Lakers Overcome Slow Start, Rout Heat in Game One
The Miami Heat raced to a 23-10 lead over the L.A.Lakers in game one of the NBA Finals, but the Lakers tied the score at 28 just before the end of the first quarter, led 65-48 at halftime and were never threatened the rest of the way en route to a 116-98 win. Anthony Davis dominated at both ends of the court, finishing with a game-high 34 points on 11-21 field goal shooting plus nine rebounds, five assists, and three blocked shots. He led both teams with a +23 plus/minus number. Davis matched Elgin Baylor for the third most points scored by a Laker in his Finals debut, trailing only Shaquille O'Neal (43 points) and George Mikan (42 points).
LeBron James started the game slowly--he scored just nine points on 2-6 field goal shooting in the first half--but he padded his numbers in the second half during what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time," finishing with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, a game-high 13 rebounds, and nine assists. He had a +10 plus/minus number, but plus/minus numbers can be skewed by garbage time and it is worth noting that James' first half plus/minus number was +4 despite his team leading by 17; for all practical purposes, the outcome was decided in the first half, when Davis had a +19 plus/minus number, and four other Lakers had plus/minus numbers of at least +18: Alex Caruso (+20), Rajon Rondo (+20), and Kyle Kuzma (+18). The main stories in the first half were (1) the Heat could not match up with Davis and (2) the Lakers' bench destroyed the Heat's bench. In the first half, Miami reserves had stunningly bad plus/minus numbers, including Tyler Herro (-30) and Andre Iguodala (-27). The Lakers took over the game after James sat out for his normal first quarter rest, they extended the margin after James returned, and they never looked back.
The Lakers started one of their bigger lineups with Davis (6-10), Dwight Howard (6-10), and James (6-9) in the frontcourt, so it is not surprising that the Lakers outrebounded the Heat 54-36--but the Lakers also set a franchise
record for most three pointers made in an NBA Finals game (15). Other than the first few minutes--and not counting anything that happened in garbage time--it is difficult to think of anything that the Heat did well on a consistent basis.
Jimmy Butler was the only player from the Heat's regular rotation who played well, contributing a team-high 23 points on 8-13 field goal shooting plus five assists. Butler was hobbled by a left ankle injury but he still played 33 minutes. Bam Adebayo struggled (eight points on 2-8 field goal shooting, four rebounds in 21 minutes) before leaving the game due to a shoulder injury. Goran Dragic scored six points on 3-8 field goal shooting in 15 minutes before suffering a foot injury that caused him to miss the second half. Kendrick Nunn--who may not have played at all had the game been close and had Dragic not been injured--piled up 18 points in garbage time, and Herro finished with 14 points on 6-18 field goal shooting along with a -35 plus/minus number.
NBA Finals history contains many examples of teams losing game one but winning the series; this has happened at least once in each of the past five decades, with some prominent examples including Portland (1977), L.A. Lakers (1985), Chicago (1991), Miami (2006), and Dallas (2011). However, in this series the Heat face an uphill battle for several reasons: (1) the Lakers have not only the two best players but also the deeper bench, (2) the Heat seemed to have no answers even at full strength during the first half, and (3) it is not clear when/if Adebayo and/or Dragic will return to action.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM
L.A. Lakers Versus Miami Preview
NBA Finals
L.A. Lakers (52-19) vs. Miami (33-29)
Season series: L.A., 2-0
Miami can win if…Jimmy Butler is the best player on the court down the stretch, Bam Adebayo controls the paint, and some combination of Goran Dragic/Tyler Herro/Duncan Robinson stretches the Lakers' defense with effective three point shooting.
Butler has developed a propensity for starting games slowly only to take over down the stretch. He claims that this is by design--he gets his teammates involved early before serving as the late game closer--but it would be surprising if this proves to be a recipe for championship success. While it is true that some great players prefer to ease into the flow of the game, Butler often takes this to the extreme, resulting in Miami falling behind by double digits. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant were two of the deadliest closers in pro basketball history, but they did not make a habit of being virtually invisible on offense during the first three quarters. Butler is second on the team in playoff scoring (20.7 ppg), tied
for second in playoff rebounding (5.7 rpg), third in playoff assists
(4.5 apg) and first in playoff steals (1.9 spg). He averaged 19.0 ppg (fourth on the team), 6.0 rpg (third on the team), 5.0 apg (second on the team), and 1.7 spg (first on the team) during Miami's six game win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. He must be a consistent and productive scorer--that means stringing together 20 point games, as opposed to scoring 30 followed by 10--while also making an impact defensively, particularly when he is matched up with LeBron James.
Adebayo has been a tremendous all-around force during the playoffs, ranking third on the team in playoff scoring (18.5 ppg), first in playoff rebounding (11.4 rpg), first in playoff assists (4.9 apg), second in
playoff steals (1.2 spg), and first in playoff blocked shots (.9 bpg). He was at his best in the Eastern Conference Finals, leading the team in scoring (21.8 ppg), rebounding (11.0 rpg), assists (5.2 apg), and steals (1.7 spg) while ranking second in blocked shots (1.0 bpg). He will be matched up with Anthony Davis, and he has the necessary skill set plus the correct mentality to challenge Davis at both ends of the court. Adebayo's playmaking ability forces the defense to protect not only against his drives and his rolls to the hoop, but also against his passing.
Dragic is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (20.9 ppg) while shooting .452 from the field (including .363 from beyond the arc) and .814 from the free throw line. He ranks second on the team in playoff assists (4.7 apg). He has thrived as the third best player, taking advantage of the attention opposing teams must pay to All-Stars Butler and Adebayo.
Herro ranks fourth on the team in playoff scoring (16.5 ppg), including a 37 point explosion in a game four Eastern Conference Finals win, setting the record for most points by a rookie in a Conference Finals game. Thanks in part to Miami's 3-2 defense that lifts the wings and positions the guards closer to the basket, he ranks fourth on the team in playoff rebounding (5.5 rpg), including second on the team in rebounding (6.3 rpg) versus the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Robinson led Miami with 20 three point field goals made versus Boston while shooting .408 from long range. He is not the consistent scorer or all-around impact player that Butler, Adebayo, Dragic, and Herro are, but his outside shooting could prove to be critical versus L.A.
Another key for Miami will be Andre Iguodala's defense versus LeBron James. Iguodala has already won a Finals MVP (2015) based largely on his ability to at least slow down James, and he has consistently shown that he guards James at least as well as any other player in recent memory.
L.A. will win because…the Lakers have the more talented, deeper roster, starting with two of the top five players in the league. LeBron James had yet another MVP caliber regular season, while Anthony Davis also played at an MVP level and was a contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
James ranks second on the Lakers in playoff scoring (26.7 ppg) while
shooting .547 from the field (including .349 from beyond the arc) and
.741 from the free throw line. James leads the Lakers in playoff
rebounding (10.3 rpg) and playoff assists (8.9 apg) while also averaging
1.3 spg and 1.0 bpg. James averaged 27.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg, and 9.0 apg
versus Denver, ranking second, first, and first on the team in those
categories. It is remarkable that James continues to play at such a high level as a 35 year old in his 17th NBA season.
Davis is leading the Lakers in playoff scoring (28.8 ppg) while shooting .571 from the field (including .366 from beyond the arc) and .810 from the free throw line. Davis is also averaging 9.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.2 bpg, and 1.2 spg. Davis led the Lakers in scoring (31.2 ppg) in a five game win over the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, but he posted subpar rebounding (6.2 rpg) and shot blocking (.6 bpg) numbers during that series; there is no excuse for a player with his size and athletic ability to average less than at least 9-10 rpg and at least 1.5-2.0 bpg. Nevertheless, Davis--when properly focused--has no skill set weaknesses: he can score from inside, outside, and the free throw line, he is capable of being a dominant rebounder, he is an above average passer, and he is an elite defender.
As is often the case, many media members are pretending that James' supporting cast is not very strong. Don't buy that nonsense. First, the Lakers clearly have the two best players in this series, and that is typically the decisive factor in a playoff series. Second, their supporting cast includes one certain Hall of Famer (Dwight Howard) and one serious Hall of Fame candidate (Rajon Rondo)--and, unlike some Hall of Famers on previous championship contenders (I won't name names here), they are not just along for the ride hoping to pick up a championship ring while others do the heavy lifting: Howard has been a force in the paint, while Rondo's leadership, playmaking, and defense have been vital. The Lakers also have a potential future All-Star (Kyle Kuzma), a "3 and D" player with championship experience (Danny Green), and other solid role players.
Other things to consider:
This is LeBron James' 10th NBA Finals appearance but the first time that he has faced one of his former teams on the sport's biggest stage. After James left Miami to rejoin the Cleveland Cavaliers, Pat Riley declared that the Heat would no longer have to deal with "smiling faces with hidden agendas." Riley had one particular smiling face in mind, and it is not a mystery that James was that smiling face. This matchup is deeply personal for both men, regardless of what either may say publicly now.
After failing to win a championship during his first stint in Cleveland, James learned how to win as a member of Riley's Heat. James led the Heat to two titles, and then picked up a third title after going back to Cleveland. During his long Finals career, James has lost as a favorite (2011) and won as an underdog (2016) but he long ago stated the standard by which he should be measured: he never considers his team to be an underdog because he ranks himself as the best player on the planet. By the standard that James has set for himself, a 3-6 NBA Finals record is disappointing, to say the least. Further, there is no rational excuse for James' Lakers to not win this series. James is healthy and at the top of his game. Davis is an elite player entering his prime. The Heat do not have a top 10 player--let alone a top five player--while the Lakers have two top five players. It could be argued that James' legacy is already written, but that would only be true if he had retired; he kept playing, and he kept playing at a high level, so if he fails to win the title and drops to 3-7 in the NBA Finals that reinforces the notion that James is lacking something that Bill Russell (11-1 in the NBA Finals), Michael Jordan (6-0), Kobe Bryant (5-2), and other Pantheon players possessed. That is the standard that James set for himself, and it is the standard to which players of his caliber should be held.
This is also a "legacy" series for Davis. Perhaps he will advance to the NBA Finals many more times, but nothing is promised. This is is first opportunity to show what he can do in the NBA Finals, and such opportunities should be cherished and embraced.
No Heat player has put together a Hall of Fame caliber resume yet, but the player who has the most to gain is Butler. Many media members painted him as a malcontent after his stints in Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, but Butler is making a strong case that he was not the problem in those situations; those teams have suffered in his absence, while he and the Heat have been a perfect match. If Butler can lead the Heat to a title versus the James-Davis duo then that will permanently elevate his status. Butler is not as big or talented as James or Davis, but James has a losing Finals record against several All-Stars who are not as big or talented, so the possibility of an upset cannot be discounted.
Regardless of the outcome, the Heat should be commended for the mentality that they embrace: under Riley's leadership, the Heat have never tanked and they have never made excuses. Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie, and other "stat gurus" who have been lauded in the media despite never winning anything of consequence should carefully study how Riley runs an organization.
The Heat have enough talent and the right mentality to challenge the Lakers. If the Heat provide that challenge, then it will be interesting to see how the Lakers respond.
I predict that the Lakers will win in six games.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Dwight Howard, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 12:26 AM
Boston Versus Miami Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Boston (48-24) vs. #5 Miami (44-29)
Season series: Boston, 2-1
Miami can win if…Jimmy Butler is dominant--not good, not very good, but dominant. Butler is leading Miami in playoff scoring (21.8 ppg, including a team-best 23.4 ppg as the Heat upset the number one seed Milwaukee Bucks), but he has only scored at least 20 points in four of Miami's nine playoff games. In the other five games, Butler has scored 18 points, 17 points twice, 13 points, and six points. Butler's overall production is good, but there is more value in consistently scoring 20-25 points than in scoring six points in one game (as Butler did in game four of Miami's first round sweep over Indiana) and then 40 points in the next game (as Butler did in game one of Miami's five game second round win over Milwaukee).
Former All-Star Goran Dragic has thrived in this year's playoffs; he has more talent around him than he did in previous seasons, and he is most productive and efficient when he does not have to carry the weight of being the number one option. Opposing defenses focus on Butler and also have to pay attention to All-Star center Bam Adebayo, so Dragic has a lot of room to operate.
One possible advantage for the Heat is that--much like a baseball team that is strong up the middle with All-Stars at catcher, shortstop, and center fielder--Miami is receiving All-Star caliber play at all three levels: guard (Goran Dragic), wing (Jimmy Butler), and big man (Bam Adebayo). The Celtics are a perimeter-oriented team without an All-Star big man, and they may have to go small to win this series, much like they went small for extended stretches versus Toronto; however, going small against the Heat could leave Boston vulnerable in the paint, as Adebayo could punish the Celtics to a greater extent than any of Toronto's big men did.
Boston will win because…Jayson Tatum is emerging as an elite player. Tatum is the Celtics' playoff leader in scoring (25.3 ppg) and rebounding (10.1 rpg) while also averaging 4.3 apg. In Boston's 92-87 game seven victory over Toronto, Tatum led both teams in all three categories (29 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists); he joined Larry Bird and LeBron James as the only players to lead both teams outright in all three categories in a seventh game.
Jaylen Brown is second for the Celtics in playoff scoring (21.0 ppg) and rebounding (7.6 ppg), while Kemba Walker is averaging just a shade under 20 ppg in the playoffs. The Celtics may have acquired Walker to be the number one option, but he is the team's third option behind Tatum and Brown.
If Gordon Hayward can return from injury for Boston then he could provide a lift as a playmaker and as a valuable perimeter defender.
Other things to consider: This is the first time since the NBA went to a 16 team playoff format in 1984 that the Eastern Conference Finals will not include the number one seed or the number two seed, but this is not a shocking circumstance in a "bubble" environment that negates the value of home court advantage. Boston became the first team in NBA history to win four "road" games in one series. Would Boston have won game seven versus Toronto had that game been played in Toronto? We will never know the answer to that question, but regardless of any extenuating circumstances both Boston and Miami deserve respect for earning upset victories by playing great defense supplemented by timely offense.
This is Boston's third appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals in the past four years. That sustained success has flown under the radar to some extent, perhaps because the Celtics have not made it to the NBA Finals since 2010 and because the Celtics have played musical chairs with All-Star point guards (Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker) during the past several years. Coach Brad Stevens has been on the bench for all three Eastern Conference Finals appearances, and he has established himself as one of the league's best coaches.
I picked Toronto to beat Boston in seven games, and that series was up for grabs until the final seconds of game seven, so even though my pick was wrong I am not shocked by the outcome. I like Jimmy Butler as a two-way player and as a leader; it is clear how much Philadelphia misses him, and how much he has helped Miami. This evenly matched series may very well be decided by whether Butler or Tatum is the best player. In my
Toronto Versus Boston Preview I wrote,
"If Tatum establishes himself as clearly the best player on the court
during this series, then the Celtics could outlast the Raptors." In game
seven, Tatum became the second youngest player to post at least 25
points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least five assists in a seventh
game. Kobe Bryant, Tatum's mentor, is the youngest player to post such
numbers. For all of the talk about Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, and others, we may look back on the 2020 playoffs as the coming out party for Tatum, much like Bryant elevated his status during the Lakers' run to the 2000 NBA title.
I expect this series to be just as close as the Boston-Toronto series, and I am picking Boston to beat Miami in seven games.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Goran Dragic, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 2:47 AM
Milwaukee Versus Miami Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Milwaukee (56-17) vs. #5 Miami (44-29)
Season series: Miami, 2-1
Miami can win if…the Heat are able to limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's paint touches without compromising their defense against Milwaukee's three point shooters. The Heat are the only Eastern Conference team to post a winning head to head record versus the Bucks this season, and Miami's only loss to Milwaukee was a seeding game when both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic did not play. The Heat must continue to get strong play not only from Butler and Dragic, but also Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson, each of whom averaged at least 12.5 ppg as the Heat swept the Indiana Pacers in the first round.
Milwaukee will win because…The Bucks are a well-balanced team; they can score in a variety of ways, and they are very good defensively. The Bucks are willing to concede a few three point shots to specific players, but they focus on shutting down the paint.
Antetokounmpo has emerged as the best player in the NBA for at least the past two seasons. During Milwaukee's 4-1 victory over Orlando in the first round, he led the Bucks in scoring (30.6 ppg) and rebounding (16.0 rpg) while shooting .590 from the field, and he also ranked second on the team in assists (6.0 apg). Antetokounmpo has already been selected as the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year for 2019-20, and he must be considered the favorite to win the 2019-20 MVP award as well. Antetokounmpo won the 2018-19 MVP, so if he wins a second MVP then he would join the elite group of pro basketball players who have won at least two regular season MVPs (Bob Pettit, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Mel Daniels, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry). Note that every one of those players except for Karl Malone and Steve Nash eventually won at least one championship, and most of them won at least two championships.
Khris Middleton did not have a great series versus Orlando, but he is an All-Star and I expect him to be more focused and efficient versus Miami.
Other things to consider: A shoulder injury limited Butler's minutes and effectiveness in game four versus Indiana. It is vital for Miami that Butler is at full strength, or pretty close to full strength.
I have not mentioned George Hill up to this point because I do not expect him to have a major impact on this series. I have long respected him as a solid role player, but he is not a difference maker. In the past week, it has become apparent that he has an elevated sense of his importance. I understand that these are challenging times for a variety of reasons, and I understand that it may not be easy to stay in the "bubble" with so much happening--but no one is a prisoner in the "bubble" and if I were one of Hill's Milwaukee teammates then I would tell him "Either you're in or you're out. If you're in, then stop talking about not wanting to come here or not wanting to stay here. If you're out, then go home."
I am not saying that Hill should not speak about whatever issues he wants to speak about--but I am saying that it is disrespectful to his teammates to keep talking about not wanting to be there when they are making the same sacrifices that he is making not only to pursue an NBA championship but also to use their platform to promote their perspectives about social justice. If Hill thinks that he has better things to do by himself outside of the "bubble," then he is free to give up his salary, go home and do those things. He does not seem to understand that if he were not a bench player for the best team in the East then no one would know who he is, or that if he leaves the "bubble" on his own no one is going to care what he says or does. It has been reported that during Wednesday night's heated players-only meeting Udonis Haslem--in a message clearly directed at Hill--stated that it is "irresponsible and selfish" for veteran players to talk about striking when the younger players are not in a financial position to take such a drastic step. Hill led the way regarding the impulsive
strike, and then the NBA's real leaders scrambled to figure out a plan for what to do next.
If Hill left the team, the
Bucks might be better off at this point, particularly if he is already
as mentally checked out as he seems to be. No one is watching the Bucks to see Hill play, and--while Hill has a right to express his opinions--no one is particularly interested in hearing more about Hill's opinions.
I am picking Milwaukee in six games.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks
posted by David Friedman @ 1:15 AM
