2023 NBA Playoffs Open With Quadrupleheader
It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in
which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more
significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners
prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80%
of the time, as I noted when I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007. Per the NBA's 2023 Playoff Guide, since 1983-84 the game one winner has won 77.1% of all NBA playoff series, and in 2022 the game one winner won 12 out of 15 series. The reason
for the importance of the first game is that--barring injuries or other major unforeseen changes during the
series--the
matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be
decisive the rest
of the way.
Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Philadelphia 121, Brooklyn 101
The 76ers should win this series without too much difficulty because they enjoy more star power, homecourt advantage, and a significant matchup advantage with MVP candidate Joel Embiid versus whoever the Nets use to attempt to check him. James Harden is a notorious playoff choke artist, but he is less likely to choke in a series like this one than in a series that requires him to do heavy lifting.
Embiid led the 76ers with 26 points, but he shot just 7-15 from the field and only grabbed five rebounds. However, the energy that the Nets expended to limit his impact opened up the floor for Embiid's teammates. Harden finished with 23 points and a game-high 13 assists. He shot 7-13 from three point range, but just 1-8 from inside the arc. The 76ers shot 21-43 (.486) on three pointers, giving the Nets a no-win choice: watch Embiid score 40-plus points versus single coverage, or watch the 76ers fire away from deep after Embiid is trapped. The Nets are betting that Harden will not regularly shoot 7-13 from beyond the arc--and they are right--but one of many problems for the Nets is that Tyrese Maxey will also not likely continue to shoot just 3-8 from the field. In short, the individual numbers will change from game to game, but Philadelphia's overall matchup advantages will remain constant.
Mikal Bridges scored a game-high 30 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, and the Nets shot .557 from the field, but the Nets only attempted 70 field goals while the 76ers attempted 89 field goals. Philadelphia created those extra possessions because they outrebounded the Nets 38-35 while only committing nine turnovers compared to the Nets' 20 turnovers.
If the Nets clean up their ballhandling and continue to shoot a high percentage then they could steal a game if Philadelphia's three point shooting cools off--but, as noted above, the Nets' problem from game to game is that if they fix one problematic area they are likely to have a problem in a different area.
In short, the 76ers are the better team.
Boston 112, Atlanta 99
Boston led 29-19 by the end of the first quarter and extended that margin to 74-44 by halftime. The Celtics led by as many as 32 points in the third quarter, and the Hawks never cut the deficit to less than 12 points the rest of the way. This is the kind of dominant performance one should expect from the defending Eastern Conference champions against a mediocre team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
Three Celtics scored at least 24 points: Jaylen Brown (29 points, 12 rebounds, three assists), Jayson Tatum (25 points, 11 rebounds, two assists), and Derrick White (24 points, five rebounds, seven assists). Coach Joe Mazzulla cut Boston's rotation to eight players, and each of his starters played at least 32 minutes, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes. Depth is important to overcome foul trouble and injuries during the course of the 82 game regular season, but in the playoffs the top teams often put their best players on the court for extended minutes and challenge the opposing team to keep up.
Dejounte Murray led the Hawks with 25 points, and he tied Clint Capela for the team lead with eight rebounds, but he shot just 10-25 from the field. The often-hyped Trae Young managed just 16 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight assists, five turnovers, and a team-worst -14 plus/minus number. This was Young's sixth playoff game since Atlanta lost in game six of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Here are Young's field goal shooting numbers in those six games: 1-12, 10-20, 6-14, 3-11, 2-12, 5-18. That adds up to a .310 field goal percentage. When I call a team's playoff run "improbable" or "fluky," and when I repeatedly insist that undersized guards who don't play much defense will not lead a team to a championship, I am not being a "hater"; I am drawing conclusions based on evidence.
Danny Ainge's old quip that the NBA playoffs are not the Tour de France--meaning that Atlanta will not start out the next game behind by 13 points--remains true, but it is equally true that matchup advantages exploited in game one will likely be exploited throughout the series.
This is the one first round series that I predicted will be a sweep, and nothing that happened in game one changed my mind about that.
New York 101, Cleveland 97
It was a treat to watch and hear Hubie Brown do the color commentary for ESPN. Unless I missed something, the last telecast that he did was over a month ago. Brown, who coached the Knicks from 1982-86, noted before the game began how big of a difference Jalen Brunson has made this season for the Knicks as a scorer, playmaker, and leader, singling out Brunson's ability to finish in the paint despite not being very tall or super athletic. Brown also emphasized New York's offensive rebounding prowess. Both observations proved to be prescient: Brunson led the Knicks with 27 points while committing just one turnover, and the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-38, including a 17-11 advantage on the offensive boards.
Julius Randle returned to action after missing five games with a sprained ankle. He shot just 7-20 from the field, but he contributed 19 points, a team-high 10 rebounds, and four assists. Josh Hart scored 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting and he tied Randle with 10 rebounds. No other Knick scored in double figures in a low scoring, grind it out game reminiscent of how the Knicks played in the 1990s.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 38 points with eight assists, five rebounds, and just two turnovers, but he did not receive quite enough help from his teammates. Darius Garland added 17 points, but he had five turnovers and just one assist. Jarret Allen had a solid game (14 points, 14 rebounds, four assists), but the Cavaliers need more from Evan Mobley (eight points on 4-13 field goal shooting, 11 rebounds). Neither Allen nor Mobley blocked a shot, and the entire Cleveland team blocked just two shots.
The Cavaliers started slowly on their homecourt, trailing 30-24 by the end of the first quarter. Foul trouble limited Brunson's first half playing time to just nine minutes, or else the Knicks may have led by more than just 50-45 at halftime. Brunson scored 21 points in 20 minutes in the second half.
The Cavaliers briefly took a one point lead in the fourth quarter, and they outscored the Knicks 27-23 in the final stanza, but they never quite made up for their slow start. The NBA is often a first quarter league--and not a fourth quarter league, as many people assert--and the tone for a playoff series is often set in game one. However, I think that in this particular series it would be premature to say that the Cavaliers are in trouble. The Knicks went just 23-18 at home during the regular season, so assuming that the Cavaliers take care of business in Cleveland in game two this series will very likely stand at 2-2 after two games are played in New York. For that to happen, the Cavaliers must do a better job of exploiting their size by playing aggressively--and efficiently--in the paint at both ends of the court.
Sacramento 126, Golden State 123
Many commentators and self-proclaimed experts have probably not seen the Kings play or understood how good this team really is, but a national TV audience got a taste in game one as the Kings withstood every punch from the reigning NBA champions. De'Aaron Fox had one of the best playoff debuts in NBA history, pouring in a game-high 38 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs--to outduel Stephen Curry, who scored 30 points in defeat. Malik Monk (32 points) teamed up with Fox to give Sacramento their version of the "Splash Brothers," as they outscored Curry and Klay Thompson, 70-51. Domantas Sabonis struggled with his shot, scoring just 12 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, but the league's leading rebounder dominated the paint with a game-high 16 rebounds as the Kings outrebounded the Warriors, 50-41. The Kings outscored the Warriors in the paint, 60-44. News flash: this year's Warriors are an undersized team that does not defend particularly well and struggles to win on the road. Assuming that the Warriors will get bigger, defend better, and start winning on the road in the playoffs after 82 games of evidence suggesting otherwise is wishful thinking, not analytical thinking.
In the first half, it looked like the Kings might die from a thousand cuts as they appeared bewildered by the challenge of simultaneously guarding the three point line and preventing backdoor cuts--but the Kings found their footing in the second half, outscoring the Warriors 71-62 as Fox (29 points) and Monk (17 points) eviscerated Golden State's defense.
Both teams struggle defensively, so expect this series to feature many high scoring shootouts. The Warriors will fight to the end; it would be very surprising to see them collapse like the Phoenix Suns did in last year's playoffs, but it should not surprise anyone who has been paying attention to see the Kings eliminate the Warriors in the first round.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM
2022-23 NBA Playoff Predictions
The final composition of the 2023 NBA playoff field was not determined until the NBA completed its Play-In Tournament. The Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat claimed the final two playoff spots in the East, while the L.A. Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves
earned the final two playoff spots in the West; I correctly picked one of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Miami).
Before we look ahead to the playoffs, here is a recap of some of the key events of the 2022-2023 NBA season.
For the third year in a row, LeBron James and Anthony Davis failed to lead the L.A. Lakers to one of the top six seeds in the Western Conference. In 2021, the Lakers only reached the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, while in 2022 the Lakers failed to even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. In 2023, James put up impressive individual numbers (28.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 6.8 apg), and he broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular season scoring record, but the Lakers were 30-25 when he played, which projects to just under 45 wins over an 82 game season: the point is that even with James on the court the Lakers did not look like a championship caliber team. The Lakers went 13-14 when James did not play, which projects to nearly 40 wins over an 82 game season. Thus, in the 2023 season James was worth about five "extra" wins, which is not the impact that one would expect from an MVP caliber player averaging nearly 30 ppg; historically, an MVP caliber player is worth at least 15 "extra" wins.
Perhaps one reason that James' gaudy numbers did not correlate with team success is that James may be better than any other great player at stat padding. While it is true that James has proven capable of posting great individual numbers that correlate with team success--that is why he has won four championships--it is also true that he has an uncanny ability to post superficially impressive numbers that do not correlate with team success, and the 2023 season is a prime example of that. The Lakers' late season success in a small sample size of games--including games against teams that were not at full strength for a variety of reasons--had more to do with Anthony Davis being healthy/engaged and the Lakers playing better defense than it did with James' statistics.
Perhaps the biggest story in the Eastern Conference was the implosion (and late season stabilization) of the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets started the season 2-5 before parting ways with Coach Steve Nash. Then, the Nets suspended Kyrie Irving for his unrepentant antisemitism. On November 25, 2022, the Nets had a 9-11 record and seemed to be going nowhere fast--but then the Nets won 18 of their next 20 games to move up to second place in the Eastern Conference, just one game behind the 2022 Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics. However, Irving felt insulted by the team's reluctance to sign him to a multi-year maximum contract, so he requested a trade. The Nets complied, shipping Irving and Markieff Morris to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks. In the wake of Irving's departure, Kevin Durant made it known to team management that he wanted out, so the Nets sent Durant and T. J. Warren to Phoenix in exchange for Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, and four first round draft picks. It would have been easy for the Nets to fold--or tank--but they went 11-9 in their last 20 games to earn the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, Irving’s individual statistics with Dallas were good (27.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, .510 FG%), but the Mavericks went 9-11 when he played--he missed eight games for a variety of reasons, a recurring theme throughout his career--and the 2022 Western Conference finalists tumbled from fifth place to 11th place, failing to even qualify for the Play-in Tournament. One can argue that Dallas' collapse is not Irving's fault because he performed up to expectations, but there is no denying that Dallas’ season fell apart after management sacrificed depth and defense for Irving’s flashy offense.
It must be noted that for well over a decade the Mavericks have been vocal proponents of "advanced basketball statistics," and they have not been shy about asserting that their use of such numbers has been advantageous. It would be fascinating to know which analytics influenced many of their major personnel decisions over the years, including not keeping Steve Nash, dismantling the 2011 championship team, giving up on Kristaps Porzingis, not re-signing Jalen Brunson, and trading for Irving.
Not surprisingly, Durant made an immediate positive impact for Phoenix, with the only concern being his health; since Durant ruptured his Achilles during the 2019 NBA Finals, he missed the entire 2020 season and he did not play more than 55 games in 2021, 2022, or 2023. Durant appeared in 47 games during the 2023 season, and his teams went 34-13 in those games, including an 8-0 mark with the Suns--but Durant has already missed 18 games as a Sun.
If Durant had played more games this season then his name would be mentioned in the regular season MVP conversation. Three players have been named finalists in the regular season MVP balloting: two-time reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic, two-time former regular season MVP (2019, 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid, who finished second in regular season MVP voting in each of the past two seasons.
Jokic led Denver to the best record in the Western Conference (53-29) while averaging 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg (second in the league), and a career-high 9.8 apg (setting a single season record for centers while ranking third in the league). He played in 69 games; the Nuggets posted a 48-21 record with him in the lineup, and a 5-8 record when he did not play.
Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee to the best record in the NBA (58-24) while averaging a career-high 31.1 ppg (fifth in the league), 11.8 rpg (third in the league), and 5.7 apg. He played in 63 games; the Bucks posted a 47-16 record with him in the lineup, and an 11-8 record when he did not play.
Embiid led Philadelphia to the third best record in the Eastern Conference (54-28) while averaging a career-high 33.1 ppg to capture his second consecutive scoring title. He also averaged 10.2 rpg (eighth in the league) and 4.2 apg. He played in 66 games; the 76ers posted a 43-23 record with him in the lineup, and an 11-5 record when he did not play. The MVP award seems to matter more to Embiid than to the other two top contenders, perhaps because Embiid is the only member of that trio who has yet to win an MVP.
The historical standard is that an NBA regular season MVP must play in at least 85% of the scheduled games,
which adds up to at least 70 games in the traditional 82 game season.
Bill Walton is the only regular season MVP in NBA history who played
in less than 85% of his team's games. If the historical standard were applied this season, then none of the top three contenders would be eligible. Starting next season, the NBA will enforce a requirement that players must participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards. Under that standard, Antetokounmpo would not be eligible for awards consideration this season, and Embiid would barely make the cut; it will be interesting to see if the new rule inspires players do less resting/load managing.
I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league,
with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is
having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player
(for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his
dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player).
Antetokounmpo
has been the best all-around player in the NBA for the past several years, but I feel uneasy crowning him as the MVP for a season in which he missed 19 games, particularly when there are other strong candidates.
Embiid is not as good of an all-around player as Antetokounmpo, and he does not have the impact on team success that Antetokounmpo and Jokic do; the 76ers won more than two thirds of the games that Embiid missed this season. The surging media narrative is that Embiid will win the award. He is an MVP caliber player, but I do not believe that he is the best all-around player in the NBA, nor do I believe that he had a better season than Antetokounmpo or Jokic.
Jokic is not a perfect MVP candidate; he is worse defensively than both of the other top two contenders, and his performance level wavered a bit down the stretch. From a historical standpoint, a third consecutive regular season MVP would put him in a category with only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, and Larry Bird; Jokic definitely seems like the odd member in that group--but the award should be given out on a year to year basis, and this year Jokic nearly averaged a triple double while being by far the most important and impactful player on the best team in the Western Conference. Jokic is also the MVP candidate who came closest to matching the 70 games played threshold.
I want to throw my support behind Antetokounmpo, but I am just not comfortable endorsing the idea that a player can miss nearly a fourth of the season and still win the sport's most prestigious individual award, so I would select Jokic as the 2022-23 NBA regular season MVP.
The 2023 NBA playoffs are generating a lot of hype because of the widespread belief that there are more teams than usual that have a realistic opportunity to win the championship. I suspect that as the playoffs unfold we will see that there are fewer legitimate contenders than many people are suggesting. I believe and hope that the regular season matters, that teams that did
less load managing and had better continuity will enjoy advantages over
teams that spent the season load managing and teams that made trades and juggled
rosters as if building a championship team is as easy as warming up microwaveable food.
Here are my first round predictions:
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee (58-24) versus #8 Miami (44-38)
Perhaps the Bucks learned from their mistake last season when they rested their starters in the final regular season game, conceding the second seed to the Boston Celtics--who then defeated Milwaukee at Boston in game seven of the second round. This year, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Homecourt advantage should not matter much in the first round, but the Bucks appear to be on a collision course for a rematch with the Celtics--this time in the Eastern Conference Finals--and homecourt advantage will be very important in that series.
As mentioned above, Antetokounmpo authored yet another MVP-caliber season. Entering the playoffs, the Bucks have more depth than they enjoyed during last year's playoffs. Khris Middleton only played in 33 regular season games as he battled a variety of injuries, but he is expected to be ready to go when the playoffs begin. Jrue Holiday made the All-Star team while leading the Bucks in assists (7.4 apg) and ranking second on the team in scoring (19.3 ppg). Brook Lopez is a candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Bucks have several other quality rotaton players, including Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles, and Jevon Carter.
The Bucks led the league in rebounding, and they ranked second in defensive field goal percentage. They accomplished those things despite committing the second fewest fouls. Defending and rebounding without fouling enabled the Bucks to give up the third fewest number of free throws made.
There is often hype surrounding an eighth seeded team that is the proverbial "team no one wants to face," but it is important to remember that are good reasons (weaknesses) explaining why a team finished in eighth place, and those reasons (weaknesses) tend to be exposed by a superior team in a playoff series. Miami was a mediocre and flawed team over the course of the 82 game season--they ranked 30th (last) in the league in scoring, and they ranked 27th in the league in rebounding. The Heat ranked second in points allowed, but that is deceptive because their games tended to be slow paced; they ranked 22nd in the league in defensive field goal percentage, which is a strong indicator that their defense was not up to the standard expected from Miami: the 2020 Miami Heat team that reached the NBA Finals ranked seventh in the league in defensive field goal percentage. It is improbable that Milwaukee will lose four games out of seven to this mediocre and flawed Miami team. Milwaukee will win in five games.
#2 Boston (57-25) versus #7 Atlanta (41-41)
The Celtics are on a mission to return to the NBA Finals after squandering a 2-1 lead versus the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals. They had the best record in the NBA for a significant portion of the season before they slipped a bit and fell behind the Bucks, who had a 16 game winning streak from January 23-March 1. The Celtics ranked fourth in the league in scoring, fifth in points allowed, fifth in defensive field goal percentage, and seventh in rebounding.
Jayson Tatum averaged a career-high--and Celtics' single season record--30.1 ppg (ranking sixth in the league) while setting career highs in rebounding (8.8 rpg), assists (4.6 apg), and three point field goals made (240). Jaylen Brown's numbers (26.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.5 apg) were almost as good at Tatum's, and a good case could be made that Tatum and Brown are the NBA's best all-around duo.
Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon ranked third on the team in scoring (14.9 ppg), providing a consistent offensive spark off of the bench.
The Hawks were a mediocre team throughout the regular season, shuffling through three coaches without straying too far in either direction from a .500 record. The Hawks ranked third in the league in scoring and 10th in rebounding, but they were very bad defensively, ranking 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed. They earned the seventh seed by pounding the Miami Heat inside to win their Play-In Tournament game, 116-105. Atlanta outrebounded Miami 63-39 while enjoying a 64-46 advantage in paint points.
Beating a flawed Heat team in one Play-In Tournament game is not likely to translate to a playoff series win versus the talented and deep Celtics. Boston will win in four games.
#3 Philadelphia (54-28) versus #6 Brooklyn (45-37)
Here is the scorecard for Philadelphia's much hyped "Process": season win totals of 19, 18, 10, and 28 followed by four second round playoff losses sandwiched around a first round playoff loss. That is demonstrably not "Tanking to the Top." The 76ers spent four years being lousy on purpose, and then spent the last five years unable to get past the second round of the playoffs. Joel Embiid is the only player left from the tanking process. He is undeniably a great talent, but he missed two entire seasons due to injury and he has never played more than 68 games in a season. Embiid's playoff numbers are not bad, but his postseason scoring and field goal shooting (24.0 ppg, .468 FG%) are markedly worse than his regular season scoring and field goal shooting (27.2 ppg, .501 FG%). That is important, because when a team spends a whole season playing a certain way and relying on a star player to be productive and efficient it is very difficult to compensate if that star player fails to maintain his production and efficiency.
Speaking of failing to maintain production and efficiency, James Harden is all set to begin his annual playoff "concert tour" featuring single game field goal numbers that look like spring or summer concert dates (hat tip to Jalen Rose for the "concert tour" line). Harden played in 12 playoff games last season, and he shot .400 or worse from the field in eight of them. In the series-clinching loss to the Miami Heat, Harden--a better scorer than Michael Jordan according to Daryl Morey--scored 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, including 0-2 field goal shooting in the second half of a winnable game.
There is a good case that Harden is the worst playoff choker among All-Star caliber players in pro basketball history.
Will Embiid stay healthy and productive throughout four playoff series to lead Philadelphia to a championship? Will Harden stop choking? Anything is possible, but don't bet on either of those possibilities becoming realities. Until proven otherwise, Embiid and Harden are who I have repeatedly said they are.
The 76ers are again heading for an early playoff exit--but not in the first round. The Brooklyn Nets are scrappy and they play hard. After all of the chaos, drama, and nonsense Kyrie Irving created in the first part of this season with the Nets, there is more than a little poetic justice that the Nets worked their way into the playoffs while Irving's new team played their way out of the playoffs. It would be a great story if the Nets upset the 76ers, but Embiid is a difficult matchup for almost any team, and he is a nightmare matchup for an undersized team like Brooklyn. Harden will have good moments and bad moments, Tyrese Maxey will step up when Harden disappears, and Embiid will feast on smaller defenders. Philadelphia will win in five games.
#4 Cleveland (51-31) versus #5 New York (47-35)
Donovan Mitchell delivered everything that the Cavaliers expected and hoped for after acquiring him from the Utah Jazz, posting career high numbers in scoring (28.3 ppg), field goal percentage (.484), free throw percentage (.867), and three point field goals made (245). He authored a 71 point game, which is a high point total even in today's era of laissez-faire defense.
Despite the productivity of Mitchell and his backcourt mate Darius Garland (21.6 ppg, 7.8 apg), the Cavaliers ranked just 25th in the league in scoring; relative to this era, the Cavaliers run a low possession, high efficiency offense: they ranked fifth in field goal percentage and sixth in turnovers.
Cleveland's main collective strength is defense. The Cavaliers ranked first in points allowed and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Considering their size and defensive prowess, it is surprising that they ranked just 25th in rebounding. Evan Mobley (16.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Jarrett Allen (14.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.2 bpg) provide high efficiency paint scoring, solid rebounding, and excellent rim protection.
This is New York's second playoff appearance in Tom Thibodeau's three seasons coaching the Knicks, who lost in the first round of the 2021 playoffs. By recent Knick standards, Thibodeau has built a dynasty: from 2014-2020 the Knicks made no playoff appearances and lost at least 45 games in each season.
Julius Randle had a very good 2023 season (25.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.1 apg), but he missed the last five games after suffering a sprained ankle, and his health status for this series is uncertain. Free agent acquisition Jalen Brunson (24.0 ppg, 6.2 apg) is an excellent scorer, playmaker, and leader. The Knicks excel at rebounding (third in the league) and defensive field goal percentage (third in the league), and they are very good at protecting the ball (third in the league in turnovers). They were hovering around .500 as late as early February before closing the season by winning 17 of their final 25 games.
The Knicks can pose some challenges for the Cavaliers, but Cleveland's superior size and excellent defense combined with Mitchell's experience as a top level playoff scorer should be enough for the Cavaliers to prevail. Cleveland will win in six games.
Western Conference
#1 Denver (53-29) versus #8 Minnesota (42-40)
As discussed above, Nikola Jokic had another MVP caliber season, and the Nuggets once again were very dependent on his contributions--but he has a good supporting cast that plays very well with him, even if they struggle at times without him. Jamal Murray reemerged as an All-Star caliber guard (20.0 ppg, 6.2 apg), while Michael Porter Jr. (17.4 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (16.3 ppg) are good complementary scorers. The Nuggets led the league in field goal percentage but ranked just 20th in defensive field goal percentage and 19th in rebounding. Their defense and rebounding must improve for them to match or exceed their 2020 run to the Western Conference Finals, but the Nuggets have too much firepower to lose to a mediocre eighth seed--and that is what the Minnesota Timberwolves are.
Last weekend, the Timberwolves seemed to be on the verge of imploding after Rudy Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson during a timeout--resulting in Gobert being sent home by the team and then suspended for the first Play-In Tournament game--and elite wing defender Jaden McDaniels ended his season by breaking his hand while punching a wall. Then, the Timberwolves squandered a 15 point Play-In Tournament game lead versus the L.A. Lakers, but the Timberwolves bounced back to rout the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-95 to earn the eighth seed.
The Timberwolves ranked third in the league in field goal percentage but they ranked 27th in turnovers and 29th in fouls committed, two statistics that indicate how many possessions this team squanders. The Timberwolves are talented and it would not be surprising if they are competitive at times versus the Nuggets, but Denver will win in six games.
#2 Memphis (51-31) versus #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)
The Memphis Grizzlies have been a better and more consistent team than the L.A. Lakers throughout the 2022-23 campaign. The Grizzlies led the league in defensive field goal percentage and they ranked second in rebounding. Ja Morant (26.2 ppg, 8.1 apg, 5.9 rpg) is electrifying, but the Grizzlies have two other players averaging more than 18 ppg: Desmond Bane (21.5 ppg) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.6 ppg). Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and the only downside of his game is that he commits too many silly fouls.
Some commentators insist that the Lakers are poised to make a deep playoff run. I'll believe that when I see it. The only deep playoff run that LeBron James has led since 2018 took place in the Orlando Bubble after enjoying several months of rest when the NBA paused the 2020 season because of COVID-19. I am not saying that the Bubble title does not "count," but I am saying that there is a big difference between winning a championship with no road playoff games after having months of rest before the playoffs versus winning a championship when your team must win at least one road game per series without having any time off before the playoffs.
The Lakers are at their best when LeBron James and Anthony Davis attack the paint on offense and make their presence felt in the paint on defense. If James and Davis consistently attack the paint, the Lakers could win one or two games, but it is difficult to believe that the Lakers will outplay the Grizzlies four times in a seven game series.
The one concern for Memphis is that the absence of injured big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke will hurt them defensively and on the boards, but the Grizzlies have enough talent and depth to beat the Lakers. The Grizzlies will win in six games.
#3 Sacramento (48-34) versus #6 Golden State (44-38)
The Kings have a high-powered offense and a suspect defense; they ranked first in the league in scoring and second in the league in field goal percentage, but they ranked 25th in the league in points allowed and 29th in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings do not match the statistical profile of a championship team, and I may regret picking them to win this series--but the Warriors have a similar statistical profile to the Kings, and they are a lousy road team that must win at least one road game to eliminate the Kings. I say "at least one" because the Kings are an excellent road team (25-16), so there is a decent chance that the Kings will win a game at Golden State, which would then up the ante for the Warriors.
Although the Kings have a young team, I don't expect that their three best players will flinch under the playoff lights. Damontas Sabonis (19.1 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 7.3 apg) is a force in the paint who can also drain three pointers and make plays for his teammates. He led the league in rebounding, he ranked 10th in the league in field goal percentage (.639), and he ranked 11th in the league in assists. Sabonis is an All-NBA caliber player, as is De'Aaron Fox (25.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.2 rpg). Harrison Barnes (15.0 ppg) is a solid scorer who was a starter for Golden State's 2015 championship team.
The Warriors are the defending champions until someone beats them, and their roster is full of celebrated players who have won multiple NBA titles, including Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green--but the NBA playoffs are about what you can do now, not what you have done in the past. This season, the Warriors ranked 30th (last) in the league in turnovers and 28th in fouls committed; they are a careless team that gives extra possessions to their opponents and then relies on three point shooting to make up the difference. That is not a championship formula unless defense is added to the equation, which was the case during their championship runs but has not been the case this season.
Could the Warriors put everything together, play elite level defense, and win the 2023 championship? I have more trepidation picking against them then I do about picking against any other lower seeded team this year, but I will stick with my analysis that the Warriors showed us who they are over the course of the regular season. Sacramento will win in six games.
#4 Phoenix (45-37) versus #5 L.A. Clippers (44-38)
The Suns were heading for an early playoff loss--at best--before acquiring Kevin Durant, who is one of the NBA's few legitimate franchise players (many players are given that label, but only a handful have earned it). Durant is an elite three level scorer who is also a good rebounder, passer, and defensive player. It will be very difficult for opposing teams to design a defense to contain Durant while also dealing with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Chris Paul has slowed down and he has always been injury-prone, but he is still a solid playmaker and midrange shooter.
The biggest questions for the Suns involve health and continuity. If their key players can stay healthy--no small question considering the injury histories of Durant, Booker, and Paul--and if the Suns can play good defense under playoff pressure then this team has a chance to make a deep playoff run.
The Clippers entered the season with championship hopes based on the potential of their dynamic duo--Kawhi Leonard and Paul George--but between real injuries and deplorable load management both players missed a ton of games. George is injured now and it is not clear when/if he will return for the playoffs. It is difficult to picture the Clippers winning this series or even extending it to seven games without George.
Russell Westbrook played very well for the Clippers after escaping from the L.A. Lakers. Westbrook averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games as the Clippers' starting point guard. He shot .489 from the field, including .356 from three point range, putting the lie to the notions that (1) he is washed up and (2) he cannot score efficiently. In order to win this series--particularly with George being out or limited--the Clippers will need to fully unleash Westbrook, on the order of 20-plus ppg, 8-plus apg, and 8-plus rpg. If Westbrook can get the Clippers going in transition then the Clippers may have a chance, assuming that Leonard also plays at a very high level. Leonard is one of very few players in the league who can go head to head with Durant and not come out on the short end of that matchup. It would be a great story if Westbrook leads his hometown team to a first round upset, but I predict that Phoenix will win in six games.
-----
Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Milwaukee-Cleveland, Boston-Philadelphia, Denver-Phoenix, and Memphis-Sacramento.
Cleveland is an excellent defensive team, and Donovan Mitchell has proven that he can provide explosive offense during the playoffs, but over the course of a playoff series Giannis Antetokounmpo's greatness plus Milwaukee's size and depth will be too much. Milwaukee will win in six games.
Boston versus Philadelphia is one of the NBA's most classic matchups, featuring great individual rivalries like Chamberlain versus Russell and Erving versus Bird. The modern Celtics are a playoff-tested, playoff-proven squad, while the modern 76ers have consistently bowed out of the playoffs no later than the second round. Tatum will dominate, Embiid will have a few great moments, Harden will disappear when it matters most, and Boston will win in six games.
The Suns have more star power than the Nuggets, but three of the Suns' top players--Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul--have been injury-prone in recent seasons. I believe that at least one of them will be limited by injury by the second round, and that injuries--plus the lack of defensive chemistry that often plagues teams after they are assembled on the fly as this team has been--will contribute to the Suns' downfall. Denver will win in seven games.
Memphis and Sacramento are two rising young teams, but the Grizzlies have more playoff experience and are better defensively, so I expect the Grizzlies to win in six games. If both of these teams keep their rosters together and stay healthy, they could have some fun playoff matchups over the next few seasons.
The Milwaukee-Boston playoff rematch--this time in the Eastern Conference Finals instead of the second round--will probably be the best series of the 2023 playoffs. I expect this heavyweight bout to go the distance, with Milwaukee winning game seven at home to avenge last year's game seven loss to the Celtics in Boston.
Denver versus Memphis in the Western Conference Finals will be a battle of two franchises that have never reached the NBA Finals, although the Nuggets played in the 1976 ABA Finals. I think that Denver has been--and continues to be--underrated by many commentators, and I expect the Nuggets to beat the Grizzlies in six games.
The NBA Finals will feature a matchup of two two-time regular season MVPs, although one of them may be a three-time regular season MVP by the time that the NBA Finals begin. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already proven that he can lead a team to a championship, while an NBA title is the only thing missing from Nikola Jokic's resume. The Bucks have enough size to slow Jokic down without conceding open shots to his supporting cast. I pick the Bucks to beat the Nuggets in six games in the 2023 NBA Finals.
********************
Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:
In my 2022-2023 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went six for eight in my 2022-2023 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8
That adds up to 110/144 in the East and 113/144 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .774.
Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15
Total: 195/270 (.722)
At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 18 years I have correctly picked
18 of the 36 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 18 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted
the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.
I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA
Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 12:42 AM
Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA
The New Orleans Pelicans' 2022-23 season ended at home last night with a 123-118 Play-In Tournament loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Pelicans would probably have won if they had received any contribution from Zion Williamson, who was paid over $13.5 million to play in 29 games this season. In his four year NBA career, Williamson has received over $44 million from the Pelicans despite playing in just 114 games. He has been blessed with generational wealth by the NBA in exchange for less than a season and a half of work--and that does not even include the millions of dollars that he has been paid for commercial endorsements. There is no doubt that Williamson is a talented player--his career averages are 25.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 3.6 apg--but in most professions a person does not get paid for missing the equivalent of two and a half years of work, nor does a person have the good fortune of being financially set for life after working for 18 months.
Williamson's public comments a day before the Play-In Tournament must exasperate and infuriate Pelicans' management, players, and fans. "Physically, I’m fine," Williamson declared. "Now it’s just a
matter of when I feel like Zion. I can pretty much do
everything, but it's just a matter of the level that I was playing at
before my hamstring. I don't want to go out there and be in
my own head and affect the team when I can just be on the sideline
supporting them more, because I know myself. If I was to go out there, I
would be in my head. I would hesitate on certain moves and it could
affect the game."
Williamson admits that he is healthy, a fact that we can all see with our own eyes as he unleashes a flurry of dunks while warming up before his teammates go to work. Williamson is healthy, but he does not "feel like Zion," so he collects a check for not playing. Willis Reed played in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals despite a painful hip injury, but Williamson refused to even attempt to help his team with the season on the line.
It would be great if the Pelicans management informed Zion, "Financially, the franchise is fine. But until we feel like paying you, we are not going to pay you."
Yes, I know that the team cannot do that, because the players collectively bargained for themselves the right to receive guaranteed contracts so that they will be paid even if they choose not to play.
Williamson's foul attitude is a direct result of the NBA endorsing the following noxious notions: showing up to work does not matter, winning does not matter, and employees deserve to be compensated despite not doing their jobs. As I noted in a recent article, the toxic combination of load management and tanking "cheats the fans who buy tickets to see their favorite players, compromises the
integrity of playoff seeding, devalues individual and team statistics,
and creates a host of issues regarding legalized wagering."
If I ran the Pelicans, I would trade Williamson to any team willing to take him. You cannot trust a person like Williamson, and you certainly cannot win anything of significance with him as the franchise player. There is no reason to believe that he loves the game or that he has a competitive spirit. Maybe he will mature, but he is already a grown man and the NBA as currently structured provides little incentive for players to develop any competitive spirit that is not an intrinsic part of their character already.
If I were one of Williamson's teammates, I would be furious at him. C.J. McCollum has played for months with a thumb injury that may
require offseason surgery, and he played the last several games
with a shoulder injury that may require offseason surgery--but he played in 75 games for the Pelicans this season, and he played in the Play-In Tournament game last night.
Hype and compensation should never precede accomplishment--but NBA owners and players are not fools; they are brilliant, because they are getting rich off of the money provided by consumers who watch the games, attend the games, and purchase the endorsed products. As long as we continue to spend the money, the owners and players will be happy to take it.
Labels: load management, NBA, New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson
posted by David Friedman @ 9:42 PM
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament
Doug Collins--four-time NBA All-Star, long-time NBA coach, and first-rate basketball commentator--used to say that you can tell a lot about a team by how that team reacts after a win. Did the team expect to win and does the team expect to do more, or is the team too excited about a win that should be considered routine?
The L.A. Lakers have two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. The franchise prides itself on winning championships and having championship expectations. Being in the Play-In Tournament is an embarrassment for such a franchise, not an accomplishment, and winning a Play-In Tournament game should be considered a routine first step toward the achievement of the franchise's annual goal of capturing a championship.
The 2023 Lakers celebrated a 108-102 overtime Play-In Tournament game win versus the shorthanded 42-40 Minnesota Timberwolves as if they had beaten the archrival Boston Celtics in game seven of the NBA Finals.
The Timberwolves were in control for most of the game and led by as many as 15 points, but they have earned their reputation of not having an exceptionally high collective basketball IQ--and they confirmed that reputation by quite literally throwing the game away, committing six fourth quarter turnovers while shooting just 3-15 from the field in the final stanza.
If you close your eyes and listen carefully, you can hear the media members tapping out stories on their keyboards about how great the Lakers are, and how much they have turned things around since getting rid of Russell Westbrook.
Such stories are fairy tales.
I specialize in non-fiction, so let's take a non-fiction look at this game and at this Lakers team.
When the Lakers do well, the basis for their success is LeBron James and Anthony Davis attacking the paint on offense and protecting the paint on defense. James finished with a game-high 30 points on 12-21 field goal shooting. He added 10 rebounds and six assists. Davis lived in the paint, scoring 24 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 15 rebounds, including nine offensive rebounds. Davis had three blocked shots and two steals. Dennis Schroder added 21 points off of the bench; he had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, and he made essential contributions to this win. The Lakers outrebounded the Timberwolves 48-37 while outscoring the Timberwolves in the paint 54-36. Supposedly, the Lakers' early season problems were caused by turnovers and poor three point shooting--both of which were blamed on Westbrook--but the Lakers won this game despite committing 21 turnovers (Davis and James led the way with five turnovers apiece) and despite shooting .323 from three point range.
I will repeat, for those who are sitting in the back or are hard of hearing: the formula for Lakers' success involves attacking the paint and defending the paint. It is obviously helpful to make three pointers and not turn the ball over, but those things are not essential: the Lakers' "Bubble" championship team in 2020 ranked 22nd in the NBA in turnovers, 23rd in three pointers made, and 21st in three point shooting percentage.
The bottom line about the Lakers has been the same ever since James joined the team and recruited Davis: when James and Davis play in the paint, the Lakers have a great chance to win. When James and Davis do not play in the paint--or do not play at all--the Lakers are in trouble.
James had a very interesting performance. The Lakers trailed most of the way, and they trailed by 11 at halftime. Early in the second half, James had already scored 19 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, but the Lakers trailed 65-55 and he had a -20 plus/minus number, by far the worst of any player for either team. James finished with a -14 plus/minus number, the worst for any Laker. It's almost like James was not sure if the Lakers would win so he padded his stats in the early going to support the narrative that Lakers' losses are not his fault (even in games when the team is hemorrhaging points while he is on the court).
The Lakers brought in some legendary big game performers to replace Westbrook. We have been hearing for weeks about how much depth the Lakers have, and how many "lasers" (great outside shooters) the Lakers have. Let's take a look at how the Lakers' much-praised new players did in a home Play-In Tournament game against a depleted Minnesota team:
D'Angelo Russell: two points on 1-9 field goal shooting, eight assists. He is such an impactful player that Coach Darvin Ham played him for 20 seconds in the fourth quarter and 11 seconds in overtime. Yes, playoff D'Angelo is in full effect (his career playoff field goal percentage is .349).
Jarred Vanderbilt: zero points on 0-2 field goal shooting, and a wonderful -12 plus/minus number.
Malik Beasley: five points on 2-3 field goal shooting.
For those of you scoring at home, Westbrook's replacements totaled seven points on 3-14 field goal shooting. "Lasers," indeed. It will be fascinating to watch those lasers firing away against the Memphis Grizzlies, who the Lakers will face in the first round of the playoffs.
Fortunately for the Lakers, all they had to do to survive the Play-In Tournament was beat a mediocre Minnesota team that is focused on self-destruction: starting center Rudy Gobert earned a suspension for this game after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, elite wing defender Jaden McDaniels ended his season after breaking his hand by punching a wall during the team's last regular season game, and the players who did not exile themselves from the lineup seemed incapable of making a sensible play during the game's final 17 minutes: in the fourth quarter and overtime, the Timberwolves shot 5-23 from the field (.217) while committing nine turnovers.
The Timberwolves did their best to give away the game in regulation, but the Lakers kept giving it back; the Lakers 5-18 from the field in the fourth quarter while committing five turnovers. Yes, Play-In Tournament basketball is fantastic! With the Lakers leading 98-95, Davis fouled Mike Conley on a
three point shot with .1 seconds remaining. Conley drained three free
throws to send the game to overtime. Conley is a class act, and it was nice to see him come through in a clutch moment. He had an excellent game overall, finishing with 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting while adding four assists and four rebounds. Unfortunately, his heroics meant that we had to suffer through five more minutes of mediocre basketball. The Lakers had three turnovers and three field goals during the extra session, but they outscored the Timberwolves 10-4.
The Timberwolves will get one more chance to qualify for the playoffs; they will have a home game against the winner of the New Orleans-Oklahoma City Play-In Tournament game. It will be interesting to see how the Timberwolves react to Gobert's return, and it will also be interesting to see how Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards perform. Anthony-Towns led the Timberwolves in scoring (24 points) and rebounds (11), and he was the only Minnesota player with a positive plus/minus number (+18)--but during the 12 minutes that he sat out due to foul trouble the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by 24 points! Edwards, as the old saying goes, could not hit the broadside of a barn with a bass fiddle, finishing with nine points on 3-17 field goal shooting.
Be on the lookout for fairy tales about how everything negative for the Lakers this season was Westbrook's fault, and how the Lakers are a big threat to win the championship, and how the Timberwolves could be dangerous if they make the playoffs.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Dennis Schroder, Karl-Anthony Towns, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Mike Conley, Minnesota Timberwolves
posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity!
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament features the seventh seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Miami Heat and L.A. Lakers respectively) facing the eighth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively). Each of the winners of those two games qualifies for the playoffs as the seventh seeded team in that conference, and will face the second seeded team in that conference in a seven game first round playoff series. Each of the losers of those two games will get a second chance to qualify for the playoffs by facing the winner of the battle between the ninth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans respectively) versus the 10th seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively), while the losers of the games featuring the ninth and 10th seeded teams are eliminated.
The NBA began using the Play-In Tournament in this format in 2021. The seventh seeded team has yet to lose a game in either conference, and the ninth seeded team has yet to lose to the 10th seeded team. The ninth seeded team has defeated the eighth seeded team three times in four games. No team that qualified for the NBA playoffs via the Play-In Tournament has extended a playoff series to seven games, much less actually win a playoff series.
In short, the Play-In Tournament is a showcase for teams that spent 82 regular season games proving their mediocrity, and no Play-In Tournament team has proven to be anything other than mediocre.
In the Eastern Conference, I predict that Miami will defeat Atlanta, and Toronto will defeat Chicago. Then, Toronto will defeat Atlanta to earn the eighth seed. The Miami Heat not only enjoy homecourt advantage, but the Heat have the same core players who reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat have struggled with injuries and uncharacteristic inconsistency this season, but they have a better and deeper team than the Hawks. If there is a Play-In Tournament team that could actually win a playoff series--a doubtful proposition, as noted above--the Heat are that team. The Raptors have endured a disappointing season, but they should be able to win two games to salvage this campaign by at least earning a spot in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks' run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke: they went 41-41 that season, and followed that up with records of 43-39 and 41-41 the past two seasons while cycling through four coaches since 2020.
In the Western Conference, I predict that the L.A. Lakers will defeat Minnesota, and New Orleans will defeat Oklahoma City. Then, New Orleans will defeat Minnesota to earn the eighth seed. The media narrative that it is an accomplishment for the Lakers to earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament is baffling; the Lakers feature two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: failing to qualify for the playoffs outright is embarrassing, and losing in the Play-In Tournament should be considered unacceptable. The Utah Jazz' "B" team eviscerated the Lakers in the paint by a 76-50 margin in the last game of the regular season with playoff positioning on the line for the Lakers, putting a dent in the notion that the Lakers have become some kind of defensive juggernaut since the trade deadline--but the Lakers won the game, mainly because of some improbable three point marksmanship (8-14) from LeBron James, who posted one of the lowest three point shooting percentages of his career this season, and who made at least five three pointers in a game just five other times all season long. The Lakers have performed better recently because Anthony Davis has been healthy and thus has been active at both ends of the court, but the Lakers are what their overall record suggest that they are: at best, a lower tier playoff team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have never been known for their collective basketball IQ--to put it charitably--but their multiple meltdowns during the last game of the season are as baffling as they are damaging: Rudy Gobert was sent home at halftime after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall. Somehow, the Timberwolves still beat the Pelicans, though perhaps that is not shocking considering that the Timberwolves often played better this season without Gobert. McDaniels is likely out for whatever remains of the Timberwolves' season, while Gobert's status has yet to be publicly determined.
If James cannot lead the Lakers to a home win against the dysfunctional Timberwolves, even his staunchest allies in the press corps will have a difficult time buying whatever excuses he offers.
The Pelicans are talented and scrappy even without the perpetually
injured Zion Williamson, and I like their chances to beat the
Timberwolves in a rematch of the regular season finale.
The NBA does not include Play-In Tournament statistics with either their regular season statistics or their playoff statistics, which reinforces the reality that these games are less about competition than about an opportunity to make more money--and we know that the NBA cares about profits more than anything else. For the record, in 2021 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Boston, Washington, L.A. Lakers), and in 2022 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Minnesota); to review my previous Play-Tournament predictions and commentary, check out the links below.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2022
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
2021
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Play-In Tournament, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM
The NBA Was Much Better When Load Management and Tanking Did Not Exist
A lot has changed in the NBA in the past 40 years, and many of the changes are not improvements. NBA players used to have complete skill sets; no one talked about "two way players" because the expectation was that all players--and particularly the star players--at least competed on defense, even if they were not exceptional defenders. Most of the top scorers had a variety of fundamental moves that did not involve traveling or flopping and flailing.
The NBA game was not only more fundamentally sound and aesthetically pleasing, but the players actually showed up to games on a consistent basis. If you bought a ticket to go to a game to see your favorite player play, he almost certainly played. In 1982-83--when Moses Malone and Julius Erving led the Philadelphia 76ers on a glorious, record-setting 12-1 playoff run culminating in a 4-0 NBA Finals sweep of the defending champion L.A. Lakers--39
NBA players played in all 82 regular season games, and Clemon Johnson
played in 83 regular season games (51 with Indiana, followed by 32 with
Philadelphia). An additional 22 players played in 81 regular season
games. Those numbers were typical for that era; in 1981-82, 42 players
played in all 82 regular season games, and three players played in more
than 82 games, while an additional 21 players played in 81 regular
season games.
It was a given during that era that MVP level players rarely missed games. From 1967-82, the NBA regular season MVP played in 81 or 82 games every year except for 1978, when 1977 NBA Finals MVP Bill Walton captured the regular season MVP despite being limited to 58 games due to injuries--and Walton was not "load managing": he was legitimately injured. Erving won four regular season MVPs during his ABA/NBA career; in those MVP seasons, he played in 84, 84, 84, and 82 games (the ABA regular season lasted 84 games). Malone won three regular season MVPs during his ABA/NBA career; in those MVP seasons, he played in 82, 81, and 78 games.
Playing all 82 games used to be a badge of honor for NBA players.
In contrast, in 2022-23 just nine players played in all 82 games. Mikal Bridges, perhaps the last throwback to a bygone age when the Jedi protected the Republic while the league, teams, and players cared about competition, played in 83 games (56 with Phoenix, followed by 27 with Brooklyn). Bridges entered the NBA in 2018-19, and he has yet to miss a game.
The creation of the Play-In Tournament was supposed to minimize load management and tanking by incentivizing teams to play hard for all 82 games with the hope of at least earning the coveted 10th seed. Predictably, that is not how things have turned out. Last Friday, the Dallas Mavericks--with a chance to grab the Western Conference's 10th seed with a win and some help from other teams--rested every main player on their roster dating all the way back to Mark Aguirre. Luka Doncic played a whopping 12 minutes so that he could get credit for a game played, but he sat out the final three quarters of what turned out to be a 115-112 loss to the Chicago Bulls. The NBA is reportedly investigating the Mavericks for this blatant tanking. In 2018, the NBA fined Dallas owner Mark Cuban $600,000 for publicly stating "Losing is our best option." Since $600,000 did not prove to be sufficient to curb Cuban's tanking, I suggest that $1,200,000 plus forfeiting the draft pick that the Mavericks were trying to protect by losing on purpose might get Cuban's attention--and yes, I understand that the NBA is unlikely to do that, but if the league is serious about putting an end to tanking then Commissioner Adam Silver must impose penalties that convey that seriousness.
Also, the NBA's tanking investigation should not be limited to the Dallas Mavericks. Golden State just beat a team wearing Portland uniforms that did not feature the Trail Blazers' core players; the individual and team statistics from that 157-101 blowout--including Golden State's record 55 point first quarter--are meaningless, and the predetermined outcome of the game not only impacted playoff seeding but also had potential wagering implications (which matters now because the NBA and other sports leagues have intertwined their operations with wagering businesses).
The toxic combination of tanking and load management cheats the fans who buy tickets to see their favorite players, compromises the integrity of playoff seeding, devalues individual and team statistics, and creates a host of issues regarding legalized wagering. There is a simple response to anyone who claims that "the science" proves that load management protects player health and safety: use "the science" to determine how many games players can safely play, limit the season to that number of games, and set the expectation that players will participate in a full season unless they have a legitimate injury.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Julius Erving, load management, Mikal Bridges, Moses Malone, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers, tanking
posted by David Friedman @ 11:42 PM
Updating the 100/100 Club From 2016-2023
In my December 31, 2015 article The 100-100 Club Revisited, I updated the membership roster through the 2014-15 season for the exclusive club of pro basketball players who have tallied at least 100 steals and at least 100 blocked shots in the same season. I first examined this subject in the April 2022 issue of Basketball Digest, and then I discussed it again at NBCSports.com in 2006 (subsequently updated at 20 Second Timeout to include the 2006-07 season). I also keep track of the 200-100 Club (200 steals and 100 blocked shots in the same season), the 100-200 Club (100 steals and 200 blocked shots in the same season), and the Top 10 Club (players who ranked in the top 10 in both steals per game and blocked shots per game in the same season).
From the 2015-2016 season through the 2022-23 season, six players recorded a total of 10 100-100 Club seasons. Paul Millsap (2016), Draymond Green (2016, 2017), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2017, 2018) are the 100-100 Club's three newest members. Andre Drummond joined the club in 2014, and made three more appearances (2016, 2018, 2019) since 2015. Nerlens Noel joined the 100-100 Club in 2015, and he qualified again in 2016. Anthony Davis also joined the 100-100 Club in 2015, and he made his second appearance in 2018.
Drummond is the last NBA player to reach the 100-100 milestone. The 2020
and 2021 seasons were shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic, but even after
the NBA schedule returned to normal in 2022 no players posted 100-100
seasons in 2022 or 2023.
The 100-100 Club has 61 members, with 30 of those players accomplishing the feat just once. Julius Erving and Hakeem Olajuwon hold the record with 12 such seasons. The rest of the all-time top 10 includes Kevin Garnett (eight 100-100 seasons), Sam Lacey (seven),
David Robinson (seven), Ben Wallace (seven), Bobby Jones (six), George
Gervin (five), Vlade Divac (five) and Shawn Marion (five).
The 200-100 Club and 100-200 Club did not gain new members since 2015. The 200-100 Club has four members: Michael Jordan (twice), Julius Erving, Hakeem Olajuwon and Scottie Pippen. The 100-200 Club has 14 members; the only players with at least two 100-200 seasons are Olajuwon (11), David Robinson (seven), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (three), Ben Wallace (three), Terry Tyler (two), Patrick Ewing (two), Andrei Kirilenko (two), and Josh Smith (two).
In 2018-19, Drummond became the 10th member of the Top 10 Club, ranking eighth in steals per game and eighth in blocked shots per game. Drummond ranked third in steals per game and ninth in blocked shots per game in 2019-20.
Erving holds the record with six Top 10 Club seasons, two more than Olajuwon had. Bobby Jones (two), Ben Wallace (two), and Andre Drummond (two) are the only other players with more than one Top 10 Club season.
Labels: Andre Drummond, Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hakeem Olajuwon, Julius Erving, Nerlens Noel, Paul Millsap
posted by David Friedman @ 9:47 PM
