Team USA's Rout of Iran Should be Expected, Not Celebrated
In the longstanding media tradition of overreaction, Team USA's 120-66 win over Iran in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021) has been touted in some quarters as proof that Team USA made great adjustments--media members love to talk about adjustments, because it makes them sound like sophisticated basketball analysts--and that order has been restored to the basketball universe.
Before jumping to conclusions, let's consider the facts. In the most recent FIBA rankings, Team USA is ranked first, while Iran is ranked 23rd and France--which defeated Team USA 83-76--is ranked seventh. Team USA's next opponent, the Czech Republic, is ranked 12th. Iran is in no form or fashion a medal contender. Team USA lost to a fringe medal contender, and faces a bigger challenge next game than Iran is capable of mounting.
Team USA versus Iran is a massive mismatch. Hamed Haddaddi, who tied for Iran's team lead with 14 points, is a 36 year
old former NBA player who averaged 4.1 ppg in his best NBA season
(2012-13). The other Iranian who scored 14 points, Mohammad
Jamshidijfarabadi, apparently last played professionally in the
Philippines in 2016. If Team USA Coach Gregg Popovich needed to make adjustments to beat a team led by--with all due respect--a washed up ex-NBA reserve and a player who has not even played in a lower level professional league in five years then that does not speak well of Team USA's pre-Olympics preparation.
This particular game had nothing to do with coaching, because the tremendous talent disparity was far too much for Iran to overcome. Iran shot 25-67 from the field (.373) while committing 23 turnovers. Team USA shot 42-76 from the field (.553) while committing just six turnovers. Team USA's athleticism and pressure defense overwhelmed Iran, and led to numerous uncontested or lightly contested scoring opportunities for Team USA. Damian Lillard scored 21 points, and five other Team USA players reached double figures as every player on the team scored at least four points.
In contrast, coaching mattered in the game against France, and the results were not pretty for Team USA. Coaching may matter to at least some extent versus the Czech Republic, and it will certainly be very important in the medal round.
So much emphasis is placed on Team USA's shooting and specifically Team USA's three point shooting that it is worth mentioning that Team USA could have missed 37 three point shots and still beaten Iran by three points! Team USA shot 19-39 from three point range versus Iran, but had those numbers been 2-39 then Team USA would have still won 69-66. That says a lot not only about the talent gap between the teams but also about the relative importance of three point shooting for Team USA. As I have explained for well over a decade, Team USA's keys for success in FIBA play are guarding the three point shot effectively without giving up easy points in the paint, forcing turnovers, and scoring a lot of fast break points so that they do not have to rely too much on their half court offense.
It would be great if Team USA's win over Iran is a preview of coming attractions and the first step toward winning a gold medal, but anyone who understands FIBA basketball realizes that this game is not a valid measuring stick for how well Team USA will do against the medal contenders.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Gregg Popovich, Hamed Haddadi, Iran, Team USA
posted by David Friedman @ 9:21 PM
Assessing Team USA After the 83-76 Loss to France
Gregg Popovich is a lock to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, but it is fair to say that his FIBA exploits will not figure prominently in his Hall of Fame display. Team USA has lost five of the last eight FIBA games that he has coached since 2019, including France's 83-76 win over Team USA in Team USA's first game in the 2020 Olympics (being held in 2021). This defeat snapped Team USA's 25 game Olympics winning streak, dating back to 2004 when Popovich was a Team USA assistant coach for Larry Brown.
It is fair to say that France's Coach Vincent Collet outcoached Popovich, who had the much more talented roster yet could not figure out a way to stop France down the stretch. This is just Team USA's sixth loss in Olympic competition, and it might have been the worst from a coaching standpoint, as Popovich's crew blew a 74-67 lead with less than four minutes remaining.
Evan Fournier poured in a game-high 28 points versus a Team USA squad featuring--among others--All-Stars Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, and Devin Booker. Before the contest, I wondered why NBC had relegated Team USA's games to Peacock streaming, but maybe NBC suspected that the U.S. squad--which should never, ever, ever again be called any kind of "Dream Team"--may become known as the "Not Ready for Prime Time Players."
Rudy Gobert had 14 points, nine rebounds, and no blocked shots, but those numbers do not reflect the impact that he had on winning. He was very disruptive at both ends of the court, converting high percentage shots in the paint while also deterring Team USA players from venturing into the lane; Gobert did not block any shots at least in part because Team USA players were very reluctant to shoot when he was nearby. It should be noted that the official scorer possibly missed at least one Gobert block around the 3:19 mark of the second quarter on a Damian Lillard drive.
Jrue Holiday led Team USA with 18 points, but he shot just 5-13 from the field. Kevin Durant, who is closing in on the Team USA career scoring record held by Carmelo Anthony, had just 10 points on 4-12 field goal shooting. Lillard scored 11 points on 3-10 field goal shooting. Logo shots and one on one forays are not quite so easy when the opposing team is permitted to play defense, which is too often not the case in the modern NBA.
I am the last person to overreact to one game, or to assert something absurd such as a player's legacy or a coach's legacy should be defined by one game, particularly a game that is not an elimination game. However, Team USA's loss is embarrassing for a talented squad led by a highly respected coach. No matter what reasons and/or excuses are provided, Team USA should not lose to France. It is perhaps understandable for international teams that have several NBA players and more internal cohesion--based on playing together for a longer time--than Team USA to play competitively against Team USA, but when Team USA sends anything close to our A Team victory should be the only expectation. Popovich's indignant responses to legitimate media questions about this surprising loss and his coaching decisions are pathetic; if Popovich is truly not surprised that he lost to France coaching this roster then perhaps he is the wrong person for this job.
There is a tendency to seek simple, one dimensional answers/explanations, but the reality is that several factors contributed to this loss, and most of these factors are the same factors that led to previous Team USA losses in FIBA play. There are many commentators who insist that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to build a roster stacked with shooters, but the reality is that the most important thing for Team USA in FIBA play is to have guards who can pressure opposing ballhandlers, forcing turnovers to fuel the fast break attack. The best Team USA squads since the one and only real Dream Team in 1992 are the squads that had Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in the backcourt. I interviewed Steve Kerr--then the Suns General Manager--in 2007, not long after he spoke with then Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni about D'Antoni's experience as a Team USA assistant coach and Kerr told me that D'Antoni raved about Bryant's defensive impact:
Prior to each game in last summer's
FIBA Americas tournament, Bryant asked the coaching staff, "Who do you
want me to take out?" In other words, Bryant wanted to know who was the
toughest perimeter threat on each team so that he could study his
tendencies on film and then completely neutralize him on the court. I
said to Kerr, "That sounds like a sniper zeroing in on a target" and
Kerr replied, "Yeah--and he was serious." Kerr went on to say that
Bryant's "focus" and "bravado" added an essential missing element to the
squad and elevated everyone else's play. Kerr noted that the previous
Team USA squad had performed reasonably well other than the infamous
loss to Greece but that it lacked a certain "swagger," as he termed it,
and that Team USA did not have a "player who everyone feared." Kerr
literally shook his head in wonderment as he described Bryant's impact
on Team USA.
Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective.
Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period.
Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.
Also, NBA officiating has always differed from FIBA officiating, but the differences are now more pronounced than ever; in the NBA, offensive players can get away with murder on the perimeter--including traveling, carrying, and running over defenders--while any defender who is in close proximity to an offensive player (especially an offensive player who is viewed as a star) is liable to be whistled for a foul. In the loss to France, five Team USA players had more fouls than field goals made! Durant, Booker, Lillard, and the other NBA All-Stars who are big time scorers are used to not only attempting a lot of free throws per game but they are also used to (1) not being whistled for fouls, and (2) having a lot of space to operate because defenders are wary of being whistled for fouls that not only put them in foul trouble but also put their team in the penalty.
I am not a "get off my lawn" guy who thinks that today's players are terrible and old school players were perfect, but I do think that if Pete Maravich, Julius Erving, and Michael Jordan played under today's rules they would be setting records. At his best, Maravich averaged 31.1 ppg in a league with handchecking and no three point shot. Erving at his best averaged 31.9 ppg in the wide open ABA, and 26.9 ppg in an NBA with handchecking plus a three point shot that was then considered a novelty, not an offensive staple. Jordan at his best averaged 37.1 ppg in a league with handchecking and a three point shot that was still more novelty act than consistent weapon.
Maravich was a great outside shooter, while Erving and Jordan were just adequate--but if they had grown up with the three point shot it is fair to assume that Maravich would have been an even better shooter, and that Erving and Jordan would have been better shooters as well. Even if Erving and Jordan did not become premier three point shooters, if they played in an era during which (1) three point shooters opened up the floor and (2) defensive players could not touch them on the perimeter then there would be no way to stop them from scoring and/or drawing fouls. Maravich, Erving, and Jordan would not be as flustered by FIBA play as the current NBA stars are because players in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s understood how to effectively play through contact.
One Team USA loss does not invalidate Popovich's coaching legacy, nor does it invalidate the legacies of Team USA's players--but one loss does show that the people responsible for assembling and coaching this team either forgot or did not fully learn the lessons from previous Team USA losses. Popovich's poor overall FIBA coaching track record, dating all the way back to his time as an assistant coach for the 2004 Olympic team that settled for a bronze medal, gives one pause.
Team USA can still win the gold medal if Popovich can formulate an effective defensive game plan--and inspire his players to execute that plan. Great defense will generate easy scoring opportunities, which will in turn take pressure off of Team USA's sputtering half court offense.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Evan Fournier, France, Gregg Popovich, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gobert, Team USA, Vincent Collet
posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM
