2011-12 Western Conference Preview
Last season, 15 wins separated the top regular season team in the West--the 61-21 San Antonio Spurs--from the eighth seeded 46-36 Memphis Grizzlies, a marked contrast from recent seasons in which most of the West's playoff contenders were closely bunched together; just seven wins separated the eight playoff teams in both 2008 and 2010, while in 2009 only six wins separated the seven playoff teams other than the dominant 2009 Lakers. It is likely that the final Western Conference standings in the compressed 66 game 2011-12 season will once again be very tightly packed, meaning that playoff seedings and homecourt advantage could be determined by how well teams perform in the third game of a back to back to back set--a scenario that does not bode well for teams that lack depth and/or heavily rely on older players.
This preview has the same format as the
Eastern Conference preview that I posted yesterday; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals and not necessarily in the order that the teams will be seeded during the playoffs (which is affected by which teams win division championships).
1) Oklahoma City Thunder:
Reasons for hope: The Thunder, led by All-NBA players Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, advanced to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 1996, when the franchise was based in Seattle. The Thunder won 55 games--the franchise's best total since Seattle won 61 in 1998--and captured a division title for the first time since 2005. Late season addition Kendrick Perkins, who should be healthier this season after battling a knee problem last year, provides strength and toughness in the paint, while James Harden, Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefolosha are a young and talented supporting cast.
Reasons to mope: This current nucleus made its first playoff appearance in 2010 on the basis of strong defensive play, ranking third in defensive three point field goal percentage, seventh in overall defensive field goal percentage and 11th in points allowed; the Thunder slipped to 18th, 15th and 18th respectively in those categories in 2011, so in order to secure the top seed in the West they must recapture their defensive focus and intensity. Durant has shot just .423 from the field and .326 from three point range in 23 career playoff games so he must prove that he can score efficiently against elite defenses in postseason play. Much has been made of a supposed power struggle between Durant and Westbrook and, while this does bear watching, I suspect that this storyline is overblown.
Bottom line: The Thunder have all the necessary ingredients to be a championship team: two star players, a good and versatile supporting cast and the ability to defend all areas of the court; the final challenge for this young team is to put everything together when the stakes are highest and consistently execute at both ends of the court against elite teams in postseason play.
2) Dallas Mavericks:
Reasons for hope: Dirk Nowitzki showed the world what knowledgeable basketball observers already knew: he is one of the few legit franchise players in the NBA, which is a lot different than being the
flavor of the week favorite of fans and/or "stat gurus"; many players are described as "elite" or "great" but at any given point in time there are only a handful of truly great players in the NBA, players who are unguardable even at the highest levels of playoff competition and who can carry an appropriately constructed roster to a championship. Nowitzki has been a
model of consistency throughout his career but Dallas' collapse in the 2006 NBA Finals followed by the Mavericks' upset loss in the first round of the 2007 playoffs left an unfair and unwarranted stain on Nowitzki's reputation.
Reasons to mope: Tyson Chandler's departure will likely hurt the Mavericks more than it will help the New York Knicks; Chandler will be one defender adrift in a sea of defensive ineptitude with the Knicks but the more disciplined Mavericks are actually trying to play defense and will struggle to replace Chandler's paint presence. The Mavericks will also miss J.J. Barea's grit, quickness and clutch shooting. Barea has never averaged 10 ppg in the regular season and he averaged just 8.9 ppg on .419 field goal shooting during the 2011 playoffs but those numbers just show how deceptive statistics can be when taken out of context; his dribble penetration completely broke down the Lakers during the playoffs and so frustrated Andrew Bynum that Bynum delivered a cheap shot resulting in a five game suspension: Barea hit the Lakers so hard that they will still feel it this season!
Bottom line: The Mavericks replaced Chandler, Barea and Caron Butler (who did not participate in the Mavericks' playoff run due to injury and then signed with the L.A. Clippers after the lockout ended) with Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West. Odom is often praised for his versatility but the one skill set area in which he is truly outstanding is rebounding; the Lakers deployed him at power forward alongside either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum but the Mavericks can only use Odom at power forward if Nowitzki is on the bench or playing center--and the Mavericks are not at their best in either of those situations. Look for Odom's minutes and production to decline. Carter used to be one of the most dynamic slashers in the game but now he is mostly a spot up shooter. West is a versatile, tough player who is not great in any one area but also has no real skill set weaknesses; if his mind is right and his body is healthy he can be a real asset for the Mavericks because he can play either guard spot.
The Mavericks had some good fortune during last season's title run--the top seeded Spurs were knocked out in the first round, while the two-time defending champion Lakers had an injured Kobe Bryant and a seemingly lost in a fog Pau Gasol--but they also demonstrated tremendous toughness, determination and unselfishness. As an aging, one-star team they do not look like a dynasty in the making but they will still be one of the better teams in the West and they have a puncher's chance to repeat as champions; they cannot honestly be considered the favorite by any objective observer--it is obvious that owner Mark Cuban is more focused on clearing cap space for 2012 than he is on putting the absolute best possible unit on the court this season--but if they are healthy they will be tough to deal with in a seven game series.
3) San Antonio Spurs:
Reasons for hope: The Spurs have three All-Star caliber players plus a great coach and they posted the best record in the West last season, just one game behind Chicago for the best record overall. If they had been fully healthy during the playoffs it is doubtful that they would have lost in the first round.
Reasons to mope: Tim Duncan, while still a very good player, is no longer the dominant force that he was during his prime either as a scorer or as a mobile defender who could both guard the other team's best big man one on one and also play excellent help defense against perimeter players who penetrated into the lane. During the Spurs' championship seasons Duncan always had at least one legit big man playing alongside him but that has not been the case in recent seasons. The Spurs cannot seem to quite decide whether to break up their veteran nucleus or make one last run at a title so they ended up doing neither: they kept their big three intact but did not add any significant supporting parts.
Bottom line: The Spurs will be well coached and well disciplined; they will be better equipped than most teams mentally and psychologically to deal with the compressed season. The Spurs will likely earn a top four seed and if they are healthy they should be able to make a decent playoff run but getting past both Oklahoma City and Dallas is asking a bit much.
4) Memphis Grizzlies:
Reasons for hope: The Grizzlies won six out of seven games late in the season to hold on to the eighth and final playoff spot and then pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NBA history by knocking off the number one seeded San Antonio Spurs. The Grizzlies then pushed the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games and they accomplished all of this despite the absence of Rudy Gay, their injured small forward who has averaged at least 18.9 ppg in each of the past four seasons. Zach Randolph provided All-Star caliber play on the block and teamed up well with young center Marc Gasol.
Reasons to mope: Young teams that suddenly enjoy a lot of success can either use this as a stepping stone to build upon or a stumbling block to trip over. The Grizzlies will not sneak up on anyone this season and we have seen some upstart teams have one great season only to fall right back into the Draft Lottery (the 2007 Golden State Warriors immediately come to mind). Only time will tell if the Grizzlies caught San Antonio at just the right time or if that first round series really marked a changing of the guard in the West.
Bottom line: I am not completely sold on the Grizzlies as a legit championship contender but I think that they have a lot more substance than a team like the 2007 Warriors. The Grizzlies need to stick with the hard-nosed play that helped them to be successful while also finding a way to integrate Gay's skills into the Randolph-focused offensive attack. It must be mentioned that the foundation for Memphis' success last season was based largely on the much criticized deal that sent Pau Gasol to the L.A. Lakers; that trade not only brought Marc Gasol to Memphis but also cleared the salary cap space to sign Randolph. A few years earlier, the Lakers traded Shaquille O'Neal to Miami, a deal that helped Miami to win one championship but also enabled the Lakers to reshape their roster and win two championships (plus make a third trip to the Finals). Sometimes a trade can help one team in the short run while helping the other team in the long run; it is way too early to suggest that the current Memphis nucleus will win a championship but the Grizzlies clearly understood that a Pau Gasol-led team would never win a championship and thus they made the right decision to trade him and rebuild their roster around younger, tougher big men. Just three years after that so-called lopsided deal the Grizzlies are already better than the Lakers, something that I doubt any of the so-called "experts" expected when they made jokes about Jerry West supposedly "giving" Pau Gasol to his former team.
5) L.A. Clippers:
Reasons for hope: Blake Griffin is not just a highlight machine; he can also rebound, pass and handle the ball. He still needs to develop a reliable jump shot and improve his defense but he already looks poised to become a perennial member of the All-NBA team. Chris Paul is a feisty floor general who can pass, shoot and play tough defense despite his diminutive stature. Chauncey Billups is a clutch shooter who apparently will start at shooting guard but he will likely also get some playing time at point guard, his natural position. If Caron Butler stays healthy he will add toughness and scoring punch. DeAndre Jordan will once again rank among the league leaders in both dunks and blocked shots.
Reasons to mope: It is understandable why people are so excited about the Clippers but this is not a championship caliber team. The Clippers have too many point guards and not enough shooting guards; it is asking a bit much to have the aging, 6-3 Billups chase around starting shooting guards for 30-plus mpg. The Clippers also need to develop some frontcourt depth. While Billups has won a championship and Paul has been to the playoffs, collectively this group has no playoff experience together.
Bottom line: The Clippers missed the playoffs by 14 games last season, which is a significant margin, but Griffin's likely improvement alone would probably have been worth at least 10 games and the addition of Paul and Billups should enable the Clippers to potentially contend for a top four seed.
6) L.A. Lakers:
Reasons for hope: It is still possible that the Lakers will pull off a trade for Dwight Howard--and if they are able to get a third team involved in the deal perhaps the Lakers can obtain Howard for Andrew Bynum and other considerations while retaining Pau Gasol's services. A trio of Kobe Bryant-Dwight Howard-Pau Gasol--even surrounded by journeymen--would be more formidable than the Miami Heat's celebrated trio because the Lakers' triumvirate would be bigger and would have complementary skill sets. The only other reason for hope is that the lockout-lengthened offseason provided enough rest for Kobe Bryant's weary body to rejuvenate itself but that hope was at least somewhat dashed in the first half of the first preseason game when Bryant tore a ligament in his right wrist. Bryant will no doubt at least attempt to play through the injury even though from a medical standpoint he should sit out two to three weeks to let it heal properly (by the time Bryant is 50, his mangled fingers and hands will likely rival those of ex-NFL players Anthony Munoz and Chuck Bednarik in terms of disfigurement). Whether or not the Lakers acquire Howard, the Lakers will have no depth and will thus rely more on Bryant's scoring and playmaking than at any time since Kwame Brown and Smush Parker were key rotation players.
Reasons to mope: Although the mainstream media apparently did not realize it, the Lakers lacked depth even before they shipped off Lamar Odom in a salary dump; Andrew Bynum's injury problems made Odom a de facto starter for most of the past three seasons (Odom averaged more than 30 mpg and started 105 games during that period) and the next best Lakers' bench player (Shannon Brown) played fewer than 1000 total minutes in his first three seasons before arriving in L.A. and instantly becoming a key member of the rotation.
The Lakers won back to back championships and made it to three straight NBA Finals primarily because of Kobe Bryant's greatness; Pau Gasol proved to be a reliable second option, Lamar Odom found a comfort zone as the third option and Andrew Bynum's size was valuable in those rare moments when he was healthy but Bryant's scoring prowess, playmaking ability (he drew the double teams that opened up shots for his teammates even on plays for which Bryant did not deliver the assist pass), defense and leadership spearheaded the Lakers' dominance from 2008-2010. During the Dallas Mavericks' four game sweep of the two-time defending champion Lakers we saw what happens to the Lakers when Bryant is unable to take over games at will (i.e., we received a glimpse at what the Lakers will look like--barring a roster upgrade--as Bryant ages and his skills inevitably decline); an ankle injury that many players would not have even played through relegated Bryant from All-NBA First Team caliber to "just" solid All-Star caliber (Bryant averaged 23.3 ppg on .458 field goal shooting versus the Mavericks but his limited mobility slashed his rebounding to 3.0 rpg and his assists to 3.3 apg, both figures well below his regular season averages). Meanwhile, Pau Gasol played some of the worst basketball of his NBA career and Lamar Odom hardly picked up the slack, authoring a very pedestrian postseason after producing one of the better regular seasons of his career.
For many years, so-called "experts" have insisted that the Lakers are very talented and very deep, with some "stat gurus" even proclaiming that Gasol and/or Odom are more valuable than Bryant; in contrast, I have
demonstrated that the 2009 Lakers were neither as talented nor as deep as most championship teams of the past two decades,
explained that Bryant's impact on his team cannot be fully quantified statistically and
pointed out that playing alongside Bryant transformed Gasol from a one-time All-Star into a perennial All-Star by shifting Gasol into a more comfortable role as his team's second offensive option. I have never believed that Gasol is the Lakers' best player or that he is capable of being the best player on a legitimate championship contender and I have consistently stated that the day Gasol truly is the Lakers' best player is the day that the Lakers are no longer true contenders.
Bottom line: Welcome to L.A., Mike Brown; the fans and oddsmakers consider your team to be among the favorites to win the championship and you will be heavily criticized if the Lakers do not prove to be serious contenders but your best player already has a damaged shooting hand that will likely be a problem for the entire season (because Bryant will refuse to rest his wrist it will not completely heal until the summer), your second best player seems to be unwilling or unable to pick up the slack and your third best player was just shipped to the defending champions. Brown is a very good coach and at this point in his career his youthful energy and his focus on defense may make him better suited to guide the Lakers than Phil Jackson, whose hands off approach backfired last season (Jackson is arguably the greatest coach in NBA history but last season was hardly one of the shining moments of his otherwise glittering career)--but Brown has been placed in a very difficult situation in which the expectations are much greater than they should be considering the team's current roster.
If the Lakers acquire Dwight Howard and if Kobe Bryant stays reasonably healthy (i.e., his right wrist does not fall off and his right knee survives the compressed schedule) then the Lakers can make a run at the 2012 title while also positioning themselves to build around Howard in the future as Bryant's role gradually diminishes; if the Lakers stand pat and/or Bryant suffers injuries that cause him to miss significant playing time then the Lakers will not be serious contenders and could even miss the playoffs,
a possibility that I mentioned back in May when I bluntly outlined the Lakers' likely future:
If you understand how the Lakers achieved the success that they did from 2008-2010 and you understand what went wrong in 2011 then you can only draw one conclusion: the Lakers as presently constituted are not likely to qualify for the playoffs in 2011-12. If you think that statement sounds crazy then consider the reality that since 2008 the eighth seeded team in the West has won 50, 48, 50 and 46 games; four of the Lakers' five starters started all 82 games in 2010-11, with Odom filling in for Bynum when Bynum was hurt, and the Lakers ended up with 57 wins. If the Lakers keep the current roster intact it is highly likely that they will not enjoy similar health at the top of their rotation and it is also highly likely that Bryant's minutes will have to be further reduced as a concession to all of the mileage that he has accumulated; every minute that Bryant is not on the court is a minute that must be filled by one of the Lakers' ineffective bench players.
The Lakers clearly cannot expect Gasol to eventually become the team's number one option nor is it a good idea to hand that role to Bynum, a player who has yet to make it through an entire season while playing starter's minutes. Artest provides almost nothing on offense and his focus on defense wavers at times; without Jackson on the bench Artest may revert back to being completely uncoachable.
I probably should not have even ranked the Lakers as high as sixth but, despite my misgivings about this roster, I still think that Bryant and Brown will find some way to get this team into the playoffs (I also think that it is possible that the Lakers could acquire Howard after the All-Star break and overcome a slow start to make the playoffs as a low but dangerous seed).
7) Portland Trail Blazers:
Reasons for hope: Nate McMillan is an outstanding, defensive-minded coach who has guided this team to the playoffs for three straight seasons despite injuries that have taken out several key players. LaMarcus Aldridge emerged as an All-Star caliber performer.
Reasons to mope: A degenerative knee condition forced Brandon Roy--a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA selection--to retire. Greg Oden, who the Blazers selected ahead of Kevin Durant in the 2007 Draft, has suffered his annual injury setback and it is not clear when he will be back in action. The only major addition to the roster is Jamal Crawford, a good player but hardly a replacement for what a healthy Roy could have provided.
Bottom line: McMillan will somehow drag this crew into the playoffs, but they will lose in the first round for the fourth straight year.
8) Denver Nuggets:
Reasons for hope: Under Coach George Karl's deft leadership, the Nuggets survived last season's "Melo-drama" and then actually played even better after trading Carmelo Anthony to New York than they did before Anthony's departure, going 17-7 down the stretch to move up to the fifth seed in the West.
Reasons to mope: Although Anthony is somewhat overrated--as indicated not only by Denver's record without him but also by New York's record with him (14-13)--the Nuggets do not have a legit star player and it is one thing to get by for a couple dozen games with no star and another thing to do so for an entire season. Seemingly half of Denver's roster went to China during the lockout (actually, it was just Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler) and while the subtraction of Martin and Smith reduces the intangible but relevant knucklehead factor it also removes two key players from Karl's rotation (Chandler did not receive much playing time); the China guys will be permitted to return to action in March and it will be interesting to see what Denver's record is by that time and how exactly the Nuggets go about adding players to their rotation in the middle of a crazy season with a compressed schedule and little practice time.
Bottom line: I was tempted to leave the Nuggets out of the playoff mix entirely but they did win 50 games last season and they at least gave some signs that there is life after Melo so I cannot completely write them off--but it will probably take 35-37 wins to make the playoffs in the West and there certainly are some other teams that can work their way up to that level and pass the Nuggets.
The Golden State Warriors intrigue me: their young roster could give many teams fits by playing at a fast tempo in this truncated season and they have a new coach (Mark Jackson) who is pledging that the Warriors will be much improved defensively. It would not shock me if they make the playoffs. The Utah Jazz have acquired a lot of potentially valuable young assets but they fell apart during the second half of the season in the wake of Coach Jerry Sloan's resignation and the Deron Williams trade so even though their future may be bright they do not look like a 2012 playoff qualifier.
Much praise has been heaped on Houston General Manager Daryl Morey for his supposedly deft number crunching but the bottom line number is that his Rockets have won just one playoff series since he took the reins in 2007; yes, the Rockets suffered injuries to All-Stars Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady but there is little evidence to date that the Rockets have much of a plan in place to lift themselves out of mediocrity and other GMs/coaches with better records than Morey have not received as much time on the job as he has. The main thing that Morey has accomplished so far is to convince some members of the media that he has access to special knowledge about the sport, even if at times
the results on the court ultimately do not match his predictions or observations. I actually think that Morey uses statistics more sensibly than most "stat gurus" but sports is a bottom line business and the bottom line is that Morey's teams have not been very successful in the postseason (a fault that is also true of Billy Beane's Oakland A's). Morey just replaced a respected and proven winner (Coach Rick Adelman) with Kevin McHale, a great player who has yet to prove that he is a great coach. I know that the "stat gurus" giddily anticipate the magic that Morey is supposedly about to pull off with all of the cap space he has saved but the Knicks spent years saving cap space only to end up with Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and a .500 team that lost in the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets' starless roster will likely make a run at the last playoff spot but fall just short, whereupon the "stat gurus" will come out of the woodwork to explain how brilliant Morey is even though his teams have not, in fact, actually accomplished anything tangible.
The New Orleans Hornets--with the help of their principal owner, Commissioner David Stern--
managed to obtain some decent assets in the Chris Paul deal (most notably, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and salary cap space) that will be useful in the near future but will not likely enable the Hornets to qualify for the 2012 playoffs. The Minnesota Timberwolves upgraded at coach (replacing Kurt Rambis with Rick Adelman) and Kevin Love had a breakout campaign but it is doubtful that in one season they will vault from last in the conference to one of the top eight spots.
If anyone knows what Phoenix' plan is please enlighten me.
The Sacramento Kings have been stockpiling young talent for years but have not won 30 games in a season since 2007-08--but if a "stat guru" were running the team I am sure that his media buddies would be regaling us with tales about how brilliant he is; apparently there are two kinds of successful NBA executives: those who win championships (the dominant teams of the past decade or so--the Lakers and the Spurs--do not seem to rely much on "advanced basketball statistics") and those who convince media mouthpieces of their brilliance despite the fact that they have never won anything.
**********
Note:
I
correctly picked five of the eight 2011 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2011 Total: 38/48 (.792)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 AM
2011-12 Eastern Conference Preview
The 2011-12 NBA season will be abbreviated, condensed and probably very sloppy, much like the even more abbreviated and condensed 50 game sprint that followed the 1998 NBA lockout. Rosters have been thrown together hastily and players cannot possibly be in game condition; all of this randomness and chaos means that it is even more difficult than usual to make accurate predictions.
The "stat gurus" breathlessly told us prior to last season that the Miami Heat were about to win 90 out of 82 games before cruising to the first of many championships; I predicted that the Heat would have a strong regular season--but fall short of the win totals posted by LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers in the previous two seasons--before losing to an elite defensive team in the playoffs. James' superlative play in the Eastern Conference playoffs--and injuries to key opposing players--enabled the Heat to get by Boston and Chicago but in the NBA Finals
the one-star Dallas Mavericks outshined the three-star Heat.
As long as the Heat's "Big Three" are healthy and in their primes Miami has to be considered a legitimate championship contender but--after James failed to win a championship with the deepest team in the league (the 2009 and 2010 Cleveland Cavaliers, squads that each boasted at least 10 players who had recently started for playoff teams) and then failed to win a championship despite being part of the league's most talented trio--it is fair to ask what it will take for the league's most productive regular season player to capture his first title.
Derrick Rose does not have a single top 25 player next to him in Chicago but rather than searching for supposedly greener pastures he just signed a contract extension and he seems poised to keep the Bulls at or near the top of the Eastern Conference for the next several seasons. Despite Boston's hopes and New York's fantasies, the Eastern Conference will likely be a two horse race this season and--contrary to what many other commentators may believe--the Bulls have more room to grow than the Heat.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs; as usual, I have ranked the teams based on the likelihood that they will make it to the NBA Finals (as opposed to how they will be seeded in the playoffs, which is affected by which teams win division titles).
1) Chicago Bulls:
Reasons for hope: Derrick Rose became the second youngest MVP in ABA/NBA history (22 years old; Spencer Haywood was just 20 when he won the 1970 ABA MVP) and first year Coach Tom Thibodeau transformed a very good defense into a suffocating defense. The team's one problem last season--other than injuries to key frontcourt players--was a lack of offensive production from the shooting guard spot but newly acquired sharpshooter Richard Hamilton should provide a solid complement to Rose's slashing forays to the hoop.
Reasons to mope: The Bulls, like the 2011 champion Dallas Mavericks, only have one true star, so it is important that their key rotation players remain committed to defense and rebounding and that they stay reasonably healthy; injuries and/or lack of effort from other players could place too big of a burden on Rose.
Bottom line: I did not expect the Bulls to be as good as they were last season but after watching them play I don't think that their success was a fluke: Rose moved his game up a notch and Coach Thibodeau worked wonders with an already solid defense. The Bulls should be fighting for at least the Eastern Conference title for the next several years; while the Heat's best players have likely peaked in terms of their individual skill sets, Rose and several of his young teammates still can improve both individually and collectively.
2) Miami Heat:
Reasons for hope: LeBron James has been the most productive regular season player in the NBA for the past three years, Dwyane Wade is one of the NBA's top five or six players and Chris Bosh is one of the NBA's top 15-20 players: no other NBA team has three top 15 players and no NBA team has had two top five players since the Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant Lakers won three straight championships from 2000-02 and made another NBA Finals appearance in 2004. It has become fashionable to make excuses for the Heat based on the composition of the rest of their roster but in a watered-down 30 team NBA no other squad has the luxury of trotting out three great players who are each in the primes of their careers. Dirk Nowitzki just won a championship without playing alongside a single current All-Star and Kobe Bryant won back to back titles with a sidekick who had previously made just one All-Star team in seven years, so if the Heat fail to win a title the fault lies with their stars and not with their underlings.
Reasons to mope: In the last two postseasons, LeBron James has literally stood passively in the corner while his team lost to squads that had worse regular season records and did not have a single player who could match up with him one on one physically or in terms of regular season productivity; James' supporters whined that he could not win a championship with his supporting cast in Cleveland but James' star-studded Heat just lost in the Finals to a one-star Dallas team so it is legitimate to ask just how much help James needs to win his first NBA title.
The Heat's championship contending window is probably not as large as many people think; each year that the Heat fail to win a title there will be increasing pressure to break up the Big Three and, although their stars are in their primes, it is unlikely that any of them will get appreciably better: we have probably already seen the best individual seasons from James, Wade and Bosh, though Heat fans of course hope that we have yet to see the best collective output from that group.
Wade is the oldest member of the Heat's power trio and he is also the most injury-prone, so he will likely be the first one to decline; that should not happen this season (Wade will turn 30 next month) but his health is hardly a sure thing in a 66 game sprint.
Bottom line: Some people insist--despite all visible contradictory evidence--that the Heat are Dwyane Wade's team, so it is worth noting that James led the Heat in minutes played, scoring, assists and steals while placing second in rebounding. James shot better than Wade from the field, from three point range and even from the free throw line (barely). When James was dominant the Heat looked unbeatable, even when Wade performed poorly (i.e., in the Chicago series); when James hid in the corner (i.e., in the Finals), Wade could not save the day and the Heat lost. The Heat have three stars but there is no question who is the biggest star.
The above critiques of James are not meant to suggest that he is incapable of winning a championship--that would be a foolish contention to make about such a talented player and I am not a fool. James is the best regular season player in the NBA and he has had some great playoff moments but in order to get over the championship hump he must address the few remaining--but glaring--weaknesses in his game: he still struggles to score outside of the paint against elite defenses and when he is challenged mentally and physically by elite teams in a playoff series he has shown a stunning tendency to quit and to place the burden on his teammates, which is exactly the opposite of what we have seen from
Pantheon-level players. James does not necessarily have to win a championship to join the Pantheon--Elgin Baylor is an all-time great despite being ringless--but if James is fortunate enough to make it back to the Finals he must play a lot more effectively and a lot more aggressively than he did in his first two appearances on the NBA's biggest stage.
3) Boston Celtics:
Reasons for hope: While the Heat easily have the league's best trio, the Celtics probably sport the league's best quartet: aging future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen plus young All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo. The defensive-minded former champions probably are capable of making one more deep playoff run if they can stay reasonably healthy.
Reasons to mope: Due to various moves plus Jeff Green's recently discovered heart ailment, in the past year or so the Celtics have essentially lost Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, Nenad Krstic and Delonte West in exchange for Brandon Bass, Keyon Dooling and two rookies who likely will not contribute very much this season. There will be a lot of pressure on Rondo plus the Geriatric Three to log heavy minutes night after night.
Bottom line: If the Celtics somehow stay healthy while Chicago and Miami each suffer a key injury then the Celtics could steal the Eastern Conference crown. Danny Ainge's avid pursuit of Chris Paul--even at the expense of Rondo, a younger and healthier All-Star point guard--indicates that the Celtics do not consider the above scenario to be highly likely to happen.
4) Philadelphia 76ers:
Reasons for hope: The 76ers recovered from a 3-13 start to qualify for the playoffs and even win a playoff game against the eventual Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat. Coach Doug Collins got the most out of his young, starless roster and several of his players figure to be even better this season.
Reasons to mope: Championship teams generally must have at least one All-NBA caliber player; such a player is either not on this roster or has not emerged so far. The pattern during Collins' coaching career is that he is excellent at turning a team around quickly but not necessarily capable of taking a team all the way to the top.
Bottom line: After the top three spots, the rest of the Eastern Conference is up for grabs and I think that Collins' coaching will lift the 76ers slightly above some of the more highly touted squads who will be battling for home court advantage in the first round.
5) Indiana Pacers:
Reasons for hope: David West and George Hill are excellent additions to a team that made the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and that already has a solid nucleus of young players.
Reasons to mope: Like the 76ers, the Pacers do not have an All-NBA caliber performer, although West was on the fringe of that status a couple years ago. The Pacers are the "anti-Heat": the Heat have three All-NBA caliber players but are trying to add depth, while the Pacers have a deep rotation of good players but no true star power (West and Danny Granger each would be best suited to being the second or third best player on a championship contending team).
Bottom line: The Knicks have more star power than the Pacers and the Magic have the best center in the league but the Knicks are weak defensively while the Magic will likely be Denver/Utah East this season because of the Dwight Howard drama; in a 66 game sprint, the Pacers' depth and stability should move them past the Knicks and the Magic in the Eastern Conference standings.
6) New York Knicks:
Reasons for hope: The Knicks may have cornered the market on high powered offensive players who cannot/will not play defense: Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Baron Davis (if healthy) will make sure that both sides of the scoreboard read triple digits on a nearly nightly basis. Tyson Chandler, who just served as the defensive anchor for the 2011 NBA champion Dallas Mavericks, will have to deal with the small forwards, power forwards and point guards who blow by New York's shoot first (and second and third) headliners.
Reasons to mope: Most of the Knicks think "defense" is what surrounds their mansions. Anthony and Stoudemire have enough PR savvy to realize that they have to talk about focusing on defense but they each have been in the league a long time--and won many individual honors and accolades--without playing much defense. Baron "my back only hurt while I was in Cleveland" Davis can be very productive when he is healthy and motivated but he has bad wheels and intermittent motivation.
How many perennial All-Stars who are defensively challenged transform themselves into good defenders? Knicks' fans can fantasize by making comparisons of Anthony and Stoudemire to Boston's Paul Pierce and Ray Allen but (1) there is no Kevin Garnett on New York's roster, (2) there is no Doc Rivers on New York's bench (Mike D'Antoni is a good coach but not a defensive-minded coach) and (3) Pierce and Allen were never as bad defensively as Anthony and Stoudemire are.
Bottom line: Are we past the point of blaming Isiah Thomas for everything that goes wrong in New York? For better or worse, most of the players Thomas acquired are no longer on the roster but--despite all of the breathless hype and despite two seasons of clearing cap space in a futile attempt to lure LeBron James to the Big Apple--the 2011 Knicks won exactly nine more games than the 2007 Knicks did during Thomas' first season as their coach. As much as some people rave about the Knicks you would never guess that three full seasons after Thomas' departure--and despite the additions of Anthony and Stoudemire--the Knicks improved less in four years than the starless 76ers did in one year. Much to the chagrin of some Knicks fans/"stat gurus," nearly three years ago
I expressed serious skepticism about the Knicks' rebuilding plan and I remain far from convinced that the Anthony-Stoudemire duo will ever accomplish much more than provide ESPN's talking heads a lot of fodder for unfounded predictions of greatness that never quite become reality.
Yes, Chandler's defense helped a squad not previously known for playing good defense to win a title but the Mavericks have a defensive-minded coach and several other defensive-minded players (including Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion). That foundation simply does not exist in New York, so the Knicks will have trouble doing much damage in the playoffs, though I predict that for the next several years the "experts" will annually dub them the "team no one wants to face."
7) Orlando Magic:
Reasons for hope: Dwight Howard is the best center in the league and, as he showed last season, he can carry a strangely constructed, defensively challenged roster to 50-plus wins.
Reasons to mope: Dwight Howard has made it clear that he intends to leave Orlando when he becomes a free agent next summer, which means that Orlando's 2012 season will be much like Denver's 2011 season--a distraction-filled slog during which a team tries to get something for their best player instead of losing him for nothing.
Bottom line: It is impossible to predict how Orlando will do this season; if Howard ultimately commits to Orlando and stays for the whole season then the Magic could realistically contend for the fourth seed but if the Magic trade Howard fairly early in the season then they could miss the playoffs entirely. I suspect that Howard plays in the All-Star Game in Orlando as a member of the Magic and is traded shortly thereafter. The Magic will probably be hanging around the fifth seed prior to Howard's departure and then they will limp into the playoffs before being swept in the first round.
8) Atlanta Hawks:
Reasons for hope: Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith form a solid trio that has led the Hawks to the playoffs for four straight seasons, including three consecutive trips to the second round.
Reasons to mope: Johnson has been an All-Star for each of the past five seasons but he is miscast as a franchise player; he is perfectly suited to being the second best player on a championship-contending squad. Horford has been an All-Star for each of the past two seasons but he is undersized for a center and would be better suited to playing power forward. Josh Smith is one of the most athletically gifted players in the NBA but he lacks the inner drive to transform himself into a truly great player. Thus, the Hawks' three best players are each, to some degree, not well suited for their roles--and the rest of the roster is hardly championship quality.
Bottom line: The Hawks are stuck in NBA purgatory--not good enough to truly contend for a title yet not bad enough to get enough top draft picks to significantly improve their talent base.
The Hawks figure to finish around the .500 mark and the Magic will likely not be too far above that level (assuming that Howard is traded), so if the Milwaukee Bucks stay reasonably healthy and find a way to manufacture some offense then they could sneak into the playoffs. The Charlotte Bobcats only missed the playoffs by three games last season so they have a chance in the weak East but I think that they will fall short again. The Detroit Pistons hired a defensive-minded coach (Lawrence Frank) and added some youth but Joe Dumars'
peculiar fascination with Rodney Stuckey will likely result in a third straight trip to the Draft Lottery. Deron Williams talked his way out of Utah but he could barely lead the New Jersey Nets out of the Atlantic Division basement; the Nets will only make the playoffs if they pull off a trade for Dwight Howard. The Cleveland Cavaliers should not have been as bad as they were last season and an infusion of young talent plus a return to health for Anderson Varejao will lead to much better results but will not be quite enough to reach the .500 mark. The young, athletic Washington Wizards will be exciting to watch as they fight the Toronto Raptors for last place in the East.
**********
Note:
I
correctly picked five of the eight 2010-11 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2011 Total: 35/48 (.729)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 5:43 PM
