Jason "Plumber" Kidd Outcoaches J.J. "Genius" Redick as Undermanned Mavericks Rout Star-Studded Lakers
"The Lakers stink."--Charles Barkley
On Tuesday night, the L.A. Lakers visited Dallas to face an injury-decimated Mavericks team that is without the services of MVP candidate Luka Doncic, eight-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, and key big man Daniel Gafford. Clearly, this game projected to be a rout--and it was, but in favor of the Mavericks, 118-97. The Mavericks had lost their previous 10 games played sans Doncic and Irving. TNT's Reggie Miller called it a "gritty win" for the Mavericks.
That is true, but this is also a humiliating and inexcusable loss for
the talent-laden Lakers featuring LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
Quentin Grimes scored a game-high 23 points while shooting 8-17 from the field (including 6-11 from three point range). P.J. Washington (22 points) also scored more points than James or Davis. Spencer Dinwiddie added 19 points. Dinwiddie was a Laker last season. It sure is great for the Lakers that
they did not retain his services, and kept a roster spot open for
LeBron's son Bronny, who has scored four points this season--to be clear,
Bronny is not averaging 4 ppg: he has scored four total points.
The Mavericks outrebounded the Lakers 44-33, and the Mavericks shot 45-86 (.523) from the field. The Lakers have tremendous advantages in size and skill that could/should be exploited in the paint--but the Mavericks outscored the Lakers 52-40 in the paint as the Lakers eschewed high percentage two points shots while shooting just 11-35 (.314) from three point range.
Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 21 points but he shot just 7-18 from the field, including 2-7 from three point range. Davis had a game-high 12 rebounds. James filled up the boxscore with empty numbers, amassing a near triple double with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. Davis' plus/minus number was -19, and James' plus/minus number was -12.
One play from this game is a microcosm of why players
should not be evaluated just based on their individual statistics alone. With less than five seconds remaining in the third quarter, James grabbed a
defensive rebound, dribbled up court, stopped a few feet beyond the three point line, and passed the ball with less than
one second remaining; time ran out without the Lakers taking a shot,
and James managed to avoid both a missed shot and a turnover, so the
play was successful in terms of preserving his vaunted "efficiency"--but his team
trailed by 13 points, so the unselfish team-first play would be to take a three
pointer from the top of the key; maybe the shot goes in, maybe James is fouled, but there is no potential downside for the team even though James risked adding a missed field goal attempt to his personal statistics. Passing the ball when there is not enough time for the intended recipient to shoot just wastes the possession for the team (but not for a player who is obsessively focused on his personal statistics). That play did not decide the outcome of the game, but it speaks volumes about James' basketball values, and about the mentality of this Lakers team. When the team's best player cares more about his numbers than he does about winning, that attitude permeates the entire roster. It is not a mystery why the Lakers often look lackadaisical; the tone of not focusing on team success is set at the top of the roster, and then cascades through the rest of the roster.
How did the Mavericks win this game? Simple--Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick. Redick's team has the two best players, but Redick could not figure out how to exploit his team's obvious matchup advantages on offense, and his team's defense was awful, which highlights his limitations both as a motivator and as a strategist. After the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, I provided this assessment: "In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious
defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't
play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of
strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to
give maximum effort."
When Redick took this job, he declared that he signed up to coach a "championship caliber" team. If his assessment is that the Lakers are a championship caliber team then it is fair to ask why they are not playing at a championship level. Redick will never admit that his lack of NBA coaching experience and acumen is a problem, so it will be interesting to see when the Lakers figure this out (or admit it to themselves); I suspect that this will not happen until James retires or until James is no longer playing well enough to justify the top to bottom control he currently exercises over the franchise in terms of hiring/firing coaches and making personnel moves (including the drafting of his son Bronny, who is not an NBA caliber player and will not be an NBA caliber player for the foreseeable future).
There is still more than half the season left, but it does not seem likely that Redick will turn out to be the next Pat Riley.
When Redick worked as a TV commentator and as a podcaster, he made the ridiculous assertion that Bob Cousy's statistics are not impressive because Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen." Kidd's NBA playing career began in 1994, which is past the era during which NBA players regularly had other jobs during the offseason, but Redick--with his rampant recency bias and slavish devotion to promoting LeBron James while denigrating the great players of the past--has taken potshots at that era as well, dismissing it as watered down due to expansion.
It was fun watching Jason "Plumber" Kidd outcoach J.J. "Genius" Redick. Kidd played the game at a high level for a long time and, unlike Redick, Kidd played both ends of the court. Charles Barkley called Kidd's coaching in this game a "master class," and it goes without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that Redick's coaching was the opposite of a master class. Call it amateur hour, befitting of someone whose only prior coaching experience was coaching his son and other amateur kids. During his post-game press conference, Redick emphasized that during this game the Lakers played defensive coverages that he has never seen. Presumably, his intended point is that he knows defensive coverages but his players are clueless; however, Redick's statement is a self-indictment of his inept coaching, because there are only two reasons for the Lakers to play defensive coverages that he has never seen: one reason is that Redick is not good at teaching defense to NBA players, and the other reason is that the players do not respect Redick enough to do what he asks them to do.
The Lakers played so poorly that the poster child for NBA nepotism--Bronny James--made a rare appearance (just his ninth game played this season), logging one minute of garbage time and putting together a "trillionaire" boxscore number of one minute played followed by zeroes in all other categories (though, it should be noted, he managed to have a -4 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance).
This is one game in an 82 game season. I am not foolish enough to think that the legacies of players or coaches are defined by one game. The larger point is that the way that the Lakers played versus the Mavericks reflects issues and trends that have been apparent for several years--ever since the Lakers won the "bubble title" in 2020--and thus cannot properly be dismissed as an aberration. This is the sixth time in 36 games this season that the Lakers lost by at least 20 points. As Chris Berman loves to say (though the expression does not originate with him), "Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a problem." This game is an indictment of a problem, and not just an "accident."
The two greatest things about Redick coaching the Lakers are (1) we don't have to hear his asinine takes about basketball history as an ESPN commentator and as a podcaster, and (2) he will be an endless source of unintentional comedy with his combination of inept coaching and arrogant refusal to take responsibility for his team's losses, much like James Harden provides comic relief with his "concert tour" playoff field goal percentages.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, Jason Kidd, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, P.J. Washington, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie
posted by David Friedman @ 1:30 AM
Doncic, Irving Each Score 33 Points as Dallas Beats Minnesota 116-107 to Take a 3-0 Lead
Luka Doncic scored 33 points on 10-20 field goal shooting and Kyrie Irving scored 33 points on 12-20 field goal shooting as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 116-107. The Mavericks lead the Western Conference Finals 3-0, and can complete a sweep with a home win on Tuesday night. P.J. Washington added 16 points and a team-high eight rebounds. Derrick Jones Jr. scored 11 points and a had a game-best +15 plus/minus number. Dereck Lively II scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in just nine minutes before exiting the game for good after taking an inadvertent blow to the head from Karl-Anthony Towns.
Anthony Edwards had his best game of the series with 26 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists but the player prematurely touted as the next Michael Jordan was the game's sixth leading scorer in the fourth quarter (four points) and that just is not good enough--nor is it good enough for him to be the third best player (behind Doncic and Irving) in this series. When was Jordan ever the third best player in any playoff series? Mike Conley (16 points, four assists, just one turnover) and Naz Reid (14 points ) once again did their jobs, but Karl-Anthony Towns scored 14 points on 5-18 field goal shooting, including 0-8 from three point range. Rudy Gobert had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting and six rebounds in 28 minutes. The people blaming Gobert for Minnesota's losses have yet to explain how it is his fault that Towns is misfiring from three point range and refusing to use his size effectively in the paint.
In the fourth quarter with the game and the series on the line, Dallas outscored Minnesota 29-20. In those decisive 12 minutes, Dallas shot .733 from the field and held Minnesota to .450 field goal shooting, but what should be even more disturbing to Minnesota than those numbers is that Minnesota jacked up eight three pointers in the final stanza and made just one. Minnesota made the move that Draymond Green has been screaming about--playing Gobert just 2:47 in the final 12 minutes--and the Timberwolves had not just their worst quarter of the game but their worst quarter of the series.
I picked Minnesota to win this series because I expected their big men to dominate the paint while Edwards played Doncic to a draw. I also thought that Minnesota's rangy wing defenders could do a reasonable job containing Irving. Minnesota has failed to meet all three of those expectations, and that is why they trail 3-0. I don't think that it is premature for me to admit that I was wrong about this series. Although the three games have been decided by a total of 13 points, the same patterns have happened in each game, and at this point there is no reason to think that those patterns will change: Minnesota is not playing efficient or intelligent offense, Doncic is outplaying Edwards by a large margin, and Irving is having his way with anyone who tries to guard him.
In my previous game recaps from this series, I explained why the anti-Gobert narrative being trumpeted by Draymond Green is nonsense so I will not repeat that analysis here other than to emphasize again that throughout the playoffs and in this series the number show that the Timberwolves are better when Gobert is on the court than when he is on the bench. All other things being equal or close to equal, NBA playoff series are often decided by the star matchups--even if the stars are not going head to head on every possession--and this series is being decided by that fact that Doncic and Irving are outplaying Edwards and Towns by a large margin.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 AM
Minnesota Versus Dallas Preview
Western Conference Finals
#3 Minnesota (56-26) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Minnesota, 3-1
Dallas can win if…Luka Doncic averages a 30 point triple double, Kyrie Irving averages at least 23 ppg and at least 7 apg, and Dallas' big men hold their own against Minnesota's big and versatile frontcourt. Doncic averaged 24.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 8.7 apg as Dallas upset the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 in the second round, and during the 2024 playoffs Doncic is averaging 27.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 9.1 apg (first in the league). Doncic, who won his first regular season scoring title this year (33.9
ppg), is consistently great, but his 2024 playoff scoring is lower than
his playoff scoring in 2021 and 2022 when he led the league in that
category (35.7 ppg in 2021, 31.7 ppg in 2022); the decrease in Doncic's scoring is partly because he has more help around him, and partly because he has been slowed at times by a host of nagging injuries. It is unlikely that Doncic will ever be a defensive stopper, but he has improved at that end of the court to the extent that opposing teams target him less often and have less success when they target him.
Kyrie Irving had some good moments versus Oklahoma City, but overall he barely played at an All-Star level, let alone at the level of the all-time great that he is supposed to be; he averaged 15.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, and 2.3 rpg, numbers that are below his overall 2024 playoff statistics (21.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.0 apg). Many TV commentators gush over Irving's ballhandling skills, but of greater importance to Dallas' winning chances are (1) his improved defensive effort this season and especially during the playoffs, and (2) his proven ability to be the second option on a championship team (2016 Cleveland Cavaliers).
The difference for the Mavericks between missing the playoffs last season and reaching the Western Conference Finals this season is the play of their midseason acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, two players who provide size, rebounding, and toughness. Washington was Dallas' second best player in the Oklahoma City series, averaging 17.7 ppg and 8.3 rpg while leading the team in three point field goals made (23) and three point field goal percentage (.469). Gafford led the team in blocked shots (2.0 bpg) versus Oklahoma City while also averaging 11.0 ppg and 7.5 rpg.
Gafford, Washington, and rookie Dereck Lively II give the Mavericks a much-needed paint presence at both ends of the court, but they face a significant challenge matching up with Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid.
Minnesota will win because…their size will enable them to control the paint at both ends of the court, and because Anthony Edwards will play Luka Doncic to at least a draw. The Timberwolves can throw a host of long-armed, rangy defenders at Irving--and Edwards has already publicly relished the opportunity to guard Irving. Oklahoma City's younger and bigger perimeter players gave Irving problems at both ends of the court, and Minnesota is a better defensive team than Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves will not shut down Doncic, but they have enough wing defenders and enough paint presence to prevent a steady diet of 40 point explosions.
Minnesota's big man trio earned a host of awards this season, and they overpowered the big, physical Denver Nuggets in the second round. Towns made the All-Star team for the fourth time, Gobert won his
record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, and Reid won the
Sixth Man of the Year award. Towns is a three level scorer, Gobert is
an elite rim protector who scores efficiently in the paint, and Reid
provides an athletic and energetic presence at both ends of the court.
Edwards is being prematurely crowned as the next Michael Jordan--Jordan won six Finals MVPs and six championships, while Edwards has won two playoff series so far--but if you ignore the hype and just watch his game then you will like what you see. Edwards is a three level scorer who is a deft and willing passer, and he is also an enthusiastic and effective defensive player. It is fair to say that he looks like a player who could be a perennial MVP contender, but it is ridiculous to compare a young player who is just starting his NBA journey with Jordan, who had no skill set weaknesses and who utilized his superlative skills to transform the Chicago Bulls into a dominant team.
Other things to consider: While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. The Timberwolves have Mike Conley's veteran, stabilizing influence at point guard, Anthony Edwards' superstar potential on the wing, and the big man trio discussed above. Their bench is excellent, and the biggest difference this season is that the team's maturity level has risen dramatically; there is no internal strife, and they have vastly reduced their bonehead plays that once inspired Charles Barkley to declare that they are "dumb as rocks."
In contrast, Mark Cuban has publicly embraced tanking--a disgraceful stance for which the NBA has fined him twice--and it is interesting to observe the favorable media coverage that he continues to receive despite (1) the Mavericks not being particularly successful on the court for most of his tenure and (2) the Mavericks' well-documented dysfunctional workplace culture that Cuban implausibly claimed that he knew nothing about. Cuban prematurely cast aside much of Dirk Nowitzki's supporting cast after the Mavericks won the 2011 NBA title, and as a result of that blunder--and other personnel miscues while Cuban ran the team's basketball operations--the Mavericks did not win a playoff series again until 2022. Then, Cuban responded to that success by letting Jalen Brunson walk away in free agency, and the Mavericks missed the playoffs in 2023. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that the Mavericks' success this season coincides with Cuban selling his majority interest in the team and taking a step back from controlling basketball operations. Cuban placed himself in the enviable position of remaining the public face of the franchise while enabling smarter people to make basketball decisions for which many media members will still give him credit.
Minnesota will defeat Dallas in six games.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves, Naz Reid, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 10:26 PM
Doncic is Doncic, Washington Shines Early, and Irving Dominates Fourth Quarter as Mavericks Beat Thunder, 105-101
While it is true that game one winners win NBA playoff series more than 75% of the time, there are situations when the better team is flat for whatever reason in game one but then subsequently takes over. It remains to be seen if the defending champion Denver Nuggets have taken over versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, but Denver's game three rout put an end to all of the sweep talk and all of the slanderous talk about Nikola Jokic's legacy. In the other Western Conference second round series, the Oklahoma City Thunder dominated the Dallas Mavericks 117-95 in game one, but the Mavericks seized homecourt advantage with a 119-110 game two win and now the Mavericks are up 2-1 after beating the Thunder 105-101 in game three.
P.J. Washington scored a team-high 27 points on 11-23 field goal shooting, including 5-12 from three point range; the Thunder are conceding corner threes in general--and corner threes to Washington in particular--so even though the Mavericks did not have a great three point shooting performance overall (11-33, .333) they must be happy to be given so many open treys from the shortest three point distance around the arc. Luka Doncic limped through 41 minutes with assorted injuries, but he still produced 22 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and five assists. Kyrie Irving also had 22 points, and he dished for a team-high seven assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 31 points, passed for six assists, and led the Thunder in both rebounds (10) and blocked shots (game-high five). Jalen Williams added 16 points and a game-high eight assists, but overall the Thunder are being pushed around, and slender starter Josh Giddey has been rendered so ineffective that he only played 13 minutes. The Mavericks' size and physicality have been the dominant themes starting with game two, and it is not clear that the Thunder can match up in those areas. The Mavericks won the rebounding battle 48-41, which helped them to launch 10 more field goal attempts than the Thunder. The Thunder outshot the Mavericks from the field .469 to .429 but still lost; it is more likely that the Mavericks will start shooting better than that the Thunder will suddenly become bigger, stronger, and tougher. The Mavericks outscored the Thunder 52-38 in the paint; regardless of what "stat gurus" insist, the truth is that games, series, and championships are won in the paint, not on the perimeter.
Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC. He also did the ESPN color commentary for Dallas's game two win. During his pregame remarks, he praised Doncic's toughness for playing through injuries, and he also highlighted Doncic's pinpoint passing that creates easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. Brown said that Gilgeous-Alexander "is not unstoppable, but if you're guarding him you've got a full night's work ahead of you."
Brown noted early in the game that the big man rolling to the hoop is wide open for the Mavericks: "You've got to be happy if you're Dallas because everything is in the painted area." The Mavericks jumped out to a 15-7 lead, and even though the rest of the game featured runs by both teams the overall pattern had been set: Dallas is more physical, and Dallas can create more easy scoring opportunities.
The Thunder's Lu Dort picked up his second foul with 41 seconds left in the first quarter, forcing him to the bench. Brown mentioned that Dort's absence not only removes a top defender but also slows down the Thunder's running game.
Throughout the game, Brown emphasized that Dallas needs contributions from the bench in general, and from Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green in particular. Dereck Lively II proved to be Dallas' most productive bench player in this game, contributing 12 points and eight rebounds in 27 minutes as Dallas' bench scored 23 points compared to 24 points for Oklahoma City's bench. Dallas can live with a near draw in this category as long as not only Doncic and Irving are cooking but Washington is also having a huge impact.
The Thunder led 52-51 at halftime, but the way that they built that slender margin was not sustainable: they were outrebounded 26-16 and only attempted 38 field goals compared to Dallas' 50, but they outshot Dallas .526 to .400 from the field. Once both teams' field goal percentages reverted to the mean--the Thunder shot .499 from the field during the regular season, while the Mavericks shot .481--the Mavericks regained the lead, outshooting the Thunder .463 to .419 in the second half.
Perhaps Jason Kidd rubbed media members the wrong way during his career, because otherwise it is difficult to understand why he does not receive more credit for being an excellent coach. Brown pointed out during the second half how effective the Mavericks' "soft matchup 2-3 zone" had been.
The Mavericks led by as much as nine points during the fourth quarter, but the Thunder trimmed the margin to 92-89 before Doncic converted a layup at the 6:23 mark. Soon after that, Lively checked in, and the Thunder intentionally fouled him four times during the remainder of the game. Lively shot 5-8 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter and 8-12 overall. The math behind the intentional foul strategy is that if it holds the opposing team to one point per possession or less then the fouling team can either extend a lead or gain ground by making two point shots or three point shots--but that basic math does not take into account several basketball realities, including (1) the team that is fouled can set up an entrenched halfcourt defense, (2) intentional fouling slows down the game and thus kills the fouling team's fastbreak opportunities, (3) intentional fouling sends the message to both teams that the fouling team believes that it cannot win the game by getting a series of defensive stops, and (4) even a bad free throw shooter will likely hit a few free throws when given the chance to develop a shooting rhythm. Thus, intentional fouling ends up conceding more free points than "expected" mathematically while also making it more difficult for the fouling team to score.
By the time the Thunder stopped fouling Lively intentionally, the Mavericks led 100-95.
Irving has been a big-time scorer throughout his career, but so far in this series he has been picking his spots to score. After scoring 14 points in the first three quarters, he had eight fourth quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting to close the deal.
The Thunder earned the number one seed in the Western Conference--albeit on a tiebreak over the Denver Nuggets and just one game ahead of the third place Minnesota Timberwolves--and they are a young team on the rise, but to win a championship a team must be able to withstand physical play, rebound and defend the paint; those three areas are weaknesses that will be difficult for the Thunder to overcome versus the Mavericks.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Dereck Lively II, Hubie Brown, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, P.J. Washington, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 10:27 PM
