20 Second Timeout

Hornets Douse Heat in Overtime Thriller, Trail Blazers Eclipse Suns With Big Fourth Quarter Comeback

The NBA Play-In Tournament has produced more than its share of boring blowouts, but Tuesday night featured two competitive and exciting games. The action opened with the Charlotte Hornets' 127-126 overtime win versus the Miami Heat--an instant classic featuring 16 lead changes, 17 ties, and many clutch plays by both teams. LaMelo Ball not only scored a game-high 30 points, but he delivered the game-winning shot on a powerful drive to the hoop with 4.7 seconds left in overtime. The Heat had no timeouts, so Davion Mitchell raced to the hoop to try to score, but Miles Bridges swatted away his layup attempt as time expired. 

Ball shot just 12-31 from the field--including 2-16 from three point range--but in addition to the game-winning shot he had a game-high 10 assists plus the game's second best plus/minus number (+15). Bridges had 28 points and nine rebounds while shooting 5-10 from three point range. Brandon Miller contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists while also shooting 5-10 from three point range. Coby White scored 19 points, shot 5-8 from three point range, and notched the game's best plus/minus number (+21). The Hornets had 17 offensive rebounds, and they outrebounded the Heat 54-48 overall.

Mitchell paced the Heat with 28 points, Andrew Wiggins scored 27 points, and Tyler Herro added 23 points despite shooting just 7-18 from the field. Kal'el Ware had 12 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots. Norman Powell--the Heat's only All-Star this season--scored 11 points in just 19 minutes and was the only Heat player who had a double digit plus/minus number (+11). 

The Hornets took a 26-18 lead at the 3:33 mark of the first quarter on the strength of offensive rebounding and three point shooting, but the Heat trimmed the deficit to 26-24 by the end of the first quarter, foreshadowing how this game would be a back and forth struggle. 

The Hornets led 30-26 at the 10:58 mark of the second quarter when Ball grabbed the ankle of an off balance Bam Adebayo, who went crashing to the floor and left the game with a lower back injury--but no foul was called on the play, and the referees did not review the sequence, much to the chagrin of Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, who said after the game that Ball should have been ejected. Lead referee Zach Zarba explained to Amazon Prime's Cassidy Hubbarth that a change of possession occurred before the referees had a chance to stop play, so by rule they were not able to review what happened; this seems to be a major loophole in the rules: why should a player get away with a flagrant foul because the referees were looking the wrong way for a split second? If a player is injured badly enough that he cannot return to the game, there should be some mechanism for the referees to review how that injury happened. Adebayo had six points, three rebounds, and a +1 plus/minus number in 11 minutes up to that point.

The Heat battled back to go up 39-37 midway through the second quarter, and they enjoyed a 54-52 halftime lead. Mitchell and Wiggins led the Heat with 10 first half points each, while Ball scored 17 first half points for the Hornets, who shot just 7-21 (.333) from beyond the arc.

The Hornets made a 10-0 run to take an 84-79 lead at the 1:28 mark of the third quarter. During the ensuing timeout, Hubbarth reported that Adebayo would not return to the game. The Hornets pushed the margin to eight (93-85) early in the fourth quarter before the Heat countered with a 12-0 run to take a 97-93 lead with 7:25 remaining in regulation. Herro's three pointer at the 2:16 mark put the Heat up 111-105, but Bridges' three pointer cut the lead in half and then Miller drained a three pointer after Jaime Jaquez Jr. split a pair of free throws. Herro made two free throws to put Miami up 114-111. The Hornets called timeout, and then White hit a tough three pointer from the corner to tie the score; an interesting aspect of that play is that Kon Knueppel--who led the NBA this season with 273 three point field goals made, setting the NBA rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record--was relegated to the bench and not even used as a decoy. Knueppel did not play at all in the overtime, and he finished with just six points on 2-12 field goal shooting, including 0-6 from beyond the arc. Herro's three pointer at the buzzer was off the mark, sending the game to overtime.

The Hornets led 123-118 at the 1:33 mark of overtime, but Herro went on a 6-0 run to give the Heat a 126-125 lead with 8.7 seconds remaining. Herro's burst included three clutch free throws after being fouled by Ball on a three point field goal attempt. Ball made up for his foul gaffe by scoring the game-winning layup.  

The Hornets can grab the Eastern Conference's eighth seed with a win on Friday, but the Heat are eliminated from playoff contention. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's doubleheader, Deni Avdija poured in a game-high 41 points on 15-22 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high 12 assists and grabbing seven rebounds to power the Portland Trail Blazers to a 114-110 road win versus the Phoenix Suns. This clinched Portland's first playoff berth since 2021. The Suns can still make the playoffs with a victory on Friday night versus the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State Warriors game. Avdija looked like an in-shape, healthy Luka Doncic as he repeatedly broke down the Suns' defense with dribble drives culminating in shots in the paint, drawn fouls, or passes deftly sprayed to open perimeter shooters. Two-time NBA champion Jrue Holiday added 21 points, while Jerami Grant exploded for 16 points off of the bench in 19 minutes.

Jalen Green paced the Suns with 35 points. Devin Booker scored an inefficient 22 points, shooting just 7-17 from the field and 8-13 from the free throw line. Dillon Brooks had 20 points on 6-10 field goal shooting before fouling out with 16.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter. 

The Suns jumped out to a 14-7 lead by the 8:40 mark of the first quarter, and it looked like the moment might be a little too big for the young Trail Blazers, but Avdija settled his team down with 12 points and five assists in the second quarter as the Trail Blazers forged a 55-41 lead at the 5:23 mark of the second quarter after Grant made a three pointer. The Suns did not let the game get out of reach, and they pulled to within 65-62 by halftime. Green scored 22 first half points, while Avdija had 16 points and seven assists.

The Trail Blazers pushed their lead to 11 points twice during the third quarter, but they clung to an 83-82 lead heading into the final stanza. Green's jumper at the 11:44 mark of the fourth quarter gave the Suns their first lead of the second half, 84-83. The Suns extended their margin to 11 points twice during the fourth quarter, but an 8-0 Portland run slashed the lead to 100-97 with 4:14 remaining in the fourth quarter. At that point, Donovan Clingan committed a flagrant foul against Brooks, who sank two free throws to extend the Suns' lead to 102-97. Green's three pointer with 3:31 to go put the Suns up 105-97, but a 7-0 Portland run in the next 1:02 made the score 105-104. Booker split a pair of free throws and Grant answered with a three pointer to put the Trail Blazers up 107-106. The lead changed hands four times in the final 1:34, with Avdija putting the Trail Blazers up for good with driving layup with 16.1 seconds remaining. Green missed a long three pointer on the Suns' final possession, and then Grant ended the scoring with a fast break dunk.

In my NBA Play-Tournament preview, I picked Charlotte to beat Miami and Phoenix to beat Portland, so I am 1-1 so far.

Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, LaMelo Ball, Miami Heat, Miles Bridges, NBA Play-In Tournament, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 AM

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Balanced Celtics Overcome Doncic's Triple Double to Take 2-0 Lead

Luka Doncic's seventh triple double of the 2024 NBA playoffs was not enough to prevent the Boston Celtics from beating his Dallas Mavericks 105-98 to take a 2-0 NBA Finals lead before the series shifts to Dallas for games three and four. It is a bad sign for the Mavericks that the Celtics won despite narrowly losing the rebounding battle (43-41) and shooting just 10-39 (.256) from three point range; this was the Celtics' "B" game at best, and they still nearly won by double digits. In game one, the Celtics were at their best while building the largest first quarter lead (37-20) in NBA Finals history before cruising to a 107-89 win, but in game two the Celtics demonstrated that they are so superior to the Mavericks in terms of overall size and in terms of having multiple players who are elite at both ends of the court that they have  sufficient margin for error to win without being at their best.

Boston's Jrue Holiday was the best all-around guard--and perhaps the best all-around player--in game two with a team-high 26 points on 11-14 field goal shooting, a game-high 11 rebounds, three assists, and no turnovers in 41 minutes. Milwaukee's trade of Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard--which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday from Portland--turned out to be disastrous for the Bucks and a blessing for the Celtics. Holiday has 38 points and no turnovers so far in this series, the second most points with no turnovers in the first two games of the NBA Finals since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers in the 1977-78 season, trailing only Michael Jordan (70 points and no turnovers in the first two games of the 1998 NBA Finals, also known as the Chicago Bulls' "Last Dance.").

Jaylen Brown had another strong game, contributing 21 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, with the only blemish being his team-high six turnovers. "Stat gurus" who worship "advanced basketball statistics" may focus on Jayson Tatum's 6-22 field goal shooting, but Tatum had a game-high 12 assists plus nine rebounds; his defense, rebounding, and playmaking were crucial for Boston, and his 18 points on inefficient shooting were a bonus. Numbers matter, but what matters more is that Tatum impacts the game at both ends of the court, and that his talent distorts Dallas' defense, creating open high percentage shots for his teammates (even on plays for which Tatum did not earn assists). Derrick White added 18 points and five rebounds. Game one hero Kristaps Porzingis had 12 points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 23 minutes before sitting out the final 4:40 of the game after tweaking his lower left leg. Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf strain, so his health status is a cause for concern for Boston even though he insisted right after the game that he will play in game three no matter what. 

Doncic led the Mavericks in scoring (32 points), rebounding (11 rebounds) and assists (11), but he had a game-high eight turnovers and his 12-21 field goal shooting is a testament to his immense talent, because he had to work very hard for every shot that he made. The Celtics defended Doncic one on one for the most part, with Brown and Tatum shouldering the bulk of the load and each doing an excellent job even though Doncic posted gaudy boxscore numbers. P.J. Washington had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Kyrie Irving again fell well short of expectations, finishing with 16 points on 7-18 field goal shooting. He added six assists but he still has not made a three point field goal in this series, and his 2-2 free throw shooting marked his first free throw attempts in two games versus Boston's elite defense; the Irving redemption narrative being forced down our throats by many media members is on hold for at least one more game--but even if Irving plays well in game three his unrepentant antisemitism and his complicity with China's slave labor policies/widespread human rights abuses should not be forgiven or forgotten; those things are much more important than how well he shoots or how his team performs.

It is fair to say that we need a recount on the assertion by TNT's Stan Van Gundy that Doncic and Irving are the best offensive backcourt of all-time; so far in this series, they have been the best offensive backcourt for one quarter out of eight: in the first quarter of game two, Doncic (13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting) and Irving (eight points on 4-5 field goal shooting) staked the Mavericks to a 28-25 lead before combining to score 27 points on 10-27 field goal shooting the rest of the way.

The biggest threat to the Celtics' championship hopes is their propensity for squandering too many offensive possessions with low percentage three pointers early in the shot clock; such shots are not conducive for team success in general, and they are particularly senseless in this series when the Celtics enjoy such pronounced matchup advantages every time Brown, Holiday, or Tatum attack the hoop off of the dribble. The Mavericks are just not able to consistently stay in front of Brown, Holiday, or Tatum, which results in either high percentage close range field goal attempts or else high percentage drive and kick three pointers (which are much better shots than three pointers jacked up early in the shot clock without first challenging the Mavericks in the paint).

Dallas fans may say that the Celtics merely did what they were supposed to do at home and that the Mavericks can get back in this series by holding serve at home, but the reality is that teams that have taken a 2-0 NBA Finals lead won the series 31 out of 36 times--and the five exceptions to that historical rule featured all-time greats Bill Russell (1969 Celtics), Bill Walton (1977 Trail Blazers), Dwyane Wade (2006 Heat), LeBron James (2016 Cavaliers), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021 Milwaukee Bucks). If the Mavericks will four of the next five games, it will be because Doncic has one of the greatest Finals performances of all-time and because the Celtics drifted away from high percentage paint shots to low percentage three point shots.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 3:03 AM

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Celtics Sweep Pacers to Earn Second NBA Finals Appearance in Three Years

The Boston Celtics defeated the Indiana Pacers 105-102 to sweep the Eastern Conference Finals and return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three years. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 29 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, and his overall excellence during this series earned him the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. His teammate Jayson Tatum won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP in 2022, and Jimmy Butler received the honor last year. Tatum was an MVP candidate in this series as well, and he had 26 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists in the series-clincher. As usual, Jrue Holiday (17 points, nine rebounds) and Derrick White (16 points, four rebounds, four assists, five steals) made strong contributions at both ends of the court. White's three pointer with 45 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot and the final points in the series. The Celtics are playing so well that it is easy to forget that they are missing one of their top players, injured former All-Star Kristaps Porzingis.

Playing without injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton for the second straight game, the Pacers fought until the end. Andrew Nembhard posted Halibuton-like numbers, leading the team in scoring (24 points) and assists (game-high 10). Pascal Siakam added 19 points and a team-high 10 rebounds, and T.J. McConnell added 15 points off of the bench, but the Pacers needed more than eight points and four rebounds from Myles Turner.

The Celtics led 58-57 at halftime, but fell behind by as many as six points in the third quarter, and trailed 83-80 heading into the final stanza. After Nembhard's free throw pushed the margin to nine (94-85) at the 8:57 mark of the fourth quarter, it looked for a moment like the Pacers might extend the series, but the Celtics chipped away until White drilled the game-winner on a drive and kick by Brown. Three of the four games in this series were close at the end, but the Celtics proved their superiority by winning all three of those games.

It is easy to knock the Celtics for a variety of real and imagined reasons--and people will continue to do so at least until the Celtics win an NBA championship--but they have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight seasons, including each of the past three, and they are now in the NBA Finals for the second time in there years. Here is the list of teams that have accomplished those feats since the Chicago Bulls' 1998 "Last Dance":

1) Detroit Pistons (reached Eastern Conference Finals 2003-08, reached NBA Finals 2004-05)

2) Golden State Warriors (reached Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals 2015-19, 22)

Yes, the Pistons capped off their run by winning the 2004 NBA championship, and the Warriors won NBA championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022--but does the failure (thus far) to win an NBA championship render all of the Celtics' other winning irrelevant? The Celtics can make that question moot by winning the NBA championship in the next few weeks, but I would argue that even if they fall short they have still been one of the most successful NBA teams of the past two decades. There are many teams that have received more hype while accomplishing a lot less. The Tatum-Brown duo has accomplished a lot more than most of the various "super teams" that have been built and then imploded in the past decade or so.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Indiana Pacers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM

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Celtics Rally From 18 Point Deficit to Put Pacers in 3-0 Hole

Jrue Holiday--who was so sick earlier in the day that he missed shootaround--scored Boston's last five points in the final 38.9 seconds as the Celtics recovered from an 18 point deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers 114-111 and take a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead. Holiday finished with 14 points, nine rebounds, three assists and three steals, but Boston's biggest star overall was Jayson Tatum, who had a game-high 36 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. Jaylen Brown had another strong performance (24 points on 10-18 field goal shooting), and soon to be 38 year old Al Horford had his second flashback performance in the past four games with 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocked shots. Horford shot 8-14 from the field, including 7-12 from three point range. Derrick White added 13 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and three steals as all five Boston starters scored at least 13 points. Boston's bench is depleted with Horford taking the starting spot of the injured Kristaps Porzingis, but Boston still has the league's best starting five.

Andrew Nembhard led the Pacers in scoring (32 points) and assists (nine). T.J. McConnell had an excellent game off of the bench (23 points, nine rebounds, six assists and just one turnover in 29 minutes). Myles Turner added 22 points while tying Tatum for game-high rebounding honors with 10. Pascal Siakam scored 22 points and dished for six assists. That quartet played very well, but the other Pacers combined to score just 12 points on 6-19 (.316) field goal shooting. The Pacers' ball movement, player movement, shooting, and passing were impeccable for the first two and a half quarters, but they did not maintain that high level execution in the game's final 18 minutes.

When Indiana's All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton was sidelined with a hamstring injury during Boston's 126-110 game two win, it looked as if Boston would have an easy path to two more victories to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals--and Boston seemed to confirm that view by storming to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but then Indiana outscored Boston 49-22 to take a 64-46 second quarter lead. The Pacers led 69-57 at halftime, shooting .636 from the field in a performance reminiscent of their sizzling shooting in their game seven win versus the New York Knicks.

It is easy to criticize the Celtics for taking things for granted and losing focus, but the Pacers should also get credit; they have several very talented players other than Haliburton, and those players played very well, but they just could not quite sustain that level for the entire game, particularly after the Celtics' defensive energy and intensity went up a notch down the stretch in the third quarter. The Pacers led 84-66 at the 6:04 mark of the third quarter, but the Celtics cut that lead in half and entered the fourth quarter trailing 90-81. 

The Pacers never regained a double digit lead, and the Celtics chipped away during the final stanza, culminating in Holiday's two game-winning plays; his driving basket/three point play gave the Celtics their first lead (112-111) since the opening moments of the second quarter. After the teams exchanged misses, Holiday stole the ball from Nembhard and made two free throws to push the Celtics' advantage to 114-111. The Pacers called a timeout after Holiday's second free throw, and they ran an interesting inbounds play with 1.7 second left: four Pacers lined up in the backcourt like NFL wide receivers, and then they ran "crossing patterns" as they sprinted past midcourt, freeing Nesmith to take a corner three pointer; it is difficult to get off a quality shot against a good defensive team when you need a three pointer to tie with less than two seconds left, but the Pacers executed that situation as well as possible. As the saying goes, it is a make or miss league, and Nesmith missed.

Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle vowed after the game that the Pacers will go after the Celtics with even more intensity in game four--but the reality is that no NBA team has ever won a playoff series after trailing 3-0, and it is difficult to see the Pacers making such history under any circumstances, let alone without Haliburton.

Labels: Al Horford, Andrew Nembhard, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:23 AM

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Celtics Acquire Jrue Holiday From Trail Blazers in Exchange for Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III

While the Portland Trail Blazers make aggressive moves as part of their long term plan for a post-Damian Lillard future, Eastern Conference contenders are receiving players who they think can help them win big right now. First, Portland sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee in a three team deal, and now Portland sent Jrue Holiday--acquired from Milwaukee as part of the Lillard trade--to the Boston Celtics in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and two first round draft picks. 

The Trail Blazers may not be done dealing, but at this point they already have turned an aging, undersized guard who led them to one Western Conference Finals in 11 years into Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III and three first round draft picks plus two pick swaps. The Trail Blazers are not going to win an NBA title any time soon, but it would not be crazy to suggest that their overall roster right now is better than it was before trading Lillard, and it would not at all be surprising if the rebuilding Trail Blazers win at least as many games in the 2023-24 season as they did during the 2022-23 season (33).

Meanwhile, the Celtics not only have one of the NBA's best duos with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but a good case could be made that the top six players in their rotation are collectively better than any other team's top six players: Tatum and Brown are now flanked by Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Derrick White. Remember that the Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year with a six man rotation consisting of Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, Horford, White, and Brogdon. Holiday and Porzingis are without question upgrades over Smart and Brogdon. 

It is interesting that Holiday demonstrated at least as much market value as Lillard--and more market value than James Harden, who has hardly drawn a sniff of interest around the league. Media members may be very impressed by Harden and Lillard, but when teams have to make critical (and expensive) personnel decisions we see that Lillard and Harden are not viewed as number one options for championship caliber teams: Milwaukee brought in Lillard to be the number two option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Boston gave up at least as much value to get Holiday to be a third or fourth option as Portland received for Lillard.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Malcolm Brogdon, Portland Trail Blazers, Robert Williams III

posted by David Friedman @ 10:49 PM

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Initial Impressions of the Three Team Trade Sending Damian Lillard From Portland to Milwaukee

Once again, the vaunted (and highly paid) NBA insiders were right: Damian Lillard is heading to Miami!

Oh, wait--I mean, Damian Lillard is heading to Toronto!

Never mind--in a deal not predicted by anyone, the Portland Trail Blazers have reportedly shipped Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in a three team trade that will send Jrue Holiday from Milwaukee to Portland. The Phoenix Suns joined the party by trading Deandre Ayton to Portland in exchange for Trail Blazers Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson. The Suns also acquired Milwaukee's Grayson Allen, while Portland is receiving Toumani Camara (the 52nd overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft) from Phoenix, and multiple draft picks from Milwaukee. I emphasize "reportedly" because the same wizards who had no clue that this deal would happen have been the first people to "break" the news before the transactions have been officially confirmed, and we all know the great value of non-emergency "breaking news."

Assuming that what has been reported is accurate--at least in terms of the most prominent players involved in the trade--what should we make of this deal?

Damian Lillard--who valued loyalty above everything until he no longer valued loyalty over everything--averaged a career-high 32.3 ppg last season. He is a dynamic scorer and an excellent passer--and he is also 33 years old, undersized (generously listed as 6-2, but probably shorter), a non-factor (at best) defensively, and injury-prone (he has played in 67 games or less in each of the past four seasons). Lillard is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, which must have surprised and disappointed more deserving players such as Chris Bosh, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady.

By the way, it is ridiculous to assert that Portland "owed" it to Lillard to trade him wherever he wanted to go. In 2022, Lillard signed a two year $121.77 million contract extension to stay with Portland instead of becoming a free agent; if Lillard wanted to choose his destination on the way out, that was his opportunity--but Lillard understood that no other team would be willing (or able) to pay him as much as Portland did, so he took the cash and gave up the option of choosing where to go on the way out of Portland. During Lillard's Portland career, the Trail Blazers paid him more than $220 million; that is nearly a quarter of a billion dollars, so Portland paid Lillard generational wealth and owes him nothing else. It should also be noted that all of that money bought four playoff series wins spread out over 11 seasons and 12 playoff series. Two of those four playoff series wins happened during Portland's fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, where "Dame Dolla" and crew got swept by the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant. After 2019, the Trail Blazers lost in the first round in 2020 and 2021 before missing the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. If Lillard's salary was based on being a superstar whose skills correlate with playoff success, then it could be argued he owes Portland!

Jrue Holiday is a 33 year old two-time All-Star who made the All-Defensive Team in each of his three seasons with Milwaukee (and has earned five All-Defensive Team selections overall). He was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 NBA championship team. Last season, he exceeded his career averages (16.4 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.1 rpg) in scoring (19.3 ppg), assists (7.4 apg), and rebounding (5.1 rpg). His shooting splits last season were .479/.384/.859, but his playoff shooting splits have consistently been worse than that throughout his career. 

Deandre Ayton has averaged a double double in each of his five NBA seasons, and his career averages of 16.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg are quite good for a player who has never been the first (or second) option. Nevertheless, something is missing in terms of attitude/motor--or, at least that is the Suns' story--so it is not surprising that the Suns parted ways with the talented big man.

A good rule of thumb is that the "winner" of an NBA trade is the team that received the best player. Conventional wisdom would say that Lillard is clearly the best player and thus Milwaukee clearly won the deal--but it must be remembered that Milwaukee's primary goal is to win as many championships as possible before Giannis Antetokounmpo retires (or leaves via free agency), so Milwaukee only "won" if Lillard is a better fit on a championship team than Holiday. This is not about "logo shots" or marketing or popularity. The Bucks won one championship in three seasons with Holiday; it will be interesting to see (1) if Lillard has three productive seasons left and (2) if Milwaukee wins three, two, one, or zero championships in the next three seasons. 

I planned to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference before this trade, and I still plan to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference now--but I am skeptical of the notion that the Bucks are significantly better after swapping Holiday for Lillard. I like the Bucks because of Antetokounmpo's greatness, and his ability to bring out the best in his teammates, not because of Lillard's "logo shots" and situational loyalty.

As for Portland, the Trail Blazers were going nowhere fast with Lillard, and they are going nowhere fast now--but that does not mean this was a bad trade for them. Lillard put them over a barrel by not only demanding to be traded but by insisting that he would only play for Miami, a statement that limited his trade value and curtailed Portland's options. Portland General Manager Joe Cronin deserves credit for not caving in to Lillard and for creating a better deal than anyone thought he could.

The Suns will ride or die with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal doing the heavy lifting. If each member of that trio is healthy and productive, the Suns will be formidable. Nurkic may fit in better than Ayton from a chemistry standpoint, but Ayton and Nurkic are comparable in terms of overall talent/impact (though their skill sets are not identical). However, Nurkic is injury-prone, so chemistry will not matter unless he is actually on the court.

The bottom line is that each team needed to make a move, for different reasons. The Trail Blazers had to get the most that they could for the disgruntled Lillard, the Bucks had to do something to appease Antetokounmpo (who has recently made comments suggesting that he might leave in free agency if the roster is not upgraded), and the Suns had to add some depth while also figuring out how to either bring Ayton into the fold or send him on his way.

Thus, from the standpoint of reasonable expectations and available options, each team probably did about as well as possible in this deal.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 AM

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Celtics Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals After Burying Bucks Under Deluge of Three Pointers

The Boston Celtics set a game seven record with 22 three pointers, and their long range bombing blew open a close game in the second half as the Celtics routed the Milwaukee Bucks 109-81 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee's general strategy is to pack the paint while conceding three point shots, and their specific game seven strategy was to force Grant Williams to beat them from beyond the arc. Williams responded with a playoff career-high 27 points while shooting 10-22 from the field, including 7-18 from three point range. Williams shot just 2-14 from three point range in the previous four games in this series, so you cannot fault the Bucks' strategy but you also have to give Williams credit for stepping up in the Celtics' biggest game of the season (at least up to this point). Jayson Tatum battered the Bucks with 46 points in game six but the Bucks limited him to 23 points on 7-14 field goal shooting in game seven. Tatum had eight rebounds, four assists, and seven turnovers. Jaylen Brown added 19 points and eight rebounds. Brown may not be as flashy or explosive as Tatum, but he is a consistent two-way player and his production is critical to Boston's success. Payton Pritchard scored 14 points in 17 minutes off of the bench.

It must be emphasized that the effort that the Bucks expended to contain Tatum created open shots for his teammates; for some odd reason, this effect is only called "gravity" when it is attributed to Stephen Curry, but a big player like Tatum who scores, rebounds, passes, and defends at a high level has a greater impact than a small player whose main weapon is long range shooting. Tatum is the type of player who can lead a team to a championship, as opposed to just being the most highly touted member of an ensemble cast that wins a championship. Tatum has not yet won a championship, but he has repeatedly proven that he can be an impact performer in the playoffs against elite competition; just this year alone, he outplayed Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets in the first round before leading his team to a second round series win against defending champion Milwaukee and two-time regular season MVP/one-time Finals MVP Giannis Antetokoumpo.

Antetokoumpo almost had a triple double in the first half, and he finished with 25 points, 20 rebounds, and nine assists. His final numbers were not efficient (10-26 field goal shooting, five turnovers), but his effort is unquestioned; he played hard at both ends of the court, and his scoring, passing, screening, and ability to draw double teams accounted for most of the Bucks' offense. Antetokounmpo became the first player in NBA playoff history to have at least 200 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 50 assists in one series. He is just the third player in playoff history to have at least three 40 point playoff games versus the Celtics, joining Jerry West and LeBron James. 

What has stuck out to me throughout Antetokounmpo's career is that he has a pure basketball spirit: he enjoys competition while being gracious as both a winner and a loser, he plays hard all of the time at both ends of the court, he is completely devoid of drama or pettiness, and when he plays there is never even a hint that he is thinking about his numbers to the detriment of what the team needs for him to do. During Milwaukee's strong first quarter stretch, Jeff Van Gundy noted that Antetokounmpo was doing everything possible to empower his teammates: setting screens, drawing double teams, making great passes. Van Gundy added that Antetokounmpo did many valuable things that do not show up in the boxscore. That is remarkable when you consider how consistently great his boxscore numbers are. After the game, Antetokounmpo said that he did not consider the first seven seasons of his career as losing seasons just because the team did not win a championship, and he does not consider this season to be a losing season either. He said that each year that you don't win a title is a learning experience that can provide knowledge and fuel for future seasons. 

If you think that Antetokounmpo's .385 field goal shooting in this game is equivalent to .385 field goal shooting by a player who does not rebound, who holds on to the basketball to only make assist passes, and who thinks defense is the thing surrounding his yard then you just don't understand basketball. Yes, it would be optimal for Antetokounmpo to shoot better from the field. No, this game does not damage his legacy because (1) he is already a basketball "made man" with a championship/Finals MVP and (2) he played the right way in this game. Greatness is about not only outcome, but also attitude, preparation, and work ethic.

The Bucks won the rebounding battle 56-48, and they outscored the Celtics in the paint 48-26, but the Bucks could not overcome the three pointers made differential (22-4), which set a game seven record. The Bucks' 4-33 three point shooting (.121) is the worst three point percentage ever for a team that attempted at least 30 three pointers in a playoff game. The three point shooting is just one example of how Antetokounmpo's supporting cast did not provide enough help at either end of the court; of course, the major factor here is the knee injury suffered by Khris Middleton during the first round that sidelined Middleton for the rest of the 2022 postseason. Jrue Holiday scored 21 points in game seven, but he shot just 9-21 from the field. Brook Lopez was solid (15 points, 10 rebounds), but the only other Buck to score in double figures was Bobby Portis (10 points).

The Bucks led by as much as 10 points during the first quarter, and they were still ahead 26-20 at the end of the stanza, but building that tenuous lead required a performance from Antetokounmpo that was not sustainable for four quarters: 10 points, eight rebounds, six assists, no turnovers, 3-6 field goal shooting. Those numbers project to 40 points, 32 rebounds, and 24 assists for a whole game! The only player in NBA history who might have been able to post 40-32-24 was Wilt Chamberlain. Anteotkounmpo finished the first half with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists, becoming the first player to post such a first half stat line in a playoff game in the past 25 years--but the Bucks already trailed 48-43. The Celtics outscored the Bucks 13-6 in the first 2:24 of the third quarter, and the Celtics led by at least 10 points the rest of the way.

After the game, Boston Coach Ime Udoka made a telling remark: "This is what we played for, why we played the season out, to have home court advantage in a game seven. If you believe in the basketball gods, those things matter." I criticized the Bucks at the time when they rested their starters for the final game of the season with playoff seeding on the line, and even as I picked them to win game seven I noted that karma is at work with the Bucks forced to play on the road in the decisive game.

Remember when some commentators said that the Celtics should break up the Tatum-Brown duo? The Celtics are now making their fourth Eastern Conference Finals appearance in the past six seasons. Tatum was not on the first of those Eastern Conference Finalists (and Brown was not a star on that 2017 squad) but they have grown into stardom together. Antetokounmpo ignored the screaming that he needed to leave Milwaukee to win a title, and he was rewarded with a championship as he and Middleton evolved into a great duo (which became a trio after Holiday signed with the Bucks last season). It was a joy to watch Antetokounmpo stay the course in Milwaukee and win a title; if Tatum accomplishes the same in Boston that will also be great for the NBA--much better for the league than seeing teams benefit from tanking, or teams throwing talent together in an attempt to win instantly without regard to character and skill set.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Grant Williams, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM

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Celtics Avoid Elimination, Defeat Bucks in Milwaukee to Tie Series at 3-3

One of the paradoxes of the NBA playoffs is that home court advantage is significant in the long run over a large sample size of games, but within the confines of a series between two evenly matched teams either team can win on the road. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks each won 51 regular season games, they tied their regular season series at 2-2, and now they are tied 3-3 in their second round best of seven series after Boston won 108-95 in Milwaukee. The teams could not be more evenly matched, yet this playoff series has had some anomalies: three of the games have been decided by at least 10 points, and the road team has won four games. 

Jayson Tatum led Boston in game six with 46 points on 17-32 field goal shooting, including 7-15 from three point range. He also had nine rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number. Giannis Antetokounmpo nearly matched Tatum shot for shot (44 points on 14-30 field goal shooting), but the difference is that two other Celtics scored more than 20 points but no other Buck scored more than 17 points. Jaylen Brown had 22 points on 7-16 field goal shooting, and Marcus Smart added 21 points on 8-16 field goal shooting. In contrast, Jrue Holiday scored 17 points on 7-17 field goal shooting, and Pat Connaughton contributed 14 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton was keenly felt by the Bucks in this game, and has been a significant factor as the Bucks' 2-1 series lead slipped to a 3-3 tie.

Antetokounmpo had a game-high 20 rebounds, becoming the first player to have a 40-20 playoff game since Shaquille O'Neal did it in the 2001 NBA Finals versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Antetokounmpo shot 14-15 from the free throw line and he had a team-high six assists. It is not reasonable to expect more from Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks must get more from his supporting cast.

Milwaukee has won twice in Boston during this series, and Milwaukee won game seven in Brooklyn during last year's playoffs, so we know the Bucks are capable of beating the Celtics on Sunday. However, the most difficult road game to win in a series is game seven. In my 2022 Playoff Predictions, I picked the Bucks to win the NBA title but I also sounded a cautionary note about the way that they voluntarily gave up the second seed on the final day of the season to set up a first round matchup with the Chicago Bulls: "I do not like the way that the Bucks rested their starters in the final game of the season to 'clinch' the third seed instead of fighting for the second seed, but there is no denying that this looks like a great first round matchup for the Bucks (who may regret not having home court advantage in the second round if they face the Celtics)." I picked the Bucks to win this series in six games, but I again criticized the way that the Bucks manipulated the standings: "As much as I respect the Bucks, I did not like it when they did not play their normal starting lineup in the final game of the regular season, content to lose that game, drop to the third seed, and face the Bulls in the first round even if that cost them home court advantage in the second round. Neither the Nets nor the Bulls offered much resistance in the first round, but now the Celtics enjoy home court advantage in this series. That could be an important factor if this series goes the distance, but I think that both of these teams can win on the road, and that the Bucks will take the pivotal game five in Boston before winning at home in game six to close out the series."

The moment of potential regret for the Bucks that I alluded to before the playoffs began has now arrived, and some might call it karma for messing with the basketball gods by not trying to win the 82nd regular season game. I am not one of those analysts/commentators who changes his predictions after every game during a series. I picked the Bucks to win the series in six games, which will not happen, but I still believe that the Bucks are the slightly better team and that they will find a way to win game seven. 

Labels: Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:57 PM

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Instant Classic: Bucks Come Back From 14 Point Deficit to Edge Celtics, 110-107

Milwaukee's 110-107 game five win at Boston had it all: big performances by each team's superstar, clutch plays by both teams, and a suspenseful, dramatic conclusion. The Celtics led for most of the game, were up 93-79 with 10:16 remaining in the fourth quarter, and were ahead 105-99 at the 2:12 mark after Al Horford's follow slam. The Bucks showed their championship poise by closing the game with an 11-2 run that included crucial free throws, big shots, and some sensational defensive plays. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 11 rebounds, but he did not play a perfect game; he committed seven turnovers and he only shot 6-10 from the free throw line--but being a superstar is about impacting the outcome of the game, not about being perfect. Antetokounmpo made his presence felt at both ends of the court, and by the end of the game he was bloodied--play had to be halted twice late in the game so that the Bucks' medical staff could stop blood from pouring out of Antetokounmpo's face--but not bowed. Jrue Holiday continued to struggle with his shot (9-24 field goal shooting) but he made some of the game's biggest plays, and he finished with 24 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high eight assists. Bobby Portis shot just 4-14 from the field, but he chased down a game-high 15 rebounds, and his putback with 11.4 seconds remaining proved to be the game-winning basket. 

Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 34 points and he committed just one turnover in 42 minutes. He also had six rebounds and four assists. The only blemish was his poor three point shooting (2-11), which dragged down his overall field goal shooting (12-29). Jaylen Brown had an excellent all-around game (26 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, six assists). Game four hero Al Horford made some key plays but he did not come close to replicating his 30 point performance, finishing with eight points, eight rebounds, and six assists. 

The tightly contested first quarter featured four lead changes, and ended with Milwaukee up, 28-26. The Celtics jumped out to a 51-38 lead late in the second quarter, but the Bucks rallied to cut the margin to 54-47 by halftime. Even though the Bucks trailed, they stayed true to their game plan of dominating the paint and forcing the Celtics to score from the three point arc; the Bucks won the first half rebounding battle 28-19, and they held the Celtics to 6-21 three point shooting (.286). The Bucks' main first half problems were too many turnovers (nine, compared to Boston's two), and poor field goal shooting (.396). In the second half, the Bucks shot much better (.477), committed just four turnovers (compared to Boston's eight), and outrebounded the Celtics 21-17. The Bucks' advantages in those categories enabled them to survive Boston's .538 second half field goal shooting.

The third quarter featured runs by both teams, but ended with the Celtics adding just two points to their halftime advantage to enter the fourth quarter up, 86-77. A quick 7-2 Boston burst early in the fourth quarter made it seem like this might be the Celtics' night, but the Bucks spent the rest of the final stanza chipping away until they pulled within two points, 101-99, on a Holiday jump shot with 4:09 remaining. However, Horford's spectacular tip dunk at the 2:12 mark put Boston up 105-99. Portis missed a long two point jumper, but Wes Matthews grabbed the rebound and passed to Antetokoumpo, who calmly drained a three pointer. The teams traded misses, and then Antetokounmpo got a steal that the Bucks converted into a Holiday three pointer that tied the game at 105-105. Portis fouled Tatum on a drive, and Tatum's two free throws with 31.4 seconds left gave Boston a 107-105 lead. Antetokounmpo countered with a drive, and he was fouled by Grant Williams. Antetokounmpo made the first free throw but he missed the second free throw. Portis corralled the miss and scored what turned out to be the game-winning layup--but the game was still far from over. Marcus Smart drove the baseline but was denied at the hoop on a spectacular block by Holiday, who then saved the possession by throwing the ball off of Smart. Pat Connaughton nailed two free throws after the Celtics committed a take foul, and then Holiday sealed the win by stealing the ball from Smart in the open court. 

The effort level and intensity displayed by both teams were outstanding, and epitomized what game five in a 2-2 series is supposed to look like and be about; game five is not supposed to be about the road team's stars disappearing and meekly submitting to a blowout loss. Remember when James Harden said that he wishes he could be seven feet tall and just dunk? That was a not so veiled reference to Giannis Antetokounmpo, with the point being that Harden believes that he has great basketball skills, in contrast to Antetokounmpo just being a big athlete who lacks great basketball skills. Since Harden made that remark, Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a championship and won a Finals MVP, while Harden continued his career-long pattern of disappearing in elimination games. To say that Harden's insult of Antetokounmpo did not age well would be the understatement of the century; Harden's delusional assessment of his basketball skills compared to Antetokounmpo's basketball skills is as off target as Harden's playoff shooting.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM

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Celtics Win Game Four in Milwaukee, Retake Home Court Advantage

Al Horford scored a playoff career-high 30 points and Jayson Tatum also scored 30 points as the Boston Celtics rallied from an 11 point deficit to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks 116-108 to tie their playoff series at 2-2. The Celtics reclaimed home court advantage as the series shifts back to Boston for the pivotal game five. Horford shot 11-14 from the field, grabbed eight rebounds, and led both teams with a +20 plus/minus number. Tatum had a team-high 13 rebounds, and he also had five assists. Tatum shot 11-24 from the field. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart scored 18 points each. Smart had a team-high eight assists.

Giannis Antetokounmpo notched game-high totals in points (34) and rebounds (18), and he also had five assists, but he shot 14-32 from the field and he looked uncharacteristically tired late in the fourth quarter when he was subbed out for a quick rest (less than one minute of game time). He had a +1 plus/minus number in 41 minutes, which means that the Bucks trailed by nine points in the seven minutes that he did not play. Brook Lopez had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Jrue Holiday shot just 5-22 from the field en route to posting a -23 plus/minus number. Holiday had 16 points, a game-high nine assists, and seven rebounds, but his poor shooting is becoming a significant subplot in this series. He is best suited to being the third offensive option and lead perimeter defender, but as this series progresses the absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton is increasingly being felt at both ends of the court as Holiday is being forced to shoulder a heavier load than he can carry without a corresponding drop in his efficiency.

The Bucks started the game strongly, leading 25-18 by the end of the first quarter after forcing five turnovers, winning the rebounding battle 17-9, and holding the Celtics to .364 field goal shooting. The Bucks should have been ahead by even more, but they only shot .357 from the field.

In the second quarter, the Bucks continued to shoot poorly (.333 field goal percentage) but the Celtics cut their turnovers to two, fought to a 12-12 draw on the boards, and outscored the Bucks 29-23 to shave Milwaukee's lead to 48-47 by halftime.

Antetokounmpo dominated the third quarter with 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting as the Bucks shot .526 from the field, outscored the Celtics 32-26, and extended their advantage to 76-65 before settling for an 80-73 lead heading into the final 12 minutes. 

Depending on how you view it, in the fourth quarter either the Bucks' defense fell apart or the Celtics' offense operated at absolute peak efficiency: the Celtics shot 16-19 from the field (.842) en route to outscoring the Bucks 43-28. Milwaukee is a championship team that prides itself on using its height and strength to defend with great tenacity, so that performance--with a great opportunity to take a 3-1 series lead--is very surprising. Horford outscored the Bucks 16-14 at the start of the fourth quarter, and he tied the score at 80-80 with an emphatic dunk over Antetokounmpo at the 9:51 mark. Antetokounmpo fouled Horford on the play, and Horford was assessed a technical foul because his elbow made contact with Antetokounmpo's face as both players tumbled to the ground. Horford shot 6-6 from the field in the fourth quarter, and Tatum was almost as deadly, scoring 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo scored six fourth quarter points on 3-7 field goal shooting, and Holiday was 0-5 from the field in the final stanza. Lopez had 10 points on 4-5 field goal shooting, but that was not nearly enough to hold off the rampaging Celtics.

During the playoffs, there is an amusing tendency for commentators to jump off and on various bandwagons from game to game; the team that just won is portrayed as invincible, while the team that just lost has several insurmountable matchup problems. The reality is nuanced, and is based on how the matchups play out over the course of several games. Does Boston's road win after dominating the fourth quarter change my prediction? No--in fact, the series is "on schedule" from my perspective, because in my series preview I noted that both teams can win on the road, and I predicted that Milwaukee would win game five in Boston before taking game six back in Milwaukee. I did not know how the series would progress from game to game but I expected a 2-2 tie with each team winning once on the road. If I am right--and if there are no further injuries--Antetokoumpo's greatness will be the distinguishing factor, just as it was during Milwaukee's championship run last season.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 1:45 AM

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Antetokounmpo Scores 42 Points, Bucks Survive Fourth Quarter Comeback to Beat Celtics, 103-101

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 42 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished for a game-high eight assists as his Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Boston Celtics 103-101 to take a 2-1 series lead. The teams will play one more game in Milwaukee before the series shifts back to Boston for game five. Antetokounmpo shot just .385 from the field in the first two games of this series, but he shot 16-30 (.533) from the field in game three. This is his 13th playoff game with at least 30 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least five assists. Since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, only LeBron James and Larry Bird have more such playoff games. Jrue Holiday scored 25 points, but he shot just 11-30 from the field, slightly worse than his .375 field goal percentage in the first two games of the series. Brook Lopez had 13 points and 10 rebounds. He scored 11 of his points in the first half, and his minutes were limited by foul trouble, but his contributions defensively and on the boards were indispensable. Pat Connaughton added 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting. 

Jaylen Brown scored 27 points on 8-16 field goal shooting for the Celtics. He also had 12 rebounds and four assists. Brown scored 15 points on 4-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Al Horford added 22 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 16 rebounds, and a team-high five assists. Horford scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Jayson Tatum outplayed Kevin Durant in Boston's first round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, but he has not fared as well so far versus Milwaukee, and he had a miserable game three, finishing with just 10 points on 4-19 field goal shooting. Although he had a game-high four blocked shots, Tatum's overall floor game was subpar: three assists, one rebound, one steal, and three turnovers in 41 minutes. Anyone can have a bad shooting game, but when the all-time greats have a bad shooting game they find other ways to control the game, and that is something that Tatum will have to continue to work on to cement his status as a legitimate MVP candidate in the future.

The Bucks shot just .404 from the field, but they held the Celtics to .368 field goal shooting. Other than a few swooping drives by Antetokoumpo and some slick moves by Brown, this game was not a showcase of beautiful offensive basketball, but it was a grimy, hard fought, and intense playoff game.

It is always a special treat when Hubie Brown is the color commentator. I miss the days when he was a member of his network's number one crew and he was always calling the biggest games, but I am grateful that the 88 year old Hall of Famer, 1975 ABA champion, and two-time NBA Coach of the Year (1978, 2004) is still sharp as ever and still sharing his basketball wisdom. Brown has lived through six decades of pro basketball history (1970s-2020s) as an assistant coach, head coach, and color commentator, but you can tell that he still loves the game and he is enthusiastic about the great players of today--such as Antetokounmpo--while also respecting the accomplishments of the great players from the past, a combination that far too many current commentators are unable or unwilling to pull off.

As is often the case, the first quarter provided a preview of how the game would proceed; contrary to popular belief/misconception, the NBA is just as much a first quarter league as it is a fourth quarter league. The Bucks led 22-19 after the first 12 minutes, nearly matching the final margin, and Antetokounmpo already had eight points and four rebounds while Tatum managed just two points on 1-5 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo dominating while Tatum struggled to make a shot turned out to be two of this game's major themes.

The second quarter was a bit of an aberration, as the Celtics closed the stanza on a 7-0 run to lead 50-46 at the break. The Celtics are well-coached and they are usually poised, so regardless of how well or how poorly they are shooting they will find ways to stay competitive. However, some of that poise temporarily evaporated in the third quarter, as the Celtics committed five turnovers in the first six minutes to fuel Milwaukee's surge to an 80-66 lead. The score was 80-67 heading into the fourth quarter, and the Bucks led 88-76 with 9:10 remaining after Bobby Portis scored on a putback, but then the Celtics went on a 24-11 run to go ahead 100-99 on two Brown free throws with 1:49 left. On a couple possessions, the Celtics trapped Antetokounmpo and stayed at home on everyone but Connaughton, who missed two wide open three pointers. In those moments, the absence of injured All-Star Khris Middleton was particularly noticeable, because the ball would have been in his hands either to start or finish those plays. Holiday's subpar field goal percentage is probably also at least partially caused by him shouldering a larger offensive load than usual (it is doubtful that he would have attempted 30 shots had Middleton played). That takes nothing away from the Celtics' defensive game plan or their execution of that game plan, but just states the reality that even though the Bucks are in a good position without Middleton the series would look different if he were playing.

Antetokounmpo's driving layup and Holiday's short jumper put the Bucks up, 103-100. The Bucks fouled Marcus Smart with 4.6 seconds remaining. Smart made the first free throw, and he intentionally missed the second free throw. The Celtics failed to convert multiple putback chances before Horford tipped the ball in the hoop, but replay review confirmed that the ball was still in his hands when time expired.

There is no publicly announced timetable for Middleton's return, and without the matchup advantages he provides at both ends of the court game four will probably be another slugfest. The individual numbers will vary from game to game--Tatum will probably not shoot this poorly again, but Holiday will also probably not shoot 2-9 from the field in the fourth quarter--but Antetokounmpo's greatness and Milwaukee's size present formidable challenges even for this very good Boston team.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 7:30 PM

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Celtics Cruise After Hot Start to Rout Bucks, Tie Series at 1--1

The Milwaukee Bucks dominated the Celtics in Boston in game one, but the Celtics are an excellent team, and no one should be surprised that the Celtics bounced back by playing with great energy in game two, jumping out to a 7-0 lead and never trailing en route to a 109-86 win to tie the series at 1-1. The Celtics improved their ball movement instead of settling for quick shots, they responded with poise to the Bucks' size/physicality, and they shot exceptionally well from three point range (20-43, .465). If the Celtics can do all of those things to the same extent in three more games, then they could win the series--but TNT's Stan Van Gundy made an insightful comment during the fourth quarter, noting that the way that the Bucks scored in the paint during the second half of this game is sustainable over the course of a series, while the Celtics' three point shooting percentage during this game is not sustainable over the course of a series.

The Bucks' defensive strategy in general and against Boston in particular is to concede three point field goal attempts while protecting the paint. The Bucks will not overreact or panic if the opposing team makes three point shots because the Bucks have confidence that their game plan will work over the course of a series. In game one, the Celtics fired up 50 three point field goal attempts and they made 18 for a decent .360 percentage; the Bucks can live with those numbers. In game two, the Celtics shot 13-20 (.650) from three point range in the first half, and they led 65-40. Overall, the Celtics shot 23-39 from the field (.590) in the first half. Most of that 25 point margin is accounted for by the difference between .650 and .360, with the remainder the result of the Bucks' inability to score efficiently. The Bucks stuck with their defensive strategy, but they did not execute it very well, while the Celtics played crisply and confidently at both ends of the court.

Jaylen Brown struggled in game one, but in game two he scored 17 first quarter point on 6-7 field goal shooting as the Celtics led 32-21 after the first 12 minutes. He finished the first half with 25 points on 9-10 field goal shooting. He cooled off in the second half, but still ended up with a game-high 30 points on 11-18 field goal shooting. Jayson Tatum started slowly, but he scored 29 points on 10-20 field goal shooting. Grant Williams played stout defense and he chipped in 21 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo did not shoot well in game one, and he had another bad shooting performance in game two. He scored just two first quarter points on 1-7 field goal shooting as the Celtics built a big lead. The Bucks shot 1-11 from the field to start the game, then made seven of their next nine shots, and they finished the first half with a .429 field goal percentage (15-35). Anteotkounmpo had five points, four assists, and two rebounds in the first half while shooting just 2-12 from the field.

Antetokounmpo scored 18 third quarter points on 8-11 field goal shooting as the Bucks outscored the Celtics 26-18, but the Celtics still led 83-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Brown shot 0-4 from the field and did not score a point in the third quarter. A non-championship team may have just thrown in the towel after such a rough first half, content to go back home with a 1-1 road split--but the Bucks fought hard in the second half, outscoring the Celtics, 46-44, and cutting the margin to 94-82 in the fourth quarter. Can the Celtics sustain what they did in the first half for three more games, or were those two quarters an aberration? By the end of the game, the Celtics' field goal percentage was .475 (.38-80), and they shot just 7-23 (.304) from three point range in the second half.

Anteotkounmpo ended up with 28 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists, but he also had six turnovers while shooting just 11-27 from the field. Al Horford has always defended him well, and Grant Williams used his strength to hold his ground in the post versus Antetokounmpo. The Bucks should figure out ways to use off ball movement and/or screen/roll actions to more often place Antetokounmpo in situations where he is not being guarded by Horford or Williams. Jrue Holiday scored 19 points on 7-20 field goal shooting. The Bucks need more offense from Holiday, particularly with All-Star Khris Middleton likely out for the entire series due to a knee injury. Bobby Portis was solid (13 points, eight rebounds, 5-7 field goal shooting), and Pat Connaughton provided a lift off of the bench (13 points on 6-7 field goal shooting), but the Bucks cannot expect to win too many playoff games against the Celtics while scoring less than 100 points.

This was an impressive win for the Celtics, but the Bucks have home court advantage, and they have favorable matchups that can exploit over the course of a long playoff series. Each game in an NBA playoff series is its own unique entity. During a playoff series, consistent themes emerge that define why one team is better than the other, but anything can happen in one game, particularly when both teams are very good. This is one reason that the NBA playoffs are better than the NCAA Tournament: an inferior team can win in a one and done scenario, but the superior team will almost always win a seven game series (barring injuries or other extenuating circumstances).

Labels: Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:46 PM

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Bucks Dominate Celtics in Paint En Route to 101-89 Win

The Boston Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets, but on Sunday afternoon the Milwaukee Bucks reminded the world that there is a big difference between being the NBA champion and being crowned as a paper champion before the season. The NBA champion Bucks beat the Celtics 101-89 while holding Boston to .333 field goal shooting and just 10 two point field goals made. The Bucks' defensive strategy is to protect the paint and force their opponents to beat them from three point range. The Celtics attempted 50 three pointers and made 18 for a decent .360 percentage, but those are numbers that the Bucks will accept every game, as long as they continue to keep the Celtics out of the paint. The Bucks did not shoot very well (37-90 from the field, .411) but--contrary to the "stat gurus" who insist that the optimal NBA game strategy should be based on the notion of "three being more than two"--the reality of playoff basketball is that scoring in the paint and defending the paint are very important. Boston players and fans will no doubt say that the Celtics just missed shots that they would normally make, but that fails to take into account that Milwaukee is not a "normal" team. Also, it is unlikely that Giannis Antetokounmpo will have another 9-25 field goal shooting performance (.360) in this series, even though Al Horford is known for defending him as well as anyone.

Antetokounmpo dominated the game despite his subpar shooting, posting his second career playoff triple double while leading both teams in rebounds (13) and assists (12). His putback dunk after passing the ball to himself off of the backboard was the highlight of the game, but his defense, rebounding, passing, and paint scoring were the biggest stories of the game. 

Jrue Holiday scored a game-high 25 points on 8-20 field goal shooting while contributing nine rebounds, five assists, and three steals. Bobby Portis added 15 points and 11 rebounds. Book Lopez' numbers do not jump out of the box score (six points, 10 rebounds, three blocked shots), but his size, mobility, and physicality played a major role in preventing Boston from scoring in the paint. The Bucks won game one without the services of All-Star Khris Middleton, who will likely miss the entire series after suffering a knee injury in the first round.

Jayson Tatum outplayed Kevin Durant in the first round, but he shot just 6-18 from the field and he finished with 21 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Jaylen Brown also struggled to score against Milwaukee's stifling defense (12 points, 4-13 field goal shooting). Horford had 12 points and 10 rebounds in addition to playing solid defense on Antetokounmpo, but he did not make a shot inside the three point arc.

Each game in a playoff series tends to have a slightly different specific story line, but the broad matchup tendencies remain constant throughout a playoff series. Here, Milwaukee's size poses tremendous problems for Boston at both ends of the court. Boston can and probably will play better, but Milwaukee also can and probably will play better; the game to game specifics will change, but the Celtics will not grow taller during this series, and the Bucks will not change their strategy of forcing the Celtics to beat them from outside of the paint.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 12:43 AM

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Milwaukee Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#3 Milwaukee (51-31) vs. #2 Boston (51-31)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Boston can win if…the Celtics' elite defense prevents Giannis Antetokounmpo from dominating in the paint without giving up high percentage shot attempts to Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and Milwaukee's other three point shooters. 

The Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets with a balanced scoring attack plus a stifling defense that held Kevin Durant to 26.3 ppg on .386 field goal shooting. Jayson Tatum led both teams in scoring (29.5 ppg) and assists (7.3 apg) while also making a significant impact on defense as the primary defender against Durant. The Celtics forced Durant and Kyrie Irving (21.3 ppg on .444 field goal shooting) to play in a crowd and shoot under duress while also making sure that the Nets' supporting cast did not run wild. The Celtics have tremendous size, speed, and versatility. 

Jaylen Brown (22.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.3 apg) had an excellent all-around series versus the Nets, as did 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (16.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 7.0 apg). Al Horford (13.0 ppg, series-high 7.5 rpg) showed that he still has a lot left in the tank. Horford has defended well against Antetokounmpo.

Milwaukee will win because…the Bucks not only have the NBA's best player--Giannis Antetokounmpo--but they have the necessary size, depth, and versatility to match up with the Celtics. The Bucks' frontcourt of Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis will not be pushed around by any team. The advantages that the Celtics enjoyed versus the Nets will not work in the Celtics' favor against the Bucks: the Nets have a small team that does not effectively attack the paint or defend the paint, but the Bucks attack the paint not only with Antetokounmpo but also with Lopez and Portis. On defense, the Bucks aggressively defend the paint and force their opponents to make three pointers. The Bucks shut down the Chicago Bulls during the first round. 

Antetokounmpo averaged 28.6 ppg, 13.4 rpg, and 6.2 apg versus the Bulls while shooting .568 from the field. Holiday had subpar shooting splits (.407/.345/.600) but he averaged 6.8 apg and played his usual first-rate defense. He will need to shoot better versus the Celtics for the Bucks to win, particularly because the Bucks will likely be without the services of All-Star Khris Middleton for the entire series. Portis' scoring and rebounding (11.6 ppg, 11.4 rpg versus the Bulls) and Allen's three point shooting (14-24, .583 versus the Bulls) will be very important, particularly with Middleton out of the lineup.

Other things to consider: The Bucks will miss the all-around play that Middleton provides. During game two of the Chicago series, Middleton injured the MCL in his left knee, and he has not played since he got hurt. However, the Bucks have enough talent and depth to survive until Middleton returns. 

This will be an interesting matchup of two well-coached, high-performing teams that flew under the radar for much of this season as media attention focused on other teams, including the Brooklyn Nets and the L.A. Lakers.

Holiday won the Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year award for the second time in three years. This honor may not have the same high profile as MVP or Rookie of the Year, but it emphasizes the enduring importance of character, and it was nice that Ernie Johnson mentioned the award during one of TNT's pregame shows. It is interesting that Holiday decided to not have the presentation ceremony right now so that the team stays focused on its playoff goals. Character matters, and character combined with talent is a championship combination. It is not a coincidence that the Bucks won their first championship since 1971 in the first season after Holiday joined the team.

As much as I respect the Bucks, I did not like it when they did not play their normal starting lineup in the final game of the regular season, content to lose that game, drop to the third seed, and face the Bulls in the first round even if that cost them home court advantage in the second round. Neither the Nets nor the Bulls offered much resistance in the first round, but now the Celtics enjoy home court advantage in this series. That could be an important factor if this series goes the distance, but I think that both of these teams can win on the road, and that the Bucks will take the pivotal game five in Boston before winning at home in game six to close out the series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:40 PM

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Team USA Avenges Early Loss to France, Claims Fourth Straight Olympic Gold Medal

Team USA started slowly in the gold medal game versus France and then sputtered down the stretch but did just enough in between to post an 87-82 victory in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021) to claim a fourth straight Olympic gold medal. Kevin Durant scored a game-high 29 points on 9-18 field goal shooting in 35 minutes after scoring 30 points in Olympic gold medal game wins in 2012 and 2016. Jayson Tatum added 19 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus a team-high seven rebounds. Jrue Holiday had 11 points on 5-13 field goal shooting while also grabbing five rebounds and playing his trademark stout defense. Damian Lillard was Team USA's only other double figure scorer with 11 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, but the only Team USA players with negative plus/minus numbers in this game were Lillard (-4) and Devin Booker (-8; he finished with 2 points on 0-4 field goal shooting in 22 minutes).

Rudy Gobert led France with 16 points on 5-5 field goal shooting and a game-high eight rebounds, while Evan Fournier also scored 16 points, but he shot just 5-15 from the field. During some stretches, Gobert was the best and most dominant player on the court, but his overall effectiveness was limited by his poor free throw shooting (6-13) and France's propensity to turn the ball over before even having a chance to feed him the ball deep in the paint. Gobert was one of three French starters who had a positive plus/minus number.

Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range, but--as is usually the case for Team USA in FIBA play--what mattered is that Team USA held France to 10-31 (.323) three point shooting without giving up too much in the paint. Team USA forced 18 turnovers while only committing nine turnovers, and Team USA only lost the rebounding battle 41-34 despite France having a bigger team.

France defeated Team USA 83-76 in Team USA's opening game of this year's Olympics and France fought Team USA hard from opening tip to final buzzer in the gold medal game. Team USA forced a turnover on France's first possession but then gave up deep post position and an easy dunk to Gobert on France's second possession. France led 10-4 after Fournier made a three pointer. France attacked effectively in the paint, but had a few careless turnovers. Team USA looked sluggish at both ends of the court, which has been a consistent first quarter problem throughout the Olympics. The one saving grace for Team USA was Durant, who singlehandedly wiped out France's early advantage, and carried Team USA to a 22-18 lead by the end of the first quarter. Durant had 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while his teammates had combined for 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting. Team USA shot just 2-11 (.182) from three point range but--more importantly--held France to 2-7 (.286) three point shooting without being dominated inside.

Team USA pushed their advantage to 39-26 in the second quarter, but only led 44-39 at halftime, with Durant pouring in 21 first half points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Tatum (11 points on 5-9 field goal shooting) was the only other Team USA player who reached double figures in scoring in the first half. Gobert paced France with 13 points on 4-4 field goal shooting, plus seven rebounds. Fournier added 11 points on 3-7 field goal shooting. France committed 10 turnovers, while Team USA went most of the half error free before finishing with two turnovers. France outshot Team USA from the field .462 to .432 and outrebounded Team USA 23-14 but Team USA had 11 more field goal attempts and Team USA took advantage of those extra opportunities. 

Throughout the Olympics, Team USA played very well in the third quarter and it seemed like this game would be no exception when Team USA expanded the margin to 71-57 at the 1:18 mark, but France closed the quarter with a 6-0 run to stay in contact heading into the final stanza. France shot 6-15 (.400) from three point range in the third quarter, as Team USA tilted their defense to the paint to stop Gobert from rolling to the hoop for dunks and/or free throw attempts after drawing fouls against smaller defenders who switched on to him.

France outscored Team USA 19-16 in the fourth quarter, and came within a few bounces of pulling off the upset. Team USA led 82-72 with 3:25 remaining after Tatum drilled a three pointer, but France kept clawing away, cutting the margin to 85-80 with :18 left after Lillard missed two free throws and Frank Ntilikina dunked. Holiday then threw a careless inbounds pass that Nic Batum stole, giving Ntilikina an opportunity to pull France within two points, but Ntilikina missed a three point shot. Nando de Colo grabbed the rebound, drew a foul on Draymond Green and canned two free throws. Team USA now had to inbound the ball successfully and make at least one free throw. Fittingly, Durant made two free throws to ice the game, averting a collapse that would have been eerily similar to--but much more devastating than--Team USA's stumbling finish versus France in the previous game between these teams.

It is difficult to compare Olympic performances from different eras against different levels of competition played under different rules, but there is little doubt that by any meaningful evaluation Durant is one of the best men's basketball players in Team USA history. He has repeatedly proven to be a clutch scorer, a very good rebounder, a solid playmaker, and even at times a defensive presence as a rim protector. This team would not have won a gold medal--and might not have won a medal at all--without Durant's high level play.

Labels: Evan Fournier, France, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gobert, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 2:16 AM

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Team USA Survives Another Slow Start, Blows Out Australia 97-78 to Advance to the Gold Medal Game

Team USA seems to get late wake up calls in Tokyo during the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021), but when Team USA wakes up they put their opponents to sleep. Australia built a 15 point first half lead but lost 97-78 after Team USA turned up their defense and turned down quick three point shots for quality shots inside the arc. Kevin Durant led the way not just with a game-high 23 points on 10-19 field goal shooting plus a game-high nine rebounds but he also anchored the defense in the paint. He was only credited with one blocked shot in the box score, but his rim protection was an important factor, and he also played good defense on the perimeter as well. Devin Booker added 20 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, while Jrue Holiday had 11 points on 5-11 field goal shooting plus a game-high eight assists. Holiday's playmaking and defense are both important factors for Team USA. Khris Middleton was Team USA's only other double figure scorer (11 points on 5-9 field goal shooting).  

Patty Mills bounced back from a slow start to lead Australia with 15 points, but he shot just 5-14 from the field. Dante Exum (14 points on 3-5 field goal shooting), Jock Landale (11 points on 5-13 field goal shooting), and Joe Ingles (nine points on 3-5 field goal shooting) were Australia's other top scorers.

Ingles drilled a pair of three pointers as Australia took an early 6-2 lead. Australia led by as much as eight points in the first quarter, and had a 24-18 advantage heading into the second quarter. Australia shot 4-6 from three point range, while Team USA missed all six of their three point shots. Team USA can survive when they miss three point shots, but they are in trouble when they let their opponents shoot well from three point range, and this game demonstrated both of those truths.

Australia pushed their lead to 41-26 as they continued to make three pointers while Team USA struggled to score. At that juncture, Australia had not only shot 6-10 from three point range compared to 0-8 for Team USA, but Australia had also outrebounded Team USA 14-11, and had forced eight Team USA turnovers while committing just five turnovers. Australia was playing smarter and displaying more toughness than Team USA.

As happened versus Spain, Team USA battled back from a double digit first half deficit, slashing Australia's lead to 45-42 by halftime. In the first half, Durant scored 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, Booker scored seven points on 2-4 field goal shooting, and Holiday had five points on 2-4 field goal shooting plus six assists. Exum led a balanced Australian attack with 10 points on 3-3 field goal shooting. Chris Goulding added eight points on 2-3 field goal shooting, while Ingles had seven points on 2-4 field goal shooting. Mills scored seven points but he shot just 2-8 from the field. Down the stretch in the first half, Australia shot just 1-5 from three point range, and those misses helped to fuel Team USA's transition game.

Team USA started out the third quarter by driving aggressively to the hoop, and promptly took a 51-45 lead after Durant converted a three point play followed by a pull up jumper. Team USA's advantages in depth and athleticism are best exploited by attacking the paint, not by bailing out the opponent by jacking up three pointers early in the shot clock. Durant hit a rhythm three pointer to extend Team USA's margin to 54-45 as Team USA abandoned any pretense of running any offense other than the "Give the ball to Durant and get out of the way" system. Durant forced a three pointer on the next possession, and his air ball led directly to a fast break layup for Australia; other than that one miscue, though, Durant played intelligently and aggressively, which opened up opportunities for his teammates. Booker got hot near the end of the quarter, enabling Durant to get some much needed rest while Team USA built a 74-55 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Durant scored eight points early in the third quarter to turn things around, and Booker scored 11 points in the third quarter to break the game open. 

Team USA's 34 point turnaround from a 15 point deficit to a 19 point lead made the fourth quarter just a bookkeeping exercise. Team USA shot 9-28 (.321) from three point range, but still won by 19 and could have won by more. Could it be more obvious that Team USA's success hinges not on making three pointers but rather on snuffing out the opponent's three point shooting without opening up the paint for easy scores? 

Australia threw their best punches in the first half, and failed to knock out Team USA; after their hot-shooting start, Australia made just 5 of their last 16 three point shots as Team USA clamped down defensively and then thrived in the transition game. Despite the early struggles on defense and on the glass, Team USA finished with a 44-29 rebounding advantage while holding Australia to 25-61 field goal shooting (.410).

In the gold medal game, Team USA will face the winner of the France-Slovenia game, which means that Team USA will either have an opportunity to avenge their 83-76 preliminary round loss to France or else face the challenge of dealing with Luka Doncic's upstart squad. The convincing win against Australia (albeit after a shaky start) is a big step in the right direction, but either gold medal matchup will not be easy.

Labels: Australia, Dante Exum, Devin Booker, Joe Ingles, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Patty Mills, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

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Kevin Durant Leads Rally From Double Digit Deficit as Team USA Defeats Spain, 95-81

Kevin Durant scored 29 points on 10-17 field goal shooting as Team USA bounced back from a sluggish first quarter to beat Spain 95-81 and advance to the semifinal round of the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021). Durant played 31 out of 40 minutes, five minutes more than any other American player, and it is fair to say that without his efficient offense Team USA would have been in serious jeopardy of losing and thus becoming the first U.S. men's basketball team to participate in the Olympics without winning a medal. Team USA will next face Australia. Australia shot 17-38 (.447) from three point range in a 97-59 quarterfinal win against Argentina

Four other Team USA players finished with at least 10 points versus Spain, including Jayson Tatum (13 points on 4-7 field goal shooting), Jrue Holiday (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting), Damian Lillard 11 points on 4-10 field goal shooting), and Zach LaVine (10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting). Holiday has emerged as one of the most valuable players on the team because of his heady play, scrappy defense, and timely scoring.

Ricky Rubio led Spain with a game-high 38 points on 13-20 field goal shooting. Sergio Rodriguez added 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting. Willy Hernangomez (10 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 10 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots) was the only other Spanish player who scored in double figures.

Spain led 21-19 after the first quarter, ending the stanza on an 11-2 run. Team USA had several defensive lapses that resulted in wide open shots for Spain. Rubio led both teams with 13 first quarter points on 5-8 field goal shooting, while Durant topped Team USA with seven points but he shot just just 2-6 from the field. When Durant is not dominating and Team USA's defense is shaky Team USA looks very vulnerable. Team USA's half court offense--outside of whatever Durant creates on his own--is not pretty or particularly efficient and the defense often operates as if Team USA does not have current, accurate scouting reports for the opposing team.

Spain's lead swelled to 39-29 in the second quarter, with Hernangomez looking like Bill Russell as he repeatedly rejected Team USA's shots in the paint. Team USA then resorted to jacking up three pointers a la the Mike D'Antoni/James Harden Houston Rockets. At one point, Spain had dominated the boards 27-14 and had also blocked four shots while Team USA did not have any blocked shots. Rebounding is about positioning, anticipation, and hustle. Team USA has more than enough size and athleticism to outrebound any team in this tournament, so their first half rebounding performance is very disappointing. Fortuntately, Team USA outrebounded Spain 18-15 the rest of the way.

Despite the mental miscues and lack of hustle, Team USA closed the first half with a 14-4 run to tie the score at 43-43. It must have been very discouraging for Spain to outplay Team USA for the better part of the first 20 minutes only to squander their entire advantage by halftime. Rubio did not score in the second quarter but still led Spain with 13 first half points, while Sergio Rodriguez had 10 points. Kevin Durant was Team USA's only double figure scorer with 12 points on 4-10 field goal shooting. Team USA shot 17-45 (.378) from the field, including 4-17 (.235) from three point range. Spain shot 17-38 (.447) from the field, including 3-15 (.200) from three point range. At halftime, Spain enjoyed a 29-18 rebound advantage, and had blocked six shots while Team USA had not blocked any shots. 

Not surprisingly, the deeper and more talented Team USA squad began to pull away in the third quarter. Powered by Durant's 13 points on 4-5 field goal shooting, Team USA won the third quarter, 26-20. Team USA actually led 65-49 before Spain closed the gap to 69-63 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA did not score in the final 2:59 of the third quarter, but opened the fourth quarter with an 8-3 burst to build a double digit lead, and the margin did not fall below eight points the rest of the way.

Team USA has been prone to both slow starts and extended periods of sluggish play, but has been able to survive and advance mainly because of Durant's greatness combined with superior overall talent and depth. The remaining games figure to pose even tougher challenges.

Labels: Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Ricky Rubio, Sergio Rodriguez, Spain, Team USA, Willy Hernangomez

posted by David Friedman @ 5:13 PM

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Team USA Overcomes Slow Start, Routs Czech Republic 119-84 as Durant Breaks U.S. Olympic Career Scoring Record

Team USA started slowly but rallied in the final three quarters to rout the Czech Republic 119-84 to clinch a spot in the quarterfinals of the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021). Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 27 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, while Kevin Durant had a brilliant all-around game with 23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, and six assists. Durant is now Team USA's career Olympics scoring leader while playing in his third Olympics, breaking a record set by four-time Olympian Carmelo Anthony. Jrue Holiday scored 11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he also had three rebounds, two assists, and three steals. As is often the case, Holiday had an impact that extended beyond his scoring; his outstanding defense was a key factor as Team USA mounted a comeback from a 25-18 deficit at the end of the first quarter. 

Zach LaVine contributed 13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he was involved in a play that embodied why Team USA has struggled at times: early in the game, he contorted his body while attempting a three pointer, trying to draw a foul, but the FIBA referees just ignored his flailing and complaining. LaVine was skilled enough/fortunate enough to make the shot anyway, but the larger point is that in FIBA play the offensive player is typically not rewarded for making unnatural gyrations during his shooting motion. In contrast, NBA stars--most notably James Harden, but he is far from the only culprit/benefactor--expect to be rewarded with free throws in such situations, which not only pads their scoring totals while getting the other team in foul trouble but also influences how much space defenders are willing to give to Harden and other high scorers, to the extent that some teams instruct their players to "guard" Harden with their hands behind their backs. In recent years, the advantages that NBA referees confer upon selected players have become very significant, and when watching Team USA in FIBA play it is evident that this has led to an erosion of the abilities of these players to score efficiently without receiving such unfair advantages. Yes, Durant had a spectacular game, but overall he has not been spectacular thus far for Team USA, and the same holds true for most of the team's other players. When referees place a cone of protection around you, it can be difficult to remember how to play without that security blanket. Durant and Team USA's other stars came of age without that cone of protection and should be able to summon up those skills again, but these FIBA games have shown us a lot about the state of the NBA game today, and have reinforced my belief that the narrative that the game and today's players are better than ever is not accurate.

Blake Schilb, a 37 year old forward who never played in the NBA and who had his best EuroLeague season nearly a decade ago, led the Czech Republic with 17 points on 6-9 field goal shooting. Schilb spearheaded a frontcourt attack that overwhelmed Team USA in the first quarter, but--not surprisingly--a player who is nearly 40 years old could not sustain that level of play for a whole game against a squad of NBA All-Stars. 

Team USA's first quarter post defense was awful, and their perimeter defense was not much better. Team USA wore down the Czech Republic thanks to huge advantages in both top line talent and overall depth. Do not be deceived by the final score. Chris Broussard recently posted a video about Team USA during which he made two excellent points: (1) "The world" may have caught up to Team USA (a "World Team" of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic might beat any team the U.S. can put together) but no individual country has overall talent or depth even approaching Team USA's "B" Team, and (2) when a team that clearly has more talent loses to a team with inferior players then coaching is a major issue. Gregg Popovich's string of embarrassing losses as Team USA's coach is inexcusable considering the rosters that he has had. As Broussard correctly noted, many countries now have several NBA players, but Team USA has a squad of NBA All-Stars. Broussard quipped that the Sacramento Kings have NBA players but get beaten on a nightly basis, so just having a few NBA players does not make a team a legitimate powerhouse.

What would have the result been if the Czech Republic's best player had been 27 instead of 37, or if the Czech Republic had a better bench?

We may find out the answers to those questions during Team USA's next game. Even when Team USA had prime Kobe Bryant and a still-capable Jason Kidd spearheading the perimeter defense in the 2008 Olympics, Spain was not an easy opponent for Team USA, and Spain was an even more challenging opponent for Team USA during the 2012 Olympics. This Team USA squad lost two exhibition games to vastly inferior opponents, and then lost a  preliminary round game to France, which is not as highly ranked in FIBA play as Spain. Can Team USA control the paint versus Spain without giving up wide open three pointers? Can Team USA force enough turnovers to fuel their transition game so that they do not have to rely on their sometimes balky half court offense? Maybe Team USA has been scared straight and will now waltz to the gold medal, but the choppy first quarter against the Czech Republic would give me a lot of additional confidence if I played for Spain; I would think, we can play the same way that the Czech Republic did, and we have the necessary talent/depth to maintain that style and level of play for the full 40 minutes.

Before Team USA's previous game, several Iranian players took pictures with Vince Carter. I doubt that Spain will be so awestruck that their players will be seeking photo opportunities with any current or former U.S. players.

Labels: Blake Schilb, Czech Republic, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 2:27 AM

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Assessing Team USA After the 83-76 Loss to France

Gregg Popovich is a lock to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, but it is fair to say that his FIBA exploits will not figure prominently in his Hall of Fame display. Team USA has lost five of the last eight FIBA games that he has coached since 2019, including France's 83-76 win over Team USA in Team USA's first game in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021). This defeat snapped Team USA's 25 game Olympics winning streak, dating back to 2004 when Popovich was a Team USA assistant coach for Larry Brown. 

It is fair to say that France's Coach Vincent Collet outcoached Popovich, who had the much more talented roster yet could not figure out a way to stop France down the stretch. This is just Team USA's sixth loss in Olympic competition, and it might have been the worst from a coaching standpoint, as Popovich's crew blew a 74-67 lead with less than four minutes remaining.

Evan Fournier poured in a game-high 28 points versus a Team USA squad featuring--among others--All-Stars Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, and Devin Booker. Before the contest, I wondered why NBC had relegated Team USA's games to Peacock streaming, but maybe NBC suspected that the U.S. squad--which should never, ever, ever again be called any kind of "Dream Team"--may become known as the "Not Ready for Prime Time Players." 

Rudy Gobert had 14 points, nine rebounds, and no blocked shots, but those numbers do not reflect the impact that he had on winning. He was very disruptive at both ends of the court, converting high percentage shots in the paint while also deterring Team USA players from venturing into the lane; Gobert did not block any shots at least in part because Team USA players were very reluctant to shoot when he was nearby. It should be noted that the official scorer possibly missed at least one Gobert block around the 3:19 mark of the second quarter on a Damian Lillard drive.

Jrue Holiday led Team USA with 18 points, but he shot just 5-13 from the field. Kevin Durant, who is closing in on the Team USA career scoring record held by Carmelo Anthony, had just 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting. Lillard scored 11 points on 3-10 field goal shooting. Logo shots and one on one forays are not quite so easy when the opposing team is permitted to play defense, which is too often not the case in the modern NBA.

I am the last person to overreact to one game, or to assert something absurd such as a player's legacy or a coach's legacy should be defined by one game, particularly a game that is not an elimination game. However, Team USA's loss is embarrassing for a talented squad led by a highly respected coach. No matter what reasons and/or excuses are provided, Team USA should not lose to France. It is perhaps understandable for international teams that have several NBA players and more internal cohesion--based on playing together for a longer time--than Team USA to play competitively against Team USA, but when Team USA sends anything close to our A Team victory should be the only expectation. Popovich's indignant responses to legitimate media questions about this surprising loss and his coaching decisions are pathetic; if Popovich is truly not surprised that he lost to France coaching this roster then perhaps he is the wrong person for this job.

There is a tendency to seek simple, one dimensional answers/explanations, but the reality is that several factors contributed to this loss, and most of these factors are the same factors that led to previous Team USA losses in FIBA play. There are many commentators who insist that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to build a roster stacked with shooters, but the reality is that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to have guards who can pressure opposing ballhandlers, forcing turnovers to fuel the fast break attack. The best Team USA squads since the one and only real Dream Team in 1992 are the squads that had Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in the backcourt. I interviewed Steve Kerr--then the Suns General Manager--in 2007, not long after he spoke with then Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni about D'Antoni's experience as a Team USA assistant coach and Kerr told me that D'Antoni raved about Bryant's defensive impact: 

Prior to each game in last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it, and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact on Team USA.

Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective. 

Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period. 

Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Evan Fournier, France, Gregg Popovich, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gobert, Team USA, Vincent Collet

posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

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