Minnesota Versus Dallas Preview
Western Conference Finals
#3 Minnesota (56-26) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Minnesota, 3-1
Dallas can win if…Luka Doncic averages a 30 point triple double, Kyrie Irving averages at least 23 ppg and at least 7 apg, and Dallas' big men hold their own against Minnesota's big and versatile frontcourt. Doncic averaged 24.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 8.7 apg as Dallas upset the number one seeded Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 in the second round, and during the 2024 playoffs Doncic is averaging 27.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 9.1 apg (first in the league). Doncic, who won his first regular season scoring title this year (33.9
ppg), is consistently great, but his 2024 playoff scoring is lower than
his playoff scoring in 2021 and 2022 when he led the league in that
category (35.7 ppg in 2021, 31.7 ppg in 2022); the decrease in Doncic's scoring is partly because he has more help around him, and partly because he has been slowed at times by a host of nagging injuries. It is unlikely that Doncic will ever be a defensive stopper, but he has improved at that end of the court to the extent that opposing teams target him less often and have less success when they target him.
Kyrie Irving had some good moments versus Oklahoma City, but overall he barely played at an All-Star level, let alone at the level of the all-time great that he is supposed to be; he averaged 15.7 ppg, 6.2 apg, and 2.3 rpg, numbers that are below his overall 2024 playoff statistics (21.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.0 apg). Many TV commentators gush over Irving's ballhandling skills, but of greater importance to Dallas' winning chances are (1) his improved defensive effort this season and especially during the playoffs, and (2) his proven ability to be the second option on a championship team (2016 Cleveland Cavaliers).
The difference for the Mavericks between missing the playoffs last season and reaching the Western Conference Finals this season is the play of their midseason acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, two players who provide size, rebounding, and toughness. Washington was Dallas' second best player in the Oklahoma City series, averaging 17.7 ppg and 8.3 rpg while leading the team in three point field goals made (23) and three point field goal percentage (.469). Gafford led the team in blocked shots (2.0 bpg) versus Oklahoma City while also averaging 11.0 ppg and 7.5 rpg.
Gafford, Washington, and rookie Dereck Lively II give the Mavericks a much-needed paint presence at both ends of the court, but they face a significant challenge matching up with Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid.
Minnesota will win because…their size will enable them to control the paint at both ends of the court, and because Anthony Edwards will play Luka Doncic to at least a draw. The Timberwolves can throw a host of long-armed, rangy defenders at Irving--and Edwards has already publicly relished the opportunity to guard Irving. Oklahoma City's younger and bigger perimeter players gave Irving problems at both ends of the court, and Minnesota is a better defensive team than Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves will not shut down Doncic, but they have enough wing defenders and enough paint presence to prevent a steady diet of 40 point explosions.
Minnesota's big man trio earned a host of awards this season, and they overpowered the big, physical Denver Nuggets in the second round. Towns made the All-Star team for the fourth time, Gobert won his
record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, and Reid won the
Sixth Man of the Year award. Towns is a three level scorer, Gobert is
an elite rim protector who scores efficiently in the paint, and Reid
provides an athletic and energetic presence at both ends of the court.
Edwards is being prematurely crowned as the next Michael Jordan--Jordan won six Finals MVPs and six championships, while Edwards has won two playoff series so far--but if you ignore the hype and just watch his game then you will like what you see. Edwards is a three level scorer who is a deft and willing passer, and he is also an enthusiastic and effective defensive player. It is fair to say that he looks like a player who could be a perennial MVP contender, but it is ridiculous to compare a young player who is just starting his NBA journey with Jordan, who had no skill set weaknesses and who utilized his superlative skills to transform the Chicago Bulls into a dominant team.
Other things to consider: While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. The Timberwolves have Mike Conley's veteran, stabilizing influence at point guard, Anthony Edwards' superstar potential on the wing, and the big man trio discussed above. Their bench is excellent, and the biggest difference this season is that the team's maturity level has risen dramatically; there is no internal strife, and they have vastly reduced their bonehead plays that once inspired Charles Barkley to declare that they are "dumb as rocks."
In contrast, Mark Cuban has publicly embraced tanking--a disgraceful stance for which the NBA has fined him twice--and it is interesting to observe the favorable media coverage that he continues to receive despite (1) the Mavericks not being particularly successful on the court for most of his tenure and (2) the Mavericks' well-documented dysfunctional workplace culture that Cuban implausibly claimed that he knew nothing about. Cuban prematurely cast aside much of Dirk Nowitzki's supporting cast after the Mavericks won the 2011 NBA title, and as a result of that blunder--and other personnel miscues while Cuban ran the team's basketball operations--the Mavericks did not win a playoff series again until 2022. Then, Cuban responded to that success by letting Jalen Brunson walk away in free agency, and the Mavericks missed the playoffs in 2023. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that the Mavericks' success this season coincides with Cuban selling his majority interest in the team and taking a step back from controlling basketball operations. Cuban placed himself in the enviable position of remaining the public face of the franchise while enabling smarter people to make basketball decisions for which many media members will still give him credit.
Minnesota will defeat Dallas in six games.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves, Naz Reid, P.J. Washington, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 10:26 PM
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament
Doug Collins--four-time NBA All-Star, long-time NBA coach, and first-rate basketball commentator--used to say that you can tell a lot about a team by how that team reacts after a win. Did the team expect to win and does the team expect to do more, or is the team too excited about a win that should be considered routine?
The L.A. Lakers have two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. The franchise prides itself on winning championships and having championship expectations. Being in the Play-In Tournament is an embarrassment for such a franchise, not an accomplishment, and winning a Play-In Tournament game should be considered a routine first step toward the achievement of the franchise's annual goal of capturing a championship.
The 2023 Lakers celebrated a 108-102 overtime Play-In Tournament game win versus the shorthanded 42-40 Minnesota Timberwolves as if they had beaten the archrival Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals.
The Timberwolves were in control for most of the game and led by as many as 15 points, but they have earned their reputation of not having an exceptionally high collective basketball IQ--and they confirmed that reputation by quite literally throwing the game away, committing six fourth quarter turnovers while shooting just 3-15 from the field in the final stanza.
If you close your eyes and listen carefully, you can hear the media members tapping out stories on their keyboards about how great the Lakers are, and how much they have turned things around since getting rid of Russell Westbrook.
Such stories are fairy tales.
I specialize in non-fiction, so let's take a non-fiction look at this game and at this Lakers team.
When the Lakers do well, the basis for their success is LeBron James and Anthony Davis attacking the paint on offense and protecting the paint on defense. James finished with a game-high 30 points on 12-21 field goal shooting. He added 10 rebounds and six assists. Davis lived in the paint, scoring 24 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 15 rebounds, including nine offensive rebounds. Davis had three blocked shots and two steals. Dennis Schroder added 21 points off of the bench; he had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, and he made essential contributions to this win. The Lakers outrebounded the Timberwolves 48-37 while outscoring the Timberwolves in the paint 54-36. Supposedly, the Lakers' early season problems were caused by turnovers and poor three point shooting--both of which were blamed on Westbrook--but the Lakers won this game despite committing 21 turnovers (Davis and James led the way with five turnovers apiece) and despite shooting .323 from three point range.
I will repeat, for those who are sitting in the back or are hard of hearing: the formula for Lakers' success involves attacking the paint and defending the paint. It is obviously helpful to make three pointers and not turn the ball over, but those things are not essential: the Lakers' "Bubble" championship team in 2020 ranked 22nd in the NBA in turnovers, 23rd in three pointers made, and 21st in three point shooting percentage.
The bottom line about the Lakers has been the same ever since James joined the team and recruited Davis: when James and Davis play in the paint, the Lakers have a great chance to win. When James and Davis do not play in the paint--or do not play at all--the Lakers are in trouble.
James had a very interesting performance. The Lakers trailed most of the way, and they trailed by 11 at halftime. Early in the second half, James had already scored 19 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, but the Lakers trailed 65-55 and he had a -20 plus/minus number, by far the worst of any player for either team. James finished with a -14 plus/minus number, the worst for any Laker. It's almost like James was not sure if the Lakers would win so he padded his stats in the early going to support the narrative that Lakers' losses are not his fault (even in games when the team is hemorrhaging points while he is on the court).
The Lakers brought in some legendary big game performers to replace Westbrook. We have been hearing for weeks about how much depth the Lakers have, and how many "lasers" (great outside shooters) the Lakers have. Let's take a look at how the Lakers' much-praised new players did in a home Play-In Tournament game against a depleted Minnesota team:
D'Angelo Russell: two points on 1-9 field goal shooting, eight assists. He is such an impactful player that Coach Darvin Ham played him for 20 seconds in the fourth quarter and 11 seconds in overtime. Yes, playoff D'Angelo is in full effect (his career playoff field goal percentage is .349).
Jarred Vanderbilt: zero points on 0-2 field goal shooting, and a wonderful -12 plus/minus number.
Malik Beasley: five points on 2-3 field goal shooting.
For those of you scoring at home, Westbrook's replacements totaled seven points on 3-14 field goal shooting. "Lasers," indeed. It will be fascinating to watch those lasers firing away against the Memphis Grizzlies, who the Lakers will face in the first round of the playoffs.
Fortunately for the Lakers, all they had to do to survive the Play-In Tournament was beat a mediocre Minnesota team that is focused on self-destruction: starting center Rudy Gobert earned a suspension for this game after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, elite wing defender Jaden McDaniels ended his season after breaking his hand by punching a wall during the team's last regular season game, and the players who did not exile themselves from the lineup seemed incapable of making a sensible play during the game's final 17 minutes: in the fourth quarter and overtime, the Timberwolves shot 5-23 from the field (.217) while committing nine turnovers.
The Timberwolves did their best to give away the game in regulation, but the Lakers kept giving it back; the Lakers 5-18 from the field in the fourth quarter while committing five turnovers. Yes, Play-In Tournament basketball is fantastic! With the Lakers leading 98-95, Davis fouled Mike Conley on a
three point shot with .1 seconds remaining. Conley drained three free
throws to send the game to overtime. Conley is a class act, and it was nice to see him come through in a clutch moment. He had an excellent game overall, finishing with 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting while adding four assists and four rebounds. Unfortunately, his heroics meant that we had to suffer through five more minutes of mediocre basketball. The Lakers had three turnovers and three field goals during the extra session, but they outscored the Timberwolves 10-4.
The Timberwolves will get one more chance to qualify for the playoffs; they will have a home game against the winner of the New Orleans-Oklahoma City Play-In Tournament game. It will be interesting to see how the Timberwolves react to Gobert's return, and it will also be interesting to see how Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards perform. Anthony-Towns led the Timberwolves in scoring (24 points) and rebounds (11), and he was the only Minnesota player with a positive plus/minus number (+18)--but during the 12 minutes that he sat out due to foul trouble the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by 24 points! Edwards, as the old saying goes, could not hit the broadside of a barn with a bass fiddle, finishing with nine points on 3-17 field goal shooting.
Be on the lookout for fairy tales about how everything negative for the Lakers this season was Westbrook's fault, and how the Lakers are a big threat to win the championship, and how the Timberwolves could be dangerous if they make the playoffs.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Dennis Schroder, Karl-Anthony Towns, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves
posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM
Lakers Trade Future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook Without Improving Their Playoff Chances
The L.A. Lakers need to find a new scapegoat. As part of a three team deal, the Lakers parted ways with Russell Westbrook and acquired Malik Beasley, former Laker D'Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt. The Minnesota Timberwolves received Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and three second round draft picks, while the Utah Jazz received Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones, Westbrook, and a first round draft pick. The Jazz are expected to reach a buyout agreement with Westbrook, who will then have his choice of potential contenders who would be happy to sign the 2017 regular season MVP for the stretch run. While many media members mindlessly bash Westbrook, I agree with Hubie Brown, who praised Westbrook last season: "You can knock him, you can say you don't like him, but he plays hard and he earns his money every night."
The Jazz are tanking, while the Timberwolves have been disappointing and are not likely to improve dramatically as a result of this deal (though Conley could help stabilize the backcourt), so this article will focus on the Lakers and on how Westbrook has been demonized.
Westbrook did everything that the Lakers asked him to do, including accepting a demotion to a bench role that many lesser players have rejected. If the Lakers were not so awful this season, Westbrook would be a serious Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He is averaging 15.9 ppg, 7.5 apg (eighth in the league), and 6.2 rpg. His minutes have been slashed from 34.3 mpg last season to 28.7 mpg this season, but on a per minute basis he is exceeding his career norms for assists and rebounding while still demonstrating enough scoring punch to be a 20-plus ppg scorer given sufficient minutes and opportunities. Despite his limited role, he has posted four triple doubles this season. In short, he can still play an all-around game at a high level. He can make a significant contribution for a contending team that utilizes him properly and appreciates the many things that he does well as opposed to focusing on the few things at which he does not excel.
Don't be surprised if Westbrook and his next team make a deeper playoff run this season than the "new and improved" Lakers.
The way that LeBron James' media sycophants are now relentlessly bashing and trashing Westbrook with alleged quotes from an anonymous source is pathetic and shameful. Here is some good life advice for the anonymous source: if you have something to say to someone, say it to that person's face, or at least put your name to your words, and say it before that person has been shipped out of town. If the anonymous source exists, then that person is a coward. Here is some professional advice for people who purport to be journalists: if one person tells you something under cloak of anonymity that is is not credible and not supported by any evidence, the ethical thing to do is either find evidence or not repeat the comment. Alternatively, if your goal is to do public relations work for LeBron James and protect his reputation as his team flounders at the bottom of the standings, then just resign from your journalism job and become a p.r. flack.
If you have followed the NBA at all during Westbrook's career, you know that Westbrook has been a great and beloved teammate, and that players often have their career-best seasons playing alongside him. It is fascinating that the Lakers' habitual underachievement over the past several seasons is being blamed primarily on Westbrook, while the player crowned as supposedly the greatest of all-time is absolved of any responsibility. It is also fascinating that, after setting the NBA's regular season scoring mark on Tuesday, LeBron James literally checked out at winning time as his team lost and that James will not even play tonight. The "pass first" player who purports to be focused on winning championships has made it very clear that his main focus this season was surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on the career scoring list; doing so is without question a great accomplishment, but let's not pretend that winning games--let alone winning titles--is James' goal at this stage of his career.
I never went to propaganda school--I mean, journalism school--and I don't have a proprietary "advanced basketball statistic" that I am trying to monetize, but the narratives about the Lakers are puzzling. We are told that the Lakers' biggest need is outside shooting. This season the Lakers rank 26th in three point field goal percentage, so it is true that they do not shoot well beyond the arc--but during their 2020 championship season they ranked 21st in three point shooting. Are we supposed to believe that if they move up to 21st in that category this season they will vault from 13th place in the Western Conference to championship contention? We are told that Westbrook's poor three point shooting has been killing the Lakers. It is true that Westbrook is not a great three point shooter--but the Lakers average 31 three point field goal attempts per game, and their leader in three point field goal attempts (at more than seven per game) is shooting just .315 from three point range, well below the league average (.360) and dragging down the team's percentage to .338. You probably can guess who that misfiring long range gunner is. Somehow, I doubt that anyone is going to tell General Manager/Coach LeBron James that the team might be better off if he attempted fewer three pointers--and I am positive that Mike Wilbon, Dave McMenamin, and Brian Windhorst would slap themselves in the face if they even dreamed of saying or writing something that might result in them losing access to James. Wilbon was on TV today bragging about how "blessed" he has been to have so many one on one interviews with James over the past 20 years.
The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. LeBron James was still an energetic defensive player at that time, and Anthony Davis protected the paint as if he were saving his family from a rabid pack of wolves. This season's Lakers rank 28th in points allowed and 17th in defensive field goal percentage--and those critical numbers will not improve unless (1) James cares about defense again for more than just a highlight play or two, (2) Davis remains healthy and plays with any passion, and (3) the trio acquired for Westbrook become defensive stoppers. I'm not sure if the Lakers' three point field goal percentage will improve without Westbrook, but I am confident that unless the defense improves the Lakers will remain a bottom-feeding team.
The notion that D'Angelo Russell is some kind of savior in either the short term or the long term is laughable. Russell epitomizes what Kenny Smith often calls a "looter in a riot," a player who puts up big scoring numbers without impacting winning. Assuming that the Lakers make the playoffs, Russell's playoff career field goal percentage of .349 will obviously be very helpful!
Beasley and Vanderbilt are solid rotation players, but it is bizarre to state with a straight face that trading away a future Hall of Famer who always plays hard for a gunner and two solid rotation players represents a significant upgrade.
There may be many Laker fans who are rejoicing now, but they should take a good look at recent history: none of the teams that Westbrook left improved after his departure--not Oklahoma City, not Houston, and not Washington. It is very unlikely that the Lakers will break that trend. So, congratulations Laker Nation: the front office traded away the scapegoat, and the upside potential for this team if everything breaks right is the sixth seed, while the most likely scenario is limping into the Play-In Tournament and being eliminated before the playoffs begin.
Labels: D'Angelo Russell, Damian Jones, Jarred Vanderbilt, Juan Toscano-Anderson, L.A. Lakers, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Russell Westbrook, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 8:58 PM
Tony Allen Leads All-Defensive Team Voting, Larry Sanders Snubbed for Center Spot Despite Receiving More Votes than Marc Gasol
Tony Allen and LeBron James each received 25 First Team votes for the All-Defensive Team; the NBA's 30 head coaches select the All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position and are not allowed to vote for their own players. A First Team vote is worth two points, while a Second Team vote is worth one point. Allen received three Second Team votes, meaning that only one coach did not select Allen (since Allen's Coach Lionel Hollins is not permitted to choose Allen). Allen's 53 points pace this year's All-Defensive Team. James received one Second Team vote and thus finished with 52 points. James also finished second (to Marc Gasol) in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, which is conducted among media members; Allen finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Serge Ibaka is the other All-Defensive First Team forward (17 First Team votes, 12 Second Team votes), while Chris Paul (15 First Team votes, seven Second Team votes) completes the First Team backcourt. Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah each earned 24 points, so they split the First Team center spot; Chandler received nine First Team votes and six Second Team votes, while Noah received eight First Team votes and eight Second Team votes.
The All-Defensive Second Team consists of forwards Tim Duncan and Paul George, center Marc Gasol and guards Avery Bradley and Mike Conley.
The NBA's official press release states that Larry Sanders finished with 16 points (including four First Team votes); it is not clear why he is not listed as the Second Team center over Marc Gasol, who earned 12 points (five First Team votes, two Second Team votes). Sanders is designated as a center at the Milwaukee Bucks' official website and at every other website/publication that I have seen.
Another irregularity in the press release is that only 149 of the 150 First Team votes are noted; the listed point totals correctly add up to 450 (30 coaches multiplied by five positions multiplied by two points for each First Team vote and one point for each Second Team vote), so apparently whoever put the press release together neglected to account for one of the First Team votes by listing it in parentheses next to the name of the player who received that vote. Also, although the voting is supposed to be done by position, the listed First Team votes do not add up properly. Forwards received 56 First Team votes (LeBron James 25, Serge Ibaka 17, Paul George seven, Tim Duncan three, Luol Deng one, Kenneth Faried one, Nic Batum one, Metta World Peace one) instead of 60. Since Sanders received four First Team votes it really looks like the coaches and the NBA wrongly classified Sanders as a forward. Guards received 60 First Team votes. Centers Chandler (nine), Noah (eight), Gasol (five), Dwight Howard (three) and Roy Hibbert (two) received 27 First Team votes. Those numbers--56 votes for forwards, 60 votes for guards, 27 votes for centers, four votes for Sanders--add up to 147, with the one uncounted vote pushing the total to 148.
The other two First Team votes belong to Andre Iguodala; it is not clear how the voters and/or the NBA categorized Iguodala but regardless of whether one correctly lists Iguodala as a guard (Danilo Gallinari is Denver's starting small forward) or whether one lists Iguodala as a forward (he can play that position, though he mainly played guard this season) the positional numbers still do not add up to 60, 60, 30 (i.e., two First Team forwards, two First Team guards and one First Team center on each ballot) the way that they should. Perhaps these concerns seem trivial but--unless Sanders has suddenly changed positions or unless the listed vote totals are wrong--the NBA should issue a correction and award Sanders All-Defensive Second Team status over Gasol.
As usual,
my All-Defensive Team selections closely mirrored the coaches' choices. The coaches agreed with three of my First Team picks (Allen, Ibaka, James) and six of my 10 choices overall--seven if in fact Sanders actually was voted as the Second Team center even though the press release does not list him as such. I left Avery Bradley and Joakim Noah off of my team because they missed 32 and 16 games respectively; I don't see how Bradley is a valid choice after missing nearly half of the season. I chose Thabo Sefolosha (who finished just four points behind Conley) and Roy Hibbert instead of Bradley and Noah.
I don't understand why the coaches picked Chandler over Hibbert. Chandler made the All-Defensive Second Team last season but this season his individual numbers are slightly worse (6.5 defensive rebounds per game in 2012 plus 1.4 bpg; 6.6 defensive rebounds per game in 2013 plus 1.1 bpg) and the New York Knicks' team defense is worse: the Knicks ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage in 2012 but dropped to 19th this season and they dropped from 18th to 25th in defensive rebounding, though they did improve slightly (from 11th to seventh) in points allowed. Hibbert and Gasol clearly had more impact defensively both in terms of their individual statistics and in terms of their teams' defensive statistics.
Previous Articles About All-Defensive Team Voting
Interesting Contrasts Between All-Defensive Team Voting and Defensive Player of the Year Voting (2012)
Bryant and Garnett Each Earn All-Defensive First Team Honors for the Ninth Time (2011)
Analyzing the Votes for the All-Defensive Team and the All-NBA Team (2010)
Howard, Bryant Lead All-Defensive Team Voting (2009)
Labels: Avery Bradley, Chris Paul, Joakim Noah, Larry Sanders, LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Paul George, Serge Ibaka, Tim Duncan, Tony Allen, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 PM
