Warriors Take 2-0 Lead as Mavericks Squander Golden Opportunity
The Golden State Warriors overcame a 19 point deficit to post a 126-117 win over the Dallas Mavericks and take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Casual fans may associate the Warriors with three point shooting, but the Warriors' offensive attack has always had more balance than many people realize; the Warriors dominated the Mavericks in the paint in game one, and the Warriors won the paint battle even more convincingly in game two, outscoring the Mavericks 62-30 in the paint on blistering 31-48 (.646) shooting. TNT's Kenny Smith often talks about the importance of getting "two feet in the paint," and he points out that this can be done not only by posting up but also by driving. The Warriors attack the paint first (unless they have a wide open perimeter shot), and then they seek out the best shot after forcing the defense to deal with that paint attack. The Warriors have a lineup full of guards and forwards who can
both initiate a play and finish a play, and this is vividly illustrated by the fact that in this game there were five different Warriors who tied for the team lead with five assists: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and
Andrew Wiggins.
Curry scored a game-high 32 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, including 6-10 from three point range. He also had eight rebounds. Poole added 23 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, including 2-4 from three point range. Thompson had an efficient 15 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, though he made just 1-4 from beyond the arc. The story of the game, though, was Kevon Looney, who bludgeoned the Mavericks with 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Looney shot 10-14 from the field, and he was a major reason that the Warriors again outshot the Mavericks from the field (.561 to .474) and dominated them on the boards (42-30).
Luka Doncic had another exceptional game: 42 points, eight assists, five rebounds, two turnovers, 12-23 field goal shooting in 38 minutes. He needs more help at both ends of the court. Jalen Brunson had a great game overall (31 points, seven rebounds, five assists, 11-19 field goal shooting), but he only had 11 points on 4-9 shooting in the second half as the Warriors took over. Reggie Bullock added 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting, but he only had eight second half points. Six of the other seven Mavericks who played scored six points or less.
The Mavericks led 20-8 less than six minutes after the game began. When Doncic is rolling and the three point shots are falling the Mavericks look tremendous. However, teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting are subject to the reality that this is a high variance way to play. The Mavericks shot 15-27 (.556) from three point range in the first half, and they led 72-58 at halftime--and then they shot 6-18 (.333) from three point range in the second half as the Warriors outscored them 68-45. Excessive reliance on three point shooting is similar to excessive reliance on the "Run and Shoot" offense in football; in either sport, you will lose--no matter how big of an early lead you build--if you cannot control tempo, if you cannot make high percentage plays when the big plays are not there, and if you cannot provide enough defensive resistance.
As Dallas Coach Jason Kidd put it after the game, "When you go 2-13 (on
third quarter three pointers) and you rely on the three, you can die by
the three. And we died in the third quarter by shooting that many threes
and coming up with only two." He added, "We play defense when we play
offense, and we play no defense when we can't score. That's something
that we have to get better at this time of year."
Even after losing the third quarter 25-13, the Mavericks did not trail until 18 seconds after the fourth quarter began, when Otto Porter Jr. hit a three pointer to put the Warriors up, 86-85. After never leading for most of the game, the Warriors never trailed again. On the one hand, it is evident that the Mavericks blew a golden opportunity (pardon the pun) to take homecourt advantage; on the other hand, a team that lives by the three pointer with no backup plan is, as Coach Kidd noted, going to die if those three pointers stop falling (and they almost always stop falling eventually). The Warriors are not a team that is going to sit by idly if their opponent hits a rough patch offensively.
The Mavericks trailed 1-0 in the first round before beating the Utah Jazz in six games, and then they trailed 2-0 in the second round before knocking out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in seven games, so they have proven that they can come from behind to win a playoff series. That being said, prior to the 2022 playoffs the teams that won the first two games of a playoff series won the series 92.4% of the time, and that number rises slightly to 92.8% for teams that won the first two games at home. The cliche that teams that win the first two games "just took care of business" is not correct; teams that win the first two games are highly likely to advance to the next round. The onus is on the road team to get a split. Of course, the Mavericks will not and should not give up, but they must clean up their performance in the paint at both ends of the court: they need to get "two feet in the paint" more often on offense, and they need to provide much more resistance to the Warriors' paint touches. Game three is their last, best opportunity to make a stand: teams that fall behind 3-0 in the NBA playoffs have lost the series 100% of the time.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM
Celtics Roll to Convincing Win in Miami, Tie Eastern Conference Finals at 1-1
The Boston Celtics at full strength are much better than the Boston Celtics sans two starters. That should be obvious, but much of the commentary after Miami beat Boston in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals ignored or minimized that simple truth. At one point, it seemed unlikely that Al Horford and Marcus Smart would both return for game two, but they did, and the Celtics rolled to a 127-102 win. Smart scored 24 points while also leading the Celtics in assists (12) and rebounds (nine). Jayson Tatum contributed a team-high 27 points plus five rebounds and five assists. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and eight rebounds, while Grant Williams scored 19 points. Horford had an impact more significant than his 10 points and three rebounds may suggest.
Jimmy Butler had another excellent game for the Heat (29 points on 11-18 field goal shooting, six rebounds, three assists), but no other Heat player scored more than 14 points, and the Heat shot just .442 from the field, including .294 from three point range.
The Heat jumped out to an 18-8 first quarter lead in the first 4:31, but less than five minutes later the Celtics were up 23-21 after Payton Pritchard hit a three pointer. The Celtics never looked back, outscoring the Heat 35-24 in the first quarter while shooting .632 from the field and holding the Heat to .375 field goal shooting.
The Celtics had a double digit lead the rest of the way, and their 70-45 halftime advantage is the largest halftime lead in a road playoff game in the franchise's storied history.
Butler keyed a brief third quarter rally to cut the margin to 84-67, but the Celtics soon pushed their lead back to 30 (103-73) early in the fourth quarter.
Jeff Van Gundy made an excellent point during the broadcast: he noted that when the Celtics committed to Marcus Smart as their point guard (after previously using Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker), the Celtics then had the ability to be much more flexible defensively because Smart can effectively switch on to bigger players, something that neither Irving nor Walker can do. Size matters in the NBA, and it is difficult to win at the highest level if you rely too heavily on smaller players. While it is true that Kyrie Irving played a major role on Cleveland's 2016 championship team, it is also true that in general is it more difficult to build a championship team featuring smaller players in prominent rules than it is to build a championship team that does not rely heavily on smaller players.
On the other hand, Zach Harper's bizarre commentary earlier in the day on Sirius XM NBA Radio asserting that Smart's return might hurt the Celtics because Smart is not a great passer or shooter not only did not age well--it made little sense when Harper said it. Anyone who followed the Celtics with understanding realizes that utilizing Smart as the primary playmaker brought balance to the Celtics' offense and enabled Tatum to focus on scoring without monopolizing the ball. We hear so much about how vital it is to have "range shooting" in order to score efficiently and prolifically--but in game two the Celtics scored 127 points on .512 field goal shooting with Smart shooting 8-22 from the field.
Anyone can have an incorrect take or make a prediction that does not come to pass, but when a commentator on the NBA's official radio network consistently says things that make no sense and have no basis in fact it is fair to ask what that person's qualifications are to have such a platform, and to wonder why that person continues to be provided such a platform despite demonstrated incompetence.
No, Payton Pritchard's "range shooting" is not more valuable than the total package of skills provided by Smart. Further, while we are focusing on things that are said that make no sense, it should be noted that Stephen Curry is not the only NBA player who has "gravity." I am not sure when "gravity" was plucked from physics to become an NBA term, but it has always been true that great NBA players attracted defensive attention that created open shots for their teammates. During the three NBA Finals contested by the Philadelphia 76ers and L.A. Lakers in the early 1980s, the Lakers played an illegal zone defense (sometimes the Lakers were called for it, sometimes they got away with it), sagging toward Julius Erving while daring his teammates to shoot. At that time, teams rarely shot three pointers, so the Lakers did not have to extend their defensive coverage the way that teams do now, but the principle was the same then as it is now: superstars attract defensive attention that creates open shot opportunities for their teammates. Even if the superstar is not a great shooter, he will still force the defense to tilt toward him to minimize his driving opportunities--that was true from Elgin Baylor to Julius Erving to Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to LeBron James to Giannis Antetokounmpo. The three point shot rule and various defensive rules changes forced tweaks in the specific defensive strategies employed over the years, but the players listed above had just as much "gravity" as anyone in pro basketball history. In this series, Tatum and Butler have the most "gravity," and anyone who is paying attention can see how their "gravity" pulls defenders toward them/away from their teammates.
Miami's game one win is a distant memory now. The Celtics enjoy homecourt advantage, and the Heat will have to take at least one game in Boston to win this series.
Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, Miami Heat
posted by David Friedman @ 1:27 AM
Warriors Rout Mavericks in Western Conference Finals Opener
The Golden State Warriors outshot and outrebounded the Dallas Mavericks while smothering Luka Doncic en route to a 112-87 win in game one of the Western Conference Finals. Stephen Curry led the Warriors in both scoring (21 points) and rebounding (12 rebounds). He did not have a great shooting game (7-16 from the field--including 3-9 from three point range--and 4-7 on free throws) but in a game in which both teams went with small lineups he dominated the boards while also contributing four assists. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins scored 19 points each. Wiggins also had the primary responsibility of guarding Doncic. Klay Thompson had a solid, if not spectacular, performance (15 points, five rebounds, four assists). Kevon Looney dominated early in the game--TNT's Stan Van Gundy deemed him "the first quarter MVP"--and Looney finished with 10 points on 5-5 field goal shooting plus five rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots. Although no Warrior had an outstanding game, collectively the Warriors performed very well, shooting .561 from the field and outrebounding the Mavericks 51-35.
Doncic led the Mavericks with 20 points and seven rebounds, but he shot just 6-18 from the field and he committed seven turnovers. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 17 points off of the bench, but Jalen Brunson only had 14 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, and Reggie Bullock was the only other Dallas player who scored in double figures (14 points, 4-12 field goal shooting). The Mavericks rely heavily on three point shooting, but they shot just 11-48 (.229) from beyond the arc while looking nothing like the team that dominated the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in game seven at Phoenix last Sunday.
As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter told the story. The Warriors outscored the Mavericks 28-18 in the first quarter, shooting .632 from the field while holding the Mavericks to .269 field goal shooting. The Mavericks attempted a stunning 19 three point field goals in the first 12 minutes, while making just three. The Warriors shot 10-11 from two point range, and they outrebounded the Mavericks 16-9. Those early trends--poor three point shooting by the Mavericks, excellent two point shooting by the Warriors, rebounding dominance by the Warriors--continued throughout the game.
The Warriors led 54-45 at halftime, and then they blew the game open with a 10-2 run to start the third quarter. The Mavericks never mounted a serious threat the rest of the way.
The Mavericks lost the first two games in Phoenix before taking four of the next five contests to knock out the Suns, so it is obviously too soon to count out the Mavericks--but the Mavericks must perform a lot better at both ends of the court. They will have to play harder and smarter on defense, starting with providing much more resistance in the paint; the Warriors not only outscored the Mavericks 44-32 in the paint but the Warriors shot 22-32 (.688) on their field goal attempts in the paint.
Labels: Andrew Wiggins, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 1:12 AM
Heat Overcome Slow Start, Beat Celtics as Butler Scores 41 Points
There are some players who have been deemed "Bubble All-Stars" because they played so much better in the NBA's Orlando "bubble" after COVID-19 struck in 2020 than they did before or after, but anyone who would dare put Jimmy Butler in that category is committing basketball heresy. Butler led the Miami Heat in scoring (41 points), rebounding (nine rebounds), assists (five), and steals (four) as the Heat came from 13 points behind to beat the Boston Celtics 118-107 in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals. Butler shot 12-19 from the field and 17-18 from the free throw line. He also had three blocked shots, including a spectacular rejection of a Jayson Tatum corner three pointer. Butler's 41-9-5-4-3 stat line is obviously very good, but it is a bit surprising to realize that since the NBA began tracking steals and blocked shots in 1973-74 only five other players have matched all of those numbers in the same game, and no one had previously accomplished this in the playoffs.
Tyler Herro finished second in scoring (18 points) and rebounding (eight rebounds) for the Heat in one of his better performances of the 2022 playoffs. Gabe Vincent scored 17 points while starting in place of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry. The Heat played with great collective energy and effort, but make no mistake that Butler led the way at both ends of the court.
Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 29 points while also contributing eight rebounds and six assists, but he had seven turnovers, and he scored just eight second half points on 1-7 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and a game-high 10 rebounds. Robert Williams III and Payton Pritchard scored 18 points each. Boston played without two starters: Al Horford missed the game because he is in health and safety protocols for COVID-19, while 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is nursing a foot injury that he reportedly suffered during the Celtics' game seven victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. Horford and Smart represent at least 60 minutes of playing time that had to be distributed to other players, which has a ripple effect throughout the roster, not to mention that both players have skill sets that their replacements simply cannot match. "Next man up" sounds great, but the reality is that the hierarchy within each team exists for good reasons: if bench players were good enough to start then they would be starting, and if players who rarely play except for blowouts were good enough to be in the regular rotation then they would be in the regular rotation. Injuries are part of the game, but it is unfortunate that injuries to key players have been a factor in several series this year, and it is particularly unfortunate for injuries to be a factor in a series that will decide which Eastern Conference team plays in the NBA Finals. That is not meant to take anything away from the Heat, who had a very good game plan that they executed at a high level.
In the first half, it may have looked like the Celtics did not miss Horford and Smart very much, but that is fool's gold; during a 48 minute game it is difficult to overcome the absence of two of the team's top players. The Celtics led by as much as 13 points in the first half, and they were up 62-54 at halftime. Tatum scored 21 first half points, the most that he has ever scored in the first half of a playoff game. However, any notion that the Celtics could survive--let alone thrive--shorthanded vanished in a flurry of turnovers and missed shots as the Celtics shot just 2-15 from the field and committed eight turnovers in a nightmarish third quarter. Tatum scored five points, shot 0-2 from the field, and committed six turnovers. Butler scored more points (17) than the entire Celtics team, and when the dust settled the Heat won that stanza 39-14 to build a 93-76 lead that was never seriously threatened the rest of the way.
The Celtics won the other three quarters, but the NBA does not use the old CBA scoring system in which teams received standing points for each quarter won. Horford will almost certainly miss game two, and Smart's status for game two has not yet been released, so the Celtics will need to find some answers that do not include those two key players. One answer is to cut down on the careless turnovers; the Heat are a great defensive team, but the Celtics also committed unforced errors (to borrow a tennis term). Another answer is to commit fewer fouls, and thus force the Heat to score from the field as opposed to the free throw line. During this game, we saw extended periods when the Celtics looked at least as good--if not better than--the Heat, so I would not say that hope is lost, but game two is a must win, because comebacks from 2-0 deficits are rare (even though the Mavericks just accomplished this versus the Phoenix Suns, a team led by Chris Paul, the "king" of allowing 2-0 comebacks).
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro
posted by David Friedman @ 1:28 AM
Dallas Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Finals
#4 Dallas (52-30) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Dallas, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Mavericks forget how to play defense and let the Warriors get comfortable behind the three point arc. The Warriors rank first in the 2022 playoffs in assists per game, third in three pointers made per game, and fourth in three point field goal percentage. Move the ball around and then shoot open three pointers is their main offensive strategy, supplemented by backcuts to the hoop if the opposing team overcommits to denying three point shots.
Stephen Curry is leading the Warriors in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) but he has posted a playoff career-low .359 three point field goal percentage. Klay Thompson's 2022 playoff numbers are right around his career norms, but he seems to have lost a step defensively after coming back from two serious leg injuries. First-time All-Star Andrew Wiggins is averaging 14.5 ppg in the playoffs after scoring 17.2 ppg during the regular season, so the Warriors' third option in the playoffs has been Jordan Poole (18.5 ppg). During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has had two 30 point games, and two games during which he scored eight points or less. He shot .600 or better from the field in five playoff games, and he shot .333 or worse in five playoff games. Feast or famine is an understatement regarding his play; he could be the first option one game, and the eighth option the next game.
Draymond Green is a fascinating player. He is praised for his basketball IQ, yet he exercises such little control over his emotions that he has a history of being ejected or suspended from games, including crucial playoff games. The Warriors rely on his defense and passing, but they are sometimes hindered by his reluctance to shoot. It is indisputable that some of the intangibles that he provides are valuable for a winning team, yet he would probably be close to worthless on a bad team: a team that has no defensive identity and that has players who are unwilling or unable to cut to the hoop at the right time would not benefit from Green's defense, screening, and passing; if he were a team's best player, that team would most likely be in the Draft Lottery--and yet, even though he is a limited player in some respects, the Warriors are clearly not as good when he is out of the lineup due to injury, foul trouble, or suspension.
As Green heads down the backstretch of his career, he has become more vocal in both traditional media and social media; he knows that his playing career will probably last 15 years at the most, but that if he plays his cards right he can collect checks as a media member for 30 years or more. The things he says are often not particularly smart, but he is smart in terms of knowing how to position himself for the next phase in his life. Other players might be criticized for dabbling in so many different things while playing for a team with championship aspirations, but most media members already treat Green as if he were one of their own.
Dallas will win because…the
Mavericks are a vastly improved defensive team that can pose matchup challenges for the Warriors, because the Mavericks have more depth than the Warriors--and because Luka Doncic has arguably been the best player in the 2022 playoffs.
First year Dallas Coach Jason Kidd--who was the point guard for Dallas' 2011 championship team--has done a very impressive job transforming the Mavericks from an indifferent defensive team to a strong defensive team. An important part of that process was getting Doncic to buy into the notion that he must at least give effort on defense. Opposing teams used to "hunt" Doncic by trying to get him switched onto the primary ballhandler, but that is happening less frequently now. Kidd demonstrated a genius level basketball IQ as a player, and he has done well in his previous coaching jobs, though media members seem to be reluctant to give him credit.
There is a simple way to gauge Kidd's immediate impact: after the Mavericks won the 2011 title, they did not advance past the first round of the playoffs until this year. Rick Carlisle is widely praised as a great coach, but under his reign the Mavericks got bounced in the first round (or failed to make the playoffs at all) for over a decade.
Four Warriors are scoring in double figures in the playoffs, but six Mavericks are scoring in double figures in the playoffs. Doncic leads the way, of course, but Jalen Brunson (22.9 ppg), Spencer Dinwiddie (13.2 ppg), Dorian Finney-Smith (11.6 ppg), Reggie Bullock (10.2 ppg), and Max Kleber (10.1 ppg) are playing well enough that opposing teams cannot just focus on Doncic.
Of course, improved defense and greater depth would be of limited value without a superstar who creates matchup problems every game. Doncic ranks second in playoff scoring this season (31.5 ppg, just .2 ppg behind Giannis Antetokounmpo). Doncic also ranks sixth in playoff assists (6.6 apg), and eighth in playoff rebounding (10.1 rpg). Doncic's combination of elite level scoring and clutch shotmaking with high level rebounding and playmaking is reminiscent of a young LeBron James. Essentially, Doncic is LeBron James circa 2007, but with less jumping ability and fewer national TV ads. A great player's presence provides a sense of security for his teammates, and sows doubts in opponents. The Mavericks know that they have a chance in every game because Doncic is going to play at a high level--and their opponents know that Doncic can erupt for 30, 40, or even 50 points while also keeping his teammates involved.
The Mavericks do not have a second All-Star, but they have a roster full of very good players who can do multiple things well. That is another similarity between Luka Doncic's Mavericks and young LeBron James' Cavaliers; people who don't understand basketball often said that James lacked a good supporting cast, failing to recognize that there are players who are very good even if they are not "name brand" players, and also failing to realize that sometimes how a particular group meshes at both ends of the court matters more than the raw talent that a roster has. I understood the Cavaliers' potential early on, and I correctly picked them to go to the 2007 NBA Finals at a time when many "experts" did not think that the Cavaliers could beat the Detroit Pistons in a playoff series, but I must confess that when the 2022 playoffs began I was a bit skeptical of Doncic's supporting cast. I am not skeptical now.
Other things to consider: Some commentators act like the Golden State Warriors are the defending champions while the Dallas Mavericks are scruffy outsiders who crashed the playoff party. The back to back champion Warriors were led by Kevin Durant, and
featured a fully healthy Klay Thompson. What the Warriors accomplished
in 2017-18 has nothing to do with this series, because--until proven
otherwise on the court--the best player in this series is Luka Doncic,
who just destroyed the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in game seven in Phoenix.
One win separated Golden State and Dallas over an 82 game regular season, and the Mavericks won the head to head series, 3-1. Head to head regular season numbers can be skewed by injuries, load management, one team playing a back to back set, and so forth, but the larger point is that there is no objective reason to believe that the Warriors are in a different class right now than the Mavericks.
The Warriors are perceived to be this unstoppable offensive juggernaut, but in the 2022 playoffs the Mavericks rank first in three pointers made per game and third in three point field goal percentage. The Mavericks will not be afraid to get into a three point shooting contest with the Warriors--and the Mavericks also have a superstar who can score in the paint off of drives or postups.
In the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors have beaten the Denver Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and the Memphis Grizzlies, who did not have Ja Morant for the final three games of that six game series. The Warriors have not been seriously challenged yet, and they have not looked consistently great even against limited opposition--but now the Warriors will be facing a very good team at full strength.
In contrast, the Mavericks eliminated a good Utah team that was at full strength, and then the Mavericks knocked out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns, the reigning Western Conference champions. The current Mavericks are playoff tested. The Durant-led Warriors were playoff tested, but the 2022 Warriors are not that team.
Dallas will win in six games.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 10:56 PM
Boston Versus Miami Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#2 Boston (51-31) vs. #1 Miami (53-29)
Season series: Boston, 2-1
Miami can win if…the Heat can contain Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without unleashing the Celtics' three point shooters. When the Celtics faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, the Bucks elected to protect the paint and dare the Celtics to beat them from beyond the arc, which resulted in the Celtics setting a game seven record with 22 three pointers, including seven by Grant Williams. In contrast, despite having to contend with Joel Embiid in the paint for four games in a six game series, the Heat held the Philadelphia 76ers to .337 three point field goal shooting in the second round.
Jimmy Butler has been one of the top performers in the 2022 playoffs. He is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (28.7 ppg), assists (5.4 apg), and steals (2.1 spg). He ranks second on the team in playoff rebounding (7.6 rpg), trailing Bam Adebayo by just .1 rpg. Adebayo is second on the team in playoff scoring (14.6 ppg) and steals (1.2 spg) while ranking first among the team's main rotation players in field goal percentage (.594). Tyler Herro has struggled at times during the postseason, but he is contributing 13.8 ppg (down from 20.7 ppg in the regular season). Injuries have forced All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry to miss six of the Heat's 11 playoff games. It seems unlikely that he will be healthy enough to have a major positive impact during this series.
Boston will win because…as much as this may sound like a cliche, the Celtics are peaking at the right time. They started the season slowly, but in the second half of the season they emerged as a championship contender. Other teams feared facing the Brooklyn Nets, but the Celtics not only embraced the possibility of that matchup but they swept the Nets. The Celtics then won a grueling seven game series against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.
Jayson Tatum has all the necessary tools to be an MVP: size, scoring ability from all areas of the court, rebounding, defense, ballhandling, passing. He has not won an MVP because (1) his statistics are good but not overwhelming, and (2) he does not have a signature playoff moment, let alone a championship. Defeating Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in back to back series greatly enhances Tatum's playoff resume. An NBA title would complete that resume.
Other things to consider: The Heat are an outstanding defensive team, but they are mediocre offensively and they can be bothered by size. The Heat beat the Celtics 4-2 in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals held in the Orlando bubble, but the 2022 Celtics have more size (most notably Al Horford) and depth than the 2020 Celtics.
The Celtics have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times
in the past six years, but that accomplishment has flown under the
radar because this version of the Celtics has yet to make it to the NBA
Finals, let alone win a championship. The NBA has a level of built-in
parity such that it is possible for a team to make a fluky one to the
Conference Finals without being an elite team that sustains that level
of success; recent examples include James Harden's Houston Rockets, and
Trae Young's Atlanta Hawks (the Hawks may prove me wrong, but I doubt
it).
A star player or star duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals will likely be remembered decades later, particularly if that team wins at least one championship during that run. In my time
following the NBA, such teams include Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers (seven
Conference Finals appearances, one NBA championship--including two CF
appearances and one NBA championship playing alongside Moses Malone), Larry Bird's
Boston Celtics (eight CF appearances, three NBA championships), the
Magic-Kareem L.A. Lakers (10 CF appearances, five NBA championships--including one
CF appearance after Kareem retired), Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons (five CF
appearances, two NBA championships), the Jordan-Pippen Chicago Bulls (eight CF
appearances, six NBA championships), the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (five CF appearances,
three NBA championships; Kobe then made three CF appearances and won two NBA championships
without Shaq), the ensemble Pistons (six CF appearances, one NBA championship), the James-Wade Heat (four CF appearances, two NBA championships), the James
Cavaliers (four CF appearances, one NBA championship; James also made two CF appearances in his first tour of duty with the Cavaliers), and the ensemble Warriors (six CF appearances, three NBA championships--including three CF appearances and two NBA championships with Kevin Durant leading the team).
If the Celtics or Heat win an NBA championship (either this year, or in the next few years with the same stars), that will change their place in history; it is the difference between being teams like the 1980s Bucks or 1990s Cavaliers that were very good but never got over the hump, and being a team that is always remembered not only for winning a title but for having a stretch of sustained excellence. Erving's 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83, but if they had not won the 1983 NBA championship they would not be remembered the way that they are remembered now. Whether or not that is the way things should be, that is the way things are, so there is a lot of legacy at stake for both teams. If nothing changes, the 2020s Celtics and 2020s Heat will be lightly remembered as really good teams that did not quite have "it." One championship shifts the narrative.
Before the playoffs began, I picked Milwaukee to win the NBA championship, and I still think that the Bucks would have won the title if not for the Khris Middleton injury, so it is logical for me to now pick the team that beat the Bucks. That being said, I expect this series to be closely contested, and played at a high level. Erik Spoelstra has already established himself as a Hall of Fame caliber coach, while Boston's Ime Udoka has been very impressive in his first season as an NBA head coach.
Boston will win in six games.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro
posted by David Friedman @ 7:46 PM
Doncic Eclipses Suns as Mavericks Reach the Western Conference Finals for the First Time Since 2011
Stunning. Unprecedented. Humiliating.
I am disinclined to use hyberbole, but I am at a loss to describe what the Dallas Mavericks did to the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in Phoenix in a 123-90 game seven rout. By the time Chris Paul--supposedly the best leader in the NBA--made his first field goal his Suns trailed by 40; the Suns were so far behind they couldn't see the Mavericks with a telescope, a time machine, or a fortune teller.
I picked the Suns to win this series not because I have great faith in Paul, but because I thought that he had so much talent, depth, and versatility surrounding him that his predictable drop off in play would not prove fatal in this round. I was wrong about that.
Early in the second half, the score was 30-29--not the game score, but the Luka Doncic versus Phoenix score. That is Kobe Bryant-level domination; Bryant once outscored the Dallas Mavericks 62-61 for three quarters, but even Bryant did not do that in a playoff game, though it should be remembered that he did it against a Dallas team that reached the NBA Finals that season.
Doncic finished with 35 points on 12-19 field goal shooting. He played just 30 minutes and he sat out the entire fourth quarter, or else he could have scored 50 points. Doncic also led Dallas with 10 rebounds and four assists. Spencer Dinwiddie poured in 30 points off of the bench on 11-15 field goal shooting. Doncic and Dinwiddie are the first teammates to each score at least 30 points in a game seven since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant did it a generation ago. Joel Embiid and James Harden are dreaming that someday they will play as well together in a game seven as Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie just did. Jalen Brunson added 24 points on 11-19 field goal shooting.
The Suns' statistics look like typographical errors. Cameron Johnson led them in scoring with 12 points. Devin Booker (11), Chris Paul (10), and Deandre Ayton (five) scored fewer combined points in 85 minutes than Doncic did. After the game, Suns Coach Monty Williams stated that Ayton's minutes were limited to 17 for "internal reasons," which is an interesting thing to say publicly after a game in which the minutes of many players--including Ayton--could have been limited due to poor performance. It sounds like something may be amiss in the Suns' locker room, which is a stunning development considering that the team's point guard is the best leader in the NBA.
Paul shot 4-8 from the field, Booker shot 3-14 from the field, and Ayton shot 2-5 from the field. That is 9-27 combined, which looks like a James Harden "concert tour" date, not the field goal percentages of an MVP candidate, the "Point God," and a player seeking a max contract. Those field goal made numbers and percentages sound like the punchline of a bad joke: what happened when an MVP candidate, a "Point God" and a player seeking a max contract showed up to play game seven at home? 4, 3, 2, and poof, they disappeared!
If anyone wondered who the best player in this series is, Doncic began loudly answering that question right after the opening tip, hitting a fadeaway jumper followed by two three pointers. Doncic led the Suns 8-3 and it was all downhill from there for the Suns. The Mavericks outscored the Suns 27-17 in the first quarter, but the second quarter was worse for the Suns: they were outscored 30-10. Paul played all 12 minutes in the second quarter, absorbing a -20 plus/minus number while "leading" the way with one point. There is a joke about the "Club Trillion" bench players who have a box score number of 1 minute played followed by a bunch of zeroes, as if they were trillionaires; Paul came perilously close to posting a second quarter boxscore number of 12 trillion, as his only non-zero numbers other than minutes were two missed field goals, 1-2 from the free throw line, and one foul. He had no rebounds, no assists, no steals, no blocked shots, and no turnovers.
Am I belaboring the point? Am I making too much of one game? If you think so, then consider how much grief Kobe Bryant was given about his supposedly bad performance in the 2004 NBA Finals, when his injury-riddled Lakers lost 4-1 to the Detroit Pistons. Now, imagine that Bryant--whether as a 17 year old, a 27 year old, or a 37 year old--went into the playoffs leading a 64 win team and then lost by 33 points at home while the other team's star outscored his entire team for more than a half, and while Bryant put up a second quarter boxscore consisting of one point, no rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots.
What do you suppose might have been said about Bryant after such a game?
I say that players should be evaluated by the same standards. A player's legacy is not defined by one game, but by his overall resume. When I look at Bryant, I see a 5-2 Finals record, I see his team generally winning as the favorite and generally being competitive as the underdog. I see him putting up tremendous individual numbers on a consistent basis. For those reasons (and more), I put him in my pro basketball Pantheon.
When I look at Chris Paul, I see no championships despite playing for several excellent teams. I see his team losing more than once as the favorite. I see that no player in NBA history has blown more 2-0 playoff leads than Chris Paul, whose teams have squandered such an advantage five times: 2008 versus the Spurs, 2013 versus the Grizzlies, 2016 versus the Trail Blazers, 2021 versus the Bucks, and now 2022 versus the Mavericks. Paul's Clippers also blew a 3-1 lead versus the Houston Rockets in 2015; the Clippers split the first two games when Paul was out with an injury, but then after his return in game three they eventually lost three straight games. Paul is now 3-6 in game seven showdowns.
In light of that evidence, I try to understand why "stat gurus" and media members pump up Paul to be more than he is.
The harsh reality is that there is nowhere to hide in the playoffs. Players can inflate and manipulate their numbers to some extent in the regular season, and "stat gurus" team up with media members to craft agenda-based narratives advocating that those players receive various awards--but then the playoffs arrive, and every year we see Harden go on his "concert tour" and Paul cough up so many playoff leads his voice should sound like General Grievous in "Star Wars."
I've been saying this for well over a decade, but maybe people will pay attention now (I doubt it, but I'll keep trying anyway): Paul is an undersized player who consistently wears down and/or gets injured in the playoffs. He is a great player who has a lot of heart, but undersized players simply cannot be as valuable as players who are 6-6 and bigger who have comparable skills (let alone bigger players who also have superior skills). There is one player 6-3 or under in my pro basketball Pantheon: Jerry West, who would give the business to any other similarly-sized player in pro basketball history. Isiah Thomas did not quite reach Pantheon-level, but he led Detroit to back to back titles without having a teammate who made the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and he had a winning career record head to head against Bird, Magic, and Jordan. People who compare Paul favorably with Thomas have absolutely no idea how great Thomas was, and how durable he was until the very end of his career.
Before the beatdown in the Valley of the Sun, Charles Barkley said that it is not fair to expect 37 year old Paul to be dominant, and that it is time for Booker and Ayton to step up. I agree with the second part of what Barkley said, but regarding the first part I don't understand how Paul can be touted as an MVP candidate for a good part of this season but then be given an age-based excuse for disappearing in the last five games of this series; that reminds me of how every tournament that Roger Federer won in his 30s supposedly proved that he was the greatest tennis player of all-time, while his losses were excused away based on his age. I agree that an over the hill player's performances should not impact his legacy, but you can't deem a player great one week and then give him an age-based excuse the next week, and then deem him great the week after that: there is no such thing as being over the hill, then not over the hill, then over the hill again. Federer in his 30s was not declining as much as he was just not as good as Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic (which was also true before Federer hit his 30s, particularly regarding Nadal).
As for Paul, his teams gagged up leads in playoff series when he was young, they did it when he was in his prime, and they have done it the past two years. This pattern has nothing to do with age; this pattern has to do with size, and how size impacts both durability and matchups. Paul can be worn down physically because he is small, he can be abused by bigger players when he plays defense, and bigger players can smother him when he plays offense.
Sunday's meltdown is yet another example of why people need to stop reciting the fairy tale about how Houston was "one healthy Chris Paul hamstring" away from winning the championship in 2018.
Anyone who does not understand now that Paul always has worn down in
the playoffs and always will wear down in the playoffs will never
understand it. If Paul had stayed healthy, the Rockets would have either lost that series anyway, or they would have lost in the Finals, even if they took a 2-0 lead like Paul's Suns did last year.
Why do I blast Chris Paul and James Harden but praise Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose Milwaukee Bucks lost by almost the same margin in game seven as Paul's Suns did? Let's count the reasons, first focusing on Paul and Antetokounmpo:
1) The Bucks lost game seven on the road after playing the entire series without their second best player, Khris Middleton; the Suns lost at home despite being at full strength.
2) The Bucks did not get blown out from the start, but rather were competitive for most of the game until the Celtics' superior depth and three point shooting proved to be too much; the Suns trailed 57-27 at halftime, by which point Doncic had outscored Paul 27-1. With Paul leading the way, the Suns' starters posted these first half scoring totals: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. I am not making that up. As I often say about Paul, if he is the best leader then I would hate to see what would happen with the worst leader; to me, leadership in a team sport is defined by team success, so the best leaders in the NBA in the post-Michael Jordan era are Tim Duncan (five championships) and Kobe Bryant (five championships). Steve Nash is a really nice guy, and Chris Paul is a really feisty guy, but the two players who media members most often call great leaders played a combined 35 seasons and produced one losing NBA Finals appearance (the 2-0 lead blown by Paul's Suns last year). Sorry, but that is not great leadership: that is two undersized guards who accomplished some wonderful things but were not able to beat teams led by bigger and better players.
3) Paul was a no show from start until garbage time, while Antetokounmpo had 25 points, 20 rebounds, and nine assists, a strong effort that was not enough to make up for Middleton's absence.
Regarding Harden, he fled Oklahoma City because he did not want to be the third option, he feuded with every star player with whom he has played, he whined his way out of Houston after quitting on the team, he whined his way out of Brooklyn after quitting on the team, and he has perhaps the worse elimination game track record of any player who has been so highly decorated and lavishly lauded.
Luka Doncic right now has still not reached his peak, but as a versatile 6-6, 240 pound multi-position threat he is already better than Chris Paul ever was or ever could be. That is not a knock on Paul so much as it is a statement of basketball reality: the great 6-6 player is better than the great 6-0 player every time, and even more so in game seven. The bigger concern for Suns' fans is to figure out if Booker's disappearing act in this game is just an aberration, or a sign that Doncic is just the superior player. Booker is big enough and talented enough to be a legit MVP candidate. Paul's disappearance does not surprise me, but Booker's disappearance is more troubling. Ayton may not have Booker's upside, but he has made it clear that he wants a max deal; his game seven performance and the "internal reasons" concerning his limited minutes should also concern Suns' fans.
Labels: Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Phoenix Suns, Spencer Dinwiddie
posted by David Friedman @ 2:46 AM
Celtics Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals After Burying Bucks Under Deluge of Three Pointers
The Boston Celtics set a game seven record with 22 three pointers, and their long range bombing blew open a close game in the second half as the Celtics routed the Milwaukee Bucks 109-81 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee's general strategy is to pack the paint while conceding three point shots, and their specific game seven strategy was to force Grant Williams to beat them from beyond the arc. Williams responded with a playoff career-high 27 points while shooting 10-22 from the field, including 7-18 from three point range. Williams shot just 2-14 from three point range in the previous four games in this series, so you cannot fault the Bucks' strategy but you also have to give Williams credit for stepping up in the Celtics' biggest game of the season (at least up to this point). Jayson Tatum battered the Bucks with 46 points in game six but the Bucks limited him to 23 points on 7-14 field goal shooting in game seven. Tatum had eight rebounds, four assists, and seven turnovers. Jaylen Brown added 19 points and eight rebounds. Brown may not be as flashy or explosive as Tatum, but he is a consistent two-way player and his production is critical to Boston's success. Payton Pritchard scored 14 points in 17 minutes off of the bench.
It must be emphasized that the effort that the Bucks expended to contain Tatum created open shots for
his teammates; for some odd reason, this effect is only called "gravity" when it is attributed to Stephen Curry, but a big player like Tatum who
scores, rebounds, passes, and defends at a high level has a greater impact than a small player whose main weapon is long range shooting. Tatum is
the type of player who can lead a team to a championship, as opposed to just being the most highly touted member of an ensemble cast that wins a
championship. Tatum has not yet won a championship, but he has repeatedly proven that he can be an impact performer in the playoffs against elite competition; just this year alone, he outplayed Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets in the first round before leading his team to a second round series win against defending champion Milwaukee and two-time regular season MVP/one-time Finals MVP Giannis Antetokoumpo.
Antetokoumpo almost had a triple double in the first half, and he finished with 25 points, 20 rebounds, and nine assists. His final numbers were not efficient (10-26 field goal shooting, five turnovers), but his effort is unquestioned; he played hard at both ends of the court, and his scoring, passing, screening, and ability to draw double teams accounted for most of the Bucks' offense. Antetokounmpo became the first player in NBA playoff history to have at least 200 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 50 assists in one series. He is just the third player in playoff history to have at least three 40 point playoff games versus the Celtics, joining Jerry West and LeBron James.
What has stuck out to me throughout Antetokounmpo's career is that he has a pure basketball spirit: he enjoys competition while being gracious as both a winner and a loser, he plays hard all of the time at both ends of the court, he is completely devoid of drama or pettiness, and when he plays there is never even a hint that he is thinking about his numbers to the detriment of what the team needs for him to do. During Milwaukee's strong first quarter stretch, Jeff Van Gundy noted that Antetokounmpo was doing everything possible to empower his teammates: setting screens, drawing double teams, making great passes. Van Gundy added that Antetokounmpo did many valuable things that do not show up in the boxscore. That is remarkable when you consider how consistently great his boxscore numbers are. After the game, Antetokounmpo said that he did not consider the first seven seasons of his career as losing seasons just because the team did not win a championship, and he does not consider this season to be a losing season either. He said that each year that you don't win a title is a learning experience that can provide knowledge and fuel for future seasons.
If you think that Antetokounmpo's .385 field goal shooting in this game is equivalent to .385 field goal shooting by a player who does not rebound, who holds on to the basketball to only make assist passes, and who thinks defense is the thing surrounding his yard then you just don't understand basketball. Yes, it would be optimal for Antetokounmpo to shoot better from the field. No, this game does not damage his legacy because (1) he is already a basketball "made man" with a championship/Finals MVP and (2) he played the right way in this game. Greatness is about not only outcome, but also attitude, preparation, and work ethic.
The Bucks won the rebounding battle 56-48, and they outscored the Celtics in the paint 48-26, but the Bucks could not overcome the three pointers made differential (22-4), which set a game seven record. The Bucks' 4-33 three point shooting (.121) is the worst three point percentage ever for a team that attempted at least 30 three pointers in a playoff game. The three point shooting is just one example of how Antetokounmpo's supporting cast did not provide enough help at either end of the court; of course, the major factor here is the knee injury suffered by Khris Middleton during the first round that sidelined Middleton for the rest of the 2022 postseason. Jrue Holiday scored 21 points in game seven, but he shot just 9-21 from the field. Brook Lopez was solid (15 points, 10 rebounds), but the only other Buck to score in double figures was Bobby Portis (10 points).
The Bucks led by as much as 10 points during the first quarter, and they were still ahead 26-20 at the end of the stanza, but building that tenuous lead required a performance from Antetokounmpo that was not sustainable for four quarters: 10 points, eight rebounds, six assists, no turnovers, 3-6 field goal shooting. Those numbers project to 40 points, 32 rebounds, and 24 assists for a whole game! The only player in NBA history who might have been able to post 40-32-24 was Wilt Chamberlain. Anteotkounmpo finished the first half with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists, becoming the first player to post such a first half stat line in a playoff game in the past 25 years--but the Bucks already trailed 48-43. The Celtics outscored the Bucks 13-6 in the first 2:24 of the third quarter, and the Celtics led by at least 10 points the rest of the way.
After the game, Boston Coach Ime Udoka made a telling remark: "This is what we played for, why we played the season out, to have home court advantage in a game seven. If you believe in the basketball gods, those things matter." I criticized the Bucks at the time when they rested their starters for the final game of the season with playoff seeding on the line, and even as I picked them to win game seven I noted that karma is at work with the Bucks forced to play on the road in the decisive game.
Remember when some commentators said that the Celtics should break up the Tatum-Brown duo? The Celtics are now making their fourth Eastern Conference Finals appearance in the past six seasons. Tatum was not on the first of those Eastern Conference Finalists (and Brown was not a star on that 2017 squad) but they have grown into stardom together. Antetokounmpo ignored the screaming that he needed to leave Milwaukee to win a title, and he was rewarded with a championship as he and Middleton evolved into a great duo (which became a trio after Holiday signed with the Bucks last season). It was a joy to watch Antetokounmpo stay the course in Milwaukee and win a title; if Tatum accomplishes the same in Boston that will also be great for the NBA--much better for the league than seeing teams benefit from tanking, or teams throwing talent together in an attempt to win instantly without regard to character and skill set.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Grant Williams, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks
posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM
