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Monday, February 16, 2026

The 2026 Legends Brunch Honors Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Candace Parker, Baron Davis, and Jamal Crawford While Featuring a Panel Discussion With Olympians Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, and Pau Gasol

The Legends Brunch is the highlight of NBA All-Star Weekend, a celebration of the great players who built the NBA from a fledgling league into a global enterprise. I cherished covering the Legends Brunch in person from 2005-2010, and every year that was my favorite All-Star Weekend event, along with attending the ABA Reunions in 2005 and 2006.

NBC is covering the NBA this season for the first time since 2002, so for the first time in more than two decades TNT's Ernie Johnson was not the host for the Legends Brunch telecast. Bob Costas, who served as NBC's main NBA host the last time that the network had an NBA contract, hosted the 2026 Legends Brunch. His communication style is different than Johnson's--Costas did not lead things off with a poem he wrote--but Costas is every bit as informed and talented as Johnson is.

Costas began the telecast by providing a brief recap of NBA All-Star Saturday Night, and then he introduced NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. Silver acknowledged the presence of the family members of Chuck Cooper (the first Black player drafted by an NBA team), Earl Lloyd (the first Black player to play in an NBA game), and Nat "Sweetwater" Clifton (the first Black player to sign an NBA contract). Then, he presented the Lifetime Achievement Award to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Abdul-Jabbar said that he is "deeply humbled, filled with gratitude for a league that gave me far more than a career. It gave me a home, a purpose, and a family." Abdul-Jabbar thanked all of his coaches and teammates collectively, but he singled out one coach by name: Farrell Hopkins, who he credited with impressing upon him the importance of being able to score effectively. Abdul-Jabbar took that advice to heart, eventually breaking Wilt Chamberlain's NBA career scoring record in 1984 and then holding the mark until LeBron James surpassed him in 2023. Abdul-Jabbar expressed gratitude that the NBA provided "a platform to stand for something larger than myself," namely social justice and community service. He emphasized the importance of what an athlete does beyond the basketball court: "Greatness is not measured in points only or in wins, but in the impact we leave behind."

Magic Johnson presented the Pioneer Award to Candace Parker, the only WNBA player to win championships with three different teams and the only WNBA player to win the Rookie of the Year award and the regular season MVP in the same season. Parker stated that she has been inspired by NBA legends, singling out Magic Johnson and Julius Erving in particular. She also noted the strong influence that her college coach, Pat Summit, had on her.

The Legends Brunch included a special tribute to the three pioneers mentioned above: Chuck Cooper, Earl Lloyd, and Nat "Sweetwater" Clifton. This is part of the NBA's season-long recognition of how Cooper, Lloyd, and Clifton played key roles in integrating the league.

Andre Iguodala, the President of the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA), spoke on a host of topics. He mentioned Chris Paul--who recently retired after being released by the L.A. Clippers--and said that Paul has a special ability to "lock in" to competition while also being able to "lock through" as a connector bringing people together. Iguodala recalled that when Paul was a rival player he did not like him very much, but that after serving as an NBPA Vice President while Paul was the NBPA President he saw firsthand how much Paul did on behalf of NBA players. Iguodala praised Abdul-Jabbar for speaking to him 15 years ago about the value of keeping up with the times to learn to speak the language of young people. Abdul-Jabbar advised Iguodala to do things like watching reality TV shows to better understand how young people think and how they communicate.

Antonio Davis, the President of the National Basketball Retired Players Association (NBRPA or Legends of Basketball), spoke about the NBRPA's mandate to help Legends live with dignity and wellness so that they can prosper and can continue to make positive contributions to their communities.

The Bob Lanier Community Impact Award was first presented to Pau Gasol in 2023, and then Jalen Rose earned the honor in 2024. The award was not presented at the 2025 Legends Brunch, but it is important to keep Lanier's name alive, and to recognize players who have a positive community impact. Gasol presented this award to Baron Davis and Jamal Crawford. Davis spoke about his efforts to bridge the gap between the "privileged" and the "underprivileged." He said that he learned the importance of community while he grew up in the L.A. area. Crawford declared, "This honor truly means a lot to me. I feel so blessed because this isn't something you seek recognition for. You do what feels right to uplift as many people as possible, especially those who need it most." He thanked his grandparents, parents, sisters, and community members who inspired him. He lives by the motto, "If you can help someone, do it." Crawford added, "Giving back is not about recognition. It's about responsibility." He thanked Abdul-Jabbar and Erving for providing inspiration to him when he was a child--and even today. Crawford said that the sport's legends are the most important part of the game. 

After Crawford finished speaking, Costas mentioned the new documentary "Soul Power," produced by Julius Erving, George Karl, and Common. The four part series on Amazon Prime tells the story of the ABA. Costas noted the tremendous impact that the ABA had on basketball history--and on the way basketball is played today--with innovations such as the three point shot (which was not invented by the ABA but was popularized by the league), the Slam Dunk Contest, and a wide open style of play. Many Hall of Famers started their careers in the ABA, including four-time MVP/three-time champion Julius Ervingthree-time MVP/one-time champion Moses Malonetwo-time MVP/three-time champion Mel Danielsone-time MVP/one-time champion Artis Gilmoreone-time MVP/two-time champion George McGinnis, three-time champion Roger Brownfour-time scoring champion George GervinDavid Thompson, Bobby Jones, and Louie Dampier. Costas declared, "No one personified the league more than Dr. J, one of the greatest players in the history of basketball and the greatest player in the history of the ABA."

The Legends Brunch concluded with a panel discussion moderated by Costas featuring Olympians Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, and Pau Gasol.

Robertson recalled Team USA's tryout process for the 1960 Olympics, which involved eight teams competing in Denver. The AAU was very powerful at that time, and tried to get as many of their players as possible on the Olympic team. Costas asked Robertson if the 1960 squad was the greatest U.S. team ever other than the fabled 1992 Dream Team. Robertson acknowledged his team's greatness but also felt that the 1956 squad led by Bill Russell should be considered.

Robertson wore a knee brace, but Costas pointed out that Robertson looks much younger than 87. Robertson explained that he is wearing the brace because old men sometimes do "foolish" things; he strained his leg trying to see how much weight he could lift over his head.

Magic Johnson said that a key moment for the 1992 Dream Team happened when Michael Jordan rejected the honor of being the only captain and insisted that Larry Bird and Magic Johnson should be co-captains with him. Johnson said that this forged team unity. He remembered that the Dream Team's scrimmages were often Eastern Conference players competing against Western Conference players, and he said that those now-legendary battles were very intense.

Johnson praised Robertson not only as a great player but also as the first player who became a "businessman outside of basketball," along with Dave Bing.

The always gracious Gasol praised Robertson, Johnson, and the other legends who came before him for paving the way for him to become an NBA player. He was 12 years old when the Dream Team won Olympic gold in his hometown Barcelona. Gasol talked about how his L.A. Laker teammate Kobe Bryant ran right through him on a screen when Team USA faced Spain in the 2008 Olympics. Gasol said that play set the tone for Team USA to do whatever it takes to win the gold medal after falling short several times in previous FIBA events when Bryant was not on the roster. Gasol recalled that Bryant later put his Olympic gold medal in Gasol's L.A. locker to send a message, noting that Bryant was very "intentional" about making sure that they were on the same page about winning an NBA championship. Gasol had an 0-3 career playoff series record before teaming up with Bryant, who led the Lakers to NBA championships in 2009 and 2010 with Gasol as the second option. If Gasol had continued to be aggressive and not been satisfied with winning two NBA championships, perhaps the Lakers would have won at least one more title.

One of Johnson's most vivid Olympic memories is how Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen made a point of taking turns guarding Toni Kukoc--their future Chicago Bulls teammate--full court when Team USA faced Croatia in the 1992 Olympics.

Johnson singled out Erving for helping him when he was weighing the pros and cons of leaving Michigan State as an underclassman. After Johnson sought Erving's advice, Erving not only counseled him but he flew Johnson to Philadelphia to stay with him for a few days to discuss matters in detail. Johnson said that this was an important time not just in his career but in his life, and he praised Erving for being such a great mentor. That story epitomizes not only how special Erving is, but also the impact that basketball's legends can have (1) when their counsel is sought and (2) when young players have the humility to realize that they don't know everything and that they can benefit from the experiences of the great players who came before them.

Selected Previous NBA Legends Recaps:

The 2025 NBA Legends Brunch Honors Oscar Robertson, Gary Payton, and Rick Barry, and Features a Panel Discussion With Run TMC (2025) 

The 2024 NBA Legends Brunch Honors Tamika Catchings, Jalen Rose, Reggie Miller, and Larry Bird While Also Featuring ABA Panel Discussion (2024)

NBA Legends Brunch Honors Bill Russell, Karl Malone, John Stockton, and Pau Gasol (2023)

Jerry West Gives Powerful Speech After Being Honored as NBA Legend of the Year (2022)

Legends Brunch Honors Alonzo Mourning, Five Great Mavs (2010)

NBA Legends Brunch Honors Phoenix' Rich Basketball History (2009)

King James Reigns in Houston (2006 NBA All-Star Weekend) 

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:30 AM

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Balanced Lakers Blast Clippers, 117-79

Six Lakers scored in double figures and all 12 players contributed at least four points in a 117-79 rout of the L.A. Clippers. Kobe Bryant led the way for the Lakers with 16 points. He also had eight rebounds, three assists and two steals but it was hardly a vintage performance for the 2008 MVP considering his 5-12 field goal shooting and game-high five turnovers. Pau Gasol authored a nice all around effort (13 points, nine rebounds, six assists), while point guards Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar each scored 15 points. Al Thornton led the Clippers with 16 points. Baron Davis had 11 points, seven assists and four turnovers while shooting 4-13 from the field in his Clipper debut; he had a strong first quarter but was largely invisible the rest of the way.

The Lakers only led 30-27 after the first 12 minutes, in part because of the easy transition baskets that the Clippers scored after Bryant's four turnovers. As Hubie Brown said of Bryant's miscues, "That is a rare stat." At halftime, Bryant gave this explanation to Heather Cox: "I had to adjust to the little guys stripping (the ball) down low. I was angry at myself in the first quarter; I know that about this team." Apparently, Bryant made the necessary adjustment because he only had one turnover after the first quarter. Much like he did in Tuesday's season opener versus Portland, Bryant spent most of the game focusing on rebounding, pushing the ball and getting his teammates involved. On Tuesday, the Lakers needed Bryant to provide a key third quarter scoring outburst but against the Clippers such heroics were not required. In fact, Bryant sat out the entire fourth quarter and in the final 12 minutes the game often looked like a contest between the Harlem Globetrotters and the Washington Generals as the Lakers delivered several fancy passes and on one occasion the crowd giggled as Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza passed the ball back and forth on the perimeter in the halfcourt set but no Clipper made any attempt to guard either of them (Odom eventually eschewed the open jumper to drive to the hoop).

I don't think that the Clippers are quite as bad as they looked; they will play better once Marcus Camby returns and their various new players (including Davis) become acclimated to Coach Mike Dunleavy's system. However, even though this season is only two games old it is worth wondering just how good the Lakers really are. We won't know the answer until the Lakers face some better teams and deal with the adversity of an extended road trip but they are playing with a lot of energy and intensity, particularly on defense. Their bench is receiving a lot of credit and while that praise is certainly deserved it is important to recognize exactly how Coach Phil Jackson is setting up his rotations: until garbage time begins, the bench players are not left on their own--at least one starter is on the court with them, much like Jackson used to use Scottie Pippen to anchor the Bulls' reserves during their title runs (the Lakers don't have a player who is equivalent to Pippen but Jackson is applying the principle of using a starter to anchor the bench). Hubie Brown noted that as much as possible Jackson keeps two of his three top big men (Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom) on the court together at all times. As I have mentioned, that trio will likely never play together but Brown is correct that by rotating them in and out the Lakers constantly have a formidable inside duo: when Bynum is at center either Gasol or Odom can play power forward and when Bynum is on the bench Gasol can shift to center with Odom playing power forward.

The extensive garbage time provided ample opportunity for Brown to offer his thoughts on a wide range of subjects. Here is his take on Bryant's impact on the U.S. Olympic team's gold medal performance: "His hard work rubbed off on a lot of people. That was the number one thing...Then, let's face it, in the last eight minutes of the game against Spain for the championship that's when Kobe Bryant steps up and gets it done for you."

Although I will be participating again in the Blogger MVP rankings that will first appear in a couple weeks, I really think that you can't get a good bead on who truly deserves the MVP until the season is at least half over and most of the teams have taken a full tour around the league (that is also why it is silly for college football to publish a top 25 list so early but that is a different story to be discussed at a different time). However, I will be very interested to see what verdict the official MVP voters come up with at the end of the season if the Lakers win 60 or more games but Bryant's scoring average dips to the low 20s. When Bryant won back to back scoring titles he was widely acknowledged to be the league's best individual player but he was not voted the MVP because his team did not win 50-plus games; if Bryant leads the Lakers to the best record in the NBA but his individual numbers decline as he sits out during fourth quarter blowouts will the voters apply the same criteria that they used against him in 2006 and 2007 or will a new standard be invented? My methodology will not change: I have consistently said that the MVP should go to the league's best and most complete all-around player, with the only exception being when there is a post player who is so dominant that his value overcomes the relative narrowness of his skill set; in other words, I would have voted Shaquille O'Neal as the 2005 MVP due to his inside dominance even though he did not have the most complete skill set.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:22 AM

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Thursday, August 21, 2008

What it Takes to Make it to the NBA Finals

A couple months ago, ESPN The Magazine ran a fascinating article about what it takes to get to the NBA Finals. Guest writer Baron Davis interviewed fellow All-Star guards Kobe Bryant, Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker. Bryant, of course, teamed with Shaquille O'Neal to lead the Lakers to three straight NBA championships from 2000-02. O'Neal and Bryant's Lakers also made it to the 2004 Finals, where they lost to the Detroit Pistons as Billups won the Finals MVP. This year Bryant, sans O'Neal, guided the Lakers back to the Finals, where they lost in six games to the Boston Celtics. Parker has won three championships as a San Antonio Spur (2003, 2005, 2007) and he was selected as the 2007 Finals MVP.

Davis noted, “I know what it's like to make big shots and to win a playoff series or two. I've reshaped my game to make a good team into a scary one." Davis said to Bryant, "I've only been to the conference semis. How do I get further?” Bryant answered, "Execution. You have to focus on Xs and Os, on how you want to take your opponent apart. That's what it's about. It's not about the crowd being loud or how many towels they wave." Bryant added, “The trick is to get everybody playing together, trying to accomplish the same goal. If you have the talent and the sacrifice on top of that, you have a championship caliber team. One player can only do so much. If you haven't gotten to the next level, you haven't figured out how to get everybody on the same page.”

Bryant drew a distinction between the mindset of the three championship teams he played on with O'Neal and the 2008 Lakers team that made it to the Finals: “I'd never been on a winning team that got along (prior to 2008). When I was young, I was like, ‘Take it or leave it. Train's gotta keep moving.’ If you want to win a championship, if you're slacking, I'm going to let you know. And that went from Shaq down to Rick Fox. But when you have that togetherness, you don't get into finger-pointing. If a guy makes a mistake, loses a game, everyone plays the next game to redeem him. That attitude was critical to our getting the number one seed this year.”

So much has been said and written about the “Shaq-Kobe Feud” but what it always boiled down to at its core was a basic and fundamental difference between Shaq and Kobe's basketball philosophies: Kobe is a gym rat, a work out fiend and a perfectionist, while Shaq is someone who always has to be pushed to give maximum effort, particularly when it comes to staying in shape and playing defense. It was natural and inevitable that Shaq and Kobe would clash as teammates. Throw in the huge age difference plus Shaq's craving for recognition combined with Kobe's desire to prove his greatness and a clash was inevitable. Previous great NBA duos--Jordan/Pippen, Magic/Kareem, Bird/McHale, Erving/Malone and on down the line--featured players whose skill sets and personalities complemented each other. Shaq and Kobe's skill sets complemented each other very well--a dominant inside player paired with a dynamic perimeter player--but their mental and philosophical approaches to the game are completely different.

Billups' advice to Davis is exactly what one might expect from a player whose Pistons have several All-Stars but no superstar: “Everybody has all the cliches. You have to sacrifice. You have to be on the same page. But they're all true. When you're on a team that isn't championship-caliber, nobody looks around and says, 'You've got the better matchup tonight. Let's ride that.' You can't care about who's going to be on SportsCenter's top plays, who's going to be in ESPN The Magazine, who's making the All-Star team. When you win, everyone gets the glory.” Davis asked Billups, ‘What's you recipe for winning it all?’ Billups replied, “One of the main things is--and I may be biased--great guard play. A great center is a plus, but it doesn't matter who your center is if your guards can't get the ball to him.”

Billups also told Davis that the game is not decided in the first half but that what happens in the early minutes sets the tone for the rest of the game. It irritates me when people say that you only have to watch the last two minutes of an NBA game, because that kind of thinking disregards the fact that what happened in the first 46 minutes great impacts the strategy, tactics and execution of the closing minutes. A basketball game unfolds in stages, much like a chess game has an opening, a middlegame and an endgame--and any strong chess player understands that each stage of a chess game flows directly into the next stage, because the deployment of forces and the exchanges that are made or not made provide the template for what will happen. Similarly, how a basketball team runs its offensive sets and how it defends against the other team's offensive sets in the first three quarters influences the decisions that are made in the fourth quarter. Billups provided an example of this to Davis, citing a key factor in Detroit's victory over the Lakers in the 2004 Finals: “The Lakers' weakness was pick and roll defense, so we were going to make them stop that. It didn't matter who was guarding me; my job was to pick and roll Shaq. Every series has its own version of that. And if we have to run it every time, we run it every time.” Someone who only watches the last two minutes of an NBA game misses the chess match between the coaches and players as the teams utilize different personnel combinations and strategies to try to exploit their strengths and minimize their weaknesses.

What is fascinating about Parker is that he successfully made the transition from being a European basketball prodigy to being one of the top point guards in the NBA; Parker started playing pro basketball at the minor league level in France at the age of 15 and by the time he was 17 he was playing for Paris Basket Racing, one of France's top professional teams. Parker had just turned 19 when the Spurs drafted him in 2001 but he made the All-Rookie First Team in 2001-02 and has been steadily improving ever since that time.

For Parker, his journey to becoming a Finals MVP was all about developing toughness, prodded by hard nosed San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich: “My first three years, sometimes he was so hard on me he made me cry,” Parker told Davis. “It seemed like I could never do enough for him. But when I was Finals MVP, his eyes were watering, and mine, too. That's why it gives me goose bumps anytime I see anyone win a championship. I know how it feels to work hard all year just so you can hold that trophy at the end.”

Each Finals trip was different for Parker: “My first Finals, everything went so fast, I didn't realize what I was doing and what I was part of. I enjoyed the second time more, but the third is when I saw everything in slow motion. Everything was so easy.” Davis asked Parker, “Were you ready for the Finals the first time?” Parker candidly admitted, “No, I didn't realize how hard it was. I see that now but the reason I played so well last season (in the 2007 Finals) is that I had the experience of the first two trips.”

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:42 PM

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Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Brand New Day for the Sixers, Same Old Same Old for the Clippers

Now you know why I don't write lengthy articles to analyze "proposed trades" or "proposed free agent signings" five seconds after a "breaking news" banner scrolls across the crawl on ESPN: "proposed" means that nothing has officially happened yet and therefore something else could very well take place. I don't know how much bandwidth, air time and newsprint have been wasted in the past week or so "analyzing" the "new look" Clippers featuring Baron Davis and Elton Brand but the current "breaking news" is that Brand is going to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers, who just shipped Rodney Carney and Calvin Booth to Minnesota in order to create enough salary cap room to offer Brand a five year, $82 million deal that he reportedly has accepted.

After reports surfaced last week that Davis was leaving the Warriors to sign with the Clippers, I wrote a six paragraph post about the proposed deal and devoted exactly one paragraph to the possibility of Brand and Davis playing together in L.A., concluding, "Their potential starting lineup of Chris Kaman, Brand, second year forward Al Thornton--a beast in training--Davis and Cuttino Mobley is quite potent. The main questions for the Clippers are their health, their dedication at the defensive end of the court and the lack of depth on their bench. Still, on paper this looks like a team that could certainly be in the Western Conference playoff mix if those three concerns are properly addressed." Although Brand initially gave indications that he was willing to accept less money to stay in L.A. if the Clippers upgraded their roster he apparently decided upon further reflection that moving to the Eastern Conference has several benefits, including being closer to his home town of Peekskill, New York, a seemingly easier path to the NBA Finals and the supposedly greater opportunity to make the All-Star team (the latter speculation is courtesy of ESPN's Ric Bucher). Of course, the only thing that is really guaranteed for Brand (besides the money) is moving closer to home, because beating Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and/or Orlando in a seven game series will not be easy for the 76ers and LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are virtually guaranteed to be the starting forwards for the Eastern All-Stars (barring injury). In the wake of his Finals MVP performance I expect six-time All-Star Paul Pierce to be selected as an All-Star once again, so that leaves Brand battling with Chris Bosh, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Rasheed Wallace and Shawn Marion for the remaining forward spots.

If he remains healthy, Brand certainly fills the 76ers' glaring need for an effective low post scorer, a deficiency that became painfully--and fatally--obvious during last season's playoffs when they pushed the Pistons to six games but simply could not score enough points in the half court set to keep pace when the Pistons slowed the tempo down and limited their turnovers. The Sixers have several young, talented players plus a very underrated point guard/floor leader in Andre Miller. However, it does not take a basketball mastermind to figure out that unless the Sixers also improve their outside shooting that teams will be able to feed Brand a steady diet of double teams without worrying about getting burned. Still, this is no doubt a major coup for Philadelphia and a major blow to the Clippers, who most likely will be trading tales of misery with the Warriors during next year's Draft Lottery. If Davis stays healthy then this season will be a good opportunity for him to prove that he truly is an elite point guard, because the Clippers will need an All-NBA caliber season from him to have any chance of making the playoffs in the West. The Warriors have enough talent left to contend for a playoff spot--and they will apparently be adding Corey Maggette to the mix as well--but with Portland on the rise and last year's eight West playoff teams looking strong Golden State will probably miss the cut for the second year in a row.

If there is such a thing as karma then what did Clippers' fans do in their previous lives to deserve the ACL tears, ruptured Achilles tendons and assorted other injuries, mishaps and boneheaded moves that they have suffered through in the past 25 years or so?

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:19 AM

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Friday, July 04, 2008

Where Do Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis Rank Among Elite NBA Point Guards?

Baron Davis led the Golden State Warriors to one playoff appearance in three seasons and he has been injury-prone for most of his career, so the Warriors understandably declined to offer him a long term contract extension--but they inexplicably are reportedly willing to pay more than $100 million to pry Gilbert Arenas away from the Washington Wizards. Fortunately for Golden State fans, the Warriors apparently will not have a chance to overpay Arenas because the Wizards and Arenas have reached a verbal agreement for $111 million over six years (contracts cannot be signed until July 9 when the precise amount of next season's salary cap is calculated). If that deal goes through it will be the sixth largest NBA contract signed since the implementation of the 1999 Collective Bargaining Agreement. While the L.A. Lakers--who signed Kobe Bryant for $136.4 million in 2004--and the San Antonio Spurs--who signed Tim Duncan for $122 million in 2003--are undoubtedly pleased with the return they have received on their sizable investments, the Indiana Pacers (Jermaine O'Neal, $126.6 million in 2003) and Sacramento Kings (Chris Webber, $122.7 million in 2001) surely have experienced serious buyers' remorse. It remains to be seen what the Orlando Magic will think of the $126 million investment they made in Rashard Lewis in 2007 but that seems to be an awfully steep price for a player who has made one All-Star appearance in 10 NBA seasons.

Arenas missed 69 games due to injury last season, was a shell of his former self during the playoffs and missed the entire 2007 postseason due to injury. He has led the Wizards past the first round of the playoffs once in five seasons. The word "elite" is poorly defined in reference to NBA players and it is thrown around far too casually. Bottom line: if you are not on one of the three All-NBA Teams--or a player who deserved to be there but clearly got snubbed--then you are not an elite player. An All-Star is not an elite player; every year there are 24 All-Stars plus another 5-10 players who could just as easily have made the cut. An elite player must be no worse than one of the top five players at his position and one of the top 15 players in the NBA. Even when fully healthy, Davis and Arenas operate at the fringes of elite territory: Arenas made the All-NBA Second Team in 2007 and the All-NBA Third Team in 2005 and 2006, while Davis made the All-NBA Third Team in 2004. Of course, the most relevant issue is the likelihood that they will be elite players in the future. Let's compare Arenas and Davis to the truly elite NBA point guards.

1) Chris Paul is the gold standard for current NBA point guards. He scores, passes, rebounds and defends. His main weakness is that because he is only 6-0, 175 he can be posted up by bigger point guards and in certain situations he can be taken advantage of defensively when switching pick and roll plays. His shooting touch was a bit suspect prior to this season but Paul largely put those concerns to rest by putting up career high numbers in field goal percentage (.488), three point field goal percentage (.369) and free throw percentage (.851); however, in the playoffs he shot poorly from three point range (.238).

Key 2007-08 numbers: 21.1 ppg, 11.6 apg (first in the NBA), 4.0 rpg, 2.7 spg (first in the NBA), .488 FG%, .369 3FG%, .851 FT% in the regular season; 24.1 ppg, 11.3 apg, 4.9 rpg, 2.3 spg, .502 FG%, .238 3FG%, .785 FT% in the playoffs while leading Hornets to the second round.

Finished second in MVP voting, made the All-NBA First Team.

2) Steve Nash won the 2005 and 2006 MVPs. It should be obvious that he was not in fact the best all-around player in the NBA during those seasons but it is equally obvious that he was the best point guard in the league during that time and that is all that is relevant in this discussion. Nash finished second to Dirk Nowitzki in the 2007 MVP voting but was still the best point guard in the NBA. Last season, Paul ended Nash's three year reign as the assist champion and Paul also took the crown as the best point guard. Nash is the best pure shooter among NBA point guards and he is a tremendous passer, particularly in pick and roll situations. Nash is a poor one on one defender and his weakness in that area has really hurt Phoenix during the playoffs.

Key 2007-08 numbers: 16.9 ppg, 11.1 apg (second in the NBA), 3.5 rpg, .7 spg, .504 FG%, .470 3FG% (second in the NBA), .906 FT% (fifth in the NBA) in the regular season; 16.2 ppg, 7.8 apg, 2.8 rpg, .4 spg, .457 FG%, .300 3FG%, .917 FT% in the playoffs during a 4-1 first round loss.

Finished ninth in MVP voting, made the All-NBA Second Team.

3) Deron Williams will likely be battling with Paul for many years to earn recognition as the NBA's best point guard. The 6-3, 210 Williams is significantly bigger and more physically powerful than Paul but he is not as explosively quick and is a surprisingly poor rebounder considering his size and strength. I'd give Nash a slight edge over Williams in 2008 based on Nash's shooting prowess and his greater amount of experience but I expect Williams to be the superior player starting next season.

Key 2007-08 numbers: 18.8 ppg, 10.5 apg (third in the NBA), 3.0 rpg, 1.1 spg, .507 FG%, .395 3FG%, .803 FT% in the regular season; 21.6 ppg, 10.0 apg, 3.6 rpg, .6 spg, .492 FG%, .500 3FG%, .773 FT% in the playoffs while leading the Jazz to the second round.

Finished 12th in the MVP voting, made the All-NBA Second Team.

4) Tony Parker has yet to make the All-NBA Team even once but he is worthy of being considered an elite point guard in light of his 2007 Finals MVP performance and the fact that he has been a vital contributor to three championship teams as the starting point guard. Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili divide the scoring load pretty evenly and Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich limits their regular season minutes to preserve them for the playoffs, which means that none of the Spurs' "Big Three" put up huge regular season statistics. Parker is not as good of a pure shooter as Paul, Nash or Williams, nor is Parker quite as adept as those guys in terms of playmaking, but Parker's blazing quickness and ability to finish strongly at the rim make him very difficult to contain. Parker has wisely slashed his three point attempts from a career-high 243 in 2002-03 (his second season) to 36, 38 and 66 the past three seasons. Nash had better regular season numbers than Parker but Parker completely outplayed Nash in the Spurs' win over the Suns in the first round.

Key 2007-08 numbers: 18.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.2 rpg, .8 spg, .494 FG%, .258 3FG%, .715 FT% in the regular season; 22.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.7 rpg, .9 spg, .497 FG%, .350 3FG%, .753 FT% while leading the Spurs to a 4-1 loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

Paul, Nash and Williams were the only point guards on this year's three All-NBA Teams. The other guards (Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Manu Ginobili) are shooting guards, as is Denver's Allen Iverson, who received the most points (116) in the voting of any player who did not make the team. Chauncey Billups and Baron Davis received slight consideration, amassing 38 and 32 points respectively; Ginobili, the last guard on the All-NBA Third Team, received 123 points, while Williams--who had the lowest total of the three point guards who made the cut--had 228 points.

Billups could perhaps be granted "elite emeritus" status based on his 2004 Finals MVP, his fifth place finish in the 2006 MVP voting and a pair of selections to the All-NBA Team (Second Team in 2006, Third Team in 2007), but he is a level below Paul, Nash, Williams and Parker now. In the 2007-08 regular season, Billups put up these numbers: 17.0 ppg, 6.8 apg, 2.7 rpg, 1.3 spg, .448 FG%, .401 3FG%, .918 FT%. His performance declined across the board in the playoffs.

Davis had an excellent season, perhaps the best all-around campaign of his career when you consider both production and durability, but I would not take him over Paul, Nash, Williams or Parker. Davis averaged 21.8 ppg, 7.6 apg (sixth in the NBA), 4.7 rpg, 2.3 spg (third in the NBA), .426 FG%, .330 3FG% and .750 FT% in 2007-08. Davis settles for jumpers and three pointers far too frequently, a flaw that he shares with Arenas, who played in just 13 regular season games and four playoff games in 2007-08.

At his best, Davis is an explosive talent who can physically dominate bigger players but his shot selection, subpar shooting ability and inconsistent defense render him a less reliable player than the truly elite point guards. Similarly, Arenas is a streak shooting talent who can be dazzling when he is hitting his shots but his shot selection is poor, his defense is worse than Davis' and he often seems to be more concerned about being the center of attention than winning games.

Davis and Arenas are not better than Paul, Nash, Williams or Parker and thus it is very difficult to objectively justify awarding a maximum contract to either of them. I say "objectively" because there are many other considerations that come into play: marketing, ticket sales, the reaction of the fan base of their respective teams, etc. However, purely on the basis of their individual skill sets and their ability to lead a championship contending team, neither Arenas nor Davis are worthy of receiving maximum contracts. Arenas is being lauded now for "giving back" $16 million instead of insisting on receiving the absolute maximum deal from the Wizards--I put "giving back" in quotation marks because you cannot really give something back that you never had in the first place; Arenas said, "You see players take max deals and they financially bind their teams. I don't wanna be one of those players and three years down the road your team is strapped and can't do anything about it." That is a laudable sentiment but even at this supposedly "discounted" rate Arenas is still vastly overpaid and it is questionable how much the Wizards will be able to do with that $16 million, an amount that could do a lot of good in the real world but does not necessarily give the team that much ability to significantly upgrade the roster. I commend Arenas for making that gesture but I still maintain that with him as the featured--and highest paid--player the Wizards will not get past the second round of the playoffs.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:14 AM

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Baron Davis Leaves the Warriors for the Clippers--And Both Teams Are Happy

It has been reported by multiple sources that Baron Davis will sign a five year, $65 million contract with the L.A. Clippers as soon as the NBA's annual moratorium on signings and trades ends on July 9; the moratorium is necessary because the next season's salary cap--which is based on the league's overall revenues--must be precisely determined in order to calculate bookkeeping issues such as whether or not certain deals are permissible and if these moves will force some teams to make "luxury tax" payments (any team that exceeds the salary cap must pay a dollar for dollar "tax" that goes into a fund that is divided among the teams that did not exceed the cap).

On Monday, Davis surprised many people by opting out of the final year of his contract with the Golden State Warriors, giving up a guaranteed $17.8 million to explore his options in free agency. Davis played in all 82 games last season, the first time he has done that since 2001-02, and he had thought of the 2007-08 season as something of an audition to validate that he is not only talented enough but also durable enough to justify receiving a big dollar extension from the Warriors. When it became apparent that the Warriors were not going to offer him that extension--essentially making the 2008-09 season another contract year for Davis--he decided getting $65 million over five years is a better move than getting $17.8 million for one year and hoping to receive a long term deal next offseason. Considering his age (29) and injury history that is very sound reasoning on his part. It is not likely that as a 30 year old guard in 2009 he would be able to negotiate a better deal than the one he is getting now and he would be running the risk that an injury plagued season could cause his value to plummet, potentially costing him tens of millions of dollars.

So this is a no-brainer for Davis and anyone who considers him a "traitor" for leaving the Warriors is missing the point and does not understand business. NBA players have a finite number of high earning years and--depending on various factors--they may only get one or two chances to be a free agent and have a certain degree of leverage. Davis took the best deal he could reasonably expect to receive and anyone who has any sense would have done the same thing given his choices.

Although the Warriors may have been playing a bit of high stakes poker--gambling that Davis would play next season for $17.8 million and take his chances about the future--they are far from heartbroken about the way things have turned out. Granted, if they had known Davis' intentions they may have elected to use their $10 million trade exception before it expired on Monday but, as one source in the Warriors' organization told the Sporting News' Sean Deveney, with Davis' contract off of the books, "It means there's lots of cap room for us now. It's a chance to remake this team with our young guys a year earlier."

In three seasons with the Warriors, Davis led them to one playoff appearance. While it was no doubt exciting for Golden State fans to knock off the number one seeded Dallas Mavericks in 2007, it should be obvious that the current nucleus of players was not going to lead the Warriors to the Western Conference Finals, let alone win a championship. It makes perfect sense for the Warriors to reload--they will still contend for a playoff berth next year and as their young players develop perhaps they can make a run at a title in a few years after adding one or two more pieces.

Does that mean that the Clippers are wrong to sign Davis? No, not at all. The Clippers desperately need a top notch point guard, whether or not Shaun Livingston completely recovers from his devastating injury. It appears that they will renounce their rights to Corey Maggette and then re-sign power forward Elton Brand. Assuming that Brand and Davis stay healthy, the Clippers now have an All-Star caliber low post scoring threat and an All-Star caliber point guard. Their potential starting lineup of Chris Kaman, Brand, second year forward Al Thornton--a beast in training--Davis and Cuttino Mobley is quite potent. The main questions for the Clippers are their health, their dedication at the defensive end of the court and the lack of depth on their bench. Still, on paper this looks like a team that could certainly be in the Western Conference playoff mix if those three concerns are properly addressed.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:46 AM

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

The Score, the Key Stat, the Bottom Line: Playoff Positioning

Saturday's action featured several games that affected playoff positioning for one or both teams. When the smoke cleared, the Wizards, Jazz and Warriors helped themselves, the Hawks moved one step closer to backing into the playoffs and the Sixers, Nuggets and Hornets all suffered setbacks.

The Score: Washington 109, Philadelphia 93

The Key Stat: Gilbert Arenas produced 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 25 minutes off of the bench, his best performance since coming back from knee surgery. He shot 7-14 from the field--including 4-9 from three point range--and had a game-high +21 plus/minus rating.

The Bottom Line: The Sixers could have moved up to fifth place in the East but instead they slid to seventh and the Wizards are now in fifth place. Washington controlled this game on both the inside and the outside, outrebounding Philadelphia 48-36 and shooting a blistering 12-22 (.545) from three point range. Antawn Jamison had an excellent game, posting game-high totals in points (25) and rebounds (13) to help the Wizards make up for the absence of injured All-Star Caron Butler. Arenas got off to a slow start, shooting just 2-8 from the field, but he owned the fourth quarter, scoring 12 points on 5-6 shooting while also contributing as a rebounder and playmaker. This is the Arenas that Wizards' fans have been waiting all season to see and if they get a steady diet of this Arenas then of course the Wizards could be a formidable team. Some people think that I "hate" Arenas but that is not the case at all; I just don't see him as an MVP caliber player. His performance against the 76ers was great, all the more so considering not only the significance of the game but the fact that he is still probably not 100% physically. Where I disagree with Arenas lovers/Wizards fans is whether or not this type of game is typical for Arenas. His field goal percentage, three point percentage and rebounds against the Sixers were all better than his career averages. I interpret that to mean that he is an All-Star player who had a very good game and an outstanding fourth quarter. Others will no doubt counter that once Arenas is fully healthy he will play like this on a nightly basis and the Wizards will win 50-plus games. I'll believe that when I see it; I think that it is just as likely that over the long haul he will have a lot of games in which he takes the same shots but finishes 4-14 from the field and 1-9 from three point range.

The Score: Utah 124, Denver 97

The Key Stat: Utah shot .575 from the field and outrebounded Denver 44-36. Allen Iverson (28 points) and Carmelo Anthony (22 points) were the two highest scoring players in the game--and also posted the two worst plus/minus numbers (-25 for Anthony, -24 for Iverson). The Jazz enjoyed remarkable offensive balance and efficiency, as three players scored 20 points each (Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Ronnie Brewer) while combining to shoot 25-38 from the field; Deron Williams ran the show (19 points, 11 assists, 7-11 field goal shooting).

The Bottom Line: Call them the "enver" Nuggets because there is no "D" in Denver this year. The Nuggets are engaged in a death match with Golden State for the eighth playoff berth in the West, so naturally they gave up 40 points to Utah in the first quarter. Then, relying on their explosive offense, the Nuggets surged back from a 16 point deficit to briefly take the lead before getting outscored 34-18 in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets own the tiebreaker over Golden State, so they still control their own destiny but now they have no margin for error with just two games remaining. This contest was also very important for the Jazz, who own perhaps the best homecourt advantage in the league and are still in contention to host a first round playoff series.

The Score: Golden State 122, L.A. Clippers 116

The Key Stat: Stephen Jackson (28 points on 8-17 shooting) and Baron Davis (25 points on 10-21 shooting) broke out of their recent shooting slumps as the Warriors took a 42-26 first quarter lead and held on for dear life. Fortunately for them, they were playing the Clippers at home, not the Jazz on the road.

The Bottom Line: Either Denver or Golden State will probably set a record for most wins without making the playoffs but are these teams really so great? They both run hot and cold, depend far too much on their offense and thus cannot hang their hats on fundamentals like defense and rebounding to help them to win on nights when their shots are not falling. The Warriors benefited in last year's playoffs by getting a favorable matchup with Dallas but--contrary to the hype in some quarters--I don't believe that either of these teams will pull off that kind of an upset this season.

The Score: Boston 99, Atlanta 89

The Key Stat: The Celtics' "Big Three" played fewer minutes than usual but Sam Cassell produced 20 points off of the bench--including 15 points in the fourth quarter--as the Celtics' reserves outplayed the Hawks' starters down the stretch.

The Bottom Line: Despite the loss, the Hawks moved one step closer to clinching a playoff berth--and a first round matchup with the Celtics--because the Indiana Pacers lost 107-103 to the Charlotte Bobcats. All the Hawks need now is one more win or one more Indiana loss. The Hawks are a young, upcoming team but they don't have the experience, the mental focus or the defense that will be necessary to challenge the Celtics in the playoffs. Considering that as many as three of the East playoff teams may have losing records it is somewhat appropriate that the battle for the last spot may be decided more by other teams' losses than by Atlanta's wins; the Hawks are 2-3 in their last five games, including a 112-98 loss to Indiana.

The Score: Sacramento 94, New Orleans 91

The Key Stat: Chris Paul shot 4-13 from the field for the second game in a row, though he did produce 14 points, 12 assists, six rebounds and six steals.

The Bottom Line: The Hornets entered this game controlling their destiny in terms of claiming the top seed in the West but now the Lakers can seize that position by winning their last two games. This was a huge loss for the Hornets because it is possible now that they will not even have homecourt advantage in the first round.

I don't buy the idea that the winner of the regular season MVP award should be largely decided by what happens in a handful of games at the end of the season; the MVP should honor a body of work produced in an entire year. However, all the Chris Paul advocates who have been saying for the past month that if the Hornets get the number one seed in the West then he should win the MVP should now admit that Bryant deserves to receive this year's MVP. Bryant has successfully steered the Lakers through "three" seasons, overcoming not only injuries to his team's two best centers but also his own finger injury that will require offseason surgery. Bryant is a 28-6-5 player who is also one of the league's top defenders. Paul has had a breakout season but Bryant is widely acknowledged to be the best player in the league; the past couple years we have heard different excuses for why Bryant was "disqualified" from winning the MVP but this season he has met every conceivable benchmark: his individual numbers are great, his team is highly successful and no one can deny the leadership that he has demonstrated with his young teammates and in helping Pau Gasol quickly become acclimated after joining the team in midseason.

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 AM

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Friday, April 11, 2008

The Score, the Key Stat, the Bottom Line: Final Thursday of the Regular Season

The final Thursday of the 2007-08 regular season featured a role reversal for two teams who are very familiar with each other. The Golden State Warriors eliminated the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of last year's playoffs but the Warriors' loss to Denver last night helped the Mavericks clinch a berth in this year's playoffs while putting the Warriors' postseason hopes in serious jeopardy. Meanwhile, the Lakers took care of business versus the Clippers in an "away" game at Staples Center, setting the stage for a dramatic home game versus the West-leading New Orleans Hornets at Staples on Friday night. The Lakers finish the season with a three game homestand and are still very much in contention for the number one seed in the West.

The Score: Denver 114, Golden State 105

The Key Stat: Allen Iverson had 33 points, nine assists and just two turnovers while playing all 48 minutes to help Denver take command in the race for the last playoff spot in the West. He shot 12-21 from the field. Carmelo Anthony (25 points on 12-20 shooting, nine rebounds) and J.R. Smith (24 points in 26 minutes) also had strong games, while Baron Davis (9-25 from the field) and Stephen Jackson (5-17 from the field) shot blanks, though Davis did finish with a triple double (20 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds).

The Bottom Line: Iverson and Anthony were fantastic but Jackson deserves some MVP consideration--not for the NBA or for the Warriors but for the Nuggets, because his performance as the Warriors have lost four of their last six games has played a big role in helping Denver move into eighth place: Jackson has averaged 11 ppg in those games while shooting 22-76 (.289) from the field, including 7-34 (.206) from three point range. The Warriors jumped out to a 37-22 lead in the first quarter but then Denver switched to a zone defense and the Warriors could not have looked more confused if a UFO had landed in the middle of the court and aliens took the place of the Nuggets. The Warriors shot early, often and not very accurately from three point range (6-27, .222), with Davis "leading" that charge by connecting on just one of his nine long distance shots. Here is an easy transition hoop for Anthony after a slick pass from Anthony Carter:



TNT ran an interesting graphic during the game that listed Denver's eight "bad" losses during the season; eight games is nearly 10% of the schedule, so if you buy the theory that once is an accident, twice is a trend and three times is a problem then eight times is a really serious problem. In two of the past three years the Nuggets have won game one of the playoffs on the road versus San Antonio only to lose the series in five games each time; they will be happy to not play the Spurs in the first round if possible but I still don't expect them to win more than two playoff games no matter which of the top four teams they face.

The Score: Dallas 97, Utah 94

The Key Stat: With Josh Howard limited by injury to just three points in 20 minutes, Dirk Nowitzki produced a game-high 32 points on 12-23 shooting, including the game-winning three point shot with :00.9 left:




The Mavs went 2-2 when Nowitzki was out due to a severe ankle sprain but they are 4-1 since he returned to action.

The Bottom Line: This win not only clinched a playoff berth for Dallas but it moved Nowitzki's Mavericks into some pretty elite company. They have won at least 50 games in a season for eight straight years. The only teams in NBA history who have matched or exceeded that are Magic Johnson's Lakers (12 years), Bill Russell's Celtics (10 years), Tim Duncan's Spurs (nine years, a streak that is still active) and Larry Bird's Celtics (nine years). Of course, the glaring hole in Nowitzki's resume is that he has not won a championship; Magic won five titles, Russell won 11 (including one that preceded the 50-win streak and one that came after the streak ended), Duncan has won four titles and Bird won three titles. Nevertheless, the consistency that the Mavs have displayed during the Nowitkzi era is very impressive and very underrated. The fact that Nowitzki is performing so well despite his recent injury should only add to people's respect for his game but until he wins a championship his critics will always bring up Dallas' disappointing performances in the 2006 NBA Finals and the first round of the 2007 NBA playoffs.

The Score: L.A. Lakers 106, L.A. Clippers 78

The Key Stat: Six Lakers scored in double figures, but none of them had more than Luke Walton's 18 points. Kobe Bryant had a quiet night (16 points on 6-17 shooting, three rebounds, three assists) and did not play in the fourth quarter during what Marv Albert loves to call "extensive gar-bage time." Bryant did have two blocked shots, one of which was definitely highlight worthy:




The Bottom Line: The Clippers only trailed 51-42 at halftime but, as Charles Barkley predicted, the Lakers "beat them like a drum" in the second half. We did not learn too much about the Lakers but they should be well rested when they play the Hornets tonight. It was nice to see Elton Brand get some good run (23 points on 10-20 shooting, seven rebounds); he had 15 first quarter points but his minutes are still restricted as he recovers from his Achilles tendon injury. He has averaged 18.6 ppg and 6.8 rpg in five games so far. Rookie Al Thornton (22 points, 10 rebounds, two blocked shots, two steals) simply oozes athletic ability. Passing is not really a big part of his repertoire yet (one assist in 44 minutes) but he looks like he can become a big-time scorer once his game becomes a little more refined. Smush Parker had perhaps the most amazing stat line of anyone in this game: a -27 plus/minus rating in 28 minutes of action. It is hard to be worth nearly a negative point per minute but he has proven to be up to that task for multiple teams so far during his career. His individual numbers actually were not that bad (12 points on 4-8 shooting) but you have to watch him play to fully appreciate the passes that are made too early or too late and all of the wonderful intangibles that he provides; Lakers fans certainly know exactly what I am talking about, Heat fans quickly learned and Clippers fans will know pretty soon.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:41 AM

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Thursday, March 13, 2008

One of the NBA's True Gems: Color Commentator Jim Barnett

Jim Barnett enjoyed a solid NBA career, averaging 11.7 ppg in 11 seasons, including a career-high 18.5 ppg for Portland in 1970-71. He kept playing hoops long after his NBA career ended and he still participates in AAU Master's tournaments. For the past 23 years, Barnett has been the color commentator on local Golden State Warriors' broadcasts and if you have not heard him do a game then you have missed a real treat: he is analytical, he does not get hyper and even though he clearly supports the Warriors he is definitely not a homer.

Barnett made several interesting observations during Golden State's 117-106 victory over Toronto on Wednesday. Early in the game, the 7-0 Rasho Nesterovic caught the ball in the post with the 6-3 Baron Davis guarding him one-on-one. Barnett immediately said, "He shouldn't wait. He should go right up." As he uttered those words, Nesterovic dribbled, Davis timed the move perfectly and as Nesterovic tried to shoot Davis made a sensational block and went coast to coast for a layup to put the Warriors up 16-4. If this were an ESPN telecast, all we would hear is Stephen A. Smith screaming Nesterovic's name derisively. Instead, Barnett calmly explained what happened on the play as only someone who actually understands the game could do: "Nesterovic played into the hands of Baron. When you put it on the floor like that, you give Baron time to react and work his magic. He didn't need to dribble; he should have just gone up and shot the ball over Baron." This just shows how a "mismatch" is only a "mismatch" if you know how to take advantage of it. Nesterovic (or Dirk Nowitzki in last year's playoffs) should not pound the ball and try to get a little closer to the hoop; he is tall enough and has a good enough shooting stroke that if he shoots the ball right after he catches it there is no way that Davis can bother his shot. By trying to gain an "advantage" Nesterovic actually put himself at a disadvantage.

A little later in the game, the Warriors bungled a three on one fast break opportunity. Barnett commented, "A three on one should become a two on one--I've always said that. All you do is split the defender, coming in at a 45 degree angle. If you are going to be a trailer, you better be a late trailer. You should not be involved in the play."

After young Warriors guard C.J. Watson traveled while trying to take one dribble before shooting a pull up jumper, Barnett advised, "It is so important to understand and implement your fundamentals--and the first one ever is to establish a pivot foot and put the majority of your weight on it. Then it won't move."

Warriors' small forward Stephen Jackson shot just 1-6 from the field to start the game, with most of his misses coming on long jumpers, so Golden State Coach Don Nelson ran a play for Jackson to catch the ball in the post. Jackson was fouled and made both free throws. Barnett noted, "They took the ball out of his hands on the perimeter so that he would not launch a three or go one on one...Don Nelson is not upset with him; he's just saying, 'I'm going to make it easier on him' and put him in a position where he has a chance to succeed, not fail, because he had been struggling." That subtle move by Nelson paid dividends later on, because Jackson shot 6-9 from the field the rest of the way and he made several big shots in the second half to help the Warriors hold off the Raptors.

In the second half, 7-0 center-forward Andrea Bargnani caught the ball in the post against Davis and immediately made a turnaround jumper. Davis retrieved the ball after it went through the net and bounced it in frustration before the Warriors inbounded. Revisiting the theme of what a big man who is a face up shooter should do when he catches the ball with Davis guarding him, Barnett said, "He is much better when he doesn't put it on the floor and just turns and shoots."

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:00 PM

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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Mavericks Follow Correct Prescription, Run Warriors off of the Court

Anyone who visits this site regularly knows that I have repeatedly insisted (most recently in this post) that teams should not be afraid to run against the Golden State Warriors and that the Dallas Mavericks could have avoided their upset loss to the Warriors in last year's playoffs if the Mavericks had pushed the ball up the court instead of trying to slow the game down. These truths were once against confirmed in Dallas' 121-99 win over Golden State on Wednesday night. Dirk Nowitzki scored a game-high 29 points on 9-16 shooting, adding eight rebounds, six assists and three blocked shots. Nowitzki had a game-high plus/minus rating of +25. Five other Mavericks also scored in double figures, including Josh Howard, who had 19 points and a game-high 13 rebounds as Dallas outrebounded Golden State 50-35. Stephen Jackson led Golden State with 25 points but he shot just 8-21 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. Baron Davis, who terrorized Dallas during the playoffs, had just 10 points and six assists, shooting 2-14 from the field. The first time these teams played this season, Dallas also won a fast paced game--120-115--but some people tried to diminish the significance of that victory because Jackson did not play due to being suspended by the NBA.

During a first quarter timeout, Dallas Coach Avery Johnson told his team, "Keep pushing the ball. Run for layups." The Mavericks followed his advice and led 36-23 after the first 12 minutes. Golden State Coach Don Nelson loves to go after whoever he thinks is the opposing team's worst defender and/or whichever individual matchup he thinks is most in favor of one of his players. His starting lineup did not include a traditional center and it soon became obvious that the Warriors were focused on trying to exploiting the fact that Dallas center Erick Dampier was guarding Al Harrington, who is really a small forward. The Warriors may have won that battle on the surface--Harrington outscored Dampier 14-4 in the first quarter--but the Mavericks won the war and had the lead because they took many of their shots within eight seconds on the shot clock, thereby preventing the Warriors from setting up the zone defenses and gimmicky traps that caused Dallas so much trouble during last year's playoff series between these teams. A major mistake that Dallas made during the playoffs was changing a starting lineup that had gone 67-15 during the regular season. There is no reason that the Mavericks cannot beat the Warriors using their regular lineup. Harrington's early points proved to be fool's gold, while Dampier provided a strong inside presence throughout the game, taking advantage of scoring opportunities in the paint, setting solid screens, getting rebounds and blocking shots. Dampier finished with 13 points on 5-5 shooting, seven rebounds and three blocked shots, while Harrington did not do much after his first quarter outburst and ended up with 21 points.

Dirk Nowitzki's fast break layup put the Mavericks up 40-25. It is very important to note that when he took that shot only four seconds had gone off of the shot clock. Having your seven foot tall, MVP player shooting a layup is much better than slowing the game down and having him try to score in the post against a swarming defense. Nowitzki's three pointer at the 3:54 mark put Dallas up 58-40; he took that shot after just six seconds had gone off of the shot clock. As I've been saying for months now, Nowitzki is a face up shooter, so it makes no sense to slow the game down and have him grind it out in the post with defenders trapping him as the shot clock winds down; push the ball up the court, have Nowitzki spot up and then the guards will either score layups or if the defense collapses to stop their drives then Nowitzki can drain open jumpers/three pointers all night long. For some reason, in the closing minutes of the first half Dallas decided to "exploit" the alleged mismatch of Davis guarding Nowitzki or Howard on the post. The Mavericks got nothing out of these possessions; on one occasion, Howard bricked a turn around jumper and five seconds later Davis drove to the hoop and was fouled by Nowitzki. The Warriors will push the ball relentlessly regardless of what their opponents do; slowing the game down only leads to bad shots and turnovers (both of which are caused by defensive pressure and poor decisions made with the shot clock running down) that make it easier for the Warriors to score in the open court. Could there be a worse sequence from Dallas' standpoint than a missed shot that five seconds later leads to a foul being committed by the Mavericks' best player? Davis made both free throws to cut Dallas' lead to 60-50. Dallas missed a shot but retained possession when Golden State knocked the ball out of bounds. Howard received the inbounds pass, went one on one versus Mickael Pietrus and took a tough jumper over Pietrus and Davis, who arrived in time to double-team Howard; Golden State rebounded the miss and three seconds later Jackson scored a fast break layup, cutting Dallas' lead to 60-52 at halftime.

Harrington scored 20 points in the first half, while Howard and Devin Harris had 13 points each. Nowitzki contributed 11 points, four rebounds and four assists and Dampier added 10 points, five rebounds and two blocked shots. Nowitzki shot 3-5 from the field and picked apart double teams with good passes that led to scores. NBA TV's Rick Kamla said during the halftime show that Nowitzki had not played well in the first half; I'm not sure what game he was watching, but when someone shoots .600 from the field, his team is up by eight and he is on pace for 22 points, eight rebounds and eight assists I'd call that a pretty good performance. Kamla also said that Dallas needed to slow the game down, apparently not noticing that Dallas was leading and the Mavericks got the lead by playing at a fast tempo. The Mavericks shot 55% from the field, a far cry from how poorly they shot during last year's playoffs when they insisted on slowing down the game. They also held the Warriors to 42% shooting; the Warriors kept the game close by shooting 7-12 (.583) from the three point line and forcing nine turnovers, many of which happened in the half court, not in transition.

The Mavericks opened the third quarter by running a screen and roll play with Nowitzki and Harris. Nowitzki caught a pass from Harris, took one dribble and drained a jumper right in Jackson's eye. There is simply no reason for Nowitzki to post up Jackson, which invites double teams and takes Nowitzki out of his comfort zone; whenever Nowitzki faces up Jackson he can simply use his height advantage to shoot over him, either right after the catch or, like in this instance, after using his dribble to get Jackson to backpedal a bit. On the Mavericks' next possession, they inexplicably did not go back to what worked, with Harris instead driving wildly to the hoop and getting his shot blocked. Ironically, Nowitzki recovered the ball at the three point line, set himself and hit another jumper. On Dallas' third possession, Nowitzki posted up Jackson, backed him down and then took an off balance shot in the lane that rolled off of the rim. Meanwhile, Golden State, employing their customary questionable shot selection, bricked shots from all angles. After a Jackson miss, the Mavericks ran out and Eddie Jones hit a jumper after just three seconds had run off of the shot clock, putting Dallas up 67-54. After that, other than one face up jumper by Nowitzki, the Mavericks went away from what had been working and instead slowed the game down and failed to get the ball to Nowitzki in positions where he could face up and go to work. Meanwhile, Jackson exploited smaller defenders in the post, Golden State hit cutters for layups and Dallas often struggled to get off good shots in the half court set. By the 1:30 mark the Warriors had cut the Mavericks' lead to 83-80; Dallas led 89-85 by the end of the quarter.

Nowitzki posted up Jackson early in the fourth quarter but instead of taking an off balance shot he launched a smooth turnaround jumper that swished through the net and put Dallas up 91-85. Soon after that, the Mavericks finally went back to the Nowitzki screen and roll play; this time it led to a three point play as Jason Terry made a layup and drew a foul. Then the Mavericks forced a Davis turnover and pushed the ball up the court, with Howard driving to the hoop, scoring on a drive and drawing a foul. His free throw put Dallas up 97-85. After a Warriors' backcourt violation, Nowitzki posted up Davis, drew a double team, passed the ball back out and the Mavericks reversed the ball to the corner for an open Howard three pointer that made the score 100-85. The Warriors never mounted a serious threat after that point, plagued by turnovers and some wild shots that missed badly. In one sequence, Nowitzki blocked two Jackson shot attempts before snaring the defensive rebound.

The Mavericks did not push the ball quite as much as they could have and at times they got away from the things that they do best but they took advantage of enough fast break opportunities and Nowitzki face up shots to get the win. If the Mavericks had played this way against Golden State during the playoffs they probably would have swept the series.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:10 AM

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Saturday, December 15, 2007

Injury Hobbles Kobe Bryant as Warriors Beat the Lakers

The L.A. Lakers have some promising players and the bench has played well this season--but anyone who thinks that Kobe Bryant's contributions are not vitally important to the team's success should have watched the closing moments of Golden State's come from behind 108-106 victory over the Lakers on Friday night. Bryant suffered a groin pull (though some early reports called it a slight tear in his left quadriceps) in the fourth quarter as the Lakers clung to a small lead against a team that they had beaten in 14 of their previous 15 games, including a 123-113 decision last Sunday. Bryant led both teams with 28 points and eight assists in that game while also playing a big role in holding Baron Davis to three points in the second half.

On Friday, Davis struggled for most of the game before scoring eight points in the final 3:19 and delivering a key assist during that time. He finished with 22 points (6-15 field goal shooting), six assists, three rebounds and three steals. Al Harrington also scored 22 points, Stephen Jackson added 20 and Monta Ellis contributed 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Bryant had 21 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals and one blocked shot but he shot just 6-23 from the field, including 0-4 after he sustained his injury. Lamar Odom had 18 points, 15 rebounds and five assists but did not distinguish himself down the stretch, while Andrew Bynum authored yet another double double (17 points on 8-10 shooting, 16 rebounds).

Bryant struggled with his shot during Friday's game even before he got hurt but ESPN's ubiquitous microphones did a good job of capturing the impact of Bryant's verbal leadership on the Lakers' defense; as Coach Phil Jackson noted, this is an exceptional role for a shooting guard to assume because usually a team's defense is led by a dominant big man who is stationed deep in the paint (because all of the action happens in front of such a player, who can call out picks and alert his teammates to everything that is happening).

With Bryant's mobility drastically curtailed in the closing moments, the Lakers truly faced a no-win situation: leave him on the court and hope that he could gut it out and lead the team to victory or relegate him to the bench and count on Odom to take command; as it turned out, neither plan worked. For several possessions, Bryant kept waving to the bench to not take him out of the game but at one point during a stoppage of play he went up to Odom and, according to ESPN's broadcasting crew of Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson, told him that he would have to step up because of Bryant's injury. On offense, Bryant set screens, directed traffic and missed a few standstill jumpers but it was clear that he could not make any explosive moves; he did manage to sucker Stephen Jackson into fouling him on a jump shot but he only split that pair of free throws, giving the Lakers a 103-98 lead with 2:38 left. Bryant did his best to stay with Davis next time down the court but he got picked off by Jackson; Luke Walton switched but Davis faked him out and buried a three pointer to pull the Warriors to within two points.

Derek Fisher used a Bryant screen to get open on the next possession but Fisher missed a running bank shot. Davis caught the outlet pass at three quarter court and simply blew by the limping Bryant, eventually feeding Jackson for a reverse layup. Phil Jackson decided to remove Bryant from the game with the score tied and 1:27 left, giving everyone a good glimpse of what the Lakers would look like without Bryant. Fisher split a pair of free throws that resulted from a loose ball foul that was committed right before Bryant sat down. The Lakers played decent defense on the next possession but Andris Biedrins tipped in Ellis' missed jumper to put Golden State up, 105-104. Some people say that Bryant is holding Odom back and that the ball should be in his hands more often; well, those people got their wish, a decision that Mark Jackson immediately criticized: "I say bring in your best player and allow him to create a mismatch or get someone else an open shot." Instead, Odom received a dribble handoff outside the three point line with 12 seconds left on the shot clock. He spent the next ten seconds dribbling aimlessly before stumbling into the lane and wildly flinging the ball off of the backboard. Trevor Ariza was wide open on the baseline; granted, Ariza is not a great jump shooter but what Odom threw up had zero chance of going in. After that disastrous possession, Davis hit a three pointer to effectively seal the win for Golden State.

I'm not saying that the Lakers would have automatically won if Bryant had been healthy; Davis made some clutch shots and maybe he would have made them right in Bryant's face--but if Bryant had not been hobbled then Davis would have had a tougher time and the Lakers would not have had two offensive possessions end in an Odom shot that defies description or explanation and a difficult runner by Fisher. Bryant would have either taken those shots himself or created a wide open shot for a teammate by breaking down the defense with dribble penetration. Without Bryant's ability to create off of the dribble on offense and guard the other team's top perimeter player on defense, the Lakers--for all of their improvements--are not a great team or even a good one. Scoring runs by bench players against bench players in the middle of games are great and they provide opportunities to rest Bryant and keep him fresh to close out games but those bench players--or even the other starters--are not going to be taking over late in the fourth quarter of close games. Bynum had a strong game but without Bryant to either attract the defense or feed him the ball he is not a crunch time scoring option at this stage of his career.

In addition to the Kobe Bryant-Manu Ginobili storyline in Thursday night's Lakers-Spurs game, another interesting subplot in that game was the pace, which is always an important factor when Golden State is involved--but not necessarily the way that a lot of people think that it is; I recently pointed out that, contrary to popular belief, teams should not be afraid to run against the Warriors. That led to an interesting discussion in the comments section of that post about the significance of pace as a strategic factor in the NBA. Prior to the Lakers-Spurs game, TNT's Doug Collins listed four keys that he thought would determine the outcome and one of them was tempo (which is another way of saying pace); Collins explained that the Lakers were 11-3 when scoring at least 100 points (studio analyst Charles Barkley added that the Spurs could only win if they kept the score in the high 70s or low 80s, because without Duncan and Parker they did not have enough firepower to score enough in a fast paced game). Sure enough, the Spurs led after a low scoring first quarter (19-18) but fell behind in the second quarter when the Lakers sped the game up to take a 51-43 halftime lead en route to a 102-97 victory.

How did pace figure into Friday's game? Obviously, the Bryant injury skews things, because the Lakers scored just 21 points in the fourth quarter after putting up 28, 26 and 31 in the previous three. However, prior to when Bryant got hurt, we saw plenty of evidence that reaffirms what I have been saying about this. For instance, consider two first quarter plays: first, Odom faced up Stephen Jackson on the wing, held the ball (allowing the defense to get set) and then drove; Baron Davis stripped the ball and five seconds later Ellis converted a fast break layup. On the Lakers' next possession, Bryant attacked the paint with a drive in transition before the defense could get set. Even though he missed his initial shot he was able to get the rebound because the Warriors' defense was all scrambled. Bryant got fouled and made both free throws. When the Warriors set up their half court defense they take advantage of their quick hands and their tenacity to cause problems even though they are undersized and sometimes have mental lapses; in contrast, their transition from offense to defense is much slower than vice versa, so there are plenty of opportunities to score on them in fast break or even semi-fast break situations before they are able to set up their traps and rotations. When teams try to slow the game down against Golden State what happens is that they spend 20 seconds fighting to get off a shot against quick defenders who have active hands--and then the Warriors get the rebound and race down court to score a layup (or an uncontested three pointer) in just a few seconds; that was last year's Golden State-Dallas series in a nutshell, with Dallas trying to fight trench warfare and Golden State answering with a lightning fast attack.

If you think that coaches are not concerned about pace/tempo or if you think that Phil Jackson does not believe that the Lakers can run on Golden State, consider what he said to Ric Bucher after the first quarter, when the Lakers led 28-19: "We've gotten the play at the pace we want. One shot and done (defensively) and we're pacing the game the way that we want to pace it." In other words, he was happy that the Lakers were on pace to score 112 points. You might think that any coach would be happy with that but keep in mind that when the Lakers almost upset the Suns in the 2006 playoffs, Jackson used the "Inside Man" strategy of slowing the game down and going inside because he knew that the Lakers could not beat the Suns in a fast paced game. Most teams have to slow the game down against the Suns because the Suns are so efficient in an uptempo game; the Warriors' shot selection and accuracy are not as good as the Suns', so it is possible to successfully run against them.

The next part of the interview had nothing to do with pace or anything else in this post but it is too funny to not reprint here. Bucher asked what would be the key to limiting the Lakers' turnovers and Jackson smiled wryly as he offered this priceless answer: "Don't bring the ball in traffic. Kobe's having a hard time handling it right now. It's a highly pumped ball. It's a taut ball, so it's a little bit quicker than usual." Bryant had two assists and three turnovers in the first quarter and when Bucher later asked him what adjustment he made to stop turning the ball over (Bryant had two turnovers in the last three quarters), Bryant did not use the "taut ball" defense but simply said, "Hold on to the damn ball."

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:33 AM

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Monday, December 10, 2007

Teams Should not be Afraid to Run Against the Warriors

Many people think that the way to beat the Golden State Warriors is to slow the game down but, as I repeatedly mentioned during last year's playoffs, this is not the case. Check out these numbers from the Warriors' first 20 games this season (including Sunday night's 123-113 loss to the Lakers): the nine teams that beat Golden State averaged 117.8 ppg versus the Warriors, while the 11 teams that lost to the Warriors averaged 100.3 ppg. Although it may seem counterintuitive (because Golden State wants to play at a fast tempo), teams have more success against the Warriors by playing at a fast pace than they do slowing the game down. Playing fast does not have to mean jacking up three pointers or abandoning the inside game: the Lakers shot .531 from the field and selectively utilized the three point shot (8-18, .444), while Golden State fired away from all angles with much less accuracy, shooting .468 from the field, including 8-33 (.242) from three point range.

On the other hand, if you try to run with the Phoenix Suns you will most likely lose, except for the Spurs, whose three stars can play effectively at any pace, as they showed on several occasions in the 2005 and 2007 playoff matchups between these teams. Golden State (110.4 ppg) and Phoenix (110.2 ppg) rank 1-2 in scoring so far this season but there are several differences between the Suns and the Warriors that show why it is wise to run with the Warriors and foolish to run with the Suns. Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in field goal percentage (.495); although the Suns only rank 20th in defensive field goal percentage, they shoot .034 better than their opponents do, which is a big reason that they rank sixth in the NBA in point differential (5.8 ppg--note: the original version of this post listed an incorrect number and ranking for the Suns). Golden State ranks 15th in field goal percentage (.452) and 24th in defensive field goal percentage (.465). The key thing to note is that the Warriors shoot .013 worse than their opponents and only rank 12th in point differential (2.3 ppg--note: the original version of this post listed an incorrect number and ranking for the Warriors). What all of these numbers show is that the Warriors are not as good as the Suns offensively or defensively, even though their team scoring averages are virtually identical.

In Sunday's game, the Lakers scored at least 31 points in three of the four quarters (they had 29 points in the second quarter). Kobe Bryant only scored eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting in the first half and the Lakers still had a 60-59 halftime lead. Think about that: the Lakers were beating the Warriors in a fast paced game even with Bryant not scoring at his usual rate (he did contribute to the Lakers' offense with his passing, making several great feeds to cutters and open perimeter shooters). In the second half, Bryant scored 20 points on 6-10 shooting and was largely responsible for holding Baron Davis to just three points. Bryant finished with game-highs in points (28) and assists (eight) and also had six rebounds, three steals and one blocked shot. His plus/minus number was a game-high +22; Lamar Odom, who contributed 14 points, 10 rebounds and six assists while playing essentially at the same times that Bryant did, also had a +22 plus/minus number. Davis shot 7-17 from the field and ended up with 20 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, four steals and one blocked shot. At the 4:41 mark of the fourth quarter, Davis became so frustrated by his matchup with Bryant that he wrapped his arms around Bryant when Bryant tried to cut to the hoop, earning a personal foul and a technical foul; Bryant made two of the resulting three free throws to put the Lakers up, 116-99.

Although the Lakers played at a fast pace, they were still able to utilize the inside scoring of Andrew Bynum, who shot 9-14 from the field and had 20 points, 11 rebounds and five blocked shots. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson recently criticized Bynum's conditioning and he seems to be playing Bynum in six or eight minute bursts, with plenty of rest in between (Bynum played 28:18 minutes against Golden State). NBA TV broadcast the Lakers' feed of this game; during the second quarter, play by play man Joel Meyers did a brief interview with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who has been working with Bynum for quite some time. Abdul-Jabbar likes the progress that his young protege has made but laments that Bynum does not use the sky hook during games. Yes, Abdul-Jabbar has been teaching Bynum the shot that helped him become the NBA's all-time leading scorer; he told Meyers that Bynum has a very good hook shot but lacks the confidence to use it in live action. Meyers asked Abdul-Jabbar to describe the biggest change in the NBA since his playing days and Abdul-Jabbar said that the collective basketball IQ in the league has declined because so many players have entered the league with little or no college experience.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:35 AM

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Friday, November 09, 2007

Mavs Down Warriors in a Fast Paced Shootout

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Golden State Warriors 120-115 in a rematch of last season's most exciting first round playoff series. One regular season win does not avenge being on the wrong end of perhaps the greatest upset in NBA history but it does once again reaffirm what I have said numerous times about the Warriors: contrary to popular belief, the way to beat them is not to slow the game down but to speed it up. I pointed out during last year's playoffs that the numbers clearly show that this is true. If you watch Golden State closely, then you understand why this is the case. As I wrote in the above post months ago, the Warriors play like a bunch of Gilbert Arenas clones: "Arenas shoots from anywhere at any time and when he is hot everything is beautiful. Of course, sooner or later bad shot selection catches up with you" (Arenas' Wizards are 0-4, a subject that I will discuss in my next post). The Utah Jazz ran Golden State out of the gym in the second round of the playoffs and the Jazz did it again last week.

Six Mavericks scored in double figures, with four of them getting more than 20 points: Josh Howard and Jason Terry had 24 points each, Dirk Nowitzki had 22 points (plus 11 rebounds) and Devin Harris had 21 points. Baron Davis led the Warriors with 37 points, while Kelenna Azubuike--a second year forward who started in place of the suspended Stephen Jackson--had 27 points, 11 rebounds and four assists. Nowitzki only shot 6-15 from the field but he had the best plus/minus score (+13) of any player in the game. He is criticized for not posting up the smaller Golden State players who guard him but Nowitzki is not a postup player; he didn't lead the Mavericks to the 2006 Finals by posting people up and he didn't lead the Mavericks to 67 victories in 2007--winning the MVP in the process--by posting people up. Nowitzki is a great faceup shooter who is an above average driver, a very good rebounder and an improving passer. Golden State Coach Don Nelson drafted Nowitzki and coached him for years, so he knows better than anyone what Nowitzki can and cannot do--and, just as importantly, what Nowitzki is comfortable doing. That is why Nelson uses all of these zone defenses against Dallas and why he puts the short but muscular Davis on Nowitzki; Nelson is trying to bait Dallas into posting up Nowitzki, taking him away from his comfort zones. Nowitzki does not have great post moves and any time he puts the ball on the floor in the post area the smaller, quicker Warriors players swarm him, resulting in forced shots or forced passes. Nowitkzi is tall and lanky, with a high center of gravity; he is never going to bull over a fireplug like Davis, nor is he going to overpower Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins or Jackson (who often guarded Nowitzki during last year's playoffs). What Nowitzki needs to do is catch the ball on the wing, facing the hoop; if his defender crowds him, then he can drive, draw an extra defender and pass to the open man. If his defender backs up, then he can shoot right over him; if the defender is as short as Davis he can shoot right over him whether or not he backs up. This is why Dallas should be pushing the ball and running as little halfcourt offense as possible, even if this goes against what Coach Avery Johnson ideally would prefer to do. When the Mavericks push the ball Nowitzki can get a lot of open jumpers without having to worry about being double-teamed; even if you try to play a slowdown game against Golden State as soon as the Warriors get the ball they are off and running; what ends up happening is you fight in the halfcourt against their zones and traps for 24 seconds without getting a good look, then they get the ball--make or miss--and run it down your throat. That is how Dallas lost to Golden State in last year's playoffs. Dallas and Utah have better individual players than Golden State and they have better teams, so neither squad should be afraid to get into a running game with the Warriors.

A sequence that happened at the end of the third quarter should help make all of this clear. With less than a minute remaining, Nowitzki caught the ball near the top of the key. He was facing the hoop with Monta Ellis guarding him. Instead of turning his back to the basket and trying to post Ellis up, Nowitzki simply took one dribble and drilled a foul line jumper over the much shorter Golden State guard. Yes, it is true that Charles Barkley--who even in his playing days had a rear end wide enough to be on both sides of the lane at the same time and who was also an explosive leaper--would have backed Ellis into the first row and dunked on him; yes, it is true that Tim Duncan would have backed Ellis down, made a little bank shot and drawn a foul. Nowitzki has a different body and a different game than those guys and that did not stop him from leading his team to a playoff series win over Duncan's Spurs two years ago. Within five seconds of Nowitzki's jumper nestling through the hoop, Golden State pushed the ball up the court, resulting in a Biedrins dunk--make or miss, the Warriors are running. Dallas now had the ball with 46 seconds left, enough time to go "two for one"--in other words, shoot with more than 24 seconds on the clock, thereby making sure that the Warriors cannot take the last shot of the quarter. Instead of playing in attack mode, which might have led to another Nowitzki jumper, Dallas slowed down for over 20 seconds and ended up with an off balance attempt by Harris; Golden State could have held the ball for the last shot but instead they rushed the ball up the court and Ellis scored a layup four seconds after Harris' miss. See the pattern? Whether the opponent plays fast or slow, Golden State plays fast and often shoots in five seconds or less. You might think that you can grind it out in the post against Golden State's smaller players but they are athletic, physical and tough--the postup game is fool's gold against the Warriors unless you have a guy like Duncan or Utah's Carlos Boozer and even then it is not easy (Boozer had 12 points in 42 minutes in Utah's blowout win over Golden State last week). Dallas ended the quarter with another grind it out possession and Stackhouse managed to make a very difficult bank shot over two defenders as time ran out. In less than a minute, the Warriors scored two fast break layups, while Dallas' offense produced a Nowitzki jumper, an off balance miss by Harris and a very tough shot by Stackhouse. The only Dallas possession that had any fluidity was the first one, when Nowitzki caught the ball, made a quick faceup move and nailed a jumper. That is how he and Dallas need to play against Golden State and if they played that way the whole game they would win by 15 points--even with Stephen Jackson back in the lineup.

TNT's Mike Fratello correctly identified another problem that Dallas often has against Golden State. Early in the fourth quarter, Nowitzki was double teamed in the left corner and he passed to Trenton Hassell, who caught the ball and hesitated for a moment, seemingly unsure what to do. Fratello said that when Nowitzki passes out of the double-team whoever catches the ball must immediately attack the open seam in the zone defense and make the Warriors pay for trapping Nowitzki. This is a good example of how things can go wrong that the superstar gets blamed for by the casual fan but are not really his fault. Teams don't trap mediocre or bad players; they trap players who are dangerous. That is why Nowitzki and Duncan and Kobe Bryant and LeBron James see so many double-teams. Once a great player is being trapped he must quickly and accurately read the situation--the score, the time left on the shot clock, who is open--and decide whether to split the trap, shoot before it gets there or pass to a teammate. If the great player passes the ball, then it is up to his teammates to be productive and to use the resulting four on three advantage to score. In addition to playing too slow at times versus Golden State in last year's playoffs, Dallas also did not make the Warriors pay for putting two and sometimes three people on Nowitzki and that same hesitation was evident by Hassell on this particular play.

Dallas won this game but Barkley and Kenny Smith correctly noted that the margin for error was small, that Jackson may have made a difference and that the Warriors were one open Davis three pointer from possibly sending the game to overtime. Reggie Miller brought up the old cliche about styles making fights but in this case it is very true; Dallas is very uncomfortable doing what it needs to do to beat Golden State. Think of it this way: in a wide open, up and down game with a lot of three point shots, who do you think is going to shoot more accurately in the long run, Dirk Nowitzki or Baron Davis? Dallas should welcome the opportunity to turn the game into a shooting contest between those two players--not to mention the fact that Terry, Stackhouse, Howard and Harris also are more than capable of outshooting their Golden State counterparts.

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:09 AM

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