Suns Overcome Antetokounmpo's 42 Points, Take 2-0 Lead
Giannis Antetokounmpo was brilliant, but the Phoenix Suns were balanced, and they were blazing hot from three point range as they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 118-108 to take a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals. Devin Booker led the Suns with 31 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from three point range. He also had six assists and five rebounds. Mikal Bridges scored 27 points, while Chris Paul added 23 points plus eight assists and four rebounds as all five Suns starters scored in double figures. Deandre Ayton had a subpar offensive game (10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting) but he made his presence felt defensively and he grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds.
Antetokounmpo finished with 42 points on 15-22 field goal shooting, plus a game-high 12 rebounds, four assists, and three blocked shots in 40 minutes. Of the 10 Bucks who played, he was the only one with a positive plus/minus number (+3). The Bucks are better than the Suns when Antetokounmpo is in the game--this was also true during his 35 minutes of game one action--but the Bucks lose a lot of ground very quickly when he is not in the game. Unless he gets more help, it seems like he may have to play 45 minutes and score 50 points for the Bucks to win. Of course, that is an overreaction, because each game is an entity unto itself, and we know (or should know) that after the series shifts to Milwaukee many of the Bucks players will most likely perform better while at least some of the Suns players will most likely perform worse.
Two players who have to step up for the Bucks to have a chance are Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. They are playing hard and they are taking their shots, but--as Jeff Van Gundy often says--the Bucks need "makers," not "shooters." Middleton scored just 11 points on 5-16 field goal shooting, while Holiday finished with 17 points on 7-21 field goal shooting. Holiday missed several layups and point blank shots in the paint, and many of his misses were not close. He played excellent defense, and he notched seven assists with just one turnover in 39 minutes, but .333 field goal shooting is not going to cut it unless you are completely shutting down your counterpart, which is not the case in his matchup versus Paul.
The Bucks started the game with the right attitude and the right actions; they fought aggressively through screens, they attacked the paint, and they jumped out to a 21-12 lead. Antetokounmpo had six points during that opening blitz, and all three of his field goals were dunks. At that moment, it would have been difficult to believe that the Bucks would lose by double figures, but the Suns nailed eight three pointers during the first quarter to briefly take a 26-24 lead before the Bucks went back on top 29-26 by the end of the stanza. The Bucks outscored the Suns 20-0 in the paint during the first quarter. When the Bucks attack the paint on offense and do not overreact/overhelp in response to dribble penetration they are better than the Suns, but the key for Milwaukee is to do both of those things consistently for 48 minutes.
By halftime, the Suns led 56-45, and they did not trail in the second half. Their final points of the first half came on a three point play by Ayton that punctuated a beautiful possession during which the Suns crisply passed the ball all over the court until Ayton broke free under the hoop. Paul and Booker are the team's primary playmakers, but every Suns player is a willing and able passer. The Suns are masters at giving up good shots to get great shots. They are fun to watch, and it looks like it would be fun to play for this team as well.
In the first half, Antetokounmpo had 12 points on 5-10 field goal shooting plus eight rebounds, but Middleton and Holiday combined to shoot just 5-24 from the field, which is obviously not nearly good enough.
During the third quarter, Antetokounmpo--whose playing status was in doubt until just prior to game one of the NBA Finals in the wake of the knee injury that he suffered in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals--went on a scoring tear not seen in the NBA Finals since Michael Jordan had a 22 point quarter versus the Suns in the 1993 Finals. Antetokounmpo scored 13 straight Milwaukee points en route to pouring in 20 points during the quarter; since Jordan's outburst 28 years ago, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James each had one 19 point Finals quarter but no player had a 20 point quarter on the sport's biggest stage. The Finals record for points in a quarter is 25, set by Julius Erving during the 1976 ABA Finals and tied by Isiah Thomas during the 1988 NBA Finals.
Despite Antetokounmpo's heroics, the Suns led 88-78 heading into the fourth quarter. The Bucks never got closer than five points the rest of the way. The Bucks outscored the Suns 54-38 in the paint, but the Suns shot 20-40 from three point range while the Bucks shot just 9-31 from long distance. The three pointer is a high variance shot, but when one team gets hot the other team is in trouble, at least in that game.
Many of ESPN's talking heads have been obsessed for years with "in game
adjustments" but Jeff Van Gundy is one of the few ESPN commentators who
downplays such talk, perhaps because he is the only current ESPN
commentator who has actually coached in the NBA Finals.
During the 2010 NBA Finals, Van Gundy explained that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with
your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." During last night's telecast, Van Gundy made similar points, and after the game he mentioned that NBA games are often decided by one or two key plays,
or simply by shots made/missed, and that there are not adjustments that can change those things.
Bill Russell refuted the in game adjustment nonsense years ago, cautioning, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make" and explaining, "When I played, when we had to make adjustments we would adjust not to
what we did wrong but we would try to get back to what we did right and
do that. That is the only way you can take control of the game," to which I added, "The idea that a coach can come up with something completely new between
games--let alone during a 15 minute halftime break--is absurd and that
is why San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich gives snarky answers when media
members ask him stupid questions about what kind of adjustments he is
going to make."
Unfortunately, many NBA commentators do not understand what they are watching, and are incapable of coming up with anything other than declaring that a team lost because that team's coach did not make the right adjustments. Stephen A. Smith repeats this tired refrain after almost every game, not realizing that his nickname is "Screamin' A", not "Strategy A" (though "Strategy F" would be an accurate assessment of what passes for analysis by him).
Perhaps when someone is paid millions of dollars per year to pose as an expert about something for which he does not have anything approaching expert level understanding there is pressure--self-imposed and/or from the bosses who sign those checks--to make bold statements and assertions.
The NBA must be so thrilled that ESPN is broadcasting the
league's showcase event instead of TNT. If only this were the Gong
Show, and we could just push ESPN's clown show off of the stage so that
the first stringers could take over. ESPN's well publicized grade school infighting
among on-air "talent" is embarrassing, and the quality of the pre-game, halftime, and post-game analysis
is inconsistent at best (Van Gundy and Mark Jackson provide excellent in game analysis). Tim Legler is very good at breaking down tape,
and Jalen Rose is solid, but ESPN trots out a lot of people who generate more heat than light. For example, Jay Williams recently praised the Boston Celtics
for hiring the first Black coach in team history, forgetting that the
Celtics not only hired the first Black coach in NBA history more than 50
years ago but also that the franchise has had several other Black
coaches since Bill Russell, including championship winning coaches
K.C. Jones
and Doc Rivers. Such lack of historical knowledge and perspective is as
inexplicable as it is inexcusable. Williams has a big obsession with
the in game adjustments that he thinks that Milwaukee Coach Mike
Budenholzer should make. As a former NBA player, Williams should know
better.
The first two games of the NBA Finals have not been decided by adjustments and/or in game adjustments. Mike Budenholzer and his Phoenix counterpart Monty Williams cannot
grab loose balls or make open shots. Their job is to come up with game
plans that put their teams in the best possible position to succeed. The
persistent notion that Budenholzer does not know what he is doing is
silly, if not pernicious. Are the commentators who keep promoting that
false notion angling for a coaching job for themselves or for one of
their friends? The Bucks had the best record in the East two years in a
row, and then this year they reached the Finals after posting the third
best record in the East. They have won playoff series by taking command
from the start, and they have won playoff series by coming back from
deficits. All of those accomplishments are tributes not only to the
players' skill and hard work, but also to the game plan preparation of
Budenholzer and his staff.
During the 2021 playoffs, the Bucks are 7-1 at home and 5-6 on the road. It is not shocking that they are trailing 2-0 after playing two games in Phoenix, nor would it be shocking if they win two home games to turn this into a three game series.
Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
posted by David Friedman @ 2:44 AM
Paul, Booker, and Ayton Shine as Suns Beat Bucks 118-105
Chris Paul (32 points, nine assists, four rebounds, 12-19 FG), Devin Booker (27 points, six assists, 10-10 FT), and Deandre Ayton (22 points, 19 rebounds, 8-10 FG) dominated as the Phoenix Suns led most of the way en route to a 118-105 win over the Milwaukee Bucks in game one of the NBA Finals. After not scoring during the first quarter, Paul picked apart Milwaukee's defense in the final three quarters, as the Suns ran screen/roll actions until they got the matchup they wanted, and then they attacked that matchup relentlessly. Booker did not shoot well from the field (8-21 FG) but he used his quickness and ballhandling to draw fouls, and he was perfect from the free throw line. Meanwhile, Ayton provided inside punch at both ends of the court, dominating the glass, providing timely paint points, and making all six of his free throws as the Suns shot 25-26 from the free throw line; only a late Jae Crowder miss stopped the Suns from setting the Finals single game record for most free throws made without a miss.
As ABC's Jeff Van Gundy wryly noted, there is nothing that the Bucks can do about their "free throw defense." It is not likely that the Suns will shoot that kind of free throw percentage again during this series, and if the Suns had shot a "normal" free throw percentage then this game would have been much closer down the stretch. However, the Bucks have to be concerned about (1) how many fouls the Suns drew, and (2) how easily the Suns created and exploited the matchups that the Suns wanted. The Bucks must either fight over screens (as opposed to switching so often), or they must initiate hard traps to force Paul (or Booker when he is involved in the screen/roll action) to give up the ball.
The biggest story at the start of the game was the return of two-time regular season MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals after suffering a knee injury in game four. The injury looked horrific, but imaging detected no structural damage, and it is remarkable--and wonderful--that Antetokounmpo returned to action. Antetokounmpo looked confident throughout the game, and physically he looked healthy as he scored 20 points on 6-11 field goal shooting while grabbing 17 rebounds, passing for four assists, and contributing a chase down blocked shot versus Mikal Bridges that removed any doubt about Antetokounmpo's post-injury speed, mobility, and agility. Antetokounmpo had a +1 plus/minus number, while the other four Bucks starters had plus/minus numbers ranging from -11 to -17. The Bucks had few problems during the 35 minutes that he played, but they had plenty of problems during the 13 minutes that he did not play. He has been out of action for a week, and he typically plays around 35 minutes because he plays so hard, but in this series the Bucks may need 40 productive minutes from Antetokounmpo so that they only have to figure out how to survive eight minutes per game without him.
Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 29 points on 12-26 field goal shooting, and Brook Lopez had a solid game (17 points, six rebounds). The Bucks need more from Jrue Holiday, who scored just 10 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. Holiday had nine assists and seven rebounds, but the Bucks need for him to score 18-20 points on efficient shooting while also being the primary defender on Paul; the Bucks cannot permit Paul to seek out the matchup that he wants.
The Bucks took an early three point lead, but trailed 30-26 by the end of the first quarter as Booker scored 12 points, including 6-6 free throw shooting. The Suns pushed that margin to 57-49 at halftime, and then they broke the game open as Paul scored 16 third quarter points on 6-7 field goal shooting. Paul was masterful as he authored one of the best Finals debuts ever, and one of the best Finals performances by a 36 year old.
The Suns outscored the Bucks 44-42 in the paint, 20-17 on the fast break, and 25-9 from the free throw line. The Bucks need to do a better job of exploiting their size advantage inside. One of the biggest mistakes that fans and even commentators make is assuming that whatever happened in one playoff game will carry over to the next game and the rest of the series. The Suns played about as well as they can play, but the Bucks are capable of making adjustments and playing better than they played. It would not at all be surprising if the Bucks play better defense, increase their paint scoring, and win game two.
The game one winner typically wins an NBA playoff series, but in the past couple years we have seen teams--including the Bucks--bounce back from a game one loss.
Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns
posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM
Milwaukee Versus Phoenix Preview
NBA Finals
Milwaukee (46-26) vs. Phoenix (51-31)
Season series: Phoenix, 2-0
Phoenix can win if…the
Suns continue to be the healthiest team left standing. Sadly--but
perhaps inevitably, considering the compressed time frame from the end
of the "bubble" to the beginning of the 2020-21 season--the 2021 NBA
playoffs have been a war of attrition more than a battle of skill, and
the losers have been the fans. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis,
Joel Embiid, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard,
Jamal Murray, and Trae Young are just a few of the stars who have been
seriously affected by an injury during the 2021 playoffs. It is not a
coincidence that the Suns defeated three teams (Lakers, Nuggets,
Clippers) who each have at least one player on that list.
There
is no doubt that the Suns are a very good team--but if all teams had
been at full strength during the regular season and the playoffs, it is
very doubtful that the Suns would have outperformed the Lakers, the
Clippers, the Nuggets, or the Jazz. Taking a broader, historical
perspective, consider the teams that have reached the NBA Finals in the
past 10-15 years: how many of those teams would it be reasonable to
expect these Suns to beat if both teams were at full strength?
Objectively
assessing the Suns takes nothing away from what they have accomplished:
they eliminated the three teams they have faced thus far in the 2021
playoffs, and they earned the right to play in the NBA Finals.
Offensively,
the Suns' utilize the midrange game to good effect, Deandre Ayton is a
high percentage scorer in the paint, and several Suns are excellent
three point shooters. Defensively, the Suns use their speed, agility,
and craftiness to good effect, though they can be overpowered in the
paint by a team that has the necessary personnel and discipline to do
so.
Milwaukee will win because…the
Bucks' version of a Big Three--when healthy, and that is the major key,
as noted in the above discussion about injuries--is better, bigger, and
more versatile than the Suns' version of a Big Three.
Giannis
Antetokounmpo averaged 26.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg, and 5.5 apg while shooting
.608 from the field in the first four games of the Eastern Conference
Finals before spraining his knee during the fourth game. His overall
2021 playoff numbers are 28.2 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 5.2 apg, and .551 FG%. He
missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, and the
Bucks have not publicly released a timetable for his return. If
Antetokounmpo returns to action and is reasonably healthy, the Suns have
no answer for him; if Antetokounmpo does not return, or if he returns
at less than 100%, the Bucks could still win the series but the path to
victory would be much more difficult.
Khris Middleton averaged
23.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 6.5 apg in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he
is averaging 23.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 5.1 apg overall in the 2021
playoffs. He is an All-NBA caliber performer who, for some inexplicable
reason, is not given the respect that he deserves. Middleton does not
have any skill set weaknesses; that is not to say that he is the best at
any one particular skill set, but it means that it is difficult to
exploit him in a matchup at either end of the court because of his size,
mobility, shooting touch, rebounding, passing ability, and defensive
prowess. He can explode for 15-20 points in a quarter or 35 points in a
game at any time, and he can do that while also having a positive
defensive impact.
Jrue Holiday contributed 22.0 ppg, 10.0 apg, and
5.0 rpg in the Eastern Conference Finals, and he is producing 17.6 ppg,
8.4 apg, and 5.6 rpg overall in the 2021 playoffs. He has struggled
with his shooting efficiency at times, but he filled a big void at both
ends of the court after Antetokounmpo got hurt.
In addition to
the Big Three, the Bucks have a good supporting cast. Brook Lopez is a
solid three point shooter who also can score inside, and he is a good
rim protector (1.8 bpg in the 2021 playoffs). Bobby Portis provides
rebounding, toughness, and timely scoring. P.J. Tucker is often assigned
to harass the opposing team's best scorer. Pat Connaughton has filled
in capably for the injured Donte DiVincenzo.
Sans
Antetokounmpo, the Bucks pounded the Hawks into submission in the paint
in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals, and then finished the
series off with a strong inside/outside attack in game six. The Bucks'
size, versatility, and defense will pose challenges that the Suns have
not yet faced during the 2021 playoffs.
Other things to consider:
This is Chris Paul's first NBA Finals appearance in 16 NBA seasons. In
game six of the Western Conference Finals, Paul tied his playoff career
high with 41 points as the Suns eliminated the L.A. Clippers, but
throughout most of his career Paul has gotten injured and/or worn down
as the playoffs progress; this year, he has been more durable than usual
despite dealing with a shoulder injury suffered during the first round
and despite having a brief stint in the league's COVID-19 protocols. Not
only has Paul been more durable than usual, he has been more durable
than most of the stars on the other top contenders--and the disparity
between the Suns' health versus the health of the league's other top
contenders is the biggest single factor explaining how the Suns advanced
to the NBA Finals.
Paul has received most of the headlines
and accolades during both the regular season and the playoffs, but a
strong case could be made that Devin Booker is the Suns' best and
most valuable player. Booker led the team in scoring during the regular
season (25.6 ppg), during the Western Conference Finals (25.5 ppg), and
during the playoffs overall (27.0 ppg). When Paul missed the first game
of the Western Conference Finals because of the NBA's COVID-19
protocols, Booker dominated the Clippers with 40 points, 13 rebounds,
and 11 assists. The media narrative throughout Paul's career is that he
"makes his teammates better"--a meaningless phrase--but
the reality is that he is a great player who has been able to bring out
the best from talented teammates. Booker clearly does not need Paul to
"make him better"; Booker can control a game without Paul even being on
the court.
Similarly, Deandre Ayton is a talented
player who does not need Paul to "make him better." Ayton was the number
one overall selection in a draft class that included both Luka Doncic
and Trae Young, so it is silly to pretend that Paul is creating
something out of nothing when he passes the ball to Ayton.
Holiday
has the necessary physical and mental traits to match up well with
Paul. Middleton versus Booker should be a draw, or perhaps a slight edge
to Booker. Ayton is superior to Lopez, but the Bucks' "drop" coverage
should prevent Ayton from matching the .706 FG% he has posted thus far
in the 2021 playoffs. Antetokounmpo is obviously the key. The Suns
cannot match up with him, while he can guard multiple positions. If
Antetokounmpo is able to perform anywhere close to his normal
capabilities, the Bucks are too big and too versatile for the Suns.
My
expectation is that Antetokounmpo will lack some explosiveness and
lateral mobility, but he will still be able to attack the hoop, rebound,
make plays, and be an effective defensive presence.
Based on that expectation, I predict that the Bucks will win in six games.
Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns
posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 PM
