20 Second Timeout

Warriors Hope to See "Playoff Jimmy" Instead of Disinterested Jimmy

Jimmy Butler won his power struggle with the Miami Heat, forcing his way out and receiving a two year, $112 million contract extension from the Golden State Warriors that more than covers the roughly $6 million of salary that he lost after being suspended three times this season by the Heat. The Heat sent Butler, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations to the Warriors in exchange for Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and a first round draft pick. Several other teams participated in the deal as well.  The Toronto Raptors received P.J. Tucker from the Utah Jazz, plus a second round draft pick and cash considerations from the Heat. The Detroit Pistons received Dennis Schroder from the Jazz via the Warriors, and they also received Lindy Waters III and a 2031 second round pick via the Warriors. The Jazz received K.J. Martin from the Pistons via the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Richardson via the Heat, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations from the Heat.

Most of these moves will be remembered as bookkeeping maneuvers facilitating Butler's departure from Miami in exchange for three players plus a first round draft pick. In my analysis of the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, I wrote, "The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters." Butler has earned six All-Star selections, five All-NBA Team selections, and five All-Defensive Team selections while also winning the 2023 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; he has more accolades, accomplishments, and honors than all of the other players in this deal combined. Butler is 35 years old, but he has been reasonably productive this season (17.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, a career-high .540 FG%). Wiggins, the only other player in the deal who made the All-Star team (2022), is almost 30 years old. He was a vital contributor to Golden State's 2022 championship team, but he has been inconsistent (and often unavailable) since 2022. 

The Warriors are the clear winners of this trade based on the best player criterion. Size is not a factor in this trade, as none of the players are taller than 6-9 or power players in the paint, but age is a factor worth considering. Butler is five years older than Wiggins, and four years older than Anderson, Schroder and Richardson. Other than the 39 year old Tucker, there is a good chance that every rotation player included in this trade has more years left in the league than Butler does. Age matters little to the win-or-bust Warriors, but the Heat did the best that they could to obtain players who can be in their rotation for the next several years (or who are viable enough to be packaged for other rotation players or draft picks)--and they did well to obtain anything of value for an aging, disgruntled player who wears out his welcome everywhere he goes.

After the trade, Butler delivered a brief video message to Warriors' fans, concluding with these bold words: "Championship coming soon." Talk is cheap, but  $112 million is not cheap for a 35 year old who has never been durable, has never made the All-NBA First Team, and has never finished higher than 10th in regular season MVP voting.

The "Playoff Jimmy" nickname is primarily based on three extended Miami playoff runs (2020 NBA Finals, 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, 2023 Eastern Conference Finals), but Butler averaged just 14.5 ppg on .297 field goal shooting when the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round in 2021, and he shot .451 from the field or worse in his six playoff appearances with Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Butler missed the 2024 playoffs due to injury, and his comment after the playoffs that the Heat would have beaten Boston if he had played earned a stern rebuke from Heat President Pat Riley, who bluntly stated that players who don't participate should not talk. That may not have been the end of Butler's positive relationship with the Heat, but it seems like it was the beginning of the end, because Riley's public censure of Butler reflected Riley's position that Butler is not available enough to be worth a max contract extension.

It is possible that Butler will play with renewed energy and vigor for the Warriors after receiving the contract extension that the Heat refused to give him, but it is also possible that now that he got paid he will be satisfied and unmotivated. He built a mythology about himself that he is all about the team and about winning, but the way that he forced Miami to trade him demonstrated that he is all about flexing his power for personal gain. Butler has not played in more than 65 games in a season since 2016-17, when he was 27; it is unlikely that he will suddenly become more durable or more reliable, so the Warriors should expect to get--at best--130 regular season games or less from Butler out of a possible 164 in the next two seasons. 

Published reports indicate that the Warriors preferred to bring back Kevin Durant for a second tour of duty instead of acquiring Butler, but Durant balked. It is no secret that Durant left the Warriors to get away from the volatile Draymond Green, and it is reasonable to assume that his refusal to return to the Bay Area is primarily--if not exclusively--based on his disinclination to team up again with Mr. "Triple Single." The Athletic recently ranked Green as the 100th greatest NBA player of all-time, which is high--and undeserved--praise for a player sporting career averages of 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.6 apg with shooting splits of .450/.322/.707 (The Athletic ranked Butler 99th all-time, which seems a bit too high, though I agree with ranking Butler ahead of Green). There is no doubt that Green contributed playmaking and defense to the Warriors' four most recent championship teams, but he was fortunate to play alongside three legitimate Hall of Famers: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. When Green took the court for the 2019-20 Warriors without those three great players, the whole world saw what Green is all about as he averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. Green is a high level role player, not an all-time great player; separate him from great players, and he has little impact on winning (which does not change the fact that he has some impact on winning when he is surrounded by great players).

When people talk about Green's role on championship teams they should also talk about his role on costing the Warriors opportunities to win other championships as a result of his out of control behavior leading to suspensions and leading to Durant's departure/refusal to return. It will be interesting to see how history judges the Warriors' decision to hold onto Green while losing Durant, Thompson, and other players. Perhaps there is no market for Green's services outside of Golden State, but if there is any market then the Warriors should have gotten rid of Green and kept (or at least brought back) Durant.

Prior to Butler's arrival, the Warriors were fighting to stay above .500 and earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament. If all goes well, Butler could help the Warriors sneak into the playoffs, but it is difficult to picture this team winning a playoff series against any of the Western Conference's top four teams. It will be interesting to observe the Butler-Green chemistry, particularly if the Warriors continue to hover around .500. Neither player is shy about expressing his opinions.

Butler seemed poised to win the unofficial prize for self-centered inflation of his importance/worth after quitting on his team and pouting about losing his "joy" because of merely being paid close to $50 million per year to dribble a basketball, but then Schroder opened his mouth and claimed the prize all for himself. Schroder, a minor figure in the multi-team deal, will make $13 million this season. He is scoring 14.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting this season, numbers that are in line with his career averages, and he is very dissatisfied with his lot in life, whining that the way that NBA teams trade players is equivalent to "modern slavery."  Declaring that NBA players are slaves is so wildly delusional that it almost defies description. There are millions of people in the world who are struggling to obtain enough food to eat and who are deprived of basic human rights; those people are suffering modern slavery, and they would gladly trade places with Schroder. What Schroder fails to acknowledge is that--unlike a slave--he has the freedom to choose a different job, to choose where he lives, and even to make idiotic public statements without fear of repercussions from the government or his employer.

Labels: Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Anderson, Miami Heat, P.J. Tucker, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 10:05 AM

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Germany Advances to FIBA World Cup Finals After Upsetting Team USA, 113-111

Team USA will have to settle for the bronze medal--at best--in the FIBA World Cup after losing 113-111 to Germany. Andreas Obst led Germany's balanced attack with 24 points while shooting 6-11 from the field (including 4-8 from three point range) and 8-9 from the free throw line. Franz Wagner added 22 points, while Daniel Theis (21 points), Dennis Schroder (17 points), Moritz Wagner (10 points), and Johannes Thiemann (10 points) also scored in double figures. Keep in mind that FIBA games last 40 minutes, so giving up 113 points in a FIBA game is mathematically equivalent to giving up 136 points in a 48 minute NBA game--and that is a horrible defensive performance that will add up to a loss almost every time.

Anthony Edwards led Team USA with 23 points, followed by Austin Reaves (21 points), Mikal Bridges (17 points), and Jalen Brunson (15 points). Brandon Ingram missed the game due to an upper respiratory illness, but he has been a non-factor during the FIBA World Cup, averaging just 5.7 ppg. Team USA shot well--38-65 (.585) from the field, including 12-25 (.480) from three point range--but Team USA also shot well and scored over 100 points in their loss to Lithuania. It has been proven time and time again that Team USA's success in FIBA competition is linked to defense in general and three point defense specifically. Much has been said about Team USA's roster composition--specifically, the lack of size--but Germany only outrebounded Team USA 30-28. The real issue is that Team USA did not use their speed and depth to put enough pressure on Germany to create turnovers and contest shots. Germany committed 10 turnovers while Team USA committed nine turnovers, but it is vital for Team USA to force a large number of turnovers and then convert those extra possessions into easy scoring opportunities; the turnovers that Team USA failed to force combined with the numerous wide open shots that Team USA conceded proved to be the difference. 

From an individual talent standpoint, there is no German player who would start for Team USA, and few if any German players who would have even been selected for the Team USA roster had they been American citizens, so USA Basketball has to take a long, hard look not only at roster composition but also coaching philosophies. Should the Team USA roster be constructed based primarily on individual talent, or on actually putting together a group of players who can collectively play championship-caliber basketball in FIBA events? Is Team USA's coaching staff putting enough emphasis on the importance of perimeter defense, and is the roster comprised of players who grasp and implement that message? Two of the best Team USA squads ever--the 1992 Dream Team and the 2008 Redeem Team--featured guards/wing players who applied tremendous defensive pressure on the perimeter, primarily Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in 1992 and Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in 2008.  

The current version of Team USA is not good enough at pressuring ballhandlers, and is not disciplined enough in terms of getting back on defense and making sure that every shot is contested. It is safe to say that the 1992 U.S. team and the 2008 U.S. team would beat this year's Lithuania team and this year's Germany team by more than 20 points each, so while it is true that other countries have improved at basketball it is also undeniably true that Team USA has regressed from both a talent standpoint and an execution standpoint. I understand that the 2023 FIBA World Cup squad is not our "A" Team, but even our "B" Team should beat Lithuania and Germany, because those squads are not as good as the truly great FIBA teams from outside the United States such as Argentina's squads led by Manu Ginobili and Spain's teams led by Pau Gasol--and it must be noted that many other countries also sent their "B" Team, as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are just the two most prominent of many non-American players who skipped the 2023 World Cup. 

The bottom line is that we have seen this story before: Team USA losing to less talented teams because Team USA played awful defense.

Germany took an early lead with lights-out shooting and then prevailed after a late Team USA rally fell short. Germany shot 41-71 (.577) from the field overall, including 13-30 (.433) from three point range, but even those exceptional numbers do not tell the full story of how well Germany shot--or how poorly Team USA defended, depending on your perspective. Germany led for most of the game, and led by double digits for most of the fourth quarter. Germany built a 25-15 first quarter lead while making 4 of their first 7 three pointers and also scoring on several backdoor cuts to the hoop. Germany led 33-31 at the end of the first quarter while shooting 9-14 (.643) from the field overall, including 4-8 (.500) from three point range. Team USA shot 11-20 (.550) from the field, including 3-7 (.429) from three point range. Mikal Bridges topped Team USA with seven first quarter points, while Franz Wagner and Andreas Obst scored nine points each for Germany. As is often the case, the first quarter set the tone for the entire game; despite all of the attention often paid to late game heroics and "clutch time" statistics, what happens in the first quarter is very important and is mistakenly overlooked by commentators who do not understand the sport.

Team USA led 60-59 at halftime. Team USA's offense was productive and efficient with 22-37 (.595) field goal shooting, including 8-15 (.533) from three point range, but Team USA's defense was not good, permitting Germany to shoot 20-36 (.556) from the field, including 7-14 (.500) from three point range. Germany outrebounded Team USA 18-13. Bridges and Edwards led Team USA with 15 points each, while Franz Wagner (14 points) and Daniel Theis (13 points) paced Germany.

The third quarter was a defensive disaster for Team USA, as Germany poured in 35 points on 13-19 (.684) field goal shooting, including 5-10 (.500) from three point range. Keep in mind that 35 points in a 10 minute quarter projects to 168 points in a 48 minute game. With all due respect to Germany's team, any NBA team that gave up 168 points to a squad led by Schroder, the Wagner brothers, Theis, and Abst would quite possibly be the worst defensive team in league history--but much more should be expected of a Team USA roster that includes the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (Jaren Jackson Jr.), the 2023 Rookie of the Year (Paolo Banchero), and a host of highly touted young players such as Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Tyrese Haliburton.

Germany led 94-84 heading into the final stanza. Facing elimination, Team USA had their best defensive quarter of the game, holding Germany to 19 points on 8-16 (.500) field goal shooting, including 1-6 (.167) from three point range, but it was too little, too late, and that lone three pointer proved to be a dagger: Obst's trey with 1:14 remaining put Germany up 111-107, and then Schroder sealed the deal with a step back jumper at the :40 mark to push the lead to 113-107.

Germany will play Serbia in the gold medal game on Sunday, while Team USA will face Canada in the bronze medal game. It will be very interesting to see how focused and motivated Team USA is when battling a Canadian team that is less talented than Team USA but talented enough to pull off the upset if Team USA continues to play poor defense. It will also be interesting to see how Team USA's failure is spun by media members and by USA Basketball personnel; this is without question a failure, and that failure is caused by poor defense in general and poor perimeter defense in particular, the same factors that have caused previous failures by Team USA in FIBA events.

Labels: Andreas Obst, Anthony Edwards, Austin Reaves, Daniel Theis, Dennis Schroder, FIBA World Cup, Germany, Mikal Bridges, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 4:58 PM

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L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament

Doug Collins--four-time NBA All-Star, long-time NBA coach, and first-rate basketball commentator--used to say that you can tell a lot about a team by how that team reacts after a win. Did the team expect to win and does the team expect to do more, or is the team too excited about a win that should be considered routine? 

The L.A. Lakers have two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. The franchise prides itself on winning championships and having championship expectations. Being in the Play-In Tournament is an embarrassment for such a franchise, not an accomplishment, and winning a Play-In Tournament game should be considered a routine first step toward the achievement of the franchise's annual goal of capturing a championship.

The 2023 Lakers celebrated a 108-102 overtime Play-In Tournament game win versus the shorthanded 42-40 Minnesota Timberwolves as if they had beaten the archrival Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals.

The Timberwolves were in control for most of the game and led by as many as 15 points, but they have earned their reputation of not having an exceptionally high collective basketball IQ--and they confirmed that reputation by quite literally throwing the game away, committing six fourth quarter turnovers while shooting just 3-15 from the field in the final stanza.

If you close your eyes and listen carefully, you can hear the media members tapping out stories on their keyboards about how great the Lakers are, and how much they have turned things around since getting rid of Russell Westbrook.

Such stories are fairy tales.

I specialize in non-fiction, so let's take a non-fiction look at this game and at this Lakers team.

When the Lakers do well, the basis for their success is LeBron James and Anthony Davis attacking the paint on offense and protecting the paint on defense. James finished with a game-high 30 points on 12-21 field goal shooting. He added 10 rebounds and six assists. Davis lived in the paint, scoring 24 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 15 rebounds, including nine offensive rebounds. Davis had three blocked shots and two steals. Dennis Schroder added 21 points off of the bench; he had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, and he made essential contributions to this win. The Lakers outrebounded the Timberwolves 48-37 while outscoring the Timberwolves in the paint 54-36. Supposedly, the Lakers' early season problems were caused by turnovers and poor three point shooting--both of which were blamed on Westbrook--but the Lakers won this game despite committing 21 turnovers (Davis and James led the way with five turnovers apiece) and despite shooting .323 from three point range.

I will repeat, for those who are sitting in the back or are hard of hearing: the formula for Lakers' success involves attacking the paint and defending the paint. It is obviously helpful to make three pointers and not turn the ball over, but those things are not essential: the Lakers' "Bubble" championship team in 2020 ranked 22nd in the NBA in turnovers, 23rd in three pointers made, and 21st in three point shooting percentage.

The bottom line about the Lakers has been the same ever since James joined the team and recruited Davis: when James and Davis play in the paint, the Lakers have a great chance to win. When James and Davis do not play in the paint--or do not play at all--the Lakers are in trouble.

James had a very interesting performance. The Lakers trailed most of the way, and they trailed by 11 at halftime. Early in the second half, James had already scored 19 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, but the Lakers trailed 65-55 and he had a -20 plus/minus number, by far the worst of any player for either team. James finished with a -14 plus/minus number, the worst for any Laker. It's almost like James was not sure if the Lakers would win so he padded his stats in the early going to support the narrative that Lakers' losses are not his fault (even in games when the team is hemorrhaging points while he is on the court).

The Lakers brought in some legendary big game performers to replace Westbrook. We have been hearing for weeks about how much depth the Lakers have, and how many "lasers" (great outside shooters) the Lakers have. Let's take a look at how the Lakers' much-praised new players did in a home Play-In Tournament game against a depleted Minnesota team:

D'Angelo Russell: two points on 1-9 field goal shooting, eight assists. He is such an impactful player that Coach Darvin Ham played him for 20 seconds in the fourth quarter and 11 seconds in overtime. Yes, playoff D'Angelo is in full effect (his career playoff field goal percentage is .349).

Jarred Vanderbilt: zero points on 0-2 field goal shooting, and a wonderful -12 plus/minus number.

Malik Beasley: five points on 2-3 field goal shooting. 

For those of you scoring at home, Westbrook's replacements totaled seven points on 3-14 field goal shooting. "Lasers," indeed. It will be fascinating to watch those lasers firing away against the Memphis Grizzlies, who the Lakers will face in the first round of the playoffs.

Fortunately for the Lakers, all they had to do to survive the Play-In Tournament was beat a mediocre Minnesota team that is focused on self-destruction: starting center Rudy Gobert earned a suspension for this game after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, elite wing defender Jaden McDaniels ended his season after breaking his hand by punching a wall during the team's last regular season game, and the players who did not exile themselves from the lineup seemed incapable of making a sensible play during the game's final 17 minutes: in the fourth quarter and overtime, the Timberwolves shot 5-23 from the field (.217) while committing nine turnovers. 

The Timberwolves did their best to give away the game in regulation, but the Lakers kept giving it back; the Lakers 5-18 from the field in the fourth quarter while committing five turnovers. Yes, Play-In Tournament basketball is fantastic! With the Lakers leading 98-95, Davis fouled Mike Conley on a three point shot with .1 seconds remaining. Conley drained three free throws to send the game to overtime. Conley is a class act, and it was nice to see him come through in a clutch moment. He had an excellent game overall, finishing with 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting while adding four assists and four rebounds. Unfortunately, his heroics meant that we had to suffer through five more minutes of mediocre basketball. The Lakers had three turnovers and three field goals during the extra session, but they outscored the Timberwolves 10-4. 

The Timberwolves will get one more chance to qualify for the playoffs; they will have a home game against the winner of the New Orleans-Oklahoma City Play-In Tournament game. It will be interesting to see how the Timberwolves react to Gobert's return, and it will also be interesting to see how Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards perform. Anthony-Towns led the Timberwolves in scoring (24 points) and rebounds (11), and he was the only Minnesota player with a positive plus/minus number (+18)--but during the 12 minutes that he sat out due to foul trouble the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by 24 points! Edwards, as the old saying goes, could not hit the broadside of a barn with a bass fiddle, finishing with nine points on 3-17 field goal shooting. 

Be on the lookout for fairy tales about how everything negative for the Lakers this season was Westbrook's fault, and how the Lakers are a big threat to win the championship, and how the Timberwolves could be dangerous if they make the playoffs.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Dennis Schroder, Karl-Anthony Towns, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

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