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Saturday, September 10, 2022

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2022 Class Includes NBA Players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili

This year's Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class includes 16 inductees: NBA players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili; NBA coach George Karl; NBA referee Hugh Evans; college coach Bob Huggins; WNBA players Swin Cash and Lindsay Whalen; WNBA coach Marianne Stanley; contributors Larry Costello and Del Harris; Theresa Shank-Gretz (selected by the Women's Veteran's Committee); international player Radivoc Korac; Wyatt "Sonny" Boswell, Inman Jackson, and Albert "Runt" Pullins (selected by the Early African Americans Pioneers Committee).

At 20 Second Timeout, I write primarily about professional basketball, so readers who are most interested in the NBA and the ABA may wonder why only three of the 16 inductees are entering the Hall of Fame based on their accomplishments as NBA players (Costello and Karl played in the NBA but are being inducted as a contributor and as a coach respectively). The answer is that the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame encompasses all levels and categories of the game, in contrast to, for example, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which focuses exclusively on professional football. It is reasonable to suggest that a new Hall of Fame should be created just for professional basketball, but the NBA is so embedded and intertwined with the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame that it seems unlikely that a separate Pro Basketball Hall of Fame will be created in the near future.

Tonight's Hall of Fame ceremony began with a tribute to Bill Russell, who passed away on July 31, 2022. Hall of Famers Jerry West and Alonzo Mourning spoke powerfully about Russell not only as an unparalleled champion on the court but as a human rights champion off of the court as well. After they spoke, the Hall of Fame showed a great video about Russell's life and career. The clip of Russell explaining to a reporter that his children had played with white children and no one had gotten hurt yet is both profound and infuriating: Russell spoke simply and directly, but what kind of racist idiot asks if children of different skin colors can play together?

Hall of Fame acceptance speeches are usually interesting and occasionally riveting, and that was true for this year's ceremony as well. I will focus on the inductees who have some connection to the NBA and/or ABA.

Hardaway was the first speaker of the evening after the Bill Russell tribute. Hardaway's presenters were Yolanda Griffith, Chris Mullin, Mitch Richmond, and Isiah Thomas. Nate Archibald was scheduled to be a presenter but was not able to attend. Hardaway called Thomas a "Chicago legend, my first basketball idol" and an inspiration. He also called Griffith a "Chicago hoops legend" who graduated from the same high school (Carver High School) and same class that he did. Hardaway said that his teammates Mullin and Richmond taught him how to be a pro and often asked him, "How great do you want to be?" Hardaway said that his parents' divorce when he was a child hit him very hard, and that it took him a while to adjust to that. He credited his mother for making a lot of sacrifices for him and for his brother Donald, who he called "my number one fan." Hardaway also thanked his father--"the man who introduced me to basketball"--and he thanked his three children, his wife Yolanda, his teammates, and the late Henry Thomas, who he described as not only his agent but also his confidante. He closed by declaring, "This is bigger than Tim Hardaway. This is for the south side of Chicago."

Hardaway averaged at least 20 ppg and at least 10 apg in the same season twice, and he is one of a select group of NBA point guards who had multiple seasons averaging at least 20 ppg and at least 10 apg. Oscar Robertson tops that list with five such seasons, followed by Isiah Thomas (four), Magic Johnson (three), and Kevin Johnson (three). Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook have each accomplished this twice as well. Hardaway made the 1990 All-Rookie First Team and then followed that with three straight All-Star selections before a knee injury forced him to miss the entire 1993-94 season. During that era, season-ending knee injuries often ended careers or at least severely curtailed them, but Hardaway made a remarkable comeback. He never averaged 20-10 again, but he had two more 20 ppg seasons, he made the All-Star team in 1997 and 1998, and he made the All-NBA First Team in 1997 plus the All-NBA Second Team in 1998 and 1999. 

Hardaway was the driving force for the Miami Heat team that reached the 1997 Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the Chicago Bulls. Hardaway will always be remembered for his trademark killer crossover move, also known as the "UTEP two-step"--and he did this move without traveling or carrying the ball, unlike many of the subsequent players who used the crossover move. Hardaway's crossover was low, tight, and fast, much like Isiah Thomas and Archie Clark before him. 

The next speaker after Hardaway was Del Harris, who is 85 years old and a bit hobbled from back surgery (he had surgery on Tuesday and was able to stand and give a speech tonight!). It is great to see him honored by the Hall of Fame at a time when he is still able to attend the ceremony. I interviewed Harris 17 years ago when he was an assistant coach with the Dallas Mavericks. Harris' presenters were John Calipari, Nancy Lieberman, and Sidney Moncrief. Harris opened by saying, "This is a message of gratitude, and all the glory to God." Harris thanked many mentors, including Tom Nissalke, who helped Harris become a coach first in the ABA and then in the NBA. Harris noted that he served 12 full seasons as an NBA coach and that eight of his assistant coaches became NBA coaches while two other assistant coaches became NBA general managers. He said that he learned a lot from the Hall of Fame players he coached "with"--and he emphasized "with"--while making special mention of the late Moses Malone. Harris also gave special thanks to Dr. James Naismith, who said that the purpose of basketball is, in Harris's words, "developing the spirit, mind, and body, in that order." Harris added, "Sometimes we focus too much on the body." Harris said that during his first coaching job at a junior high school "I found Naismith's purpose to have meaning for me in my life...and I decided that I was meant to be a coach."

Hugh Evans' widow spoke on his behalf in a recorded message. Evans lived long enough to celebrate the announcement of his induction, but passed away earlier this year. The best tribute to Evans is that when he was assigned to do a game everyone--fans, players, coaches, fellow referees--knew that he would perform at the highest level with no favoritism. I wish that could be said about all referees, but it was definitely true of Evans, who very much deserves this honor. Evans' presenters were George Gervin and Reggie Miller, two players who Evans once said inspired him to keep improving as a referee.

Lou Hudson's daughter Adrienne spoke on his behalf in a recorded message, and she also appeared in person alongside her father's presenters Jamaal Wilkes and Spencer Haywood. In her recorded message, she described this as a bittersweet moment because her father is not alive to receive this great honor. She noted that her father has previously been inducted in multiple Halls of Fame but that induction in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame was "an aspiration that he hoped to achieve in his lifetime." She provided some meaningful background not only about his basketball accomplishments (including leading Team USA to victory in the World University Games in 1965) but also his extensive involvement in his community and his devotion to his family.

Hudson played in the first of the two ABA-NBA All-Star Games. He made the All-Star team for six straight seasons (1969-74), and he averaged at least 21.9 ppg in each of those seasons. Hudson spent the first 11 seasons of his career with the Hawks--two years in St. Louis, followed by nine in Atlanta--before playing for the Lakers for his final two seasons. He averaged 21.3 ppg in nine playoff campaigns, including a league-leading 29.7 ppg in the 1973 playoffs. Hudson's 20.2 ppg career regular season scoring average ranks 65th in ABA/NBA history; more than 5000 players have appeared in at least one ABA or NBA regular season game, but just 70 of those players averaged at least 20 ppg while playing at least 400 games or scoring at least 10,000 points, and the vast majority of those 70 who are eligible for induction have already been inducted. Hudson retired in 1979 and passed away in 2014. When he retired in 1979, Hudson ranked 15th in NBA history with 17,940 career regular season points. It is difficult to understand why he had to wait so long to be recognized by the Hall of Fame.

Larry Costello made the All-Star team six times and he played for Philadelphia's dominant 1967 championship team before coaching Milwaukee to the 1971 NBA championship--but he was not inducted as either a player or as a coach, but rather as a contributor. Costello passed away in 2001 at the age of 70, so his four daughters accepted the honor on his behalf and each one spoke during a brief recorded message. They stated that they learned from their father to work hard, never quit, and never seek credit for what you are doing, because if you are doing well then you will be recognized--which is a bit ironic, considering that Costello did very well, did not seek credit, and thus was not inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame until more than 20 years after he died. His daughters mentioned that this induction was an honor that meant a lot to him, and that they wished he had lived long enough to see this day but they are grateful that he is being acknowledged now. Costello's Hall of Famer presenters were Billy Cunningham, Wayne Embry, and Bobby Dandridge.

George Karl was inducted as an NBA coach, but it is worth noting that he not only played in the ABA but he proudly identifies himself as an "ABA guy" who strongly believes that the ABA players and teams do not receive enough credit. During his induction speech, Karl said, "There is a fraternity of guys who still love the ABA to this day, and I am one of those guys."

His Hall of Fame presenters were Bobby Jones, Gary Payton, and Roy Williams. Karl said that Jones and Bob McAdoo were the two most talented players he played with at North Carolina, and that Jones is the greatest winner he has ever been associated with during his basketball career; there are good reasons that I dubbed Jones "The Ultimate Team Player." 

Karl said that the Basketball Hall of Fame should consider inducting great assistant coaches, and he mentioned Tim Grgurich as a candidate. Karl credited North Carolina coach Dean Smith with providing the "blueprint" for his coaching philosophy of respecting the game, sharing the ball, and playing the right way. Karl also singled out Bill Guthridge for inspiring and motivating him during his playing days at North Carolina. Karl, a throat cancer survivor whose voice is raspy, declared that he wants to give back to the game that has given him and his family such a wonderful life.

Ginobili was the night's final speaker. He was presented by Tim Duncan. Ginobili began by saying, "For players like me, individual accomplishments are team honors. I am not here because I was super special. I am here because I was part of two of the most important teams of the 2000s, with the Spurs winning four NBA championships, and with my Argentine National Team winning gold in '04." Ginobili hastened to add that he treasured his time with all of his teams throughout his career, and that he savors the memories not only of the big wins but also of the losses and the camaraderie forged among teammates during all of those battles. Ginobili described how he started playing basketball for several hours a day as a six or seven year old, and how he made friends while also honing his skills. He talked about playing for the Argentine National Team before playing as a professional in Europe starting at the age of 18. Ginobili said that he was shocked to find out that the San Antonio Spurs had drafted him, and he noted that his draft night experience did not involve getting a hat with a team logo before shaking the commissioner's hand. Ginobili became emotional when he asked for the audience's indulgence while he speaks briefly to his family in Spanish. After he finished speaking in Spanish, Ginobili spoke to his young sons in English, declaring that the moment he cherishes most in his life is right now being here with them.

I covered Ginobili in person as a journalist on more than one occasion, including game three of the 2007 NBA Finals, and game four of the 2007 NBA Finals. In game four, Ginobili poured in a game-high 27 points, including 13 in the fourth quarter, as his San Antonio Spurs swept LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers.

Ginobili does not focus on his individual honors and accomplishments, but he starred for the Argentine National Team and in Europe before joining the San Antonio Spurs in 2002. He had the talent to be an NBA starter, but he accepted that it would be better for the team if he provided a spark off of the bench--unlike many NBA players who insist on being "the man" even if they are not fit for that role and even if assuming that role is detrimental to team success. Ginobili came off of the bench in 708 of his 1057 career regular season games and in 165 of his 218 career playoff games, but he still earned two All-Star selections and two All-NBA Third Team selections. He also won Sixth Man of the Year for the 2007-08 season. More significantly, he played a key role on four NBA championship teams (2003, 2005, 2007, 2014), and he has the best individual winning percentage among NBA players who participated in at least 1000 regular season games.

Many people struggle to place Ginobili's career in proper context, and there is a tendency to overreact in one of two ways: one camp suggests that Ginobili was just as good as a Pantheon player like Kobe Bryant and that if Ginobili had wanted to he could have averaged 30 ppg in the NBA; the second camp counters that Ginobili averaged just 13.3 ppg during his regular season career and that he was a role player who gets attention because Tim Duncan served as a rising tide that lifted all boats. 

The reality is more nuanced than members of either camp are willing to admit. Ginobili was not a Pantheon level player; no matter how you crunch the per minute numbers or extrapolate his "efficiency" over a larger "usage rate" you cannot change the reality that averaging 13.3 ppg in 25.4 mpg playing mostly against bench players does not equal averaging 30 ppg while playing 38-40 mpg mostly against starting players and against teams who design their defenses primarily to limit your efficiency and productivity. 

Could Ginobili have been a career 20 ppg scorer had he been placed in a different role? Perhaps, but even if he could not have done that the second camp is selling him short by dismissing him as an overly hyped role player. What both camps fail to understand is that Ginobili willingly took the role that was best for his team and was also best for him: playing 35-40 mpg as a superstar player is something that very few people are equipped to do mentally, emotionally, and physically. It is selfless--but also shrewd--to acknowledge if you are not really cut out for that superstar role, and to instead focus on playing in a way that maximizes team success.

Players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carmelo Anthony, and James Harden spent most or all of their careers focused on being "the man"--and many media members rode their coattails to success by praising and overrating those guys--but anyone who understands what it takes to win and what it means to be great would rather have Manu Ginobili as a teammate than any of those guys. Ginobili is in many respects similar to Bobby Jones: both players deflected praise, did not care about individual statistics, and focused their efforts on what they had to do to help their teams to win. Arenas remains a clown to this day and he had a short prime, so hopefully we will be spared the indignity of ever hearing him deliver a Hall of Fame acceptance speech, but it is likely that Anthony and Harden will eventually be inducted--and their acceptance speeches will probably reflect how they think about themselves and the game, and thus those speeches will bear little resemblance to Ginobili's speech.

Articles About Recent Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies:

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes 15 New Members and Honors Bill Russell a Second Time (Class of 2021)

Kobe Bryant Headlines the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Class of 2020) 

The Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes A Diverse Class of 12 Inductees (Class of 2019)

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2018)

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:32 PM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now

The arrival of the new Lindy's Pro Basketball is a happy and welcome sight because that means the NBA season is going to start soon. The 2022-23 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus eight feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" by Mike Ashley (recapping the major off-season stories), "The Pick-and-Roll, A Love Story" (Michael Bradley discusses how modern defenses adjust to basketball's oldest play), "Tatum and Brown" (Mark Murphy profiles Boston's dynamic duo), "Keeping the Faith" (Bill Sorrell writes about how Jonathan Isaac is strengthened by his religious beliefs), "NBA Report Card" (editor Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Jeremy Treatman scouts the 2023 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts) and "A Look Back" (Lazenby reflects on the 25th anniversary of the Chicago Bulls' fabled "Last Dance").

I wrote six team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Luka Doncic, the "GOAT" conversation surrounding Stephen Curry, CJ McCollum, the tanking Thunder, Damian Lillard, and the tanking Spurs (parenthetical note: it is sad that two of the six teams that I analyzed are openly tanking). It is worth noting that the magazine went to press before the Thunder's Chet Holmgren suffered a season-ending foot injury, so my Thunder preview does not indicate that he will not play in 2022-23. Also, my "3 Things to Look For" regarding the Warriors were reprinted from last year's issue due to a technical error; my "3 Things to Look For" regarding the Warriors should read as follows:

1) One For the Thumb? The Warriors are seeking their fifth title in nine seasons, a feat matched only by Mikan's Lakers, Russell's Celtics, the Magic/Kareem Lakers, and the Jordan/Pippen Bulls.                       

2) Revolving Door: The defending champions will have at least five new players on their roster, and will need to replace rotation players Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II.

3) Wiseman’s Impact: If James Wiseman can stay healthy and continue to develop, he could be an important member of the Warriors’ rotation.

This is the 14th year that I have contributed to Lindy's, dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my attendance at law school in 2014-15, and then in 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2016-17 is Available Now! 

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:59 PM

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Tuesday, September 06, 2022

Mitchell Trade Signals That Cavaliers Are In "Win Now" Mode

After weeks of "insider" speculation about where Donovan Mitchell would be traded, he ended up with a team that it is doubtful that any "insider" mentioned: the Cleveland Cavaliers. I don't publish "breaking news," but I do enjoy analyzing news after it is officially confirmed. To acquire Mitchell from the Utah Jazz, the Cavaliers gave up Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji, and three future unprotected first round picks (2025, 2027, 2029), plus pick swaps in 2026 and 2028. 

The general guiding rule when evaluating an NBA trade is that the team that received the best player "won" the trade, barring unusual extenuating circumstances. This trade involves several draft picks, so it is hypothetically possible that Utah will "win" at some future time by drafting a player who is better than any player involved in this trade, but--based on what we know for sure now--Cleveland received the best player: Donovan Mitchell has already established himself as a consistent NBA All-Star.

Last season, Mitchell averaged 25.9 ppg, a career-high 5.3 apg, and 4.2 rpg with shooting splits of .448/.355/.853, numbers that are very similar to his career averages. In 39 playoff games, he has averaged 28.3 ppg, 4.7 apg, and 4.9 rpg with shooting splits of .431/.369/.865. He ranks seventh in ABA/NBA career playoff scoring average, trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, and LeBron James. Mitchell has made the All-Star team in each of the past three seasons, and he received All-NBA Team votes in each of his five professional seasons, though he has yet to be selected to the All-NBA Team. Mitchell has been criticized for his shot selection, his decision making in general (someone took the time to track how often Mitchell passed to specific teammates), and his defense, but there is no denying that he is a significant weapon as both a scorer and a playmaker.

In contrast, the second best player in the trade--Sexton--has yet to make the All-Star team, and his seasonal games played numbers have declined from 82 as a rookie to 65, 60, and then just 11 last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Sexton has been productive when he played, but he has not been as productive as Mitchell, he is not even close to being as durable, and he has not played in a single playoff game. 

Markannen is a good player to plug into an eight man rotation, but he is not a star and it is unlikely that he will become a star: the five year veteran posted his best numbers in season two, and he averaged 14.8 ppg and 5.7 rpg last season, a bit below his career norms in both categories.

Agbaji led Kansas to the 2022 NCAA title, and he was selected as the 2022 Final Four Most Outstanding Player. The consensus First Team All-American might turn into a great NBA player, a good NBA player, or a bust. That is the reality: until a college player plays against NBA competition, it is difficult to determine for sure how good he is.

I applaud the Cavaliers for trying to build the best team that they can build right now, regardless of whether or not their efforts will result in a championship. This is much better for the sport, the league, and the fans than the tanking epidemic that is plaguing the sport while making a mockery of the notion of authentic competition. Contrary to the proclamation of a book title that should have been fact-checked, the Philadelphia 76ers are not "Tanking to the Top," because no one has ever tanked to the top and it is unlikely that a team ever will tank to the top. The evidence demonstrates that tanking does not work, but that evidence has not been enough to persuade NBA teams to avoid tanking, and during the 2022-23 season NBA fans face the sorry prospect of watching several teams either actively trying to lose or, at best, making a half-hearted effort to win. 

Barring injuries and/or significant trades, the Milwaukee Bucks should be the favorite to win the Eastern Conference, followed closely by the Boston Celtics. The Brooklyn Nets have a lot of top line talent, but there are serious questions about team chemistry and depth--not to mention the availability of their "Big Three" players (particularly Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons). The Cavaliers could be a top four team "with a bullet"--a squad on the rise that could be dangerous this season before peaking in a year or two.

Mitchell is a prolific scorer who also is a capable passer and rebounder. He is just the sixth player in NBA history to amass at least 8000 points, at least 1500 assists, and at least 1400 rebounds through the first 345 games of his career, joining Hall of Famers Oscar Robertson, Pete Maravich, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade. Mitchell provides dynamic scoring and shot creation that the Cavaliers did not previously have. Just as importantly, the Cavaliers have the necessary personnel to mask Mitchell's only skill set weakness: defense. Last season, the Cavaliers ranked fifth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. The Cavaliers, unlike many young teams, have bought into the concept that defense is important. Ideally, Mitchell will buy into that concept as well--something he has yet to do during his young career--but even if Mitchell never becomes a great defender the Cavaliers can protect him enough at that end of the court and then reap the benefits that he provides offensively. 

The Cavaliers have a bright future both short term and long term; they will, at the very least, be a solid playoff team this season, and they have the potential to develop into a championship contender. 

On the other hand, the Utah Jazz have a much cloudier future. This summer, the Jazz traded away their two best players--Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert--mainly for draft picks. I hope--for the sake of the league and the sake of the sport--that the Jazz attempt to be competitive this season and do not go into full tank mode to improve their draft positioning, but it looks like Utah, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and several other teams are in a furious race to the bottom that is bad for everyone: the league, the fans, the television networks, and anyone who believes the notion that sports are about competition and not about (mis)using so-called "analytics" as a shortcut to effective team-building. 

Barring a miracle--or a total collapse by multiple teams--the Jazz will not make the playoffs this season, and the only question is whether or not they will even try to be competitive on a game to game basis. It is worth spending a moment to discuss--and debunk--two widely held beliefs that are used to justify tanking. 

One is that draft picks are absolute gold, and they are more valuable than actual NBA players, because an NBA player's ability can be exactly measured (and is thus a fixed quantity) while a draft pick's potential is (theoretically) unlimited. The flaws in this way of thinking should be obvious, but for those who have not analyzed this in depth please note the following:

1) Most NBA draft picks wash out of the league sooner rather than later. This is a matter of simple arithmetic: there are 30 teams with 15 roster spots, and there are 60 draft picks per year. Each year, a few Lottery picks become good to great players, and a few lower draft choices become better than anyone (including the teams that drafted them) had reason to suspect they would become--but most draft picks just are not good enough to stick around for very long (there are also a small number of undrafted players who carve out successful NBA careers, which further illustrates that hoarding NBA draft picks is far from a guaranteed path to success). 

2) A player who has lasted a few years in the NBA has already "told" the world who he is as a player, for better or worse; at a minimum, he has proven that he has the necessary mentality, emotional stability, and physical skills to survive. A player who has not yet played in the NBA has not proven any of those three things.

3) Consequently, while it is obviously true that a small number of players who are not yet in the NBA will prove to be great, there is not a reliable method for consistently identifying those players. Each year, everyone knows who the top 10 or so picks will be--but no one knows which of those picks will pan out and which of those picks will wash out, and it is even less clear which players who are not top 10 prospects on paper will in fact turn out to be All-Stars.

Therefore, it is important to draft well, but it is fool's gold to just stockpile draft picks while gutting your roster of proven NBA players.

The second widely held but flawed belief that is relevant to this discussion is that the 1980s Boston Celtics provide a cautionary tale about what can go wrong if a team is kept together too long as opposed to being broken up in exchange for draft picks. The problems that the Celtics encountered in the 1990s did not happen because the Celtics kept Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish for too long; the problems happened because two of the Celtics' most promising young players died: Reggie Lewis established himself as an All-Star before passing away, and Len Bias was expected to be a great player before dying without ever playing in an NBA game. The Celtics obtained the draft rights to those players without tanking, and if those players had lived then Lewis certainly would have made a difference, and Bias may have made a difference as well. If the Celtics had gotten rid of their Hall of Fame frontcourt to tank and hoard draft picks it is doubtful that they would have ended up any better than they did. 

It is true that Bill Walsh, one of the greatest NFL coaches of all-time, firmly believed in getting rid of a player one year too soon as opposed to one year too late--but the brutal nature of pro football means that a football player can lose "it" much more suddenly than an NBA player; an NFL player, particularly one who relies on speed or on being able to absorb hits, can be very good one season and then almost useless the next season, but that kind of dramatic and swift decline is rare in the NBA (and is often caused by serious injury, drug abuse, and/or not taking care of one's body). An NBA player who avoids trouble off of the court, takes care of his body, and does not suffer a serious injury can be highly productive for 10-15 years or more, so getting rid of a proven player while rolling the dice that you can draft a better player is just that: a reckless roll of the dice, not an analytical decision supported by data.

I hope that the Jazz don't tank, but if they do tank then I wish the same thing for them that I wish for every team that tanks: that they stink for a long time. 

I credit the Cavaliers for not standing pat with a good young team, but instead making a move to improve the team's talent level, and I hope that the Cavaliers reach a level of success that contrasts with the Jazz and the "tankers" to such an extent that even the most ardent, delusional believers in tanking will be forced to admit the error of their ways.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:47 AM

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