Garnett Carries Celtics as James Struggles
On a night when the other three All-Stars on the court combined to shoot 4-36 from the field, Kevin Garnett shot 13-22, scored 28 points and grabbed eight rebounds as his Boston Celtics escaped with a 76-72 game one victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. If this game were a building, it would have been condemned and torn down; if this game could have looked into a mirror, the glass would have shattered into a million pieces. This game was U-G-L-Y--unless you are a big fan of missed shots (the teams combined to brick, airball and otherwise misdirect 91 out of 143 field goal attempts) and turnovers (38). Rajon Rondo played a solid game, scoring 15 points (all in the first half) and adding six assists and five rebounds. Paul Pierce had five rebounds and four assists but he just shot 2-14 from the field, finishing with a playoff career-low four points; to his credit, he played good defense against LeBron James, drawing two second half charges and making things difficult for Cleveland's star. Ray Allen went scoreless for the first time since his rookie season, shooting 0-4 from the field and looking passive--if not downright invisible--for most of the game. Allen entered the game with a career playoff scoring average of 23.5 ppg, so his performance is simply bizarre. Boston Coach Doc Rivers said that the Celtics have to do a better job of providing open looks for Allen. Sam Cassell picked up the slack for Allen and Pierce, scoring 13 points on 4-8 shooting in 18 minutes of action.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas led Cleveland with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Wally Szczerbiak scored 13 points but shot just 5-14 from the field, which was about par for the course on a night when the Cavs shot 23-75 (.307) from the field. Other than the final score, the numbers that will most be remembered from this game belong to LeBron James, who became just the third player to have two field goals or less in a playoff game in the same season that he won the scoring title (Bob Pettit and David Robinson are the other two). James finished with 12 points on 2-18 field goal shooting, the worst shooting performance of his career, playoff or regular season. He had nine rebounds and a game-high nine assists but he committed 10 turnovers, tying his playoff career-high and matching the second worst total in playoff history. Several factors explain how such a talented player can shoot so poorly and commit so many turnovers:
1) The Celtics employed essentially the same defense that the San Antonio Spurs used against Cleveland in the 2007 NBA Finals: they built a wall around the paint by trapping James aggressively after every pick and roll that involved him and they sent waves of defenders in his direction any time that he tried to drive to the hoop. The idea is to force James to pass the ball or shoot long jump shots. In order for this to work, the defensive team has to have active, mobile big guys in the paint plus three perimeter defenders who understand the proper rotations and are committed to executing them. Few teams have the mental discipline and the right personnel to play this way for 48 minutes--the Spurs and the Celtics might be the only teams that can do this. It is important to understand that even the Spurs and Celtics don't play defense like this all game, every game during the 82 game regular season, because the schedule makes that mentally and physically impossible (plus, it is not necessary against most teams). James has had good regular season games against the Spurs and against the Celtics but in the playoffs teams can zero in on a player's weaknesses.
2) James is the second best player in the NBA behind only Kobe Bryant but James is an erratic free throw shooter and a below average midrange and long range shooter. He made his free throws (8-10) in this game but he shot 0-6 from three point range and he missed several midrange jumpers. James' only two made baskets were a layup at the very beginning of the game and a layup midway through the fourth quarter. Although the kind of defense that the Celtics played would make Bryant work for his points, Bryant's ability to make midrange and long range shots makes it unlikely that he would have a 2-18 shooting performance. TNT's Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Chris Webber blamed Cleveland's coaching staff for supposedly putting James in bad positions on the court, saying that James should have been receiving the ball at the foul line extended or in some of the "sweet spots" where Bryant operates but James is not that kind of player: his game is based on attacking off of the dribble, not on setting up in the midpost area; if James catches the ball there it will be easier to trap him and recover to the shooters and James does not have the footwork or shooting prowess that Bryant uses to free himself and score in that area of the court. The one thing that was unusual was that on a few occasions when James managed to break through the wall and get to the hoop he missed layups, including one that could have tied the game with less than 10 seconds left; he is perhaps the best finisher in the game but those misses could have been the result of how much mental and physical energy he was forced to exert throughout the game, plus the fact that even those close shots were well contested by bigger players.
3) Many of James' turnovers resulted from poor decisions and trying to force things. He seemed to be frustrated because he missed so many shots and he also seemed anxious to try to beat the traps by threading the needle with his passes. One way that the coaching staff and his teammates can help James is by making sure that they space the floor in a way that creates a shot for someone in the area of the court where the Cavs have a four on three advantage when James is being trapped.
Bashing Cleveland Coach Mike Brown for his allegedly bad offensive game plan is a popular pastime but let's look at this objectively. Brown is a defensive-minded coach whose philosophies derive from his time spent working in San Antonio under Gregg Popovich; building a team around defense and rebounding has worked pretty well for Popovich, wouldn't you say? Everybody loves to watch Phoenix, Golden State and Denver but Brown's Cavs have won five playoff series while losing just two, so his team gets it done when it counts--in the postseason--better than any of those squads have the past couple years. This season, James led the league in scoring while shooting a good percentage and he ranked in the top ten in assists. The Cavs dealt with holdouts, injuries and a big trade and still earned the fourth seed in the East; then they beat a team with three All-Stars who many "experts" thought would be a tough out (those were probably the same "experts" who predicted that the Cavs would not even make the playoffs--like Stephen A. Smith, who had the no-defense Nuggets going to the Finals and the Cavs going to the lottery). Brown's formula for success is to keep the game close by playing great defense and by rebounding well so that James--one of the game's great finishers--has an opportunity to take over at the end. Although game one was hardly aesthetically pleasing, it actually went according to plan for Cleveland more so than for Boston, whose Coach Doc Rivers repeatedly stressed that he wanted his team to play more of an uptempo style. Mike D'Antoni or Don Nelson or George Karl may have drawn up a looser, more fun to watch offensive game plan for Cleveland (though that may not be possible with their current personnel, something that the pundits don't seem to understand) but that would likely have resulted in a 110-100 loss, not a game that was winnable until the very end. As Herm Edwards famously said, "You play to win the game." Brown's overall philosophy results in Cleveland being in a lot of close games in which James can make his imprint felt at the end; if Brown opened things up and got into uptempo shootouts then some of his slow footed Clydesdales (Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith) might fall out in the middle of the game.
This game had a strange feel right from the start. Neither team scored for nearly a minute and a half until James broke the ice with a fast break layup. Who would have imagined that he'd make only one more field goal the rest of the game? Cleveland and Boston each missed six of their first seven field goal attempts, but Boston then made eight straight shots, going ahead 25-15 by the end of the first quarter. The Celtics pushed their lead to 29-17 but the Cavs chipped away even though James was on the bench; there is a widely believed myth that James is leading a cast of nobodies but the fact that he could play so poorly and his team could still stay in contact for 48 minutes with a 66-16 Boston team refutes that notion (a point that TNT's Mike Fratello made during the telecast): when the Cavs are healthy they actually go 10 deep in terms of players who can play at least 20-25 productive minutes on a given night. The Cavs defended well and made some timely shots to trim the margin to 29-22 while James rested for more than four minutes. After Cassell committed a flagrant one foul against James, James made two free throws to cut the lead to 30-26. Boston led 41-37 at halftime.
Two Garnett baskets in the first minute of the third quarter made the score 45-37 and it seemed like Boston might pull away but instead Cleveland went on a 14-0 run in the next 6:06. The Celtics closed the quarter with an 8-2 burst to make the score 53-52 Boston going into the fourth quarter. Fratello helpfully reminded any viewers who tuned in late that this was not a halftime score.
Cassell really made his presence felt in the fourth quarter, scoring 10 points, including eight points in a three and half minute stretch during which Boston built a 66-60 lead; he also made the two free throws with :52 left that put the Celtics up for good. Garnett, who is not known as a go-to scorer or a particularly great late game performer, had eight fourth quarter points. James had two points and two assists in the fourth quarter, shooting 1-8 from the field, including 0-4 in the final :55. His inability to consistently make jumpers means that when defenders build a wall around the paint they don't have to get right on top of him; play that kind of defense against Bryant and you are asking for a barrage of three pointers and long jumpers and a 50 point explosion. While James did hit some long shots in his tremendous game five tour de force last year versus Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals, the real problem for the Pistons was that they repeatedly let him get all the way to the hoop and dunk, something that the Spurs and Celtics prevented.
Each team can create a positive spin about this game: the Cavs can say that this was a winnable game despite James' bad numbers and that if they get the same defensive effort combined with just a little more production from him then they will win game two; the Celtics can say that they won despite horrible shooting performances from two of their three All-Stars and that this was Cleveland's best chance to steal a game in Boston. The reality is that for the Cavs to have a good shot to win this series they needed to win game one. Kenny Smith astutely said that in every series there is a game that you have to win--it could happen at any point but when it happens you cannot miss that opportunity. The Cavs just missed that opportunity and I suspect that they will spend all summer thinking about it after this series is over. Yes, Cleveland came back from a 2-0 deficit versus Detroit last year but these Celtics play with much more effort and consistency on a nightly basis than the Pistons do, so instead of the Cavs putting the Celtics in a must win situation the Cavs are now in that unenviable position; I don't know who started the myth about teams merely "holding serve" by winning the first two games but the truth is that when the home team wins the first two games they win the series 94% of the time, so Cleveland's season is very much on the line in 48 hours. It would have been interesting to see Garnett, Pierce and Allen have to deal with that kind of pressure, particularly after a game in which Pierce and Allen shot so poorly. We just saw the Suns almost beat the Spurs in game one and then fall apart after that; I suspect that Cleveland will demonstrate much more resiliency and toughness than the Suns did but that does not change the fact that they now must win four times in six games against the team with the best record in the NBA.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
posted by David Friedman @ 4:07 AM
The Best Player is Finally Recognized as the "Most Valuable"
The worst kept secret in the NBA was officially confirmed at about 5:45 p.m. when the NBA held a press conference in order to announce that Kobe Bryant has won the 2007-08 regular season MVP award. Bryant received 82 first place votes and 1100 total points, easily outdistancing second place finisher Chris Paul, who received 28 first place votes and 894 total points. Kevin Garnett (15; 670) and LeBron James (1; 438) rounded out the top four.
For several years, Bryant has been widely acknowledged to be the best player in the NBA, the player who is most feared both taking the last shot and defending an opposing player who is taking the last shot. However, despite holding that unofficial title, Bryant had never even finished second in MVP voting and by winning his first MVP in his 12th season he tied Karl Malone's record for most years played before winning an MVP.
Before Bryant was presented with the trophy, Lakers Coach Phil Jackson spoke briefly, saying, "I don't know anybody who has ever deserved this trophy more. I've never known anybody who has worked as hard to accomplish what he has accomplished in this game as Kobe has."
Although in years past Bryant understandably downplayed his disappointment at not winning the MVP, he was clearly very happy and excited that his hard work and excellence have finally received official recognition; Bryant literally could not wipe the smile off of his face and he later admitted, "I'm nervous and I don't usually get nervous."
After receiving the trophy, Bryant said, "I really don't what to say, to be honest with you. I think that this is really such a blessing and such an honor to be here and receive this award. I can go through a list of thank yous, starting with my family; they enable me to be the best I can be by training every day and they give up so much--sacrifice so much--for me to be able to train and prepare and focus on games. I am just very honored and very blessed for them to be here, see my kids sitting there in the front row and my agent Rob Pelinka and my friends from the league and my teammates and the man who brought me into the league, Jerry West. This is a beautiful day, this is a very special day for me. I am just deeply, deeply honored to be here."
He concluded, "I couldn't have won this award without my teammates...These are my guys, these are my brothers. We won MVP." Later, in response to a question from a reporter, Bryant reiterated this point, calling the MVP a team award, adding "I couldn't have done it without them."
There is a false perception among the general public that Bryant is not a likable person and/or is not well liked around the league. Frankly, I've never understood why that should have any bearing on the MVP voting, but at this press conference the public got a glimpse of a side of Bryant that they have probably never seen before: his teammate Luke Walton took a microphone and jokingly asked Bryant if he planned to get anything for his teammates since this is a "team award." Bryant laughed, quipped about "spoiled athletes" and jokingly asked, "What ever happened to the pat on the back, the 'atta boy?'" before saying that of course he plans to get something for his teammates. A Spanish reporter asked Bryant a question in Spanish and requested that he answer in that language. Bryant seemed to be doing OK for a minute but then threw in some English words and said with a smile, "That's Spanglish. I should have asked Pau (Gasol) for a cheat sheet."
Longtime Lakers assistant coach Tex Winter took a microphone and said that there is something he has always wanted to ask Kobe: "How do you like the Triangle (Offense)?"
Of course, Bryant--like Michael Jordan before him--has sometimes chafed at running the Triangle but he also understands that overall the Triangle Offense has been very good for him. Bryant replied, "I love it, Tex." Bryant then recalled how he met with Winter right after Jackson first became the Lakers coach and he said of Jackson and Winter, "They are responsible for me seeing the game differently than most of my peers do. That is why I call him (Tex Winter) 'Master Yoda.'"
Labels: Kobe Bryant, NBA MVP
posted by David Friedman @ 6:46 PM
Boston Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Boston (66-16) vs. #4 Cleveland (45-37)
Season series: 2-2
Cleveland can win if…LeBron James continues to play at an MVP-level, the Cavaliers win the rebounding battle and their defense performs at least as well as the Celtics'.
Boston will win because… over the course of this season they have more consistently been committed to playing playoff caliber defense.
Other things to consider: A lot of interesting questions will be answered by the end of this series. Are Boston's three stars better than Cleveland's one star? Does Cleveland's collective playoff experience from last year's run to the NBA Finals (and Ben Wallace's two trips to the NBA Finals as a member of the Detroit Pistons) give the Cavs an advantage over team whose three top players have never been to the Finals? Was the Atlanta series a wakeup call for the Celtics that helped them regain the necessary focus to make a title run or did it simply reveal fatal weaknesses in the makeup of Boston's team?
Based on what I've already seen from James I'd rather have him than have Boston's three stars, particularly in a playoff series; James can take over a game in a way that none of Boston's stars can. Cleveland's collective playoff experience was more of an edge for the Cavs before they traded away half of their roster; in some ways the Cavs are going through training camp and the playoffs at the same time as they try to familiarize their new guys with the Cleveland way of doing things. I think that the Atlanta series was both a wakeup call and a revelation; winning a seventh game together is a big step for Boston but at some point the Celtics will need to win a road playoff game and they have yet to play well on the road in the playoffs, let alone win a game there.
At the beginning of the season I definitely thought that Cleveland would be able to beat Boston if the two teams met in the playoffs. Then the Celtics turned out to be better than I had expected while the Cavs struggled to deal with holdouts and injuries before literally trading away half of the roster. Before the playoffs began I picked Boston to win the East and I still expect that to happen. However, Cleveland has a puncher's chance to beat Boston and the blueprint for that to happen revolves around winning game one to put immediate pressure on the Celtics to have to win at least one road game in the series. If the Cavs win game one then I think that they have an excellent chance to win the series but I expect the Celtics to prevail in seven games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 7:42 AM
Hornets Rout Spurs Again to Take 2-0 Series Lead
On ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown show, Chris Berman is fond of repeating the line, "Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a problem." New Orleans has blown out San Antonio two games in a row, so the Spurs are one loss away from having a serious problem and two losses away from taking an early vacation. New Orleans' 102-84 victory on Monday night was a very impressive display of teamwork at both ends of the court. Chris Paul led the way with 30 points, 12 assists and just one turnover. His three most important skills are quickness, court vision and good decision making; he has a very highly developed sense of when to shoot and when to pass and that is why his field goal percentage is high and his turnovers are low. He is already better now than two-time MVP Steve Nash ever was because Paul has more foot speed and he is not a defensive liability. David West had 10 rebounds and five assists but he shot just 2-11 from the field, finishing with 10 points; Peja Stojakovic (25 points on 8-13 field goal shooting) and Morris Peterson (12 points on 5-5 field goal shooting) teamed with Paul to pick up the slack.
Naturally, the media and fans will tend to focus on the masterful way that Paul choreographed the Hornets' offense but the job that New Orleans is doing on defense is at least as impressive: the Hornets held the Spurs to 31-73 field goal shooting (.425), containing each of the team's three stars without letting any of the role players get loose. Tim Duncan bounced back from his disastrous game one performance to put up solid numbers (18 points, eight rebounds) but he never controlled the action and he actually had the worst plus/minus number (-32) of anyone in the game, which has to be a pretty rare occurrence for him. Manu Ginobili scored 13 points on 4-10 field goal shooting and his seven assists were nearly offset by his game-high five turnovers, several of which were the result of good on the ball pressure by the Hornets. Tony Parker played like a Hall of Famer versus Nash's Suns but he looked very ordinary in this game, scoring 11 points on 5-14 field goal shooting and having as many turnovers as assists (three).
Why are the playoff-neophyte Hornets having more success against the Spurs than the Suns ever did? The first reason is that the Hornets don't have to crossmatch in order to guard Parker; unlike Nash, Paul can stay in front of him and, when necessary, steer him toward his shotblockers (as opposed to letting Parker go wherever he wants to go, which is what the Suns kept doing no matter who had the primary defensive responsibility to check him). The second reason is that the Hornets are much more committed to their defensive scheme than the Suns have ever been; prior to game two, West told a TNT interviewer that the Hornets will never hang a teammate out to dry: if there is a matchup that is troublesome for a given player then another Hornet will slide over to help. You see that repeatedly with the way that they swarm Duncan in the post and then rotate quickly if Duncan swings the ball to an open man. Phoenix has a lot of quick and athletic players but the Suns seem to move to the ball much faster on offense than they do when they are rotating on defense; as West explained after game two, New Orleans has a totally different mindset than that: "We're trying to make sure our defense is where we want to start. We don't worry about what we're doing on the offensive end. We stuck to what we do." The third reason is that Tyson Chandler and West do an excellent job of protecting the paint, shutting off dribble penetration and blocking shots. When a team has a solid defensive point guard, a commitment to play energetically on defense and big guys who guard the paint then it can make life very miserable for opponents.
New Orleans Coach Byron Scott is just the latest example of a Coach of the Year who has been wrongly blasted for years by fans and media members who don't know the first thing about evaluating whether or not a coach is doing a good job; you cannot go strictly by wins and losses because some teams simply don't have enough talent in place to win a lot of games. A well coached team plays hard, plays together at both ends of the court, executes well (which still may not result in wins if the opposing team is much more talented) and demonstrates improvement over time both individually and collectively. Greg Anthony once made a great point about Phil Jackson: his teams never underachieve--when Jackson has had great talent he has won championships (which is not easy to do) but even when his teams were not good enough to win it all they played up to their maximum potential. Scott's New Jersey Nets improved from 26 wins in 2001 to 52 wins and an NBA Finals berth in 2002; granted, trading Stephon Marbury for Jason Kidd played a big role in that transformation but there are no "headless horsemen" in the NBA: a team has to be well prepared and well coached to have success, especially in the playoffs. Scott's Hornets improved from 18 wins in 2005 to 38 wins in 2006 and after an injury-riddled 2007 they jumped to 56 wins this season. Unless you are foolish enough to believe that Scott either (1) has suddenly gotten much smarter or (2) had nothing to do with either team's improvement then you have to recognize that he is a very good coach.
Don't interpret this post to be some kind of eulogy for the Spurs. This is not the time for that--yet. Although history shows that teams that win the first two games of a playoff series at home virtually always win the series, the veteran-laden defending champions should not be counted out. The Spurs have led at halftime in both games only to get blitzed in the third quarter on each occasion. They must find a way to avoid the offensive dry spells that have plagued them right after halftime and they must tinker a bit with their defensive game plan: Paul is a pass-first player, so I think that the Spurs should stay at home on guys like Stojakovic and Peterson and force Paul to shoot more often; of course, that plan won't work if Paul gets into the paint and shoots layups, so the Spurs must build a wall around the paint the way that they did against LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers in last year's NBA Finals.
If the Spurs "hold serve" in games three and four then there will obviously be a lot of pressure on the Hornets to win game five at home to avoid facing an elimination game on the road.
Labels: Chris Paul, David West, Manu Ginobili, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 7:19 AM
Carnival of the NBA #56 Hosted by The On Deck Circle
Carnival of the NBA #56 is being hosted by The On Deck Circle. This Carnival does not have a particular theme but it features several interesting contributions.
Most of what I do here is straight up analysis and commentary but I decided to submit a humorous post this time around (though there is actually some analysis in it if you pay attention):
The Next Top 40 Hit: Josh Howard Sings "Because I Got High."Labels: Carnival of the NBA, Josh Howard
posted by David Friedman @ 7:00 AM
Will the Real Cavs and Celtics Please Stand Up?
The Boston Celtics won an NBA-best 66 regular season games and then almost lost in the first round to a 37 win Atlanta team. The Cleveland Cavaliers made it to the 2007 NBA Finals and then traded away half of their roster, with mixed results thus far. Do we really know who either of these teams are? In about two weeks, one of these teams will be playing in the Eastern Conference Finals and the other one will be trying to figure out what went wrong (6/17/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
Are the real
Boston Celtics the team that went 66-16 this season or are they the team that
lost three playoff games in Atlanta
to move within 48 minutes of suffering the biggest upset in NBA postseason
history? Are the real Cleveland Cavaliers the team that routed the Washington
Wizards in game two or are they the team that Washington ran over in game three? Within
the next two weeks or so we will find out who the real Boston Celtics and Cleveland
Cavaliers are, because by that time one of these teams will advance to the
Eastern Conference Finals while the other team will spend the offseason trying
to figure out what went wrong.
Boston and Cleveland
split their regular season series 2-2 but you can disregard the first three
games because they took place prior to Cleveland’s
big trade. Cleveland’s fourth game versus Boston was a 92-87 road loss on February 27,
just five days after the trade. It was a back to back for Cleveland and the
team’s third game in four nights, while the Celtics had a day off prior to the
game after returning from a five game Western road trip. LeBron James missed
the last 4:24 of the first half versus Boston
after spraining his ankle but he returned to action in the second half.
Needless to say, considering the scheduling, the adjustment period after the
trade and James’ injury that fourth game cannot tell us too much about the
upcoming playoff series.
One thing
that we do know is that when James has been on the court for the Cavaliers this
season they have been competitive with the Celtics and that is a significant
consideration. The individual matchup between LeBron James and Paul Pierce has
gotten chippy on several occasions over the years so it will be very
interesting to see them square off against each other in the playoffs for the
first time. James clearly is the better player but the Celtics have a lot of
bodies that they can throw at James defensively and James can certainly expect
to receive some hard fouls—though hopefully no reckless and dangerous blows
like the ones that Washington’s Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson
delivered—particularly if he does not shoot a good free throw percentage.
Cleveland’s three pronged formula for victory
is defense, rebounding and the all-around brilliance of James. Cleveland’s rebounding has been pretty
consistent this season and James obviously has played at an MVP-level but the
Cavs’ defense has been up and down, mainly due to the roster instability caused
by holdouts, injuries and the trade. The Cavs put it all together in game two
versus Washington,
which was certainly their best overall performance since the trade and probably
their best game since last season. Then they fell flat on their faces in game
three. The Cavs bounced back from that disaster to win two of the next three
games but Boston
is obviously a step up in weight class. Last year’s frontcourt rotation of
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varerjao had a nearly perfect
blend of size, mobility and shooting touch; the current frontcourt rotation of
Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Varejao and Joe Smith has one more body but is older
and not quite as well balanced. Wallace has obviously lost a lot of his
athleticism and some of his energy, so he neither rebounds nor defends with his
former gusto. Smith struggled with his shot versus Washington
and neither Wallace nor Varejao are big-time scoring options, so Cleveland misses the
scoring punch that Gooden provided.
Cleveland used a backcourt rotation of Larry
Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic and Daniel Gibson during last year’s run to the NBA
Finals. Hughes departed in the trade and Pavlovic has been injured down the
stretch, so the current backcourt rotation is Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak,
Gibson and Devin Brown. Again, the Cavs have one more body than they did last
season but whether or not the current rotation blends together as well as last
year’s did is still an open question. West is the one player from the big trade
who has probably come closest to consistently producing at the expected level.
Szczerbiak’s shooting has been very inconsistent and his defense is not good,
to be charitable; he will have major difficulties guarding Ray Allen. Gibson
has been nursing an ankle injury but he is a big-time shooter who has proven
that he can make clutch shots. Brown is a nice utility player who defends and
can provide some scoring even though he is not a pure shooter.
If the Cavs
had a healthy version of last year’s roster I’d definitely pick them to beat
this year’s Celtics; that Cavs team proved versus Detroit that it could beat a strong team in a
hostile environment in a playoff setting. The current Cavs have one extra body
in both the frontcourt and backcourt rotations, so I understand Danny Ferry’s
thinking in pulling the trigger on the trade, but the new Cavs have not been
together as long as the previous unit was (that crew had multiple seasons
together plus two full playoff runs in 2006 and 2007) and there are questions
about the scoring punch at the power forward position and the defense at the
shooting guard position.
Boston actually has a very similar formula
for success that involves defense and rebounding but spreads the offensive load
among the “Big Three” of Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The Celtics’
bread and butter offensive play is to get Pierce the ball on the left side
either on the block or facing up his defender on the wing (depending on whether
the defender is a small, quick player or a big, slow player). Pierce has three
point range and is good at drawing contact to get to the free throw line, so
that offensive set poses a lot of problems for opposing defenses. Garnett likes
to shoot face up jumpers. When he goes to the block his preferred move is a
high arcing turnaround jumper while fading away slightly. Garnett’s two pet
moves are not apt to draw contact or put him in good offensive rebounding
position, so if the Celtics need a two point basket they are more apt to go to
Pierce. Of course, if the Celtics need a three pointer then they will run Allen
off of several screens to pop him open. Pierce can make threes and bench
players James Posey and Eddie House are also long range threats.
Young point
guard Rajon Rondo has performed better than a lot of people expected and the
Celtics acquired veteran Sam Cassell to be a steadying hand for about 16
minutes a game during the playoffs. Starting center Kendrick Perkins is a solid
player who crashes the offensive boards and dives to the hoop when one of the
“Big Three” gets double-teamed. Bench players Posey, Glen Davis and Leon Powe
provide energy and hustle.
The most
impressive thing this year about the Celtics is how consistently dominant they
have been at the defensive end of the court. That is why it is so surprising
that they lost three games to the Hawks. Those losses can be attributed to Atlanta’s athleticism and
some complacency by the Celtics after taking a 2-0 lead but it is also fair to
wonder if the Celtics will prove to truly be a championship level defensive
squad against good teams on the road. The disconcerting thing for Celtics’ fans
is that down the stretch in the games in Atlanta
the team lost its way both defensively and offensively. Maybe that series was
just a test that the Celtics had to pass on the way to becoming a championship
team or maybe the Celtics were exposed a bit in terms of not being a great
squad despite their impressive regular season record.
This may
sound odd, but the key to this series is game one. That is the underdog’s best
opportunity to steal a game and if the Cavaliers win game one then the Celtics
will have to win at least one game in Cleveland and that thought would weigh
heavily on the Celtics during game two. The Celtics have shown all year that
they are great frontrunners but can they execute under pressure in a playoff
series if they lose homecourt advantage right off the bat? Atlanta pushed the Celtics but deep down the
Celtics knew that they were the better team and that they had a game seven at
home in their back pockets. If they lose game one to Cleveland then they will not have such a
comfort zone. The blueprint for Cleveland
to win this series is to come out with a high energy performance defensively in
game one, backed up by a near triple double by James and timely shooting by one
or two of the perimeter players. That would set a great tone and provide Cleveland with an
opportunity to ultimately close the series out in game six at home.
Cleveland is certainly capable of pulling this
off but looking at the Celtics’ body of work this season compared to the
Cavaliers’ body of work, Boston
has to be considered the favorite. I expect the Celtics to win a tough seven
game series but if Cleveland
steals game one then the Cavaliers have a good shot of taking the series in six
games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 11:13 PM
The "25-5-5" Club
A triple double is considered to be a benchmark for measuring a player’s versatility. According to the Full Court section at BasketballReference.com, in the past five seasons there have been 171 regular season triple doubles in the NBA. Most of these triple doubles were compiled by stars but that list also contains the names Charlie Bell, Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, Earl Watson and Bob Sura (twice!); no disrespect intended toward those fine NBA veterans but it is clear that you do not have to be an all-time great to reach double figures in three categories in an NBA game. However, the list of players who have averaged at least 25 ppg, five rpg and five apg for an entire season (with the standard NBA minimum requirement of 70 games or 1400 points scored) is much smaller and more exclusive than the triple double list: in 62 years of NBA history and nine years of ABA history this feat has only been accomplished a total of 66 times by 24 different players, each of whom made the NBA or ABA All-Star team at least four times.
Many members of the “25-5-5 Club” are “midsize” players (i.e., small forward/shooting guard types) who at some point in their careers vied for the subjective title of best all-around player in the game, a lineage that could be said to run from Oscar Robertson and Jerry West in the 1960s to John Havlicek (late 1960s-early 1970s) to Rick Barry (mid 1970s) to Julius Erving (mid 1970s) to Larry Bird (1980s) to Michael Jordan (late 1980s-mid 1990s) to Grant Hill (late 1990s) to Tracy McGrady (early 2000s) to the current contenders for that crown, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
Elgin Baylor and Oscar Robertson founded the “25-5-5 Club” in 1960-61. Baylor averaged 34.8 ppg, 19.8 rpg and 5.1 apg that season. At that time, league leaders were ranked by totals, not averages, and he finished second in scoring, fourth in rebounding and ninth in assists. Baylor never had another 25-5-5 season, though he narrowly missed the mark in 1962-63 (34.0-14.3-4.8) and 1968-69 (24.8-10.6-5.4).
Robertson ranked third in scoring and first in assists in 1960-61 but did not crack the top ten in rebounding. He holds the all-time record with nine 25-5-5 seasons and he is also the only player to begin his career with eight straight 25-5-5 seasons; of course, in his second year (1961-62) Robertson averaged a triple double (30.8-12.5-11.4), something that no other player has ever done—and Robertson actually averaged a triple double overall for the first five seasons of his career! In six of Robertson’s 25-5-5 seasons he averaged at least 30 ppg and in five of them he averaged at least 10 apg, so it could be said that his 25-5-5 numbers were “larger” than anyone else’s, with the exception of Baylor’s lone effort and Wilt Chamberlain’s two 25-5-5 seasons. Robertson, Rick Barry, John Havlicek, Alex English and Larry Bird are the only players to have at least one 25-5-5 season after the age of 30.
Chamberlain averaged at least 33.5 ppg and 22.3 rpg in each of his first seven seasons but he did not reach the 5.0 apg mark until his fifth campaign (1963-64), when he averaged 36.9 ppg, 22.3 rpg and 5.0 apg. He ranked first in scoring, second in rebounding and fifth in assists that season. Chamberlain’s assists dropped in 1964-65 but in 1965-66 he averaged 33.5 ppg, 24.6 rpg and 5.2 apg, ranking first, first and seventh respectively in those categories. He never had another 25-5-5 season but his production in 1966-67 and 1967-68 is worth mentioning anyway: 24.1-24.2-7.8 (ranking third, first and third respectively) and 24.3-23.8-8.6 (ranking third, first and first, the closest anyone has come to leading the league in all three departments in the same season).
Jerry West had the first of his five 25-5-5 seasons in 1961-62, averaging 30.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 5.4 apg. Only Robertson, Michael Jordan (seven) and Kobe Bryant (six) have had more 25-5-5 seasons than West did and West was on track for a sixth one in 1967-68 but injuries limited him to 51 games.
Rick Barry is the only player to win scoring titles in the NCAA, ABA and NBA and he is also the only player to have a 25-5-5 season in the ABA and the NBA. Barry had a total of three 25-5-5 seasons, including his wonderful 1974-75 season (30.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.2 apg) when he led the Golden State Warriors to a 4-0 sweep of the Washington Bullets in the NBA Finals.
Julius Erving holds the ABA record with three 25-5-5 seasons, 1974-76, and he led the New York Nets to championships in two of those seasons (1974 and 1976). Erving won the scoring title in both of those championship years, finished second in scoring in 1975 and he ranked no lower than eighth in either of the other two categories during those three years. The closest Erving came to having a 25-5-5 season in the NBA happened in 1979-80, when he averaged 26.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 4.6 apg.
Larry Bird had four straight 25-5-5 seasons, winning his second and third MVPs the first two times (1985-86) he reached those numbers and then finishing third and second in the voting the next two times. Bird missed the mark in his first MVP season (1984) because he averaged 24.2 ppg. Bird averaged at least 5 rpg and 5 apg in 10 of his 11 full seasons.
Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Charlie Scott are the only players to average 25-5-5 in their rookie seasons; Scott did it as a Virginia Squire in the ABA in 1970-71 (27.1-5.2-5.6) and after narrowly missing the mark in his second season he never came close again. Jordan did not reach the 25-5-5 level for a couple seasons--injury shortened his second year and in his third season he averaged 37.1 ppg but only 4.6 apg—before having six straight 25-5-5 campaigns, the longest streak other than Robertson’s. In 1988-89, Jordan joined Robertson and Chamberlain as the only players to average at least 25-8-8; he led the league in scoring (32.5 ppg) while also averaging exactly 8.0 rpg and 8.0 apg. Jordan’s first retirement in 1992-93 marked the end of his 25-5-5 days, though he did reach those numbers in his 17 game cameo appearance in 1994-95.
Just before a series of ankle injuries short-circuited Grant Hill’s career, he had his lone 25-5-5 season, averaging 25.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg and 5.2 apg in 1999-00, his sixth and final season with Detroit. Hill reached the 5-5 levels in each of his first five seasons, so if he had stayed healthy and continued to develop as a scorer he may have put up several more 25-5-5 seasons. Hill has literally spent half of his career battling injuries and many people may have forgotten just how good he really was in his prime.
Tracy McGrady had four straight 25-5-5 seasons, spanning three years in Orlando and his first season with Houston. The albatross hanging around McGrady’s neck is that his teams have never won a playoff series but that is hardly his fault: his teams have never been good enough to advance and he has put up great numbers in both the regular season and the playoffs. At his best McGrady did many of the same things that Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are doing now and McGrady still plays that way during short stretches but, like Hill, his body often betrays him as injuries prevent him from consistently being an elite level player now.
In 2000-01, a 22 year old Kobe Bryant tied Robertson and Scott as the second youngest players to have a 25-5-5 season (McGrady joined that group in 2001-02); Jordan had his first such season at age 21 and in 2004-05 James broke that record by doing so at age 20. As noted above, Bryant has had six 25-5-5 seasons, the third most all-time behind Robertson (nine) and Jordan (seven). James (one), Bryant (one), McGrady (two), Jordan (six), Pete Maravich (one), Erving (two), George McGinnis (one) and Chamberlain (one) are the only players who won a scoring title while also averaging 25-5-5.
Hill’s misfortunes illustrate the hazards of trying to predict the future but James certainly seems to be on track to break many records, including Robertson’s mark for most 25-5-5 seasons; James has done this four times in his first five seasons. Robertson said years ago that James is the one player he thinks could match his feat of averaging a triple double for an entire season. I don’t think that anybody is going to do that but barring injury or a drastic restructuring of the Cavaliers (i.e., the acquisition of a dominant rebounder or a point guard who would cut into James’ rebounding or assists numbers respectively) it certainly looks like James will be putting up 25-5-5 (and then some) for many years to come. No one who is older than 31 has had a 25-5-5 season; Bryant would be 32 by the time he would have a chance to match Robertson’s nine 25-5-5 seasons but if James keeps up his pace until he is 32 then he will have amassed 13 such seasons (and possibly be making a run at Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record as well).
A player who can get a triple double is nice to have around but a player who can average 25-5-5 for a season can carry a team.
Labels: Jerry West, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant, Larry Bird, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain
posted by David Friedman @ 6:24 PM
38 Special: Lakers Ride Kobe Bryant's Scoring Outburst to a 109-98 Win Over Utah
Kobe Bryant's 38 points, seven assists and six rebounds in the Lakers' 109-98 game one win over the Jazz were actually only slightly above his playoff averages in those departments, an indication of just how high of a standard he has set for himself. Bryant shot 8-16 from the field and 21-23 from the free throw line, setting a franchise single game playoff record for free throws made. Pau Gasol chipped in nicely with 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, while Lamar Odom once again posted solid numbers (16 points, nine rebounds, three assists) as the third option. Ex-Jazz point guard Derek Fisher only scored five points but he had six assists and six steals while helping to force his counterpart and former teammate Deron Williams to shoot just 5-18 from the field, though Williams finished with 14 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. Mehmet Okur had 21 points and 19 rebounds and Carlos Boozer added 15 points and 14 rebounds as the Jazz outrebounded the Lakers 58-41; the Lakers overcame that deficit by holding the Jazz to just 36-95 field goal shooting (.379).
Bryant has become such a master of reading and reacting to various defensive alignments that Odom calls him
"Kobe-wan Kenobi." Bryant saw opportunities to attack right from the start, so he scored 15 first quarter points while shooting 4-6 from the field and 6-6 from the free throw line. Despite Bryant's high efficiency scoring, the Lakers only led 25-24 at the end of the first quarter because the rest of the team shot poorly from the field.
Bryant took his normal rest at the start of the second quarter and Sasha Vujacic picked up the slack off of the bench, dropping in nine quick points. When Lakers Coach Phil Jackson helmed the Chicago Bulls he often liked to play Scottie Pippen alongside four reserves while Michael Jordan rested, ensuring that there was a steadying hand to anchor the bench players while they were on the court. Jackson now has the luxury of using Gasol in that role and Gasol assisted on two of Vujacic's field goals. Several of the Lakers' bench players have improved this season but those players also benefit from often being able to play alongside either Bryant or Gasol.
The Lakers led 34-28 when Bryant returned to action. Bryant promptly converted a three point play, scored a fastbreak layup and made a nice lob pass to Gasol for an easy score to put the Lakers up 41-28. By that time, Bryant had scored 20 points on 6-8 shooting from the field while the rest of the team had scored 21 points on 8-26 shooting from the field. The Lakers maintained that margin for the rest of the quarter and led 54-41 at halftime. Bryant had 24 points in the first half, shooting 6-8 from the field and 11-11 from the free throw line. Factor in his two assists and the extra defensive attention that he attracted and Bryant accounted for significantly more than half of the Lakers' offense.
In addition to Bryant's sterling offensive numbers, another thing that helped the Lakers to build and maintain their lead is that they forced a lot of turnovers and converted them into easy baskets; Bryant of course played a major part in that defensive effort, too. The Jazz took much better care of the ball in the second half, which in turn choked off the Lakers' transition game.
Utah is a very physical team that pounds the glass and pounds opposing players and that relentless pressure tends to wear teams down over four quarters, as we saw in the first round when the Jazz beat the Rockets into submission. In the second half, Bryant missed several jumpers that he normally makes but he also continued to take the ball to the hoop, absorb contact and make his free throws. Still, the Jazz chipped away at the lead and eventually they pulled to within 85-80. The Lakers desperately needed a score and Bryant provided it, drawing a foul and making both of his free throws.
The Jazz answered by closing to within 91-87, prompting Jackson to call a timeout to set up a beautiful play: Bryant ran a screen/roll with Gasol and the defenders naturally trapped Bryant, who passed to a cutting Gasol, who drew a defender and then passed to a cutting Odom, who scored and drew a foul (Odom missed the resulting free throw). That was a wonderful sequence to watch and it was made possible because the Jazz had to trap Bryant to get the ball out of his hands; if a less dangerous guard ran that play, the Jazz could respond differently and not compromise their defense in the paint. This is why assist numbers and PER and EFF only tell part of the story; it is essential to watch the action in order to see how the offense attacks and how the defense reacts.
On their next possession, the Lakers ran a similar action but Bryant's pass to the cutting Gasol was just a bit too fast and too high, resulting in a turnover. The next time the Lakers got the ball, Bryant drove to the hoop, attacking Boozer and drawing his sixth foul. Bryant split the pair of free throws to give the Lakers a three possession lead (94-87) with 3:28 remaining. Bryant missed a jumper and a layup the next two times that the Lakers had the ball, but Gasol slipped to the hoop behind Bryant and tipped in the missed layup to put the Lakers up 96-89. After Ronnie Brewer made one free throw the Lakers again ran the Bryant/Gasol screen play, this time ending up with Bryant threading the needle with a bounce pass that Gasol converted into a layup for a 98-90 lead. ABC's Hubie Brown said, "They've been wearing out that pick and roll on the left side in the second half and it was a great pass to a guy who made the catch and delivered for you." Each element of that play is important: you need an offensive threat like Bryant who must be trapped by the defense--and who is an excellent passer--and you need a big guy who is mobile enough to roll to the hoop and who has good enough hands to catch and finish.
Although many members of the media love to beat their established storylines into the ground, it is not accurate to say that Bryant has become more unselfish this season; he started making winning plays--shots and passes--in the playoffs and the NBA Finals years ago. The change is that now Bryant has someone with whom he can actually play the two man game--I realize that this is not the first time that I have made this point but it bears repeating because so many people are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge the simple truth that Bryant did not learn how to play the team game this year; he was the leading playmaker on three championship teams, so passing the ball effectively is not a new skill for him--the Lakers simply went through a period during which he did not have many good targets who were capable of receiving passes and finishing plays.
Bryant provided the coup de grace with less than a minute to go when he corralled a defensive rebound and whipped a Wes Unseld-like outlet pass to Gasol for an easy layup and a 101-90 lead. Keep in mind that Bryant and Gasol have developed their marvelous on court chemistry despite playing less than half a season together.
This was a very solid win for the Lakers but they can hardly afford to get complacent; after the Jazz stopped turning the ball over they essentially played even with the Lakers in the second half (trailing 57-55) and the Jazz murdered the Lakers on the glass throughout the game, grabbing 25 offensive rebounds. Of course, part of the reason that so many offensive rebounds were available is that the Jazz missed a lot of shots but Phil Jackson cannot be pleased that Utah's starting frontcourt of Boozer-Okur-Andrei Kirilenko outrebounded the Lakers' starting frontcourt of Odom-Gasol-Vladimir Radmanovic 39-22. The Jazz outscored the Lakers in the paint 56-52 and when Utah's players made the right reads in their offensive sets they often got easy baskets inside.
As the series progresses it will be very important for the Lakers' long and lean bigs to not get overpowered by Utah's stockier bigs. In my
preview article about this series, I wondered how Phil Jackson would choose to deploy Gasol and Odom defensively. In game one, Gasol guarded Boozer while Odom checked Okur; I assume that Jackson wants to use Gasol's length against Boozer in the post while leaving Odom the task of chasing Okur around the perimeter and keeping him off of the boards (Odom did a much better job of the former than he did of the latter).
It will be interesting to see which adjustments Coach Jackson and Utah Coach Jerry Sloan make from game to game and how well their players implement these changes.
Labels: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Pau Gasol, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 5:03 AM
Celtics Pride: Stifling Defense Grounds Hawks, 99-65
In most cases, seventh games are death for the road team and that was certainly true on Sunday when Boston hammered Atlanta 99-65. The 65 points are the second fewest scored in a seventh game in the shot clock era and the Celtics also held the Hawks to .293 shooting from the field, the best defensive field goal percentage performance in a seventh game in the shot clock era and the third best in NBA history. Paul Pierce led five Celtics double figure scorers with 22 points and Kevin Garnett contributed 18 points and 11 rebounds. Ray Allen never found his groove and he was the only Boston starter to not score at least 10 points (seven points, 3-12 field goal shooting). Joe Johnson was Atlanta's high scorer with just 16 points on 5-17 field goal shooting and no other Hawk reached double figures until Salim Stoudamire came off of the bench to score 10 points in 15 minutes of garbage time action.
I agree with Jeff Van Gundy that it is wrong to say that Atlanta had nothing to lose in game seven; the Hawks had an opportunity to advance in the NBA playoffs and no matter how young and talented your team is you are not guaranteed to have that chance again. That said, the legacies of each of Boston's "Big Three" players hung in the balance and the tension and pressure that both teams felt during the early going was palpable. After Johnson opened the scoring with a three pointer and Kendrick Perkins put back an Allen miss, the teams traded an assortment of missed shots and turnovers before a strong Allen drive gave Boston a 4-3 lead. Garnett is not a go-to scorer and he did not even attempt a shot until he canned a jumper at the 5:40 mark but Pierce and Allen were both aggressive right from the start. In one 38 second stretch, Pierce committed a turnover, missed a layup and missed a three pointer but he continued to look for opportunities to score. If the Hawks had truly played as if they felt no pressure they could have definitely taken an early lead and really put the screws to the Celtics but the Hawks looked tentative, nervous and uncertain, shooting jumpers when they had openings to drive and missing layups when they did go to the hoop. Atlanta Coach Mike Woodson called two first quarter timeouts to try to settle his team down but Johnson was the only Atlanta player who even came close to playing his normal game in the first 12 minutes, scoring nine points on 3-6 field goal shooting. Pierce also had nine points as the Celtics led 27-16 at the end of the quarter. Boston held Atlanta to 6-23 field goal shooting and outrebounded the Hawks 17-8. Only a pair of Johnson three pointers late in the quarter kept the game from getting completely out of hand.
Atlanta only scored four points in the first 5:17 of the second quarter and the Celtics steadily increased their lead. Remarkably, Boston led 44-26 at halftime. It is not often that an NBA team scores just 26 points in a half; the playoff record low in the shot clock era is 23 points and it took a Johnson three pointer with 3:49 remaining to avoid tying that mark.
It is worth emphasizing that the Celtics were hardly burning up the scoreboard either; this game is an excellent demonstration of the truth of the saying that defense wins championships. The Celtics looked a little tight on offense--particularly right at the start of the game--but their defense was on point from tip-off to final buzzer and their relentless effort and execution at that end of the court made all of the difference. Allen had an awful shooting game and Pierce missed 13 of his 20 field goal attempts, so if the Celtics relied primarily on their offensive skills to win games then they would have had nothing to fall back on in this do or die situation--but this team wisely hangs its hat on defense, as most championship teams from the past have done. The Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors might want to look at the tape of this game and see how hard Boston played on defense.
The only slight drama in the second half came at the 9:09 mark of the third quarter when Marvin Williams committed a flagrant two foul on Boston's starting point guard Rajon Rondo. Williams said afterwards that he and Rondo are close friends and that he was not trying to hurt Rondo but regardless of his intent the play certainly looked like a total cheap shot and Williams can expect to be suspended for the start of the 2008-09 regular season. The NBA might want to consider taking some preemptive action--such as increasing the fines or making the suspensions longer--to discourage defenders from fouling players who are in mid-air in such a fashion that the fouled player comes crashing to the ground; NBA players are bigger, faster and more powerful than ever and you'd hate to see someone get seriously injured. The Brendan Haywood foul on LeBron James, the Jason Kidd foul on Jannero Pargo and the Williams foul on Rondo were all dangerous plays that could have had disastrous consequences and the same could be said of DeShawn Stevenson's wild swing at James' head, which fortunately was about as accurate as a Stevenson field goal attempt and thus did not connect squarely.
The Williams-Rondo play once again made me think of the Suns and Nuggets; Rondo crashed to the ground and briefly lay motionless under the basket that is right in front of Boston's bench but no Celtics' players left the area of the bench and none of the Celtics who were in the game at the time threw punches, talked trash or even did anything to warrant receiving a technical foul, proving once again that--contrary to what some Suns and Nuggets tried to make people believe last season--it is possible to keep control of your emotions even during a very heated moment in an NBA game. Near the end of the quarter, Garnett delivered an illegal screen to Zaza Pachulia, who had confronted Garnett earlier in the series; this was a hard foul but not a cheap shot and there is no question that Garnett did this quite deliberately--Mark Jackson noted that this is the old school way of getting a message across without injuring someone or getting suspended. The Celtics led 73-39 at that point and Boston Coach Doc Rivers wisely sat Garnett down for the remainder of the game. The Celtics doubled the Hawks' score on a few occasions during the third quarter, pushed the lead to as much as 79-41 and were up 79-43 going in to the fourth quarter as both teams began emptying their benches.
The Celtics' performance is impressive not only because of their total dominance of the Hawks but also in light of the considerable pressure on the team's three stars prior to this game, because they would have borne the brunt of the substantial amount of criticism that the Celtics would have received had Atlanta beaten them. However, the reality is that the Celtics should have never been in this position in the first place, pushed to within 48 minutes of elimination by a 37 win team that would not have even come close to making the playoffs in the Western Conference. Granted, it is hard to sweep anybody but there is no excuse for Boston to lose three games to this team--and the Celtics' easy victory in game seven only reinforces that point: the Hawks are simply no match for a fully focused Boston team, which makes one wonder why the Celtics were not that focused on a nightly basis during this series and why they were unable to sustain their concentration level at all in the three games played in Atlanta, particularly in the fourth quarters of those contests. Boston won the series, so perhaps we should not make too much of these lapses but we should not make too little of them, either: since the NBA expanded the first round series from five games to seven in 2003, no team that was pushed to seven games in the first round made it to the NBA Finals.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 2:07 AM
David West Dominates as Hornets Throttle Spurs, 101-82
David West scored a playoff career-high 30 points on 13-23 field goal shooting as the New Orleans Hornets beat the defending champion San Antonio Spurs 101-82. Chris Paul struggled with his shot for most of the game but he finished with 17 points on 7-16 shooting in addition to having 13 assists, four rebounds and four steals. Peja Stojakovic scored 22 points and a had a game-high +17 plus/minus rating. Tony Parker (23 points, five assists, five rebounds) and Manu Ginobili (19 points, seven assists, six rebounds) performed at their normal levels but Tim Duncan tied his playoff career-low with five points, shooting just 1-9 from the field and grabbing just three rebounds in 37 minutes. Duncan's performance reinforces a point that I made in a
recent post, namely that an MVP-level player will rarely put up such numbers but that if he does it is virtually impossible for his team to win; on the other hand, the Spurs can--and have--won when Ginobili has that kind of stat line.
New Orleans jumped out to an 8-0 lead in the first 3:13 of the game but Parker's reverse layup at the 6:04 mark tied the score at 10. In my preview article about this series
I suggested that Ginobili may be the X factor, so it was interesting to hear that TNT's Kenny Smith shares that point of view; we agree that the Hornets do not have anyone who can guard Ginobili. He first entered the game when the score was 8-2 New Orleans and he provided an immediate lift with 11 first quarter points. The Spurs led 27-23 by the end of the first quarter. There was a 19 minute delay before the start of the second quarter due to a bizarre mishap: the Hornets' mascot jumped off of a trampoline and through a ring of fire to dunk a basketball but when the game operations crew could not extinguish the ring of fire some firefighters stepped in and doused the ring with their fire extinguishers (instead of the CO2 that is normally used in these situations); that left a slippery residue all over the court. The NBA game is highly competitive and entertaining, so the sideshows that take place during timeouts are not only unnecessary but--in some instances--actually pose a health hazard to the league's most valuable asset, its great athletes. Players were still slipping around after play resumed and the officials stopped the action briefly midway through the second quarter so that the court could be swept again; the regularly scheduled halftime show was canceled so that the entire halftime could be spent cleaning the court. A team like the Phoenix Suns would no doubt use a disruption like this as an excuse if they lost but that is not the way that the Spurs operate; when Bruce Bowen was asked about it at halftime he said that both teams are playing under the same conditions, concluding, "You can't have any excuses."
The Spurs pushed their lead to 48-37 at the 2:46 mark of the second quarter and they still led 49-43 when San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich made the questionable decision to intentionally foul Tyson Chandler. I explained in my recaps of the Spurs-Suns series that Popovich believes in the strategy of intentionally fouling poor free throw shooters and that he especially likes to use this technique if his team is ahead; I also noted that if the fouled player makes just half of his free throws then the numbers work against the fouling team because an NBA possession is typically worth about one point. Chandler made both free throws in this instance and then the Spurs, operating against an entrenched New Orleans defense, ended up with a contested three point shot that missed, resulting in a 49-45 halftime score. Those two free points may not seem to matter in light of the final score but if the Spurs had defended, gotten a stop, pushed the ball and scored then they might have led by eight or nine at halftime. Intentionally fouling is not a good strategy, unless it is done to prevent a poor free throw shooter from converting a dunk or easy layup. West and Stojakovic each had 13 points in the first half, while Paul and Duncan only had three points each; Bruce Bowen had all 17 of his points in the first half.
West scored 11 points in the third quarter as the Hornets took a 74-66 lead. Michael Finley opened the fourth quarter with a three pointer to make the score 74-69 but New Orleans steadily pulled away after that. The Spurs' quarter by quarter scoring went 27-22-17-16 while the Hornets scored at least 22 in each quarter.
When the Hornets led 96-82 with less than two minutes remaining Paul only had 12 points on 5-14 field goal shooting but he split a pair of free throws and had a layup and a dunk that padded his scoring and shooting numbers; the reality is that on this night West was clearly the best player on the court. West created most of his shots on his own, using an impressive array of moves, finishing in the paint with either hand and also showcasing his deadly midrange jumper. He is a very difficult cover; the Spurs tried to protect Duncan from foul trouble by assigning this task mainly to Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto but Kenny Smith rightly noted after the game that Duncan is an All-Defensive Team player who sooner or later in this series will have to take on that challenge.
I received quite a surprise when I looked at the official play by play sheet and discovered that Paul was credited with assists on seven of West's 13 field goals. Rick Barry once told me that the only statistic that he trusts is free throw percentage and Oscar Robertson has complained many times that the definition of an assist is much more liberal now than it was during his playing days. I went back to the tape to look at each of West's field goals. His first three scores came on driving moves for which no assist was credited. Then things get very interesting. West's fourth field goal came at the 1:02 mark of the first quarter. Paul passed to Bonzi Wells, who swung the ball from the right elbow to West on the left baseline. West caught the ball at 1:06, took two dribbles and lofted a tough floater over Duncan. An assist is supposed to be awarded only if the recipient immediately shoots, not after he takes multiple dribbles, so there is no way that an assist should have been awarded--and if an assist was awarded it should have been given to Wells, not Paul.
Robertson would have a fit if he saw West's fifth field goal: Paul passed the ball to West at the 1:51 mark in the second quarter. West made a jab step to the right, drove left, stopped and shot a tough fadeaway jumper over Oberto and Thomas. West made a fake, took a dribble and then shot a fadeaway, so there absolutely should not be an assist awarded for that shot. Sloppy scorekeeping like this makes it easier to understand how guys like Paul and Steve Nash are racking up such lofty assist numbers and why people are convinced that West and Amare Stoudemire could not tie their shoelaces if their point guards did not help them. West displayed excellent footwork and ballhandling but people will look at the play by play sheet and boxscore and say, "Look how Paul is making West better."
West's sixth field goal was a hook shot for which Jannero Pargo received an assist, which is pretty strange considering that West received the ball on the left wing at the 1:13 mark, faked a jumper, took one dribble to the left, dribbled between his legs, drove across the lane to the right and shot a hook over Oberto at the 1:08 mark. How exactly did Pargo "assist" West?
At the 7:43 mark of the third quarter West made his seventh field goal, a dunk after a nice feed from Paul, the third time that Paul was credited with an assist on a West shot but the first one that actually was a legitimate assist by Paul.
At the 3:51 mark of the third quarter, Paul passed to West, who was stationed on the left block. West faked a drop step move, took two dribbles and then delivered a left handed hook. Again, no assist is supposed to be awarded on such a play but Paul was credited with one.
Less than two minutes later, Paul passed to West on the right wing. West faked a jumper, took two dribbles into the lane and made a tough runner. Shockingly, the friendly New Orleans scorekeeper did not give Paul an assist on this play.
About a minute later, Morris Peterson passed to West on the left wing. West faked a jumper, took two dribbles and made a fadeaway jumper. Naturally, Peterson was (wrongly) credited with an assist.
At the 10:17 mark of the fourth quarter, Paul passed to West on the right wing and West immediately raised up and made a jumper. That was correctly scored as an assist for Paul.
At the 9:36 mark of the fourth quarter, Paul passed to West on the left wing and West executed a reverse pivot before firing a fadeaway jumper. Paul was awarded an assist; West made a move after receiving the pass but he did shoot almost immediately, so that assist is marginal but acceptable. West's 13th field goal was a dunk off of a nice Paul feed.
So, of Paul's seven assists on West's field goals, three were clearly wrong, three were clearly correct and one was marginal. I have no idea whether or not this ratio is typical or a one game aberration but there is no question that the play by play sheet and boxscore from this game tell a much different story than the naked eye does.
Paul is a very good point guard and he hardly needs to have anybody padding his statistics. What's more, this is not fair to West--who is generating a lot of his offense on his own--nor is it fair to the players whose assist records Paul is breaking.
Labels: Chris Paul, David West, Manu Ginobili, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker
posted by David Friedman @ 9:57 AM
Pistons Contain Howard, Roll to a 91-72 Victory
Dwight Howard put up very impressive numbers in Orlando's first round victory over Toronto but he had just 12 points and eight rebounds as Detroit cruised to a 91-72 game one win over the Magic. Chauncey Billups led a balanced Detroit attack with 19 points and seven assists. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis paced Orlando with 18 points and seven rebounds each.
Orlando's offense is based on Howard attacking on the inside and drawing double teams that result in wide open three pointers for Turkoglu, Lewis and other perimeter players. Detroit countered by staying at home on Orlando's outside shooters and mainly using single coverage on Howard, who injured his left thumb in the second half but returned to action after getting it wrapped; the Pistons were able to do this because they have enough frontcourt depth to rotate several different primary defenders on to Howard, including Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Jason Maxiell. A great player cannot allow himself to be defended one on one, so the onus is on Howard, the Orlando coaching staff and the Orlando guards to make sure that the Pistons are not able to get away with this strategy in game two.
Detroit led for most of the game but the Pistons were only up 43-42 at halftime and they did not pull away for good until the fourth quarter. That suggets that Orlando should be able to compete with Detroit if the Magic tighten up a couple key areas: they must get the ball to Howard deeper in the post so that he can get Detroit in foul trouble and they must cut down on their turnovers (13) and/or force more Detroit turnovers (six) . The Pistons have repeatedly shown that they have a tendency to relax during a series, so a vigorous effort by Orlando in the wake of Detroit's easy game one win could very possibly lead to a victory for the Magic in game two.
Trailing 80-62 with 6:23 remaining in the game, the Magic officially waved the white flag by inserting J.J Redick into the lineup; Redick rarely appears on the court if the outcome of the game is still even vaguely in doubt. He missed all three of his field goal attempts in garbage time. I have not written about Redick for a while because he has fallen completely off of the map: he had four minutes of mop up duty in one game in the first round and he only appeared in four games in April--and that included the last two games of the regular season when the team's usual starters hardly played. Other than those two games, Redick has not played more than 10 minutes in a game since February 27.
The only reason that Redick is even worth mentioning is that prior to this season ESPN's David Thorpe
insisted that Redick will one day be a starter on a playoff team. Thorpe's regular job is to provide training for NBA players, so one could say that this lends credence to his player evaluations--or one could argue that this is a conflict of interest, since Thorpe may have commercial reasons to pump up (or downgrade) certain players' abilities (for instance, if Thorpe works with--or would like to work with--a given player one could reasonably wonder if this affects what he writes about him for ESPN). I've never met Thorpe, nor have I spoken with him but for someone whose paper credentials are so impressive on the surface--and who ESPN touts as some kind of basketball guru--he comes up with some evaluations that are so off the wall that one cannot help but wonder if something else is at play. Obviously, no one is perfect and even a knowledgeable person can make a mistake but an NBA scout who really knows his stuff laughed out loud when I first told him that Thorpe said that Redick could one day be a starter for a playoff team; I mean, at this point the real question is whether Redick can even find a spot in the regular rotation--starting for a playoff team is pure fantasy. That is why every time I see Redick glued to Orlando's bench I think back to that old Thorpe article and I wonder what the deal really is--does Thorpe honestly believe that Redick has the game to be a starter for an NBA playoff team or is that Thorpe's way of obliquely suggesting that he can train Redick well enough to eventually meet that challenge?
Labels: Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons, Dwight Howard, J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic
posted by David Friedman @ 7:53 AM
Will These Celtics be Remembered for 66 Wins or for a Game Seven Loss?
It is safe to say that no thought that there would be a seventh game in the Boston-Atlanta series. In my
2008 Playoff Preview, I wrote that Atlanta could beat Boston only if "Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagan and Dominique Wilkins emerge from a time machine." I
saw the Hawks in person late in the season and it was simply inconceivable to me that this team could beat a Boston squad that played at such a high level defensively throughout the season. I had my doubts about Boston prior to the season and I thought that four other Eastern teams had a better chance of advancing to the NBA Finals; ironically, if the Celtics lose on Sunday they could indeed be said to have finished fifth since they would be the last team eliminated before the start of round two of the playoffs. Boston's great team defense, the development of starting point guard Rajon Rondo and the surprising play of Boston's bench convinced me prior to the playoffs to change my original view and pick the Celtics to win the East.
The Celtics have won their three home games versus Atlanta very easily but the games in Atlanta have been close and the Celtics have not executed well down the stretch at either end of the court; the Hawks wore out a fairly straightforward Joe Johnson/Mike Bibby screen/roll play in game four but the Celtics never figured out how to defend it. Johnson did not put up huge numbers in game six but he once again made critical shots down the stretch.
The Celtics might have survived their defensive lapses if their offense had not also sputtered in crunch time. Boston has three All-Stars--well, two in game six after Paul Pierce fouled out--but the paradoxical downside to the way that they cruised through the regular season is that they never had to establish exactly what the offensive game plan would be down the stretch in a close game. TNT's Kenny Smith made a great point prior to Saturday's doubleheader: Kevin Garnett is one of the few franchise players in NBA history who cannot just go out and take over a game by dropping 40 points; he is a versatile player and a great defender but he cannot take a game or a series by the throat the way that most great players can (which perhaps raises the question if he really should be considered to be on the same level with players who can do that). Charles Barkley agreed with Smith and said that because of this it is up to Pierce to take over game seven and author that kind of performance. That is all well and good but what if the game is close down the stretch? Who will take the shots? How will the other players react if the ball is not in their hands? It is hard to imagine a team or three stars under more pressure than this: not only will this season be considered a failure if the Celtics lose to Atlanta but this will be called the greatest upset in NBA history and it will likely leave a permanent negative mark on the resumes of Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen--particularly if that trio never wins a championship--because there is no reason that this Boston team should lose a playoff series to this Atlanta team.
NBA history suggests that game sevens on the road are death, particularly for young teams, so the most probable outcome is that Boston will win--but when everything comes down to one game anything can happen: injuries, foul trouble or a career performance by an Atlanta player are all factors that could make the unthinkable become a Boston fan's worst nightmare. Usually in this situation I would predict a blowout win for the favored team but I think that the weight of the pressure of this situation is going to be difficult for the Celtics to handle and I expect this game to be much closer than the three previous games in Boston were.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 6:46 AM
