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Saturday, August 10, 2024

Stephen Curry's Late Three Point Barrage Leads Team USA to 98-87 Olympic Gold Medal Game Win Over France

"What is easy is seldom excellent."--Samuel Johnson

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 24 points--including 12 points in the final 2:47--as Team USA held off a resilient France to win 98-87 and earn a fifth straight Olympic gold medal game victory. The 11 point final margin belies how competitive this contest was. Team USA was clinging to an 82-79 lead with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter after Victor Wembanyama's putback dunk, but then Curry hit four three pointers in a 2:12 span to save the day. Curry had a game-high +20 plus/minus number and five assists. In the first four games of the Olympics, Curry scored just 29 points and he only shot 5-20 (.200) from three point range, but in two games of medal round play versus Serbia and France he tallied 60 points while shooting 17-26 (.654) from beyond the arc. 

Kevin Durant--who started for the first time for Team USA in 2024--added 15 points, four rebounds, and four assists. He is the first American male basketball player to win four Olympic gold medals. Devin Booker also scored 15 points, and he had six rebounds, three assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+18). 

LeBron James capped off an excellent Olympics with another great all-around performance, scoring 14 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. He joined Curry and Booker as the only players with double digit plus/minus numbers (+17). James averaged 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 8.5 apg in the 2024 Olympics, earning MVP honors for the event. James headlines an Olympics All-Star Five that includes Curry, Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), and Dennis Schroder (Germany).

No other American player scored in double figures, but Anthony Davis had an impact with eight points, a game-high nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots.

Only four Team USA players played at least 20 minutes: James (32), Durant (31), Curry (30), and Booker (28). Derrick White and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Haliburton never had a significant role for Team USA, but White ranked sixth on Team USA in minutes played during pool play before falling out of the rotation in medal round play.

Joel Embiid started at center alongside James, Durant, Curry, and Booker, but he finished with just four points in 11 minutes. He did not make a field goal, and he spent much more time on the bench inciting the French crowd than on the court contributing to the win. His decision to play for Team USA instead of France turned out well for him, and he can thank Curry, Durant, James, and Booker for adding a gold medal to a trophy case that is otherwise bereft of team championships. Considering his lack of productivity versus France, it would have been hilarious if the fans had chanted at him in French the familiar taunt that is directed toward players who are helping the opposing team at least as much as they are helping their own team: "He with us!" 

Jayson Tatum's playing time--or lack of playing time--has been a big story, and in the gold medal game he scored two points in 11 minutes with a -5 plus/minus number. He is one of the five best players in the NBA, but he did not fit in with Coach Steve Kerr's game plan or rotation.

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Guerschon Yabusele muscled his way to 20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Nando De Colo was the only other French player who scored in double figures (12 points). Evan Fournier runs hots and cold as a shooter, and in this game Team USA held him to eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting. France's rotations and substitution patterns were interesting, to put it mildly. Nic Batum played 25 minutes--third most on the team--despite having a plus/minus number (-20) that was -11 worse than any other French player. He led France in rebounding (eight rebounds) and assists (four) so he was productive, but when he was in the game France hemorrhaged points. In contrast, Rudy Gobert played just 12 minutes despite having a +3 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but Gobert had a positive impact with his defense, rebounding, and screen setting, so a case could be made that he earned more playing time.

In the past several years, France has consistently proven to be a worthy opponent for Team USA. Team USA beat France 87-82 in the gold medal game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) after losing to France 83-76 in the first game of pool play. France also defeated Team USA 89-79 in the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

This game proved to be no different, as it was competitive from the jump ball until the final buzzer.

James opened the scoring with a two-handed fast break dunk, and Wembanyama answered with a three pointer. Team USA led 12-11 at the 4:52 mark of the first quarter when the first substitutions were made, including Davis checking in for Embiid, and Fournier and Gobert entering for France. Tatum checked in for Durant at the 4:12 mark, when the score was still 12-11.

Team USA led 20-15 at the end of the first quarter while holding France to 1-9 three point field goal shooting, and Team USA extended that margin to 24-17 on two inside baskets by Davis. France countered with an 8-0 run to go up, 25-24. James put Team USA up 26-25 with a driving layup, but Team USA was not able to pull away. Yabusele cut Team USA's lead to 40-36 by posterizing James and then completing the three point play after James was called for a blocking foul. Team USA countered with a Curry three pointer followed by Booker's fast break layup and free throw after being fouled on the drive. Team USA led by double digits (46-36) for the first time. Yabusele's layup off of a Wembanyama feed just before the halftime buzzer trimmed Team USA's lead to eight, 49-41. 

Yabusele led France with 15 first half points, while Wembanyama had 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Booker was Team USA's only double figure scorer (13 points). James had seven points, five rebounds, and two assists. Team USA shot 9-20 (.450) from three point range in the first half while holding France to 3-16 (.188) three point field goal shooting.

Team USA began the third quarter with a 7-2 run in less than two minutes, and eventually widened the lead to 14 points (61-47), but just when it seemed like Team USA might pull away, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to pull France to within 65-56 at the 4:05 mark. After a timeout, both teams had multiple empty possessions before Fournier's three pointer cut Team USA's lead to 65-59. James answered with a three pointer to put Team USA up 68-59, and Team USA soon pushed the lead to 72-61, but France scored five points in the final 23 seconds to trail just 72-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA had seven turnovers in the third quarter.

Curry did not score in the first 7:13 of the fourth quarter before pouring in 12 of Team USA's 26 fourth quarter points. Team USA led 80-69 with less than seven minutes to go but could not sustain their double digit lead. For most of the fourth quarter, Team USA's offense featured sloppy ballhandling and missed shots, and France had outscored Team USA 13-10 in the final stanza before Curry heated up.

Team USA won the rebounding battle 37-33, but committed 17 turnovers compared to France's 13 turnovers. The key, as is often the case for Team USA in FIBA competitions, was that Team USA held France to 9-30 (.300) three point field goal shooting. As a bonus, Team USA shot 18-36 (.500) from beyond the arc. Curry did most of the long range damage with his 8-12 three point field goal shooting. 

Winning a gold medal under any circumstances is a tremendous accomplishment. Team USA was the prohibitive favorite and in the end they got the job done--but it is worth remembering that Team USA's roster included four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (James, Durant, Curry, Davis)--and this was almost certainly the last Olympics appearance for at least three of those four players. If Team USA needs that kind of overwhelming talent advantage on paper just to beat Serbia and France in very competitive games, then what foundation is Team USA building--either on this roster, or on the U19 and younger teams--for future FIBA success?

Curry's end of the game three point heroics were incredible--he zigged and zagged through France's defense like a video game character--but this is not a sustainable recipe for FIBA success because (1) this is almost certainly his last FIBA competition and (2) no one else can do what he did. If Team USA's formula for future FIBA success is going to be "Keep the game close and have one dude go ballistic for two minutes from three point range" then Team USA is going to struggle to win more gold medals versus countries that play team ball instead of hero ball. The formula for sustained FIBA success for Team USA is putting together a roster that plays stifling defense and then turns those defensive stops into transition scoring opportunities. It is fine--but not necessary--for some of those transition scoring opportunities to be three pointers, but the four late three pointers that Curry made are a testament to his individual greatness, not great game planning or ball movement.

As a Team USA fan, Curry's awesome late game shooting was exciting, but as an analyst/historian I wonder what is Team USA's plan for the future. 

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:06 PM

7 comments

Saturday, August 07, 2021

Team USA Avenges Early Loss to France, Claims Fourth Straight Olympic Gold Medal

Team USA started slowly in the gold medal game versus France and then sputtered down the stretch but did just enough in between to post an 87-82 victory in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021) to claim a fourth straight Olympic gold medal. Kevin Durant scored a game-high 29 points on 9-18 field goal shooting in 35 minutes after scoring 30 points in Olympic gold medal game wins in 2012 and 2016. Jayson Tatum added 19 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus a team-high seven rebounds. Jrue Holiday had 11 points on 5-13 field goal shooting while also grabbing five rebounds and playing his trademark stout defense. Damian Lillard was Team USA's only other double figure scorer with 11 points on 4-11 field goal shooting, but the only Team USA players with negative plus/minus numbers in this game were Lillard (-4) and Devin Booker (-8; he finished with 2 points on 0-4 field goal shooting in 22 minutes).

Rudy Gobert led France with 16 points on 5-5 field goal shooting and a game-high eight rebounds, while Evan Fournier also scored 16 points, but he shot just 5-15 from the field. During some stretches, Gobert was the best and most dominant player on the court, but his overall effectiveness was limited by his poor free throw shooting (6-13) and France's propensity to turn the ball over before even having a chance to feed him the ball deep in the paint. Gobert was one of three French starters who had a positive plus/minus number.

Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range, but--as is usually the case for Team USA in FIBA play--what mattered is that Team USA held France to 10-31 (.323) three point shooting without giving up too much in the paint. Team USA forced 18 turnovers while only committing nine turnovers, and Team USA only lost the rebounding battle 41-34 despite France having a bigger team.

France defeated Team USA 83-76 in Team USA's opening game of this year's Olympics and France fought Team USA hard from opening tip to final buzzer in the gold medal game. Team USA forced a turnover on France's first possession but then gave up deep post position and an easy dunk to Gobert on France's second possession. France led 10-4 after Fournier made a three pointer. France attacked effectively in the paint, but had a few careless turnovers. Team USA looked sluggish at both ends of the court, which has been a consistent first quarter problem throughout the Olympics. The one saving grace for Team USA was Durant, who singlehandedly wiped out France's early advantage, and carried Team USA to a 22-18 lead by the end of the first quarter. Durant had 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while his teammates had combined for 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting. Team USA shot just 2-11 (.182) from three point range but--more importantly--held France to 2-7 (.286) three point shooting without being dominated inside.

Team USA pushed their advantage to 39-26 in the second quarter, but only led 44-39 at halftime, with Durant pouring in 21 first half points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Tatum (11 points on 5-9 field goal shooting) was the only other Team USA player who reached double figures in scoring in the first half. Gobert paced France with 13 points on 4-4 field goal shooting, plus seven rebounds. Fournier added 11 points on 3-7 field goal shooting. France committed 10 turnovers, while Team USA went most of the half error free before finishing with two turnovers. France outshot Team USA from the field .462 to .432 and outrebounded Team USA 23-14 but Team USA had 11 more field goal attempts and Team USA took advantage of those extra opportunities. 

Throughout the Olympics, Team USA played very well in the third quarter and it seemed like this game would be no exception when Team USA expanded the margin to 71-57 at the 1:18 mark, but France closed the quarter with a 6-0 run to stay in contact heading into the final stanza. France shot 6-15 (.400) from three point range in the third quarter, as Team USA tilted their defense to the paint to stop Gobert from rolling to the hoop for dunks and/or free throw attempts after drawing fouls against smaller defenders who switched on to him.

France outscored Team USA 19-16 in the fourth quarter, and came within a few bounces of pulling off the upset. Team USA led 82-72 with 3:25 remaining after Tatum drilled a three pointer, but France kept clawing away, cutting the margin to 85-80 with :18 left after Lillard missed two free throws and Frank Ntilikina dunked. Holiday then threw a careless inbounds pass that Nic Batum stole, giving Ntilikina an opportunity to pull France within two points, but Ntilikina missed a three point shot. Nando de Colo grabbed the rebound, drew a foul on Draymond Green and canned two free throws. Team USA now had to inbound the ball successfully and make at least one free throw. Fittingly, Durant made two free throws to ice the game, averting a collapse that would have been eerily similar to--but much more devastating than--Team USA's stumbling finish versus France in the previous game between these teams.

It is difficult to compare Olympic performances from different eras against different levels of competition played under different rules, but there is little doubt that by any meaningful evaluation Durant is one of the best men's basketball players in Team USA history. He has repeatedly proven to be a clutch scorer, a very good rebounder, a solid playmaker, and even at times a defensive presence as a rim protector. This team would not have won a gold medal--and might not have won a medal at all--without Durant's high level play.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:16 AM

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Monday, July 26, 2021

Assessing Team USA After the 83-76 Loss to France

Gregg Popovich is a lock to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, but it is fair to say that his FIBA exploits will not figure prominently in his Hall of Fame display. Team USA has lost five of the last eight FIBA games that he has coached since 2019, including France's 83-76 win over Team USA in Team USA's first game in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021). This defeat snapped Team USA's 25 game Olympics winning streak, dating back to 2004 when Popovich was a Team USA assistant coach for Larry Brown. 

It is fair to say that France's Coach Vincent Collet outcoached Popovich, who had the much more talented roster yet could not figure out a way to stop France down the stretch. This is just Team USA's sixth loss in Olympic competition, and it might have been the worst from a coaching standpoint, as Popovich's crew blew a 74-67 lead with less than four minutes remaining.

Evan Fournier poured in a game-high 28 points versus a Team USA squad featuring--among others--All-Stars Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, and Devin Booker. Before the contest, I wondered why NBC had relegated Team USA's games to Peacock streaming, but maybe NBC suspected that the U.S. squad--which should never, ever, ever again be called any kind of "Dream Team"--may become known as the "Not Ready for Prime Time Players." 

Rudy Gobert had 14 points, nine rebounds, and no blocked shots, but those numbers do not reflect the impact that he had on winning. He was very disruptive at both ends of the court, converting high percentage shots in the paint while also deterring Team USA players from venturing into the lane; Gobert did not block any shots at least in part because Team USA players were very reluctant to shoot when he was nearby. It should be noted that the official scorer possibly missed at least one Gobert block around the 3:19 mark of the second quarter on a Damian Lillard drive.

Jrue Holiday led Team USA with 18 points, but he shot just 5-13 from the field. Kevin Durant, who is closing in on the Team USA career scoring record held by Carmelo Anthony, had just 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting. Lillard scored 11 points on 3-10 field goal shooting. Logo shots and one on one forays are not quite so easy when the opposing team is permitted to play defense, which is too often not the case in the modern NBA.

I am the last person to overreact to one game, or to assert something absurd such as a player's legacy or a coach's legacy should be defined by one game, particularly a game that is not an elimination game. However, Team USA's loss is embarrassing for a talented squad led by a highly respected coach. No matter what reasons and/or excuses are provided, Team USA should not lose to France. It is perhaps understandable for international teams that have several NBA players and more internal cohesion--based on playing together for a longer time--than Team USA to play competitively against Team USA, but when Team USA sends anything close to our A Team victory should be the only expectation. Popovich's indignant responses to legitimate media questions about this surprising loss and his coaching decisions are pathetic; if Popovich is truly not surprised that he lost to France coaching this roster then perhaps he is the wrong person for this job.

There is a tendency to seek simple, one dimensional answers/explanations, but the reality is that several factors contributed to this loss, and most of these factors are the same factors that led to previous Team USA losses in FIBA play. There are many commentators who insist that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to build a roster stacked with shooters, but the reality is that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to have guards who can pressure opposing ballhandlers, forcing turnovers to fuel the fast break attack. The best Team USA squads since the one and only real Dream Team in 1992 are the squads that had Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in the backcourt. I interviewed Steve Kerr--then the Suns General Manager--in 2007, not long after he spoke with then Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni about D'Antoni's experience as a Team USA assistant coach and Kerr told me that D'Antoni raved about Bryant's defensive impact: 

Prior to each game in last summer's FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it, and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact on Team USA.

Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective. 

Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period. 

Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.

Also, NBA officiating has always differed from FIBA officiating, but the differences are now more pronounced than ever; in the NBA, offensive players can get away with murder on the perimeter--including traveling, carrying, and running over defenders--while any defender who is in close proximity to an offensive player (especially an offensive player who is viewed as a star) is liable to be whistled for a foul. In the loss to France, five Team USA players had more fouls than field goals made! Durant, Booker, Lillard, and the other NBA All-Stars who are big time scorers are used to not only attempting a lot of free throws per game but they are also used to (1) not being whistled for fouls, and (2) having a lot of space to operate because defenders are wary of being whistled for fouls that not only put them in foul trouble but also put their team in the penalty. 

I am not a "get off my lawn" guy who thinks that today's players are terrible and old school players were perfect, but I do think that if Pete Maravich, Julius Erving, and Michael Jordan played under today's rules they would be setting records. At his best, Maravich averaged 31.1 ppg in a league with handchecking and no three point shot. Erving at his best averaged 31.9 ppg in the wide open ABA, and 26.9 ppg in an NBA with handchecking plus a three point shot that was then considered a novelty, not an offensive staple. Jordan at his best averaged 37.1 ppg in a league with handchecking and a three point shot that was still more novelty act than consistent weapon. 

Maravich was a great outside shooter, while Erving and Jordan were just adequate--but if they had grown up with the three point shot it is fair to assume that Maravich would have been an even better shooter, and that Erving and Jordan would have been better shooters as well. Even if Erving and Jordan did not become premier three point shooters, if they played in an era during which (1) three point shooters opened up the floor and (2) defensive players could not touch them on the perimeter then there would be no way to stop them from scoring and/or drawing fouls. Maravich, Erving, and Jordan would not be as flustered by FIBA play as the current NBA stars are because players in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s understood how to effectively play through contact.

One Team USA loss does not invalidate Popovich's coaching legacy, nor does it invalidate the legacies of Team USA's players--but one loss does show that the people responsible for assembling and coaching this team either forgot or did not fully learn the lessons from previous Team USA losses. Popovich's poor overall FIBA coaching track record, dating all the way back to his time as an assistant coach for the 2004 Olympic team that settled for a bronze medal, gives one pause.

Team USA can still win the gold medal if Popovich can formulate an effective defensive game plan--and inspire his players to execute that plan. Great defense will generate easy scoring opportunities, which will in turn take pressure off of Team USA's sputtering half court offense.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

2 comments

Thursday, September 12, 2019

France Defeats Team USA 89-79 in the FIBA World Cup

At least Team USA qualified for the Olympics--barely. Just one win after ensuring an invitation to the 2020 Olympics, Team USA lost to France 89-79 in the FIBA World Cup quarterfinals. Team USA will not win a medal, and the highest Team USA can finish is fifth--and that will require a victory against Serbia, whose loud mouth (but possibly prophetic) coach said before the tournament that Team USA would need divine intervention to beat his squad. As it turned out, Serbia lost 97-87 to Argentina to join Team USA in the (no) consolation round. It is not clear if Team USA is interested in and/or capable of making the loud mouth coach eat his words, particularly with no hardware at stake, but one would hope that Team USA will still strive for the best finish possible.

What should we make of Team USA?

This result is not shocking, or even surprising. As I explained a week ago, "This is not a dominant FIBA team. This is a team that, if it plays well and maximizes its potential, is capable of winning the gold medal, but this is a team that also might have to struggle to win a medal at all...In order to win the gold medal, Team USA needs to develop more chemistry/cohesion at both ends of the court, and someone needs to emerge as the go-to option down the stretch in close games. Those two tasks might sound divergent but they are not. Cohesion and chemistry keep things together for most of the game, but in a close contest you need to have a player who is so confident and so deadly that he must be double-teamed; that in turn opens up opportunities for players who are not good enough or not confident enough to create their own shots down the stretch. Against the better teams that also have skilled big men, Team USA will need at least 25 productive minutes from Turner."

While not surprising, this result is nevertheless disappointing. Granted, this was not our A team or even our B team--one could legitimately argue that this is our third string or possibly even fourth string squad--but should the United States be satisfied that a squad comprised entirely of NBA players finished no higher than fifth? It would be nice if our elite players understood the significance of representing their country and of being ambassadors for the sport, but a squad that, on paper, is easily talented enough to qualify for the NBA playoffs should not be bowing out before the medal round.

Gregg Popovich will likely be given a pass for this failure. He is popular with--or at least, respected by--the media, and already there have been articles published saying that Popovich is not to blame and that he did not do a bad job. Perhaps both of those statements are true, but it is evident that he did not do a great job, either--unless you buy the premise that a team with 12 NBA players maximized its potential by finishing no higher than fifth. Consider that France's starting lineup versus Team USA was Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, Nic Batum, Frank Ntilikina and Amath M'Baye. Team USA started Myles Turner, Harrison Barnes, Joe Harris, Donovan Mitchell and Kemba Walker. We know that FIBA playing conditions are different, and that most of the other FIBA teams have more experience playing together--but NFL Coach Bum Phillips once said of the legendary Coach Don Shula, "He could take his'n and beat your'n and he could take your'n and beat his'n." If Popovich could not win with the starting lineup that he had, I am less than convinced that he would have won if he switched seats with France's Coach Vincent Collet; it seems more likely that Popovich could have lost with either squad, kind of the FIBA anti-Don Shula. Keep in mind that Popovich was also an assistant coach for Team USA in the 2002 FIBA World Championship (now known as the FIBA World Cup) and the 2004 Olympics--and the less said about those squads, the better, but just know that Popovich has now had three chances in FIBA tournament play as a coach and he still does not own a gold medal.

Popovich's snarky routine with the media is getting more than a little old, too. I will be the first to admit that many media members ask stupid questions, but Popovich is often rude even to questioners who make legitimate inquiries. After the loss to France, Tim Reynolds asked Popovich if France's defense took away Donovan Mitchell or if Team USA just went away from Mitchell down the stretch. That is a fair question considering that Mitchell, who scored a game-high 29 points, did not score in the fourth quarter. Popovich replied, "Just write, don't coach. Just write."

I don't pretend to be a better coach than Popovich, but it is fair to say that many media members did their jobs better during this tournament than Popovich did his job, and there is no excuse for Popovich to brush off a legitimate question--unless his sarcasm is meant to mask the reality that he did not in fact have a good answer. If I had asked that question and Popovich had provided that answer, I would have followed up with, "Based on that non-answer, is it fair to say that you and your coaching staff had no counters for the fourth quarter strategies employed by France's coaching staff?" Popovich likes to star in little press conference soundbites, and most reporters are too scared or slow-witted to fire back, but respect is a two-way street and accountability should be expected of a Team USA coach who will return home without a medal.

Popovich is an all-time great NBA coach but he may not be a great FIBA coach and--regardless of how great he is--he should treat other working professionals with the respect that they deserve.

Popovich has a propensity for going with small lineups at questionable times. This possibly cost the Spurs the championship during the 2013 NBA Finals when Tim Duncan watched from the bench in game six as the Heat grabbed an offensive rebound that led to Ray Allen's series-changing three pointer. This almost cost Team USA in FIBA World Cup play against Turkey--and this played a role in Team USA's loss to France that eliminated Team USA from medal contention. Myles Turner played just 10 minutes; as I noted a week ago, Team USA was not going to beat any of the top notch FIBA teams if Turner played less than 25 minutes. Brook Lopez played less than five minutes and Mason Plumlee barely played a minute. Turner's benching while Rudy Gobert dominated Team USA's smaller players (21 points, 16 rebounds, three blocked shots) makes no sense, nor does it make any sense that Popovich used/wasted two roster spots for Lopez and Plumlee if he did not plan to incorporate them into the rotation.

Contrary to recent popular belief, small ball is not the cure for all ills, particularly when the opposing team has a dominant big man. Contrary to another persistent myth, the key to Team USA success in FIBA play is not that Team USA make a ton of three pointers; Team USA's advantage is having the size and athletic ability to play stifling defense.

France outscored Team USA 26-13 in the fourth quarter. FIBA quarters last only 10 minutes, so over the course of a 48 minute NBA game France scored at a 125 points per game pace during the decisive final stanza. Again, maybe this is not Popovich's fault and maybe he did not do a bad job--but he clearly did not do a great job in terms of roster selection/management, and in terms of developing a defensive game plan that this roster could execute under pressure.

Of course, Team USA's fourth quarter offensive output of 13 points is nothing to write home about, either, but Team USA led 74-67 with less than eight minutes to go in regulation. If Team USA had played lock down defense the rest of the way, they could have still won even without having an offensive explosion.

If Team USA's A team or B team shows up in the 2020 Olympics, Team USA will probably win regardless of who coaches, but it would be nice if Team USA--from top to bottom--took this more seriously and had a more professional approach regarding roster construction, player rotations and in-game strategy.

Maybe this was not a bad job--but it was not a great job, and it did not represent the best product that Team USA is capable of putting on the court, even considering the absence of Team USA's superstar players.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Monday, August 15, 2016

Team USA Edges France 100-97 to Finish 5-0 in Group A Play

Team USA improved to 5-0 and clinched first place in Group A with a 100-97 win over France but legitimate questions still remain about whether Team USA will win the gold medal. France outscored Team USA 51-45 in the second half despite being without the services of their floor leader, six-time All-Star/2007 NBA Finals MVP Tony Parker (who sat out to rest for the quarterfinal round). France shredded Team USA's defense, shooting 41-73 (.562) from the field. France also outrebounded Team USA 35-29. Each team committed 13 turnovers but that is a victory for France because a major part of Team USA's strategy is to win the turnover battle and convert those extra possessions into transition points.

In the wake of Team USA's lackluster 94-91 win over Serbia, Coach Mike Krzyzewski reinserted Klay Thompson in the starting lineup and returned Paul George to the bench. The other four starters remained the same: Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, DeMarcus Cousins and Kyrie Irving. Thompson emerged from his shooting slump to score a game-high 30 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, including 7-13 from three point range. Durant scored 17 points on 6-6 field goal shooting and he grabbed a team-high six rebounds. Irving (10 points, plus a U.S. Olympic record-tying 12 assists) and Anthony (10 points on 4-11 field goal shooting) were Team USA's other double figure scorers. Guards Thomas Heurtel (18 points, game-high eight rebounds, game-high nine assists) and Nando De Colo (18 points, five assists) led the way for France.

Plus/minus can be a noisy statistic, particularly in small sample sizes, but it is interesting that four Team USA players had negative plus/minus numbers in this game and three of them were starters: Cousins (-5), Anthony (-3) and Irving (-3); the other "negative" player was Draymond Green, who was -1 in just six minutes of playing time. It is probably not coincidental that the three "negative" starters are also the three starters who are the worst defensively, while Durant (who also has had his share of defensive lapses in the Olympics) was +2 and Thompson was +1.

Team USA got off to another slow start--a recurring theme during the Olympics--and trailed 9-5 after De Colo hit a jumper off of nice ball reversal and Heurtel scored a runner in the lane. De Colo and Heurtel got to wherever they wanted to go on the court for most of the game, either beating Team USA's guards off of the dribble or confusing Team USA's defense in screen/roll actions. Team USA's defense during the Olympics has been pathetic and seems to be getting worse instead of improving. Team USA is vastly more talented than any other team in this event, yet they are getting beaten defensively one on one (both in the post and on the perimeter), they are getting back doored for layups and they are defending screen/roll actions as if they have never seen them before in their lives.

I am rooting for Team USA but I cannot say that I am enjoying watching them play; they are careless, which is indicative of indifference, arrogance or some combination of both. Each Team USA player is a star on his own team, yet the players have reduced minutes and roles so there is no excuse for not playing hard at both ends of the court. Kevin Durant has repeatedly let players back door him for layups while he is blankly staring off into space. Maybe he should have signed with Houston instead of Golden State; his defense during the Olympics would mesh perfectly with James Harden's "Shaqtin' a Fool" caliber defense.

Durant looked engaged--at least offensively--for a brief spurt during the first quarter when he made a three pointer, a layup and a fast break layup to put Team USA up 12-9. He opened the game by scoring nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting after shooting 2-4 from the field in the entire game versus Serbia. Apparently satisfied that he had fulfilled his duties for the night, Durant scored just eight points over the next three quarters--not nearly enough to compensate for his lackluster defense. Durant is unquestionably the best player on this team. He is a dominant scorer and an above average defensive player when he is so inclined. If he is content to let others do the scoring on this team, that is fine, but then he should assert himself as a defensive stopper the way that Kobe Bryant did during the 2008 Olympics. Durant has the mobility and length to guard all five positions in FIBA play.

Team USA's offense is hardly a thing of beauty but even after the slow start they poured in 30 first quarter points, so tweaking the offense should not be Coach Krzyzewski's first priority. France scored 24 points in the first quarter, putting them on pace for 96 points--and they maintained that pace the rest of the way. France should not score more than 70-75 points against Team USA, particularly with Parker sitting out.

Team USA's second unit looked sharper than the starters and they extended the lead to 36-26 before the starters began returning to action. A De Colo three pointer cut the margin to 44-40 with 3:30 remaining but France bailed Team USA out to some extent by twice fouling three point shooters: Durant and Thompson combined to make six straight free throws, helping Team USA push the lead to 55-46 at halftime. Durant and Thompson each scored 13 first half points; Thompson had scored just 11 points combined in the first four games.

Thompson put on a shooting exhibition in the third quarter, draining five three pointers and helping Team USA build a 78-62 lead with 2:23 remaining but France kept their composure and closed the quarter on a 7-3 mini run to keep the contest within reach.

Every time the camera panned to Coach Krzyzewski during the fourth quarter I thought that his head was going to explode; his face seemed to be getting redder and redder and his lips became more and more tightly pursed. Assistant Coach Tom Thibodeau also looked less than pleased. After DeMar DeRozan handed free possessions to France with a careless inbounds pass followed by another turnover for traveling, Coach Krzyzewski was literally stomping mad.

As Team USA repeatedly crumbles in the fourth quarter, it is interesting to see who wants the ball. Irving definitely wants the ball but the problem is that once he gets it passing is absolutely, positively the last resort. It's not like he lacks passing skills; he is an excellent passer. Irving lacks the desire to pass the ball. The cliche saying is "He does not trust his teammates" but I think that the reality is he just has a whole lot of confidence in himself. Anthony also wants the ball but he too is very disinclined to pass it, so we are "treated" to his full repertoire of Knick moves: the endless jab steps, the pointless dribbling to nowhere and the low percentage shots with one or more defenders draped all over him. Irving and Anthony can make tough shots--but the question is why anyone on Team USA would ever take a tough shot when there are four other players on the court who are open for easier shots if one player has been surrounded defensively. Durant only wants the ball if it is delivered to him when and where he wants it. Doug Collins made a great observation about a late game Team USA offensive possession: Thompson cut through the lane and motioned to Durant to cut as well but Durant just stood in one spot as if he had been planted there like a tree. Thompson then cut back through the lane. That could be an interesting dynamic for the Golden State Warriors next season.

Speaking of the Warriors, it is worth noting that all three of Team USA's players from the 73-9 Warriors are having difficulties: Thompson had been in and out of the starting lineup before his breakout game against France, Green has not been great during his limited minutes and Harrison Barnes did not even play in three of the five games.

If Team USA is not careful, one of the upcoming games is going to end in defeat with an Irving runner or Anthony jumper bouncing off of the rim as time expires. Anthony's skill set should be well-suited to FIBA play but I have never been as convinced of his greatness as a FIBA player the way that many commentators are. He was part of the disastrous 2004 Olympic team and he was nowhere close to being the most important player for the 2008 and 2012 gold medalists, who featured the leadership/defensive intensity of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd (2008 only) plus the all-around play of LeBron James. Anthony scored a lot of points mainly because the opponents could not load up on him. This year, Anthony is the team's second leading scorer (15.2 ppg) but he has also jacked up far more shots than anyone else despite having the lowest field goal percentage among Team USA's top six scorers. Not including the two walkover games against vastly inferior competition (Venezuela and China), Anthony is shooting 18-40 (.450) from the field, including 3-8 versus Serbia and 4-11 versus France. If only Nigeria were on the remaining schedule then we could see Anthony pad his stats (as he did in the 2012 Olympics) but I question how productive--and, more importantly, how efficient--Anthony will be if Team USA needs critical baskets down the stretch of the kind that Bryant produced in the 2008 gold medal game versus Spain when no one else wanted the ball.

The fourth quarter versus France was a mess for Team USA. A Joffrey Lauvergne dunk cut Team USA's lead to 85-81 at the 5:27 mark. A Mickael Gelabale jumper kept France within five points (88-83) with just 4:03 to go. Team USA led 100-90 with 1:25 left and then seemingly decided to not try for the last 85 seconds as France scored the final seven points. It is true that France scored a three pointer came at the buzzer, so this was not a one possession game in the sense that the Serbia game was (with a three pointer to tie in the air a couple seconds before regulation time ended), but it is also true that France inexplicably elected not to foul down the stretch to extend the game.

Team USA players seem to have a blase attitude of "We did not play our best and we still won" but an alternative perspective is that France was not even trying to win this game (Parker rested, France did not intentionally foul with the game still in reach) but almost won anyway. Team USA should have pressured De Colo and Heurtel all over the court--particularly with Parker out of action and France's depth thus compromised--and won this game by 25 points to send a message to the rest of the field about how committed Team USA is to tough defense and to winning the gold medal.

Team USA's first game in the quarterfinals on Wednesday will be against the fourth place finisher in Group B, which will be determined by the results of Monday's final Group B games. If Team USA loses on Wednesday, they will be eliminated from medal contention. 

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:24 AM

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Sunday, July 29, 2012

Team USA Opens Olympics With 98-71 Win Over France

Team USA cruised to a 1-0 record in preliminary round play with a 98-71 victory over a French team that features eight players with NBA experience, including 2007 NBA Finals MVP Tony Parker. Team USA will play four more games in Group A; these are not elimination games but the top four teams from each group of six will advance to the "win or go home" quarterfinal round. Kevin Durant led Team USA with 22 points and he was one of three American players who grabbed nine rebounds. Kevin Love provided a nice spark off of the bench with 14 points, while Kobe Bryant was the only other Team USA player who scored in double figures--10 points in just 12 minutes of playing time as Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski wisely saved Bryant for some of the tougher games ahead in the Olympic format of one game every other day. LeBron James contributed nine points, a game-high eight assists, five rebounds and the highlight of the game: a two-handed over the head bounce pass that nearly traveled the length of the court before Durant caught it, resulting in a three point play to give Team USA an 11-5 lead. Tyson Chandler added eight points and nine rebounds in just 11 minutes, while Carmelo Anthony had nine points and nine rebounds but shot just 3-10 from the field. Team USA only shot 31-72 from the field (.431) but they forced 18 turnovers, outrebounded France 56-40 and held France to 26-66 field goal shooting (.394). Pressure defense and activity on the glass by Team USA's athletic wing players are more important for Team USA than their own field goal percentage, though of course it would be nice if Team USA played a bit more crisply at the offensive end of the court. Parker had just 10 points, one assist and four turnovers, perhaps hindered not just by the highly publicized injury that almost cost him the use of one eye but also because his recuperation from that injury limited his ability to train/stay in shape. Post player Ali Traore led France with 12 points.

Coach Krzyzewski went with a starting lineup of Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Tyson Chandler, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul; if/when things ever get tight for Team USA, expect to see Durant, James and Bryant on the court alongside one of the three point guards (Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Russell Westbrook) plus either Carmelo Anthony for offensive purposes (but only if Anthony improves his shot selection and field goal percentage) or Andre Iguodala for defensive purposes or possibly even a second point guard if Coach Krzyzewski wants to go really small. Team USA cannot go "big" and thus I suspect that Chandler and Love will not play heavy minutes in any competitive games, though they will be productive rebounders on a per minute basis; Team USA's strength is their combination of speed and depth, which enables them to keep playing at a fast tempo no matter which point guards or wings are in the game (though of course everything looks better when the wings are Durant, James and Bryant).

Team USA's starters took an early 13-7 lead but the first quarter featured some "disjointed" play (in the words of NBC commentator/Philadelphia 76ers Coach Doug Collins) with a lot of fouls being called against both teams and some Team USA players occasionally breaking the offense to go one on one; Collins declared that Team USA has so much talent that there is no reason for the squad to ever force a shot: just keep the ball moving and someone will get a good open look. After Team USA's reserves entered the game, France cut the margin to 22-21 by the end of the first quarter.

Team USA missed their first six three point shots but then James, Bryant and Paul each nailed a trey early in the second quarter to push the lead to 33-21 (Bryant also made two free throws during that 12-0 run). France fought back to cut the deficit to seven (33-26) but Team USA pulled away to a comfortable 52-36 halftime lead and France never mounted a serious threat the rest of the way; Team USA was ahead 78-51 by the end of the third quarter and the main fourth quarter drama consisted of Team USA trying to find a way to get Anthony Davis a basket (he eventually converted a Deron Williams lob from into a dunk).

As Team USA pulled away in the third quarter, Collins listed his four keys for Team USA to be successful in the Olympics (these keys will sound familiar to anyone who has followed 20 Second Timeout's coverage of Team USA's participation in FIBA events for the past several years, particularly my analysis of the reasons behind Team USA's FIBA losses from 2002-2006):

1) Pressure defense converted into points off of turnovers
2) Defend the three point line
3) Defensive rebounding
4) Depth

Yes, it is true that a few teams have post players who could potentially cause Team USA some trouble but if Team USA plays excellent pressure defense then it will not be easy for opposing teams to feed the ball into the post. The big key is for Team USA to guard the three point shooters without giving up layups. Team USA limited France to 2-22 three point shooting (.091) without giving up much inside except for a few hoops by Traore. Team USA does not need more pure shooters on the roster nor is it even essential to have more true big men, though the mobility of Dwight Howard and especially Chris Bosh would obviously have been useful; Chandler will play 10-20 mpg as the primary defender against the opposing team's top big man and Kevin Love will get some spot minutes but Team USA's best lineup will use James and Durant as the de facto center/power forward duo--and the NBA's two best players are more than capable not only of holding their own defensively against FIBA big men but also posing matchup nightmares at the other end of the court. It is odd that people who are so concerned about how Team USA will match up inside defensively fail to consider that guys like Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Luis Scola, Nene and Anderson Varejao will also have to chase Durant and James around at the other end of the court.

Team USA is built for speed, versatility and pressure defense, qualities that will serve them well in FIBA play. The other element that has finally been present in Team USA's program over the past few years is continuity; Team USA will probably never have quite the level of continuity that the other top national teams possess but at least Team USA now has a sufficient level of continuity to successfully compete against the world's elite. That continuity is reflected both in terms of the stability of the roster composition (including five players from the 2008 Olympic Championship team and five players from the 2010 FIBA World Championship team) and in terms of the familiarity that the players and the coaching staff have with the FIBA game.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:02 PM

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