Joel Embiid Returns, 76ers Stifle Heat in 99-79 Win
Joel Embiid had MVP level impact--if not MVP level numbers--in his return to action after suffering a concussion and orbital fracture, and it is not a coincidence that his Philadelphia 76ers won 99-79 after losing the first two games of this second round series versus the Miami Heat. Embiid finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 5-12 from the field, but he anchored a stout Philadelphia defense that held the Heat to 27-77 field goal shooting (.351) after the Heat shot .471 from the field in the previous two games. The 76ers shot 16-33 (.485) from three point range after shooting just .219 from beyond the arc in games one and two. Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green led the 76ers with 21 points each. All of Green's shot attempts were three pointers, and he connected on 7-9.
James Harden came close to "scheduling" the 2-11 "concert tour" date that he has "scheduled" in several previous playoff games and that I--only half jokingly--suggested that he will schedule for an elimination game in this series. Harden finished with 17 points on 4-11 field goal shooting. He also had eight rebounds, six assists, and seven turnovers, so his performance was all over the place with a mixture of the good, the bad, and the ugly. His plus/minus number of +27 during a game in which he shot .364 from the field, gave the ball to the opposing team seven times, and scored just two second half points is a great example of why plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should sometimes be taken with a grain of salt.
Before the game, Mike Wilbon, not known for making historically accurate or relevant comparisons, compared Embiid's imminent comeback to Willis Reed's comeback in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals. "Screamin' A" Smith used Embiid's comeback as an excuse to take yet another gratuitous shot at Ben Simmons, saying that Simmons would not have played if he had been in Embiid's shoes, acting as if Simmons missed games on a whim and not because of a back injury that required surgery. Sensible people understand that (1) playing in game three of a second round series is not as historically significant as playing in game seven of the NBA Finals, and (2) Simmons has nothing to do with this series so there is no reason to take a cheap shot smearing his name--and it is even more unseemly to do so in light of the reporting that Simmons has some mental health issues. Legitimate criticism of Simmons' performance and of his decision to not play at the start of the season when he was healthy are both fair, but why target a player who is not even participating in this series and who is recovering from back surgery?
Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 33 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, but his Heat teammates left their focus and their jump shots in South Beach. Most notably, Miami center Bam Adebayo feasted during Embiid's absence with a team-high 23.5 ppg on blistering .714 field goal shooting, but with Embiid in the building Adebayo's numbers shrank to nine points on 2-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers, with Embiid's presence in the paint, deserve more that a little credit for Miami's offensive offense, but it is also fair to say that the Heat uncharacteristically lacked game plan discipline, and that they played without their usual physicality.
The 76ers set the tone from the start, jumping out to an 18-8 lead, but they also committed six turnovers in the first quarter, and those miscues helped the Heat to trim the deficit to 21-17 by the end of the stanza. Harden led the way with nine first quarter points, while Embiid added eight points. Tyler Herro scored six first quarter points for the Heat, but then he disappeared for most of the rest of the game, finishing with 14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting.
The second quarter began in similar fashion, with the 76ers riding a 9-0 run to extend their lead to 30-17. Both teams continued to struggle to score, and the 76ers clung to a 41-34 halftime lead despite shooting 12-35 (.343) from the field and committing nine turnovers. Harden scored 15 points on 3-6 field goal shooting, but he did most of his damage from the free throw line (8-8). He looks like a different player when he earns--or, sometimes, is given--free points. Harden's four first half turnovers helped to keep the Heat within striking distance. Embiid shot just 2-7 from the field but he led both teams with seven rebounds, and his physical presence at both ends of the court made a significant impact. The Heat shot 14-43 (.326) from the field. Butler led the Heat in first half scoring (10 points) and rebounding (six), but he shot just 4-11 from the field. Herro did not score in the second quarter, missing all six of his field goal attempts.
The third quarter had the same script as the first two quarters, with the 76ers pushing their advantage to 51-37 before the Heat made a 20-6 run to tie the score at 57. Butler scored 14 points during that stretch. The 76ers led 68-65 heading into the fourth quarter. Green topped the 76ers in third quarter scoring (nine points on 3-3 field goal shooting). Harden, limited to six third quarter minutes due to foul trouble, did not score and missed both of his field goal attempts.
With the game up for grabs, the Heat squandered a great opportunity to take a 3-0 lead that would have, for all practical purposes, signified the end of the series. The Heat shot 3-15 from the field in the fourth quarter with a very unusual division of labor: Butler shot 3-3, and his teammates shot 0-12. Harden was the only player on either team who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes, so his bloated plus/minus total reflects his participation--or, to be precise, his attendance--during garbage time minutes as he contributed two points on 1-3 field goal shooting yet had a gaudy +17 plus/minus number in the final 12 minutes.
I did not expect or predict a sweep even if Embiid never played a minute in this series. It will be interesting to see if the 76ers can win game four to send this series back to Miami tied 2-2, or if the Heat will reignite their dormant offense to move within one win of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals.
Labels: Danny Green, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro
posted by David Friedman @ 10:52 PM
The L.A. Lakers' "Small Ball" Lineup
Much has been made of the L.A. Lakers supposedly playing a "small ball" lineup in the final three games of the second round as the Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 4-1. The Lakers moved Markieff Morris to the starting lineup in place of JaVale McGee. The new lineup was no doubt smaller (McGee is 7-0; Morris is 6-8), but was it really a "small ball" lineup? Anthony Davis is 6-10, LeBron James is 6-9, Morris is 6-8, Danny Green is 6-6, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is 6-5; the "small ball" lineup averages 6-9 in the frontcourt, and averages nearly 6-8 overall, while the original starting lineup averages 6-9.5 in the frontcourt and a little over 6-8 overall. By comparison, the 1986 Boston Celtics--who went 67-15 and won the NBA title with the legendary Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parish frontcourt--averaged 6-10.5 in the frontcourt and 6-8 overall. No one would argue that those Celtics were a "small ball" team, yet the supposedly "small ball" Lakers are just as big as the 1986 Celtics.
The Rockets' starting lineup after going to "small ball" was Robert Covington (6-7), P.J. Tucker (6-5), Eric Gordon (6-3), James Harden (6-5), and Russell Westbrook (6-3). That lineup averages 6-5 in the frontcourt and 6-4.5 overall. The Rockets' tallest starter is one inch taller than the tallest Lakers' starting guard, and one inch shorter than the smallest frontcourt player in the Lakers' "small ball" lineup.
When media members assert that the Lakers went to "small ball" to beat the Rockets, that falsely suggests that the Lakers had to fundamentally change in order to prevail against the Rockets' gimmicky approach. The reality is that the Lakers can play very big, big, or small, and the Lakers chose to play big versus the Rockets. The Lakers dominated the Rockets in the paint while also shutting down the Rockets' three point shooting. Despite all of the hype and rhetoric about the value of "small ball," it remains true that size--specifically height--matters in the NBA.
Through the first three games of the Western Conference Finals versus the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers reinserted JaVale McGee into the starting lineup in place of Markieff Morris, though Morris has logged five more minutes than McGee. Despite the large number of three pointers launched by most NBA teams in recent years, to win an NBA championship it is still essential to have a paint presence at both ends of the court.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Markieff Morris
posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM
Leonard Leads Balanced Attack As Raptors Subdue Warriors to Take 2-1 Lead
Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished for six assists while leading Toronto to a 123-109 victory over Golden State in game three of the NBA Finals. The Raptors reclaimed the home court advantage that they
lost in game two and they are now two wins away from dethroning the two-time defending champions. All five Toronto starters scored in double figures: Kyle Lowry finally showed up in the Finals (23 points, nine assists), Pascal Siakam had a nice all-around game (18 points, nine rebounds, six assists), Danny Green is no longer missing (18 points, 6-10 shooting from three point range) and Marc Gasol provided physical presence at both ends of the court (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists).
Stephen Curry scored a playoff career-high 47 points while also contributing eight rebounds and seven assists but only two other Warriors reached double figures in scoring: Draymond Green (17 points, seven rebounds, four assists) and Andre Iguodala (11 points, six rebounds, three assists). Kevin Durant remains out of action due to his calf injury and Klay Thompson was a late scratch after hurting his hamstring in game two. The Warriors also felt the absence of Kevon Looney, the center who has been ruled out for the rest of the series after injuring his shoulder.
DeMarcus Cousins, who had a strong performance in game two, looked like he was plodding through quicksand while wearing a 50 pound backpack: he scored four points on 1-7 field goal shooting in just 19 minutes. One of the biggest challenges when coming back from an injury after a long absence is to not only reclaim one's former excellence--we saw more than a glimpse of that in game two--but to maintain that level consistently with a body that is not yet 100% conditioned for extended NBA minutes. Cousins can and will still be a factor in this series but he is a wildcard factor, not a day in, day out factor like he was capable of being before he got hurt.
Curry scored 17 points in the first quarter en route to 25 points in the first half and then he scored 22 points in the second half. He is a great player who had a magnificent game but, that being said, we know that if Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook had scored 47 points on 14-31 field goal shooting while only one other teammate attempted more than 10 shots from the field then there would have been endless talk about Bryant or Westbrook shooting too much, not being efficient and not trusting their teammates. That talk would have been nonsense under any circumstances, and particularly with two All-Stars out of the lineup, so no one should nitpick at the margins of Curry's boxscore numbers. Just remember that the media does not apply the same standards to all players.
Speaking of double standards, the NBA must decide what is a foul on long jump shots and then the league must consistently enforce whatever it decides. Now, chaos reigns supreme.
James Harden flops all over the place and is rewarded. Other players are knocked down and nothing is called. Also, Thompson's injury happened when he was blatantly flopping to try to fool the referees into calling a foul; if the league established standards for shooting fouls and consistently followed those standards then there would be no incentive for Harden, Thompson and others to contort their bodies after shooting the ball as if they are suffering from some kind of serious neurological condition.
The headline in some game stories may relate to Stephen Curry's scoring or the absence of Golden State's injured players but no one should diminish what the Raptors have accomplished thus far or the possibility that the Raptors will indeed win the title; after all, Golden State's current run of excellence began in the 2015 Finals when they defeated a Cleveland team that was missing two All-Star caliber players, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love--two players who, not incidentally, were healthy in 2016 and who each played a major role in Cleveland's Finals victory versus the Warriors, the last time that Golden State lost a playoff series.
Injuries are part of the game, unfortunately, and, in any case, based on what we have been hearing about "gravity" for the past month one might have been forgiven for thinking that Stephen Curry could walk on water while creating enough space to carry any four players to victory. There have been a lot of "gravity" statistics bandied about and a lot of numbers cited pertaining to the Warriors' record with Curry and without Durant, so try this number on for size: the Warriors are 1-5 in their last six NBA Finals games without Durant. In case the tales of gravitational pull warped your memory, you will recall that the Warriors are 8-1 in their NBA Finals games with Durant, during which time they won two titles and he won two Finals MVPs.
Toronto quickly jumped out to a 17-7 lead in game three and the Raptors extended that to 28-16 late in the first quarter. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy correctly noted that the early story was "not about (Golden State) being depleted" but rather about "good offense beating bad defense." The Raptors are a championship caliber team and they would be a contending team in just about any season in recent NBA history, and they deserve credit for that, credit that should not be minimized by endless paeans to Curry or constant lamenting about the Warriors' injuries. One of the reasons that few teams have ever had a five year run like the Warriors' current five year run is that few teams have ever enjoyed as much relative health as the Warriors have--and the Warriors have also been the beneficiary of injuries to not just Irving and Love but also to Kawhi Leonard, whose San Antonio Spurs were beating the brakes off of the Warriors in game one of the 2017 Western Conference Finals before
Zaza Pachulia took Leonard out with a series-ending cheap shot. So, if you are going to say that the Warriors would have won the 2019 title but for the Durant and Thompson injuries then you also must entertain the notion that the Warriors may not have won the 2015 and 2017 titles had the injury gods not favored them in those years.
Leonard is a throwback superstar in all of the right ways. He has Julius Erving's big hands and gentlemanly demeanor combined with Scottie Pippen's suffocating defense and a free throw/three point shooting touch that neither Erving nor Pippen consistently demonstrated. That is not to say that Leonard is greater than either player--such comparisons generate more heat than light and are not the point of this article--but rather that he is a joy to watch for a basketball purist. Leonard makes the right play, he leads his team quietly but effectively and he does not show up the other team or the referees. At the 6:28 mark of the first half, he was whistled for a charge even though Draymond Green was backpedaling and clearly had at least one foot in the restricted area. Leonard did not yell or complain; he just headed back up court to play defense. I don't know why the San Antonio Spurs chose to publicly trash Leonard and poison their relationship with him but that looks like the biggest mistake by far of the Gregg Popovich era. Leonard is a great player at both ends of the court and if he stays healthy he will remain one of the league's best players for years to come.
ESPN's Jalen Rose often says that the "Third Quarter Warriors" are the NBA's 31st team but Leonard kept the "Third Quarter Warriors" in check in game three, scoring 15 points in the third stanza as the Raptors outscored the Warriors 36-31 to pad their lead and, although the Warriors kept battling, essentially clinch the win.
In the next 24-48 hours all of the smoke and mirrors about Durant's current condition will disappear. If there is any way that Durant can play in this series, he will be on the court in game four on Friday. If he does not play on Friday, I would be surprised to see him on the court before next season. I will be very surprised if Thompson does not play in game four and I think that there is a better than 50% chance that Durant plays as well. I suspect that the Warriors thought that they had a puncher's chance to win game three without both players and that they also thought that even if they lost then they could win three of the next four games if both players are available the rest of the way--or, Durant may have actually suffered a season-ending injury that the Warriors will not disclose until the season ends, which could be sooner than the Warriors and the bards of "gravity" ever suspected.
Labels: Danny Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, Stephen Curry, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM
Leonard-DeRozan Trade Raises More Questions Than it Answers
The long, bizarre Kawhi Leonard saga has come to a quick, bizarre end (or new beginning): the San Antonio Spurs have traded the disgruntled 2014 Finals MVP/two-time Defensive Player of the Year/two-time All-NBA First Team member to the Toronto Raptors (along with Danny Green) for four-time All-Star/2018 All-NBA Second Team member DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poetl and a protected 2019 first round draft pick.
There is often a rush to judgment about trades, when the reality is that it may not be possible to fairly evaluate the outcome of a trade for quite some time. If there is a "winner" in an NBA trade then it is usually the team that acquired the best individual player. Here, though, the won/loss calculation is affected by many variables/questions, including but not limited to (1) Leonard's health, (2) Leonard's attitude, (3) the role that the Spurs expect DeRozan to play and how willingly he accepts that role and (4) how one perceives the options that both teams had compared to the decisions that they made.
Leonard is generally considered to be a top five player and it is rare for such players to be traded during their primes but the Leonard situation is unusual, if not unique; a once beloved player who starred for perhaps the best organization in the NBA has been engaged in an extended feud with the franchise. Neither side has said much to clarify the situation but it appears that the main issues are (1) Leonard does not trust and/or disagrees with how the team's medical staff diagnosed/treated his leg injury and (2) Leonard is upset that the organization as a whole and/or individual players within the organization have publicly suggested that he could have returned from the injury faster than he did.
Neither Leonard individually nor the Spurs collectively are inclined to give lengthy, public statements, so we may never know exactly what happened. All that we know for sure is that Leonard no longer wanted to play for the Spurs. It has been reported that his preferred destination is the L.A. Lakers but the Spurs understandably did not want to trade their best player to their historic rival, particularly after that rival just acquired LeBron James.
Once Leonard made it clear that he did not want to stay in San Antonio, the Spurs did not have much leverage. They could not get equal value for Leonard, as the few players who are on par with him are not available. The Spurs could either have sought to bring back young players and/or several draft picks or they could do what they did: acquire an All-Star and attempt to maintain contender status, hopefully while adding/developing other players along the way.
The Spurs have been perennial contenders for the better part of the past two decades, so rebuilding is not in the franchise's DNA. However, it is far from certain that a team led by DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge can realistically expect to win a championship. That being said, the Spurs are almost certainly better off with DeRozan in the fold for the next three seasons as opposed to keeping Leonard for one year, only to likely have him depart without getting anything in return.
How you feel about this trade as a Toronto fan depends on how you perceive Toronto's recent playoff runs. If you believe that the Raptors would have made it to the NBA Finals multiple times if not for LeBron James, then you probably believe that the Raptors should have stood pat in the wake of James' departure to the Western Conference. If you believe that the Raptors were asking too much of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry and/or if you believe that DeRozan and Lowry have already peaked, then you probably believe that bringing Leonard in--even as a one year rental--is worth the risk. It is safe to assume that Masai Ujiri has already decided that the DeRozan-Lowry tandem is not a championship-winning duo, which is why Ujiri is willing to roll the dice with Leonard and then possibly rebuild if that does not work.
Spurs' fans are no doubt disappointed that the franchise could not salvage the relationship with Leonard but DeRozan is not a bad consolation prize. While DeRozan has yet to prove that he can lead a team to a championship, the Spurs are structured differently than most teams; DeRozan will not be expected to carry all or most of the load but rather to--as Bill Belichick would put it to his New England Patriots--do his job. If DeRozan scores 20-25 ppg efficiently and puts forth good effort defensively then he could be a key cog on a 50-55 win San Antonio team that would be in the mix for Western Conference supremacy.
This deal looks like a win-win, at least based on the realistic options
both teams faced: the Spurs transformed a disgruntled (and possibly not fully healthy) top five player
who was on his way out the door into a perennial All-Star, while the
Raptors acquired a top five player who could possibly lead the franchise
to its first NBA Finals appearance.
The two obvious X factors for this deal are (1) Leonard's health and (2) Leonard's attitude. It is far from clear how serious Leonard's injury was and where he is in the rehabilitation process. It is also not clear if/when Leonard will report to Toronto and how committed he will be to leading the Raptors. If Leonard is still injured or if he has a bad attitude about the deal then the Raptors are much worse off in the short run--but that is a risk that Ujiri is willing to take based, presumably, on his belief that the Raptors had already gone as far as they could as previously constructed.
Labels: Danny Green, DeMar DeRozan, Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 6:20 PM
Harden Comes Up Empty in Clutch as Rockets Fall to Spurs in Game Five
The San Antonio Spurs persevered without the injured Kawhi Leonard down the stretch to defeat the Houston Rockets 110-107 in overtime and take a 3-2 series lead. Leonard led the Spurs with 22 points and a game-high 15 rebounds but he sprained his left ankle in the second half. Leonard already was struggling with a right knee injury and he tried to play through the sprained ankle as well but he could not put weight on his left leg, forcing Coach Gregg Popovich to leave him on the bench for most of the fourth quarter and during the entire overtime. Patty Mills scored 20 points as the starting point guard in place of the injured Tony Parker and LaMarcus Aldridge had 18 points and 14 rebounds but the overtime stars were Danny Green and Manu Ginobili. Green finished with 16 points, including seven of the Spurs' nine overtime points. Ginobili had 12 points, seven rebounds and five assists in addition to making perhaps the biggest play of the game by blocking James Harden's game-tying three point attempt as time expired.
Harden finished with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. That looks like a great line, but he also had nine turnovers and shot just 4-15 from three point range. Those numbers help explain why the Rockets outscored the Spurs by three points when Harden was on the bench but were outscored by six points when he was on the court. Harden was awful down the stretch when the game was up for grabs: he committed an offensive foul on Houston's last possession in regulation and then he shot 0-3 from the field with three turnovers in overtime.
It is fitting that Ginobili made the big play against Harden, because Ginobili is in many ways the anti-Harden. Ginobili made a decision early in his career to sacrifice individual glory for team success, while Harden has spent the past few years running away from and/or running off every one of his star teammates, including Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Dwight Howard. Almost four years ago to the day, I wrote an article titled
The Difference Between Being the Third Option and Being the First Option and I compared Harden to Ginobili:
Ginobili has won three NBA championships so far and he has earned two
All-Star selections, two All-NBA selections and the 2008 Sixth Man
Award; combined with his stellar FIBA career, those honors and
accomplishments may be enough for Ginobili to be inducted in the
Basketball Hall of Fame.
Harden won the Sixth Man Award in 2012 and if he had stayed in Oklahoma
City he likely would have earned at least one All-Star nod. Even if he
and the Thunder would not have beaten Miami this season or next season,
time would have been on their side; the young Thunder would have peaked
just as the Heat's core players entered their 30s and started to
decline.
Is getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs every year as
"The Man" better than being the third option on a perennial championship
contender? Ginobili has no reason to regret his answer to that
question; five years from now it will be interesting to reevaluate
Harden's answer.
Unlike Harden, Ginobili can make game-winning plays at either end of the court. Ginobili's role at 39 years old is obviously vastly diminished from his role during his prime but he never whines or complains; he wants to be part of a winning team and he is not concerned about individual glory.
Houston seized home court advantage by winning game one in San Antonio and caught two huge breaks with Parker's season-ending injury and Leonard's game five injuries but now the Rockets must win at home in game six and on the road in game seven in order to advance. Game five winners in 2-2 series prevail more than 80% of the time, so when the wheels fell off for Harden down the stretch the outcome of the series was likely decided. You cannot feel too badly for Harden, though, because he has exactly what he wanted when he rejected Oklahoma City's contract offer five years ago: big money, big stats and everything revolves around him. Winning a championship is a tangential concern for Harden. LeBron James and Kevin Durant can be rightfully criticized for their free agency decisions but no one can doubt that each player thought at the time that he was making a move that maximized his chance of winning a title, whether or not one believes that each player could have won a title by remaining with his original team. Harden fled from a team with two MVP caliber players so that he could receive all of the shine in Houston and that was most assuredly not a choice that maximized his chance to win a championship.
Game five versus the Spurs was a quintessential Harden performance and a prime example of
what
I have been writing about him for years: he is a talented player who is
not well-suited to being the best player on a championship team.
Harden's supporters will tout his points, assists and alleged
"efficiency," but the real story is that with the game and the series
hanging in the balance he fell apart. The lasting image of this series will either be Ginobili's block or perhaps Harden blaming one of his late-game turnovers on Clint Capela while the Spurs headed downcourt for a fast break basket. That play reminded me of two very different situations involving two all-time greats: (1) Rookie of the Year David Thompson cried after a game in the 1976 ABA Finals when he felt that the officials should have called a foul on one of his missed shots but Julius Erving was incredulous at that reaction, stating that when he missed a shot as a rookie he would just go get the ball and then score; (2) when Michael Jordan, near the end of his career and basically playing on one leg, thought that he had been fouled by Ron Mercer, Jordan
raced downcourt, blocked Mercer's layup from behind, pinned it to the glass, caught the ball and barked something at Mercer.
With the game on the line, do you make it happen or do you watch it happen?
Labels: Danny Green, Houston Rockets, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM
LeBron James Dominates as Miami Heat Win Second Straight Championship
LeBron James authored one of the greatest seventh game performances in NBA Finals history, winning his second consecutive NBA Finals MVP and his second consecutive championship after carrying the Miami Heat to a 95-88 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. James scored an NBA Finals career-high 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting (including 5-10 from three point range), grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds and passed for a team-high four assists. James tied Tommy Heinsohn's 1957 record for the most points scored in an NBA Finals game seven by a member of the winning team. James played a game-high 45 minutes and he guarded multiple positions, including spending a lot of time smothering San Antonio's All-Star point guard Tony Parker. James hit the jump shot that put the Heat up 92-88 with :27.9 remaining and then he stole the ball before making two free throws to clinch the win. He averaged 25.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg and 7.0 apg in the NBA Finals, leading his team in all three categories by wide margins; James averaged 25-10-7 in the NBA Finals for the second consecutive year--an NBA Finals stat line that no other player has equaled even once--and he joined Bill Russell and Michael Jordan as the only players who won both a championship and the regular season MVP in consecutive seasons. James averaged 25.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg and 6.6 apg during the 2013 playoffs while shooting .491 from the field, .375 from three point range and .777 from the free throw line.
James' production can best be described by two words: "great" and "necessary." There are many perks, awards and honors that come with being the best basketball player in the world but that status also carries with it a tremendous responsibility, something that James understands much better now than he did earlier in his career. Great players do not put up ordinary statistics in the NBA Finals; great players dominate the NBA Finals and impose their will on the opposing team. In the first three games of the 2013 NBA Finals, James scored 18, 17 and 15 points as the Heat fell behind two games to one; in the final four games of the series, James scored 33, 25, 32 and 37 points as the Heat won three times to capture the title. There are many statistics and strategies from this series that can be discussed and analyzed but the bottom line is that when James was a 16.7 ppg scorer in the first three games the Heat were headed for a very disappointing loss but when James averaged 31.8 ppg in the final four games he carried the Heat to the championship. James is an all-around player who can rebound, pass and defend at a very high level but his greatest attribute--no matter what anyone says--is that he is one of the best scorers in pro basketball history.
James' primary job is not to pass the ball or defer to others; his
primary job is to score at least 25 ppg. The same thing is true of
Kobe Bryant--and every time Bryant led the Lakers to the NBA Finals after
the creation of this web site I wrote that he needed to average at least
25 ppg while shooting at least .450 from the field: that is the standard
and that standard has nothing to do with "loving" one player or
"hating" another player. James averaged 25.3 ppg on .447 field goal shooting versus the Spurs and the Heat did not clinch the championship until the final seconds of the seventh game at home--and they easily could have lost the championship in the final seconds of game six. James had a great series by the standards of most NBA players but he also barely met the 25 ppg/.450 threshold and that is why his team barely won; if he had performed better in the first three games then this series would not have lasted seven games but if he had not stepped up to the challenge in the final four games then the Heat would have lost. That is part of the confusing legacy of James: he is a great player who has already won two championships and may very well win several more championships but he has a strange propensity to not play his game when the stakes are highest. Maybe the glimpses he provides of his talent raise expectations to unreasonable levels--but I don't fault James for missing shots in the first three games as much as I fault him for not being aggressive enough. In the fourth quarter of game six and during most of game seven, James played decisively: he shot open jump shots without hesitation and he relentlessly drove to the hoop whenever he had the opportunity to do so. Any objective observer has to admit that James played very tentatively during the first three games, hesitating to shoot open jumpers and shying away from attacking the hoop.
Despite all of the talk about James not receiving enough help during his Cleveland years, consider these numbers: his 2007 team that reached the NBA Finals had three players who averaged between 11.3 and 12.6 ppg during the postseason, his 2008 team had three players who averaged between 10.8 and 13.1 ppg during the postseason, his 2009 team had three players who averaged between 10.5 and 16.3 ppg during the postseason and his 2010 team had three players who averaged between 11.5 and 15.3 ppg during the postseason. What about this year's Miami Heat featuring two perennial All-Stars other than James plus future Hall of Famer Ray Allen? Three Heat players averaged between 10.2 ppg and 15.9 ppg during the playoffs. Only four Heat players other than James scored in game seven and one of them, Chris Andersen, contributed just three points; both Chris Bosh and Ray Allen did not score, though Bosh made some key defensive plays and Allen matched James with four assists. No matter how you slice the numbers or analyze the skill sets of the Cleveland players and the Miami players, the reality is that for a team to win a championship the best player must not only post great numbers but he also must dominate the action down the stretch of close games. James has won two championships in Miami after failing to win a championship in Cleveland because James has improved his skill set, strengthened his mindset and committed himself to consistently dominating playoff games versus elite competition. If he had posted a 20-10-10 triple double in game seven that might have looked great on paper to some people but the Heat would have lost; James has an obligation to be a big-time scorer and he fulfilled that obligation in the
2012 NBA Finals and the 2013 NBA Finals after failing to do so in the
2011 NBA Finals and the
2010 Eastern Conference semifinals. Revisionist historians are eager to say that James has now refuted his critics but the truth is that James heeded some very valid critiques, worked hard to improve himself as a player and as a person and now he is reaping the rewards of that self-improvement.
Dwyane Wade was ineffective--and at times looked indifferent--during most of the 2013 playoffs but he played with tremendous energy and aggressiveness in game seven. He not only scored 23 points on 11-21 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds but he also made several hustle plays. For someone who says that he does not talk about injuries, Wade talks about his injuries a lot but I do not doubt that he really is injured and he deserves credit for saving his best for last, even if it seems like maybe he could have done a little more earlier in the playoffs; some people act like it is a crime against humanity to criticize Wade but, even after he boosted his statistics with his performances in games six and seven, he averaged a career-low 15.9 ppg during the 2013 playoffs and he only surpassed the 20 point plateau four times in his 22 playoff games.
Chris Bosh shot 0-5 from the field but he grabbed seven rebounds and he played excellent defense; the Heat left him on an island one on one versus Duncan, which enabled the Heat's perimeter players to smother the Spurs' perimeter players and hold them to 6-19 (.316) three point shooting. Bosh rarely touched the ball on offense, so it is not fair to judge his performance based on his scoring; on one play he approached Wade to set a screen but Wade turned the ball over and then glared at Bosh for daring to venture over to the strong side of the court when Wade wanted to go one on one. The Heat do not utilize Bosh like the eight-time All-Star that he is but they instead treat him like a glorified Horace Grant, someone who is expected to do the dirty work and occasionally hit a spot up jumper.
Championship teams often have a role player who makes a major, unexpected contribution during their playoff run; Shane Battier put his name alongside John Paxson, Steve Kerr and Derek Fisher by scoring 18 points while shooting 6-8 from three point range, tying the record for most three pointers made in a seventh game of the NBA Finals. Battier received the dreaded DNP-CD (Did Not Play--Coach's Decision) during
Miami's 99-76 game seven win against Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals but when Coach Erik Spoelstra called Battier's number in this game seven Battier responded with a clutch performance.
Tim Duncan had a very good overall game--24 points on 8-18 field goal shooting, 12 rebounds, four steals--but he admitted that he will forever be haunted by his critical late game mistakes, including two missed shots from point blank range that could have tied the score. Tony Parker looked completely drained, which is what happens when a small player is hounded by a much bigger and more athletic defender--especially if that defender is LeBron James. Parker had 10 points on 3-12 field goal shooting, plus four assists and three steals; he is an excellent player and he has been a key member of the ensemble cast for three San Antonio championship teams but--
as Bill Russell mentioned before game six--Duncan is San Antonio's most valuable player. Anyone who doubts that
size matters in pro basketball or who thinks that a small point guard can be the best player on a championship team should look very carefully at what happened in the final two games of this series: James dominated at both ends of the court and played a major role in shutting down Parker, while Parker had very little impact offensively or defensively. Size is significant not just because it affects what a player can and cannot do in a game but also because a smaller player is more likely to become worn down by the end of a long series than a bigger player is.
Manu Ginobili's overall FIBA/NBA resume will likely earn him induction to the Basketball Hall of Fame but the 2013 NBA Finals will not provide many clips for his career highlight video. He finished game seven with 18 points, five assists, four turnovers and a +6 plus/minus rating, providing an excelllent example of how misleading statistics can be; with the result up for grabs in the final 7:14, Ginobili committed three turnovers--including fumbling an easily catchable pass out of bounds plus firing two horribly off target passes that were easily stolen--and shot an air ball from three point range. Ginobili's butter fingers had a lot to do with San Antonio fumbling away the championship, regardless of what the numbers might suggest.
The good news for every future Hall of Famer in this series not named LeBron James is that so much attention is focused on James' legacy that few people care that much about the performances of any other player; Parker's late-series fade, Duncan's miscues at the end of game seven and Ginobili's atrocious ballhandling throughout the series will all be ignored by the vast majority of people who are trying to determine where James ranks among the greatest players in pro basketball history. I focus a lot of my coverage on James, too, but the performances of Wade, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili should at least be mentioned. Wade's excellent showings in games six and seven elevated his series scoring average to 19.6 ppg and he shot a very solid .476 from the field; he was not dominant but overall he was an effective second option. Duncan averaged 18.9 ppg and a series-high 12.1 rpg while shooting .490 from the field, which is about as much as can be reasonably expected from a 37 year old post player--and if the Spurs had closed out game six then he would have deserved serious NBA Finals MVP consideration. Parker averaged 15.7 ppg and 6.4 apg while shooting .412 from the field, numbers that are not good enough considering his role. Ginobili is only asked to be the third scoring option and second playmaking option but he averaged just 11.6 ppg (fifth on the team) and 4.3 apg (second on the team) while shooting .433 from the field and leading the NBA Finals with 3.1 turnovers per game despite only ranking ninth in the series in minutes played.
Two other Spurs should be mentioned. Kawhi Leonard tied James with 45 minutes played, finishing with 19 points and a game-high 16 rebounds; Leonard is an excellent rebounder/defender whose offensive game is still developing. Danny Green set three point shooting records during the first five games of this series but the Heat made a concerted effort to deny him open looks in games six and seven. Green scored five points on 1-12 field goal shooting in game seven; the Heat forced him to dribble instead of allowing him to catch and shoot and he looked extremely uncomfortable trying to make plays with a live dribble.
This series was notable not only for its great drama and high level of competitiveness but also because it thoroughly refuted the idea that it is necessary to hate and/or disrespect an opponent; after game seven, both teams demonstrated commendable sportsmanship as the players and coaching staffs exchanged hugs, handshakes and congratulations/consoling words. During the series there were no flagrant fouls, no technical fouls and no trash talk; rivalries are formed by great players making great plays, not by players doing a lot of extracurricular nonsense.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Shane Battier, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 6:20 AM
Heat Force Seventh Game After Spurs Squander Late Fourth Quarter Lead
"Our world's out of order. All I see is missed opportunity."--Hall & Oates, "Missed Opportunity"
The San Antonio Spurs are
renowned for their crisp execution and praised for their championship pedigree but in game six of the NBA Finals they squandered a golden opportunity to win the fifth championship of the Tim Duncan era--and now the Miami Heat are one victory away from claiming the second championship of the Big Three era. The Spurs led 94-89 with :28 left in regulation after Manu Ginobili split a pair of free throws, a time/score situation that simply requires making free throws, not giving the opposing team extra possessions via turnovers/offensive rebounds and not giving up open three pointers; if the Spurs had executed those basic fundamentals for less than 30 seconds then they would have won the 2013 NBA championship. Instead, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a LeBron James three pointer, Kawhi Leonard split a pair of free throws, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a Ray Allen three pointer and the game went to overtime after Tony Parker missed a tough, low percentage fadeaway jumper as time expired in regulation. The Spurs scored first in overtime and eventually took a three point lead but then they missed three straight shots and suffered a shot clock violation; the Heat finished the game with a 6-0 run and emerged with a 103-100 win. Game to game momentum has been non-existent in this series as the teams have alternated victories but this is a devastating loss for the Spurs and the last time a road team won game seven of the NBA Finals Jimmy Carter was President (Washington 105, Seattle 98 in 1978), so on Thursday the Spurs will face a daunting task.
LeBron James authored yet another Finals performance that will baffle both his critics and his admirers; he scored 14 points on 3-12 field goal shooting in the first three quarters and he seemed to be on pace for one of the worst performances by a reigning MVP in a possible elimination game--but then he took over the game in the fourth quarter, scoring 16 points on 7-11 field goal shooting as the Heat rallied from a 75-65 deficit. James finished with 32 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals while shooting 11-26 from the field. He is just the fourth player in NBA Finals history to post a 30-10-10 triple double, joining Jerry West, James Worthy and Charles Barkley. Without James' poor shooting and tentative play in the first three quarters the Heat probably would not have trailed by as many as 13 points but without his forceful, determined and skillful play in the fourth quarter the Heat would not have been able to come back. So what should we make of James? He is a tremendously talented player who has had many great playoff performances, who sometimes becomes passive in the biggest games and who learned last year how to snap out of that passivity to reassert the aggressiveness that makes him unstoppable; no player and no defensive scheme can stop James when he attacks the hoop with force--
period. Anyone who thinks that James did not quit versus Dallas during the
2011 NBA Finals and versus Boston in the
2010 NBA playoffs should watch the fourth quarter of game six of the 2013 NBA Finals:
that is what LeBron James looks like when he is playing hard, when he is fully engaged mentally, physically and emotionally--and that kind of effort (not necessarily those numbers but that energy level, that kind of relentless determination to attack the defense) should be expected of James all the time, because that is what Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--the two wing players who led teams to multiple championships in the past 20 years--delivered. If LeBron James wants to be mentioned in the same breath with those players then that is the standard--not statistics, not awards but rather a consistently high effort level that uplifts his teammates and deflates the opposing team. Prior to the game, NBA TV's Greg Anthony said, "Everyone says how well they are defending LeBron. LeBron is defending LeBron." Does anyone really believe that Boris Diaw can stay in front of LeBron James? Does anyone really believe that any of the Spurs' wing players can guard LeBron James in the post? The Spurs' defensive scheme is to concede two point jump shots to James and hope that James either misses those shots or refuses to even take those shots; there is no plan to stop James when he drives to the basket with a full head of steam and looks to score instead of looking to pass: James did that for the whole fourth quarter and there was nothing that the Spurs could do to slow him down. If James does that in game seven then the Heat will win--and if he had done that more often in the first five games then this series would already have been over.
For a half, it looked like Tim Duncan was the player who was going to deliver a legendary performance; in the first 24 minutes he produced 25 points (a personal high for a half in a Finals game) on 11-13 field goal shooting and he grabbed eight rebounds as the Spurs took a 50-44 lead. Could the 37 year old Duncan really produce a 40-20 game to clinch his fifth title? The predictable answer to that question was, "No"; he finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds and did not score after the third quarter--but Anthony correctly noted that a 30-17 stat line is more than the Spurs could have reasonably expected from Duncan and the Spurs needed to receive more production from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Parker scored 19 points and passed for eight assists but he shot just 6-23 from the field. Ginobili had nine points, four rebounds, three assists, a career-high eight turnovers and a mind-boggling -21 plus/minus rating, by far the worst of any player in this game.
Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra took a page out of Phil Jackson's book; when Jackson coached the Lakers against the Spurs he preferred to single cover Duncan and blanket San Antonio's perimeter players, figuring that Duncan would not score 40 or 50 points and that the Spurs could not win without getting huge production from their three point shooters. Duncan put up great numbers in game six against single coverage but the Spurs shot just 5-18 from three point range (.278). Danny Green--whose record-setting three point shooting in the first five games generated some Finals MVP consideration--scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting, including 1-5 from three point range.
Meanwhile, the Heat shot 11-19 from behind the arc (.579), with Mario Chalmers leading the way (20 points, 4-5 three point shooting). Dwyane Wade had a quiet game (14 points on 6-15 field goal shooting, four rebounds, four assists) and he was on the bench when the Heat made their fourth quarter run. Chris Bosh had solid numbers (10 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, two blocked shots) but he had an impact far greater than those statistics suggest; his defensive versatility played a huge role as Miami outscored San Antonio 30-20 in the fourth quarter, he collected the offensive rebound that led to Allen's game-tying three pointer and he blocked Green's three point attempt as time expired in overtime. Allen finished with nine points on 3-8 field goal shooting but he scored seven crucial points late in the game: in addition to the huge three pointer at the end of regulation, he converted a drive to cut San Antonio's lead to 100-99 and he made two clutch free throws to put Miami up 103-100 with 1.9 seconds left in overtime.
The Spurs have to be very careful to make sure that game seven does not get out of hand, because it is easy to picture a scenario in which James runs wild (literally and figuratively), Chalmers hits some three pointers and the Heat cruise to victory; the Heat have played two game sevens in the Big Three era and they
won both by double digits (
99-76 versus Indiana in 2013,
101-88 versus Boston in 2012). On the other hand, if James plays like he did in the first three quarters of game six and the Spurs execute at their normal efficiency level then the Spurs could put themselves in position to transform their game six collapse from a huge missed opportunity into a historical footnote.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, Ray Allen, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 6:28 AM
Manu the Magnificent: Revived Ginobili Spurs San Antonio to 3-2 Finals Lead
Manu Ginobili made his first start of the 2012-13 season very memorable, scoring 24 points and passing for 10 assists as the San Antonio Spurs defeated the Miami Heat 114-104 to move within one victory of seizing their fifth championship in the Tim Duncan era. The Spurs never trailed and they led by as many as 20 points before a late Heat rally made the final score more respectable. Tony Parker scored a game-high 26 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and he had five assists. Danny Green scored 24 points, grabbed six rebounds, blocked three shots and set the all-time NBA Finals record for most three pointers made in a single series (25, three more than Ray Allen made in the 2008 NBA Finals). Tim Duncan authored a very efficient performance, scoring 17 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, snaring a game-high 12 rebounds and blocking three shots; he controlled the paint at both ends of the court, drawing double-teams to make it easier for the Spurs' perimeter shooters to get open and challenging Heat players who drove to the basket. Kawhi Leonard added 16 points and eight rebounds; he is the modern-day Jamaal Wilkes--not exceptional in any skill set area but also not possessing any skill set weaknesses and very content to make winning plays at both ends of the court without drawing attention to himself.
LeBron James had a solid stat line--25 points, eight assists, six rebounds, four steals--but he shot just 8-22 from the field and never definitively asserted himself as the best player on the court. James continued the pattern he established in game four, attacking the hoop more than he did in the first three games of the series, but he missed several shots in the paint and he was much less effective in the second half when Boris Diaw proved to be a surprisingly
effective primary defender against him. After sleepwalking through most of the postseason, Dwyane Wade played well for the second game in a row, scoring 25 points while also tying Ginobili for game-high honors with 10 assists. James and Wade shot just 10-26 in the paint, their worst combined field goal percentage in the paint during their three playoff runs together. Wade has struggled to finish at the rim throughout the postseason but James' misses are harder to explain; Green has demonstrated an uncanny ability to anticipate James' moves and either block James' shot or else force James to awkwardly alter his delivery but it was shocking to see James come up short on so many point blank shots: it is hard to believe that anyone can stop James if he consistently posts up and makes quick moves to the hoop (as opposed to holding the ball, waiting for a double-team and looking to pass).
Ray Allen contributed 21 points, including 15 points in the fourth quarter. Chris Bosh scored 16 points, tied James for the team lead with six rebounds and led the Heat with a +7 plus/minus rating; the plus/minus rating can be very "noisy" in small sample sizes but in this particular case I believe that the rating accurately reflects that Bosh had a positive impact even though his box score numbers do not jump off of the page: the Heat's offense revolves around James and Wade so much that the eight-time All-Star Bosh has been transformed into a glorified Horace Grant shooting spot up jumpers but Bosh is an efficient scorer who also is a mobile and versatile defender. It is interesting that the commentators who criticize Kobe Bryant for supposedly not passing the ball frequently enough to Pau Gasol do not have anything to say about the way that the Heat utilize Bosh on offense; Bosh was a more prolific scorer as the number one option in Toronto than Gasol was as the number one option in Memphis, so anyone who believes that the Lakers' offense should revolve around Gasol is being hypocritical if he does not say the same thing about Bosh and the Heat's offense (I do not think that the Lakers' offense should revolve around Gasol nor do I think that the Heat's offense should revolve around Bosh but I also think it is evident that playing with Bryant enhanced Gasol's individual numbers while leading to team success; the jury is still out about how playing with James and Wade has impacted Bosh).
Ginobili's 24 points not only set a season-high but also nearly matched his total for the first four games of the series (30). Ginobili made an immediate impact, hitting the first shot of the game--a long jumper just inside the three point line--before assisting on each of San Antonio's next two hoops and then making two free throws. Ginobili's performance--and the inevitable media reaction to it--reinforces
a point that I made during the San Antonio-Golden State series: "As an injury prone third option, Ginobili is not expected to put up big scoring totals on a nightly basis; he can be the hero--like when he hit the game-winning shot in the series opener--but, no matter how poorly he plays, he will not be the goat unless he makes a serious mental error during a crucial possession down the stretch: in contrast, Tony Parker
and Tim Duncan are expected to be highly productive every game and a team's first option (Parker and Duncan are options 1A and 1B for the Spurs) cannot have an off half, much less an off game. The first option is the focal point of his team's offense and the main concern for the opposing team's defense." Even in his prime, Ginobili was never a player who could average 40 mpg and consistently put up big numbers--and that is what "stat gurus" failed to understand when they looked at his per minute numbers/"advanced basketball statistics" and compared Ginobili to Kobe Bryant. Ginobili has always been a second or third option, a spark plug, a great resource to have but not a franchise player. The same is true of James Harden, which is why
Houston's record barely improved despite all of the hype about Harden's impact this season. Ginobili's team can win a championship with him having one or two good games out of six or seven in the NBA Finals; Kobe Bryant's team could never win a championship under those conditions, nor can LeBron James' team win a championship under those conditions.
Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra changed his starting lineup for game four by replacing Udonis Haslem with Mike Miller and even though Miller did not make much of a statistical contribution his presence as a three point shooting threat spread out San Antonio's defense, creating driving lanes that James and Wade exploited. San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich initially stayed with his regular starting lineup but after less than a minute elapsed he also went small, putting Gary Neal in for Tiago Splitter. Since late last season, the Heat have generally done well with their small lineups whether or not the opposing team also went small and this again proved to be the case in game four--but in game five the Spurs used their small lineup more effectively at both ends of the court: on defense, the slow-footed but crafty Diaw kept James out of the paint for the most part in the second half, while on offense the Spurs relentlessly attacked Miller by either isolating him or else setting screens that forced switches so that Miller had to guard a quick ballhandler who had a live dribble. By attacking Miller and exploiting the Heat's lack of size in the paint, the Spurs shredded the Heat's usually stout defense, shooting 42-70 (.600) from the field; that high field goal percentage mitigated the effect of the Spurs' 18 turnovers. The Heat gave up 114 points or more only three times during the 82 game regular season--and two of those three games went to overtime. This was just the third time in 21 playoff games that the Heat gave up more than 100
points--but it has happened twice in the past three games, as the Spurs scored 113 points in
their game three win.
The Spurs are one of the few teams that can be equally effective with a big lineup or a small lineup; the Indiana Pacers' big lineup gave the Heat fits in the Eastern Conference Finals but the Heat closed out that series by relying heavily on James and Wade to relentlessly attack the hoop on offense while also creating havoc all over the court on defense: the Pacers were unable to impose their will with their big lineup nor were they able to put an effective small lineup on the court to match up with the Heat. The Spurs can play a methodical, half court game with Duncan and Splitter but they can also go small and play at a fast tempo; throughout game five, Popovich exhorted his team to push the ball up the court regardless of whether the Heat scored or not--and it is very rare that a Miami opponent is comfortable playing as fast or even faster than Miami.
In my
series preview I picked the Heat but I also outlined the Spurs' correct anti-Heat game plan: "... take care of the basketball, utilize their advantage in the post with Tim Duncan and break down the Heat's perimeter defense with the driving of Tony Parker/Manu Ginobili; Duncan's post ups and the Parker/Ginobili drives will create open three point shots if the Heat are forced to collapse their defense into the paint. Defensively, the Spurs must force LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot contested two point jump shots." The Spurs have executed this plan well enough to win three games. Before the series began I predicted that the Spurs would have to win twice in Miami to dethrone the 2012 NBA Champions and that is indeed the case; I am still skeptical that the Heat will lose two games at home in one series but I am a bit less skeptical now than I was before the series started.
Green is the Spurs' leading scorer in the Finals (18.0 ppg) and he has set three point shooting records but he is not a one-dimensional player: he also ranks third on the team in rebounding (4.0 rpg) and second in blocked shots (1.6 bpg); barring a significant performance by another Spur in game six and/or game seven, if San Antonio wins the championship then Green has to receive serious consideration for Finals MVP (I think that Duncan's impact is almost as underrated this time as it was in the 2007 Finals but I realize that unless he puts up at least 30 points and 15 rebounds in the clinching game he will not receive any Finals MVP votes). One could make a joke about Green having to leave Cleveland and get away from LeBron James to reach his full potential--but, in all seriousness, think about what a stunning turn of events we may be on the verge of witnessing (to borrow a word formerly used to describe James' performances in Cleveland): this would be like Mike McGee leaving the Lakers in the mid-1980s, landing with another team and then winning Finals MVP honors in a head to head duel with Magic Johnson or like Rick Carlisle doing the same thing versus Larry Bird or like Craig Hodges taking a Finals MVP away from Michael Jordan. If this happens it would not nullify all of James' great accomplishments--but, to put it mildly, it would not enhance James' legacy.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 4:19 AM
Three-mendous: Spurs' Long Range Barrage Buries Heat
The San Antonio Spurs dominated the boards 52-36 and rained down an unprecedented three point barrage to blow out the Miami Heat 113-77 and take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals. The Spurs shot 16-32 from beyond the arc, setting an NBA Finals single game record for three pointers made. This was the worst playoff loss in Miami Heat history, the worst loss in the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh Big Three Era and the third worst loss in NBA Finals history. Danny Green scored a game-high 27 points while shooting 9-15 from the field, including 7-9 from three point range; he has shot 16-23 (.696) from three point range overall and he is the leading scorer in the series (18.7 ppg). Gary Neal scored 24 points while shooting 9-17 from the field, including 6-10 from three point range. Kawhi Leonard contributed 14 points, 12 rebounds and four steals. Tim Duncan had a solid performance: 12 points, 14 rebounds, two blocked shots, 5-11 field goal shooting. It is easy to overlook Duncan when three point bombs are exploding from every direction but his defense in the paint and his post up presence on offense should not be ignored or diminished. Manu Ginobili added seven points and six assists; his deft passing played a role in San Antonio's perimeter shooting prowess. Tony Parker only scored six points but he had a game-high eight assists and just two turnovers before missing most of the fourth quarter due to a hamstring injury; he is scheduled to have an MRI on Wednesday morning and is listed as questionable for game four. If Parker cannot play then that could turn out to be a bigger story than anything else that happened in game three.
Dwyane Wade played very aggressively in the first quarter and then he disappeared for the rest of the game; that has been his pattern recently and it does not seem likely that this will change. He finished with a team-high 16 points (including eight in the first quarter) on 7-15 field goal shooting, five assists, four steals and no rebounds. Whether his leaping ability has been limited by injury or taken away by Father Time, it is evident that Wade has no backup plan when he cannot just elevate over everyone; he has been transformed from an All-Star into a hesitant role player who does not have the footwork or perimeter shot to be a consistent scorer and the Spurs are guarding him like he is a scrub: no double teams are sent his way and he is being dared to shoot any shot outside of six to eight feet.
Chris Bosh is trying to do the right thing, largely abandoning the three point line in favor of the midpost area, but he is an afterthought in Miami's offense; he finished with 12 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. It is fashionable to criticize Bosh when the Heat lose but the reality is that he does not get to touch the ball very often; he is supposed to watch James and Wade dribble around and then be ready to shoot jump shots when they deign to pass him the ball.
LeBron James scored 15 points on 7-21 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for five assists but his performance was even worse than those mediocre numbers (by his standards) suggest. James made just two of his first 12 field goal attempts, the second game in a row that he has missed 10 of his first 12 shots, and even after he padded his statistics with a one man 9-0 run late in the third quarter the Heat still trailed 76-63; he did not play aggressively until the game was out of reach and he combined with Wade to shoot 0-8 from the field as the Spurs extended their 50-44 halftime lead to 73-52.
The emergence of Green this season--and especially in this series--is fascinating. Green could barely even get on the court for the
2009-10 Cleveland team that went a league-best 61-21 in the regular
season and could very well have won a championship if LeBron James had
not
quit versus Boston in the playoffs.
Just two years later, Green started 38 games for an excellent San
Antonio team--and now he has outscored James through the first three
games of the 2013 NBA Finals. There is little doubt that Green has
matured since his Cleveland days and that he has further developed his
skill set, but the larger point is that he did so while starting for one
of the league's best teams because they did not have anyone better to
put in the game ahead of him--and he did not get the same opportunity in
Cleveland precisely because the Cavaliers possessed so much depth,
contrary to popular belief. It is true that the Cavaliers never brought
in an All-Star in his prime to play alongside James, but that is in no
small part because James would not entice such a player to come to Cleveland by definitively
saying that he was going to stay in Cleveland. Despite James' refusal to recruit players to come to Cleveland, the
Cavaliers' front office built a very deep, defensive-minded team that
was good enough to reach the NBA Finals once and to post the NBA's best
regular season record in two other campaigns.
Like Danny
Green in 2009-10, Shannon Brown could barely get on the court for the 2006-07
Cleveland team that advanced to the NBA Finals; two years later Brown was
the first guard off of the bench for the Lakers as they reached the NBA
Finals and in the next two seasons Brown was the first guard off of the
bench for the Lakers' back to back championship teams. Many pundits
claimed that those Lakers were very talented and/or very deep but
I made the case that the 2009 Lakers were one of the least talented championship teams of the past two decades.
It should be obvious that if a guy who cannot even get off of the bench
for one of the 2007 NBA Finalists becomes part of the seven man rotation for a
championship team then that championship team is not very talented.
Furthermore, look at what happened to those "talented" Lakers since
2009: Lamar Odom, the team's third best player, has looked like garbage
since he stopped living off of Kobe Bryant being double-teamed; starting
point guard Derek Fisher became a seldom-used reserve in Oklahoma City;
Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar--two young players who were endlessly
praised by the same media members who still mock LeBron James' Cleveland
teammates--are not even in the league anymore! The 2009 Lakers won the championship because Kobe Bryant relentlessly attacked opposing defenses. Here are Bryant's
scoring and assist numbers in the 2009 NBA Finals:
Game one: 40 points, eight assists
Game two: 29 points, eight assists
Game three: 31 points, eight assists
Game four: 32 points, eight assists
Game five: 30 points, five assists
Bryant
averaged 32.4 ppg and 7.4 apg in that series. He posted the fourth
highest scoring average in NBA history for a five game NBA Finals and in
the decisive game he led both teams in scoring while also leading the
Lakers in assists, steals and blocked shots in addition to grabbing six
rebounds and committing just one turnover. Here is part of what I wrote
in my series recap:
[LeBron] James certainly had a tremendous postseason
but watching Bryant lead the Lakers to the title you could see the
significance of some of the skill set advantages Bryant has over
James--particularly the ability to consistently make the midrange jump
shot: teams simply cannot ever concede that shot to Bryant and thus
Bryant is very difficult to single cover in the 15-18 foot area, which
opens scoring opportunities for all of his teammates. It is no accident
or coincidence that Pau Gasol has played the most efficient ball of his
career since joining the Lakers (see below for more on that subject) or
that career journeymen like Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown suddenly
become much more productive playing alongside Bryant: Bryant's teammates
know that they are going to be wide open and, just as importantly, they
know exactly when and where they will be open and they know that Bryant
is a willing passer, so all they have to focus on is knocking down wide
open shots.
In many ways, Bryant saved his best for last in the
2009 postseason; Jerry West is the only player to match or exceed
Bryant's scoring and assists averages in the same NBA Finals. West won
the NBA's first Finals MVP in 1969 after averaging 37.9 ppg and 7.4 apg
in a seven game loss to the Boston Celtics; West remains the only player
to ever win that award despite playing on the losing team.
Bryant lived up to his responsibility and obligation as an elite player; he scored, he passed, he rebounded and he defended: he did not defer to anyone or wait for anyone to do anything but instead he dictated his terms to the opposing team and he instilled confidence in his teammates with his aggressiveness. The notion that James must choose between being Magic Johnson or Michael Jordan is ludicrous. James will never be Magic Johnson because Magic Johnson was a pass-first point guard on a team full of scorers while James is an all-time great scorer on a team that needs for him to score at least 25 ppg. Furthermore, the idea that James has to choose between scoring and passing is nonsense; Jordan scored and passed as his teams won six championships, as did Bryant as his teams won five championships.
James is averaging 16.7 ppg on .389 field goal shooting in the 2013
Finals; his scoring has declined in each game (18-17-15), as has his
field goal percentage (7-16, 7-17, 7-21). He did not attempt a free throw in game three and he has only attempted six free throws so far in the series. In 18 career Finals games he
has scored less than 20 points seven times. When he
won the 2012 Finals MVP while leading the Heat to the championship he averaged 28.6 ppg and he scored between 26 and 32 points in each game; it seemed like James had finally figured out how to excel on the sport's biggest stage but so far in the 2013 Finals he has regressed.
I very much respect Kenny Smith's basketball acumen but I
disagree with his defense of James' play in the first two games of this
series and I don't see how anyone can defend James after game three.
James is naturally going to put up big rebounding numbers as the power
forward in Miami's small lineup but in game three the Heat got killed on the boards
anyway. James is not Magic Johnson and the Heat cannot win this series
unless he plays aggressively on offense; the Heat need for James to resume being a big-time scorer and their players must be very puzzled by James' passivity and apparent lack of confidence. Bryant exuded personal confidence and instilled confidence in his less talented teammates, while James is doing the opposite in the 2013 Finals.
What we are seeing from James in this series is a good example of why I did not include any active players in my pro basketball
Pantheon; James is a great player but he has played on several championship caliber teams so far while winning just one title. All of the players in the Pantheon either won multiple titles or else put up outrageous statistics while losing in the Finals to other Pantheon members. James may play in several more Finals, he may win multiple titles and he may push his way to the top of the Pantheon--but if he keeps scoring in the teens in the Finals then he is going to end up with one championship on his resume and he will not deserve to be mentioned ahead of the Pantheon members no matter what the "stat gurus" say about his "advanced basketball statistics."
One major improvement for James over his Cleveland days is that he now takes responsibility for his poor play instead of saying things like he has "spoiled" the fans with his consistent excellence; after game three, James said, "I gotta be better. It's that simple. If I'm better, we're better. I gotta be better. I'm putting everything on my chest and on my shoulders. I gotta be better. It's that simple. My teammates are doing a good job; they're doing a great job and I'm not doing my part."
James is right that he must do better but saying the correct words is one thing and putting those words into action at the highest level of the sport is another thing. After one of the Chicago Bulls' painful playoff losses to the Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan's father tried to console Jordan by saying that there would be more chances to win a championship but Jordan replied that one never knows how many chances he will get. We do not know if James is only beginning to write his Finals story, if
he is in the middle of that story or if this is his last Finals appearance but James' 1-2 Finals record (pending the outcome of the 2013 Finals)--while
scoring far below his normal average and shooting far worse than his
normal field goal percentage--does not stack up very well against the
Finals records posted by the greatest players of the past 40 years; each of these players won at least three titles and none of them had a losing record in the Finals. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won a championship in his first Finals appearance and he finished with a 6-4 Finals record. Julius Erving won championships the first two times he reached the Finals (both in the ABA) and he finished with a 3-3 Finals record (including the NBA). Larry Bird won championships in his first two Finals appearances and he finished with a 3-2 Finals record. Magic Johnson won championships in his first two Finals appearances and he finished with a 5-4 Finals record. Michael Jordan went 6-0 in the Finals. Shaquille O'Neal lost in his first Finals appearance and he finished with a 4-2 Finals record. Kobe Bryant won a championship in each of his first three Finals appearances and he now has a 5-2 Finals record. Tim Duncan has a 4-0 Finals record (pending the outcome of the 2013 Finals). A great player should not be judged solely on how many championships he wins but when the best player in the league annually plays for a top contender he should be expected to be at the top of his game in the Finals and he should be expected to win multiple titles.
"Stat gurus" mocked Jordan for saying that he would take Bryant over James because "five beats one" but every time in the NBA Finals that James settles for a long two point jumper or passes the ball instead of attacking the defense he is proving Jordan right.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, Gary Neal, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Shannon Brown, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 6:22 AM
Sizzling Second Half Run Propels Heat to Game Two Win
The San Antonio Spurs led the Miami Heat 62-61 with 3:50 remaining in the third quarter of game two of the NBA Finals and were in prime position to take a commanding 2-0 series lead but then the Heat went on a 33-5 run to save their season; the Heat's 103-84 win puts the pressure on the Spurs to win three straight games at home in the NBA's outdated 2-3-2 Finals format. Mario Chalmers led the Heat with a game-high 19 points; he is not a traditional point guard--Chalmers had just two assists--but he is a fearless scorer, equally able to attack the hoop off of the dribble and to drain long jumpers. LeBron James finished with 17 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three steals and three blocked shots while shooting 7-17 from the field. Chris Bosh contributed 12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and three steals. Although Bosh's numbers are not eye-popping, he made a subtle but important adjustment by eschewing the three point shot in favor of stationing himself within 18 feet of the basket on offense; this enabled him to improve his shooting percentage, grab more rebounds and have more of an impact on the game. Dwyane Wade added 10 points and six assists, with all of the points and four of the assists coming in the first half. Danny Green led the Spurs with 17 points on 6-6 field goal shooting, including 5-5 from three point range. San Antonio's Big Three came up very small: Tony Parker had 13 points, five assists and five turnovers while shooting 5-14 from the field, Tim Duncan had nine points and 11 rebounds while shooting 3-13 from the field and Manu Ginobili had five points on 2-6 shooting in 18 unproductive minutes.
James has won four of the previous five NBA regular season MVPs,
so there is an understandable tendency to view every Miami Heat game
through the prism of James' performance--but the real story of game two is just how badly Parker, Duncan and Ginobili played. Duncan is a certain first ballot Hall of Famer and Parker and Ginobili will both likely earn Hall of Fame induction as well, so they should be held to a high standard; Parker and Ginobili were both very careless with the ball, which is inexplicable since the Spurs know that live ball turnovers are death against the Heat because such miscues ignite Miami's potent transition game. If Parker and Ginobili make safe passes and patiently run the Spurs' half court offense then San Antonio can be very effective against the undersized Heat. Duncan played a more poised and intelligent game than Parker and Ginobili did but he has to shoot much better from the field.
Some commentators place great emphasis on one or two statistics from a particular game but it is important to understand the difference between a trend and something that is simply an aberration that has no real significance due to a small sample size. Here are two examples of aberrations: (1) the Spurs tied an NBA Finals record by committing just four turnovers in game one; (2) the Spurs shot 7-10 from three point range in the first half of game two. The Spurs soon regressed to the mean in both categories; they committed 16 turnovers in game two and they shot 3-10 from three point range in the second half of game two. The Spurs cannot reasonably expect to have another four turnover game or to regularly shoot 7-10 from three point range during a half but in order to beat the Heat they should strive to commit fewer than 12 turnovers per game and to shoot around .400 from beyond the arc.
Much has been made about how difficult and/or intimidating
it is to interview San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich. I love Popovich's
press conferences and in-game interviews because he does not let
reporters off of the hook for asking stupid and/or lazy questions. After game one, someone asked Popovich how the Spurs managed to commit just four turnovers and he candidly replied that he has no idea because he does not have a "no turnover drill." In other words, "Why are you asking me to come up with an explanation for something that is obviously an aberration?" In another Finals press conference, Popovich noted that one year his team finished close to the bottom of the league in three point field goal percentage defense and then the next year they finished near the top of the league in that category despite not doing anything differently; he said that he never figured that one out but that he thinks that many people are too narrowly focused on statistics instead of just watching the game as a whole. "Advanced basketball statistics" supposedly bring basketball analysis to a higher, more objective level but in the wrong hands these numbers just dumb things down; instead of watching games with understanding, media members randomly pluck out a bunch of statistics and look for patterns that do not exist and/or are not meaningful because the sample size is too small. It is true that to win this series the Spurs must keep their turnover total as low as possible but it is not logical to draw definitive conclusions based on one game during which the Spurs only committed four turnovers.
The first time that I interviewed Popovich I did not feel intimidated at all; I asked him intelligent questions and I received thoughtful responses. He gives short and/or repetitive answers to some
reporters because those reporters asked him stupid and/or obvious
questions. After game two, someone asked Popovich what he saw during
Miami's 33-5 run and Popovich said, "They did a great job." Many reporters do not even ask fully formed questions; they simply say something like, "Talk about what happened in the third quarter." Some coaches respond to such lazy "questions" by sticking to whatever message they want to deliver but Popovich draws attention to unprepared questioners by issuing direct, curt replies. If you ask Popovich to "talk about" something then he is going to say, "They played well." He is not going to do the reporter's work for him. I have yet
to see/hear Popovich give a disrespectful answer to a well formed
question, so anyone who tells "horror stories" about interviewing
Popovich is essentially admitting his/her own incompetence. One quasi-exception is
the celebrated "happy" question that TNT's David Aldridge asked;
Aldridge is an excellent, well-informed NBA reporter who made a poor
word choice earlier this season at the spur of the moment (pun intended) when he asked if
Popovich were "happy" about how the game was going and Popovich replied
that no one is "happy" in the middle of a tough contest. Aldridge knew
that he had phrased his question poorly and the two of them joked about
it later. The rest of the reporters who are so intimidated by Popovich
need to stop complaining and do their jobs better.
In addition to taking numbers out of context, media members also like to take spectacular highlight plays out of context and then elevate the importance of those plays. James' block of Tiago Splitter's fourth quarter dunk attempt has already been replayed countless times--but the Heat were up 86-67 and the outcome of the game had already been decided, so this was not a game-changing play. It was a very athletic play and it was nice to see James go for the block without fearing being dunked on but that sequence had very little meaning in the larger context of the game and the series.
While the story of this game should be about how poorly/passively the Spurs' Big Three performed, most of the focus will shine on James; James' performance/box score numbers once again provide a Rorschach
test
about how one evaluates basketball players: did James play passively and
get bailed out by his teammates until he came to life during the big
33-5 run or did James deftly take what the defense gave him while
resisting the temptation to force the action? When James quit in the
2011 NBA Finals versus Dallas and in the
2010 playoffs versus Boston no rational observer could dispute what happened: James played lethargically, he gave up the ball early in possessions without making any effort to get the ball back and he looked/acted disinterested. What James did in the first half of game two is harder to quantify/explain. The Spurs have set up their half court defense to make it difficult for James to drive to the hoop--but every team does this against James and he still can get to the hoop when he puts his mind to it. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy said during the first half that James was
"remarkably uninvolved" offensively. After the Heat took over the game
in the second half, Van Gundy resisted the urge to engage in revisionist
history (i.e., to act like James had deliberately eased himself into the game) and he reminded viewers, "Until that spurt, he was not
himself." This is not just a matter of ignorant fans and/or ignorant media members wrongly blasting James; Van Gundy--a former NBA coach who has no obvious agenda and who has a deep understanding of the NBA game--was puzzled by and critical of James' first half performance. James scored two first quarter points on 1-4 field goal shooting, two second quarter points on 1-3 field goal shooting and four third quarter points on 1-6 field goal shooting before scoring nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. James had 11 points and three assists during Miami's decisive 33-5 run. The idea that the Heat are better off without James being a big-time scorer is absurd; this game was up for grabs until James asserted himself offensively.
During NBA TV's pregame show, Shaquille O'Neal mentioned that when he was James' teammate in Cleveland during the 2009-10 season he told James that James sometimes holds the ball too long and thus lets the defense get set; at that time, O'Neal urged James to be aggressive and attack quickly. O'Neal is right; that is how he played when he was dominant and that is how other dominant players who won multiple championships played, from
Julius Erving in the ABA to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan: during their primes, those players made the defense react to them. This is not about statistics but about mindset and impact; a great player should have the mindset to dictate the terms of play and he should perform in a way that controls the game. James usually does this but he has displayed a strange tendency to be passive during his NBA Finals career; James' regular season career scoring average is 27.6 ppg and his playoff career scoring average is 28.1 ppg but he only averaged 22.0 ppg in the 2007 Finals and 17.8 ppg in the 2011 Finals before scoring 28.6 ppg in the 2012 Finals. Not surprisingly, James' teams lost both times when his scoring declined significantly but he
led the Heat to the 2012 championship and won the Finals MVP when he maintained his normal scoring average. James has now played in 17 Finals games; his teams are 7-10 in those games and he has scored 30 or more points just twice while scoring fewer than 20 points six times. James has yet to consistently make his mark as a scorer in championship play. If that trend continues, the Heat will not win this series and it will be difficult to rank James at the top level of pro basketball's pantheon, no matter what else he accomplishes in the regular season and the first three rounds of the playoffs: James is not Magic Johnson nor has he ever led a team to the Finals by playing like Magic Johnson; James has led teams to the Finals as a big-time scorer, he won his only championship as a big-time scorer and if he is going to win more championships he will do so as a big-time scorer.
The Heat survived James' passive first half because the Spurs' Big Three all performed badly but if the Spurs rediscover their game in San Antonio then the Heat will need for James to be at least a 25 ppg scorer in order to extend the series to six or seven games.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 4:50 AM
