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Sunday, August 12, 2012

Durant, James and Bryant Lead as Team USA Beats Spain in Gold Medal Game

Team USA's 107-100 victory over Spain in the Olympic gold medal game answered two questions; we now see the wisdom of how Jerry Colangelo constructed the U.S. roster--favoring talent, speed, quickness and depth over size--and we now understand why the Spanish players were confident about their gold medal chances prior to the Olympics: when the going got tough, Team USA used a small lineup to fend off a serious challenge from a Spanish team that not only kept the game competitive but had a realistic chance to win until the final moments, trailing by just six with 2:24 remaining.

Statistics from blowouts can be deceptive--Carmelo Anthony's record-setting 37 point explosion versus Nigeria was an extraordinary shooting exhibition but is not necessarily indicative of his true value--but one excellent way to determine how to rank players from the same team is to see who the coach trusts in a tight game. Kevin Durant played 38 out of 40 minutes versus Spain, Chris Paul played 33, LeBron James played 30 (and would have probably played about four more minutes if not for foul trouble), Kobe Bryant played 27, Carmelo Anthony played 21 and Kevin Love played 18. No one else from Team USA played more than 10 minutes. Durant scored a game-high 30 points and tied for game-high honors with nine rebounds. James once again filled up the stat sheet with 19 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals. Bryant finished with 17 points, two rebounds and two assists; he will turn 34 on August 23 and after the game he confirmed that this was his final appearance for Team USA. Bryant first joined the squad for the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship and the defensive presence that he and Jason Kidd provided in the backcourt helped to right the ship after Team USA suffered several embarrassing defeats earlier in the decade. Bryant went 26-0 as a member of Team USA (not counting exhibition play, during which he also did not lose a game), winning two Olympic gold medals (2008, 2012) in addition to the 2007 FIBA Americas Championship title. Paul's boxscore numbers (11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, two assists) do not completely reflect his impact on the game, particularly during the fourth quarter. Love added nine points and nine rebounds. Pau Gasol led Spain with 24 points on 9-17 field goal shooting and he also had eight rebounds and seven assists. Juan Carlos Navarro scored 21 points, Marc Gasol had 17 points on 8-10 field goal shooting in 17 foul-plagued minutes, Rudy Fernandez chipped in with 14 points and six rebounds and Serge Ibaka made his presence felt in the paint with 12 points and nine rebounds.

Anyone who thought that this would be smooth sailing for Team USA was not paying attention when Team USA barely defeated Lithuania in Group A play, let alone when Spain pushed Team USA to the limit in the 2008 Olympic gold medal game showdown. Team USA starting center Tyson Chandler scored the opening basket off of a nice feed from Bryant but that play was not at all indicative of how the game would go; Spain rarely made things that easy for Team USA at either end of the court and Chandler ended up with just two points and one rebound in nine minutes. Navarro answered with a four point play (Bryant fouled him on a made three pointer) and Spain utilized a 1-2-2 zone to entice Team USA to shoot jumpers and discourage Team USA from driving to the hoop. After Durant's three pointer put Team USA up 5-4, Spain went on an 8-2 run to build their biggest lead of the game; Navarro drilled two three pointers during that stretch--one after Durant sagged too far off of him and another after Spain collected two offensive rebounds to extend a possession--and Pau Gasol connected on a hook shot. Bryant responded with a three pointer and then Durant made two free throws after Calderon was called for an unsportsmanlike foul for flinging Durant to the ground as he drove to the hoop. Under FIBA rules, Team USA retained possession after the free throws and Bryant hit another three pointer to give Team USA a slim lead that they would retain until the second quarter.

NBC's Doug Collins offered this early take on the action: "The United States has been very soft defensively to start this game." In any form of competition, players and teams have to play to their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses; one of Team USA's big keys in FIBA play is to shut down opposing three point shooters without giving up easy layups: if the perimeter defenders can do that, few opposing players are going to be able to hurt Team USA by playing one on one in the paint regardless of the size of Team USA's players. The one thing that can cause Team USA problems is a squad that executes middle screen/roll plays effectively enough to consistently generate either wide open three pointers and/or layups when someone cuts to the hoop. Collins is correct that Team USA played "soft" defense for much of the first half, neither shutting down the paint completely nor keeping the three point shooters--particularly Navarro--under control.

NBC's basketball coverage during the Olympics was pretty good overall--with excellent analysis by both Doc Rivers during the studio shows and Collins during the games--but it was annoying and inexplicable that even though the games were presented with "limited commercial interruption" the viewers still missed snippets of the action because of those commercials; I'd rather have been subjected to more commercials but see the entire game than to have fewer commercials but miss what could turn out to be key plays. We never saw Pau Gasol's two free throws at the 3:09 mark of the first quarter or a replay of James' foul against him; it is possible to analyze the game without seeing those things but it would have made more sense for NBC to figure out how to squeeze the entire 40 minute game into their two hour or so broadcast window.

Team USA led 35-27 after the first quarter as Durant poured in 12 points--the 15th time during the Olympics that a Team USA player scored at least 10 points in a quarter--but Spain used a 14-2 run (starting late in the first quarter and then carrying over into the second quarter) to go back on top 39-37 after Sergio Rodriguez made a three pointer. Rodriguez and Chandler then each received a technical foul after Rodriguez elbowed Chandler while Chandler was setting a screen and the two players confronted each other. The teams traded the lead until Love hit a pair of free throws at the 5:29 mark to put Team USA ahead 48-44; Marc Gasol picked up his fourth foul on that play and sat out the remainder of the second quarter plus the entire third quarter. FIBA aficionados often brag about the strategic prowess of the FIBA coaches compared to NBA coaches but it was questionable--to say the least--to keep Gasol in the game after he had already picked up three fouls in the first half.

Even with Marc Gasol on the bench, though, Team USA could not create any separation and they only led 59-58 at halftime. Team USA relies on pressure defense to force turnovers and prevent opponents from getting open three point shots but in the first half each team only committed five turnovers, while Spain enjoyed a slight rebounding advantage (21-19) and shot 7-13 (.538) from three point range, a much higher percentage than Team USA should allow. Spain converted their extra possessions from the rebounding advantage/taking care of the ball into three point baskets.

With Marc Gasol out of the game and Team USA finally locking down the three point shooters, the third quarter became the Pau Gasol show: he scored Spain's first 13 points of the stanza and Spain took a 71-70 lead after his three point play. Team USA generated a mini 7-1 burst--a Bryant three pointer, a Durant jumper and two free throws by Bryant offset only by one Ibaka free throw--to go up 77-72 but when NBC returned from yet another "limited commercial interruption" Team USA led 80-76; yes, NBC abandoned a live telecast of the gold medal basketball game with the outcome very much in doubt during the second half in order to show viewers some commercials and this time viewers missed much more than just a couple of free throws. Pau Gasol scored 15 third quarter points overall but Durant countered with his second double digit quarter of the game (10 points) and Team USA owned a precarious 83-82 advantage heading into the final 10 minutes.

With the game on the line at the start of the fourth quarter, Coach Mike Krzyzewski went with a small lineup (small being a relative term but none of these players is considered a traditional power forward or center in the NBA): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony. That group pushed the one point lead to six before James had to sit out for 4:03 after picking up his fourth foul. Team USA maintained that six point spread with Kevin Love playing center while James was out of the game. Spain shifted to a box and one defense against Durant, quite a show of respect for Durant's skills considering the talent level of his teammates. Team USA briefly enjoyed a 10 point lead after Bryant secured an offensive rebound and made a short jumper but baskets by Navarro and Fernandez trimmed the margin back to 97-91 before James came into the game for Anthony (as usual, Anthony took a seat on the bench for Team USA in crunch time of a close game). James drove to the hoop and dunked with power to put Team USA up 99-91 and he answered Marc Gasol's basket with a three pointer to make the score 102-93 at the 1:59 mark. Paul drew a charging foul on Pau Gasol but James airballed a three pointer that could have sealed the win. Bryant extended the possession by retrieving the miss and throwing the ball out to Paul but Paul missed a three point heave with the shot clock about to expire. After Navarro missed a three pointer, Paul faked out Spain's defense and drove to the hoop for a layup that inspired Coach Krzyzewski to jump out of his seat and celebrate: Team USA led 104-93 with just :53 left. Marc Gasol then scored inside and Coach Krzyzewski made the perhaps premature decision to remove Durant, James and Bryant from the game with :37 remaining; in light of the sometimes bizarre FIBA officiating--on prime display during a game in which each team was whistled for 27 fouls, many of them involving slight, incidental contact--and Team USA's controversial 1972 loss to the Soviet Union, a 104-95 margin is not a 100% lock. Sure enough, Paul split a pair of free throws and Marc Gasol converted a three point play to cut the lead to 105-98 with :19 remaining. Then James Harden split his pair of free throws and Marc Gasol's layup made it a two possession game with :13 left. Collins tried to allay any fears by saying that all Harden had to do was make one of his next two free throws but I cannot fathom why Coach Krzyzewski would take the slightest risk of losing the gold medal just to put a few reserves in the game and/or let his stars receive an ovation. Yes, Harden made one free throw to push the lead to 107-100 but what if he had missed them both and Spain hit a three pointer, stole the inbounds pass and hit another three pointer to force overtime? Admittedly, this is an unlikely scenario but stranger things have happened--and the point is that there is nothing to be gained by risking this at all. The game should have been played out to the very end, with the best players/best free throw shooters on the court--and I don't include Harden in that category on this team because he was cold after sitting out the whole game: the ball should have been in Durant's or Bryant's hands for those final free throws.

Team USA outscored Spain 24-18 in the fourth quarter, with Paul contributing eight points, James scoring seven, Bryant adding four, Durant hitting one three pointer and Harden shooting 2-4 from the foul line to stave off any potential comeback. The most important statistic is that Team USA limited Spain to 0-6 three point field goal shooting in the second half; Team USA controlled the three point shooters without getting dissected by cutters and that is consistently the recipe for Team USA to beat the better FIBA teams. Yes, Pau Gasol had an outstanding third quarter and a great game overall but no one player is going to single-handedly beat Team USA. Team USA strayed from their defensive principles in the first half--or, to give Spain credit, maybe it just is not possible anymore for an American team to lock down a top FIBA team for an entire 40 minute game--but in the second half they went with the small lineup for extended stretches and used their quickness to hold Spain to 42 points, a significant improvement after giving up 58 points in the first 20 minutes.

Despite the slightly disorganized conclusion to the game, this was an excellent win for Team USA against a very tough opponent. Team USA went 8-0 during the Olympics and it is important to keep in mind that, based on expectations, Team USA must win every game, while Spain faced little or no criticism for losing two preliminary round games prior to the gold medal contest. Team USA's players and coaching staff deserve praise for their long term commitment to return the United States to the top of the basketball world and wipe out the dreadful memories of the dreary, listless performances by Team USA in FIBA events from 2002-2006.

Kevin Durant scored 156 points in eight games (19.5 ppg) during the Olympics, breaking Spencer Haywood's 1968 Team USA record (145); Charles Barkley is third on that list with 144 points (1992). Durant also ranked second on the team in rebounding (5.8 rpg) and steals (1.6 spg) and fourth in assists (2.6 apg). Kevin Love led Team USA in rebounding (7.6 rpg) despite only ranking seventh in minutes played; he padded those rebounding numbers a bit in garbage time but he also played some meaningful minutes, most notably against Spain in the gold medal game. LeBron James paced Team USA in assists (5.6 apg) and shot .603 from the field, second best (to Love's .630) among the nine players who attempted at least four shots per game. Chris Paul led Team USA in steals (2.5 spg) and ranked second in assists (5.1 apg). Thanks mainly to his explosion versus Nigeria, Carmelo Anthony finished second in scoring (16.3 ppg) even though he was often on the bench when the score was close. Kobe Bryant seemed to pace himself offensively during Group A play but he still ranked fourth on the team in scoring overall (12.1 ppg) and he increased his scoring during the three potential elimination games (16.7 ppg, including a team-high 20 points against Australia).

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:15 PM

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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Team USA Wears Down Argentina to Reach Gold Medal Game

Argentina again battled Team USA very hard for the first half but ultimately Team USA wore down their proud and gritty rivals; Team USA's 109-83 victory sets up a rematch of their 2008 Olympic gold medal victory against Spain. Kevin Durant led Team USA with a game-high 19 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, adding four rebounds and two blocked shots. LeBron James again showcased his all-around skills, contributing 18 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Carmelo Anthony scored 18 points with six rebounds and three assists. Kobe Bryant contributed 13 points and four rebounds in just 19 minutes, while Kevin Love produced nine points and a game-high nine rebounds in only 16 minutes. Manu Ginobili paced Argentina with 18 points, while Carlos Delfino and Luis Scola had 15 points each. Team USA only forced 11 turnovers as Argentina reacted well to Team USA's pressure defense but Team USA created many extra possessions because of their 46-29 rebounding advantage.

Team USA beat Argentina 126-97 in Group A preliminary round play but Argentina only trailed 60-59 at halftime in that game and the semifinal round matchup on Friday followed a similar course. Scola opened the scoring with a jumper and he answered Bryant's three pointer with a jump hook to put Argentina up 4-3. Bryant responded with a driving, two hand reverse layup/almost dunk that gave Team USA the lead for good but the score was competitive well into the third quarter. Bryant exploded for 11 first quarter points as Team USA jumped on top 18-6 and seemed to be on the verge of breaking the game open but Argentina countered with a quick 9-0 run. Team USA only led 24-19 at the end of the first quarter.

The second quarter repeated that pattern; Team USA pushed the margin to 41-29 but Argentina struck back to trim the difference to seven, 47-40, by halftime. Delfino led Argentina with 13 first half points and NBC's Doug Collins explained how he scored most of them: Argentina's half court offense is based on using a middle screen/roll action to either create a layup for the screener (who "slips" the screen and cuts to the hoop instead of standing firm and making contact) or if the defense rotates to the screener (Scola in most cases) then he passes to the weak side corner for a wide open three pointer. Team USA consistently has trouble defending that kind of action and that is why some of the better FIBA teams can stay close for a while--but what eventually makes the difference is Team USA's depth; opposing teams either have to run their starters into the ground or else bring in reserve players who are not nearly as good: either way, the opposing team runs out of gas at some point in the second half. This is what will most likely happen in the gold medal game on Sunday, the main question being how long can Spain keep the game close; Spain's best chance to pull off the upset is to stay within striking distance until the last five minutes and hope that Team USA hits a dry spell.

Ginobili's three pointer brought Argentina to within 47-43 early in the third quarter and Team USA only led 59-51 after Ginobili scored a layup on a nice inbounds play but Team USA closed the stanza with a 15-6 run that included back to back three pointers by Durant--who had 12 points on four three pointers during the third quarter--and seven points by James. Team USA completely shut the door with a 9-0 run to open the fourth quarter, punctuated by an Anthony three pointer. Anthony later made three straight three pointers to extend the lead to 93-64; he was the third different Team USA player to score at least 10 points in a quarter in this game.

Team USA's excellent three point shooting during the Olympics has turned a lot of heads but it should be noted that the numbers are a bit skewed by blowouts against inferior teams and by garbage time minutes when good teams conceded defeat, thus enabling Team USA reserves to pad their stats; the biggest key for Team USA is pressure defense, because this not only can create easy baskets but is also wears down Team USA's opponents: Argentina never succumbed to the pressure in terms of committing a lot of turnovers but the pressure nevertheless took its toll on Argentina's starters. During the postgame show, Doc Rivers praised the defensive versatility of James and Bryant, noting that the skills of those two players enable Team USA to effectively utilize a small lineup; starting center Tyson Chandler had just four points and three rebounds in 12 minutes: while many pundits declared that Team USA is too small, I have consistently said that Team USA is built for speed, not size, and that any time Team USA is challenged at all Coach Krzyzewski's response will be to pull Chandler and go small.

The final test for that theory will be the gold medal game against Spain, a team that features a huge frontcourt with Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka. From a size standpoint, Team USA cannot match up with those guys--but Spain's bigs will also have to guard LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony, while Spain's perimeter players will have to contend with Bryant, Chris Paul and Deron Williams (Russell Westbrook might miss the game after spraining his ankle versus Argentina). Spain has the necessary talent, guile and toughness to make the gold medal game interesting for the better part of the 40 minute contest but Team USA should prevail--though it may take a great fourth quarter performance by James, Durant or Bryant to seal the deal.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM

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Thursday, August 09, 2012

Bryant Emerges from Shooting Slump and James Has Historic Triple Double as Team USA Beats Australia

Team USA overcame yet another somewhat sluggish start to defeat Australia 119-86 in the quarterfinal round; this is the elimination stage of the Olympics and Team USA will face Argentina on Friday for the opportunity to play Russia or Spain in the gold medal game on Sunday. Kobe Bryant bounced back from a scoreless first half to score 20 points in the second half--and 12 of those points came in an outburst of four three pointers in 67 seconds during the fourth quarter, sealing the win by pushing Team USA's lead from 93-78 to 105-80 at the 4:43 mark. Bryant achieved his team-high point total on 6-14 field goal shooting after shooting just 14-36 from the field in Group A play. He also had three assists, tying for second best on Team USA, and he was an important presence defensively.

After the game, Coach Mike Krzyzewski effusively praised Bryant: "Not many people have achieved the excellence that he has, there are only a few. They take responsibility; they don't make excuses...he is one of the top-10 players of all-time, maybe one of the top-5 players of all time. He just keeps working. You would be amazed at the preparation he puts in for a contest and you just have to stick with him because he has produced five NBA championships and an Olympic gold medal for us and tonight he really broke out of his scoring slump. I like the fact that they (Australia) have great camaraderie but we do too. The way his teammates really went up for him and one of the great plays was when LeBron hit him in the corner with a rhythm pass and helping him get off. When he stole the ball a couple times, instead of going for layups the bench was saying 'shoot it again!' They have seen him do that. So I love that he has that support from his teammates."

While Bryant elevated his personal level of play, LeBron James demonstrated once again why he must be considered the best player in the world. James notched the first triple double in U.S. Olympic basketball history (assists have only been officially tracked in the Olympics since 1976, so we do not know if Oscar Robertson, Jerry West or someone else had a triple double before that year): James tallied 11 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists, tying the U.S. Olympic single game record for assists also held by Phil Ford, Leon Wood and Michael Jordan. James is Team USA's best player, followed closely by Kevin Durant (who finished with 14 points and five rebounds). Bryant is number three--both on this team and in the NBA overall--but his propensity to rise to the occasion in clutch situations and his ability to impact a game at both ends of the court make him a crucial member of Team USA's roster even if his statistical imprint has at times been negligible. Deron Williams led Team USA with 13 first half points and he finished with 18 points, second only to Bryant. Carmelo Anthony (17 points) and Kevin Love (10 points, 11 rebounds) were the other double figure scorers for Team USA.

Patty Mills scored a game-high 26 points for Australia. He is the prototypical FIBA guard that gives Team USA fits: he is tough-minded, he can hit the three (he shot 4-9 from long distance versus Team USA) and he can drive to the hoop in the screen/roll game. Joe Ingles added 19 points and a team-high eight rebounds; it is worth noting that--even though Team USA's starting center Tyson Chandler had only two rebounds in just nine minutes--Team USA outrebounded Australia 52-42.

Australia took an early 8-5 lead after Mills drained his first two three pointers but Team USA eventually settled in defensively to go up 28-21 by the end of the first quarter. Team USA's defensive execution was also spotty at times in the second quarter but Deron Williams erupted for 11 points to help Team USA push the margin to 56-42 by halftime. Australia opened the third quarter with an 11-0 run and Team USA once again faced a competitive game in the second half, just like the previous contests versus Argentina and Lithuania. Bryant assisted on a three pointer by Durant and he tossed a lob to Chandler for an emphatic two handed dunk to give Team USA some breathing room and he later scored eight points in two minutes during a 9-2 run that gave Team USA a 70-58 lead. Australia hung tough the rest of the quarter and still were within striking distance (84-70) entering the fourth quarter.

The margin stayed around the 15 point range until Bryant's barrage of three pointers ended all resistance. Not long after that, Bryant and James headed to the bench, their work over for the night.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

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Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Team USA's Depth Overwhelms Argentina

Team USA finished with a 5-0 record in Group A play after routing Argentina 126-97 but, for the second game in a row, Team USA faced a serious challenge in the early going before using their speed, defensive pressure and depth to eventually prevail. Argentina also battled very hard against Team USA during Team USA's pre-Olympic exhibition tour, so Argentina's competitiveness in the first half was less surprising than Lithuania's ability to stay close with Team USA for the entire 40 minutes. Kevin Durant led Team USA with a game-high 28 points. He shot 9-12 from the field, including 8-10 from three point range, and he also had four rebounds and four assists. Chris Paul had an outstanding all-around game: 17 points on 6-7 field goal shooting, seven assists and no turnovers. LeBron James contributed 18 points and five assists despite being limited to 22 minutes because of foul trouble. Reserves Kevin Love and Andre Iguodala each finished with 13 points and nine rebounds. Kobe Bryant continued to struggle with his shot but he inched into double figures with 11 points and he remains a strong presence on defense. Carmelo Anthony scored just five points on 1-6 field goal shooting and since his primary value is his ability to score Coach Mike Krzyzewski only used Anthony for 12 minutes. Manu Ginobili paced a balanced Argentina attack with 16 points, six assists and five rebounds. Five of his teammates scored between 11 and 13 points, led by Carlos Delfino (13 points) and Andres Nocioni (12 points). Facundo Campazzo had eight points and seven assists in a game-high 37 minutes as he had to play virtually the entire game because starting point guard Pablo Prigioni sat out due to kidney stones.

Team USA jumped out to a 14-8 first quarter lead but Argentina answered with a 7-0 run keyed by five points by Ginobili. Team USA then responded with an 8-2 burst but Team USA could never get much separation throughout the first half and even trailed again on several occasions. Argentina would have won the first quarter if not for a buzzer beating three pointer by Durant that made the score 34-32 in Team USA's favor. Team USA never led by more than six points during the second quarter and only had a 60-59 halftime edge but in the third quarter things quickly fell apart for Argentina as James scored seven points in a 12-5 run that foreshadowed the 12-2 run that essentially ended the game; that second streak featured eight points by Durant, concluding with his back to back three pointers. By the end of the third quarter, Team USA had cruised to a 102-76 lead and they were content to essentially match baskets with Argentina during garbage time in the fourth quarter. The tide turned because a fresh, deep Team USA squad shut down Argentina's fatigued starters and then capitalized by either scoring in transition or else creating good shots in the half court offense with crisp ball movement as Argentina's defensive rotations became less precise.

FIBA teams that have some NBA talent on their rosters and the right game plan are capable of challenging Team USA for extended stretches but Team USA's depth--including a trio of MVP caliber wings (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant), an armada of All-NBA caliber point guards (Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Russell Westbrook), plus several other All-Stars--is very daunting to face even in a 40 minute game that is eight minutes shorter than an NBA contest. The overall team statistics in blowouts featuring extensive garbage time are often skewed but the consistent pattern we have seen is that Team USA starts slowly--forcing jump shots and playing spotty defense--while their opponents are fired up and efficient in the early going, using screen/roll actions to create open shots while packing the paint on defense and enticing Team USA to shoot long jumpers. Eventually, Team USA either wears down the opposing team's starters or else exploits their inferior bench players to break the game open by clamping down on defense and scoring in transition; Team USA's three pointers that come in transition or as a result of drive/kick plays are good, rhythm shots--Team USA needs to refrain from taking contested three pointers early in the shot clock with little or no ball movement. Despite the gaudy shooting numbers that Team USA has posted in the Olympics, including a .458 three point percentage, Team USA's foundation is the pressure defense that creates open shots.

Durant led Team USA in scoring during Group A play (18.6 ppg), Kevin Love topped the squad in rebounding (6.4 rpg) and Chris Paul averaged a team-high 5.8 apg. Team USA's next game on Wednesday is a quarterfinal round elimination showdown versus Australia, which finished with a 3-2 record in Group B.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 AM

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Sunday, August 05, 2012

LeBron James Takes Over in the Clutch as Team USA Survives Major Scare Versus Lithuania

Lithuania outscored Team USA during the final three quarters and led 84-82 with 5:50 remaining in the game but LeBron James, Chris Paul and Deron Williams keyed a furious rally that enabled Team USA to pull out a 99-94 victory. Team USA improved to 4-0 in Group A competition, clinching the top seed in the quarterfinal round with one game remaining versus Argentina on Monday. James scored nine of his 20 points in the final 3:58. James shot 9-14 from the field overall and grabbed five rebounds in a team-high 35 minutes. He also had three steals and a blocked shot but did not register an assist. Carmelo Anthony tied James with 20 points but he did not play in the final 4:29; as I have repeatedly predicted, when Team USA faced the realistic possibility of losing a game Coach Mike Krzyzewski benched starting center Tyson Chandler (who had just one point and one rebound in eight minutes) and he benched Anthony--who can be instant offense for both teams--in favor of a small lineup featuring LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and two point guards. Chris Paul came up with several big plays down the stretch--including a few deflections and an offensive rebound that led to a Deron Williams trey that put Team USA up 95-88 with 2:49 remaining--and he had a greater impact on the outcome than his boxscore statistics (seven points, team-high six assists, team-high four steals) suggest. Deron Williams finished with 12 points but shot just 4-12 from the field. Durant had 16 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, while Bryant struggled at both ends of the court, finishing with six points on 1-7 field goal shooting. Bryant made some good defensive plays but he also gave up some open shots with risky gambles and he forced a couple shots on offense when Team USA was struggling. Linas Kleiza led Lithuania with a game-high 25 points on 10-20 field goal shooting, former Duke point guard Martynas Pocius scored 14 points and dished off six assists and Darius Songaila contributed 11 points. Veteran Team USA killer Sarunas Jasikevicius added eight points and six assists; he and Pocius dissected Team USA on screen/roll plays throughout the game, hitting three pointers, making deft drives and passing to open cutters for layups.

The two main stories emerging from this game are (1) this is clearly and emphatically LeBron James' team and (2) Team USA is still potentially vulnerable against teams that pack the paint on defense and can efficiently execute screen/roll plays on offense. This game looked like a nightmare rerun of Team USA's 101-95 loss to Greece in the 2006 FIBA World Championship. In the 2008 Olympics, Team USA turned to Bryant to save the day when things got tough against Spain the gold medal game--and that made sense because Bryant was the best player in the league at the time. Bryant is still an All-NBA First Team caliber performer but James is the best player in the league and a champion and Team USA relied on James to take over at the end of the game.

Before the game, NBC's Doug Collins said that Team USA's coaching staff wanted the players to "ramp it up" and "force their will defensively." Neither of those things happened; Lithuania had an excellent game plan at both ends of the court and constantly had Team USA on their heels. The saving grace for Team USA--besides the aforementioned clutch individual plays made by James, Paul and Williams--is that Team USA forced 23 turnovers and generated a substantial part of their offense in transition. Team USA shot just 35-79 (.443) from the field and that number would have been much lower without those fast break points. Lithuania played a classic FIBA game against Team USA, shooting 38-65 (.585) from the field overall and 7-16 (.438) from three point range: their middle screen/roll play consistently produced layups and open three pointers.

Team USA opened the game with a 9-4 run but Bryant committed two quick fouls and had to sit out at the 8:16 mark of the first quarter. Team USA only outscored Lithuania 24-21 the rest of the quarter to lead 33-25 after the first 10 minutes. Team USA stretched that margin to 39-27 but Collins commented, "The Americans are not sharp here in this game." Lithuania deserves credit for how well they played but Team USA also made a lot of mental errors at both ends of the court; as NBC's Doc Rivers put it at halftime, Team USA played hard but they did not play smart.

Team USA led 55-51 at halftime but Lithuania quickly scored a Jonas Valanciunas layup and a Jasikevicius three pointer to go up 56-55. Team USA retaliated with a 7-0 run but Lithuania never folded mentally or physically, tying the score twice more during the quarter and only trailing 78-72 as the fourth quarter began.

Anyone who expected Team USA to use quickness and depth to outrun and wear down Lithuania was very disappointed; after Anthony opened the fourth quarter with a jumper to make the score 80-72, Lithuania went on a 10-0 run, causing Coach Krzyzewski to call just his second timeout of the Olympics. Soon after that he went with the lineup he trusts the most: Bryant, Durant, James, Paul and Williams. Team USA does not need more size or more three point shooters; the way to win in FIBA play is to fully utilize speed and quickness to shut down the screen/roll attack and to generate offense with crisp cutting and passing and that is what Team USA's prime quintet did in the final 4:29, led by James, Paul and Williams.

Lithuania is older and slower than they were when they were a top medal contender in FIBA events--they dropped to just 1-3 in Group A--but they have played Team USA tough for the past decade and they once again showed the blueprint to use against Team USA; it will be interesting to see if more talented teams like Argentina, Spain or Russia will be able to use that blueprint to upset Team USA.

What does Team USA need to do differently? Defensively, they need to stop switching so much; the perimeter players must fight through the screens and the weak side defenders must be active against cutters in the lane while also keeping an eye on anyone who is a three point threat. Offensively, Team USA must rely less on one on one play and three pointers taken early in the shot clock; Team USA should attack the hoop to score layups or create open three pointers on drive/kick plays. Collins said that Bryant is Team USA's best postup scorer with James and Anthony close behind but I think that at this stage of their respective careers James is now Team USA's best low post scorer provided that he is playing with the correct aggressive mindset. Anthony can score from just about anywhere but his defense is so bad that I would not trust him in a close game--and, judging from his late game lineup, Coach Krzyzewski shares those concerns.

Team USA is not as dominant as they looked against Nigeria nor are they quite as vulnerable as they looked against Lithuania; they are the clear gold medal favorite but they can be beaten if they are sloppy and if their opponent executes a Lithuania-style game plan for the entire 40 minutes.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 AM

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Thursday, August 02, 2012

Team USA Dominates Nigeria

Kobe Bryant made sure that Team USA did not get off to a slow start this time; he scored 14 points in the first 6:06 as Team USA led Nigeria from opening tip to final buzzer, winning 156-73 to improve to 3-0 in Group A and clinch a spot in the quarterfinal round--not that advancing was ever in doubt but now it is official, with the next step being to earn the top seed. Team USA set numerous records: they shattered Brazil's all-time Olympic record of 138 points (Team USA's previous all-time Olympic high was 133, while the 1992 Dream Team twice scored 127 points), they broke the Team USA mark for margin of victory in the Olympics (the old standard was 72, set in a 101-29 victory over Thailand in 1956) and their 14 first half three pointers alone were good enough to set a Team USA single game Olympic record. Team USA shot an astounding 29-46 (.630) from three point range overall. Bryant finished with 16 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in just 11 minutes; his early barrage included two three pointers and a reverse dunk after he stole the ball and drove full court. Carmelo Anthony took advantage of extensive garbage time to set the single game Team USA Olympic scoring record with 37 points on 13-16 shooting, including a blistering 10-12 from three point range. Russell Westbrook scored 21 points on 7-8 field goal shooting and he also contributed three steals plus two assists. Kevin Love added 15 points and six rebounds in a team-high 23 minutes, while Deron Williams had a double double (13 points, 11 assists). Kevin Durant finished with 14 points and six assists, while LeBron James had six points and five assists.

Nigeria has more NBA players than a casual American basketball fan might realize; Al-Farouq Aminu (seven points plus a team-high four assists) and Ike Diogu (27 points and seven rebounds, team-highs in both categories) were both NBA Lottery picks, while Olumide Oyedeji (0 points in just nine minutes) played 93 games for Seattle and Orlando from 2000-03.

This game is yet another example of how deceptive box score numbers can be; it would be easy to assume that Team USA beat Nigeria mainly because of their prolific three point shooting but the reality is that Team USA's superior athleticism silenced Nigeria's offense and also forced Nigeria to play a zone defense that conceded wide open jumpers that Team USA made with great regularity. However, the key for Team USA against the better FIBA teams will be to use pressure defense to shut down the perimeter game without giving up easy baskets in the paint; it is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers but when Team USA gets hot from three point range they are capable of blowing out any FIBA squad.

Neither Tunisia nor Nigeria had a realistic chance to beat Team USA but Team USA should have a higher internal standard than just winning: Team USA should play the right way at all times, sharing the ball on offense to create open shots and pressing all over the court on defense to force turnovers and bad shots. Team USA should never have trailed against Tunisia, let alone allow Tunisia to have a three point lead more than seven minutes into the first quarter. Team USA's dominating performance against Nigeria is a step in the right direction with just two more Group A games remaining before elimination play begins. Team USA will face Lithuania on Saturday and then conclude Group A play against Argentina on Monday.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:20 PM

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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Team USA Sleepwalks Early Before Routing Tunisia

Team USA defeated Tunisia 110-63 to become the only team with a 2-0 record in Group A but the final margin somewhat obscures how sloppily Team USA played for most of the first half, particularly their starting five. Team USA's bench players provided a huge energy burst and eventually blew the game open with a 25-3 run to begin the third quarter as Team USA's five starters watched from the bench. Individual and team statistics are inevitably somewhat deceptive during any game that features a significant amount of garbage time--and at least 15 of the 40 minutes of this contest largely consisted of Team USA players padding their stats with lob dunks and wide open three pointers--but, for the record, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Love led Team USA with 16 points apiece. Anthony shot 6-6 from the field, while Love shot 6-9 from the field. Kevin Durant, the most productive starter, added 13 points and a team-high 10 rebounds. Anthony Davis scored 12 points, 10 of them coming on dunks. Russell Westbrook scored 11 points and swiped two steals. LeBron James only had five points, four assists and two rebounds in 19 minutes, while Kobe Bryant scored four points and committed three fouls in a team-low nine minutes. Starting point guard Chris Paul played a team-high 25 minutes and only scored two points, though he did have a game-high seven assists. Macram Ben Romdhane led Tunisia in scoring (22 points), rebounds (11) and assists (4) in a game-high 36 minutes. Mohamed Hadidane scored 11 points--and the pronunciation of his last name brings to mind the classic Doug E. Fresh track "La Di Da Di," which I am sure that Kenny Smith would have pointed out if this game had been telecast on TNT. Marouan Kechrid drilled three first half three pointers, providing flashbacks of the little known guards who caused nightmares in Team USA's FIBA losses in the early/mid 2000s, but he did not score in the second half.

Tunisia is the only one of the 12 Olympic teams that does not have at least one player with NBA experience but they led Team USA 15-12 at the 2:39 mark of the first quarter; Coach Mike Krzyzewski took the unusual step of replacing all five starters at the same time, bringing in Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams. After the game, Coach Krzyzewski denied that there was any particular significance to the mass substitution, saying that he simply wanted to experiment with different lineups during this game, but even if that is the case he could not have been very happy with how Team USA played during the first seven minutes versus Tunisia. Team USA's starters shot 0-6 from the three point line and--more importantly--they not only gave up several wide open three pointers but they also twice allowed Tunisian players to drive coast to coast for layups, which is simply inexcusable considering Team USA's huge advantage in athleticism. Team USA's reserves immediately went on a 14-0 run spanning the end of the first quarter--Team USA led 21-15 after the first 10 minutes--and the early moments of the second quarter. The starters lacked defensive intensity and awareness but the reserves forced two shot clock violations with their relentless pressure against Tunisia's ballhandlers.

Team USA's starters gradually returned to action early in the second quarter but they still looked sluggish and Team USA only led 33-25 when Kobe Bryant picked up his third foul at the 5:26 mark. Bryant went to the bench at that point and did not play for the rest of the game; I think that Coach Krzyzewski is wisely saving his oldest--and most decorated--player for games against the tougher teams, particularly in the medal round. Team USA built a 46-33 halftime lead. Tunisia shot 7-16 (.438) from three point range in the first half, including a missed desperation heave just before the halftime buzzer. Team USA shot just 2-12 (.167) from long distance in the first half but the problem was not so much the shooting percentage as the kind of shots that Team USA took; NBC's Doug Collins repeatedly emphasized that Team USA should never take a bad or contested shot because if they patiently swing the ball then they should be able to get a wide open shot. Far too many of Team USA's first half shots were rushed, contested attempts.

At halftime, Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers--serving as an NBC basketball analyst during the Olympics--made an interesting point: bench players will almost always perform well in games that they expect that their team is going to easily win because they know beforehand that they will receive a lot of playing time. It should also be noted that it is human nature for the starters to be a bit lackadaisical in such situations--but it is still disappointing that the starting unit, led by the NBA's three best players (LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant), played so listlessly and inattentively. One might assume that Coach Krzyzewski read the team--or at least the starters--the riot act at halftime but, according to Bryant, that was not the case at all. After the game, someone asked Bryant about how Coach Krzyzewski reacted during halftime and Bryant replied, "He was fine. He was good. The point that I wanted to make is that we needed to adjust and that we needed to stop switching so much. In the first half we switched a lot and I think because of it our defense was a little softer and gave them a lot more space. In the second half we came out and put bodies on bodies and put a lot of pressure on them."

Before the third quarter began, NBC's Craig Sager mentioned that the coaching staff informed him that Team USA would fight through picks instead of switching; this proved to be very effective, limiting Tunisia to 2-10 three point shooting (.200) in the second half. The same reserve unit that played so well in the latter part of the first quarter and throughout the second quarter started the third quarter for Team USA. That group scored the first nine points of the quarter and was largely responsible for the 25-3 run that turned the game into a rout.

Glancing at the final boxscore without watching the game could give one an inaccurate picture of why the game was relatively close at halftime and why Team USA pulled away in the second half. Tunisia finished with a .346 three point percentage (9-26) while Team USA shot .400 (10-25) from behind the arc but this was very much a tale of two halves and a tale of Team USA defensive pressure/Team USA shot selection. In the first half, Team USA played far too softly on defense, enabling Tunisia to shoot uncontested three point shots; Team USA compounded that mistake by jacking up three pointers early in the shot clock instead of driving to the hoop, collapsing the defense and then either passing for a dunk or kicking the ball to a wide open shooter. Things completely changed in the second half: Team USA pressured Tunisia all over the court and did not give up many open shots, while on offense Team USA played with much more patience and discipline, only shooting three pointers in rhythm after good ball movement. Those distinctions can get lost in the shuffle if someone only examines the game statistically as opposed to actually watching the game analytically and that is why I have consistently criticized the "stat gurus" who assert that it is not necessary--or even beneficial--to watch a game because the numbers tell the whole story. The numbers provide an outline but the complete story can only be written by someone who knows and understands the plot, someone who actually watched the story unfold.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:48 PM

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Sunday, July 29, 2012

Team USA Opens Olympics With 98-71 Win Over France

Team USA cruised to a 1-0 record in preliminary round play with a 98-71 victory over a French team that features eight players with NBA experience, including 2007 NBA Finals MVP Tony Parker. Team USA will play four more games in Group A; these are not elimination games but the top four teams from each group of six will advance to the "win or go home" quarterfinal round. Kevin Durant led Team USA with 22 points and he was one of three American players who grabbed nine rebounds. Kevin Love provided a nice spark off of the bench with 14 points, while Kobe Bryant was the only other Team USA player who scored in double figures--10 points in just 12 minutes of playing time as Team USA Coach Mike Krzyzewski wisely saved Bryant for some of the tougher games ahead in the Olympic format of one game every other day. LeBron James contributed nine points, a game-high eight assists, five rebounds and the highlight of the game: a two-handed over the head bounce pass that nearly traveled the length of the court before Durant caught it, resulting in a three point play to give Team USA an 11-5 lead. Tyson Chandler added eight points and nine rebounds in just 11 minutes, while Carmelo Anthony had nine points and nine rebounds but shot just 3-10 from the field. Team USA only shot 31-72 from the field (.431) but they forced 18 turnovers, outrebounded France 56-40 and held France to 26-66 field goal shooting (.394). Pressure defense and activity on the glass by Team USA's athletic wing players are more important for Team USA than their own field goal percentage, though of course it would be nice if Team USA played a bit more crisply at the offensive end of the court. Parker had just 10 points, one assist and four turnovers, perhaps hindered not just by the highly publicized injury that almost cost him the use of one eye but also because his recuperation from that injury limited his ability to train/stay in shape. Post player Ali Traore led France with 12 points.

Coach Krzyzewski went with a starting lineup of Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Tyson Chandler, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul; if/when things ever get tight for Team USA, expect to see Durant, James and Bryant on the court alongside one of the three point guards (Chris Paul, Deron Williams or Russell Westbrook) plus either Carmelo Anthony for offensive purposes (but only if Anthony improves his shot selection and field goal percentage) or Andre Iguodala for defensive purposes or possibly even a second point guard if Coach Krzyzewski wants to go really small. Team USA cannot go "big" and thus I suspect that Chandler and Love will not play heavy minutes in any competitive games, though they will be productive rebounders on a per minute basis; Team USA's strength is their combination of speed and depth, which enables them to keep playing at a fast tempo no matter which point guards or wings are in the game (though of course everything looks better when the wings are Durant, James and Bryant).

Team USA's starters took an early 13-7 lead but the first quarter featured some "disjointed" play (in the words of NBC commentator/Philadelphia 76ers Coach Doug Collins) with a lot of fouls being called against both teams and some Team USA players occasionally breaking the offense to go one on one; Collins declared that Team USA has so much talent that there is no reason for the squad to ever force a shot: just keep the ball moving and someone will get a good open look. After Team USA's reserves entered the game, France cut the margin to 22-21 by the end of the first quarter.

Team USA missed their first six three point shots but then James, Bryant and Paul each nailed a trey early in the second quarter to push the lead to 33-21 (Bryant also made two free throws during that 12-0 run). France fought back to cut the deficit to seven (33-26) but Team USA pulled away to a comfortable 52-36 halftime lead and France never mounted a serious threat the rest of the way; Team USA was ahead 78-51 by the end of the third quarter and the main fourth quarter drama consisted of Team USA trying to find a way to get Anthony Davis a basket (he eventually converted a Deron Williams lob from into a dunk).

As Team USA pulled away in the third quarter, Collins listed his four keys for Team USA to be successful in the Olympics (these keys will sound familiar to anyone who has followed 20 Second Timeout's coverage of Team USA's participation in FIBA events for the past several years, particularly my analysis of the reasons behind Team USA's FIBA losses from 2002-2006):

1) Pressure defense converted into points off of turnovers
2) Defend the three point line
3) Defensive rebounding
4) Depth

Yes, it is true that a few teams have post players who could potentially cause Team USA some trouble but if Team USA plays excellent pressure defense then it will not be easy for opposing teams to feed the ball into the post. The big key is for Team USA to guard the three point shooters without giving up layups. Team USA limited France to 2-22 three point shooting (.091) without giving up much inside except for a few hoops by Traore. Team USA does not need more pure shooters on the roster nor is it even essential to have more true big men, though the mobility of Dwight Howard and especially Chris Bosh would obviously have been useful; Chandler will play 10-20 mpg as the primary defender against the opposing team's top big man and Kevin Love will get some spot minutes but Team USA's best lineup will use James and Durant as the de facto center/power forward duo--and the NBA's two best players are more than capable not only of holding their own defensively against FIBA big men but also posing matchup nightmares at the other end of the court. It is odd that people who are so concerned about how Team USA will match up inside defensively fail to consider that guys like Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Luis Scola, Nene and Anderson Varejao will also have to chase Durant and James around at the other end of the court.

Team USA is built for speed, versatility and pressure defense, qualities that will serve them well in FIBA play. The other element that has finally been present in Team USA's program over the past few years is continuity; Team USA will probably never have quite the level of continuity that the other top national teams possess but at least Team USA now has a sufficient level of continuity to successfully compete against the world's elite. That continuity is reflected both in terms of the stability of the roster composition (including five players from the 2008 Olympic Championship team and five players from the 2010 FIBA World Championship team) and in terms of the familiarity that the players and the coaching staff have with the FIBA game.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:02 PM

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