Wizards Have Yet to Reap Dividends From Westbrook Trade
There was much excitement about the Washington Wizards in some quarters early in the
season--media members love to run with any narrative that even
tangentially diminishes Russell Westbrook's value, such as asserting that the
Wizards "won" the trade that sent Westbrook from the Wizards to the Lakers in exchange for Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--but over the course of an 82
game season teams reveal who they really are, and the Wizards are who
intelligent analysts thought they were: a team that is not very good,
and a team that is not better than it was last season with Westbrook running the
show.
Kuzma, Harrell--who the Wizards sent to Charlotte in a midseason deal--and Caldwell-Pope proved to be so valuable to the Wizards that the Wizards went 35-47 to finish 12th in the 15 team Eastern Conference, eight games behind the 10th place finish required to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. Yes, Bradley Beal missed 42 games, but the Wizards were just 17-23 when he played.
Remember, the 2021 Wizards went 34-38, and then blew out the Indiana Pacers 142-115 in the Play-In Tournament to clinch the eighth seed. That was the first time the Wizards franchise won an elimination game since 1979. The Wizards even won a playoff game versus the number one seed Philadelphia 76ers.
The Wizards started just 7-17 during the 2021 season, but finished strongly, largely due to Westbrook's exceptional play. A major and underrated contribution that Westbrook provides is rebounding. Not only did Westbrook average a triple double in 2020-21 (22.2 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 11.7 apg) for the fourth time in five seasons--Oscar Robertson is the only other player in pro basketball history to average a triple double even once--but he ranked sixth in the NBA in rebounding. It is incorrect to assert that Westbrook pads his rebounding numbers and
that if he were replaced with a different player there would not be any
impact on team rebounding. Rebounds are not fungible, and it is unfortunate that many of the media members who demonstrate their bias and/or ignorance by bashing Westbrook vote for the NBA's official awards, including MVP and the All-NBA Team. During the 2020-21 season with Westbrook pounding the boards as a 6-3 point guard, the Wizards ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding. This season, the Wizards plummeted to 23rd in the NBA in rebounding.
It will be very interesting to track the Wizards moving forward and see just how much value is provided by the players that they acquired in the Westbrook trade. The only time the Wizards made the playoffs in the past four years is the one season that Westbrook spent with the team.
Labels: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers, Montrezl Harrell, Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 8:17 PM
What Impact Will Russell Westbrook Have on the L.A. Lakers?
The L.A. Lakers acquired 2017 NBA regular season MVP, two-time scoring champion, and three-time assist leader Russell Westbrook from the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Lakers also received three second round draft picks, while the Wizards received the draft rights to Isaiah Jackson.
The winner of an NBA trade is almost always the team that acquired the best player, so the Lakers are the landslide winner of this trade. Westbrook is the NBA's career triple double leader, the only player in NBA history to average a triple double in four different seasons (Oscar Robertson is the only other player to accomplish this feat even once), and the most prolific rebounding guard in pro basketball history.
Any notion that Westbrook has to change his game to fit in with other great players is easily refuted. In fact, his game elevates the performances of other great players. All-Star players who have had their best seasons playing alongside Westbrook include Kevin Durant (won the 2014 regular season MVP), Paul George (third in 2019 regular season MVP voting after averaging a career-high 28.0 ppg), and Bradley Beal (averaged a career-high 31.3 ppg and a career-high .485 FG% during his one season playing alongside Westbrook). Also, James Harden had the second highest scoring average of his career (34.3 ppg) during his one season playing alongside Westbrook.
When healthy, the LeBron James-Anthony Davis duo not only led the L.A. Lakers to the 2020 championship but they have helped the Lakers to post a gaudy .744 regular season winning percentage (equivalent to a 61-21 record for an 82 game season). Adding Westbrook's talents and drive to that duo creates a team that--if healthy--should be the favorite to win the title. The main questions/concerns for this team revolve around James and Davis, not Westbrook. James is not getting any younger, and he has been limited by
injuries in each of the past two seasons. Davis has always been an
injury-prone player. Whether or not the Lakers win the 2022 NBA title
will have much more to do with the health and availability of those
players than with any supposed flaws in Westbrook's game.
Westbrook will
show up, play hard, and be productive. He is an outstanding rebounder and open court player, so the Lakers could have one of the most fearsome transition offenses in recent memory: the Lakers at full strength should be a very good defensive team, and their top three players are excellent rebounders, so there should be many opportunities to get a stop, control the boards, and score quickly before the opponent can get into a set defense.
From a skill set standpoint, this trio is at least as good as the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh trio that won back to back titles with the Miami Heat while making four straight Finals appearances. James is not quite the athlete that he was back then, but when healthy he is still an MVP caliber player. Westbrook is more explosive than Wade was by that point in Wade's career, and Westbrook is a better rebounder and passer than Wade ever was. Davis is a better rebounder and rim protector than Bosh, and a better post scorer as well.
Some commentators have propagated the absurd notion that Buddy Hield would be a better fit with the Lakers than Westbrook. One writer even called Hield one of the greatest shooters in NBA history. Hield ranks 30th in career three point shooting percentage (.406), and he has never finished in the top five in that category in a season. There are 11 active players who have a higher career three point field goal percentage than Hield, including Davis Bertans and Joe Ingles. Wally Szczerbiak is just ahead of Hield on the career list, and Raja Bell is right behind Hield. No serious basketball observer would rank Bertans, Ingles, Szczerbiak or Bell among the greatest shooters in NBA history, and no serious basketball observer should rank Hield that highly either. Of course, three point field goal percentage is not the only way to measure shooting greatness--one has to consider a player's role and his shooting ability from other areas of the court--but Drazen Petrovic (.437), Stephen Curry (.433), Steve Nash (.428), and Klay Thompson (.419) are just a few of the players who rank ahead of Hield in this category and are demonstrably better overall shooters than he is.
Hield's .435 career field goal percentage is subpar for a perimeter player even after taking into account that more than half of his field goal attempts are from three point range. Hield has only made 509 free throws in five seasons, so he does not qualify to be listed among the career free throw percentage leaders, but even if he qualified his .863 free throw percentage would barely crack the top 40, just ahead of Luke Ridnour, John Long, and Jamal Crawford.
Hield is the kind of player who Kenny Smith calls "a looter in a riot" (though I cannot say that Smith has specifically put Hield in that category): in five NBA seasons, Hield has averaged 16.0 ppg in the regular season for teams that did not make a single postseason appearance.
Even if Hield were one of the greatest shooters of all-time, he still would not provide more value than a dynamic player like Westbrook who is a prolific scorer, an elite passer, and an elite rebounder. "Advanced basketball statistics" can be used to define Westbrook as an above average defender, an average defender, or a poor defender--which is yet another indication that "advanced basketball statistics" are not very useful for evaluating individual defense--but by any meaningful metric or evaluation method Westbrook is a better defender than Hield.
Westbrook played at an All-NBA level for four teams that advanced to the Western Conference Finals, and he has a great opportunity to be an All-NBA caliber performer for a Lakers team that wins a championship this season--assuming that James and Davis can stay healthy and that James can continue to defy the aging process by remaining an MVP caliber player.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Buddy Hield, Isaiah Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Montrezl Harrell, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 9:11 PM
The L.A. Lakers' "Small Ball" Lineup
Much has been made of the L.A. Lakers supposedly playing a "small ball" lineup in the final three games of the second round as the Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 4-1. The Lakers moved Markieff Morris to the starting lineup in place of JaVale McGee. The new lineup was no doubt smaller (McGee is 7-0; Morris is 6-8), but was it really a "small ball" lineup? Anthony Davis is 6-10, LeBron James is 6-9, Morris is 6-8, Danny Green is 6-6, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is 6-5; the "small ball" lineup averages 6-9 in the frontcourt, and averages nearly 6-8 overall, while the original starting lineup averages 6-9.5 in the frontcourt and a little over 6-8 overall. By comparison, the 1986 Boston Celtics--who went 67-15 and won the NBA title with the legendary Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parish frontcourt--averaged 6-10.5 in the frontcourt and 6-8 overall. No one would argue that those Celtics were a "small ball" team, yet the supposedly "small ball" Lakers are just as big as the 1986 Celtics.
The Rockets' starting lineup after going to "small ball" was Robert Covington (6-7), P.J. Tucker (6-5), Eric Gordon (6-3), James Harden (6-5), and Russell Westbrook (6-3). That lineup averages 6-5 in the frontcourt and 6-4.5 overall. The Rockets' tallest starter is one inch taller than the tallest Lakers' starting guard, and one inch shorter than the smallest frontcourt player in the Lakers' "small ball" lineup.
When media members assert that the Lakers went to "small ball" to beat the Rockets, that falsely suggests that the Lakers had to fundamentally change in order to prevail against the Rockets' gimmicky approach. The reality is that the Lakers can play very big, big, or small, and the Lakers chose to play big versus the Rockets. The Lakers dominated the Rockets in the paint while also shutting down the Rockets' three point shooting. Despite all of the hype and rhetoric about the value of "small ball," it remains true that size--specifically height--matters in the NBA.
Through the first three games of the Western Conference Finals versus the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers reinserted JaVale McGee into the starting lineup in place of Markieff Morris, though Morris has logged five more minutes than McGee. Despite the large number of three pointers launched by most NBA teams in recent years, to win an NBA championship it is still essential to have a paint presence at both ends of the court.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Markieff Morris
posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM
