20 Second Timeout

New York Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#3 New York (53-29) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)

Season series: New York, 2-1

Cleveland can win if…the Cavaliers' defense limits Jalen Brunson's scoring while also shutting down the passing lanes for Karl-Anthony Towns, whose playmaking has unlocked a new level of productivity and efficiency for the Knicks' offense. The Cavaliers will also need to get high level performances from Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.

Mitchell averaged a team-high 28.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 3.6 apg in the second round as the Cavaliers upset the number one seeded Detroit Pistons, and he shined in Cleveland's 125-94 game seven rout at Detroit with a game-high 26 points, a game-high eight assists, six rebounds, and no turnovers. After the Pistons seized a 2-0 series lead, Mitchell scored 35 points and 43 points in the next two games as the Cavaliers tied the series at 2-2 before squeezing out an overtime win on the road to take a 3-2 lead. In Mitchell's 43 point performance--a 112-103 Cleveland win--he only scored four first half points before tying Sleepy Floyd's 1987 playoff record for points in a half (39) to carry the Cavaliers to victory. Overall, Mitchell is averaging a team-high 25.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg in the 2026 playoffs as the Cavaliers have won game seven in back to back series.

Mobley averaged 15.9 ppg, a team-high 7.4 rpg, 4.9 apg, and a team-high 2.7 bpg versus the Pistons. He is averaging 17.0 ppg, a team-high 8.0 rpg, 4.1 apg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs. Mobley has not developed into the Tim Duncan-level MVP performer that Cleveland fans hoped/dreamed that he would become, but he is a versatile big man who is capable of impacting the game in many ways at both ends of the court.

Charles Barkley criticized Allen for being too nice and too soft to be a dominant player, but Allen came up big in both of Cleveland's game seven wins: he had a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Cavaliers defeated Toronto 114-102, and then he contributed 23 points, seven rebounds, and one blocked shot as the Cavaliers shut down the Pistons. Allen averaged 14.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 1.4 bpg versus the Pistons, and he is averaging 13.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs. 

James Harden ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (20.1 ppg) and first in assists (6.2 apg), but he also has the second highest turnover average in the playoffs (4.8 tpg) while shooting just .415 from the field. Harden once bragged of his offensive prowess, "I'm not a system player; I am a system," but the reality is that Harden generates too many empty possessions on offense while being a traffic cone as a perimeter defender (he uses his strength and quick hands to be a solid defender in the paint on the occasions when he gets back on defense). 

In my Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview, I emphasized Harden's awful elimination game resume:

His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's resume prior to 2022 in games when his team faced elimination included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors. 

The Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018 despite Harden scoring just 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) in their two game seven wins, as Harden's elimination game resume grows (or shrinks, depending on how one looks at this). 

It is often said that Harden has a high basketball IQ--but a player with a high basketball IQ would not consistently commit careless turnovers during the most important playoff games. Many commentators make excuses for Harden's recent playoff failures by citing his age, but the record demonstrates that Harden was a playoff choker as a young player and during his prime, so his collapses in the biggest playoff moments cannot and should not be attributed to age or to any factor other than a serious shortcoming in Harden's mentality for such high leverage games. 

Harden may produce some good or at least decent performances early in this series, but the Cavaliers cannot count on him if the series extends to six or seven games. If the Cavaliers beat the Knicks they will do so despite Harden, not because of him. There is a heavy burden on Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen to perform not just at the All-Star level that is rightfully expected of them but even higher than that to compensate for Harden's shortcomings. The Cavaliers acquired Harden to be the difference, and he has caused internal problems on previous teams when he did not like his role, so no matter how poorly he plays it is not likely that coach Kenny Atkinson will limit Harden's role or his minutes. Harden leads the Cavaliers in playoff minutes (37.4 mpg) 

New York will win because…the Knicks are the most dominant team in the 2026 NBA playoffs, ranking first in point differential (19.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.517), and three point field goal percentage (.408) while ranking second in scoring (120.4 ppg) and points allowed (101.0 ppg).

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (29.0 ppg) as the Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round, and his shooting splits during that series (.513/.448/.920) were exceptional. Overall during the 2026 playoffs, he is pacing the Knicks with 27.4 ppg with shooting splits of .485/.409/.864. Brunson is undersized and not a great defensive player, but his efficient clutch shooting makes up for his deficiencies. He is also a good playmaker, ranking second on the team with 6.0 apg versus the 76ers, and he had just seven turnovers in four games.

Karl-Anthony Towns made the All-Star team six times--including each of the last three seasons--as a high scoring big man who also rebounds well, but during the 2026 playoffs he has become an elite passing big man. He led the Knicks with 7.5 apg versus the 76ers while also averaging 15.5 ppg on .618 field goal shooting and ranking second on the team with 8.0 rpg. He is averaging 17.4 ppg, a team-high 10.0 rpg, and a team-high 6.6 apg during the 2026 playoffs. Towns' playmaking may be the biggest surprise of the playoffs; he had never averaged more than 2.6 apg in the playoffs and his playoff single game career-high in assists had been five, but in the 2026 playoffs he has logged his first two postseason triple doubles while posting at least six assists in seven of the Knicks' 10 playoff games.

OG Anunoby averaged 21.0 ppg with a team-high .640 field goal percentage in the first two games versus the 76ers before missing games three and four with a right hamstring strain. He is expected to be available for the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Anunoby leads the Knicks in playoff steals (1.9 spg) while ranking second in scoring (21.4 ppg) and blocked shots (1.1 bpg), and third in rebounding (7.5 rpg).

Mikal Bridges (17.5 ppg on .638 field goal shooting) and Josh Hart (10.5 ppg, team-high 8.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, team-high 2.0 spg) also had strong performances versus the 76ers.

Other things to consider: It is fascinating to watch narratives evolve to fit agendas. Before the playoffs began, the Atlanta Hawks were characterized as a dangerous team that could be tough to beat. After the Hawks took a 2-1 lead in their first round series versus the Knicks, commentators could not decide whether to praise the Hawks or blast the Knicks. Then, the Knicks reeled off three straight wins, and the new narrative became that the Hawks were not a very challenging opponent.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years, and the hype machine ramped up after they came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the first round. Media members love to praise Joel Embiid and "The Process," insisting that if Embiid can stay healthy then the 76ers could beat anyone in a seven game series. Spoiler alert: Embiid never stays healthy, and his career playoff series record is 6-8, including 0-6 in the second round. 

The Knicks annihilated the 76ers in the second round, capping off a 4-0 sweep with a record-setting 144-114 game four win; the Knicks tied the NBA playoff record with 11 three pointers in the first quarter, tied the NBA playoff record with 25 three pointers in a game, set a franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and set a franchise record with their seventh consecutive playoff victory. This is the first time the Knicks swept a best of seven playoff series since 1999.

The narrative then shifted from the 76ers being a formidable opponent to the Knicks reaching the Eastern Conference Finals without facing a strong opponent. 

The reality--separated from any narratives and agendas--is that the Knicks' point differential of 19.4 points per game through their first 10 playoff games this year is the best point differential in a 10 game span in NBA playoff history. The Knicks are the fifth team to log multiple 140 games in the same postseason. Unless one makes the implausible argument that the Knicks faced the weakest opposition in the first two rounds in the history of the NBA playoffs, one should give the Knicks credit for starting the playoffs in dominant fashion.

Of course, the Knicks' job is not done: owner James Dolan made it clear prior to this season that he expects this team to win a championship, and that is why he fired successful coach Tom Thibodeau to bring in Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals, and who won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2009 and 2023. 

Commentators who don't understand basketball have often accused Mike Brown of being a subpar offensive coach and a coach who is not good at making adjustments. When Mike Brown led the Sacramento Kings' high-powered offense, his critics did not admit that they had been wrong about him; instead, they spoke about his alleged "evolution" as a coach. Don't be surprised if Brian Windhorst uncorks another article about Brown's supposed "evolution," because it is unlikely that Windhorst and his narrative-spewing cohorts will admit that they have ever been wrong. 

Brown is an excellent coach who adapts his methods and game plans to the personnel on his roster; he did that in Cleveland, L.A., and Sacramento, and now he is doing it in New York. That is not to say that he has learned nothing during his long coaching career. Anyone who is good at his craft understands the importance of being a lifelong learner--but there is a difference between an accomplished person learning versus a person being deficient and then learning to be competent, and Brown's critics erred by portraying his as deficient. During Brown's first stint in Cleveland, the Cavaliers ranked 15th in scoring and 16th in field goal percentage in the 2005-06 season (his first year as an NBA head coach), and they improved to ninth and third respectively by the 2009-10 season (after which the Cavaliers fired him).

In my recap of game two of the 2021 NBA Finals, I discussed at length ESPN's fascination with mythical adjustments:

Many of ESPN's talking heads have been obsessed for years with "in game adjustments" but Jeff Van Gundy is one of the few ESPN commentators who downplays such talk, perhaps because he is the only current ESPN commentator who has actually coached in the NBA Finals. During the 2010 NBA Finals, Van Gundy explained that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." During last night's telecast, Van Gundy made similar points, and after the game he mentioned that NBA games are often decided by one or two key plays, or simply by shots made/missed, and that there are not adjustments that can change those things.

Bill Russell refuted the in game adjustment nonsense years ago, cautioning, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make" and explaining, "When I played, when we had to make adjustments we would adjust not to what we did wrong but we would try to get back to what we did right and do that. That is the only way you can take control of the game," to which I added, "The idea that a coach can come up with something completely new between games--let alone during a 15 minute halftime break--is absurd and that is why San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich gives snarky answers when media members ask him stupid questions about what kind of adjustments he is going to make."

Unfortunately, many NBA commentators do not understand what they are watching, and are incapable of coming up with anything other than declaring that a team lost because that team's coach did not make the right adjustments. Stephen A. Smith repeats this tired refrain after almost every game, not realizing that his nickname is "Screamin' A", not "Strategy A" (though "Strategy F" would be an accurate assessment of what passes for analysis by him).

Perhaps when someone is paid millions of dollars per year to pose as an expert about something for which he does not have anything approaching expert level understanding there is pressure--self-imposed and/or from the bosses who sign those checks--to make bold statements and assertions.

It will be interesting to watch the narratives shift from game to game during this series. 

In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I ranked the Knicks as the Eastern Conference's best team, but in my 2025-26 Playoff Predictions I picked the Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference Finals; I was impressed by Boston's late season performance after Jayson Tatum's return, and I was concerned about the Knicks' inconsistency. The 76ers punished the Celtics for relying too much on three point shooting instead of attacking the immobile Joel Embiid, while the Knicks found their groove in the playoffs, as documented above.

New York will defeat Cleveland in six games.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby

posted by David Friedman @ 12:11 PM

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Donovan Mitchell Dominates as Cavaliers Rout Pistons to Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 26 points, dished for a game-high eight assists, grabbed six rebounds, and did not commit a turnover while leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a 125-94 rout of the Detroit Pistons in Detroit in game seven of the second round. Three other Cavaliers scored at least 20 points each: Jarrett Allen had 23 points and seven rebounds after posting 22 points and 19 rebounds in Cleveland's game seven win versus Toronto in the first round, Sam Merrill added 23 points off of the bench while shooting 5-8 from three point range, and Evan Mobley contributed 21 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. 

The Cavaliers shot 43-85 from the field (.506) while holding the Pistons to 30-85 field goal shooting (.353), and the Cavaliers dominated the Pistons in points in the paint (58-34) and rebounding (50-41). The Cavaliers will travel to New York for the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, with game one tipping off on Tuesday night.  

The Pistons led 3-2 at the 11:14 mark of the first quarter, and then it was all downhill for the home team after that moment. The Cavaliers outscored the Pistons 31-22 in the first quarter, capped off by Mitchell banking in a buzzer beating 38 foot three pointer. The Cavaliers extended the lead to 20 points in the second quarter, enjoyed a 64-47 halftime advantage, and led by double figures the rest of the way, pushing the margin as high as 35 points in the second half. Allen and Merrill paced the Cavaliers with 15 first half points each before Mitchell put the game out of reach by exploding for 15 third quarter points.

After winning just 14 games in 2023-24, the Pistons climbed to 44 wins last season, and then had an East-leading 60 wins this season, establishing themselves as an elite defensive team that relied heavily on Cade Cunningham to score (23.9 ppg in the regular season, 28.1 ppg during the playoffs) and to create scoring opportunities for his teammates (9.9 apg in the regular season, 7.5 apg during the playoffs). In game seven, the Pistons' vaunted defense collapsed under the pressure of Mitchell's drives, Merrill's three point shooting, and dives to the hoop by Allen and Mobley. Cunningham authored the lowest scoring game of his brief playoff career (13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting), tying Duncan Robinson for second on the team behind Daniss Jenkins' 17 points. Cunningham was leading the playoffs in scoring (29.3 ppg) before disappearing in game seven (last night's performance dropped him to second place behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but he also committed a league-worst 79  turnovers in 14 playoff games (5.6 tpg). For the Pistons to make deeper playoff runs, Cunningham must be more efficient offensively but he also needs more help. Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection this season, but he was a non-factor during most of this series, and he mustered just seven points along with nine rebounds in game seven after averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg during the regular season. Duren averaged 10.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg in the playoffs.

You may have noticed a very prominent name that is missing so far in this game recap--and that name is missing because he was missing in action during game seven: James Harden lived up to his deserved reputation for disappearing when his team faces elimination, scoring just nine points on 2-10 field goal shooting. After the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for James Harden, I predicted, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" The Cavaliers have not been eliminated from the 2026 playoffs, but they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals despite Harden, not because of him, and in this game seven James Harden disappeared and James Harden scored just three second half points on 1-6 field goal shooting. If Harden had not been carried by Mitchell, Allen, Mobley, and Merrill then this would have been yet another winnable elimination game that Harden's team lost because Harden's performance fell well short of reasonable expectations. Channeling the late Denny Green, Harden is who I thought he was, but the Pistons let him (and the Cavaliers) off the hook. The best thing that can be said about Harden's game seven performance is that he only had one turnover, but the main reason for that is that the Cavaliers wisely took the ball out of his hands and put the ball into Mitchell's more capable hands. 

It is surprising that neither the Amazon Prime crew nor ESPN's SportsCenter anchors even mentioned in passing that Harden--selected as a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team and acquired by the Cavaliers because he was expected to help the team advance past the second round en route to winning the NBA title--played so poorly in the Cavaliers' most important game of the season thus far. Would Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook have escaped condemnation for a 2-10 game seven shooting performance if their teams had won despite them and not because of them? The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, and speaks volumes about the narratives that dominate media-driven conversations not just about sports but about many topics.

After Harden fled Oklahoma City in 2012 because he did not want to be the Thunder's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, I declared, "Harden is a very good player but all of his weaknesses will be exposed in Houston if the Rockets expect him to be a franchise player. Harden is not an All-NBA First or Second Team caliber player. He is not someone who can draw double teams over the course of an 82 game season and then carry a team deep into the playoffs as the number one option. He is not Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James." Although Harden subsequently accumulated a bunch of regular season honors--including multiple All-NBA selections and even one regular season MVP--my assessment of his inability to lead a team to a championship as the number one option proved to be right on target, and his performances during the 2026 playoffs emphasize that point: the Cavaliers survived game seven versus the Toronto Raptors in the first round even though Harden managed just 18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and then they routed the Pistons in this game seven despite Harden not making a meaningful contribution. You might think, "Who cares as long as the team is winning?"--but the potential problem for the Cavaliers if they don't win two more playoff series this year is that they gave up young All-Star Darius Garland to overpay old All-Star Harden, so if this all-in move does not result in winning a title then the Cavaliers lack the financial flexibility needed to improve the roster. The Cavaliers had the league's highest payroll in 2025-26, topping the Knicks by nearly $6 million. 

Harden's resume in games when his team faced elimination since leaving Oklahoma City includes a 5-13 team record, 21.4 ppg on .385 field goal shooting, and 4.67 tpg. Two of those five wins are with this year's Cavaliers, and Harden's numbers in those two wins are 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) with three turnovers. Harden has become less of a turnover machine in elimination games since 2022, but that can be attributed to him not handling the ball as much in those games.

Don't fall for the hype that Harden used to be a great playoff performer but now his numbers are going down because he is getting older. Harden averaged 29.2 ppg and a league-leading/career-high 11.2 apg in the 2016-17 regular season, but he had just 10 points on 2-11 field goal shooting with six turnovers as his Houston Rockets lost to the San Antonio Spurs 114-75 in game six of the second round. Recently, Sirius XM NBA Radio host Amin Elhassan--who loves to take potshots at all-time greats Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook--defended Harden's playoff career by asserting that Harden is never given credit for having notched 11 40-point games in the postseason. That comment misses the larger point: no one is suggesting that Harden is incapable of playing well in the playoffs or that he has never played well in some playoff games; the problem--irrefutably shown by the numbers cited above--is that when Harden's team needs him most he often disappears and his team loses the vast majority of those games. The fact that two of Harden's five career wins in games when his team faced elimination happened this season with Harden in a secondary (or lower) role behind Mitchell just reinforces the main point that I have been hammering home about Harden for 14 years: Harden is a talented player whose game and mentality are not well-suited for being the number one option on a championship contending team.

Despite Harden disappearing in game seven, the Cavaliers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018, which was LeBron James' last season with the team. This is a significant accomplishment for Mitchell--who has made the playoffs in each of his nine NBA seasons but had never advanced past the second round until now--and for the big man tandem of Mobley (2025 All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year) and Allen (2022 All-Star) as the franchise tries to move out from James' shadow.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

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Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form a reliable 1-2 scoring punch while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen dominate in the paint. The Cavaliers, who have looked soft at times this season, must meet force with force at both ends of the court.

Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring during the regular season (27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .483/.364/.865) and he led the Cavaliers in scoring during their 4-3 first round win over the Toronto Raptors (23.1 ppg with shooting splits of .438/.333/.875). The obvious differences are that both his scoring and his field goal shooting dropped precipitously from the regular season to the playoffs. His regular season scoring and field goal percentage both were just below his career high numbers (28.3 ppg and .484 field goal shooting in 2022-23), but his playoff scoring is on pace to be the second-worst of his nine postseason appearances. After scoring 32 points and 30 points as the Cavaliers won the first two games of the series, Mitchell scored 24 points or less in each of the next five games. Mitchell's playoff career has been filled with highs--including leading the league in playoff scoring in 2020 (36.3 ppg on .529 field goal shooting)--and lows, but his teams are 0-4 in second round series, which dulls the shine of his 27.8 ppg career playoff scoring average (seventh best all-time).

Harden averaged 20.6 ppg and a team-high 6.1 apg versus the Raptors, numbers that are in line with his regular season numbers in the 26 games he played with the Cavaliers (20.5 ppg, 7.7 apg)--but Harden's turnovers jumped from 3.2 tpg in the regular season with Cleveland to 5.1 tpg versus the Raptors. His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's resume prior to 2022 in games when his team faced elimination included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.

After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" Nothing that I saw in the Toronto series made me alter the article template that I prepared for Cleveland's elimination game loss.

The Evan Mobley-Tim Duncan comparisons are delusional, but when Mobley is at his best he is one of the top big men in the league. He ranked third on the team in scoring versus Toronto (18.1 ppg) while leading the team in rebounding (8.6 rpg). Mobley is a very good player, but he is not a dominant player in the way that Duncan controlled the action at both ends of the court.

Charles Barkley often says that Jarrett Allen seems too nice, and the first six games of the Toronto series validated that observation, but Allen showed a little nastiness just in time to save the Cavaliers in game seven with a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots. Allen had a double double in the third quarter alone (14 points, 11 rebounds) as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 38-19. Allen's dominating performance saved the day, and let Harden off the hook despite his typically erratic elimination game field goal shooting.

Detroit will win because...the Pistons are more physical than the Cavaliers and because Cade Cunningham is the best player on either team.

Cavaliers versus Pistons is the NBA's version of a "run and shoot" NFL offense versus a team that plays "ground and pound" offense while knocking you around on defense. During the regular season, the Pistons ranked 28th in three point field goals made but they finished third in field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and third in defensive field goal percentage; during the playoffs, the Pistons rank 16th (last) in three point field goals made per game, but first in points allowed and first in defensive field goal percentage. Granted, the Pistons' playoff defensive numbers are boosted by playing the Orlando Magic, who just fired coach Jamahl Mosley in no small part because of the Magic's historically inept offense, but the Pistons will pose far more challenges for the Cavaliers than the Raptors did.

Cunningham seems poised to be an MVP candidate and All-NBA Team member for years to come after averaging 23.9 ppg and 9.9 apg (second in the league) during the regular season before averaging 32.4 ppg and 7.1 apg as the Pistons defeated the Magic, 4-3. He is taller, bigger, and younger than Mitchell and Harden, and--unlike the Cavaliers' guards--he consistently plays hard on defense in addition to running the Pistons' offense.

Jalen Duren disappeared at times versus Orlando, but he came up big in Detroit's 116-04 game seven win (15 points, game-high 15 rebounds), and he averaged a team-high 9.4 rpg during the series. He is an efficient scorer (.528 field goal percentage versus the Magic) who understands his limitations (he did not attempt a three pointer in the first round). The Pistons need him to be productive versus Mobley and Allen.

Tobias Harris has made a career out of being the third option but in the first round he averaged 21.6 ppg, trailing only Cunningham. He erupted for 30 points in game seven.

Ausar Thompson provides defense, rebounding (8.7 rpg versus the Magic) and efficient scoring (8.1 ppg on .510 field goal shooting versus the Magic), while Duncan Robinson is a three point sniper whose defense is much improved. 

Other things to consider: The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff in 2024 after he led the team to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His replacement Kenny Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to the Eastern Conference's best record (64-18) but the Cavaliers again lost in the second round. Meanwhile, after the Pistons hired Bickerstaff in 2024 their win total jumped from 14 to 44, and Bickerstaff finished second to Atkinson in the Coach of the Year voting. This season, the Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record while the Cavaliers regressed to the fourth seed. This playoff series cannot provide a definitive verdict on Cleveland's decision to replace Bickerstaff with Atkinson, but the overall trendline of the past two seasons seems to favor Detroit over Cleveland.

Speaking of coaching, it must be mentioned that both teams were pushed to seven games by lower seeded first round opponents.

Cunningham is the seventh player to have at least 30 points (team-high 32) and at least 10 assists (game-high 12) in a game seven as he led the Pistons to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit versus the eighth seeded Magic. It is not surprising that the Pistons won the series, but it is baffling that the offensively challenged Magic--who scored less than 100 points in four of the seven games--beat the Pistons three times. 

The Cavaliers jumped out to a 2-0 series lead but then struggled to close out the undermanned Raptors, who finished the series without the services of leading regular season scorer Brandon Ingram (left heel injury suffered in game five) and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (who missed the entire series with a right hamstring strain). In game seven, the Cavaliers trailed 47-38 with 2:58 remaining in the first half before tying the score at 49-49 by halftime. The Cavaliers opened the third quarter with a 9-0 run, and they maintained a double digit lead for the final 16:53 of the game thanks to strong second half performances by Allen (16 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, 14 rebounds) and Mitchell (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) to overcome a typical Harden disappearing act in the second half of an elimination game (eight points on 1-4 field goal shooting). 

Before beating the Magic, the Pistons had not won a playoff series since 2008, while the Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. Playoff experience matters, but when neither team has meaningful collective playoff experience other important factors have added weight. Such factors include which team has the best player, which team is more physical, which team plays better defense, and which team has homecourt advantage. The Pistons have the advantage in all of those categories.

Detroit will defeat Cleveland in six games.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Tobias Harris

posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 PM

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Cavaliers Take a Step Back By Swapping Garland for Harden

Two teams that have both fallen short of expectations decided that swapping former All-Star guards will solve their problems (or at least reduce their problems to a a more manageable size); the Cleveland Cavaliers seemed poised to be championship contenders this season after leading the Eastern Conference with 64 wins last season, while the L.A. Clippers had high hopes after pushing the Denver Nuggets to seven games in the first round of last season's playoffs--but the Cavaliers are clinging to the Eastern Conference's fifth seed while the Clippers started the season 5-16 before getting rid of Chris Paul and are now battling for the Western Conference's 10th seed (and final Play-In Tournament berth).

Cleveland sent Darius Garland and a 2026 second round draft pick to L.A. for James Harden. Harden's signature move is his step back--which was called a travel when the NBA at least loosely enforced the traveling rule and which bears little resemblance to the step back moves perfected by Adrian Dantley, Larry Bird, and Dell Curry--and that is a fitting description of this move for the Cavaliers: a step back.

On paper, Harden looks like the superior player. He has averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.3 apg in his 17 season NBA career. Harden is an 11-time All-Star who has received eight All-NBA Team selections (including six First Team nods). He has finished in the top five in regular season MVP voting six times, including winning the 2018 award. During his seven year NBA career, Garland has averaged 18.8 ppg and 6.7 apg while shooting .453 from the field. He is a two-time All-Star (2022, 2025) who has never made the All-NBA Team or received a regular season MVP vote.

The Cavaliers rank 11th in defensive field goal percentage but just 28th in defensive three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers rank 13th in rebounding, fifth in scoring and eighth in field goal percentage. Last season, the Cavaliers led the NBA in scoring while ranking second in field goal percentage, sixth in rebounding, third in defensive field goal percentage, and 13th in defensive three point field goal percentage. Those numbers--and the eye test--demonstrate that this season the Cavaliers have fallen off in terms of rebounding, overall defense, and perimeter defense while maintaining their status as a top offensive team; thus, the Cavaliers need to add players who are tough, physical, and mobile to bolster their paint presence and their shaky perimeter defense. Harden does not help the Cavaliers in any of their areas of need. He will throw some flashy lob passes to big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but his overdribbling will not help overall offensive continuity and will make it difficult to play him alongside All-Star Donovan Mitchell, the team's primary scorer and ballhandler. Harden is a stout, physical defender when switched on to big men in the paint, but he is an awful perimeter defender whose lackadaisical effort at that end of the court will put a lot of pressure on Mobley and Allen to clean up his mistakes and blown assignments.

Harden is 10 years older than Garland, the largest age gap in an All-Star for All-Star trade in NBA history. The Cavaliers made a win now move with a player who has not won before and is unlikely to be a key contributor to a team focused on winning now. There are two consistent themes throughout Harden's career: 

1) He chases money and individual accolades more than the opportunity for team success; as a result he often becomes unhappy with his current team because he is dissatisfied with his contract, which results in him forcing his way out. In 2012, Harden rejected being the third option for an Oklahoma City squad that had just reached the NBA Finals, so the Thunder dealt him to the Houston Rockets. Harden's Houston career ended in 2021 when he sulked and did not play hard until the Rockets shipped him to his desired destination, Brooklyn. In 2022, Harden complained and whined until Brooklyn traded him to Philadelphia. Harden played just 79 regular season games for the 76ers before he forced his way out of Philadelphia in 2023 to get paid by the L.A. Clippers. Cleveland is Harden's sixth team--and his fourth team in the past five years--and he has played more than three seasons for only one of his previous five teams.

2) He disappears in the playoffs. Harden specializes in the "Harden" (a game in which a player has more turnovers than field goals made) and the "concert tour" (a game in which a player's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates). In 2022, I summarized his horrific elimination game resume, and in the next three years he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025.

It is not logical for the Cavaliers to assume, believe, or hope that acquiring Harden improves their chances of advancing past the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words "James Harden disappeared" and "James Harden scored just xxx second half points."

Harden has been more available and durable than Garland, but that availability and durability do not matter much when Harden disappears in the games that matter the most. The Clippers understand that they are not winning the 2026 NBA championship, and that it will be an uphill battle for them to even win one playoff series, so it is logical for the Clippers to get younger while avoiding dealing with Harden's large contract, moody attitude, and annual playoff collapses. If Garland becomes a dependable second option and playmaker alongside Kawhi Leonard--who has played at an MVP level for the past few weeks--then the Clippers can retool for next year; if Garland cannot get healthy or does not mesh well with Leonard, he is young enough and talented enough that the Clippers can trade him either in exchange for players who fit alongside Leonard or to stockpile draft picks if the Clippers choose to pull the plug on the Leonard era.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:42 AM

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Cleveland Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Cleveland (68-14) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)

Season series: Indiana, 3-1

Indiana can win if…the Pacers' high octane offense overwhelms the Cavaliers, and if the Pacers get enough timely defensive stops. During the regular season, the Pacers ranked third in the NBA in field goal percentage (.488) and seventh in scoring (117.4 ppg) but just 17th in points allowed (115.1 ppg) and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage (.474); in their 4-1 first round victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers maintained their typical offensive production (117.8 ppg, .499 FG%) while holding the Bucks to 110.2 ppg on .453 field goal shooting. 

Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in regular season scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), and he led the Pacers in scoring versus the Bucks as well (19.8 ppg on .556 field goal shooting). Tyrese Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers' offense go, averaging 17.6 ppg and a league-leading 11.6 apg in the first round. Myles Turner averaged just 4.8 rpg in the first round, but he scored 16.8 ppg on .509 field goal shooting while leading the Pacers in blocked shots (2.2 bpg). Andrew Nembhard is a pesky defender (team-high 1.4 spg during the first round) and solid scorer (15.0 ppg on .492 field goal shooting).

The Pacers are not consistently great defensively, but they have some good individual defensive players, so they are capable of getting key defensive stops. 

Cleveland will win because...the Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and have better offensive/defensive balance. Collectively, the Cavaliers have no weaknesses: they led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), third in defensive field goal percentage (.454), sixth in rebounding (45.4 rpg), and 12th in points allowed. 

Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring (24.0 ppg) during the regular season and during Cleveland's first round sweep of the Miami Heat (23.8 ppg; Darius Garland averaged 24.0 ppg but only played in two games)--but the best thing that he did this season went beyond the boxscore: he enthusiastically embraced the notion that for the Cavaliers to reach their potential it is important for Evan Mobley and other players to have larger roles. Mobley scored a career-high 18.5 ppg and he became the first Cavalier to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Darius Garland averaged 20.6 ppg and earned his second All-Star selection, joining Mitchell and Mobley. Jarrett Allen led the NBA in field goal percentage (.706) and he topped the Cavaliers in rebounding (9.7 rpg).

The Cavaliers' point differential (9.5 ppg) not only ranked second in the league this season, but it is on par with the point differentials of all-time great championship teams such as the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1991 Chicago Bulls, and the 1997 Chicago Bulls. There are three reasons that the Cavaliers are not compared to such teams:

1) The Oklahoma City Thunder performed at an even more dominant level this season.

2) The Cavaliers have not validated their regular season productivity by winning a title.

3) All-time great teams almost always have at least one player 6-6 or taller who is a dominant individual performer. The 1986 Celtics had Larry Bird leading a roster stacked with Hall of Famers. The 1991 and 1997 Bulls had Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The Cavaliers' best player is Donovan Mitchell, who is listed at 6-3 but is probably closer to 6-1. Mitchell has never made the All-NBA First Team or finished higher than sixth in MVP voting (though it is possible that he may check off both of those boxes this season). 

The Cavaliers may prove to be an ensemble championship team like Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004--but until the Cavaliers win a title they will not be discussed alongside championship teams even though they have the statistical profile of a dominant championship team.

One important step toward gaining such recognition is beating an Indiana team that is very good, but not great.

Other things to consider: Indiana won the season series between these teams 3-1, but the Pacers at full strength barely beat the Cavaliers 114-112 on April 10 when the Cavaliers rested all of their starters except Jarrett Allen; the Pacers' 126-118 double overtime win on April 13 happened on the last day of the season when both teams rested their starters. With both teams at full strength, the Pacers' offensive firepower may be enough to win a couple games, but over the course of a seven game series the Pacers cannot match the Cavaliers.

Cleveland will defeat Indiana in six games.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 3:56 PM

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Cavaliers Crush Bucks, 135-95

Milwaukee's slogan is "Fear the Deer," but nobody fears these Bucks without Giannis Antekounmpo; the two-time regular season MVP and 2021 NBA Finals MVP missed Milwaukee's game versus Cleveland on Wednesday night because of a right shoulder contusion, and the Cleveland Cavaliers routed the Bucks, 135-95. The Cavaliers are enjoying a six game winning streak, while the Bucks suffered their worst loss of the season and saw their three game winning streak end abruptly. Georges Niang poured in a game-high 33 points on 13-14 field goal shooting. Donovan Mitchell added 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high seven assists (his teammate Isaac Okoro also had seven assists). Jarrett Allen scored 21 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring a game-high 13 rebounds as the Cavaliers outrebounded the Bucks 55-36.

The Cavaliers have the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference mainly because they rank third in the NBA in points allowed and fifth in defensive field goal percentage. Their high scoring output against Milwaukee's poor defense--which became atrocious defense sans Antetokounmpo--is a bit deceptive, because they rank just 21st in the NBA in scoring and 15th in field goal percentage. The Cavaliers look much like they did last year when they rode their defense to the fourth seed in the East before being bullied by the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. No matter how many regular season games the Cavaliers win, there will be justifiable skepticism about them until they prove that they can win a playoff series.

The Bucks have been championship contenders for the past several seasons, but they have only looked like a championship contender sporadically this season even though they have the second best record in the Eastern Conference. Whatever problems the franchise's ownership/executives thought were being caused by Coach Mike Budenholzer and guard Jrue Holiday have not been solved by replacing them with, respectively, Adrian Griffin and Damian Lillard. Griffin had not been a head coach at any level before being given the reins of one of the league's top teams, and his lack of experience has been painfully evident so far this season. Lillard has won the same number of playoff series in his career as the Bucks won during their 2021 championship season (four).

Lillard led the Bucks with 17 points versus the Cavaliers, but he shot just 7-20 from the field. It is obvious that Antetokounmpo's greatness has been covering up a lot of this team's flaws and weaknesses; he leads the squad in scoring (32.0 ppg), rebounding (11.7 rpg), field goal percentage (.608), and steals (1.3 spg).

In their previous game, the Bucks defeated the Sacramento Kings 143-142 in overtime on Sunday night as Antetokounmpo posted a triple double (27 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and Lillard shot just 9-23 from the field but hit a game-winning logo three pointer and finished with 29 points. The Kings led 141-137 with 33.9 seconds remaining in overtime, and Malik Monk could have clinched the win with two free throws at the 18.4 second mark--but Monk missed both, and then Brook Lopez drained a three pointer to trim the margin to one point. After De'Aaron Fox split a pair of free throws with 5.2 seconds remaining, Lillard's long distance heroics delivered the win. Lillard's shot was a highlight moment, but where would the Bucks have been without Antetokounmpo's triple double?

The highlight of the Cavaliers-Bucks game was that Hubie Brown provided color commentary alongside Mark Jones. I am always happy when I get to watch a game that Brown calls, particularly now that he does not do games on a regular basis. As far as I know, Brown's previous game was game one of the 2023 Christmas Day quintupleheader when the New York Knicks defeated the Milwaukee Bucks, 129-122. That game was very similar to this game for Milwaukee: the Knicks jumped out to a 12 point first quarter lead, and maintained control the rest of the way (albeit not by as big a margin as the Cavaliers sustained). 

Before the game, Brown noted that the Cavaliers have feasted on sub-.500 teams. He said that is what they are supposed to do, but the key will be how they perform against the plus-.500 teams down the stretch, particularly because they will have more road games than home games the rest of the way. As the Cavaliers opened the game with a 22-2 run, Brown highlighted the Bucks' awful defense--particularly in transition--and near the end of the first half he offered a blunt assessment of Milwaukee's play: "That's embarrassing." The Cavaliers led 66-41 at halftime after outscoring the Bucks 32-16 in the paint and 22-2 in fastbreak points. Brown said, "Give Cleveland credit, they pitched a perfect half."

In the second half, the Cavaliers led by as many as 47 points as the Bucks' starters offered little resistance before Griffin pulled the plug and emptied his bench. Brown mentioned that in the NBA the next game happens quickly--unlike college or high school--but he said that the Bucks need some introspection regarding this performance: "You have to own up to the lack of professionalism that happened here tonight."

I picked Milwaukee to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Holiday-Lillard trade but despite it. I knew that the Bucks would miss Holiday's defense, leadership, and toughness, but I thought that Antetokounmpo's greatness and the team's overall defense would compensate for Lillard's shortcomings--but even Antetokounmpo can only do so much, and Lillard's negative impact on team defense is being exposed now that he is playing for a team that used to have an elite defense. Lillard's lack of size, effort, and tenacity are difficult to overcome. If anyone still wonders why I considered it fluky that Lillard led Portland to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, just examine Lillard's negative impact on Milwaukee's defense. Lillard can put up big numbers if he is provided with a lot of touches, but his numbers do not lead to consistent team success.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hubie Brown, Jarrett Allen, Milwaukee Bucks

posted by David Friedman @ 11:42 PM

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