Raptors Overcome Valiant Warriors, Win First NBA Title
By the time a playoff series reaches game six, the outcome is determined at least as much by will as by any other factor. The Golden State Warriors displayed tremendous will and grit on many occasions as they reached the NBA Finals five straight times and won three titles--and, in game six of the 2019 NBA Finals, the Toronto Raptors proved that they also have tremendous will and grit. Toronto beat Golden State 114-110 to eliminate the Warriors, close down Oracle Arena and claim the first title in franchise history. Kawhi Leonard was an easy and obvious choice for Finals MVP after averaging 28.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 4.2 apg and 2.0 spg against the two-time defending champions. During the 2019 playoffs, Leonard averaged 30.5 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.9 apg and 1.6 spg with shooting splits of .490/.379/.884.
By the end of the Finals, the Warriors were playing an "anyone but Kawhi" defense, and Leonard found a way to not only still be productive individually but also to open up opportunities for his teammates, who stepped up big time. You might say that Leonard exercised a certain "gravity" over this series; that would be a good way to explain his impact on Golden State's defense, and his ability to create space for his teammates. Leonard's shooting splits in the Finals were .434/.357.906, but greatness is not only about numbers; it is about impact, and Leonard impacted the Finals like the true superstar that he is. As Paul Pierce noted, Leonard is the dynasty killer: he shut down the Miami Heat after the Heat won back to back titles, and now he shut down the Warriors after they won back to back titles. You could crack a joke that no one in San Antonio will laugh at, and say that Leonard shut down the Spurs' dynasty, too; badmouthing Leonard and making Leonard feel unappreciated has not turned out to be the greatest decision of the Popovich era.
One hot take after the Raptors
blew a six point lead with less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter was that the Raptors would not be able to overcome such a wound to their collective psyches--but the only people who think that way are people who do not understand that each NBA playoff game is a distinct entity; emotion rarely carries over from one game to the next, but matchup advantages do carry over. With Kevin Durant sidelined for all but 12 minutes of this series, the Raptors demonstrated throughout this series that they had several matchup advantages that they could exploit, and, not surprisingly, that proved to be the case in game six as well. The Raptors quickly dismissed the notion that there would be any game five hangover in game six. Kyle Lowry scored 15 first quarter points as Toronto opened the game with an 11-2 run and still led 33-32 at the end of the first stanza.
The only way that the Warriors sans Durant could even slow down Leonard a little was to send two defenders at him very aggressively and take their chances that another Raptor would not make them pay--but the Raptors have an All-Star point guard in Lowry, a tough and clutch backup point guard in Fred VanVleet, a former All-Star center in Marc Gasol, a young player who looks like a rising star in Pascal Siakam and other players who are more than capable of making contributions. The "anyone but Kawhi" defense is not going to work against a team that is this talented and this well-coached. In game six, Lowry finished with 26 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds while shooting 9-16 from the field. Siakam added 26 points and 10 rebounds while playing a game-high 46 minutes. VanVleet scored 22 points on 6-14 field goal shooting, including 5-11 from three point range. Gasol missed all five of his field goal attempts and scored just three points but he played good defense while also adding nine rebounds and four assists.
The game was close throughout, and the Warriors led 85-80 when Klay Thompson injured his knee and was not able to return to action the rest of the way. The Warriors were still up 88-86 at the end of the third quarter and they still were ahead with less than five minutes to go in regulation. Stephen Curry, the Warriors' two-time regular season MVP who has yet to win a Finals MVP, scored just four points in the decisive fourth quarter. He missed an open three pointer with eight seconds to go that could have extended the series to a seventh game; Curry is now 0-8 during his playoff career on go-ahead field goal attempts in the final 20 seconds of a playoff game. I am not sure that a statistic like that is particularly meaningful but--for someone who is touted not just as a great player but as potentially a top 10 or top 15 player of all-time--it is significant that he has played in five NBA Finals and never clearly been the best player on the court in any of those series. I cannot think of an all-time great who made that many Finals and always took a back seat to one or more players.
In game six, it could be plausibly argued that Curry was the third most effective point guard: he finished with 21 points on 6-17 field goal shooting while passing for seven assists and committing three turnovers, which does not compare favorably with the numbers posted by Lowry or VanVleet. When a series starts with commentators floating the (ludicrous) notion that the Warriors might be better off without Durant because they have Curry and that series ends with Curry struggling to outplay Lowry and VanVleet, that is not a good line on the "I am a top 15 player of all-time" resume. Curry, like most players of his size, can be worn down over the course of a game, a season or a series. He is a great player, but he is not Kobe Bryant or LeBron James or Kevin Durant--or Kawhi Leonard.
Thompson was Golden State's best player during game six. He finished with 30 points while shooting 8-12 from the field (including 4-6 from three point range) and 10-10 from the free throw line. Former All-Star/former Finals MVP Andre Iguodala added 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting, and Draymond Green had 11 points, 19 rebounds and 13 assists, though he also committed eight turnovers and engaged in multiple outbursts that could have--and should have--resulted in a technical foul that would have triggered an automatic suspension for game seven (if there had been a game seven). One got the sense that these referees were not going to call a technical foul on Green no matter what he did unless he reverted to his former ways of hitting or kicking opponents below the belt. Green knew that he had a license to be a whining, complaining jerk and he took full advantage of it--but at a cost to his team, as several of his extended rants took place at the expense of getting back on defense, which is a problem in an elimination game decided by just four points.
There has been a lot of talk about the injuries that the Warriors suffered during the 2019 playoffs but let's remember that the Warriors' dynasty was built more than a little bit on the bodies of All-Stars who were stricken with injuries and not able to play against Golden State--including Leonard himself in the 2017 Western Conference Finals. The injuries also exposed the reality that the Warriors have an embarrassment of riches. After Kevin Durant went down, the Warriors still had a two-time regular season MVP, four current or former All-Stars (one of whom has won a Finals MVP), a former Lottery pick who comes off of the bench and other talented, if not yet decorated, players. The Warriors' ability to remain competitive is not mysterious or magical or the result of "gravity"; this team is a legitimate championship contender even without its best player, which is why the Warriors were a dynasty during the two playoff runs that their best player dominated.
On a personal level, I feel great sympathy and empathy for Durant (who may miss all of next season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon) and for Thompson (who reportedly suffered a torn ACL). I also respect the way that DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Iguodala and Kevon Looney played through injuries--but, on a team level, I don't feel any more or less sympathy for the Warriors than I did for all of the injury-depleted teams that they beat in the playoffs during the past five years. Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game.
It is also a bit odd that so much is said about the Warriors' injuries but little is made of the obvious fact that Leonard has been hobbled for quite some time and that VanVleet played the last two games of this series minus at least one tooth after an inadvertent Shaun Livingston elbow performed involuntary reconstruction (or deconstruction) of Van Vleet's face. I am sure that other Raptors are banged up as well. Granted, no Raptor suffered an injury as serious as Durant's injury (or Thompson's injury if the early reports about his ACL are accurate), but the Raptors did not talk about injuries, did not make excuses and rarely complained about foul calls. They just hooped, and kept hooping, until the knocked off the champs. Golden State suffered a lot of injuries, and some very serious injuries, but the media coverage would make you think that every other team is blessed with perfect health.
The Raptors are a refreshing champion in an odd time in NBA history. The Raptors have no Lottery picks and they did not tank. Can you imagine if one of the executives who the media often praises to the sky had been running Toronto? The Raptors would most likely not be champions now with a different President/GM. Masai Ujiri cannot be praised enough for how boldly and how shrewdly he put this team together. He figured out that the Raptors were good but not good enough; in the new NBA that often means tearing everything down and tanking but instead Ujiri just added the right pieces, including a big, physical center (Marc Gasol) in an era when small ball supposedly is king. Yes, Ujiri was fortunate that Leonard became available but don't forget how down everyone was on Leonard a year ago; Ujiri ignored the noise coming out of San Antonio about Leonard, and he did not concern himself with whether or not Leonard may re-sign with the team this summer. Ujiri also hired a coach, Nick Nurse, who many people had never heard of but whose career Ujiri had been following for years.
The Raptors are a worthy champion, and I hope that they receive the praise and acclaim that they deserve before the media turns its focus to free agency, the draft, the implications of the Durant and Thompson injuries and whatever other topics media members think are more important than acknowledging greatness.
I don't know what is going to happen in free agency this summer and, frankly, on the night that the NBA title is decided I really don't care. There will be more than enough time to think about that, and to discuss whatever happens. What matters tonight is that Kawhi Leonard led a tough-minded Toronto team to a championship, thereby elevating his place in basketball history and also making sure that this Raptors squad will always be remembered.
Let's hope that all of the injured players make speedy and complete recoveries, and that the 2019-20 NBA season turns out to be a great one.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, Fred VanVleet, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kyle Lowry, Masai Ujiri, Nick Nurse, Pascal Siakam, Stephen Curry, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM
Gritty Golden State Beats Toronto 109-104 in Game Two of the NBA Finals
Winning a championship is not always about things being orderly, aesthetically pleasing and smooth; sometimes, winning a championship is about things being chaotic, grimy and rough--and that was game two in a nutshell for the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors, who survived a 12 point first half deficit to beat the Toronto Raptors 109-104, even the NBA Finals at 1-1, and claim home court advantage as the series shifts from Canada to California for the next two games.
Klay Thompson led Golden State with 25 points on 10-17 field goal shooting despite playing just 32 minutes; he suffered a hamstring injury late in the third quarter and did not play the rest of the game. The injury apparently happened when he did the splits during his follow through on a long jump shot, in an attempt to fool the referees into calling a foul. The referees did not fall for Thompson's stunt, Thompson landed awkwardly and he favored his left hamstring for the next few possessions before asking out of the game. I do not wish injury on any player, but I despise the way so many players try to cheat the game as opposed to just making plays. Thompson is one of the greatest shooters of all-time; he should concentrate on shooting the ball, not trying to trick the referees. If Thompson had done his normal follow through he almost certainly would not have been injured. Let's hope he recovers quickly--and learns his lesson.
Stephen Curry scored 23 points, dished four assists and had just one turnover but he only shot 6-17 from the field, including 3-10 from the three point line. It was odd to listen to ABC's broadcasting crew bend over backwards to make excuses for Curry, claiming early in the game that an undefined "something" was not right with Curry. There is an old quip among chess players about never beating a healthy opponent, and that seems to be the standard that is applied to Curry; if he is beaten, outplayed or anything less than the greatest thing since sliced bread the only possible explanation is that he is injured, sick or possibly near death. I love Curry's game--and I have never heard him make excuses--but the media coverage that he gets is very biased in his favor. Russell Westbrook played in the first round of the playoffs this season with multiple injuries that subsequently required surgery but no allowances were made in his favor while he played, or after he had those surgeries.
Golden State's best all-around player was Draymond Green, who was all over the court as the point of the spear defensively while also contributing 17 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.
DeMarcus Cousins, who Coach Steve Kerr moved into the starting lineup in just his second game back after missing most of the playoffs due to injury, had a significant impact with 11 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Cousins' ability to grab a defensive rebound and then push the ball up the court was a major factor during the game-deciding third quarter run. Cousins' comeback from injury is impressive and his performance puts to shame anyone who suggested that the Warriors do not need him or that putting him in the lineup would cause more harm than good. It should be self-evident that inserting an All-Star caliber center into the lineup is a good thing, but then again there are many so-called experts who are convinced that Golden State is better off without Kevin Durant, so one should not assume that anything is self-evident!
Andre Iguodala has turned into this generation's Robert Horry; his eight points, eight rebounds and six assists do not jump out of the boxscore but he made numerous key plays, culminating in the three point shot that clinched Golden State's victory with seven seconds remaining.
Kawhi Leonard led the Raptors with game-high totals in points (34) and rebounds (14) but he shot just 8-20 from the field and committed five turnovers. Despite the low shooting percentage and high turnovers, Leonard did enough as his team's best player for Toronto to win, but his supporting cast let him down.
While no one could have reasonably expected Pascal Siakam to
match his game one performance of 32 points on 14-17 field goal shooting, the Raptors need more from him than 12 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. Siakam had a very good floor game (eight rebounds, five assists, no turnovers), but a team's second option must shoot better than Siakam did.
Fred VanVleet scored 17 points but his 7-17 field goal shooting--including 2-8 from three point range--is also not quite good enough. Marc Gasol (six points on 2-7 field goal shooting) was awful, and Kyle Lowry (13 points on 4-11 field goal shooting before fouling out) was not much better. Lowry's advocates claim that he does positive things that do not show up in the boxscore but, while that is true to some extent, he does not take enough charges and make enough savvy plays to compensate for his poor shooting, his excessive fouling and his poor decision making--which culminated in collecting his sixth foul on a reach in 90 feet away from the basket he was defending. The fifth Toronto starter, Danny Green, is appearing on milk cartons throughout Canada; if you see him, please let him know that the NBA Finals are taking place now, his team is participating, and any assistance that he can provide would be much appreciated.
During the first quarter, the teams traded body blows. Thompson
scored the Warriors' first nine points as they jumped out to a 9-7 lead
but the Raptors were up 27-26 by the end of that stanza.
Curry
missed his first six shots from the field, but then he made his next four
attempts. The Raptors led 47-35 after Kawhi Leonard converted a three point play with 5:16 remaining in the first half. Up to that point, the Warriors' defense looked shaky, they were shooting less than .400 from the field and it seemed like they were heading into an 0-2 hole--but the Warriors closed the first half by outscoring the Raptors 19-12, including a 9-3 run in the last two minutes. The boxing cliche states that you have to knock out the champion, and the Raptors had just missed a golden opportunity to deliver a knockout punch. The Warriors blitzed the Raptors 18-0 to start the third quarter and never trailed the rest of the way. That 18-0 run is the longest such run in a Finals game since at least the ABA/NBA merger in 1976.
At halftime, Paul Pierce pointed out that for Golden State to win Curry must have the edge against VanVleet but in the first half those two players were basically a wash. There still are at least three games and possibly as many as five games left in this series, but the NBA Finals once again are heading in a direction away from Curry being the MVP. During his previous four Finals appearances, he has rarely been the best player on the court for any extended period of time--unlike Durant, who was dominant in his two Finals appearances with the Warriors, winning the Finals MVP both times--and that is noteworthy considering how much praise Curry receives and how favorably he is compared with some of the greatest players of all-time. While it is probably true that
no Pantheon-level player was the best player in every ABA or NBA Finals in which he played, it must be noted that, other than Oscar Robertson--whose two NBA Finals appearances came late in his career, alongside a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar--every Pantheon-level player was the best player in at least one ABA or NBA Finals. Curry's inability to be the best player on the sport's biggest stage is a factor that must be considered when comparing him to the best of the best; yes, he is a Top 50 player, but talk of him being the best point guard ever and/or one of the top 10 or 15 players of all-time is more than a little premature.
Redirecting our focus from historical context to the game at hand, much attention is given to plays that occur in the final two minutes or so of close games--and those plays may very well be significant--but the outcome of an NBA game is often determined by plays that take place much earlier; if you squander multiple possessions prior to the closing moments, you greatly magnify the likelihood that you will be trailing late in the game, which then puts a lot of pressure on you to be perfect or lucky--or both--in order to prevail. If the Raptors had been less careless with their second quarter lead and/or if they had been more focused at the start of the third quarter, then they would not have had to rely on last second plays to try to survive.
That being said, both teams committed some potentially fatal gaffes in the final moments. With 1:08 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Warriors led 106-98; I don't have one of those "win probability" spreadsheets handy but I would be willing to bet that a team leading by eight points with that amount of time left has a 99% chance of winning. Then, Cousins fouled Leonard on a drive to the hoop--and Curry threw the ball high in the air, drawing an automatic technical foul. Curry's foolish loss of focus could have proven costly--but since the Warriors won and the media loves Curry, do not expect to hear much about that play outside of this recap. Leonard made all three free throws, cutting the margin to 106-101.
Draymond Green then committed a turnover and the Raptors snared two offensive rebounds before Danny Green--he's alive!--made a three pointer with 26.9 seconds left. The Warriors only led 106-104 and with so little differential between shot clock and game clock the Raptors clearly needed to (1) foul quickly to extend the game and (2) avoid fouling Curry. The Raptors whiffed on opportunities to foul Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston before the ball found its way to a wide open Iguodala behind the three point line. Iguodala does many things well on a consistent basis, but outside shooting is not one of those things. The percentage play for the Warriors was to bleed as much clock as possible and then either force the Raptors to foul Curry or else launch a field goal attempt just before the shot clock expired, hoping either for a make or a scramble during which time ran out.
Instead, Iguodala took the shot and drained it with 7.0 seconds remaining. It was a bad, or at least questionable, shot and if he had missed it then the Raptors could have secured the defensive rebound, called timeout, advanced the ball and had a great opportunity to go for the tie or even the win. Iguodala's shot was not a good shot--much like Damian Lillard's long heave that eliminated Oklahoma City was not a good shot--but it was a gutsy, confident shot and by making it he sealed the win. Kudos to Iguodala for making the shot but shame on the Raptors for squandering so many early opportunities that they put themselves in a predicament such that they could be beaten by a bad, low percentage shot.
What have we learned about these teams collectively, and some of these players individually, after two NBA Finals games?
1) It is evident that Golden State is not better without Kevin Durant; the Warriors have transformed from a well-oiled machine to a jalopy that is leaking oil but is still able to barely cross the finish line ahead of everyone else. With Durant, the Warriors are one of the greatest teams of all-time; without Durant, they are a solid championship contender that has to grind out wins against other solid championship contenders (Portland was more pretender than contender, but Toronto is the real deal).
2) Kawhi Leonard is a beast but the amount of support that he receives from game to game varies widely and dictates how successful Toronto will be.
3) Stephen Curry is a great player but he is not a dominant NBA Finals performer in the mold of the Pantheon players.
4) Pascal Siakam may very well be a future All-Star but the Raptors will not win this series unless he plays like an All-Star more often than not for the remainder of this series.
5) We keep hearing that Golden State has no depth, but every time someone on that squad gets hurt the Warriors are able to put a former All-Star and/or former Lottery pick into the rotation. When DeMarcus Cousins is healthy he is a proven 25-10 player but the Warriors are so deep they survived for more than a month without him before pushing the "Break in case of emergency" button and starting him in game two of the Finals.
6) It is foolish to overreact to the vicissitudes of one game. Unless Durant comes back and is healthy enough to be his usual dominant self, these teams are pretty evenly matched and this figures to be a long series. Golden State has the edge in terms of championship experience and mental toughness, while Toronto has the best individual player (Kawhi Leonard). We will still likely see at least one more road win--and many more hot takes--before the 2019 champion is crowned.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Stephen Curry, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 3:08 AM
Iggy Does It: Andre Iguodala Wins Finals MVP as Golden State Claims First Title Since 1975
Usually, a player whose man nearly averages a triple double in the NBA Finals does not win the Finals MVP but the 2015 NBA Finals were unusual in many respects. Andre Iguodala, a 2012 All-Star who did not start a single regular season game for the 67-15 Golden State Warriors, won the 2015 NBA Finals MVP after Golden State defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 105-97 in game six to clinch a 4-2 series victory. Iguodala finished with 25 points (tied with Stephen Curry for team-high honors), five rebounds and five assists. Iguodala averaged 16.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg and 4.0 apg for the series and he was the primary defender on LeBron James, who stuffed the box score en route to suffering his fourth defeat in six trips to the NBA Finals.
Iguodala's career arc is interesting and it illustrates what it takes to become an NBA champion. He is good enough to start for just about every team in the NBA. He is good enough to start for the Warriors, for that matter--but Iguodala understood that the Warriors would function best if he came off of the bench and he embraced that role, an unselfish and wise decision in a league where many players would rather be the number one option and never win a championship than sacrifice some of their statistics and glory in favor of the greater good. Manu Ginobili made a decision similar to Iguodala's and was rewarded with four championships. On the other hand, Stephon Marbury could have played his whole career alongside Kevin Garnett but Marbury did not want to be the second option--and, more recently, James Harden could have continued to be the sixth man for a powerful Oklahoma City team but he chose to seek more money and more glory. No one would expect LeBron James or Kevin Durant to take a back seat to anyone but if you are not one of the very best players in the NBA and you want to win a championship then it makes sense to put the team's needs before your desire to receive individual accolades.
Iguodala's Finals MVP award will surely generate some controversy. Curry, the 2015 regular season MVP, put up MVP caliber numbers in the Finals as well, leading the Warriors with 26.0 ppg while averaging 6.2 apg and 5.2 rpg. He poured in 37 points--including 17 in the fourth quarter--to lead Golden State to a 104-91 victory in game five but neither that signature moment nor his overall productivity were enough to move the media voters off of the small-ball storyline that gathered steam after Golden State Coach Steve Kerr benched starting center Andrew Bogut for game four and moved Iguodala into the starting five. Going small helped the Warriors open up the court and increase the tempo but the most important effect is that Kerr's move prompted Cleveland Coach David Blatt to counter with his own move: limiting starting center Timofey Mozgov to just nine minutes in game five after Mozgov had 28 points in game four. The Cavaliers were underdogs no matter what Blatt did but the rash decision to bench Mozgov hurt the team's chances to pull off the upset; when Cleveland took a 2-1 series lead, the Cavaliers' main weapons were LeBron James doing everything and Mozgov controlling the paint at both ends of the court. Playing Mozgov for 40 minutes per game the rest of the way in the Finals may not have been a winning strategy for Cleveland but limiting Mozgov's minutes in order to give playing time to James Jones and Mike Miller was definitely a losing strategy.
Klay Thompson, the other half of Golden State's All-Star backcourt duo known as the "Splash Brothers," had a quiet game six (5 points on 2-7 field goal shooting) but Draymond Green picked up the slack with 16 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
LeBron James put up monster numbers in the series and probably received serious consideration for Finals MVP honors even in defeat. He averaged 35.8 ppg, 13.3 rpg and 8.8 apg and he had two triple doubles but he also shot just .398 from the field and .687 from the free throw line. James is the first player in NBA Finals history to lead both teams in total points, total rebounds and total assists--but pro basketball history aficionados know that in the
1976 ABA Finals, Julius Erving led both teams in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots as his New York Nets defeated the star-studded Denver Nuggets to win the league's final championship. Erving shot .590 from the field while averaging 42.8 mpg during that series and no one--least of all Erving--spoke about Erving being fatigued. Ever since the infamous
"Decision" fiasco, James has usually said the right things to the media but he may have taken a step back in the 2015 Finals as in one breath he called himself the "best player in the world" but he also complainied about being fatigued. Most basketball observers understand that James is indeed the best player but if James is going to make bold public declarations about himself then he opens himself up to questions such as "If you are the best player, why are you so much more tired than the other great players who are logging heavy minutes in this series and the other great players who logged heavy minutes in previous NBA Finals?" Games five and six were winnable for the Cavaliers down the stretch if he had been more productive in the fourth quarter.
J.R. Smith scored 19 points in 34 minutes in game six but many of those buckets came late in the fourth quarter when the Cavaliers cut the Golden State lead to four before the Warriors closed out the series by making some free throws.
Turnovers killed Cleveland in game six as much as anything else. The Cavaliers committed 16 turnovers that led to 25 Golden State points, wiping out Cleveland's huge advantages in rebounding (56-39) and free throws attempted (39-29).
How would this series have been different if Cleveland's injured stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love had been available? That question cannot be answered with certainty but Cleveland's management has some very interesting personnel decisions to make soon and those decisions will be based in no small part on their expectations for Irving and Love moving forward.
Today, though, the story is about Golden State. Steve Kerr took over an improving, good team and helped transform it into a great, championship team. Along the way, Stephen Curry emerged as an elite player, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green carved out nice complementary niches, former All-Stars Andre Iguodala and David Lee sublimated their egos to come off of the bench and Shaun Livingston's comeback from a devastating knee injury culminated in his becoming a solid contributor on the league's best team.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Timofey Mozgov
posted by David Friedman @ 3:00 AM
Warriors Demonstrate Folly of Trying to Play Small Ball Against Them, Take 3-2 Finals Lead Over Cavaliers
Stephen Curry scored 37 points--including 17 in the fourth quarter--as his Golden State Warriors defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 104-91 to take a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals. Curry shot 13-23 from the field, including 7-13 from three point range. He also had seven rebounds and four assists. Curry is one of five players to score 17 points in
the fourth quarter of an NBA Finals game in the past 40 years, a list that includes Shaquille O’Neal (2000 Lakers), Dwyane Wade (2006 Heat), Russell Westbrook (2012 Thunder) and Kevin Durant (2012 Thunder).
LeBron James had another huge game for the Cavaliers, compiling 40 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists with just two turnovers in 45 minutes. James shot 15-34 from the field, including 1-4 in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter after the Cavaliers had trimmed the Warriors' lead to 85-84.
The big story--literally and figuratively--is Cleveland's starting center Timofey Mozgov, who played a scoreless nine minutes after scoring 28 points in game four and helping to keep the Cavaliers close with his inside presence at both ends of the court. Cleveland Coach David Blatt pulled Mozgov from game five after just five minutes with Golden State leading 8-2; Blatt did not give Mozgov a chance to go to work against Golden State's undersized lineup, a markedly different approach to coaching and matchups from the one that Golden State Coach Steve Kerr took in game four when he stuck with his small lineup despite trailing 7-0 early in the first quarter.
Any player--but particularly a big man whose size and length can wear down opponents over the course of a game--would struggle to find his rhythm if he is used to playing regular minutes but then is suddenly relegated to just four or five minutes per half.
Mozgov averaged 16.8 ppg on .550 field goal shooting plus 8.3 rpg in the first four games of the series, yet after Blatt benched Mozgov early in game five he did not put Mozgov back in the game until late in the third quarter. The Cavaliers cut a 71-67 Golden State lead to 78-77 during Mozgov's cameo second half appearance and then were outscored 26-14 the rest of the way after Blatt yanked Mozgov again. Essentially, Blatt iced his second best player and failed to exploit the only matchup advantage that the Cavaliers have other than James versus whoever tries to guard him one on one.
The minutes that Mozgov would have and should have played went to a combination of perimeter players J.R.
Smith (14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting in 36 minutes), James Jones
(0 points in 18 minutes) and Mike Miller (3 points in 14 minutes).
The bottom line is that Kerr has outcoached Blatt. Yes, Kerr has more cards to play but Blatt has the biggest card (LeBron James) plus the edge inside with Mozgov but Blatt has not taken full advantage of those trumps. On offense, the Cavaliers should be running a steady diet of James-Mozgov screen/roll plays, forcing the Warriors to either trap James and leave Mozgov open at the rim or else single cover James and pray for salvation. On defense, the idea that Mozgov could not guard any of the Warriors is wrong; Mozgov should be assigned to stand two feet away from Andre Iguodala, who is struggling to make uncontested and wide open 15 foot shots (Iguodala shot 2-11 from the free throw line in game five). The Cavaliers could then pack the paint, stay close to Golden State's three point shooters and dare Iguodala to beat them with two point jump shots. If that strategy sounds familiar that is because it is the strategy that Kerr used to beat Memphis in the playoffs, assigning Bogut to guard Tony Allen--and by "guard" I mean give Allen the space to shoot open jumpers to his heart's content. Iguodala is a very good all-around player but the Warriors are not going to win a championship with Iguodala shooting 15-18 foot jumpers while James and/or Mozgov are getting dunks and free throws.
What did Kerr think of Blatt's quick hook of Mozgov? Here is what Kerr said after game five: "I thought from the very beginning when they went small, had their
shooters out there, I thought this is Steph's night. This
is going to be a big one for him because he has all that room. He took
over the game down the stretch and was fantastic." Translation: "If I had known that all I had to do was bench Bogut and Blatt would respond by taking out his second best player then I would have done it in game one and this series would have been over in four games. I will match our five best perimeter players against Cleveland's five best perimeter players any day of the week. Cleveland then has one matchup advantage with LeBron James but we have four matchup advantages and we do not have to worry about foul trouble or our guys getting worn down by banging around in the paint against a true big man."
While Golden State is deeper on paper than Cleveland, it is interesting to look at who is actually seeing action in this series. In game five, three Golden State starters played at least 40 minutes and seven Golden State players played at least 17 minutes; three Cleveland starters played at least 40 minutes and seven Cleveland players played at least 18 minutes. For all of the talk about fatigue and depth, the reality is that both teams are using seven man rotations. Yes, LeBron James is carrying a heavy individual workload but that is at least partially because Blatt refuses to take advantage of his second best weapon. Is James really more tired than Michael Jordan was in 1998 at the end of the Bulls' second three-peat or than Kobe Bryant was in 2010 after battling Boston's historically good defense for seven games or than most other great players were when they fought to win championships against worthy opposition? James is putting up great numbers but he is also consistently fading down the stretch while being offered (and accepting) a fatigue excuse that is rarely if ever granted to any other person who has held the greatest player in the world title.
Let's stop pretending that the Cavaliers are nothing more than LeBron James and a bunch of guys he rounded up at the YMCA. Timofey Mozgov is the best big man on either roster. Tristan Thompson is the leading rebounder in the series (and James is second). Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are credible perimeter defenders. J.R. Smith is a talented, if erratic, player. The main difference in this series since Cleveland took a 2-1 lead is that Kerr convinced Blatt to bench Mozgov in exchange for Kerr benching Bogut, who is averaging 2.5 ppg in the Finals.
Maybe the Cavaliers would have lost game four even if Mozgov had played 35 or 40 minutes. Maybe the Cavaliers would have lost game five even if Mozgov had played more than nine minutes. However, it is a near certainty that if Blatt insists using some combination of Smith, Miller and Jones to match up with Golden State's skilled perimeter players while Mozgov languishes on the bench then Cleveland will lose every time.
As bizarre as this may sound, Cleveland could still win this series
if Blatt makes the right moves and if James figures out how to play as
hard and well in the final five minutes as he does the rest of the game. A Cleveland victory is by no means probable but it sure would be interesting to see what would happen if Blatt came up with a strategy other than expecting James to play point guard and center the rest of the way while Mozgov watches the action. Magic Johnson won his first NBA championship while doing the point guard/center routine in one game of the 1980 NBA Finals due to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's ankle injury--and Johnson's Lakers already enjoyed a 3-2 lead over Philadelphia, while James' Cavaliers trail 3-2. No one expected Johnson to do that for an entire Finals.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Cleveland Cavaliers, David Blatt, Golden State Warriors, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Steve Kerr, Timofey Mozgov
posted by David Friedman @ 3:36 AM
Warriors Regain Homecourt Advantage with 103-82 Game Four Win
Golden State defeated Cleveland 103-82 to tie the NBA Finals at 2-2 and regain homecourt advantage. Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala led Golden State with 22 points apiece. Timofey Mozgov scored a game-high 28 points for Cleveland while pulling down 10 rebounds. LeBron James finished with 20 points on 7-22 field goal shooting plus 12 rebounds and eight assists.
This game is yet another reminder of how quickly things can turn in a seven game series and how foolish it is to make too much of just one game. Prior to game four, everyone was talking about the Cavaliers being on the verge of pulling off a huge upset as James authored possibly the greatest performance in NBA Finals history. Then in game four the Cavaliers suffered the fourth worst home loss in Finals history. The same people who were writing off Golden State after game three will probably write off Cleveland after game four. The reality is that, except for an occasional mismatch, most NBA Finals are seesaw affairs in which each game is both its own individual story and also one chapter in a larger story that cannot be completely understood until after the fact. It could very well be that the most important moment of the 2015 NBA Finals has not happened yet--or it may have already happened and we do not realize it because we do not know the final outcome.
Most of the analysis of game four will probably focus on Golden State Coach Steve Kerr's decision to go small by inserting Andre Iguodala in the starting lineup over Andrew Bogut. Iguodala, a former All-Star, had started every game of his career prior to this season but had yet to start a single game for Kerr's Warriors. Kerr's move had such an immediate impact that Golden State promptly fell behind 7-0. You can bet that this part of the story will be left out or glossed over in most accounts of the game.
Kerr's decision to go small did not spark the Warriors--but what happened shortly after the game started did. To understand that part of the story we need to look at the plus/minus numbers from this game. Every Cleveland player who played significant minutes had a plus/minus number of -12 or worse except for Mozgov (-5). Kerr went small for two reasons: to accelerate the pace of the game (which favors the Warriors because they are deeper and because their perimeter players are better than Cleveland's) and to entice the Cavaliers to take the bait and also go small--and Blatt fell for the banana in the tailpipe, giving J.R. Smith 28 minutes even though Smith was a one man disaster area. Smith's plus/minus number of -27 (12 points worse than any other player who
appeared in the game) only hints at how poorly he played and how
negative his impact was. Smith shot 2-12 from the field (including 0-8
from three point range) and finished with as many fouls as points
(four).
The Warriors made a 10-4 run to take a 22-20 lead after J.R. Smith replaced Matthew Dellavedova in Cleveland's lineup. Matters really went south for Cleveland after Blatt took out Mozgov at that point to go small with James Jones; Golden State pushed the lead to 31-24 before Blatt put Mozgov back in the game.
There is a natural tendency to focus on the fourth quarter in general and the final minutes/final plays in particular but students of the NBA understand that games are often decided early, even if there are subsequent runs by both teams. Cleveland made a late run in game four but the Cavaliers could not overcome the double digit lead that Golden State built by halftime. Golden State did a lot of damage in the first half with Mozgov on the bench; the Cavs played too fast during that stretch and Smith was awful. Instead of going small, Blatt should have stayed true to his team's strength and exploited his team's advantage inside.
When the Cavaliers went small they also started to play faster and they started firing up three pointers. Cleveland shot 4-27 from three point range. The problem is not just the number of misses or even the number of attempts but rather the quality and nature of the shots. Cleveland won games two and three by pounding the ball inside with James posting or driving, Mozgov cutting through the lane and Tristan Thompson pounding the offensive boards. Most of the Cavaliers' three pointers in those games came as a result of penetration and good ball movement. In game four, James did not attack as much, the Cavaliers settled for low percentage three pointers and the Cavaliers paid the price for Blatt's substitution patterns.
I understand that Blatt has limited options due to injuries but in order for Cleveland to win this series Mozgov's minutes need to go up, Smith's minutes need to go down and James cannot sit out the first two minutes of the fourth quarter because every time that happens Golden State goes on a run; this almost cost Cleveland in game three and it thwarted a potential Cleveland comeback in game four.
James may have to play 42 or 43 minutes per game the rest of the way, including all 12 in the final stanza. That work load is not the cruel and unusual punishment that the media portrays it to be. In the 1993 Finals, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen--en route to winning their third straight championship--averaged 45.7 mpg and 44.3 mpg. In the 1996 Finals, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen--en route to completing their second three-peat--each averaged more than 41 mpg (and Gary Payton averaged almost 46 mpg for Seattle in a losing cause that year). Superstar players should not only expect heavy minutes in the Finals but they should demand heavy minutes.
Hall of Famer Jerry West, a consultant for the Warriors,
has said that in the NBA when you don't have talent coaching can only do so much but when you do have talent coaching is everything. While it is true that Golden State has more talent and more depth than Cleveland, for all intents and purposes both teams are using a seven man rotation now and both teams are talented or they would not be in the Finals; in game four, seven Cleveland players played at least 18 minutes (and three players received three garbage time minutes apiece) and seven Golden State players played at least 15 minutes (and five other players received between one and seven minutes, with four of those players playing three minutes or less). Kerr may have more chess pieces to move around the board than Blatt does but Blatt has the ultimate chess piece (James) and he has a chess piece who is a matchup nightmare for Golden State (Mozgov) so within the options that Blatt has he needs to make the best possible choices to maximize the damage done by his two best pieces.
In addition to Kerr outcoaching Blatt (or Blatt outcoaching himself), the other big factor in game four is that LeBron James was not nearly as aggressive as he had been in the first three games of the series when he averaged 41 ppg. James scored 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting in the first half and if he had reached his normal level of production in this series then Cleveland would not have trailed by 12 at halftime. Yes, that is a lot to ask of one player but when James is aggressive he not only creates scoring opportunities for himself but he also creates scoring opportunities for his teammates.
James suffered a large gash late in the first half when he hit his head on a courtside camera lens after receiving a hard foul from Andrew Bogut. It is unclear how much that injury affected James but he had been passive and the Cavaliers had been trailing even before that happened.
As a longtime advocate for the ABA, I cannot neglect to mention that even though James' 123 points through the first three games of the Finals is an NBA record it is not a pro basketball record; in the
1976 ABA Finals, Julius Erving scored 124 points in the first three games as his underdog New York Nets took a 2-1 lead over the powerful Denver Nuggets. James now has 143 points after four games but Erving scored 158 points in the first four games in the 1976 ABA Finals and for the series he led both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg) as the Nets won 4-2 over a squad that featured two Hall of Famers (David Thompson and Dan Issel) plus the best defensive forward in pro basketball (Bobby Jones) and a Hall of Fame coach (Larry Brown). Erving shot .590 from the field against the Nuggets. Considering the quality of the opponent, the all-around statistical dominance and the efficiency, a good case can be made that this is the greatest single series performance in pro basketball history. Just keep that historical perspective in mind when placing James' numbers in proper context. James has played great overall in the first four games but basketball history did not begin with Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan and basketball history includes (or should include) the ABA, though you might not realize this if you depend on the mainstream media outlets for basketball commentary.
OK, enough with the historical interlude for now. What will happen next in the 2015 NBA Finals? The only honest answer is, "I don't know." What I do know is that Golden State has the better team but Cleveland has the best player. Cleveland is capable of winning by employing the right strategy and playing really hard but Golden State has a larger margin for error. If Cleveland wins this series it would clearly be an upset but I am not sure it would be the biggest upset ever, as some people have suggested; let's wait and see if Cleveland prevails before trying to figure out how big of an upset it would be.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Cleveland Cavaliers, David Blatt, Golden State Warriors, Julius Erving, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Steve Kerr, Timofey Mozgov
posted by David Friedman @ 3:14 AM
2012 Team USA Report Card
After the 2008 Olympics, I wrote a Team USA report card using the following methodology:
Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation...It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules...
The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.I applied the same methodology when issuing these grades for Team USA's 2012 squad. Overall Olympic statistics for all 12 players are listed in parentheses after each player's name, while the three game elimination round statistics are provided right before the grades for each of the top six players in the rotation. Each player appeared in all eight Olympic games except for Anthony Davis, who did not play in
Team USA's 99-94 win over Lithuania.
Kevin Durant (26.0 mpg, 19.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 13 steals, five blocked shots)
Durant led the Olympics in total points scored by one point (156-155) over Argentina's Manu Ginobili and he broke Spencer Haywood's 44 year old Team USA record for most points scored in a single Olympics; Durant finished second in scoring average to Australia's Patrick Mills, who poured in 21.2 ppg in his six games. Durant shot a blistering .523 from three point range but he only shot .417 (15-26) on two pointers; this is a reversal of his MVP performance in the 2010 FIBA World Championship, when he shot a still excellent .456 from three point range while shooting .632 (48-76) on two pointers. In the Olympics, Durant filled the role of designated long distance sniper, assassinating opposing teams as punishment for packing their defenders in the paint. Durant also played a very solid floor game, ranking second on the team in rebounding, second in steals and fourth in assists.
Elimination round statistics: 21.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, .7 apg, .444 overall FG%, .438 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Chris Paul (25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.1 apg, 20 steals, zero blocked shots)
Paul led the Olympics in steals and ranked third in assists (second on the team behind LeBron James); as those numbers suggest, he did an excellent job both distributing the ball on offense and pressuring the ball on defense. This team did not need or expect him to score the way that he does in the NBA but, as usual, Paul was very efficient when he shot the ball (.510 field goal percentage, including .464 from three point range).
Elimination round statistics: 9.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, .500 overall FG%, .455 3FG%
Grade: "A"
LeBron James (25.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 11 steals, two blocked shots)
James was the consensus MVP of the Olympics, filling up all boxscore categories and proving to be a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court at all five positions; he played center in Team USA's deadliest lineup, a "small" unit featuring Durant at power forward alongside Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and either Deron Williams or Carmelo Anthony. James shot .603 from the field, doing most of his damage in the paint; he shot just 6-20 (.300) from three point range. James led Team USA in assists while ranking third in scoring, rebounding and steals; his elimination round statistics--which include
the first triple double by a Team USA player in Olympic competition--are even more impressive.
Elimination round statistics: 16.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 7.7 apg, .594 FG%, .250 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Deron Williams (18.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 4.6 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)
Williams inexplicably struggled with his two point shot (10-27, .370) but he shot 13-32 (.406) on three pointers, had an even better assist/turnover ratio than Chris Paul and he averaged more minutes than any other bench player. Williams padded some of his numbers during a few of Team USA's blowout wins and he only played 10 minutes in the gold medal game.
Elimination round statistics: 10.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, .348 FG%, .438 3FG%
Grade: "B-"
Carmelo Anthony (17.8 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, four steals, zero blocked shots)
Anthony bounced back to some extent from a subpar 2008 Olympics--when he shot just .422 from the field--but his numbers are tremendously skewed by
his Team USA record 37 point shooting exhibition against an overmatched Nigeria team; in the other seven games, Anthony averaged 13.3 ppg while shooting .471 from the field and .382 from three point range--a solid performance but far short of the 21.2 ppg on .613 field goal shooting (including .578 from three point range) that Anthony produced during the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship when some people asserted that Anthony is a perfect fit as a stretch four in FIBA play. Anthony is a shoot first player--in both NBA and FIBA competition--who can rebound when he is so inclined but is indifferent at best defensively. When he shot well he provided instant offense but it is noteworthy that when the score was close he was often on the bench; he scored just eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting versus Spain in the gold medal game as Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul did the heavy lifting.
Elimination round statistics: 14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .457 FG%, .381 3FG%
Grade: "B-"
Kobe Bryant (17.5 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, nine steals, zero blocked shots)
Bryant struggled with his two point shot (13-31, .419) but he connected at a .436 clip from three point range and he led the team in free throw shooting (.909, 10th in the Olympics and third among players who attempted at least 20 free throws). Other than his two point field goal percentage, Bryant did everything the coaching staff wanted and expected for him to do; Bryant ranked fourth on the team in scoring and steals, he still pressured the ball on defense, he still delivered points against top opposition when necessary and he was almost always on the court whenever the score was close late in the game. Bryant ranked second on the team in scoring during the elimination round games, including a team-high 20 points in the quarterfinal victory over Australia. Coach Krzyzewski drastically limited Bryant's minutes in blowouts, so Bryant did not have the opportunity to pad his numbers the way that some of his teammates did but Bryant performed very well in the elimination round and he finished his undefeated Team USA career (26-0 in three FIBA events, not including exhibition play during which Team USA was also undefeated with Bryant on the roster) with 17 points on 5-10 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. Bryant was clearly the lead dog on Team USA from when he joined the team in 2007 until very recently but he adjusted well to James' ascension as the best overall player on the team.
Elimination round statistics: 16.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, .471 FG%, .522 3FG%
Grade: "A"
Kevin Love (17.0 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, .4 apg, two steals, two blocked shots)
Love's role significantly increased since 2010, when he only averaged 8.8 mpg in the FIBA World Championship. He carved out a nice niche for himself as a rebounder off of the bench, tying Pau Gasol for the overall tournament lead with 61 rebounds and pacing Team USA with a 7.6 rpg average. Love did not start a game but he had a bigger impact on the team than starting center Tyson Chandler. Love will likely never be as valuable or productive in FIBA play as he is in the NBA because he is not a mobile FIBA big man in the Pau Gasol/Luis Scola mold and he obviously does not possess the athletic gifts of Team USA FIBA big men LeBron James and Kevin Durant; Love earned his minutes by playing very hard and by relentlessly pursuing the ball.
Grade: "A"
Russell Westbrook (13.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, seven steals, zero blocked shots)
Westbrook had a much smaller role in the 2012 Olympics than he had in the 2010 FIBA World Championship when he ranked third on the team in scoring, assists and steals--but that is not a reflection on Westbrook as much as it is a reflection on just how deep and talented this squad was: the addition of James, Bryant and Paul--key members of the 2008 Olympic team who did not play for the 2010 FIBA World Championship team--understandably moved Westbrook further back in the rotation. Westbrook's main contribution during his limited minutes was to apply pressure defense against opposing point guards.
Grade: "B"
Andre Iguodala (12.1 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, five steals, five blocked shots)
Like Westbrook, Iguodala's role was vastly reduced compared to 2010; Iguodala started every game in the FIBA World Championship but that obviously was not going to happen with James and Bryant on the roster. Iguodala accumulated most of his numbers during garbage time but he was very effective whenever he played.
Grade: "A"
Tyson Chandler (11.3 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .4 apg, three steals, four blocked shots)
Chandler's performance, though not quite as bad as his 2010 FIBA World Championship outing (when he not only lost the starting center role but eventually dropped completely out of the rotation), was mediocre at best. He rebounded adequately on a per minute basis but was not effective enough offensively or defensively to deserve significant playing time; he started every game and then promptly went to the bench either because he got into early foul trouble or just because Coach Krzyzewski preferred to use a better, more versatile player. In 2010, Chandler tied for fourth on the team in fouls committed despite only averaging 8.6 mpg and this time around he took advantage of slightly more playing time to raise his ranking to a tie for third in fouls committed. The ideal FIBA big man for Team USA--other than LeBron James and Kevin Durant--is Chris Bosh because of his mobility and versatility or Dwight Howard, who has a freakish combination of size, speed and agility; injuries prevented Bosh and Howard from playing, so Chandler inherited the center spot by default.
Grade: "C-"
James Harden (9.1 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .6 rpg, .8 apg, four steals, one blocked shot)
Harden had an excellent regular season, a very good playoffs and a forgettable NBA Finals but--short of injuries or foul trouble--there was no way that he was going to get into the rotation on this team. I gave Danny Granger an "I" for "incomplete" in my 2010 FIBA World Championship report card and Harden essentially filled the same garbage time role for this team.
Grade: "I"
Anthony Davis (7.6 mpg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, zero assists, one steal, three blocked shots)
Davis, who could very well have a prominent role in the future for Team USA, served as the human victory cigar in the 2012 Olympics but this was a valuable experience for him that could yield dividends for both his NBA and FIBA careers.
Grade: "I"
Final Thoughts:
During the five game
pre-Olympic exhibition tour, Coach Krzyzewski tinkered with his rotation but he used the same starting lineup throughout the Olympics: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler.
The original, one and only Dream Team faced no serious competition in 1992--but just eight years later Team USA only beat Lithuania 85-83 in the Olympic semifinal round and only led France 76-72 with 4:26 left in the gold medal game before winning 85-75. Team USA failed to win the gold medal in the next three major FIBA events (2002 FIBA World Championship, 2004 Olympics, 2006 FIBA World Championship) before Jerry Colangelo got the program back on track; the additions of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd upgraded the backcourt defensively and provided the right championship mindset for the team. Coach Krzyzewski did not know the games of all of Greece's players nor could he figure out how to contain Greece's screen/roll actions in Team USA's
101-95 loss in the 2006 FIBA World Championship but that has turned out to be the only blemish in his FIBA coaching career. Team USA cannot just show up with any coach and any 12 players and expect to win FIBA events but Colangelo has put together a program that should be able to sustain success even as new players (and possibly a new coach) are brought on board in the future.
The conclusion from my 2010 Team USA report card is still valid and relevant today:
"While I enjoyed watching this team play, it is hilarious to read/listen to much of the mainstream commentary about FIBA play in general and Team USA in particular; we are consistently told that in order to win in FIBA events you have to have big men and you have to have shooters, despite the fact that both of these contentions have repeatedly been refuted: Team USA's winning recipe consists of stingy defense--particularly versus screen/roll plays and versus opposing three point shooters--forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Team USA's halfcourt offense will never be as smooth or sophisticated as the halfcourt offenses of the other elite FIBA teams, true back to the basket big men are not as valuable as versatile, mobile forwards who can face the basket offensively and guard multiple positions defensively and the ability to hit three point shots is not nearly as important as the ability to defend against opposing three point shooters; reread the preceding sentence and you will understand why Michael Redd and Carlos Boozer hardly played for the 2008 version of Team USA and why Stephen Curry and Tyson Chandler reprised those players' respective roles on the 2010 version of Team USA--but I have no doubt that prior to the 2012 Olympics we will once again hear "experts" declaring how important it is for Team USA to add shooting specialists and big men to the roster."
****************
Further Reading2008 Team USA Olympics Report CardKevin Durant Leads the Way as Team USA Wins FIBA World Championship for First Time Since 1994Labels: Andre Iguodala, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:46 PM
Team USA Sleepwalks Early Before Routing Tunisia
Team USA defeated Tunisia 110-63 to become the only team with a 2-0 record in Group A but the final margin somewhat obscures how sloppily Team USA played for most of the first half, particularly their starting five. Team USA's bench players provided a huge energy burst and eventually blew the game open with a 25-3 run to begin the third quarter as Team USA's five starters watched from the bench. Individual and team statistics are inevitably somewhat deceptive during any game that features a significant amount of garbage time--and at least 15 of the 40 minutes of this contest largely consisted of Team USA players padding their stats with lob dunks and wide open three pointers--but, for the record, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Love led Team USA with 16 points apiece. Anthony shot 6-6 from the field, while Love shot 6-9 from the field. Kevin Durant, the most productive starter, added 13 points and a team-high 10 rebounds. Anthony Davis scored 12 points, 10 of them coming on dunks. Russell Westbrook scored 11 points and swiped two steals. LeBron James only had five points, four assists and two rebounds in 19 minutes, while Kobe Bryant scored four points and committed three fouls in a team-low nine minutes. Starting point guard Chris Paul played a team-high 25 minutes and only scored two points, though he did have a game-high seven assists. Macram Ben Romdhane led Tunisia in scoring (22 points), rebounds (11) and assists (4) in a game-high 36 minutes. Mohamed Hadidane scored 11 points--and the pronunciation of his last name brings to mind the classic Doug E. Fresh track "La Di Da Di," which I am sure that Kenny Smith would have pointed out if this game had been telecast on TNT. Marouan Kechrid drilled three first half three pointers, providing flashbacks of the little known guards who caused nightmares in
Team USA's FIBA losses in the early/mid 2000s, but he did not score in the second half.
Tunisia is the only one of the 12 Olympic teams that does not have at least one player with NBA experience but they led Team USA 15-12 at the 2:39 mark of the first quarter; Coach Mike Krzyzewski took the unusual step of replacing all five starters at the same time, bringing in Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams. After the game, Coach Krzyzewski denied that there was any particular significance to the mass substitution, saying that he simply wanted to experiment with different lineups during this game, but even if that is the case he could not have been very happy with how Team USA played during the first seven minutes versus Tunisia. Team USA's starters shot 0-6 from the three point line and--more importantly--they not only gave up several wide open three pointers but they also twice allowed Tunisian players to drive coast to coast for layups, which is simply inexcusable considering Team USA's huge advantage in athleticism. Team USA's reserves immediately went on a 14-0 run spanning the end of the first quarter--Team USA led 21-15 after the first 10 minutes--and the early moments of the second quarter. The starters lacked defensive intensity and awareness but the reserves forced two shot clock violations with their relentless pressure against Tunisia's ballhandlers.
Team USA's starters gradually returned to action early in the second quarter but they still looked sluggish and Team USA only led 33-25 when Kobe Bryant picked up his third foul at the 5:26 mark. Bryant went to the bench at that point and did not play for the rest of the game; I think that Coach Krzyzewski is wisely saving his oldest--and most decorated--player for games against the tougher teams, particularly in the medal round. Team USA built a 46-33 halftime lead. Tunisia shot 7-16 (.438) from three point range in the first half, including a missed desperation heave just before the halftime buzzer. Team USA shot just 2-12 (.167) from long distance in the first half but the problem was not so much the shooting percentage as the kind of shots that Team USA took; NBC's Doug Collins repeatedly emphasized that Team USA should never take a bad or contested shot because if they patiently swing the ball then they should be able to get a wide open shot. Far too many of Team USA's first half shots were rushed, contested attempts.
At halftime, Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers--serving as an NBC basketball analyst during the Olympics--made an interesting point: bench players will almost always perform well in games that they expect that their team is going to easily win because they know beforehand that they will receive a lot of playing time. It should also be noted that it is human nature for the starters to be a bit lackadaisical in such situations--but it is still disappointing that the starting unit, led by the NBA's three best players (LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant), played so listlessly and inattentively. One might assume that Coach Krzyzewski read the team--or at least the starters--the riot act at halftime but, according to Bryant, that was not the case at all. After the game, someone asked Bryant about how Coach Krzyzewski reacted during halftime and Bryant replied, "He was fine. He was good. The point that I wanted to make is that we needed to adjust and that we needed to stop switching so much. In the first half we switched a lot and I think because of it our defense was a little softer and gave them a lot more space. In the second half we came out and put bodies on bodies and put a lot of pressure on them."
Before the third quarter began, NBC's Craig Sager mentioned that the coaching staff informed him that Team USA would fight through picks instead of switching; this proved to be very effective, limiting Tunisia to 2-10 three point shooting (.200) in the second half. The same reserve unit that played so well in the latter part of the first quarter and throughout the second quarter started the third quarter for Team USA. That group scored the first nine points of the quarter and was largely responsible for the 25-3 run that turned the game into a rout.
Glancing at the final boxscore without watching the game could give one an inaccurate picture of why the game was relatively close at halftime and why Team USA pulled away in the second half. Tunisia finished with a .346 three point percentage (9-26) while Team USA shot .400 (10-25) from behind the arc but this was very much a tale of two halves and a tale of Team USA defensive pressure/Team USA shot selection. In the first half, Team USA played far too softly on defense, enabling Tunisia to shoot uncontested three point shots; Team USA compounded that mistake by jacking up three pointers early in the shot clock instead of driving to the hoop, collapsing the defense and then either passing for a dunk or kicking the ball to a wide open shooter. Things completely changed in the second half: Team USA pressured Tunisia all over the court and did not give up many open shots, while on offense Team USA played with much more patience and discipline, only shooting three pointers in rhythm after good ball movement. Those distinctions can get lost in the shuffle if someone only examines the game statistically as opposed to actually watching the game analytically and that is why I have consistently
criticized the "stat gurus" who assert that it is not necessary--or even beneficial--to watch a game because the numbers tell the whole story. The numbers provide an outline but the complete story can only be written by someone who knows and understands the plot, someone who actually watched the story unfold.
Labels: 2012 Olympics, 2012 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tunisia
posted by David Friedman @ 10:48 PM
Team USA's 12 Man Roster is Officially Announced
Injuries and the aging process prevented USA Basketball from completely putting the 2008 band back together but the 2012 version of Team USA that will compete in the London Olympics includes a strong mixture of five Olympic veterans and five FIBA World Championship veterans plus two young talents who will provide athleticism and scoring punch. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams played on
the 2008 gold medal-winning U.S. Olympic team, while Kevin Durant, Tyson Chandler, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala and Kevin Love
won gold medals for Team USA during the 2010 FIBA World Championship. Blake Griffin and James Harden are the newcomers who will provide firepower off of the bench.
James and Anthony will join David Robinson (1988, 1992, 1996) as the only men to play three times for Team USA in the Olympics. Bryant, Paul and Williams will add their names to the somewhat longer but still quite distinguished list of two-time U.S. Olympic basketball players: Charles Barkley (1992, 1996), Carlos Boozer (2004, 2008), Patrick Ewing (1984, 1992), Burdette Haldorson (1956, 1960), William Hougland (1952, 1956), Michael Jordan (1984, 1992), Jason Kidd (2000, 2008) Robert Kurland (1948, 1952), Karl Malone (1992, 1996), Chris Mullin (1984, 1992), Gary Payton (1996, 2000), Scottie Pippen (1992, 1996), Mitch Richmond (1988, 1996) and John Stockton (1992, 1996).
The 39 year old Kidd, who owns a 46-0 record as a member of two Olympic gold medalists and three FIBA Americas Championship squads (1999, 2003, 2007), previously announced his retirement from international play (and likely would not have been selected for this year's roster in any case); injuries prevented 2008 Olympians Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and 2010 FIBA World Championship veteran Derrick Rose from participating this time.
It will be very interesting to see how Coach Mike Krzyzewski distributes starting honors and--more importantly--minutes. Durant, the three-time reigning NBA scoring champion and 2010 FIBA World Championship MVP, may not even start for this team; James, Bryant and Paul are almost certainly locks to start, Chandler is the only true center on the roster and Anthony--
despite his poor shooting and inconsistent play--started all eight games for the 2008 squad (though he often ended up on the bench during crunch time). Chandler played so poorly in the 2010 FIBA World Championship that he not only failed to hold on to the starting center job but
he eventually fell out of the rotation completely, averaging just 8.6 mpg during the event, so perhaps that will influence Coach Krzyzewski to go "small" from the outset with James at center, Anthony at power forward, Durant at small forward and Bryant and Paul in the backcourt. It is certainly possible that Coach Krzyzewski will experiment a bit with his starting lineup and his overall rotation during Team USA's exhibition games/pre-Olympic tour. Love indicated that Coach Krzyzewski plans to use him almost exclusively at center.
FIBA basketball has different rules, a different playing/officiating style and a different rhythm from NBA basketball, so some players who look great in NBA play may be plagued by foul trouble and/or just generally seem out of sorts during FIBA competition. Love has emerged as a great NBA player but he was a non-factor--other than in garbage time--during the 2010 FIBA World Championship and Griffin is a good candidate to lead this squad in fouls per minute due to his aggressive style combined with FIBA's eccentric officiating. Harden seemed to lose his game and his confidence during the 2012 NBA Finals, so it will be interesting to see if the changes of venue and rules bring him back to life or if he stays in his slump.
Team USA will obviously rely on quickness and athleticism and if Team USA has the proper "attention to detail" (as Bryant put it shortly after the announcement of the final roster) then they should be able to overwhelm most of the teams that they will face; Team USA's main weakness--a lack of size, specifically a dearth of true back to the basket centers--could be exploited by teams that do not turn the ball over, keep the pace of the game slow and pound the ball inside to skilled big men.
Despite what countless "experts" will proclaim, the deciding factor for Team USA will not be lack of size or how well Team USA shoots from behind the arc; Team USA has several players who play and rebound "bigger" than their size and Team USA should be able to score so well in transition that three point shooting will not be a huge part of their offensive repertoire. The key for Team USA to win in FIBA events is to play suffocating defense and shut down the opposing team's three point shooters without getting broken down for layups in the screen/roll game. In the 2008 Olympics, Team USA held opposing teams to .403 field goal shooting and .299 three point field goal shooting. Those are the two most important statistical categories to monitor as Team USA chases gold in London.
Labels: 2012 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM
Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#4 Boston (39-27) vs. #8 Philadelphia (35-31)
Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1
Philadelphia can win if…the 76ers are able to limit their turnovers, force Boston to turn the ball over and then score in transition.
Boston will win because…the
Celtics have three future Hall of Famers plus a top notch point guard who is probably their most valuable player now; the Celtics simply have too much talent and too much championship level experience to lose to an inexperienced team that lacks a true superstar and struggles to score in a half court set. Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams lead a nice cast of solid Philadelphia players but with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo the Celtics can use multiple options/looks both offensively and defensively.
Other things to consider: Derrick Rose's injury cleared the way for the 76ers to upset the Chicago Bulls in the first round but even with Rose--and then Joakim Noah--sidelined by injury Philadelphia hardly won convincingly. Doug Collins is an excellent coach who has squeezed the most out of his team but it is not realistic to think that the 76ers can defeat the Celtics in a seven game series unless the Celtics suffer a rash of injuries.
This series could feature some very ugly, low scoring games, particularly if the Celtics do not turn the ball over and thus force Philadelphia to execute against an entrenched defense; the 76ers have tremendous difficulty generating points in their half court offense, so they could easily sputter their way to some 10 point quarters and/or 30 point halves against Boston.
The Celtics do not look like a championship caliber team but if they defeat Philadelphia, win one road game in the Eastern Conference Finals and defend their home court in that series versus Miami or Indiana then the "Big Three plus Rondo" could make one last trip to the NBA Finals.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Lou Williams, Paul Pierce, Philadelphia 76ers, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 6:42 AM
All-Star Reserves Headlined by Championship-Winning Veterans and Five Newcomers
The 2012 NBA All-Star Game will include an interesting mixture of the old and the new. On Thursday the league announced the seven All-Star reserve players for each conference. Finals MVPs Dirk Nowitzki (2011) and Paul Pierce (2008) are All-Stars for the 11th and 10th times respectively and Steve Nash is just the fourth player to earn All-Star recognition at age 38 or older, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. At the other end of the age/experience spectrum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert and Andre Iguodala each will be making their first trips to the midseason extravaganza.
The NBA head coaches select the All-Star reserves, voting only for players in their own conference and not being permitted to choose players from their own teams. The coaches ultimately selected 12 of the 14 players
who I picked, differing only by giving Paul Pierce the nod over his teammate Rajon Rondo and taking Dirk Nowitzki instead of Danilo Gallinari (for what it's worth, my choices mirrored those of the coaches more so than the selections made by any of TNT's analysts). Even in a normal season, the All-Stars are chosen based on less than half a season's worth of work and in this lockout-shortened season the sample size is even smaller both in absolute and relative terms (i.e., the fans selected the All-Star starters based on fewer than 20 games played out of a 66 game schedule, while the coaches picked the reserves based on approximately 25 games played).
Chris Bosh is well deserving of his seventh All-Star selection; he has made the All-Star team more often than any other East reserve except for Pierce and more often than every East starter except for his Miami teammates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade (eight times each). Pau Gasol--who is posting the lowest scoring average of his career--is routinely called the "most skilled" power forward in the NBA, yet Bosh is every bit as skilled as Gasol and he has earned All-Star nods both as the number one option in Toronto and as part of an All-Star trio in Miami. At least one "stat guru" has already lost his mind complaining about Luol Deng's selection but the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the East (22-6), including an 18-3 mark when Deng starts. Deng's individual numbers are not gaudy but he contributes significantly at both ends of the court. Roy Hibbert was the obvious choice for backup center among the slim pickings at that position. Joe Johnson has quietly earned his sixth All-Star selection, one more than celebrated guards such as Pete Maravich or Reggie Miller achieved during their careers. Andre Iguodala is not having the best statistical season of his career but his all-around contributions have played a vitally important role in Philadelphia's success. Paul Pierce started the season slowly but he has played very well during Boston's recent surge; I would have taken Rajon Rondo but Pierce is not a terrible choice: based on his track record and how he is playing now he could very well be an All-NBA player once again by the end of the season. We know that Deron Williams is not one of Kenny Smith's proverbial "looters in a riot" because we have seen Williams put up big numbers for playoff teams in Utah; that said, the struggles of Williams' New Jersey Nets and Carmelo Anthony's New York Knicks show that the grass is not always greener on the other side for star players who talk their way out of town.
There would have had to be an investigation if LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love did not make the All-Star team. Marc Gasol has played very well and has shown that his success is not dependent on playing alongside Zach Randolph; despite all of the talk about how skilled Marc's brother is, not enough people recognize that Marc may be the "most skilled" center in the league: Dwight Howard is clearly the best and most dominant center--by far--but Marc Gasol can shoot, post up, pass, rebound and defend. Steve Nash has much less talent around him than he did in previous years but his individual numbers are comparable to the ones he posted during his MVP seasons; he did not really deserve either of those MVPs--Shaquille O'Neal should have won in 2005 and Kobe Bryant should have won in 2006--but Nash does deserve to be a 2012 All-Star and his productivity at an advanced age is truly remarkable. Tony Parker has been the best player on a San Antonio Spurs team that has surprised most people (I
picked them to finish third in the West). Russell Westbrook, despite all of the nitpicking about various aspects of his game, is one of the top 10 players in the league. Dirk Nowitzki nabbed the spot that I would have given to Danilo Gallinari. I am not sure about the timing of the voting so I don't know if Gallinari's injury--and likely unavailability for the All-Star Game--hurt his cause. I have mixed feelings about the Nowitzki selection; it is obvious that based on the first 20 or so games of the season Nowitzki should not have been chosen but it is also obvious that last June he
outplayed Miami's All-Star trio when the stakes were the highest and it is a safe bet that by the end of the season Nowitzki will once again merit inclusion on the All-NBA team. Guys like Danilo Gallinari and Rudy Gay clearly are not better players than Dirk Nowitzki and if you really look at the numbers they have only marginally outperformed Nowitzki thus far so I can understand why the coaches gave Nowitzki the benefit of the doubt; this is a tough break for some West forwards who have yet to make the team but it should inspire those guys to play even better the rest of the way and then carry that momentum into the playoffs and next season so that the voters--fans and/or coaches--simply cannot leave them off of the team next time.
Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett--former champions and regular season MVPs who have earned 13 and 14 All-Star selections respectively--both failed to make the cut and neither is likely to be chosen even if it becomes necessary to replace players due to injury. They are both still solid contributors on good teams--Duncan's San Antonio Spurs currently have the second best record in the West, while Garnett's Boston Celtics have bounced back from a slow start to currently rank seventh in the East--but neither is performing at an All-Star level this season.
Labels: Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Luol Deng, Marc Gasol, NBA All-Star Game, Roy Hibbert, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 5:09 AM
Kevin Durant Leads the Way as Team USA Wins FIBA World Championship for First Time Since 1994
FIBA World Championship MVP Kevin Durant capped off a spectacular tournament with a game-high 28 points plus five rebounds to carry Team USA to an 81-64 gold medal game victory over Turkey. Durant set Team USA FIBA World Championship records for points in a tournament (205) and scoring average (22.8 ppg) while shooting .556 from the field (including .456 from three point range) and .912 from the free throw line. In Team USA's 89-74 semifinal win versus Lithuania, Durant set a Team USA single game FIBA World Championship record with 38 points. The seemingly effortless way that Durant scored at will throughout this event was remarkable to watch and was reminiscent of how Brazilian legend Oskar Schmidt poured in points in FIBA play during his prime years.
I concluded my
FIBA World Championship preview article with this statement:
Team USA can win the gold medal if they play smart and tenacious defense, force turnovers and score a lot of points in transition--but even if this team plays the best basketball that they are capable of playing they will probably have at least one or two close games; it should not surprise anyone if Team USA fails to win the FIBA World Championship.
Team USA followed the above prescription en route to posting a 9-0 record in the tournament but--as I expected--they had to survive a couple close games: they slipped by Brazil 70-68 in the third game of the preliminary round after the Brazilians missed a potentially tying shot at the buzzer and they trailed as late as midway through the second quarter in the quarterfinal game versus Russia before prevailing 89-79.
Team USA's defensive execution was inconsistent during the early part of the tournament but they used their depth, their athleticism and Durant's scoring punch to get victories. They hit their collective stride defensively in the elimination portion of the event but even at that stage I think that depth was an underrated factor in their success; while Durant was far and away the best player on Team USA, the other main players in the rotation were largely interchangeable (at least in terms of their overall impact in a FIBA setting): opposing teams could often hang with Team USA in the early going but when both teams went to their benches Team USA experienced little or no drop off while the opposing teams became significantly less effective.
After the 2008 Olympics, I
authored a report card containing grades for each of Team USA's players. Here is how I explained my methodology:
Players are listed in order of minutes played because that statistic provides a hint about Coach Mike Krzyzewski's evaluation...It should go without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that it is not meaningful to compare a player's numbers in 40 minute games played under FIBA rules with his numbers in 48 minute games played under NBA rules...
The grades listed below represent how well a particular player filled his respective role on the team; obviously, some players had bigger roles than others, so a bench player's "B" does not mean the same thing as a starter's "B." Production when games were close is given a heavier weight than production that took place after the victories were already well in hand.
Using those same standards, here are my grades for the 2010 version of Team USA:
Kevin Durant (28.2 mpg, 22.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.8 apg, 13 steals, six blocked shots)
Durant led Team USA in scoring, three point field goal percentage and free throw percentage, he ranked second in both rebounding and steals and he tied for second in blocked shots. No opposing player had the right combination of foot speed and length to be able to guard him effectively; the only method that has a chance versus Durant is to play him very physically (a la Ron Artest in the first round of the 2010 NBA playoffs) and it is surprising that Team USA's opponents did not try that approach more consistently: frankly, while it is true that Durant made some very impressive one on one moves, it is stunning how often Team USA's opponents left Durant open for face up jumpers--particularly since Eric Gordon was the only other regular member of the rotation who was consistently making jump shots.
Grade: "A"
Chauncey Billups (23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 11 steals, zero blocked shots)
"Mr. Big Shot" looked like "Mr. Brick Shot" for much of this event: his .391 overall field goal percentage was the worst on the team and he fired up the second most three point attempts despite shooting just .318 (seventh on the team) from long range--and FIBA's "long range" (20 feet, six inches) is actually a midrange NBA jumper. As an All-Star and former NBA Finals MVP, Billups was supposed to be a stabilizing force for his younger, less experienced teammates but instead he seemed to be channeling the shot selection of his NBA teammate J.R. Smith; Billups attempted more than twice as many three pointers as two pointers, a ratio only approximated by Eric Gordon--but Gordon was this team's version of Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson off of the bench (particularly against weaker opponents), while Billups was misfiring from all angles regardless of how closely he was being guarded or how much time remained on the shot clock. Billups scored 19 points on 5-7 three point field goal shooting versus overmatched Angola but he had just four points and missed all five of his field goal attempts in the gold medal game versus Turkey. In the semifinal game versus Lithuania, Billups scored three points on 1-5 three point field goal shooting. Billups scored 15 points on 4-8 three point field goal shooting in the quarterfinal game versus Russia. One out of three may get you into the Baseball Hall of Fame but one good game out of three in the final stanza of this event when you are supposed to be one of the team's leaders is hardly impressive.
Billups ranked second on the team in scoring and assists, he had the best assist/turnover ratio among the team's primary ballhandlers and he played solid defense against bigger, slower opponents (though he struggled versus quick guards); those are the reasons that he started every game and played relatively heavy minutes but he was not nearly as efficient as he should have been as a scorer.
Grade: "B-/C+"
Derrick Rose (23.1 mpg, 7.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 10 steals, three blocked shots)
Rose led the team in assists but after playing very well in the first four games of the preliminary round he slumped in the next four games, culminating in a scoreless performance versus Lithuania during which he played just 12 minutes and was benched for the entire fourth quarter. He struggled to make outside shots and could not find his way to the hoop as consistently or as effectively as Russell Westbrook did.
Grade: "C-"
Lamar Odom (22.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, .4 apg, five steals, six blocked shots)
As I predicted in my preview article, Odom led Team USA in rebounding. Despite all of the talk about Odom's versatility, the reality is that the one skill set area in which he is significantly above average is rebounding. He is an erratic shooter (and therefore an inconsistent scorer) and his ballhandling decisions are at times questionable (leading to offensive fouls or other turnovers) but there is no doubt that he is a very good rebounder and he did yeoman's work for Team USA despite playing out of position as the starting center. One of Odom's best contributions to Team USA is that he attempted just four three pointers, making three of them; he is not a great outside shooter, so he showed good judgment with his shot selection.
ESPN's Fran Fraschilla heaped praise on Odom throughout the tournament, particularly during the final two games. There is no question that Odom played very well versus Lithuania (13 points, 10 rebounds) and Turkey (15 points, 11 rebounds); in those games he not only did excellent work on the boards but he emerged as the second scoring option behind Durant, connecting on drives, putbacks and cuts to the hoop. However, his 28 points in those two games nearly matches his scoring output in the first six games (36 points). Odom only had four total assists, though it must be noted that he made some outstanding outlet passes that fueled fastbreak scoring opportunities.
Odom is an excellent complementary player because he understands and accepts his role, something that proved to be as true when he played for Team USA as it is when he plays for the Lakers.
Grade: "B+"
Russell Westbrook (19.4 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 12 steals, four blocked shots)
Westbrook ranked third on the team in scoring, assists and steals despite not starting a single game. There were extended stretches when he was Team USA's most effective guard. In contrast to Billups, Westbrook did not pad his stats against Angola but he scored in double figures in each of the final three games, though his two point field goal percentage versus Russia and Turkey was not great. Westbrook drew Fraschilla's ire sometimes for missing dunks or attempting flashy plays but overall he had a very positive impact off of the bench, providing a change of pace (literally and figuratively) that opposing teams could not match.
Grade: "B+"
Andre Iguodala (18.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 apg, 16 steals, zero blocked shots)
Iguodala started every game at small forward and he emerged as the team's designated defensive stopper on the perimeter. Like Odom, he wisely limited his three point attempts (seven, making just two of them) and he pretty much restricted his shot attempts to dunks and layups. He led the team in steals and ranked fourth in rebounding. Iguodala is used to dominating the ball as an NBA player but he adjusted very well to being a complementary player for Team USA.
Grade: "B+"
Eric Gordon (17.6 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, .6 apg, eight steals, two blocked shots)
Gordon's main role on this team was to hit open jumpers, particularly from three point range, and he did an excellent job, ranking fourth on the team in scoring, second in three pointers made and second in three point shooting percentage despite not starting a game and ranking just seventh in minutes played. However, Gordon did most of his damage versus Tunisia (21 points) and Angola (17 points) while making very minimal contributions in the final three games, scoring six, three and zero points against Russia, Lithuania and Turkey respectively. He did what he was asked to do but his lack of production versus the top teams in the most important games lowers his grade.
Grade: "B-"
Rudy Gay (13.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, .8 apg, nine steals, eight blocked shots)
Gay is the kind of athletic, versatile forward who is perfectly suited for FIBA play and that is why in my preview I suggested that he could be an X factor for Team USA. He started out strongly with double figure scoring efforts in the first two preliminary round games but he did not score in double figures again except for the Angola game. Minutes were a bit hard to come by for him at times because he could not match Durant's scoring or Odom's rebounding.
Grade: "B-"
Stephen Curry (10.6 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, four steals, zero blocked shots)
I love watching Stephen Curry play and his father
Dell Curry is one of my favorite non-superstar NBA players of all time--but it was quite predictable that Stephen Curry would have a small role for Team USA. As I have repeatedly stated in my articles about FIBA play, contrary to popular belief it is not necessary or desirable to stock Team USA's roster with players whose primary and/or exclusive skill is three point shooting; the FIBA three point shot is a midrange NBA shot anyway and it is much more important for Team USA's perimeter players to be able to defend and to be able to handle the ball against pressure than it is for them to be able to hit spot up shots.
Curry almost got whiplash a few times as he watched quicker guards drive around him and on other occasions he had some trouble defending screen/roll sets, either ending up out of position or switching on to a bigger player and getting abused in the post.
Again, I love watching Stephen Curry and I think that he has a great NBA future but Coach Krzyzewski's substitution patterns tell you all you need to know about Curry's role on this team: Curry played double figure minutes in the first game versus Croatia and in the blowout wins versus Iran, Tunisia and Angola but he did not play at all in the nailbiter versus Brazil and he logged just five, two and seven minutes respectively versus Russia, Lithuania and Turkey.
When the "experts" say that Team USA needs shooting specialists but Coach Krzyzewski wins gold medals while deadeye shooters like Michael Redd (in 2008) and Curry ride the bench except for garbage time are you going to believe the "experts" or are you going to believe Coach Krzyzewski?
Grade: "B-"
Kevin Love (8.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .8 apg, three steals, one blocked shot)
Fraschilla repeatedly raved about Love but I never quite understood the fuss; before the tournament I predicted that Love would "put up impressive per minute statistics during garbage time" and that is exactly what he did. Although I was not correct that he would be the team's 12th man (he logged 11 more total minutes than Granger and played two more total minutes than Chandler), Love--like Curry--saw very little action against the top teams: Love played just five minutes versus Brazil, three minutes versus Russia, eight minutes versus Lithuania and one minute versus Turkey.
I like Love as an NBA player and I think that he will be a better pro than many people originally predicted but the prototypical FIBA big man is lithe and mobile (Chris Bosh, Kevin Durant, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay), two words that do not accurately describe Love.
I am sure that "stat gurus" everywhere are salivating over Love's per minute numbers and wondering why he did not play 30 mpg but I'll trust my own eyes and Coach Krzyzewski's judgment over "advanced statistics" that are the product of Love's garbage time production against inferior opponents.
Grade: "A" (again, keep in mind that the grade is based on production relative to one's role, so this does not mean that I am equating Love with Durant)
Danny Granger (9.7 mpg, 4.1 ppg, .9 rpg, 1.0 apg, one steal, one blocked shot)
As I expected, Granger did not crack the regular rotation and most of his minutes came in garbage time--in two of the nine games he did not play at all. I don't see how to fairly give him any grade other than "incomplete."
Grade: "I"
Tyson Chandler (8.6 mpg, 2.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, .4 apg, two steals, five blocked shots)
Chandler was probably the most disappointing player on the team. Despite being the only true center on the roster he not only failed to hold on to the starting center spot but he dropped out of the main rotation entirely as Coach Mike Krzyzewski elected to go predominantly with a "small" lineup--a strategic decision that I predicted in my preview article, though I still thought that Chandler would be part of the regular rotation.
Despite his limited minutes, Chandler tied for fourth on the team in fouls committed. He failed to provide much of a presence defensively or on the glass and, as usual, his offensive repertoire was largely restricted to point blank shots.
Grade: "D"
Final thoughts:
I analyze NBA games from an objective perspective, not as a partisan fan, but as an American I am happy that Jerry Colangelo, Coach Krzyzewski and a dedicated corps of players (the 2008 Olympians plus the current members of Team USA) have helped USA Basketball earn respect not only by winning gold medals but by doing things the right way on and off the court. Basketball was invented in America, so it was embarrassing to go a decade and a half without winning the sport's world championship, but the exemplary way that this team conducted itself en route to the gold medal wipes out the horrible memories of the desultory performances of previous editions of Team USA (with the nadir being the sixth place finish in the 2002 FIBA World Championship held in Indianapolis, Indiana).
While I enjoyed watching this team play, it is hilarious to read/listen to much of the mainstream commentary about FIBA play in general and Team USA in particular; we are consistently told that in order to win in FIBA events you have to have big men and you have to have shooters, despite the fact that both of these contentions have repeatedly been refuted: Team USA's winning recipe consists of stingy defense--particularly versus screen/roll plays and versus opposing three point shooters--forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Team USA's halfcourt offense will never be as smooth or sophisticated as the halfcourt offenses of the other elite FIBA teams, true back to the basket big men are not as valuable as versatile, mobile forwards who can face the basket offensively and guard multiple positions defensively and the ability to hit three point shots is not nearly as important as the ability to defend against opposing three point shooters; reread the preceding sentence and you will understand why Michael Redd and Carlos Boozer hardly played for the 2008 version of Team USA and why Stephen Curry and Tyson Chandler reprised those players' respective roles on the 2010 version of Team USA--but I have no doubt that prior to the 2012 Olympics we will once again hear "experts" declaring how important it is for Team USA to add shooting specialists and big men to the roster.
Labels: 2010 Team USA, Andre Iguodala, Chauncey Billups, Danny Granger, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Tyson Chandler
posted by David Friedman @ 4:26 AM
