Initial Impressions of the Three Team Trade Sending Damian Lillard From Portland to Milwaukee
Once again, the vaunted (and highly paid) NBA insiders were right: Damian Lillard is heading to Miami!
Oh, wait--I mean, Damian Lillard is heading to Toronto!
Never mind--in a deal not predicted by anyone, the Portland Trail Blazers have reportedly shipped Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in a three team trade that will send Jrue Holiday from Milwaukee to Portland. The Phoenix Suns joined the party by trading Deandre Ayton to Portland in exchange for Trail Blazers Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson. The Suns also acquired Milwaukee's Grayson Allen, while Portland is receiving Toumani Camara (the 52nd overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft) from Phoenix, and multiple draft picks from Milwaukee. I emphasize "reportedly" because the same wizards who had no clue that this deal would happen have been the first people to "break" the news before the transactions have been officially confirmed, and we all know the great value of non-emergency "breaking news."
Assuming that what has been reported is accurate--at least in terms of the most prominent players involved in the trade--what should we make of this deal?
Damian Lillard--who valued loyalty above everything until he no longer valued loyalty over everything--averaged a career-high 32.3 ppg last season. He is a dynamic scorer and an excellent passer--and he is also 33 years old, undersized (generously listed as 6-2, but probably shorter), a non-factor (at best) defensively, and injury-prone (he has played in 67 games or less in each of the past four seasons). Lillard is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, which must have surprised and disappointed more deserving players such as Chris Bosh, Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady.
By the way, it is ridiculous to assert that Portland "owed" it to Lillard to trade him wherever he wanted to go. In 2022, Lillard signed a two year $121.77 million contract extension to stay with Portland instead of becoming a free agent; if Lillard wanted to choose his destination on the way out, that was his opportunity--but Lillard understood that no other team would be willing (or able) to pay him as much as Portland did, so he took the cash and gave up the option of choosing where to go on the way out of Portland. During Lillard's Portland career, the Trail Blazers paid him more than $220 million; that is nearly a quarter of a billion dollars, so Portland paid Lillard generational wealth and owes him nothing else. It should also be noted that all of that money bought four playoff series wins spread out over 11 seasons and 12 playoff series. Two of those four playoff series wins happened during Portland's fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals, where "Dame Dolla" and crew got swept by the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant. After 2019, the Trail Blazers lost in the first round in 2020 and 2021 before missing the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. If Lillard's salary was based on being a superstar whose skills correlate with playoff success, then it could be argued he owes Portland!
Jrue Holiday is a 33 year old two-time All-Star who made the All-Defensive Team in each of his three seasons with Milwaukee (and has earned five All-Defensive Team selections overall). He was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 NBA championship team. Last season, he exceeded his career averages (16.4 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.1 rpg) in scoring (19.3 ppg), assists (7.4 apg), and rebounding (5.1 rpg). His shooting splits last season were .479/.384/.859, but his playoff shooting splits have consistently been worse than that throughout his career.
Deandre Ayton has averaged a double double in each of his five NBA seasons, and his career averages of 16.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg are quite good for a player who has never been the first (or second) option. Nevertheless, something is missing in terms of attitude/motor--or, at least that is the Suns' story--so it is not surprising that the Suns parted ways with the talented big man.
A good rule of thumb is that the "winner" of an NBA trade is the team that received the best player. Conventional wisdom would say that Lillard is clearly the best player and thus Milwaukee clearly won the deal--but it must be remembered that Milwaukee's primary goal is to win as many championships as possible before Giannis Antetokounmpo retires (or leaves via free agency), so Milwaukee only "won" if Lillard is a better fit on a championship team than Holiday. This is not about "logo shots" or marketing or popularity. The Bucks won one championship in three seasons with Holiday; it will be interesting to see (1) if Lillard has three productive seasons left and (2) if Milwaukee wins three, two, one, or zero championships in the next three seasons.
I planned to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference before this trade, and I still plan to pick Milwaukee to win the Eastern Conference now--but I am skeptical of the notion that the Bucks are significantly better after swapping Holiday for Lillard. I like the Bucks because of Antetokounmpo's greatness, and his ability to bring out the best in his teammates, not because of Lillard's "logo shots" and situational loyalty.
As for Portland, the Trail Blazers were going nowhere fast with Lillard, and they are going nowhere fast now--but that does not mean this was a bad trade for them. Lillard put them over a barrel by not only demanding to be traded but by insisting that he would only play for Miami, a statement that limited his trade value and curtailed Portland's options. Portland General Manager Joe Cronin deserves credit for not caving in to Lillard and for creating a better deal than anyone thought he could.
The Suns will ride or die with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal doing the heavy lifting. If each member of that trio is healthy and productive, the Suns will be formidable. Nurkic may fit in better than Ayton from a chemistry standpoint, but Ayton and Nurkic are comparable in terms of overall talent/impact (though their skill sets are not identical). However, Nurkic is injury-prone, so chemistry will not matter unless he is actually on the court.
The bottom line is that each team needed to make a move, for different reasons. The Trail Blazers had to get the most that they could for the disgruntled Lillard, the Bucks had to do something to appease Antetokounmpo (who has recently made comments suggesting that he might leave in free agency if the roster is not upgraded), and the Suns had to add some depth while also figuring out how to either bring Ayton into the fold or send him on his way.
Thus, from the standpoint of reasonable expectations and available options, each team probably did about as well as possible in this deal.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 AM
