Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form a reliable 1-2 scoring punch while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen dominate in the paint. The Cavaliers, who have looked soft at times this season, must meet force with force at both ends of the court.
Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring during the regular season (27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .483/.364/.865) and he led the Cavaliers in scoring during their 4-3 first round win over the Toronto Raptors (23.1 ppg with shooting splits of .438/.333/.875). The obvious differences are that both his scoring and his field goal shooting dropped precipitously from the regular season to the playoffs. His regular season scoring and field goal percentage both were just below his career high numbers (28.3 ppg and .484 field goal shooting in 2022-23), but his playoff scoring is on pace to be the second-worst of his nine postseason appearances. After scoring 32 points and 30 points as the Cavaliers won the first two games of the series, Mitchell scored 24 points or less in each of the next five games. Mitchell's playoff career has been filled with highs--including leading the league in playoff scoring in 2020 (36.3 ppg on .529 field goal shooting)--and lows, but his teams are 0-4 in second round series, which dulls the shine of his 27.8 ppg career playoff scoring average (seventh best all-time).
Harden averaged 20.6 ppg and a team-high 6.1 apg versus the Raptors, numbers that are in line with his regular season numbers in the 26 games he played with the Cavaliers (20.5 ppg, 7.7 apg)--but Harden's turnovers jumped from 3.2 tpg in the regular season with Cleveland to 5.1 tpg versus the Raptors. His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume prior to 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.
After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I
can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss
now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James
Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half
points.'" Nothing that I saw in the Toronto series made me alter the article template that I prepared for Cleveland's elimination game loss.
The Evan Mobley-Tim Duncan comparisons are delusional, but when Mobley is at his best he is one of the top big men in the league. He ranked third on the team in scoring versus Toronto (18.1 ppg) while leading the team in rebounding (8.6 rpg). Mobley is a very good player, but he is not a dominant player in the way that Duncan controlled the action at both ends of the court.
Charles Barkley often says that Jarrett Allen seems too nice, and the first six games of the Toronto series validated that observation, but Allen showed a little nastiness just in time to save the Cavaliers in game seven with a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots. Allen had a double double in the third quarter alone (14 points, 11 rebounds) as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 38-19. Allen's dominating performance saved the day, and let Harden off the hook despite his typically erratic elimination game field goal shooting.
Detroit will win because...the Pistons are more physical than the Cavaliers and because Cade Cunningham is the best player on either team.
Cavaliers versus Pistons is the NBA's version of a "run and shoot" NFL offense versus a team that plays "ground and pound" offense while knocking you around on defense. During the regular season, the Pistons ranked 28th in three point field goals made but they finished third in field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and third in defensive field goal percentage; during the playoffs, the Pistons rank 16th (last) in three point field goals made per game, but first in points allowed and first in defensive field goal percentage. Granted, the Pistons' playoff defensive numbers are boosted by playing the Orlando Magic, who just fired coach Jamahl Mosley in no small part because of the Magic's historically inept offense, but the Pistons will pose far more challenges for the Cavaliers than the Raptors did.
Cunningham seems poised to be an MVP candidate and All-NBA Team member for years to come after averaging 23.9 ppg and 9.9 apg (second in the league) during the regular season before averaging 32.4 ppg and 7.1 apg as the Pistons defeated the Magic, 4-3. He is taller, bigger, and younger than Mitchell and Harden, and--unlike the Cavaliers' guards--he consistently plays hard on defense in addition to running the Pistons' offense.
Jalen Duren disappeared at times versus Orlando, but he came up big in Detroit's 116-04 game seven win (15 points, game-high 15 rebounds), and he averaged a team-high 9.4 rpg during the series. He is an efficient scorer (.528 field goal percentage versus the Magic) who understands his limitations (he did not attempt a three pointer in the first round). The Pistons need him to be productive versus Mobley and Allen.
Tobias Harris has made a career out of being the third option but in the first round he averaged 21.6 ppg, trailing only Cunningham. He erupted for 30 points in game seven.
Ausar Thompson provides defense, rebounding (8.7 rpg versus the Magic) and efficient scoring (8.1 ppg on .510 field goal shooting versus the Magic), while Duncan Robinson is a three point sniper whose defense is much improved.
Other things to consider: The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff in 2024 after he led the team to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His replacement Kenny Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to the Eastern Conference's best record (64-18) but the Cavaliers again lost in the second round. Meanwhile, after the Pistons hired Bickerstaff in 2024 their win total jumped from 14 to 44, and Bickerstaff finished second to Atkinson in the Coach of the Year voting. This season, the Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record while the Cavaliers regressed to the fourth seed. This playoff series cannot provide a definitive verdict on Cleveland's decision to replace Bickerstaff with Atkinson, but the overall trendline of the past two seasons seems to favor Detroit over Cleveland.
Speaking of coaching, it must be mentioned that both teams were pushed to seven games by lower seeded first round opponents.
Cunningham is the seventh player to have at least 30 points (team-high 32) and at least 10 assists (game-high 12) in a game seven as he led the Pistons to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit versus the eighth seeded Magic. It is not surprising that the Pistons won the series, but it is baffling that the offensively challenged Magic--who scored less than 100 points in four of the seven games--beat the Pistons three times.
The Cavaliers jumped out to a 2-0 series lead but then struggled to close out the undermanned Raptors, who finished the series without the services of leading regular season scorer Brandon Ingram (left heel injury suffered in game five) and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (who missed the entire series with a right hamstring strain). In game seven, the Cavaliers trailed 47-38 with 2:58 remaining in the first half before tying the score at 49-49 by halftime. The Cavaliers opened the third quarter with a 9-0 run, and they maintained a double digit lead for the final 16:53 of the game thanks to strong second half performances by Allen (16 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, 14 rebounds) and Mitchell (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) to overcome a typical Harden disappearing act in the second half of an elimination game (eight points on 1-4 field goal shooting).
Before beating the Magic, the Pistons had not won a playoff series since 2008, while the Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. Playoff experience matters, but when neither team has meaningful collective playoff experience other important factors have added weight. Such factors include which team has the best player, which team is more physical, which team plays better defense, and which team has homecourt advantage. The Pistons have the advantage in all of those categories.
Detroit will defeat Cleveland in six games.
Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Tobias Harris
posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 PM
76ers Beat Knicks 79-73 in Lowest Scoring NBA Game Since 2016
The Philadelphia 76ers defeated the New York Knicks 79-73 on Sunday night despite being without the services of injured All-Stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Embiid has missed the last 18 games while recovering from knee surgery, while Maxey has been out for four games because he is in the concussion protocol. The Knicks played without All-Star Julius Randle, who has missed 18 straight games with a dislocated shoulder. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the 76ers with 18 points while also grabbing 10 rebounds and swiping three steals. Buddy Hield (16 points, seven rebounds) and Paul Reed (13 points, seven rebounds) made important contributions off of the bench, while Tobias Harris added 11 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 19 points and passed for a game-high eight assists, but he shot just 6-22 from the field. Donte DiVincenzo had 15 points on 6-17 field goal shooting, and Bojan Bogdanovic (10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) was the Knicks' only other double figure scorer.
This is the first NBA game in which both teams scored fewer than 80 points since January 6, 2016. The Knicks shot just 26-80 (.325) from the field and they committed 21 turnovers, eight more than their per game average. The Knicks were particularly bad from three point range (9-40, .225) and--like many teams in the modern NBA--they kept firing away from long range unconcerned about their airballs and bricks; it is puzzling that so many NBA teams do not have a backup plan for games during which they just cannot make three pointers.
Hubie Brown
provided the color commentary for ESPN, and this is the fourth 76ers game
for which Brown has provided color commentary since February 23; his
most recent telecast was when the 76ers defeated the Mavericks 120-116 on Sunday March 3, and prior to that he did the color commentary when the Bucks topped the 76ers 119-98 on Sunday February 25, and when the 76ers beat the Cavaliers 104-97 on Friday February 23.
During his pregame remarks, Brown noted that Brunson is a three level scorer (three point line, midrange, in the paint), and he said that he is happy that Brunson was rewarded for his hard work by making the All-Star team for the first time. Brown mentioned that Harris is a versatile player and he said that Harris' contributions are critically important while Embiid and Maxey are sidelined. Brown concluded that the pressure is on for both of these teams to maintain their position in the standings by not losing to sub-.500 teams.
When the game began, Brown pointed out that the 76ers had two point guards in the starting lineup--Kyle Lowry and Cameron Payne--to control the tempo and try to get easy fast break scoring opportunities. Brown observed that neither of those point guards checked Brunson; instead, the 76ers assigned that task to the bigger and more athletic Oubre.
Brown singled out Harris' excellent first quarter--six points, five rebounds--as the teams played to a 15-15 tie after the first 12 minutes. The 76ers shot 7-24 (.292) from the field, while the Knicks shot 6-18 (.333) and had more turnovers (seven) than field goals made--the rare team "Harden" (the statistical category denoting a player--or, in this case, a team--accumulating more turnovers than field goals made). Brown said that the 76ers were struggling to score against New York's active, switching defense. He also mentioned throughout the game how much he loves Reed, who he described as a "tough guy."
The Knicks posted another "Harden" in the second quarter, again with seven turnovers and six field goals made, and the 76ers outscored them 22-16 to take a 37-31 halftime lead as the teams combined for the NBA's lowest scoring half this season. Brown provided his usual concise, on point scouting reports on various players, chiding the Knicks that they must jam Hield because Hield is always looking to shoot, and praising Oubre as "a midrange player who wants the contact." Brown said that the 76ers did a terrific job forcing Brunson to take tough, contested shots while also cutting down his passing angles. I love Brunson's attitude and work ethic, and there is no denying how productive he has been during his career, but it must be a little disconcerting for Knicks' fans to see how much he can be bothered by size, which is often the downfall of undersized guards--particularly during postseason play, when the best teams often either have big guards or else will cross-match to nullify a potent but undersized guard.
Beth Mowins on the play by play mentioned that ESPN Analytics predict that both teams will maintain their current position in the standings. Brown quipped, "Does that mean we don't have to play the remaining games?" Brown favored the use of meaningful statistics--including point differential--long before anyone talked about "advanced basketball statistics," but he does not go all-in on the numerical driven nonsense spewed by many analysts and commentators who lack his ability to understand a basketball game by watching with an educated eye.
During the third quarter, ESPN showed a graphic of the top five single season scorers in Knicks' history: Bernard King (32.9 ppg in 1984-85), Richie Guerin (29.5 ppg in 1961-62), Carmelo Anthony (28.7 ppg in 2012-13), Patrick Ewing (28.6 ppg in 1989-90), and Carmelo Anthony (27.4 ppg in 2013-14). Brunson averaged 27.2 ppg this season prior to Sunday night's game. Brown coached the Knicks from 1982-86, so he had a close view of King's most dominant seasons--a 26.3 ppg masterpiece in 1983-84 when the Knicks pushed the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, followed by a league-leading 32.9 ppg in a 1984-85 season cut short by a devastating knee injury that kept King out of action until 1987. King eventually became the first player to make the All-Star team with a totally reconstructed knee. Brown shared poignant memories of how King injured his knee in 1985 while doing a chasedown block of Reggie Theus in Kansas City. Mowins quietly commented that the worst moments are sometimes more memorable for coaches than the highlight moments.
As the teams slogged their way through a 42-42 second half, Brown said of Harris, "They need him to get going. They need him to not be bashful." It is often frustrating to watch Harris; he seems to have first option level talent, but despite his size, athletic ability, and shooting skill he tends to drift through games instead of placing his imprint on the action.
One does not need to be a basketball expert to diagnose New York's problems during this game--too many turnovers combined with wretched three point shooting--but Brown managed to state the obvious without beating viewers over the head with it; we could all see what was happening without someone like "Screamin' A" Smith rupturing our eardrums while confusing decibel levels with IQ points, as if raising the former corresponds with demonstrating a high number of the latter.
Brown does not harp on officiating, but he made an observation that he has made in previous games this season: players have difficulty figuring out how to play when the officiating is inconsistent regarding what is a foul. Coaches and players have criticized officiating forever, but it seems like the overall quality of officiating has declined in recent years.
This game is not destined to be rebroadcast as an "instant classic," but Brown once again provided a master class in how to analyze a game without screaming, without citing numbers of doubtful relevance or value, and without making it seem like the game is a branding opportunity for the commentators as opposed to entertainment for the viewers.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Julius Randle, Kelly Oubre Jr., New York Knicks, Paul Reed, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 2:01 AM
Harris, Maxey, and Oubre Lead the Way as Philadelphia Outlasts Dallas, 120-116
The Philadelphia 76ers sans 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid--who missed his 14th straight game due to a knee injury--defeated the Dallas Mavericks 120-116 on Sunday afternoon. Tobias Harris scored a team-high 28 points, Tyrese Maxey added 24 points, and Kelly Oubre Jr. contributed 21 points in 26 minutes off of the bench for the 76ers. Luka Doncic scored a game-high 38 points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds (tied with the 76ers' Nicolas Batum), and dished for a game-high 10 assists to join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Russell Westbrook as the only players to have at least three consecutive 30 point triple doubles. Kyrie Irving scored 28 points, and Derrick Jones Jr. had 21 points in 26 minutes to match Oubre as the game's highest scoring bench player. The 76ers enjoyed significant advantages in points in the paint (52-42), turnovers (committing just nine compared to the Mavericks' 17), and bench scoring (41-26); it is worth remembering how much depth and defensive versatility the Mavericks gave up to acquire Irving.
Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC, and this is the third 76ers game for which Brown has provided color commentary since February 23; his most recent telecast was when the Bucks defeated the 76ers 119-98 on Sunday February 25, and he also did the color commentary when the 76ers beat the Cavaliers 104-97 on Friday February 23.
Before this game began, Brown noted that Doncic is not only leading the NBA in scoring while ranking third in assists, but he also ranks 19th in rebounding (first among guards). Brown emphasized that Doncic plays with great "physical force," using his strength to score in the paint while also being prolific from three point range. The only thing that I would add to Brown's scouting report is that Doncic’s rebounding and ability to advance ball with either the dribble or the pass echo the way that his coach Jason Kidd played; Kidd was a one man fastbreak, and so is Doncic, even though his body type and playing style are both different than Kidd's. Regarding Maxey, Brown said that the key question is, "Can you lead and make the plays when you get trapped?" He added that this is particularly important in the last five minutes of close games.
The Mavericks jumped out to an 11-0 lead, and that would usually be significant because the NBA--contrary to popular belief--is not so much a fourth quarter league as a first quarter league: early leads often are the result of matchup advantages that can and will be exploited throughout the game. Here, though, the 76ers countered with a 32-11 run to end the first quarter with a 32-22 lead, and the 76ers did not trail the rest of the way. Maxey scored 17 first quarter points on 7-10 field goal shooting. Brown commented that Maxey is "answering the pressure" of being the team's number one option with Embiid out of action, and Brown mentioned that Maxey is very dangerous going right because of his explosive quickness.
Doncic and Irving started slowly with Doncic scoring three first quarter points on 1-6 field goal shooting (though he did have five assists) and Irving failing to score after shooting 0-1 from the field. Both heated up in the second quarter: Doncic scored 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting, and Irving had seven points on 3-4 field goal shooting as the Mavericks outscored the 76ers 29-24 to trim the 76ers' lead to 56-51. The 76ers' Buddy Hield committed a backcourt foul--with the Mavericks in the bonus--with less than a second remaining in the first half, and P.J. Washington nailed both free throws. Brown said of Hield's gaffe, "That's a gift." The 76ers only committed one first half turnover, and they scored 30 points in the paint, while the Mavericks coughed up the ball 11 times and scored just 16 points in the paint.
Brown does not just talk about star players. He praised Paul Reed's game overall, and he focused on how Reed makes himself "available" for the pass while staying active on the boards. Reed had 13 points and seven rebounds for the 76ers. Brown pointed out that Harris' post ups on the block versus smaller defenders drew double teams that led to open three point shots. Brown described this game as one characterized by three "streaks": the Mavericks' 11-0 run at the start, Maxey's subsequent 17 point first quarter explosion, and then Maxey scoring just two points in the second quarter and the third quarter combined. Maxey missed the last four minutes of the third quarter after slipping and banging his head on Derrick Jones Jr.'s right shin, but after being examined by medical staff Maxey was cleared to return for the fourth quarter. Maxey played all 12 minutes in the final stanza, scoring five points.
Brown also talked about the league-leading Boston Celtics, saying that the Celtics are "9-10 deep with established players. They can defend." Those words proved to be prophetic, as later in the afternoon the Celtics dismantled the Golden State Warriors, 140-88. TNT's Charles Barkley recently said that the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors are not championship contenders; the Celtics seemed determined to prove Barkley correct about the Warriors while also getting a (small) measure of revenge for the Warriors clinching the 2022 championship on Boston's home court.
Down the stretch, Brown said, "This is about Dallas playing halfcourt defense." The Mavericks outscored the 76ers 40-30 in the fourth quarter, but that was not quite enough to complete the comeback attempt. Oubre provided a big lift in the fourth quarter, scoring 11 points. Doncic (18 points) and Irving (10 points) shined offensively in the final 12 minutes, but--as Brown correctly stated--the Mavericks needed to string together stops in order to prevail.
Doncic's 30 point triple double happened anticlimactically, as Brown's play by play partner Dave Pasch mentioned that Doncic had been credited with his 10th assist without specifying exactly when that happened. Doncic is a great player on the way toward becoming an all-time great
player, but some of the numbers being posted in today's NBA--not just
by Doncic, but in general--should be viewed with a skeptical eye. For
example, take a look at Doncic's 10th assist at the 1:34 mark of the
fourth quarter, granted by a Dallas scorekeeper who must have known that
time was running out for Doncic to notch his third straight 30 point
triple double: Doncic passed to Irving, who caught the ball on the right
wing outside of the three point line, sized up defender Kyle Lowry,
took two hard dribbles, and then nailed a fadeaway jumper in the paint.
What contribution did Doncic's pass make to "assist" Irving's field
goal? Irving scored on a one on one move. Here is the NBA's rule book
definition of an assist, as quoted in an article that I wrote on December 18, 2008:
An assist is a pass that directly
leads to a basket. This can be a pass to the low post that leads to a
direct score, a long pass for a layup, a fast break pass to a teammate
for a layup, and/or a pass that results in an open perimeter shot for a
teammate. In basketball, an assist is awarded only if, in the judgement
of the statistician, the last player's pass contributed directly to a
made basket. An assist can be awarded for a basket scored after the ball
has been dribbled if the player's pass led to the field goal being
made.
Doncic's pass to Irving did not contribute directly to the field goal being made. The NBA retroactively rescinded a phony LeBron James triple double in November 2014,
but the league has been very inconsistent (and not transparent) about
how/when/if it reviews scorekeeping errors; my subjective
belief/observation is that the NBA rescinds egregiously incorrect triple
doubles that receive a lot of media attention, but that the league does
not have the inclination to systematically review scorekeeping errors.
My research years ago indicated that assist totals in general--and Chris Paul's assist totals in particular--are inflated, but based on the NBA's indifference it is evident that the league would prefer to have gaudy numbers to promote and thus is disinclined to look too closely behind the curtain. This is unfortunate for players who accumulated their numbers during eras when assists were awarded with much less leniency.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Hubie Brown, Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Paul Reed, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 1:34 AM
Heat Cruise by 76ers as the James Harden "Concert Tour" Wraps up in Miami
The Miami Heat used a balanced scoring attack, blazing three point shooting, and solid defense to defeat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 and take a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Philadelphia for the next two games. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting and he grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Jimmy Butler added 22 points on 8-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high 12 assists. Victor Oladipo (19 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (18 points on 6-10 field goal shooting) provided a huge lift off of the bench. The Heat outrebounded the 76ers 44-34, and the Heat shot 14-29 (.483) from three point range while holding the 76ers to 8-30 (.267) shooting from long distance.
With Joel Embiid sidelined for the second straight game (concussion protocol/orbital fracture), Tyrese Maxey poured in a game-high 34 points on 12-22 field goal shooting. Tobias Harris added 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting while also contributing four rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Neither Maxey nor Harris committed a single turnover. If only the 76ers had an MVP-caliber player who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team so that Maxey and Harris could be the second and third options, then the 76ers might have a real chance in this series even without Embiid.
Instead, the 76ers have a player whose resume is so fraudulent it should form the basis of
a sequel to "Catch Me if You Can." James Harden's "concert tour" from the first game (5-13)
continued as he set a 6-15 tour date tonight. Harden scored 20 points while shooting 6-15 from the field, and he led the 76ers with nine assists; he was inefficient overall, and he was invisible when it mattered the most: in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden scored two points and shot 0-3 from the field. He scored four points on 1-5 field goal shooting in the second half.
The "experts" keep saying
that Harden has suddenly aged, but the only thing that has changed is that referees are not rewarding him with phantom foul calls; that means that he gets fewer cheap free throws, and it also means that defenders can guard him normally. Harden's demonstrated skill set now is the same that it was during previous playoff runs, as is his propensity to disappear in crunch time. Harden still overdribbles, jacks up three pointers, shoots poorly, and disappears when
his team needs him the most. Harden was front and center for what Charles Barkley called "one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen" as Harden's 2019 Houston Rockets lost at home to the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant, and what we are seeing now is just the latest chapter in the epic book of Harden's playoff choke jobs/disappearing acts.
Miami led 31-24 after the first quarter as Butler scored six points on
2-4 field goal shooting. Harden started slowly with four points on 1-4 field goal
shooting. Philadelphia gained no ground in the second quarter, and Miami enjoyed a 60-52 edge at intermission. Harden's only effective minutes happened in the second quarter, when he scored 12 points on 4-6 field goal shooting, but even those numbers are inflated by a gift from Oladipo with .1 second left: Harden was trapped and about to fling a desperation shot when Oladipo lightly bumped him, enabling Harden to parachute out of danger to the free throw line, where he made all three charity tosses. Those three donated points are more than he scored in the entire third quarter, as Maxey
scored 13 points to keep the 76ers within striking
distance while Harden had two points and two assists. Miami led 91-80
heading into the final stanza.
Less than three years ago, Daryl Morey proclaimed that Harden is the greatest scorer in NBA history. With the 76ers' season on the line for all intents and purposes (teams rarely come back from a 2-0 deficit), Harden produced two fourth quarter points while orchestrating an offense that shot 6-18 from the field (.333) and was outscored 28-23. Harden has been pulling this kind of choke job/disappearing act in the playoffs for a decade. Why are people pretending like this is something new? The NBA officiating regular season games correctly and not giving Harden cheap free throw attempts is new, but Harden struggling in the playoffs is not new.
One of Harden's favorite "concert tour" dates is 2-11, a performance that he has scheduled four times during his playoff career. Maybe he is saving that one for an elimination game; it would not be the first time he scheduled a 2-11 tour date for an elimination game.
When "stat gurus" began promoting "advanced basketball statistics," one of the major criticisms that they lobbed at old school NBA executives was that those executives regularly overpaid players because those executives allegedly did not know how to analytically evaluate basketball talent. Many "stat gurus" and their media Boswells got paid a lot of money to promote (and self-promote) such narratives. It will be fascinating to see if Morey, the poster child for the "stat gurus" and someone who has been a general manager for 14 years without reaching the NBA Finals even once, rewards Harden's "concert tour" with a contract extension of more than $200 million. The definitive book on the 76ers' journey from tanking to betting the house on Harden has yet to be written, but it most assuredly is not going to be the book that is inaccurately but amusingly titled Tanking to the Top. If Morey writes that nine figure check to Harden then "Tanking to Oblivion and Overpaying to the Bottom: How 'Advanced Basketball Statistics' Ruined the 76ers" would be a good book title.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey, Victor Oladipo
posted by David Friedman @ 11:43 PM
Harden's "Concert Tour" Continues as Heat Rout 76ers
"We on award tour with Muhammad, my man/Going each and every place with the mic in their hand/New York, NJ, N.C., VA."--A Tribe Called Quest, "Award Tour"
Jalen Rose had the line of the season when he said that James Harden's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates. Every time I watch Harden play now, I think of the classic A Tribe Called Quest song "Award Tour," but I insert my own lyrics as if Harden is the lead singer:
"We on award tour with Daryl Morey, my man/Going each and every place shooting bricks with either hand/Philly, Toronto, Miami."
Harden's "concert tour" rolled into Miami for a May 13 tour date as he shot 5-13 from the field in Miami's 106-92 game one second round win versus his Philadelphia 76ers. Harden finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers. Even with Joel Embiid out of the lineup because of a concussion and a fractured orbital bone, Harden was no better than the third best player on his team. Tobias Harris scored a game-high 27 points on 11-18 field goal shooting. As Shaquille O'Neal said during TNT's halftime show, Harris has the "triple green light" now because "He's the go-to guy." Harris showed once again that he can attack off of the dribble, make jumpers, and create plays for his teammates. Tyrese Maxey did not have a great game, but he kept attacking, and he finished with 19 points on 6-15 field goal shooting. In contrast, Harden--who is angling for a contract extension worth hundreds of millions of dollars and that would pay him past his 38th birthday--shot 1-4 from the field in the second half as the 76ers went from enjoying a 52-51 halftime lead to losing by double digits.
The Heat, playing without injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and with a sore-kneed Jimmy Butler, did not play their best game, but they pulled away in the fourth quarter as Harden watched and waited for someone to save the day. Tyler Herro led the Heat with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo, who should have received more opportunities in the absence of Embiid, finished with 24 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, plus 12 rebounds and four assists. Butler had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he shot just 5-16 from the field while looking nothing like the player who averaged more than 30 ppg in the first four games of the first round versus Atlanta before sitting out game five due to a knee injury.
Remember, when this season began we were told that Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving formed the nucleus of what could be the greatest offense ever. That is just another example of the extent to which many media members are deeply invested in the "James Harden is an all-time great" narrative; they voted him to the All-NBA First Team when he was not one of the league's top two guards, they gave him an MVP, and they even put him on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. These media members are never going to admit that they were wrong about Harden, so the new narrative emerging recently is that Harden--who is just 32 years old--has lost a step and does not have the skills that he supposedly used to have. However, anyone who has followed Harden for his entire career can apply the eye test and understand that Harden now is the same player that he has been ever since he fled Oklahoma City to be the number one option in Houston. For years, he relied on (1) being rewarded with free throw attempts after plowing into defenders, (2) traveling on his so-called "step back" move to gain space to shoot three pointers, and (3) being rewarded with three free throw attempts after falling to the ground like an assassination victim during his three point field goal attempts. In short, he did not master basketball but rather he mastered "flop and flail." This enabled Harden to "efficiently" score 25-30 points during games when he shot 5-17 from the field but made 15 or 20 free throws. Also, this made defenders so wary of being called for fouls that many coaches--most notably Gregg Popovich--instructed their players to guard Harden with their hands behind their backs. Obviously, it was a lot easier for Harden to make shots when his opponents literally played with their hands tied. It is telling that Harden's field goal percentage was never very good even during the years when defenders often avoided contesting his shots.
Harden has not slowed down, but the game has caught up with him. For example, consider what happened at the 6:11 mark of the first quarter of tonight's game: Harden made the exact same move at the exact same speed that he has done for a decade, but this time Harden was correctly whistled for a charge after he plowed into P.J. Tucker. The NBA has--finally--decided to officiate correctly. Now, when Harden has a "concert tour" date like his 5-13 performance versus Miami he ends up with 16 points instead of 30.
It's not too late for media members to admit that they were wrong about Harden--well, actually, it is a bit late, unless the league is going to retroactively reallocate awards to their rightful recipients. Adrian Dantley, who drew legitimate foul calls and had a real--i.e., non-traveling--step back move should have been on the 75th Anniversary Team (as should have Chris Bosh, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady). Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, and Damian Lillard are other overrated active players who should not have made the 75th Anniversary Team. Maybe a new generation of media members will do better in 25 years when the 100th Anniversary Team is selected.
The only "award" on Harden's "concert tour" should be "Most Overrated MVP" ever. This is not just about one game; anyone who has ever read my work knows better than to even dare suggest that I would base an overall evaluation of any player on his performance in just one game--even a game seven. For many years, I have criticized the high variance style favored by Daryl Morey and James Harden. Harden is who I said he was. Maybe someday more people will understand that truth, and adjust their historical rankings accordingly to give deserved credit to the players who were truly great.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro
posted by David Friedman @ 11:24 PM
Philadelphia Versus Atlanta Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Philadelphia (49-23) vs. #5 Atlanta (41-31)
Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1
Atlanta can win if…Trae Young averages at least 30 ppg, 10 apg, and .450 field goal shooting--in other words, if Young matches or exceeds his first round production. Also, it is vital that the Hawks' big men by committee combine to limit Joel Embiid to less than 25 ppg without having to rely on double teams that create driving lanes and/or open shots for Embiid's teammates (or, alternatively, Embiid's knee injury keeps him out of the lineup or reduces his productivity).
Philadelphia will win because…the 76ers are bigger, more talented, and have more depth. When healthy and motivated, Joel Embiid is a matchup nightmare. He averaged 24.0 ppg on .635 field goal shooting in four games versus the Washington Wizards in the first round (he missed one game due to a knee injury), but even more significant that Embiid's individual numbers are the 76ers' team numbers when he is on the court compared to when he is out of the game: the 76ers look like a championship contender when Embiid plays, but they just look like a good, solid team--at best--when he does not play. Ben Simmons, who nearly averaged a triple double in the first round (14.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 9.2 apg), must remain productive at both ends of the court. Tobias Harris led the 76ers in scoring in the first round (25.0 ppg) while also averaging 10.0 rpg; he is an All-Star caliber player whose size, mobility, and shooting touch create matchup problems.
Other things to consider: The Hawks have looked like a different team since Nate McMillan took over as coach from Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta started the season 14-20 under Pierce, but went 27-11 the rest of the way with McMillan at the helm. I was not sure to what extent that transformation would extend to the postseason, but the Hawks smothered the Knicks' Julius Randle (holding him to 18.0 ppg on .298 field goal shooting in a 4-1 first round victory). I underestimated the Hawks prior to the first round, and it is possible that I am still underestimating them, but even if one accepts the notion that the "new" Hawks are comparable to the 76ers the series should still tilt in Philadelphia's favor due to having the best individual player (Embiid) plus having home court advantage.
The main challenge in predicting the outcome of any series involving the 76ers is gauging Embiid's health, conditioning, and level of mental engagement.
For this round, I am making positive assumptions about Embiid that, if incorrect, will change the result, but I am picking Philadelphia to win in five games.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 7:59 PM
