Orlando Versus Boston Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#2 Orlando (59-23) vs. #4 Boston (50-32)
Season series: Orlando, 3-1
Boston can win if…Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace can guard Dwight Howard one on one in the post effectively enough that the Celtics do not have to trap Howard and go into full rotation versus Orlando's armada of three point shooters. Perkins has enough lower body strength to battle Howard for post position, while in previous years Wallace used his length, savvy and mobility to frustrate Howard at times.
Naturally, it will also be beneficial for the Celtics if Rajon Rondo can post what Cleveland's Shaquille O'Neal termed "historical triple doubles." Paul Pierce and Ray Allen had some good moments versus the Cavs but were not hugely productive overall; the Celtics will need to get more out of both future Hall of Famers in order to dethrone the reigning Eastern Conference Champion Magic. Kevin Garnett still seems to be dragging his right leg defensively but he has regained enough lift to once again be effective in the post as a turnaround jump shooter and the Celtics will need for him to average at least 15 ppg with a decent shooting percentage in order to beat the Magic.
Orlando will win because…the Magic are talented, deep, defensive-minded, unselfish and focused--which is not to say that the Celtics do not also possess many of those qualities but the Magic have them in abundance. While I do think that the Celtics are better equipped--both from a personnel standpoint and schematically--to guard Howard than many other teams, the Magic are an excellent passing team loaded with great shooters, so the Celtics will have their hands full. The Celtics were a below average rebounding team during the regular season, they struggled at times at home and they gave up a lot of leads; Cleveland did not exploit any of those tendencies in the previous round but Orlando is likely to take advantage of Boston's weaknesses.
This is Vince Carter's opportunity to change some of the negative aspects of his reputation by playing a key role on a team that advances to the NBA Finals and, possibly, wins a championship; his matchup versus Ray Allen should be very interesting to watch, as either player could very well be called upon to hit a game-winning shot during this series. I think that Carter has more bounce left in his legs than a lot of people realize and that he will have a good series, though because of Orlando's balance his overall numbers may not be eye-popping.
Other things to consider: The Celtics just took out the number one overall seed in this year's playoffs. Rondo is emerging right before our eyes as a top five point guard, while Kevin Garnett had a greater impact versus the Cavs than anyone could have reasonably expected based on how he looked during the regular season. The Celtics are a former champion who should not be taken lightly and they did push Orlando to seven games last season despite being without the services of Garnett--but the Magic were also shorthanded due to Jameer Nelson's injury and the Magic have upgraded their roster since last season, adding Carter, Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass.
Did the Celtics really rejuvenate themselves versus Cleveland or did the Cavs just follow the lead of their superstar and quit when things got tough? With all due respect to Boston--and I have a lot of respect for the Celtics--I think that the latter had more to do with the result of the Boston-Cleveland series than the former. The Celtics will play hard versus the Magic and each game will likely be very closely contested but I expect that Orlando will win in fewer than seven games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Garnett, Orlando Magic, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Vince Carter
posted by David Friedman @ 3:36 AM
Brilliant Bryant Shreds Magic as Lakers Roll, 100-75
"You look thirsty, you ain't getting
no mercy, mercy/
And ain't no way that you can rehearse for me/
Murder I wrote, murder I wrote is what I figure...
When it comes to this I never smile."--L.L. Cool J, "How I'm Comin'"
Kobe Bryant may not be smiling but L.A. Lakers' fans are wearing ear to ear grins after Bryant led the Lakers to a 100-75 victory over the Orlando Magic in game one of the Finals by producing a nearly perfect game: 40 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, two steals, two blocked shots, one turnover in 38 minutes. He single-handedly outscored Orlando's three primary offensive weapons--Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu--and scored or assisted on 24 of the Lakers' 41 field goals; the entire Magic team made just 23 field goals. ABC commentator Jeff Van Gundy--who must have had his heart in his throat watching Bryant trash the team that his brother Stan coaches--declared, "You know how they say one man can't beat a team? I beg to differ. One man can beat a team. This guy has dominated each offensive possession." Bryant shot 16-34 from the field (.471), which is marginally better than his regular season field goal percentage (.467), but what matters most is that he shot 15-27 and did not have a single turnover in the game's first 34:46 as the Lakers built an 80-56 lead; when I say that Bryant was "nearly perfect" I am referring to his decision making and the control that he exerted over the game: Larry Bird once said that he did not play basketball to score a certain number of points or make every shot but rather for those moments when he took over the game and knew that he was controlling the outcome. That is what Bryant did in game one and this is very significant because game one winners overwhelmingly tend to eventually win the playoff series, as Bryant knows only too well: the last two times he and the Lakers went to the Finals they lost game one and then lost the series. However, Bryant also understands that even though history is on the Lakers' side this is still just one win and the Lakers must continue to play hard and execute at a high level or the Magic could win game two, seize homecourt advantage and gain the opportunity to win a championship by sweeping the middle three games in Orlando. A stern-faced Bryant declared in his postgame press conference that the best thing that the Lakers could do now is forget about this game and focus on taking care of business in game two and he added that he had already delivered that message to his teammates.
Bryant cracked a smile briefly when he said that his kids have been calling him "Grumpy" from the Seven Dwarves for the past week or so but then he looked serious again during the rest of the question and answer session. Bryant's visage has been getting a lot of attention recently but instead of focusing on how he looks it is more important to place his performance--not just in this game but in the playoffs overall--in proper historical context: Bryant joined Jerry West, Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal as the only players to have a 40-8-8 game in the NBA Finals. This is the first time that Bryant scored 40 points in a Finals game but it is the 10th 40 point game of his playoff career and his fourth 40 point game of the 2009 playoffs, with the Lakers improving to 4-0 in those contests; the three previous 40 point games came in a must win game two versus Houston after the Lakers lost game one at home, game one versus Denver and game three at Denver to reclaim home court advantage in that series after the Lakers lost game two at home. Bryant is convincingly putting to rest
the nonsense about the Lakers being better off when he shoots less frequently.
However, as Jeff Van Gundy noted, Bryant is not only a dominant scorer; he also is creating open shot opportunities for his teammates and the remarkable thing about how Bryant is handling those twin responsibilities is that this is the eighth time in 19 playoff games that Bryant has had one or fewer turnovers, including back to back games against Houston--the team that supposedly
had used advanced basketball statistics to come up with the perfect game plan against him--in which he did not have a single turnover. Bryant had five other playoff games in which he only had two turnovers each. This is just incredible decision making/efficiency by a player whose team needs him to simultaneously fill the Michael Jordan scoring role and the Scottie Pippen playmaking role.
Bryant received help from his teammates but considering his deft passing and the way that he draws double teams it must be said that he is helping his teammates to help him: Bryant creates open shots for them and they knock those shots down. Pau Gasol had 16 points and eight rebounds and Lamar Odom produced 11 points and 14 rebounds off of the bench. Andrew Bynum had nine points and nine rebounds but, more significantly, he made his presence felt in the paint versus Dwight Howard. Bynum collected four fouls in 22 minutes but, as I said in my
Finals preview, foul trouble is not a factor for Bynum as long as he is productive in the 15-20 mpg that the Lakers need for him to play. Derek Fisher and Luke Walton each had nine points and combined to shoot 8-11 from the field, a welcome sight for the Lakers considering how much both players had been struggling with their shooting strokes.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers had the worst of both worlds defensively, as Dwight Howard put up big numbers--culminating in a 40 point, 14 rebound outing in game six--and the Magic's three point shooters bombed away with impunity; in game one of the Finals, the Lakers had the best of both worlds, shutting down both Howard and the three point shooters. Mickael Pietrus led the Magic with 14 points but he shot just 5-13 from the field, a percentage that the Lakers can live with every game. Hedo Turkoglu had just 13 points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Eastern Conference Finals hero Rashard Lewis scored just eight points on 2-10 field goal shooting. Howard added 12 points and 15 rebounds but he shot just 1-6 from the field; the Lakers prevented him from getting good post position and fouled him whenever he seemed poised to dunk the ball. The Lakers largely used one on one coverage versus Howard--enabling them to stay at home on the three point shooters--though they did often send a defender toward Howard once he put the ball on the floor; you may recall that this is exactly the strategy that
I said that the Cavs should have used in the Eastern Conference Finals.
In my Finals preview I wrote, "I don't think that the Magic will be able to contain the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll nearly as effectively as the Celtics did in the 2008 Finals. Even though the Magic won both meetings with the Lakers this season...the Magic struggled to prevent the Lakers from getting good, open shots out of that set, so look for the Lakers to feature it repeatedly." Early in the game the Lakers tenderized the Magic in the paint by posting up Bynum--who scored eight points in the first 6:30--but they took control of the game in the second and third quarters by repeatedly running the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll action (a Bryant-Bynum screen/roll also proved to be effective on a few occasions). Eventually the Magic are going to have to trap Bryant hard but that could lead to Bryant having 10-plus assists if his teammates make open shots.
Despite the strong start by Bynum, the Magic led 24-22 after the first quarter. Orlando's All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson returned to action for the first time since February, with mixed results: in his first stint he played well and helped the Magic to build a 33-28 lead early in the second quarter but in his second tour of duty later in the game he was not nearly as effective. Nelson finished with six points on 3-9 shooting plus four assists. It seems like he can hurt the Lakers with his passing in screen/roll situations but it may be too much to expect him to regain his shooting stroke in this series after being sidelined for so long.
Nelson and the Magic built their five point cushion with Bryant on the bench but when Bryant returned to action at the 8:32 mark of the second quarter the tide immediately turned: in less than five minutes, Bryant scored 10 points and had three assists as the Lakers went on a 19-6 run. Bryant then had 18 points in the third quarter as the Lakers turned the game into a rout.
Although a team's basic identity will not change during the course of a series, each game has a unique rhythm and vibe to it. Even if the Lakers continue to play good, sound defense it is extremely unlikely that they will again limit Howard to just one made field goal or hold the Magic to .299 field goal shooting, so the Lakers must continue to crash the boards--they enjoyed a 55-41 rebounding advantage--and execute their offense efficiently; their main edges in this series are Kobe Bryant and homecourt advantage, so it is important for them to be ready to win a tough game two before heading to Orlando: the worst mistake that the Lakers can make is to become overconfident and complacent because of the large game one victory margin.
Labels: Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic, Pau Gasol, Rashard Lewis
posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM
Los Angeles Versus Orlando Preview
NBA Finals
Los Angeles (65-17) vs. Orlando (59-23)
Season series: Orlando, 2-0
Orlando can win if…they establish Dwight Howard in the post as a consistent 20-plus ppg threat while also making 9-10 three pointers a game with a three point shooting percentage around the .380-.400 range. Against the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals the Magic had wonderful ball movement that generally resulted in an open three point shot for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu or Mickael Pietrus. They must continue to pass and shoot that effectively in order to beat the Lakers. Defensively, the Magic would like to hold Kobe Bryant to below .450 field goal shooting without allowing too many open shots for his teammates.
Los Angeles will win because…the Lakers will be able to single cover Howard in the post for key stretches, limiting Orlando's ability to go on huge scoring runs fueled by three pointers. The Lakers will put more pressure on Lewis, Turkoglu and Pietrus than the Cavs did, forcing them to either shoot contested jumpers or else put the ball on the floor and make plays. The Magic will have trouble containing Bryant, who is likely to post the highest Finals scoring average of his career, surpassing the 26.8 ppg he scored in the Lakers' 2002 sweep of the New Jersey Nets.
Other things to consider: Last year I picked the Lakers to beat the Celtics in the Finals not because I bought into all of the hype about how deep the Lakers supposedly were but because I did not think that the Celtics would have an effective answer for the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll play; that action was a major reason that the Lakers averaged 105.9 ppg on .478 field goal shooting while going 12-3 in the Western Conference playoffs in 2008 but the Celtics swarmed Bryant and forced his teammates to make plays, which they were not able to consistently do.
I don't think that the Magic will be able to contain the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll nearly as effectively as the Celtics did in the 2008 Finals. Even though the Magic won both meetings with the Lakers this season (see below for more details), the Magic struggled to prevent the Lakers from getting good, open shots out of that set, so look for the Lakers to feature it repeatedly. If the Magic respond by swarming Bryant--which they inevitably will have to do at some point--the onus will fall on Gasol to be aggressive while Lamar Odom dives strongly to the hoop from the weakside to either receive feeds for layups or crash the offensive boards and Derek Fisher, Trevor Ariza, Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar spot up behind the three point line: ironically, a key factor in this series could turn out to be whether or not the Lakers give the Magic a taste of their own medicine by bombarding them with three pointers.
Andrew Bynum will probably spend most of this series in foul trouble but that is not a problem because the Lakers only need to get a good 15-20 mpg out of him. The Lakers must limit Howard's catches in the paint, foul him whenever he is close enough to dunk and then force Howard to guard someone (either Gasol or Bynum) at the other end of the court.
A major X factor in this series is the possible return of Orlando's injured All-Star guard Jameer Nelson, who was expected to be out for the season after injuring his shoulder. Nelson has been working out with the team and there is some speculation that he might play in the Finals. I saw Nelson shooting around at Quicken Loans Arena prior to game five of the Eastern Conference Finals. I did not think that he looked particularly sharp but I have not seen him shoot around often enough to really know if he looked better or worse than normal; he seemed to be in excellent condition and was not noticeably favoring the injured shoulder. He wore a regular game uniform with a shooting shirt over his jersey.
The Magic beat the Lakers 2-0 in the regular season, much like they defeated the Cavs 2-1; I dismissed their record against Cleveland because Nelson played in one Orlando win and the other win took place with Cleveland on a long road trip while the Magic were well rested. Similar extenuating circumstances apply regarding Orlando's wins over the Lakers. The first time the Lakers played the Magic (December 20, 2008) they visited Orlando the night after losing in Miami; Bryant scored a then season-high 41 points but
the Magic won, 106-103. The Lakers kept Howard under control (18 points, 12 rebounds) but Nelson shot 11-16 from the field and torched them for 27 points. The Magic visited the Lakers on January 16, 2009; both teams were well rested and Nelson punished the Lakers with 28 points and eight assists in a 109-103 Magic win. Howard had 25 points and 20 rebounds but shot just 8-18 from the field and 9-16 on free throws. Bryant had the first of his two triple doubles this season (28 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists); he led the Lakers in all three categories by wide margins and he really played a marvelous game even though he ended up shooting 10-26 from the field--he shot 10-20 in the first 46:44 and 0-6 in the final 1:16 as the Lakers tried to mount a late rally. After that game, I
wrote, "Is it good to shoot 10-26 from the field or 0-6 in the last 1:16? Of course not--but a careful examination of those final six shots shows that Bryant made the right plays even though the shots did not go down." You can click on the link and read the rest of the post for a detailed breakdown of those late shot attempts but the point is that the Lakers were able to use the Bryant-Gasol screen/roll to repeatedly and quickly create high percentage shot opportunities, including a Bryant three pointer that went halfway down before coming out. The Magic had a lot of problems guarding Bryant in both games and the Lakers were in position to win on each occasion despite the trouble they had dealing with Nelson.
It may seem strange that I just
touted the beginning of the Dwight Howard era yet now I am picking the Lakers to beat the Magic but those are not mutually exclusive propositions; often a great player must first lose in the Finals before eventually triumphing: that was the case for Isiah Thomas, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O'Neal, three legends who lost in their first trip to the Finals but went on to win multiple championships. The Lakers have homecourt advantage and a hungry superstar with championship experience who presents a serious matchup problem for the Magic; those factors will be the primary reasons that the Lakers will prevail.
Labels: Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Rashard Lewis
posted by David Friedman @ 4:03 AM
Bosh Injury Opens Up All-Star Spot for Mo Williams
In a
post last week, I mentioned the possibility that unfortunate injuries might open a path to the All-Star Game for some "snubbed" players. Sure enough, Jameer Nelson went down with a shoulder injury and Ray Allen earned his ninth All-Star selection. Commissioner David Stern's choice of Allen rankled Cleveland fans, though, because they justifiably feel not only that the Cavaliers have played well enough to merit two All-Star selections but also that the acquisition of Mo Williams has significantly improved their team. I cannot say that Allen does not belong--he certainly has played well enough this season to be considered an All-Star--but
I thought that Williams should have made the roster even before anyone got hurt.Now, Chris Bosh's knee injury has sidelined him for the All-Star Game and Williams has been tapped to replace him on the All-Star roster. You hate to see anyone get injured but it is nice for Williams that he will get the opportunity to play in the All-Star Game for the first time in his career. Although Williams and Cavs fans may be disappointed by how this whole process played out, the reality is that he will go down in history as a 2009 All-Star; in the NBA Guide or the NBA Register, it will not say that Williams was an injury replacement, it will just say that he made the All-Star team.
Congratulations to Allen and Williams--and hopefully Nelson and Bosh will recover from their injuries as quickly as possible.
Labels: Chris Bosh, Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 3:36 AM
Point Guard Injuries Could Open Up All-Star Opportunities, Shift Balance of Power in the League
Monday night brought bad news to two of the NBA's top contenders, as Orlando's All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson dislocated his right shoulder and New Orleans' All-Star point guard Chris Paul strained his groin. Both players will undergo MRIs to determine the full extent of their injuries but early indications are that Nelson will be out for weeks. The Magic currently have the third best record in the East, while the Hornets are fifth in the West. Orlando enjoys a nine game lead over Atlanta, so the Magic can probably withstand the loss of Nelson--but if he is out for an extended period then they will not likely be able to fight for the top seed and they could potentially have trouble in their first round playoff matchup if he is out for the year. The Hornets are in even more dire straits if Paul will be sidelined for a while. Not only are they more dependent on him than the Magic are on Nelson but they are only three games ahead of ninth seeded Utah. Hopefully, both MRIs will show minimal damage and these two diminutive dynamos will return to action soon.
If Nelson and/or Paul are unable to participate in the All-Star Game then Commissioner David Stern will select their replacements (and West Coach Phil Jackson would have to name a new starter at point guard if Paul is out). Mo Williams and Ray Allen are two obvious candidates in the East; Allen made the team last year as an injury replacement and has arguably been the most consistent Celtic this season, while Williams is probably the consensus choice as the most worthy point guard in the East who did not get picked. Deron Williams has come on strong in the past month and would be the most deserving choice in the West if Stern elects to pick a point guard but if he simply decides to take the best "snubbed" player then Al Jefferson may get the nod; it is also certainly possible that Stern would choose Steve Nash, who would then get to play in the All-Star Game on his homecourt.
Labels: Chris Paul, Jameer Nelson, New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic
posted by David Friedman @ 11:46 AM
Should We Believe in Magic?
The L.A. Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic own the four best records in the NBA. It is easy to believe that the first three of those teams are legitimate championship contenders: the Lakers and Celtics battled each other in the 2008 NBA Finals, while the Cavs made it to the 2007 NBA Finals and have a better, deeper roster now than they did then. What about the Magic, though? Their record suggests that they have become championship contenders but is that really the case?
Here is an analysis of the Magic are performing better than they did last year--and what they need to do to truly establish themselves as a championship contender:It is easy to believe that the Boston Celtics, L.A. Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers are legitimate championship contenders; the Celtics and Lakers competed in last year's NBA Finals, while the Cavaliers made it to the Finals in 2007 and battled the Celtics for seven games in the 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals.
This season, those three teams have been in a tight race to finish with the league's best record but they have some unexpected company: the Orlando Magic. Why are the Magic doing so well this season and are they truly a championship contending team?
Last season, the Magic won their first division title since the lockout shortened 1999 season and had their first 50-plus win campaign (52-30) since the brief-lived Shaq-Penny era was in full effect (60-22 in 1995-96). The Magic ranked sixth in scoring (104.5 ppg) in 2007-08 and fifth in point differential (5.5 ppg); the Magic not only could score but they also did a reasonable job defensively, anchored by Dwight Howard's menacing presence in the paint. Their weakness was rebounding: even though Howard led the league in that category with a 14.2 rpg average, the Magic ranked just 17th in rebounding differential.
The Magic do not pair Howard with a true power forward; instead, the rest of their starting frontcourt consists of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, two versatile but slender 6-10 forwards who can shoot, pass and drive but are not dominant inside players.
This season, the Magic again rank among the league leaders in scoring (101.8 ppg, eighth) and point differential (8.1 ppg, fourth). Their rebounding differential has actually regressed slightly. So why is their record so much better? One big difference is that they are shooting three pointers even more prolifically than they did last season while also doing a better job of defending against the long ball.
TNT's Doug Collins often makes note of the differential between how many points a team scores on three point shots and how many points it gives up from behind the arc; this year, the Magic have made nearly twice as many three pointers as their opponents and that extra point per shot covers up a multitude of sins. A second big difference is that point guard Jameer Nelson has emerged as an All-Star caliber player, posting career-high numbers in scoring, field goal percentage, three point field goal percentage and free throw percentage.
This Magic team is constructed similarly to the Magic team that made it to the NBA Finals in 1995 and to the Houston teams that won championships in 1994 and 1995; all of those teams had a center who was dominant at both ends of the court flanked by several excellent three point shooters. If the center was single covered, he scored; if he was double covered, one of his teammates shot a wide open three pointer.
However, the 1994 Rockets and the 1995 Magic each had a power forward who did the dirty work in the paint (Otis Thorpe and Horace Grant, respectively); the 1995 Rockets used the versatile Robert Horry as the de facto power forward, trading away Thorpe's size/muscle for All-NBA swingman Clyde Drexler. The 1995 Magic also had an All-NBA swingman: Penny Hardaway, who made the All-NBA First Team that year, while O'Neal settled for a Second Team selection (people seem to forget that little detail when they act as if O'Neal simply carried Hardaway and the rest of the team-Hardaway's later injuries should not be used to obscure the fact that he was a top five player at one time).
The Magic do not currently have a power forward like Thorpe or Grant, nor do they have an All-NBA level swingman like Drexler or Hardaway. Therefore, it is reasonable to wonder how well they will perform in playoff games against elite teams when their three point shots are not falling and it becomes increasingly important to be able to control the boards.
Also, although Howard certainly provides a dominant presence in the paint, he is averaging 19.9 ppg on .559 field goal shooting-good numbers but not on par with O'Neal's 1995 production (29.3 ppg on .583 shooting) or Olajuwon's 1994 and 1995 outputs (27.3 ppg on .528 shooting and 27.8 ppg on .517 shooting respectively). During the postseason, O'Neal and Olajuwon would become almost unguardable for extended periods of time, O'Neal because of his great power and Olajuwon because of his amazing repertoire of low post moves. Howard has yet to show that he can carry a team offensively in that manner.
Orlando recently went out West and beat the three division leaders-Lakers, Spurs and Nuggets -- on their home courts. That is a most impressive accomplishment-but in order to face one of those teams (or someone else) in the NBA Finals the Magic will first have to make it out of the East. So far this season, the Celtics routed the Magic 107-88 in Boston on Dec. 1 and then beat them 90-80 in Orlando on Jan. 22.
In both of those games the Celtics outrebounded the Magic, contained their three point shooters and held Howard to fewer than 15 points. The Detroit Pistons beat the Magic 4-1 in last year's playoffs and are 1-0 against them this year; the Pistons have changed their head coach and point guard since last season but still seem to match up very well with Orlando. The Magic have yet to play the Cavaliers, but because of Cleveland's inside strength and good defense versus the three point shot the Magic do no match up well with the Cavs.
The Magic are playing very well overall but until they prove that they can beat Boston, Cleveland and Detroit it would not be accurate to label them a championship contending team; in order to make it to the NBA Finals they will have to beat at least one -- and possibly two -- of those teams in a seven game series.
Labels: Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic, Rashard Lewis
posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 AM
Lakers Lose Second Game in a Row Despite Bryant's Season-High 41 Points
After a 106-103 setback in Orlando on Saturday, the Lakers have now lost consecutive regular season games for the first time since last March. Kobe Bryant scored a season-high 41 points versus the Magic and tied for team-high honors with eight rebounds but his efforts were not enough to cancel out fine performances by Jameer Nelson (27 points, five assists), Rashard Lewis (22 points, five rebounds) and Dwight Howard (18 points, 12 rebounds); other than Derek Fisher, who scored 27 points (just two off of his regular season career-high), the rest of the Lakers were MIA, scoring just 35 points on 13-40 field goal shooting.
The Lakers have been called the deepest and most talented team in the NBA.
As I wrote in my article about the difference between talent and depth, the Lakers are certainly a deep team in terms of having 10 players who can competently play at least 10 mpg if necessary--though the same thing could also be said of the Cavs--but the Lakers do not have the same amount of talent contained on the rosters of previous teams that won 65-plus games (as the Lakers are on pace to do). The reality is that Kobe Bryant is the only Laker who is among the top 20 players in the NBA and the Lakers are more dependent on him for their success than many people are willing to acknowledge; there have been several games this year that the Lakers would have lost without clutch play by Bryant down the stretch, while Cleveland's LeBron James has been able to sit out entire fourth quarters and Boston's Big Three Plus Rondo take turns taking over games. Here are recaps of just a few of the games in which Bryant had to save the day:
Kobe Takes Over in Second Half, Lakers Topple BlazersLakers Edge Mavs, Improve to 6-0Lakers Slip Past Energetic KnicksLakers Coach Phil Jackson has been so dissatisfied with the play of his bench that recently he has shuffled his lineup, shortened the playing time of his reserve players and increased Bryant's minutes. Sometimes people superficially judge Bryant's playmaking prowess by his assist totals but that does not take into account three things: (1) Even when the Lakers are playing well, Bryant often makes the pass that sets up the assist (delivering the so-called "hockey assist") rather than directly feeding the player who scores; (2) players have to make shots in order for anyone to get credit for an assist, so many of the times that Bryant feeds teammates are not noted in the boxscore because they missed shots (or got fouled and went to the free throw line); (3) although it is often assumed that Bryant is a gunner who forces shots, the truth is that throughout his career there have been many times when Bryant tried to be a playmaker only to have his teammates pass the ball right back to him because they don't want to shoot (this happened a lot in the 2008 NBA Finals and the contested shots that Bryant was therefore forced to take with the shot clock winding down lowered his shooting percentage).
Issue number three was a major problem in the loss to Orlando but you don't have to take my word for it; here is what Coach Jackson said after the game: "
I was yelling at the guys, they kept giving the ball back to Kobe after he'd hit somebody in an open situation. He was dead-legged out there and really gave us a great effort for three quarters, but that fourth quarter, he was tired." After Bryant scored 25 first half points while carrying the Lakers to a 58-49 lead, the Magic quite logically sent multiple defenders at Bryant in the second half; unfortunately for the Lakers, Bryant's teammates proved to be unwilling or unable to take advantage of the wide open opportunities that Bryant's presence created.
The way things are going, even though the Lakers are clearly both deeper and more talented than they were in 2006 and 2007--which is actually not saying much when you recall that Kwame Brown, Smush Parker and Luke Walton frequently started for those teams--it seems that the Lakers will need Bryant to go on one of his patented scoring sprees in order to maintain possession of the top spot in the West; the other players simply are not getting the job done, at either end of the court--and in that regard it is worth mentioning that in addition to leading the Lakers in scoring and assists Bryant also takes the toughest perimeter defensive assignment on a nightly basis.
Labels: Derek Fisher, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Orlando Magic, Rashard Lewis
posted by David Friedman @ 5:47 AM
The Joy of Six: Detroit Advances to the Eastern Conference Finals Again
The Detroit Pistons beat the Orlando Magic 91-86 on Tuesday to win that series four games to one and thus advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth straight season. The Showtime Lakers from the 1980s are the most recent team to make it to the Conference Finals at least six years in a row (they did it from 1982-89), so this is quite an accomplishment for the Pistons. On the other hand, the Lakers did a much better job of taking advantage of those opportunities than the Pistons have: the Lakers made it to the Finals seven times and won four championships during their run while the Pistons have only made two Finals appearances and won just one title during their streak. Basically, the Pistons of the 2000s are like the Atlanta Braves of the 1990s: perennial playoff contenders who won one championship. That is nothing to sneeze at but--at least in the Pistons' case--it seems like a talented team that has good roster stability among its core players should probably have won more than a single title and I'm sure that the Pistons' management, coaches and players feel the same way.
Orlando was competitive with Detroit in every game except the first one and could very possibly have won game two on the road if not for a bizarre clock malfunction at the end of the third quarter that ended up costing the Magic three points in a contest that was a one possession game for most of the fourth quarter. That said, this could possibly have been a Detroit sweep if Pistons' All-Star point guard Chauncey Billups had not strained his right hamstring early in game three, Orlando's only victory. The Pistons won the final two games of the series despite being without the services of Billups, who will now get a few days to rest before Detroit plays the winner of the Boston-Cleveland series.
The two key factors in this series turned out to be Detroit's frontcourt depth and Orlando's poor offensive execution, particularly down the stretch in close games. Detroit used four bigs--Rasheed Wallace (34.0 mpg), Antonio McDyess (27.2 mpg), Jason Maxiell (21.0 mpg) and Theo Ratliff (11.8 mpg)--to match up with Dwight Howard, who is the only legitimate big on the Orlando roster and thus had to play a series-high 42.6 mpg. Despite playing five mpg more than he did in the regular season, Howard's numbers were down across the board as he averaged fewer points and rebounds than he did in the regular season and shot much worse from the field and the free throw line: he averaged 20.7 ppg and a league-best 14.2 rpg while shooting .599 from the field and .590 from the free throw line in the regular season but those numbers dipped to 15.2 ppg, 13.4 rpg, .509 field goal percentage and .513 free throw percentage versus Detroit. Orlando must acquire another power player who can give Howard some support in the paint offensively and defensively.
Orlando averaged 15.2 turnovers per game versus Detroit while only forcing 8.0 turnovers per game; in tennis it is called an unforced error if you just hit the ball into the net and the Magic had a lot of turnovers that could rightly be called "unforced errors." Other than the game one blowout, their losses were by seven, one and five, which means that those turnovers and the squandered possessions that they represent were fatal for Orlando. In general I don't rely much on the assist/turnover ratio statistic because not every good pass is logged as an assist and not every turnover stems from making a bad pass but Orlando had 76 assists and 76 turnovers in this series and it is hard to beat a good team with those kinds of numbers (Detroit had 90 assists and 40 turnovers). Jameer Nelson had an acceptable ratio of 23 assists and eight turnovers but 23 assists in five games is a low number for a starting point guard. Orlando's primary playmaker is Hedo Turkoglu and his assist/turnover ratio of 28/21 was very poor. Orlando's other starting forward, Rashard Lewis, had 12 assists and 17 turnovers, which obviously is a terrible ratio. Howard had one assist and 14 turnovers, while starting shooting guard Maurice Evans had four assists and six turnovers, so none of Orlando's starters distinguished themselves in this area. Orlando really needs to get a reliable ballhandler/playmaker who can dribble penetrate and create scoring opportunities for Howard in the paint and for Turkoglu, Lewis and Nelson on the perimeter. Perhaps Nelson will grow into this role but he really seems to be more of a scorer by nature.
The Pistons only shot .424 from the field versus the Magic and were outrebounded slightly but they shot a much higher percentage from the free throw line than the Magic did and they took advantage of the extra possessions that they had because of the favorable turnover differential. Young Rodney Stuckey filled in capably for Billups, while Richard Hamilton had a very strong series (23.6 ppg). The nagging question about the Pistons is the same one that has existed ever since the departure of Coach Larry Brown and defensive stalwart Ben Wallace: will Detroit be focused night in and night out? They dropped two games in the first round to a sub-.500 Philadelphia team and they could have easily lost some more games versus Orlando if the Magic had not been so careless with the basketball; neither Boston nor Cleveland turns the ball over the way that Orlando does, so if the Pistons sleepwalk when they face one of those teams and end up in close games down the stretch they will not be able to rely on their opponent simply self destructing.
Labels: Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton
posted by David Friedman @ 4:31 AM
