but not for a player who is obsessively focused on his personal statistics). That play did not decide the outcome of the game, but it speaks volumes about James' basketball values, and about the mentality of this Lakers team. When the team's best player cares more about his numbers than he does about winning, that attitude permeates the entire roster. It is not a mystery why the Lakers often look lackadaisical; the tone of not focusing on team success is set at the top of the roster, and then cascades through the rest of the roster.

How did the Mavericks win this game? Simple--Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick. Redick's team has the two best players, but Redick could not figure out how to exploit his team's obvious matchup advantages on offense, and his team's defense was awful, which highlights his limitations both as a motivator and as a strategist. After the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, I provided this assessment: "In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort."

When Redick took this job, he declared that he signed up to coach a "championship caliber" team. If his assessment is that the Lakers are a championship caliber team then it is fair to ask why they are not playing at a championship level. Redick will never admit that his lack of NBA coaching experience and acumen is a problem, so it will be interesting to see when the Lakers figure this out (or admit it to themselves); I suspect that this will not happen until James retires or until James is no longer playing well enough to justify the top to bottom control he currently exercises over the franchise in terms of hiring/firing coaches and making personnel moves (including the drafting of his son Bronny, who is not an NBA caliber player and will not be an NBA caliber player for the foreseeable future).

There is still more than half the season left, but it does not seem likely that Redick will turn out to be the next Pat Riley.

When Redick worked as a TV commentator and as a podcaster, he made the ridiculous assertion that Bob Cousy's statistics are not impressive because Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen."  Kidd's NBA playing career began in 1994, which is past the era during which NBA players regularly had other jobs during the offseason, but Redick--with his rampant recency bias and slavish devotion to promoting LeBron James while denigrating the great players of the past--has taken potshots at that era as well, dismissing it as watered down due to expansion. 

It was fun watching Jason "Plumber" Kidd outcoach J.J. "Genius" Redick. Kidd played the game at a high level for a long time and, unlike Redick, Kidd played both ends of the court. Charles Barkley called Kidd's coaching in this game a "master class," and it goes without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that Redick's coaching was the opposite of a master class. Call it amateur hour, befitting of someone whose only prior coaching experience was coaching his son and other amateur kids. During his post-game press conference, Redick emphasized that during this game the Lakers played defensive coverages that he has never seen. Presumably, his intended point is that he knows defensive coverages but his players are clueless; however, Redick's statement is a self-indictment of his inept coaching, because there are only two reasons for the Lakers to play defensive coverages that he has never seen: one reason is that Redick is not good at teaching defense to NBA players, and the other reason is that the players do not respect Redick enough to do what he asks them to do.

The Lakers played so poorly that the poster child for NBA nepotism--Bronny James--made a rare appearance (just his ninth game played this season), logging one minute of garbage time and putting together a "trillionaire" boxscore number of one minute played followed by zeroes in all other categories (though, it should be noted, he managed to have a -4 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance).

This is one game in an 82 game season. I am not foolish enough to think that the legacies of players or coaches are defined by one game. The larger point is that the way that the Lakers played versus the Mavericks reflects issues and trends that have been apparent for several years--ever since the Lakers won the "bubble title" in 2020--and thus cannot properly be dismissed as an aberration. This is the sixth time in 36 games this season that the Lakers lost by at least 20 points. As Chris Berman loves to say (though the expression does not originate with him), "Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a problem." This game is an indictment of a problem, and not just an "accident."

The two greatest things about Redick coaching the Lakers are (1) we don't have to hear his asinine takes about basketball history as an ESPN commentator and as a podcaster, and (2) he will be an endless source of unintentional comedy with his combination of inept coaching and arrogant refusal to take responsibility for his team's losses, much like James Harden provides comic relief with his "concert tour" playoff field goal percentages.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, Jason Kidd, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, P.J. Washington, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie

posted by David Friedman @ 1:30 AM

4 comments

Russell Westbrook's "Perfect" Triple Double Provides a Reminder of How Exceptional He is

The Denver Nuggets' 132-121 victory versus the Utah Jazz on Monday December 30 featured two triple doubles. Denver's MVP candidate (and three-time NBA regular season MVP) Nikola Jokic had the 144th triple double of his career (36 points, 22 rebounds, 11 assists), and his teammate Russell Westbrook had the 201st triple double of his career (16 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Jokic ranks third all-time in triple doubles, behind only Oscar Robertson (181) and Westbrook (201), who became the triple double king in 2021. While Jokic had the "bigger" triple double versus Utah, Westbrook had the more uncommon triple double: Westbrook did not miss a shot (7-7 FG, 2-2 FT) and did not commit a turnover, authoring just the third "perfect" triple double since the NBA began officially tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season. Jokic (in 2018) and Domantas Sabonis (earlier this season) are the only other players who have had "perfect" triple doubles. This is the second time that Westbrook shot 100% from the field during a triple double game.

Denver Coach Michael Malone effusively praised Westbrook: "First-ballot Hall of Famer, one of the greatest point guards to ever play the game. And what I admire so much about him, aside from the leadership and toughness that he brings every single day, is he's got no ego." Malone added, "He came here for one reason and that's to help us win a championship. And he hates to lose, and that's another thing I love about him. He's built the right way, and I'll go to war with Russell Westbrook any day."

If you understand basketball in general and the NBA game in particular, then you love the way Westbrook plays. Hubie Brown praises Westbrook to the sky. Unfortunately, many uninformed media members--including Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper--look for any excuse to bash Westbrook and minimize the value of his accomplishments. Contrary to what Westbrook's loudest critics often assert, rebounds are not fungible in general, and Westbrook's rebounds specifically are not fungible.

Seven of the top 12 career leaders in triple doubles are active players. It could be argued that triple doubles in general are easier to get now than in previous eras due to lenient scorekeeping for assists, but it is biased and foolish to praise some players' triple doubles while acting as if the triple doubles by the all-time triple double leader are worthless; the distance between Westbrook and Robertson on the career triple double list--20--would tie Charles Barkley and Tom Gola for 29th all-time. Kevin Durant, Scottie Pippen, Bill Russell, Kevin Garnett, and Stephen Curry are just a few of the Hall of Famers/future Hall of Famers who have less than 20 career triple doubles. In other words, Westbrook is head and shoulders above everyone in terms of triple doubles, and the margin of his dominance cannot be explained just by the nature of how the game is played now or by how statistics are recorded now.

Denver fans need not concern themselves with how easy or difficult it is to get a triple double, or with how many career triple doubles Jokic and Westbrook will have, because what matters most now for their team is that Westbrook's energy and unselfishness are, as I predicted, a breath of fresh air for a Nuggets team that lacks depth.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Domantas Sabonis, Michael Malone, Nikola Jokic, Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:25 AM

22 comments

Mike Brown's Firing Demonstrates that the Kings Are Still Dysfunctional

Last Friday, the Sacramento Kings fired Coach Mike Brown just before the team boarded a flight to Los Angeles, right after he conducted practice and met with the media. That is a bad and dysfunctional but not surprising look for a team that has been bad and dysfunctional for the better part of the past 20 years. In his first season with the Kings, Brown was the unanimous selection as the 2023 NBA Coach of the Year after the Kings posted a 48-34 record--their first winning season since 2005-06, and their best winning percentage since 2004-05. Brown led the Kings to a 46-36 record last season--the first time the Kings had consecutive winning seasons since 2005-06--but the Kings let go of Brown after a 13-19 start this season, a .406 winning percentage that is better than the full season winning percentages of every Kings team from 2009-18. Brown's track record prior to arriving in Sacramento includes winning the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to the best regular season record (66-16) in franchise history, a mark that still stands. Brown was an assistant coach on four NBA championship teams (San Antonio 2003, Golden State 2017-18, 2022), and it is a good bet that if he does not receive a head coaching offer soon then he will be on the bench of a top contender as an assistant coach.

Brown's brief Sacramento tenure is the only bright spot on the franchise's otherwise dismal track record of losing followed by coaching changes followed by more losing; the Kings have had 12 coaches since 2006, and Brown is the only one of those 12 coaches who posted a winning record (107-89) with the Kings. Four of those 12 coaches--Brown, Paul Westphal, George Karl, and Michael Malone--led other teams to the NBA Finals, and Malone's Denver Nuggets won the 2023 NBA title, a track record which strongly suggests that the Kings' problem is not bad coaching but mismanagement.

Brown took over a Kings team that ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings ranked 17th and 21st respectively in those categories last season, and they ranked 19th and 15th respectively so far this season prior to Brown being fired. However, the Kings' leadership may not understand the importance of defense, and thus may not place sufficient value on the type of program Brown built. The Kings had a positive point differential this season despite their losing record, a statistic that suggests that over a larger sample size they would turn things around.

Vivek Ranadive has been the Kings' majority owner since 2013. In 2014, he suggested that it would be optimal for a team to keep one player on offense for the entire game and thus to play defense four on five--an idea that only sounds intelligent or reasonable to someone who made a lot of money outside of basketball but does not have a clue about what it takes to win basketball games.

Media members regularly display their ignorance of basketball history, and media members often have a poor understanding of the intricacies of high level NBA coaching, so don't hold your breath waiting for media members to produce intelligent and objective analysis of Brown's Sacramento tenure; such analysis was not forthcoming earlier in Brown's career, and it is even less likely to be forthcoming now in a media landscape dominated by loud mouths who confuse decibel level with IQ level and whose "hot takes" are devoid of intelligent analysis.

However, it is interesting and revealing to consider the comments made by Brown's coaching peers. Denver Coach Michael Malone did not mince words about Brown's firing: "I'm not surprised that Mike Brown got fired, because I got fired by the same person. And what really pissed me off about it was the fact that they lost [Thursday] night, fifth game in a row, I believe. Tough loss...They had practiced this morning. He does his postgame media, and he's in his car going to the airport to fly to L.A. and they call him on the phone. No class, no balls. That's what I'll say about that."

Indiana Pacers Coach (and longtime President of the National Basketball Coaches Association) Rick Carlisle called the firing "shocking to me and I'm sure all the people in our profession." He added, "I had the privilege of working with Mike when I was in Indiana coaching the first time. I view him as one of the standard bearers for integrity for our profession. And I'm just absolutely shocked that that decision was made."

Much like the New York Knicks spent decades stuck in mediocrity (or worse) until the owner hired smart people and then left the smart people alone to do their jobs, the Sacramento Kings will remain stuck in mediocrity (or worse) until the owner stops trying to prove that he is the smartest man in the room; there are few things more likely to destroy any group or organization than having someone in charge who is not nearly as smart as he thinks he is.

Labels: Michael Malone, Mike Brown, Rick Carlisle, Sacramento Kings, Vivek Ranadive

posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 AM

7 comments

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 17th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 77th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. The 2024 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics, the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers (granted, the latter three teams have significantly different rosters now than they did when they won their respective championships).

Game One: New York Knicks 117, San Antonio Spurs 114

1) The Knicks started this season 4-5, but they went 15-5 in their next 20 games to vault up to third in the Eastern Conference standings behind Cleveland and Boston. The Knicks have a very efficient offense paced by Karl-Anthony Towns (24.7 ppg with .537/.456/.841 shooting splits) and Jalen Brunson (24.6 ppg with .488/.434/.814 shooting splits). Their defense was shaky during the first nine games, but improved in the next 20 games. 

After posting back to back 22-60 seasons, the Spurs entered this game with a respectable 15-14 record. Victor Wembanyama, the 2024 Rookie of the Year, is averaging 24.8 ppg and leading the league with 4.0 bpg after leading the league last season with 3.6 bpg.

2) On November 8, 2023, the Knicks dominated the Spurs 126-105 the first time that Wembanyama faced the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, and Wembanyama had just 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. Wembanyama's second visit to Madison Square Garden went much better individually as he scored a game-high 42 points on 16-31 field goal shooting while also ripping down a game-high 18 rebounds, but his heroics were not enough to deliver a win. Wembanyama had a game-high four blocked shots and he dished for four assists while accumulating a +7 plus/minus number, but three of the Spurs' five starters had negative plus/minus numbers as the Knicks outscored the Spurs by 10 points in the non-Wembanyama minutes. Jeremy Sochan had 21 points and nine rebounds, but he also tallied a game-high five turnovers along with a -12 plus/minus number. 

Mikal Bridges scored a team-high 41 points, just four points short of his career high and the second most points scored by a Knick on Christmas Day, trailing only Bernard King's legendary 60 point outburst in 1984. Bridges shot 17-25 from the field in his highest scoring game with New York. Towns battled foul trouble to finish with 21 points and nine rebounds, but he posted a game-worst -13 plus/minus number (tied with the Spurs' Devin Vassell). Brunson added 20 points, a game-high nine assists (tied with the Spurs' Tre Jones), and seven rebounds, but he shot just 7-23 from the field. Josh Hart chipped in 12 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 47-45, and outscored the Spurs in the paint 58-50.

The Knicks led 28-27 at the end of the first quarter, outrebounding the Spurs 17-12 but shooting just 11-28 (.393) from the field. The Knicks outscored the Spurs in the paint, 18-10. Wembanyama scored 10 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, but no other Spur had more than four points. Bridges (nine points), Towns (eight points), and Brunson (seven points) paced the Knicks.

The Spurs flipped the script in the second quarter, outrebounding the Knicks 16-4 and outscoring the Knicks in the paint 22-10 to take a 58-51 halftime lead. Wembanyama had 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first half.

The Knicks closed the third quarter with a 10-0 run--capped by a Bridges three pointer off of a slick Brunson feed--to lead 88-83 heading into the final stanza.

Jones' three point play with 7:16 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-94, but Bridges scored 12 points down the stretch (and 15 fourth quarter points overall) to lift the Knicks to a hard-earned win.

3) This game is a good example of the small yet not so small differences between a playoff-hardened team that knows how to win and a team that has not yet learned how to win; like most NBA games, this contest featured runs by both teams and excellent individual performances by players from both teams, but down the stretch the Knicks executed better at both ends of the court. After Chris Paul's three pointer cut the Knicks' lead to three with 41.7 seconds remaining, the Knicks secured two offensive rebounds in the final 17 seconds, enabling them to run out the clock and deny the Spurs a chance to tie the game.

Game Two: Minnesota Timberwolves 105, Dallas Mavericks 99

1) This game is a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Finals, a series that the Mavericks won 4-1 to advance to the NBA Finals. The Mavericks have picked up where they left off last season, and are in a tight three way battle with Houston and Memphis for the second seed in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. In contrast, the Timberwolves have slipped significantly after trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations; contrary to the popular notion that small ball is the way to go, the aftermath of this trade is demonstrating yet again that size matters in the NBA. Towns is leading the NBA in rebounding (13.9 rpg) for the Knicks, while the Timberwolves have dropped from 15th in the league in rebounding last season to 23rd this season sans Towns.

2) The Timberwolves only led 26-24 at the end of the first quarter, but they were already up 42-35 with 6:21 remaining in the second quarter when Luka Doncic was sidelined with a left calf injury. Doncic, who scored 14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in 16 minutes, was unable to return to action, and the Timberwolves exploited his absence to push the margin to 17 points (57-40) by halftime. Dallas players not named Doncic shot 9-34 (.265) from the field in the first half. Despite not playing in the second half, Doncic was the Mavericks' second leading scorer for the entire game.

The Timberwolves led 90-62 with just 1:23 remaining in the third quarter. ESPN commentator Jay Bilas talked about how much fun Minnesota was having. The Mavericks ended the quarter with a 6-0 run, but that just looked like window dressing. However, the Timberwolves scored just seven points in the first 8:42 of the fourth quarter, and they were clinging to a 101-99 lead after Klay Thompson drilled a three pointer at the 1:05 mark. After an Anthony Edwards turnover, Kyrie Irving missed a three pointer that would have put the Mavericks up by one, and the Timberwolves closed out the scoring with an Edwards layup followed by two Randle free throws. 

Edwards scored a team-high 26 points while also grabbing eight rebounds and passing for five assists. Randle contributed 23 points, a game-high 10 rebounds (tied with teammate Rudy Gobert and Dallas' Dereck Lively II), and a game-high eight assists.

Irving poured in a game-high 39 points on 14-27 field goal shooting, including 26 second half points on 9-14 field goal shooting. Bilas joined the chorus of media members who call Irving the greatest ballhandler ever without defining what that means or even stating who else is in the running for that subjective honor. Does it mean being fancy and flashy? If so, Irving does not hold a candle to Pete Maravich, who not only could do everything that Irving does and more but was decades ahead of his time with his showmanship. Does it mean controlling the tempo of the game at the highest level for multiple championship teams? If so, Irving does not rank ahead of Bob Cousy, Walt Frazier, Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas. Does it mean being highly efficient in terms of assists versus turnovers? If so, Irving (4269 assists, 1885 turnovers, 2.3 assist/turnover ratio) is far behind John Stockton (15,806 assists, 4244 turnovers, 3.7 assist/turnover ratio) both in total assists and assist/turnover ratio. The recency bias displayed even by sensible commentators like Bilas is perplexing; at least Bilas did not overtly disrespect Cousy and other past greats the way that J.J. Redick, Amin Elhassan, Zach Harper, and others have done.

3) One win against Dallas sans Doncic is not enough evidence to prove that the Timberwolves have righted their ship, particularly considering that the Timberwolves almost fumbled the game away. Regarding the Mavericks, they should be concerned not only about Doncic's health--he recently returned to action after missing two games with a left heel injury--but also about how flat they looked in the first half even before losing Doncic.

Game Three: Philadelphia 76ers 118, Boston Celtics 114

1) The Boston Celtics started 23-6 last season en route to posting a league-best 64-18 record before winning their first NBA title since 2008. This season, the Celtics started 22-7, trailing only the red hot Cleveland Cavaliers (26-4) in the Eastern Conference and the 23-5 Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the Western Conference's best record. Jayson Tatum has made the All-NBA First Team in each of the past three seasons, and this season he is posting the second highest scoring average of his career (28.8 ppg) along with career-high numbers in rebounding (9.3 rpg) and assists (5.7 apg).

Under the terms of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, Joel Embiid is already ineligible to receive any postseason awards because he will not participate in at least 65 regular season games. He entered Christmas Day averaging 20.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 4.1 apg in eight games; his 76ers went 3-5 in those games, and they began the day with a 12-17 record that ranked 12th in the Eastern Conference.

2) The 76ers' highly touted "Big Three" of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey played together for just the sixth time this season. Maxey scored a game-high 33 points on 12-23 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 12 assists, and posting a solid +7 plus/minus number. Embiid added 27 points and nine rebounds but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number; usually the 76ers are much better with Embiid on the court, but in this game when Embiid played they leaked oil like an old clunker. George was a non-factor with 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting and a -16 plus/minus number, but Caleb Martin picked up the slack with 23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including 7-9 from three point range.

Tatum scored a team-high 32 points, grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, and passed for four assists with a +5 plus/minus number. Jaylen Brown bounced back from a bad first half to finish with 23 points, Derrick White added 21 points, and the seemingly ageless Al Horford had 17 points. Horford had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, but he and Tatum were the only Celtics with positive plus/minus numbers; the other eight Celtics who played had plus/minus numbers ranging from -1 to -13. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes can be "noisy," but it is fair to say that the Celtics won many of the Embiid versus Horford minutes and lost just about every other matchup combination. Horford has had success guarding Embiid over the years, so this is not surprising.

3) Maxey scored 12 points as the 76ers built a 30-25 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 76ers led by as much as 16 during the second quarter before settling for a 66-58 halftime edge after outscoring the Celtics 36-33 in a defense-optional 12 minute stretch. 

Brown scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting in the first half but he took over in the third quarter with 14 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, nearly matching the 76ers by himself as the Celtics won the quarter 24-16 to tie the score at 82 heading into the final stanza.

The fourth quarter mirrored the second quarter, with the 76ers outscoring the Celtics 36-32. The 76ers led 108-94 after Martin's three pointer at the 4:29 mark, but Maxey committed three turnovers in the next two minutes as the Celtics pulled to within 108-105. The 76ers did not score a field goal in the final 4:29, but they made enough free throws to survive.

4) To win an NBA championship, a team must be consistently efficient and productive while maintaining the health of its core group of players for over 100 games during the regular season and the playoffs. The 76ers played their best game of the season versus a Boston team without the services of Jrue Holiday and without the services of Kristaps Porzingis in the second half, and they celebrated after the game as if they had just won a championship; this brings to mind the way that Doug Collins used to make note of which teams celebrated after winning a game and which teams acted like there is a lot more work to do. Collins' point was that the teams that expect to win and that understand the bigger picture are more likely to be successful than teams that get too excited about an early season victory.

To win the 2025 NBA championship, the 76ers must maintain this performance level and this health level for about 80 more games--and, based on the individual and collective resumes of their core players, there is no logical reason to expect them to come close to doing that: Embiid never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his first eight seasons, Paul George has an 8-11 career playoff series record (including 0-3 in the Conference Finals), and Tyrese Maxey has a 3-4 career playoff series record. Maxey is young enough to develop into a consistently great playoff performer, but Embiid and George are who their resumes say they are.

Game Four: L.A. Lakers 115, Golden State Warriors 113

1) ESPN loves to hype up the Lakers and the Warriors, but entering today's action the Lakers were the seventh seeded team in the Western Conference, a half game ahead of the eighth seeded Warriors. That means that these are Play-In Tournament teams, not championship contenders. This should not surprise anyone: the Lakers have not finished higher than seventh in the regular season standings since they won the 2020 "bubble" championship, missing the playoffs once, losing in the first round twice, and making one fluky run to the Western Conference Finals; since 2020, the Warriors have finished higher than seventh just twice while winning one title (2022), missing the playoffs twice, and losing in the second round once.

Three weeks ago, I assessed the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, concluding that his 12-10 Lakers "have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort." In their next seven games, the Lakers went 4-3 and did nothing to refute the above analysis.

The Warriors started the season 10-3, and the ESPN hype machine nearly exploded, paying no attention to the reality that five of those wins were against Portland, Utah, New Orleans (twice), and Washington (the three worst teams in the Western Conference and the worst team in the league). The Warriors went 5-11 in their next 16 games, failing to score at least 100 points five times and giving up at least 108 points seven times, reaching a nadir in both directions on December 19 with a 144-93 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

2) The Lakers built a 55-52 halftime lead despite losing Anthony Davis to an ankle injury after seven scoreless minutes. The Lakers played better without Davis, who had a -7 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance, but this is small sample size theater, and not an indication that the Lakers would be better long-term without Davis, who is leading the team in scoring (26.6 ppg), rebounding (11.8 rpg), and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) this season. 

LeBron James led both teams with 19 first half points, while Stephen Curry topped the Warriors with 16 points. The Lakers outrebounded the Warriors 24-21 and committed just two turnovers while the Warriors had six turnovers. The Lakers also shot 9-9 from the free throw line while the Warriors were just 1-3 from the free throw line.

The Warriors narrowly outplayed the Lakers in a tightly contested second half, outscoring the Lakers 61-60, outrebounding the Lakers 23-17, and committing six turnovers while the Lakers committed seven turnovers, but the outcome was decided in the exciting final 22 seconds. Before dissecting the ebbs and flows of those last possessions, it should be noted that the Lakers led 104-94 with 3:27 remaining before a 13-5 Warriors run put the outcome in doubt. In other words, better execution by the Lakers could have sealed the win earlier.

The late drama began after Max Christie drained two free throws to put the Lakers up 111-107. The Warriors called a timeout, and then on the ensuing possession Stephen Curry drilled a right corner three pointer over James' outstretched arms. Austin Reaves hit two free throws to make the score 113-110, and the ESPN crew of Mike Breen, Doris Burke, and Richard Jefferson discussed the merits of intentionally fouling before the Warriors could attempt a tying three pointer. Burke noted that when Redick was a commentator he expressed his opinion that teams should always fall in this situation. The Warriors befuddled the Lakers by having multiple players cut through the paint (a distraction that a well-coached team would ignore, because a two pointer would not help a team that is down by three and has no timeouts left), and then Curry nailed a three pointer. Curry did not celebrate, because he knew that the game was tied with 6.3 seconds remaining, which meant that the Lakers had enough time to win the game in regulation. On the Lakers' last possession, Reaves drove from behind the three point line on the left wing all the way to the hoop to drop in the game-winning layup.

There is no doubt that this game had an exciting conclusion with Curry's two spectacular treys followed by Reaves' foray to the hoop, but--as noted above--the Warriors were 5-11 in their previous 16 games and the Lakers have not exactly been setting the world on fire. This game was entertaining and fun to watch, but in June 2025 we will not be looking back and saying that this was a pivotal point in determining who this season's champion will be.

James scored a team-high 31 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying 10 assists. Reaves not only scored the game-winner, but he also had a triple double (26 points, team-high 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Rui Hachimura (18 points), Max Christie (16 points), and Dalton Knecht (13 points) were the Lakers' other double figure scorers.

Curry scored a game-high 38 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 8-15 from three point range. Andrew Wiggins had 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Even with Curry, the Warriors are not a great offensive team--and, as the last possession highlighted (losing a game on a drive to the hoop from behind the three point line is suboptimal, to put it mildly), the Warriors are not a great defensive team, either. Being not great at either end of the court adds up to being a .500 team.

3) After spending most of his career missing a lot of games due to various injuries, Davis played a career-high 76 games last season and has only missed one game this season, so it will be interesting to see how long he is sidelined by the ankle injury that he suffered in this game. Speculating about how good the Lakers might be if Davis consistently stayed healthy is pointless unless/until he consistently stays healthy. In Davis' first 12 seasons, he played at least 70 games three times, and he played less than 65 games (the current standard to be eligible for postseason awards) seven times. Davis will turn 32 before the end of this season; is he going to find the fountain of youth/health now after not discovering it during his prime?

Game Five: Phoenix Suns 110, Denver Nuggets 100

1) Nikola Jokic is posting historic numbers this season, ranking second in the league in scoring (career-high 30.9 ppg), fourth in rebounding (12.5 rpg), and third in assists (9.7 rpg) while leading the league in three point field goal percentage (.514). When he is on the court, the Nuggets often look like a championship contender, but when he is not on the court the Nuggets often look like a Draft Lottery team. That explains why Jokic is averaging a career-high 37.1 mpg. The Nuggets have overcome injuries and a thin bench to post the fifth best record in the strong Western Conference.

The Suns entered Christmas Day with a 13-5 record when Kevin Durant played, and a 1-9 record when he did not play; the Suns are a finesse team that often gets pushed around, and they are not very good without Durant.

2) ESPN's Stephanie White correctly noted that Russell Westbrook has had a positive impact on the Nuggets because of the way that he pushes the pace and because of his playmaking. It is refreshing to listen to a commentator who does not make up nonsensical excuses to bash Westbrook, who has proven throughout his career that he is a great, loyal teammate who consistently plays hard. Westbrook entered the game averaging 12.0 ppg, 6.4 apg (second on the team), 4.1 rpg, and 1.7 spg (first on the team) while playing 25.9 mpg and coming off of the bench in 20 out of his first 27 games (the 36 year old is one of just four Nuggets to not miss a game this season). 

3) Devin Booker missed his third straight game, and the Suns were also without the services of Grayson Allen (who is in concussion protocol)--but they had Durant and Bradley Beal, which proved to be more than enough. The Suns built a 58-56 halftime lead by shooting 21-41 (.512) from the field while committing just four turnovers, a high level of offensive efficiency that compensated for being outrebounded 25-18. Durant and Beal scored 14 points each in the first half.

The Suns did not shoot well in the second half (20-46, .435), but they played uncharacteristically well defensively, holding the Nuggets to 44 points on 14-33 (.424) field goal shooting. The Suns had just three turnovers while the Nuggets had nine in the second half alone and 16 in the game. The Suns led by as many as 15 points in the second half, and they did not trail in the fourth quarter.

Denver blew out Phoenix 117-90 in Denver on December 23, holding the Suns to 33-83 (.398) field goal shooting and outrebounding the Suns 46-39; it is clear that game was very much on the Suns' minds during this game.

Durant and Bradley Beal tied for game-high scoring honors (27 points). Durant had a game-high six assists (tying teammates Jusuf Nurkic and Royce O'Neale, and Denver's Jamal Murray). Tyus Jones contributed 17 points and four assists, while Nurkic had eight points, and a team-high 13 rebounds. Jokic led the Nuggets with 25 points and a game-high 15 rebounds, but he had just two assists. Michael Porter Jr. scored 22 points, and Westbrook added 17 points, six rebounds, and a team-high +3 plus/minus number (he was the only Nugget with a positive plus/minus number).

4) One of my favorite plays from this game happened at the end of the first half. Jokic grabbed a defensive rebound with less than five seconds remaining, took a few dribbles, and launched a three pointer from just inside the half court line. What is so great about that? As mentioned above, Jokic is leading the league in three point field goal percentage, but instead of trying to protect his personal statistics he took that desperation heave because if it goes in then it helps his team and if it misses no harm is done because time will run out. There are many players who either will not take that desperation heave, or who make sure to wait until just after time expires before letting it go. Shane Battier once admitted that is the only selfish kind of play that he made during his career, because field goal percentage could matter at contract time.

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 1:21 AM

8 comments

NBA and NBPA Jointly Announce New All-Star Game Format

The NBA All-Star Game has become an embarrassment and a travesty, culminating in the 2024 fiasco during which the teams combined to score 397 points while attempting 168 three point shots and just five free throws. A strong Commissioner would have announced right after that game that--due to lack of player interest in participating in a meaningful game--the All-Star Game will be discontinued; sure, the NBPA would have been outraged because many players have contract clauses promising them bonuses for being selected as an All-Star, but a strong statement by the Commissioner would have put the players on blast and put the onus on the players to do better. 

Unfortunately, the NBA does not have a strong Commissioner like David Stern. The NBA is stuck with Adam Silver, who is a weak Commissioner, as I recently noted: 

Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.

Instead of fixing the All-Star Game problem, Silver--as I expected and predicted--is giving the All-Stars more money and begging them to play hard; the NBA and NBPA jointly announced yet another change to the All-Star Game format:

For the first time, the NBA All-Star Game will feature a mini-tournament with four teams and three games.  Two teams will meet in one semifinal (Game 1), and the remaining two teams will meet in the other semifinal (Game 2).  The winning teams from Game 1 and Game 2 will advance to face each other in the championship (Game 3).  For each game, the winner will be the first team to reach or surpass 40 points.

Each team will have eight players and be named for a TNT NBA analyst.  The 24 NBA All-Star selections will be divided evenly into three teams, with the rosters drafted by TNT’s Inside the NBA commentators and honorary team general managers Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith.  The three analysts will make their respective picks for Team Chuck, Team Shaq and Team Kenny live on TNT in the NBA All-Star Draft, which will be conducted on Thursday, Feb. 6 just before the network’s doubleheader that night.

The fourth team will be the winning team from the championship game of the Castrol Rising Stars, the annual showcase of top first- and second-year NBA players and NBA G League standouts, which will be played on Friday, Feb. 14 during NBA All-Star 2025... 

The four teams participating in the NBA All-Star Game will compete for a prize pool of $1.8 million, with each player on the championship-winning team receiving $125,000, each player on the second-place team receiving $50,000 and each player on the third- and fourth-place teams receiving $25,000.

The first thing that comes to mind after reading the above paragraphs is that when the format cannot be explained simply the format is too convoluted. The NBA All-Star Game format used to be "The best players from the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference--as selected by the fans and the players--will play one game under normal rules." The NBA All-Star Game did not have the intensity of game seven of the NBA Finals, but it also did not feature players running up and down the court shooting crazy shots without playing a lick of defense. 

The second thing that comes to mind about the "new and improved" NBA All-Star Game format is that each player on the winning All-Star team received $100,000 last year, while the players on the losing team received $25,000 each; in other words, as a reward for embarrassing themselves and the league by not taking the All-Star Game seriously, the players are being given a larger All-Star game prize pool.

The new format is gimmicky, and is yet another example of just how clueless and weak Adam Silver is. A strong Commissioner would not "fix" the All-Star Game by turning it into something completely different; a strong Commissioner would either convince the players that it is in their best interest to take the All-Star Game seriously, or he would discontinue the All-Star Game: in 1998, David Stern replaced the Slam Dunk Contest with the WNBA-NBA 2Ball competition (which is not to say that 2Ball was great, but the point is that when the Slam Dunk Contest declined Stern got rid of it--and when he brought it back in 2000, Vince Carter had one of the most memorable performances in the event's history).

The players run the league now, and at this rate they are going to run it into the ground; ratings are down this season, which is the first sign that the golden goose of huge media rights deals may not live forever: if the ratings continue to decline, then the price for the rights fees will be cut, which will in turn lower the salary cap and lower salaries. Maybe that won't happen, or maybe today's players don't care about that possibility because their goal is to get as much cash as they can get now regardless of what happens later--but for those of us who love the game and love the history of the game, it is disheartening to watch the current version of the NBA that is marred by a general lack of competitive spirit, tanking, load management, and excessive reliance on high variance three point shooting. 

In an unrelated yet related story, the NBA is reportedly considering doubling the length of the NBA Cup from four games of group play to eight games. The possible unintentional comedy that will not be funny that could result from lengthening the NBA Cup is that if the league lengthens it too much then some players may start engaging in load management during the event! Maybe the NBA Cup could even have its own All-Star teams and All-Star Game so that the players have yet another opportunity to receive more cash for not playing hard!

Here is a novel concept for the NBA to consider: have an 82 game regular season as a qualifier for a four round playoff system that culminates by crowning a league champion.That is not nearly as convoluted as the new NBA All-Star Game format or the NBA Cup format, but if the players are willing to actually try then it just might work.

Labels: 2025 NBA All-Star Game, Adam Silver, David Stern

posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM

10 comments

Bucks Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Championship Game

Giannis Antetokounmpo authored a dominant triple double with game-high totals in points (26), rebounds (19), and assists (10) while leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 97-81 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game. Antetokounmpo shot 10-19 from the field, and he also accumulated three blocked shots plus two steals. Antetokounmpo earned the NBA Cup MVP award, which was based on his play throughout the NBA Cup tournament and not just in the Championship Game. Damian Lillard scored 23 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. chipped in 13 points each. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the Thunder with 21 points, but he shot just 8-24 from the field, including 2-9 from three point range. Jalen Williams scored 18 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein had 16 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and he ripped down a team-high 12 rebounds; he scored 10 first quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting, but he was quiet offensively the rest of the way.

I predicted that Antetokounmpo would dominate and that the Bucks would win. As I have repeatedly said for many years, size matters in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is a tough matchup for any team, but the small-ball Thunder are particularly ill-equipped to challenge him. His paint dominance forced the Thunder to send defensive help, which in turn created wide open three pointers that his teammates drained. Many of the headlines for game stories about this contest will probably focus on the Bucks shooting 17-40 (.425) from three point range, but to summarize Milwaukee's win that way is to miss the larger point (pun intended) that the bigger Bucks physically dominated the Thunder; the Bucks won the rebounding battle 52-43 and held the Thunder to 29-86 field goal shooting (.337), including 5-32 (.156) from three point range. However, the NBA Cup Championship Game statistics--both for individual players and for the teams--do not officially count as regular season statistics or as playoff statistics: the only tangible proof that this game happened is that ABC broadcast it, Commissioner Adam Silver handed out the championship and MVP trophies at the end, and each player on the winning team's roster received more than $500,000. 

The Thunder entered this game leading the West while boasting a historic 12.1 ppg point differential, plus league-leading averages in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed. Their defense versus the Bucks was not bad--they held the Bucks 16 points below the Bucks' scoring average--but they could not make three pointers and they would not stop taking three pointers. The way that the Thunder sputtered to just 31 second half points on 11-42 field goal shooting (.262) is exhibit A for what is wrong with the modern NBA: the sport is supposed to be basketball, not "jack up as many three pointers as possible." Yes, the Bucks deserve credit for playing excellent defense and exploiting their size advantage at both ends of the court, but in this game the Thunder outscored the Bucks in the paint 34-28. Although it is not realistic to think that the Thunder could or should have attempted a shot in the paint on every possession, their ratio of 32 three point attempts to 39 paint shot attempts was as stubborn as it was suboptimal; in the good old days, NBA teams regularly scored more than 100 points without attempting any three pointers, let alone attempting dozens of three pointers, so the notion that in order to score a lot of points it is necessary to match the other team three point shot for three point shot is foolish. Contrary to what some people will say, the Bucks did not win this game because they made more three pointers than the Thunder, nor did the Bucks win because they attempted more three pointers than the Thunder; the Bucks won this game because their size advantage overwhelmed the Thunder, and one of the consequences of that was that Bucks other than Antetokounmpo had wide open three point shot attempts.

A made three point shot is worth more than a made two point shot, but all missed shots are worth zero points. "Stat gurus" not only fail to understand that basic math, but they also ignore or minimize the reality that attacking the paint puts pressure on the opposing defense, can lead to free throw attempts, and better enables the offensive team to maintain good court balance for getting back on defense. If it were truly as simple as "Threes are worth more than twos" then of course the best strategy would be to attempt nothing but three pointers (which, sadly, is the direction in which the NBA seems to be headed), but correct basketball strategy is multidimensional. Looking at a broader view beyond this game, this is not just about how many three pointers are being attempted but also about when and how three pointers are being attempted. As mentioned above, the Bucks created high percentage, good rhythm three pointers by attacking the paint and then swinging the ball to the open man after the Thunder trapped Antetokounmpo. In contrast, after scoring 16 paint points in the first quarter to enjoy a 28-27 lead, the Thunder did not attack the paint enough. Sure, the Bucks deserve credit for using their size effectively in the paint, but the solution to that is not to settle for three pointers but rather to continue to attack the paint. It is easy for the smaller team to get frustrated and just settle for long jumpers, but that is not championship level basketball; playing small is no excuse for abandoning the paint.

Rivers said at halftime, "We have to win the three point shooting, and that's what we're doing." The Bucks opened the second half with back to back three pointers to establish their largest lead of the game up to that point, 57-50. I would argue that what mattered was not so much that the Bucks won the three point shooting, but rather how they did it: they attacked the paint as the first option, and shot open threes as the second option, which is much different than just jacking up three pointers without first probing the defense.

The Thunder are a much better team than they showed on Tuesday night, but this game showcased the difference between a seven game series and a winner take all format, and it highlighted how dangerous it is to rely on high variance three point shooting without having any backup plan.

Last year, the L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup. The Pacers seemed to get a boost from their strong NBA Cup run, and they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014, but the Lakers lost in the first round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how well this year's NBA Cup Finalists do in the tournament that really matters.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:07 AM

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NBA Cup Semifinals Recaps and NBA Cup Championship Game Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tuesday night's NBA Cup Championship Game after defeating the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets respectively yesterday in the semifinals in Las Vegas. Each player on the the team that wins the NBA Cup will receive $500,000, but the Championship Game itself is neither fish nor fowl from a statistical standpoint--the numbers do not count for the regular season or for the playoffs, which is an odd way for the NBA to treat such a supposedly important event.

The Bucks trailed the Hawks 83-82 heading into the fourth quarter, but rode Giannis Antetokounmpo's all-around greatness to victory as the two-time regular season MVP scored 10 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished for three assists, and had a sensational block of Clint Capela's dunk attempt with the Bucks clinging to a 103-98 lead with 2:35 remaining. Antetokounmpo finished with a team-high 32 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, a team-high nine assists, and a game-high (tied with Capela) four blocked shots. Antetokounmpo joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only two Milwaukee players to have 100 games with at least 30 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least .600 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo made the NBA Cup All-Tournament Team last year, and he is a lock to make it this year as well. Damian Lillard added 25 points on 8-21 field goal shooting while also contributing seven assists, six rebounds, and three steals. Trae Young poured in a game-high 35 points on 9-18 field goal shooting and 14-17 free throw shooting, and he distributed a game-high 10 assists. It is difficult to read the 14-13 Hawks: they are 2-0 against Cleveland, 2-0 against New York, 1-1 against Boston--but 0-2 against Chicago, and 0-2 against the pathetic Washington "Wheeze-hards."

The Rockets led the Thunder for most of the first half, but the Thunder's stout defense wore down the Rockets in the second half as the Thunder outscored the Rockets 70-54 to cruise to a 111-96 win. The Thunder shot 36-80 (.450) from the field while holding the Rockets to 35-96 (.365) field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 8-21 field goal shooting and 14-15 free throw shooting while also snaring eight rebounds and dishing for six assists. Isaiah Hartenstein had a strong game with 21 points and eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and Lu Dort added 19 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Other than Hartenstein, the Thunder lack size, but they are an athletic team that plays with high energy. Amen Thompson led the Rockets with 19 points off of the bench, but no other Rocket scored more than 14 points.

The 20-5 Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference, while the surging 14-11 Bucks have the sixth best record in the Eastern Conference despite starting the season 1-6. The Thunder looked like a championship contender from the start of this season, while the Bucks just now seem to be rounding into form, although their perimeter defense and their depth are still questionable. The Thunder have the statistical profile of a championship team, ranking first in defensive field goal percentage (.424), first in point differential (12.0), and first in points allowed (103.5 ppg). They also lead the league both in forcing turnovers and fewest turnovers committed, and those extra possessions help compensate for their middle of the pack 16th ranking in rebounding. Lack of size (which impacts rebounding, of course) is the main concern for the Thunder. The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games, and have moved up to sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.451), 14th in point differential (1.1), and 13th in points allowed (111.9 ppg). Lillard will always be a defensive liability, but the Bucks protect the paint well, ranking sixth in blocked shots. Rebounding is a concern: the Bucks rank just 22nd, and other than Antetokounmpo (11.5 rpg) and Bobby Portis (7.7 rpg) no Buck is averaging more than 5 rpg. 

The NBA Cup, as TNT's Kenny Smith mentioned, is more like the NCAA Tournament than the NBA playoffs; the best team generally wins the NBA championship, but in the NBA Cup a team can get hot for one game and knock out a superior team. For that reason, Smith picked the Bucks to beat the Thunder, even though he rates the Thunder as the better overall team. The Bucks are the only undefeated team (6-0) in NBA Cup games this season, and I agree with Smith's pick; specifically, I expect Antetokounmpo to dominate: in his only game versus the Thunder last season, he scored a game-high 30 points and snatched a game-high 19 rebounds in just 34 minutes as the Bucks won, 118-93. Khris Middleton, who recently returned to the lineup this season on a minutes restriction, had a triple double (11 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) in that rout, and he performed well in the Bucks' other game versus the Thunder last season (18 points, seven rebounds, six assists), but Antetotokounmpo and Lillard both did not play in that 18 point loss.

It is interesting to note that Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham led the L.A. Lakers to the inaugural NBA Cup title last season before the Lakers fired him and replaced him with J.J. Redick. The amazing thing about Redick--who has coached the Lakers to a tie for 10th-11th (out of 15 teams) in the West so far with a 13-12 record--is that, at least according to him, the Lakers have had the right game plan every single game, only to fall short because the players simply don't adhere to his wise teaching and superior basketball knowledge; the Lakers have not once been outcoached this season--just ask Redick, and he'll be happy to tell you, and there is no doubt that this message resonates well with his players, particularly coming from a coach whose prior experience consisted entirely of coaching AAU kids. There is nothing that NBA players like more than being talked down to by a coach who has never won anything at the NBA level as a player or as a coach. It would be interesting to hear Ham's candid thoughts about the Lakers, and about Redick, but Ham is too busy helping the Bucks improve to waste much time pondering the overhyped and underperforming Lakers.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Darvin Ham, Giannis Antetokounmpo, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 AM

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Atlanta and Houston Join Milwaukee and Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup Semifinals

Milwaukee and Orlando advanced to the NBA Cup semifinals on Tuesday night, and after Wednesday night's action Atlanta and Houston joined them. The Hawks silenced the Knicks 108-100 in Madison Square Garden, and then the Rockets tamed the visiting Warriors 91-90.

De'Andre Hunter scored a game-high 24 points off of the bench for the Hawks. Trae Young had 22 points despite shooting just 8-22 from the field, and he dished for a game-high 11 assists. The Hawks shot just 43-104 (.413) from the field, but they held the Knicks to 40-93 (.430) field goal shooting while winning the rebounding battle 58-49, outscoring the Knicks in the paint 66-54, and outscoring the Knicks in points off of turnovers 18-13. All five New York starters scored in double figures--led by Josh Hart's 21 points--but the Knicks' bench contributed just 14 points. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 19 points, grabbed a game-high 19 rebounds, and passed for five assists, and Mikal Bridges added 19 points, but Jalen Brunson had just 14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting, though he did pass for eight assists.

The Knicks started the season 4-5 as they battled injuries while trying to acclimate offseason acquisitions Towns and Bridges into their system, but they have posted an 11-5 record since then. Barring further injuries, there is every reason to believe that the Knicks are poised to make a deep playoff run.

The Hawks are more of a mystery. They have played well recently, but it is not clear if what they are doing is sustainable over the course of an 82 game season and through the playoffs; after all, last season the L.A. Lakers won the NBA Cup only to barely qualify for the NBA playoffs before meekly bowing out to Denver in five games in the first round. Last season, the Hawks missed the playoffs with a 36-46 record while ranking 28th in the NBA in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage; this season, the 14-12 Hawks rank 28th in points allowed and 20th in defensive field goal percentage. After starting the season 7-11, they have won seven of their last eight games, a run that began with a surprising 135-124 win versus the Cavaliers in Cleveland. I attended that game, and watched the Cavaliers take a 27-8 lead in the first seven minutes before the Hawks stormed back to tie the score at 35 by the end of the first quarter; my takeaway is that the Hawks have a lot of talent, but their shot selection is questionable and they only play defense sporadically.

In short, the Hawks are a streaky team not just from game to game, but from quarter to quarter, and they demonstrated that again on Wednesday night: they trailed the Knicks 26-14 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Knicks 34-18 in the third quarter.

I tend to not believe in low-ranked defensive teams that rely heavily on an undersized, inefficient guard, so forgive me if I do not yet jump on the Hawks' bandwagon; I acknowledge that their roster is more talented than I thought before the start of the season, but I am skeptical that they can sustain the level of play that they have maintained over the past couple of weeks.

Switching our attention to the other NBA Cup bracket, the Houston-Golden State game was dramatic because of the close finish, but it also exemplified much of what is wrong with the modern NBA; if you enjoy watching elite athletes jacking up--and missing--three pointers, then you were in basketball heaven while looking at the teams combine to shoot 18-65 (.277) from three point range. The teams launched nearly 40% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, undeterred by their misses; that is a normal NBA game now, and while it is true that the league's three point shooting percentage is a respectable .360 that does not change the reality that this style of play results in long stretches during which neither team scores very much. I previously explained the inherent flaws involved in this high variance playing style. It seems like no team is willing to buck the trend of volume three point shooting, but one gets the sense that the first team with a quality big man that decides to play "old school" ball will wax these teams that live and die with the long ball; the evidence supporting that assertion is that even after the so-called three point revolution took hold the NBA championship has still consistently been won by teams that are proficient defensively and that are able to attack the paint offensively when their three point shots are not falling.

Alperen Sengun scored a game-high 26 points for the Rockets, and he attempted just one three pointer while spearheading Houston's 58-40 points in the paint advantage. He also had a game-high 11 rebounds plus five assists. Jabari Smith Jr. added 15 points. Jonathan Kuminga led the Warriors with 20 points, while Stephen Curry had a quiet game by his lofty standards (19 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, team-high five assists). Golden State Coach Steve Kerr was incensed by a loose ball fall with 3.5 seconds remaining that gave Jalen Green the opportunity to drain what proved to be the game-winning free throws. Kerr is correct that the referees should have granted Houston a timeout instead of calling a foul, but it is difficult to muster much sympathy for a team that missed 26 three pointers and that squandered a seven point lead in the final 3:38 while missing three treys and committing two shot clock violations; one of those missed three pointers was fired up by Curry with 11.1 seconds remaining and the Warriors clinging to a 90-89 lead. Is that a high percentage play? I realize that Curry has made many such shots, but that is not the point. The high percentage play in that situation is to run the clock down as far as possible before shooting, thus giving the other team very little time to score. A three pointer is not necessary or desirable, let alone a three pointer with so much time remaining. After Curry missed, the resulting loose ball scramble took several seconds before the fateful foul was called, which means that if Curry had drained more time off of the clock then time may have run out before either team gained possession.

Viewed from a wide lens, the "exciting" finish consisted of poor clock management, bad shot selection, and then a questionable foul call. NBA action is...not as fantastic as it used to be.

Labels: Alperen Sengun, Atlanta Hawks, De' Andre Hunter, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Jalen Brunson, Karl Anthony-Towns, New York Knicks, Stephen Curry, Trae Young

posted by David Friedman @ 1:45 AM

1 comments

Milwaukee and Oklahoma City Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 in the first of four NBA Cup quarterfinal games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 37 points on 15-24 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high four blocked shots. Damian Lillard added 28 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter--and a game-high nine assists. Antetokounmpo (game-high six turnovers) and Lillard (four turnovers) had 10 of the Bucks' 16 turnovers. Bobby Portis contributed 22 points and a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench, while former All-Star Khris Middleton--who is on a minutes restriction as he recovers from offseason surgeries on both of his ankles--had eight assists, four rebounds, and three steals in 20 scoreless minutes. 

The Magic battled throughout the game--enjoying an 11 point lead early in the second quarter, and leading 107-106 with just 40.6 seconds remaining in the game--despite being without the services of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, their two best players who are both sidelined with oblique injuries. Jalen Suggs scored a career-high 32 points and had a game-high four steals, Anthony Black (17 points) and Moritz Wagner (13 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) played well off of the bench, and Goga Bitadze made his presence felt with 12 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and four assists.

On paper, this game should have been a blowout, as the Bucks feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--Antetokounmpo and Lillard--while the Magic sans Banchero do not have a single current or former All-Star, but the Magic play hard, they play unselfishly, and they play tough defense. The Bucks committed seven turnovers in the first quarter, tying their season-high for first quarter turnovers, and enabling the Magic to sprint to a 10 point first quarter lead before settling for a 33-25 advantage at the end of the first quarter. 

The Bucks eventually outlasted the outmatched Magic, but the Bucks' shaky perimeter defense makes it difficult to picture them enjoying a deep playoff run; their guards struggle to stay in front of the opposing team's guards, which forces their big men to help and thus leave the basket unattended. They could really use a tough, defensive-minded guard like Boston's Jrue Holiday--but they traded Holiday away for Damian Lillard, who is invisible defensively.

The Bucks will be a solid playoff team as long as they have a healthy Antetokounmpo doing everything, but until they recapture the defensive identity that they used to have they will not be a title contender. The scrappy young Magic are a team on the rise--not ready to win a title this season, but building good habits and gaining valuable experience.

In the second game of TNT's doubleheader (and the second NBA Cup quarterfinal game), the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 118-104. The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder by nearly 5 rpg en route to a 4-2 series win in the 2024 playoffs, but in this game the Thunder outrebounded the Mavericks 52-44 as offseason acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein ripped down a game-high 13 rebounds.  The silky smooth Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting while also compiling eight rebounds, five assists, and three steals. All five Thunder starters scored in double figures, and the Thunder bench added 29 points. Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall led the Mavericks with 19 points each, but Dallas' top two players both had off nights: Luka Doncic finished with 16 points on 5-15 field goal shooting (though he did have 11 rebounds and five assists), and Kyrie Irving had 17 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Dereck Lively II tied Hartenstein for game-high rebounding honors, but he scored just four points as the Thunder shut down Dallas' lob game at the rim without giving up anything on the perimeter. The Thunder beat the reigning Western Conference champions despite being without the services of the injured Chet Holmgren. After the game, Gilgeous-Alexander said that it was a point of emphasis to "be the aggressor" versus a team that pushed them around in previous matchups.

During the halftime show of the Oklahoma City-Dallas game, Kenny Smith observed that the Thunder make a conscious effort to "touch the paint" even on possessions that end in three point attempts, and he said that the way that the Thunder attack the paint separates them from teams that just jack up three pointers without putting pressure on the defense.

On Wednesday night, the New York Knicks will host the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors in the last two NBA Cup quarterfinal games, with the winners facing Milwaukee and Oklahoma City respectively as the NBA Cup concludes in Las Vegas with semifinal games on Saturday and the championship game next Tuesday.

The NBA's media partners are contractually obligated to hype up the NBA Cup, but the NBA's TV ratings are down this season and it is not difficult to figure out why: the product just is not as good as it used to be for a variety of reasons, including load management, tanking, and most teams playing the same analytics-driven, cookie-cutter offense focused on jacking up as many corner three pointers as possible. I am a basketball lifer, and I don't find this brand of basketball as captivating or entertaining as basketball used to be, so I can only imagine how casual fans must feel. The NBA Cup will not solve the NBA's problems, and in some ways I would argue that it makes things worse. Last year when the NBA Cup debuted, I pointed out two flaws in the format: 

There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?

The NBA does not care about these issues because the league is desperate to come up with any gimmick to induce the players to (1) stop sitting out games and (2) play hard when they are not sitting out games. Personal pride and competitive spirit are rare commodities now, so the NBA is paying $100,000 to each player on a quarterfinal winning team, with escalating prizes for the teams that advance further in the tournament. Antetokounmpo is one of the few players who still plays hard, but it was not a good look (or sound) when--in response to a question about that $100,000 payment--he laughed and said, "The rich get richer." Many Americans are struggling to put food on the table, with the average annual personal income being just $63,214, so bragging about making more in less than three hours than most people make in a year is not funny or endearing. Not to get overly political, but it sure seems like many athletes and entertainers are Democrats who complain about how much money wealthy people make and how little they pay in taxes, but I have yet to hear of an athlete or an entertainer offering to live on $63,214 per year (or even a "mere" $630,000 per year), so perhaps they should complain less about the economic system or the taxation system that benefits them so much; if they aren't giving up their own money that they receive from guaranteed contracts that don't even require them to show up to work every day then they are in no position to speak about how people who actually have to show up to work to get paid should spend their money or be taxed.

It is unfortunate that the NBA has to stoop to providing extra cash to NBA players who are already earning generational wealth in the hope that players will play hard. It has been reported that the NBA will change the 2025 All-Star Game format to a tournament featuring three eight-player All-Star teams plus the winning team from the Rising Stars Challenge playing round robin games with a 40 point target score. Presumably, the NBA will throw still more cash at the NBA All-Stars and beg the players to at least pretend to give effort. The NBA All-Star Game descended to a new low last February as the teams combined to lauch 168 three point shots while attempting just five free throws as the Eastern Conference All-Stars routed the Western Conference All-Stars, 211-186.

Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Suggs, Luka Doncic, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahama City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:11 AM

4 comments

Assessing the Lakers After the First 22 Games of the J.J. Redick Era

It is an NBA truism that after the first 20 games or so of a season you can reasonably assess how good each team is. The Lakers just played their 22nd game of the 2024-25 season, so let's take stock of the early results of the J.J. Redick era. The L.A. Lakers started last season 13-9--a .591 winning percentage--and they finished with a 47-35 record (.573) to rank eighth in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lakers are 12-10 after one of LeBron James' old teams took his current team to the woodshed tonight, as the Miami Heat waxed the Lakers, 134-93. Tyler Herro poured in a game-high 31 points and had a +30 plus/minus number as every Heat starter had a plus/minus number of at least +22. James led the Lakers with 29 points and he had a -21 plus/minus number as every Lakers starter had a plus/minus number of -20 or worse.

The Heat set a franchise single game record with 42 assists, they tied the franchise single game record with 24 three pointers, and they posted the third largest margin of victory in franchise history. The Heat shot 52-90 (.578) from the field, including 24-47 (.511) from three point range.

No NBA team should lose by 40-plus points, and that goes double for a team featuring two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting). It would be one thing if this game were an aberration, but this is the fourth time this season that the Lakers lost by at least 25 points. The 10-10 Heat are far from being a powerhouse, but the listless Lakers simply did not play hard or smart.

After last season, the Lakers fired Darvin Ham and replaced him with J.J. Redick because Redick is purported to be a basketball genius (despite the fact that he has no prior coaching experience outside of coaching his sons in youth league play). Redick is the fourth coach the Lakers have had during the seven year LeBron James era in L.A.; with James running the franchise, the Lakers have won one championship while missing the playoffs twice and losing in the first round twice. James won two of his four NBA titles during his four seasons in Miami, the only franchise that did not give him free reign to hire coaches and make personnel decisions, but he won just two NBA titles in his other 17 seasons running the show during two stints in Cleveland and his current stint in L.A.

The Lakers' best season by far with James was 2019-20, when they went 52-19 in the COVID-19 shortened season before winning the "bubble" championship. That squad ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage, and ninth in rebounding--but just 21st in three point field goal percentage. The notion that LeBron James must be surrounded by three point shooters is demonstrably false. The 2020 Lakers ranked first in field goal percentage because they ranked third in two point field goal percentage, with Dwight Howard shooting .732 from two point range, followed by JaVale McGee (.640), James (.564), and Davis (.546). James averaged 13.1 two point field goal attempts per game and 6.3 three point field goal attempts per game, while Davis led the team with 14.2 two point field goal attempts per game. Davis averaged just 3.5 three point field goal attempts per game. The 2020 Lakers averaged 56.7 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking ninth in the league.

So far this season (not including tonight's blowout loss), the Lakers rank 21st in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 27th in rebounding. Redick was supposed to provide a great advantage with his analytically driven offensive strategies, but the Lakers rank 17th in scoring, ninth in two point field goal percentage, 10th in field goal percentage, and 18th in three point field goal percentage. The Lakers average 51.9 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking 14th in the league.

In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort. 

I don't place much value on the NBA Cup, but it should be noted that Ham's Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup while Redick's Lakers failed to advance past group play in this season's NBA Cup.

It may have been a heartwarming story when Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James on Opening Night, but the harsh reality is that Bronny is probably not good enough to deserve a G League roster spot, let alone an NBA roster spot; he has averaged 5.0 ppg on .211 field goal shooting in two G League games this season. By hiring the unqualified J.J. Redick and drafting the unqualified Bronny James, the Lakers' front office sent a clear message that this season is about appeasing LeBron James and not about winning games, so it should not be surprising that the Lakers are not playing hard or smart.

There are good reasons to believe that the Lakers are worse than their record. They had a -2.6 point differential before tonight's debacle. Seven of the Lakers' 12 wins are against sub-.500 teams New Orleans, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto (twice), and Utah (twice). The Lakers only have seven games left against those teams, and they have yet to face Boston, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, or New York, teams that they will play a total of 14 times.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 11:59 PM

2 comments

Lou Carnesecca Radiated Joy and Humor During His Hall of Fame Coaching Career

Lou Carnesecca, who passed away on Saturday November 30 at the age of 99, spent his entire Hall of Fame coaching career in New York City. Carnesecca had a 526-200 record in 24 seasons as St. John's coach, leading the Johnnies to postseason play each year--including winning the 1989 NIT title and reaching the 1985 NCAA Final Four. He tried his hand at the professional level for three seasons, leading the ABA's New York Nets to a 114-138 record before returning to St. John's. 

Carnesecca was a great coach, but he knew how to put competition in proper perspective: "Victories, defeats, they'll soon be forgotten, but the relationships that you build with the people you come into contact with will last a lifetime. So, it’s important we remember that. The game is important, but it's only a small part of your life."

He downplayed his considerable role in the success that his teams consistently enjoyed: "I don't do anything. If I could coach, I would coach my guy to score a basket every time. That would be my strategy. When you're young, you think you're a genius. You think you know everything about coaching basketball. Hey, let me tell you something about basketball. I'm coaching the Nets, see. I got Rick Barry and he takes us to the ABA championship [series]. The next year, I got the same players, same plays, only I don't got Rick Barry. And we lose [54] games."

Carnesecca's coaching mentor was Joe Lapchick, who posted a 326-247 record from 1947-56 with the New York Knicks, reaching the playoffs in each of his first eight seasons before resigning midway through his ninth season. Lapchick coached St. John's from 1936-47 and 1956-65, finishing with a 334-130 record that included four NIT titles. Carnesecca worked as an assistant coach for Lapchick before succeeding him in 1965, and the successful program built by Lapchick did not miss a beat.

Like many college coaches before and after him, Carnesecca followed the siren call--and the money--of pro basketball, jumping to the Nets in 1970. Carnesecca, who believed that pro teams should not draft college players who still had eligibility, refused to sign Julius Erving when Erving was an underclassman at the University of Massachusetts, and he then coached against Erving when the Nets defeated Erving's Virginia Squires 4-3 in the 1972 Eastern Division Finals. Rookie Erving averaged 30.7 ppg and 21.0 rpg in that series, prompting Carnesecca to say of Erving, "He's the most exciting pro ever. He creates. It just flows out of him. He has great imagination on the court. You can talk about this guy like a poet. He's a poet, an artist."

Carnesecca will forever be associated with the Big East Conference, which is an interesting historical twist considering that he opposed the conference's creation because he thought that it would force St. John's to tread a tougher path to the NCAA Tournament. The three-time Big East Coach of the Year (1983, 1985-86) led St. John's to five Big East regular season titles (1980, 1983, 1985-86, 1992). The Big East was arguably the toughest conference in the country in the mid-1980s, and Carnesecca more than held his own while competing against Hall of Fame coaches leading teams stacked with Hall of Fame players.

If you followed basketball at any time from the 1960s through the 1990s, you will never forget Carnesecca's demonstrative sideline demeanor, his garish sweaters, and how consistently good his teams were. He was a colorful character, but his charisma should not obscure the fact that he was a highly successful coach for a long time.

Labels: Big East, Joe Lapchick, Julius Erving, Lou Carnesecca, New York Nets, Rick Barry, St. John's

posted by David Friedman @ 10:46 PM

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Things We Learned from the Celtics' 120-117 Win Versus the Cavaliers

The Boston Celtics built a 21 point lead, withstood a 34-15 run over a seven minute span in the third quarter, and defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 120-117 in Boston to end Cleveland's season-opening 15 game winning streak. The 15-1 Cavaliers still have the best record in the NBA, 2.5 games ahead of the 12-3 Celtics. It must be emphasized that the Celtics won this game without the services of Kristaps Porzingis, their starting center (and a 2018 All-Star) who has yet to play this season due to a lower left leg injury. Assuming that Porzingis makes a full recovery, adding him to the lineup bolsters the Celtics at both ends of the court because of his rebounding, shot blocking/rim protection, and range shooting.

Jayson Tatum had a masterful all-around game with a team-high 33 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, and seven assists. Al Horford added 20 points and seven rebounds, Derrick White contributed 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and Jaylen Brown chipped in 17 points and a game-high eight assists. 

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points, Evan Mobley had 22 points and a team-high tying 11 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen scored 10 points while matching Mobley with 11 rebounds. Darius Garland dished for a team-high seven assists but he scored just eight points on 3-21 field goal shooting. 

At the end of the 82 game regular season, each game counts the same in the standings, but anyone who follows the NBA knows that some games have a different feel not only for ardent fans but also for the players. "Statement game" is a cliche, but this was without question a measuring stick game for the Cavaliers to see how they stack up with the NBA champion Boston Celtics. Casual fans often call the NBA a fourth quarter league, but the fact is that the NBA is in many respects a first quarter league, because the first quarter sets the tone in terms of matchups, physicality, and general readiness to play. The Celtics jumped out to an 18-8 lead by the 5:36 mark of the first quarter, and they never trailed the rest of the way. 

The Celtics shot 14-22 (.636) from three point range in the first half, their best three point shooting half in the past 25 years. That level of three point shooting is aberrational and unsustainable, and they shot 8-19 (.421) from beyond the arc in the second half to finish at 22-41 (.537) overall. 

The easy hot take is that the Celtics beat the Cavaliers because of their tremendous three point shooting, and that the Celtics have a great chance to win the 2025 championship because they rank first in three point field goals made and first in three point field goals attempted. High volume three point shooting is lauded by "stat gurus" as the most efficient offensive strategy, but the reality is that it is a high variance strategy, as I explained four years ago:

Offensive efficiency is not all that matters when trying to construct a championship team: the three point shot produces much more variance statistically than shots taken closer to the basket, meaning that a team that shoots .380 from three point range may shoot .250 from three point range in one game and then .510 from three point range the next game. If a team shoots a high volume of three pointers then it will almost certainly lose when shooting .250 from three point range, but that team is not assured of victory even when shooting .510 from three point range: a team that relies too heavily on three point shooting does not have a backup plan to use when those shots are not falling, but that team's opponents may be able to overcome giving up .510 three point shooting by forcing turnovers, winning the rebound battle, and attacking the paint for high percentage shots.

Last season, the Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. In the article cited above, I debunked the notion that high volume three point shooting defined the success of the Golden State Warriors, the team that is most closely associated with the NBA's three point revolution in the past decade or so:

There is a false narrative that the Golden State Warriors proved that a three point shooting team can win an NBA title. The Warriors proved nothing of the sort. From 2015-2019, the Warriors ranked first, third, first, third, and third in defensive field goal percentage; not only did they have a backup plan if they suffered from cold three point shooting: they had a primary plan, namely make it very difficult for their opponents to score. Also, the Warriors did not become a championship dynasty until they added Kevin Durant, who added deadly midrange scoring (and, to be sure, another three point shooter) to the three point marksmanship provided by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

I wrote that article in 2020, so it is worth adding that the 2022 Golden State Warriors--who beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals--ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and seventh in rebounding. 

"Stat gurus" often tout themselves as emotionally detached objective analysts, but in fact they speak and behave as if they are members of a cult that propagates rigid tenets regardless of what the factual evidence shows (this is part of a larger societal trend of "experts" who insist that their deeply held beliefs are correct even if those beliefs defy not only common sense but also the facts). This season's Celtics have dropped to 12th in points allowed, 20th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in rebounding. The difference between the Celtics and many of the other teams that have low rankings in those categories is that the Celtics proved last season that they have the necessary personnel to rebound and defend at a high level; that being said, they must get to work in those areas, because they are unlikely to repeat as champions unless they reestablish their defensive identity and their paint presence at both ends of the court. In that regard, it is interesting to note that the Cavaliers outscored the Celtics in the paint 60-36. If Garland had performed anywhere close to his usual standard, then the Cavaliers would have won even with the Celtics shooting an outlandish three point percentage.

The Celtics shot 18-35 (.514) in the paint, which demonstrates two things: (1) when the Celtics attacked the paint they were efficient, and (2) the Celtics should attack the paint more often instead of relying so heavily on high variance three point shooting. The 2025 championship recipe for the Celtics is (1) attack the paint more often than they are doing now, (2) shore up their leaky defense, and (3) utilize the three point shot effectively based on time/score/overall game situation as opposed to seeking to attempt at least 50 three pointers a game (a stated goal of Coach Joe Mazzulla, who has done a wonderful job overall but who seems a little bit too obsessed with three point shot attempts as an indicator of offensive efficiency).

We are already nearly 20% through the 2024-25 NBA regular season, so it is not too early to at least make preliminary assessments of teams and players. Here is something to clip and save: the 11-4 Oklahoma City Thunder currently rank first in defensive field goal percentage and second in points allowed, but just 23rd in rebounding. Will the Thunder's stout defense be enough to make up for their lack of size and their weakness on the glass? The Cavaliers are similarly weak in rebounding (24th) and they are not in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage (12th) or points allowed (13th). We will know more about these teams after they have played a larger sample size of games, but these rankings and trends bear watching, because at this point neither the Cavaliers nor the Celtics are defending or rebounding at a championship level. By the way, the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are flying underneath the radar with an 8-7 record but they rank fifth in points allowed, sixth in defensive field goal percentage, and 11th in rebounding, numbers that suggest they will finish higher in the standings than they are right now.

The above analysis should not be taken to diminish the value of Boston's win over Cleveland. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already proven that they can lead the Celtics to victory against elite teams in a playoff series: their Celtics have won two Eastern Conference Finals (2022, 2024) and one NBA championship (2024). The Celtics demonstrated that they can defend and rebound at an elite level. In contrast, this version of the Cavaliers has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs, and must prove that they are capable of beating elite teams in a playoff series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

3 comments