20 Second Timeout

Pascal Siakam Scores Playoff Career-High 34 Points as Raptors Avoid Sweep, Send Series Back to Philadelphia For Game Five

Put away the brooms, 76ers fans, and buckle your seatbelts for the James Harden playoff experience. Toronto beat Philadelphia 110-102 to avoid a sweep. Neither team shot well, but Toronto outrebounded Philadelphia 46-41 while also committing four fewer turnovers, and making seven more free throws; winning the possession game proved to be the decisive factor for Toronto. Pascal Siakam led the way with a playoff career-high 34 points on 10-19 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds and dishing for five assists. Gary Trent Jr. scored 24 points despite shooting just 8-20 from the field. Thaddeus Young provided a lift off of the bench with 13 points on 6-9 field goal shooting. Scottie Barnes, who received the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year award before tipoff, was clearly hindered by the ankle injury that he suffered in game one (and that forced him to miss games two and three), but his game-high 11 rebounds helped Toronto to win the possession game. Barnes scored six points on 1-6 field goal shooting.

With Joel Embiid limited by a torn ligament in his right thumb and Tyrese Maxey's numbers regressing to the mean (11 points, 4-12 field goal shooting), James Harden was Philadelphia's leading scorer for the first time in this series. It is not a coincidence that this was also Philadelphia's first loss in this series, because the 76ers are a much better team with Harden as the fourth option than as the first option. Harden continued what Jalen Rose recently called his "concert tour," penciling in May 17 on the calendar (i.e., Harden shot 5-17 from the field). Here are Harden's previous "concert tour" dates from this series: 6-17, 3-9, 7-13. That adds up to a .375 field goal percentage in four playoff games versus Toronto for the player Daryl Morey called "by far number one in NBA history" as a scorer. Harden also had a team-high nine assists, five rebounds, four turnovers, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. 

Embiid labored his way to 21 points on 7-16 field goal shooting. He had eight rebounds and three assists. For the first time in this series, Embiid did not dominate the paint at either end of the court. 

The most likely outcome for game five in Philadelphia is that the 76ers win after Embiid plays a bit better than he did in game five, and after Harden's role is reduced as his teammates regain their footing on their home court. Barnes is hobbling, and the status of Toronto's All-Star guard Fred VanVleet is uncertain after he left game five with a hip injury. So, the odds are still heavily against Toronto recovering from a 3-0 deficit to beat Philadelphia in seven games, but if two star players are going to play central roles in the first such collapse in NBA playoff history then I would not be surprised to see Embiid and Harden "accomplish" this feat: Embiid has a history of never staying healthy for a full playoff run and never advancing past the second round, while Harden is perhaps the worst playoff choker among star players in pro basketball history.

Labels: James Harden, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 5:06 PM

0 comments

J.J. Redick's Disrespectful Comments About Bob Cousy Betray Redick's Ignorance

J.J. Redick had a long but not particularly impactful NBA career during which he averaged 12.8 ppg while proving to be a below average passer, ballhandler, rebounder, and defender. He played sparingly last season before retiring, and he was heading rapidly toward obscurity if he did not do something to grab attention. Redick has begun working for ESPN, and has apparently chosen "Screamin' A" Smith as his role model. Smith has demonstrated that he does not understand the difference between volume and depth, because the less sense he makes the louder he screams. Redick does not scream, but he shares Smith's penchant for blurting out nonsense and refusing to admit that there is no historical or logical basis for what he says.

Redick recently declared that Bob Cousy's Hall of Fame numbers and records mean little because Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen." Cousy is not only one of the greatest point guards of all-time, but he is a class act who is still alive and well, and it is awful that he is repeatedly subjected to having his legacy trashed not only by uninformed media members but now by a mediocre retired player who is seeking attention. 

How great was Bob Cousy, and who did he play against? Consider Cousy's 1956-57 MVP season, during which he ranked first in assists (478, 7.5 apg), sixth in free throw percentage (.821), and eighth in scoring (1319, 20.6 ppg). The next six finishers in the MVP voting (Bob Pettit, Paul Arizin, Dolph Schayes, George Yardley, Maurice Stokes, and Bill Russell) are all Hall of Famers, as are two other players who each received one MVP vote (Harry Gallatin and Jack Twyman). The league consisted of just eight teams of 11 players each, and those rosters were stacked with Hall of Famers. The worst team in the league that season, the Rochester Royals, finished 31-41 and was led by Hall of Famers Stokes and Twyman. No teams practiced "load management," and no teams tanked, which meant that Cousy could not pad his numbers against inferior competition. Also, the games were physical, the scheduling and traveling were brutal, and the arenas, training regimens, and equipment were nowhere close to what would be considered standard or acceptable now. 

As I noted in February 2022, Amin Elhassan regularly demeans Cousy for no reason:

Elhassan worked in an NBA front office a long time ago, and when he confines himself to talking about his observations of players who he has seen play he displays a basic level of competence--nothing profound, but nothing foolish. However, when Elhassan strays from that comfort zone he descends into sounding like a fan whose biases far outstrip his analytical abilities, as I mentioned in my analysis of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team when I refuted his bizarre obsession with demeaning Bob Cousy:

While we are talking about small point guards, it must be said that the people who suggest that Cousy could not play in today's game are--and there is no polite way to put this--speaking foolishly (I am trying to avoid labeling people, and instead just labeling their behavior). I think that there is more than a little reverse racism that rears its ugly head when assessing Cousy, and I also think that far too many people who speak about him have little to no knowledge of NBA history. Amin Elhassan--who does a solid job of analyzing current NBA players--has made it a running gag during his Sirius XM NBA Radio appearances to mock Cousy's career field goal percentage (.375) and suggest that Cousy is vastly overrated. Cousy's career free throw percentage is .803, so we can dismiss the notion that he was a bad shooter. By the way, the league's free throw shooting percentage during Cousy's career was .734, and in the middle to latter portion of his career it was right around .750, which is comparable to the league's free throw shooting percentage now. Put young Cousy in a shooting contest with today's NBA players and I think that the results would surprise many people. Back to Cousy's field goal percentage: Did Cousy have horrible shot selection and/or was he incapable of scoring when closely guarded? 

The NBA's average field goal percentage during Cousy's career was .391, so a .375 field goal percentage was not terrible at that time. Why were field goal percentages so low during that era? Keep in mind that during basketball's early days players were called "cagers" because the courts were surrounded by wire cages to keep the players inside and the fans outside. Yes, the cages were gone by the time Cousy played in the NBA, but that rough and wild mentality still pervaded the league. The game was much more physical than today's game. Yes, the players were smaller, but not by as much as you may think, and if a 6-4, 220 dude elbows you in the face it is going to hurt a lot and it may dissuade you from driving to the hoop (and may affect your field goal percentage not only after you have been hit but also prior to that because you are keeping your head on a swivel to avoid being hit). The early NBA arenas had worse lighting, worse playing surfaces, worse temperature control, and just worse conditions in general than NBA arenas today. Also, it is my understanding--but I cannot find the archival articles to confirm this--that during some of the NBA's earliest seasons a missed field goal attempt when a player was fouled was counted in the statistics, which would obviously have a negative effect on a player's field goal percentage, and that effect would be more pronounced for a player like Cousy who drew a lot of fouls (now, when a player is fouled while shooting the attempt only counts if the player makes the field goal attempt). Also, NBA half court sets and strategies had to evolve after the 24 second shot clock was introduced. 

During Cousy's era, players traveled by train, not private airplanes, and the scheduling was brutal. Cousy's physical attributes--6-1, 180, wiry strong, exceptional peripheral vision/ballhandling--are no worse than John Stockton's or Chris Paul's. Put Cousy in today's game, and he would have a field day playing under modern conditions with defensive players not being allowed to touch him. Put Stockton or Paul in the 1950s, and their numbers would not have been any better than Cousy's. 

Another difference between the 1950s and subsequent eras is that as time passed a greater focus developed on individual statistics and efficiency. Modern players hesitate to shoot long shots at the end of the shot clock or end of the quarter because such shots hurt their field goal percentages. Shane Battier talked about this in the highly publicized interview that he did about so-called "advanced basketball statistics" many years ago. He was dubbed the ultimate team player because he did not care about his individual numbers, but even he admitted that he declined to take shots at the end of the shot clock or end of the quarter that could only help the team but might hurt his individual field goal percentage. 

Red Auerbach is rightly considered one of the greatest coaches of all-time, if not the greatest, and he led the Celtics to nine NBA titles. If he thought that Cousy's shot selection was hurting the team you can be sure that Auerbach would have done something about it.

Comparisons between eras are fraught with peril and should be done with great care and thoroughness. The ignorant way that Elhassan (and his co-host Zach Harper, whose qualifications to be on the show remain a mystery to me) mocks Cousy is disgraceful. Based on listening to other segments of the show, I realize that Elhassan understands how to analyze basketball players that he has seen, so I wish that he would restrict his commentary/analysis to what he understands, and leave the historical comparisons to those who are better informed.

Comparing athletes from two different eras involves two main considerations: (1) How great was each athlete compared to the athletes from his own era, and (2) a skill set comparison of each athlete. The first is much easier to determine, but the second is more complex and nuanced. 

It is obvious that Cousy was much greater in his era than Kyrie Irving--to cite the modern player who Redick asserts would be viewed as a "wizard" if he were teleported to the 1960s NBA--is in this era: Cousy won one regular season MVP, made the All-NBA First Team 10 years in a row, won six championships (and was an All-NBA First or Second Team player for each of those championship teams), led the league in assists for eight straight seasons (1953-60,), ranked in the top 10 in free throw percentage for eight straight seasons (1952-59), led the league in triple doubles in five different seasons, and still ranks 12th all-time with 33 regular season triple doubles. Only nine other players have earned at least 10 All-NBA First Team selections: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Jerry West, Michael Jordan, Bob Pettit, and Elgin Baylor. Only John Stockton won more assist titles (nine) than Cousy. 

In contrast, Irving's resume is much thinner: he not only has never won a regular season MVP, but he has never received a single top five MVP vote. He has never made the All-NBA First Team, and during his 11 year career he has received one All-NBA Second Team selection and two All-NBA Third Team selections (the All-NBA Third Team has only existed since 1989, long after Cousy retired). Irving has won one NBA title, he has never ranked in the top 10 in assists, he has ranked in the top 10 in free throw percentage four times, and he has just three career triple doubles. 

Cousy was not playing against "plumbers and firemen"--he was playing against some of the best players of all-time, and he was the best guard in the NBA for at least a decade. Irving has never been close to being the best guard in the NBA in any one season, let alone being the best guard for a decade. Supposedly the level of competition is much higher now, but that argument can cut both ways: yes, the modern game is globalized while the 1950s NBA drew from a smaller talent pool, but there are also many more teams in the NBA now, and thus the talent is more spread out/diluted. As noted above, in Cousy's MVP season the worst team in the league went 31-41 (a .436 winning percentage which is slightly worse than the winning percentage of this season's New Orleans Pelicans, a playoff team). The rampant practices of tanking and "load management" also help today's players to post gaudy numbers. Every season of Irving's career he not only regularly takes time off for one reason or another, but he also has the opportunity to boost his numbers by playing against teams that are losing on purpose.

Regarding the skill set comparison, Cousy may not have been the first player to dribble behind his back and throw no-look passes, but he was the first player to do such things while being the point guard for multiple NBA championship teams. Cousy was a pioneer. The showmen who came after him patterned their games on Cousy's game; Kyrie Irving would not exist as we know him today without Cousy, Pistol Pete Maravich, Archie Clark, Isiah Thomas, Tim Hardaway, and the many other great ballhandlers who preceded him, so it is not fair or relevant to speak of teleporting Irving to the 1960s without acknowledging the debt that he owes to the great players who came before him. On the other hand, if you teleported young Cousy into today's game and permitted Cousy to travel, to carry the ball, and to dribble all over the court without perimeter defenders being permitted to touch him there is every reason to believe that Cousy would be as great now as he was in his time. 

You may think that comparing the shooting skills of two players just involves looking at shooting percentages, but such a simplistic view fails to take into account how different today's game is from the NBA game in the 1950s and 1960s: the defensive rules are different, the addition of the three point line changed both offensive and defensive strategies, and there are other differences (medical care, playing four games in five days, etc.) that impacted shooting percentages (and other statistics). Cousy's field goal percentage was above average during his career, and he was one of the league's top free throw shooters. Irving's field goal percentage is also above average relative to his era, and he is one of the league's top free throw shooters. There is no objective way to measure Cousy's range because the three point shot did not exist during his career, but throughout the past 40-plus years we have seen many players who were not nearly as accomplished as Cousy add the three point shot to their repertoire after entering the league as below average outside shooters, so there is no reason to think that Cousy would not have been at least a good three point shooter if he had played in the modern era.

Statistically, Cousy is one of the greatest playmakers of all-time, while Irving is a solid playmaker. I would not put too much stock in assist numbers alone, because those numbers are very subjective (although I trust the pre-1980s assist numbers more than I trust the post-1980s assist numbers, because in the 1980s the scorekeepers began awarding assists more generously), but I would note that Cousy was the top playmaker not just for his team but in the entire league, while Irving has generally been primarily a scorer while serving as a secondary playmaker for his teams.

Defense is even more difficult to compare than the categories listed above. Neither Cousy not Irving would be considered elite defensive players, but Cousy was the point guard for championship teams that were known for playing great defense and then for turning those defensive stops into fast break opportunities, and he played an important role at both ends of the court.

Redick's "hot take" got him the attention that he wanted, but it also let informed basketball observers know that Redick does not take basketball analysis or basketball history very seriously. According to one set of "advanced basketball statistics," based on Redick's NBA career his probability of being inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is 0.0%, which coincidentally is also the likelihood that he has the slightest idea what he is talking about.

Labels: Amin Elhassan, Bob Cousy, J.J. Redick

posted by David Friedman @ 1:36 PM

4 comments

What Have We Learned After the First Two Games of the Philadelphia-Toronto Series?

The Philadelphia 76ers routed the Toronto Raptors in each of the first two games of their playoff series, winning 131-111 in game one and then winning 112-97 in game two. I picked Toronto to beat Philadelphia in six games, but it is obvious now that the Raptors face an uphill climb just to get back in the series; some commentators say that the home team winning the first two games is "just holding serve and the series does not begin until the road team wins a game," but the reality is that a team that wins the first two games of an NBA playoff series wins the series 92.4% of the time: history shows that to have a realistic chance to win a series a team must at least split the first two games. Playoff history in general and the specific way that the matchups have played out so far in this series indicate that the Raptors are in trouble.

All of that being said, the 2019 Toronto Raptors are one of the few teams to come back from a 2-0 deficit, beating the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals en route to winning the championship; that victory looks even more impressive in retrospect, because the Bucks won the NBA title just two years later. The 2022 Raptors have the same coach (Nick Nurse) and three of the same rotation players (Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby) as the 2019 Raptors--but, of course, the absence of Kawhi Leonard in 2022 is a big difference. When healthy, Leonard is the "dynasty killer." Also, the 2022 Raptors are currently without the services of Scottie Barnes, one of the leading Rookie of the Year candidates and perhaps the second best all-around player on the team.

Why are the 76ers up 2-0, and what--if anything--can the Raptors do to get back in the series?

1) The most valuable player in the series thus far has been Joel Embiid. This is not just about the numbers, which are actually subpar by his lofty standards (25.0 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .5 bpg, .452 FG%), but about his impact at both ends of the court: on offense, he is commanding double teams that are creating wide open shots for his teammates (the 76ers are shooting .516 from the field, including .484 from three point range), and on defense he is shutting down the paint, forcing the Raptors to rely on jump shots (the Raptors are shooting .456 from the field, including .371 from three point range). During the regular season, the Raptors went 3-1 versus Philadelphia--including 2-1 when Embiid played--but in the first two games of this series the Raptors fouled too much, rotated poorly to shooters, and thus they got the worst of both worlds: Embiid put the Raptors in foul trouble while scoring from the free throw line, and Embiid's teammates scored very efficiently (see below).

In the opening moments of game two, the Raptors played very aggressively and very physically, challenging Embiid at both ends of the court and taking a quick 11-2 lead, but then Embiid began drawing fouls, the Raptors stopped making shots, and the 76ers took control. 

The Raptors must put more pressure on the 76ers' ballhandlers to make it difficult to feed Embiid, they must do everything possible to deny Embiid opportunities to catch the ball in the paint, and they must defend the paint without fouling but also without giving up so many wide open shots. These are not easy things to do, but they are things that we have seen the Raptors do this season.

Embiid's conditioning and health are better now than at any other time during his playoff career, but a team must win 16 playoff games to be crowned champion. Can Embiid stay healthy and not wear down as the playoffs progress? The version of Embiid we saw in games one and two has a combination of size, strength, and skill not seen in the NBA since prime Shaquille O'Neal, but O'Neal established his legacy by winning four championships and not just by winning two first round home games.

2) Tyrese Maxey has been the leading scorer in the series (30.5 ppg on .688 field goal shooting). He has benefited from all of the defensive attention attracted by Embiid--which is called "gravity" when Stephen Curry is involved--but he has also demonstrated the ability to create his own shot, particularly in open court situations (and even in those situations he benefits from Embiid, because Embiid's defensive impact has fueled the 76ers' fast break). 

3) Tobias Harris seemed to suffer the most after James Harden's arrival in Philadelphia, but he has averaged 23.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting in the first two games of this series. Harris scored at least 20 points in just four of his last 28 regular season games before scoring 26 and 20 versus Toronto. 

4) James Harden, rumored to be on the verge of being given a long-term contract valued at more than $200 million, has been the 76ers' fourth leading scorer in this series (18.0 ppg) while shooting .346 from the field. He is leading the team in assists (10.0 apg), steals (2.0 spg), and turnovers (3.0 tpg). Harden will never be the first option on a championship team, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that he is unlikely to ever be the second option on a championship team--but, perhaps he can be the third or fourth option on a championship team, with Embiid carrying most of the weight, one or two accurate shooters benefiting from the double teams Embiid draws, and Harden distributing the ball while reducing his shot attempts (and thus minimizing the damage caused by his perennially poor playoff shooting). I still can't picture the 76ers beating Miami, Boston, or Milwaukee (in whatever order you prefer to rank those three teams) in a seven game playoff series, but the 76ers seem to have enough to get by Toronto with Harden serving as the fourth option. How many championships would Harden have now if he had been willing to remain the third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?

5) During the regular season, Toronto ranked seventh in points allowed (107.1 ppg) and eighth in rebounding (45.3 rpg) but in this series the Raptors are allowing 121.5 ppg while being outrebounded 40.0 rpg to 35.5 rpg. Barnes grabbed 10 rebounds in game one but was not able to play in game two, and no other Raptor is averaging more than 6.5 rpg in the series. These defensive and rebounding problems are primarily being caused by Embiid's presence, and it is not clear if the Raptors have answers to these challenges, particularly if Barnes remains unavailable.

6) Five Toronto players averaged at least 15.3 ppg during the regular season, but Barnes is out of action and Gary Trent Jr.--who has been impaired by a non-COVID-19 illness--is averaging just 4.5 ppg versus the 76ers.

7) Matisse Thybulle--who started 50 games for the 76ers during the regular season--has played less than 15 mpg during this series, and he will not be available in any games played in Toronto due to his COVID-19 vaccination status. At this point, it does not appear that his absence will have a major impact on this series, but it will change/shorten Philadelphia's rotation, which could matter if foul trouble and/or injuries take place during games three and four (or game six, if game six becomes necessary).

The top two priorities for Toronto are (1) Put more pressure on Embiid without giving up so many open shots to Maxey and Harris, and (2) either get more of a scoring contribution from Trent Jr. or else collectively get more scoring from the rest of the team.

The 76ers are obviously in command right now, but if the Raptors play up to their capabilities and win both home games then the 76ers will be under tremendous pressure in game five at Philadelphia. Embiid has yet to prove that he can sustain a high level of play during an extended playoff run, Harden is one of the worst playoff chokers of all-time, and Doc Rivers has coached multiple teams that blew large leads in playoff series, so if this series reaches 2-2 then there will be a lot for the 76ers and their fans to be concerned about.

Labels: Fred VanVleet, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Philadelphia 76ers, Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 7:01 PM

4 comments

Coach Mike Haley Awarded Long-Overdue Recognition

In Farewell, Coach Mike Haley, I wrote:

Mike Haley, one of the most accomplished high school basketball coaches in Ohio history, passed away last weekend at the age of 73. To say that Coach Haley is underrated is an understatement; even the obituary published in the local Dayton newspaper--the newspaper of record in the city where he was a dominant coaching figure for two decades--shortchanged him one of his championships! To set the record straight, let it be noted that Coach Haley won four Ohio high school basketball titles: his 1976 Roth team went 22-5 en route to capturing the AA title, his 1981 Roth team went 26-1 en route to capturing the AAA title, his 1982 Roth team went 24-4 en route to capturing the AA title and his 1987 Dunbar team went 24-4 en route to capturing the AAA title. Coach Haley also led Dunbar to the 1984 AAA Championship Game before losing to Canton McKinley.

It is outrageous that a four-time state championship coach has not been inducted into the Ohio High School Basketball Coaches Association Hall of Fame or the Ohio Basketball Hall of Fame. High school coaching statistics are difficult to track down but I doubt that there are many four-time championship coaches who are not in the Ohio High School Basketball Hall of Fame and I suspect that there are many coaches in that Hall who failed to win four titles. 

Haley has finally been recognized by the Ohio Basketball Hall of Fame, as he was inducted as a member of the 2020 Hall of Fame class. The ceremony was delayed until this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Haley's page lists his career Ohio coaching record as 334-97 with four state championships (1976, 1981-82, 1987). Also, Coach Haley's 1981 and 1982 Roth championship teams were inducted as part of the Class of 2020. 

I wish that Coach Haley had lived long enough to celebrate this well-earned honor with his family and friends; I know that being a Hall of Famer mattered to Coach Haley, and that he was both disappointed and puzzled that he was not inducted a long time ago.

Labels: Dunbar, Mike Haley, Ohio University, Roosevelt, Roth

posted by David Friedman @ 9:52 PM

0 comments

Second Day of NBA Playoffs Highlighted by Jayson Tatum's Buzzer Beater

The NBA's second quadrupleheader of the weekend featured the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seeded teams in the East (Miami Heat) and the West (Phoenix Suns), but it will always be remembered for Jayson Tatum's buzzer beater to cap the epic first game of the Boston-Brooklyn series. My recaps for Saturday's four games are here.

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Miami 115, Atlanta 91

While teams like Brooklyn and Philadelphia received most of the media's attention throughout the season, the Miami Heat grinded their way to the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Atlanta Hawks, fresh off of their appearance in the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, struggled for most of this season before beating Charlotte and Cleveland in the Play-In Tournament to clinch the eighth seed.

This series would be a mismatch in Miami's favor even if Atlanta were at full strength, but injuries to Clint Capela (who will be out of action for at least another week) and John Collins--who returned for game one after missing more than a month due to finger and foot injuries--crippled the Hawks' frontcourt depth.

The Heat raced out to a 21-11 lead, but by the end of the quarter the Hawks trimmed the margin to six (23-17) despite suffering through their worst field goal shooting quarter of the season (3-17, .176). The Heat shot 9-21 (.429) from the field, and no player from either team scored more than five points. Both teams committed five turnovers. 

The Heat blew the game open in the second quarter, pushing their lead to 59-38 after Gabe Vincent's three pointer with less than a minute remaining. Miami led 59-40 at halftime. Duncan Robinson paced a balanced Heat attack with 11 points on 4-5 field goal shooting. The Heat shot 21-40 from the field (.538), including 10-19 (.556) from three point range, while the Hawks shot 11-38 from the field (.297), including 2-18 (.118) from three point range. This was the Hawks' worst shooting half of the season. Danilo Gallinari scored 14 points on 4-8 field goal shooting, but Trae Young had just eight points on 1-9 field goal shooting.  

Young could neither find his shooting stroke nor create open shots for his teammates in the third quarter, and the Heat led 86-60 heading into the fourth quarter. The teams essentially traded baskets in the fourth quarter, with the Hawks never mounting even the semblance of a serious threat.

Robinson scored a game-high 27 points and set a Heat franchise playoff single game record by making eight three pointers. He shot 9-10 from the field, including 8-9 from three point range. Jimmy Butler scored 21 points on 9-15 field goal shooting, while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and three steals. Gallinari led the Hawks with 17 points on 5-12 field goal shooting. Young finished with eight points on 1-12 field goal shooting.

The Heat are at a different level than the Hawks, whose Eastern Conference Finals run last season is looking more and more like a fluke: the Hawks are a solid team, but hardly a legitimate title contender. It is unlikely that Young will be completely shut down like this again, but it is also unlikely that the Hawks will pose much of a threat to win this series.

Boston 115, Brooklyn 114

Tatum led the Celtics with 31 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. He also had four rebounds and a team-high eight assists. Jaylen Brown, who played down the stretch with cotton swabs in both nostrils to stop bleeding, scored 23 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, and he swiped a team-high four steals. Smart added 20 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, plus seven rebounds, six assists, and two steals. Horford had 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high 15 rebounds. Irving poured in a game-high 39 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, and he filled up the rest of the boxscore with six assists, five rebounds, and four steals. Irving scored 18 fourth quarter points, nearly matching Boston's total for the final stanza. Durant contributed 24 points, but he shot just 9-24 from the field, and he had more turnovers (six) than rebounds (four) or assists (three). Irving was the only Nets' starter who had a positive plus/minus number (+6), while Durant had a -13 plus/minus number. Goran Dragic (14 points) and Nic Claxton (13 points, eight rebounds) made solid contributions off of the bench, but this game highlighted how much more overall talent and depth the Celtics have: Irving and Durant combined for 63 points on 21-44 field goal shooting--which is what one could reasonably expect from the duo, even if one might expect Irving to shoot a little worse and Durant to shoot better--and that was still not quite enough to win; that will likely be the story throughout the series: Durant and Irving will average around 60 ppg combined, and the Celtics will advance to the second round.

Milwaukee 93, Chicago 86

The Bucks opened the game with a 9-0 run in the first 1:33, and it looked like they planned to tame the Bulls the same way that the Heat silenced the Hawks, but instead the Bucks were outscored the remaining 46:27 of the game. The collapse did not happen immediately, though, and the Bucks led 34-21 at the end of the first quarter as Giannis Antetokounmpo scored nine points and grabbed eight rebounds. Antetokounmpo had 17 first half points and 11 first half rebounds, but by halftime the Bulls had pulled to within 51-43. 

The Bucks have advantages in size, top level talent, and overall depth, but it is important to remember that the Bulls have several excellent players, including DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. Matchup advantages on paper do not win games; exploitation of matchup advantages on the court wins games. 

The Bulls took a 67-64 lead on Coby White's three pointer at the 3:11 mark of the third quarter, and shortly after that they went up 69-64. The Bulls have performed horribly against good teams all season long, but with less than 15 minutes remaining in the game the Bucks seemed to have lost their way before Antetokounmpo's three point play put them up 74-71 heading into the fourth quarter. 

The fourth quarter was ugly and low scoring, and the Bulls not only led 78-77 with less than six minutes remaining but they were down by only one point, 87-86, with 1:36 remaining. Neither team made a field goal in the final 1:24, and the Bucks closed out the win by sinking their final four free throw attempts.

Antetokounmpo finished with a game-high 27 points on 10-19 field goal shooting, and he grabbed a team-high 16 rebounds. His plus/minus number of +19 was eight points better than any other Buck's plus/minus number; he came to play, but his supporting cast did not consistently follow his lead. Brook Lopez was a major factor with 18 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, five rebounds, and stout defense. Jrue Holiday was OK, but not great, with 15 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds and six assists. The Bucks need more from Khris Middleton (11 points on 4-13 field goal shooting, plus six assists and five rebounds). The Bulls were done in by poor field goal shooting: Vucevic scored 24 points but shot just 9-27 from the field, DeRozan had 18 points on 6-25 field goal shooting, and LaVine added 18 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. When a team's three best scorers shoot 21-71 (.296) from the field it is very difficult to win.

The Bucks played a very sloppy brand of basketball in the second half, tallying 14 field goals made and 14 turnovers. They shot just .345 from the field after the first quarter. They will win this series, but the larger issue is that they must raise their game to a much higher level to beat whoever they will face in the second round. One wonders how much the Bucks' decision to hunt this matchup by sitting their starters in the final regular season game impacted their mindset and preparation, but I am a firm believer that when you mess with the game the game will mess with you. The Bucks very much wanted to face the Bulls, and the Bucks would be well-advised to focus on the task at hand as opposed to possibly looking forward to playing in the second round and beyond.

Phoenix 110, New Orleans 99

The New Orleans Pelicans were the last team to qualify for the playoffs, and they are the only 2022 playoff team with a losing regular season record. For most of this game, they looked like they are on course to be the first team eliminated from the playoffs. The Suns led 28-16 by the end of the first quarter, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as the Pelicans put up in the first 24 minutes. By halftime, the Suns were up 53-34, and the main question seemed to be whether the Suns could hold the Pelicans under 65 points--but the Pelicans came to life (or perhaps the Suns fell asleep) in the third quarter, cutting the margin to as low as seven (76-69), and heading into the fourth quarter with the game very much in the balance as the Suns were only up 79-71. The fourth quarter turned into the Chris Paul show, as the Suns' point guard erupted for 19 points to make sure that the Pelicans never got closer than six points the rest of the way. The Suns led by double digits in the final 8:45 except for two brief moments when the Pelicans shaved the margin to nine points. 

Paul finished with a game-high 30 points on 12-16 field goal shooting, and he also led both teams with 10 assists. His +20 plus/minus number was nine points better than the next best player. He also had seven rebounds, three steals, one blocked shot, and just two turnovers. Devin Booker added 25 points and eight assists, but he shot just 8-19 from the field. Deandre Ayton scored 21 points on 10-15 field goal shooting while also grabbing nine rebounds and blocking four shots. 

C.J. McCollum topped the Pelicans with 25 points, but he shot just 9-25 from the field. He led the Pelicans in assists (six) and he ranked second in rebounds (eight). Brandon Ingram shot 6-17 from the field to score 18 points, and Jonas Valanciunas shot 7-21 from the field for his 18 points, though Valanciunas also did yeoman's work on the glass with a playoff career-high 25 rebounds.

The bottom line is that after a nearly flawless first half the Suns did more than enough in the second half to win the game.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 AM

12 comments

Utah, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Golden State Win on First Day of 2022 NBA Playoffs

It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80% of the time; I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007, and that percentage has held steady over the years, with the most recent number, per the NBA's 2022 Playoff Guide, being 75.6%. The reason for this is that, barring injuries or other major changes during the series, the matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be decisive the rest of the way.

Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2022 NBA playoffs.

Utah 99, Dallas 93

As Jeff Van Gundy quipped, "Dallas has home court advantage but Utah has 'health court' advantage"; the left calf injury that Dallas' All-Star guard Luka Doncic sustained in the final game of the regular season forced him to miss game one of this series, and his status for game two is undetermined.

Dallas led 23-20 at the end of the first quarter. The Jazz shot 0-5 from three point range, while Jalen Brunson paced the Mavericks with eight points on 4-9 field goal shooting, and five rebounds.

In the second quarter, the Jazz finally made a three point shot, and they led 45-43 at halftime. Bojan Bogdanovic paced the Jazz with 20 first half points on 8-11 field goal shooting, but Donovan Mitchell scored just two points on 1-9 field goal shooting. Rudy Gobert only scored five points, but he was a force in the paint with 10 rebounds, one blocked shot, and several shots altered. Brunson topped the Mavericks with 12 points, but he shot just 1-6 in the second quarter to finish 5-15 in the first half.

Mitchell erupted for 19 third quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting as the Jazz took over, and the Jazz led 73-65 entering the fourth quarter.

The Jazz never relinquished their lead in the second half, but their fans undoubtedly became concerned when Maxi Kleber's three pointer pulled the Mavericks to within one point, 92-91, with 2:12 remaining in the game; the Jazz' tendency to squander leads is well-known. This time, though, the Jazz remained steady, got enough defensive stops down the stretch, and closed out the game with Donovan Mitchell making four straight free throws to finish the scoring.

Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points, but he shot just 10-29 from the field. He added six rebounds and six assists, but the star of the game was Bogdanovic, who scored 26 points on 11-20 field goal shooting while contributing five rebounds and four assists. Statistics can often paint a misleading picture, so there is no substitute for watching games with an informed eye: the Jazz' offense worked best when Bogdanovic initiated play in the post or on the wing, because he then either scored over a smaller defender or else drew a double team that opened up opportunities for his teammates. Yes, Bogdanovic "only" had four assists, but his intelligent passing out of the double team created high percentage shots even on plays during which he neither scored nor assisted.

Gobert scored five points and did not make a field goal, but he dominated with a game-high 17 rebounds, a game-high three blocked shots, numerous altered shots, and solid screen-setting. The Jazz would not have won without his contributions.

Brunson led Dallas in both scoring (24 points) and rebounds (seven), but he shot just 9-24 from the field. The Mavericks shot 29-76 (.382) from the field overall, but kept the score close by drawing enough fouls to attempt 34 free throws; Spencer Dinwiddie led the charity stripe parade with 16 free throw attempts, making 10, and he scored 22 points despite shooting just 6-15 from the field. Dinwiddie also had a game-high eight assists.

Minnesota 130, Memphis 117

Minnesota jumped out to a 9-2 lead, extended that margin to 30-17, and remained on top, 41-33, at the end of the first quarter with Anthony Edwards (13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting) and Karl-Anthony Towns (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting) setting the pace. Ja Morant (15 points on 5-5 field goal shooting) kept the Grizzlies within striking distance.

The Timberwolves' main problem is that they squander too many possessions with turnovers or low percentage shots; after Minnesota wasted several second quarter possessions, Memphis led 49-47 at the 6:52 mark. Minnesota built an eight point lead, but then Memphis trimmed the margin to three, 65-62, by halftime. Morant scored 19 first half points on 6-10 field goal shooting, and he also had five assists. Edwards had 19 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, and Towns had 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, but the Timberwolves committed 13 turnovers while the Grizzlies only had six turnovers. Lost possessions early in the game matter just as much as the "clutch" or "late and close" possessions that "stat gurus" emphasize--but if a team shoots a high enough percentage on the "non-squandered" possessions then the turnovers can be overcome, and that proved to be the story in this game as the Timberwolves shot .500 from the field overall, including .390 from three point range. The Timberwolves also took much better care of the ball in the second half, committing just four turnovers.

By the end of the third quarter, Edwards already had 31 points on 11-19 field goal shooting to become the fourth youngest player to score 30 points in his NBA playoff debut.

The Grizzlies only trailed by five (97-92) entering the fourth quarter, but they gave up 33 points in the final stanza and never managed to get closer than three points the rest of the way. The Timberwolves outscored the Grizzlies 13-6 in the final 2:25. The Timberwolves set franchise playoff records for first quarter points and points in a game.

Philadelphia 131, Toronto 111

Golden State 123, Denver 107

The quadrupleheader's nightcap proved to be anticlimactic, as the Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. just do not have enough firepower to deal with the nearly full strength Warriors. Stephen Curry returned to action after missing a month because of a sprained left foot, and he scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting during 22 minutes off of the bench (he is operating under a minutes restriction, and Coach Steve Kerr decided to not put him back in the starting lineup). Klay Thompson scored 19 points in his first playoff game since blowing out his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals, but the biggest story for the Warriors was the team-high 30 points scored by Jordan Poole. Poole shot 9-13 from the field overall, including 5-7 from three point range.

The Warriors not only won the three point shooting battle (16-35, compared to 11-35 for the Nuggets), but they outrebounded the Nuggets 41-35. Reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic did everything that he could for the Nuggets, amassing 25 points on 12-25 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 10 rebounds and dishing for a team-high six assists, but the Nuggets just could not keep pace with the deeper Warriors.

The Nuggets led 27-26 after the first quarter, but were then outscored 64-43 in the next two quarters, and in the final 12 minutes they never seriously threatened to get back in the game. The Warriors figure to only get better as Curry becomes healthier and Thompson's comeback continues to progress, so the outlook for the Nuggets is not good.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM

0 comments